Yet Another Cycling Forum

Off Topic => The Pub => Topic started by: LindaG on 15 April, 2010, 11:44:27 am

Title: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: LindaG on 15 April, 2010, 11:44:27 am
Quote from passenger at airport:

Quote
"That's Iceland for you.  One minute they're pinching our money, next minute they're cancelling our 'olidays!"

 ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: border-rider on 15 April, 2010, 12:00:30 pm
I've just spotted this on the BBC webpage


Quote
All flights in and out of the UK will be cancelled from midday to 1800BST as ash from a volcanic eruption in Iceland moves south.

That's quite significant...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 12:05:11 pm
Expect it to get cold today.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Regulator on 15 April, 2010, 12:07:09 pm
I've just spotted this on the BBC webpage


Quote
All flights in and out of the UK will be cancelled from midday to 1800BST as ash from a volcanic eruption in Iceland moves south.

That's quite significant...

BBC's lagging behind...

UK airspace will be closed as of 1200BST (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8621992.stm), according to the VAAC (http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/index.html) warning we've had.

The HPA is also monitoring the situation.  If the plume heads more towards the UK, there is an increased risk of the gubbins falling onto land.  If this happens, there are health implications - those with respiratory diseases could be affected and volcanic ash is a bugger if it gets into your eyes.

It can also be a bugger if it gets into air filters in air conditioning, cars etc.  If we get significant falls then we'll also want to make sure our bikes are washed...

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: MSeries on 15 April, 2010, 12:07:39 pm
on the local radio this morning as the story was breaking the reported it as "on the planes, all flights from Leeds-Bradford are canceled until further notice because of a volcano".

that was it. The presenter was a little surprised, usually they talk about the M1, M62, the Armley Gyratory. There are no volcanoes round here. Some bint phones in and blamed Bjork !!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 15 April, 2010, 12:08:25 pm
I expect that by 18:00 today the vox pops will be full of whining oiks saying that it's just the cabin crew looking for an excuse to skive off work.

At which point someone needs to print out a million copies of the saga of British Airway Flight 9 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_9) and get the Bear (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ce/Male_kodiak_bear_face.JPG) to deliver them.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: border-rider on 15 April, 2010, 12:09:02 pm
BBC's laging behind...


prolly more that I only just looked ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: MSeries on 15 April, 2010, 12:09:31 pm
Radio news items suggest it's more about the ash fecking up the planes, than a visibility thing. Quite exciting though!

[still sunny here]

yes some dude explained how a jet engine works in one sentence.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: clarion on 15 April, 2010, 12:12:26 pm
Y&Y are up to date, aving announced at the top of the programme that the cancellations are effective now.

They've just been discussing the effect on travel insurance.  According to their interviewee, the insurance companies have been in meetings all morning to determine whether this is an act of god. :o
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Rapples on 15 April, 2010, 12:15:01 pm
It's the end of the world.....


We're  doomed I say, dooooomed :o
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Regulator on 15 April, 2010, 12:18:26 pm
It's the end of the world.....


We're  doomed I say, dooooomed :o


Nah.  New Zealand deals with this on a fairly regular basis (my father used to tell an amusing story about being buried in his tent halfway up Mount Ruapehu after an ash eruption) - it's about taking sensible precautions, much as you might for a large chemical fire (think about Buncefield) or similar...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 15 April, 2010, 12:18:39 pm
I blame the Bastard Tories ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: clarion on 15 April, 2010, 12:19:16 pm
No.  It's the End Times.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 12:21:34 pm
We must sacrifice Reg to our god!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 15 April, 2010, 12:23:14 pm
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271309704.png

Looks like ash is heading South. 

My bro & family are in Algarve, wonder if they'll get back this w/e?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Gus on 15 April, 2010, 12:27:13 pm

It's easy to see where they have closed the airspace.
http://www.flightradar24.com/ (http://www.flightradar24.com/)

Copenhagen and Stockholm will close within a couple of hours.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: border-rider on 15 April, 2010, 12:30:05 pm

It's easy to see where they have closed the airspace.
http://www.flightradar24.com/ (http://www.flightradar24.com/)

Copenhagen and Stockholm will close within a couple of hours.

That's a good link.  Interesting.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Jaded on 15 April, 2010, 12:33:24 pm
It's the end of the world.....


We're  doomed I say, dooooomed :o


Nah.  New Zealand deals with this on a fairly regular basis (my father used to tell an amusing story about being buried in his tent halfway up Mount Ruapehu after an ash eruption) - it's about taking sensible precautions, much as you might for a large chemical fire (think about Buncefield) or similar...

Yeah, but New Zealand, it's hardly the world is it now!  ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: clarion on 15 April, 2010, 12:36:19 pm
It's Middle Earth.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Rapples on 15 April, 2010, 12:37:56 pm
Clarion stop trolling ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Regulator on 15 April, 2010, 12:39:08 pm
We must sacrifice Reg to our god!

Will it be one of those pervy, sexual sacrificial ceremonies?

Please!   :P
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: clarion on 15 April, 2010, 12:39:25 pm

It's easy to see where they have closed the airspace.
http://www.flightradar24.com/ (http://www.flightradar24.com/)

Copenhagen and Stockholm will close within a couple of hours.

Can't see it. :(

Doesn't work with NHS steam-powered browser.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Regulator on 15 April, 2010, 12:39:40 pm
Clarion stop trolling ;D


He's not trolling - he's orcing!   ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: clarion on 15 April, 2010, 12:41:13 pm
;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: border-rider on 15 April, 2010, 12:42:03 pm

Doesn't work with NHS steam-powered browser.

It's slow to load & update for me, but it gets there. It may be rather over-subscribed just now...

It's fascinating seeing where planes are flying and where they're not.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 15 April, 2010, 12:42:26 pm
Thursday night is usually rain given that I play 5-a-side football after work.

On one of the first Thursday evenings it is warm and sunny it threatens to 'rain' volcanic ash.

Sloblocks.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: her_welshness on 15 April, 2010, 12:43:00 pm
Uruk-hai or just plain Orc?  :-*
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: border-rider on 15 April, 2010, 12:43:33 pm
Thursday night is usually rain given that I play 5-a-side football after work.

On one of the first Thursday evenings it is warm and sunny it threatens to 'rain' volcanic ash.

Sloblocks.

I thought that a sunny Elenith was too much to ask.  The forecast was very good for Saturday.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Pingu on 15 April, 2010, 12:44:05 pm
Shouldn't this topic be 'Volcano Grinds Planes'?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Regulator on 15 April, 2010, 12:44:21 pm
Shouldn't this topic be 'Volcano Grinds Planes'?

 ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 15 April, 2010, 12:46:52 pm
And: 'planes
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: LindaG on 15 April, 2010, 12:53:16 pm
And: 'planes
::-)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 15 April, 2010, 12:53:54 pm
We are now closed....
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 15 April, 2010, 12:55:05 pm
There was a big noisy bastard heading fro Stanstead when I had my last fag-break, but it's suspiciously quiet here now.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: border-rider on 15 April, 2010, 12:55:29 pm

Doesn't work with NHS steam-powered browser.

It's slow to load & update for me, but it gets there. It may be rather over-subscribed just now...

It's fascinating seeing where planes are flying and where they're not.


(http://www.bosphorus.f2s.com/flights.jpg)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Jacomus on 15 April, 2010, 12:59:20 pm

It's easy to see where they have closed the airspace.
http://www.flightradar24.com/ (http://www.flightradar24.com/)

Copenhagen and Stockholm will close within a couple of hours.

Can't see it. :(

Doesn't work with NHS steam-powered browser.

I just raced Chrome vs Firefox vs IE all at the same time to see which one would open the site first.

Firefox won easily
Chrome limped past the finish line, on the edge of giving up
IE crashed ::-)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 15 April, 2010, 01:00:34 pm
I got an errol message which basically pointed at my software and snorted a scornful laugh.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jacomus on 15 April, 2010, 01:06:20 pm
'tis a fascinating website - thanks Gus :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tim Hall on 15 April, 2010, 01:09:15 pm
I got an errol message.

<mode=Long Good Friday>

What, Errol the ponce from Brixton?  You can't trust anyone these days>

</mode>
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 15 April, 2010, 01:13:10 pm
That's him. ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: David Martin on 15 April, 2010, 01:20:52 pm
Errol is just down the road from me..
Not very far from Liff.

..d
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 15 April, 2010, 01:22:56 pm
...Liff.

And we know the Meaning of that ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: urban_biker on 15 April, 2010, 01:28:18 pm
Thursday night is usually rain given that I play 5-a-side football after work.

On one of the first Thursday evenings it is warm and sunny it threatens to 'rain' volcanic ash.

Sloblocks.

I thought that a sunny Elenith was too much to ask.  The forecast was very good for Saturday.

From BBC News.

Quote
The plume is so high that it will neither be visible nor pose a threat to the health of humans on the ground, although Dr Rothery added that we may have a "spectacularly red sunset" on Thursday evening.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Morrisette on 15 April, 2010, 01:35:39 pm
Election broadcast by the planet, according to a poster on the Grauniad.
Or a comment on what she thinks of the third runway....
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Kim on 15 April, 2010, 01:35:57 pm
If the trains are still running, it doesn't count as an apocalypse...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: CommuteTooFar on 15 April, 2010, 01:36:44 pm
TWF63 is a naughty plane probably just about to land in Southend (where it lives?)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Fab Foodie on 15 April, 2010, 01:42:17 pm
Shouldn't this topic be 'Volcano Grinds Planes'?

It is in Kensington and Knightsbridge...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 15 April, 2010, 01:44:28 pm
TWF63 is a naughty plane probably just about to land in Southend (where it lives?)

Low flying prop aeroplanes not as susceptible to high cruising jet engined aeroplanes?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Fab Foodie on 15 April, 2010, 01:45:47 pm
Radio news items suggest it's more about the ash fecking up the planes, than a visibility thing. Quite exciting though!

[still sunny here]

Cancelled my trip to Spain about 3 hours ago...

Means I can go to the pub now for my weekly beerage  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 15 April, 2010, 01:46:37 pm
If the trains are still running, it doesn't count as an apocalypse...

I'm sure that Bob Crow will find something in this...  ;) ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 15 April, 2010, 01:50:33 pm
If the trains are still running, it doesn't count as an apocalypse...
I'm sure that Bob Crow will find something in this...  ;) ;D

Radio 4.  If that's missing, the seekrit submerged subs know the End has happened and are instructed to nuke Bjorksnagbjordfjord.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: nuttycyclist on 15 April, 2010, 01:51:57 pm
...
From BBC News.

Quote
The plume is so high that it will neither be visible nor pose a threat to the health of humans on the ground, although Dr Rothery added that we may have a "spectacularly red sunset" on Thursday evening.

"Red sky at night, shepherd's delight"

I look forwards to tomorrow's fine weather  ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Andrij on 15 April, 2010, 01:54:13 pm
If the trains are still running, it doesn't count as an apocalypse...

I'm sure that Bob Crow will find something in this...  ;) ;D

Out of his deep concern for HEALTH & SAFETY the people he represents and the travelling public, Bob Crow will  bring all trains (tubes, trams, etc.) to a halt tomorrow, thereby ensuring much of the public stays home, minimising exposure to the volcanic ash.  With the added benefit of a three day weekend for some.
 
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Jaded on 15 April, 2010, 02:08:00 pm
Radio news items suggest it's more about the ash fecking up the planes, than a visibility thing. Quite exciting though!

[still sunny here]

Cancelled my trip to Spain about 3 hours ago...

Means I can go to the pub now for my weekly beerage  :thumbsup:

You can ride to London, Cinderella!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: andrew_s on 15 April, 2010, 02:22:11 pm
Radio news items suggest it's more about the ash fecking up the planes, than a visibility thing. Quite exciting though!

There have been a couple of incidents where a 'plane has flown right into the main ash plume, with the result that all 4 engines died, and the cockpit windows got sandblasted so they couldn't see out. They did manage to restart the engines after gliding out of the ash cloud, but I would imaging they were pretty much a write-off afterwards.

Volcanic ash is very abrasive, so if you find dust all over your car in the next few days, wash it off with lots of water and no rubbing. I would guess that just using the normal windscreen wash/wipe could leave a scratched windscreen.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 15 April, 2010, 02:38:44 pm
Abrasive, corrosive, cloggy, fine and melts to a vitreous gack.   :o

BBC News - Iceland volcano: Why a cloud of ash has grounded flights  (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8621992.stm)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 15 April, 2010, 02:48:20 pm
who is going to TAX this volcanoe for it's carbon dioxode emmission?!! ANd the eco Fascists want to BAN us from driving a car but Icelnad is emiitting HUNDRDS times more than Britiain because of this volcaneo. Why can they get away with it? Becaue they are not in the European Union of socialism that taxes us thousands of pounds and NuLiebore lets them get away with it but not me. We should REFUSE TO PAY ALL TAXES until they make Iceland pay COMPENSATION for the canceled flights and the co2 emmitted, not that co2 has anything to do with global warming (sorry I mean climate change forgot they changed the name) because CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN CHANIGNG FOR MILLIONS OF YEARS which is why Iceland was once called Greenland and tehy had to change the name to Iceland when the climate got COLDER instead of WARMER totally disproving the SCAM that is AGW.

WAKE UP people!!!!!!! This volcanoe is yet another reason why Brown and LieBore must go. Only a vote for UKIP on 9th of May will end the scam and prvent Iceland and the EU from canceling even more flights.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 15 April, 2010, 02:50:17 pm
Indeed

Do Common Porpoise/Beiderbeck have a branch of Iceland  ? We should be told !
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 15 April, 2010, 02:54:34 pm
Cracking "Have your Say" there Jaded  :thumbsup:.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: thing1 on 15 April, 2010, 03:06:43 pm
If the trains are still running, it doesn't count as an apocalypse...

Quite the opposite, it counts as a bloody miracle   ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 15 April, 2010, 03:12:53 pm
POTD for Jaded :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Fab Foodie on 15 April, 2010, 03:22:32 pm
Radio news items suggest it's more about the ash fecking up the planes, than a visibility thing. Quite exciting though!

[still sunny here]

Cancelled my trip to Spain about 3 hours ago...

Means I can go to the pub now for my weekly beerage  :thumbsup:

You can ride to London, Cinderella!


Damn geographical faults...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 15 April, 2010, 03:25:39 pm
TWF63 is a naughty plane probably just about to land in Southend (where it lives?)
Low flying prop aeroplanes not as susceptible to high cruising jet engined aeroplanes?

It's not a prop, it's a Cessna 550 Citation II ten seater twin engined jet.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 15 April, 2010, 03:31:31 pm
who is going to TAX this volcanoe for it's carbon dioxode emmission?!! ANd the eco Fascists want to BAN us from driving a car but Icelnad is emiitting HUNDRDS times more than Britiain because of this volcaneo. Why can they get away with it? Becaue they are not in the European Union of socialism that taxes us thousands of pounds and NuLiebore lets them get away with it but not me. We should REFUSE TO PAY ALL TAXES until they make Iceland pay COMPENSATION for the canceled flights and the co2 emmitted, not that co2 has anything to do with global warming (sorry I mean climate change forgot they changed the name) because CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN CHANIGNG FOR MILLIONS OF YEARS which is why Iceland was once called Greenland and tehy had to change the name to Iceland when the climate got COLDER instead of WARMER totally disproving the SCAM that is AGW.

WAKE UP people!!!!!!! This volcanoe is yet another reason why Brown and LieBore must go. Only a vote for UKIP on 9th of May will end the scam and prvent Iceland and the EU from canceling even more flights.

That was a Party Political Broadcast on behalf of UKIP </BBC Announcer>
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 15 April, 2010, 04:06:55 pm
So has the volcano stopped erupting/wind change predicted, because the officials seem fairly sure that flights will resume on the dot of 07.00 tomorrow?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 15 April, 2010, 04:09:59 pm
That seems unlikely, given that the latest VAAC advisory graphic (http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271331761.png) predicts that the ash (at altitude) will cover the whole of northern Europe from the English channel northwards at 6am tomorrow.

It's probably more a case that they haven't decided to get around to cancelling those yet.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 15 April, 2010, 04:11:20 pm
So has the volcano stopped erupting/wind change predicted, because the officials seem fairly sure that flights will resume on the dot of 07.00 tomorrow?

The estimate for resumptions of flights has been pushed back.  It was originally 18.00BST today - now 0700BST tomorrow...

...I'd place money on it being pushed back even later tomorrow.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jules on 15 April, 2010, 04:13:20 pm
Guy on the BBC website said it was unlikely we would see anything tomorrow - suspect a lot of people who've been away for Easter are not going to get back this weekend.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 15 April, 2010, 04:13:45 pm
Like Regulator says, flights aren't going to be restarting tomorrow morning.  The cloud is spreading out over more of Europe, although presumably at some point the density will drop to a low enough figure that it won't be considered a threat any more.

The next advisory will be issues at 1800Z ie 7pm.  If you're hoping to fly tomorrow, I'd wait and see what that says.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: rogerzilla on 15 April, 2010, 04:21:52 pm
Bring back piston engines!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 15 April, 2010, 04:25:16 pm
Even in a prop plane, I wouldn't want to be flying into a cloud of volcanic ash
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 15 April, 2010, 04:35:28 pm
POTD for Jaded :thumbsup:

I wish I could claim it.  :-[ Shamelessly plagiarised from somehwere else, however it has filed me with desire to be a UKIP blogger/newspaper commenter...  ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Adam on 15 April, 2010, 04:43:44 pm
Flights will remain grounded until at least 7 am UK time (http://www.nats.co.uk/) tomorrow at which time they'll advise what will apply up to 13:00. 

Nothing stopping light aircraft though, provided you remain clear of controlled airspace by staying below a certain height, or clear of major airports.  Below 10,000 ft anyway, I shouldn't think there'd be much if any effect on piston engines.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 15 April, 2010, 04:54:26 pm
Flights will remain grounded until at least 7 am UK time (http://www.nats.co.uk/) tomorrow at which time they'll advise what will apply up to 13:00. 

Nothing stopping light aircraft though, provided you remain clear of controlled airspace by staying below a certain height, or clear of major airports.  Below 10,000 ft anyway, I shouldn't think there'd be much if any effect on piston engines.

Not sure about the last bit, Adam.

Our information is that all UK airspace is effectively closed.  Even the air ambulances have been grounded.  Only military aircraft are able to be used in extremis.  Even the RAF Harrier Squadron at RAF Wittering has been grounded.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tewdric on 15 April, 2010, 04:56:09 pm
Blimey, most of northern Europe and Russia is closed now!  Oh, and apparently the last time this one erupted it went on for a year..
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Adam on 15 April, 2010, 05:07:04 pm
Flights will remain grounded until at least 7 am UK time (http://www.nats.co.uk/) tomorrow at which time they'll advise what will apply up to 13:00.  

Nothing stopping light aircraft though, provided you remain clear of controlled airspace by staying below a certain height, or clear of major airports.  Below 10,000 ft anyway, I shouldn't think there'd be much if any effect on piston engines.

Not sure about the last bit, Adam.

Our information is that all UK airspace is effectively closed.  Even the air ambulances have been grounded.  Only military aircraft are able to be used in extremis.  Even the RAF Harrier Squadron at RAF Wittering has been grounded.




"no flights other than agreed emergencies are currently permitted in UK controlled airspace".  Controlled airspace (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airspace_class) is basically major airports or airspace subject to ATC clearance such as control zones or airways plus anything above FL195.

They can't stop me flapping my wings.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: nuttycyclist on 15 April, 2010, 05:19:33 pm

....

"no flights other than agreed emergencies are currently permitted in UK controlled airspace".  Controlled airspace (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airspace_class) is basically major airports or airspace subject to ATC clearance such as control zones or airways plus anything above FL195.

They can't stop me flapping my wings.


TWF63 is a naughty plane probably just about to land in Southend (where it lives?)

I recall a presentation some time ago where they commented that Southend airport controlled airspace is now pretty much "inside the perimeter fence".  It got reduced a lot because the London airports were getting so much and the pleasure craft users wanted to retain some space they could fly in uncontrolled (e.g. gliders and microlights don't want controlled airspace due to the issue of requiring radios and other such equipment).

It's so small now that planes needing a long approach to the runway are in uncontrolled airspace for most of the final approach!

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: bikenerd on 15 April, 2010, 05:24:57 pm
I'm supposed to be flying to Beijing tomorrow (at 16:35) for a conference starting on Monday.

YACF poll as to whether you think I'll get there or not?

My current prediction: no.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tewdric on 15 April, 2010, 05:26:34 pm
I'm supposed to be flying to Beijing tomorrow (at 16:35) for a conference starting on Monday.

YACF poll as to whether you think I'll get there or not?

My current prediction: no.

No.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: LindaG on 15 April, 2010, 05:26:45 pm
Another no.

A friend of mine is now stranded in Turku.  He's driving to Norway to catch a ferry.  It'd be a very long option for your Chinese conference.   :o
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: nuttycyclist on 15 April, 2010, 05:34:57 pm
I'm supposed to be flying to Beijing tomorrow (at 16:35) for a conference starting on Monday.

YACF poll as to whether you think I'll get there or not?

My current prediction: no.

You'd better get the bike out now and start pedalling.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 05:39:56 pm
We must sacrifice Reg to our god!

Will it be one of those pervy, sexual sacrificial ceremonies?

Please!   :P
Nope.

Just your standard panicked inceneration of a scape goat.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Rapples on 15 April, 2010, 05:40:31 pm
I'm supposed to be flying to Beijing tomorrow (at 16:35) for a conference starting on Monday.

YACF poll as to whether you think I'll get there or not?

My current prediction: no.

You'd better get the bike out now and start pedalling.


But would that be quicker than a slow boat - Boom Boom
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 15 April, 2010, 05:41:20 pm
You gotta feel sorry for the plane spotters.

I mean, it must already be tough being spotty and the owner of multiple duffel bags.

Once you've knocked one out to the well thumbed pages of an Eye Spy book of Commercial Airliners - what is there to do with your day?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 05:42:42 pm
You gotta feel sorry for the plane spotters.

I mean, it must already be tough being spotty and the owner of multiple duffel bags.

Once you've knocked one out to the well thumbed pages of an Eye Spy book of Commercial Airliners - what is there to do with your day?
Internet forums.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: rogerzilla on 15 April, 2010, 05:45:30 pm
I blame Wowbagger.  He's been fighting the EVIL FLYING MACHEENS for years, and now he's worked out how to tap a magma reservoir.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 15 April, 2010, 05:45:52 pm

It's easy to see where they have closed the airspace.
http://www.flightradar24.com/ (http://www.flightradar24.com/)

Copenhagen and Stockholm will close within a couple of hours.

Can't see it. :(

Doesn't work with NHS steam-powered browser.
Or it could be because it's currently saying  -
Quote
Users online: ≈Too many
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: pcolbeck on 15 April, 2010, 05:52:09 pm
I saw a helicopter over the high bit of the M62 this afternoon at about 4:00pm.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 05:53:57 pm
Are we sure that this "volcano" story is not just a cover?

How do we now that rage infected monkeys haven't been released by animal rights activists?

Zombies.

Quarantine.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 15 April, 2010, 05:56:37 pm
Are we sure that this "volcano" story is not just a cover?

How do we now that rage infected monkeys haven't been released by animal rights activists?

Zombies.

Quarantine.


Either that or Gordon's got the Icelanders to stir the volcano up, so he can declare a state of emergency here, postpone the election and cling on desperately to power for a few more weeks...  ;) ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Rapples on 15 April, 2010, 06:01:15 pm
Either that or Gordon's got the Icelanders to stir the volcano up, so he can declare a state of emergency here, postpone the election and cling on desperately to power for a few more weeks...  ;) ;D

I think David Bowie saw it in a dream some time ago ;)


      YouTube
            - David Bowie - Five Years Live 1972
    (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=louXPUW7tHU)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: matthew on 15 April, 2010, 06:12:22 pm
Are we sure that this "volcano" story is not just a cover?

How do we now that rage infected monkeys haven't been released by animal rights activists?

Zombies.

Quarantine.


Either that or Gordon's got the Icelanders to stir the volcano up, so he can declare a state of emergency here, postpone the election and cling on desperately to power for a few more weeks...  ;) ;D

No he just wanted to stick a spanner in Cameron's campaigning travel plans.  :demon:

It levels out the transport budgets of the parties.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 06:14:35 pm
The ironic thing is that the volcano has a bigger carbon foot print than the planes it has grounded.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 15 April, 2010, 06:17:57 pm
Quote
A geophysicist in Iceland warned the chaos caused by ash drifting from the volcano under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier about 75 miles east of Reykjavik could cause trouble for days or weeks. "It is likely that the production of ash will continue at a comparable level for some days or weeks. But where it disrupts travel, that depends on the weather," said Einar Kjartansson, a geophysicist at the Icelandic Meteorological Office. "It depends how the wind carries the ash."
Gruniad

Where the wind blows...

Quote
Professor Bill McGuire, of the Aon Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London, said the previous eruption, in December 1821, lasted until January 1823.

He said air travel could be curtailed repeatedly if the current eruption lasted the same amount of time.
  Teleg.

Erupted for a year last time.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: pcolbeck on 15 April, 2010, 06:21:37 pm
The ironic thing is that the volcano has a bigger carbon foot print than the planes it has grounded.

But paradoxically will probably cause a net cooling. The dust particles reflect light back into space and the sulphur emitted combines with water to form sulphuric acid droplets in the atmosphere that also scatter light back into space.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 06:23:30 pm
It could very well.

Europe has been known to experience crop failures and famine due to volcanic debris in the atmosphere.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 15 April, 2010, 06:48:26 pm
The ironic thing is that the volcano has a bigger carbon foot print than the planes it has grounded.

Maybe not. ISTR that the total CO2 output from Mt St Helens back in the '80s was about 1/100th of the current annual man-made CO2 emissions. I'll see if I can find a link.

I should have been on my way to LA this afternoon. Looks like I won't be flying for a few days. Last time this volcano erupted (1821), it kept going for over a year! That'll see me out of a job...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 06:51:12 pm
The ironic thing is that the volcano has a bigger carbon foot print than the planes it has grounded.

