[HAMR] More thoughts on the current record attempt(s)

[Greenbank]

193 miles yesterday and Steve mentioned something about some busted tri bars.

That was the day before. The Strava upload for yesterday hasn't been uploaded yet, the rides appear a day later than they should as they usually contain a trackpoint past midnight so they are dated according to the latest date in the file.

Yesterday (15th Jan) he rode from Tadcaster to York and down to King's Lynn. No idea of the proper mileage yet.

[LMT]

Soo ..any thoughts on the record attempts?

Plus one.
It would be nice to have more pleasant postings and refrain from quite a lot of bitterness to each other.  If all that surplus energy were directed more towards Steve's goal I think this forum would be all the better!  The other thread was locked by the LOCKERARATOR  (I mean Moderator) and this one be could suffer the same fate.  So fellow cyclists more kindliness and respect for the views of others  'Have a nice day '!

I would not mind if this thread was locked TBH. You have the views of various people, there's nothing more really to add until a couple of weeks time when Steve's team said themselves that they'll review the attempt at the end of the month.

[LMT]

193 miles yesterday and Steve mentioned something about some busted tri bars.

That was the day before. The Strava upload for yesterday hasn't been uploaded yet, the rides appear a day later than they should as they usually contain a trackpoint past midnight so they are dated according to the latest date in the file.

Yesterday (15th Jan) he rode from Tadcaster to York and down to King's Lynn. No idea of the proper mileage yet.

 :facepalm:So it was, lol. He's on the road now, I'd have thought he would have uploaded his ride befre hand. Anyways enjoy a fine winters day riding Steve.

[Greenbank]

I'd have thought he would have uploaded his ride befre hand.

If he wants to optimise his time I'd hope he's emailing the GPS files and photos (that UMCA require as part of the proof-of-passage) off to someone else to spend the time organising, trimming off the stops that add unridden distance and then submitting. If time is tight he shouldn't be wasting his own time doing this.

[mattc]

A reminder:

ad hominem
(of an argument or reaction) directed against a person rather than the position they are maintaining.

just leave it out...

Back to Steve.

My bold - to hopefully demonstrate one of the main problems here.

(As well as an enormous irony to Andy's post!)

[Arry-R]

As regards the attempt, I make it Steve needs about 209 miles a day for the rest of the month to make his (revised downwards) target for January.

At some point he is going to have to start banging in 200+ days, day after day after day.

He's shown little sign of being able to do that, the weather will inevitably continue to be crappish for a while, so I see him falling further and further behind schedule.

Viewed another way, he needs about 225 miles a day,
[/quote]




Please can you add this month's daily average based on his 185 mls per day  (of last year ) from 1st Feb what would the daily average needed then be. Although 205 a day for Jan and 220 per day is most unlikely to happen. Let us hope when the weather improves  (Spring +) he will churn out the proposed mileages of last year's schedule.

U

[TimC]

Soo ..any thoughts on the record attempts?

Plus one.
It would be nice to have more pleasant postings and refrain from quite a lot of bitterness to each other.  If all that surplus energy were directed more towards Steve's goal I think this forum would be all the better!  The other thread was locked by the LOCKERARATOR  (I mean Moderator) and this one be could suffer the same fate.  So fellow cyclists more kindliness and respect for the views of others  'Have a nice day '!

I would not mind if this thread was locked TBH. You have the views of various people, there's nothing more really to add until a couple of weeks time when Steve's team said themselves that they'll review the attempt at the end of the month.

Unless you make Steve and the HAM'R a banned topic altogether (good luck with that!), you're not going to stop conversation about it by locking this or any other thread. The fact is that people have strong opinions and will state them. There's a group who feel that Steve is already past the point where the record is out of reach, and a group who feel that the record isn't out of reach until Steve says it is. It's the science (or, in this case, maths) versus faith thing; the two will never be reconciled. However, it would be rather better if the protagonists on each side would respect the other's right to hold their opinion and to state it. Repeatedly, if they wish.

[TheRedEyeJedi]

Soo ..any thoughts on the record attempts?

