Volcano Grounds 'Planes

[mike]

Lufthansa have been talking up the chances of flying into the UK for a day or so, my boss was on standby for a flight at about noon which they just cancelled.  Seem to be a lot more positive about it than most, perhaps it's a Swiss thing..

[pcolbeck]

Lufthansa have been talking up the chances of flying into the UK for a day or so, my boss was on standby for a flight at about noon which they just cancelled.  Seem to be a lot more positive about it than most, perhaps it's a Swiss thing..

Err Lufthansa are the German national carrier not the Swiss.

[Greenbank]

There's a Lufthansa flight from San Francisco to Frankfurt that crossed the UK from near Preston to Cromer. 39,000 ft.

That's a reasonable indication that the upper UK airspace seems ok.

Doesn't mean there are passengers on it though.

[TimO]

39000 feet should be OK, all along the VAAC warnings have been saying there's nothing significant above FL350.  Of course, that's no use unless you're just transiting over the UK, and it's probably not allowed, since you're buggered big time if you have to descend in an emergency.

There are a few flights apparently in the northern UK.  Several of them are DLH (Lufthansa).

[ScumOfTheRoad]

DHL you say? Goody goody! I have some kit waiting on a loading dock in in the USA - maybe it will get to europe sooner than later.

[TimC]

Hmmmm.... NATS rolls back plans to reopen British airspace as there is another cloud on its way.

And the NERC / Met Office have been giving greater detail of the ash layers they've been finding.... and they're where they were predicted to be.  Seems the airlines' suggestions that the scientists were being 'purely theoretical' is blown out of the water...

It would seem that the current eruption is of lower intensity and contains far less ice than the earlier ones. The presence of ice is apparently critical in the propensity of the dust to cause damage at concentrations that aren't visible. It is likely that the resurgent plume can be treated as would that of any volcano not contained under an ice cap, which may make life a little simpler! However, we'll have to wait and see.

Reg, I rather resent your implication that the airlines play fast and loose with safety. It's no accident that flying is by far the safest mode of travel; we spend inordinate amounts of time, effort and money ensuring safety. Passengers' confidence is absolutely essential, or we don't have a business. But we know a great deal more about our machinery than politicians do, and we are not going to let them shut us down without attempting to make our case.

[Regulator]

Hmmmm.... NATS rolls back plans to reopen British airspace as there is another cloud on its way.

And the NERC / Met Office have been giving greater detail of the ash layers they've been finding.... and they're where they were predicted to be.  Seems the airlines' suggestions that the scientists were being 'purely theoretical' is blown out of the water...

It would seem that the current eruption is of lower intensity and contains far less ice than the earlier ones. The presence of ice is apparently critical in the propensity of the dust to cause damage at concentrations that aren't visible. It is likely that the resurgent plume can be treated as would that of any volcano not contained under an ice cap, which may make life a little simpler! However, we'll have to wait and see.

Reg, I rather resent your implication that the airlines play fast and loose with safety. It's no accident that flying is by far the safest mode of travel; we spend inordinate amounts of time, effort and money ensuring safety. Passengers' confidence is absolutely essential, or we don't have a business.

Tim

I didn't imply "...that the airlines play fast and loose with safety."  It is a fact that a number of airlines, including Lufthansa, Air France and Air Berlin have been challenging the science, saying that there are not the ash concentrations suggested.

The evidence is there that the ash concentrations exist.

But we know a great deal more about our machinery than politicians do, and we are not going to let them shut us down without attempting to make our case.

*Bzzzzzzzzz...* Straw man!  This is nothing to do with politicians.  The closure of air space has been undertaken by the various national aviation authorities - the aviation safety experts - not by politicians.

[Martin]

a 4 engined plane has just gone over Gatwick heading SW; I would guess about 20000 ft

[Chris S]

a 4 engined plane has just gone over Gatwick heading SW; I would guess about 20000 ft

Yebbut - were the engines running? 

[Tourist Tony]

A contrail heading West just North of Gatwick, plus some engine sounds from the sirport.....

[Martin]

a 4 engined plane has just gone over Gatwick heading SW; I would guess about 20000 ft

10000
80000
50000

[Jules]

Whilst I feel very sorry for all the disruption the volcano has caused....

... the joy and tranquillity of living under quiet skies in London W4 cannot be overstated .

+1 I  bought my house knowing it was under the approach to Heathrow 27L so the noise has never bothered me. The quiet is nice though

[Mr Larrington]

No planes in the sky, lovely sunny days, and Chris Moyles thousands of miles away. Or returning to normal. It's a poser, isn't it?

I wish I'd said that.

