Yet Another Cycling Forum

General Category => Freewheeling => Racing => Topic started by: onb on 02 July, 2010, 12:49:10 pm

Title: Tour predictions thread
Post by: onb on 02 July, 2010, 12:49:10 pm
Cant see Bradley getting a top 3 spot


1) Contador
2)Schleck
3)Basso


Cav for green if he gets his head right


KOM  Maybe Basso
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: LEE on 02 July, 2010, 02:29:44 pm
I don't know who will win it but I really, really , really want Wiggo to do it.

What with the Track Cycling team, Nicole Cooke on the road, Cavendish in the sprints, Wiggo winning the tour would just about make us the top of the cycling tree.  How is Shanaze doing lately?

After the abject failure of the English football team it leaves a nice popularity gap for the cyclists to fill and further promote cycling as "not just for nerds" pastime.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: clarion on 02 July, 2010, 02:51:05 pm
Is there a bicycle race coming up? 

*reads Guardian sport pages* :(
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: giropaul on 02 July, 2010, 03:45:43 pm
Quote from: onb on 02 July, 2010, 12:49:10 pm
Cant see Bradley getting a top 3 spot


1) Contador
2)Schleck
3)Basso


Cav for green if he gets his head right


KOM  Maybe Basso

I'm not ruling Evans out - for most riders the rainbow jersey is a curse, but it seems to have had the opposite effect on him.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: The Seldom Killer on 02 July, 2010, 03:49:05 pm
1) Contador
2) Wiggins
3) Schleck

Cav to get four stages this year but fall just short of the green jersey owing to a penalty.
Schleck to get KOM
Armstrong to go on about how he isn't saying anything and then not say anything at all and upset a top ten contender.
Evans to be disqualified for sounding like a Vuvuzella.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 02 July, 2010, 04:20:22 pm
Contador to win but I'm optimistic about Wiggo's chances of a podium place. He did well in the Giro, and should do better in the TdF, which will be more suited to him - the Giro seemed to be very much designed for the specialist climbers.

Kloden, Leipheimer, Basso, Evans, Vino and Schleck will all be there or thereabouts, so yeah, I suppose Wiggo will have to beat some pretty big names to get on the podium. But I reckon he's good enough. It's partly a question of whether his team can give him the support he needs - Sky look pretty inexperienced compared to the likes of Radio Shack and Saxo Bank.

I don't reckon Lance will figure in the top 10 but he'll use his experience to help his team-mates get close.

Schleck is always the bridesmaid.

Evans doesn't have the team behind him.

Cav for green.

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Karla on 02 July, 2010, 04:39:03 pm
Quote from: LEE on 02 July, 2010, 02:29:44 pm
What with the Track Cycling team, Nicole Cooke on the road, Cavendish in the sprints, Wiggo winning the tour would just about make us the top of the cycling tree.  How is Shanaze doing lately?
...and Steve Peat winning the downhill world champs.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Gus on 02 July, 2010, 04:49:54 pm

Two riders will be thrown out for suspicious blood values
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on 02 July, 2010, 07:48:15 pm
Contador
Andy Schleck
Armstrong

Hushovd for green
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: David Martin on 02 July, 2010, 08:16:02 pm
Quote from: Charterhall on 02 July, 2010, 07:48:15 pm
Contador
Andy Schleck
Armstrong

Hushovd for green
And your predictions for this year?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Biff on 02 July, 2010, 08:22:19 pm
I predict that the ITV commentary will be yet another sickening Phil 'n Paul Lance Lovefest  where he 'digs deep into the suitcase of courage', especially in the TTs, 'the race against truth' (© Phiggett 2009).
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on 03 July, 2010, 07:49:37 am
Quote from: David Martin on 02 July, 2010, 08:16:02 pm
Quote from: Charterhall on 02 July, 2010, 07:48:15 pm
Contador
Andy Schleck
Armstrong

Hushovd for green
And your predictions for this year?

