[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[Pale Rider]

If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.

At the current rate it will be above 209

Er, at the current rate the new target will be the current rate - 208.5.

[toontra]

If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.

At the current rate it will be above 209

Er, at the current rate the new target will be the current rate - 208.5.

By the current rate i meant the rate over the last few weeks, which I think is a better indicator than the whole-year average (as I think you probably knew  ).

[Pale Rider]

If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.

At the current rate it will be above 209

Er, at the current rate the new target will be the current rate - 208.5.

By the current rate i meant the rate over the last few weeks, which I think is a better indicator than the whole-year average (as I think you probably knew  ).

Seems to me if you are trying to predict a 52 week average, a better guide would be what's happened in the preceding 49 weeks, rather than just the preceding few.

Having said that, there is no doubt Kurt has put on a bit of a spurt recently and I would back him to be able to maintain it.

Whatever, I suspect we are agreed the arithmetic is a big part of the endless fascination of the attempt.

[SoreTween]

At the current rate it will be above 209.  In fact 210 isn't out of the question.

Steve's target to beat Tommy is already 211.4.  To beat Kurt at an estimated 76,000 it is 215.7.

[Sergeant Pluck]

In my view, due to the weather, terrain, and choice of approach Steve has suffered immensely - arguably more than Kurt. The mental and physical strength that he has demonstrated is without equal in my view. I doubt if anyone in the UK would be able to equal this achievement, in the way that Steve has chosen to do it. In addition I have no doubt that many members of his team have worked extremely hard.

Heavy bike, heavy kit, crap food. Only the best of days (weather, traffic, road conditions) permit miles approaching what is needed. That’s been the case for months. Those who urge pressing onwards without change, what of his well-being?

[Mileater]

Sadly, it is not looking good for Steve. Adding in yesterday's 100.3 miles to jo's most recent total, Steve's average mileage as of yesterday, day 132, is 194.7 mpd. Assuming Kurt beats Godwin by 1000 miles, this means Steve would have to deliver 216.2 mpd for the next 233 days to beat Kurt. Even the *lesser* goal of beating Godwin by one mile on British soil is looking increasingly unlikely. That would require 211.9 mpd.

Where is his crew chief? Who is running this thing? Steve appears to have very little support. Maybe he does not want it. Or if he does, but there's no one to actually organize and lead volunteers. Regardless, it's a mistake. This can't be done audax-style. The crew chief is supposed to recruit, organize and lead support crew. I don't see any of this happening here. Meanwhile, lots of people appear to want to help. Sad.

[Exit Stage Left]

ESL, I'm raising a glass of "Suffolk Springer" in your general direction at the moment. Only a Southern Softie beer from Bury St. Edmunds, I'm afraid, but it is perfectly acceptable. Not had it before.

@LMT: at the start of the ride all one had to judge Kurt on was what looked very like a "Let's see what the other guy does and then go one better, 10 days behind". With 11 months of experience, and with Steve having had all the bad luck that he has, that is clearly not the case now, if it ever was, and has not been since April. Is it allowed to change one's opinion in the light of experience?

Wowbagger, I went to the University of Kent, and lived in Herne Bay on the other side of the estuary from you, and I drank Shepherd Neame, so I actually prefer Southern beer, especially as you get a full measure without all that froth.
I'd see myself as a participant observer in all this Audax and Time Trialling stuff. I realise that you can never be impartial when you're involved in a sub-culture. The early partiality was inevitable, and there were remarks about Kurt coming from a 'privileged' country.

The end game was always going to be different, and the niggling partiality might have continued if Steve hadn't had the accident. A key pivotal point for me was when Steve rode up to Hoppo's place early on, and put in a big day, presumably paced by Chris, that led to a run of short days. I interviewed Hoppo around that time, as he was shepherding his fiancée around a 200, when she had PBP aspirations. He was also doing early-season training for Ultra Marathons in the US. He said at that point that Steve would be doing some very big mileage days in the Summer.

The consensus on here was that this wasn't a race, and it didn't matter if Kurt got ahead. That feeling got entrenched post-accident, and then the de-coupling of the two efforts after the restart took the direct competition out of the equation.

[Charlie Boy]

Let's not forget that Steve has from April to August next year, peak months for audaxers and riders of his experience, to claw miles back. Yes, he's had some shit luck but he's also got the pedigree to pull it back.

[andrew531]

Hope so.

