Author Topic: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)  (Read 17348 times)

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #50 on: 26 August, 2012, 09:33:25 pm »
I  think what really hurt Froome yesterday was that Uran had an off day and couldn't do his turn at the front.  Henao came back and did a bit extra but Froome was on his own without help for far longer and was not able to control the tempo. 

It looks to me like Rodriguez is best placed.  Even if Froome gets a minute ahead of him on the TT, he still has lots of hilltop finishes where he can attack late and get time bonuses. 

citoyen

  • Occasionally rides a bike
Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #51 on: 27 August, 2012, 12:47:07 pm »
I  think what really hurt Froome yesterday was that Uran had an off day and couldn't do his turn at the front. 

Agreed. It looked like Uran was paying the price for trying to catch up after his puncture the day before.

d.
"The future's all yours, you lousy bicycles."

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #52 on: 29 August, 2012, 05:28:57 pm »
But with 5 mountain stages in the last week and the time bonuses, froome might need quite a lead over jrod. It was the time bonuses that cost froome last year. Contador may be a different matter though and ride himself into the third week whereas froome might go over the top if he hasn't already.

That's the problem. Froome may be a great TTist but margins in the TT may not be great enough for him to stay ahead of the other three.

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The journey is always more important than the destination

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #53 on: 29 August, 2012, 10:00:03 pm »
Yes, I was disappointed that Froome didnt win or get leaders jersey. I need to stop being so cynical , and assuming contador and valverde must be doping given their better than expected performances. Dont have any reason to think they were doping other than what they've done before. I wonder if this was contadors 1st clean time trial in a long time. I can't know Froome was clean, although I believe him and the rest of sky are.

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #54 on: 29 August, 2012, 10:20:14 pm »
What makes you think Contador is clean now? He has almost certainly been a long-term doper.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

David Martin

  • Thats Dr Oi You thankyouverymuch
Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #55 on: 29 August, 2012, 11:10:26 pm »
So would you expect Froome to drop off the pace more, especially after the next rest day?

"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #56 on: 30 August, 2012, 04:45:52 am »
I don't expect anything from Sky pros. Nobody else has managed to have year-long peak performance.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

citoyen

  • Occasionally rides a bike
Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #57 on: 30 August, 2012, 08:07:57 am »
I don't expect anything from Sky pros. Nobody else has managed to have year-long peak performance.

Quite. I think a few people have got a bit carried away with the euphoria of the TdF and Olympics and were expecting too much from Froome in this race.

How good is Contador vs Froome?

Over a flat course, you'd favour Froome. But anyone surprised by yesterday's result should look at the 2009 TdF, which had a hilly, technical TT round Lake Annecy. Contador beat Cancellara in that.

Kessiakoff is a strong all-rounder who hasn't figured much in the race so far, so his performance was no surprise, but really Froome didn't do too bad, all things considered - just look at where Tony Martin finished.

Froome has done well so far but I'd now expect him to fade out of contention as the race goes on. Which is a shame.

d.

"The future's all yours, you lousy bicycles."

JT

  • Howay the lads!
    • CTC Peterborough
Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #58 on: 30 August, 2012, 08:53:57 am »
Cancellara complained that Contador got assistance from some of the motorbikes during that Annecy TT in 2009. Regardless, Contador is a good tester - a junior Spanish champion I believe.

The key thing for the next half of the Vuelta is Contador's lack of racing versus Froome's excess of racing.

My view is that Froome is still very much a work in progress. He has bags of raw talent but is a little suspect tactically (coupled with an inexperienced DS at the Vuelta), and still has days where he misjudges his power/strength - I'm thinking of that stage in the Tour where one minute he was pacing Wiggins, then went backwards before recovering to get back up to the front. That kind of uneven effort will take it's toll.

Another podium finish along with the experience of leading a team in a Grand Tour will be great for him (and Sky).
a great mind thinks alike

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #59 on: 30 August, 2012, 08:57:36 am »
I expect Froome to fade now. I think the season must be taking its toll now, but also cannot get myself past suspicsion of others doping.
I remember well the Annecy TT: contador was ahead of everyone even at the flat start: I put contadors performance in that down to perf enhancing drugs.

Back on topic, theres still  4 summit finishes to go: Looks like froome can't respond to the attacks the others put in which ultimately might lose it for him. I think he may end up dragging the others up the climbs and get dropped in the final meters.  I hope not.

LEE

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #60 on: 30 August, 2012, 09:12:58 am »
Froome is in a better position now than a few days ago.  He looks like a beaten man (he probably is) rather than the main threat.  He may be able to slip under the radar now that Contador and Rodriguez are focussing on each other.

Personally I hope Contador has a mechanical issue on a steep climb with his team car trapped miles behind. I don't think he should be racing.

JT

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Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #61 on: 30 August, 2012, 09:45:36 am »
I remember well the Annecy TT: contador was ahead of everyone even at the flat start: I put contadors performance in that down to perf enhancing drugs.

Actually the wind changed direction considerably between Cancellara's ride and when the top 10 went out. All of the top 10 closed the gap on Cancellara in the latter half the course (with a strong tailwind) apart from Wiggins who bonked.

