Author Topic: Bye Lance  (Read 284096 times)

rogerzilla

  • When n+1 gets out of hand
Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #400 on: 25 August, 2012, 09:25:00 pm »
Sorry, been meaning to do this since the news came out.
Hard work sometimes pays off in the end, but laziness ALWAYS pays off NOW.

Bye Lance
« Reply #401 on: 25 August, 2012, 09:33:08 pm »
Nearly all pro cyclists are also crap descenders - they're notorious for holding back.  It may be because received wisdom is that races are only won on the climbs.
Not sure about that, having seen the breakaways reach 90-100km/h in the Pyrenees this year. Phil n Paul mentioned someone recording a speed of over 110km/h a couple of years ago.

Dave Harmon is always mentioning that Sean Kelly got clocked at 120+ kph (pretty sure this is correct but not far off) on the descent from Col de Jeau Plan to Morzine


welshwheels

  • stop eating cheeseburgers big boy!!!!
Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #402 on: 25 August, 2012, 09:51:38 pm »
struggling up hills since 1981 !!!

Cudzoziemiec

  • Ride adventurously and stop for a brew.
Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #403 on: 25 August, 2012, 10:36:16 pm »
Nearly all pro cyclists are also crap descenders - they're notorious for holding back.  It may be because received wisdom is that races are only won on the climbs.
Not sure about that, having seen the breakaways reach 90-100km/h in the Pyrenees this year. Phil n Paul mentioned someone recording a speed of over 110km/h a couple of years ago.
I've been over 90km/h myself, and we don't have mountains in Wiltshire  :smug:
It was the cosmic attraction radiating from Avebury, wasn't it?
Riding a concrete path through the nebulous and chaotic future.

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #404 on: 25 August, 2012, 11:22:25 pm »
I was wondering, with so many allusions to it actually being impossible to do something like the TdeF without "assistance" and so many current pros, including BW being so vocal against doping, is it really possible that training methods have suddenly got so much better that riders are doing the race at pretty much the same speeds without assistance?  I just don't know.  Brailsford bis obviously an incredible motivator and organiser but I don't think it's true to say that Sky were actually that far ahead of all the others, whose "motivators" are less well-known.  Have we suddenly evolved, or something?  Just wondering.

rogerzilla

  • When n+1 gets out of hand
Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #405 on: 26 August, 2012, 07:46:43 am »
One of the big differences is that the TdF hopefuls only really race once a year.  Granted, they turn up to other races, but they use them as training and don't try to win them.  I don't think we'll see anyone do Roche's triple again for a while, or someone like Merckx winning all the one-day races and the TdF and the Giro (and anything else he had time for).  LeMond reckoned it took him  three months to fully recover from the TdF, which basically meant the rest of that season was gone. 

In t'olden days when the guys raced every week and were more all-rounders, it was far more remarkable to win the Tour.  If Armstrong only raced the Tour and still needed drugs to fo it, it starts to look unimpressive.
Hard work sometimes pays off in the end, but laziness ALWAYS pays off NOW.

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #406 on: 26 August, 2012, 10:17:27 am »
Is it really possible that training methods have suddenly got so much better that riders are doing the race at pretty much the same speeds without assistance?

They are not riding as fast now as they did in the EPO/blood-doping era. Take a look at the fastest ascents of Alpe d'Huez, for example. The top ten times are all from the 1997–2006 period, and all by riders who are known to have been doping, or where there is strong circumstantial evidence. Sanchez's winning time of 41:21 in 2011 would have been nearly four minutes behind Pantani in 1997 or Armstrong in 2004.

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #407 on: 26 August, 2012, 11:08:35 am »
One of the big differences is that the TdF hopefuls only really race once a year.

Eh? That may apply to Armstrong, but not to the rest of the peloton.

Wiggins' victories this year? Romandie, Dauphiné, Paris-Nice. Hardly "just turning up".
The journey is always more important than the destination

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #408 on: 26 August, 2012, 11:10:40 am »
Is it really possible that training methods have suddenly got so much better that riders are doing the race at pretty much the same speeds without assistance?

They are not riding as fast now as they did in the EPO/blood-doping era. .

Indeed. Added to which, races are closer than they have been for years. Riders are beginning to look genuinely knackered towards the ends of stages. I see this as a Good Thing and a Hopeful Sign.

The journey is always more important than the destination

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #409 on: 26 August, 2012, 11:15:36 am »
Roger, Gareth and HJ,

Interesting replies, thanks.  HJ, I did wonder about Bradley and his one day successes but he's not riding all the crits. and so on that most of the peloton does, I suppose.  I do want to believe!

rogerzilla

  • When n+1 gets out of hand
Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #410 on: 26 August, 2012, 11:31:40 am »
One of the big differences is that the TdF hopefuls only really race once a year.

