Author Topic: [HAMR] Speculation  (Read 15376 times)

Wowbagger

  • Stout dipper
    • Stuff mostly about weather
[HAMR] Speculation
« on: 30 March, 2015, 06:51:25 am »
Having said in another thread that it's far too early to think about where Steve goes from here, I have spent a largely sleepless night fretting about exactly that. I'm going to capture those thoughts to the best of my ability.

Firstly, I am sure everyone on here shares my annoyance and frustration about what has happened, with the probable exception of Steve, who is a much better man than I am and will probably face those two imposters just the same. It's Steve who has to make the decision as to how he wants to proceed, and that could be quite tricky. Ankle injuries can be quite complicated and metal plates pinned to bones bring with them their own problems. My pal Mel had such an operation a few years ago when he snapped a tibia whilst out walking, and mostly it gives him no trouble, but it does give him jip in especially cold weather. He puts this down to titanium's coefficient of linear expansion not being the same as bone's. Hopefully Steve can make a full recovery and will want to take up the challenge again.

Secondly, there is the issue of whether Steve wants to approach the UMCA to propose a rule change, and whether they will entertain any such request. My immediate reaction is that it's probably a deviation too far. The 365 cinsecutive day trial seems right to me. When Chris Froome fell off his bike in the Tour de France he didn't put in a request to put the race on hold until he was better. In one sense I think that the Spirit of Tommy Godwin is lost when the challenge was not for the period 1st Jan to 31st December. On the other hand, it has led to a fascinating battle between the two protagonists. When Miles Smith starts in A few days' time that will recreate that to a point, but without Steve, for me, the major interest has gone. It is personal.

Assuming, then, that Steve and the UMCA do come to some arrangement that he can put his first 88 days on ice, as it were, the question remains "When?" That is extremely difficult. Six weeks off for rest and recuperation doesn't sound practical to me. Steve will have lost a lot of his fitness and the return of confidence in your own body not to break takes quite a time. It's almost 8 months since I tore my calf muscle and it still worries me that it will go again. Besides. Steve won't be replacing like with like. The next 6 weeks were, according to his plan, which he had stuck to very successfully, about to see him go into 220 a day mode, and increasing. He's not going to be doing that after 6 weeks off, and it would mean replacing 6 weeks of April and May with 6 weeks of Jan and Feb.

What if the UMCA allowed for a resumption at 8.16am on 29th March 2016? At least that would allow a decent enough time for a recovery and Steve could get himself back to fitness. On the other hand, you could equally argue that he might as well start from scratch.

Whatever you decide, Steve, take it easy and have a long think. For my part, my financial contribution (not that it !s massive) will continue for as long as it takes. Get well soon!
Quote from: Dez
It doesn’t matter where you start. Just start.

hillbilly

Re: Speculation
« Reply #1 on: 30 March, 2015, 07:03:03 am »
I can appreciate the consideration put into your post WB.  But the likelihood is that the UMCA will not change the rules to permit Steve to continue with a pause. Unfortunately, retiring from challenges due to the cruel intervention of fate is a reality of all sports, including regulated ones.

Where this leaves Steve is likely (but not definitely) to be a choice between completing this year with a gap for injury, or starting a new 12 month attempt. Or putting it down as a life experience and moving on to other things.

Whatever he does, he will have my best wishes and support.

red marley

Re: Speculation
« Reply #2 on: 30 March, 2015, 07:20:19 am »
I think Hillbilly has it. It does not seem likely, nor in my opinion, right, for the rules to be changed in the light of what has happened.

Importantly, I think we need to keep any pressure off Steve to follow a particular path (not that I think WB's post does this, but just in case there's a temptation to fill this thread with plans on Steve's behalf).

Get well Steve, and hope you are able to keep a positive frame of mind.

T42

  • Apprentice geezer
Re: Speculation
« Reply #3 on: 30 March, 2015, 07:52:12 am »
As far as I can remember, 6 weeks is the time to put load on again, and is just the beginning of re-education.  My collar-bone was broken in June 2002 and I was back on the bike in August, but it was November before I did 100k again.  Steve has far more determination than I ever had but ankles aren't collar-bones.

Getting well again is first priority.
I've dusted off all those old bottles and set them up straight

Re: Speculation
« Reply #4 on: 30 March, 2015, 08:11:12 am »
The main thing is to let the injury heal properly and avoid rushing back as soon as it "feels better".
I fell off a motorcycle and whacked my knee when I was 17, at the time thought that I didn't need the crutches or physio, but every winter since, the slight arthritis reminds me of that decision.

