[LEL17] Rider Area

[Veloman]

So why bother having folk put start times and why not just randomly allocate times?
I have no doubt some folk will be a little miffed if they put a time that was clearly undersubscribed at the time of requesting, only to find they are subsequently bumped to another start time.
Fully realise the enormous workload and fully support all the work the LEL them are doing, but some will believe that going for a time with plenty of spaces would expect that time being allocated, but if the 'first come first' served is not a factor, and you could be changed from 0900 to 1600, then just have a lottery for start times.

[Chris N]

I think it makes no difference to me if I get bumped out of my chosen slot. I picked a late one, plan to stop early on day one and finish as late as I dare on the Friday. Being pushed to an earlier time just means I'll ride further on the Sunday.

[alfapete]

The website says:

"If a start time is oversubscribed, we will run a ballot for it. If you’re in a group and the group gets lucky, the entire group will get that start time.*
All unsuccessful riders will then be placed into a draw for the earliest available slot that still has spare places. We’ll then repeat the process until we have filled every slot and allocated everyone a start time."

That seems a fair system, can't see any reason to meddle with it

[javier]

It would be handy, therefore, to know exactly when the lock will be applied.

+1 to this.

I'd also add a request for a clarification on how exactly the ballot and re-assignment of places is going to work when that is decided.

I see in the web site (https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/) that "We have a system to make sure that if you’re in a group of 2, you have the same chance of getting your preferred start time as anyone else. For groups of three or more, the odds are less favourable, but only slightly so. Any group larger than six risks being split up or placed in an unpopular slot.". I personally would be interested in learning more about how less favourable are the chances if you enter in a group to decide whether it make sense to my group to split in groups of 2 or just keep it as a group of 6.

[Veloman]

Odds for a solo rider?

[Smeth]

Please don't announce the absolute lockout time or even the week for that matter. We've all got plenty of time to choose and choose again and decide if we want to play the lottery. Giving a time will just delay choices and cause loads of people to be poised over the mouse at 00.00.00 minus one second. These people will be in many time zones around the world. This has been admirably avoided til now. Late March is a long way off. Decide by sometime well beforehand. Help the orgs.

As far as teams - we have been told the chances are only very slightly reduced the bigger the team gets. Will it affect a teams decision to know if that's 3% or 4% and the mechanics of it? It's more important to choose a less oversubscribed slot than to split the team. at the moment a team of two has about a 40% chance of getting 0900 if the numbers were frozen now. This will get worse.
A team of three has a VERY slightly lesser chance but it's not that crucial. By choosing a later time the odds can be massively reduced. Right now 0915 has a 66% chance and 1015 about 90%.

By the way, for this propaganda I expect a choice of start time. 0900 please

[wilkyboy]

That seems a fair system, can't see any reason to meddle with it

I agree.

I'd also add a request for a clarification on how exactly the ballot and re-assignment of places is going to work when that is decided.

Hmm ... I reckon Alwyn + team should be left to determine the most-fair system — in their opinion — without being held to account for it.  My reasoning is this: if they declare up-front what the system will be then riders will game it — I am ALREADY gaming it by keeping my selection in a less-popular slot.  Everyone who fails to get their preferred slot will grumble.

Then again, if they DON'T declare what the system is then everyone is at the mercy of their whim and whimsy — most riders will get their preferred choice, but some will fail and will grumble.

They can't avoid the grumbling, so let them choose their preferred grumble.

In 2013 I selected 8am, because it slotted in well with riding the Prologue.  However, EVERYONE wanted the early slots, so the team — and this is NOT a grumble — decided to inconvenience EVERYONE by filling the slots from the earliest to "as soon as possible", and I got bumped from 8:00 to 9:15.  C'est la vie.  I had more time for breakfast, finished with a handful of minutes to spare, and I enjoyed the ride immensely!

Let them get on with it — their problems are hard enough without being held to public account for something they don't yet fully understand or have data for to make decisions against.  For my two-pennies, they don't get a chance to practice and optimise the process, it happens just once every four years, this is a difficult problem, even when they have the data in front of them then it will STILL be a hard problem — and the data won't be static until they lock the start-time choices. 

At the end of the day some riders WILL be inconvenienced by having to start 15, 30, 45 minutes or even an hour later than they had hoped for, but it's still just a [very long] bike ride, the distance does NOT get longer with a later start, the route will be the same, the controls will still be serving food, etc., etc.  Relax and enjoy!

