TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers

[Hot Flatus]

The onus is on the Schlecks to attack Evans.  Obviously bertie has to get off his backside too 

[citoyen]

That's what's disappointing - the Schlecks *have* tried to attack, but so far, their combined efforts haven't been enough to make Cadel so much as break sweat, and he doesn't need to do anything beyond sitting pretty, waiting for the time trial.

I'm left hoping Contador finds some form by the time they hit the Alps, which is not something I imagined myself saying before the race.

d.

[clifftaylor]

I think that Andy could have attacked yesterday, and done some damage to some of his rivals. The team, and the Schlecks, need to decide whether they want to win the race, or win the "most loyal to your brother" award - Contador seems to be getting better, and Evans has yet to be put under real pressure.

[gonzo]

That's what's disappointing - the Schlecks *have* tried to attack, but so far, their combined efforts haven't been enough to make Cadel so much as break sweat

They've BOTH broken away on separate days. Frank put 20 seconds in on the first mountain top finish, Andy a handful yesterday.

[citoyen]

When Frank broke, Cadel let him go and only chased when it started to look like a meaningful gap. Andy's 2 seconds yesterday aren't going to cause any loss of sleep in the BMC camp...

I'll stick my neck out and say I still think it's Cadel's to lose. 

d.

[Hot Flatus]

Femur and pelvis. Ouch ouch ouch!!!

d.

That'll be his last pro ride

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/alexandre-vinokourov-announces-his-retirement

Not a good way to bow out

[Heaney]

Vino did announce his retirement when he was banned as well, so maybe he will change his mind when he is up and about again. Although his age is going against him now it would be nice to see him racing again.

[Rig of Jarkness]

How many days in green does Cav have to win before Specialized give him a green Venge ?

[David Martin]

Will Cav really go to Sky if HTC fold? I think it would be a big mistake as Sky are GC focused and won't be able to support both Yellow and Green ambitions adequately.

My suspicion is that GreenEdge may be the option for Cav - space to take lots of his favourite lead out riders and no big GC ambitions yet.

..d

[JT]

Will Cav really go to Sky if HTC fold? I think it would be a big mistake as Sky are GC focused and won't be able to support both Yellow and Green ambitions adequately.

My suspicion is that GreenEdge may be the option for Cav - space to take lots of his favourite lead out riders and no big GC ambitions yet.

..d

He's definitely going to Team Sky - I've heard it straight from [redacted].    

Team Sky's only current viable (British) contender for grand tours is Wiggins - they're not that GC-focused.

[David Martin]

long term or for a single (Olympic) season?

[Hot Flatus]

Great effort from HTC again. Loads of attempts to disrupt by other teams. Farrar badly let down by Garmin. Gilbert's suicide attack looked like an effortto disrupt/tire out HTC, maybe hoping that Greipel could nick in and deny Cav the green jersey points

[border-rider]

Other teams developed tactics to disrupt HTC's leadout, and it worked well in the past, but HTC seem now to have worked out how to handle it and sometimes even manage to use the other teams' efforts to springboard their own

[JT]

long term or for a single (Olympic) season?

We didn't discuss the length of the contract.

Regardless of a rider's speciality (sprinting, climbing,  TT's, whatever) Team Sky will always be looking to sign them if they're talented and British.

[mattc]

I think that Andy could have attacked yesterday, and done some damage to some of his rivals. The team, and the Schlecks, need to decide whether they want to win the race, or win the "most loyal to your brother" award - Contador seems to be getting better, and Evans has yet to be put under real pressure.

I'd agree with that. They want a podium 1-2, but at the moment they look quite likely to get a 3-4.

It's incredibly rare to get a 1-2 in the Tour, because it's not easy; they should keep attacking until ONE of them puts time into the opposition, then the other brother can fight for himself and just see what happens. It would be awful to finish 3-4 without having ever really gone for it.

Probably.

[citoyen]

Thursday's stage could well answer a lot of questions. If either (or both) of the Schlecks fail to make a decisive attack then, they'll never do it. Ever. As long as they live.

d.

[jogler]

Will Cav really go to Sky if HTC fold? I think it would be a big mistake as Sky are GC focused and won't be able to support both Yellow and Green ambitions adequately.

My suspicion is that GreenEdge may be the option for Cav - space to take lots of his favourite lead out riders and no big GC ambitions yet.