Maybe not. ISTR that the total CO2 output from Mt St Helens back in the '80s was about 1/100th of the current annual man-made CO2 emissions. I'll see if I can find a link.

I should have been on my way to LA this afternoon. Looks like I won't be flying for a few days. Last time this volcano erupted (1821), it kept going for over a year! That'll see me out of a job...
It's only UK flights and for a short period so I bet the volcano wins.

Anyhooo....if they can't operate jet aircraft what exactly are we doing for interception and defence in UK airspace right now?

 ::-)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jakob on 15 April, 2010, 06:52:02 pm
The ironic thing is that the volcano has a bigger carbon foot print than the planes it has grounded.

Well, we better hope that all volcanic companies fail then!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: frankly frankie on 15 April, 2010, 06:52:12 pm
Are we sure that this "volcano" story is not just a cover?

Beat me to it.  It's a hoax.  Air authorities flexing their muscle, fancied a long weekend.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: thing1 on 15 April, 2010, 06:52:28 pm
Blimey, most of northern Europe and Russia is closed now!  Oh, and apparently the last time this one erupted it went on for a year..

Oh. So I may have just unintentionally relocated to California for a year?  :o

That would be fantastic news, except I lack both tandem and stoker. The former could be remedied. That latter is more of a challenge.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pancho on 15 April, 2010, 06:53:26 pm
Laki (or Loki?. I forget) is said to have helped cause the French Rev (hard up peasants and riff raff causing trouble).

So Clarion must love the prospect of another big Icelandic volcano.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: PaulF on 15 April, 2010, 06:56:30 pm

Anyhooo....if they can't operate jet aircraft what exactly are we doing for interception and defence in UK airspace right now?

 ::-)

What do you expect them to intercept?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 06:56:48 pm
Laki (or Loki?. I forget) is said to have helped cause the French Rev (hard up peasants and riff raff causing trouble).

So Clarion must love the prospect of another big Icelandic volcano.
Crops failed two years running IIRC due to cold wet summers.

Cooling trend.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 06:57:37 pm

Anyhooo....if they can't operate jet aircraft what exactly are we doing for interception and defence in UK airspace right now?

 ::-)

What do you expect them to intercept?
Prop driven Russian bombers?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 15 April, 2010, 07:03:26 pm
You can operate stuff, it's just risky.  Unacceptable for regular flights; perfectly acceptable for a desert-tweaked jet with a trained pilot with an ejector.

The skies down here are absolutely blank of traffic.  It's lovely in a zombie-apocalypse kind of way. 

And we get a CME in a couple of days! 8)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 07:08:16 pm
Any cloud you fly through could possibly flame out your engine, that's slightly more than just "risky".

It is wierd not having the sound of aircraft, it's under the flightpath from Manchester and Ringway here, I havent seen as much as a helicopter, which is odd as they tend to follow the motorway.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 15 April, 2010, 07:14:24 pm
Laki (or Loki?. I forget) is said to have helped cause the French Rev (hard up peasants and riff raff causing trouble).
Laki, 1783-4. Killed about 25% of the population of Iceland, some directly (poisoning - fluorosis), more via the famine caused by pasture covered by ash, death of livestock (direct & due to starvation), then cold wet summers killing more livestock.

The ash cloud caused thousands of direct deaths in W. Europe, & probably hundreds of thousands from the bad harvests & extreme weather (e.g. a ferocious winter) of the next couple of years. It also affected the weather in the eastern part of N. America. It was recognised for what it was, though the cloud preceded the news of the eruption.

Another Icelandic volcano erupted in 1783-5, adding to the misery - Grimsvotn.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: PeteB99 on 15 April, 2010, 07:15:55 pm

Anyhooo....if they can't operate jet aircraft what exactly are we doing for interception and defence in UK airspace right now?

 ::-)

What do you expect them to intercept?
Prop driven Russian bombers?


Turboprops

They'll have the same issues with volcanic ash as Turbojets and Turbofans
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: PaulF on 15 April, 2010, 07:17:45 pm

Anyhooo....if they can't operate jet aircraft what exactly are we doing for interception and defence in UK airspace right now?

 ::-)

What do you expect them to intercept?
Prop driven Russian bombers?


Tu-95 (Bear) are turbo prop though so would be subject to the same constraints as regular jets. Not sure that piston driven planes would be much better off.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mrs Pingu on 15 April, 2010, 07:18:37 pm
Our information is that all UK airspace is effectively closed.  Even the air ambulances have been grounded.  Only military aircraft are able to be used in extremis.  Even the RAF Harrier Squadron at RAF Wittering has been grounded.
Had a RAF chopper overhead at maybe 3-4pm. Are Chelithopters using the same rules? They stick pretty low round these parts.
We've got a couple of guys stuck offshore - technically the choppers can fly, but not if they need to rely only on their instruments. It's cloudy today up here, so no chopper flights.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 07:23:53 pm

Anyhooo....if they can't operate jet aircraft what exactly are we doing for interception and defence in UK airspace right now?

 ::-)

What do you expect them to intercept?
Prop driven Russian bombers?


Tu-95 (Bear) are turbo prop though so would be subject to the same constraints as regular jets. Not sure that piston driven planes would be much better off.
4 engines though, and great range, plus stand off weapons.

They could always skirt round the cloud knowing any interceptors are going to have to make it to altitude in the cloud, 20'000 and you get all that crap.

They could also take off elsewhere, make altitude and fly above the cloud, thinking in 3 dimensions.

Not that I think the Ruskies would bomb us, but right now it would probably be easier for them. ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Andrij on 15 April, 2010, 07:33:10 pm

Anyhooo....if they can't operate jet aircraft what exactly are we doing for interception and defence in UK airspace right now?

 ::-)

What do you expect them to intercept?
Prop driven Russian bombers?


Tu-95 (Bear) are turbo prop though so would be subject to the same constraints as regular jets. Not sure that piston driven planes would be much better off.
4 engines though, and great range, plus stand off weapons.

They could always skirt round the cloud knowing any interceptors are going to have to make it to altitude in the cloud, 20'000 and you get all that crap.

They could also take off elsewhere, make altitude and fly above the cloud, thinking in 3 dimensions.

Not that I think the Ruskies would bomb us, but right now it would probably be easier for them. ;)

From last month: BBC News - RAF spots Russian jets near Western Isles (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8585432.stm)
 
I wouldn't put it past the Russkies to test the UK's reaction right about now.
 
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: PaulF on 15 April, 2010, 07:38:27 pm

Anyhooo....if they can't operate jet aircraft what exactly are we doing for interception and defence in UK airspace right now?

 ::-)

What do you expect them to intercept?
Prop driven Russian bombers?


Tu-95 (Bear) are turbo prop though so would be subject to the same constraints as regular jets. Not sure that piston driven planes would be much better off.
4 engines though, and great range, plus stand off weapons.

They could always skirt round the cloud knowing any interceptors are going to have to make it to altitude in the cloud, 20'000 and you get all that crap.

They could also take off elsewhere, make altitude and fly above the cloud, thinking in 3 dimensions.

Not that I think the Ruskies would bomb us, but right now it would probably be easier for them. ;)

Interceptors can still operate from low level though if necessary plus Skyflash has a range of 28 miles and can be deployed from as low as 100m so assuming that radar is working OK we're fairly safe from a diet of Borscht :)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Andrij on 15 April, 2010, 07:40:40 pm

Interceptors can still operate from low level though if necessary plus Skyflash has a range of 28 miles and can be deployed from as low as 100m so assuming that radar is working OK we're fairly safe from a diet of Borscht :)

Oi! Borshch is lovely stuff.  Had a bowl with dinner this evening.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 07:42:29 pm

Anyhooo....if they can't operate jet aircraft what exactly are we doing for interception and defence in UK airspace right now?

 ::-)

What do you expect them to intercept?
Prop driven Russian bombers?


Tu-95 (Bear) are turbo prop though so would be subject to the same constraints as regular jets. Not sure that piston driven planes would be much better off.
4 engines though, and great range, plus stand off weapons.

They could always skirt round the cloud knowing any interceptors are going to have to make it to altitude in the cloud, 20'000 and you get all that crap.

They could also take off elsewhere, make altitude and fly above the cloud, thinking in 3 dimensions.

Not that I think the Ruskies would bomb us, but right now it would probably be easier for them. ;)

Interceptors can still operate from low level though if necessary plus Skyflash has a range of 28 miles and can be deployed from as low as 100m so assuming that radar is working OK we're fairly safe from a diet of Borscht :)
At low level they stop being interceptors.

Altitude = speed.

Thats why they have such a climb rate.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jurek on 15 April, 2010, 07:43:47 pm
Borshch


 :sick:

That is all.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 07:45:06 pm
I expect the sunset will look like the earth caught fire tonight.

 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Adam on 15 April, 2010, 07:58:11 pm
Nope - it's just going black here, due to a large dark cloud.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 15 April, 2010, 07:59:08 pm
We haz volcano dust. A fine layer of pale grey stuff on cars, the dustbin, etc.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 15 April, 2010, 08:05:14 pm
I expect the sunset will look like the earth caught fire tonight.

 :thumbsup:

Not particularly.  I can't see it that well at the moment, it's shifted around from earlier in the year, and it's behind a building which is a bit higher than the floor I'm on, but the sky doesn't look all that colourful.  It's been redder on days when I haven't noticed any volcanoes in the news.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: tom_e on 15 April, 2010, 08:14:32 pm
Since the ruskies would only be doing it for kicks (well, not to actually bomb us anyway) and they'd probably have to fly through more of it to get to us than we would to intercept them, they'd be risking looking mighty silly if they had problems in the ash themselves and needed rescueing...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 15 April, 2010, 08:27:34 pm
what a shit day for it to happen if you happen to be my friend; having had to cut short our Dutch cycling trip due to his Dad carking last month he's now sat at home wondering how he's going to get to Dublin for the (whatever Irish Catholics do at this sort of time) mass

we are both due to fly to France in June  :-\
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 08:30:40 pm
Wrong kind of dust.

Gone black here as well, the temperature drop has been terrific.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 15 April, 2010, 08:34:47 pm
I'd be surprised if the ash had any noticeable immediate effect on weather, the normal day to day variation is probably larger.  I'd think that you'd have to look at the temperatures over a much greater period of time to spot any drop possibly caused by this volcano.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 08:40:14 pm
I am not saying it's nuclear winter, but it has most certainly got darker and colder this evening more quickly than I would have expected. If it was clear then yes it should get chilly very quickly but tonight is the opposite.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 15 April, 2010, 08:54:11 pm
Gone dark and chilly here too, though thankfully plenty of hot air coming my way from ITV Leader debate on TV at the mo...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: rogerzilla on 15 April, 2010, 09:02:14 pm
I wouldn't worry about Russian bombers.  ICBMs laugh in the face of dust, since they don't consume air.  Not sure about how dust-proof cruise missiles are, but I don't think they're used for nuclear delivery these days.

A piston engined plane is just as immune to dust as your car, because it breathes through an air filter.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mrs Pingu on 15 April, 2010, 09:08:34 pm
It's dark cos it's night, and it's chilly cos there's a cold wind!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 09:13:27 pm
It's dark cos it's night, and it's chilly cos there's a cold wind!
It went very grey and very cold a few hours ago, you could see the swathe of grey coming in of the north sea but the sunset in the east was clear skies, there was a very sharp definition between the two.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 15 April, 2010, 09:18:16 pm
2010-04-12
(http://jakal.sp.ph.ic.ac.uk/~timo/EGPH_20100412.gif)
2010-04-13
(http://jakal.sp.ph.ic.ac.uk/~timo/EGPH_20100413.gif)
2010-04-14
(http://jakal.sp.ph.ic.ac.uk/~timo/EGPH_20100414.gif)
2010-04-15
(http://jakal.sp.ph.ic.ac.uk/~timo/EGPH_20100415.gif)

I wondered what the temperatures are doing.  The above plots are the temperatures at Edinburgh airport (which I'm assuming is well under the cloud of ash now) over the last four days.

If anything, the temperature for today is warmer than the last few days.  Variation due to other things (like clouds, changes in wind direction etc) are far greater than any possible effect of the ash.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 09:22:58 pm
It was a sunny day and one of the warmest so far, the ash did not start to really move in until late afternoon though, it sort of turned off the sun rather quickly.

The differential seemed quite noticable for so early in the evening.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 15 April, 2010, 09:26:02 pm
It's dark cos it's night, and it's chilly cos there's a cold wind!

Aha!  ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 15 April, 2010, 09:41:40 pm
Mrs FB and granddaughter Romilly aged 5 are stuck in Dohar - after 2 weeks in OZ. Bit of a bugger - as they were looking forward to being home tonight - now -- well could be several days before they can do the last 8 hour hop
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 15 April, 2010, 09:46:38 pm

A piston engined plane is just as immune to dust as your car, because it breathes through an air filter.


That works till the filter's clogged. Then what? Park up while you clear the filter? Nope, don't think so! If there is indeed a problem with volcanic dust in UK (and I'm not convinced that we're not over-reacting due to our phenomenal ability to detect minute traces of the stuff, combined with the fact that Eurocontrol may be a tad over-sensitized having recently carried out a volcanic event exercise which involved closing European airspace), it could potentially affect any aircraft with an air-breathing internal combustion engine. That's everyone bar gliders, balloons, and rockets.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 09:51:53 pm

A piston engined plane is just as immune to dust as your car, because it breathes through an air filter.


That works till the filter's clogged. Then what? Park up while you clear the filter? Nope, don't think so! If there is indeed a problem with volcanic dust in UK (and I'm not convinced that we're not over-reacting due to our phenomenal ability to detect minute traces of the stuff, combined with the fact that Eurocontrol may be a tad over-sensitized having recently carried out a volcanic event exercise which involved closing European airspace), it could potentially affect any aircraft with an air-breathing internal combustion engine. That's everyone bar gliders, balloons, and rockets.
The ever scientific-for-dummies BBC show updraft of the pyroclastic cloud from the caldera and then it being stripped away and carried south at 20'000
 
Will it be clear above that ceiling?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Eccentrica Gallumbits on 15 April, 2010, 10:13:49 pm
The Daily Mash - Home (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/'i-can't-come-into-work-because-of-the-volcano'-201004152642/)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: kyuss on 15 April, 2010, 10:15:57 pm
I'm due to fly out to Rome on Sunday morning for my first holiday in 7 years.  :( Can everyone keep their fingers crossed for me.  
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Flying Duck on 15 April, 2010, 10:17:35 pm
Dear Iceland

We actually said "send cash".....
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 15 April, 2010, 10:19:29 pm
I'm due to fly out to Rome on Sunday morning

Oddly enough, so were we.  But we changed it at the last minute to next week.

Quote
Can everyone keep their fingers crossed for me.  

Crossed.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 10:20:01 pm
For some reason I feel the need to link to the Viking Kitten Imigrant Song but some git removed all the soundtrack from youtube.

 :'(
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tim Hall on 15 April, 2010, 10:34:22 pm

but the sunset in the east was clear skies, there was a very sharp definition between the two.

Aha! Confirmation, if needed, that Zoiders is on a different planet to the rest of us. ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Adrian on 15 April, 2010, 10:36:16 pm

but the sunset in the east was clear skies, there was a very sharp definition between the two.

Aha! Confirmation, if needed, that Zoiders is on a different planet to the rest of us. ;)

Good spot
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: spen666 on 15 April, 2010, 10:41:32 pm
I blame Gordon Brown and New Labour.

 All flights are only grounded under a Labour government - 9/11/2001 and now 15/4/10


 ;D


With apologies to Harold Wilson
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 15 April, 2010, 10:48:48 pm

but the sunset in the east was clear skies, there was a very sharp definition between the two.

Aha! Confirmation, if needed, that Zoiders is on a different planet to the rest of us. ;)
Dyslexic moment.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: iddu on 16 April, 2010, 12:02:56 am
For some reason I feel the need to link to the Viking Kitten Imigrant Song but some git removed all the soundtrack from youtube.

 :'(
clicky (http://www.echelonrana.com/viking.html)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 16 April, 2010, 12:05:01 am
Get in!

Hammer of the gods!

It's Ragnarok-tastic.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: thing1 on 16 April, 2010, 01:33:43 am
The irony with the viking kittens is, had it not been for this volcanic ash, I could be drinking beer in Robert Plant's local pub tomorrow night! (apparently (http://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=30544.msg596183#msg596183)).
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Valiant on 16 April, 2010, 02:45:17 am
Is it wrong that the first thing I thought when I got up and heard the news was that Wowbagger did good? Plane Stupid have upped their game lol.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 16 April, 2010, 07:49:08 am
We haz volcano dust. A fine layer of pale grey stuff on cars, the dustbin, etc.

Wash it off carefully... it's very abrasive stuff.

I got ragged at the office yesterday, as I suggested that it was a good thing that we'd just been through a major disaster exercise (Operation Black Gold) on Wednesday, and we be up to speed when the ash came down.

Colleagues checked with the Health Protection Agency who said it won't be a problem, won't come down on the UK, no health risk (despite the volcanologists telling them otherwise).

Overnight, the wind changed, dust started falling, HPA changes its mind, admissions for respiratory problems go up... revenge is mine today!   :demon: ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 16 April, 2010, 08:02:17 am
How long before respirators start disappearing from the shelves of B&Q et al, I wonder...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 16 April, 2010, 08:37:06 am
What, there isn't already one in your go-bag?  Always preparing for the wrong apocalypse...

Sign of settlnig ash (apart from, well, the settling ash): it's smelly.  Smells of rotten eggs 'cos of the sulphur and brimstone and dat.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 16 April, 2010, 08:48:51 am
OK OOI what is the ideal respirator for volcanic ash and gas?   ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Charlotte on 16 April, 2010, 08:50:59 am
(http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b187/vicechair/YACF%20in%20the%20pub/12b20050.jpg)

HTH  :)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 16 April, 2010, 08:55:12 am
All quiet here....the birdsong this morning, without jet roar, seemed so much louder.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 16 April, 2010, 09:14:40 am
The trackless blue bowl of sky over Devon looks witchy and unfinished, slightly fake.

N95 / FFP2 should handle ash particles.  In a heavy fall you'd want a full-on respirator 'cos of the sulphur fumes, but that won't apply to anyone who doesn't have a 40-a-day herring habit.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 16 April, 2010, 09:18:43 am
The trackless blue bowl of sky over Devon looks witchy and unfinished, slightly fake.

N95 / FFP2 should handle ash particles.  In a heavy fall you'd want a full-on respirator 'cos of the sulphur fumes, but that won't apply to anyone who doesn't have a 40-a-day herring habit.

Heavier falls now predicted for the North East and East of the country.

They've even let a few flights out of Scottish airports.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 16 April, 2010, 09:21:07 am
What are we going to do now there aren't any mind-altering chemicals being dropped on us from the sky  ???
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tim Hall on 16 April, 2010, 09:25:18 am
Rode into to work today, taking the long way round. As I crossed the M23, I could see the matrix sign:

GATWICK
CLOSED


Is anyone else thinking of "The Kraken Wakes"?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mrs Pingu on 16 April, 2010, 09:28:11 am
No ash here :)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 16 April, 2010, 09:41:34 am
Ash here.

(http://www.alfiecat.co.uk/yetacf/Ash.jpg)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: bikenerd on 16 April, 2010, 09:45:21 am
I'm supposed to be flying to Beijing tomorrow (at 16:35) for a conference starting on Monday.

YACF poll as to whether you think I'll get there or not?

My current prediction: no.

I'm not going anywhere.  Apart from into work in a minute as it beats pressing redial on the phone every quarter of an hour since 8 am to try to get through to BAs booking "hotline".  Hot?  I think it has melted.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 16 April, 2010, 10:07:36 am
Apparently it could get interesting if this eruption, wakes up big-daddy volcano under said glacier...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin109 on 16 April, 2010, 10:13:26 am
(http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b187/vicechair/YACF%20in%20the%20pub/12b20050.jpg)

HTH  :)

Looks like a bog standard respirator to me.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 16 April, 2010, 10:21:44 am
Apparently it could get interesting if this eruption, wakes up big-daddy volcano under said glacier...

If I remember the details correctly, the current Volcano has erupted four times in the last 1100 years, and on the first three of those it's been a precursor to Katla erupting.  Katla is a bit bigger than the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano that we are dealing with the ash from at the moment.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 16 April, 2010, 10:30:49 am
Year Without a Summer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 16 April, 2010, 10:58:17 am

HTH  :)

Looks like a bog standard respirator to me.

Groan.   ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Andrew Br on 16 April, 2010, 11:21:16 am
Breaking news- police have arrested the cleaner of Manchester City's trophy cabinet in connection with the huge dust cloud over the UK.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: nuttycyclist on 16 April, 2010, 11:30:01 am
Went out for a walk last night.

No decent sunset.  Clear skies.  Something was wrong though...

Then I realised it.   The stars were twinkling and pretty, but the constellation I call "The Heathrow Stack" was missing, as were the pretty ones with flashing red lights.  Crikey it was quiet!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 16 April, 2010, 11:31:40 am
Yes, I can't help thinking that the inhabitants of Hounslow and it's environs are a bit confused by the quiet. :)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 16 April, 2010, 11:36:32 am
I saw a little one engine prop plane fly over my home town last night;

does the dust only affect jets? if so why can't FlyBe and the BA Outer Hebrides planes etc operate?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Charlotte on 16 April, 2010, 11:37:06 am
My office is right underneath the runway at RAF Northolt and we usually get a frikkin' great big plane going over at about 50m every ten or fifteen minutes.

The quietness is really, really weird.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 16 April, 2010, 11:45:42 am
I thought FlyBe used turboprops, which suffer the same problems as turbojets and fans.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 16 April, 2010, 11:50:22 am

Anyhooo....if they can't operate jet aircraft what exactly are we doing for interception and defence in UK airspace right now?

 ::-)

What do you expect them to intercept?
Prop driven Russian bombers?


Tu-95 (Bear) are turbo prop though so would be subject to the same constraints as regular jets. Not sure that piston driven planes would be much better off.
4 engines though, and great range, plus stand off weapons.


The 1982 BA 747 had 4 engines too; they all went down. Of course they didn't know what to do then; one course of action could or would be now to drop RPM levels, falls promptly to below the dust cloud to limit impact.

Turbo-props rely on  gas turbines so would suffer in the same way. It is not a "jet" engine problem.

As for jet fighters and other gas turbine machines deployed in sandy regions, they are very subject to dust problems and it is poses a serious challenge. Yes these are tested for this, but it seems to me that the nature of the material up in the air at present is even nastier to gas turbines than simple sand dust.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 16 April, 2010, 12:10:26 pm
I blame Gordon Brown and New Labour.

 All flights are only grounded under a Labour government - 9/11/2001 and now 15/4/10


 ;D


With apologies to Harold Wilson

What happened to ground flights on November 9th 2001 then?

So anyway, chap goes into a shop with a Bank of Iceland debit card.  And the checkout person says "D'ya want any ash-back?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 16 April, 2010, 12:40:22 pm
Found this on The Enemies of Reason:

Quote from: Anton Vowl
Europeans rejoice as ‘Brits on the piss’ stuck in airport

THE continent of Europe has been celebrating tonight as thousands of beer-swilling fuckwits have been prevented from piling onto budget airline planes to embark on stupidly drunken stag and hen weekends.

"I noticed something tonight," said a relieved Milan Novacek as he walked around his eerily quiet bar in central Prague. "There was something missing. It was hard to put my finger on at first, but then I realised: no-one in a football shirt had launched into a rowdy chorus of LET'S GO TO A BROTHEL before throwing a beer glass in someone else's face and ending up in a bubbling pool of beery vomit and blood on the cobblestones.

"Sure, my takings are down 400%, but maybe it's worth it to have a night off. I had forgotten what this place smelled of without sick on the floor."

An immense cloud of spiralling evil volcanic sooty nonsense was farted out over Iceland on Monday morning, rendering Sky News into a right old tizzy, as if a few people not being able to go on holiday was like the Blitz or something, but at least providing a welcome clunking metaphor/simile for hard-working hacks in a hurry.

While continental Europe might be delirious with joy at the absence of boorish twats from Essex getting their cocks and arses out for the 900th time this evening, others were less pleased.

Ricky 'Rickyboy!' Smith, of Southend-on-Sea, spoke of his disappointment at not being able to 'get completely fucking wrecked, like me and the lads do every night anyway, but somewhere foreign'.

He said: "We were looking forward to really getting totally cunted on cheap lager and then maybe getting the clap off some ropey old prostitutes. It's my stag weekend, after all. But this fucking smelly cloud of shit from Iceland has fucked our plans right up. Now all we can do is get mullered in the departure lounge at Stansted and smash some stuff up here. But it's not the same vandalising British shops when we really want to be breaking some glass and having fights in another culture instead."

Conspiracy theorists have expressed dismay at not being able to find anything other than a perfectly rational explanation to the grounding of all of Britain's aircraft.

Mike Luni, from Andover, took time out from crying softly in his parents' spare bedroom to confirm that he was 'disappointed' by the lack of tinfoilhatness about the Icelandic emission.

He said: "Yes, I can confirm that despite everyone's best efforts, this is an entirely natural phenomenon and not some secret plot by the Zionist shapeshifting Illuminati to boil your babies alive.

"Which isn't to say that they wouldn't, given half a chance."

 ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 16 April, 2010, 01:20:02 pm
Apparently it could get interesting if this eruption, wakes up big-daddy volcano under said glacier...

If I remember the details correctly, the current Volcano has erupted four times in the last 1100 years, and on the first three of those it's been a precursor to Katla erupting.  Katla is a bit bigger than the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano that we are dealing with the ash from at the moment.

Katla erupts far more frequently than Eyjafjallajökull (around 40-80 years rather than every 2-300 or so), so it doesn't need Eyjafjallajökull to set it off. But it seems highly likely that the increased activity under southern Iceland might set it off again. Katla's last big bang (1918) was a 5 on the VEI. I remember Pinotubo going off in 1991, which was a 6 - and a big 6! - and, even with the help of Typhoon Yunya, it didn't disrupt aviation for more than a few days. Unless you worked at Clark AFB, that is.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 16 April, 2010, 01:32:40 pm
I saw a little one engine prop plane fly over my home town last night;

does the dust only affect jets? if so why can't FlyBe and the BA Outer Hebrides planes etc operate?