Of course I'm not saying Contador wasn't doping, just that there were other factors involved which might explain the performance.
a great mind thinks alike

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #62 on: 30 August, 2012, 11:19:44 am »
It may be that Froomes best (only) hope is to target one of the remaining hill top finishes and try and use his team to blow the field off his wheels - which may nett hin a podium, his (IMO) most realistic target.
We are making a New World (Paul Nash, 1918)

David Martin

  • Thats Dr Oi You thankyouverymuch
Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #63 on: 30 August, 2012, 01:00:28 pm »
His best chance is for the other riders to not watch him but knock spots off each other on the mountains and then Froome to TT his way to the win. If he does the constant pace thing, then he has to be pretty sure that he can ride the others off his wheel. He can't match the others in the variable stop start climbing we have seen so far.
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

JT

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    • CTC Peterborough
Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #64 on: 30 August, 2012, 01:02:51 pm »
Good job you're not the DS,  David. There are no more TT stages.  ;D

Edited to add: Ah I see you didn't literally mean TT. My mistake.  :-[
a great mind thinks alike

David Martin

  • Thats Dr Oi You thankyouverymuch
Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #65 on: 30 August, 2012, 01:06:04 pm »
There is no point in Sky dragging the others to the top of the hill. It will not work if the others can sit on Froomes wheel. He has to be able to hold a pace that they cannot hold. Break them down by sustained pressure  rather than short attacks.
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

citoyen

  • Occasionally rides a bike
Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #66 on: 30 August, 2012, 03:57:54 pm »
David Harmon just mentioned that the final climb on today's stage has sections up to 30%.

 :o

 :sick:
"The future's all yours, you lousy bicycles."

JT

  • Howay the lads!
    • CTC Peterborough
Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #67 on: 30 August, 2012, 04:01:31 pm »
David Harmon just mentioned that the final climb on today's stage has sections up to 30%.

 :o

 :sick:

Only if you take the wrong line around a hairpin (according to the Inrng preview of the stage).

It still has sections of 20% and an average of 13%. But it's only 2km long. One for Rodriguez I think.
a great mind thinks alike

citoyen

  • Occasionally rides a bike
Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #68 on: 30 August, 2012, 04:15:00 pm »
Yup. I looked up more info after Harmon said that.

270 metres altitude gain in just under 2km - doesn't sound nearly so bad. But will still be pretty tough at racing speed...

They're nearly there now and can see it looming up ahead of them.

Come on, Purito!

d.
"The future's all yours, you lousy bicycles."

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #69 on: 30 August, 2012, 04:38:40 pm »
Yes, I was disappointed that Froome didnt win or get leaders jersey. I need to stop being so cynical , and assuming contador and valverde must be doping

If Contador's doping now, he's an even bigger tw@t than he was when he was caught doping. Not sure about Valverde - he's not been that good so far
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and, indeed, is riding as though it hurts when it gets hard.
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David Martin

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Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #70 on: 30 August, 2012, 04:43:59 pm »
Has anyone worked out what the GC would be without time bonuses? These sort of short punchy climbs are really not Froomes cup of tea.
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #71 on: 30 August, 2012, 06:53:08 pm »
Top riders are reported to have used gearings as low as 36x28 or 38x32 today.

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #72 on: 30 August, 2012, 07:04:00 pm »
Has anyone worked out what the GC would be without time bonuses? These sort of short punchy climbs are really not Froomes cup of tea.

Current GC:
1J. Rodriguez44:50:35
2A. Contador@ +13s
3C. Froome@ +51s
4A. Valverde@ +1m20s

Time bonuses at the end of non-time trial stages are as follows: 1st place = 20 seconds; 2nd place = 12 seconds; 3rd place = 8 seconds

There are intermediate sprint bonus seconds available as well: 1st place = 6 seconds; 2nd place = 4 seconds; 3rd place = 2 seconds

Having had a quick scan through the stage results on Cycling News, the total time bonuses won by the four main contenders are as follows:

J. Rodriguez76 seconds
A. Valverde56 seconds
A. Contador22 seconds (includes intermediate sprint bonus on Stage 2)
C. Froome20 seconds

Adding those times on drops J-Rod to 3rd, Valv.Piti stays in 4th, but the overall 1st-4th time spread drops by half:

1A. Contador44:51:10
2C. Froome@ +36s
3J. Rodriguez@ +41s
4A. Valverde@ +60s
"He who fights monsters should see to it that he himself does not become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you." ~ Freidrich Neitzsche

LEE

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #73 on: 31 August, 2012, 09:23:27 am »
Good to see top riders going up hills (albeit bloody steep ones) looking like me going up hills..i.e. struggling to turn the cranks over.

9km/hr at some points apparently.

Re: Vuelta a España 2012 (likely to include spoilers)
« Reply #74 on: 31 August, 2012, 09:28:40 am »
Good to see top riders going up hills (albeit bloody steep ones) looking like me going up hills..i.e. struggling to turn the cranks over.

Indeed. Which leads me to hope there might be less doping going on than before.
The journey is always more important than the destination