[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[mattc]

But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year.

I'd suggest that that's the part of his strategy that could be improved.

This isn't an audax record, and he doesn't need to ride under audax conditions.

Jeez - what the heck has that got to do with my post?

Is there some sort of Pavlovian condition on this thread:

Must Post Something Negative About Steve's Strategy - Preferably Something Mentioned Eleventy Times Before.

??

I was hoping to pack my ranting about negaitivty away for Xmas, but it's like fecking Whack-a-Mole on here ...

[Kim]

But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year.

I'd suggest that that's the part of his strategy that could be improved.

This isn't an audax record, and he doesn't need to ride under audax conditions.

Jeez - what the heck has that got to do with my post?

You're saying he's been here before.  I'm saying he doesn't have to be here at all, but as far as any of us can tell that's how he chose to approach the record, and isn't set up for a different approach.

Is there some sort of Pavlovian condition on this thread:

Must Post Something Negative About Steve's Strategy - Preferably Something Mentioned Eleventy Times Before.

Well, in the absence of actual information, what else is this thread going to be?  And, as far as I can tell, it's what sports fans do when they talk about sport.

I must confess to not having read all 40 pages.

[Polar Bear]

Very sensible NOT to read all 40 pages Kim.   

[Polar Bear]

It's fair to say that the vast majority of understanding of the demands that this type of endeavour place upon body and mind is purely theoretical.   Except of course, the experts in this field just now are in fact Steve and Kurt.   

[Basil]

Ah, Whack-a-mole.  Isn't that what some people confuse with mushy peas?

[Greenbank]

On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.

Each day off the bike (now) means having to do more than a mile a day extra every day up until he finishes the second attempt in August 2016. A mile extra a day doesn't sound much but at this scale it's huge.

Anything more than 7 days off the bike (now) and, IMHO, this extra mileage burden becomes too much and he may as well start again completely which means the prospect of finishing in December 2016 (or even January 2017) which comes with the extra mental burden not least the physical challenge or going at this for nigh on 2 years.

It's a very tough decision to make and it all depends how quickly he thinks he will recover and be back to doing 210+ miles day in day out and how he can use what he has discovered in the last year to maximise his chances of success.

[mattc]

Well, in the absence of actual information, what else is this thread going to be?  And, as far as I can tell, it's what sports fans do when they talk about sport.

I say, let's not lose sight of the fundamentals here:

We are several levels up the evolutionary ladder from mere sports fans   

[Wowbagger]

Ah, Whack-a-mole.  Isn't that what some people confuse with mushy peas?

That was Mandelson - and mentioning him Godwinises the thread. Oh, hang on...

[mattc]

Ah, Whack-a-mole.  Isn't that what some people confuse with mushy peas?

no - that would be whackamol'ay.

Completely different.

[Kim]

On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.

Each day off the bike (now) means having to do more than a mile a day extra every day up until he finishes the second attempt in August 2016. A mile extra a day doesn't sound much but at this scale it's huge.

I was suggesting that he abandons the second attempt, completes the first, takes some time out and starts a third attempt later.

[Martin]

My opinion is that Steve will very soon have no chance of beating Kurt's record by August. He would have (again IMO) more chance if he squirrelled away the donations for a future attempt, I don't think any of his sponsors would disagree with that strategy if he chose to  follow it

Edit x post with Kim

[hellymedic]

989 posts and counting...

[Wobbly]

990 now

[Karla]

I don't know whether time off the bike would do Steve any good at all.

It would give him time to address strategy properly.  There aren't currently enough hours in the day for that.

But fair point about the mental side.

There is a POV that you need a few days recovery off the bike to think straight about strategy & other Big Stuff.

But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year. Less miles but possibly less sleep too due to a FULL-TIME JOB! So he MIGHT know himself better than we do. We don't know.

That's the reason why people are focussing mostly on strategy: we know that Steve is athletically capable of this record.  It's also a reason why many people are saddened to see it slipping out of his grasp. 