The dust layer's quite high up.  Little transit-van planes and low-flying choppers don't have to pass through it to get to their cruising height. 

Having said that, the flying spatula hasn't been heard all day...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: oncemore on 16 April, 2010, 01:35:43 pm
I just KNEW it wasn't our year - supposed to be flying to Egypt first thing Monday morning.
Aaaaarggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Morrisette on 16 April, 2010, 02:10:17 pm
Year Without a Summer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer)

Don't like the sound of that!
*googles for extra large greenhouses*
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 16 April, 2010, 04:06:51 pm
Year Without a Summer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer)

Don't like the sound of that!
*googles for extra large greenhouses*
*googles for canned food and shot guns*
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 16 April, 2010, 04:11:05 pm
You're unlikely to find canned shotguns.  Even on the internet.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: nutkin on 16 April, 2010, 04:22:07 pm
Volcanocam (http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-fimmvorduhalsi/)

Apparently. But then I don't speak Icelandic...  ;)

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Valiant on 16 April, 2010, 04:52:47 pm
Katla fatla. I'm waiting for Yellowstone to go up.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 16 April, 2010, 05:07:04 pm
Katla fatla. I'm waiting for Yellowstone to go up.

LOL. Lack of flights will be the least of our troubles...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tom B on 16 April, 2010, 05:43:24 pm
Quote
Katla fatla. I'm waiting for Yellowstone to go up

... or Cumbre Vieja (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbre_Vieja#Future_threat)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 16 April, 2010, 05:48:13 pm
Volcanocam (http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-fimmvorduhalsi/)

Apparently. But then I don't speak Icelandic...  ;)

Server not found: rtmp://157.157.65.94/eyjafjallajokull/

Oh gods, it's fallen into the Volcano... :o
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Julian on 16 April, 2010, 05:51:16 pm
<random tangent>

The Icelandic sagas blame witchcraft for turning the earth inside out, almost certainly a reference to the Katla eruption of 920 which covered fields with lava rock overnight.

</random tangent>
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Kim on 16 April, 2010, 05:59:44 pm
does the dust only affect jets? if so why can't FlyBe and the BA Outer Hebrides planes etc operate?

My understanding is that regardless of the particulars of engine technology, all IFR (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrument_flight_rules) flights are grounded.  VFR flights are okay, but that comes with strict restrictions on altitude, controlled airspace, weather conditions, not flying through cloud etc.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 16 April, 2010, 06:20:07 pm
You're unlikely to find canned shotguns.  Even on the internet.
I win the bet.

http://www.mossberg.com/images/Mossberg_Guns/930/New/51340.jpg

Pay up.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 16 April, 2010, 07:01:40 pm
I saw a little one engine prop plane fly over my home town last night;

does the dust only affect jets? if so why can't FlyBe and the BA Outer Hebrides planes etc operate?
Most of the dust is quite high up. If you stay low, you get less dust in the engine. Also, piston engines aren't affected much, compared to jets. Turboprops (like those FlyBe aircraft) are screwed, but quite a few small propellor-driven aircraft are piston-engined.

The flights to the Scillies are operating. They never get high enough. They're not in controlled airspace.

Sign of settlnig ash (apart from, well, the settling ash): it's smelly.  Smells of rotten eggs 'cos of the sulphur and brimstone and dat.
Heard from a bloke in the Orkneys last night. Stank up there, apparently. Sulphurous, & harsh on the eyes & throat. Nasty.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Ian H on 16 April, 2010, 07:12:34 pm
Now's the time to sell your house in Cranford (http://ispystrangers.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/heathrow.jpeg?w=300&h=225), where Ken Rogers made his trikes.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 16 April, 2010, 08:11:24 pm
does the dust only affect jets? if so why can't FlyBe and the BA Outer Hebrides planes etc operate?

Flybe use Dash-8 Turbo-props - the engines of which are basically small jet engines with propellers.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Domestique on 16 April, 2010, 08:28:10 pm
We dont live under a low level flight path, and this may just be my imagination, but I am enjoying what seems to be a much quieter enviroment. I hope this continues.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 16 April, 2010, 08:31:36 pm
I live right under the Heathrow flight path (or one of them). It's lovely  :)

Nearby Richmond Park is blighted by the noise, so it'll be particularly nice in there for as long as this continues.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: teethgrinder on 16 April, 2010, 08:34:15 pm
You're unlikely to find canned shotguns.  Even on the internet.
I win the bet.

http://www.mossberg.com/images/Mossberg_Guns/930/New/51340.jpg

Pay up.


How very canny.

I wonder if you can get canned can openers...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 16 April, 2010, 09:00:22 pm
does the dust only affect jets? if so why can't FlyBe and the BA Outer Hebrides planes etc operate?

Flybe use Dash-8 Turbo-props - the engines of which are basically small jet engines with propellers.

thanks; as are helicopter engines according to this; although I assume they are allowed to fly as they don't get up to the alititude where the ash is.

Engines (http://www.ueet.nasa.gov/StudentSite/engines.html)


I flew back from Amsterdam last year and was sitting next to an aviation expert; I asked him why an airliner would bother climbing all the way up to 35000 ft on such a short flight when as soon as it got up there it almost immediately started to descend,

he said it was due to the efficiency of modern jet engines and was a lot more economic than staying at a lower altitude even for a 40 minute flight; I had presumed that they had to be at cruising altitude in order to slot into the air traffic control that all the longer haul flights used.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 16 April, 2010, 09:28:57 pm
You can still buy piston engined helicopters.

RotorWay Exec 162F - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exec_162F)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 16 April, 2010, 09:36:32 pm
Propcycle for the win.   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 16 April, 2010, 09:43:47 pm
Propcycle for the win.   :thumbsup:

done already; no-one remember the Gossamer Albatross - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gossamer_Albatross) ? eurostar schmeurostar

(http://www.donaldmonroe.com/gallery/zp-core/i.php?a=gossamer-albatross&i=ga62_09.jpg&s=595&cw=&ch=&q=85)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andrewc on 16 April, 2010, 09:46:59 pm
Good business for some.  We've had several orders for extra bandwidth today from ferry & travel companies  :)

And I suspect one of my best mates is stuck in NYC with his boyfriend,  I doubt if he'll be complaining about not being able to get back to work .....
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 16 April, 2010, 09:53:18 pm
does the dust only affect jets? if so why can't FlyBe and the BA Outer Hebrides planes etc operate?

Flybe use Dash-8 Turbo-props - the engines of which are basically small jet engines with propellers.

thanks; as are helicopter engines according to this; although I assume they are allowed to fly as they don't get up to the alititude where the ash is.

Engines (http://www.ueet.nasa.gov/StudentSite/engines.html)


I flew back from Amsterdam last year and was sitting next to an aviation expert; I asked him why an airliner would bother climbing all the way up to 35000 ft on such a short flight when as soon as it got up there it almost immediately started to descend,

he said it was due to the efficiency of modern jet engines and was a lot more economic than staying at a lower altitude even for a 40 minute flight; I had presumed that they had to be at cruising altitude in order to slot into the air traffic control that all the longer haul flights used.


UK air ambulances are grounded...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 16 April, 2010, 09:57:45 pm
There was someone doing lesisurely aerobatics in a little private plane over here today
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 16 April, 2010, 09:58:43 pm
A lot of UK air ambulances are NOTAR configuration that use thrust vectoring for torque control.

I can see why they grounded them.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: thing1 on 17 April, 2010, 02:27:57 am
That seems unlikely, given that the latest VAAC advisory graphic (http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271331761.png) predicts that the ash (at altitude) will cover the whole of northern Europe from the English channel northwards at 6am tomorrow.

It's probably more a case that they haven't decided to get around to cancelling those yet.

Damn you, TimO!  ;)

Ever since you posted that, their images directory (http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/data/) has become my most-watched page on the internet.

The latest one doesn't look at all good:

(http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271463398.png) (http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271463398.png)


Think I'm going to write next week off, and book a flight direct from California to South of Spain (for my training camp, the week after  :thumbsup:).
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 17 April, 2010, 06:08:10 am
Think I'm going to write next week off, and book a flight direct from California to South of Spain (for my training camp, the week after  :thumbsup:).

...so long as the the cloud doesn't drift any further south (it looks like northern-most Spain is probably already closed). :-\
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 17 April, 2010, 10:28:01 am
We dont live under a low level flight path, and this may just be my imagination, but I am enjoying what seems to be a much quieter enviroment. I hope this continues.

Around half a million people directly or indirectly employed by aviation in UK are fervently hoping it doesn't go on long. At a cost of £200m a day, just in UK, there are several businesses in aviation already looking shaky. The cash outflow right now is horrendous, and it will get worse. It may well see more than one airline closed permanently.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 17 April, 2010, 11:33:17 am
We dont live under a low level flight path, and this may just be my imagination, but I am enjoying what seems to be a much quieter enviroment. I hope this continues.

Around half a million people directly or indirectly employed by aviation in UK are fervently hoping it doesn't go on long. At a cost of £200m a day, just in UK, there are several businesses in aviation already looking shaky. The cash outflow right now is horrendous, and it will get worse. It may well see more than one airline closed permanently.

And that's before the stranded passengers all start exercising their rights to refunds and compensation under EU Regs 261 and 264. I can see several carriers going to the wall because of this :(.

What I think will also happen is - over the course of the next week (it's already happening), businesses will be forced to embrace such wonderments as video conferencing, conference calls, webex sessions and so on, because their staff cannot travel. A proportion of those will probably see the light, and continue to do more business electronically and remotely, and reduce their travel budgets thereafter.

The Greens of course will be rubbing their hands with glee. The poor folk who work in the industry will be less enthused.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Domestique on 17 April, 2010, 12:00:54 pm
We dont live under a low level flight path, and this may just be my imagination, but I am enjoying what seems to be a much quieter enviroment. I hope this continues.

Around half a million people directly or indirectly employed by aviation in UK are fervently hoping it doesn't go on long. At a cost of £200m a day, just in UK, there are several businesses in aviation already looking shaky. The cash outflow right now is horrendous, and it will get worse. It may well see more than one airline closed permanently.

Is this whats known as an act of god?
I am sure there will be a point when the financial costs out weigh the risk.
otoh I have just got back in from my normal Saturday ride, and tbh I am loving the quiet. Perhaps your lucky to live somewhere that is quiet all the time
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Valiant on 17 April, 2010, 12:10:23 pm
Act of Nature.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 17 April, 2010, 12:10:56 pm
There was someone doing lesisurely aerobatics in a little private plane over here today
There were a Robinson helicopter and a light aircraft stooging around over Gatwick yesterday
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 17 April, 2010, 12:12:31 pm
Just looked at flight radar....something headed East from Aberdeen, but nothing else north of Spain

EDIT: The Scots one has vanished, must have been a glitch
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: 2_Flat_Erics on 17 April, 2010, 12:43:11 pm
Around half a million people directly or indirectly employed by aviation in UK are fervently hoping it doesn't go on long. At a cost of £200m a day, just in UK, there are several businesses in aviation already looking shaky. The cash outflow right now is horrendous, and it will get worse. It may well see more than one airline closed permanently.

The airline industry is one of the most heavily subsidised industries in the UK, and around the world. A few of them going bust will be no loss to the majority of people and we will get a few planes out of circulation permenantly which can't be a bad thing. Less noise, less polution, less money coming out of the tax payers coffers.

Of course there is also a human cost if an airline goes bust and people loose their jobs. Welcome to the real world where this happens to people every day in all sorts of industies. I've been made redundant 5 times in the past 20 years. Crap happens to all of us all the time but we just get on with life.

I'm enjoying the relative peace and quiet for as long as it lasts..... Now how can we get all the cars off the road for a few days as well.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 17 April, 2010, 01:57:24 pm
Now how can we get all the cars off the road for a few days as well.

A weak pound and >$100 a barrel oil price would easily conspire to give us a £2.00+/ltr fuel price which would probably go a long way to having the effect you're looking for. The already sick economy probably wouldn't respond well to that though...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: David Martin on 17 April, 2010, 02:53:38 pm
Just looked at flight radar....something headed East from Aberdeen, but nothing else north of Spain

EDIT: The Scots one has vanished, must have been a glitch

East from Aberdeen?
Flights are coming in to Prestwick from US and Scotland is now cleared for internal flights.

..d
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: rogerzilla on 17 April, 2010, 03:10:26 pm
Obligatory cycling angle:

BBC Sport - Bradley Wiggins hit as ash cloud disrupts sport (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/front_page/8622315.stm)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 17 April, 2010, 03:56:22 pm
Obligatory cycling angle:

BBC Sport - Bradley Wiggins hit as ash cloud disrupts sport (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/front_page/8622315.stm)
Obligatory silly cycling angle:
BBC News - Man forced to cycle on to ferry (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/8627026.stm)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 17 April, 2010, 03:58:38 pm
I have cycled onto the ferry to Norway.

It's rather fun.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: PeteB99 on 17 April, 2010, 04:01:07 pm
Not everything is grounded.

A helicopter and a light aircraft came over Chester this morning, not very high and presumably piston engined.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 17 April, 2010, 04:14:09 pm
Er, we always cycle on to and off from ferries.   Is there any other way?   ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 17 April, 2010, 04:18:07 pm
Er, we always cycle on to and off from ferries.   Is there any other way?   ;D
Cross shipping by rope?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pancho on 17 April, 2010, 04:29:47 pm
We're worried that there's going to be a shortage of baby sweetcorns imported by air from Thailand.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 17 April, 2010, 04:32:34 pm
The UK service industry will grind to a halt!

Let's make unemployed BNP members change bed pans and clean office blocks instead.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pancho on 17 April, 2010, 04:58:45 pm
Just looked at flight radar....something headed East from Aberdeen, but nothing else north of Spain

EDIT: The Scots one has vanished, must have been a glitch

Or it succumbed to the ash.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 17 April, 2010, 05:46:38 pm
Er, we always cycle on to and off from ferries.   Is there any other way?   ;D

Yes, definitely. They make you walk onto the Stornoway ferry as the metal plates can be lethally slippery with water and diesel.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 17 April, 2010, 05:48:45 pm
Er, we always cycle on to and off from ferries.   Is there any other way?   ;D
Some ferries you ride a train on to. I've walked on to others. But yes, cycling has worked for me, on quite a few occasions, to a variety of destinations. I've been one of over 100 people cycling on to a ferry, more than once.

The ferry companies all seem quite used to it.

Light plane circling low over Reading this afternoon. Only air traffic for a couple of days. Beautiful clear blue sky, with NO CONTRAILS!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: rogerzilla on 17 April, 2010, 05:52:58 pm
I used to love the Torpoint ferry.  As well as riding my bike onto it, I could get a cup of coffee during the crossing (which is free for bikes).  Much more fun than the Tamar Bridge.

The Cremyll passenger ferry also took bikes, but you had to pay for that one and it was a bit awkward lifting your bike down into a small boat.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 17 April, 2010, 05:59:13 pm
Er, we always cycle on to and off from ferries.   Is there any other way?   ;D
Some ferries you ride a train on to. I've walked on to others. But yes, cycling has worked for me, on quite a few occasions, to a variety of destinations. I've been one of over 100 people cycling on to a ferry, more than once.

The ferry companies all seem quite used to it.


I've just remembered a couple of ferries between islands in Orkney that I had to carry the bike on and off from.  No vehicle access!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andrewc on 17 April, 2010, 06:01:42 pm
Er, we always cycle on to and off from ferries.   Is there any other way?   ;D

Yes, definitely. They make you walk onto the Stornoway ferry as the metal plates can be lethally slippery with water and diesel.

I'm sure I've cycled on and off the Stornoway ferry.   They won't let you ride on or off the ferries between Belfast & Liverpool,  bikes go on a special luggage trailer and you are taken to the ferry in a minibus.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andrewc on 17 April, 2010, 06:07:22 pm
Just bumped into a friend*,  hubby is stuck in Barcelona.  If he can't get back in time I've been invited to use his tickets and escort a rather beautiful lady to a couple of concerts next week  :)

*I went to a concert in the week expecting to meet up with the pair of them, she was on her own, dressed up to the nines and insisted on taking me for cocktails afterward...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: mark on 17 April, 2010, 06:09:37 pm
Er, we always cycle on to and off from ferries.   Is there any other way?   ;D

Yes, definitely. They make you walk onto the Stornoway ferry as the metal plates can be lethally slippery with water and diesel.

I'm sure I've cycled on and off the Stornoway ferry.   They won't let you ride on or off the ferries between Belfast & Liverpool,  bikes go on a special luggage trailer and you are taken to the ferry in a minibus.


I've cycled on and off the Ullapool-Stornoway ferry, as well as various other CalMac and Stena Line ferries. For Holyhead-Dublin last spring I was required to take the minibus while my bike went on the luggage trailer. I made it clear that I did not like being separated from my bike.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pancho on 17 April, 2010, 06:16:18 pm
Er, we always cycle on to and off from ferries.   Is there any other way?   ;D

Yes, definitely. They make you walk onto the Stornoway ferry as the metal plates can be lethally slippery with water and diesel.

I saw a chap come a bad cropper as he tried to ride his thin wheeled road bike off the ferry at Cherbourg. My brother and I took the hint and timidly pushed our bikes ashore.

Only to fall off as we rode through the anti-foot-and-mouth sand and disinfectant trough that all vehicles had to pass through.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Adrian on 17 April, 2010, 06:25:10 pm
Not everything is grounded.

A helicopter and a light aircraft came over Chester this morning, not very high and presumably piston engined.

I saw two light aircraft fly over Gatwick, presumably taking the opportunity, this afternoon.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Andrij on 17 April, 2010, 06:27:05 pm
Great pic from b3ta (http://s2.b3ta.com/host/creative/82762/1271355322/NoFlyingAircraft.jpg).
 
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Asterix, the former Gaul. on 17 April, 2010, 06:28:34 pm
There is ash on all the cars in my street.  Like a mini Pompeii.  Except they didn't have cars in Pompeii and there's hardly any ash. Yet. :demon:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 17 April, 2010, 07:10:01 pm
P&O ferries have announced they cannot take anymore foot passengers this weekend; although I suspect this is because they use one bus to take them from the terminal to the ferry and can't physically get any more on; it's no longer possible to walk from the check-in onto many ferries these days.

I would have thought Eurotunnel would seize a business opportunity and hire some coaches to ferry people from Folkestone Station to Calais station;

BTW do they still operate the cycle shuttle service?

We're worried that there's going to be a shortage of baby sweetcorns imported by air from Thailand.

there was some story on the BBC that in Canada this week all the bosses have to buy their secretaries flowers and at this time of year they have to get them all from Holland by air; I can forsee some disappointed bosses...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 17 April, 2010, 07:57:27 pm
Not everything is grounded.

A helicopter and a light aircraft came over Chester this morning, not very high and presumably piston engined.

I saw two light aircraft fly over Gatwick, presumably taking the opportunity, this afternoon.
They are running approved flights (above 500') along the runway. Had a formation of Tiger Moths....
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: oncemore on 17 April, 2010, 08:32:36 pm
Entirely selfish moan.....I just wish I knew whether or not we'll be flying from Gatwick to Egypt at 09.30 Monday. I assume 95% not. And I'd rather not be on the first test flight! But we'd have to leave here 10 hours before departure time and doesn't seem to be easy to be certain yes or no that far in advance.

At least if cancelled, as a package we'll get an alternative or straight full refund.

And could of course be worse.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 17 April, 2010, 08:36:15 pm
Yes it could be.

Ragnarök - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ragnar%C3%B6k)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: bikenerd on 17 April, 2010, 08:41:51 pm
Lots of gliders circling the house this afternoon.  I guess they can fly wherever they want at the moment, although we don't see many planes, the approach to Oxford airport is further west than we are.

The entire conference I was supposed to be going to in China was cancelled.  Climate scientists grounded by atmospheric conditions irony.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: rower40 on 17 April, 2010, 08:46:43 pm
No cheap tickets available on any long-distance trains; a friend of mine had a weekend break booked to Dublin, had to cancel, then planned to take the train to Edinburgh, but all the prices had gone up lots.

But does this mean that the Heathrow/Gatwick/Stansted Expresses are running empty?  Is anyone travelling to/from our airports?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Kathy on 17 April, 2010, 09:06:43 pm
Looking south (towards Gatwick) was wierd today: no contrails! The normally criss-crossed sky was such a perfectly clear blue that it hurt my eyes to look at it.

It's just not natural!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 17 April, 2010, 09:17:16 pm
Around half a million people directly or indirectly employed by aviation in UK are fervently hoping it doesn't go on long. At a cost of £200m a day, just in UK, there are several businesses in aviation already looking shaky. The cash outflow right now is horrendous, and it will get worse. It may well see more than one airline closed permanently.

The airline industry is one of the most heavily subsidised industries in the UK, and around the world. A few of them going bust will be no loss to the majority of people and we will get a few planes out of circulation permenantly which can't be a bad thing. Less noise, less polution, less money coming out of the tax payers coffers.

Really? You are referring, I assume, to the fact that aviation fuel isn't taxed. You're right, it's not. When international aviation treaties were negotiated, no workable method could be found of applying tax evenly worldwide. That is, if you like, a failure of politics, not some subversive trickery of the industry. I'd love you to show me in what other way the industry is 'subsidised'. There are no grants, no other tax breaks, nothing. And extra tax is levied, over and above all normal taxes, directly on the airlines for each ticket sold.

Quote
Of course there is also a human cost if an airline goes bust and people loose their jobs. Welcome to the real world where this happens to people every day in all sorts of industies. I've been made redundant 5 times in the past 20 years. Crap happens to all of us all the time but we just get on with life as well.

Are you trying to suggest that the airline industry is immune to economics, and doesn't see companies go bust? Can I refer you to the 40-odd airlines that have gone bust over the last 18 months? Don't tell me to get real - many of my friends are unemployed now, and some will remain so for a very long time. Many will have to move a long way away from UK to get another job. Many will have double your number of redundancies. Airlines are amongst the least secure employers, especially in UK where there are no, repeat no, government-subsidised companies.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 17 April, 2010, 10:16:34 pm
We dont live under a low level flight path, and this may just be my imagination, but I am enjoying what seems to be a much quieter enviroment. I hope this continues.

Around half a million people directly or indirectly employed by aviation in UK are fervently hoping it doesn't go on long. At a cost of £200m a day, just in UK, there are several businesses in aviation already looking shaky. The cash outflow right now is horrendous, and it will get worse. It may well see more than one airline closed permanently.

And that's before the stranded passengers all start exercising their rights to refunds and compensation under EU Regs 261 and 264. I can see several carriers going to the wall because of this :(.

Indeed.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 17 April, 2010, 10:17:29 pm
I can see refunds, I can't see them getting compensation.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 17 April, 2010, 10:19:18 pm
I can see refunds, I can't see them getting compensation.

I understand that expenses (e.g. hotels) are now due to be paid under new regs. That could be very expensive if/when people exercise their rights.

Of course the cost of staff and leased airplanes does not stop though earnings are cancelled.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 17 April, 2010, 10:22:15 pm
Thats fair enough but I what they won't be able to do is claim compensation for hurt feelings etc etc just because they did not get a flight.

There has been no neglect or deliberate poor service on the part of the airlines, it's a frikin volcano.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: MSeries on 17 April, 2010, 10:23:33 pm
Do the airlines have insurance against this sort of thing ? Does travel insurance cover it ?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 17 April, 2010, 10:26:12 pm
A lot of people must have payed by credit card so there must be some cover on that as well.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 17 April, 2010, 10:26:26 pm
Do the airlines have insurance against this sort of thing ? Does travel insurance cover it ?

I understand that BA does not have such cover for example.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 17 April, 2010, 10:28:51 pm
There has been no neglect or deliberate poor service on the part of the airlines, it's a frikin volcano.

This is what the airlines are saying; however the new regs are, at they stand, it would appear, against them. But note that I am not an expert on the matter!!

In any case the cost to the economy is going to be very significant; and to a sector in difficulty something they don't need.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 17 April, 2010, 10:31:24 pm
Much of the operations in the sector are luxuries with a high environmental cost.  I won't lose any sleep over a few days of loss.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: woollypigs on 17 April, 2010, 10:33:43 pm
Iceland's disruptive volcano - The Big Picture - Boston.com (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/04/icelands_disruptive_volcano.html)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 17 April, 2010, 10:34:11 pm
There has been no neglect or deliberate poor service on the part of the airlines, it's a frikin volcano.

This is what the airlines are saying; however the new regs are, at they stand, it would appear, against them. But note that I am not an expert on the matter!!

In any case the cost to the economy is going to be very significant; and to a sector in difficulty something they don't need.
If they should fail to take care of someone properly due to them being stranded then yes they will get shafted.

The fact that they were stranded in the fist place though is not something they should be compensated for beyond a refund of the fare.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: 2_Flat_Erics on 17 April, 2010, 10:36:40 pm
Around half a million people directly or indirectly employed by aviation in UK are fervently hoping it doesn't go on long. At a cost of £200m a day, just in UK, there are several businesses in aviation already looking shaky. The cash outflow right now is horrendous, and it will get worse. It may well see more than one airline closed permanently.

The airline industry is one of the most heavily subsidised industries in the UK, and around the world. A few of them going bust will be no loss to the majority of people and we will get a few planes out of circulation permenantly which can't be a bad thing. Less noise, less polution, less money coming out of the tax payers coffers.

Really? You are referring, I assume, to the fact that aviation fuel isn't taxed. You're right, it's not. When international aviation treaties were negotiated, no workable method could be found of applying tax evenly worldwide. That is, if you like, a failure of politics, not some subversive trickery of the industry. I'd love you to show me in what other way the industry is 'subsidised'. There are no grants, no other tax breaks, nothing. And extra tax is levied, over and above all normal taxes, directly on the airlines for each ticket sold.

Quote
Of course there is also a human cost if an airline goes bust and people loose their jobs. Welcome to the real world where this happens to people every day in all sorts of industies. I've been made redundant 5 times in the past 20 years. Crap happens to all of us all the time but we just get on with life as well.

