Author Topic: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 254137 times)

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #550 on: 11 December, 2015, 01:17:50 pm »
[I'm almost certain I posted this a few pages back, but anyway ...]

there are 2 obvious factors governing that calculation:
- how strong is the wind? (cos clearly if it was too fast to ride into AT ALL, there's no point in wasting time trying). and
- how much recovery can you get in the vehicle? (if its a long transfer, such as overnight, in a perfect team bus, with food, masseurs and comfy beds ... well again, its a no-brainer).

In the real world the decision will rarely be clear-cut.
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #551 on: 11 December, 2015, 03:08:59 pm »

I wouldn't rule out the over-compensation pattern you suggest, but remember also that the daily figures as logged on Strava are for 24 hour periods sliced at midnight. So a later ride can look like an under-achieving day followed by an over-achieving one that contains the tail end of the previous late night finish (this wouldn't apply if he was consistently riding at the same times of day, but we have seen some fluctuation in start and end times).

If you look at each period of seven days divided by seven he hasnt made consistent daily Godwins in some time.  His current shortfalls are large and even doing a Godwin the following day doesn't balance it back to two Godwins.

My experience and this year I have wound up chasing known numbers for AUK ladies is that unless you have a contingency fund of spare kms is that if you fall behind what you have nominated as either your daily or weekly distance it is very difficult to hit the number you are after.

I accept I'n not in Steve's league but like Steve my opportunities to collect kms is  limited not by 24 x 365 but by non work time and other commitments excluding turning the pedals.

Fidgetbuzz

  • L sp MOON. 1st R sp MARS . At X SO sp STARS
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #552 on: 11 December, 2015, 10:05:50 pm »
It might be inappropriate for me to come into this current thread as an ex team member -- and the thinking may have changed a little or even a lot over the last 3 months -- but my pennorth is as follows.

The financial support from individuals has been amazing -- and it is still continuing -- funds pass thru an account that I hold before reaching Steve.. it was left like that to avoid all standing orders having to be redirected. The team do not yet know how many of the standing orders will cease after 12 months or whether some, several , many or even lots will continue into 2016 - that will become clearer in early Feb 2016. However if Steve wished to use  " faster " bikes by buying them - or relocate to say South of France - then in my judgement the funds were sufficient to allow this, and i am unaware of any dramatic change in the use of cash.

My experience from very early on , up to the time I stepped down -- was very much that Steve decided what he wanted to do -- and that attempting to suggest alternatives that might have been overlooked or not even considered was seen as totally pointless and dismissed out of hand usually  --in fact I do not think  that  these ideas were even put to Steve for him to consider. Remember that for the team there was really no way to "chat" with him -- he was either on the bike, or off and eating, sleeping or updating mileage. Any team conversations, ideas or suggestions  had to be channelled thru the team leader -- to minimise the interference with Steves daily routine, and I think that the team leader was 100% behind Steve's personal approach believing that  external suggestions were never going to be accepted by Steve -- so forget them - in fact virtually  do not even bother to make them  .. as there is only one way to tackle this  ie ...Steve's way.

 Steve as far as i was able to judge was doing it his way -- and there was only this way to do it. No point in debating the rights or wrongs of this approach -- Steve is the bloke grinding out the miles that are just about imaginable to most of us for a few days .. but for  a year ,... well way beyond my comprehension of both the physical and mental demands.

In a sense the team was an irrelevancy -- as any ideas that might have helped .. if they conflicted with Steves fixed idea of the way he was going to crack the record .. were not even worth thinking about.

Understand this background which i suspect has not changed (but the diet change could indicate that i am wrong here  ) and you will realise that matters such as - relocate to france, faster road bikes, smaller supported drafting ""into the wind"" loops , vehicle transfers , back up hired vehicle  travelling with him -- -- from my knowledge -- just not going to happen.

But Steve ...  you and your local support at MK ..... still have my immense admiration for what you are attempting and how you are setting about it.

I can only hope that you succeed in your driven ambition.


I was an accountant until I discovered Audax !!

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #553 on: 12 December, 2015, 05:59:35 am »
Excellent and detailed posting. Thank you for compiling and sharing with us and for your enormous help managing and setting up the Financial side of things. It is reassuring to read that the funds are all in place for Steve to continue riding the challenge  'his way'.  :thumbsup:

Wowbagger

  • Stout dipper
    • Stuff mostly about weather
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #554 on: 12 December, 2015, 03:32:16 pm »
A quick look at the tracker indicates an overall moving speed for Steve as 16.3mph, but 15.8 for Kurt. I have no clue as to how it works that out.
Quote from: Dez
It doesn’t matter where you start. Just start.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #555 on: 12 December, 2015, 07:29:01 pm »
Hi Wow, I think that the Tracker average is wrong but not sure why.

Steve's moving average according to Strava is about 23.8 kph for 2015.