[Jaded]

I think that it is fair to say that the knockers on both sides have NOT been part of either Kurt's or Steve's respective teams but simply kibitzers, or whatever the terminology is in cycling!

And, I wish those bloody persistent knockers of Steve's gargantuan efforts would bugger off and crawl under a stone too.

+1

[Fidgetbuzz]

I think that it is fair to say that the knockers on both sides have NOT been part of either Kurt's or Steve's respective teams but simply kibitzers, or whatever the terminology is in cycling!

+1

Absolutely NOT true -- i was the money man -- i attended the start on 1st Jan --and for example  I put significant effort into Steves PBP .. organising ferries, hotels , support vehicle and team , collecting steves bike from MK , getting it across and thru registration without Steve being present. . I have refrained from being negative until now as I thought that it might disadvantage Steve -- and my very few posts have been factual and very carefully considered, and I remain very unhappy at the way donors have been treated

Coming back to the reality of the challenge for the 8+ months that i was part of the team -- there was never any team debate on the ways to maximise Steves chances of beating the record.

I have huge respect for Steve and his achievement  and the miles that he does crank out .. - BUT .. his approach at the moment  is not going to maximise his mileage . This is a far far bigger challenge than any of us understood at the beginning - steves personal prediction of what was his maximum is sadly wrong -- it is just not possible in the UK for him to do the miles using the present approach. Change the method -- and maybe he could do it .

I would be absolutely delighted if using the present approach he could do it -- i remain gob smacked at the determination to ride one legged round the Mk bowl  -- but the reality is this is a very amateur effort at cracking the record.

[LMT]

Interesting.

[Peter]

I hope I'm completely wrong, and I know Steve occasionally gives upbeat reports but am I the only one that worries about whether or not he might be riding himself to a breakdown, desperate not to disappoint himself or his supporters?  I would hate to think that the persistent GO STEVES make him feel he just can't listen to his body, if that's what he really should be doing.  I, for one, would think no less of Steve if he stopped now.

Jeremiah

[Wowbagger]

Arising out of Fidgetbuzz's post, I agree that what Steve has achieved has been absolutely amazing. What is more, he has done what? Over 60000 miles after suffering a broken ankle and a month (or more) in the way of debilitating stomach trouble? Tomsk and I had a conversation about Steve's chances of success about a fortnight into 2015 and we agreed that the only thing that would stop Steve would be injury. I suppose you can call illness a subset of injury, especially if it is induced by what he has been doing.

I think we have seen precious little of him riding at his best throughout the year. We have seen huge courage and determination - more than I think I have ever seen in any other sportsman - but we haven't seen him putting in the miles that he believes he is capable of. However, I think we have seen enough to realise that he hasn't put together sequences which, given where he is now, will overtake Tommy by August, nor whatever Kurt achieves by the end of his year.

I would be fully supportive of Steve taking a break, recovering from his illness and any lingering injuries he still has, having a rest and if he were so minded have another go with whatever approach he thinks appropriate. What I would hate would be for Steve to carry on for so long with what becomes an increasingly futile attempt that people take him less seriously next time round, should he make another attempt.

Edit: cross-post with Peter. Steve is a lovely chap and a marvellous cyclist, but I worry that he might be doing himself unnecessary damage.

[Frank9755]

Thanks, Fidgetbuzz, for explaining a bit more of the situation.  My views are also very similar to yours and those of other subsequent posters.

I think that Steve is on the verge of a great achievement, riding himself into fourth or fifth place on the all-time list, despite having had lots of time off with a broken ankle.  Over the last few days, I've firmly come round to the view that he would be best advised to leave it at that for now, stop riding on 31 Dec, and get back to normality.  At that point, he could also start the proper planning needed for a future attempt - if he still wants to have another go and, indeed, if he still wants to do any more cycling in the forseeable future after this year.

I am also concerned that Steve, with no outside counsel, could otherwise ride himself into a state of poor physical and mental health, to his long-term detriment.  From the outset, I felt that the end of the attempt - be it successful or not - would potentially be a difficult time for Steve (and raised that with FB as something we should all have in mind a year ago when he was working on setting it all up).  I also believe that those of us who have encouraged and supported him - financially (I speak as a sponsor) and by otherwise encouraging him to do this - owe him a duty of care by encouraging him to stop when it seems the wise course of action. 