Are you trying to suggest that the airline industry is immune to economics, and doesn't see companies go bust? Can I refer you to the 40-odd airlines that have gone bust over the last 18 months? Don't tell me to get real - many of my friends are unemployed now, and some will remain so for a very long time. Many will have to move a long way away from UK to get another job. Many will have double your number of redundancies. Airlines are amongst the least secure employers, especially in UK where there are no, repeat no, government-subsidised companies.



Yes, I am referring to the tax breaks on fuel that the airlines receive. No fuel duty and no VAT on fuel. I recall from a recent report on BBC news 24 that the fuel tax breaks alone save the airlines in excess of £10 billion each year. The fact that this subsidy exits because of a political failure is irrelevant.

Then of course the other big subsidy is the 0 rate VAT on new aircraft over a certain weight. Another political failure? I don't know how much this saves the airline industry each year but i suspect it's a another rather obscene figure.

The subsidies are not direct but they still boil down to a subsidy that other competing industries like the train companies and ferry companies do not benefit from.

Companies that are not in the same privileged position as the airlines go bust every day. It is never nice when people lose jobs but it happens and we all just have to get on with things.

There are all sorts of reasons to reduce the amount of air travel and replace it with other alternative modes. Especially internal and short haul flights where there are generally viable alternatives which often lose out because they can no longer compete on price with the (indirectly) subsidised airlines.

Maybe the current lack of flights will help us to re-evaluate our transport priorities from economic, political and environmental perspectives.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 17 April, 2010, 10:38:27 pm
There has been no neglect or deliberate poor service on the part of the airlines, it's a frikin volcano.

This is what the airlines are saying; however the new regs are, at they stand, it would appear, against them. But note that I am not an expert on the matter!!

In any case the cost to the economy is going to be very significant; and to a sector in difficulty something they don't need.
If they should fail to take care of someone properly due to them being stranded then yes they will get shafted.

The fact that they were stranded in the fist place though is not something they should be compensated for beyond a refund of the fare.

... sure but their costs (well some of them such as staff and airplanes for example) do not go away.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 17 April, 2010, 10:40:38 pm
Oh the operational costs are going to have to be covered somehow for sure.

I suppose survival will depend on what the overheads where in the first place.

Yay for modern business models - only looking a year ahead.

 :sick:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 18 April, 2010, 08:18:29 pm
Pictures have surfaced of turbine blades from Finnish air force F-18s which were in the air when the ash drifted over Finland. They're damaged, but not dangerously so. BUT - these were F404 military turbofans, with a bypass ratio of ca 0.35:1, meaning most of the air (& ash) going into them went through the core. A civil turbofan has a much higher bypass ratio, typically over 5:1, & most of the air - and even more the ash (I'm informed, I think reliably, that the ash, particularly the heavier particles, will tend to go into the bypass air rather than through the core) will therefore not go into the core. This is important: the main source of damage to jet engines from volcanic ash is it melting in the hot core, & being deposited on critical parts such as turbine blades. Ash in bypass air is relatively harmless.

My informant, a former Rolls-Royce engineer (proper one: Masters degree in it 'n all), thinks that the grounding is an overreaction. He doesn't believe the ash cloud is dense enough to be dangerous. Mildly damaging, possibly causing long-term costs to airliners in engines with degraded efficiency unless they have expensive rebuilds, but not dangerous, not like the dense ash clouds which have shut down airliner engines in the past. He thinks it's 'Elf 'n Safety gorn mad . . . (not his choice of words).
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 18 April, 2010, 08:36:33 pm
I'd rather an 'overreaction' which is speculation albeit perhaps informed, than a few airliners dropping out of the sky.   The very reason that air travel is so 'safe' is purely because risks are not taken.   

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 18 April, 2010, 08:43:27 pm
It's a tricky one.

Maybe it's not dense enough for acute catastrophic failure like the BA 747 incident over Indonesia (which flew into the main volcanic plume as I understand it - a much worse proposition), but a few years/months from now when fan blades start failing and other effects surface, would it still seem like an overreaction?

After all - in the 1980s, we decided it was fine to feed sheep brains to cattle. Caution seems reasonable to me.

I have this in my mind:

<pilot_speak>
I'd rather be down here wishing I was up there, than up there wishing I was down here.
</pilot_speak>
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on 18 April, 2010, 09:02:37 pm
I do hope that we're going to present Iceland with a hefty bill for all this.  I don't know, first they pinch all our fish and open fire on our trawlers, then they lose all of our savings, now this.  Some neighbours, eh ?  :(

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 18 April, 2010, 09:05:13 pm
I suspect that the actual density of the cloud at different points is poorly understood.  They know roughly  how much material is up there, and they know roughly the area that it's in, but they probably can't predict accurately which bits are dense, and which bits are less so.  If you hit an unusually dense bit, you are quite possibly buggered.

Also whilst I can see that minor damage to an engine would probably just mean earlier maintenance, how are you going to decide which engines need it?  There's quite possibly no easy method to quantify how much damage has been done to a given engine, so you would have to bring in every plane whose engine may have been exposed to too much ash, and I can't see the airlines appreciating that much.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: oncemore on 18 April, 2010, 09:15:09 pm
Political pressure will quite soon ensure that new evidence, firther detailed consideration, type of ash etc etc is found that WILL allow most flights to resume. Certainly cannot continue a total shutdown beyond next weekend.

National interest will lean on NATs etc.

Too late for us - our hols cancelled. It was carefully timed for herself's birthday to include a sail boat trip on the Nile. We'll get a full refund, but not the point really.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 18 April, 2010, 09:19:02 pm
The Gubbermint has suggested that the Navy may help with the repatriation of Brits stuck abroad...

Has anyone told them that the Navy doesn't actually really have any suitable ships left?  They've been asking for new ones for years but a certain Chancellor kept saying 'no' because he didn't think there was any need for large surface ships...  ::-)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 18 April, 2010, 09:37:28 pm
Pictures have surfaced of turbine blades from Finnish air force F-18s which were in the air when the ash drifted over Finland. They're damaged, but not dangerously so. BUT - these were F404 military turbofans, with a bypass ratio of ca 0.35:1, meaning most of the air (& ash) going into them went through the core. A civil turbofan has a much higher bypass ratio, typically over 5:1, & most of the air - and even more the ash (I'm informed, I think reliably, that the ash, particularly the heavier particles, will tend to go into the bypass air rather than through the core) will therefore not go into the core. This is important: the main source of damage to jet engines from volcanic ash is it melting in the hot core, & being deposited on critical parts such as turbine blades. Ash in bypass air is relatively harmless.

My informant, a former Rolls-Royce engineer (proper one: Masters degree in it 'n all), thinks that the grounding is an overreaction. He doesn't believe the ash cloud is dense enough to be dangerous. Mildly damaging, possibly causing long-term costs to airliners in engines with degraded efficiency unless they have expensive rebuilds, but not dangerous, not like the dense ash clouds which have shut down airliner engines in the past. He thinks it's 'Elf 'n Safety gorn mad . . . (not his choice of words).

The above is possibly true (the bit about ash in the core is); note though that the BA flight that lost all four engines was a 747, I think, and would have flown RB211 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_RB211) engines with a bypass ratio above 4. This shows that such engines can still be affected if they fly through a dense cloud; hence the grounding, until more is known. A research flight flown over the WE has led to the onboard engineer to say that it was, in his professional opinion, potentially quite dangerous in places.

Servicing and overhauling an aeroengine is no mean feat; serious look into these may mean off-the-wing work and all the issues tied to this: impact on flights (grounding; there are only so many spare engines); need for testing following re-mount; costs etc.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 18 April, 2010, 09:43:39 pm
Do people think that the flight bans are looking over-cautious?  One wonders if economic pressures with override any precautionary principles involving the ash danger.  Apparently some airlines have done test flights. 
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 18 April, 2010, 09:48:40 pm
You can't blame businesses for wanting this over as soon as possible - in many cases their very existence is on the line.

Bringing everything to a complete halt over "a risk" is hard to take when your business is haemorrhaging money every day.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 18 April, 2010, 10:04:01 pm
*watches on as this plays out like every other precautionary everything, ever*
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Adrian on 18 April, 2010, 10:11:10 pm
*watches on as this plays out like every other precautionary everything, ever*

Mayor Larry Vaughan/

Those beeches will be open/
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Eccentrica Gallumbits on 18 April, 2010, 10:18:29 pm
The Gubbermint has suggested that the Navy may help with the repatriation of Brits stuck abroad...

Has anyone told them that the Navy doesn't actually really have any suitable ships left?  They've been asking for new ones for years but a certain Chancellor kept saying 'no' because he didn't think there was any need for large surface ships...  ::-)
The Tartan Army chartered a submarine to get to Mexico in 1970 - maybe the Navy could borrow that.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 18 April, 2010, 10:54:05 pm
Do people think that the flight bans are looking over-cautious?  One wonders if economic pressures with override any precautionary principles involving the ash danger.  Apparently some airlines have done test flights.  

Lufthansa has flown 10 aircrafts; AF has flown an A320 and more recently a 777. All went well. Lufthansa went a bit further, challenging the numerical model and the associated conclusions drawn by the British research centre. Switzerland has started its own tests. Whilst the French airspace South of a line Bordeaux-Nice is open in France, the Spanish airspace should be closed. Specialists do know that ash is bad; what they do not know is how bad the ash concentration at any given time and location is, and therefore the precaution principle governs.

France is now opening 9 civilian airports (and has offered to open 5 militaries) in the South and using trains and coaches to move people. Aircrafts have started to head "home" and new flights are scheduled from these points. I guess the UK could use Scotland; assuming the train services worked okay.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: nuttycyclist on 18 April, 2010, 11:53:17 pm
I'd rather an 'overreaction' which is speculation albeit perhaps informed, than a few airliners dropping out of the sky.   The very reason that air travel is so 'safe' is purely because risks are not taken.   

I had this discussion with Mrs Nutty this weekend, while we were laying on the grass picnicing in Hartfield Forest and watching the lack of air travel from Gatwick (other than the helicopter constantly circling us).

Clear blue skies and no sign of ash.  None had fallen on the car overnight either.



I'd rather a safety grounding than a flight path going down with the loss of plane after plane.

Yes it's a frustration for travellers stranded.  Yes it's a loss of economy/jobs for airlines & partners.  But it might have been me up there...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 19 April, 2010, 12:03:51 am
The subsidies are not direct but they still boil down to a subsidy that other competing industries like the train companies and ferry companies do not benefit from.

The UK rail industry receives huge direct subsidies. train red diesel is low-rate VAT.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 19 April, 2010, 03:50:39 am
Duty, not VAT.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mike r on 19 April, 2010, 04:26:13 am
My girlfriend and I have just returned to Germany from London, a day and a half later than planned. Thank god for the channel tunnel, and supportive parents. My girlfriend starts her exams in 3 hours!!!

We were lucky to get one of the last seats on the last train today. The eurostar website was a pain and it took several attempts to get it to work.

Eurostar to Brussels, then a local train to the German border and then picked up by her parents.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 19 April, 2010, 07:04:51 am
Airlines are starting to declare that the skies are safe for flying...  They've sent up empty planes and declared that they came back "without a scratch".    The Germans and the Dutch are spearheading this little campaign and putting pressure on their various air safety agencies.  :facepalm:

The Met Office sent up a plane - and it hit a dense patch of ash.  Significant damage - and unable to say where these will be.

Fine, if the Germans and the Dutch want to fly, let them - but not in our airspace.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on 19 April, 2010, 07:07:06 am
Apparently the last time this volcano erupted, in the 70's, it went on for 6 months.  The thing is, there were plenty of planes flying across Europe in those days too, so how come we didn't have this outcome then ?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Rapples on 19 April, 2010, 07:11:14 am
Jeremy knows why ;)

 Hounded by the ash cloud on my escape from Colditz to Blighty | Jeremy Clarkson - Times Online  (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/jeremy_clarkson/article7100772.ece)
Quote
It won’t be a volcano that ends man’s existence on this planet. It’ll be the no-win no-fee lawyers. They are the ones who brought Europe to a halt last week. They are the ones who made a simple trip from Berlin to London into a five-country, all-day hammer blow on your licence fee. They are the ones who must be stopped.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: David Martin on 19 April, 2010, 08:48:03 am
Airlines are starting to declare that the skies are safe for flying...  They've sent up empty plance and
The Met Office sent up a plane - and it hit a dense patch of ash.  Significant damage - and unable to say where these will be.

Fine, if the Germans and the Dutch want to fly, let them - but not in our airspace.

For once I was impressed by the BBC newsreader. He pulled the FlyBe boss apart on this. 'You sent your plane into a gap in the clouds. BA and Lufthansa flew planes under the cloud. Noone knows how the cloud shifts and you could end up flying into a gap that closes on you as plane radar cannot detect the ash clouds and you end up in a dense patch of ash. What happens then?'

Well briefed and good questioning.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Charlotte on 19 April, 2010, 09:15:11 am
Apparently (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/stranded_monty_python_legend_john_iOhNOEev2Ny3aVKSDTOzDM), John Cleese paid 30,000 kroner (about £3.3k) for a Noggy taxi to take him from Oslo to Brussels where he had a Eurostar seat home booked.  I have visions of him reprising the role of headmaster Mr Stimpson from Clockwise...

Quote
It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand.

;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 19 April, 2010, 09:17:00 am
I camped all weekend near the Gatwick flightpath.  Lovely clear skies, satellite watching on Saturday night, and all that spoiled it was the noisy cars zooming too fast up the narrow lane.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: pcolbeck on 19 April, 2010, 09:19:52 am
Apparently the last time this volcano erupted, in the 70's, it went on for 6 months.  The thing is, there were plenty of planes flying across Europe in those days too, so how come we didn't have this outcome then ?

It doesn't keep putting the same type of crap high into the atmosphere all the time (its worse at the start) and also it depends on which direction the wind is blowing as to if it affects Europe.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 19 April, 2010, 09:27:45 am
I think that what is making airlines fidgety is the fact that the decision to fly or not is currently based on a judgment call because there is limited [old] or no data to say what is a safe threshold [this is a fact; I am not questioning the current decision]. As it stands it is: ash = grounding. With the amplitude of the crisis there is more pressure to refine that criterion; in other words people may wish they had spent more research money on this earlier on, in terms of the modelling but also on engines; hence the current tests. It seems that what governments and airlines are working on is the definition of safe corridors and windows over and during which to allow flights. I don't think airlines are declaring the skies clear, they are under financial pressures and are trying to evaluate the impact that the ash cloud could have on their hardware and their operation, with safety in mind (this is very, very much at the core of that industry). This is why AF, Lufthansa and KLM flew test flights this WE; and to test the "window" approach I mentioned here above. Having said that the accuracy of the model being what it is, it is not easy! I also understand that we are looking at continental and southern Europe only.  
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: hatler on 19 April, 2010, 09:33:42 am
I camped all weekend near the Gatwick flightpath.  Lovely clear skies, satellite watching on Saturday night, and all that spoiled it was the noisy cars zooming too fast up the narrow lane.
Wildly OT, but which campsite ?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 19 April, 2010, 09:34:10 am
Airlines are starting to declare that the skies are safe for flying...  They've sent up empty plance and
The Met Office sent up a plane - and it hit a dense patch of ash.  Significant damage - and unable to say where these will be.

Fine, if the Germans and the Dutch want to fly, let them - but not in our airspace.

For once I was impressed by the BBC newsreader. He pulled the FlyBe boss apart on this. 'You sent your plane into a gap in the clouds. BA and Lufthansa flew planes under the cloud. Noone knows how the cloud shifts and you could end up flying into a gap that closes on you as plane radar cannot detect the ash clouds and you end up in a dense patch of ash. What happens then?'


Large gas turbine jet engines are designed to operate (best) at certain altitudes, say 30,000', which is a major issue right now. Turboprop engines can fly lower, reasonably efficiently I believe. One point being discussed is whether to allow turboprops at lower altitudes I heard. For part of FlyBe's fleet this could work (except for their EMBRAERs I guess). I don't know whether this is what the company spokesman had in mind though. Weather forecasters are also trying to define corridors snd time windows (see above). Finally it was proposed to have sentinels in the skies to monitor the viability of these windows (planes equipped with the right sensors to support the model predictions). What I am trying to say is that this hypothesis is not entirely "wacky"; though how feasible it is in practise I don't know.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 19 April, 2010, 09:38:39 am
I camped all weekend near the Gatwick flightpath.  Lovely clear skies, satellite watching on Saturday night, and all that spoiled it was the noisy cars zooming too fast up the narrow lane.
Wildly OT, but which campsite ?

Not a campsite as such.  We were with the Surrey DA of the Camping & Caravanning Club at Blacklands Farm, a Girl Guide activity centre above Weir Wood Reservoir, near East Grinstead.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 09:46:53 am
I'd rather an 'overreaction' which is speculation albeit perhaps informed, than a few airliners dropping out of the sky.   The very reason that air travel is so 'safe' is purely because risks are not taken.  

I'd rather a safety grounding than a flight path going down with the loss of plane after plane.


On what evidence do you base your contention that, if we fly, it will result in aluminium raining from the sky? Saftey regulation by 'just in case' measures inevitably result in nothing at all happening. How safe is safe enough? using this methodology, there is no such thing as safe enough. Yet safety, in anything, is always a compromise between risk and reward. Intelligently applied safety regulation is dynamic and relies on evidence, not assumption.

In this case, we have an ancient rule that says 'in the event of volcanic debris, you shall not fly'. It was never written, but it comes from engine manufacturers' advice that volcanic debris is highly damaging and not to be entered. However, that advice was issued when our only way of detecting such debris was visual. A volcano erupted, we could see the plume and we slapped a 200nm safety zone around the visible plume and said 'don't fly in that'. Wherever that rule has been applied and complied with, we have never had an incident due to volcanic debris ingestion. Now we are in a situation where we view and measure volcanic debris using millimetric radars, thermal imaging, and satellites working in all kinds of radiation bands. We then stick that data in the most powerful computers we have and ask them, 'where is this stuff now, where is it going, and where could it be in 48 hours from now?'. Then we bung a 200nm buffer zone around that and say 'don't fly in that, 'cos you might die'. The inevitable result is you wipe out a quarter of the globe as far as available airspace goes, without a shred of evidence that doing so has avoided risk or improved safety. All you've done is extended the previously sensible avoidance area to something much, much larger. Because you can. And woe betide anyone who argues otherwise, because they are the Agents Of Satan and must not be trusted.

Bollocks.

At last, we have people and machinery getting out there and measuring the empirical effects of this stuff. We also have NERC using its terrific technology in the same airspace to see what's there. NERC say, 'there's lots of muck here'. Aircraft operators and engineers say, 'but it's in such small concentrations it's doing nothing bad to our engines'. So, politicians, what now?

Expect stalemate and a lot of bottom-shuffling for a good deal longer. Anticipate bankruptcies and job losses - and not just in aviation. Look forward to an eventual pragmatic solution that will acknowledge that the current regime is too restrictive, and regretting the 'inconvenience' of its application, but saying everything's ok now - please get back in your aeroplanes. Wonder at the fact that all your holiday jets are now flown by American airlines, 'cos there's no British ones left.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 19 April, 2010, 09:50:05 am
Wonder at the fact that all your holiday jets are now flown by American airlines, 'cos there's no British ones left.

Alternatively, curse yourself and your media and your fellow passengers for demanding stupidly low prices that then created an unsustainable level of flying?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: hatler on 19 April, 2010, 09:50:41 am
I camped all weekend near the Gatwick flightpath.  Lovely clear skies, satellite watching on Saturday night, and all that spoiled it was the noisy cars zooming too fast up the narrow lane.
Wildly OT, but which campsite ?

Not a campsite as such.  We were with the Surrey DA of the Camping & Caravanning Club at Blacklands Farm, a Girl Guide activity centre above Weir Wood Reservoir, near East Grinstead.
Cool !  That must have been fantastically peaceful as compared to normal.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 19 April, 2010, 09:52:13 am
Jeremy knows why ;)

 Hounded by the ash cloud on my escape from Colditz to Blighty | Jeremy Clarkson - Times Online  (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/jeremy_clarkson/article7100772.ece)
Quote
It won’t be a volcano that ends man’s existence on this planet. It’ll be the no-win no-fee lawyers. They are the ones who brought Europe to a halt last week. They are the ones who made a simple trip from Berlin to London into a five-country, all-day hammer blow on your licence fee. They are the ones who must be stopped.

Christ!  Is that sort of crap now published in the Times?   A racist, sexist, nay-saying lager lout expressing his bigoted opinions in what was the flagship broadsheet!  

Airlines are starting to declare that the skies are safe for flying...  They've sent up empty plance and
The Met Office sent up a plane - and it hit a dense patch of ash.  Significant damage - and unable to say where these will be.

Fine, if the Germans and the Dutch want to fly, let them - but not in our airspace.

For once I was impressed by the BBC newsreader. He pulled the FlyBe boss apart on this. 'You sent your plane into a gap in the clouds. BA and Lufthansa flew planes under the cloud. Noone knows how the cloud shifts and you could end up flying into a gap that closes on you as plane radar cannot detect the ash clouds and you end up in a dense patch of ash. What happens then?'

Well briefed and good questioning.

I saw something about monitoring with a heavily modified plane with all sorts of sensors hanging from the wings.   Science and caution over vested interest any day for me.  
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 09:53:25 am
Wonder at the fact that all your holiday jets are now flown by American airlines, 'cos there's no British ones left.

Alternatively, curse yourself and your media and your fellow passengers for demanding stupidly low prices that then created an unsustainable level of flying?

WTF has that to do with a bloody volcano? Listen, aviation exists. It follows commercial imperatives. You are not going to wish it away. Once this is all over, things will return to something like the previous normality - but names and faces will have changed. And for absolutely no good reason whatsoever.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 19 April, 2010, 10:00:44 am
And for absolutely no good reason whatsoever.

I think it's probably inescapable that Northern European-based airlines are at somewhat of a disadvantage compare to those based on other parts of the planet. With the best will in the world, a damn great eruption is going to cause them business/financial/logistics issues that the Americans can largely sidestep.

Are we being precautionary ? Yes, quite rightly. Overly so ? Maybe, and as has been said there'll be profound pressure to review the current advice.  If the evidence supports a change then fair enough.  If it doesn't, or there isn't any yet, then changing the advice prematurely might be considered brave.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 19 April, 2010, 10:05:29 am
I bet pprune (http://www.pprune.org/) is busy.

*checks*

Yup  :D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 10:09:07 am
No-one (or no-one sensible) is arguing for a precipitate and 'brave' rewriting of the current advice. But it has become blindingly obvious that the current advice has not kept up with the technology for detecting what that advice applies to! The situation has not previously arisen in such a densly-aviated area, and now a great many people are going back to their desks to determine what exactly they want that advice to mean, how it should be framed and defined, and how it should accommodate ever more capable detection technology.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 10:09:59 am
I bet pprune (http://www.pprune.org/) is busy.

*checks*

Yup  :D

It's keeping me busy too. But I have time on my hands just now.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 19 April, 2010, 10:14:20 am
No-one (or no-one sensible) is arguing for a precipitate and 'brave' rewriting of the current advice. But it has become blindingly obvious that the current advice has not kept up with the technology for detecting what that advice applies to! The situation has not previously arisen in such a densly-aviated area, and now a great many people are going back to their desks to determine what exactly they want that advice to mean, how it should be framed and defined, and how it should accommodate ever more capable detection technology.

So we can expect the advice to be revised when the evidence is in and the analysis done. Just as it should be :)

Maybe this should all have been done beforehand, but I'll bet there are many, many things where there is cautious advice in place that's based on old best-guess analysis, and that no-one worries about until it bites them on the arse.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 19 April, 2010, 10:16:48 am
WTF has that to do with a bloody volcano?

The volcano has exposed how perilous some business plans are? Although to be fair, we do already know that from the number of failures of airlines.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 19 April, 2010, 10:18:45 am
WTF has that to do with a bloody volcano?

The volcano has exposed how perilous some business plans are?

Most businesses would be challenged given the appropriate cas de force majeure (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_majeure), wouldn't they?! I don't think this is a very solid argument to be fair!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 10:30:49 am
WTF has that to do with a bloody volcano?

The volcano has exposed how perilous some business plans are? Although to be fair, we do already know that from the number of failures of airlines.

Show me a business that can survive for long with no revenue but extra outgoings. Show me a business plan that can survive that. It would be worth no more than an election manifesto.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 19 April, 2010, 10:33:40 am
So they are all going to go bust then  ???
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 19 April, 2010, 10:38:04 am
Airlines are starting to declare that the skies are safe for flying...  They've sent up empty planes and declared that they came back "without a scratch".    The Germans and the Dutch are spearheading this little campaign and putting pressure on their various air safety agencies.  :facepalm:

The Met Office sent up a plane - and it hit a dense patch of ash.  Significant damage - and unable to say where these will be.

Fine, if the Germans and the Dutch want to fly, let them - but not in our airspace.

With the eruption still continuing heterogenous ash concentrations, is going to be one of the main issues.

This is an interesting graphic - animated boundary layer (at end of page)
Met Office: Icelandic volcano - latest updates (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano/updates.html)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 19 April, 2010, 10:45:23 am
So they are all going to go bust then  ???

Beyond a few days (4-5) many will be in trouble (getting there); past a week or two some may well be starting to do just that, yes. This was reported in the news.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 19 April, 2010, 10:47:57 am
So not all then.

Possibly the ones with weaker business, possibly the ones benefitting most from the relative unsustainability of current flying? Like I said up thread?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 19 April, 2010, 10:50:50 am
I'm pretty sure a robust business ought to handle a week of outage.  Unless its contingency pot had been strip-mined for profits...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 19 April, 2010, 10:51:16 am
Apparently (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/stranded_monty_python_legend_john_iOhNOEev2Ny3aVKSDTOzDM), John Cleese paid 30,000 kroner (about £3.3k) for a Noggy taxi to take him from Oslo to Brussels where he had a Eurostar seat home booked.  I have visions of him reprising the role of headmaster Mr Stimpson from Clockwise...

