Transcontinental 2017.

[Pickled Onion]

Oh fuck. terrible news.

[Frank9755]

Oh how dreadful.

That's three for three (Indian pacific, Transam, and now the TCR). Stats and coincidences and all that, I know. Three continents, and experienced riders. What the heck?

Yes it is.
270 started this, 70 the IPWR and about 120 the TABR.  So out of c.440, 3 have been killed.
I don't know what to think.

[mrcharly-YHT]

A rider-miles comparison with regular cycling population stats might actually be useful. I can see press making some trouble from this.

The sheer amount of miles ridden, and increased numbers of riders means that at some point there was a chance someone would be hit. It's like the 100-year storm hitting this year. Doesn't really mean much.

[T42]

Words fail.
Thoughts are with all left behind.

That was in my mind on Friday after a couple of close passes, imagining what it'd be like for Mrs. T42 to rattle round this barn of a place all alone; and by extension, any other cyclist's spouse.

[quixoticgeek]

A rider-miles comparison with regular cycling population stats might actually be useful. I can see press making some trouble from this.

The sheer amount of miles ridden, and increased numbers of riders means that at some point there was a chance someone would be hit. It's like the 100-year storm hitting this year. Doesn't really mean much.

with 300 riders, doing 4000km, that's 1.2million kilometers. A single fatality in that distance isn't quite such a scary number. I would be interested to know what the numbers are for the general population.

J

[ijsbrand]

with 300 riders, doing 4000km, that's 1.2million kilometers. A single fatality in that distance isn't quite such a scary number. I would be interested to know what the numbers are for the general population.

J

The Dutch average is 13 death cyclists per billion kilometers [1000 million]. Though there are huge differences between provinces.

Also, Dutch averages are not that comparable to those in the rest of the world -- because the good cycling infrastructure means everybody cycles. Most fatalities occur in the age group 75+, that is not really known to cycle elsewhere.


But, in other words, 1 fatality on every million km is a rather high number.

[quixoticgeek]

The Dutch average is 13 death cyclists per billion kilometers [1000 million]. Though there are huge differences between provinces.

Also, Dutch averages are not that comparable to those in the rest of the world -- because the good cycling infrastructure means everybody cycles. Most fatalities occur in the age group 75+, that is not really known to cycle elsewhere.

"It's not that the over 75's fall off more, it's that they don't get up so good" The only numbers I had were the Dutch ones, which are so non transferable I didn't think it worth mentioning them. What's the number like for .uk? or .de? or .us?

But, in other words, 1 fatality on every million km is a rather high number.

Yes, but that's just this event. How does it expand if you include all TCR's? and what about if you include all TransAm's and TCR's and IPWR? One fatality is one too many, but as MrCharly said, it's like the 1 in 100 year storm.

J

[Pickled Onion]

A rider-miles comparison with regular cycling population stats might actually be useful. I can see press making some trouble from this.

The sheer amount of miles ridden, and increased numbers of riders means that at some point there was a chance someone would be hit. It's like the 100-year storm hitting this year. Doesn't really mean much.

with 300 riders, doing 4000km, that's 1.2million kilometers. A single fatality in that distance isn't quite such a scary number. I would be interested to know what the numbers are for the general population.

J

It is a scary number, though you can't take a single rare event and create any statistical inference. If it were true (1 fatality per 1.2 Tm) it would mean most long-distance cyclists end their lives in an RTA rather than any other cause. Depending where you look, the actual figure seems to be about three or four per billion km.

[Cudzoziemiec]

It's very sad. It's prompted some riders to scratch but I don't know how many overall. I don't think it bears comparison with cycling RTA stats in NL or anywhere else, simply because this is a race: that means people are riding unfamiliar roads, in all weathers, and taking risks they wouldn't on the way to work or in other circumstances. Apart from anything else, they're likely to be using more main roads. And riding without sleep. If you're going to compare it to anything, maybe 24-hour time trials are the nearest.

[Cudzoziemiec]

I found this picture of all the women taking part. Not great quality, but that looks very like That Emily Chappell on the end of the front row. Emily, of course, had a very successful ride last year.

