Author Topic: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149  (Read 5414 times)

Wowbagger

  • Dez's butler
    • Musings of a Gentleman Cyclist
Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #25 on: January 03, 2016, 08:44:42 pm »
If I gave any impression that I wasn't rooting for Steve 100% then let me correct that now. I am, and I have been all year. I would love to be proved wrong in this case.
Whaddawewant? Gratification! Whendowewannit? Not just yet...

Bianchi Boy

  • Cycling is my doctor
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Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #26 on: January 03, 2016, 08:50:31 pm »
If I gave any impression that I wasn't rooting for Steve 100% then let me correct that now. I am, and I have been all year. I would love to be proved wrong in this case.
Me too
BB
SRx11 - in 11 years

SoreTween

  • Most of me survived the Pennine Bridleway.
Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #27 on: January 03, 2016, 09:24:01 pm »
Yes, we all know how much Steve has to do to get back on track, and we've said so over and over in the 'thoughts' thread. No point in saying it yet again. Whatever Steve, Idai and the team are thinking, and what numbers they're using, they've said that an assessment will be made at the end of this month. Ok, fair enough - so let's let them get on with it and we can all update the conversation at that time. If they're no nearer achieving the required miles, we can once again urge a break and regroup. If the miles are coming, as Steve believes they will, then let's get behind him and give him whatever morale lift we can.
:thumbsup:
2017 targets: not worth worrying about a while yet - just ride.

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #28 on: January 03, 2016, 09:25:58 pm »
I don't think the team is looking at the numbers required in any meaningful way. They didn't seem to be doing so before the crash and they don't seem to be doing so now. Even Idai's interview didn't actually say that they'd pull the pin on Steve if he was even further behind at the end of January.

Everything seems to be relying on Steve's assessments and we know they are hopelessly optimistic. Even after breaking his ankle, he thought there was still a decent chance of breaking Tommy's record when it was obvious to everybody else that it had become impossible.

I respect your thinking on all of this.

However, I think Steve’s assessments during the post-leg fracture period were a reflection of his way of maintaining a positive outlook. In fact the impact of the injury and the one-legged recovery were much greater than could have been predicted - to the extent that if it had not occurred Steve may well have already broken the record. There were also other setbacks later in the year. These setbacks could be once-only events in that there is nothing to say that they will repeat themselves. He has also, during that time, made a profound change to his diet which should pay dividends in the longer run. In addition, there does seem to have been a change in his attitude to headwind avoidance via lifts.

So I can understand that Steve may feel that all in all, he has not had a fair crack of the whip yet and that he has not been able to give of his best. The record remains achievable.

Go Steve!

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #29 on: January 03, 2016, 10:17:58 pm »
He's off up past the Goodbye Yorkshire Christmas Pudding route this morning. Travelodge M18/M180 for tonight?

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #30 on: January 03, 2016, 11:58:47 pm »
Goole Premier Inn at 23:45 with pretty poor weather all day.

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #31 on: January 04, 2016, 11:50:55 am »
<SNIP> In fact the impact of the injury and the one-legged recovery were much greater than could have been predicted - to the extent that if it had not occurred Steve may well have already broken the record. There were also other setbacks later in the year. These setbacks could be once-only events in that there is nothing to say that they will repeat themselves. He has also, during that time, made a profound change to his diet which should pay dividends in the longer run. In addition, there does seem to have been a change in his attitude to headwind avoidance via lifts.

So I can understand that Steve may feel that all in all, he has not had a fair crack of the whip yet and that he has not been able to give of his best. The record remains achievable.

Go Steve!

Before the crash, Steve had already hit his 'maximum riding hours in a day' limit and hadn't yet started to gain ground on his deficit to Tommy. Granted, his average speed was finally starting to lift a little at the end of March but the further average speed increase he needed to take the record was still significant. It was doubtful at that stage whether Steve could have taken the record, even if he avoided all illness or injury for the remainder of the year.

Multiple people have run the numbers necessary for Steve to take the record in this attempt and they all say the same thing. He needs to ride for more hours, he needs to ride significantly faster and he needs to do it now.

I do agree that Steve hasn't been able to give of his best and he may yet take the record but it won't be within this attempt. His only chance to do so is to stop, recover, regain his speed and tackle the record again, taking account of hard-won lessons.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #32 on: January 04, 2016, 07:14:25 pm »
I'm bored of hearing the same thing in hundreds of different ways...it doesn't add anything to what's already been said.
DJR is my 26 year old bike, custom built for me by Dave Russell & heavily refurbished in 2009. My other bike's are a carbon Beone parts bin special built in 2011 and a Brompton S2L for the commute:-D

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #33 on: January 04, 2016, 07:16:24 pm »
Kind of like 'Go Steve'?
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

mattc

  • "Hannibal"
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Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #34 on: January 04, 2016, 07:20:57 pm »
Kind of like 'Go Steve'?
You've got to be fairly bitter to have that reaction to words of encouragement.
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #35 on: January 04, 2016, 07:21:20 pm »
At least that's only two words.
DJR is my 26 year old bike, custom built for me by Dave Russell & heavily refurbished in 2009. My other bike's are a carbon Beone parts bin special built in 2011 and a Brompton S2L for the commute:-D

Polar Bear

  • aka Michael
Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #36 on: January 04, 2016, 07:29:28 pm »
I'm very pleased to see that folk in general have become more positive since a couple of pieces of info have come out of the camp.   

