re chain breakage; it seems to me that a few chains will actually fail in service simply 'because they are old' but it is also evident that a lot of chains that break do so because the manufacture is flawed (these chains usually break before they have a chance to wear much) or because the chain has seen horribly corrosive conditions, which encourages cracking.
Of the broken chains I have seen, there have been many more of the latter two sorts than the first sort. Of the 'old chains that have failed' most have shed rollers rather than broken.
It is as well to note that modern chains are built thinner in the side plates and this means they can only be built from stronger steels, with more rivet peening. These stronger steels are (by and large) liable to be less ductile, and more likely to be affected by environmental conditions (e.g. they are more likely to crack if they see winter road salt). The greater peening required to prevent rivets from pulling out can easily leave higher residual stresses in the chain side plates, again increasing the risk of cracking.
So one way or another I think that modern chains are perhaps more likely to break in service, but wear per se isn't necessarily a major factor.
I think that in view of modern chain reliability, it is an excellent idea to at least have a spare quicklink stashed about the bike somewhere or other; (I tried carrying them in the toolkit, but each of my bikes needs a different quicklink and they are easily lost/omitted from a toolkit). I presently favour stashing the spare quicklink in an accessible spot on the bike e.g.
- in the handlebar end
- under the headset top cap (A-head only)
- inside the stem (ditto)
- inside the seat pin.
Wrapped in a little plastic bag and/or bubble wrap they seem to come to no harm, don't rattle etc when so stashed.
In the event of broken chain (it is usually the outer side plates that fail) it is a question of using a chain tool (or just brute force, screwdriver etc) to remove the broken side plates so that the QL can be installed.
[BTW you can often jam a broken side plate into one of the gaps in a folded multitool; this will often allow enough leverage that it can be removed OK, even if you don't have chain tool.]
cheers