New COVID wave?

[Andy Corless]

Don't want to spoil the party but just a heads-up. I'm sure that most of the Forum has already heard about the new COVID variant sweeping the country. It's early days yet of course and we might be a long way from lockdown but any new restrictions on gatherings would presumably have impact on LEL (as well as other AUK events of course). Considering the timing I'm hoping that my own LEJOG event slips under it but I wouldn't be sure about 5-6 weeks time. Still early days so I don't think there's any need for panic stations yet, just worth a second look at the moment. There's a couple of scare stories in the media.

Andy Corless

[Notfromrugby]

Just got it last week for the first time, so yes, it is very much growing again. Not sure how serious it is… it’s not that mild, but not the disease it once was

[Wowbagger]

I think that I can safely say that whilst the sack of rancid custard still occupies Downing Street, there will be no more lockdowns. Such policies would imply Policies, and Responsible Leadership, neither of which would be popular with his support group.

[MikeFromLFE]

Just got it last week for the first time, so yes, it is very much growing again. Not sure how serious it is… it’s not that mild, but not the disease it once was

I'd agree based on my experience and talking to other people (mainly over 60s)
It seems to hit hard and is relatively short lived in the acute phase, leaving those who've had it with fatigue for quite a while afterwards.
There don't /seem/ to be the number of hospital admissions or deaths that we've seen hitherto.

As much as many folk won't like it, I think we are moving to a phase where we are 'learning to live with Covid' - which could, of course, change if the virus mutates into something more unpleasant.

[Notfromrugby]

I am on my 7th day and most symptoms have now gone... I had the worst sore throat I have ever experienced, the rest was quite mild.
On balance, if they offered me a 4th dose of vaccine, I'd take it...
Personally, I will probably try and prioritise activities going forward, to avoid getting ill at crucial times of the year. You want to avoid people from 2-3 weeks before any planned holiday or any planned event that you don't want to miss.
This is probably the new normal and it's not something I have ever done before, although I am aware some athletes were already avoiding any social contact before big races.
The most annoying thing is that I am 99% sure I have caught it at work, during a busy (and very stuffy!) session with students. That unfortunately is more difficult to control, although I think from now on I will be more vocal with management and refrain from volunteering for work events. If they can't guarantee a decent level of safety, they can fuxx off, as far I am concerned

[tatanab]

I am on my 7th day and most symptoms have now gone... I had the worst sore throat I have ever experienced, the rest was quite mild.

It was a month ago for me.  As you say, a terrible sore throat and in my case bad cough and total loss of appetite for 3 days.  After that I felt fine but t was almost 2 weeks before I tested negative.

[Sergeant Pluck]

Another bit of anecdotal evidence - I tested +ve yesterday, after over 2 years of close-proximity patient work, including pre-vaccines. Make of it what you will.

Next week, our Trust is due to end pretty much all mask wearing in public spaces and non-clinical areas in the hospital. The patients themselves abandoned mask wearing as soon as the government stopped the media from talking about it. Their usual procedure is to walk through the hospital wearing the mask they were given at the door, then as soon as they enter our department they go “Ah! We are here!”, remove mask, and then sit for 3 or 4 hours in a poorly ventilated waiting area that has no windows. I suspect that many patients see COVID as an occupational hazard for health care staff. Either that or they think we are somehow immune.

I think the NHS would have been better to wait for another round of boosters, specifically ones that work with newer variants, but hey.

[Notfromrugby]

Another bit of anecdotal evidence - I tested +ve yesterday, after over 2 years of close-proximity patient work, including pre-vaccines. Make of it what you will.

Next week, our Trust is due to end pretty much all mask wearing in public spaces and non-clinical areas in the hospital. The patients themselves abandoned mask wearing as soon as the government stopped the media from talking about it. Their usual procedure is to walk through the hospital wearing the mask they were given at the door, then as soon as they enter our department they go “Ah! We are here!”, remove mask, and then sit for 3 or 4 hours in a poorly ventilated waiting area that has no windows. I suspect that many patients see COVID as an occupational hazard for health care staff. Either that or they think we are somehow immune.

I think the NHS would have been better to wait for another round of boosters, specifically ones that work with newer variants, but hey.

Indeed

[DaveReading]

Just got it last week for the first time, so yes, it is very much growing again.

That doesn't necessarily follow - even if infections were decreasing, there would still be some people being infected for the first time.

[hellymedic]

I think that I can safely say that whilst the sack of rancid custard still occupies Downing Street, there will be no more lockdowns. Such policies would imply Policies, and Responsible Leadership, neither of which would be popular with his support group.

Sad but true IMHO.

You'll need to judge what risks you can take...

[rafletcher]

Just got it last week for the first time, so yes, it is very much growing again.

That doesn't necessarily follow - even if infections were decreasing, there would still be some people being infected for the first time.

Indeed. My wife has yet to succumb.

[Polar Bear]

Neither of us in the Bear-o-Drome has tested positive but we have had a couple of periods of illness and a few sniffles and light-headed news days in the past six months.

We know plenty of people who have succumbed recently.

