I notice the way you’ve shown IronOx starting on 5th January. ISTM that this could be confusing as his start date is not 1st January, so the x axis isn’t normalised. Would it better to time shift IronOx and Tarzan back to allow for their delayed starts?
I notice the way you’ve shown IronOx starting on 5th January. ISTM that this could be confusing as his start date is not 1st January, so the x axis isn’t normalised. Would it better to time shift IronOx and Tarzan back to allow for their delayed starts?
I think of it as a 'virtual partner' ghostly Goodwin setting off at the same time as each of this year's riders. The vertical position of each of the lines therefore represents the distance between the rider and their virtual Godwin. So in that respect they are 'normalised'. I wanted to keep the absolute times for each entry correct so displacing some of the lines back to Jan 1st would make it a little misleading in my opinion. The only aspect of the chart that is not consistent for all riders, is the horizontal position of the world record bands. These all assume a start date of Jan 1st, so for IronOx and Tarzan, those steep lines would each shift to the right by 4 and 10 days respectively.
I must be misunderstanding this, but I would have thought that the area under the negative part of the curve for Tommy Godwin would match that of the positive part, that is, an equal amount riding below pace as above it, to reach the average?
I must be misunderstanding this, but I would have thought that the area under the negative part of the curve for Tommy Godwin would match that of the positive part, that is, an equal amount riding below pace as above it, to reach the average?
If, instead of cumulative distance, the graph had plotted daily distance (or weekly, or any other periodization), then you'd be right: the areas above and below the average would be equal.
I must be misunderstanding this, but I would have thought that the area under the negative part of the curve for Tommy Godwin would match that of the positive part, that is, an equal amount riding below pace as above it, to reach the average?
If, instead of cumulative distance, the graph had plotted daily distance (or weekly, or any other periodization), then you'd be right: the areas above and below the average would be equal.
Gareth is describing a different visualisation, still spanning a year, breaking the year up into equal-time segments, and simply plotting the distance covered in each segment.
That can't be right: it plots - or will - annual distance. No?
Gareth is describing a different visualisation, still spanning a year, breaking the year up into equal-time segments, and simply plotting the distance covered in each segment.That can't be right: it plots - or will - annual distance. No?I must be misunderstanding this, but I would have thought that the area under the negative part of the curve for Tommy Godwin would match that of the positive part, that is, an equal amount riding below pace as above it, to reach the average?
If, instead of cumulative distance, the graph had plotted daily distance (or weekly, or any other periodization), then you'd be right: the areas above and below the average would be equal.
just doing a few more miles than Steve each day seems to be a developing tactic.
Day | Steve (miles) | Tarzan (miles) |
1 | 222.6 | 230.7 |
2 | 187.0 | 188.8 |
3 | 187.1 | 183.5 |
Tommy's daily line is incorporated, isn't it?
IDitto'dprefer the existing arrangement.
There's a growing body of Teethgrinder fans here at work now so I shared the latest image with them. There were complimentary responses and a couple of 'Who did those?' I told them it was a fellow Audaxer who lectures in graphs and does graph research in London. That's about right isn't it, Jo?
Steve is actually ahead of Tommy's pace. Have you assumed Tommy's pace is 205 miles per day for whole year? I can send Tommy's actual daily figures if you haven't got them already.
Not sure if its been asked or if its planned, but if you could try to incorporate hours on the bike and average speed, that would be great too :-)Yes.
You already get riding speed by the steepness of the rising lines. Similarly, time on bike is the horizontal length of the rising lines.
You already get riding speed by the steepness of the rising lines. Similarly, time on bike is the horizontal length of the rising lines.Yes I know, but that's not an exact measure, and I personally find it hard to judge with my human eye.
Steve is actually ahead of Tommy's pace. Have you assumed Tommy's pace is 205 miles per day for whole year? I can send Tommy's actual daily figures if you haven't got them already.
Tommy Godwin's distances are also on the graph - that's the grey line. The axis has been set up on the distance required on average to break the record over the year, which I think makes more sense than having an axis which changes in value every day.
Rather like the World Record lines they draw on swimming pools on the TV.
You already get riding speed by the steepness of the rising lines. Similarly, time on bike is the horizontal length of the rising lines.
+1 I think that all the information we need is there in the graph, any more would just make it confusing.
Jo
One quick observation, if you turn on the distance markers then I would have thought that the common start should be linked and chosen as the distances are meaningless for someone who starts later than Steve.
From the graphs, it doesnt seem that tarzan stops much. His days seem to be a uniform progression. Is this a limitation of data on his rides, or is this a true reflection of him just not stopping ?
The wee summary at the bottom is what I was hoping for, re avg speed and hours.
Is there rounding going on on Tarzans data ? 1,800 miles. 200 miles/day
1 | 230.7 |
2 | 419.5 |
3 | 603.0 |
4 | 793.1 |
5 | 984.5 |
6 | 1176.8 |
7 | 1389.0 |
8 | 1589.2 |
9 | 1800.0 |
You're spoiling us.:facepalm:
One observation - I tick 'legend' but the lines for Kurt and William still show.