Kurt's moving average according to Strava is about 29 kph for 2015.

This tallies pretty well with my spreadsheet which shows the average of their daily average speeds.

Should someone attempt this challenge who has Kurts speed (29km/h) and spends as much time on the bike as Steve (1.75 hrs per day more than Kurt) then you could be looking at

29km/h x 1.5 hrs (I'll let them have a 15 min rest if they like  :) ) = 43.5 km/day , x 365 days would give an additional total of approx. 15,800 km (9,900 miles)

Add that to Kurts likely record total of approx. 76,000 miles and you are looking at a new record of 86,000 miles.






Martin

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #556 on: 12 December, 2015, 08:36:00 pm »
It might be inappropriate for me to come into this current thread as an ex team member -- and the thinking may have changed a little or even a lot over the last 3 months -- but my pennorth is as follows.


Thanks FB, it would be nice to hear from the team where our financial support is going, how much is required for the challenge and indeed if there is to be a charity to receive the surplus if there is one as promised,

because apart from your postings we have received ZIP

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #557 on: 12 December, 2015, 09:33:02 pm »
Excellent and detailed posting. Thank you for compiling and sharing with us and for your enormous help managing and setting up the Financial side of things. It is reassuring to read that the funds are all in place for Steve to continue riding the challenge  'his way'.  :thumbsup:
Call me a Jeremiah and all, but I think precisely the opposite: had I contributed financially to Steve's team's effort I would be expecting them to be working cohesively in an attempt to extract the very best performance possible.  Steve's ideals bear little resemblance to the way that Godwin attempted the record (motorised assistance for 5 months!), and bear virtually no resemblance to the record-holder-in-waiting's MO (a tight, communicative partnership exploiting whatever benefits they can extract.)  The one boundary that I, personally, would have reservations about crossing is that of the recumbent (ironically, though, Steve did that too!).

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure Steve's a splendid chap and all, but it all makes me care a little bit less about whether he's successful or not...  :(

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #558 on: 12 December, 2015, 10:53:07 pm »
I think that the fact that Steve wants to do it his way any not cut any legitimate corners or use any 'marginal gains' is credit to him. If he fails so be it. He tried. He's doing what he has probably done in audax for many a year. Kurt will probably exceed TG's record by about 1,000. Steve is likely to try and beat that by riding longer summer days.
Go Steve.

Wowbagger

  • Stout dipper
    • Stuff mostly about weather
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #559 on: 12 December, 2015, 11:02:51 pm »
No matter how determined, bloody-minded and athletic the protagonists, beating this record will inevitably involve a considerable slice of luck. Steve's luck for attempt 1 ran out on that fateful day in March. We have seen that even when he is riding well, he finds it very hard to maintain a sequence of >206 days for any length of time.

The fact is that Kurt's higher speed means he spends fewer hours in the saddle, has more recovery time and in that sense has a bit of slack that he can take up when needed. For that reason you could say that he needs less "luck" than Steve. However, he has had his fair share. He has been knocked off twice at least in his effort, and any sort of off involving a motor vehicle is likely to put you out of the game for a period. In that sense, Kurt has been lucky.

But the fact remains that Steve takes a lot more days than Kurt to build up a buffer and unless he can increase his speed significantly (and that, presumably, will mean increasing his heart rate) then his attempt will always be on a knife edge.
Quote from: Dez
It doesn’t matter where you start. Just start.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #560 on: 12 December, 2015, 11:41:41 pm »
Keep zee dosh rolling in from diys /eces  mart-in    most welcome
Jeremiah legs a good read
Wowbagger - excellent

Steve WILL do it his way whatever other views are suggested
 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #561 on: 13 December, 2015, 06:24:06 am »
Just to put you all right.
I will take whatever advantage I can.
I am not doing most of what is suggested because I don't think they will work and some could potentially be very damaging.
No ideas are new and all have been considered.
Motor transfers will most likely happen.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #562 on: 13 December, 2015, 06:29:10 am »
Excellent Steve and thanks for the message. Have a good day today  :thumbsup:

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #563 on: 13 December, 2015, 08:12:21 am »
Just to put you all right.
I will take whatever advantage I can.
I am not doing most of what is suggested because I don't think they will work and some could potentially be very damaging.
No ideas are new and all have been considered.
Motor transfers will most likely happen.
Well that settles that!

Thanks for the clarification Steve.
(what are we all going to argue about now?? )
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Martin

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #564 on: 13 December, 2015, 09:48:46 pm »
Keep zee dosh rolling in from diys /eces  mart-in    most welcome :

well as i'm not a diy org that might be tricky,

it's not just about keeping the dosh rolling in, it,s about getting some comms from Steve,s team rather than Steve who has better things to do, about where it,s all going and how productively that dosh is being put towards this serious world record attempt

just saying...