Dr. Larrington was also travelling from Oslo to Brussels.  I wonder if she persuaded Mr. Cleese to give her a lift :P
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 19 April, 2010, 10:52:52 am
I think this post on pprune sums up for me the dilemma of the business:

So, we decide to fly again with volcanic ash in the atmosphere across our route- how is this going to work?

1. The Met Office/VAAC will continue to publish their best assessment of path and area affected by volvanic ash, as is their duty; it will be depicted on SIGWX charts, NOTAMS and in other pre-flight planning information.

2. Our Ops Manuals and Airplane & Engine OEM's advise that we must avoid flight into 'known' areas of volcanic ash. Commander's then have the dilema of deciding how to operate their flights in the face of a known hazard to flight. Will there be a derogation issued by our airlines and respective NAA's that pilot's can fly into 'known' areas of volcanic ash?

3. As a sound precautionary principle, after we do start flying en-mass, we will, at least for a period of time, require a check of each aircraft & engines inaccordance with the engine manufacturers procedures. This will be disruptive enough, as a previous engineering posts highlighted its not that straight forward. I don' think the few test flights that have been conducted are sufficient to say this isn't required.

What about engine/airframe warranty issues?

4. How will the leasing companies react to companies flying their aircraft into areas of known volcanic ash, and what agreements will be required to defer risk from the lessor to the lessee? Return conditions are the airlines responsibility I know, but I would think consultation is required.

5. Insurance? some agreement will presumably be required with our insurers on the above. If the airlines do accept the risk do they have sufficient capital in their business to do that for a large fleet of airplanes?

6. NATS/Eurocontrol?, a derogation will be required to permit IFR clearances to be issued into areas of know Volcanic ash.

7. And as EU operators how is this going to coordinated across Europe and a common approach established?

And I am sure there are many other issues I can't think of right now that are going to conspire against us in the coming days. Is there anyone out there that can tell us what's happening in the airlines, insurance, leasing companies and regulatory bodies regard to the above.


We don't know enough about this do we? But we didn't know enough about it before it was an issue - and it didn't bother us then, it's only a problem that we don't know enough about it now that we need to know all about it. IYSWIM.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Morrisette on 19 April, 2010, 10:59:30 am
What this crisis is missing is a picture of a plucky Icelander slogging through piles of volcanic ash on a bicycle. Anyone got one?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 11:06:52 am
So not all then.

Possibly the ones with weaker business, possibly the ones benefitting most from the relative unsustainability of current flying? Like I said up thread?

There are businesses at the weaker end of the scale in any sector of commerce, from corner shops to banks. Many go bust in the normal run of events, most don't. Imposing regulatory closure on a legitimate business' activities will harm any business, and businesses that are otherwise healthy will be driven closer and closer to the edge. Airlines are particularly (though not uniquely) cash-flow dependent, and always have been. Even with large sums 'in the bank', continued existence requires commitment of funds well in advance of resources being required. That commitment needs the explicit support of the company's banks, unless the company is a government-sponsored one. There are none of those in UK. No bank will give open-ended support to a business that has no revenue, no matter how well-managed it has been in the past. Therefore all non-nationalised airlines are vulnerable, just some more than others. Whether any or all go bust is simply a question of how long this lasts. Most will survive a week or 10 days. Some will fold very shortly after that. But even the strongest will struggle if this goes significantly beyond a couple of weeks.

Edit: there are a great many other industries that rely on aviation too, which will also suffer significant harm if this goes on for long. Don't give me any guff about us all having to live without high-speed airfreight, or longhaul holidays. They will all be available after this is over, and at much the same price they are now. They will simply be provided by companies based in territories not affected by this crisis. To all intents and purposes, that means US companies.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jacomus on 19 April, 2010, 11:09:56 am
I'm pretty sure a robust business ought to handle a week of outage.  Unless its contingency pot had been strip-mined for profits...

We recently have done an analysis of our model.

If all money stops today, in our current situation we can survive for 3 months with no revenue before we go to the wall.

Back in the Bad Old Days we were running about 1 week from failure and we only survived because my boss propped the company up using his personal savings to pay our wages and keep the lights on. Fortunately he only had to do that once, because he couldn't do it twice.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: pcolbeck on 19 April, 2010, 11:15:41 am
I suspect the arm of our business that installs video conferencing solutions will see an upturn as a result of this.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 19 April, 2010, 11:20:56 am
(http://enemiesofreason.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/expshut1.jpg) (http://enemiesofreason.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/expshut21.jpg)

Teh ironeez, they hurtz mi brane.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 19 April, 2010, 11:24:00 am
Just heard traffic reports.  Eurostar and Eurotunnel running extra trains.  Ferries running to time with some spaces available.  Continent not quite so cut off, after all.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 11:26:25 am
I'm pretty sure a robust business ought to handle a week of outage.  Unless its contingency pot had been strip-mined for profits...

We recently have done an analysis of our model.

If all money stops today, in our current situation we can survive for 3 months with no revenue before we go to the wall.

Back in the Bad Old Days we were running about 1 week from failure and we only survived because my boss propped the company up using his personal savings to pay our wages and keep the lights on. Fortunately he only had to do that once, because he couldn't do it twice.

For a company the size of BA to last three months without revenue, it would probably require something in the region of £5 billion in liquidity. There is no way its accountants would sanction that amount of static capital. Like most airlines, it will have few saleable assets - all its aeroplanes and properties will be leased. Those leases will be paid monthly - around $500k to $1.2m a month per aeroplane (BA has approximately 230 aeroplanes), say £150m a month. Its 45,000 staff will cost about £140m a month in pay. Direct operating costs of its aircraft will reduce, but won't be eliminated. Payments on its fuel contracts, hotels, insurance, buildings and a host of other things will continue. And on the last day of the crisis, they will still need to show their financiers that they can service a $10bn-a-year fuel habit, so they can't plan to run down to their last few quid. Layoffs will start within a couple of weeks. Just a few at first, but in thousands before long. Reduction of expensive facilities like engineering and pilot training will happen quite quickly if there's any hint of this being an extended hiatus - and will cost money to reactivate.

Airlines eat money more voraciously than they eat fuel. None can survive for long without income.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 19 April, 2010, 11:31:29 am
For a company the size of BA to last three months without revenue, it would probably require something in the region of £5 billion in liquidity. There is no way its accountants would sanction that amount of static capital. Like most airlines, it will have few saleable assets - all its aeroplanes and properties will be leased.

There's the problem.

Companies run with sufficient reserves (just) for the good times.  No Plan B.  I suppose it's a calculated risk - and this time they may be on the wrong end of the odds.

In the old days of state carriers, the backstop would have been the Treasury, I suppose.  With great profit comes greater risk...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 19 April, 2010, 11:34:44 am
With finite fuel supplies comes risk. Make the money now before we are all grounded in 50-100 years time.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 19 April, 2010, 11:36:42 am
With finite fuel supplies comes risk. Make the money now before we are all grounded in 50-100 years time.

I'm sure this is already loooked at (synthetic fuels). But this is beyond the point here...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 11:40:59 am
MV, actually there are several Plans B (and on...), but no-one anticipated the current convergence of inadequate regulation, inadequate research and excess risk-aversion! We assess, quantify and train for risk in so many areas of aviation, but for some bizarre reason we have never properly assessed and quantified the effects and risks of volcanic debris. As the industry and its regulators are left with their trousers down, it's (disastrously) up to non-expert politicians, their PR advisors and other flunkies to decide what is and what is not safe. Unsurprisingly, none will declare that anything except total abstention from aviation is safe.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 19 April, 2010, 11:44:13 am
for some bizarre reason we have never properly assessed and quantified the effects and risks of volcanic debris.
Tim, it is interesting that that hasn't been done - given the BA 747 that nearly crashed 18 years ago, several other incidents and the air industry's exceptional approach to safety.

Any theories as to why that might be?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tom B on 19 April, 2010, 11:44:34 am
Virgin, I believe, also run a train company. Presumably this is making more money than it was a week ago. Was there anything stopping other airlines from diversifying?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 19 April, 2010, 11:50:40 am
MV, actually there are several Plans B (and on...), but no-one anticipated the current convergence of inadequate regulation, inadequate research and excess risk-aversion!

Of course.  Otherwise it would have been factored in.  No matter what you plan for as realistic risk, something will bite you.  If you have a business model that falls over with 10 days of inactivity, then in the long run you're dead.  If you don't, then in the short term you're likely also dead of course ;)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 11:51:59 am
for some bizarre reason we have never properly assessed and quantified the effects and risks of volcanic debris.
Tim, it is interesting that that hasn't been done - given the BA 747 that nearly crashed 18 years ago, several other incidents and the air industry's exceptional approach to safety.

Any theories as to why that might be?

Yes - as I explained earlier, the reaction to that incident, and KLM's similar one in Alaska (IIRC), was to define avoidance areas based on visible volcanic plumes. The engine manufacturers at the time examined the engines and determined what damage volcanic ash can do and by what mechanisms. Their statements back then were, basically, don't go into this stuff. Of course, what they meant was the stuff that could be seen with the equipment available back then. As that didn't really inconvenience anyone too much, no-one saw the need to assess just how much exposure to what concentrations of which types of volcanic emissions would be ok, and what engineering and engine management mitigations would increase the safety margins. That is now coming back to bite us firmly on the arse.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 19 April, 2010, 11:55:46 am
Let's get a measure of realism about this rather than it turning into a blame game.

Firstly, we know what the ash can do to a jet engine:  We also know that it might be possible to restart the engines in certain circumstances, but, there is no guaranteed formula to allow this.

Secondly, we know that the effect of nature, an ongoing volcanic eruption and weather conditions causing the distribution of said ash suspended in the atmosphere at a level where commercial airliners normally fly.

Thirdly, we don't know exactly where and when the ash might exist because it is invisible to the naked eye, and to the equipment carried on commercial airliners, making it impossible for a crew to spot and avoid.

Forget the business model.   Who has the hubris of a banker to send planes full of people up?   It seems to me that the risk assessment, something that the airline industry normally claims that they are incredibly strong on, has been well made.   I certainly wouldn't want to send up hundreds of aircraft full of people if I couldn't be sure of their safety.   Businessmen are worried about money.   I'm far more concerned about the value of life.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 19 April, 2010, 12:02:03 pm
Up until Thursday it would have been "Yes, we should really do that investigation on volcanic ash we've been talking about for the last 18 years since Flight 9, but it's really expensive and we haven't needed it in that time so we'll think about it again next year."

Friday: "Bollocks."

Hindsight is 20:20.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Asterix, the former Gaul. on 19 April, 2010, 12:02:52 pm
Quote
Let's get a measure of realism about this rather than it turning into a blame game.


IATA are blaming the 'governments'. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8629127.stm)
Quote
Forget the business model.   Who has the hubris of a banker to send planes full of people up?

The answer is obvious: we send plane loads of bankers up to see what happens.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 12:03:32 pm
MV, actually there are several Plans B (and on...), but no-one anticipated the current convergence of inadequate regulation, inadequate research and excess risk-aversion!

Of course.  Otherwise it would have been factored in.  No matter what you plan for as realistic risk, something will bite you.  If you have a business model that falls over with 10 days of inactivity, then in the long run you're dead.  If you don't, then in the short term you're likely also dead of course ;)

Well, yes - sort of! Actually, I doubt there are many businesses of any kind which plan for extended (in the terms of their revenue cycle) periods of inactivity. I used to run a narrowboat hire business which was, inevitably, inactive throughout much of the winter. We could and did plan for that, and our major outgoings were planned to accommodate the annual variations in revenue. However, we could not easily manage to absorb an extended period of inactivity imposed on us from outside, as we discovered when the canals were clsoed in May 2001 due to Foot and Mouth disease (which was another example of government crisis mismanagement). We survived that, just, but were dealt another blow when 9/11 happened and all our US and Canadian customers cancelled! We survived that too, as Brits cancelled their overseas holidays and came to us, but it all got very close to the edge.

Right now, this is an expensive but survivable crisis for UK aviation. There are unlikely to be silver linings to this cloud of the sort that rescued my business. The inadequacies of research and regulation I referred to earlier mean that there is no defined method of determining when it is 'safe' to fly, and thus the decision making process is crippled and will take a long time to develop. It may be too late for UK aviation by then.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 19 April, 2010, 12:03:37 pm
Let's get a measure of realism about this rather than it turning into a blame game.

Firstly, we know what the ash can do to a jet engine:  We also know that it might be possible to restart the engines in certain circumstances, but, there is no guaranteed formula to allow this.

Secondly, we know that the effect of nature, an ongoing volcanic eruption and weather conditions causing the distribution of said ash suspended in the atmosphere at a level where commercial airliners normally fly.

Thirdly, we don't know exactly where and when the ash might exist because it is invisible to the naked eye, and to the equipment carried on commercial airliners, making it impossible for a crew to spot and avoid.

Forget the business model.   Who has the hubris of a banker to send planes full of people up?   It seems to me that the risk assessment, something that the airline industry normally claims that they are incredibly strong on, has been well made.   I certainly wouldn't want to send up hundreds of aircraft full of people if I couldn't be sure of their safety.   Businessmen are worried about money.   I'm far more concerned about the value of life.

^^^^^^
This  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 19 April, 2010, 12:05:05 pm
Agree with PB.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 19 April, 2010, 12:09:33 pm
Firstly, we know what the ash can do to a jet engine:  

This is the weak point. We know what high concentrations of ash can do - but we don't know for sure the effects of low concentrations such as those over us right now.

Tim - how are your Procedure Manuals worded? Is the prune posting accurate - in implying that the wording states you should avoid flying into a "known area" of volcanic dust? If that's the case, then it's pretty cut and dried - even if the airspace was open; the SigWx charts would show the area of volcanic dust, which you cannot enter, which would effectively stop you flying, no?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 19 April, 2010, 12:14:03 pm
Firstly, we know what the ash can do to a jet engine:  

This is the weak point. We know what high concentrations of ash can do - but we don't know for sure the effects of low concentrations such as those over us right now.


Well, it is the weak point I agree, but not for the reason you give.   The problem is that the cloud density is not uniform.   It is spread thin and thick, yet still invisible regardless of density.  The higher density pockets are regarded as sufficiently dense to pose a significant risk.   On this basis they simply do not know how much ash they are flying through without specialist equipment not fitted to commercial airliners.   

It's not the sort of risk I'd like to take.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 12:14:29 pm
Let's get a measure of realism about this rather than it turning into a blame game.
etc...

Our problem is the perception that any exposure to volcanic debris is inevitably going to result in engine flame-outs and the loss of any aircraft that flies near it. That perception is informed only by the experience of BA009 and the KLM flight, both of which flew (at night) into the visible plumes of active volcanoes around which there were no avoidance areas. Given that volcanoes are active around the world the whole time, it is obvious that aero engines are exposed to volcanic contamination every time they fly. Therefore there is clearly a sliding scale of contamination (both in type and concentration) which at one end (or, rather, at some undefined point between zero and rather more than background level) is completely ok and at the other is completely unsafe. At the moment, we are biasing our reaction to the 'completely unsafe' case - but we do not have, or cannot demonstrate, the evidence to say why. Without that evidence, we might just as well give up flying because it can never, ever be assessed as safe.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 19 April, 2010, 12:17:29 pm
At the moment, we are biasing our reaction to the 'completely unsafe' case - but we do not have, or cannot demonstrate, the evidence to say why.

The reason is that we don't know otherwise for all places where planes might go, as PB notes.

Quote
Without that evidence, we might just as well give up flying because it can never, ever be assessed as safe.

Well, there is a difference between allowing loads of flights through a known volcanic cloud and everyday flying.  If we're sure that the cloud conditions are not significantly different from normal flight then there'd be no problem.  But I'm not sure that we are...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 12:35:48 pm
Firstly, we know what the ash can do to a jet engine:  

This is the weak point. We know what high concentrations of ash can do - but we don't know for sure the effects of low concentrations such as those over us right now.

Tim - how are your Procedure Manuals worded? Is the prune posting accurate - in implying that the wording states you should avoid flying into a "known area" of volcanic dust? If that's the case, then it's pretty cut and dried - even if the airspace was open; the SigWx charts would show the area of volcanic dust, which you cannot enter, which would effectively stop you flying, no?

Essentially, that's correct. The problem is that we are now able to detect volcanic emissions at far lower concentrations than we used to, and so the areas deemed to be contaminated are much larger than would previously been the case. So we are avoiding far larger areas of airspace than would previously been required, but we are not improving flight safety by doing so. Hence we need data to determine exactly what kinds, and in what concentrations, of volcanic debris we should be avoiding.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 12:40:53 pm
Well, there is a difference between allowing loads of flights through a known volcanic cloud and everyday flying.  If we're sure that the cloud conditions are not significantly different from normal flight then there'd be no problem.  But I'm not sure that we are...

And so we go on. How safe does something have to be to be declared acceptable? We have been flying through this stuff for many years, but our detection technology wasn't sufficient to show it. However, our maintenace regime was entirely adequate to cope with it, and is constantly improving, to the extent that we now get up to 35,000 hours out of our engines 'on the wing'. But now we can see more stuff, so we're going to avoid stuff that previously we couldn't see. To what benefit?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 19 April, 2010, 12:43:29 pm
For a company the size of BA to last three months without revenue, it would probably require something in the region of £5 billion in liquidity. There is no way its accountants would sanction that amount of static capital. Like most airlines, it will have few saleable assets - all its aeroplanes and properties will be leased. ...
The problem with that theory is that someone, somewhere, has to do what you say the accountants won't sanction, or there won't be any physical assets. Someone has to own them.

If one starts looking around, one soon finds that the majority of airliners are on the balance sheets of the airlines, either owned directly, or via a leasing vehicle. E.g. Easyjet, end of last FY -
97 aircraft on the balance sheet, of which 91 were owned.
52 leased.

Ryanair -
140 owned
41 leased

Now, if we look at BA's balance sheet, from the 2008/9 Annual Report, we see that it has physical assets of £7233 million, of which £266 mn is equipment, £971 mn is property, & £5996 mn is fleet. It seems BA does own a lot of aircraft.

They give a breakdown: -
Owned: £2355 mn
Finance leased: £2004 mn
Hire purchase: £1342 mn
& £115 mn others.
Note that the above is the depreciated value, so does not represent replacement cost by new aircraft, which would be much more.
It has capital expenditure commitments of £4793 mn for 62 aircraft. The current fleet is 231 aircraft, with an average age of 11.5 years.

I think that's pretty normal for airlines. Few of them, & those mostly small, lease their entire fleets.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 19 April, 2010, 12:46:52 pm
Let's get a measure of realism about this rather than it turning into a blame game.
etc...

Our problem is the perception that any exposure to volcanic debris is inevitably going to result in engine flame-outs and the loss of any aircraft that flies near it. That perception is informed only by the experience of BA009 and the KLM flight, both of which flew (at night) into the visible plumes of active volcanoes around which there were no avoidance areas.
Yes, & we know that perception is false. The two Finnish air force F-18s previously referred to did not suffer flame-outs, & are probably more prone to engine damage than airliners, due to the low bypass ratio of their engines. But they were damaged -

Pictures of their engines -
(http://wsmweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/FinnishF18_1.jpg)
(http://wsmweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/FinnishF18_2.jpg)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 12:47:55 pm
Hey ho, Bledlow, I guess you caught me out making unjustified assumptions! Well, that won't be the first one of those on this thread...

Nevertheless, the essentail point remains: airlines do not keep very large amounts of liquid capital that can finance extended periods of non-operation.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 19 April, 2010, 12:57:31 pm
Well, the way aircraft leasing is growing, you may just be premature.  ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 12:59:02 pm
Let's get a measure of realism about this rather than it turning into a blame game.
etc...

Our problem is the perception that any exposure to volcanic debris is inevitably going to result in engine flame-outs and the loss of any aircraft that flies near it. That perception is informed only by the experience of BA009 and the KLM flight, both of which flew (at night) into the visible plumes of active volcanoes around which there were no avoidance areas.
Yes, & we know that perception is false. The two Finnish air force F-18s previously referred to did not suffer flame-outs, & are probably more prone to engine damage than airliners, due to the low bypass ratio of their engines. But they were damaged -


yes, they were. What I don't know definitively is the concentration and type of debris they encountered. I do know that, at the time of their flight, the Met Office charts suggested that an area of particularly high concentration was in the general area of northern Scandinavia.

Please don't get me wrong; I am not for a moment suggesting that, without government intervention, airlines would have flown through this event regardless. No airline objected to the initial response to the eruption. But we are now questioning the science and methodology of determining what is and what is not safe, and the answers we are getting are woolly and inadequate. Most worryingly, there is no clear framework for the lifting of the current restrictions, largely because of the lack of research I already referred to. That will delay the process considerably, and unnecessarily.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 01:00:35 pm
Well, the way aircraft leasing is growing, you may just be premature.  ;D

I based my assumption on my own airline which, as far as I am aware, doesn't own any of its aircraft - though it does indirectly own some of the companies from which we lease the aircraft...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 19 April, 2010, 01:08:56 pm
And so we go on. How safe does something have to be to be declared acceptable? We have been flying through this stuff for many years, but our detection technology wasn't sufficient to show it. However, our maintenace regime was entirely adequate to cope with it, and is constantly improving, to the extent that we now get up to 35,000 hours out of our engines 'on the wing'. But now we can see more stuff, so we're going to avoid stuff that previously we couldn't see. To what benefit?

Are you suggesting that it's perfectly safe to fly absolutely anywhere* at the moment ?

If you have the data to show that then hey, ho off we go.  If not then I'm not sure what else we can expect but a precautionary approach.

*watches on as this plays out like every other precautionary everything, ever*

Indeed.

*edit: OK, you know what i mean.  It's never "perfectly" safe but the risk is usually... yadda yadda yadda.  Can you show that any risk is within what's deemed acceptable to those who would fly and those who would insure the airlines ?  ie there's no significant extra risk due to the cloud ?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 19 April, 2010, 01:12:35 pm
The two Finnish air force F-18s previously referred to did not suffer flame-outs, & are probably more prone to engine damage than airliners, due to the low bypass ratio of their engines. But they were damaged -

Pictures of their engines -
(http://wsmweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/FinnishF18_1.jpg)
(http://wsmweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/FinnishF18_2.jpg)

Ew, that looks... expensive.

As for "who has the hubris?" surely the answer appears to be one Willie Walsh Esq, no?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 19 April, 2010, 01:16:40 pm
A few years back a BA 747 flew through a cloud of volcano dust; the pilot followed one procedure (trying to climb) and cut his four engines out as a result.

Following this isolated incident a new procedure was formulated (see above; Chris S) in consultation with manufacturers.

Currently we are in an intermediate situation; yet one for which we do not have any data. There is no threshold to deciding whether it is safe to fly or not. There is little research available.

Therefore new scenarii are considered; and companies are doing test flights to check what the consequences can be. They are also proposing alternative flight patterns (for turboprops for example).

However the current situation is lasting and the cloud concentration poorly known which worry the airlines for the former and the airlines and decision makers for the latter. As TimC wrote all have been caught with their trousers down on that one.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 19 April, 2010, 01:23:14 pm
According to Met Office: Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html) the eruption has 'virtually ceased', so perhaps things are looking up - particularly if the wind changes to SW'ly.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 19 April, 2010, 01:27:35 pm
The two Finnish air force F-18s previously referred to did not suffer flame-outs, [...]. But they were damaged -

Pictures of their engines -
(http://wsmweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/FinnishF18_1.jpg)
(http://wsmweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/FinnishF18_2.jpg)

That is interesting. Do we know, on these shots, what are the new defects? And yes these engines require more frequent servicing and attention than airliners' (yes their bypass ration is smaller but so are their intakes potentially, inc. in the core maybe).
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 19 April, 2010, 01:34:39 pm
Nevertheless, the essentail point remains: airlines do not keep very large amounts of liquid capital that can finance extended periods of non-operation.

BBC News - BA seeks compensation for ash chaos (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8629674.stm)

"
Despite the huge losses being incurred, BA said it still had "significant funding" available to allow it to stay in business should flights be grounded for a "considerable period".

Before the disruption, the airline had more than £1.7bn in cash reserves to draw on, as well as more than £400m in available credit.
"

That's £2.1bn for BA. At £20m a day that's about 100 days.

Other airlines may not be so lucky...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 19 April, 2010, 01:42:40 pm
That's £2.1bn for BA. At £20m a day that's about 100 days.

Other airlines may not be so lucky...

That's much more than I thought.

Can the EU support all its airlines?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 19 April, 2010, 01:48:24 pm
Quite a few 'planes in the air in Europe now.

(http://www.greenbank.org/misc/fr_20100419_1349.jpg)

(Snapshot taken at 13:49 on 19th April 2010.)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 19 April, 2010, 01:52:09 pm
Can the EU support all its airlines?

Difficult. Not directly, and if individual countries do it without nationalisation then it would violate State Aid rules.  But then that didn't stop the bank bailout...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Ariadne on 19 April, 2010, 02:06:27 pm
Quite a few 'planes in the air in Europe now.

(http://www.greenbank.org/misc/fr_20100419_1349.jpg)

(Snapshot taken at 13:49 on 19th April 2010.)

I've seen a few of these snapshots - what are the blue crosses?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 19 April, 2010, 02:07:10 pm
I've seen a few of these snapshots - what are the blue crosses?

Airports (or major ones at least).

Some of the aircraft you see in areas where you don't expect to see them are probably either being shifted around on the ground, or it's maintenance work on the avionics.  I've noticed quite a few pop up for a while, never significantly move, and then disappear.  They seem to have sensible callsigns, so it's probably a real signal (rather than bad data).
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 02:18:14 pm
And so we go on. How safe does something have to be to be declared acceptable? We have been flying through this stuff for many years, but our detection technology wasn't sufficient to show it. However, our maintenace regime was entirely adequate to cope with it, and is constantly improving, to the extent that we now get up to 35,000 hours out of our engines 'on the wing'. But now we can see more stuff, so we're going to avoid stuff that previously we couldn't see. To what benefit?

Are you suggesting that it's perfectly safe to fly absolutely anywhere* at the moment ?

If you have the data to show that then hey, ho off we go.  If not then I'm not sure what else we can expect but a precautionary approach.