Hi Jo
The answer is probably blindingly obvious, but where can I find the web app? Great work by the way :)
Bollocks. Tintin has been too far behind for at least a week. Look at the big miles Tommy needed to do in warmer months to get up to that 205 mile average.
Care to put a pint on Tintin getting past 2/3 of Tommy's total, so 50,000 miles?
I think perhaps he has a more straightforward strategy - keeping a consistent average of 200 miles per day.
I think William's biggest contribution to the contest will be skewing the vertical scaling of jo's graphs.
An interesting negative mileage for William on day 16 or thereabouts. Any idea why?
An interesting negative mileage for William on day 16 or thereabouts. Any idea why?
I'll look at adding the ability to move the legend when I get some time. You can of course simply remove it if it gets in the way (either by selecting theSteve'Legend' tick-box or pressing the 'L' key).
Day 29: After his 250 mile day on the 28th, a later start and yet more mechanical problems for Kurt returns his average to 200 miles per day. Steve continues his very steady 10-day move away from his upper schedule.
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay29.png)
Kurt is currently riding about 16 miles per day more than Steve. Should that continue, he would overtake Steve in absolute distance by mid-April (day 103) despite starting 10 days later.
Steve's roads more travelled in January 2015:Can I share that with an interested faceache group?
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/saMapJan2015.png)
No problem sharing Del.Thanks for that, shared and credited as above. ;)
"Florida is just a little dangly bit off one of its corners"Yes, very nice. And a great graphic.
LOve the description! :thumbsup:
The consistency of Kurt and Steve is remarkable.
Day 35: After a month of riding, William is 5,000 miles behind Steve. This looks like a deficit from which he will not be able to recover, his longest ride to date being one third of the average daily distance of the other two. The consistency of Kurt and Steve is remarkable.
Interesting that Steve seems to be keeping to a set start time, whereas Kurt is slowly slipping backwards.
Interesting that Steve seems to be keeping to a set start time, whereas Kurt is slowly slipping backwards.
As a number of people have expressed interest in comparing stopped vs moving time for the riders, I've had a go at visualising their moving time.
As a number of people have expressed interest in comparing stopped vs moving time for the riders, I've had a go at visualising their moving time.
Will you be putting these on the gicentre website and updating them regularly like the progress graph Jo?
Day42: Like day 41.
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay42.png)
Day42: Like day 41.
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay42.png)
Day 42 was like day 41. ;D
about 20 minutes' work).
0545.
Student.
You reckon?
Day 43: Kurt's day was slightly shorter than recent rides but he is still within a day's riding of Tommy's WR pace. Steve has had a straight run of ~200 mile days this week edging him away from his most optimistic schedule.
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay43.png)
How soon can you plot a Polynomial to predict the final outcome?
Why do we get lovely smoothed cures one day and yukky zig zags the next?
Oh, and for a numpty, what exactly does the y axis scale actually mean? I think the point is that at some point in late October or November Steve's line will burst above x axis indicating that he's surpassed Tommy's annual mileage total but it's sort of an odd representation for somebody who isn't a statto by nature.
Oh, and for a numpty, what exactly does the y axis scale actually mean? I think the point is that at some point in late October or November Steve's line will burst above x axis indicating that he's surpassed Tommy's annual mileage total but it's sort of an odd representation for somebody who isn't a statto by nature.
Is there anything that would make it easier? I'd like to be able to make rescaling as intuitive as possible, so suggestions welcome.I keep getting the functions the wrong way round - i.e. trying to rescale using the axes, and pan by dragging the chart
Is there anything that would make it easier? I'd like to be able to make rescaling as intuitive as possible, so suggestions welcome.
(The intention is that the point you drag stays fixed and the rest of the chart will expand if you drag up or right and contract if you drag down or left. The chart can be panned by dragging either of the axes).
Of course it would be much easier to learn how it worked if the graph could respond continuously during a click-and-drag; if this is impossible maybe a rectangular that appeared around the pointer could do?
Quite unrelatedly, the font displays really badly on this Windows XP machine. In Firefox horizontal text is illegible, in Chrome the vertical axis label is.
Looks like a 'Rolling average'.I'm not so sure ...
An overall average would become a smooth line because any sudden deviation won't make much of a change in curve direction.
The Scott-Amundsen base at the South Pole is under US jurisdiction ;DNot really. The Amundsen-Scott base is just a building that the US Govt. has built somewhere foreign, and is no more under US jurisdiction than (for example) a NASA tracking station in Australia.
Southernmost point in the lower 48. The Scott-Amundsen base at the South Pole is under US jurisdiction ;DSo is that also the most westerly and easterly point?
I keep getting the functions the wrong way round - i.e. trying to rescale using the axes, and pan by dragging the chart
Day 54: Steve clears 10,000 miles with a 200 mile day in very windy conditions. Kurt puts in 224 miles to lengthen his like-for-like lead over Steve to 656 miles. William has his third February day with no riding leaving him over 8,800 miles behind WR pace.
When you look at the full year Sunday appears to be when Steve's line should start to go up. Which in my mind is when the challenge really begins.
When you look at the full year Sunday appears to be when Steve's line should start to go up. Which in my mind is when the challenge really begins.