[wilkyboy]

Giving a time will just delay choices and cause loads of people to be poised over the mouse at 00.00.00 minus one second.

Like buying something on eBay    

[Redlight]

  to what Wilkyboy says.  There's no perfect way to allocate start times, especially as rider numbers increase year on year. If I recall, PBP had a first-to-the-mouse system, which was fine if, like me, you happened to be on line use as the slots became available but was probably more challenging for those in other continents.  I'm amazed at how much flexibility the organisers have been able to build in to the system.  Of course, there will be some oversubscribed slots, but that's the way it goes.

Compared with where we were 8 years ago, this LEL is, to purloin a phrase, a finely-tuned machine - and, in this case, the wheels aren't likely to fall off at any moment.

[Fidgetbuzz]

At the end of the day some riders WILL be inconvenienced by having to start 15, 30, 45 minutes or even an hour later than they had hoped for, but it's still just a [very long] bike ride, the distance does NOT get longer with a later start, the route will be the same, the controls will still be serving food, etc., etc.  Relax and enjoy!

Potentially the unlucky 9.00 starters are already going to be kicked back to 11.15 at the earliest  .. and as more riders make their choices .( never mind Alwyns comment that the least oversubscribed might be reallocated first ). I would bet that will go out to 2.00pm. there are some fascinating dynamics here .. if i was a 9.00 start ,,.. do i pull out now and go for 11.30 .. or do  I expect quite a lot of my fellow starters to pull out so that my odds get better .. so I stick in .. or even keep an eye on it .. and opt back in  when i judge that I am prepared to take a 2 out 3 chance . Dont forget that the graph has the number of available places in total .. so  a lot of people have not indicated a choice yet

[Fidgetbuzz]

It would be handy, therefore, to know exactly when the lock will be applied.

+1 to this.

I'd also add a request for a clarification on how exactly the ballot and re-assignment of places is going to work when that is decided.

I see in the web site (https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/) that "We have a system to make sure that if you’re in a group of 2, you have the same chance of getting your preferred start time as anyone else. For groups of three or more, the odds are less favourable, but only slightly so. Any group larger than six risks being split up or placed in an unpopular slot.". I personally would be interested in learning more about how less favourable are the chances if you enter in a group to decide whether it make sense to my group to split in groups of 2 or just keep it as a group of 6.

Phil has already said that we are not telling you when the lock will be applied .. late march is all you will know .. and just make up your minds about your group .. unless you are all expecting to be on the time limit .. those with an earlier start ,,.. cam just wait for the rest of the group if it is that important to you.

[Phil W]

I will be tossing the lock coin from around 18th March, heads, tails, heads, tails...

[javier]

I will be tossing the lock coin from around 18th March, heads, tails, heads, tails...

This is completely clear for me now. Thanks for sharing it.

The reason I was asking for clarification on how the re-assignment of places is going to work and how group odds are managed was not to suggest one method or the other; whatever method is used by the organization will be fine by me; the last I want is to add more work to the organization. I just think that being clear on how the re-assignment will work will help rider to make better informed decisions. Let me try to illustrate it with an example.

If re-assignment of places works as I understand what is explained in the website (https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/) anyone in the 9:00 will have some chance on getting any start time from 11:15 to 16:00 (as of now, 11:15 is first slot with available places).

If re-assignment is done as least oversubscribed might be reallocated first, the earliest possible start for someone that does not get a place in the 9:00 group ballot is 15:15. So, as of today, such rider would have around 35% chance of getting 9:00 start and if he/she does not get a place in the 9:00 slot he/she will have 100% chance of getting 15:15 or later start time.

If you are a rider in the 11:00 slot, with the first method you still have a chance of getting a 16:00 start time. With the second method you start time won't be later than 11:30. These are two very different outcomes which I'd guess should influence how riders are/will select their requested slots.

Again, I'm not arguing the merits of any of these approaches (or any other for that matter), just saying that clarifying the approach that will be followed would help riders to make better informed decisions which, I hope, would lead to less unexpected surprises.