Yes, Mrs C pointed that out to me before I posted.   :)  The only one that I'm in 2 minds about is 3rd place where I think that Armstrong/Basso/Wiggins/Evans are all pretty even.  I went for Armstrong because of his single minded determination.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on 03 July, 2010, 07:50:59 am
Quote from: Biff on 02 July, 2010, 08:22:19 pm
I predict that the ITV commentary will be yet another sickening Phil 'n Paul Lance Lovefest 

?  But I thought that Paul isn't there this year ?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Barnsdale on 03 July, 2010, 10:07:01 am
Frankly Wiggo's remarks about his Garmin team last year lost me as a fan.  I'm sure that he made the right financial decision in going to Sky, but his fairly slim chances of winning the Tour will be slimmer with the relative inexperience of his current team (as a team that is) compared to Garmin, which is full of experienced riders, although few are top rank. 

Maybe he predicted what Garmin were going to do this year, i.e. become a sprinters support for Tyler Farrar.  Not his year against the Cav I think but he will push him hard.  Cav could get Green but will probably lose it mentally. 

So, Green: 1. Cav, 2. Farrar, 3. Hushovd, but that's probably wishful thinking and the order might be reversed.

Yellow: 1. Contador 2. Schleck 3. Evans 4. Wiggins

First +ve drugs test:  Better not go there...

KOM and white, I've no idea.  Anyone else got suggestions?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Nuncio on 03 July, 2010, 12:10:25 pm
Quote from: LEE on 02 July, 2010, 02:29:44 pm
What with the Track Cycling team, Nicole Cooke on the road, Cavendish in the sprints, Wiggo winning the tour would just about make us the top of the cycling tree.  How is Shanaze doing lately?
Don't know, but I think you should include Emma Pooley in your list.  2010 palmares:
    1st La Flèche Wallonne
    1st Grand Prix de Suisse TT
    1st Grand Prix Elsy Jacobs
    1st Overall Tour de l'Aude
    1st Overall Giro del Trentino
And she beat NC in the British Championships.

To bring this back on thread: Emma Pooley to win the Giro Donne. 

Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Biff on 03 July, 2010, 01:08:40 pm
Quote from: Charterhall on 03 July, 2010, 07:50:59 am
Quote from: Biff on 02 July, 2010, 08:22:19 pm
I predict that the ITV commentary will be yet another sickening Phil 'n Paul Lance Lovefest  

?  But I thought that Paul isn't there this year ?

Oh please let that be true.  He is by far the more cheesy of the two. Without him to feed off perhaps Phiggett will be less inane.


Edit:  AAAAAAAAARRRGGGGGHHH ! Mute on.

Edit2:: Apparently Sherwen actually said "first blood to Armstrong"   :facepalm:
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: teethgrinder on 04 July, 2010, 01:25:52 am
1) Contador. Looked very strong on the prologue and in control.
2) Basso. Good in the mountains, where I think it will count the most this year.
3)Wiggo. I think he's been concentrating on his climbing, but still won't have enough to beat Basso and I think Contador is out of reach for everyone.

Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on 04 July, 2010, 08:49:11 am
Quote from: Biff on 03 July, 2010, 01:08:40 pm
Edit:  AAAAAAAAARRRGGGGGHHH ! Mute on.

Obviously I was misinformed  :)

(Actually I'm quite happy to see the double act on stage again, it wouldn't be the same without them...)
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: eck on 04 July, 2010, 08:54:47 am
 :facepalm:
Now we'll have to put up with Paul droning on about so-and-so's "baisickle" and Phil fawning over "Laawnce".

Jeeze, I miss Duffers.  :demon:
There's a thought: Phil 'n' Paul vs Duffers 'n' Kelly.  Discuss.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on 04 July, 2010, 09:04:44 am
Phil & Paul win cos you get them for free, along with the considerable added bonus of Jill Douglas  :)
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: onb on 04 July, 2010, 02:03:50 pm
Shaun Kelly wins hands down ,as a cure for insomnia.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Dinamo on 04 July, 2010, 02:06:13 pm
Quote from: onb on 04 July, 2010, 02:03:50 pm
Shaun Kelly wins hands down ,as a cure for insomnia.

+1

doesn't he ever drone on............
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 04 July, 2010, 02:17:28 pm
Sean Kelly has a particularly monotonous tone to his voice, and it never varies, it's all delivered at exactly the same pitch. Plus his accent makes him hard to understand at times.

Which is all a shame because when you can follow what he's saying, and stay awake long enough to hear it, he has some brilliant insight into what's going on.

I wasn't so keen on Ned Boulting at first but he's grown on me. He's much better than Gary Haircut.

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: The Seldom Killer on 05 July, 2010, 10:40:28 am
Predictions for today.

