Author Topic: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 254388 times)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #450 on: 03 December, 2015, 09:09:16 pm »
So far I think what Steve has shown is that nobody can beat the Tommy Godwin record which was set in a specific time and place.

I agree with LMT.  If Steve wants the highest annual mileage record then get on and do it.  Flat roads, no wind, circuits of mind numbing boredom, etc but doable.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #451 on: 03 December, 2015, 09:20:32 pm »
I don't think he is out of it yet. If he has a decent winter I still think he could make up what he has lost, but it is looking a bit grim. As for starting again... that would mean effectively riding for two years with almost no break. He'd have to be pretty tough to do that. (but then again it seems that he is)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #452 on: 03 December, 2015, 09:46:48 pm »
I am sure he is tough enough, but whether he wants to,  is another matter. He has previously said he doesn't want the challenge to go on forever and to have an end in sight.

It must be totally demoralising to have had to restart due to the motorcyclist accident, but now it looks like the change of diet, mid challenge (why?) has combined with the winds to slow things down significantly.

Whilst winter was always accepted as a time when mileages might need to be compromised, the problem is budgeting for massively increased mileages later on. Even Spring and Summer are not without their bad weather days.


Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #453 on: 03 December, 2015, 09:58:49 pm »
Quote
As I pointed out back in February, using his home as a base, map out a couple of 40 mile loops, ride, home, eat and repeat.

i did my first 300 buy linking together 3x100km loops that centred on my house, don't think i was ever further than 50km from home, a lot mentally easier than being 200km from home in bad weather

Karla

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #454 on: 03 December, 2015, 10:37:58 pm »
It's worth remembering that lots of people have held this record, not just Godwin, and that they've come from several different countries.  By staying in Britain during this weather, Steve's making a rod for his own back - especially when I believe he has an invitation from someone down in the south of France.  It's a world record, so you can break it anywhere in the world.  The thing is, he's not going to break it at 100 miles a day.

red marley

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #455 on: 03 December, 2015, 11:32:57 pm »
Steve and his team need to think hard about what works for Steve and work from that and remember what record they are trying to break. FFS you are not trying to break the Tommy Godwin record - you are breaking the highest annual milage record which is recognised as being held by Tommy.

I don't think it is for us to tell Steve or the team what type of record they are trying to break. Perhaps his motivation for the endeavour could be different from yours. If you want to get all technical about the UMCA record, he will take that anyway because he will be the first in his age category, but that may not be what is continuing to drive him to ride though some very harsh conditions at the moment.

marcusjb

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #456 on: 03 December, 2015, 11:53:07 pm »
I accept that things are clearly very tough for Steve at the moment, however, let's get behind him and not write him off quite yet.

If I read it correctly, he is (not quite) as far below the line as Kurt has been. He is nowhere near as far below the line as Tommy Godwin got.

I accept the line is more than likely to move up, but, relatively speaking, not by an awful lot.

These next few weeks are critical. Go Steve!
Right! What's next?

Ooooh. That sounds like a daft idea.  I am in!

red marley

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #457 on: 03 December, 2015, 11:55:00 pm »
Lots of pessimism around at the moment, understandably given the recent problems Steve has faced. However it's worth remembering that nearly a year ago Steve faced the challenge of riding at around 206 miles per day for 12 months top and tailed by winter weather. Today he faces the challenge of 8 months of riding at around 209 miles per day with a month's less of winter and a summer finish with the chance of some long days of big miles. It's also worth remembering that he is running roughly the same deficit as Kurt was at this same point, 4 months into his challenge (around 750 miles below Godwin pace).

Wowbagger

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #458 on: 04 December, 2015, 12:02:51 am »
Jo talks sense, as ever. When this is all over I will be very interested to hear the reasons behind Steve's diet change, because before that happened he was plugging away brilliantly at the required mileage.

I sincerely hope that he can get it together in time to start increasing his miles up to 200mpd again around late January. After tomorrow, sunset only has 2 more minutes to lose before it starts getting later again on 14th December. Sunrise continues to get later well past the solstice (22/12/2015) right up to the end of the year before rising earlier again. As long as the temperatures stay above freezing, and the winds are not too strong, the only problem Steve will have is riding at night, and he has already said how much he enjoys this.
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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #459 on: 04 December, 2015, 07:32:04 am »
Quote
As I pointed out back in February, using his home as a base, map out a couple of 40 mile loops, ride, home, eat and repeat.

