Coronavirus and Audax

[Greenbank]

Someone posted elsewhere that there had been a study of random blood samples in the Netherlands and 3% had antibodies for the virus. (Although there's no confirmation that provides any form of immunity.)

(Easily googled: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-netherlands-study/dutch-study-suggests-3-of-population-may-have-coronavirus-antibodies-idUSKCN21Y102 )

CAVEAT: Might be comparing apples and oranges as each country has handled the spread/lockdown differently but 3% of the UK population would be just over 2 million.

(BTW, I think we're only continuing the technical discussion here, rather than anything specifically Audax related, because someone who has since deleted their account didn't want to unlock P&OBI to discuss it there.)

[Davef]

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 Edit: and it depends also on what you mean by ‘catch’, if you are exposed to the virus and your innate immune system kills it off, or it hangs around long enough for the adaptive system to kick in and you dont get ill. On that definition about 5-10 million people currently have or have had it in the U.K. already.

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Where does the 5 to 10 million come from? I ask because Patrick Vallence came out with a high number too.  I don't know what it's based on.

I have to have regular blood tests and had one last week and was asked to donate a bit more (actually quite a big phial) for a double blind experiment at Oxford which was  trying to test something around immunity, but I had no real details.

I have far less data than Patrick Vallance so I am looking at cumulative deaths to date and the shapes of the death curves in Spain and Italy to estimate cumulative deaths in 3 weeks time (average time to death from infection is 3 weeks) and then using by the fatal infection attack ratios from China.


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Thank you, but this doesn't take where the 5-10m or Patrick Valance number comes from forward. Taiwan which has probably dealt with CV better (and tested better) than any other country has had a death rate of 1.5%. Given the UK's under measuring of everything, that probably translates to a million who have had CV bad enough to notice it. Until large scale studies like the one I contributed blood to give some results, all we have are models and I can't see how the infection rate for symptomless people is anything other than a guess.

I was using a CFR of 1.38% and and IFR of 0.66%  from latest research. So take cumulative deaths to date and multiple by 150 gives you cumulative infection of 2m people three weeks ago. St thomas covid 19 tracker which is taking data from 2m people have my local current infection rate at 2.5% down from 4.77% just over a week ago which is compatible.


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[Hot Flatus]

Have a read of this:

No matter how you crunch the numbers, this pandemic is only just getting started

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/number-coronavirus-pandemic?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

He is Bill Hanage on twitter, and one of many worth following

[S2L]

They've just finished a series of studies with antibody tests in Lombardy, the worst affected area in Italy, They estimate 15% have the antibodies, so it is realistic that less affected area are around 5-10%.
I don't know how reliable the study is

[Hot Flatus]

That's great news.

What isnt great news is that still leaves us with 60-63 million people who have no antibodies. And there is no vaccine. 

[Davef]

I'm not expecting 80% of the population to die from coronavirus, no. 

Without a vaccine, worst case scenario for infection is the scenario. If it all comes at once, lots of dead people because NHS swamped. Without a vaccine, this current curve will not be the only curve. Also, without a vaccine, the curve is not even, it's a sharp rise and long decline. People dont stop dying just because the 'peak' is reached.  This isnt pessimism, this is reality.  Last time I checked there was no vaccine. It is estimated that it will take a year, minimum. Even when it is developed and approved it will take a long time to vaccinate 66, 000, 000 people, wont it.

I'd love for the above to be 'pessimistic', but unless I've misunderstood the science (which is possible), it isnt.

Sorry typo, I shortened the post and removed some words
In post #654 you said “expected infection rate of 80%”
In post #656 I said “80% is the worst case infection rate not the expected infection rate”. I understand you don’t think 80% will die. Surely that should have been obvious when I said the rwc was 80% infection and 510,000 deaths. You are saying unless I am mistaken that you believe the worst case scenario to be the expected outcome with 80% infection. I do not. The measures in place and the measures planned will keep the infection rate much lower than this, cumulatively upper bound of 15% infection and 60k deaths.


