Yet Another Cycling Forum
General Category => Audax => Topic started by: Pale Rider on 18 December, 2015, 06:31:05 pm
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It looks all but certain Kurt will break Godwin's record, but I wonder when and by how much?
At current rate of progress he looks like breaking it around Jan 4 or 5, leaving him four or five days to add perhaps a thousand miles.
He could clearly afford a day or two off over Christmas and/or afford to stop a few days early.
My guess - no more than that - is he will do neither and probably hammer out some 250mile+ days to finish on a high
What do you think?
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This whole year has been rather like the second innings of an extended 1-day cricket match, the first innings having been played out by Tommy Godwin in 1939. I think it could be argued that bad light had some effect on play at the end.
I remember a match, the Benson & Hedges Final of 1983. I was there, and, as an Essex supporter, it really hurt.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/current/match/481970.html refers.
Whilst Gooch was at the wicket, the already modest run rate fell to something like 1.7 runs per over. Essex didn't make it. Failing light, nerves, brilliant application of psychological pressure by Phil Edmonds, Middlesex's slow left arm bowler, all took their toll and Essex fell 4 runs short.
Although I would expect that Kurt would get over the line with plenty to spare, there are no guarantees. There is still a lot that could go wrong and hold Kurt up. I sincerely hope it doesn't, and if all goes as well as it has been doing over the past 5 weeks, then he has a great chance. If all goes well, I would say some time on 5th January. I think we could see some very big days in the next 3 weeks.
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Alicia has said that Kurt is wearing down - although you wouldn't guess it from recent miles. He's a racer and nearing the bell lap.
I don't think he'll let up at all until he has passed Tommy; then he may ease up a little.
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Anyone doing this challenge is going to be utterly ruined by this stage, and only denial and PR will try to convince everyone otherwise.
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January 6th, 2016, 13:33 Florida time
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January 6th, 2016, 13:33 Florida time
Like it CET, colours nailed firmly to the mast.
There's a spread betting opportunity there, but I'm not the man to take it on.
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It looks all but certain Kurt will break Godwin's record, but I wonder when and by how much?
At current rate of progress he looks like breaking it around Jan 4 or 5, leaving him four or five days to add perhaps a thousand miles.
He could clearly afford a day or two off over Christmas and/or afford to stop a few days early.
If it was me - haha! - I'd give myself Christmas afternoon/evening off. Then f*cking nail it after that until my legs/head fell off.
But then I do like a proper Chrimbo blow-out :)
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Why not do a massive blinder (like 24hours) with all the mates out to pace him 30-31 december just to get over the line or really close to it then take the 1st off with 9 days left to put it out of reach
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Although I would expect that Kurt would get over the line with plenty to spare, there are no guarantees. There is still a lot that could go wrong and hold Kurt up. I sincerely hope it doesn't, and if all goes as well as it has been doing over the past 5 weeks, then he has a great chance. If all goes well, I would say some time on 5th January. I think we could see some very big days in the next 3 weeks.
Time to break out the tenterhooks.
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you'd have to be insane to take a day off between now and the goal, it simply won't happen, life is odd, anything could happen, likewise to take a day off afterwards with only 5 days to go, got to give Steve/Bruce the biggest target possible,
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What's all this talk of taking days off, or of easing up once he has the record? He's going to smash it all the way to the line. If he didn't have that sort of mentality, he wouldn't be doing this in the first place.
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Godwin has three records.
The classic calendar year record, the "year" record and the 100K record. I suspect Kurt will only take one of these .
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I can't work out whether beating TG's record by a couple of per cent is impressive (given modern USian traffic, surviving 75,000 miles without serious injury is good) or whether it's surprisingly low given modern equipment and sports science; look at how athletics records* or TdF average speeds** from the 1930s have been smashed, for comparison.
*2:25 to 2:02, fpr the marathon, 19% faster
** 40 km/h vs 28km/h (cripes! that's about four times the rider power) although the stages are shorter nowadays.
I reckon the annual record could be increased to 100,000 miles by a professional, given the appropriate training and a bit of luck with illness and injury. It was hard breaking Moser's forgotten/ignored hour record at first but, once it became popular and everyone started having a go at it, it increased by 10% fairly quickly. Standing on the shoulders of giants and all that.
The room for improvement is in the average speed, not in the daily riding time, which I don't think it's really practical to extend.
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A pro attempting it would need very good remuneration, and/or be at the end of his/her career. You will recall that Paris-Brest-Paris died as a race because of the damage done to a rider's prospects for the rest of the season, and that was only a few days.