Millar to have a punt for putting 20 seconds into Cancellara to get the Yellow Jersey although Martin might have similar ideas. Neither of them are proper GC contenders so they may be allowed out. The danger being that Wiggins might want to take some of his defecit on the top ten which will attract some attention. Somehow the Yellow is likely to change hands today.

One of the Schlecks will pick up early KOM points but I suspect won't go straight to the top of the board, this will be someone like Auge or Chavanel.

Cavendish to keep well to the back and hope that people forget about yesterday by the time stage 4 starts.

Mind you, it would be a bit of a laugh if a handful of British riders from various teams went at it early on and see if this confuses the pack.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 05 July, 2010, 10:55:27 am
Quote from: The Seldom killer on 05 July, 2010, 10:40:28 am
Millar to have a punt for putting 20 seconds into Cancellara to get the Yellow Jersey although Martin might have similar ideas.

Good call. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Millar went for it. These days, he reminds me of Sylvain Chavanel at his best, frequently to be seen at the front of the peloton, teeth gritted, driving it along and keeping the pace high. Really aggressive and great to watch.

Tony Martin is just one of the most exciting prospects in cycling at the moment. He's definitely a future TdF winner - maybe not this year, but I'm sure he fancies a taste of yellow...

Quote
Somehow the Yellow is likely to change hands today.

What odds on Geraint Thomas nicking it, eh? I don't think it's outside the realms of possibility.

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: The Seldom Killer on 05 July, 2010, 11:23:23 am
Good question but I think not. Thomas has a fair amount of history with Wiggins on the track and I think he may hold to his team loyalty. This is likely to put him sheltering Wiggins today who I suspect of most likely making a move tomorrow on the cobbles. (Not his typical form but remember, born in Ghent and depsite a big history on the tracks might have a bit of a hidden skill here to capitalise on the predicted carnage).
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 05 July, 2010, 02:53:06 pm
Quote from: citizen smudge on 05 July, 2010, 10:55:27 am
Sylvain Chavanel

Speak of the devil!

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Riggers on 05 July, 2010, 04:12:46 pm
Sounds wet and trecherous!!
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: onb on 05 July, 2010, 04:22:51 pm
Quote from: The Seldom killer on 05 July, 2010, 10:40:28 am


One of the Schlecks will pick up early KOM points but I suspect won't go straight to the top of the board, this will be someone like Auge or Chavanel.




Thats one hell of a prediction. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 05 July, 2010, 04:29:40 pm
And so's this one:
Quote from: The Seldom killer on 05 July, 2010, 10:40:28 am
Cavendish to keep well to the back

 ;D

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: teethgrinder on 05 July, 2010, 07:03:50 pm
Quote from: Barnsdale on 03 July, 2010, 10:07:01 am
Frankly Wiggo's remarks about his Garmin team last year lost me as a fan.  I'm sure that he made the right financial decision in going to Sky, but his fairly slim chances of winning the Tour will be slimmer with the relative inexperience of his current team (as a team that is) compared to Garmin, which is full of experienced riders, although few are top rank. 


I though that what Wiggo did was noble. I think that Team Sky are paving the way for Brittish cycling's future in the TDF. It could very well downgrade what Wiggo achieves in this tour but I think it will develop Brittish riders and help Brittish riders of the future to have more success.
Wiggo may get a bigger paycheck from Sky than he did before. But if he continued to race in a stronger team and had greater success, would he be better off financially than he will be after this tour with a lesser result?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Gus on 05 July, 2010, 07:19:56 pm
Forecast for stage 3 :

There will be crashes, Cav + A.Schleck will be in them.  :facepalm:

The Spanish teams will loose minutes and hate the pave's

Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Pip on 05 July, 2010, 08:34:02 pm
I forecast a creditable showing in the mountains by Charlie Wegelius, who rode extremely well in the Giro.
The way things are going, one of the GC contenders might end up with the green jersey.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 06 July, 2010, 01:11:36 pm
Quote from: onb on 05 July, 2010, 04:22:51 pm
Quote from: The Seldom killer on 05 July, 2010, 10:40:28 am


One of the Schlecks will pick up early KOM points but I suspect won't go straight to the top of the board, this will be someone like Auge or Chavanel.