[Ben T]

Personally I think that people should stop saying that Steve should or must stop for his own good.   Unless you are inside his head and his body, unless you have up-to-date intimate detail of his thoughts and feelings, then it is only your place to speculate or offer opinion, just like sports pundits or political commentators.

I wasn't suggesting it out of concern for Steve's health - I trust he has that in hand - but simply at a strategy level.  It's clear that he has no hope of beating Kurt on the original attempt, which means that if he takes the record, it will be in August.  On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.

One advantage he does have, should he choose to make use of it, is that Kurt is (a) unlikely to beat Godwin's record by much, and more importantly, (b) is unlikely to try to defend it - and, come to that, neither (seriously) is anyone else. Might be worth considering - biding time and and all that.
If he regroups and piles resources into a future attempt, he basically steals the "10-day lag" advantage Kurt originally had back for himself.

[mattc]

I don't know whether time off the bike would do Steve any good at all.

It would give him time to address strategy properly.  There aren't currently enough hours in the day for that.

But fair point about the mental side.

There is a POV that you need a few days recovery off the bike to think straight about strategy & other Big Stuff.

But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year. Less miles but possibly less sleep too due to a FULL-TIME JOB! So he MIGHT know himself better than we do. We don't know.

EDIT: what I meant here is that Steve may be very experienced in thinking strategy thru during days-n-days of 14-15 hours of low-intensity riding. He may, right now, be confident that he has considered all the main options, and has no need for extra hours in the day to address strategy.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Steve started the year riding slowly and hasn't really got much faster (consistently) ever since. Taking a break, recovering properly and training for speed before a restart in Spring would get him back to cruising at 19 mph instead of the 15-16 mph that he stabilised on when he was fit. He can't do big daily miles at 15 mph because he runs out of hours, partially because he spends too many hours off the bike each day.

[Kim]

EDIT: what I meant here is that Steve may be very experienced in thinking strategy thru during days-n-days of 14-15 hours of low-intensity riding. He may, right now, be confident that he has considered all the main options, and has no need for extra hours in the day to address strategy.

I don't doubt that.  I'd query whether his idea of what's a reasonable option might differ from what's actually a reasonable option, given that it's all going through the filter of his mysterious team.


Anyway, we're nearly at #1000.  Let's talk about gibbons.

[mattc]

Gibbons? Tell me about this strange yet intriguing topic! I must have missed previous discussions °


° may contain a white lie

[Fidgetbuzz]

When I report to Idai on the s/o income for Dec and send the balance to steve's account - i shall ask him to take the time to read this thread . there is much on here not particularly relevant -- but i begin to pick up several strands of concern .. is Steve over committed to attempt 2- when it might be better to take a real break - and possibly get 100% raring to go for a 3rd and final attempt.  Why are the team so uncommunicative when supporters and donors are desperate for more info. Is there really any team advice and support or is Steve on his own.  I have also had queries about the finance position - in particular -- should attempt 2 be stopped at some time if it became obvious that the record was out of reach - would there be a surplus to go to charity

[Arry-R]

Happy Christmas all

[notlobgp14]

Regarding surplus funds.  I wouldn't consider the Record Attempt over until Steve were to be back at full fitness and discharged from Out Patients.  As far as I'm concerned he can spend my portion on proper food to rejuvenate himself.

[Jeff in Wales]

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/dec/25/steve-abraham-cycling-year-in-the-saddle-for-record-chaser

[jochta]

Post #1000. I doubt I will ever start another thread on here with that many replies!!

[flashpeddler]

I think Steve is simply amazing and a fantastic endurance athlete.  I believe Steve would have broken the record if it hadn't been for a selfish little scrote in Somerset.  Is it possible to recover from a bad break AND cycle 200+ miles a day for 20 months??  Surely, there's a point where the body says "enough".  Guess no one knows because no one's ever attempted it.  I fervently hope Steve doesn't risk any longer-term health issues by feeling pressurized to deliver for his supporters and sponsors.  I hold Steve in the highest regard and nothing will change that.  Ride safe one and all.