Yet Another Cycling Forum

General Category => Audax => Topic started by: jochta on 29 April, 2015, 08:39:35 am

Title: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 29 April, 2015, 08:39:35 am
Couldn't see anywhere where a collation of observer's thoughts was so...

Must admit after Steve's injury the fun of the challenge pretty much ended for me. This and Tarzan's illness shows how vulnerable the record is to incidents out of your control.

The following are all IMO...


All three challenges have further proved how incredible Tommy's record is and anyone who beats it will be the owner of one incredible achievement and I wish them all the best of luck.

John
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 29 April, 2015, 09:18:26 am
I think I've thought most of that all year long, but previously it was merely theory. Now we have the practice.

Having said that, if Steve thinks it's still viable for this year, albeit much shakier than before his injury, I'd never write him off.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: notlobgp14 on 29 April, 2015, 09:56:41 am

"Must admit after Steve's injury the fun of the challenge pretty much ended for me. This and Tarzan's illness shows how vulnerable the record is to incidents out of your control."

Regarding the fun; I can agree with you to some degree, but don't you think we the 'followers' got carried away and over hyped the attempt?  By that I mean we could have thought he was invincible?  There could also have been something along those lines getting into Steve's head?  It was all going very well, and probably can get back on track.  That weekend of the accident was going to be an extreme test, late finish, early start and 300 miles for a target.  The moped rider can't have known anything about that and Steve was just riding a bike on a road.  It could be a case of 'the butterfly flapping it's wings'?


Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Canardly on 29 April, 2015, 10:02:15 am
Don't underestimate Steve's determination.  :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Climberruss on 29 April, 2015, 10:06:09 am
Dont underestimate Steve's determination.  :)

I wouldn't underestimate any of the contenders determination, 2 out of 3 have had setbacks, there will be further setbacks. Recovering from these and carrying on actually makes the conest more not less interesting. It also highlights more and more the original superlative level of Tommy G's acheivement.
Remember, this is a year long contest, not a few days or weeks or even months...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 29 April, 2015, 10:22:01 am
And we are nearly one-third of the way through.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 29 April, 2015, 11:58:03 am
Honest thought is that once felt significant now feels much less so.  In part because of the remoteness of the two overseas challengers.  In part because I view the MK Bowl circuits as filler. 

The fizz may return if Steve starts a new attempt, but I suspect I will feel less enthralled than the first 3 months.  In part because the daily comparison of Steve v Kurt will be less meaningful than when they were separated by 10 days.  Basing this on how I feel about Miles' challenge vs Steve and Kurt (which is much less engaged).

My guess about the riders are:
Steve: Will not exceed Tommy's total in 2015.  Likely to in 2016 if he stays injury free
Kurt: Will not exceed Tommy's total but will get close.
Miles: Will exceed Tommy's total if he stays injury free.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 29 April, 2015, 03:04:05 pm
  • Steve's chance is gone for 2015.

The chance of Steve beating the tommy Godwin record are slim in this year.

However, Steve is virtually certain to get the UMCA record, as it is age-based and he will be the first official contender to complete 365 days.

I share your doubts about Mile's ability to keep going at this rate. As demonstrated by Kurt, it's not just about miles, it is also about maintaining your body health. Such a bloody irony that the person being most organised about not overstressing themselves gets injured by a drunk moton.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andrew531 on 29 April, 2015, 03:32:14 pm
The Facebook video that has just been posted by Steve states that the aim is still to ride 75,000 miles this calendar year. Seems the only thing that has changed since he had the accident is that he is drinking coffee and not tea!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rabbit on 30 April, 2015, 10:57:44 am
I think Steve will break the record this year, even if it is by just 100 miles.

I think he will smash it if he can stay fit and accident free on the 15/16 attempt as he will be coming into that 'running' after maintaining fitness on the trike and with the winter's worth of experience. 

I think Kurt and Miles both stand good chances of putting in huge totals, but I suspect Kurt may break either physically or mentally.  I hope he doesn't, I like the guy.   

One thing is for certain - only Steve will hold the UK Tommy Godwin record if he breaks it.  Surely attempting the record in the UK should be the Gold Standard, with the variable traffic, climate, short roads, junctions and traffic?   ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 01 May, 2015, 01:37:10 am
If everything goes well, I think Steve still has a chance of breaking the record this year. As we have said many times, that "if" is the biggest of all. There are so many things that can go wrong.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 01 May, 2015, 06:27:46 am
Been busy this week so hadn't noticed how Steve has upped his mileage to 100 miles per day one legged.  I will be a big ask to catch up the lost mileage but in doing so even if he doesn't get the record this year, he will be on track for a 1 July to 30 June 2016 HAMR.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: liam_whippet on 01 May, 2015, 09:09:13 am
.. which will include a 'bonus' day on Feb 29 ..    8)


[Are there UMCA rulez about 366 day years?? eg Miles will do one, but Kurt won't?]
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Oaky on 01 May, 2015, 09:13:15 am
.. which will include a 'bonus' day on Feb 29 ..    8)


[Are there UMCA rulez about 366 day years?? eg Miles will do one, but Kurt won't?]

UMCA HAM'R year is defined as 365 consecutive days.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 01 May, 2015, 09:17:57 am
Walter Greaves was given the record for 1936, which included a bonus Feb 29th. He did have the disadvantage of being one limb short of the usual four and losing a few days to delays in his new bike being delivered. Not that that would ever happen again.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 01 May, 2015, 02:22:32 pm
Been busy this week so hadn't noticed how Steve has upped his mileage to 100 miles per day one legged.

No, he's now firing on both cylinders, though presumably the left leg is still doing the bulk of the work.  It does suggest that his ankle is happy with the range of motion, which can only be a good sign.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: velovoice on 01 May, 2015, 05:02:56 pm
Been busy this week so hadn't noticed how Steve has upped his mileage to 100 miles per day one legged.

No, he's now firing on both cylinders, though presumably the left leg is still doing the bulk of the work.  It does suggest that his ankle is happy with the range of motion, which can only be a good sign.
I hesitate to comment without first tracking down my sources but I'm sure I saw a comment from one of his team this week saying his ankle is not very happy. And TG himself said on here a few days ago (which thread??) that he feels in need of physiotherapy. I hope that's being lined up sooner rather than later.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 May, 2015, 05:05:23 pm
Physio should have been happening for a while now, though I don't know if it actually is happening now.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Canardly on 01 May, 2015, 08:28:23 pm
Such things are legends made of.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 22 May, 2015, 09:26:57 pm
so is the attempt still going? just doing a bit of maths it's going to require an average of 241 miles a day for the rest of the year (ie until 31st Dec) for Steve to break it
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 22 May, 2015, 09:58:00 pm
so is the attempt still going? just doing a bit of maths it's going to require an average of 241 miles a day for the rest of the year (ie until 31st Dec) for Steve to break it

eek, that's ~390km...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 23 May, 2015, 05:39:01 am
That is still within the average implied by Steve's pessimistic schedule, if you look at jo's very informative chart.  It is a stupefying number that hardly seems possible. But those kind of distances were achieved by Godwin. Brings it home how hard this challenge always has been, doesn't it?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andrew531 on 23 May, 2015, 10:41:43 pm
Steve is going for it. Today tracker shows 236.07 miles. He's been doing longer rides at the weekend and then gradually upping the weekday rides.Hope the ankle is well. Looking like it won't be too long before we see a ride approaching 300 miles!!!!!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Climberruss on 23 May, 2015, 11:34:58 pm
Steve is going for it. Today tracker shows 236.07 miles. He's been doing longer rides at the weekend and then gradually upping the weekday rides.Hope the ankle is well. Looking like it won't be too long before we see a ride approaching 300 miles!!!!!

The ride he is on now will be nearly 400 miles - its a 600km audax ride.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 24 May, 2015, 10:58:18 am
So the required is almost a 400km each day, with a 400km recovery ride the next day no recovery ride, and repeat...  Mind is boggling again.

Go Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Justin(e) on 24 May, 2015, 03:31:49 pm
So the required is almost a 400km each day, with a 400km recovery ride the next day no recovery ride, and repeat...  Mind is boggling again.

Go Steve!

Go Steve indeed.

BUT ...
I really don't think it is constructive to speculate on an average of 400km/day for the rest of the year. 
Some day - perhaps in my lifetime - we'll see a sub 2hr marathon.  But this is the sub 1:50 equivalent.  Possible to maintain the pace for a couple of days but not humanely possible to keep up through summer, autumn and winter.

Matching Tommy Goodwin is pretty superhuman.  Shading the record is possible and probable if all things went well.  But smashing it to smithereens, is just not on the cards.  Some sanity please.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: The Seldom Killer on 24 May, 2015, 04:57:45 pm
To hell with sanity. Many of humanity's greatest achievements have been completed by flying in the face of sanity. We'll only know if someone can achieve the seemingly impossible by giving it a decent go.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 24 May, 2015, 05:05:06 pm
So the required is almost a 400km each day, with a 400km recovery ride the next day no recovery ride, and repeat...  Mind is boggling again.

Go Steve!

Go Steve indeed.

BUT ...
I really don't think it is constructive to speculate on an average of 400km/day for the rest of the year. 
Some day - perhaps in my lifetime - we'll see a sub 2hr marathon.  But this is the sub 1:50 equivalent.  Possible to maintain the pace for a couple of days but not humanely possible to keep up through summer, autumn and winter.

Matching Tommy Goodwin is pretty superhuman.  Shading the record is possible and probable if all things went well.  But smashing it to smithereens, is just not on the cards.  Some sanity please.

Interesting that you're so confident it's only possible to maintain an average over 400km/day for a couple of days. Tommy Godwin managed it for a couple of months straight in June and July - and even though his mileage fell off in August and September, that only dropped his 4-month average to 399.5km/day.

(In fact, a 308 mile day on May 31st tips his 123 day average back over the 400km mark - at 400.3 - astonishing.)

Tommy Godwin daily average
June 1939 (http://www.tommygodwin.com/1939-stats/june/): 255.37 miles/411km
July 1939 (http://www.tommygodwin.com/1939-stats/july/): 276.87 miles/445km
August 1939 (http://www.tommygodwin.com/1939-stats/august/): 237.65 miles/382km
September 1939 (http://www.tommygodwin.com/1939-stats/september/): 222.47 miles/358km
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 26 May, 2015, 01:41:07 pm
Quote
Miles is clearly insane and I just don't think any human is capable of doing what he's trying to do for 365 days without their body breaking down at some point.

Partially collapsed lung and chest infection. The body cannae take any more cap'n. GWS.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mzjo on 26 May, 2015, 08:38:08 pm
A point that seems to be getting forgotten is that Tommy Godwin was a 29yr old full time rider and racer in his prime; it is almost dismissive of his efforts to think that a couple of 50yr olds are competing at the same level of potential performance (not very well put but someone will understand I hope), even if endurance riders do hit their peak later in life than short distance riders (and on that score it is also interesting to note the extremely tender ages of some of the pioneering french diagonalists).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 27 May, 2015, 11:11:35 am
Steve isn't 50, but I definitely do take your point.

The 'bounce back' ability of a 29-year-old is far greater than someone over 40.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: wajcgac on 28 May, 2015, 06:44:09 pm
With the recent progress that Steve has made are we likely to see the start of a concurrent record attempt shortly?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 28 May, 2015, 06:58:37 pm
I'd not rule out a concurrent attempt starting 1st of July or August.  looking at Steve's lower target for June was 265 miles per day with July being 285 per day.  I doubt he would wish to start before he was up to speed (so to speak) on that basis
none of us doubt he will choose the best timing mindful of his proven track record!
G O    S T E V E

 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:-
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 28 May, 2015, 07:00:27 pm
ps  which 400 or 600 is he doing this weekend for PBP ???
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: wilkyboy on 28 May, 2015, 08:14:24 pm
ps  which 400 or 600 is he doing this weekend for PBP ???

Steve's already qualified: Asparagus & Strawberries 400 (http://aukweb.net/results/archive/2015/listevent/?Ride=15-901) (trice) and The Flatlands 600 (http://aukweb.net/results/archive/2015/listevent/?Ride=15-549) (upright with crutches) on consecutive weekends two weeks ago.  He re-rode The Flatlands last weekend for fun (upright without crutches)   :thumbsup:

I've no idea what he's riding this weekend.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 28 May, 2015, 08:16:20 pm
Riding the same event twice doesn't count. I make it that he has ridden 200, 400 and 600 qualifiers so far, so missing a 300+ BRM.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: wilkyboy on 28 May, 2015, 08:17:51 pm
Riding the same event twice doesn't count. I make it that he has ridden 200, 400 and 600 qualifiers so far.

Ah, my bad: I forgot he was a 300 short.  Surely they'll let him ride anyway as a multiple ancien?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 28 May, 2015, 08:19:12 pm
That is not a given. Hopefully he is looking at doing another qualifier, to do it properly.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mzjo on 28 May, 2015, 08:26:19 pm
Steve isn't 50, but I definitely do take your point.

The 'bounce back' ability of a 29-year-old is far greater than someone over 40.

Yes and I was thinking more of the two vénérables than of Steve who has demonstrated awesome rebound characteristics (although even there there is a logic to vets starting at 40).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 30 May, 2015, 09:51:39 pm
As Steve's recovery comes on leaps and bounds, will we soon be speaking about his Second current attempt?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tim Hall on 30 May, 2015, 10:50:34 pm
Idle back of envelope sums:

Steve's miles to date : 22279

That's more or less at the end of May

Looking at his published schedules, going with the 82835 first, June to December is scheduled to be 52285.  Add that to the mileage so far gives 74564, which is a shade under the 75065.

If we use the figures from the higher 87129 schedule, June to September is 54480. Add the mileage so far takes us to 76759.

Have I missed anything?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 31 May, 2015, 06:34:32 am
Looks in line with what jo's chart is suggesting.

Of course, both are just projections. It is possible Steve could force himself to ride further distances than originally planned when is gets to the back end of 2015.

Every day that Steve posts a sub 200 mile day, it is a large chunk out of his prospects of achieving Tommy's high water mark.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 31 May, 2015, 08:31:29 am
I'm just calculating Steve's daily required average for the rest of 2015 which is approaching 245miles

Kurt is piling in big rides right now but his required average is currently 208 against his ridden average of 201 so at this pace it will still be a couple of weeks before he is level with Tommy
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 31 May, 2015, 08:34:45 am
In case you missed it, the OYTT chart page (http://gicentre.org/oytt/) always shows the required daily average figure for each rider. It's at the bottom of the page in the column 'Min target (mpd)'.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tim Hall on 31 May, 2015, 09:50:07 am
In case you missed it, the OYTT chart page (http://gicentre.org/oytt/) always shows the required daily average figure for each rider. It's at the bottom of the page in the column 'Min target (mpd)'.
Yes I had missed it.  Thanks for poiting it out. (and thanks for all the visualisation goodness).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 31 May, 2015, 10:03:48 am
excellent job thanks jo  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 31 May, 2015, 11:15:40 am
So atm for the 2015 attempt Steve requires ~37mls or 60km/day more than Kurt's current projected min 207mls/day ~20mls/day more than TG's min of 225mls/day at this stage...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: recumbentim on 01 June, 2015, 04:51:24 pm
Thanks Jo and the most astounding thing to me is Kurt's average 17.6 overall . I know he uses a recumbent and must do flat loops but ??
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 01 June, 2015, 07:06:59 pm
Steve and his team need to make the distinction between the 'Tommy Godwin' record and the Ham'r. Once you do that everything becomes clearer and then you can start on a strategy.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 01 June, 2015, 07:34:27 pm
The problem with that is that when Steve does achieve the first HAMR 365 day record, although it'll be magnificent in its own right it'll be overshadowed if he hasn't passed 75k miles, and doubly so if Kurt is (a) significantly ahead and/or (b) on course to surpass 75k miles himself.

The thing that staggers me is that no matter how great the achievements of all HAMR participants so far, they are still behind the average needed across the year (even if ahead of TG's 1939 progress so far).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jacamo on 02 June, 2015, 01:40:13 am
Thanks Jo and the most astounding thing to me is Kurt's average 17.6 overall . I know he uses a recumbent and must do flat loops but ??

His moving average has got to be higher than that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 02 June, 2015, 06:39:40 am
I calculate the moving average by examining the distance moved every 5 minutes. If there has been more than 100m of movement, the period is counted as "moving" and the distance on the ground is used to calculate the average speed. It is true therefore that for a ride with lots of short stops of less than 5 minutes, the figure would underestimate a moving average figure displayed on the GPS. But the riding style of Kurt and Steve is such that this should be relatively rare.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jacamo on 02 June, 2015, 01:05:53 pm
Looks like calculating in that manner has had somewhat of an effect on the moving averages. According to UMCA ( if they're to be believed) Kurt has an 18.7 moving average, a 1.1mph difference.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: geraldc on 05 June, 2015, 05:20:15 pm
All the press is on the hour event this weekend. You'd have thought they could spare a few column inches for the event that lasts 8760 times longer.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 06 June, 2015, 08:20:31 am
They do have 8760 times longer to cover it  :facepalm:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 12 June, 2015, 01:17:21 pm
So, what is Steve's current plan: still to re-start on 1 July?
It's not on his website, or anywhere else obvious.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: notlobgp14 on 14 June, 2015, 08:34:40 am
So, what is Steve's current plan: still to re-start on 1 July?
It's not on his website, or anywhere else obvious.

Agree with above, and other posts up thread; there doesn't seem to be any obvious rational behind the current mileages, I'm sure the team and Steve know Exactly what they are doing but it is becoming increasingly frustrating that we don't.

I also can't see how 'low level' information, or whatever the term was, is Bad for the record attempt?  There are a lot of us contributing to, and in effect have 'shares' in Steve's attempt.  That's not to say we need input but a bit of information would be good.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Marmitegeoff on 14 June, 2015, 10:54:21 am
I tend to disagree,   I think that Steve and team do have a plan but they are in competition with two others.   It is a competition and Steve gave away an advantage at the start by publishing a plan, so that one of the competitors could copy it. and then ride a few more miles a day than Steve each and every day.   I feel that Steve is much better keeping his powder dry and not publishing plans.   It is enough that the competitors can see what he is doing day by day.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 14 June, 2015, 10:56:20 am
C'mon folks it's not that hard, Steve isn't where he needs to be at this time of year I.E ~98% fitness (He needs 100% in July, boy does he need 100%)

Regardless when he restarts he will follow his plan all be it with a different start point.  Steve spent years developing his plan, he'll follow it.  That means to start now he would need to be able to cover 265 (lower schedule) or 284 (upper) miles per day.  Steve managed 280 once recently, no other ride has reached his June lower target.  It took 19 hours to do those 280 miles leaving 5 hours for end of day food, shower and sleep.  His schedules require he complete the distance in 16-18 hours leaving a more reasonable 6-8 hours per day.  I would guess he'll be targetting the fastest pace on days of a fair wind.  6-8 hours a night is damn hard but much more sustainable than 5 per day.

As Steve's fitness, demonstrated by his speed, matches his schedule then he'll be in a position to restart.  I have my doubts that will be any time soon.  He could probably take a few weeks off the bike and still ramp up to meet the descending requirement in late summer but that's not Steve is it?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 15 June, 2015, 12:20:49 pm
I tend to disagree,   I think that Steve and team do have a plan but they are in competition with two others.   It is a competition and Steve gave away an advantage at the start by publishing a plan, so that one of the competitors could copy it. and then ride a few more miles a day than Steve each and every day.   I feel that Steve is much better keeping his powder dry and not publishing plans.   It is enough that the competitors can see what he is doing day by day.

You've been riding round those battlefields again Geoff?

Steve should 'Reset to zero' on 30th June, I reckon. He's back up to some 'target hitting' distances now.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Grandad on 19 June, 2015, 04:24:31 pm
From another cycling forum
Quote
Lack of info just could be a reason that donations appear to have dried up.

Is this correct - I hope not
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 19 June, 2015, 04:46:04 pm
From another cycling forum
Quote
Lack of info just could be a reason that donations appear to have dried up.

Is this correct - I hope not
At this stage, its just a rumour spread by you!

HTH ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Delph Cyclist on 19 June, 2015, 06:34:20 pm
From another cycling forum
Quote
Lack of info just could be a reason that donations appear to have dried up.

Is this correct - I hope not
At this stage, its just a rumour spread by you!

I know for a fact that there was a recent donation from A Pair of Kirtons, so things are still moving on.  A lot of AUK members are also chipping in every time they enter an event.  I'm sure we would hear something if the coffers were empty
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hellymedic on 19 June, 2015, 06:47:09 pm
Several people donate by regular Direct Debit.
There's no new donation with this but the money still rolls in.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 19 June, 2015, 08:39:16 pm
Indeed. It would be most surprising if new donations were coming in at the same rate that they were 6 months ago. The old donations continue to roll in, I would imagine.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MikeFromLFE on 19 June, 2015, 11:09:27 pm
I went to a talk today at Eroica Brittania on the subject of Walter Greave's record - and quite naturally the subject of Steve's attempt came up.
The speaker (whose name I have mislaid) made a couple of observations that I disagree with but, I think hearing dissenting voices can be interesting:
1) Steve needs to considerably up his mph in order not to get into serious sleep deficit or fall behind on his miles
2) -and this is more interesting - that any record not set January- December will be discredited by history as all previous records have been set that way - thus negating a July restart.

The speaker was fairly certain that Steve would 'fail' in his record attempt. Sod that - he's a hero already in my eyes.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Derek on 19 June, 2015, 11:50:08 pm
I actually think its going to be vey hard to break the record in the UK, the weather and road conditions do not help. Steve has already proved that staying safe over the course of a year is difficult, he didn't last 3 months.

Having said that I hope he does it. Having spoken to him briefly a few months ago his determination is certainly there although the challenge is certainly very tough.

The jan to dec record would certainly be the ideal one to go for, but if it has to be July to June then so be it, Steve has to take what oppotunities there are.

Its a tough call but I hope Steve does it over whatever period he chooses.

At the end of the day he cycles more miles in a week than I did last year, although I am trying to put that right this year.

Derek

GO STEVE
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Justin(e) on 20 June, 2015, 05:20:45 am
2) -and this is more interesting - that any record not set January- December will be discredited by history as all previous records have been set that way - thus negating a July restart.

There is certainly an aesthetic reassurance about the timing of an event with the calendar.

But if you look at other sports, you can see that there is wriggle room.  Both golf and tennis have grand slams that can be performed in a calendar year.  There is no discredit in holding all four trophies even if it is not in the same year - I grant you there is an element of frisson when it does coincide.

On a lesser note, there is also the category of career grand slam.  So you may be right, but I think that whoever cycles the furtherest in 365 days will get the nod of history whether it is aligned with the western, mayan or Hindu calendar.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 20 June, 2015, 07:41:01 am
... then there are hat-tricks in cricket. they have to be 3 consecutive deliveries - but of course a bowler only gets 6 balls-per-over.

So you can extend them into your next over. Or innings. Or match ... which might be 2 years later! This is the definition accepted across the sport.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 20 June, 2015, 08:10:19 am
Apparently Merv Hughes took a hat-trick in three different overs, two innings and two days, against the West Indies.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Justin(e) on 20 June, 2015, 05:50:46 pm
Or innings. Or match ...

AIUI Yes to Innings.

No to match
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: contango on 20 June, 2015, 05:59:30 pm
I went to a talk today at Eroica Brittania on the subject of Walter Greave's record - and quite naturally the subject of Steve's attempt came up.
The speaker (whose name I have mislaid) made a couple of observations that I disagree with but, I think hearing dissenting voices can be interesting:
1) Steve needs to considerably up his mph in order not to get into serious sleep deficit or fall behind on his miles
2) -and this is more interesting - that any record not set January- December will be discredited by history as all previous records have been set that way - thus negating a July restart.

The speaker was fairly certain that Steve would 'fail' in his record attempt. Sod that - he's a hero already in my eyes.

Whatever has been done in history, if you work with 365 consecutive days you have to deal with January and December, and whether they are at the start/end or in the middle makes little difference. If you could choose 365 non-consecutive days there's an obvious advantage to doing stupidly long rides when it's "not too hot, not too cold".

As to whether Steve succeeds or fails in his record attempt nobody can deny that it's a hell of an achievement to do what he's done.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 20 June, 2015, 10:31:36 pm
My current thoughts about the record attempt are dominated by awe and wonder - the two yardsticks for primary school religious teaching.

I would have said that the task ahead for Steve to break the record on his current attempt is just too much. However, Steve thinks he can do it so who am I to argue? Time will tell. Good luck Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 22 June, 2015, 09:39:31 am
I went to a talk today at Eroica Brittania on the subject of Walter Greave's record - and quite naturally the subject of Steve's attempt came up.
The speaker (whose name I have mislaid) made a couple of observations that I disagree with but, I think hearing dissenting voices can be interesting:
1) Steve needs to considerably up his mph in order not to get into serious sleep deficit or fall behind on his miles
2) -and this is more interesting - that any record not set January- December will be discredited by history as all previous records have been set that way - thus negating a July restart.

The speaker was fairly certain that Steve would 'fail' in his record attempt. Sod that - he's a hero already in my eyes.

What odds was he offering, or wasn't he prepared to 'put his money where his ( big ) mouth is'?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 22 June, 2015, 09:46:23 am
“January” and “December” are simply names on a page in a book.

Steve can attempt the record ‘Summer solstice to Summer solstice’.

His attempt starts today.
 ;) :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Justin(e) on 22 June, 2015, 12:56:09 pm
What odds was he offering, or wasn't he prepared to 'put his money where his ( big ) mouth is'?

A secondary market in establishing the odds of success would certainly be interesting.

Whilst my heart is definitely with Steve, I think it highly unlikely that he will hold the HAM'R record at this attempt.  My rationale is that time trials are all about consistency.  And the crash has made smooth milages impossible.  Even now there is a large degree of bumpiness in the daily distances.

At this stage Kurt looks like a really solid bet.  But continuing the cricketing metaphor above, if this was a one day match, the team batting first has the runs on the board and that is a huge advantage.  I reckon you'd have to favour Tommy to come out on top at the end.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 22 June, 2015, 03:59:43 pm
If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was. The fact that he managed 361 miles on 21 June - which I think is more than any of the current aspirants have achieved on any single day - signifies how intent he was on setting the record beyond any meaningful competition which could be envisaged in those days. Kurt, Steve and Miles are all exceptional - no, beyond exceptional - cyclists, and it's by no means certain that any of them will exceed Tommy's total. Kurt's looking most likely right now, but Steve and Miles' experiences have shown how easily things can be derailed. My admiration for all of them is immense. I just hope that they all achieve enough to feel that they've done their best.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 22 June, 2015, 04:43:33 pm
If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was.

That.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Morrisette on 23 June, 2015, 08:45:23 am
If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was.

That.

+1.

361 miles in ONE day?? We are all sure that Tommy Godwin wasn't an android sent from the future to stop John Connor being born and ensure the machines will take over the world set an actual unbeatable record? (not that I think it is unbeatable...my current thought on the attempt is that Steve can still do it).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 23 June, 2015, 08:59:16 am
Godwin was assisted in his rides by the Raleigh record beating team, who had been at their endeavours for two years, backed by the largest cycle company in the world. The year record included pacing.

Quote
To prove the new hub to the “speedman”, Raleigh-Sturmey Archer engaged Charlies Holland, Bert James and Sid Ferris to undertake a series of long distance rides on Raleigh Record Aces with AR hubs to beat the records then held by derailleur-equipped machines starting in summer 1937. On 3 June Ferris did Edinburgh-London in 20 hours 19 minutes, besting the previous record by 1 ½ hours and 20 July Land’s End to John O’Groats in 2 days 6 hours 33 minutes, beating Opperman’s time by 2 hours 28 minutes and standing for 21 years. When his June Edinburgh-London record was disallowed because of a rule violation by a assistant rider that October, the opportunity was seized to try again that month and Ferris broke the record again despite riding 15 hours of it in the dark and also proving the worth of another new (1936) Sturmey-Archer innovation, the 12 v. dynohub lighting system.

On 19 March 1938 Bert James cut 9 mins. 53 secs. off the 100-mile record on an RRA with AR hub, clocking 3 hours 45 mins and 51 secs. for an average speed of 27 mph. That year Sid Ferris capped his remarkable career breaking the RRA 24-hour record at 465.75 miles from Edinburgh to the South Coast, again using a Record Ace with the AR hub and Dynohub. That year, Charles Holland, riding for Raleigh/Sturmey-Archer, broke the RRA record for Liverpool-Edinburgh in June, clocking 10 hours for the 210 miles, 12 minutes faster than the previous record held by Frank Southall. On 13 October 1938 he dropped 25 minutes off the Land’s End-London record, doing the 287 miles in 13 hours 44 minutes at an average 21 mph despite hours of rain and four punctures en route riding the new Charles Holland Continental model of the RRA (see below) with an AM hub. Another RRA with AR hub record run was Bert James’ London-Portsmouth roundtrip (137 miles) clocked at 8 hours, 33 minutes and 57 seconds despite poor weather and punctures.

http://threespeedhub.com/pre-war-raleigh-record-ace-rra/
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 23 June, 2015, 09:02:05 am
If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was.

That.

+1.

361 miles in ONE day?? We are all sure that Tommy Godwin wasn't an android sent from the future to stop John Connor being born and ensure the machines will take over the world set an actual unbeatable record? (not that I think it is unbeatable...my current thought on the attempt is that Steve can still do it).

I hope you'll forgive me if I express some doubt that Steve will beat Tommy's record, at least in the current attempt (Jan-Dec 2015). I believe that his broken ankle - not unreasonably! - has made such a dent in his efforts that it's now unfair to expect him to average the 250+ miles per day he needs to for the rest of the year. Every day he rides less than 250 miles increases the pressure - yesterday was 'just' 132. I think it's time for us to accept that whatever total Steve achieves in 2015, it will probably be less than the 75k Tommy did, but will still have been an amazing effort. If - as was mooted a while back - Steve restarts the challenge then we should, as he will, treat that as an entirely separate endeavour.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 23 June, 2015, 09:40:55 am
+1 to TimC.

It's a tough call to make, because resting up in advance of a Miles-style reboot is going to dent progress towards the 100,000 mile record that Steve may have had an eye on.  He is obviously capable of knocking out 260-280 mile rides now, but they're being wasted if he doesn't count them towards the reboot record.  And, IANASportsScientist, but I don't think that he needs to put in the miles for 'training', either.  One thing's for sure - if/when he starts again (officially), he needs to hit the ground (bad choice of words) running riding.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 23 June, 2015, 10:23:59 am
I have been otherwise committed in the last 2 weeks - and have only just caught up with this thread - but noticed that a few days ago there were posts about the cash position.

I am sure that you will understand that I am not going to be specific about the position , but as far as i am aware since the accident not a single standing order has been cancelled or amended. There are still one off donations from individuals and from audax events coming in and the occasional new standing order, sometimes for an amount that I would describe as very generous.

You would not expect to hear much about the money side if all is looking OK, after all it is the miles that matter not the money.

So here is the best I can do to provide a modicum of comfort  -....     I am sleeping well at night !!
Roger

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: tonyh on 23 June, 2015, 10:26:31 am
 :thumbsup:    Many thanks, FB.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mcshroom on 23 June, 2015, 10:27:15 am
Good to hear :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 23 June, 2015, 10:33:38 am


Plus 1   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Marmitegeoff on 23 June, 2015, 11:14:15 am
Many Thanks FB.   I feel sure that if the situation were otherwise then some small hints would start appearing.   Glad you are sleeping well.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tim Hall on 23 June, 2015, 03:23:03 pm
A news letter has flooded in. Not from Mrs Trellis of North Wales but from Steve's team.  Excellent stuff. Keep on keeping us informed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Vince on 23 June, 2015, 05:10:17 pm
Mrs Trellis' URL: http://us9.campaign-archive1.com/?u=f184c841a68a86ce82d222948&id=87cc69a110 (http://us9.campaign-archive1.com/?u=f184c841a68a86ce82d222948&id=87cc69a110)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 23 June, 2015, 05:16:26 pm
I particularly liked:

Quote
Who are you competing against Tommy Godwin or Kurt Searvogel?
 
Neither. I’m just trying to do as many miles as I can and pass Godwin’s total. I’m not competing against him - as he’s not here - and I’m riding under different conditions.

 :thumbsup:  GO STEVE!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 05 July, 2015, 12:21:04 pm
The graph on Jo's website seems to suggest Steve is not yet consistently able to achieve the daily distances needed to get to 75,000 miles in 2015.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 05 July, 2015, 01:42:49 pm
Given that there have been a number of ~205mile rides recently, it could be that Steve has already started a new/concurrent attempt...  Just speculation.

Go Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 05 July, 2015, 01:53:17 pm
Given that there have been a number of ~205mile rides recently, it could be that Steve has already started a new/concurrent attempt...  Just speculation.

Go Steve!
Yes, that seems a sound speculation!

IIRC the last target figure to catch-up was over 240miles-a-day? He's a long way off that recently.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: wajcgac on 05 July, 2015, 02:01:13 pm
From Steves facebook page -

Quote
Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end. He realises the 'audacity' of the task, but at this point he's still willing to give it everything he has. He is likely to start running a concurrent (new) record attempt next month, so that he still gives himself a full 12 months to see what he is truly capable of. That's the plan thus far. Regards, Steve's Support Team.

No login required

https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015 (https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015)

Good to see that the concurrent attempt is still in the pipeline.

Go Steve !
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 05 July, 2015, 03:30:08 pm
Has it been confirmed that the UCMA will accept concurrent attempts by an athlete?

In any case, if Steve is to have a chance of taking the record, he needs to get the big miles in consistently while the weather is good - as he recognised with his high/low schedules. He doesn't have the benefit of good winter weather that Kurt was able to take advantage of, and maintaining the average record pace of 205+mpd in a UK winter is asking a great deal. So, whether the original attempt continues or this becomes a new attempt from some date in the near future, Steve needs to be racking up those 240+mpd efforts while the weather's good and the days are long. It isn't happening, and that worries me.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 05 July, 2015, 04:29:58 pm
From Steves facebook page -

Quote
Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end. He realises the 'audacity' of the task, but at this point he's still willing to give it everything he has. He is likely to start running a concurrent (new) record attempt next month, so that he still gives himself a full 12 months to see what he is truly capable of. That's the plan thus far. Regards, Steve's Support Team.

No login required

https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015 (https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015)

Good to see that the concurrent attempt is still in the pipeline.

Go Steve !

Thanks!

Hidden in a comment - took me some time to find it despite being directed there by your post.

Looks like 19 months elapsed if starting again on 1st August.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: wajcgac on 05 July, 2015, 05:12:23 pm
Has it been confirmed that the UCMA will accept concurrent attempts by an athlete?

I guess Miles would be a good person to ask about this as he has restarted his attempt but may know if his original attempt is effectively still running as well. I think he may have other things more pressing to attend to though.

So, whether the original attempt continues or this becomes a new attempt from some date in the near future, Steve needs to be racking up those 240+mpd efforts while the weather's good and the days are long. It isn't happening, and that worries me.

I'm hoping that this is because he is still getting up to full fitness, rather than he is not capable of doing so when fully fit. I'm sure this is why he is waiting another month before any potential restart - he needs to be at his peak otherwise his new attempt would be compromised immediately.

Steve looked to be well on target before the incident with the moped rider. He was nearly 2700 miles up on Tommy on the 28th March when it happened and I think he would have increased this for a further 2 months as Tommy didn't really get going till June.

We don't know if Steve could have matched the huge mileage in the summer months without the injury but he had a buffer to work with and I think he would have gained more miles later in the year.

Only after 12 months of Steve cycling fully fit will we know the reality.

However, if he is determined to beat Tommy's record and hold the record of the highest mileage ridden in a year - regardless of UMCA age category he may well find that the bar has been set higher by Kurt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 06 July, 2015, 12:31:26 pm
Recent statements by Steve suggest he thinks he can still do it. I think that's probably a bit too optimistic; he's around 8000 miles below the cumulative average mileage and about 5500 miles behind Tommy's curve. With 179 days to go, that means he needs to average around 30 miles a day more than Tommy, or about 250 miles every day for the rest of the year. If he follows Tommy's curve but does that 30 miles a day more, he'd need to be doing something well over 300 miles a day now. That just doesn't seem likely.

If, on the other hand, Steve restarts the challenge on some date in the near future, he has to either equal Tommy's daily mileage or hope he can significantly beat it through the winter period to allow a more achievable target in the remaining summer months. That seems a lot more do-able - he was about 3000 miles ahead of Tommy when the accident happened. An out-of-the-gate daily figure of 220-230 miles a day from, say, 1 August followed by a winter of 180-200 mpd, then racking up next summer to 220-230 again would see him past the 75k - but, as you say, not necessarily beyond Kurt's total!

