Author Topic: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers  (Read 80318 times)

Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #475 on: 22 July, 2011, 10:36:18 am »
Wasn't there a situation a few years ago when a break effectively eliminated the entire field including the yellow jersey?! Funnily enough they let them all stay in...
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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #476 on: 22 July, 2011, 10:39:01 am »
It was in the mid '90s, I think. I don't think the yellow was in the late arrivals but it was something like 75% of the field, inclusing all the star sprinters, and was relatively early in the race, so the rule was 'adjusted'. 
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citoyen

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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #477 on: 22 July, 2011, 10:53:04 am »
Andrew Schelck's attack yesterday was incredible. Reminded me of Floyd Landis.  ;)

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@carltonreid If Landis was on a "goddamn Harley" on stage 17 of the TdF in 2006, what motorbike was A Schleck on today, Mr Pound?

Maybe he borrowed Cancellara's motorbike?

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Voekler was obviously just hanging on and I can't see him being able to do it again athough I'd love to be proved wrong.

+1

d.
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citoyen

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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #478 on: 22 July, 2011, 10:54:48 am »
Hypothetically, if the winner of a stage like yesterday's was later found to be doping, since the cut-off time is based on the winner's finishing time, would the riders who finished after the cut-off time have a case for having their points reinstated?

d.
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JT

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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #479 on: 22 July, 2011, 10:57:30 am »
Hypothetically, if the winner of a stage like yesterday's was later found to be doping, since the cut-off time is based on the winner's finishing time, would the riders who finished after the cut-off time have a case for having their points reinstated?

d.

Morally or legally?

Ideally, the cut-off time should take into account the difficulty of the stage. It's obviously not working properly when over half the field is outside the cutoff.
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citoyen

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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #480 on: 22 July, 2011, 11:03:19 am »
Morally or legally?

Both, I suppose, but I was thinking legally.

Suppose Cav loses the green jersey by a handful of points, but it turns out the reason for him being docked those points was that the stage winner cheated... well, I'd like to hear what he had to say about that!

I still think he's going to win green by virtue of winning Sunday's stage, and I'm not saying I think Andy is doping, just pondering a hypothetical situation.

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Ideally, the cut-off time should take into account the difficulty of the stage. It's obviously not working properly when over half the field is outside the cutoff.

Quite. They weren't even very much outside the limit, just a few minutes. They have the discretion to waive the time limit and yesterday is a prime example of when they should have exercised that discretion.

d.
"The future's all yours, you lousy bicycles."

citoyen

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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #481 on: 22 July, 2011, 11:08:15 am »
Hopefully Cav will make it today (the stage is considerably shorter than yesterday) and not be affected by it all come Paris...

A shorter stage means the leaders will be riding faster, right? And since the cutoff time is still based on the same percentage of the winner's time, it may well be even harder to finish inside the limit today...

d.
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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #482 on: 22 July, 2011, 11:21:54 am »
Voeckler owes Cuddles many Big Drinks for that performance, not to mention even more Big Drinks to Rolland, who's stuck with him ever since he took the MJ.  I think it's highly unlikely that he'll stay in yellow after today but I hope like hell he manages to pull off a miracle.  Unless Clentador was playing a very dangerous game of bluff yesterday he's surely out of contention.  Frank to win today.
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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #483 on: 22 July, 2011, 11:24:00 am »
Hypothetically, if the winner of a stage like yesterday's was later found to be doping, since the cut-off time is based on the winner's finishing time, would the riders who finished after the cut-off time have a case for having their points reinstated?

d.

Morally or legally?

Ideally, the cut-off time should take into account the difficulty of the stage. It's obviously not working properly when over half the field is outside the cutoff.

I wonder if the thought running through the minds of some of yesterday's big group was: "If the group is as big as this, we can take our time, because they wouldn't dare kick us all out."

Reinstating them was a bit unfair on such as Rojas, who actually made the effort to finish inside the official cut. I can remember a similar thing a few years ago when Zabel bust a gut to get inside the time limit, only for a group which finished outside the cut-off to be reinstated. He made his feelings quite clear.

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A shorter stage means the leaders will be riding faster, right? And since the cutoff time is still based on the same percentage of the winner's time, it may well be even harder to finish inside the limit today...

The percentage today is more relaxed than yesterday. For a 30kph average speed by the stage winner, yesterday's cut-off would have been winner's time + 6%. For the same speed today, it would be winner's time plus 9%. I think they'll need it.

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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #484 on: 22 July, 2011, 11:24:51 am »
Ideally, the cut-off time should take into account the difficulty of the stage. It's obviously not working properly when over half the field is outside the cutoff.

It does, see http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/COURSE/docs/reglement.pdf (the second half is in English)
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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #485 on: 22 July, 2011, 11:29:04 am »
I'll wait for the dope testing to finish before congratulating the winner.  That could take a couple of years, given recent history.
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Karla

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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #486 on: 22 July, 2011, 11:29:51 am »
Frank to win today.

i.e. Unless Clentador is an even better sandbagger than Schlandy. 

Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #487 on: 22 July, 2011, 11:42:43 am »
Frank to win today.

i.e. Unless Clentador is an even better sandbagger than Schlandy.

You can stick a fork in Contador, he was done yesterday. If you have good condition, you don't bluff by yoy-yoing out the back of the group, and you certainly don't deliberate lose 30 seconds on a stage in order to lull your opponents into a false sense of security for the one. It's way too risky.