i did my first 300 buy linking together 3x100km loops that centred on my house, don't think i was ever further than 50km from home, a lot mentally easier than being 200km from home in bad weather
And how did Day2 of this plan work out for you?
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #460 on: 04 December, 2015, 08:26:20 am »
40-mile loops are too long.  Kurt is succeeding in this challenge by credit-card touring.  The most effective thing for Steve to implement right now would be a "hamster wheel" of 5 miles or so (perhaps New Bradwell - crossing the Gt Ouse - Haversham, or Little Linford - Black Horse - Newport Pagnell) so that he can ditch the panniers.  That alone would win him an extra 1 or 2 miles per hour.  Then, attracting people to ride with would help him in the windy conditions, raise his spirits, mean that he doesn't have to be the person who stops for food (someone else could sit out a lap and get the food for him), someone else can carry bidons, he could swap bikes if necessary(!), leave a depot of clothes or food (perhaps at a pub) on the circuit etc etc.  Without a step change in strategy, it's really hard to see this attempt lasting past Christmas. :-\

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #461 on: 04 December, 2015, 09:11:39 am »
Carrying panniers  :o

Looking at Kurt`s bike and cycledr both are riding stripped down very lightweight machines which will undoubtedly have a speed edge over a rather heavier (sturdier ) bike and in particular if extra luggage is being carried. From my own riding experience I find that my lighter bikes not only feel nicer (= psychological boost maybe) to ride but  are maybe 1 kph quicker. 1 kph quicker over duration of Steve`s attempt could be a 5000km difference !

So local shorter loops, particularly when weather is difficult, would seem to have a lot of plus points in that could ride a less laden even completely different setup lighter bike, call back at home for food , rest, engage with other riders taking turns on a loop. It might be a boring way to do it, but plus points at moment would IMHO seem to outweigh any negatives
....after the `tarte de pommes`, and  fortified by a couple of shots of limoncellos,  I flew up the Col de Bavella whilst thunderstorms rolled around the peaks above

red marley

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #462 on: 04 December, 2015, 09:21:53 am »
With all this good advice we are dispensing (11 months and 4 days since he started and several years after he started planning it), surely the record's now in the bag for Steve.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #463 on: 04 December, 2015, 10:33:02 am »
Yebbut, facetious posts aside, a great deal of that planning kind of went out of the window when it was realised that 280m+ days throughout the summer are not sustainable.  This was a lesson that had to be learnt, but, once learnt, Steve reined in his expectations of what can be achieved at best in the spring and summer months.  Team Steve need to consider other reactive measures (besides the vehicle transfers which haven't yet materialised) to save this attempt. Miles' attempt was unsuccessful mostly because he did not put to his use the intelligence garnered by Kurt's, Steve's, and his own successes and failures.

I'm worried that Steve's going for an early start today; his track record shows that significantly increased mileage on one day is usually nullified by tougher subsequent days and ends up as a deficit when seen over a three- or four-day period.  Kurt has had success with short circuits, with company, and with lightweight kit (all of which Team Steve could try), and with the recumbent and with warm weather (which are admittedly trickier to implement, or would take some considerable planning).  To paraphrase the Walker Brothers, Steve needs to make it easy on himself, especially as he is adjusting to his new diet (which I would not question if it were considered by experts to be essential to his long-term health).

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #464 on: 04 December, 2015, 10:46:01 am »
With all this good advice we are dispensing (11 months and 4 days since he started and several years after he started planning it), surely the record's now in the bag for Steve.

as Legs also refers---at start attempt Steve had thought thro`, over years , what he at time felt  was best approach; unfortunately there have been some setbacks and I for one see no harm in suggestions of perhaps a variance to original and well conceived plan A when it may not be going to Plan A. So hopefully good `advice` is received in a good spirit,
....after the `tarte de pommes`, and  fortified by a couple of shots of limoncellos,  I flew up the Col de Bavella whilst thunderstorms rolled around the peaks above

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #465 on: 04 December, 2015, 11:26:24 am »
Lots of pessimism around at the moment, understandably given the recent problems Steve has faced. However it's worth remembering that nearly a year ago Steve faced the challenge of riding at around 206 miles per day for 12 months top and tailed by winter weather. Today he faces the challenge of 8 months of riding at around 209 miles per day with a month's less of winter and a summer finish with the chance of some long days of big miles. It's also worth remembering that he is running roughly the same deficit as Kurt was at this same point, 4 months into his challenge (around 750 miles below Godwin pace).

All good points, and yes, there is plenty of time to make up some distance, but every day I am willing the ever-steepening downward curve on your excellent visualisation to start flattening out and start to curve back up, but we each day I check we aren't there yet... It feels concerning seeing the trajectory at the moment.  Really hope the new diet works out in the end!