It remains fascinating whichever route Steve decides to take, and I continue to wish him all success.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Oakhambike on 06 July, 2015, 03:19:59 pm
Agree with previous post though I was thinking that a 1st September re-start more likely than 1st August - but most of all GOOD LUCK Steve.

Wondering about the huge mileages Tommy did  through the Summer of '39 - do we know whether these were the result of time on the bike and not much sleep or due to higher speed? If the latter I wonder if being paced had a big effect for Tommy ?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Salvatore on 06 July, 2015, 05:24:31 pm
Agree with previous post though I was thinking that a 1st September re-start more likely than 1st August - but most of all GOOD LUCK Steve.

Wondering about the huge mileages Tommy did  through the Summer of '39 - do we know whether these were the result of time on the bike and not much sleep or due to higher speed? If the latter I wonder if being paced had a big effect for Tommy ?

Both organised pacing and very long days according to an article in the Western Daily Press on August 10 1939:

The whole article:
(http://i.imgur.com/eyIUfT9.jpg)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Climberruss on 06 July, 2015, 09:23:37 pm
I have been watching this contest/duel between Kurt and Steve with huge interest from the start. Both are exceptional rides ( I have met them both). However, as good as they may be, neither is getting anywhere close to the monstrous daily mileages that Tommy put in. Given the era that this attempt happened and the non-existance of doping rules at the time, is it just possible that dear old Tommy was dropping a snifter of Pot Belge (or something similar) every day?  Just a thought.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 07 July, 2015, 08:42:51 am
Highly unlikely.

Tommy was paced in a peloton.

Actually, given that relatives of Tommy get to hear what is being said (and have been vocally supportive of Steve), I think you should delete your groundless accusation.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 July, 2015, 10:20:36 am
Yes a groundless accusation which should be removed with all possible haste
 :facepalm:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: The French Tandem on 07 July, 2015, 11:27:12 am
I do not think that we should crucify Mr Climberruss. Let's put things into their context.  Although doping is recognized now as a form of cheating, no one have accuse Tommy of cheating in any way. It is just that the acceptability of doping in 1939 was not what it is now.  Remember than not so long ago, it was perfectly acceptable to drive a car after drinking alcohol, or to smoke in public venues.

I have read a very old version of the Tour de France rules, probably circa 1910, I can't find out the exact reference, but one of the rules was: "Les produits fortifiants ne seront pas fournis par l'organisateur". The "produits fortifiants" are what we would call dope today, they were not explicitly prohibited, they were just not provided by the organizer!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 07 July, 2015, 11:43:46 am
I have been watching this contest/duel between Kurt and Steve with huge interest from the start. Both are exceptional rides ( I have met them both). However, as good as they may be, neither is getting anywhere close to the monstrous daily mileages that Tommy put in. Given the era that this attempt happened and the non-existance of doping rules at the time, is it just possible that dear old Tommy was dropping a snifter of Pot Belge (or something similar) every day?  Just a thought.

I'll defend you on this one Climberruss. You are a brave man to make this suggestion; and I think you could be not far from the truth. Amphetamines were available over the counter until September 1939.

In 1937 - 39, my uncle rode for the RAF out of Cosford, Shrops. They rode 250 miles per day 'just for a day out to Skeggy'.
Another uncle who recalled his elder brother's exploits, told of a day on a bike from Birmingham to Rhyl and back. On the return, my uncle who survived the war told me he was offered a 'little pep-me-up' by one of the RAF riders.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 07 July, 2015, 12:16:14 pm
Reading the various references on here and elsewhere, Godwin's effort was a full-on professional competitive venture with major support including pacemen. It was pretty much the equivalent of Team Sky doing it now! As a professional racing cyclist with over 200 road and TT victories, Tommy was likely no stranger to the various concoctions openly used to fuel pro riders of the time. So, yes, he probably used stuff you can't use now. But that is not to suggest he cheated by the rules that applied at the time.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 07 July, 2015, 12:35:27 pm
I'll defend you on this one Climberruss. You are a brave man to make this suggestion; and I think you could be not far from the truth. Amphetamines were available over the counter until September 1939.

And after September 1939 they were routinely handed out to combatants on both sides.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 07 July, 2015, 12:39:37 pm
So the modern day equivalent of Tommy’s approach would be for two or three fast cyclists to pace Steve for fifty mile sections.
Five teams of two riders who go out to a location and ride to another fifty miles away, then have to return home to recuperate for the next day is a jolly grand undertaking of logistics and organisation in its own right.
Which means at least ten fully financed ‘domestiques’ on the road 365 continuous days.
At a salary of £480 per week ( to pluck a number out of the air ), that amounts to £250,000 to support the 10 team members.

Where is a ‘modern day’ attempt organisation going to get that kind of cash? Unless I am ignorantly naïve of Steve’s financial status.  :o
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 07 July, 2015, 12:40:42 pm
I'll defend you on this one Climberruss. You are a brave man to make this suggestion; and I think you could be not far from the truth. Amphetamines were available over the counter until September 1939.

And after September 1939 they were routinely handed out to combatants on both sides.

Yes. Along with those pills that gave one the droop.  ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 07 July, 2015, 12:53:09 pm
Surely that was bromide in the Tea?

Quote from: Spike Milligan
I don’t think the bromide had any lasting effect, the only way to stop a BRITISH soldier feeling randy is to load bromide into a 300-pound shell and fire it at him from the waist down.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 07 July, 2015, 01:33:04 pm
While amphetamines were not illegal to use in Tommy's day, they are viewed very differently now.

I can see this being repeated as "Well he only managed it because of doping". A few repetitions of that and it is taken as 'fact'.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 07 July, 2015, 01:34:37 pm
So the modern day equivalent of Tommy’s approach would be for two or three fast cyclists to pace Steve for fifty mile sections.
Five teams of two riders who go out to a location and ride to another fifty miles away, then have to return home to recuperate for the next day is a jolly grand undertaking of logistics and organisation in its own right.
Which means at least ten fully financed ‘domestiques’ on the road 365 continuous days.
At a salary of £480 per week ( to pluck a number out of the air ), that amounts to £250,000 to support the 10 team members.

Where is a ‘modern day’ attempt organisation going to get that kind of cash? Unless I am ignorantly naïve of Steve’s financial status.  :o

It's worth re-reading the Western Daily Press article in Salvatore's post above (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=90295.msg1887000#msg1887000) that makes it clear that they had stopped pacing Godwin (and Bennett) by August. Godwin's professional support from Raleigh only started in April/May so while significant, the opportunity for professional pacing only lasted for three months or so.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 07 July, 2015, 01:54:59 pm
Changing tack slightly and looking at Steve's recent routes I'd have to say that his attempt is looking a bit Washed up.   :facepalm:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Malmesbury Monk on 07 July, 2015, 02:30:23 pm
In the absence of any evidence to suggest that Tommy personally used any substances, regardless of the fact that others at that time might have done, it would be grossly unfair to assume that he must have as well. Tommy isn't here to defend himself and this speculation serves no purpose whatsoever particularly within the context of whether Steve or anyone else can beat Tommy's record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 07 July, 2015, 02:31:58 pm
So the modern day equivalent of Tommy’s approach would be for two or three fast cyclists to pace Steve for fifty mile sections.
Five teams of two riders who go out to a location and ride to another fifty miles away, then have to return home to recuperate for the next day is a jolly grand undertaking of logistics and organisation in its own right.
Which means at least ten fully financed ‘domestiques’ on the road 365 continuous days.
At a salary of £480 per week ( to pluck a number out of the air ), that amounts to £250,000 to support the 10 team members.

Where is a ‘modern day’ attempt organisation going to get that kind of cash? Unless I am ignorantly naïve of Steve’s financial status.  :o

It's worth re-reading the Western Daily Press article in Salvatore's post above (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=90295.msg1887000#msg1887000) that makes it clear that they had stopped pacing Godwin (and Bennett) by August. Godwin's professional support from Raleigh only started in April/May so while significant, the opportunity for professional pacing only lasted for three months or so.

I think the point is, Jo, that there are many differences between the two TGs' attempts and that 'our' TG is doing it with rather fewer contemporary advantages than were made available to Tommy, notwithstanding the rather better bikes he's using. IMO, that makes Steve's (and Kurt's) efforts more amazing rather than less!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 07 July, 2015, 02:48:57 pm
So the modern day equivalent of Tommy’s approach would be for two or three fast cyclists to pace Steve for fifty mile sections.
Five teams of two riders who go out to a location and ride to another fifty miles away, then have to return home to recuperate for the next day is a jolly grand undertaking of logistics and organisation in its own right.
Which means at least ten fully financed ‘domestiques’ on the road 365 continuous days.
At a salary of £480 per week ( to pluck a number out of the air ), that amounts to £250,000 to support the 10 team members.

Where is a ‘modern day’ attempt organisation going to get that kind of cash? Unless I am ignorantly naïve of Steve’s financial status.  :o

It's worth re-reading the Western Daily Press article in Salvatore's post above (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=90295.msg1887000#msg1887000) that makes it clear that they had stopped pacing Godwin (and Bennett) by August. Godwin's professional support from Raleigh only started in April/May so while significant, the opportunity for professional pacing only lasted for three months or so.

But what months they were!

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttYearWeek1.png)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Climberruss on 07 July, 2015, 03:00:15 pm
While amphetamines were not illegal to use in Tommy's day, they are viewed very differently now.

I can see this being repeated as "Well he only managed it because of doping". A few repetitions of that and it is taken as 'fact'.

Nobody is saying this mrcharly. Only you. Don't put words into my mouth.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 07 July, 2015, 03:11:10 pm
While amphetamines were not illegal to use in Tommy's day, they are viewed very differently now.

I can see this being repeated as "Well he only managed it because of doping". A few repetitions of that and it is taken as 'fact'.

Nobody is saying this mrcharly. Only you. Don't put words into my mouth.

"He only managed it with 'pep-me-up-pills' legally available at the time."

Similar to what I did to get my dissertation finished....  ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Climberruss on 07 July, 2015, 03:12:45 pm
First time I've come back to this thread since my post.

With regard to Arry-R and mrcharly, I am not making accusations, merely raising a discussion point. Back then doping was almost universal with the chief substances being Pot Belge and Amphetamines. Today it is generally accepted but still taboo to talk about the fact that Sean Kelly and Eddy Merckx were doping and yet it's fine to have a go (me included) at a certain Texan.

With regard to Malmesbury Monk -  "it would be grossly unfair to assume that he must have as well." - I am not assuming, merely raising a discussion point.

From Salvatores post - "that makes it clear that they had stopped pacing Godwin (and Bennett) by August." - this may be far more interesting as these are precisely the months when Tommy put in his biggest rides. Post August, his daily mileage dropped off quite noticably.

At least we know two things..Steve and Kurt and Miles are doing this thing fairly and clean.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 07 July, 2015, 03:47:57 pm
You started suggesting he was taking drugs.

You have no evidence and it is not possible for anyone to disprove it.

I regard this as a shoddy accusation. Own your own words.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 July, 2015, 04:28:26 pm
Here here!
 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 07 July, 2015, 05:44:28 pm
You started suggesting he was taking drugs.

You have no evidence and it is not possible for anyone to disprove it.

I regard this as a shoddy accusation. Own your own words.

In the context of that era and the way that Russ put his point across I'd say it was about fair - certainly not shoddy.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 07 July, 2015, 06:18:25 pm
First time I've come back to this thread since my post.

With regard to Arry-R and mrcharly, I am not making accusations, merely raising a discussion point. Back then doping was almost universal with the chief substances being Pot Belge and Amphetamines. Today it is generally accepted but still taboo to talk about the fact that Sean Kelly and Eddy Merckx were doping and yet it's fine to have a go (me included) at a certain Texan.
I agree.

And because noone frowned on drug use at the time,  I see it as completely fair.

There are plenty of advantages available to the riders in the 2 eras - its all part of the intrigue. :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 07 July, 2015, 06:21:49 pm
Surely that was bromide in the Tea?

Quote from: Spike Milligan
I don’t think the bromide had any lasting effect, the only way to stop a BRITISH soldier feeling randy is to load bromide into a 300-pound shell and fire it at him from the waist down.


Excellent Milligan quote Mr Larrington  :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 07 July, 2015, 07:54:58 pm
You started suggesting he was taking drugs.

You have no evidence and it is not possible for anyone to disprove it.

I regard this as a shoddy accusation. Own your own words.

Why shoddy? I would have thought that it would be perfectly reasonable to assume that Tommy used the stimulants openly and commonly used in pro cycling at the time. He was a pro cyclist, after all. Thae fact that they are now illegal is irrelevant. It would be more surprising if he did not use them.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 07 July, 2015, 08:04:28 pm
Anyway....

Not that it matters one iota, but my current view is that Steve is not going to get exceed Tommy's total in 2015.  Too big an ask, through no fault of his own (pesky moped drunkards etc etc).  I look forward to his future record attempt, which his currently sporadic longer mileage days will help prepare him for.  (My interest has waned as Steve's chances of pulling this out of the bag have become more and more unrealistic).

Kurt looks likely to exceed Tommy's total if he stays injury free.  He's consistent, I'll give him that.  Simple plan, well executed.

Miles is an enigma.  I have no idea what he will end up doing.  Which makes him jolly interesting.  But if I'm honest I'm not really following him closely because of the separation in start time between him and Steve/Kurt.

Tommy Godwin looks down on events smug in the knowledge that the mark he set is f**king hard to beat.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mzjo on 07 July, 2015, 09:13:43 pm
re OYTT and the fact that T Godwin was a senior or (now) elite racer surely our current competitors should be classed as vets and have a standard distance for the record. I think Kurt may well be ahead on standard by a good bit - but anyone like to suggest what the standard distances would be, if it really were a One Year Time Trial?

Of course they might all (including Mr Godwin) be disqualified for taking pace  :D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 07 July, 2015, 09:30:04 pm
All this discussion indicates that we are not comparing like with like. Steve has demonstrated, as has Kurt, that as solo riders they can keep pace with Tommy's record - up to the point at which he was paced by pros. His effort clearly tailed off after the end of October, which (possibly) means that he felt he had done enough, or that wartime blackout conditions made riding huge daily distances harder. Is there any record anywhere which indicates which it was?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 07 July, 2015, 10:27:03 pm
I would have thought that amphetamines would be pretty useless for an event like this. They might allow you to do a few all-nighters, or give a temporary boost, but there's always payback later. Riding day in, day out, the payback would far outweigh the benefit.

As the man Obree says, TTing is not about going fast, it's about not going slow.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 07 July, 2015, 11:27:32 pm
All this discussion indicates that we are not comparing like with like. Steve has demonstrated, as has Kurt, that as solo riders they can keep pace with Tommy's record - up to the point at which he was paced by pros. His effort clearly tailed off after the end of October, which (possibly) means that he felt he had done enough, or that wartime blackout conditions made riding huge daily distances harder. Is there any record anywhere which indicates which it was?
I think a combination of the withdrawal of the pacemen/cars, the lack of daylight and the blackout and the weather (though I think the autumn of '39 was fairly benign, was it not?) all quite reasonably conspired to bring the daily miles down from the dizzy heights of June/July.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 July, 2015, 11:31:41 pm
We can never know if Godwin took speed. It's probable that he would have encountered it in transport cafes in the form of Benzedrine, as lorry drivers used it to complete their journeys. Artists used it too.

Quote
Of course, bennies had a tendency to ruin the body of the person using them. Auden's death from heart failure at age 66 was, to a considerable extent, a result of his decades of practicing, with the connivance of his doctors, "the chemical life.
http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/04/the-lost-world-of-benzedrine/255904/
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 08 July, 2015, 10:29:28 pm
I have to say that, given that Steve is ratcheting up some prodigious distances at the moment, it would seem like a good time to launch a concurrent attempt.

I have been hunting around for the UMCA rules on such things, but have been unable to find them. Anyones google-fu better than mine?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 08 July, 2015, 10:35:30 pm
I'm not sure I'm worried about the record.  If Steve keeps doing a little over 200 miles a day average he will clock up between 65,000 and 75,000 miles in a year which is a mindblowing achievement, more than most on this forum will achieve in their lifetime, and more than anyone else apart from Tommy Godwin has achieved before.  I will keep watching his progress in awe. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 08 July, 2015, 10:40:22 pm
But it's in order to break the record that Steve started this crazy thing. I'm assuming that is what he still wants to do.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 08 July, 2015, 10:51:37 pm
200 miles average per day for the remains of the year would give him about 66,000. To reach 75,000 he now has to do 250 miles per day. There's quite a difference in effort and organisation required between those two, especially as he approaches winter. In audax money it's the difference between doing a slightly over distance 300 or a 400 ~every day for six months~.

It also seems likely that Kurt will exceed Tommy's total - at the rate he is riding probably by a couple of thousand miles. That would most likely put Steve about "third" behind Kurt and Tommy, or possibly "fourth" behind Bennett's total of 65,127 miles.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 08 July, 2015, 11:09:56 pm
But it's in order to break the record that Steve started this crazy thing. I'm assuming that is what he still wants to do.

Steve has always struck me as a level headed guy.  On last year's Brimstone, when I was suffering from the early stages of a Campylobacter infection and somewhat concerned that I might not make the end of the lane from the control let alone the nearest station or heaven forbid, the finish, his advice was "you've got to cycle 20 miles to get to somewhere where you can bail - by then you will probably complete the ride."   One of the best pieces of advice, because he was dead right - but only someone utterly laid back about things could take on the event the way he does.  I think he will ride as well as he can and if he makes the record all well and good.  If he doesn't, I would be surprised if he carries on to December 2016 taking the 100,000 mile record, a one year record and two year record into the bargain. 

I'm just saying...  There's no secret intelligence to this - I admire Steve for the way that he is totally unaffected by mishaps.

PS -I got round the Brimstone thanks to Steve's level headed advice.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 09 July, 2015, 11:20:28 am
I would be surprised if he carries on to December 2016 taking the 100,000 mile record, a one year record and two year record into the bargain. 

That's fine if there are funds available for him to do this
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 09 July, 2015, 11:29:20 am
Steve is a very level-headed guy. Of all the people I have ridden with, I think he is the most effective at cutting the crap, analysing what needs to be done and getting on with it. That is what leads to my puzzlement at the past month or so. His recent pattern of 250ish followed by 200 days would be absolutely what was needed if he hadn't had the loss of all those miles in April and May, but aren't enough for getting past Tommy in 2015 given what happened. That is why it seems to me that a concurrent attempt* starting about now would give him a big boost by the time the weather starts to get bad (late October say) and by then his asking rate for the rest of the year to July/Aug 2016 would probably be something below 200 mpd.

OK, by then Kurt, if he stays accident- and injury-free, will probably have notched up about 78000, but I feel very confident that Steve can beat that, based on his first 4 months of the year, provided he too remains accident- and injury-free.

*It could be that the purist in him still wants his record to run 1st Jan to 31st December, or 30th, as it will be next year for 365 days, irrespective of what the UMCA rules say.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 09 July, 2015, 01:13:26 pm
That is what leads to my puzzlement at the past month or so. His recent pattern of 250ish followed by 200 days would be absolutely what was needed if he hadn't had the loss of all those miles in April and May, but aren't enough for getting past Tommy in 2015 given what happened.
My rampant speculation on the 30th (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=91645.msg1883996#msg1883996) still feels right to me.  He's increased his average slightly since that post so is on target to have the 15k miles done by the end of this month.  His intention to do a restart has been confirmed recently, if it is going to be at the start of August it'll be lodged with the UMCA on Friday or Monday assuming it can't be done on Saturday (exactly 21 days from the 1st Aug).  It's all still very speculative but I can see no reason other than the 100,000 record for the current activity.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 09 July, 2015, 02:05:48 pm
Maybe he's just not happy with the state of his ankle, and is waiting for it to improve?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 09 July, 2015, 02:18:07 pm
He may have already restarted for all we know. After all I would have thought it would be better to keep the actual date he does a restart on a "need-to-know" basis.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 09 July, 2015, 02:28:50 pm
Maybe he's just not happy with the state of his ankle, and is waiting for it to improve?

That has also occurred to me.

He may have already restarted for all we know. After all I would have thought it would be better to keep the actual date he does a restart on a "need-to-know" basis.

I thought it had to be published, but again, I can't find the rules.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 09 July, 2015, 02:41:54 pm
I suppose Steve is following a structured training regime for the 24 hours at the end of next week.
It will be interesting to see what effect the workload of the record attempt has had on his speed.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 09 July, 2015, 06:09:55 pm
I suppose Steve is following a structured training regime for the 24 hours at the end of next week.
It will be interesting to see what effect the workload of the record attempt has had on his speed.

As am I. I think he will be much faster.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: redfalo on 10 July, 2015, 10:06:05 pm
I would have thought that amphetamines would be pretty useless for an event like this. They might allow you to do a few all-nighters, or give a temporary boost, but there's always payback later. Riding day in, day out, the payback would far outweigh the benefit.

As the man Obree says, TTing is not about going fast, it's about not going slow.
+1
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 July, 2015, 12:14:09 pm
That is what leads to my puzzlement at the past month or so. His recent pattern of 250ish followed by 200 days would be absolutely what was needed if he hadn't had the loss of all those miles in April and May, but aren't enough for getting past Tommy in 2015 given what happened.
My rampant speculation on the 30th (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=91645.msg1883996#msg1883996) still feels right to me.  He's increased his average slightly since that post so is on target to have the 15k miles done by the end of this month.  His intention to do a restart has been confirmed recently, if it is going to be at the start of August it'll be lodged with the UMCA on Friday or Monday assuming it can't be done on Saturday (exactly 21 days from the 1st Aug).  It's all still very speculative but I can see no reason other than the 100,000 record for the current activity.
That sounds pretty reasonable.
Has anyone done the sums - is the last month on a schedule that will get him the 100k record?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: DaveE128 on 13 July, 2015, 11:05:41 am
My optimism for the attempt over this calendar year is rapidly turning to pessimism :( I was wondering whether Steve might continue ramping up the rate of mileage but it looks increasingly out of reach to me now :( Hope I'm wrong. Looking forward to hearing an announcement on the restart.  :thumbsup:

Edit: looking at http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/calendar#year=2015&month=7&day=1&view=month (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/calendar#year=2015&month=7&day=1&view=month) My guess is that the restart will be the start of August.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly John on 13 July, 2015, 12:19:05 pm
As posted upthread, Teethgrinder's team suggested, on Steve's Facebook profile, that an August re-start is a probability.

Quote
Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end. He realises the 'audacity' of the task, but at this point he's still willing to give it everything he has. He is likely to start running a concurrent (new) record attempt next month, so that he still gives himself a full 12 months to see what he is truly capable of. That's the plan thus far. Regards, Steve's Support Team.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 13 July, 2015, 12:29:27 pm
Putting aside the restart bit, I still have difficulty in seeing how

Quote
Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end.

is compatible with the mileage he is currently putting in. He needs to be doing an average of over 250 mpd, which, if he's not doing in July, will find even tougher in December.

I so want to be wrong in this, but I'm inclined to agree with DaveE128.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: tonyh on 13 July, 2015, 12:37:09 pm
Watching with great interest, whatever happens.

And hoping Steve feels "OK+" more often than anything else.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 13 July, 2015, 12:43:52 pm
Putting aside the restart bit, I still have difficulty in seeing how

Quote
Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end.

is compatible with the mileage he is currently putting in. He needs to be doing an average of over 250 mpd, which, if he's not doing in July, will find even tougher in December.

I so want to be wrong in this, but I'm inclined to agree with DaveE128.

To my mind, while the door on the current Jan - Dec 2015 attempt is starting to close now, Steve can see that the door is at least still open - so there is some hope.  As has been said Steve is putting in amazing daily distances, but below the now required mpd...  I guess we do now await the new/concurrent start.

Go Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 13 July, 2015, 12:52:06 pm
What do the rules say about the riders continuing to ride daily until a 365 day total beats all previous values?

A kinda 'retrospective rolling total'.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 13 July, 2015, 01:58:11 pm
No rule specifically against it (http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/max-mileage.php) but each days attempt would incur a $300 fee.  Daily seems infeasible but I guess someone with deep enough sponsors pockets could lodge one weekly.  UMCA will need a much wider spreadsheet.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly John on 13 July, 2015, 07:38:13 pm
I've just ridden and chatted with Teethgrinder for a mile or so, and it sounds as if he still thinks the record is possible.  :thumbsup:

See the 13th July thread (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=91877.msg1890175#msg1890175) for a bit more info.  ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tim Hall on 14 July, 2015, 01:00:44 pm
Email just in from Teethgrinder HQ:

Quote
Steve is now aiming to commence a second (concurrent) record attempt, as he continues to chase down Tommy
Godwin's one year mileage total this year.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: DaveE128 on 14 July, 2015, 01:06:00 pm
Email suggests August restart but doesn't say when in August.

Good to hear Steve's reasoning on why he thinks he can still do it this year. He makes some good points. Hope he's right! :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hellymedic on 14 July, 2015, 01:06:17 pm
Commencing August.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 14 July, 2015, 01:28:03 pm
A concurrent attempt makes sense, must be tough picking the right time to start it. I hope winter 2015/16 is kind to Steve. Nov/Dec can be worse than Jan/Feb. I remember a very snowy Dec even in the south a few years ago.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: RichForrest on 14 July, 2015, 01:34:25 pm
I hope winter 2015/16 is kind to Steve. Nov/Dec can be worse than Jan/Feb. I remember a very snowy Dec even in the south a few years ago.

I'm sure the local group of his team could clear a 4' wide strip around the MK bowl without much trouble  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 14 July, 2015, 02:09:04 pm
Steve's email is good news for those of us beginning to doubt the viability of the current attempt. There's obviously no point in closing the door on that, but starting a new attempt in August after a few weeks' recovery (sleep!) is a sensible plan. Good luck, Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 14 July, 2015, 02:20:01 pm
Steve's statement says finances are tight.

Who is the keeper of the wallet and how do we contact them?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 14 July, 2015, 02:26:23 pm
Steve's statement says finances are tight.

Who is the keeper of the wallet and how do we contact them?
Fidgetbuzz of this parish. See the One Year Time Trial website for details of how to donate. I think the details are in a sticky in this forum.

Edit. Donate here (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/donate)

Further edit to give the right name of the keeper of the OYTT purse!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 14 July, 2015, 02:32:23 pm
Actually fidgetbuzz.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 14 July, 2015, 02:35:40 pm
Actually fidgetbuzz.
Doh! Edited. Thanks, LWaB.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Climberruss on 14 July, 2015, 03:42:45 pm
Should the weather get really bad in the winter, is there anything to stop Steve heading south onto mainland Europe for a few weeks? (Finance excepted)?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 14 July, 2015, 03:49:06 pm
Steady. Finances. I am currently on an obscure Greek island aiming to get back to mainland tomorrow and fly home Friday
.before anyone does anything please give me time to talk to team and then if needed come back to the forum. Your support so far has been superlative.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 14 July, 2015, 04:04:05 pm
I am currently on an obscure Greek island
*** FREEZE THE ACCOUNT ***

FIDGETBUZZ IS ABOUT TO BUY A GREEK ISLAND!!!

Don't do it Rog - I know everything is dirt cheap over there, but you'll regret it :(
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 14 July, 2015, 04:08:44 pm
Ooh, I dunno - TG could spend the next year riding round his own Greek island. That'd sort any weather issues!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 14 July, 2015, 08:32:04 pm
Do you think they want another major sporting superstar after the Olympics blew such a hole in their already fragile finances?  :P
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: redfalo on 14 July, 2015, 09:56:39 pm
Steve's email really made me cringe. Reads to me like he is trying to push himself too far at the moment. But he and his team surely know better....
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andrew531 on 14 July, 2015, 11:30:26 pm
I enjoyed Steve's newsletter. It's good to have a reasoned view every few weeks. I hope the ankle settles down. Steve's not a quitter and I wish him well.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 15 July, 2015, 12:13:03 am
Did only a select few receive the newsletter?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly John on 15 July, 2015, 12:23:02 am
It's here (http://us9.campaign-archive1.com/?u=f184c841a68a86ce82d222948&id=994dfeeb2c) if you haven't seen it yet.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 15 July, 2015, 12:30:00 am
Ta
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Morrisette on 15 July, 2015, 09:48:40 am
Sounds like there is a plan! The mental stamina required to restart the attempt at this stage can only be imagined - to set off on another 365 days....wow!!!

I wonder if the incessant 'breeze' in east Anglia could account for some of the slower mph average? I was surprised that Steve was heading this way so often as it has been very windy for summer so far and in the fens it's usually a headwind 75% of the time! On top of that the weather forecast has been 'differently accurate' recently especially wrt wind direction (example: this morning BBC weather claimed a south-easterly, which was news to me as I rode north-west directly into the wind).

Contrary to logic I think the fen wind often dies down in October. Might be useful!!

Here's hoping that the winter is a warm one!!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 15 July, 2015, 01:08:29 pm
I like the content of Steve's email update.

Anything he says about mileage is unrealistic and barely understandable to the likes of me.

But in his terms, I think he is being realistic and has settled on an achievable plan.

It would be unwise for him to say a lot more.

In the past, I think Kurt has benefited from knowing Steve's tactics.

The email will have given Kurt something to think about, and hopefully, a little uncertainty.

If he breaks the record by, as seems likely, a thousand or two miles, he must now be thinking that won't be enough for him to hold it for very long.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly John on 15 July, 2015, 02:02:48 pm
I wonder if the incessant 'breeze' in east Anglia could account for some of the slower mph average?

When I've seen him recently, I've been suprised at how steady Teethgrinder's pace has been - it's obvious that it's either the injury or the relentless mileage that is slowing him. I've barely ridden a bike this year, and I've been able to put the camera away, mount the bike and am able to catch him in half a mile or so...

...but then Steve has been well into his second century of the day.  ::-)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 16 July, 2015, 07:27:03 am
Quote
In the past, I think Kurt has benefited from knowing Steve's tactics.

the tactics of knowing the average he has to put out to beat an already existing record,

or the ride more in summer than winter tactic

hardly tactics imho, just common sense
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 16 July, 2015, 08:49:01 am
Yes, I don't get that comment either! This isn't a direct competition where each participant needs to keep their cards close to their chest. Kurt and Steve are both trying to beat Tommy's one-year record (and the 100,000 mile record in Steve's case). They're doing it in very different environments with different kinds of support and methodology. Even though Kurt has admitted that he kept an eye on Steve's mileage in the early days (Kurt is, after all, a racer), that became irrelevant well before the accident as it became obvious that the more benign conditions Kurt enjoyed would mean a quite different strategy to achieve the miles. There are no secrets, and no need for any.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly John on 16 July, 2015, 09:10:32 am
Going a bit furthur/faster than 'the other guy' is always an incentive though.

Steve is certainly consious of what Kurt is doing - last time we talked, Teethgrinder told me he though Kurt should have got more early mileage in the bank, while he had the opportunity in Florida.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 16 July, 2015, 09:38:34 am
Florida has its own drawbacks though, like four times the population of Wisconsin in roughly the same area. Kurt definitely suffered from too many bloody cars at times, like when he was being knocked off.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 16 July, 2015, 09:41:20 am
Teethgrinder told me he though Kurt should have got more early mileage in the bank, while he had the opportunity in Florida.

I think it's understandable that Kurt wouldn't start out full guns blazing if he's embarking on a totally unknown challenge, irrespective of the climate, terrain, etc.  It makes complete sense to stay within his comfort threshold for the first few months to see how the body is coping.

The advantage he has, and has had from the start, is his higher moving speed.  This gives him the scope to radically increase daily mileages as and when he deems it prudent or necessary, and his history of RAAM riding gives him the experience of doing this.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if he starts chucking in some monster days now he is over half way (see Tuesday).  He has a few hours each day to play with and still get enough sleep and recovery.  At no point in the challenge has Steve had that option.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 16 July, 2015, 10:05:57 am
Kurt is also part of a scientific training culture. The interesting part of this endeavour is what effect the continued effort has on the blood, haemocrit levels especially.

Kurt has more time to recover, as he's largely treating it as a 12 hours a day exercise. That also gives him the option of transferring by vehicle to avoid headwinds, to delay starts and to stop when conditions are very bad.

Kurt's access to a motor-home, and the constant support of Alicia is the obvious approach to most observers. It's what you see quite regularly on the End to End route. It would be unusual not to see a motor-home parked up at lunchtime in one of the A6 lay-bys between Preston and Levens at this time of year, and that's for riders doing perhaps 200km per day.

A possible outcome is that Kurt takes the record, and a surge of patriotism flushes out another challenger, who adopts Kurt's approach as a baseline.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 16 July, 2015, 10:35:03 am
Yes, I don't get that comment either! This isn't a direct competition .

It is nothing other than a direct competition.

Only one person can hold the record, and we have two riders who appear capable of getting it.

Steve beating Tommy's record may mean something to the tiny audax community, but it will mean very little elsewhere if
Kurt rides further.

I see Kurt put in his longest ride to date after Steve's email was released.

Seems likely to me those two things are connected.

Kurt wants the record.

As of two days ago, all he had to realistically do is beat it.

He now needs to set a mark that Steve cannot beat in his second attempt.

The two riders are clearly in competition.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 16 July, 2015, 10:43:36 am
In Kurt's Day 158 fb video he refers to other 'candidates', but also 'competitors'...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 16 July, 2015, 11:55:29 am
I don't think there's any doubt that they see each other as competitors, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they are adjusting their efforts to match, or that there is much, if any, advantage in keeping plans secret.  Let's face it, they're not going to stay secret for long.

I see Kurt put in his longest ride to date after Steve's email was released.

I think that was more to do with a massive tailwind.  I'd be very surprised if he'd even read Steve's statement by then.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 16 July, 2015, 12:29:09 pm
On Jan 1st Steve can be the new record holder, even by doing less miles-per-day than Kurt.

So not really a DIRECT competition, is it?

( In fact I think he will be the new age-group record-holder - "a winner" ?!? )

I guess what I am saying is that record-breaking is different to other contests - similar to a race, yet very different.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 16 July, 2015, 04:20:42 pm
Absolutely, Matt. Both riders are likely to finish the year holding age-group records under UCMA rules - there being no overall record for the distance ridden in a calendar year, as Guinness refused to recognise it. Their efforts are contemporaneous (at least for Steve's original attempt) but different in style and strategy. We (and they) won't know how they're doing relative to each other until pretty close to the end of the year because of the different weather and road conditions they have to deal with. Steve is still adamant that he'll be able to put in the big, Tommy-matching days in come August; Kurt's strategy doesn't need that. It's a competition in that the target for both is Tommy's 75k, but it's not a race. And with Steve starting a new, concurrent, attempt in August, no-one will really know how he's doing until sometime in late spring/early summer 2016.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 17 July, 2015, 07:10:17 am
Steve’s and Kurt’s mileages are not ‘unrealistic’, considering the muscle volume both men possess. That has been proved.
What IS mindblowing though is the small amount of R&R the two get.

To avoid fatigue, they must have four or five times the available muscle volume of ‘the likes of me’.

In this game, ultimate power takes a back stage position to sheer numbers of available muscle fibre bundles. Having said this, recruiting muscle fibres is a result of hard work, so they MUST be powerful in short distance events.

As David. G. Wilson found, power and endurance work hand-in-hand.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 17 July, 2015, 09:33:01 am
Quote
( In fact I think he will be the new age-group record-holder - "a winner" ?!? )

the age group thing is just a sideline, i doubt either of them cares for the age group record,

what they both want and what it is about, is the out and out record,

 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Climberruss on 17 July, 2015, 11:20:11 am
Florida has its own drawbacks though, like four times the population of Wisconsin in roughly the same area. Kurt definitely suffered from too many bloody cars at times, like when he was being knocked off.

If you watched one of his Fb videos a few weeks ago, it would be fair to say he hasn't helped himself on this one. In the video, he did a U'y in front of an oncoming car without so much as a look over his shoulder.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 17 July, 2015, 03:42:31 pm
Only one person can hold the record, and we have two riders who appear capable of getting it.

No true.

Both riders are competing for the UMCA record - but UMCA bands the records by age and gender. So Kurt is competing in the over 50 band, Steve is in the 49 and under.