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[Hot Flatus]

There is no vaccine, Dave, and we can't all stay at home until one has been developed and we've been inoculated.

It's a pandemic, and we are at the beginning of it.

[S2L]

That's great news.

What isnt great news is that still leaves us with 60-63 million people who have no antibodies. And there is no vaccine.

Yes, but therapy will improve, mortality and hospitalisation will go down and typically virus mutate into less deadly species, which spread quicker (because people don't get so sick and pass it on to more people)... so not necessarily so bleak

In other words, we are not a small amazonian tribe which will be wiped out by the new virus... we have over the past centuries developed science and medicine

[Jaded]

We won't be wiped out, no.

But our way of life will be changed somewhat.

There have always been selfish individuals in the human race, and general it is money and power that has fortified them in the past. Now there's a risk that it is Human Rights and the individualising of humanity that fortifies selfish people.

[S2L]

We won't be wiped out, no.

But our way of life will be changed somewhat.

There have always been selfish individuals in the human race, and general it is money and power that has fortified them in the past. Now there's a risk that it is Human Rights and the individualising of humanity that fortifies selfish people.

Agree...

There are opportunities to change the way we do things. If we got rid of the football semi-billionaires that would be a good outcome

I'll take my coat... 

[Kim]

The problem is that even if correct it will be misinterpreted. Basically it is saying don’t ride or run as a group slipstreaming, go side by side.

No it isn't.  It's just modelling how droplets behave.  It says nothing about virus transmission or what people should do to avoid it.

[Davef]

There is no vaccine, Dave, and we can't all stay at home until one has been developed and we've been inoculated.

It's a pandemic, and we are at the beginning of it.

I understand no vaccine is in production yet. I never suggested that the future measures will simply be a continuation of the current measures.


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[Davef]

The problem is that even if correct it will be misinterpreted. Basically it is saying don’t ride or run as a group slipstreaming, go side by side.

No it isn't.  It's just modelling how droplets behave.  It says nothing about virus transmission or what people should do to avoid it.

“In these times of COVID-19, many people are tempted to go outside for a relaxing walk, or to do some running or cycling. But be careful: it is best to stay outside each other’s slipstream to avoid becoming infected by the coronavirus, according to research by Eindhoven University of Technology and KU Leuven in Belgium.” Is how the profs university describe it.


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[Davef]

... which when rendered @ tabloid will be “Lycra clad spreaders of death”


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[Kim]

The problem is that even if correct it will be misinterpreted. Basically it is saying don’t ride or run as a group slipstreaming, go side by side.

No it isn't.  It's just modelling how droplets behave.  It says nothing about virus transmission or what people should do to avoid it.

“In these times of COVID-19, many people are tempted to go outside for a relaxing walk, or to do some running or cycling. But be careful: it is best to stay outside each other’s slipstream to avoid becoming infected by the coronavirus, according to research by Eindhoven University of Technology and KU Leuven in Belgium.” Is how the profs university describe it.

Surely we're all familiar with the way a niche academic study gets egged-up in a university press-release before some minor detail is picked up on by the press?  It's the natural process by which misinformation is turned into funding.

The study in question was about aerodynamics, and didn't pretend to say anything about viral load or infectiousness.  All you can reasonably conclude from it is that if you're far enough away you won't be in a cloud of droplets, not that said cloud is actually a viable means of transmitting the virus.

[S2L]

The study in question was about aerodynamics, and didn't pretend to say anything about viral load or infectiousness.  All you can reasonably conclude from it is that if you're far enough away you won't be in a cloud of droplets, not that said cloud is actually a viable means of transmitting the virus.

+1

[Davef]

The problem is that even if correct it will be misinterpreted. Basically it is saying don’t ride or run as a group slipstreaming, go side by side.

No it isn't.  It's just modelling how droplets behave.  It says nothing about virus transmission or what people should do to avoid it.

