Author Topic: Volcano Grounds 'Planes  (Read 53818 times)

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #250 on: 17 April, 2010, 10:28:51 pm »
There has been no neglect or deliberate poor service on the part of the airlines, it's a frikin volcano.

This is what the airlines are saying; however the new regs are, at they stand, it would appear, against them. But note that I am not an expert on the matter!!

In any case the cost to the economy is going to be very significant; and to a sector in difficulty something they don't need.
Frenchie - Train à Grande Vitesse

andygates

  • Peroxide Viking
Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #251 on: 17 April, 2010, 10:31:24 pm »
Much of the operations in the sector are luxuries with a high environmental cost.  I won't lose any sleep over a few days of loss.
It takes blood and guts to be this cool but I'm still just a cliché.
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woollypigs

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Zoidburg

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #253 on: 17 April, 2010, 10:34:11 pm »
There has been no neglect or deliberate poor service on the part of the airlines, it's a frikin volcano.

This is what the airlines are saying; however the new regs are, at they stand, it would appear, against them. But note that I am not an expert on the matter!!

In any case the cost to the economy is going to be very significant; and to a sector in difficulty something they don't need.
If they should fail to take care of someone properly due to them being stranded then yes they will get shafted.

The fact that they were stranded in the fist place though is not something they should be compensated for beyond a refund of the fare.

2_Flat_Erics

  • 2 Flat Eric's
Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #254 on: 17 April, 2010, 10:36:40 pm »
Around half a million people directly or indirectly employed by aviation in UK are fervently hoping it doesn't go on long. At a cost of £200m a day, just in UK, there are several businesses in aviation already looking shaky. The cash outflow right now is horrendous, and it will get worse. It may well see more than one airline closed permanently.

The airline industry is one of the most heavily subsidised industries in the UK, and around the world. A few of them going bust will be no loss to the majority of people and we will get a few planes out of circulation permenantly which can't be a bad thing. Less noise, less polution, less money coming out of the tax payers coffers.

Really? You are referring, I assume, to the fact that aviation fuel isn't taxed. You're right, it's not. When international aviation treaties were negotiated, no workable method could be found of applying tax evenly worldwide. That is, if you like, a failure of politics, not some subversive trickery of the industry. I'd love you to show me in what other way the industry is 'subsidised'. There are no grants, no other tax breaks, nothing. And extra tax is levied, over and above all normal taxes, directly on the airlines for each ticket sold.

Quote
Of course there is also a human cost if an airline goes bust and people loose their jobs. Welcome to the real world where this happens to people every day in all sorts of industies. I've been made redundant 5 times in the past 20 years. Crap happens to all of us all the time but we just get on with life as well.

Are you trying to suggest that the airline industry is immune to economics, and doesn't see companies go bust? Can I refer you to the 40-odd airlines that have gone bust over the last 18 months? Don't tell me to get real - many of my friends are unemployed now, and some will remain so for a very long time. Many will have to move a long way away from UK to get another job. Many will have double your number of redundancies. Airlines are amongst the least secure employers, especially in UK where there are no, repeat no, government-subsidised companies.



Yes, I am referring to the tax breaks on fuel that the airlines receive. No fuel duty and no VAT on fuel. I recall from a recent report on BBC news 24 that the fuel tax breaks alone save the airlines in excess of £10 billion each year. The fact that this subsidy exits because of a political failure is irrelevant.

Then of course the other big subsidy is the 0 rate VAT on new aircraft over a certain weight. Another political failure? I don't know how much this saves the airline industry each year but i suspect it's a another rather obscene figure.

The subsidies are not direct but they still boil down to a subsidy that other competing industries like the train companies and ferry companies do not benefit from.

Companies that are not in the same privileged position as the airlines go bust every day. It is never nice when people lose jobs but it happens and we all just have to get on with things.

There are all sorts of reasons to reduce the amount of air travel and replace it with other alternative modes. Especially internal and short haul flights where there are generally viable alternatives which often lose out because they can no longer compete on price with the (indirectly) subsidised airlines.

Maybe the current lack of flights will help us to re-evaluate our transport priorities from economic, political and environmental perspectives.
Never argue with an idot....
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then win on experience.

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Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #255 on: 17 April, 2010, 10:38:27 pm »
There has been no neglect or deliberate poor service on the part of the airlines, it's a frikin volcano.

This is what the airlines are saying; however the new regs are, at they stand, it would appear, against them. But note that I am not an expert on the matter!!

In any case the cost to the economy is going to be very significant; and to a sector in difficulty something they don't need.
If they should fail to take care of someone properly due to them being stranded then yes they will get shafted.

The fact that they were stranded in the fist place though is not something they should be compensated for beyond a refund of the fare.

... sure but their costs (well some of them such as staff and airplanes for example) do not go away.
Frenchie - Train à Grande Vitesse

Zoidburg

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #256 on: 17 April, 2010, 10:40:38 pm »
Oh the operational costs are going to have to be covered somehow for sure.

I suppose survival will depend on what the overheads where in the first place.