We may regard it as just one record (whoever has ridden the furthest in 365 days), but the official record(s) will be different.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 17 July, 2015, 04:17:16 pm
Quote
( In fact I think he will be the new age-group record-holder - "a winner" ?!? )

the age group thing is just a sideline, i doubt either of them cares for the age group record,

what they both want and what it is about, is the out and out record,
Well ...
the record books are the record books. They will list Steve AND Kurt.
But I mainly agree that they would both be just as happy if the age-groups were scrapped.

However:
you're still missing the fact that all record holders get a place in history. Jens Voigt WILL be remembered as breaking the Hour Record. (In fact his ride is probably better known than all the others up-until Wiggins. But that's a mere detail ...).

Steve has explicitly stated that his aim is Tommy's figure. Do you know something we don't? :P
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ramchip on 21 July, 2015, 08:28:24 am
Good to hear that Steve is starting a concurrent attempt next month. As a keen follower of those targeting Tommy's record I have to be honest and say I'm a little bit disappointed by the media streams of Steve's attempt. In comparison with Kurt with constant updates and quality videos each week, which by the way give a great insight into Kurt’s challenge and how he is going about it, Steve media efforts seems light years behind. Surely Steve team could produce at least a couple of videos each week and post  updates each week, which would generate more interest and hopefully more support for Steve.

Come on Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 22 July, 2015, 08:23:58 am
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.

Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 22 July, 2015, 08:48:14 am
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.

Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.
Exactly. Those vids are basically down to 1 full-time (24x7) helper. Look how many contenders have such a person.
Steve would waste a lot of miles making/uploading films, and its just extra hassle.

Also, although I find Kurt/Alicia very likable, I very quickly bored of the videos. Whereas I read the chatter about Steve's attempt most days.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Salvatore on 22 July, 2015, 09:10:12 am
Latest from Steve on twitter
Quote
I overcooked it and have to ease right back
Taking it very easy until the restart on 8th August
#hamr #overtrained #easytiger
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 22 July, 2015, 09:22:46 am
While I understand the defensiveness about Steve's supporters and the practical limits of their time, I think there has been quite a lot of concern that Steve's visible PR has been somewhat infrequent. I've been surprised that the big-name sponsors Steve has haven't put a little more effort into publicising his amazing achievements. And there's some truth in what ramchip says that more publicity would likely raise more money which could help that hard-pressed support team do more - such as hire a nutritionist and/or a coach to give some insight into his current issues.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 22 July, 2015, 12:52:44 pm
Looking at Jo’s chart on July 20, Steve was on his personal target until the scooter incident.
He had his nutritional needs and coaching needs adequately organised.

Steve’s top priority was/is to get the miles done and load the day’s achievements with UMCA.

A UMCA accepted restart on Aug 8th will, I am sure, get what interest has been lost, well and truly back.

There are plenty of summer days yet to picnic in Marsh Gibbon.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ramchip on 22 July, 2015, 02:57:34 pm
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.

Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.

Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 22 July, 2015, 03:15:03 pm
It doesn't need to be videos, I'm finding Miles regular faceache updates interesting since his reboot.  If he, a clear technophobe, can find a few minutes to let the world know what is occurring couldn't Steve or team?  Back when he was touring it was great to read anything posted by the hosts.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 23 July, 2015, 07:24:31 am
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.

Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.

Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.

Go on then !!   ;D

Thank you for volunteering.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rabbit on 23 July, 2015, 07:25:07 am
It doesn't need to be videos, I'm finding Miles regular faceache updates interesting since his reboot.  If he, a clear technophobe, can find a few minutes to let the world know what is occurring couldn't Steve or team?  Back when he was touring it was great to read anything posted by the hosts.

I agree

I can't belive how little coverage the commercial sponsors are getting either
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 23 July, 2015, 07:29:06 am
Considering I can count the spectator attendance on one hand, the sponsors must be relying on magazine adverts when Steve has finished.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 23 July, 2015, 07:38:04 am
That is traditionally what occurs with this sort of thing.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 23 July, 2015, 09:48:33 am
There is a film to be made about the record attempt. I hung back from doing much until it became clear what the media interest was. Immediately prior to the moped incident there was a Daily Mirror article with accompanying film. After the incident there wasn't much to film until the 24, which I usually marshal at, and sometimes film.

Steve is just one subject from a number at the 24. If he'd been going well I'd have filmed him more.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ramchip on 23 July, 2015, 01:08:29 pm
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.

Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.

Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.


Go on then !!   ;D

Thank you for volunteering.  :thumbsup:


If I lived in the UK then I would have no hesitation in helping in whatever way I could. I'm not knocking anybody just stating a clear fact that the media streams are to say the least poor. Just take a look at what a great job Alicia is doing in regards  to Kurt's challenge, with just a few minutes each day with either a phone or a cam.  If Steve is going to succeed then every other aspect of the challenge has to be given as much effort as Steve puts in to grinding out the miles.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 23 July, 2015, 01:18:06 pm
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.

Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.

Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.


Go on then !!   ;D

Thank you for volunteering.  :thumbsup:


If I lived in the UK then I would have no hesitation in helping in whatever way I could. I'm not knocking anybody just stating a clear fact that the media streams are to say the least poor. Just take a look at what a great job Alicia is doing in regards  to Kurt's challenge, with just a few minutes each day with either a phone or a cam.  If Steve is going to succeed then every other aspect of the challenge has to be given as much effort as Steve puts in to grinding out the miles.

So you won't be at the picnic in Marsh Gibbon.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 23 July, 2015, 01:28:15 pm
Ning, I think your sarcasm and dismissive attitude to ramchip's comments are misplaced. He's not the first to have noted that Steve's PR isn't what it might be, and I'm sure he won't be the last unless things improve. Of course he doesn't need a £50k pa full-time cameraman, but he could do with a little bit more accessible coverage.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ramchip on 23 July, 2015, 01:31:42 pm
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.

Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.

Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.


Go on then !!   ;D

Thank you for volunteering.  :thumbsup:


If I lived in the UK then I would have no hesitation in helping in whatever way I could. I'm not knocking anybody just stating a clear fact that the media streams are to say the least poor. Just take a look at what a great job Alicia is doing in regards  to Kurt's challenge, with just a few minutes each day with either a phone or a cam.  If Steve is going to succeed then every other aspect of the challenge has to be given as much effort as Steve puts in to grinding out the miles.

So you won't be at the picnic in Marsh Gibbon.

Sigh! No need for that all all. Don't worry I will not bother posting again in this thread.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 23 July, 2015, 01:45:12 pm
Steve's partisan crowd, once again doing themselves proud.  ::-)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 23 July, 2015, 02:14:02 pm
Steve's PR is rubbish, that's a simple observation.

I lobbed a few quid in, making me an 'official' supporter.

Yet I found out about the new attempt via a post I happened to see on CycleChat.

The importance of good PR is another question - it won't help Steve get the record.

But were it not for Jo and his wonderful graphs, I would have lost interest/track of the attempt long ago.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rabbit on 23 July, 2015, 02:17:00 pm


The importance of good PR is another question - it won't help Steve get the record.


It will if it keeps sponsors happy and keeps the funding coming in. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 23 July, 2015, 02:24:06 pm
There has been regular sniping at anyone daring to question Steve's team's approach which I think does everyone a dis-service.

Alicia's videos may not be to everyone's taste but they give a really good flavour of what this event entails and would appeal to a wide audience.  Let's not forget he's almost entirely self-funding this so isn't just doing this to keep sponsors happy but actually hopes by putting these out they will capture the public imagination (which I think they do quite effectively).

Steve's team, on the other hand, seem to think (in true audax fashion) that if you're REALLY interested then you will find your way to Strava feeds or UMCA charts where you can follow the stats.  Even worse, they seem to actually want to keep stuff secret in case it gives some advantage to his competitors (which I have to say I don't understand at all.)

If it wasn't for YACF (has to be said isn't high in the public consciousness!) and especially Jo's brilliant daily summaries, there would be bugger all to follow.  Steve's effort is therefore invisible to 99.99% of the population, even if they know about it from media features. At the end when it's all over, I'm worried that there will be very to show what actually went on during the challenge apart from a few photos and ESL's occasional videos.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 23 July, 2015, 02:33:34 pm
There has been regular sniping at anyone daring to question Steve's team's approach which I think does everyone a dis-service.

Alicia's videos may not be to everyone's taste but they give a really good flavour of what this event entails and would appeal to a wide audience.  Let's not forget he's almost entirely self-funding this so isn't just doing this to keep sponsors happy but actually hopes by putting these out they will capture the public imagination (which I think they do quite effectively).

Steve's team, on the other hand, seem to think (in true audax fashion) that if you're REALLY interested then you will find your way to Strava feeds or UMCA charts where you can follow the stats.  Even worse, they seem to actually want to keep stuff secret in case it gives some advantage to his competitors (which I have to say I don't understand at all.)

If it wasn't for YACF (has to be said isn't high in the public consciousness!) and especially Jo's brilliant daily summaries, there would be bugger all to follow.  Steve's effort is therefore invisible to 99.99% of the population, even if they know about it from media features. At the end when it's all over, I'm worried that there will be very to show what actually went on during the challenge apart from a few photos and ESL's occasional videos.

Agreed.

Even on here, the daily threads have been getting very little interest and I see none has been started for the last two days.

The restart is an opportunity to invigorate the attempt in more ways than one.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 23 July, 2015, 03:03:56 pm
Apologies.

The man to ask whether there is enough publicity is the man who's doing all the bicycle riding.
If he's happy and within his personal comfort zone, carry on 'as is'.

If he reckons it could be better, make it better.

He might tell you he doesn't want all the publicity.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 23 July, 2015, 03:18:26 pm

He might tell you he doesn't want all the publicity.

He might, but what he thinks doesn't matter.

There is a parallel here with professional sportsmen, few are comfortable in front of the cameras but they are obliged to do interviews by the sponsors and the media who want to hear what they say.

Steve is an amateur, but he is among the best in the world at what he does.

He is sponsored, so is effectively under similar obligations as a professional sportsman.

Some pros do their best to ignore such obligations, and Steve could do the same.

But wider publicity for the attempt - and more sponsorship if required - will only happen if Steve and the team make some effort to get it.

 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 23 July, 2015, 03:43:27 pm
The man to ask whether there is enough publicity is the man who's doing all the bicycle riding.

I'd suggest the man to contact can be found at media@oneyeartimetrial.org.uk, who I think is Idai (EGO-Maniac on this forum), although there may be others involved.

I'd love to see a bit more publicity and the excitement we had for the OYTT in January. It's not just about the sponsors though. If I recall correctly from Godfrey Barlow's book, Tommy's final days of the 1939 challenge involved having escorts of many riders and large crowds greeting him in London at the end as a result of the publicity through the year.

Steve's restart means the timing would be ideal for some end of challenge coverage during the 2016 TdF on the telly but the demand needs to be created through the year with some more active social media presence. CitizenFish has an exciting book project (https://www.v-publishing.co.uk/books/categories/cycling/the-year.html) and generates a regular twitter feed of stats from Tommy and Steve. I'm doing my best with various graphics, but it would be great to have a bit more from the official team to build the excitement.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 23 July, 2015, 04:32:41 pm
He is sponsored, so is effectively under similar obligations as a professional sportsman.

What are the sponsors asking for that he is not providing?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 23 July, 2015, 06:02:27 pm
I'm not sure that the sponsors are asking for anything - yet. But I'm equally sure that they hope to gain some positive publicity from Steve's efforts, and so they should. It would do no harm for the sponsors to see that their contributions are publicly acknowledged and valued, beyond just a mention on the OYTT website. Steve is, of course, focussed on putting in the massive and magnificent effort required to actually challenge the record. If there were no support team, we would happily accept that he has no time to be worrying about publicity etc. But that's not the case; he does have a support team - considerably larger than anything Kurt or Miles have. Some may think it churlish that those supporting Steve either financially or simply through interest should want rather better communication and publicity than we've had up to now, but I think it's quite a reasonable expectation. I hope that maybe a way can be found to improve things.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 23 July, 2015, 07:04:21 pm
What the sponsors want from Steve is between him and them. There may be an agreement, there may not. Raleigh are still getting mentions from Tommy Gowdwin, I believe. That's not bad for a sponsorship deal.

What the funders want is different. I'm a funder and a host and I never had expectations that I'd be treated differently in terms of information. This is a tough undertaking, both physically and mentally. Making it more challenging by piling on 'me me me' pressure may not be particularly helpful.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 23 July, 2015, 07:33:57 pm
What the funders want is different. I'm a funder and a host and I never had expectations that I'd be treated differently in terms of information.

No-one is saying that funders should be treated differently!  Everyone is presumably getting the same - practically nothing. That's the problem.

This is a tough undertaking, both physically and mentally. Making it more challenging by piling on 'me me me' pressure may not be particularly helpful.

We're not talking about Steve personally taking the time or effort.  According to the website there are people who have apparently agreed to deal with media and publicity.  For heaven's sake, many ventures would crave the potential interest that Steve's challenge generates - that's the hard bit!  Keeping people informed and interested should be relatively easy.  Something as simple as a Facebook page with daily updates would be a good start (Jo might agree to allow some of his amazing charts to be included?).  The current Facebook page has the air of being abandoned and is vaguely depressing in the way that neglected websites often are.

Instead there seems to be some sort of paranoia-fuelled media blackout from the team in case it somehow helps Kurt.  I simply don't understand.  As Jo says, with the new challenge starting on 8th August, this would be a good time to re-assess the publicity aspect and check with those who volunteered for the task originally to see if they are still interested.  A lot can change over a year!

I appreciate that things were blown badly off course by the accident, and that Steve will never have the 24-hour support that Kurt has.  Even so, there could be so much more interest and potential support generated for Steve by a relatively modest input from the team.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Climberruss on 23 July, 2015, 08:47:52 pm
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.

Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.

Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.


Go on then !!   ;D

Thank you for volunteering.  :thumbsup:


If I lived in the UK then I would have no hesitation in helping in whatever way I could. I'm not knocking anybody just stating a clear fact that the media streams are to say the least poor. Just take a look at what a great job Alicia is doing in regards  to Kurt's challenge, with just a few minutes each day with either a phone or a cam.  If Steve is going to succeed then every other aspect of the challenge has to be given as much effort as Steve puts in to grinding out the miles.

From a PR point of view, you are spot on. Alicia's FB videos are great. She definately has a knack for it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 23 July, 2015, 11:41:41 pm
Whatever the rights or wrongs of helping competitors, Steve deserves more, much much more.

Those who are helping are doing a fantastic job, so let's get behind Steve, whether it be on Facebook or by turning up and riding a couple of miles with him. It will make a difference in the end.

On that aspect, a rough indication of the direction of the day's proposed ride wouldn't go amiss. We have the restart to boost Steve a make him realise just how many latent cyclists are behind him.

It's up to us all to make the effort for him, even a Facebook like helps.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 24 July, 2015, 07:16:36 am
What the sponsors want from Steve is between him and them. There may be an agreement, there may not. Raleigh are still getting mentions from Tommy Gowdwin, I believe. That's not bad for a sponsorship deal.

What the funders want is different. I'm a funder and a host and I never had expectations that I'd be treated differently in terms of information. This is a tough undertaking, both physically and mentally. Making it more challenging by piling on 'me me me' pressure may not be particularly helpful.

Yeah, you're right. The sponsors are in it for charity, and Steve should keep everything as secret as possible. Don't want the competitors knowing how he's getting on, after all!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 24 July, 2015, 09:04:21 am
It's an interesting case study. A lot of the YACF sentiment seems to be that Steve should be free of pressure, to do what he can. Target-based management is a bad thing, and the more freedom workers have, the better they will perform. In the extreme case there's a basic denial that there is any competition at all. The target of the record appears as a platonic ideal, and not caring whether Steve gets there is a sign of innate virtue in his backers.

More attention has been paid to the fact that a village has the word 'Gibbon' in it, than to the physiological and psychological demands of what is largely uncharted territory. As long as Steve has a Brooks saddle and a Carradice bag, he'll be alright.

This would be just an interesting diversion if Steve wasn't principally backed by YACF. There's bound to be a tension between the YACF view of the attempt, and the outside world. If you're trying to secure general interest, it's hard to integrate a video of bell-ringing in Marsh Gibbon, in the absence of Steve. A video of Steve visiting a sports scientist to judge the effects of the ride so far would be more comprehensible. I've got a lot of sympathy with his team for having to balance the range of perceptions about what Steve is doing.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 24 July, 2015, 09:08:26 am
i wonder if the comments on Strava could be disabled, its the most public place his rides are, yet when he does a low a mileage day, the comments are full of negativity, with lots of uniformed people posting and commenting, Steve's from here of course, were more informed that a lot of the public, i have posted updates on his Strava rides before,
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 24 July, 2015, 09:54:33 am
Whether we like it or not, this is an endeavour carried out in the public eye. Therefore the public will, when it's given an opportunity, comment upon it. Strava is such an opportunity and, just like any other part of the Internet, some of the commentary will be unpleasant or even abusive. Sadly, that's the way it is. Strava is unmoderated, as far as I can tell, so there's no filter for the bad stuff. Nevertheless, most of the comments are positive.

ESL makes the point that this is largely a YACF-backed venture. Certainly, it started as such, but I think it went well beyond that quite rapidly. I've no idea what proportion of Steve's financial support comes from YACF regulars now, but the early days of the attempt got quite a lot of publicity which alerted the wider public to the venture and hopefully resulted in a wider source of income. That in itself is a good reason for upping the game re publicity, unless Steve feels that he'd rather the whole thing remained an in-house YACF project. I'd be surprised if that were the case.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 24 July, 2015, 10:04:54 am
This is YACF, where there's an Elephant in every room. The first step in any debate is to dispute whether the Elephant is there or not. The outside world is less nuanced.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 24 July, 2015, 12:04:32 pm
Probably a straw man or two as well! All we're missing is a few Grauniad links.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 24 July, 2015, 12:28:35 pm
i wonder if the comments on Strava could be disabled, its the most public place his rides are, yet when he does a low a mileage day, the comments are full of negativity, with lots of uniformed people posting and commenting, Steve's from here of course, were more informed that a lot of the public, i have posted updates on his Strava rides before,

Or just edit the title of the ride to make it clear what it is trying to be achieved... and mention the restart date?   The negative comments will be worse if people who do not come on this site or donate have no idea what the plan is.   Most people on strava would understand the ride more if it was titled; "Recovery ride pending 8th Aug Restart" ...that takes seconds to do.

I personally would love to see more videos, facebook updates, interviews and general updates from the team through the day, for no other reason than I find Steve a pretty interesting and compelling person.    While I do not want PR and press to infringe on his bike hours - a bit more involvement of the public (and his own community) would be a big plus in my opinion and I actually think it would help Steves moral.

Surely some people riding with him would help - I am not talking strangers, but people he could get used to riding with who could carry his carradice and provide some shelter and support?   Maybe a carbon Raleigh could be provided and one of the support crew could occasionally drive or cycle the carbon bike out to Steve for a few fast loops within a ride or a swift sprint home ?     You could even have someone riding with him with a faster, more aggressive bike and they could swap bikes with 50 miles left and let Steve sprint home?   I think this record is very hard to beat unless Steve is prepared to get more creative ...his average speed has to increase even if he slightly strays from Godwins method and uses more modern techniques .... like Tarzan has.   If Steve just wanted to do the ride as a tribute to Godwin then fair enough, but I understand from Steves comments that he wants to beat the record and the other competitors.   If he wants to do that then I think he needs more than the incredible levels of grit and stamina he posseses.   He needs to look at his routes and equipment rather than focusing on cutting out fuss at the start and end of day.    There is no way on earth that the way he has done things this year is the fastest way to ride.   Maybe Steve does not want to make certain concessions that would help him?   That is admirable but I fear it will make a record beating year very hard.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 24 July, 2015, 12:46:42 pm
the trouble is for the media it now isn't news. It was news when he started, and it'll be news when he finishes it, but the fact that something is still going on the same as it was yesterday and probably the same as it will be tomorrow, is not news, therefore the media will not be interested.
In a similar way to how the greek debt crisis is not news any more, and why things like "newsflash! the earth has gone round the sun yet again!" do not generally tend to appear in the media.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 24 July, 2015, 12:50:58 pm
I wasnt really talking about getting updates into the media.   I was simply referring to putting stuff out from the team on facebook, strava, twitter, youtube ect.    Just a short weekly update detailing where he has been, what his problems have been, what his successes have been ect.  Maybe ask his hosts and riding partners to submit journals and write ups and post them up on facebook ect.   There is clearly an interest from a lot of people.

There are so many stats, maps and details to be discussed here -that is why we are all so interested on top of the simple human interest story.   I would just like to see more a fuss and buzz being created by Steves team.    Facebook is so quick and easy to use and you can reach most people who are interested in him - It was great when the attempt first started and updates were posted.  I was sharing these and people with no interst in cycling followed steves page.   Then it all just stopped?  Just seems a shame?

I would love to see someone recruited to edit and publish coverage of Steves attempt, then present it in a media savvy way.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Canardly on 24 July, 2015, 12:54:39 pm
Of huge interest to the cycling fraternity (and dare I say sponsors) will be how elements of the kit Steve is using has performed, what works, what doesnt, and what had to be changed etc. Nothing being said atm.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 24 July, 2015, 03:45:24 pm
the trouble is for the media it now isn't news. It was news when he started, and it'll be news when he finishes it, but the fact that something is still going on the same as it was yesterday and probably the same as it will be tomorrow, is not news, therefore the media will not be interested.
In a similar way to how the greek debt crisis is not news any more, and why things like "newsflash! the earth has gone round the sun yet again!" do not generally tend to appear in the media.

Actually, I think there's been quite a lot of interest from mainstream media - more than I expected. But I don't think that's the issue (although I'm sure the sponsors would like more!). For me, it's the more personal stuff. Steve doesn't have an Alycia to take ad-hoc movies, but his team sees him often enough that authoritative updates could easily and frequently be placed on FB, Strava, AUK, and here. Jo does an amazing job collating all the ride info on the various riders, and we have all come to rely on that. We've had two updates from Steve's team in the last month or so - once it became obvious that the current attempt was no longer on track - but I think we'd all appreciate a bit more, and Steve would reap the benefit in more donations at the very least.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 24 July, 2015, 05:01:34 pm
There's been some response.
http://www.icebike.org/steven-abraham-and-the-one-year-time-trial/
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 24 July, 2015, 05:10:19 pm
I saw that just a few minutes ago, having caught a link on Strava - definitely a step in the right direction, but I wondered a little at the choice of site to carry it. Is Icebike a well-known site? I'd never heard of it before today.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 24 July, 2015, 11:31:02 pm
Need to get him on celeb BB, I think relatively he'd be one of the most famous ones on there  ::-) ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 24 July, 2015, 11:33:59 pm
What the sponsors want from Steve is between him and them. There may be an agreement, there may not. Raleigh are still getting mentions from Tommy Gowdwin, I believe. That's not bad for a sponsorship deal.

What the funders want is different. I'm a funder and a host and I never had expectations that I'd be treated differently in terms of information. This is a tough undertaking, both physically and mentally. Making it more challenging by piling on 'me me me' pressure may not be particularly helpful.

Yeah, you're right. The sponsors are in it for charity, and Steve should keep everything as secret as possible. Don't want the competitors knowing how he's getting on, after all!

You've turned "what the sponsors want from Steve" into charity. Well done. Gold star.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 25 July, 2015, 09:26:33 am
What the sponsors want from Steve is between him and them. There may be an agreement, there may not. Raleigh are still getting mentions from Tommy Gowdwin, I believe. That's not bad for a sponsorship deal.

What the funders want is different. I'm a funder and a host and I never had expectations that I'd be treated differently in terms of information. This is a tough undertaking, both physically and mentally. Making it more challenging by piling on 'me me me' pressure may not be particularly helpful.

Yeah, you're right. The sponsors are in it for charity, and Steve should keep everything as secret as possible. Don't want the competitors knowing how he's getting on, after all!

You've turned "what the sponsors want from Steve" into charity. Well done. Gold star.
j
Well, it's simple really. If a sponsor wants no return for their investment, that is effectively charity. That's the position you and I and many others who've financially contributed to Steve's effort are in. All we ask in return is information - which is the point of the current discussion. The commercial organisations will, no doubt, require a little more. How much more will depend on the individual organisation, but it's probably pretty safe to assume that Raleigh, Schwalbe and Chain Reaction will want some publicity that puts them in a good light with potential customers. If I were one of those businesses, I would be hoping for (and probably arranging) coverage during the event so that the potential benefits are maximised - waiting for the end of the event, with the possibility of failure very real, would risk losing much of that potential benefit. Whether the sponsors are happy with the coverage they've had so far obviously I can't say, but my observation is that, so far at least, they haven't had a great deal. Maybe they're ok with that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 25 July, 2015, 10:21:45 am
All I am saying is that we don't know what the sponsors want from Steve, and that the benefit from the 1YTT potentially goes on years afterwards. To give Steve three bikes represents a cost of maybe £1,000, maybe 50% more. That's less than the cost of one full page advert in a cycling magazine.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 25 July, 2015, 10:57:50 am
Yes, I agre they're not likely to have invested very much. From that point of view it's probably good value, although I'm surprised they haven't capitalised on it more. But, really, that's an aside from the issue of keeping the supporters informed a little more effectively than has been the case hitherto. But I fear the length of this conversation makes this appear to be a bigger issue than it is. It's simply a case of some of us wishing for a bit more info than we've had, really.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 25 July, 2015, 11:01:07 am
Let's see what comes out after the re-launch, it has been a bit of a phoney war over the last four months.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jacamo on 25 July, 2015, 02:23:33 pm
Yes, I agre they're not likely to have invested very much. From that point of view it's probably good value, although I'm surprised they haven't capitalised on it more.

They will capitalize on it- but only if and when the attempt is successful.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: RichForrest on 25 July, 2015, 03:08:07 pm
Rode with Steve today for a bit, he's in good spirits, looking good and starting to get faster again from a few days recovery mileage.
He would like a camera but wouldn't have the time to edit or upload stuff.
I left him heading for the flatlands again and came home as I had to collect the kids  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: DaveE128 on 27 July, 2015, 11:01:54 am
I have an idea why Steve has recently had some fatigue problems. Clearly not visiting Marsh Gibbon has unexpected consequences! ;)

I think the idea of editing the title of the ride on the Strava upload with a one line summary of the day's ride would be a good way to improve audience connection.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 30 July, 2015, 05:06:54 pm
Well, backing off for a week or so has improved Steve's speed significantly, it seems:

https://www.strava.com/activities/356931909

310kms, and barely 11h on the bike.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 30 July, 2015, 06:42:28 pm
the trouble is for the media it now isn't news. It was news when he started, and it'll be news when he finishes it, but the fact that something is still going on the same as it was yesterday and probably the same as it will be tomorrow, is not news, therefore the media will not be interested.
In a similar way to how the greek debt crisis is not news any more, and why things like "newsflash! the earth has gone round the sun yet again!" do not generally tend to appear in the media.
Well put. we're pretty much seeing as much "buzz" around Steve at this stage as I would expect.



So (@Timc et al), about these Sponsors: what do they want?* Publicity! Are they getting it? Yup.
Period.

And let's review the much-praised publicity from Team Kurt. If it wasnt for one person (Alicia) who is in a position unique to all the competing teams, we would have maybe 1% of the coverage. Likewise, for those not on Facebook - and this may be a hard concept for Facebookers - there is very little out there.

So I'm quite happy that Steve's team are giving us what we need. It was always in the nature of his attempt that things would be crowd-sourced; jo's graphs and other stuff on YACF are emblematic of that, and a big positive  :thumbsup:

We don't need weekly repetitive vlogs of flat roads ;)

*(Maybe they're bugging Team Steve behind the scenes for weekly blogs, or a webcam in his bathroom ... we just don't know. )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ramchip on 30 July, 2015, 06:54:16 pm
the trouble is for the media it now isn't news. It was news when he started, and it'll be news when he finishes it, but the fact that something is still going on the same as it was yesterday and probably the same as it will be tomorrow, is not news, therefore the media will not be interested.
In a similar way to how the greek debt crisis is not news any more, and why things like "newsflash! the earth has gone round the sun yet again!" do not generally tend to appear in the media.
Well put. we're pretty much seeing as much "buzz" around Steve at this stage as I would expect.





So (@Timc et al), about these Sponsors: what do they want?* Publicity! Are they getting it? Yup.
Period.

And let's review the much-praised publicity from Team Kurt. If it wasnt for one person (Alicia) who is in a position unique to all the competing teams, we would have maybe 1% of the coverage. Likewise, for those not on Facebook - and this may be a hard concept for Facebookers - there is very little out there.

So I'm quite happy that Steve's team are giving us what we need. It was always in the nature of his attempt that things would be crowd-sourced; jo's graphs and other stuff on YACF are emblematic of that, and a big positive  :thumbsup:

We don't need weekly repetitive vlogs of flat roads ;)

*(Maybe they're bugging Team Steve behind the scenes for weekly blogs, or a webcam in his bathroom ... we just don't know. )


(http://images.rapgenius.com/ee779bd7bd5796f12cb073ab94a9090e.450x302x1.gif)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 30 July, 2015, 07:58:21 pm
Heh, you're funny!

You'll be pleased to hear I have about as much respect for your posts. :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 31 July, 2015, 10:22:35 am
ESPN have just done a feature on Kurt, which I think is the first coverage he's had for a while (I think Bicycling's article was the only other I've seen over there). Of course, he's not sponsored - either by industry or by donations - so media coverage is possibly irrelevant to him. Alycia's vlogs are great; amusing and interesting and they'll make a fascinating record of Kurt's year to look back on.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 31 July, 2015, 01:40:48 pm
TG has done what he said he was going to do - take it a little easier for a while (without grinding to a halt) and then picking up the speed again ahead of a relaunch.  He's done 34,617 miles so far, so 200mpd would take the annual total to 66,000, which is a mighty impressive total and more than anyone else apart from the other TG has managed.  And then there's the new attempt...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ray 6701 on 02 August, 2015, 10:58:00 am
When does the new attempt start  ???

Ignore that!  I've just seen that it's the 8th of August  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Justin(e) on 02 August, 2015, 05:05:02 pm
Good luck TG with new launch.

Wish you the best of health.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: DaveE128 on 03 August, 2015, 04:34:12 pm
He isn't having a... <hushed voice>day off</hushed voice>... is he?! Or is the live tracker just down? :)

Might be good for the legs!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 03 August, 2015, 04:37:24 pm
I kind of hope he is - he won't get another chance for a long time!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 03 August, 2015, 05:14:45 pm
Blimey, looks like he just set off at about ten to five!

Maybe he's just nipping down the chippie.   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 03 August, 2015, 05:22:01 pm
Perhaps he's been waiting for the wind to drop? It's been pretty blustery all day out here in the East. Riding through the evening and night might be a lot more pleasant due lack of traffic, as well.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 03 August, 2015, 09:05:38 pm
What was his riding schedule in the last week of December 2014?

That might give us a clue.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 04 August, 2015, 01:44:36 pm
My recollection is that he started 1YTT with quite low pre start riding for several months - I think you can check it out on Strava.

Aug 8th is going to be a totally different kettle of fish - provided he has the mental strength to be starting now for another year - when he has already been committed for the last 7 months.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 04 August, 2015, 09:04:41 pm
My recollection is that he started 1YTT with quite low pre start riding for several months - I think you can check it out on Strava.

Aug 8th is going to be a totally different kettle of fish - provided he has the mental strength to be starting now for another year - when he has already been committed for the last 7 months.


very low in Dec 14 as very busy on computer from dawn to dusk (and longer then! ) getting everything in place.

couldn't agree more that 8th of August will be a very different kettle of fish. we shall just have to wait and see what transpires
good luck Steve
 :thumbsup:


Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 05 August, 2015, 08:02:49 am
First question, will there be any sort of send off for Steve on the 8th? Is he planning a 'night' or 'daytime' start?

Secondly it would be good this time if daily reports resumed and even advanced reports of the direction he might be heading in the following day would give supporters the opportunity to show up and show their support for the next twelve months. I travel a lot with work and have been disappointingly close or too early/late on a number of occasions, when I would otherwise have adjusted my schedule to suit and if nothing else add some encouragement out on the road.

It is better if reports are separated by date, otherwise the reports end up as pages and pages of endless, sometime irrelevant babble.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 05 August, 2015, 08:19:43 am
I definitely prefer the daily reports. Much easier to follow. Kurt's thread is just about to hit 100 pages....
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 06 August, 2015, 09:28:08 am
First question, will there be any sort of send off for Steve on the 8th? Is he planning a 'night' or 'daytime' start?

Secondly it would be good this time if daily reports resumed and even advanced reports of the direction he might be heading in the following day would give supporters the opportunity to show up and show their support for the next twelve months. I travel a lot with work and have been disappointingly close or too early/late on a number of occasions, when I would otherwise have adjusted my schedule to suit and if nothing else add some encouragement out on the road.

It is better if reports are separated by date, otherwise the reports end up as pages and pages of endless, sometime irrelevant babble.

I will second this.
I have holidays and would use them cycling out to see Steve ( and having a slap-up breakfast )  :thumbsup:

Maybe if a rendezvous can occur, I'll foot Steve's expense.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 06 August, 2015, 11:04:40 am
Ok Steve,

That is two slap up breakfasts booked, only another 364 to book!

See you down the road.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 August, 2015, 05:27:11 am
Steve enjoy your last day of pottering around keeping the legs in trim. tomorrow the action starts!
206 miles (and more when you can) every day for the next 364 days.  quite an undertaking on top of last seven months
 but we wish you fast and safe miles.   I hope that you enjoy PBP this month.
 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hellymedic on 07 August, 2015, 05:13:39 pm
Wot Arry-R said!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 07 August, 2015, 08:27:21 pm
do we need a new thread tomorrow? while renaming this one? as there is an outside chance its still on
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Canardly on 07 August, 2015, 08:34:42 pm
Good luck with this Steve we all know you can do this and do it well!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 August, 2015, 08:40:44 pm
yes new thread required for Saturday onwards as no way (but Steve please prove me wrong) is 39454 miles going to be achieved in remaining months to end of year.

 :facepalm:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 07 August, 2015, 09:18:16 pm
That would be 272 a day....... :o
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: clarion on 07 August, 2015, 09:29:15 pm
Go Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 07 August, 2015, 11:46:38 pm
Indeed - best of luck tomorrow (and for the 364 days after that).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 08 August, 2015, 12:34:55 am
Has he started yet?  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 08 August, 2015, 05:40:45 am
Doesn't look like to on Trackleaders yet, but is there going to be new page for the new attempt?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 08 August, 2015, 05:52:45 am
I don't think there needs to be one. We can just label each new day's thread '8th August - Teethgrinder Day 1 / 220' etc.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 08 August, 2015, 08:55:15 am
Doesn't look like to on Trackleaders yet, but is there going to be new page for the new attempt?
After decoding the post above [ to / it ? ],
I assume the question is about getting a new map page on trackleaders.com

Which seems a jolly sensible idea!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Grandad on 08 August, 2015, 09:17:18 pm
Now that the new attempt is definitely on it would be nice to see this confirmed as a News item on Steve's website.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 09 August, 2015, 09:00:14 am
If I understand things correctly, presumably that come next year in addition to a potential HAM'R/Tommy Godwin year record, the total miles that Steve may have cycled from Jan 2015 - Aug 2016 will form an 'unofficial' (within HAM'R regs) but still verified possible absolute mileage total record of 100K+ miles...(?)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mcshroom on 09 August, 2015, 09:49:10 am
I raise the comms topic with trepidation as I think there are far more important things than feeding our desire for news/gossip, but I think it would be a good idea for Steve to turn the 'Share to Facebook' option on in Strava. It shouldn't cause him any extra work, but the daily posts with amazing distances will keep droping onto people's newsfeeds, keep the profile high and generate their own debate in the comments.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 09 August, 2015, 10:06:05 am
I agree, though I find that feature fairly unreliable, tending to turn itself off randomly and for no obvious reason, which means someone's got to keep an eye on it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 10 August, 2015, 01:40:43 pm
From the Tarzan thread...

Steve is indeed inspirational and it is such a massive shame that his initial effort was cut short by a piss-head. I wonder where he would have been now if he hadn't been injured.

But starting again must take a determination which is impossible for most of us to comprehend.

It's good that Steve appears not be giving in to an "if only..." view of the incident and challenge.

My own view is that most of us, riders included, have underestimated just how hard keeping up Tommy's (paced) summer ride distances would be. In the early part of the year we all thought that falling behind that 205.6mpd average would be OK because it would be made up by monster miles in the summer. The reality is that it is just not possible to do 300mpd unaided and uninterrupted for weeks on end.