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Tommy's record was exceptional, being so far ahead of other riders. Given the sports science limitations of Tommy's attempt, I'd suggest that Tommy was the stronger athlete* and that the "science" has helped Kurt make up the difference in speed-endurance ability. Albeit, being self funded, Kurt only appears to have dabbled in sports science such as aerodynamics and nutrition (energy drinks).
It would certainly be interesting to see a pro level athlete, supported by the resources that deliver the best of "sport science" and technology to the cause, take on the challenge. Simply to see what really is possible. I suspect we will never find out, as the level of commitment it needs is too great. Possibly the closest we would get is if someone links up with a sports science research team at a university like Loughborough, plus a small team of paid helpers. Then again, it would take some of the romantic rough edges out of the challenge.
Anyway - 4 January.
*(although I am still confused by the large miles Tommy racked up in the summer, which Tommy aficionados claim wasn't him being motor paced, but those miles seem anomalous if he wasn't)
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Given that it was common practice for cyclists to draft lorries into the '50s and lorries in the '30s were limited to a perfect pace for a cyclist covering miles, it is absurd to think that Tommy didn't sit behind motor vehicles.
By the way, Steve has recorded better 24hr TT distances than Tommy. I wasn't convinced that Steve should attempt Tommy's record until I knew that.
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A pro attempting it would need very good remuneration, and/or be at the end of his/her career. You will recall that Paris-Brest-Paris died as a race because of the damage done to a rider's prospects for the rest of the season, and that was only a few days.
A very good point. But it should be noted that veteran athletes tend to do well at endurance events. I'd be curious to see what a hard man like Malcolm Elliott could manage.
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Take a look at the tandem trike records of Arnold and Crimes set in 1954. They are still unbeatable as they were such a fine pair of athletes. Same goes for the End to End on an ordinary and the current men's tandem 100 mile TT record ridden at an average of 30mph.
Every so often a bike rider comes along who does something that so good its can either not be beaten or only by a small amount.
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"*(although I am still confused by the large miles Tommy racked up in the summer, which Tommy aficionados claim wasn't him being motor paced, but those miles seem anomalous if he wasn't)"
Everyone forgets that Tommy was engaged in a race within a race to take the Nicholson record first. He had two major impetuses (sic), firstly Bernard Bennett was catching him and possibly on target to overtake his mileage and get to the new record before him. Secondly, Raleigh and his coach Charley Davey were on his case as well making sure he was constantly pushing the envelope and hence demonstrating the superiority of their gear vs that of New Hudson. Many of Tommy's big days were witnessed by HH England of Cycling magazine and not once did he ever comment upon any drafting/motor pacing Godwin was doing. His 348 mile day case in point, it was documented in detail and Godwin's splits clearly show a series of 20+mph sprint hours followed by recovery. That is how he rode, hard then soft, then hard then soft, driven on by his coach. He was time triallist before and this would have been natural to him. Both Kurt and Steve have ridden differently, both of them ride at a more constant rate, Kurt somewhat faster. We find it hard to understand Godwin's year because we put everything within our frame of experience. We do not understand the concept of giving up EVERYTHING to take on this record. Steve and Kurt have not given up everything, a lot but not everything. Godwin was driven by greater forces and as a result suffered more to achieve his goal. This allowed him to somewhat coast to the 100k miles at a mere 200 per day average ;-), he also had a financial incentive to do it in 500 days exactly as I outline in my book.
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Take a look at the tandem trike records of Arnold and Grimes set in 1954. They are still unbeatable as they were such a fine pair of athletes. Same goes for the End to End on an ordinary and the current men's tandem 100 mile TT record ridden at an average of 30mph.
Every so often a bike rider comes along who does something that so good its can either not be beaten or only by a small amount.
Wilko & Lynne Taylor's mixed LEJOG record is doing pretty well too.
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Given that it was common practice for cyclists to draft lorries into the '50s and lorries in the '30s were limited to a perfect pace for a cyclist covering miles, it is absurd to think that Tommy didn't sit behind motor vehicles.
That's a very astute observation. Riding back and forth to Selsey, there are flat roads and lots of tractors limited to 26mph. They have been a blessing many times when I've headed back to my caravan with weary legs. If I can hear them coming, then I can sprint to get on the back and I am then able to keep up with minimum of effort in the big air pocket they create. A perfect example is when I went to watch the Olympic road race, with a 50 mile ride starting at 2.30am to get to my perfect spot a 6am - all the excitement of watching the race and then 60 miles into the wind back to the caravan. I stopped to raid my bonk rations, as I was struggling to keep going with 12 miles left, when I heard the tractor noise. I was able to keep up at 25- 26 mph for 8 miles without much effort (despite having pretty much 'hollow' legs at the time. So that would have been one advantage that Tommy would have had that modern riders don't.