Eh? That may apply to Armstrong, but not to the rest of the peloton.

Wiggins' victories this year? Romandie, Dauphiné, Paris-Nice. Hardly "just turning up".
True, but not in the same league as the 1960s and 1970s riders.
Hard work sometimes pays off in the end, but laziness ALWAYS pays off NOW.

LEE

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #411 on: 26 August, 2012, 11:59:14 am »
In t'olden days when the guys raced every week and were more all-rounders, it was far more remarkable to win the Tour.  If Armstrong only raced the Tour and still needed drugs to fo it, it starts to look unimpressive.

Unimpressive?  7 consecutive Tours against competition who were probably all doped-up as well?

I know what you mean Rog but I don't think unimpressive is the best way to describe it.

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #412 on: 26 August, 2012, 12:17:53 pm »
Armstrong only rode one race per year (post cancer) and did so because he was catering for the American market which doesn't know about any other race, maybe with the exception of the worlds.

He could put everything into winning one race whereas his rivals couldn't.

The same goes for Lemond as well. Although both in their early careers did ride more throughout the season, but I guess found they couldn't win many races at all doing that.

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #413 on: 26 August, 2012, 02:33:39 pm »
I'm looking forward to the huge numbers of Treks that will shortly be for sale!

(and not seeing USPostal/Livestrong jerseys at every turn on a sunny Bank Holiday!) 8)

David Martin

  • Thats Dr Oi You thankyouverymuch
Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #414 on: 26 August, 2012, 02:45:57 pm »
There is an interesting twist to this. The WADA cod (which everyone has signed up to) has a statute of limitations of 8 years. This means that Lance cannot be stripped of all 7 titles. By the time UCI get the details from USADA (who are also WADA signatories) and have gone through due process there may be only one outstanding tour victory. If there is no compelling evidence that incriminated LA pertaining to doping within the 8 years , UCI may well turn round and say, sure, you find him guilty of doping in 1999 but we can't do anything about it now. Where is the evidence for 2009?'

It is entirely possible that by the time this has all played out, nothing can be done.
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #415 on: 26 August, 2012, 02:48:26 pm »
Watching Eurosport on Friday, is Sean Kelly very uneasy talking about doping  :-\

Yeah, but I'd rather hear someone who's done and won the race commentating than most commentators.

Done and won, but maybe by cheating.
Cycling really has been, and maybe still is, corrupt from the top down to the evening 10.

jogler

  • mojo operandi
Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #416 on: 26 August, 2012, 03:02:41 pm »
There is an interesting twist to this. The WADA cod (which everyone has signed up to) has a statute of limitations of 8 years. This means that Lance cannot be stripped of all 7 titles. By the time UCI get the details from USADA (who are also WADA signatories) and have gone through due process there may be only one outstanding tour victory. If there is no compelling evidence that incriminated LA pertaining to doping within the 8 years , UCI may well turn round and say, sure, you find him guilty of doping in 1999 but we can't do anything about it now. Where is the evidence for 2009?'

It is entirely possible that by the time this has all played out, nothing can be done.

additionally,it is,AIUI, beyond USADA's remit to formally strip LA of his TdF titles.

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #417 on: 26 August, 2012, 03:32:11 pm »
The WADA code (which everyone has signed up to) has a statute of limitations of 8 years. This means that Lance cannot be stripped of all 7 titles. By the time UCI get the details from USADA (who are also WADA signatories) and have gone through due process there may be only one outstanding tour victory.

The relevant article says,

Quote from: WADA
ARTICLE 17. No action may be commenced against an Athlete or other Person for an anti-doping rule violation contained in the Code unless such action is commenced within eight years from the date the violation is asserted to have occurred.

Note that the limitation is that "no action may be commenced" (my emphasis). So to answer your second point: the time taken to communicate the decision and the sanctions to UCI does not matter because the limitations clock is no longer running.

On your first point (whether Lance can be stripped of titles prior to 8 years before the commencement of action), USADA's letter to Armstrong et al. alleges that there was a conspiracy in which the participants

Quote from: USADA
worked actively to conceal rule violations ... throughout the period from 1999 through the present

I believe the position taken by USADA is that, just as in U.S. criminal law, the "continuing violations doctrine" applies. This means that each new action in furtherance of a conspiracy resets the statute of limitations on all the actions of the conspiracy.

UCI may well turn round and say, sure, you find him guilty of doping in 1999 but we can't do anything about it now. Where is the evidence for 2009?'