“In these times of COVID-19, many people are tempted to go outside for a relaxing walk, or to do some running or cycling. But be careful: it is best to stay outside each other’s slipstream to avoid becoming infected by the coronavirus, according to research by Eindhoven University of Technology and KU Leuven in Belgium.” Is how the profs university describe it.

Surely we're all familiar with the way a niche academic study gets egged-up in a university press-release before some minor detail is picked up on by the press?  It's the natural process by which misinformation is turned into funding.

The study in question was about aerodynamics, and didn't pretend to say anything about viral load or infectiousness.  All you can reasonably conclude from it is that if you're far enough away you won't be in a cloud of droplets, not that said cloud is actually a viable means of transmitting the virus.

This however was the other way round it was picked up by the press before it was even written. Spooky.


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[Davef]

The study in question was about aerodynamics, and didn't pretend to say anything about viral load or infectiousness.  All you can reasonably conclude from it is that if you're far enough away you won't be in a cloud of droplets, not that said cloud is actually a viable means of transmitting the virus.

+1

https://assets.tue.nl/fileadmin/content/pers/2020/04%20April/COVID19_Aero_Paper.pdf

It does use the word covid a lot including in the title.

And concludes “This suggests that avoiding substantial droplet exposure in the conditions of this study and in a way equivalent to the 1.5 m for people standing still can be achieved by one of two actions: either by avoiding to walk or run in the slipstream of the leading person and keeping the 1.5 m distance in staggered or side by side arrangement, or by keeping larger social distances, where the distances increase with the walking or running speed.”


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[Jaded]

We won't be wiped out, no.

But our way of life will be changed somewhat.

There have always been selfish individuals in the human race, and general it is money and power that has fortified them in the past. Now there's a risk that it is Human Rights and the individualising of humanity that fortifies selfish people.

Agree...

There are opportunities to change the way we do things. If we got rid of the football semi-billionaires that would be a good outcome

I'll take my coat... 

TBH I've not heard football semi-billionaires going on about Human Rights and individualising humanity.

[grams]

And concludes “This suggests that avoiding substantial droplet exposure in the conditions of this study and in a way equivalent to the 1.5 m for people standing still can be achieved by one of two actions: either by avoiding to walk or run in the slipstream of the leading person and keeping the 1.5 m distance in staggered or side by side arrangement, or by keeping larger social distances, where the distances increase with the walking or running speed.”

That's the conclusion of the abstract.

Having skimmed through the actual thing there are no numbers anywhere. It's literally "we did loads of wind tunnel testing and computer modelling and came to the conclusion that if a runner is exhaling a load of droplets they mostly end up behind them."

For which a phrase comes to mind involving a Mr Holmes.

[bludger]

Always a laugh when cycling gets bigged up as some extreme sport.

Here's the media celebrating a 90 year old climbing up and down stairs, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52319318

In 2015 nearly 800 people in the UK were killed falling on stairs https://stairs.bwf.org.uk/jeremy-vine-show-steps-up-to-stair-safety/

Mind boggling. Pretty fucked up that the elderly are being dragooned in to raising money for a public service which should be funded by taxing wealth in the first place.

I will do my rides with no remorese this weekend, I'll tell you that for free.

[Jaded]

Stats have a function for anyone who lives in a property with more than one floor.

Cycling has a function for shopping or going to work.

[bludger]

Stairs do indeed have a function but since 800 people a year die falling on them, it is unbelievable that a 90 year old is walking up and down them to raise money that the plutocrats have stolen.

[Davef]

Stats have a function for anyone who lives in a property with more than one floor.

Cycling has a function for shopping or going to work.

Exercise is necessary too.


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[Jaded]

Stats have a function for anyone who lives in a property with more than one floor.

Cycling has a function for shopping or going to work.

Exercise is necessary too.


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Possibly. I'm sure there can be discussion about the level of exercise needed for a few weeks.

But what is exercise?