[ken66]

Three weeks ago I returned from riding LEJOG over 14 days, averaging 70 miles a day. The day after my return I felt tired, not surprising I thought at my age (72). For the next 2 days I felt totally drained & worse than I ever remember feeling in my life. Eventually it was suggested that I took LFT test. Bingo, I finally realised why I felt so bad even before I took the test which was positive. I had convinced myself that the fatigue was caused by my extreme cycling effort and closed my mind to any other possibility. I had an extremely sore throat for a couple of days before it improved. Last Sunday, two weeks after the first symptoms appeared, I tried a 15 mile ride which went ok. Out of 19 riders on my LEJOG tour 5 succumbed to Covid

[Ajax Bay]

. . . just a heads-up. I'm sure that most of the Forum has already heard about the new COVID variant sweeping the country. It's early days yet of course and we might be a long way from lockdown
 I'm hoping that my own LEJOG event slips under it but I wouldn't be sure about 5-6 weeks time.
. . . I don't think there's any need for panic stations yet, just worth a second look at the moment.
There's a couple of scare stories in the media.
Andy Corless

Is not a new variant: all are Omicron. 90% of the estimated infections are the 'old' BA2 sub-variant (with about A4 and BA5 <4% each) (end May) but combined BA4 and BA5, and BA2 now about half and half in estimated prevalence (ONS data).
Have to say commenting "there's no need to panic" does seem a bit Dad's Army "Don't panic, Mr Mainwairing!" I guess better than "We're doomed, I tell 'ee; doomed!" Please remember, Andy, that nationals of other countries read this and don't necessarily appreciate (as in 'get') British humour.
To help estimate how "long a way [the UK might be] "from lockdown" I offer these figures: English hospital beds occupied (15 Jun) <5k of whom more than half are in hospital with rather than because of COVID-19. This occupancy rate is <30% of the peak figures in Jan and Apr 2022, when there was no lockdown. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
Talk of 'lockdowns' is just scaremongering: and we can rely on the mass media to fan that.

[Andy Corless]

It's highly unlikely the UK would go back into any sort of lockdown but the concern would be potential restrictions on people gatherings, which would obviously jeopardize the event even if they were limited to 30/50 people which has been the case previously.  I'm sure everything will be alright, just a heads-up.

I'll be riding the event for the fourth time, starting at 09:00 am!

Andy Corless

[Ajax Bay]

It's highly unlikely the UK would go back into any sort of lockdown but the concern would be potential restrictions on people gatherings, which would obviously jeopardize the event even if they were limited to 30/50 people which has been the case previously.  I'm sure everything will be alright, just a heads-up.

I'll be riding the event for the fourth time, starting at 09:00 am!

Andy Corless

Looking forward to the XXII Commonwealth Games too.

[Hot Flatus]

There won't be another lockdown, unless the virus becomes more harmful and able to evade immunity. I would have thought the biggest potential impact on LEL would be riders having to withdraw through previous illness.

Certainly after nasty covid experience last autumn I started dragging myself together and working up to riding 200ks every fortnight by March. Then I got covid again and even though the acute illness was just a nasty cold it has left me with what feels like constant fatigue for 3 months. I commute everyday, but anything else has had to go.

[Redlight]

I would have thought the biggest potential impact on LEL would be riders having to withdraw through previous illness.

Or large numbers of volunteers having to withdraw, either because they have succumbed or through concerns over spending three or four days in close proximity to a potential travelling virus.

[Notfromrugby]

I would have thought the biggest potential impact on LEL would be riders having to withdraw through previous illness.

Or large numbers of volunteers having to withdraw, either because they have succumbed or through concerns over spending three or four days in close proximity to a potential travelling virus.

This. I withdrew from the volunteers pool some time last year. I haven’t regretted the decision… sleep deprivation, general lack of care from very tired riders, possibly crammed conditions at times… perfect spreading environment

[MikeFromLFE]

Or large numbers of volunteers having to withdraw, either because they have succumbed or through concerns over spending three or four days in close proximity to a potential travelling virus.

I get the impression that there are only just enough volunteers as it is - I've seen some calls for additional volunteers but I don't know if that's belt & braces or what.

Certainly if the volunteer numbers take a hit then the way the controls function will be severely affected, which will impact not only rider satisfaction, but the performance of /some/ riders.

I have already decided not to sleep in the control dorm - at my age I need my bed and my own space. But, with the virus in mind, having booked a B&B near the control increasingly seems like a sensible investment.

[alwyn]

Rider and volunteer numbers are both just fine. We have way more volunteers than in 2017. For example, this time in 2017 we had 9 volunteers registered at Moffat. This time it’s closer to 30.

The only Covid hiccup we’ve had since January is one school’s council deciding to not cater for us because of covid. The catering team were so disgusted by this jobworthiness they have commandeered the kitchen and will do the catering regardless.

[Andy64]

How are they getting the figures for new infections, given that there won't be anywhere near the amount of testing done as there was this time last year?
Genuine question.

[trundle]

We get the figures from three separate ways:
* The gold standard is regular randomly sampled tests from the ONS: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/17june2022
* Zoe Covid symptom tracker: Gives near realtime high accuracy estimates based on 100k's of people still submitting daily symptoms.
* We still test quite a lot - and you can use the percentage of positive tests to easily spot new waves because the percentage of positive tests will climb.

Having said all that - hospital admissions are very low and the expectation is the BA.X variants are also low severity in our population as we have high immunity from acute illness from natural infection and very high vaccination rates.

[Ivo]

One of the other options for the general studies is wast water tests. The amount of Covid particles in waste water is tested, the percentage of Covid cases can be deducted from this.

That said, I just got my 2nd booster today. So that brings this years tally on 1 booster in january, 1 Covid infection in march and 1 booster in june. Plus the original Johnson jab. I guess that I'm protected enough now for august .

[Andy64]