Super-Twat

[Asterix, the former Gaul.]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61968/flu_pandemic_science_paper1.pdf[/url]


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Do you know what date that report was issued?  It mentions dates pre-2010 but nothing later I can find.

. Revealed: UK ministers were warned last year of risks of coronavirus pandemic

Whitehall sources concede that turning “plans on the page to real life” was always proving a challenge, but said that in some respects the Brexit planning had helped.

[Polar Bear]

And now it appears that the government has been following Cumming's rather nasty and ideological brand of SAGE advice ...

[citoyen]

You could imagine that there was discord in the meeting and as Cummings was present he chose this rather than rival suggestions. I find this unlikely.

That’s not the only possible scenario.

Cummings has no business being anywhere near Sage. If you don’t think there’s anything fishy about him even being present at their meetings, you are incredibly naive.

[Vernon]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61968/flu_pandemic_science_paper1.pdf[/url]


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Do you know what date that report was issued?  It mentions dates pre-2010 but nothing later I can find.

The end of the main body of the report is dated November 2007

[citoyen]

The end of the main body of the report is dated November 2007

Whereas this is from last year:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-uk-ministers-were-warned-last-year-of-risks-of-coronavirus-pandemic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

But hey, as long as we get Brexit done, that’s the most important thing, right?

[Asterix, the former Gaul.]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61968/flu_pandemic_science_paper1.pdf[/url]


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Do you know what date that report was issued?  It mentions dates pre-2010 but nothing later I can find.

. Revealed: UK ministers were warned last year of risks of coronavirus pandemic

Whitehall sources concede that turning “plans on the page to real life” was always proving a challenge, but said that in some respects the Brexit planning had helped.

I agree.

[Davef]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61968/flu_pandemic_science_paper1.pdf[/url]


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Do you know what date that report was issued?  It mentions dates pre-2010 but nothing later I can find.

. Revealed: UK ministers were warned last year of risks of coronavirus pandemic

Whitehall sources concede that turning “plans on the page to real life” was always proving a challenge, but said that in some respects the Brexit planning had helped.

I agree.

How long have countries been expecting an influenza pandemic ? Since 1918. The advice is updated regularly. The one I posted was from 2013 I think. The most recent was November 2018, but to say “ministers were warned last year” is misleading. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/756738/SPI-M_modelling_summary_final.pdf


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[citoyen]

You’re clutching at straws. There hasn’t been a pandemic on this scale since 1918, so the level of advice on preparedness and relevant action taken by governments over the last 100 years is a moot point. We’re talking about the current situation and the decisions made by the current government.

And what is clear is that they decided that the risk of a pandemic was low enough that they didn’t need to heed the advice and instead have focused their efforts on preparing for Brexit. You could say they’ve been unlucky, but this is the kind of scenario where you make your own luck to a large extent.

What is also clear is that they are interfering politically with supposedly independent bodies, and this may provide some insight into why they have set their priorities as they have.

Stop being an apologist for these criminals.

[jsabine]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61968/flu_pandemic_science_paper1.pdf[/url]


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Do you know what date that report was issued?  It mentions dates pre-2010 but nothing later I can find.

. Revealed: UK ministers were warned last year of risks of coronavirus pandemic

Whitehall sources concede that turning “plans on the page to real life” was always proving a challenge, but said that in some respects the Brexit planning had helped.

I agree.

How long have countries been expecting an influenza pandemic ? Since 1918. The advice is updated regularly. The one I posted was from 2013 I think.

As Vernon says up there, it's dated (on p63) as November 2007, so you think wrong. (The fact it's advice to Ed Balls and Rosie Winterton makes it clear it's before May 2010 in any case.)

The most recent was November 2018, but to say “ministers were warned last year” is misleading. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/756738/SPI-M_modelling_summary_final.pdf

I'm not quite sure why you think it's 'misleading' to suggest that a 2019 Cabinet Office risk assessment might constitute a warning to ministers.

Either they ignored it completely, or they read it and dismissed it (both of which would be a touch negligent), or they read it and set priorities which aren't currently looking terribly clever.