When you look closely, you you see that there is a change in the slope of Steve's schedule at the end of each month. Does anyone know how many miles per day corresponds to each monthly slope? Maybe Jo will be kind enough to compute that for us!
My point is that Steve has spent January and February warming up
Here are the tyreprints of the three riders as of end of February. All three maps are to the same scale - 600km along each side of the square. I perhaps do William a disservice by not including his California rides but they are no more extensive than his Texas ones shown here.
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/mapsJanFebSmall.png)
Also available: The full sized version. (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/mapsJanFeb.png)
Day 59: A comparative 'rest' day for Steve and Kurt today, with around 160 and 180 miles respectively.
Day 59: A comparative 'rest' day for Steve and Kurt today, with around 160 and 180 miles respectively.
There may be a problem with Kurts mileage total. His Garmin connect site says 215 while Strava says 178. Alicia seems to think that 215 miles is the correct total and is looking for help to sort it out via Kurts FB page.
Looks like the UMCA have joined the graph game.
http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/
Looks like the UMCA have joined the graph game.I imagine there is a Marsh Gibbon _somewhere_ in the US, but unless Florida and Texas have one, I can see why UMCA might not be counting such things.
http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/
No mention of Gibbon visits though?
Looks like the UMCA have joined the graph game.
http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/
No mention of Gibbon visits though?
I thought that Tarzan was 50 at the start of this ride, yet now it has him as being 52. No wonder he's covering so many miles.
That was my predication in this morning's post, but who knows?
Well, perhaps Steve does as he had a bit of an early start today and has done more than 90 miles before 11am.
I love the brief daily descriptions. They add an exciting frisson to the game. :thumbsup:
Me three, six or nine, or whatever it is. :thumbsup:
Me three, six or nine, or whatever it is. :thumbsup:
If six turned out to be nine/I don't mind
Me three, six or nine, or whatever it is. :thumbsup:Quote from: Jimi HendrixIf six turned out to be nine/I don't mind
Day 72: Another solid 214 miles for Steve heading back from Hull to MK. More rain for Kurt and then GPS problems prevent some of his ride from being uploaded and to cap it all, problems with his light bracket cut short his evening riding. The impact of "only" a recorded 58 mile day on his progress shows how vulnerable both riders are to even a small interruption.
Sort of.Very true.
Another way of looking at it is that totally blowing a day at this stage of the game means significantly less than 1 mile extra per day for the rest of the year.
Jo - do you 'correct' the Strava data to match the official HAMR spreadsheet, or just work with the original Strava track logs?
Possibly. While its certainly true that our current day-by-day analysis is 1/365th of the big picture, it remains the case that it is much easier to lose significant distance than it is to gain it. Both Kurt's recent shorter days and Steve's single day yesterday are visible in the full year picture. It shows how unrelenting is the pressure on both riders.
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay77FullYear.png)
If you have six minutes to spare, here's an animation of Steve and Kurt's progress so far (both to the same scale).
https://vimeo.com/122685784 (https://vimeo.com/122685784)
If you have six minutes to spare, here's an animation of Steve and Kurt's progress so far (both to the same scale).
https://vimeo.com/122685784 (https://vimeo.com/122685784)
AFAIK, Oz road distances are posted in km. Is it in the rules Miles will have to report in Statute miles?
(http://www.honeybadgerco.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/f3-770x433.jpg)
It's great that you're still doing this Jo but that downward dotted line is heartbreakingly sad. :'(Agreed (on both counts).
i reckon one leg would still be stronger than two hands. the guy that did pbp with one leg (i've ridden with him at the start) finished in around 70h. but to his "advantage" he didn't have to carry the weight of one non-functional leg - 15kg?..
i reckon one leg would still be stronger than two hands. the guy that did pbp with one leg (i've ridden with him at the start) finished in around 70h. but to his "advantage" he didn't have to carry the weight of one non-functional leg - 15kg?..
Team has considered a hand cycle -- but only very briefly - Steve's upperbody strength is not good enough to make it a viable proposition.
This is something that really needs to be automated.
(http://media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/53/7c/30/537c306bb74c7597ba89910e943abd0e.jpg)
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself postedDoes anyone have a link to this?
"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".
That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.
But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit ;D)
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself posted
"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".
That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.
But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit ;D)
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself posted
"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".
That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.
But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit ;D)
I meant 6000 miles down on my 82000 mile schedule. 82000-6000=76000, so 1000 miles more than Tommy Godwin. And as I also said, I was closer to the 87000 mile schedule before my broken ankle.
I've done my sums and although it may not go exactly to the original plan I reckon it could work.
The trike seems to be helping with recovery. The doctor told me that I won't be able to put my weight on it until about the middle of May. I think I could do that now but won't try until I get the all clear. The only discomfort I feel seems to be because I need some physiotherapy, which is why I thiink I feel better for using the trike.
