Sick of poor weather forecasting - what do you use ?

[GruB]

I downloaded the Accu Weather plug in for Firefox so on the footer I have small displays of now / today / tomorrow's weather.  Visual representations.  They are rarely correct.  For instance, Friday is 20c with a big rain cloud.  On the actual forecast it doesn't mention rain.  Metcheck doesn't mention rain.
I need to know what is happening as I ride to work and then come home again and a day is a long time in UK weather terms but what I want is something that is a bit more reliable.

Which weather sites do you use?

Metcheck has a 'busy' display so I find it hard to warm to, visually.  There must be others out there.  I like the idea of the plug in as it is easy to check etc.

Yes, I do look out the window and often step outside too 

[rogerzilla]

Metcheck is good for the next 24 hours.  Unless there is no wind, none of them are very good beyond that.

[TheLurker]

I use Auntie Beeb's website, it's accurate enough to tell me what kind of togs I'll need for the following day's ride and whether (ha ha) or not I'll get wet on the ride home.  Viz:

BBC - Weather Centre - 5 Day Forecast in Celsius for Brize Norton, United Kingdom and
BBC - Weather Centre - 24 Hour in Celsius for Brize Norton, United Kingdom

If you pick a location* that has an aerodrome/RAF base/airport it usually comes with 24 hour tab.  If there is a 24hr forecast take the wind speed indication with a pinch of salt, it usually seems to underestimate it, wind direction is usually about right. 


*Obviously you're going to pick one fairly close, say up to 15 miles or so,  of your chosen route.

[Wowbagger]

What surprised me is not so much how often they are wrong, but how often the different weather purveyors disagree with one another.

Surely there's only one set of satellites providing data to "experts"?

The bit that I find most annoying is the willingness for these people to issue Severe Weather Warnings when all that subsequently happens is that you get a few drops of gentle summer rain.

[mike]

the met office website is better than metcheck IMHO.  I think everyone uses the same source data but then put their own interpretation on it. 

[andygates]

..their own forecast models, in other words.  The Met Office is predicting a run of nice weather over the coming couple of weeks so I like that one right now.

[hatler]

Slight levels of 'own trumpet blowing' here, but using the Beeb's UK and Atlantic pressure charts, I reckon I can get a pretty good idea of likelihood of wind / rain for the next 24 hours. No idea at all how to work the temperature thing out though. For that I simply check the temp on the external thermometer we have, dress accordingly before I leave the house, and assume (it hasn't let me down yet) that it will be warmer when I come home.

[LEE]

Earlier this week the BBC weather site showed sun and/or cloudy sun all day for my post code. No mention of rain.

Their 'Current Conditions' showed 'Heavy Rain'

It actually never stopped raining heavily all day.

BBC are incredibly poor at forecasting the weather for my area. I just about trust them to get the current conditons correct but this is something with limited value as I have a window close by.

Metcheck seem a bit better but, the more I plan for Audaxes in advance, the more I realise they all just guess at anything more than 2 days in the future.

Note.  I read about a University that beat the Met Office at short-term forecasting.  When asked how they did it they replied "we just say that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's, when the weather changes then we get it wrong".

I think you could use that method for the whole week and beat the BBC.

[Ian H]

My mate at the Met Office reckons most people don't know how to read weather forecasts. He then says the way the Met put out forecasts makes them more difficult to interpret. So I ask him, and then it all dissolves into probabilities and likelihoods.

[Wendy]

My job relies on me knowing the weather, so I first check the BBC and Metcheck 24 hour forecasts:

BBC - Weather Centre - 24 Hour in Celsius for London City, United Kingdom
Metcheck.com - Global Weather Forecasts - Weather Forecast for London City - [Updated on 06 June 2008 at 11:00] - Weather Feeds - Live Data - Long Range Weather Forecasts

Then I check the rain radar, this is the most useful by far:
Met Office: British Isles: Rainfall radar

Followed by looking out the window and looking at these webcams:
London Webcams

[spen666]

World and Local UK Weather Forecast, Map and Report weather.co.uk

[keeks]

[
Then I check the rain radar, this is the most useful by far:
Met Office: British Isles: Rainfall radar


I agree and there is other very useful info on that site. However reading weather forecasts is an art in itself. You begin to realise that the forecasts are never fully accurate and at 5 days out you are only looking at a "possible maybe" scenario. I would say this the more you take note of forecasts and actual weather situations you build up your own experience as to what is and isn't going to happen.............and still get wet 

[mrcharly-YHT]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/ukweather.htm

crap website, accurate (and historical) information.