When Canardly, Speshact and I were in Avignon, we met a couple who were doing an enormous circumnavigation of France on their pristine bikes with identical luggage. They told us that they were taking part. The lady is in the back row, pink top, considerably taller than all the others. Their FB page is here: https://www.facebook.com/SinaVictorTCR5/

Higher quality, but black and white, That Emily Chappell posted this on twitter earlier:



I'm thinking that the Adventure Syndicate is achieving it's aims.

J

I thought Emily wasn't taking part this year? Her name's not in the tracking page.

[Nuncio]

She's number 7

[Cudzoziemiec]

So she is. For some reason I couldn't find her in the list before.

[Karla]

A rider-miles comparison with regular cycling population stats might actually be useful. I can see press making some trouble from this.

The sheer amount of miles ridden, and increased numbers of riders means that at some point there was a chance someone would be hit. It's like the 100-year storm hitting this year. Doesn't really mean much.

with 300 riders, doing 4000km, that's 1.2million kilometers. A single fatality in that distance isn't quite such a scary number. I would be interested to know what the numbers are for the general population.

J

It is a scary number, though you can't take a single rare event and create any statistical inference. If it were true (1 fatality per 1.2 Tm) it would mean most long-distance cyclists end their lives in an RTA rather than any other cause. Depending where you look, the actual figure seems to be about three or four per billion km.

The UK fatality rate is 1 in 44 million km (44 Tm).  As Cudzo says though, you can't infer a rate from a single data point: the deaths per million km aren't going to be spaced out exactly regularly, so I'm sure you get deaths within 1.2 Tm of each other in normal occurrence on British roads. 

It's still very, very sad.  Thoughts are with his family.

[Legs]

A rider-miles comparison with regular cycling population stats might actually be useful. I can see press making some trouble from this.

The sheer amount of miles ridden, and increased numbers of riders means that at some point there was a chance someone would be hit. It's like the 100-year storm hitting this year. Doesn't really mean much.

with 300 riders, doing 4000km, that's 1.2million kilometers. A single fatality in that distance isn't quite such a scary number. I would be interested to know what the numbers are for the general population.

J

It is a scary number, though you can't take a single rare event and create any statistical inference. If it were true (1 fatality per 1.2 Tm) it would mean most long-distance cyclists end their lives in an RTA rather than any other cause. Depending where you look, the actual figure seems to be about three or four per billion km.

The UK fatality rate is 1 in 44 million km (44 Tm).  As Cudzo says though, you can't infer a rate from a single data point: the deaths per million km aren't going to be spaced out exactly regularly, so I'm sure you get deaths within 1.2 Tm of each other in normal occurrence on British roads. 

It's still very, very sad.  Thoughts are with his family.

ITYM Gm, not Tm.

Very sad.

[mrcharly-YHT]

I think we'd need to consider all the previous races - so all the riders in all previous TCRs, Trans-ams, and the Trans-pacific.

It is a lot of miles.

A spate of accidents together is most likely a terrible coincidence, nothing more, and should be looked at in the context of a larger picture.

4 x trans-ams 100 finishers up to 2016 (2017 figures not avail but probable another 30 at least). so something like 130x4300 = 559 000miles

900 000km ridden by participants in first 3 TCR alone

The Indian pacific - 5000km.

[mattc]

(There is a really nice video on the official site - and linked on the Twitter feed - of a rider talking about carrying on. He's clearly emotional, but determined.

Sorry, don't have twitter access here to post the link    
EDIT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYAwVWxmil4&feature=youtu.be )

Meanwhile, Bjorn seems to be leading.
https://frrt.org/tcrno5/r/26-bjorn
1680km, 23km of climbing
3 days 15hours (85h)

Interesting to compare with LEL - fastest rider at Spalding (1261km, slightly less climbing!) in about 53hours

As usual, loving the route spread. This year's dilemma seems to be Austria or Slovenia to reach CP3?
Bjorn is in Austra, while 2nd place man is going thru Slovenia instead!