[frillipippi]

Disregarding for a moment the hour of the start time and focusing on the minutes, I see an interesting general pattern: *00 start times are the most favored: maybe because they're a more obvious choice, maybe because while riding it's easier to make calculations (how long have I been riding?) based on a *00 start time. At the moment, the only exception to this rule is 1100 that has less preferences than 1045 (but still more than 1115, and 1045 has more available places). On the other hand, *45 start times are in general the less favored, I figure some sort of psychological bias is underlying.
It'll be even more interesting when the last 400-500 riders will join in and make their choice, adding pressure to oversubscribed and nearly-oversubscribed groups: will the "as early as possible" pattern eventually prevail, or will minutes still have some influence?

[frillipippi]

Just another thing: if I summed them up correctly (I'm not sure, it's just red dots on a chart), there are currently 1475 available places, and 70 of them are in the invitation-only 0500 group. Potentially, all selectable groups might get oversubscribed... People eager to have control on their start time are going to enjoy a very, very interesting month from now on! And they should be very grateful to those that have decided not to make a choice!

[grams]

If re-assignment is done as least oversubscribed might be reallocated first, the earliest possible start for someone that does not get a place in the 9:00 group ballot is 15:15. So, as of today, such rider would have around 35% chance of getting 9:00 start and if he/she does not get a place in the 9:00 slot he/she will have 100% chance of getting 15:15 or later start time.

I don't think I agree with your working here. Focusing only on the 116h start times, there are currently 218 people who won't get their chosen morning slot, who can all be reallocated into the 230 places available in the 11:15 to 13:30 window; in whichever order TPTB choose. Unless the remaining ~300 people who haven't chosen a slot all pile on to the morning slots, I don't think that's going to change hugely.

(I'm assuming the "no preferred start time" people will be allocated last, all getting afternoon slots)

[LMT]

Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going...

[Redlight]

Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going...

'cos some of us are tight-fisted buggers. We've paid for 116 and a bit hours and we're gonna make sure we get to use them all.

[cygnet]

Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going...

cos the MR24 is the week before and I might be a bit broken

[frillipippi]

Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going...

If the 100hr option was available in the afternoon I'd be tempted, but my priority is passing by Castle Howard in the first light of day while still heading North. This is not possible with current 100hr start times, not in HTFU mode at least...

[frillipippi]

If re-assignment is done as least oversubscribed might be reallocated first, the earliest possible start for someone that does not get a place in the 9:00 group ballot is 15:15. So, as of today, such rider would have around 35% chance of getting 9:00 start and if he/she does not get a place in the 9:00 slot he/she will have 100% chance of getting 15:15 or later start time.

I don't think I agree with your working here. Focusing only on the 116h start times, there are currently 218 people who won't get their chosen morning slot, who can all be reallocated into the 230 places available in the 11:15 to 13:30 window; in whichever order TPTB choose. Unless the remaining ~300 people who haven't chosen a slot all pile on to the morning slots, I don't think that's going to change hugely.

(I'm assuming the "no preferred start time" people will be allocated last, all getting afternoon slots)

It has become much less than 218: if I got it right, somebody's just raised the number of available places... we'll have great fun in the next weeks!

[Fidgetbuzz]

To simplify our admin .. doing away with one out , one in, from now on .. we have taken 1650ish entries ( not totally clear as there are some medical queries around etc) . Our previous experience says that there will only be 1500 +/- on the start line.  As the drop outs will come during May .. when they still get a refund, we have to have 1650 slots now .. hence the recent uplift of the extra 150 places. From experience there will not be 1650 on the start line.

[rob]

Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going...

cos the MR24 is the week before and I might be a bit broken

Brave.    I'm going on holiday then.

[frillipippi]

To simplify our admin .. doing away with one out , one in, from now on .. we have taken 1650ish entries ( not totally clear as there are some medical queries around etc) . Our previous experience says that there will only be 1500 +/- on the start line.  As the drop outs will come during May .. when they still get a refund, we have to have 1650 slots now .. hence the recent uplift of the extra 150 places. From experience there will not be 1650 on the start line.

Thank you very much for the explanation.
I guess the best thing now is to assume that drop outs will be evenly spread through the groups. After the event, it'll be possible to check how close (or far...) from truth this hypothesis was.
I heartily hope that nobody is going to cancel just because of a wrong start time, at the same time I think it'll be interesting to investigate the statistical relationship between reallocation and drop outs.

[DrMekon]

Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going...

My thinking exactly. I think I can get around in 100hrs, and I don't want to get up too early, so 8am is the charm.