For that reason, I don't think Steve would have made the record on his original schedule even without the incident. He did have a spell in late June where he appeared to be upping the speed and distance to try to bring back the 2015 attempt, but that soon resulted in fatigue (around the Mersey 24 time) that showed this is not sustainable. I wouldn't put that down completely to a healing ankle. For similar reasons, I doubt that Miles will make it either. Without paced riding and a lot more team support, I think the only way to beat 75,065 miles is to ride a little more than average pace for most of the year, much as Kurt is doing.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 10 August, 2015, 03:45:48 pm
A pretty sound analysis jo.

Although I would say we can't know how much damage the accident did - he was riding big miles a long time before any doc would have predicted, so there MAY be long-term affects in there. Yes, he could never match Tommy's paced days, but he might have been capable of big summer averages.

Also I think that with our climate, for an MK-centric attempt SOME concession to the seasons seems sensible. So a schedule somewhere between dead-even pacing and Tommy's schedule is probably optimum.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 10 August, 2015, 04:46:04 pm
Agree this is sound thinking.  I'd come to pretty much the same conclusion on those days when you are pedalling along thinking how you'd do it. 

Kurt's strategy of banging out consistent miles over 365 days is entirely sensible.  I think this is possible in the States, where you can flit between states with (broadly) consistent weather conditions. 

Whether it is possible in the UK, with shorter days and colder weather in winter, remains to be seen.  Personally I suspect it means that UK riders would need to do more miles in the summer and less in the winter, but not to the same extremes as were being scheduled by Steve at the start of the year.  I also suspect it needs some opportunistic riding, particularly in the winter, to take advantage of breaks in conditions as an offset against those occasions when the weather isn't playing ball.

I think Miles is making a fundamental mistake seeking to mirror Tommy's progression.  Come 6 months, he is going to struggle to keep pace and will fall behind.  He will then be left seeking to do more in the last 3 months of the year than Tommy did.  Will be interesting to see the progress on Jo's fabulous charts.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 10 August, 2015, 06:41:17 pm
I am surprised that Steve seems unwilling to partake of pacing offers which have been made.  I can understand the worry of a wheel touching scenario but PBP is likely to have more wheels around that he would ever have on his record attempt.
We eagerly await today's (higher we hope) mileage   ??? ???


Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 10 August, 2015, 06:51:05 pm
I am surprised that Steve seems unwilling to partake of pacing offers which have been made.  I can understand the worry of a wheel touching scenario but PBP is likely to have more wheels around that he would ever have on his record attempt.
We eagerly await today's (higher we hope) mileage   ??? ???

Steve was (and I assume still is) riding to a heartrate.  That doesn't make pacing (or more correctly, drafting) impossible, but would probably need a bit of tech-fu to put a realtime display of his heartrate somewhere where the person on the front of the group could see it.  I doubt that Ant+ has sufficient range on its own.

You could argue for a change in strategy, of course.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 10 August, 2015, 08:19:50 pm
I agree it is surprising.  At the start of the year I thoguht it was one of the big advantages Steve had.
It shouldn't be that hard to do.  After a short while people would get the hang of the pace Steve wants.  If they rode alongside him for half an hour they would pick it up.  If all else fails, he could shout, or just wait for them to look back and see that he is not there.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 10 August, 2015, 08:37:27 pm
Isn't there something more noble about not being paced?  Sometimes it is not just what you do, but how you do it.  Steve has, if anything, always given the impression that it is about more than just the score on the board.  Panache, of a sort, and all the better for it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 11 August, 2015, 08:19:44 am
I don't usually post my thoughts on the current record attempt but seeing that we have near perfect riding conditions at the moment shouldn't Steve be putting in some big distances right now instead of 200-and-a-bit distances?

And does anyone know if Steve is indeed doing PBP? I keep hearing it mentioned but I don't recall seeing any actual details.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 11 August, 2015, 08:38:54 am
I don't usually post my thoughts on the current record attempt but seeing that we have near perfect riding conditions at the moment shouldn't Steve be putting in some big distances right now instead of 200-and-a-bit distances?

And does anyone know if Steve is indeed doing PBP? I keep hearing it mentioned but I don't recall seeing any actual details.


couldn't agree more with your posting. mileages far too low

as for PBP all quiet.  a request was put out for a Driver to look after him over there,  recharge thingies download data etc
 was that role forefilled?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Salvatore on 11 August, 2015, 08:39:26 am
He's T166 according to the tracking page. Same start group as I'm in.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 11 August, 2015, 08:41:20 am
Thanks Salvatore. Which group's that?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 11 August, 2015, 08:42:57 am
Note to self: Have a word with Iddai about publicity or lack of. We're both in the same PBP starting group...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Salvatore on 11 August, 2015, 09:16:20 am
Thanks Salvatore. Which group's that?

The last of the 90 hour groups.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 11 August, 2015, 10:00:50 am
I don't usually post my thoughts on the current record attempt but seeing that we have near perfect riding conditions at the moment shouldn't Steve be putting in some big distances right now instead of 200-and-a-bit distances?


couldn't agree more with your posting. mileages far too low


Isn't it more a case of the average riding speed being too slow (as it has been from the very start back in January)?  Unless Steve can get consistently above 16mph (Kurt is somewhere near 18) then he'll always be struggling with sleep and rest deprivation.  The limiting factor is the hours in a day - certainly not Steve's determination.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 11 August, 2015, 10:04:52 am
I have Steve's PBP bike now -.....   complicated checking it in, picking up documentation etc , Linking with support vehicle and TG himself as my start is 5.30 -- but as far as I can foresee- we have all bases covered at the moment.

Personally I was surprised when he chose the 9.00pm start , rather than the Monday morning - when he could have had 5 or 6  hours sleep in a booked hotel and would have been faster thru controls  .. which had been the plan put in place months ago.

BUT - I was told it was his choice and there was no point in discussing or debating  it -- but to me it still does not seem the right start time to maximise sleep, minimise control time etc
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 11 August, 2015, 10:32:44 am
Isn't it more a case of the average riding speed being too slow (as it has been from the very start back in January)?  Unless Steve can get consistently above 16mph (Kurt is somewhere near 18) then he'll always be struggling with sleep and rest deprivation.  The limiting factor is the hours in a day - certainly not Steve's determination.

Looking at his and the others' average speed, he has been increasing his speed over the last couple of weeks, to the extent that he is currently riding faster than Kurt and as fast as he has at any point during the year.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/movingAverageAug10.png)

Zooming in a little...

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/movingAverageAug10Inset.png)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 11 August, 2015, 11:37:38 am
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.

Steve will know how fast he can ride at a HR, and he knows how much sleep he needs. He will have enough experience to know what HR can be maintained without it becoming cause of insomnia.
Steve would have done the maths. He must assess he can beat Tommy’s record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 11 August, 2015, 01:00:03 pm
to the extent that he is currently riding faster than Kurt and as fast as he has at any point during the year.

Not really.  He has ridden faster than Kurt on a few days, but that probably coincides with days that Kurt has experienced adverse weather conditions or medical issues. 

His speed has certainly increased recently - let's hope that can be maintained for the next 12 months, because that's what it will take (amazing to even consider).  However it's noticeable that Kurt's speed has dropped off slightly over the year - perhaps that is the reality as the challenge takes it's toll, rather than hoping for increased speed as a result of repetitive effort and fitness.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 11 August, 2015, 01:09:17 pm
Remember,,,

The hare was faster than the tortoise for the time he wasn't asleep.  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 11 August, 2015, 01:15:20 pm
Kurt's lost a bit of speed recently due his lung issues (which I hope are resolved soon); as Jo's graph shows, he's normally at 18 and quite frequently a good bit more. Steve's average has fluctuated hugely due to his various travails, but it seems his 'natural' speed is around 16mph. With something like 240 mpd being the presumed target through the late summer, that's 15 hours a day on the road, plus stopping time, which probably doesn't leave enough time for adequate rest. I've seen reference to Steve using HR to keep the fatigue stress down, which has perhaps limited his speed. It's a problem - too fast and burn out, too slow and insufficient miles? I think if I were in his shoes, I'd do the same: at least ride for the full year even if the distance isn't quite there, rather than have to finish early with fewer (but faster) miles.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jacamo on 11 August, 2015, 09:02:33 pm

Not really.  He has ridden faster than Kurt on a few days, but that probably coincides with days that Kurt has experienced adverse weather conditions or medical issues. 


Kurt has also ridden 1,500 more miles than Steve over the last 3 weeks.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jacamo on 11 August, 2015, 09:12:02 pm
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.


Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance event such as this.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 11 August, 2015, 09:25:45 pm
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.


Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance such as this.

I'm also slightly puzzled if that is the dictating indicator.  I'm not sure how it would be possible to calculate in advance what the optimum heart rate would be over the whole year when by the very nature of the event the factors involved have not been experienced before (including by Steve over this timescale).

It could be he's "keeping the brakes on" or conversely (less likely) over-extending himself.  Surely it eventually just comes down to feel.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 12 August, 2015, 09:35:31 am
I'd imagine that the HRM would be a useful indicator of over-training.  But often that simply backs up what your body is feeding back.  On the bike, Steve is experienced enough to know when he is pushing too hard (particularly as he is riding solo, rather than being befuddled by the influence of other riders who may be riding at a different tempo).

I look at Steve's current mileage and think he's doing just fine.  Sensible in fact, and gives me more confidence that he will achieve the record.  Anyone who thought he would suddenly jump from 150 mile "recovery" rides to 250 mile+ "record" rides, after doing long miles for six months and recovering from a broken ankle, is asking too much of him as an athlete.  It is, after all, simply the first week in his new attempt and he probably has half an eye on the sleep deprivation in foreign climes and the general exertion and associated fatigue that PBP will entail.  The latter half of August will (I imagine) be more telling.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 12 August, 2015, 10:16:16 am
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.


Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance event such as this.

Let's have a list of more accurate metrics.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 12 August, 2015, 10:41:45 am
A HRM in endurance events is a method by which the athlete can judge their condition against previously recorded results from heavily exhaustive investigation.

This means the HRM user on events such as Steve’s should have been monitoring their condition for at least 12 months to gain knowledge of ‘Expected’ for riding conditions.

Riding at ‘Expected’ will give Steve the best chance of success.

If the HRM does something ‘Unexpected’, it could be sign of illness, which is what Steve doesn’t want.
If Steve’s HR is consistently above ‘Expected’ on any day, he can consult his team doctor or physician.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 12 August, 2015, 10:46:04 am
Yesterday's ride had an average HR of 85bpm according to teh Strava.

Slacker!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jacamo on 12 August, 2015, 12:39:27 pm
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.


Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance event such as this.

Let's have a list of more accurate metrics.

Number one on my list would be watts (normalized power). Of course this number alone means little, and you need to monitor all the basic metrics (HR, waking HR, blood pressure before/after rides, sleep hours, RPE, weekly blood tests, etc) in combination with wattage to know if a rider is overdoing it, or leaving something on the table.

Increasing or decreasing daily normalized power to adjust to the riders physiology is *much* more effective than riding to a certain self-imposed HR.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 12 August, 2015, 12:43:49 pm
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.


Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance event such as this.

Let's have a list of more accurate metrics.

Number one on my list would be watts (normalized power). Of course this number alone means little, and you need to monitor all the basic metrics (HR, waking HR, blood pressure before/after rides, sleep hours, RPE, weekly blood tests, etc) in combination with wattage to know if a rider is overdoing it, or leaving something on the table.

Increasing or decreasing daily normalized power to adjust to the riders physiology is *much* more effective than riding to a certain self-imposed HR.
So that's:
One (1)

(and it's a lot of work to monitor all that stuff, but that's by-the-by)

How many of these more accurate metrics do you have?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 12 August, 2015, 12:56:48 pm
Yesterday's ride had an average HR of 85bpm according to teh Strava.

Slacker!

Steve will be along shortly to confirm that was 'As expected'.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 12 August, 2015, 01:04:06 pm
I’ve sussed it.

The road into Marsh Gibbon is flat and straight. That’s where Steve checks his HR against previous data.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 12 August, 2015, 01:08:09 pm
If Steve checks his HR against previous data, I would have thought it's mainly via the ride analysis page on Strava. Of course, Ning, you may not use that as it really needs a Garmin to log the data! ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: teethgrinder on 12 August, 2015, 01:32:21 pm
I think I have learned from what I have done so far.
I'm not just going by heart rate but also by feel.
Nor am I riding to a specific heart rate.

Even I don't know my route for the day.
I check the weather each morning then decide. I often change my route during the day
 Today is an example. Route change and early stop for a feed so I can buy a front light as I forgot my battery. :facepalm:

Taking things a bit easy to start with.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jacamo on 12 August, 2015, 02:07:09 pm
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.


Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance event such as this.

Let's have a list of more accurate metrics.

Number one on my list would be watts (normalized power). Of course this number alone means little, and you need to monitor all the basic metrics (HR, waking HR, blood pressure before/after rides, sleep hours, RPE, weekly blood tests, etc) in combination with wattage to know if a rider is overdoing it, or leaving something on the table.

Increasing or decreasing daily normalized power to adjust to the riders physiology is *much* more effective than riding to a certain self-imposed HR.
So that's:
One (1)


I would also put RPE ahead of HR monitoring for pacing. 1-Power, 2-RPE, and 3-HR. There are no others easily monitored while riding.

Also, other than blood testing, it would take no more than 5 minutes per day to record all the other metrics. Of course you'd need a trainer and doctor to track/assess the data and recommend adjustments, but without a power meter you'd have no accurate/reliable metric to adjust to.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 12 August, 2015, 02:19:36 pm
The number 1 consideration I use to adjust riding speed is,,

Will all the cake be eaten before I arrive?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 12 August, 2015, 06:43:05 pm
I would also put RPE ahead of HR monitoring for pacing.
that's hilarious.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jacamo on 12 August, 2015, 08:34:46 pm
I would also put RPE ahead of HR monitoring for pacing.
that's hilarious.

Laugh away, or go read any of the published studies on HR response and cardiac drift during ultra endurance exercise. The choice is yours....
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 12 August, 2015, 10:50:12 pm
I think I have learned from what I have done so far.
I'm not just going by heart rate but also by feel.
Nor am I riding to a specific heart rate.

Even I don't know my route for the day.
I check the weather each morning then decide. I often change my route during the day
 Today is an example. Route change and early stop for a feed so I can buy a front light as I forgot my battery. :facepalm:

Taking things a bit easy to start with.


Good to hear from you TG.  I like the idea of being free to ride where you feel like riding - they're often the best ones.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 13 August, 2015, 11:34:40 am
There are two measurements of exertion one can use while cycling that do not require any additional equipment.
The first is the simple test whether the exertion can be accomplished by breathing only in through the nose. When the mouth is required for breathing in, workrate is increasing.
The second is the drip of sweat off your brow. When this happens, you can bet you’re working hard, so slow down!  :thumbsup:

An accomplished AUK cyclist only needs to breathe in through the mouth on upward hills.
Being able to only use the nose for breathing on flat roads allows the cyclist to eat boiled sweets.

Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mukkinese on 13 August, 2015, 03:04:49 pm

Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.

I do, almost constantly.

Perhaps I should knit myself a headband.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 13 August, 2015, 03:31:05 pm
Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.

Clearly Sir did not ride the Alan Furley in 2005 :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 17 August, 2015, 08:23:07 am

Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.

I do, almost constantly.

Perhaps I should knit myself a headband.

I bought one. When Laurant Fignon won the tour.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Clemo on 17 August, 2015, 09:09:40 am

Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.

I do, almost constantly.

Perhaps I should knit myself a headband.
Headbands give you funny sun tan lines on your head  :P ;D

I bought one. When Laurant Fignon won the tour.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 17 August, 2015, 10:26:03 am

Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.

I do, almost constantly.

Perhaps I should knit myself a headband.
Headbands give you funny sun tan lines on your head  :P ;D

I bought one. When Laurant Fignon won the tour.

Not as funny as a bald bloke in a Banana hat.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 18 August, 2015, 01:26:44 pm
Currently wondering if Steve will get PBP validated.  ACP regulations retain the traditional wording that it is not possible to participate in another event at the same time as a BRM.  Did he get special dispensation from ACP?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 18 August, 2015, 05:32:42 pm
based on a few clues this week, I'm almost certain ACP know about HAMR and are being helpful.
remember; French rules are not as equal as others!

(but if he doesnt get validated I can't see Steve caring much.)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly John on 18 August, 2015, 09:44:46 pm
With all this restart and PBP excitement, we seem to have overlooked that Teethgrinder has passed the halfway point to Tommy Godwin's total mileage.  :)

Go Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 19 August, 2015, 07:50:48 am
Steve rode PBP so ACP can boast next year "New HAM'R record holder rode our event."

In French of course, or something like "Paris-Brest-Paris helps new HAM'R record holder on his way to victory. Shame he's a Ros-biff."
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 19 August, 2015, 09:44:47 am
I can't help but think that, although he is slightly ahead of THE GODWIN LINE, Miles is not in a position to be effectively challenging Godwin or Tarzan.  If his intention is to shadow Godwin's mileages throughout the year, he's got a bit of a struggle ahead of him to match the 300+ mile days - nothing he's done in this attempt or the last has convinced me that he has the speed and consistency to do that (but I would love to be proved wrong).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 19 August, 2015, 10:01:50 am
I agree with your assessment, although I'm not sure which Godwin line you are referring to. Currently he is 700 miles or so behind Godwin's actual distance by day 63 and around 3,800 miles behind Godwin's WR pace. I can't see much evidence that he'll be able to catch up from this position.

Miles faces a tough job in that he has less public attention than Steve and Kurt. He's doing impressive distances by normal standards, but is eclipsed by the other two. Being in the same age category as Kurt, he probably won't even get the satisfaction of leading in his age group. However, if he were to prove us wrong, it would make for a dramatic and exciting story for the OYTT.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 19 August, 2015, 10:25:38 am
Just goes to show how tough this challenge is.  3,800miles over 300 days is an extra 12 to 13 miles a day over Godwin's WR pace.  Or another 45 minutes (or thereabouts) on the bike.  Doesn't sound like much, but it broadly means Miles beginning to do and maintaining the distance that Kurt is currently banging out in "summer" conditions.  I'm guessing he remains confident he can do it, even if to some of us it feels beyond what is possible.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 19 August, 2015, 11:37:43 am
I agree with your assessment, although I'm not sure which Godwin line you are referring to. Currently he is 700 miles or so Godwin's actual distance by day 63 and around 3,800 miles behind Godwin's WR pace. I can't see much evidence that he'll be able to catch up from this position.

Miles faces a tough job in that he has less public attention than Steve and Kurt. He's doing impressive distances by normal standards, but is eclipsed by the other two. Being in the same age category as Kurt, he probably won't even get the satisfaction of leading in his age group. However, if he were to prove us wrong, it would make for a dramatic and exciting story for the OYTT.

Oops, my bad, I was looking at the graphs and of course I was only seeing where Miles was on Day 16 relative to The Godwin Line (by which I meant what Godwin actually achieved, not his year-averaged pace).  Since you've stopped showing the entire year on one graph, I'd lost track of how much mileage Miles was losing to the others and even to The Godwin Line.  I'd given up following him on Strava because he was clogging up my news feed with 0-milers.  Goodness, it really doesn't look great for him.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 19 August, 2015, 04:08:34 pm
did any one notice in one of kurts videos - i think it was the one with the bin lorry nearly taking him out  :o

i don't know if it was tongue in cheek, but he said he was going to finish in California so he could get an extra 3 hours riding in

that within the rules?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 19 August, 2015, 04:31:19 pm
Do you REALLY want an answer to that, Dan?!?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 19 August, 2015, 07:13:08 pm
yes REALLY  ::-)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 19 August, 2015, 07:54:01 pm
The weather has really been against Miles the past month or so but as in his first attempt I'm finding it hard to take this attempt seriously yet either. He's falling behind and has shown little evidence of being able to bang out the huge distances consistently that will be required.

Kurt on the other hand is a machine, very impressed with his consistency over the past few months. Barring disaster he's got it in the bag.

Steve (x2) will depend on how benign Autumn 2015 and Winter 2015/16 is. I hope he can get a good buffer of miles under his belt before any prolonged bad weather. I've noticed that his daily mileage is considerably lower than even his most pessimistic schedule for mid-August though. But that schedule looks to have been way too optimistic now?

Kurt's straight line tactic appears to be the "winning" formula for the moment.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 19 August, 2015, 07:55:14 pm
did any one notice in one of kurts videos - i think it was the one with the bin lorry nearly taking him out  :o

i don't know if it was tongue in cheek, but he said he was going to finish in California so he could get an extra 3 hours riding in

that within the rules?

He can ride for no more than 24hrs a day wherever he is.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 19 August, 2015, 10:09:27 pm
I imagine he could take advantage of the different time zones across USAnia and gain an hour, but anything requiring crossing multiple zones is going to need a plane or long car journey.  But I rather think that by that time twenty-odd miles isn't going to make a huge difference  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 19 August, 2015, 10:44:57 pm
Yes you are right Steve needs to up his mileage if possible? ??
he looked really knackered on PBP and couldn't really speak very well.

 :facepalm: :facepalm: ??? ???
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 21 August, 2015, 08:53:08 pm
he looked really knackered on PBP and couldn't really speak very well.

 :facepalm: :facepalm: ??? ???

Eh?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 06 September, 2015, 05:35:01 pm
Is there a rebooted schedule?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 06 September, 2015, 06:20:50 pm
I have asked but there doesn't seem to be

 :facepalm:

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 06 September, 2015, 06:41:05 pm
Not a grumble, but it is difficult to remain engaged with so little information for the "crowd".
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 06 September, 2015, 06:46:45 pm
I'm pretty sure Steve has some rough figures in his mind, but I was wondering if anything firm-ish had been published.

( It must be difficult to sort such things out when you're tired/broken/on-the-mend/riding. )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 06 September, 2015, 10:54:48 pm
My guess is that Steve has learned a lot from both Kurt's approach and his own difficulties, and has come to realise that the 240-260 mile days he originally planned for the summer are just not likely to be practicable at the speeds he's able to reliably maintain and the sleep he needs. Therefore a more workable 210-230 mile schedule in the better weather, reducing to a 180-190 mile schedule in the worst of the winter, may give him more chance of making the reboot attemprt work to beat Tommy. Whether that's enough to beat Kurt is another matter entirely.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 September, 2015, 08:46:20 am
Not a grumble, but it is difficult to remain engaged with so little information for the "crowd".


Agreed
 :facepalm:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 September, 2015, 08:54:47 am
My guess is that Steve has learned a lot from both Kurt's approach and his own difficulties, and has come to realise that the 240-260 mile days he originally planned for the summer are just not likely to be practicable at the speeds he's able to reliably maintain and the sleep he needs. Therefore a more workable 210-230 mile schedule in the better weather, reducing to a 180-190 mile schedule in the worst of the winter, may give him more chance of making the reboot attemprt work to beat Tommy. Whether that's enough to beat Kurt is another matter entirely.

Let us all hope that with this week's weather expected to be ideal let us hope he can start real mile eating.
In the 6 days of Sept he has averaged some 211 mls a day.  In August sadly (partly cos of PBP lurgy) he only averaged about 191 mls a day.  I hope but I do not see the average getting to the daily average of the 206 needed for a few weeks,  hopefully by the end of Sept.  what do the rest of you envisage?

 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LEE on 07 September, 2015, 11:26:52 am
he looked really knackered on PBP and couldn't really speak very well.

 :facepalm: :facepalm: ??? ???

Eh?

I rode with Steve for an hour on PBP, around lunchtime on day 2.  He was yawning continually.

This is understandable when you realise he'd cycled straight from Dieppe, onto the start-line and into PBP, basically adding 200km to the start of his PBP.  He would have then ridden immediately into the night.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 07 September, 2015, 12:12:25 pm
what do the rest of you envisage?

I think Steve that when the clocks go forward still will have got to a point where his is averaging just over the Godwin pace (complete guess: he will max out at 210 miles a day average) and will maintain that differential for as long as the weather holds out and then drift beneath it, but always within the realistic realm to make up the deficit in the Spring/Summer (if he keeps fit and well).

I suspect one of the benefits of his current approach, where he starts later in the morning, is that, come winter, the frost and fog will have a better chance of melting away by the time he starts.  The trade off is riding later into the blackened hours, but I imagine that works better psychologically (I think it makes a different if you start in light and end in dark, as opposed to starting and finishing in the dark).

But all a guess.  Steve is in uncharted territory for 21st century cyclists.

The unknown is whether he will be above or below the Seavogel line.  Kurt is doing a proper job on the record, and I'd guess he will end a couple of 1000 miles beyond where Godwin ended up, all being well.  That sounds a lot, but translates to 5 miles or so more a day on average that Godwin.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 September, 2015, 02:11:24 pm
A well thought out reply Hillbilly - many thanks.
 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 September, 2015, 06:47:19 pm
Hillbilly what I should have posted was:-
What a crock of sheer brilliance!   (You are a master with your words)
 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 08 September, 2015, 09:08:52 am
Following on from Roger's resignation as money man, I'm wondering how many others in the support team will feel able to continue for another 8 months, and will there be other "casualties"?

As I write this, I am not entirely clear who actually is actively part of the support team, as there seems to be some kind of omertà in place which restricts the flow of information to us for fear of "aiding the enemy".
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 08 September, 2015, 09:28:13 am
There were several changes in the team early on but Roger is the most recent and highest profile.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 08 September, 2015, 09:31:34 am
Is an open forum the best place to talk about it ?

(click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 08 September, 2015, 11:35:51 pm
Is an open forum the best place to talk about it ?

(click to show/hide)

Given that most of Steve's financial supporters are probably members of this forum, I think it probably is appropriately discussed here.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 08 September, 2015, 11:46:02 pm
Following on from Roger's resignation as money man, I'm wondering how many others in the support team will feel able to continue for another 8 months, and will there be other "casualties"?

As I write this, I am not entirely clear who actually is actively part of the support team, as there seems to be some kind of omertà in place which restricts the flow of information to us for fear of "aiding the enemy".

i would imagine that it's Jo's summation of the data that presents the most problems. It's a very handy tool for seeing if you're on target.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 08 September, 2015, 11:59:11 pm
I dont think that most financial support has come from YACF members ( might be wrong )--  if you look at the donor list - there are 700 one off donors and 200 standing order donors --where i think you would be right is that the most passionate supporters are on YACF.

By choice I would have  kept passionate supporters well informed of what is going on -- there were original plans for a regular newsletter ( monthly i think) -- but this has fallen by the wayside as nobody was willing or able to do it.

And so passionate knowledgeable supporters are ill informed (even though  we have a better  understanding of the demands of extreme distances than 99.5% of the population ).

But that is the way that the attempt has been run -- obviously Steve himself does not have the  time to communicate with supporters
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 09 September, 2015, 12:07:05 am
You've already said, Roger, that Steve probably has enough money now to see him through to the end of the concurrent attempt, so I guess the point is moot and the remaining team have no need to consider the feelings and desires of the knowledgeable and passionate supporters, but I think that's a bloody shame. It does kind of feel like our money has been taken without adequate acknowledgement. I wouldn't put any of that on Steve - his job is to ride the bike, and nothing else, and that is an enormous workload. I just don't get the 'knowledge is power, and you're not having it' attitude that seems to have become the culture of the team.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 09 September, 2015, 12:29:32 am
You've already said, Roger, that Steve probably has enough money now to see him through to the end of the concurrent attempt, so I guess the point is moot and the remaining team have no need to consider the feelings and desires of the knowledgeable and passionate supporters, but I think that's a bloody shame. It does kind of feel like our money has been taken without adequate acknowledgement. I wouldn't put any of that on Steve - his job is to ride the bike, and nothing else, and that is an enormous workload. I just don't get the 'knowledge is power, and you're not having it' attitude that seems to have become the culture of the team.

Well said TimC

 :facepalm:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 09 September, 2015, 06:01:03 am
Is an open forum the best place to talk about it ?

(click to show/hide)

Given that most of Steve's financial supporters are probably members of this forum, I think it probably is appropriately discussed here.

No it's not and I think you may have misunderstood my reply to LWaB. I wasn't referring to the lack of communication to the YACF supporters by the team during Steve's attempt, or to how the team has been run, but to the changes made in the team during the period just before Steve started and as it involves me it's not for public consumption.

If you want to question all the other stuff, then go ahead, but my involvement in the team and the internal politics at that time doesn't get discussed here.

I would however like to take this opportunity to thank the AUK, YACF and other supporters for their generosity when Mike and I were setting up the register for the hosts.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 09 September, 2015, 10:19:57 am
The fact is the only thanks I've received for any of my donations was from FB; so I presume this will now stop (and no I don't think this is an inappropriate place to discuss this, it's not an exclusively yacf nor AUK challenge)

If there's enough in the kitty to keep TG going for another 12 months excellent, and best of luck to the team to keep that money rolling in.

Just remember in terms of a level playing field Kurt is entirely self funded according to the interview he shared on YouTube, there will be no 8 month extension for him.

Go Steve!
Go Kurt!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 10 September, 2015, 12:37:16 pm
To be fair though, Kurt hasn't had his ankle broken by a drunk mopedist.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: 24hourmaths on 10 September, 2015, 01:19:34 pm
Watching with great interest Steve's progress over the last 8 months, I fear that his chance of success whilst staying in the British Isles is fairly low.

I am not an audax rider (yet) and I don't pretend to know how someone can ride these distances day in, day out. When Steve didn't ride with (fast) pacers during the summer, he was always going to drop way behind Tommy Godwin. Now, he seems to be following a more 'Kurt-like' approach of days around the 220 mile point, which seems sensible. But... this is going to be really tough to keep up as daylight fades and temperatures drop.

What he needs is a mate with a time-share in Calpe, and cheap flights to Alicante and Novemer to February pedalling up and down the Spanish coast.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 10 September, 2015, 01:41:10 pm
It has been said before, but it's worth saying over and over. Kurt has Alicia, right there - all day, every day. Kurt doesn't need to do anything except ride bikes (which he does really well); Alicia is always there with food, PR, films, and MTFU kicks out of the RV's door.

That's a team with success written all over it, right there.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 10 September, 2015, 01:48:07 pm
When Steve didn't ride with (fast) pacers during the summer, he was always going to drop way behind Tommy Godwin.

The current expert in Tommy Godwin says Tommy didn't have any pacers either.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 10 September, 2015, 03:09:16 pm
It has been said before, but it's worth saying over and over. Kurt has Alicia, right there - all day, every day. Kurt doesn't need to do anything except ride bikes (which he does really well); Alicia is always there with food, PR, films, and MTFU kicks out of the RV's door.

That's a team with success written all over it, right there.
Yup.

Quite a high-risk strategy though - it's a lot of strain to put on a relationship. If Alicia just decides to drive herself to California one day, Kurt would not be in a good situation. Fortunately this hasn't happened yet  :thumbsup:

Steve went very low-risk; he had plans in place to do everything himself if needed. Ride from home every day. Fix his own bikes. Look after himself - just as he did in his last record-breaking year.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 10 September, 2015, 05:11:33 pm
Is an open forum the best place to talk about it ?

(click to show/hide)

Given that most of Steve's financial supporters are probably members of this forum, I think it probably is appropriately discussed here.

No it's not and I think you may have misunderstood my reply to LWaB. I wasn't referring to the lack of communication to the YACF supporters by the team during Steve's attempt, or to how the team has been run, but to the changes made in the team during the period just before Steve started and as it involves me it's not for public consumption.

If you want to question all the other stuff, then go ahead, but my involvement in the team and the internal politics at that time doesn't get discussed here.

I would however like to take this opportunity to thank the AUK, YACF and other supporters for their generosity when Mike and I were setting up the register for the hosts.

Ah - sorry, AM, I had no idea about any of that, so obviously that's not what I was on about.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 10 September, 2015, 06:21:43 pm
That's OK TimC, you weren't to know.

Obviously that shouldn't stop you airing your opinion about all the other stuff though.

Cheers AM.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 13 September, 2015, 07:49:45 am
with Steve having covered 7100 miles on the concurrent attempt he needs only average 207 miles a day and he could well beat 75065. Let's all hope he survives the rigors of Winter and tiredness.

his mileage this year is some 42833 miles.  With an average of 206 a day he will do around another 21942 which should see him achieve 64775 by the end of December.  I believe he will set a record for his age group.

well done Steve and keep going.
 :thumbsup:

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 13 September, 2015, 08:29:07 am
It's noticeable that there is less buzz now. I wonder if it is because whilst people respect what is being attempted, it has a more quixotic feel about it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 13 September, 2015, 08:37:07 am
Arry-R, not sure the arithmetic there is quite right. Steve has 110 days left in 2015. 206 mpd for the remaining time would leave him with around 65,500 for the year. Although to have any chance of eventually beating Kurt's likely total he'd need to be doing more than that this year.

A useful minimum target for his 2015 total would be Bernard Bennett's 1939 distance of 65,127 miles. That would likely give Steve a podium position behind Tommy's and Kurt's totals.

Steve has stated he might expect some of his longest distance days to be ridden this autumn into winter. There is considerable risk from the weather though, especially unfavourable winds. I imagine the network of places to stay with volunteers would be helpful in that respect so he is not forced to make every ride a MK-based loop.

I'm not sure where the capacity for longer distances is likely to be. Looking at his daily movement patterns, he has already managed to shrink his stopped time to one lunch stop and a short teatime stop. Perhaps lengthening his day by 30 minutes might do it, but I know he is acutely aware that he can't accumulate fatigue through loss of sleep. His daily average moving speed seems to be hovering between 15.5-16.5 mph which is about as fast as it has been during the whole challenge and I don't see much scope to improve that given that he must be as fit now as he will ever be.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 13 September, 2015, 08:48:13 am
The easiest option is for Steve to shorten his lunch stop. That would require eating on the bike, which might need somebody handing him up a musette of food (including a thermos/ bidon of hot soup during winter?).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rabbit on 13 September, 2015, 11:00:50 am
I'm going to go out and say it:

There just is not enough publicity and feedback to the supporters and sponsors about Steve, his daily progress/feelings/comments and what's going on.  In our modern society we have 24/7 news and we are used to over-analysis of 'the famouses'. I'm glad there is enough money in the kitty to sustain Steve to do what he has always wanted and attempt to break the Godwin record, but I suspect there will be a good number of people who do not continue their SOs and even some who may pull theirs early. 

When there are charities asking for money to feed starving children, keep the air ambulances in flight, save the donkeys etc etc etc, it may become difficult to support a cause that is starting to look one that is severely lacking support.  This is not necessarily my opinion, but it is how it is beginning to appear from the outside world. 

If I was Raleigh, Hope or one of the other big sponsors who had provided kit, I would be also rather mortified by the lack of publicity. Of course they may be perfectly happy with the situation, who knows (well indeed, who does know, as we have heard nothing). The pro riders I know all have to work exceptionally hard not just looking after their fitness and health, but in a 'political' manner to ensure that their sponsors get the thanks they deserve by coverage through social media.  That's the nature of people giving you stuff/money for free and it's the way the world works. 

Kurt and Alicia have this dialled, with the regular updates and it makes the supporters 'feel part' of their attempt.  A bit like the Olympics - it's rarely the performances that get people supporting, it's the post run interviews, the pre-race 'look at their training day' documentaries, the reminders of career up and downs that allow people to feel empathy with their cause.

Lets not forget, the harsh reality is, the vast majority of people in this world don't have the luxury of other people giving them money so they can follow their dream and become top level athletes/record breakers/sponsored professionals.  Most people have to grind out a day to day existence until the day they die.  Even in the UK, with our disposable incomes, growing middle class, luxury lifestyles, there are still starving children and families living in poverty through lack of education/poor parenting/bad luck/drug addiction.