Thats one hell of a prediction. :thumbsup:

(click to show/hide)

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: The Seldom Killer on 06 July, 2010, 02:29:06 pm
I wasn't that keen to touch today with a bargepole in terms of predictions. Certainly wouldn't have predicted yesterday's rolling finish and today is just too hard to guess where things will go.

However, I suspect that the finish will fox most well versed pundits predictions.

Tomorrow I have Hushovd trying to open up his scoring in a break and Cav chasing the stage win.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 07 July, 2010, 08:58:03 am
Stage 4: sprint finish, Garmin or Milram to disrupt the Columbia train enough to spoil it for Cav, Farrar to take the stage.

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Hot Flatus on 07 July, 2010, 09:16:45 am
Agree with that but not sure about Farrar with his injuries. Husholvd is on fire and Cav looks out of the game. He should have kept his gob shut last year as his boasting has motivated others.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 07 July, 2010, 10:58:34 am
Take your point about Farrar's injuries. Broken wrist, innit? That has to slow him down a bit.

Who else is there who can give Hushovd a genuine race? Probably no one. Petacchi maybe? I don't think Ciolek is up to it.

Maybe it's Boasson-Hagen's turn to show us what he's made of on the big stage?

d.

Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 July, 2010, 11:00:15 am
Saturday's stage looks interesting, Moyenne Montagne, somewhere where the likes of Thomas and Evans could expend some energy while other GC contenders keep their powder dry for the big mountains. Wiggins is under the radar to a certain extent. It looks like a good weekend's racing.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: mattc on 07 July, 2010, 11:06:08 am
Quote from: citizen smudge on 07 July, 2010, 10:58:34 am
Take your point about Farrar's injuries. Broken wrist, innit? That has to slow him down a bit.

Especially in a sprint!

Today's stage is so woosy it's designed for sprinters. There will be a lot of shagged/damaged riders in the peloton, so I guess it depends whose lead-out team is in the best shape. Or which sprinter doesn't need one ...
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 07 July, 2010, 11:10:22 am
Actually, it looks like Farrar has already ruled himself out...

Quote
Farrar said he hopes to get stronger as the week progresses but doubts he can contest for a win in Wednesday’s stage 4, which is expected to favor sprinters like himself. Prior to the race’s start, Farrar had designated stage 4 — a flat 153.5-kilometer journey from Cambrai to Reims — as one of the nine stages he thought he’d have a shot at winning.

“If I feel like I did today, no,” he said. “I can barely pull on the handle bars with my left hand.”

“I don’t know for sure if I can finish,” he added. “I don’t think I’ll challenge much in the next few days. But if I can get through the next few days and take the pain, then maybe it’s going to get better.”

A fractured wrist doesn't deter Farrar (http://www.wenatcheeworld.com/news/2010/jul/06/a-fractured-wrist-doesnt-deter-farrar/)

Quote from: mattc on 07 July, 2010, 11:06:08 am
Or which sprinter doesn't need one ...

That'll be Hushovd, then.

Mind you, Farrar aside, Garmin are generally in pretty bad shape so maybe I'm overestimating their ability to disrupt Columbia, who are generally in pretty good shape...

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Nuncio on 07 July, 2010, 11:46:41 am
Quote from: Flatus on 07 July, 2010, 09:16:45 am
Agree with that but not sure about Farrar with his injuries. Husholvd is on fire and Cav looks out of the game. He should have kept his gob shut last year as his boasting has motivated others.

I keep being reminded of that extended interview he gave after one of his stage wins last year.  After thanking his teammates, he was saying how much attention to detail he and the team made to the run in, to the extent that they knew whether to go left or right round the roundabouts, because sometimes it could gain or drop you 20 places.  So how come he/they approached that bend near the end of stage 1 as if it went straight on? I was almost squirming with embarrassment when Jill Douglas interviewed him about it.  His conclusion: “That’s bike racing”.