Plus one.
It would be nice to have more pleasant postings and refrain from quite a lot of bitterness to each other.  If all that surplus energy were directed more towards Steve's goal I think this forum would be all the better!  The other thread was locked by the LOCKERARATOR  (I mean Moderator) and this one be could suffer the same fate.  So fellow cyclists more kindliness and respect for the views of others  'Have a nice day '!

I would not mind if this thread was locked TBH. You have the views of various people, there's nothing more really to add until a couple of weeks time when Steve's team said themselves that they'll review the attempt at the end of the month.

Apart from the fact that this thread is about the current "attempts" ..not just Steve.

So as far as we know - Bruce is getting some drafting help on the road from some pretty serious riders...but other than he is doing everything himself?

That makes what he is doing pretty damn impressive if so ...although I do wonder what happens when kit suffers a critical failure?  I guess he has quite a bit of time spare in his day with how quick he gets the miles in!

[Bianchi Boy]

The record is within reach if he can cycle with a moving time of 12h, that will allow him enough sleep to avoid burn out and have enough time to eat and stop at traffic lights. This needs a moving speed of close to 18mph and will require an increase in power output of about 50%.

This can be done but is very hard and Steve will have to increase the amount he eats by about 25%, which will take more time. He started at 9:41 today so at his current speed he will have to be going until midnight again to do 200 miles.

The schedule http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation shows May as been the highest planned daily mileage at 230 miles a day. This will require a moving speed of over 19mph.

As for January up to the 11th he averaged 187 miles a day and is about 149 miles behind his latest plan and about 13 miles a day down. To catch this up he needs 210 miles a day between now and the end of January.

Speeding up is harder than riding more hours, Steve is riding more hours and this makes speeding up harder. It looks like the attempt will fail, but I want Steve to do it and a supporter. Some things will have to change and the first one is an attempt to speed up. I see no sign of this.

BB

[TimC]

So as far as we know - Bruce is getting some drafting help on the road from some pretty serious riders...but other than he is doing everything himself?

That makes what he is doing pretty damn impressive if so ...although I do wonder what happens when kit suffers a critical failure?  I guess he has quite a bit of time spare in his day with how quick he gets the miles in!

Bruce does appear to be on his own, but I guess he's in Adelaide because he has connections there and he didn't just pick it at random. As a bike mechanic, I'm sure he's well capable of doing whatever maintenance is needed. I had the impression that his bike was provided by Canyon, so there may be some support there, and the fact that he's been riding with the pro teams suggests that he has significant numbers of useful contacts in the sport!

[Greenbank]

He (Bruce) has so far only gone as far as ~50km from home. Even a catastrophic failure is a relatively cheap taxi ride and maybe even only an hour lost.

[Polar Bear]

... or those who just think that at present the record is not out of reach notwithstanding whether Steve says that it is, or otherwise.    This is a crucial position ignored by almost all of those who insist that the record IS out of reach and get angry at those who have not yet succumbed to this point of view.

Whilst there remains a possibility, I feel that Steve deserves support and encouragement for his efforts.   

The record is within reach if he can cycle with a moving time of 12h, that will allow him enough sleep to avoid burn out and have enough time to eat and stop at traffic lights. This needs a moving speed of close to 18mph and will require an increase in power output of about 50%.

This can be done but is very hard and Steve will have to increase the amount he eats by about 25%, which will take more time. He started at 9:41 today so at his current speed he will have to be going until midnight again to do 200 miles.

The schedule http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation shows May as been the highest planned daily mileage at 230 miles a day. This will require a moving speed of over 19mph.

As for January up to the 11th he averaged 187 miles a day and is about 149 miles behind his latest plan and about 13 miles a day down. To catch this up he needs 210 miles a day between now and the end of January.

Speeding up is harder than riding more hours, Steve is riding more hours and this makes speeding up harder. It looks like the attempt will fail, but I want Steve to do it and a supporter. Some things will have to change and the first one is an attempt to speed up. I see no sign of this.

BB

A sensible post which is entirely usual for BB.   However, in my opinion, and no offence intended BB, this reiterates what has been said again and again and again.   I also "see no sign of this" yet also know not what the future brings, and nor does anybody else.