If the UCI were to try something like this, one would have to ask about their motivation. Remember that one of the allegations that persistently comes up (though not mentioned in the USADA letter) is that members of the U.S. Postal Team conspired with or bribed officials in the UCI in order to cover up an alleged positive for EPO at the 2001 Tour de Suisse. If the UCI is keen to bury the whole thing, could it be because these claims are true?

rogerzilla

  • When n+1 gets out of hand
Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #418 on: 26 August, 2012, 09:16:18 pm »
From Sickipedia:

Quote
Lance Armstrong said he's grown weary of fighting the doping allegations.

Surely he could just take more of his drugs to overcome the tiredness?
Hard work sometimes pays off in the end, but laziness ALWAYS pays off NOW.

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #419 on: 27 August, 2012, 10:52:29 am »
The WADA code (which everyone has signed up to) has a statute of limitations of 8 years. This means that Lance cannot be stripped of all 7 titles. By the time UCI get the details from USADA (who are also WADA signatories) and have gone through due process there may be only one outstanding tour victory.

The relevant article says,

Quote from: WADA
ARTICLE 17. No action may be commenced against an Athlete or other Person for an anti-doping rule violation contained in the Code unless such action is commenced within eight years from the date the violation is asserted to have occurred.

Note that the limitation is that "no action may be commenced" (my emphasis). So to answer your second point: the time taken to communicate the decision and the sanctions to UCI does not matter because the limitations clock is no longer running.

On your first point (whether Lance can be stripped of titles prior to 8 years before the commencement of action), USADA's letter to Armstrong et al. alleges that there was a conspiracy in which the participants

Quote from: USADA
worked actively to conceal rule violations ... throughout the period from 1999 through the present

I believe the position taken by USADA is that, just as in U.S. criminal law, the "continuing violations doctrine" applies. This means that each new action in furtherance of a conspiracy resets the statute of limitations on all the actions of the conspiracy.

UCI may well turn round and say, sure, you find him guilty of doping in 1999 but we can't do anything about it now. Where is the evidence for 2009?'

If the UCI were to try something like this, one would have to ask about their motivation. Remember that one of the allegations that persistently comes up (though not mentioned in the USADA letter) is that members of the U.S. Postal Team conspired with or bribed officials in the UCI in order to cover up an alleged positive for EPO at the 2001 Tour de Suisse. If the UCI is keen to bury the whole thing, could it be because these claims are true?

From cyclingnews today:

"One of Lance Armstrong’s key arguments in fighting United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) charges of doping and conspiracy was that the agency was acting outside the eight-year statute of limitations. USADA boss Travis Tygart has now revealed that if Armstrong had co-operated with the investigation, that statute may actually have applied."

And he'd have kept 5 out of 7 titles.
We are making a New World (Paul Nash, 1918)

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #420 on: 27 August, 2012, 02:22:15 pm »
Regarding the statute of limitations (SOL), USADA did state in the charging letter to Bruyneel, Ferrari et al that fraudulent activity aimed at concealing doping violations is sufficient grounds for waiving the statute.

Quote from: USADA letter, page 14
Finally, it may be noted that the conduct of the USPS Conspiracy and doping by its
participants has spanned a period in excess of eight (8) years and there currently exists an
eight year statute of limitations in the Code and UCI ADR. With respect to each of the
Respondents there exists substantial evidence in the form of eyewitness testimony of
doping that occurred within eight years of the date of this letter.

It is also the law that evidence of doping throughout the entire time period described is
relevant and will be admissible in any eventual hearing for at least two reasons: (I)
evidence of doping and evidence of conspiratorial acts outside any applicable limitations
period can be used to corroborate evidence within the limitations period, and (2) as
explained in USADA v. Hellebuyck (copy provided as Attachment D) results outside the
limitations period can be disqualified where reliance on the statute of limitations has been
waived through false statements, fraudulent concealment or other wrongful conduct.

Eddy Hellebuyck, a Belgo-American marathon runner, tested positive for EPO in an out-of-competition test in 2004. Hellebuyck went to arbitration, where he stated that he had never used EPO prior to 2004. He received the usual two-year ban, commencing January 31, 2004. However, in 2010, in an interview with Runner's World magazine, he admitted to using EPO, and then wrote to USADA, confessing to using EPO in 2001. As a result, new proceedings were instigated in 2011, with his results going back to 2001 being wiped.

As noted in a Some Random Thursday blog post on LA and SOL, the way SOL worked meant that in theory, USADA couldn't have been able to do anything about Hellebuyck's 2001 doping violations, not least because the applicable SOL period in 2001 was six years. However...