Wowbagger

  • Stout dipper
    • Stuff mostly about weather
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #565 on: 14 December, 2015, 10:47:46 am »
As a matter of interest, what was Godwin's average daily mileage after he passed the previous record in late October? I tried working it out from Jo's graph but couldn't do so in a way that convinced me that I had got it right.

It appears from the downturn in the TG line that he eased off a lot in November and December - hardly surprising for many reasons, not least of which were the wartime blackout. I was wondering what the mileage would have been had be kept up his pre-record-breaking daily average throughout the year.
Quote from: Dez
It doesn’t matter where you start. Just start.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #566 on: 14 December, 2015, 11:12:55 am »

Just to put you all right.
I will take whatever advantage I can.
I am not doing most of what is suggested because I don't think they will work and some could potentially be very damaging.
No ideas are new and all have been considered.
Motor transfers will most likely happen.

I guess that tells us that where we stand with our debating.  Steve will ride the record his way, full stop.

With 30,000km in sight by the end of next week for my 2015 year (ridden around a full time job) I'm not sure I agree with Steve.

I would also say that Steve is now on what could be termed 'the new Godwin' of 340km a day to the end of the restart to cover miles lost plus what Kurt will probably add to the record - by my reckoning this new daily average would equal the potential new record.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #567 on: 14 December, 2015, 12:14:10 pm »
I hope Steve is not disheartened by Kurts mileage.   I think this record has been in Steves mind for years and I could quite imagine he feels pissed off, losing it to Kurt.  If it was me, then no amount of people saying that Kurts got easier conditions, better support, etc would assuage me that my efforts are still what count.   I hope Steve is tougher mentally than me (I am sure he must be).   

Kurt will most likely get the mileage record.  The past few weeks of riding laps of a local park convince me more than ever its a different record than a UK attempt.  Fantastic effort, Kurt and team.  (wonders what he'll do after completing a year. that must be an odd thing)

Go Steve :thumbsup:  Focus on the days riding only. Crank the mileage up a wee bit, get the graph lines trending upwards.

Karla

  • car(e) free
    • Lost Byway - around the world by bike
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #568 on: 14 December, 2015, 12:21:50 pm »
What "UK attempt"?  The record has been held by six Brits, but also two Frenchmen and two Aussies, and is now being governed by the USAnian UMCA. 

It's a world record, so let's not be so parochial!

red marley

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #569 on: 14 December, 2015, 12:28:23 pm »
I took that to mean 'riding roads in the UK'. It is possible to recognise that given the constraints (e.g. weather, distance, traffic etc.) an attempt that is based in the UK requires a particular strategy that might not be so relevant in other places. Oz and the US also have (a different) set of constraints that might suggest different strategies.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #570 on: 14 December, 2015, 12:59:35 pm »
"A UK attempt" - I meant a UK based attempt.

Fidgetbuzz

  • L sp MOON. 1st R sp MARS . At X SO sp STARS
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #571 on: 14 December, 2015, 02:26:32 pm »
I will take whatever advantage I can.

When I was involved it was virtually impossible to speak to Steve, as he was so committed to riding that he had little time for anything else.. so that what might have been constructive thoughts were never able to be kicked around with him.

I still find it difficult to believe that the bikes he is riding are the best possible for the task in hand .. they maybe on bad days when he needs to carry kit .. but there are good weather days too ..so I would need some convincing to believe that bike choice is correct.  My impression was that before the huge wave of financial support was offered , these bikes were what he was offered for free -- so he and the team took them --then when it should have become at least a worth while topic of conversation.....    "" Hey we have enough cash to look at other ideas .. ie bikes , support vehicle etc etc ""  There was no way to discuss this with Steve directly - and no way to get a sensible discussion within the team.

So if Steves opening quote is now correct -- then it is a change in approach -- and maybe there are other areas that should be explored. AUK members and YACF members are  very supportive with cash and  would also be very likely to help with drafting, riding loops in the wind or round and round the MK bowl  .......  IF ONLY ..... this sort of support could be explored and harnessed.
I was an accountant until I discovered Audax !!

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #572 on: 14 December, 2015, 04:46:41 pm »
I've made offers via a current team member...sound of crickets followed
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Fidgetbuzz

  • L sp MOON. 1st R sp MARS . At X SO sp STARS
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #573 on: 14 December, 2015, 05:21:11 pm »
Too clever for me  -- crickets chirp ... but that does not seem relevant.
I was an accountant until I discovered Audax !!

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #574 on: 14 December, 2015, 05:39:51 pm »
I've made offers via a current team member...sound of crickets followed

Too clever for me  -- crickets chirp ... but that does not seem relevant.

I assume that following the silence that followed LWB's offer, the sound of the crickets became obvious.  Lots of discussion around the offer would have drowned-out the sound of the crickets.