If you are going to have the luxury of following a dream on other people's funding in the modern world, it is an unwritten rule that news and feedback is part of the deal and Steve's team should deal with this.  Or maybe Steve should get himself a new team.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 13 September, 2015, 12:58:32 pm
The funding is tiny, the sponsors are donating very little relatively. Three bikes? That's a drip in a blip in the ocean for the marketing budget of a decent company.
Besides, the story here is completing the target, not the grinding out of every mile.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 13 September, 2015, 01:07:19 pm
You would expect more from his team bearing in mind that he has got someone for PR (Idai). I've said from early on that Steve's strategy for the attempt was wrong, attempting to break 'the 'Tommy Godwin record' rather than the 'Highest Annual Mileage record'. You'd think they are one and the same but they are not. Kurt from the off was looking to break the latter heading off down to Florida and the flatlands, whilst  Steve was attempting to break the former carving his way on an out and back out West to Tewkesbury, taking in a fair amount of elevation because this was in the 'spirit of the record'. Attempting to raise this moot point following on from a partisan OP undermining Kurt's record attempt by FB saw me as the villain and the ensuring witch hunt that followed was not particularly nice - or called for, but it would appear I was right all along with Steve now heading to the flatlands day after day. I fear it may be in vain though, Kurt is more consistent with his timings, speed and rest. Will Steve keep this up and break the a record in eleven months time? Time will tell but the implied goings on from FB posts (following his resignation) don't look optimistic to me (wrt to the team).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 13 September, 2015, 01:43:31 pm
Time will tell but the implied goings on from FB posts (following his resignation) don't look optimistic to me (wrt to the team).
You sound like you are really enjoying it  ;D  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 13 September, 2015, 01:59:26 pm
Time will tell but the implied goings on from FB posts (following his resignation) don't look optimistic to me (wrt to the team).
You sound like you are really enjoying it  ;D  :thumbsup:

No more then seeing Wobbly making a botch job of his Pashley with a rubber matlet on PBP. Karma's a bitch when you tell someone to 'fuck off' on a public forum. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 13 September, 2015, 02:01:31 pm


No more then seeing Wobbly making a botch job of his Pashley with a rubber matlet on PBP.

That was a proper A grade lump hammer, I'll have you know.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 13 September, 2015, 02:36:52 pm
That was a proper A grade lump hammer, I'll have you know.

And expertly wielded too Maud. My thanks, as always.  :thumbsup:

As for LMT and Assasin and anyone else that wants to make snide comments I'd be delighted to discuss it face to face with you. Anytime.  :)

Anyway, back to Steve...

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 13 September, 2015, 06:27:04 pm
Arry-R, not sure the arithmetic there is quite right. Steve has 110 days left in 2015. 206 mpd for the remaining time would leave him with around 65,500 for the year.

Steve has stated he might expect some of his longest distance days to be ridden this autumn into winter. There is considerable risk from the weather though, especially unfavourable winds. I imagine the network of places to stay with volunteers would be helpful in that respect so he is not forced to make every ride a MK-based loop.

I'm not sure where the capacity for longer distances is likely to be. Looking at his daily movement patterns, he has already managed to shrink his stopped time to one lunch stop and a short teatime stop. Perhaps lengthening his day by 30 minutes might do it, but I know he is acutely aware that he can't accumulate fatigue through loss of sleep. His daily average moving speed seems to be hovering between 15.5-16.5 mph which is about as fast as it has been during the whole challenge and I don't see much scope to improve that given that he must be as fit now as he will ever be.


Thanks Jo my maths were indeed out

He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.


I am not sure where the extra capacity is going to come from for longer mileage days either as without building up a surplus for the winter it isn't good.  The 360 mls (under the averaged of 206 per day) has to be clawed back soon rather than later!

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 13 September, 2015, 06:32:00 pm
It's noticeable that there is less buzz now. I wonder if it is because whilst people respect what is being attempted, it has a more quixotic feel about it.


I fear its because of his 200-210 mls a day compared with expected 240 a day (lower limit)
I hope all of us here regulars maintain our interest and support which I am sure we shall.  The charts that Jo has done are much appreciated please keep them coming.
well done to all supporters.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 13 September, 2015, 06:43:56 pm
I'm going to go out and say it:

There just is not enough publicity and feedback to the supporters and sponsors about Steve, his daily progress/feelings/comments and what's going on.  In our modern society we have 24/7 news and we are used to over-analysis of 'the famouses'. I'm glad there is enough money in the kitty to sustain Steve to do what he has always wanted and attempt to break the Godwin record, but I suspect there will be a good number of people who do not continue their SOs and even some who may pull theirs early. 

When there are charities asking for money to feed starving children, keep the air ambulances in flight, save the donkeys etc etc etc, it may become difficult to support a cause that is starting to look one that is severely lacking support.  This is not necessarily my opinion, but it is how it is beginning to appear from the outside world. 

If I was Raleigh, Hope or one of the other big sponsors who had provided kit, I would be also rather mortified by the lack of publicity. Of course they may be perfectly happy with the situation, who knows (well indeed, who does know, as we have heard nothing). The pro riders I know all have to work exceptionally hard not just looking after their fitness and health, but in a 'political' manner to ensure that their sponsors get the thanks they deserve by coverage through social media.  That's the nature of people giving you stuff/money for free and it's the way the world works. 

Kurt and Alicia have this dialled, with the regular updates and it makes the supporters 'feel part' of their attempt.  A bit like the Olympics - it's rarely the performances that get people supporting, it's the post run interviews, the pre-race 'look at their training day' documentaries, the reminders of career up and downs that allow people to feel empathy with their cause.

Lets not forget, the harsh reality is, the vast majority of people in this world don't have the luxury of other people giving them money so they can follow their dream and become top level athletes/record breakers/sponsored professionals.  Most people have to grind out a day to day existence until the day they die.  Even in the UK, with our disposable incomes, growing middle class, luxury lifestyles, there are still starving children and families living in poverty through lack of education/poor parenting/bad luck/drug addiction.

If you are going to have the luxury of following a dream on other people's funding in the modern world, it is an unwritten rule that news and feedback is part of the deal and Steve's team should deal with this.  Or maybe Steve should get himself a new team.
[/quot


Rabbit.  well done on your posting and very good it was too.   Perhaps Steve would wish to have more pro active team members but he hasn't the time to deal with anything other than miles and miles day after day.
Sadly without Roger "we're doomed I tell yee"
" !!

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 13 September, 2015, 06:53:45 pm


He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.



Mike, who organised the hosts, has moved to Malaysia.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 13 September, 2015, 07:08:26 pm


He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.



Mike, who organised the hosts, has moved to Malaysia.
I'm sure someone on this thread will soon tell us what bad planning this was, how Kurt's team wouldnt do such a thing,  blahblahblah ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 13 September, 2015, 07:10:44 pm


He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.



Mike, who organised the hosts, has moved to Malaysia.

News to me (a host) but might explain why I haven't heard much from the team for a while.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 13 September, 2015, 07:13:30 pm
Suggest you contact the Crew Chief to clarify the sitrep - make him do some work!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 13 September, 2015, 07:14:52 pm
Good luck with talking to the Crew Chief and getting any sense back.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 13 September, 2015, 09:14:21 pm
He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.
Mike, who organised the hosts, has moved to Malaysia.
News to me (a host) but might explain why I haven't heard much from the team for a while.
Hmmm, there be movement.  The Hosts Organiser was still listed on Steve's web site earlier this week and isn't any longer.  FB has been removed too, I'm guessing we can probably thank FB for the kick in the wotsits Steve's web man clearly received.  Calendar has been cleared, donations page hasn't changed.  Concurrent total added.  There was a routes master listed earlier in the year, he's disappeared at some point too.

Glad to see some movement  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 13 September, 2015, 09:29:33 pm
In terms of administrative communication, this is beginning to remind me of run-up to LEL 2009.

I suppose another thing to consider is that Steve himself may not want too much focus or outside attention on the attempt for fear it puts more pressure on him, especially if he isn't totally convinced that he can actually break the record (which he is recently on record as stating).

Tarzan's higher profile, on the other hand, maybe suggests that he thinks the record is realistically achievable, and he is going full-throttle for it and is therefore happy for everyone to be in on it.

But again this is pure supposition.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 13 September, 2015, 09:31:42 pm
The easiest option is for Steve to shorten his lunch stop. That would require eating on the bike, which might need somebody handing him up a musette of food (including a thermos/ bidon of hot soup during winter?).

I fear logic has left the room.

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 13 September, 2015, 09:36:12 pm
I suppose another thing to consider is that Steve himself may not want too much focus or outside attention on the attempt for fear it puts more pressure on him, especially if he isn't convinced that he can actually break the record (which he is recently on record as stating).

I think the point about undue pressure is a good one. While well meaning, some of the comments here along the lines of "only 205 miles, pick it up a bit!" may not be what he needs to hear from us. He is well aware of his schedules and what he is capable of doing day-by-day. Certainly more than we are.

BTW, Ian H seems to be more positive about the functioning of the support team (as reported on CycleChat).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 13 September, 2015, 09:47:27 pm
Hi,

Just some thoughts.

1. The reason why records are there is because they are hard. Success is not a given.

2. We should stop obsessing about the feed back we get from the "team". I give no time to this attempt, I have admiration for those who do.

3. There is little or nothing we can do about Steve's speed except organise support riders. This may happen on exceptional occasions, but not really often enough to aid the mileage, but may help Steve's state of mind.

4. We are all supporters and that is why we are posting here.

5. There is a tone of superiority from some that I feel is not founded from some posters. This is off putting and I wonder if the people who I reference are self aware enough to realise the way they come over.

6. Go Steve  :thumbsup:

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 13 September, 2015, 11:51:10 pm


He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.



Mike, who organised the hosts, has moved to Malaysia.

Ahhh so that's where Mike Wallis is now - thanks for this info - I hadn't heard before!
 ???
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: teethgrinder on 14 September, 2015, 09:20:33 am
Lack of media coverage is sort of deliberate.
Those interviews with the press are a lot of work to plan and if done very well will cost at least 10 miles.
I can't afford to throw that kind of mileage away.
It can only be done on the road with a cycling journalist who rides with me (which has been done twice)
An accompanying motor vehicle would need to comply with UMCA rules or risk getting me disqualified and there is a lot of hassle there.
Simply put, talking costs miles.

After the event, in August next year, everyone can have what they want from me. I'll be out of work so will have time for interviews etc. But now is the time for me to keep riding.

There should be a short film out soon from last night. Even that meant a late start today. Today will be a strategicaly low mileage. Yesterday was pretty good in good conditions but the wind is going to make things tricky today.
Even that short film took a lot of work. My going away for the weekend stuffed up the original plans but I had to do it to get the best mileage I could.

Travelodging seems to be better than hosting. It opens up my options a lot more so I can use the best roads for the wind conditions rather than have to do loops into headwinds etc


Mileage 20 miles up on last week and those 20 miles were done with 20 minutes more riding time, so must be getting faster too, though the last 2 days were very good conditions.
Current aim is to build up on what I am doing I expect it to happen very slowly.
Still have the post PBP lurking in the background too so I still need to be a bit carefull.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: tonyh on 14 September, 2015, 09:31:22 am
Masterly work Steve, both the riding (as ever) and the writing (as ever; straight to the various points, very clear and valuable to us supporters.)

Hope it didn't cost you a lot of miles.
All the best for today, however the mileage turns out.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 14 September, 2015, 10:21:16 am
Lack of media coverage is sort of deliberate.
Those interviews with the press are a lot of work to plan and if done very well will cost at least 10 miles.
I can't afford to throw that kind of mileage away.
It can only be done on the road with a cycling journalist who rides with me (which has been done twice)
An accompanying motor vehicle would need to comply with UMCA rules or risk getting me disqualified and there is a lot of hassle there.
Simply put, talking costs miles.

After the event, in August next year, everyone can have what they want from me. I'll be out of work so will have time for interviews etc. But now is the time for me to keep riding.

There should be a short film out soon from last night. Even that meant a late start today. Today will be a strategicaly low mileage. Yesterday was pretty good in good conditions but the wind is going to make things tricky today.
Even that short film took a lot of work. My going away for the weekend stuffed up the original plans but I had to do it to get the best mileage I could.

Travelodging seems to be better than hosting. It opens up my options a lot more so I can use the best roads for the wind conditions rather than have to do loops into headwinds etc


Mileage 20 miles up on last week and those 20 miles were done with 20 minutes more riding time, so must be getting faster too, though the last 2 days were very good conditions.
Current aim is to build up on what I am doing I expect it to happen very slowly.
Still have the post PBP lurking in the background too so I still need to be a bit carefull.


Good luck Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 14 September, 2015, 10:41:41 am
As ever, Steve's post is positive, concise, well thought through and full of common sense.  Would be nice to read more supportive rather than gloomy posts from contributors here.   Must be wearing for Steve to deal with such negativity.

Roll on Steve.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 14 September, 2015, 11:11:10 am
Steve shouldn't have to deal with these things and take away from his riding time. All he should need to do is talk to his team (by phone, while he is riding) and they should make things happen.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 14 September, 2015, 11:43:55 am
He certainly doesn't need Energy Vampires.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 14 September, 2015, 12:36:12 pm
^  :thumbsup:


‘Uniformed Lawmen Energy Vampires’

Being stopped by the police.


‘Paralytic Zombie Energy Vampires’.

Drunkards in the road.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mileater on 14 September, 2015, 04:04:13 pm
I'd just like to know who really is in charge of this record attempt?

Is Steve just winging it on  his own, with the occasional bit of home support from his pals in MK?
If so... fine... that may well work for Steve to just keep it as uncomplicated by others as possible.
But to maintain the charade that there is a 'crew' with a 'crew chief' implies there's some kind of organization, when in fact very little appears to be happening.

But, I can well understand why a host system would not be a good option... as a rando it's way faster just to crash at hotels than to show up at people's houses and be a guest. Chatting takes time away from sleep, and is very appealing after being alone all day. It's hard for both cyclist and host to resist!

But... I think it's time for this 'team' to show themselves and explain what it is they are really doing for Steve. Particularly the crew chief. We've seen no signs of participation/help happening from that quarter.  ???
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: aoxomoxoa on 14 September, 2015, 04:35:37 pm

But, I can well understand why a host system would not be a good option... as a rando it's way faster just to crash at hotels than to show up at people's houses and be a guest. Chatting takes time away from sleep, and is very appealing after being alone all day. It's hard for both cyclist and host to resist!


On the other hand the advantage of being hosted is that the host can upload data, sort out the bike and recharge batteries etc for the next day. Otherwise Steve has to do it himself when he could be eating, washing, sleeping etc.  So swings and roundabouts...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 14 September, 2015, 04:45:44 pm
A host should:

A good host should be much better than a random h/motel
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 14 September, 2015, 05:14:06 pm
If the team was functioning as ideally as we'd all like, Steve would never have to venture on any forum, nor answer any emails, or be responsible for anything other than riding the bike. That's probably a bit much to hope for given that I'm sure the team have their own lives to lead, and I'm pretty sure they're not able to be available 24/7 as Alicia is with Kurt. It would seem the bikes are getting serviced, so that's one major thing off Steve's mind, and Roger leads us to believe that money isn't currently a worry. I can totally see why road hotels are better than hosts in that there need be no prearrangement, which may be a bigger factor in Steve's daily routing decisions than getting someone else to do uploads, wash kit and provide sausages. I'd love to see someone providing a blog-style commentary, but that's a big commitment and would need perhaps unwelcome intrusion into Steve's bubble.

We're very fortunate here on YACF that we have Jo's excellent visualisations and Steve's occasional direct comms (which are worth their weight in gold!) to help us keep up with progress. It would be good to see a little more movement on the website and FB pages, but if it can't be, so be it. The thirst for information is understandable because the challenge is fascinating and literally awesome, and we've been spoiled a bit by Alicia's communications about Kurt which probably fit more neatly into the way we like to consume news these days. I know I've been a bit critical in the past, and I will continue to wish for a better PR effort on Steve's behalf, but the important thing is he can get out there every day and do what he does. If things off the bike start to affect the riding, then I'm sure there will be more of us who can step up and help in some small way.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 14 September, 2015, 05:27:55 pm
Yes, quite a few of us could step up and help but that can't happen unless Steve or his crew actually communicate and maybe even ask for some assistance. I don't see that happening, as it stands.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 14 September, 2015, 05:30:59 pm
Yes, for whatever reason and as Roger has alluded, YACF isn't held in high regard by (some of) Steve's team, so I guess we won't get that call unless Steve makes it himself. Which I'm sure he would do if he felt it was necessary.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 14 September, 2015, 08:06:36 pm
YACF isn't held in high regard by (some of) Steve's team,

For those of us following on a daily basis, it is largely our main form of update. Can anyone explain why YACF is looked down upon by some of the team?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Canardly on 14 September, 2015, 08:57:51 pm
Interesting question.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 14 September, 2015, 09:31:49 pm
YACF isn't held in high regard by (some of) Steve's team,

For those of us following on a daily basis, it is largely our main form of update. Can anyone explain why YACF is looked down upon by some of the team?

Well, I've nothing to do with any of them so I've no idea - I'm only going on what Roger has said. But I did wonder if there's a feeling that YACF has kind of adopted Steve and his quest - which is not surprising as he's a prominent AUK and so many of his fellow AUK luminaries are prolific contributors here, and from the time when Steve first proposed the idea here, it's been seen by us at YACF as a family thing. Maybe the team felt we were stepping on their toes?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 14 September, 2015, 09:43:55 pm
IIRC, although Steve has been aware of this record for a long time, it was a post by Hellymedic, closely followed by others, that encouraged Steve in his pursuit of this particular eccentricity. My impression was that, although it had been in his mind for some time, it was on YACF that the Word was made Flesh.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 14 September, 2015, 09:52:47 pm
I have followed Kurt and Steve and there is a humour in what Kurt posts, even some self mocking. The coverage Steve has had is very factual, to the point and earnest. When you are just reporting facts on a one year bike ride it can get a little repetitive. I want Steve to get the record, but over time I have warmed to Kurt. If I was doing some coverage I would attempt to do something slightly different rather than just factual and going on about time and miles. If we face the truth how many straight forward mileage reports will interest people? I do not just mean us cycling geeks but other people. I have nothing to tell these people about what riding a bike is like and why I love riding my bike overnight, but interesting stories about breakdowns, punctures or some people who have helped him and some stories.

I feel a sort of belonging to Steve's attempt and YACF has helped in this. If there is an anti YACF feeling in the team I hope it goes away and they feel the love from the assembled random ranks of cyclists that form the loose community of YACF.

So some coverage with something a little different from time to time. Please  :thumbsup:

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 14 September, 2015, 10:09:48 pm
1.  Steve is doing what Steve wants to do.
2.  Steve is not Kurt.  He is STEVE
3.  I bet that some mornings Steve doesn't even know himself exactly what the plan of the day is.

1.  Not for us or anyone else.
2.  And we love him
3.  As an ex random anarchic tourer I totally understand this.  Who needs pressure?  Adaptability is the name of the game.

In Steve we trust.

GO STEVE.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 14 September, 2015, 10:53:05 pm
 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rabbit on 16 September, 2015, 09:31:44 am
Lack of media coverage is sort of deliberate.
Those interviews with the press are a lot of work to plan and if done very well will cost at least 10 miles.
I can't afford to throw that kind of mileage away.
It can only be done on the road with a cycling journalist who rides with me (which has been done twice)
An accompanying motor vehicle would need to comply with UMCA rules or risk getting me disqualified and there is a lot of hassle there.
Simply put, talking costs miles.

After the event, in August next year, everyone can have what they want from me. I'll be out of work so will have time for interviews etc. But now is the time for me to keep riding.

There should be a short film out soon from last night. Even that meant a late start today. Today will be a strategicaly low mileage. Yesterday was pretty good in good conditions but the wind is going to make things tricky today.
Even that short film took a lot of work. My going away for the weekend stuffed up the original plans but I had to do it to get the best mileage I could.

Travelodging seems to be better than hosting. It opens up my options a lot more so I can use the best roads for the wind conditions rather than have to do loops into headwinds etc


Mileage 20 miles up on last week and those 20 miles were done with 20 minutes more riding time, so must be getting faster too, though the last 2 days were very good conditions.
Current aim is to build up on what I am doing I expect it to happen very slowly.
Still have the post PBP lurking in the background too so I still need to be a bit carefull.

Brilliant stuff Steve, good to hear an update of the riding and also some explanation of the situation which clarifies a lot of stuff.  Also the great interview with Idai, brilliant!  :thumbsup:

Yes, quite a few of us could step up and help but that can't happen unless Steve or his crew actually communicate and maybe even ask for some assistance. I don't see that happening, as it stands.

I don't usually agree with the Antipodean, but he is right

All the team have to do is ask.  There are loads of us on Social Media happy to post round snippets of info from the team.  The brilliant interview from Idai that has just been posted is fabulous, and great work from both.  You can see how it ate into Steve's time for the day though and it's totally understandable why this kind of intensive interview is a rare thing.  A monthly or weekly update from the team just regarding Steve and how he is/what he needs etc could be written up in a few lines after someone speaking to Leslie and the others without having to interfere with Steve's schedule in any way.  Just an idea. 

As for energy vampires etc - if the elephant in the room doesn't get mentioned it tends to get bigger and bigger until it suffocates everything or explodes in a right mess, and that is the biggest energy vampire of all. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 16 September, 2015, 10:47:08 am
1.  Steve is doing what Steve wants to do.
2.  Steve is not Kurt.  He is STEVE
3.  I bet that some mornings Steve doesn't even know himself exactly what the plan of the day is.

1.  Not for us or anyone else.
2.  And we love him
3.  As an ex random anarchic tourer I totally understand this.  Who needs pressure?  Adaptability is the name of the game.

In Steve we trust.

GO STEVE.
Lovely post, Basil.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 23 September, 2015, 07:45:26 am
Looking at Kurt's steady progress towards the record I think there is a benefit in the two record attempts (Steve and Kurt) becoming decoupled by several months.  If they really were neck and neck I think there would be a lot of pressure to "do a few extra miles" each day.  But there seems to be a very fine balance at 200+ miles per day about what you can do and what becomes too much.  The cost of having a bad day (and losing 100 miles) is too high.  So by being back to an independent basis they are both free to ride as they wish, which I think will mean they both get to the best mileage they can.  Chapeau to both of them.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 23 September, 2015, 08:22:51 am
I think that's a good point. While it might have made good spectator sport for us, it would have put some serious extra pressure on Steve and Kurt had they been neck and neck. The situation (that they've managed to avoid) is reminiscent of the apparent truce in using extra support between Tommy Godwin and Bernard Bennett in the summer of 1939 to prevent the continuation of unhealthy daily distances.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Byronius Maximus on 08 October, 2015, 12:38:52 pm
It's probably been covered already (apologies if so, not a religious follower of the forum!), but it's occurred to me that next year is a leap year....I assume the HAMR is for a 365 day period, rather than Steve having come up with a cunning way to squeeze and extra day's riding into his record attempt? ;-)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 08 October, 2015, 12:50:23 pm
Yes, hamr is for a 365 consecutive day period.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 08 October, 2015, 03:46:44 pm
Indeed, 365 days for the HAM'R, although, as Citizen Fish no doubt can confirm, I believe for some of the historical records that were achieved in leap years (Authur Humbles, 1932; Walter Greaves, 1936), the full 366 days of the leap year were counted. However, in both cases, the riders started a few days late in January, so in fact both rode for fewer than 365 days.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 08 October, 2015, 06:21:28 pm
An amusing account of Walter Greaves.

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/features/?id=2006/woodland_greaves
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 08 October, 2015, 08:31:21 pm
Indeed, 365 days for the HAM'R, although, as Citizen Fish no doubt can confirm, I believe for some of the historical records that were achieved in leap years (Authur Humbles, 1932; Walter Greaves, 1936), the full 366 days of the leap year were counted. However, in both cases, the riders started a few days late in January, so in fact both rode for fewer than 365 days.

True, Greaves also missed a fortnight due to injury.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tim Hall on 17 October, 2015, 10:05:24 am
I really like the "title as comment" stuff that the Strava rides show. Before it was "Morning ride. Morning ride. Morning ride."  Now we get a snippet of what's going on: "Pretty strong wind from the north today" for Wenesday, "Another late start and a good steady ride." for Thursday and "Good day's ride. The route worked well. Got up earlier than usual and could have done more but decided to save my strength for a better day when I won't have to fight the wind so much." for Friday.   Excellent.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 17 October, 2015, 10:27:40 am
Thanks for highlighting that Tim  :thumbsup:  I haven't signed in for ages but shall put that back on the daily ritual.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 17 October, 2015, 10:40:15 am
  I quite liked the symbolism of Morning Ride, Morning Ride, ad infinitum.  It spoke of the daily drudgery, the repetition and consistent toil that a record attempt seems to entail.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 17 October, 2015, 11:17:51 am
An amusing account of Walter Greaves.

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/features/?id=2006/woodland_greaves

That's a great read! I chuckled to myself quite a few times.  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 17 October, 2015, 07:22:47 pm
Ooooh! Congratulations to CitizenFish. Looking forward to reading this...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRiUGQ0WUAAmNlS.jpg)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ian H on 17 October, 2015, 07:37:05 pm


For those of us following on a daily basis, it is largely our main form of update. Can anyone explain why YACF is looked down upon by some of the team?


It isn't.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 17 October, 2015, 09:33:42 pm
Ooooh! Congratulations to CitizenFish. Looking forward to reading this

Jo, you made centre spread. Please email me your address and I will send a copy when back from my latest bike adventure
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 18 October, 2015, 11:16:59 am
Not often I order a book without a nosey first, but on this occasion I have taken a blind punt. Ordered yesterday. Postman awaited!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 18 October, 2015, 05:06:13 pm


For those of us following on a daily basis, it is largely our main form of update. Can anyone explain why YACF is looked down upon by some of the team?


It isn't.

As you will see from that run of posts, it was an allegation made by someone else which I picked up on. I'm glad to hear it's not so. I'm also pleased to see Steve adding his own words to his Strava entries, plus much more frequent FB comments, which make a huge difference to our ability to feel connected to his attempt. Thanks, Steve! :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bobby on 18 October, 2015, 08:50:30 pm
"Current thoughts on the record attempt?"

I rode exactly 'one Godwin' yesterday, I simply cannot believe that Steve & Kurt do that & more EVERY DAY.  I'm knackered today, it's easy to forget how far that actually is to ride - I take my hat off to them both, it's amazing.  Keep going Steve and Kurt  :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pickled Onion on 19 October, 2015, 08:01:11 am
Not often I order a book without a nosey first, but on this occasion I have taken a blind punt. Ordered yesterday. Postman awaited!

On Amazon it says:

Only 6 left in stock - Order soon
Only 2 left in stock - Order soon
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 19 October, 2015, 08:22:56 am
Not often I order a book without a nosey first, but on this occasion I have taken a blind punt. Ordered yesterday. Postman awaited!

On Amazon it says:

Only 6 left in stock - Order soon
Only 2 left in stock - Order soon

I ordered direct from the publishers Vertebrate Publishing in Sheffield. Cheaper than Amazon.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 19 October, 2015, 10:14:47 am
"Current thoughts on the record attempt?"

I rode exactly 'one Godwin' yesterday, I simply cannot believe that Steve & Kurt do that & more EVERY DAY.  I'm knackered today, it's easy to forget how far that actually is to ride - I take my hat off to them both, it's amazing.  Keep going Steve and Kurt  :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

I was thinking the same thing.  I rode 10 miles shy of a Godwin on Saturday and my legs are still grumbling.  It is quite humbling to realise that as "tough" as I think I am, I'm just a featherweight compared to Kurt, Steve and Miles.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hatler on 21 October, 2015, 05:43:53 pm
One thing that does stand out for me from jo's amazing visualisation of all this is the steepness of the Godwin curve (based on his actual daily distances) during the Summer months. It's interesting to see how TG planned his two curves on similar lines with a very clear reference to Godwin, whereas what's happened in reality is that TG (and Kurt for that matter) have a much much flatter curve. Part of TG's curve's flatness may be attributable to his recent re-start, in that his Jan 1st plan combined the effects of being super fit with the Summer months, whereas now these are out of phase.

Whichever way you look at it, and however it turns out, the whole thing (as in the effort and tenacity involved) is completely outside my comprehension.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 22 October, 2015, 10:34:59 am
[ May the lord forgive me for not reading every post in October. ]

Could someone update me on Steve's leg problem? Is this a new thing, or a recurrence from the moped interaction?

A Humble Ignorant Follower.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 22 October, 2015, 10:43:57 am
It's a new thing apparently- on his other leg :facepalm:  hopefully he's managing it and it's not worsening.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Justin(e) on 22 October, 2015, 04:46:37 pm
Ooooh! Congratulations to CitizenFish. Looking forward to reading this...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRiUGQ0WUAAmNlS.jpg)

How exciting.  Congrats
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 22 October, 2015, 05:02:25 pm
Ooooh! Congratulations to CitizenFish. Looking forward to reading this...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRiUGQ0WUAAmNlS.jpg)

How exciting.  Congrats

Indeed, nice one CF. Look forward to reading it!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 23 October, 2015, 08:04:03 am
Yay!

My "The Year" book arrived too.

Look forward to some cosy reading and a revised 2nd edition in 2016.

Thanks Citizenfish.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 23 October, 2015, 10:17:17 am
I think this weekend, given that Steve has had some issues this week, would be a great time for one of Idai's excellent interviews  :thumbsup:.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 23 October, 2015, 06:01:04 pm
Yay!

My "The Year" book arrived too.

Look forward to some cosy reading and a revised 2nd edition in 2016.

Thanks Citizenfish.  :thumbsup:

Pleasure. Hope you all enjoy it. Was an epic journey trying to piece the whole thing together. So much stuff was binned over the years (Godwins mileage cards) that could have made the story utterly complete. Also we were working to a 2015 deadline before Kurt and Steve decided they were going to step up. I look forward to revising it....might have to wait till August 2nd though.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: drgannet on 03 December, 2015, 06:57:38 pm
Unfortunately, given Steve's current form, probably over for the 2nd attempt. Absolutely no criticism, because this is dead hard and Steve has been unlucky with injury and illness, but the likely deficit to Tommy looks like it will be too great to recover.

Any thoughts about a final 3rd attempt from January (rest up, sort out the diet and illnes, suitable training and possibly some different tactics)?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 03 December, 2015, 07:02:29 pm
I think it is right on the ragged edge. Unless things change dramatically this month, it'll be over. The new diet is a crapshoot that currently just looks crap.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 03 December, 2015, 07:38:31 pm
Agreed. Nearly over  :-\
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 03 December, 2015, 08:18:24 pm
Except that...

At long last, and Very Overdue IMO, there may be a change in tactic.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 03 December, 2015, 08:49:54 pm
As I pointed out back in February, using his home as a base, map out a couple of 40 mile loops, ride, home, eat and repeat. Do this through the Winter months and knock out the longer milage over the Summer cycling through the flatlands.

The thing here looking at both records is consistency in anything and everything. In terms of what you eat and what works, the amount of rest you get, riding time etc. Steve and his team need to think hard about what works for Steve and work from that and remember what record they are trying to break. FFS you are not trying to break the Tommy Godwin record - you are breaking the highest annual milage record which is recognised as being held by Tommy. A simple distinction yet confound in it's implication on strategy. Forget about what Tommy done and where Tommy went, that was then, this is now.

This is by far the main reason that Kurt has suceeded, that is because he has recognised what record he is trying to break. It matters not to him, that Tommy cycled here or there, the only thing that matters is MILES, and with this the easiest way to ride them and be supported through them. Hence riding on the flatlands and being supported by Alicia. And when not on the road riding close to his home in Ark'sas doing loop after loop. Steve could quite easily do this from his home in MK, yes it would be boring but so what? It worked for Kurt.

Personally I'd wait until Jan when Searvogel has finished to see what new record has been set, because (with exception) of a serious personal misfortune to himself he will break the record - which I said he would - back in Jan - because he simply recognised what needed to be done and looked at the easiest way of achieving this.

And from what I've seen, Steve's team need to do far more and recognise when he needs help. Don't let him ride 60 miles in seven hours into a headwind before he had that unfortunate incident and don't make him go on a new diet half way through a record attempt in the Winter. ???

Also it might be worth investing in a power meter, working out Steve's FTP and then working out the intensity of his rides using his power relative to his FTP. This will be far more consistent then using a HRM and would allow Steve to perhaps ride at a slightly higher power/speed whilst still keeping the intensity to that of an endurance ride.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andrew531 on 03 December, 2015, 09:06:20 pm
I make it that Steve is about 40 miles a day down over the last three weeks. That cannot continue. It must be demoralising for him to see how things have gone against him. I doubt he's a quitter. Hope that this can be turned around.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: chrisbainbridge on 03 December, 2015, 09:09:16 pm
So far I think what Steve has shown is that nobody can beat the Tommy Godwin record which was set in a specific time and place.

I agree with LMT.  If Steve wants the highest annual mileage record then get on and do it.  Flat roads, no wind, circuits of mind numbing boredom, etc but doable.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Freya on 03 December, 2015, 09:20:32 pm
I don't think he is out of it yet. If he has a decent winter I still think he could make up what he has lost, but it is looking a bit grim. As for starting again... that would mean effectively riding for two years with almost no break. He'd have to be pretty tough to do that. (but then again it seems that he is)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 03 December, 2015, 09:46:48 pm
I am sure he is tough enough, but whether he wants to,  is another matter. He has previously said he doesn't want the challenge to go on forever and to have an end in sight.

It must be totally demoralising to have had to restart due to the motorcyclist accident, but now it looks like the change of diet, mid challenge (why?) has combined with the winds to slow things down significantly.

Whilst winter was always accepted as a time when mileages might need to be compromised, the problem is budgeting for massively increased mileages later on. Even Spring and Summer are not without their bad weather days.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 03 December, 2015, 09:58:49 pm
Quote
As I pointed out back in February, using his home as a base, map out a couple of 40 mile loops, ride, home, eat and repeat.

i did my first 300 buy linking together 3x100km loops that centred on my house, don't think i was ever further than 50km from home, a lot mentally easier than being 200km from home in bad weather
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 03 December, 2015, 10:37:58 pm
It's worth remembering that lots of people have held this record, not just Godwin, and that they've come from several different countries.  By staying in Britain during this weather, Steve's making a rod for his own back - especially when I believe he has an invitation from someone down in the south of France.  It's a world record, so you can break it anywhere in the world.  The thing is, he's not going to break it at 100 miles a day.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 03 December, 2015, 11:32:57 pm
Steve and his team need to think hard about what works for Steve and work from that and remember what record they are trying to break. FFS you are not trying to break the Tommy Godwin record - you are breaking the highest annual milage record which is recognised as being held by Tommy.

I don't think it is for us to tell Steve or the team what type of record they are trying to break. Perhaps his motivation for the endeavour could be different from yours. If you want to get all technical about the UMCA record, he will take that anyway because he will be the first in his age category, but that may not be what is continuing to drive him to ride though some very harsh conditions at the moment.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: marcusjb on 03 December, 2015, 11:53:07 pm
I accept that things are clearly very tough for Steve at the moment, however, let's get behind him and not write him off quite yet.

If I read it correctly, he is (not quite) as far below the line as Kurt has been. He is nowhere near as far below the line as Tommy Godwin got.

I accept the line is more than likely to move up, but, relatively speaking, not by an awful lot.

These next few weeks are critical. Go Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 03 December, 2015, 11:55:00 pm
Lots of pessimism around at the moment, understandably given the recent problems Steve has faced. However it's worth remembering that nearly a year ago Steve faced the challenge of riding at around 206 miles per day for 12 months top and tailed by winter weather. Today he faces the challenge of 8 months of riding at around 209 miles per day with a month's less of winter and a summer finish with the chance of some long days of big miles. It's also worth remembering that he is running roughly the same deficit as Kurt was at this same point, 4 months into his challenge (around 750 miles below Godwin pace).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 04 December, 2015, 12:02:51 am
Jo talks sense, as ever. When this is all over I will be very interested to hear the reasons behind Steve's diet change, because before that happened he was plugging away brilliantly at the required mileage.

I sincerely hope that he can get it together in time to start increasing his miles up to 200mpd again around late January. After tomorrow, sunset only has 2 more minutes to lose before it starts getting later again on 14th December. Sunrise continues to get later well past the solstice (22/12/2015) right up to the end of the year before rising earlier again. As long as the temperatures stay above freezing, and the winds are not too strong, the only problem Steve will have is riding at night, and he has already said how much he enjoys this.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 04 December, 2015, 07:32:04 am
Quote
As I pointed out back in February, using his home as a base, map out a couple of 40 mile loops, ride, home, eat and repeat.

i did my first 300 buy linking together 3x100km loops that centred on my house, don't think i was ever further than 50km from home, a lot mentally easier than being 200km from home in bad weather
And how did Day2 of this plan work out for you?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 04 December, 2015, 08:26:20 am
40-mile loops are too long.  Kurt is succeeding in this challenge by credit-card touring.  The most effective thing for Steve to implement right now would be a "hamster wheel" of 5 miles or so (perhaps New Bradwell - crossing the Gt Ouse - Haversham, or Little Linford - Black Horse - Newport Pagnell) so that he can ditch the panniers.  That alone would win him an extra 1 or 2 miles per hour.  Then, attracting people to ride with would help him in the windy conditions, raise his spirits, mean that he doesn't have to be the person who stops for food (someone else could sit out a lap and get the food for him), someone else can carry bidons, he could swap bikes if necessary(!), leave a depot of clothes or food (perhaps at a pub) on the circuit etc etc.  Without a step change in strategy, it's really hard to see this attempt lasting past Christmas. :-\
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jamesld8 on 04 December, 2015, 09:11:39 am
Carrying panniers  :o

Looking at Kurt`s bike and cycledr both are riding stripped down very lightweight machines which will undoubtedly have a speed edge over a rather heavier (sturdier ) bike and in particular if extra luggage is being carried. From my own riding experience I find that my lighter bikes not only feel nicer (= psychological boost maybe) to ride but  are maybe 1 kph quicker. 1 kph quicker over duration of Steve`s attempt could be a 5000km difference !

