[HAMR] Tactics was Re: Visualizing the OYTT

[matthew]

One thing you can see from the graphs is when Steve stops for second breakfast / lunch while Kurt's rides don't seem to have the same interruptions. Do we know if Kurt is eating on the go?

[Climberruss]

I'm finding myself increasingly wondering about Steves tactics. Whilst I fully appreciate (and agree with) the "start slow and build up " approach, I do wonder if given that he now has over 6000 miles under his belt, if he should start to put a bit more effort in, not neccessarliy more miles but a little bit faster to enable him to have slightly longer rest periods. Obviously he can still control his output as he is riding to a heart rate. If however he upped that heartrate by say 10bpm, that surely would allow him to complete his daily mileage target a bit quicker and thus get more rest.

Moving this argument forward, surley there must be some way of calculating an input v reward curve to work out the optimum input (i.e. effort) before the increased fatigue outways that increased effort. That could be trialed now as he is riding a fairly consistent daily mileage. This would then give a more accurate idea of how much effort can safely be put in later when he starts to increase not only affort but time in the saddle, but also the mileage.
Information and feedback form a few measured tests now may help to avoid over doing it later and suffering the consequences.

This is meant purely as a discussion point...the views of the YACF massive are welcomed...

[red marley]

Possibly a discussion for a different thread, but it is worth remembering that Steve is already exceeding a plan that itself would result in him bettering Tommy's record by over 12,000 miles. Steve has plenty of experience of lengthening his days and riding speed and has planned to do so as the winter ends.

The only thing that might have changed is that Kurt is riding further than his published schedule. What is uncertain, to me at least, is how much extra capacity Kurt will have to lengthen his daily distance. His fitness may improve slightly in the coming months, but it is clear from his performance so far that he is already in very good condition and his current environmental conditions, with the exception of number of daylight hours, will not improve.

[Climberruss]

@Jo...I'm quite happy for it to be moved to another thread. I wasn't sure which one to put it in.

At this point in time, I was thinking more about Steve possible shortening his days by riding a little harder. Surely a little more rest would help to keep him fresher for when the better weather comes?

[Vince]

Steve has already said elsewhere that he is tempering his speed because of concerns about ice. A wise move as a fall could wreck his year.

[postie]

steve knows what he is doing, he has planned this over many years so let him get on with it. steve hasa plan and he will stick to it!

[Jack_P]

Endurance races in all sports are full of people who push to hard in response to a competitors pace, who then find they under perform.
I think its another example of Steve's mental strength that he doesn't feel the need to respond.

Is Kurt the one pushing too hard at the moment, time will tell.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

You can't hold peak form for most of a year. I suspect that Kurt is starting his attempt somewhat fitter than Steve and will slide into overtraining/ injury before Steve does.

[Frank9755]

I find it hard to fault Steve's strategy.  Start slow and steady, long days to get plenty of miles in but at a gentle pace to minimise wear and tear on the body and the risk of crashes.  It's very early days yet and he's just playing himself in. 

Steve is the expert in this and if he thinks it's the best approach, chances are it is.  Given he is well up on his optimistic case schedule, it seems to be working. 

[Wowbagger]

Wherever Tarzan rides in the US, he will not be picking up the summer daylight advantage that Steve will - of course, Steve has had a big disadvantage so far, and that will continue up to the equinox. It's all a lot further south than we are so the seasons don't make so much difference to the hours of daylight.

[hillbilly]

I am not going to linger on this, because I don't want to spread negative vibes.

Looking at Kurt's HRM data (same as Steve), estimated calorie expenditure (broadly same as Steve) and hours in saddle (less than Steve) my gut feel is that he isn't near his limits yet.  This points to it not being a slam dunk that Steve will claw back the emerging difference between his cumulative total and Kurt's.  It may even turn out that Steve claws back none of it and loses further ground over the summer.

Hopefully this nagging gut feel I have will be wrong.

[hillbilly]

Wherever Tarzan rides in the US, he will not be picking up the summer daylight advantage that Steve will - of course, Steve has had a big disadvantage so far, and that will continue up to the equinox. It's all a lot further south than we are so the seasons don't make so much difference to the hours of daylight.