*watches on as this plays out like every other precautionary everything, ever*

Indeed.

*edit: OK, you know what i mean.  It's never "perfectly" safe but the risk is usually... yadda yadda yadda.  Can you show that any risk is within what's deemed acceptable to those who would fly and those who would insure the airlines ?  ie there's no significant extra risk due to the cloud ?

No, I'm not suggesting that it's perfectly safe (caveats noted!). As I think I've explained, the problem is that no-one can declare what is safe, having now declared that it's not safe, because there is no such thing as a known safe contamination or concentration level. That's not because there isn't one (or many), but because no-one has determined what it is (or what they are). What we need is a great deal more data from aircraft engines (and their manufacturers) telling us what can be tolerated and what can't, so that we can make much more informed progress to restoring flying over Europe.

Some of that data is being provided right now by BA and the like; these test flights are not macho bravado, they are gathering information which can be combined with our knowledge of the concentrations and types of debris (as determined by our satellite, ground-based, and balloon and aircraft-based observations) so that we can determine what is, and what is not, safe to operate in. Hopefully, this dataset can be used to refine operational and regulatory procedures so as to make any future volcanic problems far less disruptive than this one in similar circumstances. In the immediate future, they will help greatly in determining when it really is safe to get passengers back up in the sky. Sitting around waiting for some indeterminate time when this volcano has given up just won't cut it. We have to be pro-active.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Ariadne on 19 April, 2010, 02:18:29 pm
Ah, I see. The maps I saw earlier this week didn't have any on Scotland - maybe because they were completely closed.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 19 April, 2010, 02:44:41 pm
This picture (http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/image/1004/icevolcano_fulle_big.jpg) is more fun!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 02:59:08 pm
The original - and others - are here (http://www.swisseduc.ch/stromboli/perm/iceland/eyafallajokull_20100416-en.html).
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 19 April, 2010, 06:06:37 pm
Well, have had alert to possible opening tomorrow afternoon.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 19 April, 2010, 06:09:46 pm
Are the passengers still there or have you been riding your bike around an empty concourse in the post apocalyptic "do as you like" stylee?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: oncemore on 19 April, 2010, 06:44:38 pm
"State Aid rules" are complex things but also quite flexible (I spent many happy hours stretching them), MV!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tewdric on 19 April, 2010, 06:47:59 pm
This picture (http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/image/1004/icevolcano_fulle_big.jpg) is more fun!

I haz new desktop.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 07:45:24 pm
Well, have had alert to possible opening tomorrow afternoon.

We are expecting to operate our schedule from around 2000L tomorrow. Incidentally, I now have it on very good authority that, despite frightening themselves silly with the detections of lots of volcanic dust by their onboard hi-tech kit, the Dornier 228 being used by NERC (http://www.nerc.ac.uk/press/notes/) had its engines boroscoped today after 10 hours flying in the 'muck' (as Guy Gratton called it). Absolutely no damage or deposits were found.

Edit The recovery has started. There are, at this moment, about 25 airliners airborne from various northern European airfields to points various, including 3 KLM 747s, one each to JFK, Shanghai and Dubai. More will follow tonight, and UK will join in tomorrow, all being well.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 19 April, 2010, 07:48:09 pm
However, I note from that link:

Quote from: NERC
Dr Guy Gratton from the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements based at Cranfield, said, 'Speaking as an aeronautical engineer, I wouldn't want to be putting a big aeroplane up in that at the moment.'

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 19 April, 2010, 07:48:13 pm
This picture (http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/image/1004/icevolcano_fulle_big.jpg) is more fun!

I haz new desktop.

Likewise!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 07:54:59 pm
However, I note from that link:

Quote from: NERC
Dr Guy Gratton from the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements based at Cranfield, said, 'Speaking as an aeronautical engineer, I wouldn't want to be putting a big aeroplane up in that at the moment.'

Yes, he did say that (on Saturday, you'll note). The engineering inspections that followed the sampling flights have shown that the assumptions of engine and airframe damage from the contamination present and detected in our airspace were not correct. Guy would be the first to acknowledge that, I'm sure.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 19 April, 2010, 08:03:37 pm
I'm sure he would / will if necessary.   However, as yet, no press release since 17th.   

The press release of 17th is interesting as it refers to the ICAO's 2005 contingency plans which are simply being followed by many countries.   Perhaps that's why such action has never been taken before - no contingency plans?     
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 08:13:25 pm
There have been contingency plans ever since BA009, as I've kind of alluded to before. However, on this occasions they've been activated on relatively long-range predictions which were not backed up by a regime of sampling and proving. Equally, and probably due to the complexity of European airspace (which is another topic...), rather than apply an avoidance area to the known plume, Eurocontrol, through the national ATC and Aviation agencies, shut down whole national airspaces. It is undoubtedy relevent that they apparently went through a simulation exercise of this very scenario (though postulating a very much larger volcano) only a few weeks ago, and this is the solution that they implemented in that simulation. I suspect that they were therefore predisposed to that solution even though the actual event was much smaller than that of the simulation.

However, the deconstruction of events is for the future. At last we seem to be seeing a more pragmatic approach. I await the release of the science that has prompted the opening of the airspace, in the hope that it is what I've advocated and not a pendulum-swing of political opinion!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 19 April, 2010, 08:16:29 pm
I was pondering as to whether ETOPS operations might remain suspended on the basis of Four engines Good, Two engines Bad...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 19 April, 2010, 08:19:16 pm
They may well be. I can't comment, as we have no twin-engined aeroplanes. Yet.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 19 April, 2010, 08:57:01 pm
Iceland Meteorological office - Earthquakes Mýrdalsjökull, Iceland (http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/)

Iceland Met Office page for Eyja, Hekla to the north and Katla under the big glacier centre south.  If the large ladies are going to blow, there'll usually be quake bursts beforehand.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 19 April, 2010, 09:04:50 pm
Iceland Meteorological office - Earthquakes Mýrdalsjökull, Iceland (http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/)

Iceland Met Office page for Eyja, Hekla to the north and Katla under the big glacier centre south.  If the large ladies are going to blow, there'll usually be quake bursts beforehand.

Good site.  I guess it's possible that at least one will join in...

I found this link in google news...  :)
Quote
# The last Icelandic Earthquake eruption lasted for two years in 1823. History books talk about several time getting clouds of dust in Europe and Iceland. People attributed it to the earthquakes.
# The Earthquake plumes of ash can be seen as far away as the International Space Station.
http://news.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474978181994

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 20 April, 2010, 07:57:53 am
Are the passengers still there or have you been riding your bike around an empty concourse in the post apocalyptic "do as you like" stylee?
There have been almost none about, but seemed a very few more yesterday. Will see at 1500 hrs today
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 20 April, 2010, 08:21:00 am
Hmmmm.... NATS rolls back plans to reopen British airspace as there is another cloud on its way.

And the NERC / Met Office have been giving greater detail of the ash layers they've been finding.... and they're where they were predicted to be.  Seems the airlines' suggestions that the scientists were being 'purely theoretical' is blown out of the water...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: PaulF on 20 April, 2010, 08:35:07 am
Hmmmm.... NATS rolls back plans to reopen British airspace as there is another cloud on its way.

And the NERC / Met Office have been giving greater detail of the ash layers they've been finding.... and they're where they were predicted to be.  Seems the airlines' suggestions that the scientists were being 'purely theoretical' is blown out of the water...

Weren't the airlines were questioning the risk of flying into the ash rather than the scientists' ability to predict where it would go?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 20 April, 2010, 08:36:36 am
Hmmmm.... NATS rolls back plans to reopen British airspace as there is another cloud on its way.

And the NERC / Met Office have been giving greater detail of the ash layers they've been finding.... and they're where they were predicted to be.  Seems the airlines' suggestions that the scientists were being 'purely theoretical' is blown out of the water...

Not looking good.

As a modeller though I would understand that people would challenge the model until validation data was obtained. It is good that both data and model agree; it is a positive. It means these could be used to plan operations I would even venture. Such large scale predictions are quite difficult. Again I don't think that the airlines are willing to take risks and were challenging scientists per se, they are concerned about  gaining more knowledge about the situation so that educated decisions can be taken leading to, hopefully, business to be resumed.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 20 April, 2010, 08:40:37 am
Flightradar is now showing planes in UK airspace. Could just be call sign checks.....
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Manotea on 20 April, 2010, 08:41:24 am
Whilst I feel very sorry for all the disruption the volcano has caused....

... the joy and tranquillity of living under quiet skies in London W4 cannot be overstated .
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 20 April, 2010, 08:42:20 am
Nope, one is a Lufthansa crossing Irish Sea at 37,000 feet. We haz playnz
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: mike on 20 April, 2010, 09:09:20 am
Lufthansa have been talking up the chances of flying into the UK for a day or so, my boss was on standby for a flight at about noon which they just cancelled.  Seem to be a lot more positive about it than most, perhaps it's a Swiss thing..
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: pcolbeck on 20 April, 2010, 09:11:23 am
Lufthansa have been talking up the chances of flying into the UK for a day or so, my boss was on standby for a flight at about noon which they just cancelled.  Seem to be a lot more positive about it than most, perhaps it's a Swiss thing..


Err Lufthansa are the German national carrier not the Swiss.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 20 April, 2010, 09:27:27 am
There's a Lufthansa flight from San Francisco to Frankfurt that crossed the UK from near Preston to Cromer. 39,000 ft.

That's a reasonable indication that the upper UK airspace seems ok.

Doesn't mean there are passengers on it though.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 20 April, 2010, 09:34:01 am
39000 feet should be OK, all along the VAAC warnings have been saying there's nothing significant above FL350.  Of course, that's no use unless you're just transiting over the UK, and it's probably not allowed, since you're buggered big time if you have to descend in an emergency.

There are a few flights apparently in the northern UK.  Several of them are DLH (Lufthansa).
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: ScumOfTheRoad on 20 April, 2010, 09:41:44 am
DHL you say? Goody goody! I have some kit waiting on a loading dock in in the USA - maybe it will get to europe sooner than later.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 20 April, 2010, 09:43:10 am
Hmmmm.... NATS rolls back plans to reopen British airspace as there is another cloud on its way.

And the NERC / Met Office have been giving greater detail of the ash layers they've been finding.... and they're where they were predicted to be.  Seems the airlines' suggestions that the scientists were being 'purely theoretical' is blown out of the water...

It would seem that the current eruption is of lower intensity and contains far less ice than the earlier ones. The presence of ice is apparently critical in the propensity of the dust to cause damage at concentrations that aren't visible. It is likely that the resurgent plume can be treated as would that of any volcano not contained under an ice cap, which may make life a little simpler! However, we'll have to wait and see.

Reg, I rather resent your implication that the airlines play fast and loose with safety. It's no accident that flying is by far the safest mode of travel; we spend inordinate amounts of time, effort and money ensuring safety. Passengers' confidence is absolutely essential, or we don't have a business. But we know a great deal more about our machinery than politicians do, and we are not going to let them shut us down without attempting to make our case.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 20 April, 2010, 09:56:25 am
Hmmmm.... NATS rolls back plans to reopen British airspace as there is another cloud on its way.

And the NERC / Met Office have been giving greater detail of the ash layers they've been finding.... and they're where they were predicted to be.  Seems the airlines' suggestions that the scientists were being 'purely theoretical' is blown out of the water...

It would seem that the current eruption is of lower intensity and contains far less ice than the earlier ones. The presence of ice is apparently critical in the propensity of the dust to cause damage at concentrations that aren't visible. It is likely that the resurgent plume can be treated as would that of any volcano not contained under an ice cap, which may make life a little simpler! However, we'll have to wait and see.

Reg, I rather resent your implication that the airlines play fast and loose with safety. It's no accident that flying is by far the safest mode of travel; we spend inordinate amounts of time, effort and money ensuring safety. Passengers' confidence is absolutely essential, or we don't have a business.

Tim

I didn't imply "...that the airlines play fast and loose with safety."  It is a fact that a number of airlines, including Lufthansa, Air France and Air Berlin have been challenging the science, saying that there are not the ash concentrations suggested.

The evidence is there that the ash concentrations exist.

Quote
But we know a great deal more about our machinery than politicians do, and we are not going to let them shut us down without attempting to make our case.

*Bzzzzzzzzz...* Straw man!  This is nothing to do with politicians.  The closure of air space has been undertaken by the various national aviation authorities - the aviation safety experts - not by politicians.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 20 April, 2010, 10:01:21 am
a 4 engined plane has just gone over Gatwick heading SW; I would guess about 20000 ft
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 20 April, 2010, 10:14:46 am
a 4 engined plane has just gone over Gatwick heading SW; I would guess about 20000 ft

Yebbut - were the engines running?  :demon:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 20 April, 2010, 10:16:42 am
A contrail heading West just North of Gatwick, plus some engine sounds from the sirport.....
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 20 April, 2010, 10:17:09 am
a 4 engined plane has just gone over Gatwick heading SW; I would guess about 20000 ft

10000
80000
50000
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jules on 20 April, 2010, 10:23:21 am
Whilst I feel very sorry for all the disruption the volcano has caused....

... the joy and tranquillity of living under quiet skies in London W4 cannot be overstated .


+1 I  bought my house knowing it was under the approach to Heathrow 27L so the noise has never bothered me. The quiet is nice though :)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 20 April, 2010, 10:24:20 am
Quote from: Anton Vowl
No planes in the sky, lovely sunny days, and Chris Moyles thousands of miles away. Or returning to normal. It's a poser, isn't it?

I wish I'd said that.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: bikenerd on 20 April, 2010, 11:46:42 am
Two contrails seen over Oxford just now.  We were up on the roof taking coffee and everyone stopped talking and stared skywards.  Like the coming of the rapture.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 20 April, 2010, 12:54:15 pm


*Bzzzzzzzzz...* Straw man!  This is nothing to do with politicians.  The closure of air space has been undertaken by the various national aviation authorities - the aviation safety experts - not by politicians.



Whatever, Reg. You know best.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 20 April, 2010, 01:03:02 pm


*Bzzzzzzzzz...* Straw man!  This is nothing to do with politicians.  The closure of air space has been undertaken by the various national aviation authorities - the aviation safety experts - not by politicians.



Whatever, Reg. You know best.

OK then Tim... which politicians are you suggesting are responsible for closing the air space?  

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: LindaG on 20 April, 2010, 01:03:45 pm
Two contrails seen over Oxford just now.  We were up on the roof taking coffee and everyone stopped talking and stared skywards.  Like the coming of the rapture.

I was with you there. I stopped and pointed out of the office window  :-[

We've regressed to the level of stone age man ...   :)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 20 April, 2010, 01:20:34 pm
They may well be. I can't comment, as we have no twin-engined aeroplanes. Yet.
Aha! Now I know who you work for. I've been on your A340s, & I should be again in July & August (ash permitting), though we bought our tickets from ANA. Well, it says the flight will be on A346, & ANA is all Boeing. So there's no chance that Mrs Bs cousin the ANA pilot will be flying us. :(

Now all the leasing stuff makes sense . . . 
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 20 April, 2010, 01:24:17 pm
I saw the contrail going East to West across London, at a guess someone in Europe flying to the US, and staying above all the (potential) ash.  Presumably the cloud model is in thin enough bits now, that should someone need to descend (in an emergency), they can avoid the cloud.

(It doesn't look all that clear though...

(http://jakal.sp.ph.ic.ac.uk/~timo/Ash_2010-04-20.png) (http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271763280.png)
)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: PaulF on 20 April, 2010, 01:42:53 pm
Flight radar has had a steady stream of Lufthansa and KLM flights heading to points West - US and Caribbean mostly.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 20 April, 2010, 01:47:40 pm
Flight radar has had a steady stream of Lufthansa and KLM flights heading to points West - US and Caribbean mostly.

saw 2 earlier; apparently there is a narrow corridor though Sussex they are allowed to use
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 20 April, 2010, 02:54:06 pm


*Bzzzzzzzzz...* Straw man!  This is nothing to do with politicians.  The closure of air space has been undertaken by the various national aviation authorities - the aviation safety experts - not by politicians.



Whatever, Reg. You know best.

OK then Tim... which politicians are you suggesting are responsible for closing the air space?  



Reg, as you are probably aware - or can find out for yourself - the national airspaces were closed, as you say, by national CAAs (or equivalent) and/or met offices in accordance with an ancient ICAO Volcanic Ash procedure which had never been updated to accommodate the latest detection and measurement techniques. As that policy, quite ludicrously given that volcanic debris is constantly present in the atmosphere, states that there is no acceptable level of volcanic debris, there was no clear mechanism for rescinding, modifying or mitigating the airspace closures. At that point, Eurocontrol, representing all the affected national airspace regulators, passed the buck to Brussels - specifically Siim Kallas, the European Transport Commissioner. It was he who called the teleconference of Transport Ministers that was held yesterday, and who effectively assumed responsibility for the continuation or otherwise of airspace closures. The decisions about who flies and who doesn't are now in the hands of politicians, not airspace authorities. That is why the airlines are lobbying government(s), not NATS, Eurocontrol or any other airspace authority.

Edit. I should add that I've just come out of a root canal session with the dentist and I Am Not Happy, so don't give me any reaso to snap at you!!!*







*What that really means is: sorry if I'm a bit grumpy!  :-[

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: 2_Flat_Erics on 20 April, 2010, 04:31:14 pm
Why do the airlines and governments not already have well rehearsed contingency plans for an airspace shutdown?

I can understand that before 9/11 most airlines and goverments would not have really thought about the posibility of a total shutdown of airspace over a large area.

After 9/11 the US shut down its airspace for a while. Following this it would seem sensible for all airlines and governments to put in place contingency plans to cope with a similar shutdown in the future.

It would not matter what the cause of the shutdown is (terrorism, volcanic ash, anything else we have not thought of yet). If plans had been in place then many of the problems with people getting home in the last few days could have been mitigated. I'm not sugesting for a minute that everything would have aotumatically gone smoothly but contingencies could have swung into action far more quickly. (Extra ferries, trains, coaches etc). Instead it has taken days to really get these things up and running.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 20 April, 2010, 04:35:03 pm
The problem with contingency plans is cost. Just like last winter, when we need specialist items we don't have them, because (a) they cost money, (b) thou shalt not spend public money, and (c) the event happens so rarely that the expense would be seen as wasted---until it happens.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 20 April, 2010, 04:36:57 pm
As all modes of travel overseas are private concerns why should the government have a contingency plan to cater for that?   If your car breaks down how do you make that essential journey?   If anybody should have contingency plans it should be the private concerns involved.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 20 April, 2010, 04:38:59 pm
Why should there be plans to get people home faster? Who should pay? Should there also be plans to take people on holidays they have booked?


Which areas would be covered? Northern Europe, the US, or father afield?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 20 April, 2010, 04:50:21 pm
I suspect that generalised contingencies for closure of the entire UK airspace may not be a lot of use.  Exactly what you do to deal with it would depend a lot on why the airspace had closed.

On the other hand, as TimC says, better knowledge of what levels and types of ash should worry us, and modelling of the behaviour of the cloud and volcanoes would have helped.  I imagine a lot more funding will be available for this sort of research very shortly.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: nuttycyclist on 20 April, 2010, 04:54:34 pm
As all modes of travel overseas are private concerns why should the government have a contingency plan to cater for that?   If your car breaks down how do you make that essential journey?   If anybody should have contingency plans it should be the private concerns involved.


Contingency plans should be either with the individual, or the individual carriers.

e.g. if a railway track fails then the company will look good if they already have plans in place so that they can cater for their customers.  This then gives good customer satisfaction, rather than looking bad in the media when it all goes wrong.

Potentially an unbrella travel plan should be put in place, so that not all failed companies try to hire coaches from the same carrier, and so that many scenarios are catered for (closed airspace, disease infected countries with closed borders, etc), but if this does occur then the people responsible should do so at least cost (maybe via a collaboration scheme between companies rather than an appointed government department).

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: 2_Flat_Erics on 20 April, 2010, 04:57:07 pm
A plan does not need to cost much to make. It may cost millions to impliment if needed but not to plan.

As for who pays, thats simple it's the airlines and the passengers who pay. The taxpayer certainly should not pick up the bill (the airlines get enough taxpayers dosh as it is).

I am not a fan of flying and think that we should be doing everything we can to reduce the number of flights to a bare minimum. There is a lot to be said for the slower less polluting pace of life of the train and sea travel.

I was just surprised that no one seems to have thought that something like this could happen and made a few plans. Major shutdowns don't happen often but it's twice in 10 years now.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 20 April, 2010, 04:58:11 pm
I think the gubbinsment missed out on a monster pre-election PR boost.

They should have, in conjunction with Spanish authorities, airlines, and other vested interests, sent out a general announcement - "Stranded Brits - get yourselves to Santander, and we'll send a fuck off fleet of ferries/ships to get you FOC".

Hell - I'd almost have voted for them then...

Instead, they picked up a few hundred civvies and a whole bunch of troops, and left hundreds of others there by the quayside. Bet they won't vote labour ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 20 April, 2010, 04:58:47 pm
It depends on the numbers involved.

Past a certain point and it stops being a commercial problem of private companies and becomes a humanitarian and civil emergency that is indeed the remit of the government when British subjects are involved.

It does not matter how they were stranded there, if the numbers are great enough there is a duty to act.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 20 April, 2010, 05:00:09 pm
It depends on the numbers involved.

Past a certain point and it stops being a commercial problem of private companies and becomes a humanitarian and civil emergency that is indeed the remit of the government when British subjects are involved.

It does not matter how they were stranded there, if the numbers are great enough there is a duty to act.

Yeah - but the gubbermint will still charge you for repatriation...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 20 April, 2010, 05:04:38 pm
It depends on the numbers involved.

Past a certain point and it stops being a commercial problem of private companies and becomes a humanitarian and civil emergency that is indeed the remit of the government when British subjects are involved.

It does not matter how they were stranded there, if the numbers are great enough there is a duty to act.

Yeah - but the gubbermint will still charge you for repatriation...
Good luck on this occasion then.

They have precisely bob hope of pulling that little trick off, too many people involved.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 20 April, 2010, 05:08:03 pm
But these people aren't in immediate danger.   It's not a question of life and liberty, nor is it a question of them being stuck for months.    

Just another pathetic excuse for those politically small-brained enough to blame the government.    ???     

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 20 April, 2010, 05:09:23 pm
It depends on the numbers involved.

Past a certain point and it stops being a commercial problem of private companies and becomes a humanitarian and civil emergency that is indeed the remit of the government when British subjects are involved.

It does not matter how they were stranded there, if the numbers are great enough there is a duty to act.

Yeah - but the gubbermint will still charge you for repatriation...
Good luck on this occasion then.

They have precisely bob hope of pulling that little trick off, too many people involved.

Not at all.  If they're shipping them back from Spain, they'll have been through the consulate.  The Government will have their passport and contact details, and they may have been required to sign an 'Undertaking to Repay' prior to embarkation.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: tom_e on 20 April, 2010, 05:11:05 pm
They should have, in conjunction with Spanish authorities, airlines, and other vested interests, sent out a general announcement - "Stranded Brits - get yourselves to Santander, and we'll send a fuck off fleet of ferries/ships to get you FOC".

Sounds impressive, but the actual capacity to move people isn't going to be a patch on the cross channel ferries.  They now appear to be up to speed and encouraging foot passengers to simply turn up at the port. 

"Stranded brits - get yourself to Calais; there are some ferries running backwards and forwards many times a day.  " doesn't sound so votewinning.   :-\
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 20 April, 2010, 05:11:56 pm
Being stuck in another country that has food, shelter and bars but no copies of today's Daily Mail is a humanitarian crisis, isn't it?  ???
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: nuttycyclist on 20 April, 2010, 05:14:09 pm
I agree.


However there is some small crisis in that not all stranded people are loaded enough to be able to afford hotels or food... especially if the employer has stopped paying them as they're awol.

You also have the knock on effect of companies being short staffed now that their planned workloads are ramping back up after the easter break but not all staff are back.  

Triage is the word I think.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 20 April, 2010, 05:15:08 pm
It doesn't mean they will pay for repatriation.

Tracking down all that money will take years, with the numbers involved it's going to overload whatever admin systems they have in place.

I also doubt every individual involved is going to go through the consulate, again too many people involved.

It will consist of - get to a port - show passport - board, old Gordon want's all the people back, the longer they are absent the more money the economy loses.

The clock is ticking.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 20 April, 2010, 05:18:24 pm
Being stuck in another country that has food, shelter and bars but no copies of today's Daily Mail is a humanitarian crisis, isn't it?  ???
It will be when they start to run out of money.

Not every person has x grand of savings.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 20 April, 2010, 05:20:38 pm
Not every person has x grand of savings.

Nope, because they have spent it all on going on holiday to a relatively expensive destination.  ;)

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 20 April, 2010, 05:23:45 pm
Ah, budget travel for the masses.   Travel is too cheap and folk simply believe that they have a right to travel.   They do, and they have a responsibility to be able to look after themselves too.   
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 20 April, 2010, 05:25:30 pm
Not every person has x grand of savings.

Nope, because they have spent it all on going on holiday to a relatively expensive destination.  ;)


Or it could be that not being one of the baby boomers that hog up all the national wealth - you had to scrape together a few hundred quid for a last minute flight to cheap resort in spain.

You are now not getting paid by work.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 20 April, 2010, 05:26:23 pm
Ah, budget travel for the masses.   Travel is too cheap and folk simply believe that they have a right to travel.   They do, and they have a responsibility to be able to look after themselves too.   
It was a volcano.

Would you dump them there if a war broke out?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 20 April, 2010, 05:31:55 pm
Not every person has x grand of savings.

Nope, because they have spent it all on going on holiday to a relatively expensive destination.  ;)


Or it could be that not being one of the baby boomers that hog up all the national wealth - you had to scrape together a few hundred quid for a last minute flight to cheap resort in spain.

You are now not getting paid by work.

Caveat emptor.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 20 April, 2010, 05:34:21 pm
It doesn't really matter how you got there or if you're loaded or not.   It's stupendously irresponsible to go travelling without contingency resources.     
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Zoidburg on 20 April, 2010, 05:37:23 pm
It doesn't really matter how you got there or if you're loaded or not.   It's stupendously irresponsible to go travelling without contingency resources.      
A lot of people have them.