[jamesld8]

Very wise and well thought out words Frank. Just seeing how progress for Steve has decreased over last few days, post on Strava about going into a deep sleep instead of an afternoon nap, very sadly suggests that he is very near his physical and mental limits.
I wish Steve all the very best on whatever he needs to do now, and just hope that he doesn't` completely grind himself down.

[JohnR]

I hope I'm completely wrong, and I know Steve occasionally gives upbeat reports but am I the only one that worries about whether or not he might be riding himself to a breakdown, desperate not to disappoint himself or his supporters?  I would hate to think that the persistent GO STEVES make him feel he just can't listen to his body, if that's what he really should be doing.  I, for one, would think no less of Steve if he stopped now.

Jeremiah

I've been thinking this for some time. Each picture of Steve I see I think he looks exhausted due to sleep deprivation. I fear for his health. The body cannot continue in this way indefinitely without kicking back. I agree with peter, he should stop now and recuperate over Christmas and re-think his strategy before re-starting the challenge. Either way I wish him well.

[toontra]

Back in July I posted this:

Let's hope the weight of expectation (his own as well as others) isn't pushing Steve to attempt more than he is able to handle, mentally and physically.  I hope there someone in the team that Steve trusts that would be able to call a halt if (heaven forbid) things start looking risky?

It has been pretty clear that Steve has been on the limit for the whole year (minus the accident recovery period). He must be mentally and physically frazzled. Who is now making the decisions about what is possible, sensible and indeed safe?

It's clear that one of Alicia's most important roles has been to look after Kurt's well-being, and says one of the hardest things has been making sure he is keeping healthy both in body and mind.  Left to his own devices things may have turned out very differently. Decisions about strategy are discussed on a daily basis and he trusts her opinion enough to pretty much follow her advice.  I'm worried that Steve doesn't have anyone fulfilling that role.

[Peter]

toontra, I hadn't seen that (I don't check this daily).

[andyoxon]

It would be great if Steve can maintain recovery enough to complete a 100 000 km cycled in a year - currently he's on 99 090 km (Strava)... 13 days to go.

[TimC]

Toontra, that's a very good point. In all the enthusiasm to urge Steve on, only Steve (it would seem) is in a position to say 'enough'. I hope he feels able to do so.

PB, and Jaded, I don't read any of this as knocking Steve. It's more a recognition that the record is slipping away from him and a concern that the reasons for that may be more than just bad luck. FB has described his misgivings about the attitude to benefactors, and the secrecy, and these factors suggest that a different, more open, approach might have garnered more, and more useful, support. However, at the end of the day it's Steve's choice how the attempt is made and run. I hope he's in sufficiently good shape to make sure it ends safely, whether or not it ends successfully.

[Jaded]

Hi Tim, I think you are probably right, many comments are not knocking Steve, but are showing concern. The trouble is that the comments (generally) are affected by the knockers though, sadly.

Whether he gets a nominal record or not, he is doing something that no one has ever done before, ride this huge distance in the current UK. If it was an easy, armchair considered activity then why are the other contenders all in different countries?

[TimC]

What he has achieved already is abso-bloody-lutely amazing and, even if he stopped today, it would stand as a testament to determination, guts and bloody-mindedness that would be very, very difficult to surpass. It would be great if he could make 100,000 km in the year, as Andy mentions above, but his health is the most important thing. I know he's been to see the doc from time to time, therefore he's not ignoring his health - so we have to trust that he's ok. I wish we had an insider's confirmation of that.

But, I agree with your main point - to achieve this record in modern UK is probably a lot more challenging than anyone - including Steve - thought. Doing it anywhere is mind-boggling, but the combination of weather (and it really hasn't been that bad by UK standards) and road conditions adds an extra degree of difficulty. I remain gobsmacked as to how much Steve has achieved.

[Polar Bear]

Do any of you think that all this negative talk doesn't have a negative effect on Steve?   How is it helping him at all?

[mattc]

I think that it is fair to say that the knockers on both sides have NOT been part of either Kurt's or Steve's respective teams but simply kibitzers, or whatever the terminology is in cycling!

And, I wish those bloody persistent knockers of Steve's gargantuan efforts would bugger off and crawl under a stone too.

+1

+1

Armchair experts, for the most part. I suspect many realise their physical/mental attributes look pretty pathetic compared to Steve's; so to massage their ego they resort to criticising his tactics.

[although FidgetBuzz should be recognised as the one honourable exception.
plus there are 1-or-two on here who also know enough to make informed criticisms; they know who they are, I hope. ]