[Davef]

What scientific advice was ignored ? Blame the scientists, or the government or people who voted for brexit or even a malevolent god. This was expected to happen at some point. That does not mean you can stop it.


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[TimC]

You’re clutching at straws. There hasn’t been a pandemic on this scale since 1918, so the level of advice on preparedness and relevant action taken by governments over the last 100 years is a moot point. We’re talking about the current situation and the decisions made by the current government.

And what is clear is that they decided that the risk of a pandemic was low enough that they didn’t need to heed the advice and instead have focused their efforts on preparing for Brexit. You could say they’ve been unlucky, but this is the kind of scenario where you make your own luck to a large extent.

What is also clear is that they are interfering politically with supposedly independent bodies, and this may provide some insight into why they have set their priorities as they have.

Stop being an apologist for these criminals.

While not excusing the lack of preparedness, the statement that we haven't had a pandemic on this scale since 1918 is not correct. The pandemics of 1957/58 (H2N2) and 1968 (H3N2) both killed a million or more. The 1968 pandemic involved an effective (though not mandated) shutdown across industries and schools not dissimilar to what we're seeing now.

[citoyen]

Thanks, TimC, happy to stand corrected on that point.

[citoyen]

What scientific advice was ignored ? Blame the scientists, or the government or people who voted for brexit or even a malevolent god. This was expected to happen at some point. That does not mean you can stop it.


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But don’t hold the government in any way responsible for their own actions. Righto.

[Polar Bear]

And don't forget the 2016 readiness scenario showing just how unprepared we were.  And it appears to have got worse since then with training being shelved and stockpiles not renewed.

You then have to ask why the UK didn't follow the Track, Trace, Isolate advice and why sick oldies were pushed back into care homes regardless of the covid-19 contagion issues.

All a bit stinky from a very stinky cohort of ideological fascists imo.

[hatler]

I'm not sure you need to include the word 'ideological' in your post.

[Davef]

We did follow the test and trace until it escaped. It only works when number infected are in the hundreds, possibly in the thousands. You need to successfully track 70% of  the average 2500 contacts per infected person. Once beyond that it becomes impossible. When this is all investigated I think we will find there was a very early infection in the uk in January probably in the east of the country and so the efforts of tracing incoming people from wuhan was doomed as it was already here. Once the numbers are down in a few months time, with a tracking app and testing capacity, we can have another go.


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[Polar Bear]

Test, trace and isolate has been used very successfully by a small number of countries prepared to make the effort.  The key is to follow through on every single known case and then you can reduce the spread by identifying potential spreaders and testing and if necessary isolating them. 

Our government clearly decided on the pathetic herd immunity option simpky because they were too busy partying and holidaying.  They were also way too complacent with thee turd in chief openly shaking hands and being a bullish oaf.  Nearly cost him his life and has potentially cost thousands theirs.

[ian]

Thanks, TimC, happy to stand corrected on that point.

We still have an HIV pandemic. Estimates vary, but it's killed between 30-40 million people and still kills 700,000-800,000 a year.

[Regulator]

We did follow the test and trace until it escaped.

Actually, we didn't,  PHE did a partial test and trace process... and not very successfully.  They then abandoned it when 'herd immunity' became the policy.

We still don't have the infrastructure in place to do testing at scale - despite repeated offers from private sector labs, university labs, etc. 

[citoyen]

We still have an HIV pandemic. Estimates vary, but it's killed between 30-40 million people and still kills 700,000-800,000 a year.

OK, I obviously didn't think that comment through before posting.

I'm still enraged at our current government, because of what they're doing (or not doing) now, in relation to current advice, and the way they are interfering with supposedly independent scientific bodies.

Even that idiot David Davis can see that No 10 advisers sitting in on Sage meetings is entirely inappropriate.

[Davef]

We did follow the test and trace until it escaped.

Actually, we didn't,  PHE did a partial test and trace process... and not very successfully.  They then abandoned it when 'herd immunity' became the policy.

We still don't have the infrastructure in place to do testing at scale - despite repeated offers from private sector labs, university labs, etc.

Initially everyone coming from at risk area were quarantined (on the Wirral and in mk) but it was doomed to failure as it is highly likely as I said on Saturday it was already spreading in the uk in January. This is very likely the case in Italy too.