We will know what Steve and the team think in just over two weeks as to whether they feel that Steve should continue as is, whether there will be further strategic changes, or whether the record is out of reach, and, whether he should stop. or not.   Until then, roll on Steve and the best of luck on your travels. 

I trust that I have not failed to bore a certain few here.

[red marley]

Looking at Steve's revised 2016 schedule (v.2.0), should he manage to stick to it, there will be a few nail biting days in August. He will only overtake Kurt during those days after Kurt had taken the record from Tommy and had eased off a little. Now that would by a story worthy of Hollywood treatment...

[mattc]

Steves team published a revised plan and schedule for the Aug-Aug attempt earlier this month. It was declared that a reassessment would occur after a month.

(We dont know the criteria that will guide this review, and we dont know if this publication was due to social media pressure).

So I cant see the point of making any demands on Steve or team in the middle of January. Let them get on with it.

Currently opinions vary on how likely success is at this stage. But as PB says, how can anyone caterogically condemn the optimists? Did anyone here make a concrete statement, back in January, of what run-rate makes the attempt unfeasible? If they did, and they've stuck to that, they will earn some respect from me.
In the meantime, the figures are there for everyone to read, supporters, sponsors, donors, everyone; if raleigh or PB still want to support Steve, who has the rihjt to stop them?

If Joe Bloggs wants to stop donating, fair enough; but please dont demand that others fall in line.

[Chris S]

I can confirm that Steve is riding with a broken tri-bar; just means the left one is shorter than the right  .

The bike's drive train is also looking in dire need of some TLC. Several days of riding on wet (and now salted) roads is taking its toll. I presume he'll return to base soon to get all this sorted.

Weather looks calmer, but chilly, for the next 48 hours or so. All things being equal (which they're not), he needs to put in some big days this weekend.

[TheRedEyeJedi]

I can confirm that Steve is riding with a broken tri-bar; just means the left one is shorter than the right  .

The bike's drive train is also looking in dire need of some TLC. Several days of riding on wet (and now salted) roads is taking its toll. I presume he'll return to base soon to get all this sorted.

Weather looks calmer, but chilly, for the next 48 hours or so. All things being equal (which they're not), he needs to put in some big days this weekend.

At his current speed he will need big nights as well as big days because his start time v average speed does not add up to what he needs before midnight.

Chris - you have recent contact ...Has a fast, flat circuit close to home been ruled out?  If it just isn't what Steve wants to do then I respect that - but it seems odd to cycle so far from help with deteriorating kit and dodgy weather?

[Bianchi Boy]

Chris - you have recent contact ...Has a fast, flat circuit close to home been ruled out?  If it just isn't what Steve wants to do then I respect that - but it seems odd to cycle so far from help with deteriorating kit and dodgy weather?

My thoughts - he could get some bike fettling by some soul in MK. This is just adding more risk without apparent payback. If he wants to stay away and get a full cooked breakfast he need not stay at home. There are a number of Premier Inns close to MK. Also if the weather deteriorates he will be on known roads and could just go up and down part of the A5 that will be one of the better gritted roads in the area. Not fun but we are talking about function.

One thing that has surprised me is how hilly MK and the surrounding area is. I have been looking for loops near MK (must not have enough to do) and they all come out at about 10m  per km average.

BB

[Wobbly]

I can confirm that Steve is riding with a broken tri-bar; just means the left one is shorter than the right  .

I demand to be told if anyone one in The Team advised him to do an anti-clockwise loop today and thereby take advantage of that!

[TimC]

Steves team published a revised plan and schedule for the Aug-Aug attempt earlier this month. It was declared that a reassessment would occur after a month.

(We dont know the criteria that will guide this review, and we dont know if this publication was due to social media pressure).

So I cant see the point of making any demands on Steve or team in the middle of January. Let them get on with it.

Currently opinions vary on how likely success is at this stage. But as PB says, how can anyone caterogically condemn the optimists? Did anyone here make a concrete statement, back in January, of what run-rate makes the attempt unfeasible? If they did, and they've stuck to that, they will earn some respect from me.
In the meantime, the figures are there for everyone to read, supporters, sponsors, donors, everyone; if raleigh or PB still want to support Steve, who has the rihjt to stop them?