It's actualy getting transport that is the issue, there is a bottle neck.

It is often the case in times when transport systems get swamped such as during civil wars, disasters etc etc - that money becomes effectively useless.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 20 April, 2010, 06:44:43 pm
The media reports seem to forget that there are pretty strict rules in Europe on the responsibilities of the airline in situations like this:-

BBC News - Iceland volcano: Air passenger rights (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8621779.stm)

That article also touches on the employment law aspects.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Kathy on 20 April, 2010, 07:12:19 pm
It doesn't really matter how you got there or if you're loaded or not.   It's stupendously irresponsible to go travelling without contingency resources.      

...unless of course you're doing as I once did, and going to an international conference when I was a semi-impoverished PhD student. Unfortunately, the policy of the company I worked for was that the tripee paid for everything out of their own pocket, and then submitted receipts for a refund on returning. Doubly unfortunately, the month of the conference was the month after the car tax, MOT, insurance and a hefty vet bill. I had budgetted just enough (i.e. found all the loose change Tim and I could scrape up from the back of the sofa) to cope with the trip, and then there was a baggage handler's strike.  :facepalm: I had a very worried twenty-four hours before I found out my flight home wouldn't be cancelled, as I otherwise wouldn't have any more money available to me in Spain. At all.  :-\
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 20 April, 2010, 08:02:51 pm
Bit of a discussion about all this over the dinner table tonight.

Conclusion #1: We've become so used to hypermobility, and the assumption that we can fling ourselves thousands of miles from our homes, across vast tracts of sea and land, and expect it to be trivial and routine to get home again. It's a bit of a wake up call when it suddenly turns out we can be stranded so far from home.

Conclusion #2: An employer that says "You must use annual leave to bail yourself out of this" might be a wee bit unfair; I'd have said "You can take unpaid leave, or annual leave - your choice..." but I agree that it's not an employers position to bail out an employee - mainly because of #1.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 20 April, 2010, 08:54:20 pm
Thanks to AG I've become a seismic event watcher...  ::-)   ;)

activity picking up... maybe   Iceland Meteorological office - Earthquakes Iceland (http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 20 April, 2010, 09:00:48 pm
It doesn't really matter how you got there or if you're loaded or not.   It's stupendously irresponsible to go travelling without contingency resources.     

I do hope this provokes some people into thinking about whether their journey was really necessary.

Been off for a holiday in the sun?  I was in the sunshine all weekend in flippin' Sussex, and the quality of life was vastly improved because no dumbasses were in a tube going elsewhere.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 20 April, 2010, 09:31:42 pm
The media reports seem to forget that there are pretty strict rules in Europe on the responsibilities of the airline in situations like this:-

BBC News - Iceland volcano: Air passenger rights (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8621779.stm)

That article also touches on the employment law aspects.
Ryanair is, of course, complaining that it isn't fair, saying that it shouldn't have to pay out lots of money for someone who's paid very little for their ticket.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Polar Bear on 20 April, 2010, 09:36:21 pm
It doesn't really matter how you got there or if you're loaded or not.   It's stupendously irresponsible to go travelling without contingency resources.     

I do hope this provokes some people into thinking about whether their journey was really necessary.

Been off for a holiday in the sun?  I was in the sunshine all weekend in flippin' Sussex, and the quality of life was vastly improved because no dumbasses were in a tube going elsewhere.

You've gotta be kiddin' lad.  Of course their journeys were 'necessary'.  How could you possibly consider otherwise.   I know of people who haven't had a job in a decade who still believe that they are entitled to two weeks in the Costa del Chavland in July!   Gotta ave n ollidee guv.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 20 April, 2010, 09:57:08 pm
It doesn't really matter how you got there or if you're loaded or not.   It's stupendously irresponsible to go travelling without contingency resources.      

most people purchase "contingency resources" in the form of travel insurance; it's hardly their fault that due to the nature of the grounding this is currently no use to them


Ryanair is, of course, complaining that it isn't fair, saying that it shouldn't have to pay out lots of money for someone who's paid very little for their ticket.

Ryanair are full of shit; they make as much dosh as all the other airlines when you take their extra charges and also reduced overheads into account; they'll just have to make a little bit less while this goes on, diddums.


Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 20 April, 2010, 10:04:07 pm
They just opened all uK airports.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 20 April, 2010, 10:05:29 pm
They just opened all uK airports.

why does this whole story remind me of The Towering Inferno?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: sas on 20 April, 2010, 10:08:12 pm
It doesn't really matter how you got there or if you're loaded or not.   It's stupendously irresponsible to go travelling without contingency resources.      

most people purchase "contingency resources" in the form of travel insurance; it's hardly their fault that due to the nature of the grounding this is currently no use to them
Is there a fundamental reason insurance companies won't cover this sort of event? Or is it that no one would be willing to pay the premiums?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Chris S on 20 April, 2010, 10:08:22 pm
I hope there isn't some kind of um... "incident". The shit would royally hit the fan.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 20 April, 2010, 10:12:43 pm
Lots of 'planes going past on the way to land at Heathrow.

Oh well.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: cometworm on 20 April, 2010, 10:15:38 pm
It doesn't really matter how you got there or if you're loaded or not.   It's stupendously irresponsible to go travelling without contingency resources.      

most people purchase "contingency resources" in the form of travel insurance; it's hardly their fault that due to the nature of the grounding this is currently no use to them
Is there a fundamental reason insurance companies won't cover this sort of event? Or is it that no one would be willing to pay the premiums?

Essentially, yes, it would be impractically expensive to cover the extremely-low-probability, extremely-high-cost events. In order to have the necessary cash to cover the payouts, insurance companies would have to hold much larger amounts in reserve, which they would have to get from higher premiums.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 20 April, 2010, 10:19:06 pm
I hope there isn't some kind of um... "incident". The shit would royally hit the fan.

There almost certainly won't be. In the last 30 years, during something like hundreds of millions of flights, there have been 80 incidents where aircraft performance has been affected by volcanic residue. The most famous is, of course, Capt Eric Moody's fun  nd games in BA009. All of these involved direct contact with the visible plume of a volcano, and none, as far as I am aware, resulted in the injury, let alone death, of any passenger.

Now we are hopefully to be allowed to get on with our business.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 20 April, 2010, 10:25:18 pm
Is there a fundamental reason insurance companies won't cover this sort of event? Or is it that no one would be willing to pay the premiums?

I assume that all travel insurance is sold on a basis of small personal risk; when everyone has to claim they simply cannot pay the patently enormous sums needed to enable everyone to get home (or stay where they are)

IIRC Municipal Mutual Insurance went to the wall when all the council owned buildings they covered were damaged by the storms of 1987 for the same reason.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 20 April, 2010, 10:40:28 pm
It would be impossible to cover everyone as standard, but at least one person I know has a policy that covers them and they're having their hotel and reasonable expenses covered (and not by a goodwill gesture).
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Tourist Tony on 20 April, 2010, 10:50:29 pm
We haz playnz an grumpy passajaz
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 20 April, 2010, 10:53:11 pm

Essentially, yes, it would be impractically expensive to cover the extremely-low-probability, extremely-high-cost events. In order to have the necessary cash to cover the payouts, insurance companies would have to hold much larger amounts in reserve, which they would have to get from higher premiums.


What is insurance for though?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: woollypigs on 20 April, 2010, 11:05:40 pm
Just heard the first plan over SW6 for a long time.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 20 April, 2010, 11:09:37 pm

Essentially, yes, it would be impractically expensive to cover the extremely-low-probability, extremely-high-cost events. In order to have the necessary cash to cover the payouts, insurance companies would have to hold much larger amounts in reserve, which they would have to get from higher premiums.


What is insurance for though?

the majority of low budget policies only cover high probability low cost (to the company)events; like the car breaking down; getting your camera stolen or having to go to hospital.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 21 April, 2010, 07:04:31 am
Hmmmm...  media now suggesting that airlines have put pressure on Government to open the skies.

The comments of Willie Walsh and the Twat from LyingAir (along the lines of "We're losing money - 'snot fair! The Government are big meanies and totally incompetent") would appear to give credence to this suggestion. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1267597/Iceland-volcano-eruption-British-airspace-reopened-BA-flight-lands-Heathrow.html)

I think the fallout (no pun intended) from this will linger for a while.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 21 April, 2010, 08:42:21 am
It certainly will, but I don't think it will be about pressure put on governments by the airlines. As I explained early in this thread, the problem was essentially that the regulation was both inadequate and over-enthusiastically applied, possibly due to pre-disposition engendered by the paperwork exercise recently undertaken by Eurocontrol. A regulation that stipulates zero tolerance of volcanic particulates is patently absurd when there is no such air available to fly in, and never has been! Volcanic debris is present in the atmosphere at all times, but the regulations didn't recognise that. Nor was there a protocol for recovery from the flight bans imposed, which left the regulators - and thus the industry - backed into a corner.

With 60 years of experience of running jet transport aeroplanes, the industry was understandably frustrated that the regulators denied all operations when we knew that a more practical approach, as applied elsewhere, is more than adequate to ensure safety. While headlines were being breathlessly written by over-excited (and ignorant) media types, the airlines and engine manufacturers put toigether a proper risk analysis, baked up with many years worth of evidence, to give the regulators the material to rewrite the rules and allow a way out of the hole they'd dug. To their credit, and despite my cynicism, the politicians managed to bang a few heads together so that common sense eventually won through.

Now we have to recover the mess that has resulted. Despite the sub-editors' frantic headlines of weeks and maybe months of chaos, this will probably take about 10 days to clear the vast majority of the backlog. The airlines' problem now is that little new revenue can be generated in those 10 days, and so this episode will have cost something between 10 and 20 days of lost income plus legislated expenses. In Virgin's case, I'd guess at a total of up to £100m, BA about £500m. Much, though not all, of this will have been unnecessary.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 21 April, 2010, 08:49:34 am
BA appeared to come out good last night (BBC News Channel): Many passengers, even those stranded, seemed to indicate that the BA staff had looked well after them under the circumstances. Other airlines such as KLM came a bit under fire. On the other hand it didn't seem that the UK authorities had come out on top; there seemed to be much hesitations earlier in the evening on what was going on; the decisicion to send Navy ships was questioned too. this sentiment was echoed in a piece I saw on continental TV later that evening.

It seems that based on the test flights and in discussions with professionals (manufacturers, operators, scientists etc.) the decision to resume flights was taken. In France a corridor policy had been adopted  earlier in the day, where certain corridors (5) had been open and were prioritised, and also much more monitored, including with a measure airplanes circulating along them all day long.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Wowbagger on 21 April, 2010, 08:51:12 am
Did anyone see the Icelandic prime minister on the television yesterday?

Apparently there's a much bigger volcano next door, underneath a glacier, with a track record of erupting vastly every 100 years or so. It last went up in 1918, apparently...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 21 April, 2010, 08:59:22 am
Apparently there's a much bigger volcano next door, underneath a glacier, with a track record of erupting vastly every 100 years or so. It last went up in 1918, apparently...

From what I heard last night its monitoring had revealed it was "okay" at the moment...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: rafletcher on 21 April, 2010, 09:13:13 am
Hmmmm...  media now suggesting that airlines have put pressure on Government to open the skies.

The comments of Willie Walsh and the Twat from LyingAir (along the lines of "We're losing money - 'snot fair! The Government are big meanies and totally incompetent") would appear to give credence to this suggestion. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1267597/Iceland-volcano-eruption-British-airspace-reopened-BA-flight-lands-Heathrow.html)

I think the fallout (no pun intended) from this will linger for a while.

I would hazard that the pilots may have agreed with him in this case, however. They're not going to fly if they think the risk ir unsupportable. And all flying carries some risk.

I don't think there's any conspiracy going on.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: MacB on 21 April, 2010, 09:13:50 am
Did anyone see the Icelandic prime minister on the television yesterday?

Apparently there's a much bigger volcano next door, underneath a glacier, with a track record of erupting vastly every 100 years or so. It last went up in 1918, apparently...

are you planning on being around for the next one Peter?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 21 April, 2010, 09:22:30 am
So it's taken, what, less than a week to decide that this is a long-term problem, to do tests which confirm the Met's models of where the ash is, to do test flights and test-rig experiments and historical data crunching, across all manufacturers, and then to get them all to agree on a "safe ash" level and to get that agreed across the EU?

That's great work. :thumbsup:

Nothing like a crisis to get things moving.  Necessity the mother of invention, and all that.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Andrij on 21 April, 2010, 09:33:48 am
An American view on the situation: Iceland volcano ash cloud: At least Europe has a backup in trains, ferries, buses - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20100419/cm_csm/295530)
 
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 21 April, 2010, 09:48:21 am
Apparently there's a much bigger volcano next door, underneath a glacier, with a track record of erupting vastly every 100 years or so. It last went up in 1918, apparently...

Katla, first brought up in the thread five pages back.  It erupts something like every 40-80 years. On the three previous occasions (in the last 1100 years) that Eyjafjallajökull has erupted, it has been followed by Katla. Of course that isn't a terribly good statistical population, so I wouldn't be popping down the bookies quite yet.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Morrisette on 21 April, 2010, 10:17:12 am

most people purchase "contingency resources" in the form of travel insurance; it's hardly their fault that due to the nature of the grounding this is currently no use to them


Recent events have made me question the point of travel insurance, at least within Europe where you are covered by the EU health scheme thingie. There is so much that isn't covered, terrorism (whatever that is), 'acts of god' (surely an unexpected event is EXACTLY what insurance is for otherwise it would have been an event you knew about which they then would say was a 'material non-disclosure' and wouldn't pay out anyway!).

Obviosuly further afield, and places where medical treatment is very expensive, then it is worth it, but in Europe? I don't think so.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 21 April, 2010, 10:25:48 am
An interesting article from the Grauniad:

Why airlines resisted setting safe dust level for flights – until now (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/21/airlines-flights-ban-airspace)


and another:

Flight ban lifted – and now the recriminations begin (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/21/flight-ban-lifted-airports-reopen)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 21 April, 2010, 10:26:49 am
Conclusion #3: If those who have hired motor-cars to get from Italy or Spain back to Calais were really being charged two grand  for three days and a one-way rental fee, then the car hire firms would appear to be a bunch of revisionist rip-off merchants.  I paid less than half that for three weeks one-way in USAnia last year ???

Conclusion #4: If it chooses to go off again big time can it wait until September 24th?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 21 April, 2010, 11:03:55 am
Apparently there's a much bigger volcano next door, underneath a glacier, with a track record of erupting vastly every 100 years or so. It last went up in 1918, apparently...

Katla, first brought up in the thread five pages back.  It erupts something like every 40-80 years. On the three previous occasions (in the last 1100 years) that Eyjafjallajökull has erupted, it has been followed by Katla. Of course that isn't a terribly good statistical population, so I wouldn't be popping down the bookies quite yet.

Katla's got a good habit of rumbling and grumbling before she goes boom, and so far, she's quiet.  Still, the Icelandic Prez is right to bring it up, as contingency plans are indicated. 

Having said that, one of the plans would be "work out just what *is* safe to fly through" and we've just done that.  :)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 21 April, 2010, 11:34:45 am
An interesting article from the Grauniad:

Why airlines resisted setting safe dust level for flights – until now (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/21/airlines-flights-ban-airspace)


I don't feel the paper properly addresses what it promises... though I like:

Quote
However, an aerospace industry source told the Guardian that any attempt to blame aircraft and engine makers was "passing the buck".
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 21 April, 2010, 12:52:58 pm

most people purchase "contingency resources" in the form of travel insurance; it's hardly their fault that due to the nature of the grounding this is currently no use to them
Recent events have made me question the point of travel insurance, at least within Europe where you are covered by the EU health scheme thingie. There is so much that isn't covered, terrorism (whatever that is), 'acts of god' (surely an unexpected event is EXACTLY what insurance is for otherwise it would have been an event you knew about which they then would say was a 'material non-disclosure' and wouldn't pay out anyway!).

Obviosuly further afield, and places where medical treatment is very expensive, then it is worth it, but in Europe? I don't think so.

EU Health Scheme Thingy may not cover non-essential treatment, restorative dental treatment, etc. It won't cover the extra costs of flying you home early/late or with specialist equipment. It may not cover all expenses incurred (ambulances, doctors, medicines, etc). It may not cover you for specific 'risky' activities such as MTBing, skiing, etc.

It won't cover lost luggage, compensation due to airline mistakes (where the airlines expenses are token gestures), stolen money, lost/stolen passports, etc.

Maybe they should introduce 'Act of God' insurance. 50% of the holiday cost should do it...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: eck on 21 April, 2010, 01:00:59 pm
Has anyone seen any reports of the plight of travellers from Abroadland stuck in UK? There has been wall-to-wall coverage of the travails of plucky Brits stuck in forrin parts, but I'm not aware of anything about people who have been stranded here.
There was someone being interviewed on BBC this morning, who tried to mention it, but the interviewer brushed it aside.  ???
Only asking...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Manotea on 21 April, 2010, 01:11:50 pm
Still gloriously quiet blue skies in London W4.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Charlotte on 21 April, 2010, 01:47:34 pm
It's started here.  There were a several of contrails over South Ruislip and RAF Northolt has swung into action again (albeit I've only seen turboprops so far - no jets).

Well, that was nice whilst it lasted.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pancho on 21 April, 2010, 01:49:20 pm
Couple of high up aircraft droned their way quietly across the sky this morning.

I'd never even noticed that you could hear them before.

And I'm fairly convinced the dust on my car was volcanic today.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: tom_e on 21 April, 2010, 02:06:13 pm
Recent events have made me question the point of travel insurance, at least within Europe where you are covered by the EU health scheme thingie. There is so much that isn't covered, terrorism (whatever that is), 'acts of god' (surely an unexpected event is EXACTLY what insurance is for ...

No, it isn't (unfortunately). 

Insurance is to take the chances of each of us having an expensive but unlikely problem, and average them all together.  Everybody pays a bit of premium, to cover a larger amount if we should be the unlucky one.  It only works if our problems occur independently.  If something hits lots of people together, the averaging doesn't work.

If you can figure out a financial scheme for insuring against things where everybody gets hit at once, for a tempting price, you may have invented something quite useful.

Bad stuff happens sometimes.  There may not be anyone to blame for it.  We have to deal with it anyway.


(sorry for grumpiness, it just annoys me that there seems to be so much clamour for blame around.  I didn't hear many people campaigning for more research on the effect of volcanic ash on aircraft before this episode)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 21 April, 2010, 02:30:37 pm
Stansted is supposed to be open but I've neither seen nor heard any evidence of hairyplane hactivity yet.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Yorkshireman on 21 April, 2010, 02:46:18 pm
Just seen (in the past 10 min) a high contrail, heading in the general direction of Manchester. No signs of the big thundering buggers from RAF Waddington (which normally seem to spend a lot of time passing at a low altitude overhead.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: nuttycyclist on 21 April, 2010, 02:50:25 pm
Has anyone seen any reports of the plight of travellers from Abroadland stuck in UK? ...

Saw a few reports on various news slots.  Nothing like the coverage of "our stranded" though.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 21 April, 2010, 02:59:41 pm
Well, they'm furrinerz.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Morrisette on 21 April, 2010, 04:29:44 pm
Deleted due to rant about insurance company bastards. Soz.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 21 April, 2010, 07:12:09 pm
Good link (from a late 1999 Boeing magazine BTW!)

Aero 09 - Volcanic Ash Avoidance (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_09/volcanic_story.html)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 21 April, 2010, 07:39:25 pm
That's a comprehensive list of "holy crap! flee!" recommendations.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 21 April, 2010, 08:18:46 pm
I would hope that airlines have a set of procedures for possible ash ingestion, similar to, but more detailed than what was in that article.  I would really hope that any aircraft currently flying around the area that was closed (and which could be closed again in the event of another eruption) have such a procedure now. :-\
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 21 April, 2010, 08:51:31 pm
I would hope that airlines have a set of procedures for possible ash ingestion, similar to, but more detailed than what was in that article.  I would really hope that any aircraft currently flying around the area that was closed (and which could be closed again in the event of another eruption) have such a procedure now. :-\

Of course we have procedures for ash encounters. As we have for almost any forseeable event, and quite a few not so foreseeable. And the majority have, at least to some extent, to be committed to the pilot's memory. As for all hazardous situations, we practise ways both to avoid the situation, and to mitigate the hazards if avoidance is not possible.

I repeat what I said earlier, however: volcanic ash has never killed or injured a commercial passenger. There are a great many other hazards we face which have killed, but which have never prompted the kind of hysterical reaction that this bloody volcano has. Even terrorist activity, which over the years has killed several thousand people in or by aeroplanes, hasn't provoked such a reaction. Remember 9/11? We were back in the air four days later even though the threat had been far from removed - and still hasn't been 9 years later. We applied risk management to that problem as we are to this one - and this is a minor issue by comparison.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 21 April, 2010, 08:52:57 pm
I see that Ryan Air are busy ensuring that none of their stranded passengers ever, ever, ever use them again.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 21 April, 2010, 09:07:31 pm
I didn't really think that procedures didn't exist, but that link to the Boeing Magazine was a bit bizarre, since it has a list of nine procedures written in a fairly mickie mouse fashion.

Why would you bother publishing that, if you're clearly going to have much more detailed and complete recommendations that the operator will base their instructions on?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Martin on 21 April, 2010, 10:14:43 pm
the decisicion to send Navy ships was questioned too.

AIUI the Royal Navy ship (one) was sent to pick up troops on their way back home from a tour of duty in Afghanistan who had had to land in Spain

I don't think that's unreasonable
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: clarion on 21 April, 2010, 10:47:22 pm
I am led to believe they picked up Boris Johnson & brought him back.

I don't think that's reasonable ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Adrian on 21 April, 2010, 11:00:14 pm
I am led to believe they picked up Boris Johnson & brought him back.

I don't think that's reasonable ;D

I understand that it was his Mum and Dad and that this was necessary because he listens to his Mum
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andygates on 22 April, 2010, 07:07:29 am
Johnson Senior and a bunch of civilians (including a kids' footy team with a broken-legged player) managed to blag spare space on Albion.  They were in cabins, so the space must have been spare; a nice blag, that.

Odd, you listen to Bozzapater and it's clear that the apple really doesn't fall far from the tree!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Rapples on 22 April, 2010, 07:13:34 am
Don't ask why I was reading the Sun :facepalm:

Interesting link though, with a recording of the crew

UK flight is aborted after pilot smells volcanic ash | The Sun |News (http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2942884/UK-flight-is-aborted-after-pilot-smells-volcanic-ash.html)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 22 April, 2010, 08:57:45 am
I see that Ryan Air are busy ensuring that none of their stranded passengers ever, ever, ever use them again.

They know how to win friends and influence people, don't they? But they have a serious point - if it's legal for the insurance companies to wash their hands of any liability because this is an 'act of God', how come the airlines remain liable for all the accommodation and other expenses? There is an inconsistency here which needs addressing. If travel insurers aren't willing to accept their liabilities, then maybe it's time to cut them out of the loop and apply the travel insurance premium to the flight ticket...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: PaulF on 22 April, 2010, 09:07:32 am
The Star had an alarmist picture yesterday of a 747 with fire streaming out of all 4 engines and a halo of St Elmo's fire around it. With a 'shock' headline of "747 in Volcano horror" or somesuch. My first thought was that it was a fake but it took until page 8 to reveal that it was of simulation of how it might look :facepalm:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pancho on 22 April, 2010, 09:26:37 am
I see that Ryan Air are busy ensuring that none of their stranded passengers ever, ever, ever use them again.

They know how to win friends and influence people, don't they? But they have a serious point - if it's legal for the insurance companies to wash their hands of any liability because this is an 'act of God', how come the airlines remain liable for all the accommodation and other expenses? There is an inconsistency here which needs addressing. If travel insurers aren't willing to accept their liabilities, then maybe it's time to cut them out of the loop and apply the travel insurance premium to the flight ticket...

The insurance companies aren't refusing to accept their liabilities - they're operating iaw the insurance contracts. Customers should have read the contract they were signing.

Ryanair, OTOH, are proposing to act outside the law. Ryanair should have read the legal framework within which they are operating. Of course, by not reading it (or by understanding it and hoping it would not happen or that they could con(vince) the tax payer to foot the bill), Ryanair was able to make shed loads of cash selling tickets for 20 euros.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Charlotte on 22 April, 2010, 09:30:06 am
how come the airlines remain liable for all the accommodation and other expenses?

Because it's the law?

Ryan Air and their ilk have to accept that by shaving down their service and their fares to become ultra-competitive, they're opening themselves up to a bigger risk when flights are cancelled.

There is an inconsistency here which needs addressing. If travel insurers aren't willing to accept their liabilities, then maybe it's time to cut them out of the loop and apply the travel insurance premium to the flight ticket...

Maybe so, but as it currently stands, the airline has a contract to carry the passenger from A to B at the time stated on the ticket.  If they can't fulfil that contract then they're going to be liable to have to reschedule the flight and (if they're away from home) put the passenger up in a hotel and feed them until such time as they can transport them.  I'd say that this represents a minimum acceptable level of service under the circumstances.

Most people would agree that this is an exceptional situation, but it's not like Ryan Air didn't know what the rules were.  If the airline hasn't factored in the risk of cancellations into their cashflow, that's up to them.

If they don't pay up, I fully expect to see them taken to court by a bunch of pissed off passengers who will win what was due to them.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 22 April, 2010, 09:39:33 am
There is an inconsistency here which needs addressing. If travel insurers aren't willing to accept their liabilities, then maybe it's time to cut them out of the loop and apply the travel insurance premium to the flight ticket...

Agreed.

The inconsistency should be addressed. Not retrospectively though, that would be daft.

We may even see a readdressing of the level of air fares.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 22 April, 2010, 09:43:52 am
Lying Air and Michael O'Leary acting like cnuts and wanting to break the law*...

Quelle suprise!



*They have a history of that.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: CommuteTooFar on 22 April, 2010, 10:43:22 am
Step 1. Write to Ryan Air demanding payment of reasonable expenses within a month. Enclose copies of receipts etc.
Step 2. If month elapses without payment. Make small claims court action.
Step 3. If payment order is ignored by Ryan Air, injunct them for contempt of court and send in baliffs to sieze Ryan Air aircraft.
Step 4. Accept payment.