The move from suppression to mitigation and back to suppression were based on the scientific advice at the time.

The problem at the moment with testing is not the PCR testing itself it is the logistics of collecting the samples. This would not be helped by having more private sector or university labs. Incidentally the biggest testing facility is a private sector lab.


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[Regulator]

We did follow the test and trace until it escaped.

Actually, we didn't,  PHE did a partial test and trace process... and not very successfully.  They then abandoned it when 'herd immunity' became the policy.

We still don't have the infrastructure in place to do testing at scale - despite repeated offers from private sector labs, university labs, etc.

Initially everyone coming from at risk area were quarantined (on the Wirral and in mk) but it was doomed to failure as it is highly likely as I said on Saturday it was already spreading in the uk in January. This is very likely the case in Italy too.

You seem to be equating quarantining with tracking and tracing.  Quarantine is one aspect of tracking and tracing.

The move from suppression to mitigation and back to suppression were based on the scientific advice at the time.

We don’t know that as, unlike in other countries, the scientific advice the government has acted on hasn’t been published.  The government also took actions which were contrary to the established public advice from organisations such as the WHO. 

The problem at the moment with testing is not the PCR testing itself it is the logistics of collecting the samples. This would not be helped by having more private sector or university labs. Incidentally the biggest testing facility is a private sector lab.

Again, you’re cherry picking one aspect and presenting it as *the issue*.  Sampling is just one issue that is hampering the testing and tracking effort.   Another is a lack of capacity to test the samples, which has been amplified by a lack of engagement with providers of potential and decisions taken by PHE early on (such as centralising testing equipment). 

[Davef]

Professor Fergusson says “there are a number of observers at these meetings who, I have to say, have not interfered with the business of those meetings at all”.

Obviously our top academic modeller of pandemics might be a liar in which case we have other issues too.


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[Davef]

We did follow the test and trace until it escaped.

Actually, we didn't,  PHE did a partial test and trace process... and not very successfully.  They then abandoned it when 'herd immunity' became the policy.

We still don't have the infrastructure in place to do testing at scale - despite repeated offers from private sector labs, university labs, etc.

Initially everyone coming from at risk area were quarantined (on the Wirral and in mk) but it was doomed to failure as it is highly likely as I said on Saturday it was already spreading in the uk in January. This is very likely the case in Italy too.

You seem to be equating quarantining with tracking and tracing.  Quarantine is one aspect of tracking and tracing.

The move from suppression to mitigation and back to suppression were based on the scientific advice at the time.

We don’t know that as, unlike in other countries, the scientific advice the government has acted on hasn’t been published.  The government also took actions which were contrary to the established public advice from organisations such as the WHO. 

The problem at the moment with testing is not the PCR testing itself it is the logistics of collecting the samples. This would not be helped by having more private sector or university labs. Incidentally the biggest testing facility is a private sector lab.

Again, you’re cherry picking one aspect and presenting it as *the issue*.  Sampling is just one issue that is hampering the testing and tracking effort.   Another is a lack of capacity to test the samples, which has been amplified by a lack of engagement with providers of potential and decisions taken by PHE early on (such as centralising testing equipment).

I was not cherry picking. I was pointing out the the pcr testing capacity is not the problem any more. It was previously and I agree the small boats approach would have in the short term brought more capacity to test nhs staff etc but I believe the current policy of using labs with high capacity sample handling provides higher capacity now and in the future.


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[ian]

We still have an HIV pandemic. Estimates vary, but it's killed between 30-40 million people and still kills 700,000-800,000 a year.

OK, I obviously didn't think that comment through before posting.

I'm still enraged at our current government, because of what they're doing (or not doing) now, in relation to current advice, and the way they are interfering with supposedly independent scientific bodies.

Even that idiot David Davis can see that No 10 advisers sitting in on Sage meetings is entirely inappropriate.

It wasn't a jab at you, just generally that HIV seems to be the 'forgotten' pandemic.

I completely agreed that the presence of Cummings and any of his acolytes at these meetings is unlikely to be beneficial. But then I have a hard time figuring out what benefit he would bring to anything, his main skill seems to be self-promotion.