I'm backing Steve to have a good January and for the record attempt to remain live and kicking.   :thumbsup:

< Glass half full kinda bear! >
Professional McKenzie Friend and Paralegal.          goodem2@gmail.com     07802 709337.

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #37 on: January 04, 2016, 07:35:33 pm »
Kind of like 'Go Steve'?
You've got to be fairly bitter to have that reaction to words of encouragement.

No. Just bored with those folk who actually choose not to use their intelligence. The Go Steve thing was to catch their attention.

I'll let the train continue to crash in slow motion now. What a waste.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #38 on: January 04, 2016, 07:51:18 pm »
Is there an opposite of 'kibitzer'?  :-\
The time for encouragement has passed.  Now is the time to dispassionately look at facts and numbers.

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #39 on: January 04, 2016, 08:14:48 pm »
Kind of like 'Go Steve'?



Could not agree MORE  and well posted

Polar Bear

  • aka Michael
Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #40 on: January 04, 2016, 08:23:17 pm »
Is there an opposite of 'kibitzer'?  :-\
The time for encouragement has passed.  Now is the time to dispassionately look at facts and numbers.

I cannot help but disagree but I'm not wasting my life in a bunfight over it.

If you have followed all the threads, that's what is reported from the Idai interview in the doom and gloom thread.

The end of the world is nigh...   
Professional McKenzie Friend and Paralegal.          goodem2@gmail.com     07802 709337.

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #41 on: January 04, 2016, 08:45:03 pm »
Is there an opposite of 'kibitzer'?  :-\
The time for encouragement has passed.  Now is the time to dispassionately look at facts and numbers.

I cannot help but disagree but I'm not wasting my life in a bunfight over it.

If you have followed all the threads, that's what is reported from the Idai interview in the doom and gloom thread.

The end of the world is nigh...

Fact and numbers were precisely what was missing from the Idai interview linked to by jackt, or in the CTC interview.

There's assertion - and it's always going to be assertion - but there wasn't really anything from which you could conclude that Idai or other team members have a grasp on the actual daily numbers needed, or had done any analysis to support their assertion that Steve will be able to increase his daily distances to those which are necessary.

The only specific daily distances Idai mentions in the CTC piece - granted, as casual references - seem to raise more questions than they answer, about how they've been derived and what they imply.

I'd still love to see Steve take the prize, but I just hope that this current effort isn't going to leave him broken.

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #42 on: January 04, 2016, 09:07:51 pm »
It's not that simple a binary choice.

I'd encourage Steve although (and this is a personal choice, everyone is free to do what they want) I don't know what value, if any, posting "Go Steve" on a thread on an Internet forum actually has. He certainly doesn't read every single thread, if any, and if he does he's (a) possibly wasting valuable time, and (b) going to encounter plenty of negative comments that won't help him. More than likely the gist of things [only the postive stuff if they have any sense] is reported back to him by his team who are reading this and I doubt this includes a list of people who've said "Go Steve" on each thread.

But, despite rooting for him, I don't think he's got much chance at all of beating the record this time round (I'll be more than happy to be proven wrong), but I don't think he should stop yet. My logic goes something like this:-

If he's not going to restart again in the future then me may as well carry on. I'm not sure what my criteria for pulling the plug would be but obviously it's somewhere between the 219 miles per day required (as it is roughly now and I think he should continue) and 300 miles per day (which he obviously couldn't do), but exactly where I don't know. My guess is it's a bit more complicated than that and will be based on whether his start times get later and later, or his average speed starts to drop, or the stopped time during the rides start to get longer and longer, all of which point to the cumulative fatigue becoming too much.

If he's going to restart again then the most obvious date for a restart (in my mind at least) is 1st Jan 2017 to keep the 'calendar year' purists happy and is more in the spirit of the original Year challenge, this also gives himself time to wind down, rest, recover, replan, test new things, and train properly even if he finishes the current attempt on 6th August 2016 I think ~145 days is enough time to do this before he goes again.

Whether or not he has the head/legs for another 7 months of riding, 5 months of some relief (but still some reasonable hard work to give him self the best shot of a new record) and then another full 12 months on is something that only Steve can answer. There's also the question of funding for those 24 months, especially if the replan includes things that cost more (a 24/7 aide, an RV or just lifts to the start of a tailwind) but despite FB's reports on funds we're pretty much in the dark as to what the finances are like (and predicting the future is nigh on impossible).
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

Wowbagger

  • Dez's butler
    • Musings of a Gentleman Cyclist
Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #43 on: January 06, 2016, 04:05:31 pm »
Is there an opposite of 'kibitzer'?  :-\
The time for encouragement has passed.  Now is the time to dispassionately look at facts and numbers.

I think it's "kibitzer" that you want.

In a very-long-distance cycle race, it's trivially easy to do the sums and come to a conclusion. In chess, which is the only other forum in which I have heard the expression, kibitzers ask the grandmasters, during the game's post-mortem, questions about why they chose one move over another. It's a genuine desire for more understanding and the answer is very often quite complex.
Whaddawewant? Gratification! Whendowewannit? Not just yet...

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #44 on: January 06, 2016, 04:18:43 pm »
Aha, I lazily assumed that the term was being used to refer to (my and others') perceived cynicism and negativity.  You're absolutely right - I didn't realise it referred to all types of back-seat driving.

Re: 3rd January 2016 - Teethgrinder Day 149
« Reply #45 on: January 06, 2016, 04:21:21 pm »
Used in bridge too - I hadn't heard it used for chess spectators/amateur analysts until Wow brought it up in another thread a wee while ago.