[Wowbagger]

I've ben following Emily & Sina Witte. I don't know the names of the other women in the race. Sina is quite some way ahead at the moment, and she and Victor (her riding partner) are posting some fantastic photos of their Alpine crossing.

[mrcharly-YHT]

Some doofus of a journalist wrote an article about how maybe there should be mandatory rest periods in events like the TCR, considering the number of fatalities. The article appeared on my facebook feed, then vanished before I could post a suitable furious ranting response to it. Couldn't find it again.

Completely ignored that the last accident happened a few hours after that start and evidently had *nothing* to do with rider fatigue. So some other factor was in play, like maybe car drivers simply not paying attention?

Effing nob.

[yanner]

Some doofus of a journalist wrote an article about how maybe there should be mandatory rest periods in events like the TCR, considering the number of fatalities. The article appeared on my facebook feed, then vanished before I could post a suitable furious ranting response to it. Couldn't find it again.

Completely ignored that the last accident happened a few hours after that start and evidently had *nothing* to do with rider fatigue. So some other factor was in play, like maybe car drivers simply not paying attention?

Effing nob.

Thats on Cycling Tips

https://cyclingtips.com/2017/08/commentary-theres-no-simple-answer-comes-ultra-endurance-race-deaths/

[Feline]

Rimas (Zigzag OFP) is going great and just about to cross the border into Austria 

[mattc]

Some doofus of a journalist wrote an article about how maybe there should be mandatory rest periods in events like the TCR, considering the number of fatalities. The article appeared on my facebook feed, then vanished before I could post a suitable furious ranting response to it. Couldn't find it again.

Completely ignored that the last accident happened a few hours after that start and evidently had *nothing* to do with rider fatigue. So some other factor was in play, like maybe car drivers simply not paying attention?

Effing nob.

Thats on Cycling Tips

https://cyclingtips.com/2017/08/commentary-theres-no-simple-answer-comes-ultra-endurance-race-deaths/

I think all the main points and counter-points have been covered in the comments. Actually, in the first dozen comments - and there are already 75 in total.

*IMHO* best to comment on that site*, or start a new thread - it's an issue that covers all long-distance and "challenging" cycling.

[Perhaps I shouldn't have commented on this ... ]

*EDIT: which I now have. The journalist and his editor were writing such bollox to justify the article, that I got sucked into telling them what I thought of it! "cyclingtips" should be embarrassed, and their staff shipped off to the Daily Mail where this sort of click-bait belongs ...

[mrcharly-YHT]

Some doofus of a journalist wrote an article about how maybe there should be mandatory rest periods in events like the TCR, considering the number of fatalities. The article appeared on my facebook feed, then vanished before I could post a suitable furious ranting response to it. Couldn't find it again.

Completely ignored that the last accident happened a few hours after that start and evidently had *nothing* to do with rider fatigue. So some other factor was in play, like maybe car drivers simply not paying attention?

Effing nob.

Thats on Cycling Tips

https://cyclingtips.com/2017/08/commentary-theres-no-simple-answer-comes-ultra-endurance-race-deaths/

I think all the main points and counter-points have been covered in the comments. Actually, in the first dozen comments - and there are already 75 in total.

*IMHO* best to comment on that site, or start a new thread - it's an issue that covers all long-distance and "challenging" cycling.

[Perhaps I shouldn't have commented on this ... ]

I think you are right. The first comment gives the 'journalist' a reasonable roasting, and a fair few people agree with the comment.

Meanwhile the race is proceeding well.

[Nuncio]

And James Hayden has overhauled Bjorn_Lenhard on Leg 4, but it's still close.

[rob]

Good photo on Twitter last night of Bjorn and James having dinner on the forecourt of a 24hr garage.   Looked just like an audax.

[Greenbank]

As of now James has a 3h lead and it has been growing steadily since they were last together just after CP3.

With just under 1000km to go and James/Bjorn doing ~400km a day it would be foolish to push through tonight, although they can possibly begin to cut down on the usual 4h sleep strategy. I'm sure they'll push through the next night for a very long final "day" (~600km-ish).