So local shorter loops, particularly when weather is difficult, would seem to have a lot of plus points in that could ride a less laden even completely different setup lighter bike, call back at home for food , rest, engage with other riders taking turns on a loop. It might be a boring way to do it, but plus points at moment would IMHO seem to outweigh any negatives
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 04 December, 2015, 09:21:53 am
With all this good advice we are dispensing (11 months and 4 days since he started and several years after he started planning it), surely the record's now in the bag for Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 04 December, 2015, 10:33:02 am
Yebbut, facetious posts aside, a great deal of that planning kind of went out of the window when it was realised that 280m+ days throughout the summer are not sustainable.  This was a lesson that had to be learnt, but, once learnt, Steve reined in his expectations of what can be achieved at best in the spring and summer months.  Team Steve need to consider other reactive measures (besides the vehicle transfers which haven't yet materialised) to save this attempt. Miles' attempt was unsuccessful mostly because he did not put to his use the intelligence garnered by Kurt's, Steve's, and his own successes and failures.

I'm worried that Steve's going for an early start today; his track record shows that significantly increased mileage on one day is usually nullified by tougher subsequent days and ends up as a deficit when seen over a three- or four-day period.  Kurt has had success with short circuits, with company, and with lightweight kit (all of which Team Steve could try), and with the recumbent and with warm weather (which are admittedly trickier to implement, or would take some considerable planning).  To paraphrase the Walker Brothers, Steve needs to make it easy on himself, especially as he is adjusting to his new diet (which I would not question if it were considered by experts to be essential to his long-term health).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jamesld8 on 04 December, 2015, 10:46:01 am
With all this good advice we are dispensing (11 months and 4 days since he started and several years after he started planning it), surely the record's now in the bag for Steve.

as Legs also refers---at start attempt Steve had thought thro`, over years , what he at time felt  was best approach; unfortunately there have been some setbacks and I for one see no harm in suggestions of perhaps a variance to original and well conceived plan A when it may not be going to Plan A. So hopefully good `advice` is received in a good spirit,
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: DaveE128 on 04 December, 2015, 11:26:24 am
Lots of pessimism around at the moment, understandably given the recent problems Steve has faced. However it's worth remembering that nearly a year ago Steve faced the challenge of riding at around 206 miles per day for 12 months top and tailed by winter weather. Today he faces the challenge of 8 months of riding at around 209 miles per day with a month's less of winter and a summer finish with the chance of some long days of big miles. It's also worth remembering that he is running roughly the same deficit as Kurt was at this same point, 4 months into his challenge (around 750 miles below Godwin pace).

All good points, and yes, there is plenty of time to make up some distance, but every day I am willing the ever-steepening downward curve on your excellent visualisation to start flattening out and start to curve back up, but we each day I check we aren't there yet... It feels concerning seeing the trajectory at the moment.  Really hope the new diet works out in the end!

If it was me attempting this (hahaha!) then I think I'd be tempted to take a leaf out of Kurt's book, and find a nice flat sheltered loop and do the hamster wheel with some company, even if it's just once a week. Perhaps it would help at this point, in terms of mileage total and perhaps psychologically too. I know Steve is keen to stick to the spirit of TG's record though, and I'm sure there are plenty of other good reasons that this isn't the right approach for him.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 04 December, 2015, 12:34:05 pm
richmond park would be a good place for the "hamster wheel" approach. no traffic lights, fairly sheltered, not too hilly, and there are so many cyclists who would be honoured to give a tow and chat.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 04 December, 2015, 12:58:11 pm
Even better places would be the fast time trial courses up and down the (eastern side of the) country.  Not so many tows off passing riders but a lot more from HGVs and coaches!  They may not be much fun at busy times but they are not always busy.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: 24hourmaths on 04 December, 2015, 01:48:26 pm
Even better places would be the fast time trial courses up and down the (eastern side of the) country.  Not so many tows off passing riders but a lot more from HGVs and coaches!  They may not be much fun at busy times but they are not always busy.

I thought this as well. As he's over that way, a couple of loops of the E2 every so often wouldn't harm.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 04 December, 2015, 02:01:01 pm
Even better places would be the fast time trial courses up and down the (eastern side of the) country.  Not so many tows off passing riders but a lot more from HGVs and coaches!  They may not be much fun at busy times but they are not always busy.
Catch 22, though: not much of a draft when it's not busy; grim and a little bit scary when it is.  Trogging up and down a DC at 14mph on your own, when you're tired shattered, is very different from racing a TT with signage and other riders around.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 04 December, 2015, 02:17:03 pm
This time of year is dire for any kind of outdoor physical activity in the UK.  Its dark.  Its windy.  Everyone is stressed - and that makes more stress for anyone rusing the roads.  These are all psychological factors that have a physiogical impact as well.  Although the curve is downward at the moment that doesn't mean a write off.  It does mean that Steve will have to pick his mileage up earlier in the spring that he would otherwise have had to do - so he is more reliant on a benign spring than otherwise. 

It also shows Steve's wisdom in starting his attempt in a calendar year so that when he got the short days in November and December he would have had the incentive (as Kurt's recent mileages have shown) of being "almost there".
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 04 December, 2015, 02:46:34 pm
Whilst my fastest ever TT time was on the A1, I really wouldn't recommend it to anyone these days, however experienced.

One dozy half asleep lorry driver and you are mincemeat.

Also the constant fumes are not great, so I think Steve's current strategy of slightly quieter roads has merit as well as being more pleasant to ride.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 04 December, 2015, 03:12:42 pm
IMO this talk of Steve's 2nd attempt being on the rocks is a bit premature, his average since August can easily be caught up if he puts in the sort of mileages he did after recovery from his ankle;

But it's looking extremely unlikely he will beat Tommy's record, Kurt will do that
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 04 December, 2015, 06:02:03 pm
Lets say Steve gets to day 200 (so March or thereabouts) and is 2,500 miles behind the Godwin Line.  He will need to ride 220.8 miles a day to match Tommy on day 365.  Slightly more for the Kurt Line (say 6 to 7 miles a day on top from day 200, if Kurt ends up 1000 miles ahead).

This suggests to me that he still has a fair bit of spare capacity to use up over the winter.  Assuming he is comfortable with the daunting task of riding 220 to 230 miles a day, day in, day out over the Spring and Summer.

In other words I don't myself think its time for Steve to panic (or more correctly, observers who wish him well as I'd imagine Steve realises all of this) even if the days of riding 80 miles short of a Godwin are presumably as frustrating as hell for him.  Those will pass, in all likelihood.   

Whilst jo's charts are very informative (almost to the exclusion of all other sources) they are perhaps distorting the situation Steve is in and making it look more dramatic than it actually is.  If the absolute difference (around 800 miles) is spread over the remaining time (around 3 miles a day more than a Godwin needed) then it still looks very achievable.  For now and for some time.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 05 December, 2015, 03:10:09 am
IMO this talk of Steve's 2nd attempt being on the rocks is a bit premature, his average since August can easily be caught up if he puts in the sort of mileages he did after recovery from his ankle;

But it's looking extremely unlikely he will beat Tommy's record, Kurt will do that





 :thumbsup:

Easily caught up? ????


. This
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 05 December, 2015, 07:44:05 am
The change of diet has affected Steve far more than I'm sure he or his team feared, but it's done now and the lost miles can't be undone. The double whammy of the diet change and the deterioration in the weather has made life very difficult for him. Steve has shown in the couple months before the change that he is capable of riding at greater than 'Standard Godwin' pace consistently when things are going well, and I'm sure he'll get back to that. Whether he can recover the lost miles on top of that is rather more difficult to predict, but I'm bloody certain he'll try!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 05 December, 2015, 05:27:27 pm
Sadly (and I mean that) I don't think Steve will get / hold the record. Nor will anyone attempting it in the UK. There are far easier (for certain values of "easy") places in the world to do the sort of mileages necessary. The UK is too crowded, too trafficed and too hilly.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: sg37409 on 05 December, 2015, 05:35:41 pm
Agreed, rat fletcher.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 05 December, 2015, 06:40:31 pm
Sadly (and I mean that) I don't think Steve will get / hold the record. Nor will anyone attempting it in the UK. There are far easier (for certain values of "easy") places in the world to do the sort of mileages necessary. The UK is too crowded, too trafficed and too hilly.

Luckily, Arthur Humbles, Walter Greaves, Tommy Godwin, Rene Menzies did not share that view. I think 80,000 is possible in the UK and Kurt won't get 80k. I think Tommy could have done 80k without the poor winter of 1939.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 06 December, 2015, 07:08:29 am
I'm just sitting back and thinking what Steve has achieved, 58000 miles on a bike in a year and counting - even with a period off for a broken ankle. 

1) That's further than anyone had cycled in a year in the last 76 years (there seems to have been a lot of fuss about some tennis players winning a trophy for the first time in 79 years recently

2) Steve had the courage to set out and give it a go, and even with his injury, proved that tackling 'the impossible record' was possible

3) He's created interest in the record which, assuming Kurt stays upright, will be beaten, and will have another serious attempt next year.

4) For all the talk of attempts in good climates - the trials and tribulations of Miles Smith, who had flat fast roads and a Mediterranean climate, show just how tough this is, I think other challengers such as Bruce Berkeley will find this too.

And he still has a good chance of beating the record.  On something like a '24' there is always a tough spot during the night - when the legs don't work, and you lose speed.  But that's often forgotten the next morning.  For Steve 15th November - the end of February is the equivalent of that night, where he will have bad days and hold it together, but I think you will see if he does (and I have no reason to suspect that he won't), that the speeds will pick up in the spring.

Forza Steve
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 06 December, 2015, 08:34:33 am
Great posting C E T  thanks
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 06 December, 2015, 10:53:07 am
I haven't experienced the Melbourne climate, but I think it can change very dramatically from day to day. I spoke to my daughter there one day last month and on the day in question it was as warm in Essex (17°) as it was in Melbourne. The previous day the temperature reached 34°C. That unpredictability must bring with it its own problems.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 06 December, 2015, 10:55:24 am
Wot CET said.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 06 December, 2015, 11:13:15 am
The "4 seasons in 1 day" Crowded House song was about Melbourne.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 06 December, 2015, 02:20:55 pm
I haven't experienced the Melbourne climate, but I think it can change very dramatically from day to day. I spoke to my daughter there one day last month and on the day in question it was as warm in Essex (17°) as it was in Melbourne. The previous day the temperature reached 34°C. That unpredictability must bring with it its own problems.

SE Australia has a weather cycle driven by fronts that pass along the south coast and turn up into the Tasman Sea.  A spell of settled weather is followed by increasing winds from the north west and then the "Southerly Buster" which can reach gusts of about 50mph.  In the summer this does result in a sudden temperature drop of 15 - 20C over 2 -5 hours as air heated up over the Australian deserts is replaced with cold air from the South Atlantic.  However, as someone who grew up in Plymouth, it was reasonably tame compared with a channel storm, and the strong winds didn't last for days on end like they do here. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 06 December, 2015, 05:55:29 pm
C E T   What a mime of knowledge you are.  Thanks for sharing with us and please continue to do so!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 06 December, 2015, 06:43:46 pm
If Steve can start and continue with the 'positive gradient' asap, doing a Godwin +7miles/day, he'd back at the WR line by end of March-ish (I think).  Even if the line was reached by beginning of May, he'd have three summer months to have Kurt S's new total (assuming etc...) in his sights.   OYTT is just such a monumental task!

Go Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: tonyh on 06 December, 2015, 08:14:44 pm
Great posting C E T  thanks

Yes!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 December, 2015, 08:50:55 am
If Steve can start and continue with the 'positive gradient' asap, doing a Godwin +7miles/day, he'd back at the WR line by end of March-ish (I think).  Even if the line was reached by beginning of May, he'd have three summer months to have Kurt S's new total (assuming etc...) in his sights.   OYTT is just such a monumental task!

Go Steve.








He will not be averaging much over 190 per day now until early March's.  Then will need 220-230 every day for at least 90 days approx to catch up.   If this very mild winter continues it will help no end. Good luck Steve
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 07 December, 2015, 10:43:52 am
Although, Steve averaged ~180mls/dy Jan-Mar, when the strategy was different and the plan was to do really big miles in the summer AFAIA.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 December, 2015, 10:56:43 am
I see that Kurt is going to finish his year with a 300km Randonee in Florida. That makes quite a neat end to his story. It would be nice to film that, especially if was possible to get Steve out there for a bit of warm-weather riding.
Steve will still have 7 months to go at that point, and a trip to Florida would answer some of the questions about the effects of weather on the attempt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: marcusjb on 07 December, 2015, 11:04:26 am
a trip to Florida would answer some of the questions about the effects of weather on the attempt.

And jetlag.  ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 December, 2015, 11:07:15 am
That rather assumes that Steve would be constrained by a day/night schedule. Numerous riders from around the world didn't find this a problem on PBP. An interesting point for a short film in itself.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 07 December, 2015, 11:30:40 am
Internet Scepticism Trigger #58:
Any post containing "... didn't find this a problem ... "

e.g. "1939 transmissions  were clearly inferior to what is available now."
"Well Tommy Godwin didnt find this a problem when he set the record."

QED!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 December, 2015, 01:25:28 pm
The finish of a TT has obvious appeal as a subject. I've done a few 24s over the years. So Kurt's finish is something I've thought about. It would be an expensive thing to do speculatively, but I've never been to the States.

The question then arises as to how to emphasise that it's not the end of the story, with Steve still riding for more than half a year.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 07 December, 2015, 01:27:53 pm
The question then arises as to how to emphasise that it's not the end of the story, with Steve still riding for more than half a year.

Take Steve with you?  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 December, 2015, 01:40:03 pm
The Raleigh he rides is based on a US model, and they make a 'Record Ace', so there's a potential tie-in there.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 December, 2015, 10:51:13 pm
It makes a lot of sense for the UMCA and Kurt for the challenge to continue, not to mention Strava. This is all assuming that all goes to plan of course.

One of the joys of Audax for me is the thought that at any time there is someone, somewhere, who's keeping the dream alive, and it doesn't matter to me what country that is happening in.

That's the appeal of the One Year Time Trial to me, it's a pinnacle of that idea of audacity. So passing on that baton would be a critical moment. The ideal would be to record the moment of passing the current record, and the passing of the year.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: fussballclub on 08 December, 2015, 07:03:58 am
You forgot to say in Marsh Gibbon of course.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: DaveE128 on 08 December, 2015, 01:24:34 pm
I'm pleased to see that the mileage graph seems to show a point of inflection a few days back, that is, downward trend is now slowing. Hopefully this means that it won't be too long before Steve will be averaging enough miles a day to begin catching up some of the lost ground.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 08 December, 2015, 05:51:11 pm
(http://craigdodson.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/half-full-pint-glass-beer.jpg)

I'm more a pint half empty kind of guy.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 08 December, 2015, 06:29:34 pm
I'm pleased to see that the mileage graph seems to show a point of inflection a few days back, that is, downward trend is now slowing. Hopefully this means that it won't be too long before Steve will be averaging enough miles a day to begin catching up some of the lost ground.

ie it's getting worse more slowly - the comfort of derivatives!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 09 December, 2015, 12:53:28 am


ie it's getting worse more slowly - the comfort of derivatives!
[/quote]





Yes  :facepalm:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 09 December, 2015, 07:23:43 am
Yesterday 130km  :(
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 09 December, 2015, 11:41:10 am
At the moment Steve gives the impression of someone drowning not waving.

If I was in the same situation, I'd find riding alone a very lonely place given the way things have turned out since the last fortnight of November.  My inner voice would be getting right on my tits.

Hopefully his support team and his close network are giving him an opportunity to discuss all options and providing a sounding board. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Hatless on 09 December, 2015, 07:44:26 pm
Is it worse to run into a moped or a sports dietitian?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 09 December, 2015, 07:58:15 pm
At the moment Steve gives the impression of someone drowning not waving.

If I was in the same situation, I'd find riding alone a very lonely place given the way things have turned out since the last fortnight of November.  My inner voice would be getting right on my tits.

Hopefully his support team and his close network are giving him an opportunity to discuss all options and providing a sounding board.
To be fair, his last few social media posts [that I've seen] have been really upbeat. even when he only rides 140ish miles!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 09 December, 2015, 09:46:38 pm
So were Miles' statements.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 10 December, 2015, 10:38:24 am
Steve's chat with police beside the A47 - Saturday night, on CyclingWeekly:
http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/long-distance-cyclist-steve-abraham-stopped-by-police-for-riding-on-an-a-road-203275

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 10 December, 2015, 11:28:02 am
A couple of policemen stop Steve for a chat about the dangers of dual-carriageways and cyclists.
What’s wrong with that?

Start moaning when the police show they are not concerned about the safety of cyclists.

All those cyclists who have never been approached by a policeman advising a ‘safer’ route, clearly haven’t the same mettle as Steve Abrams.

( A46 Warwick by-pass en route between Stratford on Avon and Measham during a 300km Midmesh )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 10 December, 2015, 12:01:36 pm
A couple of policemen stop Steve for a chat about the dangers of dual-carriageways and cyclists.
What’s wrong with that?

Start moaning when the police show they are not concerned about the safety of cyclists.

All those cyclists who have never been approached by a policeman advising a ‘safer’ route, clearly haven’t the same mettle as Steve Abrams.

( A46 Warwick by-pass en route between Stratford on Avon and Measham during a 300km Midmesh )

I'm well aware of the potential dangers of riding a bike on a dual carriageway and make the decision to ride on said road after taking this into account. I don't need a copper telling me what for. Unless they want to throw their keys away as I do believe they are more likely to have a crash and kill or seriously injure someone than me.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 10 December, 2015, 12:14:00 pm
A couple of policemen stop Steve for a chat about the dangers of dual-carriageways and cyclists.
What’s wrong with that?

Other than it being a waste of everybody's time?

How about that it's indicative that the police don't know the law.


That said, I'm surprised that it hasn't happened before, given the mileage Steve has clocked up.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 10 December, 2015, 12:15:30 pm

I'm well aware of the potential dangers of riding a bike on a dual carriageway and make the decision to ride on said road after taking this into account. I don't need a copper telling me what for.

Just because you are doesn't mean everyone is. The number of cyclists (ok, to "us", they're people on BSO's, but to the rest of the world, their cyclists) riding around morning and evening with no or ineffective lights at the moment is disgraceful. Oh they all wear hi-vis, but often car lights don't get that high to make the reflectives stand out,a nd often they're cheap and filthy. Only this morning I only just saw one such as he shot across my bows at a roundabout, and then only due to the wheel reflectors he had. His hi-vis was useless.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 10 December, 2015, 12:17:16 pm
A couple of policemen stop Steve for a chat about the dangers of dual-carriageways and cyclists.
What’s wrong with that?

How about that it's indicative that the police don't know the law.


They didn't arrest him, or caution him. They knew the law. He was on a horrid bit of road with plenty of alternatives that might be considered safer. Perhaps they were trying to be helpful?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 10 December, 2015, 12:20:59 pm
The reason why policemen stop and talk to cyclists on fast dual carriageways is because if they didn’t, after observing the cyclist and the cyclist is killed, the policeman would be held negligent of doing his duty.
The incident will be recorded in the officer's report. "The cyclist was advised against riding on the A47".

Is it every policeman’s duty to protect the citizen? Or at least advise on ‘safer’ routes for cyclists. Does the ‘To protect and to serve’ motto apply in the UK?

In a similar manner, an AUK Organiser will advise the riders not to use the A47 dual carriageway. Some newbie Auks will think “I don’t need an AUK Org telling me what for.” 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 10 December, 2015, 12:24:26 pm
They didn't arrest him, or caution him. They knew the law. He was on a horrid bit of road with plenty of alternatives that might be considered safer. Perhaps they were trying to be helpful?

Quite likely.

Much like the helmet and hi-vis people are trying to be helpful.  They don't realise it's political.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 10 December, 2015, 12:25:12 pm
Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 10 December, 2015, 12:28:06 pm
Current thoughts on the record attempt?

Random stops by well-meaning police are unlikely to case a statistically significant loss of mileage.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 10 December, 2015, 12:48:27 pm
Current thoughts on the record attempt?

Random stops by well-meaning police are unlikely to case a statistically significant loss of mileage.

Unexpected stops by ‘know it all’ crew-cab truck drivers who think they can forcibly change Steve’s route, might well end Steve’s attempt. Unless Steve knows a bit of Karate.
Tip, Stay off the A4177 between Warwick and Hatton.... Use the cycle path provided  :o
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 10 December, 2015, 01:19:24 pm
Current thoughts on the record attempt?

I find it very hard to find anything positive in recent progress.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 10 December, 2015, 01:48:58 pm
The reason why policemen stop and talk to cyclists on fast dual carriageways is because if they didn’t, after observing the cyclist and the cyclist is killed, the policeman would be held negligent of doing his duty.
The incident will be recorded in the officer's report. "The cyclist was advised against riding on the A47".

Is it every policeman’s duty to protect the citizen? Or at least advise on ‘safer’ routes for cyclists. Does the ‘To protect and to serve’ motto apply in the UK?

In a similar manner, an AUK Organiser will advise the riders not to use the A47 dual carriageway. Some newbie Auks will think “I don’t need an AUK Org telling me what for.”

Take this victim blaming elsewhere in a new thread and we'll debate the issue.....
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 10 December, 2015, 01:49:49 pm
Current thoughts on the record attempt?

I find it very hard to find anything positive in recent progress.

Which is a shame because as Winter's go compared to last year it's rather mild.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Veloman on 10 December, 2015, 02:04:56 pm
^^^ Thus far it has been rather mild but it has also been rather wet (very wet) and rather windy (very windy) which can't be of great help.  A few still, dry and cooler days would no doubt help.  If we get a bad winter with hard frosts (ice) and snow (reducing the effective width of the road) then it will be truly grim.

Pity funds are tight and Steve can't fly to better weather.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: marcusjb on 10 December, 2015, 02:17:37 pm
Pity funds are tight and Steve can't fly to better weather.

I am not sure if funds are tight (we simply don't know since fidgetbuzz stepped down as the money man).

I think it is possibly more related to Steve's drive to keep his attempt on a par with Tommy Godwins?  Stubbornness is a useful attribute in the long distance game, but may just count against you when doing something quite so long.

If funds were tight and that was stopping Steve do something, I am sure that a fund-raising drive within his current sponsors, and looking for new sponsors would yield results.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 10 December, 2015, 02:27:51 pm
My understanding is that Marcus is very close to the mark. I think Steve has forgotten that the majority of Tommy's attempt had a accompanying car with a dedicated person carrying extra clothes and handing up food and drinks along the road. That assistance alone is worth tens of miles per day. Kurt has certainly found that sort of assistance  very helpful.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 10 December, 2015, 03:00:28 pm
My experience of record chasing is that all rides are unique and can't be compared to one another.  You do what you can and what you need to rules permitting at the time you're racing or riding. To do otherwise is stupid.

Godwin wouldn't have hesitated swapping out his bike for a light weight modern machine......
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Freya on 10 December, 2015, 03:06:02 pm
Quote
I find it very hard to find anything positive in recent progress.

I think it is difficult to say things are going brilliantly at the moment, but as others have pointed out: All that matters is that Steve comes out of the winter period with an achievable target still in sight. He can afford to drop a fair few miles between now & March, yet still be in with a shout. Unless something really catastrophic happens, we won't really know whether he can do it for a few months. It is still too early to write him off IMHO.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 10 December, 2015, 03:39:48 pm
Steve needs to bear in mind that (as i'm sure he knows) that it is exponentially harder to claw back lost miles. everything compounds over the time against you - more strain on the body due to increased distances and less time for eating, sleeping and recovery. it's best, if possible, to keep close to 200mpd over the winter, especially when the weather is benign (it won't get better than recent few days).
alternatively, Steve can wait few years, learn from his current attempt, gain some speed and have another go - he's ten(?) years junior to Kurt. it's those who work smart (rather than hard) that achieve great results.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 10 December, 2015, 03:58:49 pm
Zig-Zag is on the money.

I'd say the daily mileage needs to be at least 205 miles per day. Accumulating more miles in deficit isn't sensible. There are only 24 hours in every day and 365 of them in this record attempt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 10 December, 2015, 04:18:44 pm
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him. Potentially it's an advantage, as Kurt points out in this very good article.

Quote
Searvogel is as haunted by the wind as any sailor. He tracks it obsessively on the website WindFinder.com, charting his course around prevailing patterns. Like a game of geophysical chess, it is about not simply that day’s winds but also the next. “You’ve got to know what’s going to happen tomorrow,” he told me. “If you ride yourself into a corner, the next day’s going to be hell. It’s probably about 5:30 or 6 p.m. before we know where we’ll be tomorrow.”

But Searvogel knew this morning’s inconvenience would only be temporary. “You always want to hit the easy button,” he says. A mileage record is a mileage record: there is no added distinction for feet climbed, watts burned, state lines crossed. Once we reached land’s end in Door County, we would turn around and catch a great big southerly express train of atmospheric disturbance projected for later that morning that would take us all the way down near Madison. “Tomorrow’s probably going to be a 250-mile day,” were his last words the night before, which rang in my ears like a threat.

http://www.outsideonline.com/2039276/hello-i-must-be-going
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 10 December, 2015, 04:29:41 pm
My understanding is that Marcus is very close to the mark. I think Steve has forgotten that the majority of Tommy's attempt had a accompanying car with a dedicated person carrying extra clothes and handing up food and drinks along the road. That assistance alone is worth tens of miles per day. Kurt has certainly found that sort of assistance  very helpful.

Godwin had only 5 months by my reckoning, May - August
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 10 December, 2015, 04:33:50 pm
OK, not the majority, the slight minority, but certainly the months that he consistently significantly exceeded his average daily mileage.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andrew531 on 10 December, 2015, 04:54:24 pm
My understanding is that Marcus is very close to the mark. I think Steve has forgotten that the majority of Tommy's attempt had a accompanying car with a dedicated person carrying extra clothes and handing up food and drinks along the road. That assistance alone is worth tens of miles per day. Kurt has certainly found that sort of assistance  very helpful.

Godwin had only 5 months by my reckoning, May - August

The months when he recorded his highest mileage and probably rode longer hours.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 10 December, 2015, 05:03:57 pm
All that matters is that Steve comes out of the winter period with an achievable target still in sight.

Bang on the mark.

I hope Steve stabilises his losses soon.  The thing that catches my eye is that the losses are quite variable at the moment, ranging from 80 miles a day to 30 miles.  Often with no clear weather-linked reason (particularly over the past week).  That variability smacks of getting into a cycle of overcompensation following a disappointing mileage total. 

In "similar" situations (chasing a record, albeit not one so hard) what I did was set a more manageable target when things weren't going to the master plan (in this case it would be "ride 10 miles more than yesterday") rather than attempting to push myself back onto the master plan (in this case, ride 205 miles). 

Steve has the ability and scope to make up a reasonable shortfall come the end of winter, so a gradual clawing back towards daily Godwins is an option for him.  Rather than pushing too hard too soon.

Of course, this assumes that the disappointing daily mileages being seen at the moment are due to his diet or some other physical limitation.  Rather than simply fighting the weather (where a degree of variability would be more understandable).  I don't know which it is, not being in Steve's inner circle. (In other words "what do I know").
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 10 December, 2015, 05:14:54 pm
I wouldn't rule out the over-compensation pattern you suggest, but remember also that the daily figures as logged on Strava are for 24 hour periods sliced at midnight. So a later ride can look like an under-achieving day followed by an over-achieving one that contains the tail end of the previous late night finish (this wouldn't apply if he was consistently riding at the same times of day, but we have seen some fluctuation in start and end times).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 10 December, 2015, 05:39:51 pm
but remember also that the daily figures as logged on Strava are for 24 hour periods sliced at midnight.

Good observation.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 10 December, 2015, 05:46:23 pm
^^^ Thus far it has been rather mild but it has also been rather wet (very wet) and rather windy (very windy) which can't be of great help.  A few still, dry and cooler days would no doubt help.  If we get a bad winter with hard frosts (ice) and snow (reducing the effective width of the road) then it will be truly grim.

Pity funds are tight and Steve can't fly to better weather.

Windy but not wet. Rainfall in the whole of southern England and East Anglia was well within normal bounds in November and actually rather dry in places. It's only when you get north of Birmingham and to the NW that rainfall was well above normal. Southern UK rainfall is rather evenly distributed throughout the year, i.e. most months on average receive about the same amount. It's also been very mild, with only a couple of air frosts so far and temperatures well above normal.

See http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gcpxfm7hf for Woburn climatic averages.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 10 December, 2015, 05:59:31 pm
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him.

Which aspect of his strategy?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 11 December, 2015, 06:43:49 am
Apart from the wind, the weather in the south of England has been pretty benign this year. Steve's explained a numb of times the tactics he uses to mitigate the wind - riding in exposed areas with the wind behind him and seeking sheltered roads for the return. However, the recent dip in form is worrying and I imagine the decision to go for a major change in nutrition strategy mid-attempt (and at this time of year) must be at least part of the reason.

Anything of this extreme nature is something of an experiment, and the potential for disruption is high, but this has the feeling of something of an own-goal and I wonder how much it's down to an influential advisor's inappropriate preferences rather than just a run of bad luck.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: fussballclub on 11 December, 2015, 07:03:22 am
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him. Potentially it's an advantage, as Kurt points out in this very good article.

Quote
Searvogel is as haunted by the wind as any sailor. He tracks it obsessively on the website WindFinder.com, charting his course around prevailing patterns. Like a game of geophysical chess, it is about not simply that day’s winds but also the next. “You’ve got to know what’s going to happen tomorrow,” he told me. “If you ride yourself into a corner, the next day’s going to be hell. It’s probably about 5:30 or 6 p.m. before we know where we’ll be tomorrow.”

But Searvogel knew this morning’s inconvenience would only be temporary. “You always want to hit the easy button,” he says. A mileage record is a mileage record: there is no added distinction for feet climbed, watts burned, state lines crossed. Once we reached land’s end in Door County, we would turn around and catch a great big southerly express train of atmospheric disturbance projected for later that morning that would take us all the way down near Madison. “Tomorrow’s probably going to be a 250-mile day,” were his last words the night before, which rang in my ears like a threat.

http://www.outsideonline.com/2039276/hello-i-must-be-going

Very good that.

Made me think looking at this as not a TT but a 75.000mile audax how awesome both men are (unglaublich):
1. Kurt (under 365 days)
2. Steve (hors delay)
3-n. YACF (DNF)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 11 December, 2015, 08:54:40 am
Media interest was always going to be most intense at the beginning of the attempt, and towards the end. The 'crowd-funding' of Steve that evolved was a good strategy to finance the project.

Kurt had the advantage of having organised and financed a RAAM. Getting Hoppo on board the Steve team made a lot of sense, as he had similar experience. Idai has the force of personality to handle the media side. But the crowd-funding grew out of YACF, and the two sides never seemed to gel for me.

Jo explained the YACF link to the Guardian in an interview, and the Daily Mirror did an article just before the moped incident.

There's a story to be told of the attempt as a management exercise. 'Riding yourself into a corner' is the most telling phrase that Kurt uses.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 11 December, 2015, 10:02:31 am
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him.

Which aspect of his strategy?

He's not really interested in "help". I'd be really surprised if the recent call for lifts into the wind came from Steve; he wants to do it with as little outside help as possible. It's an approach, far be it from us to criticise if that's how he wants to play it, but IMHO it's very high risk, and recent history is showing just how difficult an approach it is.

Kurt found (or already knew!) what would work - 12 hours of evens, then 12 hours rest; but most important of all, Alicia! Early evening, they decide where to ride next day based on the wind forecast, she drives them both to the agreed start, he rests.

I have no idea of the day to day decision making process of Steve's team (or if there is in fact, any "team" at all?).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 December, 2015, 10:11:36 am
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him.

Which aspect of his strategy?

He's not really interested in "help". I'd be really surprised if the recent call for lifts into the wind came from Steve; he want's to do it with as little outside help as possible. It's an approach, far be it from us to criticise if that's how he wants to play it, but IMHO it's very high risk, and recent history is showing just how difficult an approach it is.

Kurt found (or already knew!) what would work - 12 hours of evens, then 12 hours rest; but most important of all, Alecia! Early evening, they decide where to ride next day based on the wind forecast, she drives them both to the agreed start, he rests.

I have no idea of the day to day decision making process of Steve's team (or if there is in fact, any "team" at all?).
So your answer to my question seems to be:
"Not having a 365x24 support person, who also drives him upwind every night."


That's not really "strategy". If you don't have a resource, you can't choose not to use it!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 11 December, 2015, 10:13:31 am
That's not really "strategy". If you don't have a resource, you can't choose not to use it!

He never asked for such a resource, because it was never his strategy.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 11 December, 2015, 10:14:31 am
Steve has had the opportunity to acquire that resource since very early in his attempt. The major limitation has been the desire to make it happen.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 December, 2015, 10:16:47 am
I know he's chosen to do without certain levels of support - and of course that has cost him. We all have our different opinions on whether this was "wise".

But has he really been offered a 365x24 helper?  ???
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 11 December, 2015, 10:33:00 am
He has been offered 24 hr help several times, most recently myself from 25 Dec to 01 Jan inclusive.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 December, 2015, 11:36:29 am
He has been offered 24 hr help several times, most recently myself from 25 Dec to 01 Jan inclusive.
No offence, but I'd prefer an Alicia for Christmas.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 11 December, 2015, 11:46:58 am
None taken. I'm quite sure I wouldn't look as enticing, regardless of the height of my heels or hairstyle.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Somnolent on 11 December, 2015, 12:09:27 pm
He's not really interested in "help". I'd be really surprised if the recent call for lifts into the wind came from Steve; he want's to do it with as little outside help as possible. It's an approach, far be it from us to criticise if that's how he wants to play it, but IMHO it's very high risk, and recent history is showing just how difficult an approach it is.

I don't see it "wanting to do it with as little outside hep as possible" being the main motivation.
I was recently in a position to offer Steve (and his bike) a lift into quite a strong SW wind.  A couple of hours in the car and he'd have been 160km upwind of MK instead of 50km downwind.  His rationale was that he'd get more miles in, in total, by being on his bike for those two hours - even if he spent the entire day butting into a headwind.
I was surprised - but I have confidence that he knows what he's doing with calculations of that sort.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 December, 2015, 01:17:50 pm
[I'm almost certain I posted this a few pages back, but anyway ...]

there are 2 obvious factors governing that calculation:
- how strong is the wind? (cos clearly if it was too fast to ride into AT ALL, there's no point in wasting time trying). and
- how much recovery can you get in the vehicle? (if its a long transfer, such as overnight, in a perfect team bus, with food, masseurs and comfy beds ... well again, its a no-brainer).

In the real world the decision will rarely be clear-cut.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 11 December, 2015, 03:08:59 pm

I wouldn't rule out the over-compensation pattern you suggest, but remember also that the daily figures as logged on Strava are for 24 hour periods sliced at midnight. So a later ride can look like an under-achieving day followed by an over-achieving one that contains the tail end of the previous late night finish (this wouldn't apply if he was consistently riding at the same times of day, but we have seen some fluctuation in start and end times).

If you look at each period of seven days divided by seven he hasnt made consistent daily Godwins in some time.  His current shortfalls are large and even doing a Godwin the following day doesn't balance it back to two Godwins.

My experience and this year I have wound up chasing known numbers for AUK ladies is that unless you have a contingency fund of spare kms is that if you fall behind what you have nominated as either your daily or weekly distance it is very difficult to hit the number you are after.

I accept I'n not in Steve's league but like Steve my opportunities to collect kms is  limited not by 24 x 365 but by non work time and other commitments excluding turning the pedals.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 11 December, 2015, 10:05:50 pm
It might be inappropriate for me to come into this current thread as an ex team member -- and the thinking may have changed a little or even a lot over the last 3 months -- but my pennorth is as follows.

