(Sunday 3 Feb 2238 GMT) Another 127 have pre-registered in the last 4 days: 2075 places shown as available (for those with a longest BRM in 2018 of 400) to try to pre-register in 7 days' time.
I wonder what proportion of the thirteen thousand 400s are 'duplicates' and what proportion were ridden by Super Randonneurs (2018).
ACP 2018 homologations [and pre-registrants]
1000km 2431 [~1960]
600km 10569 [~2410]
400km 13067
300km 20333
interesting that of 2431 BRM1000s 1960 places were taken up, this suggests greater than 80% of people riding a 1000km brevet entered.
Assuming all the 1000km riders did a 600km (I skipped 600km last year, there must be others) then only 2400 of the 8000 additional qualifiers took up a place, (30%)
Then we see only 2500 extra riders gained a 400km brevet that didn't get a 600km, assuming their take up is also 30% (i don't see why it would be greater than the 600s) that takes 750 places of the remaining 2000, leaving 1250 places for the 300s, but there are 7000 of them potentially so we are still looking at 40-60% getting a place.
But if the desire to enter tails away further among riders as the distances get shorter (or people interested in entering are more likely to have ridden further as per the advice) or the number of multiple rides by the same rider increases then it may be that there is not a surplus of 300km riders who will be disappointed.
I did eleven 200s, three 300s, one 400 and one 1000 last year. Not sure how typical that is but I suspect it is not unusual for people to do fewer rides of the longer distances.
In 2015 more entrants came from the 600k group than the 400k. ACP's analysis suggested there'd be 9% of spaces left over after the 400k. This assumes the same ratio and there will be some margin for error with that.
9% will not be enough for all 300k on the same analysis.
there are two potential reasons for the increase
1) there is a 60% increase in people riding long distance, consistent at all distances and the proportion who are interested in riding PBP is unchanged, in which case all the 400s will be in and half of the 300s
2) People took the ACP warnings about needing longer distance rides to qualify seriously, and there is a shift towards riding longer rides among the riders who want to ride, with that number not increasing significantly.
It could well be that there are many riders in distant parts of the world riding long brevets, who when push comes to shove can't justify the best part of a fortnight in europe (and all the cost that entails) for a bike ride