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Given that it was common practice for cyclists to draft lorries into the '50s and lorries in the '30s were limited to a perfect pace for a cyclist covering miles, it is absurd to think that Tommy didn't sit behind motor vehicles.
That's a very astute observation.
Yup.
( I doubt I was the only one who assumed the alleged "motor pacing" was by drivers who were part of the Godwin team. I hadnt even considered the difference in traffic rules/conditions! )
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I think Citizenfishy has highlighted / confirmed that having a coach or crew chief, in particular with excellent working knowledge of how to ride plus close enough to the rider to know them very well, you will get a better performance. Without Alicia Kurt wouldn't be about to match Godwin. I think that Steve having no hands on mentor with the appropriate cycling knowledge and knowing him well enough is a major problem.
Also, using super long intervals sounds a very smart move. Not only would it give a good days mileage ensuring the miles are achieved as physically economically as possible, but would also constantly maintain the ability to go fast which is so very important in this ride.
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I remember those posts from Kurt and Alicia about missing him at junctions, not being available to pass up food or on hand to provide equipment changes.
I can only anticipate that those issues would be even more significant in the UK road network, which lacks the long highways of the US. To the extent that I view a "support crew" as not being the slam dunk for a UK attempt that some seem to hope.
There is also the vague consideration that Kurt is used to having support, from his endurance racing background. Steve has a different tradition that may make it more difficult to adapt to a supported approach. Not impossible though, provided he is comfortable with having to rely on other people (who may or may not be reliable 365/24/7).
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Steve liked using intensive support during 24hr TTs.
Maybe this part of the discussion should be moved to a different thread - Current thoughts, perhaps?
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Given that it was common practice for cyclists to draft lorries into the '50s and lorries in the '30s were limited to a perfect pace for a cyclist covering miles, it is absurd to think that Tommy didn't sit behind motor vehicles.
Given the toxic state of vehicle emissions in the 1930's [none of us were there mind, but I can't imagine they were better than the 1960's and beyond - god only knows they were dreadful then] it's also absurd to think that drafting a lorry was a pleasant experience...for any length of time. And we're talking long, long periods of time for it to be a significant factor in an endeavour like this, not just the odd mile or two.
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Ay, burt many of them had chimneys that sent the toxic fumes high into the air, so well over the head of the following cyclist. Furthermore, a cross-wind would take them in a completely different direction.
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Ay, burt many of them had chimneys that sent the toxic fumes high into the air, so well over the head of the following cyclist. Furthermore, a cross-wind would take them in a completely different direction.
High into the air? How fast were they travelling? Not very fast by all accounts. I still can't imagine it to be a particularly
easy passage for a cyclist for hours on end. And cross winds are very unpredictable. As we all know.
Sorry I still think his record to be almost unbelievable given the era.
Nothing that Steve and Kurt have done over the last 12 months has made me think otherwise.
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Take a look at the tandem trike records of Arnold and Grimes set in 1954. They are still unbeatable as they were such a fine pair of athletes.
It’s Crimes not Grimes and they are more commonly referred to in End to End circles and the Trike world as Crimes and Arnold (not Arnold and Crimes) in that order as that is how they rode – steerer and stoker.
They were, at the time and for the next four years, the fastest on ANY machine to do the End to End despite having spent 6 hours off the longbarrow tending to knee and stomach troubles.
Dave Keeler bettered their time in 1958 - but he was on a bike.
It was 12 years before a tandem bike bettered their time (Swinden and Withers in 1966).
Several attempts have been made on it - Kenny and Taylor got within 70 miles - but it remains unbroken.
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Given that it was common practice for cyclists to draft lorries into the '50s and lorries in the '30s were limited to a perfect pace for a cyclist covering miles, it is absurd to think that Tommy didn't sit behind motor vehicles.
Given the toxic state of vehicle emissions in the 1930's [none of us were there mind, but I can't imagine they were better than the 1960's and beyond - god only knows they were dreadful then] it's also absurd to think that drafting a lorry was a pleasant experience...for any length of time. And we're talking long, long periods of time for it to be a significant factor in an endeavour like this, not just the odd mile or two.
It's more a case of how you avoid doing it, given that lorries are moving at the speed that you are going, are slowing down on hills, and there's little other traffic due to petrol rationing. Diesel was used for heavy haulage in the main.
In those days there was no traffic on the roads only other lorries doing the same thing. I am not sure whether he was rationed for fuel but economy was always in his mind. He would not hammer up hill with a full load but change down without flogging the engine. Reading in one of his logbooks, I saw that Red petrol was 1/7½d
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ww2peopleswar/stories/40/a8811740.shtml
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Given that it was common practice for cyclists to draft lorries into the '50s and lorries in the '30s were limited to a perfect pace for a cyclist covering miles, it is absurd to think that Tommy didn't sit behind motor vehicles.