The financial support from individuals has been amazing -- and it is still continuing -- funds pass thru an account that I hold before reaching Steve.. it was left like that to avoid all standing orders having to be redirected. The team do not yet know how many of the standing orders will cease after 12 months or whether some, several , many or even lots will continue into 2016 - that will become clearer in early Feb 2016. However if Steve wished to use  " faster " bikes by buying them - or relocate to say South of France - then in my judgement the funds were sufficient to allow this, and i am unaware of any dramatic change in the use of cash.

My experience from very early on , up to the time I stepped down -- was very much that Steve decided what he wanted to do -- and that attempting to suggest alternatives that might have been overlooked or not even considered was seen as totally pointless and dismissed out of hand usually  --in fact I do not think  that  these ideas were even put to Steve for him to consider. Remember that for the team there was really no way to "chat" with him -- he was either on the bike, or off and eating, sleeping or updating mileage. Any team conversations, ideas or suggestions  had to be channelled thru the team leader -- to minimise the interference with Steves daily routine, and I think that the team leader was 100% behind Steve's personal approach believing that  external suggestions were never going to be accepted by Steve -- so forget them - in fact virtually  do not even bother to make them  .. as there is only one way to tackle this  ie ...Steve's way.

 Steve as far as i was able to judge was doing it his way -- and there was only this way to do it. No point in debating the rights or wrongs of this approach -- Steve is the bloke grinding out the miles that are just about imaginable to most of us for a few days .. but for  a year ,... well way beyond my comprehension of both the physical and mental demands.

In a sense the team was an irrelevancy -- as any ideas that might have helped .. if they conflicted with Steves fixed idea of the way he was going to crack the record .. were not even worth thinking about.

Understand this background which i suspect has not changed (but the diet change could indicate that i am wrong here  ) and you will realise that matters such as - relocate to france, faster road bikes, smaller supported drafting ""into the wind"" loops , vehicle transfers , back up hired vehicle  travelling with him -- -- from my knowledge -- just not going to happen.

But Steve ...  you and your local support at MK ..... still have my immense admiration for what you are attempting and how you are setting about it.

I can only hope that you succeed in your driven ambition.


Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 12 December, 2015, 05:59:35 am
Excellent and detailed posting. Thank you for compiling and sharing with us and for your enormous help managing and setting up the Financial side of things. It is reassuring to read that the funds are all in place for Steve to continue riding the challenge  'his way'.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 12 December, 2015, 03:32:16 pm
A quick look at the tracker indicates an overall moving speed for Steve as 16.3mph, but 15.8 for Kurt. I have no clue as to how it works that out.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: wajcgac on 12 December, 2015, 07:29:01 pm
Hi Wow, I think that the Tracker average is wrong but not sure why.

Steve's moving average according to Strava is about 23.8 kph for 2015.

Kurt's moving average according to Strava is about 29 kph for 2015.

This tallies pretty well with my spreadsheet which shows the average of their daily average speeds.

Should someone attempt this challenge who has Kurts speed (29km/h) and spends as much time on the bike as Steve (1.75 hrs per day more than Kurt) then you could be looking at

29km/h x 1.5 hrs (I'll let them have a 15 min rest if they like  :) ) = 43.5 km/day , x 365 days would give an additional total of approx. 15,800 km (9,900 miles)

Add that to Kurts likely record total of approx. 76,000 miles and you are looking at a new record of 86,000 miles.





Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 12 December, 2015, 08:36:00 pm
It might be inappropriate for me to come into this current thread as an ex team member -- and the thinking may have changed a little or even a lot over the last 3 months -- but my pennorth is as follows.


Thanks FB, it would be nice to hear from the team where our financial support is going, how much is required for the challenge and indeed if there is to be a charity to receive the surplus if there is one as promised,

because apart from your postings we have received ZIP
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 12 December, 2015, 09:33:02 pm
Excellent and detailed posting. Thank you for compiling and sharing with us and for your enormous help managing and setting up the Financial side of things. It is reassuring to read that the funds are all in place for Steve to continue riding the challenge  'his way'.  :thumbsup:
Call me a Jeremiah and all, but I think precisely the opposite: had I contributed financially to Steve's team's effort I would be expecting them to be working cohesively in an attempt to extract the very best performance possible.  Steve's ideals bear little resemblance to the way that Godwin attempted the record (motorised assistance for 5 months!), and bear virtually no resemblance to the record-holder-in-waiting's MO (a tight, communicative partnership exploiting whatever benefits they can extract.)  The one boundary that I, personally, would have reservations about crossing is that of the recumbent (ironically, though, Steve did that too!).

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure Steve's a splendid chap and all, but it all makes me care a little bit less about whether he's successful or not...  :(
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andrew531 on 12 December, 2015, 10:53:07 pm
I think that the fact that Steve wants to do it his way any not cut any legitimate corners or use any 'marginal gains' is credit to him. If he fails so be it. He tried. He's doing what he has probably done in audax for many a year. Kurt will probably exceed TG's record by about 1,000. Steve is likely to try and beat that by riding longer summer days.
Go Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 12 December, 2015, 11:02:51 pm
No matter how determined, bloody-minded and athletic the protagonists, beating this record will inevitably involve a considerable slice of luck. Steve's luck for attempt 1 ran out on that fateful day in March. We have seen that even when he is riding well, he finds it very hard to maintain a sequence of >206 days for any length of time.

The fact is that Kurt's higher speed means he spends fewer hours in the saddle, has more recovery time and in that sense has a bit of slack that he can take up when needed. For that reason you could say that he needs less "luck" than Steve. However, he has had his fair share. He has been knocked off twice at least in his effort, and any sort of off involving a motor vehicle is likely to put you out of the game for a period. In that sense, Kurt has been lucky.

But the fact remains that Steve takes a lot more days than Kurt to build up a buffer and unless he can increase his speed significantly (and that, presumably, will mean increasing his heart rate) then his attempt will always be on a knife edge.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 12 December, 2015, 11:41:41 pm
Keep zee dosh rolling in from diys /eces  mart-in    most welcome
Jeremiah legs a good read
Wowbagger - excellent

Steve WILL do it his way whatever other views are suggested
 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: teethgrinder on 13 December, 2015, 06:24:06 am
Just to put you all right.
I will take whatever advantage I can.
I am not doing most of what is suggested because I don't think they will work and some could potentially be very damaging.
No ideas are new and all have been considered.
Motor transfers will most likely happen.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 13 December, 2015, 06:29:10 am
Excellent Steve and thanks for the message. Have a good day today  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 13 December, 2015, 08:12:21 am
Just to put you all right.
I will take whatever advantage I can.
I am not doing most of what is suggested because I don't think they will work and some could potentially be very damaging.
No ideas are new and all have been considered.
Motor transfers will most likely happen.
Well that settles that!

Thanks for the clarification Steve.
(what are we all going to argue about now?? )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 13 December, 2015, 09:48:46 pm
Keep zee dosh rolling in from diys /eces  mart-in    most welcome :

well as i'm not a diy org that might be tricky,

it's not just about keeping the dosh rolling in, it,s about getting some comms from Steve,s team rather than Steve who has better things to do, about where it,s all going and how productively that dosh is being put towards this serious world record attempt

just saying...

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 14 December, 2015, 10:47:46 am
As a matter of interest, what was Godwin's average daily mileage after he passed the previous record in late October? I tried working it out from Jo's graph but couldn't do so in a way that convinced me that I had got it right.

It appears from the downturn in the TG line that he eased off a lot in November and December - hardly surprising for many reasons, not least of which were the wartime blackout. I was wondering what the mileage would have been had be kept up his pre-record-breaking daily average throughout the year.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 14 December, 2015, 11:12:55 am

Just to put you all right.
I will take whatever advantage I can.
I am not doing most of what is suggested because I don't think they will work and some could potentially be very damaging.
No ideas are new and all have been considered.
Motor transfers will most likely happen.

I guess that tells us that where we stand with our debating.  Steve will ride the record his way, full stop.

With 30,000km in sight by the end of next week for my 2015 year (ridden around a full time job) I'm not sure I agree with Steve.

I would also say that Steve is now on what could be termed 'the new Godwin' of 340km a day to the end of the restart to cover miles lost plus what Kurt will probably add to the record - by my reckoning this new daily average would equal the potential new record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: sg37409 on 14 December, 2015, 12:14:10 pm
I hope Steve is not disheartened by Kurts mileage.   I think this record has been in Steves mind for years and I could quite imagine he feels pissed off, losing it to Kurt.  If it was me, then no amount of people saying that Kurts got easier conditions, better support, etc would assuage me that my efforts are still what count.   I hope Steve is tougher mentally than me (I am sure he must be).   

Kurt will most likely get the mileage record.  The past few weeks of riding laps of a local park convince me more than ever its a different record than a UK attempt.  Fantastic effort, Kurt and team.  (wonders what he'll do after completing a year. that must be an odd thing)

Go Steve :thumbsup:  Focus on the days riding only. Crank the mileage up a wee bit, get the graph lines trending upwards.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 14 December, 2015, 12:21:50 pm
What "UK attempt"?  The record has been held by six Brits, but also two Frenchmen and two Aussies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_Godwin_(cyclist_born_1912)#World_endurance_records), and is now being governed by the USAnian UMCA. 

It's a world record, so let's not be so parochial!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 14 December, 2015, 12:28:23 pm
I took that to mean 'riding roads in the UK'. It is possible to recognise that given the constraints (e.g. weather, distance, traffic etc.) an attempt that is based in the UK requires a particular strategy that might not be so relevant in other places. Oz and the US also have (a different) set of constraints that might suggest different strategies.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: sg37409 on 14 December, 2015, 12:59:35 pm
"A UK attempt" - I meant a UK based attempt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 14 December, 2015, 02:26:32 pm
I will take whatever advantage I can.

When I was involved it was virtually impossible to speak to Steve, as he was so committed to riding that he had little time for anything else.. so that what might have been constructive thoughts were never able to be kicked around with him.

I still find it difficult to believe that the bikes he is riding are the best possible for the task in hand .. they maybe on bad days when he needs to carry kit .. but there are good weather days too ..so I would need some convincing to believe that bike choice is correct.  My impression was that before the huge wave of financial support was offered , these bikes were what he was offered for free -- so he and the team took them --then when it should have become at least a worth while topic of conversation.....    "" Hey we have enough cash to look at other ideas .. ie bikes , support vehicle etc etc ""  There was no way to discuss this with Steve directly - and no way to get a sensible discussion within the team.

So if Steves opening quote is now correct -- then it is a change in approach -- and maybe there are other areas that should be explored. AUK members and YACF members are  very supportive with cash and  would also be very likely to help with drafting, riding loops in the wind or round and round the MK bowl  .......  IF ONLY ..... this sort of support could be explored and harnessed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 14 December, 2015, 04:46:41 pm
I've made offers via a current team member...sound of crickets followed
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 14 December, 2015, 05:21:11 pm
Too clever for me  -- crickets chirp ... but that does not seem relevant.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Veloman on 14 December, 2015, 05:39:51 pm
I've made offers via a current team member...sound of crickets followed

Too clever for me  -- crickets chirp ... but that does not seem relevant.

I assume that following the silence that followed LWB's offer, the sound of the crickets became obvious.  Lots of discussion around the offer would have drowned-out the sound of the crickets.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 14 December, 2015, 05:40:57 pm
Too clever for me  -- crickets chirp ... but that does not seem relevant.

Perhaps this was meant?

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v249/Bloke_on_a_bike/Mobile%20Uploads/1405290900646_zps607e1f23.jpg) (http://smg.photobucket.com/user/Bloke_on_a_bike/media/Mobile%20Uploads/1405290900646_zps607e1f23.jpg.html)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 14 December, 2015, 05:47:40 pm
I thought Australia lost the crickets?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: drgannet on 14 December, 2015, 06:13:11 pm
I thought Australia lost the crickets?

 ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: macnark on 14 December, 2015, 08:51:16 pm
Steve, if you ever need help, whether mechanical, food, or lodgings, and you are between Cambridge and MK, as you often are, feel free to give me a shout and I'll help if I can. I did email the team a while back but had no answer, so am happy to repeat here if it might help.

07858 402683

I live near the Airman Pub on the A507 Henlow/Shefford, and work near Sandy -  I know it's not far from base, but if the weather takes a show-stopping dive, or the wheels fall off, it may save a walk or a kip outside.

Totally in awe of what you are doing and wish you all the best in reaching your target! Keep at it, do it as you think best - I recon you have earned the right to call the shots!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 14 December, 2015, 09:17:01 pm
Steve, if you ever need help, whether mechanical, food, or lodgings, and you are between Cambridge and MK, as you often are, feel free to give me a shout and I'll help if I can. I did email the team a while back but had no answer, so am happy to repeat here if it might help.

Stuff like this is what makes me wonder if there is "a team" at all?

That said, I've not tried emailing Kurt's "Team", and the same may apply.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 14 December, 2015, 10:04:47 pm
Steve's mentioned in the past that the paraphernalia required to upload the GPS details is what prevents him from moving far from home. It surprises me that no-one has streamlined that process.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 14 December, 2015, 10:12:24 pm
I guess that was one advantage of the old host system, one of the requirments of hosting was providing a computer for that job.  Now Steve, I believe, carries a laptop which is ballast most of the day.  Win some lose some.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 14 December, 2015, 10:13:12 pm
There are ways to make it easier via his phone but nobody on his team has bothered to set it up.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Freya on 14 December, 2015, 10:29:30 pm
He carries a laptop to upload results? Er. Technology has moved on from that I believe.  :facepalm:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 14 December, 2015, 10:39:42 pm
Quote
"Excuse me while I suck your blood,
excuse me when I phone you,
I've got every one of your records, man,
doesn't that mean I own you?"
Oh, sure, I long ago decided to make myself an exponent
of public possession in the private obsession zone.

But now I'm serious, let's be serious,
I'm not selling you my soul,
try to put it in the records
but I've got to keep my life my own.
One thing I've not got a lot of is time
and it's slipping away...

I've got a life to live too.

Ah, here they come...
Vampires!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 14 December, 2015, 10:45:58 pm
A laptop has got to be worth at least 15 watts.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 14 December, 2015, 11:01:36 pm
Depends on the power supply?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 15 December, 2015, 06:55:27 am
The problem, it seems to me, that Steve faces is one of mindset.  Self-sufficiency is essential in an Audax.  This need not be an Audax (as Kurt is proving.)  It seems utterly bewildering to me that he's squandering his chance to rack up much larger distances, cet par, by choosing to make it so much harder for himself. 

Did he ride with mudguards in the summer as well?  Ah, but the weather can change in the course of a day, I hear you cry!  But if you're sticking close enough to home to be able to swap bikes and clothes, that's not an issue...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: DaveE128 on 15 December, 2015, 10:47:39 am
See where you're coming from on that one, but with the mudguards, I'd think that time spent removing and refitting mudguards to suit the weather would be better spent accumulating miles, as I'm not sure you'd make that time back.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 15 December, 2015, 10:50:35 am
Steve has 3 bikes and a mechanic.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 15 December, 2015, 10:50:57 am
I think the implication was that Steve should have a summer bike and a winter bike, one with mudguards and one without, and that if it rains he just nips home, because he is only doing local loops, and swap them.

Not that I can imagine myself doing anything like this in a million years, but if I did, I think the way to go nuts is to restrict yourself to local roads for the duration. I guess that Steve needs to see a bit of the country whilst he's attempting the record. Besides, Jo needs material for his heat maps.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 15 December, 2015, 10:54:04 am
Instead of doing long rides out and back wouldn't shorter figures of 8 or loops centred on home, or a clover leaf ride re-visiting base several times on a ride be more efficient? No need to carry so much stuff, ability to switch bikes/clothing to suit conditions etc.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 15 December, 2015, 11:23:46 am
Yes Jochta et al, the hamster wheel approach has already been proved as the best way to deal with wind including not so round wheels.

If you take on any current road records it's going to involve looking at a piece of Tarmac a few metres in front of you. The men's record excludes spectating the countryside.

The women's record is still at a distance for a good capable AUK to do some interesting riding provides she is happy to break the record by a small amount.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 15 December, 2015, 11:31:06 am
I've also wondered why a 'hamster wheel', or a <10 lap circuit = 1 Godwin, hasn't really been done.  The other day I had a bit of a look on a routeplanner as to what would be a potentially good circuit in the MK area - and it's not that flat.  I think towards/around Bicester was possibly the least elevation.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 15 December, 2015, 11:49:31 am
To the best of my knowledge there has NEVER been any team thought put into how best to maximise Steve's mileage over a time frame of any length -- whether that be 1, 2, 7, 31, or 365 days. Thought would require covering many strands -- bikes, nutrition, support,clothing , routes,  geography etc etc etc.. Total reliance was placed on Steves original assumption that he could beat Tommy by several thousand miles.. result .. this belief accepted as fact .. therefore no need to consider how best to tackle the challenge. Whereas I would suggest that Steve is at his limit to beat Tommy / Kurt and therefore needs to take advantage of every tiny gain possible  -- Brailsford -- marginal gains matter
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 15 December, 2015, 11:59:45 am
See where you're coming from on that one, but with the mudguards, I'd think that time spent removing and refitting mudguards to suit the weather would be better spent accumulating miles, as I'm not sure you'd make that time back.

If we're going to argue about mudguards (and why not, we've debated everything else), how about "mudguards don't actually slow you down, other than by adding weight to the bike"?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 15 December, 2015, 12:05:00 pm
See where you're coming from on that one, but with the mudguards, I'd think that time spent removing and refitting mudguards to suit the weather would be better spent accumulating miles, as I'm not sure you'd make that time back.

If we're going to argue about mudguards (and why not, we've debated everything else), how about "mudguards don't actually slow you down, other than by adding weight to the bike"?

They can't possibly be any good for the aerodynamics basically acting like a funnel/baffle to the air you're cycling into. Therefore increasing the air resistance and thus the power required to go at the same speed without.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 15 December, 2015, 12:20:27 pm
Steve hasn't been able to consistently better 220 miles a day in ideal conditions. At the current rate that he is losing daily distance, he'll need to average something similar to that from January to August. Without a change of approach from Steve and his team to consistently maximise distance, the record is slipping out of his reach.

Again, I am available 24/7 from Christmas to New Year's Day inclusive to do whatever you want, be it towing Steve into headwinds, motorised support, transfers or anything else. You just have to decide what to do and bloody ask.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 15 December, 2015, 12:36:57 pm
To the best of my knowledge there has NEVER been any team thought put into how best to maximise Steve's mileage over a time frame of any length -- whether that be 1, 2, 7, 31, or 365 days. Thought would require covering many strands -- bikes, nutrition, support,clothing , routes,  geography etc etc etc.. Total reliance was placed on Steves original assumption that he could beat Tommy by several thousand miles.. result .. this belief accepted as fact .. therefore no need to consider how best to tackle the challenge. Whereas I would suggest that Steve is at his limit to beat Tommy / Kurt and therefore needs to take advantage of every tiny gain possible  -- Brailsford -- marginal gains matter

This kinda figures with the whole ''I'll just get on my bike and ride approach.''

I'd be more than tempted to take up LWAB's offer and see what a difference (I believe) it will make. A warm cup of hot chocolate and some pop tarts every 40 or so miles, along with a friendly encouraging word would only be a good thing surely.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 15 December, 2015, 12:53:24 pm
If we're going to argue about mudguards (and why not, we've debated everything else), how about "mudguards don't actually slow you down, other than by adding weight to the bike"?

They can't possibly be any good for the aerodynamics basically acting like a funnel/baffle to the air you're cycling into. Therefore increasing the air resistance and thus the power required to go at the same speed without.

https://janheine.wordpress.com/2012/05/02/aerodynamics-of-real-world-bicycles/
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 15 December, 2015, 01:03:06 pm
If we're going to argue about mudguards (and why not, we've debated everything else), how about "mudguards don't actually slow you down, other than by adding weight to the bike"?

They can't possibly be any good for the aerodynamics basically acting like a funnel/baffle to the air you're cycling into. Therefore increasing the air resistance and thus the power required to go at the same speed without.

https://janheine.wordpress.com/2012/05/02/aerodynamics-of-real-world-bicycles/

"Well-mounted metal fenders do not affect the bike’s aerodynamics. The front section of each fender shields the tire and reduces the wind resistance, while the rear fender increases the aerodynamic drag. The two effects cancel each other."

As clear as mud. A front mudguard doesn't have a front section that shields the tyre so not sure what they are on about there and then they say the whole of the rear mudguard increases the drag.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 15 December, 2015, 01:04:39 pm
Indeed.  But it's clearly not as simple as "can't possibly be any good for the aerodynamics".

Anyway, it's a marginal gain.  You worry about mudguards after you've gone recumbent.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 15 December, 2015, 01:10:39 pm
Mr Heine is talking about very close-fitting mudguards that very few Brits use, mostly because of lack of clearance for mud. I suspect that the results would be worse with normal SKS mudguards but it is a not particularly large effect anyway.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 15 December, 2015, 01:18:56 pm
Indeed.  But it's clearly not as simple as "can't possibly be any good for the aerodynamics".

Anyway, it's a marginal gain.  You worry about mudguards after you've gone recumbent.

I'm happy for it to be proved one way or another. My gut feeling is that it "can't possibly be any good for the aerodynamics". And yep as they proved anything you do to the bike is pretty marginal compared to the rider's position and clothing.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 15 December, 2015, 01:32:33 pm
Meanwhile, the absence of mudguards could lead to illness, saddle sores or just general misery, which are much bigger problems than a marginal detriment to aerodynamics.  I'd want them any time outside the typical two weeks of British 'summer' when it's dry enough that you can reasonably expect there not to be puddles of field run-off.

As with vehicle transfers and so on, I think it's mostly a case of Steve knowing what works, and having been too busy getting on with it to explore other possibilities that might help some of the time.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 15 December, 2015, 01:34:42 pm
Sitting behind a strong large rider into a headwind would be helpful also.

With the record where TG left it, it requires thought and an excellent strategy as well as the physical talent to equal let alone break the record.  TG shouldn't be underestimated because the equipment, food and roads don't match 2015 standards.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 15 December, 2015, 01:42:28 pm

Meanwhile, the absence of mudguards could lead to illness, saddle sores or just general misery, which are much bigger problems than a marginal detriment to aerodynamics.  I'd want them any time outside the typical two weeks of British 'summer' when it's dry enough that you can reasonably expect there not to be puddles of field run-off.

As with vehicle transfers and so on, I think it's mostly a case of Steve knowing what works, and having been too busy getting on with it to explore other possibilities that might help some of the time.

Steve's bike weighs the same as my winter Condor - wouldn't want to ride that for a 365 day record attempt compared to my light bike.

I'm not convinced that Steve knows what works. I've helped him on three 24s after it taking 8 plus years to persuade him that help would be useful as would gears and fast wheels.  Steve admitted that yes, all of these allowed him to go further once he tried them.

In Steve's defence I'd say that right now his brain is so fuzzy with miles the ability to think things through is not particularly brilliant. He needs someone with the right knowledge to think the issues through for him, then work with him to come up with something that Steve has confidence in and is going to make a difference.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 15 December, 2015, 01:48:11 pm
I'm not convinced that Steve knows what works. I've helped him on three 24s after it taking 8 plus years to persuade him that help would be useful as would gears and fast wheels.  Steve admitted that yes, all of these allowed him to go further once he tried them.

That's an interesting insight, and seems to fit with my general impression of Steve's original plan being "go out and ride a 300 every day for a year".


Quote
In Steve's defence I'd say that right now his brain is so fuzzy with miles the ability to think things through is not particularly brilliant. He needs someone with the right knowledge to think the issues through for him, then work with him to come up with something that Steve has confidence in and is going to make a difference.

Indeed.  I imagine it's hard to do that retrospectively.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 15 December, 2015, 02:04:36 pm
it's good to be stuck to your ways of doing things when you're in the flow. when things start to go pear shaped it's wise to listen to a coach or a mentor. let's hope for the winter without snow, no margin left for such events!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 15 December, 2015, 02:50:53 pm
Steve has consistently said he'll do it his way, and no one can argue that he hasn't done that! But it became obvious in the summer that the mahoosive daily distances he'd planned on would not be consistently possible, even without weather, mopeds and bouts of sickness. The change of diet, however sensible prior to embarking on this challenge, really didn't help his daily distances - though it may well be that it was medically necessary.

The evidence suggest that Steve knows what he's doing - and that may be part of the problem. What he's doing is what he knows, and it's not working out how it needs to. If he can take up LWaB's offer, that could make a big difference - it's worked for Kurt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 15 December, 2015, 03:33:55 pm
Not a suggestion as such, more just a thought about some kind of 'local' circuit; and there's probably a good reason why not...

Steve's favorite route to Marsh Gibbon (has to be), then ~5-6 laps of:

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Qg-1nJPpmvRle6R-JEERKLeX6Qwwy_8a-dsSUv4DCiqD74ZmZTQv023AxeMzlmVdc4S1pt4AWsZ5aQfGzLeAlkNMbLhgTRJ7E06tNh6da5WxhZ3hDnBg0uMPByODFeqG6Kz2KKlaj6fdtsr1byeQCMhclAPH32XS-ogcAns-ZM5X2nXRGV6BhzxdmgA-NcOrSYDh3DrK633MbNAc2lLzUaAEKvslD2Ysrl0QcIUw_JqirT370cU87lG32WMVWamSQeSz7i0BaaPWCgRb29O3Y8Je-dbpLnEMOj9YqtaXhuSvzKj795bt28tMFmbg3Dj5UCiF-GG-4XdJ8oScmozqNfuJGbfOy9A2Hmh-TkvYbyqwma8c-Uss_1SrGRjN6gGn3kP45XHFr3nOqeL_J6-16NSNu3pVHPpq06uyLDziezsLhRqku0rRlE73hQ1jMw-HGW8kpcvk8H1HLP9aYG3W3oq4LVg9Bdl_o9HDdPdk0boYODOOXcO9GFBor3UyZU_9PGUYeQbe8MgbLM4S0Amw06abszRk_CabFXPOMidpKfhA-8NWmQVXoYGQbGrm7OAa1yjJ=w633-h640-no)

So more of a 'yoyo'...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: aoxomoxoa on 15 December, 2015, 03:41:41 pm
Crossing the A41 near Blackthorn can be a right pig. Certainly wouldn't fancy it in poor visibility/weather during busy periods. Other than that it's not a bad route with a few undulations - the regular stamping ground for my club - Bicester Millennium CC.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: macnark on 15 December, 2015, 03:44:18 pm
Ideally a loop would only have left turns so that you can keep left always and never need to come towards the centre of the road or cross oncoming traffc.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 15 December, 2015, 03:44:44 pm
Crossing the A41 near Blackthorn can be a right pig.

That was my immediate thought. Also the elevation gain is quite high compared to that for a similar circuit in the fens. This is where kurts strategy of a mobile "home" would come into it's won.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 15 December, 2015, 03:58:38 pm
Yes, Fens circuit would be good from a Travelodge (or host).  Book in for a few days and... go for it. 

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: aoxomoxoa on 15 December, 2015, 03:59:22 pm
Ideally a loop would only have left turns so that you can keep left always and never need to come towards the centre of the road or cross oncoming traffc.

Good point. Maybe tweak the route to go straight on from Caversfield to Launton, then take a left into Station Road. Would avoid the stretch on the busy A4421 with a right turn across traffic towards Stratton Audley.

/edit/ just realised that I've assumed a clockwise circuit, but anti-clockwise might be better.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 15 December, 2015, 04:16:51 pm
30 miles is too long a loop - it needs to be short enough that Steve can quickly bolt for home in poor weather or pick up food.  Short loops make it easy to meet up with local riders and to get them to help.  I suggested two ~5mile routes a few pages ago.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 15 December, 2015, 04:38:28 pm
My gut (FWIW) is that 5mls would be too short*; but in the immediate MK area it would probably need to be shorter to keep elevation down...  On a 30-50km loop people would still have a reasonable chance of locating/meeting/supplying Steve. 

*despite Steve having done the MK bowl.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 15 December, 2015, 04:42:08 pm
15,000 loops of the same route sounds a tad dull.   :o
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 15 December, 2015, 04:48:08 pm
15,000 loops of the same route sounds a tad dull.   :o
er ... yes.

Surely its fairly accepted that this is a tough mental challenge the way Steve is currently doing it? I don't see making him ride 20km loops of MK (or surroundings) is gonna help.

He's an adventurer, a cycle-tourist if you will. This is a chance to see some countryside. Let's see the rest of you ride 12x30km loops/day just for a WEEK!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 15 December, 2015, 04:53:18 pm
If Steve wants an adventure that is one thing but he has signed up to beat the record. That is the objective, not going out and having a good time.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 15 December, 2015, 05:07:40 pm
If Steve wants an adventure that is one thing but he has signed up to beat the record. That is the objective, not going out and having a good time.
So I guess you don't see the mental side as important?

We shall have to disagree on this.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 15 December, 2015, 05:12:06 pm
If Steve wants an adventure that is one thing but he has signed up to beat the record. That is the objective, not going out and having a good time.

One of the points made before the start of the challenge at this time last year was the different approaches that Kurt & Steve were taking. Steve was doing it as a audaxer, Kurt as a racer. I think it was Steve himself who made that point, but I am not sure. I think it was on a television news interview where he first mentioned Kurt. "He's really fast. This will be like the hare and the tortoise." I think were the words he used.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 15 December, 2015, 05:14:30 pm
This will be like the hare and the tortoise." I think were the words he used.

That's the problem.  There aren't enough hours in the day for the tortoise approach unfortunately, and that's been clear from early on.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 15 December, 2015, 05:15:42 pm
If Steve wants an adventure that is one thing but he has signed up to beat the record. That is the objective, not going out and having a good time.
So I guess you don't see the mental side as important?
We shall have to disagree on this.
Obviously Steve doesn't see the mental side important enough to want to have company on his rides...
This will be like the hare and the tortoise." I think were the words he used.
That's the problem.  There aren't enough hours in the day for the tortoise approach unfortunately, that that's been clear from early on.
...and this particular hare ain't having no nap.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 15 December, 2015, 05:16:26 pm
And nor is the hare close to tiring.

Edit: cross post with above  8)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 15 December, 2015, 07:02:22 pm
If Steve wants an adventure that is one thing but he has signed up to beat the record. That is the objective, not going out and having a good time.
So I guess you don't see the mental side as important?

We shall have to disagree on this.

Only in as much as you need the mental toughness to know what needs to get done in order to get the record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 15 December, 2015, 07:09:50 pm
I was beginning to find this thread depressing reading ...

but then LMT offers lessons for Steve in mental toughness.

Brilliant!   ;D   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: flashpeddler on 15 December, 2015, 07:31:17 pm
I could never do this, I lack both the mental and physical ability.  But if I could, my strategy would be:
I would be UK based - I love cycling in Britain
I would never, ever ride into wind
I would have full time camper van support, this would transfer me downwind.  Van would have a fixed bed for instant rest.
I would have full time support and would meet them at no more than 50 mile intervals
I'd use regular (daily) sports massages etc
Bike would be light weight carbon with minimal weight additions - wouldn't need much as would meet support every 3ish hours
I'd want every turn of the pedal to give max benefit - therefore minimal climbing - never more than 1000ft per 100 miles.
I'd publish my intended route based on forecast wind and invite experienced people to come and draft me - I like company too.
Daytime breaks would be minimum time possible - I like my 8 hours sleep so would want sustainable meals all ready to go when I stopped and then have as long off the bike as possible at night
I'd target the record plus a few miles - I don't think large increases are feasible
Finally, my crew chief would be as easy on the eye as Alicia and not have a face like a stunt man's knee!!!!  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 15 December, 2015, 07:44:50 pm
I was beginning to find this thread depressing reading ...

but then LMT offers lessons for Steve in mental toughness.

Brilliant!   ;D   :thumbsup:

Was not offering Steve anything, you'll do well not to misinterpret my words. You think Kurt enjoyed doing those loops a couple of months ago in Arkansas? Or was it the fact that he knew what the craic was and just got on with it - that's the type of mental toughness I'm referring to. I'm sorry to say but simply riding your bike won't get you this record. And if it is true what I've read from past members of his team that no thought has been given the most efficient way of churning out the miles then this is staggeringly arrogant - and it's rather sad to see but he is currently paying the price. I'd gladly be prove wrong of course...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 15 December, 2015, 08:06:41 pm
I was beginning to find this thread depressing reading ...

but then LMT offers lessons for Steve in mental toughness.

Brilliant!   ;D   :thumbsup:

Was not offering Steve anything, you'll do well not to misinterpret my words.
What an odd thing to write; are you saying your posts are ambiguous?

Keep 'em coming :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 15 December, 2015, 09:09:38 pm
And nor is the hare close to tiring.


just adding some rather "hard to swallow" ingredients to a humble pie I'm making for a resident of This Parish (wink; doesn't work on W10)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Grampa on 15 December, 2015, 11:15:54 pm
Quote
I would have full time camper van...
I'd.... invite experienced people to come and draft me

Who  needs experienced people?!!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 15 December, 2015, 11:20:25 pm
I was beginning to find this thread depressing reading ...

but then LMT offers lessons for Steve in mental toughness.

Brilliant!   ;D   :thumbsup:

Was not offering Steve anything, you'll do well not to misinterpret my words. You think Kurt enjoyed doing those loops a couple of months ago in Arkansas? Or was it the fact that he knew what the craic was and just got on with it - that's the type of mental toughness I'm referring to. I'm sorry to say but simply riding your bike won't get you this record. And if it is true what I've read from past members of his team that no thought has been given the most efficient way of churning out the miles then this is staggeringly arrogant - and it's rather sad to see but he is currently paying the price. I'd gladly be prove wrong of course...

I think you'd probably hate it...  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 15 December, 2015, 11:55:59 pm
Current thoughts on the record attempt? Well, both Steve and Kurt have proved themselves worthy contenders. I don't think I am in a position to give advice to either of them, despite being able to ride a bike. What is needed is as far from my experience and understanding as racing up the Tourmalet with the pro peleton and as useful as telling Sagan he needs to turn his pedals faster to win (even if it is factually correct). I'm constantly impressed by the the quality of advice and experience that, if only Steve would adopt, he would be doing better.

What do I think? It is really sad that we are all more than a little downbeat with the apparent direction of Steve's record attempt travel. That he has cycled 60,000 miles in a year in which he broke his ankle is beyond astonishing to me and speaks of a doggedness and determination that should put his critics to shame (but won't, I'm sure). I actually don't have very much doubt that had he avoided injury he would have been successful with his strategy. When I heard the news I  - I'm sure along with many - thought the opportunity was over, we were probably right. But, Steve has earned the right to plough his own furrow as long as he choses.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 16 December, 2015, 05:19:16 am
I read the 'advice' as simply a bunch of concerned supporters of Steve seeing his incredible efforts losing their way a bit and desperately offering suggestions that might help him get back on track. I don't think anyone's suggesting they know better than him how to do this, but they can see that it's not going the way it needs to if he's to succeed in his quest to beat Tommy. If it ends up that he doesn't make it, no-one would ever suggest that it wasn't for lack of trying - but we'd all prefer that he does make it!

Perhaps it doesn't help that Kurt is riding at the same time and, for a number of reasons - not least slightly better luck - he's likely to succeed, so, naturally, people will urge Steve to adopt some of the techniques that have worked for Kurt. They may be inappropriate, impossible, or just not right for Steve, but they aren't suggested in a spirit of 'knowing better', simply looking for anything that might help.

There's no-one here that wishes anything but the best for Steve, I'm quite sure of that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: falcon on 16 December, 2015, 06:18:48 am
I'm beginning to think that the record needs to be split a bit like the hour record did a few years ago....
One based on a pure Godwin effort like Steve is doing and a Kurt record which is assisted, car transfers etc. Comparing Steve and Kurt is comparing apples and pears, it's not like for like.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: falcon on 16 December, 2015, 06:19:04 am
Just my ten penneth and I am in awe of both!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 16 December, 2015, 06:30:23 am
I'm beginning to think that the record needs to be split a bit like the hour record did a few years ago....
One based on a pure Godwin effort like Steve is doing and a Kurt record which is assisted, car transfers etc. Comparing Steve and Kurt is comparing apples and pears, it's not like for like.
UMCA have split it, into age categories. Steve will hold the 40 - 50 yo record for his >60k miles. I suspect that that will remain a record for someone who broke an ankle part-way through for the duration of human history. Even Kurt hasn't managed that, the big girl's blouse.  :P
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 16 December, 2015, 06:58:06 am
I'm beginning to think that the record needs to be split a bit like the hour record did a few years ago....
One based on a pure Godwin effort like Steve is doing and a Kurt record which is assisted, car transfers etc. Comparing Steve and Kurt is comparing apples and pears, it's not like for like.