But as we’re on the predictions thread: Cav to win today.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: cyclone on 07 July, 2010, 11:58:31 am
Cav's got some way to go in the Points comp..... :-\  Looks as if Thor will do it again Farrar's wrist'll stop him completing the tour...
Mckewen today though....
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Riggers on 08 July, 2010, 04:27:42 pm
Well, well, who'd have thought it!
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 09 July, 2010, 05:05:37 pm
Sky are in an interesting position. The last two Tours have been enlivened by the way the Schlecks have been able to alternate their attacks in the mountains, as both were a danger in the GC. Can Sky do something similar with Wiggins and Thomas?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Tim on 12 July, 2010, 11:10:10 am
Saw these predictions a bit late for the early stages:

Blazin' Saddles - Yahoo! Eurosport (http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blog/blazin-saddles/article/470/)
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on 13 July, 2010, 07:11:11 am
What does Paul the octopus think ?  :)
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Adrian on 13 July, 2010, 07:19:48 am
He thinks that Armstrong will go on a big break today on the basis that the others won't bother to chase him now.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 13 July, 2010, 11:11:57 am
Vinokourov to win today's stage by breaking away on the final descent.

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Tewdric on 13 July, 2010, 04:39:56 pm
Hmmm.  Just the dopers left in the GC race then, do we think?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: gonzo on 13 July, 2010, 08:09:02 pm
Menchov's never been implicated in any doping scandal FWIW.[/Menchov fan boy]

edit - still reckon that Wiggo should have gone for the giro instead this year.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Gus on 13 July, 2010, 08:19:09 pm
predictions for next stage:

French riders riding like crazy all day, trying to get away from the peloton.
remember tomorrow it's July 14th.  ;D
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Mr Larrington on 14 July, 2010, 09:27:54 am
Chavanel to be heavily involved in any break; Menchov to fall off at least twice.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 14 July, 2010, 10:09:37 am
Voeckler for the stage win.

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Hot Flatus on 14 July, 2010, 12:01:46 pm
I think there will be a lot of tired legs. Several breaks full of French.  Armstrong packs ( :o)
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Dinamo on 14 July, 2010, 12:18:18 pm
Today's winner could  be Nicolas Vogondy of Bbox  ???
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 19 July, 2010, 04:08:22 pm
(click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on 22 June, 2011, 07:47:34 pm
It's that time of year again  :thumbsup:

1 Evans
2 Contador
3 A Schleck

Cav to win 4 stages and Green. 

Wiggins to be top 6
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: bobb on 22 June, 2011, 10:50:16 pm
God no. I hope Evans crashes out on the first stage. He has the most punchable face in the peloton entire world...
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: David Martin on 22 June, 2011, 11:18:30 pm
I think wiggins will do well as he is well on form right now. Evans also untill he has a bad day.
Basso was going like a rather lethargic snail, Andy Schelck is just weird. Most of the other GC riders are there or thereabouts but I can't see past COntador as the hot favourite.

I'd be crazy enough to go for
1. Contador
2. Schleck
3. Wiggo
4. Evans
5. Gesink

Basso will be well out of it.
Cunego likewise but will do well in the hills.
Rodriguez (Katusha) could be top ten.

..d
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 22 June, 2011, 11:25:45 pm
Having looked at the route, I'm not so sure about Cav for green any more. Even the "flat" stages have climbs to the finish line, with a couple of exceptions. I'll put my house on him winning on the Champs Elysee though.

Top three:
1.Contador
2.Wiggo
3.Rodriguez

Can't see beyond Contador for the overall win. Schleck hasn't shown any form in the build-up, though that probably means nothing, but I don't fancy his chances this year. Wiggo definitely has the potential to manage a podium spot. Who are the other contenders? Rodriguez, Cadel, Vino, Brajkovic, Gesink, Basso, Roche, Voeckler, Cunego, Chavanel... I don't see that Wiggo has anyone to fear among that lot. It's between Rodriguez and Cadel for third place for me and I like what I've seen of Rodriguez this year so I'll take a punt on him. Time trial could be his undoing though.

Which names have I missed?

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Karla on 22 June, 2011, 11:38:28 pm
1: Contador - I'd like Schleck to win but he's been a bit up and down lately.
2: Schleck - I still believe he'll pull something out of the bag.
3: Wiggo - Post Dauphine, I'm optimistic for Brad.
4: Cunego - Heck, why not?  There are a fair few hills and it could just be his year.
5: Evans - That's if he even gets here.  He'll look good in the first week and then have a bad day as soon as he sees a hill and/or pisses off his team.

Quote from: bobb on 22 June, 2011, 10:50:16 pm
God no. I hope Evans crashes out on the first stage. He has the most punchable face in the peloton entire world...
Is it just me or does he look like he's one of the marionettes from Thunderbirds?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 23 June, 2011, 12:00:14 am
Quote from: Mr Bunbury on 22 June, 2011, 11:38:28 pm
2: Schleck - I still believe he'll pull something out of the bag.