If you're good, you bluff by pretending that you are hanging on on the group by the skin of your teeth, then you hit them when they least expect it, rather like the way Armstrong got the drop on his rivals one year.
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citoyen

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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #488 on: 22 July, 2011, 12:30:49 pm »
The percentage today is more relaxed than yesterday. For a 30kph average speed by the stage winner, yesterday's cut-off would have been winner's time + 6%. For the same speed today, it would be winner's time plus 9%. I think they'll need it.

I've just done some maths and if (as reported) the Cav group finished only two minutes outside the time limit, they must have been given the +9% cutoff...

A.Schleck = 6h 07m 56s, +9% = 6h 41m 03s

Cav group = 6h 43m 36s
Rojas group = 6h 39m 13s

Based on a +6% cutoff, Rojas would have been outside the time limit too - by nine minutes.

I suspect they only enforced the rule to make the green jersey competition look like a contest.  ;)

No need, though - Cav would want to win in Paris even if he'd already got the green jersey mathematically out of reach of his rivals.

By the way, I wouldn't call under seven hours for >200km of mountainous terrain "taking their time"! My PB for a flat 200 is about two hours more than Cav took yesterday.

d.
"The future's all yours, you lousy bicycles."

Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #489 on: 22 July, 2011, 12:50:44 pm »
"If he stays in yellow today, I'll show my arse in Woolies window"

My local Woolies is now half Superdrug and half Waitrose.

Best of luck with the mooning.
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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #490 on: 22 July, 2011, 12:55:33 pm »
Andrew Schelck's attack yesterday was incredible. Reminded me of Floyd Landis.  ;)

Not really.

The clever bit was getting Montfort ahead to wait and guide Schleck (A) down to Briancon so that he didn't lose the time he'd gained, on the descent. The rest of the peloton didn't expect that - perhaps they were banking on him doing his usual threepenny-bit-turn performance on the way down.

Hence Schleck (A) could get to the Lautaret ahead of them and hold most of his advantage on the climb. Note that Cuddles and Ti-Blan (but not Beefeater Bertie) were catching him on the way up the Galibier - most unFloyd.
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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #491 on: 22 July, 2011, 12:57:17 pm »
I think today could be a bigger challenge for Cav than yesterday. It'll be another struggle to make the time limit.

There is marginally less climbing today but, yes, I'm worried for the lad.
The journey is always more important than the destination

Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #492 on: 22 July, 2011, 12:59:47 pm »
Hypothetically, if the winner of a stage like yesterday's was later found to be doping, since the cut-off time is based on the winner's finishing time, would the riders who finished after the cut-off time have a case for having their points reinstated?

d.

Morally or legally?

Ideally, the cut-off time should take into account the difficulty of the stage. It's obviously not working properly when over half the field is outside the cutoff.

Quite. I reckon the cut-off times are somewhat optimistic bearing in mind every team includes sprinters and general Big Lads as well as small goat-like creatures.
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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #493 on: 22 July, 2011, 01:01:44 pm »
Have any of today's papers used the headline "Six Mauled In Leopard Attack"?

If not, they should have.
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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #494 on: 22 July, 2011, 01:04:31 pm »
After checking the race rules/regulations (linked above - thanks  :thumbsup: ), the cutoff time is related to the stage difficulty and today's stage is classed as more difficult than yesterday so there's a longer cutoff.

So with that, the "rest day" tomorrow, and the very real prospect of winning the green jersey, I'd expect young Cav to be on time this afternoon.  :D


a great mind thinks alike

Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #495 on: 22 July, 2011, 01:05:30 pm »
Have any of today's papers used the headline "Six Mauled In Leopard Attack"?

If not, they should have.

But shirley only Bertie and Sanchez could be described as "mauled". Cuddles and Ti-Blan just had a couple of scratches that were healing by the time they'd finished.
The journey is always more important than the destination

Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #496 on: 22 July, 2011, 01:06:55 pm »
After checking the race rules/regulations (linked above - thanks  :thumbsup: ), the cutoff time is related to the stage difficulty and today's stage is classed as more difficult than yesterday so there's a longer cutoff.

Shorter ride, and two mountains rather than three? Sounds marginally less painful to me.
The journey is always more important than the destination

citoyen

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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #497 on: 22 July, 2011, 01:15:28 pm »
I've just had a look at the rules myself and JT's right - they use a different coefficient for shorter stages. And I now understand where Salvatore got the 6% figure from...

So, as Salvatore said, yesterday's stage started with a cutoff of +6% based on the winner averaging 30km/h, but because Andy rode an average 32-33km/h, that increases to 9%.

Today's stage starts with a cutoff of +9% based on a winning time of 30km/h. If Frank won today riding at an average of 33-34km/h, the cutoff would be +13%

d.
"The future's all yours, you lousy bicycles."

citoyen

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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #498 on: 22 July, 2011, 01:23:38 pm »
Shorter ride, and two mountains rather than three? Sounds marginally less painful to me.

The distinction is "étapes de grandes difficultés" and "étapes courtes de grandes difficultés" - today and stage 13 (Pau-Lourdes) are the latter. Stages 12, 14, 17 & 18 are the former.

d.
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Re: TdF 2011 general discussion thread - likely to contain spoilers
« Reply #499 on: 22 July, 2011, 02:02:38 pm »
Bertie attacks with 92 km to go. I think I'll be glued to this for next 3 hours or so.
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et avec John, excellent lecteur de road-book, on s'en est sortis sans erreur