If it was me attempting this (hahaha!) then I think I'd be tempted to take a leaf out of Kurt's book, and find a nice flat sheltered loop and do the hamster wheel with some company, even if it's just once a week. Perhaps it would help at this point, in terms of mileage total and perhaps psychologically too. I know Steve is keen to stick to the spirit of TG's record though, and I'm sure there are plenty of other good reasons that this isn't the right approach for him.

zigzag

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #466 on: 04 December, 2015, 12:34:05 pm »
richmond park would be a good place for the "hamster wheel" approach. no traffic lights, fairly sheltered, not too hilly, and there are so many cyclists who would be honoured to give a tow and chat.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #467 on: 04 December, 2015, 12:58:11 pm »
Even better places would be the fast time trial courses up and down the (eastern side of the) country.  Not so many tows off passing riders but a lot more from HGVs and coaches!  They may not be much fun at busy times but they are not always busy.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #468 on: 04 December, 2015, 01:48:26 pm »
Even better places would be the fast time trial courses up and down the (eastern side of the) country.  Not so many tows off passing riders but a lot more from HGVs and coaches!  They may not be much fun at busy times but they are not always busy.

I thought this as well. As he's over that way, a couple of loops of the E2 every so often wouldn't harm.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #469 on: 04 December, 2015, 02:01:01 pm »
Even better places would be the fast time trial courses up and down the (eastern side of the) country.  Not so many tows off passing riders but a lot more from HGVs and coaches!  They may not be much fun at busy times but they are not always busy.
Catch 22, though: not much of a draft when it's not busy; grim and a little bit scary when it is.  Trogging up and down a DC at 14mph on your own, when you're tired shattered, is very different from racing a TT with signage and other riders around.

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #470 on: 04 December, 2015, 02:17:03 pm »
This time of year is dire for any kind of outdoor physical activity in the UK.  Its dark.  Its windy.  Everyone is stressed - and that makes more stress for anyone rusing the roads.  These are all psychological factors that have a physiogical impact as well.  Although the curve is downward at the moment that doesn't mean a write off.  It does mean that Steve will have to pick his mileage up earlier in the spring that he would otherwise have had to do - so he is more reliant on a benign spring than otherwise. 

It also shows Steve's wisdom in starting his attempt in a calendar year so that when he got the short days in November and December he would have had the incentive (as Kurt's recent mileages have shown) of being "almost there".
Eddington Numbers 130 (imperial), 182 (metric) 574 (furlongs)  114 (nautical miles)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #471 on: 04 December, 2015, 02:46:34 pm »
Whilst my fastest ever TT time was on the A1, I really wouldn't recommend it to anyone these days, however experienced.

One dozy half asleep lorry driver and you are mincemeat.

Also the constant fumes are not great, so I think Steve's current strategy of slightly quieter roads has merit as well as being more pleasant to ride.

Martin

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #472 on: 04 December, 2015, 03:12:42 pm »
IMO this talk of Steve's 2nd attempt being on the rocks is a bit premature, his average since August can easily be caught up if he puts in the sort of mileages he did after recovery from his ankle;

But it's looking extremely unlikely he will beat Tommy's record, Kurt will do that

hillbilly

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #473 on: 04 December, 2015, 06:02:03 pm »
Lets say Steve gets to day 200 (so March or thereabouts) and is 2,500 miles behind the Godwin Line.  He will need to ride 220.8 miles a day to match Tommy on day 365.  Slightly more for the Kurt Line (say 6 to 7 miles a day on top from day 200, if Kurt ends up 1000 miles ahead).

This suggests to me that he still has a fair bit of spare capacity to use up over the winter.  Assuming he is comfortable with the daunting task of riding 220 to 230 miles a day, day in, day out over the Spring and Summer.

In other words I don't myself think its time for Steve to panic (or more correctly, observers who wish him well as I'd imagine Steve realises all of this) even if the days of riding 80 miles short of a Godwin are presumably as frustrating as hell for him.  Those will pass, in all likelihood.   

Whilst jo's charts are very informative (almost to the exclusion of all other sources) they are perhaps distorting the situation Steve is in and making it look more dramatic than it actually is.  If the absolute difference (around 800 miles) is spread over the remaining time (around 3 miles a day more than a Godwin needed) then it still looks very achievable.  For now and for some time.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #474 on: 05 December, 2015, 03:10:09 am »
IMO this talk of Steve's 2nd attempt being on the rocks is a bit premature, his average since August can easily be caught up if he puts in the sort of mileages he did after recovery from his ankle;

But it's looking extremely unlikely he will beat Tommy's record, Kurt will do that





 :thumbsup:

Easily caught up? ????


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