Quote from: Some Random Thursday
Here's where things get interesting.  USADA argued that the statute of limitations was tolled (to delay, suspend or hold off the effect of a statute) by Hellebuyck's fraudulent concealment of his prior use of EPO.  The arbitration panel acknowledged that "there have been no AAA or CAS panels that have addressed fraudulent concealment or equitable tolling as a result of a prior perjury allegation with respect to the statute of limitations under the WADA Code or the admissions limitation period under the IAAF Rules."  However, the panel determined that Hellebuyck's false testimony in 2004 fraudulently concealed his prior violations and that "any limitations period in this case was tolled until actual discovery of the wrongdoing. in other words until Hellebuyck notified USADA in October of 2010, and USADA brought its claims herein well within any limitations period ofter that publication."

So, for USADA to use Hellebuyck as justification for scrubbing all results post-1998, never mind post-2004, there has to be something in their case file which shows that Armstrong was fraudulently concealing prior violations, preferably during the SOL time frame preceding the posting of the charging letter. From what I was reading yesterday, I think it has to be something to do with the 2006 arbitration hearings connected to the dispute between SCA Promotions and Tailwind. The Wiki entry on Armstrong had only a cursory mention of the SCA case, but the cite note linked to an investigative article in the Los Angeles Times from 2006, which makes for interesting reading.

http://articles.latimes.com/2006/jul/09/sports/sp-armstrong9

Quote from: LA Times
Sworn testimony as well as exhibits and other documents constitute the record of confidential arbitration proceedings, a series of closed hearings conducted early this year in Dallas in connection with a contract dispute.

The Times reviewed the files -- including thousands of pages of transcripts, exhibits and other records. They are filled with conflicting testimony, hearsay and circumstantial evidence admissible in arbitration hearings but questionable in more formal legal proceedings.

The record shows no eyewitnesses to Armstrong's alleged drug use. And in his own sworn testimony, Armstrong unequivocally denies that he ever doped.

(My bold)

For those who are interested, Armstrong's testimony found it's way on to the web in both video and transcript form:

http://velocitynation.com/content/features/2011/bicileaks-full-armstrong-sca-testimony
http://www.scribd.com/doc/31833754/Lance-Armstrong-Testimony

USADA stripping results outside the SOL time frame suggests that there is recent sworn testimony in the case file, and other evidence, that shows Armstrong was lying through his teeth in 2006, and in my opinion, Armstrong's refusal to contest the charges suggests that he knows that if he testifies to USADA truthfully now, this will become all too apparent.
"He who fights monsters should see to it that he himself does not become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you." ~ Freidrich Neitzsche

Rig of Jarkness

  • An Englishman abroad
Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #421 on: 27 August, 2012, 05:33:22 pm »
I can't believe that Armstrong has really thrown in the towel on this.  Surely it's just a tactic to pit USADA against the UCI ?  I reckon he's confident that the UCI will win and will refuse to recognise USADA's ruling.  That way he gets to keep his wins and without incurring further legal costs of his own.
Aero but not dynamic

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #422 on: 27 August, 2012, 10:34:12 pm »
I wonder if the Sunday Times can try to get their money back? Armstrong sued the newspaper for libel after they published extracts from David Walsh's book L. A. Confidential which implied that he doped, and it paid him an undisclosed sum of money (allegedly £400,000) to drop the case.

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #423 on: 27 August, 2012, 11:05:56 pm »
SCA Promotions are undoubtedly watching current events with interest as well.

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/12723/Armstrong-case-Sunday-Times-and-SCA-Promotions-considering-options.aspx

I'd imagine that everyone's holding their fire until USADA releases its "reasoned decision" and the UCI acts on it in accordance with their obligations under the WADA code. Plenty more water to be passed before everyone that LA has reamed in the past queue up to invoke the law of threefold return, methinks.
"He who fights monsters should see to it that he himself does not become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you." ~ Freidrich Neitzsche

Re: Bye Lance
« Reply #424 on: 28 August, 2012, 12:27:06 am »
A couple of good pieces on the apparent lack of response from riders to the latest developments:

http://inrng.com/2012/08/armstrong-should-riders-speak-up/
http://gerard.cc/2012/08/27/lets-focus-on-the-future/

As much as we'd like the riders to speak up, both articles and most of the comments show that perhaps it's not as simple as armchair warriors think it is. A few riders and team managers have offered a response, and these can be found via the CN news archive:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/archive/2012/34/5
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/archive/2012/34/6

It's interesting to see who's willing to speak out in support of USADA, who's got a fence post where the sun doesn't shine, and who's a full-on Armstrong supporter.

And to finish off, here's a good piece on the The Science of Sport blog, which offers a rebuttal to the most common arguments against the USADA action:

http://www.sportsscientists.com/2012/08/the-armstrong-fallout-thoughts-and.html
"He who fights monsters should see to it that he himself does not become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you." ~ Freidrich Neitzsche