Yay for modern business models - only looking a year ahead.

 :sick:

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #257 on: 18 April, 2010, 08:18:29 pm »
Pictures have surfaced of turbine blades from Finnish air force F-18s which were in the air when the ash drifted over Finland. They're damaged, but not dangerously so. BUT - these were F404 military turbofans, with a bypass ratio of ca 0.35:1, meaning most of the air (& ash) going into them went through the core. A civil turbofan has a much higher bypass ratio, typically over 5:1, & most of the air - and even more the ash (I'm informed, I think reliably, that the ash, particularly the heavier particles, will tend to go into the bypass air rather than through the core) will therefore not go into the core. This is important: the main source of damage to jet engines from volcanic ash is it melting in the hot core, & being deposited on critical parts such as turbine blades. Ash in bypass air is relatively harmless.

My informant, a former Rolls-Royce engineer (proper one: Masters degree in it 'n all), thinks that the grounding is an overreaction. He doesn't believe the ash cloud is dense enough to be dangerous. Mildly damaging, possibly causing long-term costs to airliners in engines with degraded efficiency unless they have expensive rebuilds, but not dangerous, not like the dense ash clouds which have shut down airliner engines in the past. He thinks it's 'Elf 'n Safety gorn mad . . . (not his choice of words).
"A woman on a bicycle has all the world before her where to choose; she can go where she will, no man hindering." The Type-Writer Girl, 1897

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #258 on: 18 April, 2010, 08:36:33 pm »
I'd rather an 'overreaction' which is speculation albeit perhaps informed, than a few airliners dropping out of the sky.   The very reason that air travel is so 'safe' is purely because risks are not taken.   


Chris S

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #259 on: 18 April, 2010, 08:43:27 pm »
It's a tricky one.

Maybe it's not dense enough for acute catastrophic failure like the BA 747 incident over Indonesia (which flew into the main volcanic plume as I understand it - a much worse proposition), but a few years/months from now when fan blades start failing and other effects surface, would it still seem like an overreaction?

After all - in the 1980s, we decided it was fine to feed sheep brains to cattle. Caution seems reasonable to me.

I have this in my mind:

<pilot_speak>
I'd rather be down here wishing I was up there, than up there wishing I was down here.
</pilot_speak>

Rig of Jarkness

  • An Englishman abroad
Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #260 on: 18 April, 2010, 09:02:37 pm »
I do hope that we're going to present Iceland with a hefty bill for all this.  I don't know, first they pinch all our fish and open fire on our trawlers, then they lose all of our savings, now this.  Some neighbours, eh ?  :(

Aero but not dynamic

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #261 on: 18 April, 2010, 09:05:13 pm »
I suspect that the actual density of the cloud at different points is poorly understood.  They know roughly  how much material is up there, and they know roughly the area that it's in, but they probably can't predict accurately which bits are dense, and which bits are less so.  If you hit an unusually dense bit, you are quite possibly buggered.

Also whilst I can see that minor damage to an engine would probably just mean earlier maintenance, how are you going to decide which engines need it?  There's quite possibly no easy method to quantify how much damage has been done to a given engine, so you would have to bring in every plane whose engine may have been exposed to too much ash, and I can't see the airlines appreciating that much.
Actually, it is rocket science.
 

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #262 on: 18 April, 2010, 09:15:09 pm »
Political pressure will quite soon ensure that new evidence, firther detailed consideration, type of ash etc etc is found that WILL allow most flights to resume. Certainly cannot continue a total shutdown beyond next weekend.

National interest will lean on NATs etc.

Too late for us - our hols cancelled. It was carefully timed for herself's birthday to include a sail boat trip on the Nile. We'll get a full refund, but not the point really.
Let right or wrong alone decide
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Regulator

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Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #263 on: 18 April, 2010, 09:19:02 pm »
The Gubbermint has suggested that the Navy may help with the repatriation of Brits stuck abroad...

Has anyone told them that the Navy doesn't actually really have any suitable ships left?  They've been asking for new ones for years but a certain Chancellor kept saying 'no' because he didn't think there was any need for large surface ships...  ::-)
Quote from: clarion
I completely agree with Reg.

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Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #264 on: 18 April, 2010, 09:37:28 pm »
Pictures have surfaced of turbine blades from Finnish air force F-18s which were in the air when the ash drifted over Finland. They're damaged, but not dangerously so. BUT - these were F404 military turbofans, with a bypass ratio of ca 0.35:1, meaning most of the air (& ash) going into them went through the core. A civil turbofan has a much higher bypass ratio, typically over 5:1, & most of the air - and even more the ash (I'm informed, I think reliably, that the ash, particularly the heavier particles, will tend to go into the bypass air rather than through the core) will therefore not go into the core. This is important: the main source of damage to jet engines from volcanic ash is it melting in the hot core, & being deposited on critical parts such as turbine blades. Ash in bypass air is relatively harmless.