GWS Steve.
All the best, Paul.

Re: Speculation
« Reply #5 on: 30 March, 2015, 08:16:59 am »
Another bloke who fell off a motorbike.:-

"A spectacular crash at the Daytona 200 in the 1975 season threatened to end his career, breaking his left thigh, right arm, collarbone and two ribs, yet he recovered and was racing again seven weeks afterwards.

In the 1976 season, he won five 500cc Grands Prix, bringing him the World Championship. He took the Championship again in the 1977 season with six victories. For the 1977 season Sheene was partnered by Steve Parrish, who rode Sheene's 1976 Suzuki 500 cc machine."

Re: Speculation
« Reply #6 on: 30 March, 2015, 08:59:46 am »
First get the injury sorted out properly. It would make no sense rushing it and causing problems later in life.

Since Steve made a very deliberate decision to start on january first, I assume that the best variant would be starting all over again on 1-1-2016. He has the time to let the ankle heal properly and get back his fitness before a proper restart. Lessons learned from this attempt could then be included in the new attempt.
The Froome comparison is correct. This attempt is gone now due to the crash.

LEE

  • "Shut Up Jens" - Legs.
Re: Speculation
« Reply #7 on: 30 March, 2015, 09:14:26 am »
Avoiding accidents and illness for a year is part of what make it such a tough challenge. The jeopardy was there for me, not in Steve's extraordinary ability to cover miles.

I'd say the record requires 50% talent and 50% luck.

Kurt will be hoping for luck now I expect.  He appeared to get lucky already when his bars snapped.  That could so easily have been a collar-bone broken. A million pot-holes to avoid, a million junctions to negotiate.

They are both cramming 20 years cycling into a year (and 4,000 miles a year isn't exactly "normal").  Even in my small group of cycling friends I've seen broken bones and illnesses enough to stop an attempt like this.



Some people say I'm self-obsessed but that's enough about them.

Re: Speculation
« Reply #8 on: 30 March, 2015, 09:22:05 am »
First get the injury sorted out properly. It would make no sense rushing it and causing problems later in life.

Since Steve made a very deliberate decision to start on january first, I assume that the best variant would be starting all over again on 1-1-2016. He has the time to let the ankle heal properly and get back his fitness before a proper restart. Lessons learned from this attempt could then be included in the new attempt.
The Froome comparison is correct. This attempt is gone now due to the crash.

+1.

A 2016 restart will have all three 2015 attempts serve as a benchmark.

Basil

  • Um....err......oh bugger!
  • Help me!
Re: Speculation
« Reply #9 on: 30 March, 2015, 09:27:42 am »
Yup, I reckon a restart on 1/1/16 would be best.  Looks like we may need to support Steve (who is now jobless) even more.

One thing is, that it's a shame to have lost all that winter work.  This winter was actually pretty benign.  Who knows what next year could throw up?
Admission.  I'm actually not that fussed about cake.

Re: Speculation
« Reply #10 on: 30 March, 2015, 09:37:01 am »
It will be a fantastic book Steve.  ;D

First attempt joined by an American and then an Aussie. Got knocked off. Started again and,,,,

Wait and see.  ;)

Re: Speculation
« Reply #11 on: 30 March, 2015, 10:42:14 am »
I'm gutted for Steve. Of course, I'm sure he's already thinking about what to do with the rest of the year, but we can speculate  :P

Maybe he could do some events/challenges once he's recovered? What's the round the world record at the moment? 98 days it would seem.  I'd happily chuck some more money his way for him to have a go at that  :)
Those wonderful norks are never far from my thoughts, oh yeah!

srw

Re: Speculation
« Reply #12 on: 30 March, 2015, 12:29:54 pm »
I wouldn't presume to advise Steve and his team, but I'm wondering whether a midsummer start might be more productive. You spend the winter and sprint getting match-fit, then start at peak fitness, have the tough times in the middle and finish as things are getting better again.

Of course a new attempt would require continued sponsorship and support, as well as willingness on the part of Steve.

The first priority has to be to let the inury heal - which I suspect means active and expert physiotherapy as well as an understanding surgeon, which in turn means more sponsorship required.