Is Kurt planning to base himself in Miami all year?  I would have thought he'd have plans to move to other bits of the States once they stop being snow and ice locked.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

At one stage he mumbled about riding in all 48 contiguous states but he hasn't done anything he said beforehand, so who knows.

[Mr Larrington]

I've only been in Florida in September and it was 30+ degrees and about 95% humidity at 7pm.  At least I missed both a hurricane and the Republican national convention.

Other flat bits of USAnia are available.

[Wowbagger]

Wherever Tarzan rides in the US, he will not be picking up the summer daylight advantage that Steve will - of course, Steve has had a big disadvantage so far, and that will continue up to the equinox. It's all a lot further south than we are so the seasons don't make so much difference to the hours of daylight.

Is Kurt planning to base himself in Miami all year?  I would have thought he'd have plans to move to other bits of the States once they stop being snow and ice locked.

I doubt it very much, but nevertheless, it applied to varying degrees to the whole of the USA, none of which is as far north of any of the UK (for a point of reference, Vancouver, which of course is in Canada, is on roughly the same latitude as Paris).

[Exit Stage Left]

I initially thought that Kurt starting later than Steve gave him an advantage, the OYTT graphic tends to reinforce that.
But Steve is ahead when we look at the calendar year, and the prediction is that Kurt won't pass Steve until April at the current rate.
The interesting bit to me is if Steve can up the pace to keep ahead of Kurt in miles done. There's a pleasing aesthetic to Steve starting on Jan 1st, and I'm happy to give him credit for that.
Come April, and there will be a lot more cyclists on the road, and Steve will be able to ride in company, that will mean that he will go faster for a given heart rate.
Even if Steve falls behind Kurt in miles done, there's no saying that Kurt will see the year out. Steve's tied into a wide support network, and that's a reciprocal commitment that's likely to keep Steve on the road. 

Kurt can of course ride in Alaska.

[Wowbagger]

Doesn't Mr. Larrington's BEAR reside there?

[mattc]

Wasn't Groundhog Day 2 days ago?

[Mr Larrington]

I believe Alaska to be even worse than Scotland when it comes to bitey insects.

And BEARS.

[bobb]

I am not going to linger on this, because I don't want to spread negative vibes.

Looking at Kurt's HRM data (same as Steve), estimated calorie expenditure (broadly same as Steve) and hours in saddle (less than Steve) my gut feel is that he isn't near his limits yet.  This points to it not being a slam dunk that Steve will claw back the emerging difference between his cumulative total and Kurt's.  It may even turn out that Steve claws back none of it and loses further ground over the summer.

Hopefully this nagging gut feel I have will be wrong.

Heart rates, calories burnt and all that stuff is all well and good, but I would imagine that in the hundreds of days still to come, it's going to be the unbearable, nagging aches and pains that come with riding zillions of miles that's going to slow either or both of them down.

Who ever is the least fucked will prevail. Regardless of heart rate, time on bike etc...

[Eccentrica Gallumbits]

I believe Alaska to be even worse than Scotland when it comes to bitey insects.

And BEARS.

Loads of bears in Glasgow.

[Exit Stage Left]

There's lots of info in riding in Alaska, as there's a 1200k there. I interviewed an Alaskan randonneur on LEL 2013.
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?ssrp=1#q=Alaska+1200k

[LittleWheelsandBig]

I was in the same hotel with the first Alaskans to ride PBP, in '99. I had to help a couple of them fit their lights. They'd never ridden in the dark before. The following year several of them rode Team RAAM and one rode the proper RAAM the following year.

[hillbilly]

I believe Alaska to be even worse than Scotland when it comes to bitey insects.

And BEARS.

Bears with guns.

Isn't Alaska's constitution something like "the right to keep and arm bears"?

[CrazyEnglishTriathlete]

I believe Alaska to be even worse than Scotland when it comes to bitey insects.

And BEARS.

Loads of bears in Glasgow.

My bear is planning to be an Ultrarandonneur this year.