I'm a bit hazy on the details but legal types will know how to do it.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Manotea on 22 April, 2010, 10:50:46 am
Just heard a plane over London W4. Sob.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 22 April, 2010, 10:53:38 am
Johnson Senior and a bunch of civilians (including a kids' footy team with a broken-legged player) managed to blag spare space on Albion.  They were in cabins, so the space must have been spare; a nice blag, that.

More than likely the soldiers gave up the use of the cabins so that the civilians could use them.

Interesting to hear radio interviews of some of the people brought back on the HMS Albion, most went along the lines of:

"
Yes, we were stuck in a hotel with not much to do and not much information and spent two nights sleeping in an airport with screaming children; it wasn't great but listening to some of the stories the soldiers on the ship returning from duty were telling us about the conditions they put up with whilst serving for 6 months in Afghanistan was a little humbling compared to our short break away from home.
"
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pancho on 22 April, 2010, 10:56:48 am
More than a little humbling, I'd imagine. I'd rather walk back from Spain than take a soldier's bed.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 22 April, 2010, 11:43:36 am
More than a little humbling, I'd imagine. I'd rather walk back from Spain than take a soldier's bed.

My guess is that they'd probably be happy to give any bed up and share experiences with the public...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 22 April, 2010, 11:57:01 am
...Ryanair, OTOH, are proposing to act outside the law. Ryanair should have read the legal framework within which they are operating. Of course, by not reading it (or by understanding it and hoping it would not happen or that they could con(vince) the tax payer to foot the bill), Ryanair was able to make shed loads of cash selling tickets for 20 euros.
Ryanair really, really, can't & won't do it. On their own website is this little beauty, under which they set out what, under EU law, they are required to do -
http://www.ryanair.com/doc/faqs/EU261_EN.pdf (http://www.ryanair.com/doc/faqs/EU261_EN.pdf)

I can see how they can wriggle out of paying any compensation (circumstances beyond their control), but their passengers still have the 'Right to care'. I'm sure that any court would take an exceedingly dim view of Mr. O'Leary & his minions trying to simultaneously break both the law, & their own contracts (anything like that on their website forms part of those contracts) with their customers. And I'm sure that Charlotte is right, & some of those disgruntled travellers would take Ryanair to court.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 22 April, 2010, 12:00:54 pm
More than a little humbling, I'd imagine. I'd rather walk back from Spain than take a soldier's bed.
From the pictures on the news, it looked as if a lot of the civilians were on camp beds on the vehicle deck. Perhaps the cabins were reserved for the more fragile, e.g. the boy with the broken leg, & maybe the elderly.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: PaulF on 22 April, 2010, 12:02:27 pm
...Ryanair, OTOH, are proposing to act outside the law. Ryanair should have read the legal framework within which they are operating. Of course, by not reading it (or by understanding it and hoping it would not happen or that they could con(vince) the tax payer to foot the bill), Ryanair was able to make shed loads of cash selling tickets for 20 euros.
Ryanair really, really, can't & won't do it. On their own website is this little beauty, under which they set out what, under EU law, they are required to do -
http://www.ryanair.com/doc/faqs/EU261_EN.pdf (http://www.ryanair.com/doc/faqs/EU261_EN.pdf)

I can see how they can wriggle out of paying any compensation (circumstances beyond their control), but their passengers still have the 'Right to care'. I'm sure that any court would take an exceedingly dim view of Mr. O'Leary & his minions trying to simultaneously break both the law, & their own contracts (anything like that on their website forms part of those contracts) with their customers. And I'm sure that Charlotte is right, & some of those disgruntled travellers would take Ryanair to court.

Looks like they've backed down BBC News - Volcano ash: Ryanair backs down over expenses (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8636944.stm) :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: David Martin on 22 April, 2010, 01:13:44 pm

Looks like they've backed down BBC News - Volcano ash: Ryanair backs down over expenses (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8636944.stm) :thumbsup:

And in the process got far more publicity than any other airline. They've been able to push their mesage of low fares without spending a penny in advertising.

..d
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mr Larrington on 22 April, 2010, 01:25:21 pm
Looks like they've backed down BBC News - Volcano ash: Ryanair backs down over expenses (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8636944.stm) :thumbsup:

"Mr O'Leary admitted to the BBC that he had made a mistake."

There's a first.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 22 April, 2010, 01:27:15 pm
And in the process got far more publicity than any other airline. They've been able to push their mesage of low fares without spending a penny in advertising.

Mr O'Leary is a wily so-and-so.

1. Publicly announce that no refunds over the cost of the initial ticket will be paid out.
2. Wait for media revolt.
3. Back down and say that 'reasonable' claims will be paid out (Who would justify 'unreasonable' claims to be paid out?).
4. Wait for reduced numbers of claimants as many think they won't get a penny back. Pay out majority of them except the idiots that thought they could get away with staying in £300 a night spa hotels.
5. Bask in free advertising. Especially as he repeats his "We just want to offer the public cheap flights" mantra.
6. Stir up some support amongst the other airlines who also believe the EU legislation unfairly picks on the airlines (as noted above, the paid for hotels/food/phone-calls don't apply to cancelled/delayed ferries, trains, coaches, etc).

Ryanair have a long way to go to piss off enough people that their 'planes won't be full enough for them to make a profit. I've heard several people say "I'll never fly them again." but are lured back by the choice of £20 on Ryanair or £100 on BA or EasyJet.

Safety aside, I'd quite happily stand for an hour long short-haul flight (I'd expect Ryanair to start charging for seats if they could get away with it).
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 22 April, 2010, 04:01:09 pm
An RAF jet has been affected. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8637978.stm)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: mattc on 22 April, 2010, 04:29:09 pm
An RAF jet has been affected. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8637978.stm)
You've been reading the Wail too much ;)

Quote
Training flights on RAF Typhoons in Lincolnshire have been suspended after ash deposits were found in one aircraft's engines.

An RAF spokesman said the Typhoons were "very high performance jets" so staff were "just being extra cautious".
So it's only been affected in as much as my car has i.e. there's some ash on it :P
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 22 April, 2010, 05:17:11 pm
how come the airlines remain liable for all the accommodation and other expenses?

Because it's the law?


I'm well aware of that, and it is, or was, only Ryanair that was stirring things by suggesting they might not pay - which may well have been simply for publicity, as is their wont. However, a serious point remains; the European laws regarding air carriers' liability for their passengers' welfare if their journeys are interrupted or delayed were written with mechanical and organisational hiccups in mind, not total airspace shutdowns instigated by the regulators (government agencies). It seems more than a little unreasonable that governments can force the airlines to stop operating and then require them to pay to accommodate their passengers! I suspect there will be some assiduous lobbying on this issue.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pancho on 22 April, 2010, 05:30:39 pm
how come the airlines remain liable for all the accommodation and other expenses?

Because it's the law?


I'm well aware of that, and it is, or was, only Ryanair that was stirring things by suggesting they might not pay - which may well have been simply for publicity, as is their wont. However, a serious point remains; the European laws regarding air carriers' liability for their passengers' welfare if their journeys are interrupted or delayed were written with mechanical and organisational hiccups in mind, not total airspace shutdowns instigated by the regulators (government agencies). It seems more than a little unreasonable that governments can force the airlines to stop operating and then require them to pay to accommodate their passengers! I suspect there will be some assiduous lobbying on this issue.

You say it's unfair for the airline to pay. Well, as a non-flying taxpayer, I'm damned if I'll foot the bill for Ryanair's profits and for cheap holidays for people less environmentally careful than myself.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 22 April, 2010, 05:39:41 pm
how come the airlines remain liable for all the accommodation and other expenses?

Because it's the law?


I'm well aware of that, and it is, or was, only Ryanair that was stirring things by suggesting they might not pay - which may well have been simply for publicity, as is their wont. However, a serious point remains; the European laws regarding air carriers' liability for their passengers' welfare if their journeys are interrupted or delayed were written with mechanical and organisational hiccups in mind, not total airspace shutdowns instigated by the regulators (government agencies). It seems more than a little unreasonable that governments can force the airlines to stop operating and then require them to pay to accommodate their passengers! I suspect there will be some assiduous lobbying on this issue.

You say it's unfair for the airline to pay. Well, as a non-flying taxpayer, I'm damned if I'll foot the bill for Ryanair's profits and for cheap holidays for people less environmentally careful than myself.

+1  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Adam on 22 April, 2010, 07:02:35 pm
how come the airlines remain liable for all the accommodation and other expenses?

Because it's the law?


I'm well aware of that, and it is, or was, only Ryanair that was stirring things by suggesting they might not pay - which may well have been simply for publicity, as is their wont. However, a serious point remains; the European laws regarding air carriers' liability for their passengers' welfare if their journeys are interrupted or delayed were written with mechanical and organisational hiccups in mind, not total airspace shutdowns instigated by the regulators (government agencies). It seems more than a little unreasonable that governments can force the airlines to stop operating and then require them to pay to accommodate their passengers! I suspect there will be some assiduous lobbying on this issue.

You say it's unfair for the airline to pay. Well, as a non-flying taxpayer, I'm damned if I'll foot the bill for Ryanair's profits and for cheap holidays for people less environmentally careful than myself.

Why would taxpayers be expected to pay?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: DuncanM on 22 April, 2010, 07:36:42 pm
Because the airlines are blaming the government for being over cautious and causing them to be grounded. It's all the government's fault!  ::-)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 22 April, 2010, 08:03:22 pm
In what way was it the airlines' fault these passengers were delayed?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: DuncanM on 22 April, 2010, 08:13:40 pm
I didn't say it was. But the airlines have a duty under law to compensate passengers. The gov't has no legal obligation to compensate airlines.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 22 April, 2010, 08:56:49 pm
I didn't really think that procedures didn't exist, but that link to the Boeing Magazine was a bit bizarre, since it has a list of nine procedures written in a fairly mickie mouse fashion.

Why would you bother publishing that, if you're clearly going to have much more detailed and complete recommendations that the operator will base their instructions on?

It IS a magazine! And one that is 11 years old...


Plus, and I quote:
Quote
Procedures.
The following nine procedures are general recommendations. Each operator's flight operations manuals will include more specific directions.

 ::-)

Finally they contain most (all?) of the essentials; so not not mickey mouse IMO.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 22 April, 2010, 08:59:39 pm
It was just kind of oddly phrased, and I didn't check what the age of the article was...

Anyway, back to the normal thread of arguing about whose fault it is, and who should pay for it. ;D
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 22 April, 2010, 10:26:37 pm
In what way was it the airlines' fault these passengers were delayed?

None at all.

They would have carried on flying regardless.  ???
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: alexb on 23 April, 2010, 12:00:05 am
Because the airlines are blaming the government for being over cautious and causing them to be grounded. It's all the government's fault!  ::-)

Ok, simple question.
Has anyone seen anything to suggest that the government and the CAA etc. know anything more about how must ash is in the flight paths now, today, than they did when they shut down the flights?

There have been a few (a very few) flights by UK research aircraft to try to sample the plume. I have some (good) reasons to suspect that they failed to collect anything. They were also supposed to partially map the plume with LIDAR. However, there has been very little come out so I wonder how well this worked.

As I understand it, the engine manufacturers have refused to set a limit for ash exposure and I believe that this is because there is no way to actually sample the level of ash encountered in real time. The on board instrumentation cannot detect ash clouds so I really wonder what basis the skies have been reopened?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Wowbagger on 23 April, 2010, 12:22:07 am
It seems more than a little unreasonable that governments can force the airlines to stop operating and then require them to pay to accommodate their passengers! I suspect there will be some assiduous lobbying on this issue.

I disagree.

Airlines, just like everyone else, have a duty of care over their passengers. It makes absolutely no sense in airlines cutting their fares to the bone in order to get more people onto planes and then complaining when their overheads increase. They knew the rules and they also knew that Iceland has volcanoes. They should just have charged more - after all, they get all that lovely tax-free fuel: that's a much bigger subsidy than any other means of transport gets.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 23 April, 2010, 07:20:06 am
In what way was it the airlines' fault these passengers were delayed?

What Tim is hinting is that this was a case of force majeure; a case that has not been considered when the EU regulations were devised one could argue.

It is not that airlines would have continued to fly regardless (stating this is displaying a poor knowledge of the aero world) either.

The community has mainly been pushing for the current decision process to be reviewed, so that a better range of measures starting and ending such closure be formulated. In-flight tests have been carried out by equipped airplanes and by normal airplanes; much has been learnt. Other counytries have implemented other measure form which we could learn. More remains to be learnt.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 23 April, 2010, 07:42:24 am

It is not that airlines would have continued to fly regardless (stating this is displaying a poor knowledge of the aero world) either.



so, let me get this right...

...they'd stop flying for a while, then start flying again?

Any regardless of that - where has the pressure been to get research into volcanoes since 1982? Presumably the airlines have been doing research/fighting tooth and nail for research?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Adrian on 23 April, 2010, 08:00:36 am

Any regardless of that - where has the pressure been to get research into volcanoes since 1982? Presumably the airlines have been doing research/fighting tooth and nail for research?


Tim acknowledged that the airlines hadn't helped themselves on this point several pages back. (http://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=32108.msg600031#msg600031)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 23 April, 2010, 08:08:48 am

Any regardless of that - where has the pressure been to get research into volcanoes since 1982? Presumably the airlines have been doing research/fighting tooth and nail for research?


Tim acknowledged that the airlines hadn't helped themselves on this point several pages back. (http://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=32108.msg600031#msg600031)

Dealt here indeed. As an answer to jaded Already I note too.

Volcano Grounds 'Planes (http://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=32108.msg600031#msg600031)

See the bottom on p. 22 as well Jaded!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 23 April, 2010, 08:20:14 am

         David Prosser: For once, Ryanair may actually have a case -
            Business Comment, Business - The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-prosser-for-once-ryanair-may-actually-have-a-case-1951851.html)
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pancho on 23 April, 2010, 08:32:35 am
Of course, more research is needed and more sophisticated procedures must be developed asap. The industry and the regulators have been remiss in not doing more to date.

But, the issue of compensation remains - for day-to-day delays and for the rare blanket of thick ash that even with improved procedures means a blanket ban.

This contingency cost can either be met by the passengers via higher ticket prices or, as Ryanair seem to want, by taxpayers. The latter would be insane and the industry needs to work out how to insure against largescale events which are outside the scope of conventional insurance.

There is a legitimate question about why airlines should provide a duty of care where, say, bus services and other travel providers do not. This simply comes down to distances involved and the difficulties and costs incurred when things go wrong. If the rails system breaks down, most people can get home OK but, as we've seen, when the air system fails it rapidly becomes almost a civil emergency with hundreds of thousands stuck an impossible distance from home.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 23 April, 2010, 08:35:33 am
So we are all agreed then, accept what has happened and move on by looking at rules for flying in ash clouds and about airlines responsibilities towards their customers in times like this for next time.

Seems like this thread is dead now.


Any regardless of that - where has the pressure been to get research into volcanoes since 1982? Presumably the airlines have been doing research/fighting tooth and nail for research?


Tim acknowledged that the airlines hadn't helped themselves on this point several pages back. (http://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=32108.msg600031#msg600031)

Dealt here indeed. As an answer to jaded Already I note too.

Volcano Grounds 'Planes (http://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=32108.msg600031#msg600031)

See the bottom on p. 22 as well Jaded!
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Charlotte on 23 April, 2010, 08:37:53 am
Looks like they've backed down BBC News - Volcano ash: Ryanair backs down over expenses (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8636944.stm) :thumbsup:

I would expect little else from Mr O'Leary and his bargain-basement operation.  If this has cost Ryanair between 30 and 40 million euros, he's probably got every right to be a bit pissed off.

But not only has he wrung every possible drop of free publicity from this situation,  he's realised that by making passengers think that they might not get refunded for their "reasonable expenses" (or at least that they might have to sue to recover them) he's ensured that anything people have spent on hotels, food, etc. will have been the absolute bare minimum.  You've got to admit - he's a shrewd fecker.

I've said it before, operations like Ryanair, Tescos, Foxtons and all the other companies that we love to hate aren't intrinsically bad or evil.  They just operate in a marketplace that lets them maximise their profits under any given circumstances through unfair tactics and underhand practices.  We get ostensibly cheap flights and cheap food, but we end up paying for it another way (environment, loss of taxes, miserable employee wages).  If we want better, we have to legislate for it and we have to accept that it'll cost more up front.

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 23 April, 2010, 08:45:49 am
If we want better, we have to legislate for it and we have to accept that it'll cost more up front.

Exactly. The compensation rules were put in place when it cost a proper amount to go places by planes. Maybe the solution is to allow the airlines to charge tuppence halfpenny to fly somewhere, but make it compulsory that passengers carry repatriation insurance?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pancho on 23 April, 2010, 08:50:00 am
I would expect little else from Mr O'Leary and his bargain-basement operation.  If this has cost Ryanair between 30 and 40 million euros, he's probably got every right to be a bit pissed off.

Does he? He knew the legislation but chose to gamble on the total shutdown event not happening. He's profited from the resulting low prices and higher volumes for years. So, no, he has no right to be pissed off that his profitable gamble has come to an end.

Quote
If we want better, we have to legislate for it and we have to accept that it'll cost more up front.

In this case, we have legislated for it.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Oscar's dad on 23 April, 2010, 08:58:42 am

I've said it before, operations like Ryanair, Tescos, Foxtons and all the other companies that we love to hate aren't intrinsically bad or evil.  ...  If we want better, we have to legislate for it and we have to accept that it'll cost more up front.


Good point.  I think the issue lies with consumers, they expect too much from these budget operations.  What you have a right to expect is determined by the price you pay. 

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: David Martin on 23 April, 2010, 09:16:44 am

Good point.  I think the issue lies with consumers, they expect too much from these budget operations.  What you have a right to expect is determined by the price you pay. 



As a consumer I would expect to get what is laid down in law that I should recieve. If a company decides that they can provide such a service within the law for X then so be it, but they can't then claim special exemption because they underpriced X to cover the contigency. They knew what the law was as well as the passengers. They chose to risk charging cheap fares. They got burned this time. That is business and there is legislation to provide a fair contract.

The extra cost to Ryan Air of 30-40m Euro is about 10% of annual *profit*.

Me thinks Mr O'Leary protesteth too much.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Oscar's dad on 23 April, 2010, 09:24:03 am
^^^ All true but but passengers choosing to fly on Ryanair have got to expect they will do all they can to wriggle out of their obligations.  Ryanair's reputation gets enough publicity.

Having said this, I was due to fly Ryanair on Monday and obviously didn't.  Their website provided an easy method for me to claim a refund.  Granted I haven't got the cash yet but am happy to wait as I guess their refunds department is a bit busy.

In the past I have found Ryanair to be excellent - good service and punctual.  I can't say the same for Easyjet who have let me down on a number of occasions.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Domestique on 23 April, 2010, 12:36:01 pm
Did Ryanair pay their pilots/cabin crew whilst the planes where grounded?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Greenbank on 23 April, 2010, 01:42:39 pm
Did Ryanair pay their pilots/cabin crew whilst the planes where grounded?

Whether or not they get paid in such a situation depends on the individual employment contracts.

They may lose bonus/commission/allowance type payments but they can't stop paying base salary.

Why do you ask?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Bledlow on 23 April, 2010, 02:44:27 pm
He knew the legislation but chose to gamble on the total shutdown event not happening. He's profited from the resulting low prices and higher volumes for years. So, no, he has no right to be pissed off that his profitable gamble has come to an end.
Absolutely.

He's in the same position as someone who chooses not to buy insurance, gambling that the money saved in premiums will pay for itself in the long run. Given Ryanair's profits, I reckon he's still ahead on the deal. He has no grounds for complaint. His whining is just a ploy to make more profit, by offloading some of his risks.

The insurers plea that covering risks such as this is unaffordable is also specious. They routinely cover bigger risks. Personally, I'd happily forgo insurance for many of the high-frequency small payout risks they do cover for, in exchange for better coverage of low-frequency expensive things. From what little I know of their operations, I suspect a realistic premium for such insurance would be lower, not higher, than current travel policies.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 24 April, 2010, 02:09:44 pm
Jaded, you patently have little or no knowledge of the airline industry, and you seem unwilling to learn. The European legislation that Ryanair (and all other European airlines) are objecting to is very recent, and was framed to counter a perceived practise of airlines overbooking flights without penalty. It was not intended to cater for the current regulator-imposed stoppage, for which no insurance cover is available. Even under this ill-framed legislation, there is NO right of compensation, simply a right of recompense for 'reasonable' expenditure. Leaving Ryanair out of the equation for the moment (and Frenchie's Indie link gives the story very well), all the major airlines have done their very best to comply with the legislation - and certainly our customers are, in the vast majority, very thankful for that. However, that doesn't alter the fact that the legislation is unfair, and has no parallel for any other industry.

Further, your contention that the airlines would have continued flying regardless shows both an ignorance of the safety culture if the industry, and a wilfull disregard of its safety record. If you want to tell us that the industry is casual about safety, show me your evidence.

There are many here who wish to use this episode to soapbox their distaste for an industry which they see as incompatible with their environmental views. That's fair enough, but please try and couch your arguments in fact, not prejudice and assumption.   
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Jaded on 24 April, 2010, 02:26:08 pm

Further, your contention that the airlines would have continued flying regardless shows both an ignorance of the safety culture if the industry, and a wilfull disregard of its safety record. If you want to tell us that the industry is casual about safety, show me your evidence.


You missed the triple question mark after my point. Which was that the implication of what you were saying (that it wasn't the airlines fault that they were grounded) was that they would have carried on flying. If they wouldn't, when would they have flown again - and how much would this have differed from what actually happened?

I can certainly understand you getting exercised about the situation, given what you do. I don't have an issue with the industry per-se. I do believe that ridiculously low fares are wrong.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimC on 24 April, 2010, 02:39:05 pm
Ok, I apologise if I misunderstood you!

Really low fares piss me off too. I want my company to make a decent profit in which I can share. I resent the dice to the bottom of the market that Ryanair represents, and I have grave doubts about it on many levels. But that's a different topic for a different thread.

To your point about how we'd have resumed; we'd have done it as we did after Pinatubo and Mt St Helens (among many others), by applying sensible no-fly zones proportionate to the risk, in consultation with manufacturers, other airlines, regulators and safety agencies. Imposition and precipitate action not backed by evidence or experience would have been avoided - and, being self-imposed restrictions, they would havebeen easier to adjust as circumstances changed, and there would have been no arguments about protecting stranded passengers!     
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 04 May, 2010, 07:41:14 am
It's back....!

Irish and Scottish flights grounded. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8658738.stm)

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: TimO on 04 May, 2010, 07:49:11 am
Yes, and looking at the most recent (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1272949726.png) VAAC plots, it's projected to slowly travel Eastward across the UK, so it wouldn't surprise me to see all the major UK airports closed again. :-\
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 04 May, 2010, 07:54:58 am
Yes, and looking at the most recent (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1272949726.png) VAAC plots, it's projected to slowly travel Eastward across the UK, so it wouldn't surprise me to see all the major UK airports closed again. :-\

...and blessed peace descending once again.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: border-rider on 04 May, 2010, 08:08:24 am
Oh well

Helsinki's not a bad place to be stuck - and at least I have my running shoes, and nothing too desperate to be back in the UK for :)

Got away with Rome last week, which was the more important one to get to/from

edit: might have to buy some swimming trunks to make use of the hotel pool though.  Damn.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Mrs Pingu on 04 May, 2010, 08:15:03 am
Hmmm, what are the odds I get out of Furryboot toon ok this morning and then get stuck in Heathrow?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: PaulF on 04 May, 2010, 08:20:21 am
Well I took the train to Belgium but am due to fly home. Best get a Eurostar reservation sorted when I get to the office.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: andyoxon on 04 May, 2010, 01:30:47 pm
Iceland Meteorological office - Earthquakes Mýrdalsjökull, Iceland (http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/)

Eyja-thingy volcano seems more active...

Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 04 May, 2010, 05:48:41 pm
Due to fly to Scotland tomorrow... Hummm...
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Andrij on 04 May, 2010, 06:36:23 pm
Due to fly to Scotland tomorrow... Hummm...

Following on from some of the video links you've posted, you should be fine tomorrow.  As long as your plane stays at tree-top level.  ;)
 
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pingu on 04 May, 2010, 09:27:03 pm
Scottish and N Irish airspace to close in new ash risk (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8661096.stm)

I suspect Mrs P got away OK, haven't heard from her yet.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 04 May, 2010, 09:44:32 pm
Due to fly to Scotland tomorrow... Hummm...

Following on from some of the video links you've posted, you should be fine tomorrow.  As long as your plane stays at tree-top level.  ;)
 


Civil gas turbines do not operate well at these sadly. But if the airspace is closed that consideration is not even worth mentioning...

Since my flight was due for departure at 07:05 heading for Scotland, with the CAA announcement of a short while ago, it means that I'm probably staying home and will miss my conference meetings. Grrr... [Interestingly my carrier has still not made any announcement!]
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: David Martin on 05 May, 2010, 12:37:19 am
Heading anywhere nice? Which part of Scotland?
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Regulator on 05 May, 2010, 06:37:08 am
Scottish airports will be closed today, with the exceptions of Edinburgh and Aberdeen and flights eastwards.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 05 May, 2010, 10:46:23 am
Well my flight to Edin was cancelled. Only the <expletive> carrier could not type the flight number accurately on their website, which kept me busy longer than I ought to have been between 3:00 and 5:00. Incredible that under such circumstances they can't get that right (the flight number they mistyped made little sense according to their schedule, so I was pretty sure it was wrong, but...). I have kept the various copies of the website and will point that to them from work, if I have the time.

Hopefully my researcher will be okay coming back. Now he has to give two talks; he may as well as he is already there.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Pingu on 05 May, 2010, 02:42:38 pm
Edinburgh now closed.
Title: Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
Post by: Frenchie on 05 May, 2010, 07:09:53 pm
Tomorrow the mission is to bring the troops back from Edin.