That curve is implicit in the chart - just join the end of the red line to the triangular black arrow on the right hand side. The daily figure required to do so isSteve doesn't do X per day but Steve has mentioned getting back on his lower schedule after May to target 76000 for the year. So would it be meaningful to move or duplicate Steve's target red band? At Jan 1 his lower schedule would have achieved Godwin+7800 from the look of your plot, if you move the red band down so that the lower line ends at Godwin+1000 we can watch Steve's progress line tend towards, and hopefully not drop through, the revised red band.
(75065 - total milage to date) / days left in year = 56977 miles in 245 days = 232.6 miles per day.
How Steve wishes or is able to spread that out over the rest of the year is up to him. If he were to publish a revised schedule (but I see no reason for him to do so), I would add it to the chart.
I will look to add that target daily rate to the numbers in the green section of the OYTT page (http://gicentre.org/oytt)
Probably nothing new to most who have been following this thread, but I've posted a blog article on some of the design principles behind these charts:
http://www.gicentre.net/blog/2015/5/3/visualizing-a-record-too-hard-to-break
Has anyone mentioned this?That's a good observation. But I disagree with your conclusions.
Miles’ local climate is 6 months staggered from GB, so he is effectively starting in Autumn.
The ‘target’ plots on the chart are based on a British year with winter for the first three months and then spring, giving the cyclists a chance to regain lost distance and then put on some through summer and then stabilizing in autumn up to the end of the year.
Miles’ ‘Target’ lines should be slightly upwards, dipping and then rising sharply around Christmas. His ‘Actual’ is going the wrong way.
Has anyone mentioned this?That's a good observation. But I disagree with your conclusions.
Miles’ local climate is 6 months staggered from GB, so he is effectively starting in Autumn.
The ‘target’ plots on the chart are based on a British year with winter for the first three months and then spring, giving the cyclists a chance to regain lost distance and then put on some through summer and then stabilizing in autumn up to the end of the year.
Miles’ ‘Target’ lines should be slightly upwards, dipping and then rising sharply around Christmas. His ‘Actual’ is going the wrong way.
For one thing, the target lines are wholy dependent on the riders' individual strategies. Hence setting the x-axis to a perfect "even" pace was the only logical choice.
It's also flawed to describe any climate as just being "England + n months". Too many other variables (e.g. Florida and parts of Oz will be too hot for 200-mile days in peak local summer).
Then there is Miles' crazy sleep patterns!
All opinion of course - time will shine light on all this ...
Looking at the 'Overall' column, the difference in consistency between Steve (up to the ankle break) & Kurt as opposed to Miles is really striking.
Don't know what we can/should deduce from that.
By eye, it looks like Steve is at the point where his pessimistic schedule will not see him reach Tommy's benchmark.Your eye serves you well, his lower schedule now falls just short and he's not up to that schedule yet so slipping further daily.
He appears to have 'bottomed out' and begins the slog back to WR pace
Isn't that discrepancy due to Garmin not counting distance moved when the device is paused, whereas Strava fills the gap & adds the mileage (which is what happened when he had that early vehicle transfer)?
Following yesterday's announcement of Steve's concurrent start in August, how are you feeling about another 8 months of these summaries, Jo? ;)
The main issue is now whether or not the 100,000 mile record is achievable by the end of July 2016; I haven't tried to work it out. What do you think, Jo?I'll have a crack at that one if I may.
Day 202: Steve announces a concurrent restart attempt starting on the 8th August, until which time he intends to ease off the long distances.
Is this interpretation of Kurt's data correct:Wasn't it June when he suffered with severe flooding & was doing laps of a 5 mile circuit somewhere? That would have dented the average pace.
His moving speed has been lower in the 2nd quarter of the attempt - varying between 16-18mph on the thick weekly average line, vs 18-20mph in the first quarter.
But IIRC his daily mileages are creeping up overall - so I assume he is gradually doing longer* days ?
*[but with blips, of course!]
Steve does exactly one Godwin (205.6 miles) on a trip to Boston and back.
Daily movement patterns for January-July 2015. As before, each row is a day's riding with darker bars representing movement, lighter bars when not riding. Ordered from top to bottom Jan 1st (Steve and Kurt) / June 1st (Miles) to July 31st. Penultimate column shows overall proportion of the day moving. Final column shows the average moving speed - thin line the daily average, the thicker line the weekly moving average. Steve in red, Kurt in blue, Miles in green.
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay212a.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay212b.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay212a.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay212b.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/milesMovementDay212.png)
Graeme - I think it's hard to tell as his strategy may well have been different without the broken ankle. If you transpose the bit of the curve from around 11th of May onwards, after which time Steve was doing the sort of miles he did pre-incident, that stays between his upper and lower schedules for just over two months but never quite catches up with Kurt. Since he has been easing off over the last few weeks, this would take him below schedule. Who knows whether the fatigue he talked about around the time of the Mersey 24 would have kicked in anyway.
One thing I think we have seen over the year is that Tommy's paced summer months with daily rides usually over 300 miles is really very very hard to match when there is little scope for recovery days. I think Kurt's steady-Eddy style looks like the best way of achieving the record.