Re: Speculation
« Reply #13 on: 30 March, 2015, 12:47:30 pm »
I'm sure Steve will make his own decisions and no doubt even a man as experienced and practical as Steve will have learnt something about the challenge, preparation, competition and himself in the three months to this point
 
I suspect he'll heal up and come back stronger and even better prepared for another attempt. Let's not forget that, at,  he remains the only challenger hoping to complete this in the UK with our weather and lack of infinite wind assisted flat roads and he will always be admired for that.

As for pausing records? That's absolutely not justifiable at all and I would be horrified if the UMCA agreed to it. For Stewe or anyone else.
Does not play well with others

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Speculation
« Reply #14 on: 30 March, 2015, 12:49:11 pm »
I don't know about a mid-summer restart date but srw makes a lot of sense.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

hillbilly

Re: Speculation
« Reply #15 on: 30 March, 2015, 01:02:06 pm »
The itch of the skin underneath a plaster cast is likely to be nothing compared to the itch of unfinished business.

Re: Speculation
« Reply #16 on: 30 March, 2015, 01:23:54 pm »
I speculate Steve will be back on his bike in July, enjoying the company of his friends, riding through Marsh Gibbon and having an 'eat as much as you like' breakfast or two, with his friends.

T42

  • Apprentice geezer
Re: Speculation
« Reply #17 on: 30 March, 2015, 01:30:17 pm »
Here's hoping.
I've dusted off all those old bottles and set them up straight

mcshroom

  • Mushroom
Re: Speculation
« Reply #18 on: 30 March, 2015, 01:34:37 pm »
Best wishes Steve whatever you decide. I'll not be cancelling the standing order, at least for now.
Climbs like a sprinter, sprints like a climber!

pdm

  • Sheffield hills? Nah... Just potholes.
Re: Speculation
« Reply #19 on: 30 March, 2015, 01:36:37 pm »
2p worth from personal experience.
(Having had an ankle fracture and internal fixation as a result.)
Surgery: This is painful. Drilling holes in bone, stripping periosteum and tissue damage is painful. Pain lasts for about 4 weeks before improving over a further 4 weeks.
Nerve damage: Sometimes, nerves are damaged with surgery - this can cause pain and delayed rehabilitation. In my case, this added 4 weeks and still causes problems.
Healing: Bone takes time to unite and strengthen. At age 40, one needs to reckon on 6 weeks at minimum.
Rehabilitation: With internal fixation and a sympathetic surgeon, it is possible to remove plaster after 2 weeks and mobilise the ankle non-weight bearing for the next 2 weeks with partial weight bearing for the next 2 weeks. Full weight bearing can commence if all is well after 6 weeks at minimum. I was back on the turbo at 3 weeks, started applying resistance at 4 weeks and was back on the road at 8 weeks. Things will be slower if the plaster is kept on longer.
Fitness: I found that fitness starts to reduce from 2 weeks and takes equivalent time to be regained. It took me 12 weeks to get back to fitness similarly equivalent to before.

As to what to expect from Steve, we can only speculate but I would submit that we should not expect him to resume the challenge in less than 8 weeks from his injury as the best possible scenario.

Nick H.

Re: Speculation
« Reply #20 on: 30 March, 2015, 01:37:27 pm »
If he has a 6 week break he could get back on the horse and gamble that the other two will probably be forced to take a break at some point. It's early days.

Re: Speculation
« Reply #21 on: 30 March, 2015, 01:39:54 pm »
I speculate Kurt has moved from 10 days behind Steve to 355 days ahead of Steve.

Re: Speculation
« Reply #22 on: 30 March, 2015, 01:44:35 pm »
I speculate Kurt has moved from 10 days behind Steve to 355 days ahead of Steve.

I hope you are right.  But what would he do for the intervening time once his ankle is mended? Take  temporary job until Dec?

mcshroom

  • Mushroom
Re: Speculation
« Reply #23 on: 30 March, 2015, 01:45:49 pm »
Get practice in on a recumbent? :demon:
Climbs like a sprinter, sprints like a climber!

Re: Speculation
« Reply #24 on: 30 March, 2015, 01:57:52 pm »
If he has a 6 week break he could get back on the horse and gamble that the other two will probably be forced to take a break  ???at some point. It's early days.

In the circumstances the word is perhaps not the best one to use! I hope no-one takes a break, at least in their body. An unplanned pause perhaps.

On a different subject - where does this leave Steve with PBP? Presumably he will miss out on the early qualifying deadlines (200km and 300km)? Bit of a bummer, that! Are there any other long randonnées with less strict entry conditions that might appeal to him?