You're probably right. He seems to have a decent team behind him - Monfort and Feillu, and of course Frank, will be useful support in the mountains. Contador gets the benefit of the Sorensens this year though.

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on 23 June, 2011, 06:59:28 am
Quote from: Mr Bunbury on 22 June, 2011, 11:38:28 pm
Quote from: bobb on 22 June, 2011, 10:50:16 pm
God no. I hope Evans crashes out on the first stage. He has the most punchable face in the peloton entire world...
Is it just me or does he look like he's one of the marionettes from Thunderbirds?

Well spotted  :thumbsup:  Re could play in a remake, with Catherine Jenkins as Lady P.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: bobb on 23 June, 2011, 07:35:20 am
Quote from: citoyen on 22 June, 2011, 11:25:45 pm
Having looked at the route, I'm not so sure about Cav for green any more. Even the "flat" stages have climbs to the finish line, with a couple of exceptions. I'll put my house on him winning on the Champs Elysee though.

According to The Manx Mouth himself in this CN article (http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cavendish-on-best-form-for-two-years-ahead-of-tour-de-france) he's pretty up for it.

I think the points shake up is a good idea. Having loads of intermediate sprints and loads of points available on mountain stages (like you get in other tours) just turns green into yellow lite IMO. I think that despite saying his main priority is to win stages for the team again, he really wants green this year...
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: TheLurker on 23 June, 2011, 07:49:40 am
Quote from: clarion on 02 July, 2010, 02:51:05 pm
Is there a bicycle race coming up? 

*reads Guardian sport pages* :(
Do you mean the, "Ball Games" section of the Guardian?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: marcusjb on 23 June, 2011, 07:51:17 am
Quote from: bobb on 22 June, 2011, 10:50:16 pm
God no. I hope Evans crashes out on the first stage. He has the most punchable face in the peloton entire world...

Never read a more truthful statement. I'd hate to go through life so miserably as him.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: JT on 23 June, 2011, 08:25:51 am
Quote from: marcusjb on 23 June, 2011, 07:51:17 am
Quote from: bobb on 22 June, 2011, 10:50:16 pm
God no. I hope Evans crashes out on the first stage. He has the most punchable face in the peloton entire world...

Never read a more truthful statement. I'd hate to go through life so miserably as him.

I think he's misunderstood.

I chatted to him briefly at last year's Tour and he was really nice - much friendlier than most of the other riders (except the British ones who are all top blokes, inc. Cav). Plus he raced brilliantly during his year as World Champion.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: David Martin on 23 June, 2011, 08:59:08 am
Quote from: JT on 23 June, 2011, 08:25:51 am
Quote from: marcusjb on 23 June, 2011, 07:51:17 am
Quote from: bobb on 22 June, 2011, 10:50:16 pm
God no. I hope Evans crashes out on the first stage. He has the most punchable face in the peloton entire world...

Never read a more truthful statement. I'd hate to go through life so miserably as him.

I think he's misunderstood.

I chatted to him briefly at last year's Tour and he was really nice - much friendlier than most of the other riders (except the British ones who are all top blokes, inc. Cav). Plus he raced brilliantly during his year as World Champion.


Absolutely. He just has a really whiny voice that doesn't do his character justice. One of the best World Champions for many years.

..d
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: bobb on 23 June, 2011, 09:14:12 am
Maybe I'm too hard on him. The "Interview my helmet" incident was actually pretty funny...
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: clarion on 23 June, 2011, 09:33:51 am
I'll go out on a limb:

1. A Schleck
2. Contador
3. Rodriguez
4. Evans
5. Wiggo

Green will be with Cav for a while on the road, but he won't be wearing it in Paris.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 23 June, 2011, 09:48:52 am
Any predictions about the results sheet after the doping charges have worked their way through the system?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 23 June, 2011, 10:07:28 am
Quote from: LittleWheelsandBig on 23 June, 2011, 09:48:52 am
Any predictions about the results sheet after the doping charges have worked their way through the system?

As highest placed Frenchmen, one of Chavanel or Voeckler will ultimately be declared winner of this year's race. Probably no later than 2016.