[PeteB99]

For what's happening outside now

Wind Map - Britain

Current Weather Conditions at Chester,  

The second one is of limited use if you don't live in Chester of course but your local uni might run something similar

For longer range I use the Met office or this one and then work it out myself


Mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa and geopotential 500 hPa
!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008041512!!/

[Really Ancien]

I have the Met office Weather Gadget running in Vista they do a Firefox one as well.

Damon.

[nitpickles]

For what's happening outside now

Wind Map - Britain

<snip>


Mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa and geopotential 500 hPa
!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008041512!!/

The former is truly excellent and takes its data direct from the US weather model - the GFS.

You can get graphic displays of the GFS model in pretty accurate detail for around 120 hrs out (it runs for 384 hours out but is weak) through this link:

For 18 hours from the latest model run (see top of screen left - date and time means model run) see: pressure; temperature; precipitation; surface level wind

Modify these urls to say Rmgfs21.gif to give 21 hours out; 24 to give 24 hours out etc. I'm sure someone could write a programme to display these somehow.

I find this way of viewing data the best - it gives you really accurate local detail, especially on the amount of rainfall expected and the potential fierceness of the wind.

[Spikey]

I think part of the problem is a lack of probabilistic information. Forecasters seam reluctant to admit that sometimes they havn't got a clue. Whats needed is some form of confidence estimate. For example, 90% probability of fine and dry with a slight risk of heavy shower, would be much better than the simplistic dry&fine or pssimsitic heavy showers forecast. There is also a tendency for forcasters to cover their backs by being pessimistic. The weather often turns out to be not as bad as predicted.

[vorsprung]

My approach is to look at the metoffice, metcheck etc to see what is predicted
This can be useful a day or so in advance
Sometimes the predicted weather arrives late of course

[orienteer]

My approach is to look at the metoffice, metcheck etc to see what is predicted
This can be useful a day or so in advance
Sometimes the predicted weather arrives late of course

Bit like Eric Morecambe's claim to be playing the right notes, but not necessarily in the right order!

[gonzo]

I like the rain risk (as a %) over the net 48 hours on metcheck.

[Cunobelin]

Use a leaf....... 100% accurate.

Put it outside.....

If it gets wet ....its raining
If it is dry...........its not raining

Now place it on a solid surface and close your eyes - count to 5 and re-open....

If it is still there when you look, it isn't windy
If you can't find the leaf its windy

What more do you need?

[TimO]

The second one is of limited use if you don't live in Chester of course but your local uni might run something similar

You mean like this.  Although the graphs aren't working at the moment (the instantaneous values on the left are correct though).  I need to get someone to kick it next week, but this is what happens when you get students to set things up and use Windoze.

I think the station is at the top of the Queens Tower.

[Adam]

I look at the BBC weather reports on the Breakfast News, both nationally & locally, which I've found do tend to give a pretty accurate indication of the weather for the next 48 hours.

Sometimes they do show the actual weather fronts which is useful, and as PeteB99 mentioned above, the European Centre for Weather forecasts web site which has the pressure maps, gives you a fair indication of the likely development of weather systems.  Also there's various aviation weather sites I look at, although for the average person, they won't tend to mean much, so they may not help you!

[Analog Kid]

Metcheck

[Noodley]

I am stunned that these charlatans make a goog living out of guess work.  IMO you'd be as well just thinking along the lines of "winter = cold, summer = less cold, UK = chance of rain and if not be happy"

Seriously, being paid for making up bullshit...