My informant, a former Rolls-Royce engineer (proper one: Masters degree in it 'n all), thinks that the grounding is an overreaction. He doesn't believe the ash cloud is dense enough to be dangerous. Mildly damaging, possibly causing long-term costs to airliners in engines with degraded efficiency unless they have expensive rebuilds, but not dangerous, not like the dense ash clouds which have shut down airliner engines in the past. He thinks it's 'Elf 'n Safety gorn mad . . . (not his choice of words).

The above is possibly true (the bit about ash in the core is); note though that the BA flight that lost all four engines was a 747, I think, and would have flown RB211 engines with a bypass ratio above 4. This shows that such engines can still be affected if they fly through a dense cloud; hence the grounding, until more is known. A research flight flown over the WE has led to the onboard engineer to say that it was, in his professional opinion, potentially quite dangerous in places.

Servicing and overhauling an aeroengine is no mean feat; serious look into these may mean off-the-wing work and all the issues tied to this: impact on flights (grounding; there are only so many spare engines); need for testing following re-mount; costs etc.
Frenchie - Train à Grande Vitesse

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #265 on: 18 April, 2010, 09:43:39 pm »
Do people think that the flight bans are looking over-cautious?  One wonders if economic pressures with override any precautionary principles involving the ash danger.  Apparently some airlines have done test flights. 
Cycle and recycle.   SS Wilson

Chris S

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #266 on: 18 April, 2010, 09:48:40 pm »
You can't blame businesses for wanting this over as soon as possible - in many cases their very existence is on the line.

Bringing everything to a complete halt over "a risk" is hard to take when your business is haemorrhaging money every day.

andygates

  • Peroxide Viking
Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #267 on: 18 April, 2010, 10:04:01 pm »
*watches on as this plays out like every other precautionary everything, ever*
It takes blood and guts to be this cool but I'm still just a cliché.
OpenStreetMap UK & IRL Streetmap & Topo: ravenfamily.org/andyg/maps updates weekly.

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #268 on: 18 April, 2010, 10:11:10 pm »
*watches on as this plays out like every other precautionary everything, ever*

Mayor Larry Vaughan/

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Eccentrica Gallumbits

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Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #269 on: 18 April, 2010, 10:18:29 pm »
The Gubbermint has suggested that the Navy may help with the repatriation of Brits stuck abroad...

Has anyone told them that the Navy doesn't actually really have any suitable ships left?  They've been asking for new ones for years but a certain Chancellor kept saying 'no' because he didn't think there was any need for large surface ships...  ::-)
The Tartan Army chartered a submarine to get to Mexico in 1970 - maybe the Navy could borrow that.

My feminist marxist dialectic brings all the boys to the yard.


Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #270 on: 18 April, 2010, 10:54:05 pm »
Do people think that the flight bans are looking over-cautious?  One wonders if economic pressures with override any precautionary principles involving the ash danger.  Apparently some airlines have done test flights.  

Lufthansa has flown 10 aircrafts; AF has flown an A320 and more recently a 777. All went well. Lufthansa went a bit further, challenging the numerical model and the associated conclusions drawn by the British research centre. Switzerland has started its own tests. Whilst the French airspace South of a line Bordeaux-Nice is open in France, the Spanish airspace should be closed. Specialists do know that ash is bad; what they do not know is how bad the ash concentration at any given time and location is, and therefore the precaution principle governs.

France is now opening 9 civilian airports (and has offered to open 5 militaries) in the South and using trains and coaches to move people. Aircrafts have started to head "home" and new flights are scheduled from these points. I guess the UK could use Scotland; assuming the train services worked okay.
Frenchie - Train à Grande Vitesse

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #271 on: 18 April, 2010, 11:53:17 pm »
I'd rather an 'overreaction' which is speculation albeit perhaps informed, than a few airliners dropping out of the sky.   The very reason that air travel is so 'safe' is purely because risks are not taken.   

I had this discussion with Mrs Nutty this weekend, while we were laying on the grass picnicing in Hartfield Forest and watching the lack of air travel from Gatwick (other than the helicopter constantly circling us).

Clear blue skies and no sign of ash.  None had fallen on the car overnight either.



I'd rather a safety grounding than a flight path going down with the loss of plane after plane.

Yes it's a frustration for travellers stranded.  Yes it's a loss of economy/jobs for airlines & partners.  But it might have been me up there...

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #272 on: 19 April, 2010, 12:03:51 am »
The subsidies are not direct but they still boil down to a subsidy that other competing industries like the train companies and ferry companies do not benefit from.

The UK rail industry receives huge direct subsidies. train red diesel is low-rate VAT.
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Tourist Tony

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Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #273 on: 19 April, 2010, 03:50:39 am »
Duty, not VAT.

Re: Volcano Grounds 'Planes
« Reply #274 on: 19 April, 2010, 04:26:13 am »
My girlfriend and I have just returned to Germany from London, a day and a half later than planned. Thank god for the channel tunnel, and supportive parents. My girlfriend starts her exams in 3 hours!!!

We were lucky to get one of the last seats on the last train today. The eurostar website was a pain and it took several attempts to get it to work.

Eurostar to Brussels, then a local train to the German border and then picked up by her parents.