If Joe Bloggs wants to stop donating, fair enough; but please dont demand that others fall in line.

Actually, I believe the revised plan has already been re-revised to account for a mistake in the calculation of the miles achieved in the days before the revised plan was announced, and the weather-induced mileage shortfall in the subsequent days, so - whether or not the promise of a review was in response to discussions here and elsewhere - some kind of reassessment is going on constantly.

The discussion as to whether the attempt is doomed essentially comes from a study of the daily mileages Steve has put in over the last year compared to the daily mileages required to achieve the record, and the observation that the gap between the two is now rather larger than is comfortable. Whether you believe that the difference is insurmountable, or you believe that it's well within Steve's capabilities, no-one will actually know until the attempt has either got back on track or has capitulated. In the meantime, discussion will go on...

The donations thing is - or should be - less contentious. It's up to individuals whether they donate or not (but donation does not bring with it a greater right to comment). If Steve decides - and announces - that the record attempt is over but he wishes to keep riding, then people will have to reassess whether and why they donate. Until then, the record attempt is alive and the donations are in direct support of it, which is as it should be.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Did anyone here make a concrete statement, back in January, of what run-rate makes the attempt unfeasible?

I said a while ago that any schedule that requires Steve to average 220+ miles per day till the end to take the record is beyond his reach. Or did you mean January 2015?

[Hummers]

It's freezing daaan Sarff. One of our Wednesday night chums came a cropper on black ice this morning, currently in hospital awaiting the x-ray results but suspects a busted collar bone. Postie and me went out a year ago in freezing conditions and both thought "I don't envy Steve riding 14+ hours in this".

Then again, he has been riding (almost) every day for over a year so barring an ice related disaster, he is probably used to the cold temperatures.

Either way, rather him than me,

Allez Steve!

H

[Wobbly]

Quite so Mr Hummers. I'm thinking of a 200 DIY tomorrow but I deffinitely *won't* if there's any chance of ice.

I have my fingers firmly crossed Steve's ice detectors are working.

[Chris S]

Chris - you have recent contact ...Has a fast, flat circuit close to home been ruled out?  If it just isn't what Steve wants to do then I respect that - but it seems odd to cycle so far from help with deteriorating kit and dodgy weather?

To be fair, although we had 5 hours "contact", of that, he was asleep for 4.5 hours, and eating for 20 minutes, so there wasn't much time for talking  .

He spends a great deal of time weighing pros and cons of different strategies. We talked about the perceived efficacy of vehicle transfers (he'll put up with compromised sleep if the tailwind the following day is at least 15mph) and why he considered Thursday night the best night (it was also the best night for me, so it just kinda worked).

I asked him about going to the South of France, but he was already asleep  .

[TheRedEyeJedi]

Chris - you have recent contact ...Has a fast, flat circuit close to home been ruled out?  If it just isn't what Steve wants to do then I respect that - but it seems odd to cycle so far from help with deteriorating kit and dodgy weather?

To be fair, although we had 5 hours "contact", of that, he was asleep for 4.5 hours, and eating for 20 minutes, so there wasn't much time for talking  .

He spends a great deal of time weighing pros and cons of different strategies. We talked about the perceived efficacy of vehicle transfers (he'll put up with compromised sleep if the tailwind the following day is at least 15mph) and why he considered Thursday night the best night (it was also the best night for me, so it just kinda worked).

I asked him about going to the South of France, but he was already asleep  .

Thanks for the reply...you missed an opportunity to turn the car around and drive him to the south of France.. "Wakey wakey- we are here!"

[Greenbank]

Chris - you have recent contact ...Has a fast, flat circuit close to home been ruled out?  If it just isn't what Steve wants to do then I respect that - but it seems odd to cycle so far from help with deteriorating kit and dodgy weather?

My thoughts - he could get some bike fettling by some soul in MK. ...

He already has this. When he gets home he can swap to one of the spare bikes and one of the MK team will get round to servicing the bike he just brought back.

For Steve though (on the mini 5 day trips he seems to do), with a quick wipe down each night and some oil each day a bike should handle the 1000 winter miles between bike swaps and these mini-services.