Day 228 / 9: Kurt rides 226 miles up to and along the lake shoreline. He now requires less than 200 miles per day for the remains of the year in order to beat Tommy's record.Is Kurt trying to beat Tommy's total by 31/12/2015 or by 09/01/2016 (365 days after he started)? If the latter, Tommy's 1939 total may be greater than Kurt's 2015 total so Tommy would still hold the record for distance in a calendar year, even if Kurt takes the HAMR record. I think Kurt would need to average about 214 rather than 200 miles per day from now on to beat Tommy by the end of 2015 - perfectly possible.
I also notice you've quietly dropped "Iron Ox" off the chart - quite right ;) Talk about a waste of statistical space!
For info though, IronOx did a 40 mile ride yesterday, bringing his annual total to 2,629 miles. I would have thought a good number of YACF members have ridden more than that this year.
For info though, IronOx did a 40 mile ride yesterday, bringing his annual total to 2,629 miles. I would have thought a good number of YACF members have ridden more than that this year.
For info though, IronOx did a 40 mile ride yesterday, bringing his annual total to 2,629 miles. I would have thought a good number of YACF members have ridden more than that this year.
They don't make much sense in the context of the reboot as they're assuming a different time of year, also.That was kind of my point... ::-)
They don't make much sense in the context of the reboot as they're assuming a different time of year, also.
Good to see the continued gradual upward trend from Steve. That seems to be what he is best at. Steady but sure.
KEEP GOING STEVE!
I am puzzled, jo. Your graphs show Kurt to be behind Tommy's average speed. I thought he had pulled ahead of it some time ago. What am I missing?
The official results are out covering the reboot so it's time to update this.The main issue is now whether or not the 100,000 mile record is achievable by the end of July 2016; I haven't tried to work it out. What do you think, Jo?I'll have a crack at that one if I may.
To get the 100k Steve needs RebootMiles + ExtraMiles >= 100,000
To get the record ExtraMiles must be completed in 500-365 days = 135 days.
Taking the 134 days up to and including 31 July Steve already has 20530.3 and that is with 2 days missing on HAMR and 12 days mileages still to be ridden.
Lets be pessimistic and assume UMCA reject the two late submissions and Steve stays in bed the rest of July. Therefore ExtraMiles = 20530.3.
To achieve the 100k RebootMiles must therefore be >= 100,000 - 20530.3 = 79,469.7.
He may not go that far in the reboot. As it stands he needs 75,066 but it looks likely Kurt will move that goalpost and Miles might do too. Steve's original upper and lower plans were both > 80,000. Time will tell but I think as things stand it looks likely that if Steve takes the year record he'll take the 100k too.
300 miles beneath the Godwin line. He needs 20 days like yesterday to get back up to matching it. Tough times ahead.
Steve has a day of battling fenland winds
Steve has a day of battling fenland winds
Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much ::-)
Steve has a day of battling fenland winds
Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much ::-)
Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much ::-)
he didn't know what he'd averaged since restart
I am losing track of how well Steve is doing under Attempt 2 compared to Kurt due to the different start dates. The current pictures give a somewhat distorted picture, as my gut feel is that Steve is not actually doing that well compared to Kurt (or at least compared to what he will need to do given winter).
I am losing track of how well Steve is doing under Attempt 2 compared to Kurt due to the different start dates. The current pictures give a somewhat distorted picture, as my gut feel is that Steve is not actually doing that well compared to Kurt (or at least compared to what he will need to do given winter).
Is there an accumulated figure for Steve compared to Kurt on days when they were both riding and, for the purpose of "getting a feel for the state of play" when Steve was "healthy" (i.e. omitting the days from the moped collision and the start of Attempt 2). Might give an idea of what the winter miles could (if his attempt 1 were replicated) do to Steve's progress?
As I say, I'm struggling to get a sense for how Steve is doing against what he "needs" to do, rather than what he has done.
He has now been moving on his bike for exactly 50% of every hour of 2015, including his time when recovering after his broken ankle
Day 297 / 78: Kurt, feeling bruised and tired after yesterday's crash and unmotivated by Arkansas wind and rain, keeps it short at 165 miles.
Jo, just wanted to say that your one paragraph summaries for each day are terrific. Brief yet really give a feeling of how each rider is doing.
A bit of all three really. You can see the programme here http://visap.uic.edu/2015/DataImprovisations_Catalog.pdf
(apologies to the OP for derailing this thread... normal service will be resumed soon)
...there will be a delay.....
I'm doing all my cycling training in the garage. I'll be cycling outside again next year.
<...>
I can sort of, possibly, maybe, perhaps, imagine getting to a place when 320km a day isn't physically too demanding but the mental aspect of banging out the miles, relentlessly, in the dark, is totally beyond me.
I have always struggled, and always will struggle, to get any enjoyment out of riding dull miles in the cold & dark.
Amazing stuff Steve... Keep on going mate.
thank you Jo for this wonderful thread!
I would not be in the least surprised if Kurt, once he passes Godwin, has a rest and takes it fairly easy for the last few days after the record has gone.
Instead of looking at graphs, to visualise Steve's amazing achievements, on Saturday I set off at 04:30 and rode 326km due North to Stockport.
<snipped>
Because a 200-mile day is counted in the 195 tally, the 153 mile tally, and the 1mile tally. He "exceeded" 153miles on that day.He also exceeded 195 miles.