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 23 June, 2011, 11:43:19 am
Hmm, "climbing domestique" Xabier Zandio (http://www.teamsky.com/profile/0,27291,17543_6638004,00.html) named in Team Sky ahead of the likes of Henderson, Pauwels, Lofkvist etc. Interesting.

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: mattc on 23 June, 2011, 01:31:17 pm
Quote from: David Martin on 23 June, 2011, 08:59:08 am
Quote from: JT on 23 June, 2011, 08:25:51 am
Quote from: marcusjb on 23 June, 2011, 07:51:17 am
Quote from: bobb on 22 June, 2011, 10:50:16 pm
God no. I hope Evans crashes out on the first stage. He has the most punchable face in the peloton entire world...

Never read a more truthful statement. I'd hate to go through life so miserably as him.

I think he's misunderstood.

I chatted to him briefly at last year's Tour and he was really nice - much friendlier than most of the other riders (except the British ones who are all top blokes, inc. Cav). Plus he raced brilliantly during his year as World Champion.


Absolutely. He just has a really whiny voice that doesn't do his character justice. One of the best World Champions for many years.

..d
Yup.

(But I reckon his face is most punchable when he's looking happy.)
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 23 June, 2011, 01:39:38 pm
Quote from: mattc on 23 June, 2011, 01:31:17 pm
(But I reckon his face is most punchable when he's looking happy.)

(http://i88.photobucket.com/albums/k170/smutchin/bingo-banana-splits.jpg)
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: David Martin on 23 June, 2011, 02:31:29 pm
Quote from: citoyen on 23 June, 2011, 01:39:38 pm
Quote from: mattc on 23 June, 2011, 01:31:17 pm
(But I reckon his face is most punchable when he's looking happy.)

(http://i88.photobucket.com/albums/k170/smutchin/bingo-banana-splits.jpg)
Bingo!
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Tewdric on 23 June, 2011, 10:10:32 pm
Is Adamski riding the Tour then?   ;D

Seriously, I think Wiggo is in with a podium chance.  

The real bummer would be if he came second to Contador, therfore winning the Tour, but unable to celebrate on the Champs D'Elysees and only crowned some months after the event.  

Second only to the even bummier bummer if he got pinged for doping.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: gonzo on 24 June, 2011, 06:54:03 pm
Cav may not be in top form, but who's really able to consistently challenge in the sprints? Hushovd doesn't appear to be in great form and no one else is has really shown dominance as far as I can tell?

I've not seen any details of the route this year. Could someone give me a quick summary? #TTs? # flat sprinters stages? Many big mountain finishes?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Tewdric on 24 June, 2011, 08:13:11 pm
Quote from: gonzo on 24 June, 2011, 06:54:03 pm
Cav may not be in top form, but who's really able to consistently challenge in the sprints? Hushovd doesn't appear to be in great form and no one else is has really shown dominance as far as I can tell?

I've not seen any details of the route this year. Could someone give me a quick summary? #TTs? # flat sprinters stages? Many big mountain finishes?

The Cyclingnews guide, with a resume of each stage,  is here:

Tour De France 2011: Stages & Route Maps | Cyclingnews.com (http://www.cyclingnews.com/tour-de-france/stages)
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Snakehips on 24 June, 2011, 08:32:06 pm
Quote from: gonzo on 24 June, 2011, 06:54:03 pm
Cav may not be in top form,

There was a piece on Bikeradar a couple of days ago in which he apparently claimed to be on his best form for two years.

Of course you can't necessarily believe all you read !
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: David Martin on 24 June, 2011, 08:36:33 pm
Quote from: Tewdric on 24 June, 2011, 08:13:11 pm
Quote from: gonzo on 24 June, 2011, 06:54:03 pm
Cav may not be in top form, but who's really able to consistently challenge in the sprints? Hushovd doesn't appear to be in great form and no one else is has really shown dominance as far as I can tell?

I've not seen any details of the route this year. Could someone give me a quick summary? #TTs? # flat sprinters stages? Many big mountain finishes?

The Cyclingnews guide, with a resume of each stage,  is here:

Tour De France 2011: Stages & Route Maps | Cyclingnews.com (http://www.cyclingnews.com/tour-de-france/stages)

Just looked at the last two mountain stages.  :o :o This will be an epic tour.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Nuncio on 24 June, 2011, 08:58:17 pm
The RealPeloton podcast (Boulting and Rendell) this week was just an unedited recording of the press conference Cav gave in London. He sounded even more confident than he usually does and is in a lot better shape than last year.