[bikenerd]

Two contrails seen over Oxford just now.  We were up on the roof taking coffee and everyone stopped talking and stared skywards.  Like the coming of the rapture.

[TimC]

*Bzzzzzzzzz...* Straw man!  This is nothing to do with politicians.  The closure of air space has been undertaken by the various national aviation authorities - the aviation safety experts - not by politicians.

Whatever, Reg. You know best.

[Regulator]

*Bzzzzzzzzz...* Straw man!  This is nothing to do with politicians.  The closure of air space has been undertaken by the various national aviation authorities - the aviation safety experts - not by politicians.

Whatever, Reg. You know best.

OK then Tim... which politicians are you suggesting are responsible for closing the air space?  

[LindaG]

Two contrails seen over Oxford just now.  We were up on the roof taking coffee and everyone stopped talking and stared skywards.  Like the coming of the rapture.

I was with you there. I stopped and pointed out of the office window  

We've regressed to the level of stone age man ...  

[Bledlow]

They may well be. I can't comment, as we have no twin-engined aeroplanes. Yet.

Aha! Now I know who you work for. I've been on your A340s, & I should be again in July & August (ash permitting), though we bought our tickets from ANA. Well, it says the flight will be on A346, & ANA is all Boeing. So there's no chance that Mrs Bs cousin the ANA pilot will be flying us.

Now all the leasing stuff makes sense . . . 

[TimO]

I saw the contrail going East to West across London, at a guess someone in Europe flying to the US, and staying above all the (potential) ash.  Presumably the cloud model is in thin enough bits now, that should someone need to descend (in an emergency), they can avoid the cloud.

(It doesn't look all that clear though...

)

[PaulF]

Flight radar has had a steady stream of Lufthansa and KLM flights heading to points West - US and Caribbean mostly.

[Martin]

Flight radar has had a steady stream of Lufthansa and KLM flights heading to points West - US and Caribbean mostly.

saw 2 earlier; apparently there is a narrow corridor though Sussex they are allowed to use

[TimC]

*Bzzzzzzzzz...* Straw man!  This is nothing to do with politicians.  The closure of air space has been undertaken by the various national aviation authorities - the aviation safety experts - not by politicians.

Whatever, Reg. You know best.

OK then Tim... which politicians are you suggesting are responsible for closing the air space?  

Reg, as you are probably aware - or can find out for yourself - the national airspaces were closed, as you say, by national CAAs (or equivalent) and/or met offices in accordance with an ancient ICAO Volcanic Ash procedure which had never been updated to accommodate the latest detection and measurement techniques. As that policy, quite ludicrously given that volcanic debris is constantly present in the atmosphere, states that there is no acceptable level of volcanic debris, there was no clear mechanism for rescinding, modifying or mitigating the airspace closures. At that point, Eurocontrol, representing all the affected national airspace regulators, passed the buck to Brussels - specifically Siim Kallas, the European Transport Commissioner. It was he who called the teleconference of Transport Ministers that was held yesterday, and who effectively assumed responsibility for the continuation or otherwise of airspace closures. The decisions about who flies and who doesn't are now in the hands of politicians, not airspace authorities. That is why the airlines are lobbying government(s), not NATS, Eurocontrol or any other airspace authority.

Edit. I should add that I've just come out of a root canal session with the dentist and I Am Not Happy, so don't give me any reaso to snap at you!!!*







*What that really means is: sorry if I'm a bit grumpy! 

[2_Flat_Erics]

Why do the airlines and governments not already have well rehearsed contingency plans for an airspace shutdown?

I can understand that before 9/11 most airlines and goverments would not have really thought about the posibility of a total shutdown of airspace over a large area.

After 9/11 the US shut down its airspace for a while. Following this it would seem sensible for all airlines and governments to put in place contingency plans to cope with a similar shutdown in the future.

It would not matter what the cause of the shutdown is (terrorism, volcanic ash, anything else we have not thought of yet). If plans had been in place then many of the problems with people getting home in the last few days could have been mitigated. I'm not sugesting for a minute that everything would have aotumatically gone smoothly but contingencies could have swung into action far more quickly. (Extra ferries, trains, coaches etc). Instead it has taken days to really get these things up and running.

[Tourist Tony]

The problem with contingency plans is cost. Just like last winter, when we need specialist items we don't have them, because (a) they cost money, (b) thou shalt not spend public money, and (c) the event happens so rarely that the expense would be seen as wasted---until it happens.

[Polar Bear]

As all modes of travel overseas are private concerns why should the government have a contingency plan to cater for that?   If your car breaks down how do you make that essential journey?   If anybody should have contingency plans it should be the private concerns involved.