If you were feeling really kind to the lazy, you could include the Eddington graph for Godwin himself. Kurt has already passed the E-number of Tommy Godwin's Steady Ghost, but is he ahead of Tommy? Eyeballing from the annual progress graph Tommy looks to have been below one Godwin for his first 120-odd and last 40-odd days, so it must be pretty close.
To put these numbers in context I wonder if anyone apart from TG on this forum has a lifetime Eddington number >150 miles
I think HK might be close to that 200 number. I've almost certainly not ridden enough 300+km days yet. There will be others who have made it but it'll have taken decades.
To put these numbers in context I wonder if anyone apart from TG on this forum has a lifetime Eddington number >150 miles
To put these numbers in context I wonder if anyone apart from TG on this forum has a lifetime Eddington number >150 miles
If I had E=200 then I'd have a jersey made, an illuminated hat made, a personalised reg plate made and possibly have it projected on the front of my house as well. E=200 puts you into an exclusive club.
Cool, thanks for that jochta. I've graphed my running Eddington number and concluded that, from my current 15, 17 is easily achievable within the next year, 19 within the following marathon-training cycle, and I may well never get to 20!
(just a small point - the inequality in column F needs changing to a ">=", rather than just ">". Otherwise, nothing shows up at the exciting moments when, so to speak, E=E+1 ;D)
(Edit to add: the same for the one in column E - I assume you want your 15.00 mile ride to contribute to E=15, and your 28.00 to E=28. I don't normally log warming up and cooling down from races, so Strava or Veloviewer would (should) record a 10m race as 10.00 miles. If it recorded it as 9.99, I would manually change it in the spreadsheet to 10!)
Inspired by Jo's magnificent visualisation of the Eddington numbers I had a go at recreating it in Google Sheets for my data. Pretty straightforward to do. I used the .csv datadump from VeloViewer to get all my rides then used MS Access to total up the daily mileages.
See it here...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c3WkBdf4T9TsZ-mM254QHBsaqt7n4AguOxeTgJPxCBk/edit?usp=sharing
Construct a spreadsheet of days and distances with day No. 1 in Row 1.
Sort on distance high to low.
Where distance is less than or equal to the Row No., that’s the E number.
Tomorrow, enter distance in next available Row and Sort again on distance, high to low. Check if E number has increased.
So far this year, my E number is 36.
Last year was 39.
2013 was 40.
2012 was 39.
2011 was 36.
At my request the mods have already moved the earlier Eddington posts to the main Eddington thread (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=60586.msg1945766#msg1945766), but new ones have started to be posted here again. Could I suggest that Ningishzidda and Whitedown Man copy their posts to that thread then delete them from this one?
* This message will (hopefully) self destruct once you have moved your posts *
Is it possible for Jo to have exclusive rights to this thread?
The last few days remind us how much steeper the snakes are than the ladders on this event. Steve will have fought very hard for those 170 miles yesterday but the scoreboard shows that a few days of windy weather has undone all the progress he had made vs Godwin in the last 7 weeks.
And, as we all know, there will be more bad weather to come.
Miles? Kilometres? What's the difference?
Interesting looking at the whole graphic - even with all his problems this year, it looks likely that Steve will beat Bernard Benett's 65,127 miles for the calendar year, which will put him third highest-mileage ever after Tommy and Kurt. That's pretty amazing!
It's not a foregone conclusion that Steve will pass Bennett's record. He'll need to average around 196.2 mpd or more to do this by Dec 31st. His average for the last week has been 182.3, so a fair bit short. Hopefully, Steve will catch up on lost sleep and the weather will be a little more accommodating than of late to allow him to up his mileage again.
looking at the visual, if Kurt keeps his current mileages until the end it's possible to reach 76,650 miles which would raise the bar to 210mpd for future attempts (who would dare?!..)
Interesting looking at the whole graphic...Kurt is still 600 miles behind Tommy Godwin, so no let-up!
Interesting looking at the whole graphic...Kurt is still 600 miles behind Tommy Godwin, so no let-up!
(Got to spare some admiration for the original.)
. His average for the last week has been 182.3, so a fair bit short. Hopefully, Steve will catch up on lost sleep and the weather will be a little more accommodating than of late to allow him to up his mileage again.
This has probably come up before but obv I missed it. Sorry.
On what date did Tommy pass the previous record? How long was he riding in the knowledge that the record was his and every mile now was a bonus?
He is now within a day of the 60,000 milestone and around a week to ten days from Rene Menzies' 1937 record.
Although Steve has said in the past he wants to finish it all as soon as possible, I hope we are not going for a Jan 1 re-re-start to match TG more closely? By then there will be another contender too.
Be interested to see an up to date heat map of the roads Kurt and Steve have travelled so far Jo! You did some waaay back. Don't worry if it's a major hassle though ;D
Steve has mentioned on several occasions that he likes to ride at night. On the other hand Kurt has said he hates riding in the dark. I thought therefore I'd have a look at their day and night time riding patterns. The following is based on sunset/sunrise times local to their location. I'm not sure how best to name the units that correspond to the colouring of the heat map, but they are 'number of five minute intervals throughout the year in which they are riding within a 200m grid square (Steve) or 750m grid square (Kurt)'
Kurt's roads more travelled
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ksDensity750.jpg)
And a high resolution version (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ksDensity750.png) for spotting those hamster wheels.