Quote from: gonzo on 24 June, 2011, 06:54:03 pm
I've not seen any details of the route this year. Could someone give me a quick summary? #TTs? # flat sprinters stages? Many big mountain finishes?

According to Cav : 6 probable bunch sprint finishes, but only 2 'pan flat'.  The other 4 have varying degrees of non-flatness in the last few kilometres but nothing to worry him too much.  He probably wasn't counting Stage 4 as a sprint stage because he said Gilbert was a nailed on cert for that one.

No prologue this year but a TTT as Stage 2.  (Cav says that, unlike Garmin and Sky, HTC do no specific TTT training.  All it needs is for him to 'take control'. In his 5 grand tour TTTs, HTC have won the 3 that Cav has taken control of, and not the two that he hasn't!) The long (40km) TT, the penultimate stage, is in Grenoble and is exactly the same as the Dauphine one this year where Wiggins rode well to come second to Tony Martin.

Two mountain top finishes in the Pyrenees and two in the Alps.  And a lot of other mountains as well (100th anniversary of the the Tour visiting the Alps this year).
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: gonzo on 24 June, 2011, 09:25:16 pm
Ta for the info nuncio, gives me confidence in my fantasy tour team!
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: David Martin on 24 June, 2011, 10:00:05 pm
What is the chance of Cav being the first brit to wear all three GT leaders jerseys (just missing a yellow) and all three GT sprint jerseys?
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 24 June, 2011, 10:21:19 pm
Hell yeah. Cav in yellow after stage 2 this year has to be regarded as a very real possibility. How exciting is that?

d.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Adrian on 24 June, 2011, 10:43:14 pm
I hope that I can recapture the excitement,
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Mr Larrington on 29 June, 2011, 11:34:53 am
The waving of a placard advertising Dirk Hoffman Motorhomes (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYEPjBzh0Bg&feature=youtu.be) will be a daily feature.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 30 June, 2011, 01:44:06 pm
Given that you get half points for the one intermediate sprint - just watch HTC or some other sprinters team  chase down the break half way through the first stage (and any other stage that has a steep hill at the finish but flat to the halfway point)

Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Nuncio on 30 June, 2011, 03:16:33 pm
That change may also affect the dynamic of the race in respect of breakaways on the flatter stages: they’re less likely to get enough of a lead which can’t be chased down by the intermediate sprint points. Unless there are days when the green-jersey-competing teams call a truce, we’re unlikely to see a small group gaining a large lead a la Chiapucci, Voeckler and, er, can’t think of any others.  Also, there’s a chance that this will favour those teams which are hoping for sprint stage wins but have no ambitions towards the green jersey: they can take it easy while Lampre, Garmin-Cervelo and HTC are chasing down breaks and forming trains for the intermediates.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: kcass on 30 June, 2011, 05:09:21 pm
I think it was in that press conference that Cavendish implied HTC wouln't be chasing down breaks for the intermediate points because winning the green jersey was all about minimising your losses to your rivals - ie there'd be no point them using up energy just to get 1 or 2 points more than a rider that sucked their wheel while they (HTC) did the chasing.

He could be bluffing of course but if Tony Martin is a GC rider now Cav may have one less rider for his train as well.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: David Martin on 30 June, 2011, 07:06:12 pm
You'll see HTC let a breakaway go when there is flat finish so that non-challengers can remove those points leaving Cav fresh enough for the finale, and Cav going for the intermediates on stages where he cannot realistically challenge for the win.
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: Panoramix on 30 June, 2011, 07:20:44 pm
I would put my money on Troussel winning this one.

Tour de France à la Voile (http://www.tourvoile.fr)

IGMC
Title: Re: Tour predictions thread
Post by: citoyen on 01 July, 2011, 11:39:35 am
Quote from: citoyen on 22 June, 2011, 11:25:45 pm
Top three:
1.Contador
2.Wiggo
3.Rodriguez

...which would be pretty amazing considering he's not even in the race.  :facepalm:

Katusha have gone for an all-Russian team, which means no Pozzato either. Surely that's leaving out their two best chances of a stage win? Odd decision.

d.