Given the toxic state of vehicle emissions in the 1930's [none of us were there mind, but I can't imagine they were better than the 1960's and beyond - god only knows they were dreadful then] it's also absurd to think that drafting a lorry was a pleasant experience...for any length of time. And we're talking long, long periods of time for it to be a significant factor in an endeavour like this, not just the odd mile or two.
Is that like the arguments we had on here a few years back about how audax routes shouldn't be rejected as underdistance if the underdistance bit involved riding on an A road, because nobody in their right mind would ride on an A road?
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Take a look at the tandem trike records of Arnold and Grimes set in 1954. They are still unbeatable as they were such a fine pair of athletes.
It’s Crimes not Grimes and they are more commonly referred to in End to End circles and the Trike world as Crimes and Arnold (not Arnold and Crimes) in that order as that is how they rode – steerer and stoker.
They were, at the time and for the next four years, the fastest on ANY machine to do the End to End despite having spent 6 hours off the longbarrow tending to knee and stomach troubles.
Dave Keeler bettered their time in 1958 - but he was on a bike.
It was 12 years before a tandem bike bettered their time (Swinden and Withers in 1966).
Several attempts have been made on it - Kenny and Taylor got within 70 miles - but it remains unbroken.
Apologies for the errors. It still proved that records set many decades ago can be of such a standard that modern day riders can't beat them or only increase them by a small amount.
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Given that it was common practice for cyclists to draft lorries into the '50s and lorries in the '30s were limited to a perfect pace for a cyclist covering miles, it is absurd to think that Tommy didn't sit behind motor vehicles.
Given the toxic state of vehicle emissions in the 1930's [none of us were there mind, but I can't imagine they were better than the 1960's and beyond - god only knows they were dreadful then] it's also absurd to think that drafting a lorry was a pleasant experience...for any length of time. And we're talking long, long periods of time for it to be a significant factor in an endeavour like this, not just the odd mile or two.
In my experience of drafting HGVs at speed on A roads - which will be a lot less extensive than TG's - you can very easily spot where the exhaust is and you position yourself so as not to be behind it!
A few weeks ago, I did the ride to Brighton with the vintage cars and did a fair bit of drafting. They were older than the ones on the road in the 1930s. It was certainly very smelly on the road with all that old fuel being burned, but it was no worse tucked in behind a car, avoiding its exhaust, than anywhere else.
I'd find it inconceivable that Tommy G would not have drafted trucks when he was riding. It wouldn't have been mentioned in dispatches as no-one would be expecting him to do otherwise! I expect the 20mph 'intervals' might have corresponded to when he got a tow vs when he didn't.
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Some of the older road records are a lot harder to beat because of modern day traffic conditions and city congestion.
I nearly said are impossible to beat but all records can be improved given a top rider, the right conditions and an element of luck.
Crimes and Arnold were a formidable pairing and also pretty useful on solo trikes.
john Arnold if he hadn't had a puncture would have won the Mersey 24 on his trike - which at the time would have been embarrassing as the event was technically a bicycle 24 at that time.
Since rectified.
in 1954 there wasn't an A30 that by-passed everything or a Forth road bridge.
The route was a lot longer than it is now.
And yet inspite of some of the best longbarrow riders having a go that 61 year old record it remains un broken.
One day someone will get it - that's what happens.
Tndem trike crews with the ability to do a ride of that magnitude are almost as rare as the machines themselves.
So it could take a while
This year the men's tandem record set in 1966 was broken by a crew who had never ridden a 24 together but had a wonderful tailwind.
So no record lasts for ever.
year record looks like it will be improved soon.
it's just a question of time before that improvement falls again.
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January 6th, 2016, 13:33 Florida time
Back on topic - this is the bar for quality of prediction!
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I'm going with January 7th, 16:42, local time.
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Put me down for 7pm local time, December 31st, 1969. ;)
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Put me down for 7pm local time, December 31st, 1969. ;)
Mmm, I don't think you are treating the question with the seriousness it deserves.
Bu at least we've got away from lorry fumes.
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Jan 7, 12:06 Local.
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Put me down for 7pm local time, December 31st, 1969. ;)
Mmm, I don't think you are treating the question with the seriousness it deserves.
Bu at least we've got away from lorry fumes.
There's going to be some cultural reference for that, because it's Kim, who is a Sorceress and Sooth-sayer non pareil.
Edit: ah, I think I've got it!