Future Classics?

[JennyB]

Where is the next Caradice or Brooks?  Which business, established since 1978, do you expect or hope to still be going strong in 50 or 100 years?

[Cudzoziemiec]

Hope? Exposure? I don't about "expect" but it'd be kind of nice.

Why since 1978 though?

[Polar Bear]

100 years after J. B. Brooks horse died so he tried one of those new fangled bicycle contraption.

[Jakob W]

Chris King? (On checking, he started selling headsets in 1976, so just outside your parameters). Brompton? Thinking about it, some of the German specialists may well be around in another 50 years - B&M were founded in the 20s, but both Schmidt (SON etc.) and Tubus were founded in the 1980s.

[Karla]

Ortlieb (founded 1982)

[Canardly]

YACF?

[fruitcake]

Surly.

[JennyB]

YACF?

Hope so!

[telstarbox]

Although it's not my thing I would probably say Rapha. Design-led, unashamedly targeted at the top end of the market and now a well-developed "lifestyle" brand with the clubhouses, organised events, presence at sportives and so on.

[JennyB]

Hope? Exposure? I don't about "expect" but it'd be kind of nice.

Why since 1978 though?

Because if they've been going fifty years they're already well established, and a lot of firms had their origins about that time, and some are gone. Whatever happened to Blackburn racks, for example?

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Blackburn got bought out and their racks aren't distributed in some parts of the world but they still exist.
http://www.blackburndesign.com/en_eu/racks.html

[Jakob W]

Now part of the Vista Outdoors group that also owns Giro, Bell, and Camelbak (and a bunch of weapon and ammunition manufacturers, which has put them in the news recently - they're a big NRA donor).

[Cudzoziemiec]

Okay, I wondered there was something specific that happened in 1978.

Blackburn btw are still going 41 years on and I see they're still making a rack that looks almost identical to the one I bought in the late 80s (and still have but no longer use cos the spacing is too narrow for modern bikes); it's called the EX1 now, I don't know what they called it back then. I reckon with them it's just the competition have caught up.
http://www.blackburndesign.com/en_eu/racks.html

[grams]

Although it's not my thing I would probably say Rapha. Design-led, unashamedly targeted at the top end of the market and now a well-developed "lifestyle" brand with the clubhouses, organised events, presence at sportives and so on.

I don't know how sustainable any of it is though. It only takes the New Golf crowd finding a newer, cooler brand (or sport!) to spend their money on for the whole lot to fall apart.

[T42]

Where is the next Caradice or Brooks?  Which business, established since 1948, do you expect or hope to still be going strong in 50 or 100 years?

FTFY.

War in the Middle East.

[Manotea]

Although it's not my thing I would probably say Rapha. Design-led, unashamedly targeted at the top end of the market and now a well-developed "lifestyle" brand with the clubhouses, organised events, presence at sportives and so on.

I don't know how sustainable any of it is though. It only takes the New Golf crowd finding a newer, cooler brand (or sport!) to spend their money on for the whole lot to fall apart.

Drone Racing/Eventing (manned and unmanned, on dedicated circuits, off-road, point-to-point, whatev).

You read it here first.

[Paul H]

Two predictions from me:
Garmin, because they have such a foothold on the GPS market it's hard to see them losing it.  Though considering no one would have predicted their rise, the fall might be just as sudden.
Rohloff, a premium product that I think will always have a market.

[Karla]

Rolhoff?  They've always been very niche and as long as their prices remain that way, they're going to stay that way.  I doubt most cyclists even know what they are.

[Paul H]

Rolhoff?  They've always been very niche and as long as their prices remain that way, they're going to stay that way.  I doubt most cyclists even know what they are.

The question was "Which business, established since 1978, do you expect or hope to still be going strong in 50 or 100 years?"
An example was Carradice, Rohloff are a larger business, I'm not sure your point that it's a niche product excludes them from the classic label. 

[Kim]

Two predictions from me:
Garmin, because they have such a foothold on the GPS market it's hard to see them losing it.  Though considering no one would have predicted their rise, the fall might be just as sudden.

Garmin have done very well by expanding the market for sport and fitness related GPS devices, but I think that's ultimately going to shrivel in a similar way to the car Sat-Nav market (ie. the desired features will be easily implemented on the portable computing device^[1] that everyone's already got).  I expect that, like TomTom, they'll revert to their core business of making professional GPS products.

Rohloff, a premium product that I think will always have a market.

Seems likely.  Of course, it may get borged by some multinational and production moved to the far east, causing Rohloff affectionados to pine for the quality of the older models.


I'd say Brompton were definite future classic material, but that's pre-1978, and a healthy chunk of their existing market seems to depend on the image of classic Britishness.

ICE trikes might be a contender.  They're quietly and without a fuss churning out quality products that there's a decently growing demand for, and not afraid to innovate.  At the same time, it's niche enough that they may avoid becoming a victim of their own success.


_{[1] Phone, watch, tricorder, glasses, brain implant, whatever.}

[Jakob W]

Ah, I'd not realised Brompton had started so early (1976), though it looks like they stopped for a few years while Ritchie looked for funding, and then got underway in 1982.

[Samuel D]

Garmin have done very well by expanding the market for sport and fitness related GPS devices, but I think that's ultimately going to shrivel in a similar way to the car Sat-Nav market (ie. the desired features will be easily implemented on the portable computing device^[1] that everyone's already got).  I expect that, like TomTom, they'll revert to their core business of making professional GPS products.

Not sure I agree. Garmin is all-in on the ‘smart’, connected bicycle, steadily adding electronics to everything and anything and inventing reasons for that post factum. Looking at other industries, this trend has legs. Garmin doesn’t care about GPS navigation specifically, which is ultimately a fairly niche thing among cyclists, most of whom ride on roads they know. You can tell this from the lamentable implementation of GPS navigation. But Garmin’s new products are all about recording, using, and sharing new metrics, plus integrating a load of other gizmos like lights, power meters, rear-view cameras, cycle computers, etc., into one big walled garden. That concept sells although it arguably harms cycling.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Brompton wasn't actually in production prior to 1981. Before that, Ritchie was trying to get somebody else (famously including Raleigh) to make them. I first heard of Brompton in a 1982 Bicycling! magazine (USA) that road tested folding bikes, which included the first Dahon model and an early Montague.

[Jakob W]

Did he not borrow £10K or so and have someone make an initial batch? And then eventually get enough investment to start series production.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

That somebody was Ritchie (with a couple of assistants). The first 400-ish bikes were effectively pre-paid by customers to cover the cost of tooling. Julian Vereker of Naim underwrote Brompton's overdraft early in the '80s when he wanted to buy Bromptons for a yacht.