Day 350 / 131: Kurt has a 'recovery' day around Flatwood Park, mostly riding solo. His 209 mile day puts him approximately 1000 miles above Godwin's average pace.
Godwin has three records.I think Kurt's stated intention is only to go for the 2nd of those 3, but Steve has talked about all 3.
The classic calendar year record, the "year" record and the 100K record. I suspect Kurt will only take one of these .
...he passes 100kkm – that's 100,000km of riding since January 1st.
I've calculated that in 2015 I've spent over 400 hours on visualizing and reporting various aspects of the OYTT. That's equivalent to 10 weeks of full-time work.
Would some kind of visualisation showing a percentage above or below each rider's relative target allow all the riders to be shown on the same page?
I've calculated that in 2015 I've spent over 400 hours on visualizing and reporting various aspects of the OYTT. That's equivalent to 10 weeks of full-time work.
I've calculated that in 2015 I've spent over 400 hours on ...If it's not on strava,
According to Strava the number of hours ridden in 2015 are
~ 4300 hours by Steve
~ 4100 hours by Kurt (around 100 hours might to be added till 9th January).
Does anybody know how many hours Tommy Godwin spent riding?
Maybe Steve has set a new "HAHR"-record (highets annual hours record) despite his broken ankle.
Thank you Jo, for this, and for the huge amount of time you have already put into the graphs. Much appreciated, and I am sure we will all understand if you have to reduce the updates from a daily occurrence with the amount of time and effort required.
That is a very inisightful post. :thumbsup:
%time moving on the bike and average moving speeds have been reported daily at http://gicentre.org/oytt/ in the green bit at the bottom.
Both Steve and Kurt have exceeded 50% in 2015. Steve's reboot attempt, assuming he sees it through to August will likely be greater than 51%.
I think it was Alex who asked for a chart of stopped time for Steve and Kurt.
Someone, somewhere in the hundreds of posts that have been made on the OYTT in the last few days asked for a graphic of Steve's day and night riding. Here's Steve movement chart (top row Jan 1st 2015, bottom row Jan 4th 2016; time from midnight to midnight left to right; red=movement; moving speed on right) with hours of darkness shown. These are approximate as they are based on twilight in Milton Keynes (is there any other kind?):;D that is rather fabulous. I'm sure it wouldn't take too many more hundreds of hours of your hard work to display the hours of darkness appropriate to his location ;)
One thing that immediately stuck me when looking at the "day and night riding" graphic: the moped accident seems to have had a noticeable effect on the consistency of Steve's morning routine. Before the accident he was pretty regular about starting between 5 and 6am, but but he has never managed to get back into that regular habit post-accident.
One thing that immediately stuck me when looking at the "day and night riding" graphic: the moped accident seems to have had a noticeable effect on the consistency of Steve's morning routine. Before the accident he was pretty regular about starting between 5 and 6am, but but he has never managed to get back into that regular habit post-accident.
One thing that immediately stuck me when looking at the "day and night riding" graphic: the moped accident seems to have had a noticeable effect on the consistency of Steve's morning routine. Before the accident he was pretty regular about starting between 5 and 6am, but but he has never managed to get back into that regular habit post-accident.
That's quite interesting.
Seems to me that quality of sleep is vitally important, and if Steve's natural sleep phase lags daylight, then perhaps there's more benefit to going with the flow rather than making the most of the available daylight. We know he isn't afraid of riding in the dark.
Alternatively, by starting later he's simply avoiding the morning commuter traffic. I don't know his usual roads out of MK very well, but the effect on speed could be substantial.
Might also be a reasonable approach to avoid ice. If there was any ice.
Alternatively, by starting later he's simply avoiding the morning commuter traffic. I don't know his usual roads out of MK very well, but the effect on speed could be substantial.
Sheer brilliance, thanks!
I can see why Steve says he misses riding in Wales.
It's time to make a special offer - Lifetime free entry to Cambrian Series Permanents to riders who have a verified mileage of more than 60,000 in one calendary year. (Whilst I'm still the organiser) - Go Steve!
It's time to make a special offer - Lifetime free entry to Cambrian Series Permanents to riders who have a verified mileage of more than 60,000 in one calendary year. (Whilst I'm still the organiser) - Go Steve!
Why not give Jo a perm entry considering all the work he's done visualling the oytt. I'm sure he'd enjoy the 8A :demon:.
Great stuff, Jo.
Readers of this forum are exceedingly fortunate to have the benefit of all your hard work.
Can't the lazy bugger clean his own bike?
I have just been charring to a cyclist on the train who was old enough to remember Tommy Godwin's record being made.
QuoteCan't the lazy bugger clean his own bike?
I have just been charring to a cyclist on the train who was old enough to remember Tommy Godwin's record being made.
Am I correct?
1 Searvogel = 208.65
Am I correct?I believe as per https://teammooseisloose.wordpress.com/ (https://teammooseisloose.wordpress.com/) the correct term is a "Tarzan".