..d

He's definitely going to Team Sky - I've heard it straight from [redacted].    

Team Sky's only current viable (British) contender for grand tours is Wiggins - they're not that GC-focused.

The fact is that with Cav. on board,Team Sky* will have more podium exposure ( = success) more frequently than not having him  thereby raising their own profile & credibility.

*or whichever team he rides for

[citoyen]

I don't think it's inevitable that Cav joining Sky would kill their GC ambitions. Sure, it's unusual for a team to be successful on both fronts, but far from unheard of (see Zabel & Riis/Ullrich).

It would slightly limit their options in the mountains as they'd need to sacrifice one team member to escort Cav through ahead of the broom wagon, but with super-domestiques of the quality of Thomas and EBH, they've got riders who are capable of both leading out a sprint and riding to support a GC contender in the mountains. And if Cav joins Sky, surely he'll want to bring Renshaw and Eisel with him?

Imagine... Wiggo, Cav, Thomas, EBH, Flecha, Gerrans, Uran, Renshaw, Eisel.

Sky's problem long-term could well be keeping the fringe members of their already large roster happy. They've got the likes of Pauwels and Lofkvist on the sidelines - two of their strongest riders in last year's Tour who didn't make the cut this year. Henderson has grumbled on twitter about not getting picked. Cav joining Sky would probably put a dent in Ben Swift's ambitions. And when will Peter Kennaugh get his chance?

d.

[citoyen]

http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/07/news/leopard-director-defends-teams-tactics-at-tour-de-france_184672

[Kim] Andersen said the three mountain stages unfolded as they expected, but admitted that the Schleck brothers didn’t have the legs they needed to make substantial gains on their top GC rivals.

“Alberto is not at his best, they are all equal. Maybe that’s normal after he does a hard Giro. Maybe he gets better in the Alps, we don’t know. I think it would be good if Alberto could attack, because we can go with him. We have a good gap with him,” Andersen said. “I don’t like to put a number on it – but we need more time on (Evans). He is the most dangerous one right now if nothing changes, but it will change. The Alps will decide everything in this Tour. Those big climbs will be hard for everyone.”

d.

[Karla]

if Cav joins Sky, surely he'll want to bring Renshaw and Eisel with him?

Dontchathink Renshaw might like to stay at home and get a bit more glory for himself after Cav's left?

[JT]

Mark Renshaw and Bernie Eisel are both contracted to HTC until the end of next season (2012). Unless HTC fold they'll be staying put as Sky are highly unlikely to poach someone again after the negative fallout from the Wiggins/Garmin affair. Matt Goss could easily take over from Cav in their train.

If High Road do have a sponsor lined up I'd expect them to announce that during this Tour for maximum exposure. I hope they do, they are an excellent team and are great at spotting young talented riders and bringing them on.

[citoyen]

OK, so this proves nothing but it's interesting...

http://www.itv.com/tourdefrance/2011/news/renshaw-vows-to-stick-with-cavendish/

I also hope HTC survive for the same reasons as you, JT. It's bonkers that no one wants to sponsor the most successful team in the sport.

d.

[gonzo]

When Frank broke, Cadel let him go and only chased when it started to look like a meaningful gap. Andy's 2 seconds yesterday aren't going to cause any loss of sleep in the BMC camp...

I'll stick my neck out and say I still think it's Cadel's to lose.

I watched it again this evening and Cuddles was far closer to the limit on that climb than Andy. The only reason that the bunch came back to Andy was that he sat up to see where everyone had got to. If he has that form in the big climbs next week, I'm expecting to see him gain 1 or 2 minutes on the first big day of climbing.

[citoyen]

I watched it again this evening and Cuddles was far closer to the limit on that climb than Andy. The only reason that the bunch came back to Andy was that he sat up to see where everyone had got to.

Interesting. I didn't see it that way at all. I thought Cadel looked relatively comfortable, but maybe I'm mistaken. Maybe it's just wishful thinking.

Also, if Andy was capable of riding away from the group and didn't do it, then he must be mentally deficient, because I can't see that it would make any sense tactically to get the whole team riding hard at the front of the peloton all day and then not finish the job...

Anyway, I guess the Alps are a different kettle of fish to the Pyrenees and we'll find out the truth either way come Thursday.

d.

[Riggers]

Tons and tons of abandons on the Etape yesterday, apparently, due to hypothermia. Let's hope the weather improves for the racers.