1 Searvogel = 208.65
Am I correct?I believe as per https://teammooseisloose.wordpress.com/ (https://teammooseisloose.wordpress.com/) the correct term is a "Tarzan".
1 Searvogel = 208.65
(Awaits with interest the outcome of Burroughs vs. Heseltine)
Refer to Arkel vs. Pressdram probably.
He keeps his consistently fast pace despite over 75,000 miles in his legs ...
Ooo. That is neat. Any chance of including the moon in the image ?
Ooo. That is neat. Any chance of including the moon in the image ?
The moon is 384,400 km away. It would be way off the right of your monitor at that scale.
I've been a bit neglectful in visualizing Kaja's progress in the challenge. As of Day 98 she's ridden (i) further than the diameter of the earth (by nearly 900 miles); (ii) 41 imperial centuries; (iii) further than all the 21st century OYTT challengers bar Kurt and Steve (that's IronOx, Miles and Bruce).Can I post your words to her facebook page? They are remarkable stats and might give her a lift.
I do have one question- how do you compute moving average? When I total up Amanda's mileage and divide it by Strava's total moving time I come up with 18.99mph, while you show 18.2.
. Early days yet, but at her current rate she would take Kurt's record before the end of November.
<pedant>She won't - they are doing different records.</pedant>
<pedant>She won't - they are doing different records.</pedant>
<pedant>She won't - they are doing different records.</pedant>
Incorrect. Guinness has agreed to accept UMCA record-keeping for the Year Record (they certified Kurt Searvogel). So Amanda is going head-head against Kajsa for the Female World Record... and quite possibly for the overall title as well.
I don't think so.<pedant>She won't - they are doing different records.</pedant>
Incorrect. Guinness has agreed to accept UMCA record-keeping for the Year Record (they certified Kurt Searvogel). So Amanda is going head-head against Kajsa for the Female World Record... and quite possibly for the overall title as well.
However, Kajsa does not qualify for the UMCA HAM'R record as she never registered with them.
I don't think so.
Guinness did accept the men's record UMCA, but will be maintaining their own rules for the women's record as Katja had already agreed the rules with Guinness prior to starting her own attempt.
The machine that is Amanda ...
Just hang on - it's June. Wasn't Kurt somewhere up in Wisconsin by this time last year? What is the temperature in Florida at the moment?Hot - her mum and dad were out on the course pouring iced water down the rider's backs.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/miami-fl/33128/june-weather/347936
:o
So many stories told elegantly by those lines!
I've lost the will to say much today....]
Thanks Jo, as beautiful and welcome as ever!
Day 87 (Amanda Coker) / Day 222 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 67 (Alicia Searvogel):
Barring significant incidents (and bear in mind we have not yet hit Florida's peak hurricane season yet), I predict she will take the world record distance at least a full month before her year is up. Her average to date would see her pass Kurt around 13th April 2017 (32 days ahead) and achieve a total of about 83,350 miles. Her more recent average, which is around 233 miles per day, would see her pass Kurt on 8th April (37 days ahead) and hit a year's total of about 84,600 miles.
Amanda posted a short ride due to storms, only 165 miles.
Day 119 (Amanda Coker) / Day 254 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 99 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 10 (Steve Abraham Month Record)It's hurricane season where she is riding and she's had to take one 'rest' day of 50 miles due to weather. I suspect she is banking extra miles on every day of good weather when her body is feeling up to it.
Amanda keeps going with her 7th consecutive day of 240+ miles (is she perhaps sending a message to Steve and his month challenge?).
It's definitely cool to have a "riding partner" this month. ;) Keep up the good work!
That's a fascinating struggle!
Yes, although Amanda has the advantage in that Steve effectively has to run the race twice. For every additional mile she rides, Steve will have to do the same both this month and next year.
whatever she does, if he goes again will his target be hers if she gets it, or Tommys, as it was?
It wouldn't be at all odd to tackle a "UK" record. Conditions are so different across the globe that I think it's far more credible than "on a steel frame, audax-style, [or] unsupported". And pretty much all sports recognise national records as well as world records.whatever she does, if he goes again will his target be hers if she gets it, or Tommys, as it was?
What would be the point of targeting Tommy's record, since Kurt has already beaten this record? Unless Steve wants to fall into sub-categories (on a steel frame, audax-style, unsupported, in Britain, and so and so), but I don't think this is a good idea!
Amanda, if she continues at this rate, will get HaMR age-group and overall record.
Anyone know of any up to date visualisation of Amanda and Steve's progress?
Thanks!
I collected Steve's Strava-data from his attempts for a comparative overwiew:
I collected Steve's Strava-data from his attempts for a comparative overwiew:
I collected Steve's Strava-data from his attempts for a comparative overwiew:
I collected Steve's Strava-data from his attempts for a comparative overwiew:
@steve_abraham74
9h9 hours ago
According to @Strava I have ridden 156,415 miles since I began #HAMR on 1st Jan 2015 with 1st (2) attempt(s) training and my 2017/18 attempt.
An average of 52,138 a year, not including today's ride.