Tommy Godwin was a racer who rode as fast as he could on the fastest bikes of his day, with the support of a team when he could get it.  Kurt is absolutely riding in the same spirit.  Steve says that he has considered a whole range of things and ruled them out, not on purist/ideological grounds but because he doesn't think they will work (although some of us don't agree with that).  It's a race: there isn't. and never has been, a record for doing it audax-stylee, Steve is not claiming any moral high ground by adopting such an approach and I can't imagine he would be happy with a consolation 'audax-class' record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 16 December, 2015, 07:07:50 am
Meanwhile, the absence of mudguards could lead to illness, saddle sores or just general misery, which are much bigger problems than a marginal detriment to aerodynamics.  I'd want them any time outside the typical two weeks of British 'summer' when it's dry enough that you can reasonably expect there not to be puddles of field run-off.

As with vehicle transfers and so on, I think it's mostly a case of Steve knowing what works, and having been too busy getting on with it to explore other possibilities that might help some of the time.

Mudguards are a small thing, but read this, by a guy who has thought about them for a long ride and how to get the benefit while minimising the aero penalty. 

http://www.murray-white.net/tcr/index.html?bikeGear&wheels (http://www.murray-white.net/tcr/index.html?bikeGear&wheels)

"On the rear wheel, I don’t extend the fender down as far as normal because that only protects people riding behind, which they are not allowed to do in the TCR, so my rear fender finishes about level with the brake bridge on the seatstays. The rear fender extends all the way forwards to the bottom bracket, because otherwise the tire deposits a lot of water and dirt directly onto the chain near the front derailleur. The fenders are all highly modified, cut up, and use custom mounting hardware to make them work with my bike and other equipment."

Then, ask yourself why Steve has a rear mudflap fitted when he is not riding with anyone else.  The marginal losses do add up!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 16 December, 2015, 07:21:51 am
This thread reminds me that cyclists are no better than or different to football fans.

Most of the crowd think that they are tactically more astute than the manager of their favourite team, and also seem to magically know which players would fit best into the team.   Funny then that they are not all running successful football clubs.  No?

In the crowd there are the ultras, those there to rip up the seats, throw flares, fight with anybody including amongst themselves.   Then there are the neutrals, there to enjoy the beautiful game.   Finally, you get the died in the wool hardcore loyal supporters who will remain faithful to their first love 'in sickness and in health'.   

Me?  Oh, I'm here to enjoy the beautiful game.  :D   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 16 December, 2015, 07:54:30 am
In chess, we call them kibitzers*. The great thing is that the star players genuinely rub shoulders with the woodpushers* and after the game, everything is replayed in slow motion with a crowd standing around watching and listening to the grandmasters. That way, you get the benefit of what did happen and an exploration of a lot of the possibilities that didn't.

Matthew Sadler, who at his peak was something like World no 7 and against whom I have a 50% record  :smug:, always used to sit with his mother after his games and show them to her. I don't think she was any better than a pretty basic player, but it was always really interesting because he would explain his thoughts to her and those of us who could play a bit would get the benefit of his explanation.

*terms introduced by Bobby Fischer
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 16 December, 2015, 08:16:31 am
It pretty much goes without saying that there is a sense of continual amazement, and a real element of 'we are not worthy' when it comes to Steve's achievements to date, and yet in this context people do seem to have current and differing thoughts/opinions on the record attempt  :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 16 December, 2015, 08:18:21 am
I read the 'advice' as simply a bunch of concerned supporters of Steve seeing his incredible efforts losing their way a bit and desperately offering suggestions that might help him get back on track. I don't think anyone's suggesting they know better than him how to do this, but they can see that it's not going the way it needs to if he's to succeed in his quest to beat Tommy. If it ends up that he doesn't make it, no-one would ever suggest that it wasn't for lack of trying - but we'd all prefer that he does make it!

Perhaps it doesn't help that Kurt is riding at the same time and, for a number of reasons - not least slightly better luck - he's likely to succeed, so, naturally, people will urge Steve to adopt some of the techniques that have worked for Kurt. They may be inappropriate, impossible, or just not right for Steve, but they aren't suggested in a spirit of 'knowing better', simply looking for anything that might help.

There's no-one here that wishes anything but the best for Steve, I'm quite sure of that.

I'm not suggesting that anyone wishes Steve ill, but I think you are plain wrong in your analysis (although there is a spectrum where you are right at one end ;) ). There are many that have, since day 1, expressed their opinion that he would be better doing x, y or z.  Sharing the benefit of their experience from riding, say 10,000 miles in a year, because that's the way to ride 75,000 miles a year. Well, I've done the first and I understand that doing the second is an entirely different beast, no matter that both are done on bikes.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 16 December, 2015, 08:56:12 am
Personally I think the approach Steve has taken is fascinating - mostly because it seems so unbelievable cruel to himself both mentally and physically.   The record has kind of drifted into the background for me when viewing Steves attempt as it seems very clear that the only way it can be beaten is to ride short, fast circuits multiple times in a bunch or to have long straight roads in a massive country with motorized support and transfers.   I find Steves approach impossible to comprehend - but I do respect it for what it is, and find it compelling.

I now don't believe the record can be broken in Britain, by someone riding out and back, on a heavy touring bike with loads of extra layers and kit on board.   I just think hes giving himself a beating chasing the record with the wrong kit and the wrong routes.   My opinion has only really changed to this viewpoint recently after seeing what Kurt has been doing on his loop approach.

I have tried to ride long winter routes a few times in my short cycling history and found it really hard  - the extra layers and heavier kit, the cold lonely food breaks, the battering from the elements miles from home - it just isn't my thing.   Yesterday I had a day off and fancied a long ride - but I thought I would see how a circuit approach worked.   So I spent the first 3 hours riding a 3 mile loop around my house.   It has a mile long but very gradual and easy climb,  followed by a mile of flat then a mile of down.    I averaged 17mph for those 3 hours and seemingly put very little effort in.   Then I set off and did a 30 mile loop, where I average 16mph and then back home again for more 3mile loops and I finished 100 miles in 6 hours, which is a PB century for me by close to an hour.

There is no science here what so ever, but it did occur to me that short circuits around my house meant I could nip back every couple of hours for a coffee and food, I was then warm and refreshed and saving time faffing on the roadside.   I also found it easy to maintain 17mph average which is something I havnt been near on a century ride before.    If I had of removed my bike packing kit, had a carbon race bike with tri bars and had a team of riders to draft and a masseuse booked for the evening then I could really start to see the possibilities.

Yes its boring - but short, favorable circuits close to a base is without doubt in my mind the only way for a British rider to get through a winter with the record intact.  People have said this approach will harm Steve mentally - seems to me like some fast, easy miles for a few weeks would do his mental state the world of good!

Im not saying that's what Steve should do - because this thing should be what he wants to make it - and I have loved following his progress.   Hes still going to be a record holder and a British cycling legend - I just cant see the record being broken unless he changes it up, drastically and quickly
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LEE on 16 December, 2015, 09:15:11 am
I think it depends on HOW Steve wants to break the record.
There's no point in him breaking the record if he's not happy with the way he did it.  Would Steve be happy being driven/flown to sunnier places, with flatter roads? Transplanted to more favourable conditions?

Steve may or may not take the record back from Kurt (assuming Kurt stays healthy) next summer, but I'm fairly sure that, if he does, he'll be the very last person to set the record on British roads, through a British winter, Tommy Godwin style.

I see the record as a sort of English Channel swimming record, you can't just transplant it to a warm swimming pool and think it's the same challenge.

The differences in cycling warm and cycling cold are huge.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tim Hall on 16 December, 2015, 09:16:14 am
In chess, we call them kibitzers*.
<snip>

*terms introduced by Bobby Fischer

<wildly OT>

I think kibitzer predates Bobby Fischer.  I first encountered "kibitz" in Moonraker, where it was used in relation to working out what cards an opponent had and Wikipedia tells me Moonraker was published in 1955, when Bobby Fischer was 12.  Of course he may well have been responsible for bringing the term to chess.

</wildly OT>
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 16 December, 2015, 09:30:25 am
HK and I supported Steve through multiple 24hr TTs but it took years of arguments to get him to take advantage of our support (and finally admit that it made a big difference). Some of us do know what we are talking about and Steve, like most folk, can be wrong, even with regards to riding megamiles.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 16 December, 2015, 09:34:19 am
In chess, we call them kibitzers*.
<snip>

*terms introduced by Bobby Fischer

<wildly OT>

I think kibitzer predates Bobby Fischer.  I first encountered "kibitz" in Moonraker, where it was used in relation to working out what cards an opponent had and Wikipedia tells me Moonraker was published in 1955, when Bobby Fischer was 12.  Of course he may well have been responsible for bringing the term to chess.

</wildly OT>

You are right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Kibitzer

I had always assumed that it was Fischer's, largely, I suppose, because of its American-Jewish association (and despite his later life rantings, he was born an American Jew) and the fact that he was by far the best US chess player of his era, and by a shorter distance and time, the world's best player.

I have no idea if there is a Russian equivalent of "kibitzer".
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 16 December, 2015, 09:35:42 am
Current thoughts on the record attempt? Well, both Steve and Kurt have proved themselves worthy contenders. I don't think I am in a position to give advice to either of them, despite being able to ride a bike. What is needed is as far from my experience and understanding as racing up the Tourmalet with the pro peleton and as useful as telling Sagan he needs to turn his pedals faster to win (even if it is factually correct). I'm constantly impressed by the the quality of advice and experience that, if only Steve would adopt, he would be doing better.

I do remember that a month or two before the start of the record attempt, Steve came on here, announced his attempt and said something to the effect of "So, aero equipment, what's all that about then?"  It's fine if he didn't know that sort of stuff, but asking about it on an internet forum shortly before the start isn't the way to go about things!  He also originally planned to do the record with a much more low-budget modus operandi than he's ended up doing now that other people have got on board to be his team: he'd been intending to do it basically off the back of his own savings, and had made some comment like "I've found a pair of tribars I like that only cost £30" as evidence of his cost-cutting.  In my (hopefully not particularly controversial) opinion, starting a year's record attempt by saving a couple of hundred quid on a few sets of tribars isn't getting things in correct proportion.  So while he obviously has a lot of relevant experience in many elements of the record attempt, he isn't beyond critique. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 16 December, 2015, 09:43:20 am
Kurt had similar issues. Ended up posting requests for better tyres, could people send him inner tubes. Asking what was the best rack for a car, because he'd had bikes drop off his several times. Saddle sores and suggested saddles.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 16 December, 2015, 09:46:00 am
Indeed. Early on, his preparation looked quite shoddy compared to Steve's. There was one day when he had about 4 broken bikes and not one working one IIRC.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 16 December, 2015, 09:48:59 am
Kurt has learned as he has gone along, fixed / upgraded his equipment, fine-tuned his approach and adapted to changes in circumstances.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jack_P on 16 December, 2015, 10:15:31 am
Quote
That's the problem.  There aren't enough hours in the day for the tortoise approach unfortunately, and that's been clear from early on.
To me its become apparent that this is a "racers" record. Tommy and now Kurt are Elite level athletes who can ride fast enough to get the required recovery to do it again and again, what ever the location.

Steves performance is mind blowing but his long steady approach appears to causing fatigue problems. Recently one of his Strava posts stated "Finally got some payback for all the headwinds I have fought" and he put in an admirable 233 miles, but it was at a moving average of 15.3 mph and an elapsed time of 20 hours. Just no comparison to Kurts long rides from A-B

Is Steve now effectively 2300 miles behind Kurt (Steve 1300 below and Kurt +1000 above the Godwin line) 10 days riding ...crikey :-\

Steve is a hero and has beyond doubt set a years distance record in the UK that anyone will find hard to beat in modern times.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 16 December, 2015, 10:16:15 am
Kurt has learned as he has gone along, fixed / upgraded his equipment, fine-tuned his approach and adapted to changes in circumstances.
whereas...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 16 December, 2015, 10:37:46 am
Kurt has learned as he has gone along, fixed / upgraded his equipment, fine-tuned his approach and adapted to changes in circumstances.
whereas...

As I said a few pages back, Steve's options are much more limited that Kurt's because his average speed is about 4mph slower. That's 48 miles over a 12 hour day.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LEE on 16 December, 2015, 10:55:02 am
Kurt has learned as he has gone along, fixed / upgraded his equipment, fine-tuned his approach and adapted to changes in circumstances.
whereas...

As I said a few pages back, Steve's options are much more limited that Kurt's because his average speed is about 4mph slower. That's 48 miles over a 12 hour day.

I have to say that, for me, the record should be done as one continuous bike ride.  You start the day from where you finished the previous evening.
Once you start driving between starting locations you open this up to Team SKY using a luxurious tour bus to drive you repeatedly South West overnight, or to wherever the prevailing winds are blowing from.  Taken to its logical extreme you can start flying your rider to the flattest roads with the strongest tailwinds.

At some point it becomes similar to swimming the English Channel in a heated swimming pool.

I foresee various categories of the record emerging, just like Everest Ascents (Everest with oxygen, without oxygen, not carrying a piano, carrying a piano..etc).

It's a shame the record was ratified, and had its profile raised, before Steve could just get on with beating the original record, Godwin Style.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 16 December, 2015, 11:00:46 am
In chess, we call them kibitzers*.
<snip>

*terms introduced by Bobby Fischer

<wildly OT>

I think kibitzer predates Bobby Fischer.  I first encountered "kibitz" in Moonraker, where it was used in relation to working out what cards an opponent had and Wikipedia tells me Moonraker was published in 1955, when Bobby Fischer was 12.  Of course he may well have been responsible for bringing the term to chess.

</wildly OT>

One of the P-51 fighters in Len Deighton's Goodbye Mickey Mouse was called "The Kibitzer".
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 16 December, 2015, 11:02:02 am
'Godwin Style' is where you're sponsored by a major bike manufacturer and have a car slipstraming pacing following and supporting you for half the year, right?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 16 December, 2015, 12:40:22 pm
As soon as you start splitting the record into categories, where do you stop?  I can think of at least 6 clear distinctions (recumbent use, car transfers, on-road support, different start-stop points, drafting other riders, multiple countries, etc), presumably each with their own age-related sub-categories, and even then you can be sure someone would ask for another to be added. It's not long before the "record" becomes meaningless as you could have 30 simultaneous "holders".

There is now, at last, a record with (fairly) clearly defined rules, thanks mainly to Steve.  It's up to potential challengers whether they are willing to sign up to those rules and, if so, how they can maximise them to their advantage.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 16 December, 2015, 12:50:32 pm
It is sobering to see Steve slipping ever further behind the target pace set by Tommy (and from around 5 January, Kurt). 

I don't expect any but a handful of people know if it's because his strategy is wrong, he has made a calamitous decision (diet change?), has simply been unfortunate, or is not up to the task.

All I feel I can do is hope Steve gets stronger, sooner.  And offer occasional words of support.  I'm humble enough to realise that nothing somebody like me can suggest will make a significant difference to the outcome for Steve, particularly in the short term where any material change might be overly disruptive and so compound the current issues (whatever they are). 

Steve has perhaps always had his work cut out because of the self-sufficient approach he chose.  What is possibly becoming clearer is that he lacks a consistent, keen edge of speed endurance that marks out Kurt (and apparently Bruce) and which would give more flexibility when the chips are fully down.  Ranking Steve's longest distance days against Kurt's is quite informative, particularly if average speed/time on the bike is also included.

If I'm honest, I'm currently pessimistic about Steve's chances and I don't think there is much he can do to fully reverse this situation.  That Steve is doing it his own way is to his credit, as it means that any success or lack of it will reflect what he thought was best.  Hopefully my pessimism will turn out to simply be ignorance of Steve's strength and he is successful in reaching whatever goal he has set.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 16 December, 2015, 12:56:14 pm
I have to say that, for me, the record should be done as one continuous bike ride.  You start the day from where you finished the previous evening.
Once you start driving between starting locations you open this up to Team SKY using a luxurious tour bus to drive you repeatedly South West overnight, or to wherever the prevailing winds are blowing from.  Taken to its logical extreme you can start flying your rider to the flattest roads with the strongest tailwinds.

At some point it becomes similar to swimming the English Channel in a heated swimming pool.

I foresee various categories of the record emerging, just like Everest Ascents (Everest with oxygen, without oxygen, not carrying a piano, carrying a piano..etc).
I'm slowly coming round to the same thinking.

Forgive me for repeating this excellent analogy:
At some point it becomes similar to swimming the English Channel in a heated swimming pool.

 ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 16 December, 2015, 12:59:57 pm
That's just the nature of making and breaking records though.  If you find rules and categories distasteful, just go for a bike ride[1].


[1] Uphill both ways.  In the snow.  On fixed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 16 December, 2015, 02:23:11 pm
Kurt is doing huge miles, quickly while expanding as little energy as possible - by riding a flat, fast circuit in a bunch on a lightweight bike.   He is actually doing better with this approach than when he was using tail winds and motorized transfers.   Yes he has a decent climate - but Kurt is going to comfortably beat the record with a pretty low budget, self funded approach with a team of 1 person assisting....so I think all this talk of the record becoming unobtainable and elite is a bit silly.   Im pretty sure a Team Sky could provide a better bunch to ride with and faster kit - but I don't think spending money on logistics and transfers is the key to breaking the record.

I don't think this record does need a huge budget or a special climate to be broken - but I am pretty convinced you wont beat Kurt by regularly riding 100+ mile into the wind, on a heavy bike with touring kit on.   I am astonished and in awe of the miles Steve has done with his current approach over the space of the last year, but also convinced Kurt has the best approach - the results of each method are there for everyone to see.   There is no logistical or financial reason why Steve could not follow Kurts approach from the last couple of months.  It may not sit well with those used to Audaxing/touring, but this isn't a British Audax record - Steve already has that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: bryn on 16 December, 2015, 03:32:53 pm
Like everyone else here, I've been following this amazing attempt since 00:01 on January 1st., and Steve's tracker and mileages are the first things I look at when I wake up, and the last things I look at when I turn out the light.

Back when one-legged riding around the bowl was underway Steve was talking about still being able to break the record by the end of 2015.  Then that slowly drifted out of sight and the new 12 month period was announced.  The recent combination of illness, diet change, and stormy weather seems to make the final achievable total uncertain.  Steve has had a few very bad days recently.  Today he has been riding for 10 hours, with 188 km on the Ivan-Google clock.  I know I'm a glass-half-empty person, but it doesn't look good.  Hope I'm wrong.

BTW "kibitz" (with various spellings) is Yiddish meaning "unwanted advice".  We could rename this "The Kibitz Thread"  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bus Shelter Bertie on 16 December, 2015, 04:49:19 pm
As I see it, this record is a single statistic. Ways and means to me are irrelevant and rules are unnecessary. The record is "Greatest number of miles cycled in a year". We know the definition of cycling - no motors, no external power source, some sort of cyclic motion. Environmental forces,eg. gravity, slipstreaming are only forces employed to increase cycling efficiency.

So for example, get Steve to a long straight warm road in Australia (preferably downhill). Employ a full time truck driver to provide the full time slipstream. Count the miles. Easy.

For me, all this talk of athletic ability and fair play and categories are a distraction from the one simple statistic and who holds it. The record holder and future holders will be for those that understand this, and all will have earned the record fairly. Don't tell me that Tommy Godwin was concerned with rules, he just wanted a bigger number than anyone else.

Go Kurt. Go Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 16 December, 2015, 05:33:35 pm
Now stopped on the way into Peterborough for the last hour.

Maybe time for dinner.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ivo on 16 December, 2015, 05:57:26 pm
I've done a bit of 24 hour speedskating events, they usually take place on a 400m track. I quit doing them because they are utterly mind numbing and give an enormous stress to your body due to the onesided movement. I can perfectly understand why Steve doesn't want to take the approach Kurt has at this moment, riding around on the same stretch of route all the time. Your mind is more important as your body during all sorts of long distance events.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 16 December, 2015, 06:02:56 pm
HK and I supported Steve through multiple 24hr TTs but it took years of arguments to get him to take advantage of our support (and finally admit that it made a big difference). Some of us do know what we are talking about and Steve, like most folk, can be wrong, even with regards to riding megamiles.





Has your kind offer to help shortly been accepted yet? ?
I hope he is not completely shunning offers such as yours.  We all want him to increase his miles not continue the downward spiral of some 1300 miles already.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bobby on 16 December, 2015, 06:11:45 pm
"Current thoughts on the record attempt?"

It remains a ridiculously hard thing for anybody to do no matter what their approach or beliefs & I remain in owe of Kurt and Steve with what the have achieved.  Like others I check Jo's graphs first thing every morning & tap into many of the threads last thing at night.

It does all seem a bit gloomy for Steve at the moment.  I have to believe the diet change was out of necessity & whilst it's clearly had a big impact, Steve surely didn't have a choice. 

In general I hope Steve is not disheartened or feeling the pressure of expectation/opinion.  I cannot comprehend the mental strength required to do this every day.

Go Steve, Go Kurt
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 16 December, 2015, 06:13:51 pm
I am astonished and in awe of the miles Steve has done with his current approach over the space of the last year, but also convinced Kurt has the best approach - the results of each method are there for everyone to see.   There is no logistical or financial reason why Steve could not follow Kurts approach from the last couple of months.

What, apart from
the lack of an RV and a 365x24 support team?

(sorry about that - but the font-size seems proportionate to the number of posters ignoring this simple fact :P
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 16 December, 2015, 06:29:05 pm
I think as time goes on, watching both riders either side of the pond, with their differing approaches and fortunes, I find myself having less thoughts and concerns about both Abraham and Searvogel and have become much more curious about Godwin. Terrible winters, slower cycling technology, less accurate weather forecasting and still he managed to do all those miles in 1939. His achievement seems all the more unfathomably incredible to me after watching the current attempts - almost to the point where one could easily question if he even did them at all. Build like an Ox must surely be a euphemism to describe Tommy Godwin.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 16 December, 2015, 06:35:31 pm
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 16 December, 2015, 06:49:56 pm
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.

It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 16 December, 2015, 06:58:12 pm
The weather so far this autumn/winter has been relatively benign. Yes it has been windy some days (in a windy year overall) but not atypical for a British autumn/winter at all. Rainfall over the area covered by Steve has been well within average amounts, and quite dry in the east. Temperatures have been several degrees above average, in fact this is the most remarkable statistic, today it reached 15C, that's way above the seasonal norm. I've only recorded 3 air frosts at my weather station in south Oxfordshire, all of them in late November. The night time minima have been remarkable too, 12.7C last night, that's insane for mid-December. The lowest daily maximum temperature so far has been 5.9C.

Couldn't really ask for much more that that, so I don't think weather can be blamed, it couldn't really have been much better!!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 16 December, 2015, 07:01:56 pm
It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A

Wonderful.  I especially liked the guy with the handcart stopping at the red lights on Oxford Street!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 16 December, 2015, 07:22:28 pm
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.

It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A

I love the way the cameraman's car is just randomly parked in most scenes with vehicles swerving around it. Some pretty bad driving in a few of those scenes too.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 16 December, 2015, 07:22:41 pm
I am astonished and in awe of the miles Steve has done with his current approach over the space of the last year, but also convinced Kurt has the best approach - the results of each method are there for everyone to see.   There is no logistical or financial reason why Steve could not follow Kurts approach from the last couple of months.

What, apart from
the lack of an RV and a 365x24 support team?

(sorry about that - but the font-size seems proportionate to the number of posters ignoring this simple fact :P

Why exactly do you need an RV or a 365 support team to do this?...
https://www.strava.com/activities/450897955


The way you talk you would think Kurt has got Dave Brailsford dong his laundry and Shane Sutton feeding him flapjacks.   One vehicle + one driver are not exactly impossible things to find ....and they would not do a jot of good if Steve was still on his Sojourn, with a laptop onboard doing 200 mile loops into headwinds and up hills.    A massive change of approach would still be required and it seems to me it is the lack of intent to change that is the problem rather than any logistics.   

You just need a good base near the loop of your choosing, preferably sheltered from the wind , with plenty of local riders to help out - then assistance at home before and after the ride...those things are readily available if the offers that have been made are to be believed.   Im sure many would have taken a weeks holiday in exchange to play a part in the record being broken?

How much would it really cost to hire a support vehicle and employ various drivers for the year - we are told there is enough funding for an overseas base if needed/wanted ... It would seem the money is there.   I am pretty sure if more money had of been asked for it would have been given?   Even if that approach was taken for a quarter of the year it could have had a huge impact.

 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 16 December, 2015, 07:28:05 pm
TheRedEyeJedi,

Not having intimate knowledge of Steve's finances, I don't think we can comment fairly either way.   Would you like to contribute to pay for a full time driver and an RV to support Steve on his way?

I don't see why you need to be so aggressive in your assertions. 

Steve and Kurt have different approaches, neither is right nor wrong, just different.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 16 December, 2015, 07:33:00 pm
It pains me to say this but I predict that there is going to be some obscene gloating and disrespectful willy waving from some quarters when Kurt crosses the line.   Not the done thing chaps.   This is not the Ryder Cup y'know. 

Kurt of course will remain a gentleman and will have earned the right to celebrate his achievement when it comes.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 16 December, 2015, 07:38:19 pm
TheRedEyeJedi,

Not having intimate knowledge of Steve's finances, I don't think we can comment fairly either way.   Would you like to contribute to pay for a full time driver and an RV to support Steve on his way?

I don't see why you need to be so aggressive in your assertions. 

Steve and Kurt have different approaches, neither is right nor wrong, just different.   

Im not sure why you think I was being aggressive - I wasnt the one enlarging my text!!! ;D  Nothing I have said was supposed to sound aggressive so apologies if it did.

I find Steves approach more captivating than Kurts.  However, I think we can clearly see that if you want to break the record then Kurts approach is exactly right.  He is going to beat the record with comfort as long as something terrible doesnt happen....Im not quite sure how much more "right" an attempt could be?  There are quite clearly rights and wrongs involved in a record attempt and Kurt has learnt and adapted as he has gone on.  If the record could be broken easily with any old approach then I dont think it would have stood for this long.   

Steves approach so far has not worked for any length of time - and when he has tried harder he has become ill.   I find this assumption that Kurt has had advantages or logistical advances that are beyond Steve to be a little strange.   Steve has this record in him - we can all see this - he is just making it too hard for himself in my opinion.  I respect that, but the record is set in stone and respect doesnt play a part in breaking it.  Godwin didnt have it as hard as Steve is making it for himself.

Kurt has one vehicle and one assistant - and at the moment he isnt really using them much.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 16 December, 2015, 07:55:33 pm

Kurt has one vehicle and one assistant - and at the moment he isnt really using them much.
"much" ? Are we following the same Kurt?    :-\

You admit you have no idea the cost of an RV+driver; and no idea of Steve's budget. I'd say that without these 2 basic facts you are firmly in the Kibitzer camp.(don't worry- it is a camp with many residents,  many sharing your views and knowldege of riding 70,000 miles a year!)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 16 December, 2015, 08:02:15 pm
Budget isn't a massive problem for Steve. He doesn't have to cut corners on that account. FB has said as much previously.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 16 December, 2015, 08:07:55 pm

Kurt has one vehicle and one assistant - and at the moment he isnt really using them much.
"much" ? Are we following the same Kurt?    :-\

You admit you have no idea the cost of an RV+driver; and no idea of Steve's budget. I'd say that without these 2 basic facts you are firmly in the Kibitzer camp.(don't worry- it is a camp with many residents,  many sharing your views and knowldege of riding 70,000 miles a year!)

My knowledge of riding that distance is the same as yours ...we look to the approach Godwin and Kurt as the only two people who have done it.  However, if we only allow people who have covered these distances to give a point of view on here then these threads will be pretty short!

I have no idea why you are fixated on the idea of the RV....Kurt is doing more miles now that he ISNT using motor transfers.   The RV is currently a taxi to take him to and from the loop start line and to keep food and kit in along the side of his loops.. Im sure Steve could follow that approach if he wanted.

I can completely see the psychological benefit Alicia gives Kurt (but I dont think Steve is lacking mental fortitude or determination), plus her management of the technology and social media minimizes faff ... These were things that were willingly provided for Steve by hosts and home helps at the start...I have no idea if he has offers to help him with those things if he went toward doing a local loop ride like Kurt but my guess is there would be no shortage of offers?   

My opinions on his budget are only what is being disclosed on here by people in the know...ie that there is enough money for carbon bikes, a base abroad and additional help and logistics.   From  my knowledge of crowd funding and the interest generated in the attempt I am pretty sure if Steve said he needed to raise a certain mount to pay for key logistics he would have raised that money.

Im not sure why we need a special name for people that have a different viewpoint from yours?   The debate and musings over the best way to beat this record should be one of the fun things about it...I dont understand the boo hooing of people who think things could be done differently?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jamesld8 on 16 December, 2015, 08:22:02 pm
Kurt has learned as he has gone along, fixed / upgraded his equipment, fine-tuned his approach and adapted to changes in circumstances.
whereas...

As I said a few pages back, Steve's options are much more limited that Kurt's because his average speed is about 4mph slower. That's 48 miles over a 12 hour day.

and IIRC many months ago LWAB also pointed out that Steve needed lift his average speed to get the record; just saw on FB that Kurt did shade over 400km at 20 mph ---that`s way above what Steve is managing currently, or at any point during record attempt.

There appears to have been no strategy change since LWAB`s observation months ago despite very many offers / ideas to assist.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 16 December, 2015, 08:23:17 pm
If Steve's current plan was working there wouldn't be any questioning.  It appears not to be working, so it would be pretty amazing if there weren't any questions being asked or suggestions put forward, particularly as his effort is being partly crowd-funded by folks here.  No need for any unpleasantness from either side.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 16 December, 2015, 08:43:44 pm
If Steve's current plan was working there wouldn't be any questioning.  It appears not to be working, so it would be pretty amazing if there weren't any questions being asked or suggestions put forward, particularly as his effort is being partly crowd-funded by folks here.  No need for any unpleasantness from either side.






PLUS ONE
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 16 December, 2015, 08:45:43 pm
TheRedEyeJedi,

Not having intimate knowledge of Steve's finances, I don't think we can comment fairly either way.   Would you like to contribute to pay for a full time driver and an RV to support Steve on his way?

I don't see why you need to be so aggressive in your assertions. 

Steve and Kurt have different approaches, neither is right nor wrong, just different.   

Steves approach so far has not worked for any length of time - and when he has tried harder he has become ill.   I find this assumption that Kurt has had advantages or logistical advances that are beyond Steve to be a little strange.   Steve has this record in him - we can all see this - he is just making it too hard for himself in my opinion.  I respect that, but the record is set in stone and respect doesnt play a part in breaking it.  Godwin didnt have it as hard as Steve is making it for himself.

Kurt has one vehicle and one assistant - and at the moment he isnt really using them much.




PLUS ONE
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 16 December, 2015, 08:50:50 pm
How much would it really cost to hire a support vehicle and employ various drivers for the year - we are told there is enough funding for an overseas base if needed/wanted ... It would seem the money is there.   I am pretty sure if more money had of been asked for it would have been given?   Even if that approach was taken for a quarter of the year it could have had a huge impact.

I donated some money at the start and would have donated some more later in the year when I got a new job, but by then it was a few months into the year, my hosting offer to Steve had gone unacknowledged and we weren't getting any updates.  I wanted to support a year record attempt, not an open-ended mega tour, so I decided not to donate any more.  I'd love to see Steve take the record and I'd happily support him in any way I could if he said he needed it and success looked realistic, either with a continuation of this attempt or with a new attempt. 

One thing to remember about Kurt vs Steve at the present time is that Kurt openly admits that his body is falling apart, but he's weeks from the end of the record so he's able to lift it for the final sprint.  Steve's body has had just as much wear and tear but he still has another 6+ months to go, which can't be a nice position to be in.  I don't know what Steve's financial status is wrt his job, donations in the pot, taking a break and starting a new attempt after several months' rest, but from a performance point of view that may be his best option.  I'd happily start donating again for that, but would hope that he'd find a team who would let us know what was going on, and would get some bikes that weren't 30lb lumps of Godwin-era steel!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 16 December, 2015, 09:20:04 pm
Agree ppb, this was supposed to be a One year time trial. 5 months almost was wasted because of the moped but the challenge continued. In that respect Kurt is at a disadvantage his ex wife wants him back in the office on 11th January I imagine
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 16 December, 2015, 09:45:03 pm
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.

It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A

I love the way the cameraman's car is just randomly parked in most scenes with vehicles swerving around it. Some pretty bad driving in a few of those scenes too.

Godwins' peak mileage was done on roads like that, as a series of 50 mile team time trials, for 16 hours a day throughout the summer.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 16 December, 2015, 10:32:51 pm
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.

It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A







Many thanks for bringing that film to our attention.  I know lorries were slow and restricted to 20mph in 1939 so tommy could easily have tucked in with ease. Think it was in the 50,s when that went up to 30 mph and we really thought we was moving. Later in the 60s it went up to 40 mph so Tommy wouldn't have kept up then +
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: contango on 17 December, 2015, 04:17:13 am
I'm beginning to think that the record needs to be split a bit like the hour record did a few years ago....
One based on a pure Godwin effort like Steve is doing and a Kurt record which is assisted, car transfers etc. Comparing Steve and Kurt is comparing apples and pears, it's not like for like.

The trouble with doing that is that you'd end up with so many different variations of the record that any entrant could be all but guaranteed to become a record holder by registering a slight variation on the theme. What happens if someone decides to ride 28,000 laps of a 3-mile circuit in a year, would that be a different record?

How closely do you think the two riders should match in their efforts? In the US you can ride for 100 miles without stopping at all; in the UK that sort of thing isn't going to happen. In the US you get far greater temperature variations than in the UK. Ultimately both men have taken on a huge challenge and achieved something that frankly boggles my mind. Even if there were only one record (and from what people say it sounds like there are multiple records based on age), there's no shame for either man if they come second.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Auntie Helen on 17 December, 2015, 06:53:52 am
Wrt cost, I think it's in the Süddeutsche Zeitung article that Kurt says this record is costing him about a dollar a mile.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 17 December, 2015, 07:35:57 am
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.

It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A

I love the way the cameraman's car is just randomly parked in most scenes with vehicles swerving around it. Some pretty bad driving in a few of those scenes too.

Godwins' peak mileage was done on roads like that, as a series of 50 mile team time trials, for 16 hours a day throughout the summer.

I wish people would stop quoting this "unfact". Godwin did not ride with a team. Teams as we know them did not exist in the UK in the 1930-40's as all racing was based around individual time trials and tracks. Godwin ride mainly solo, paced by Charlie Davey who egged him on from a car. Bennett had Rene Menzies and a motorbike. He rode his huge days in reaction to Bennett at the beck of Davey and Raleigh.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 17 December, 2015, 08:06:41 am
I'm beginning to think that the record needs to be split a bit like the hour record did a few years ago....
One based on a pure Godwin effort like Steve is doing and a Kurt record which is assisted, car transfers etc. Comparing Steve and Kurt is comparing apples and pears, it's not like for like.

The trouble with doing that is that you'd end up with so many different variations of the record that any entrant could be all but guaranteed to become a record holder by registering a slight variation on the theme. What happens if someone decides to ride 28,000 laps of a 3-mile circuit in a year, would that be a different record?

How closely do you think the two riders should match in their efforts? In the US you can ride for 100 miles without stopping at all; in the UK that sort of thing isn't going to happen. In the US you get far greater temperature variations than in the UK. Ultimately both men have taken on a huge challenge and achieved something that frankly boggles my mind. Even if there were only one record (and from what people say it sounds like there are multiple records based on age), there's no shame for either man if they come second.

Not if you ride a 100 mile + route ....but if you pick a short loop with no junctions or traffic lights it is very possible to ride for 100 miles in England without stopping.   I am not sure why Kurts current strategy is being ignored so much.   He is not making use of a massive country or his RV ...he is riding fast, short loops around a base with a group of familiar and fast riders shielding him.   This is his best period of the whole challenge and he seems to be holding up both mentally and physically better than when he was out by himself with the RV and Alicia.

Steve cant do that for a year for his own sanity...but its got to be worth a go to pull him through this patch.   I seem to remember Kurt being at his wits end before he got into this routine of fast, supported miles
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 17 December, 2015, 08:14:02 am
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then.

Are there reports of him drafting lorries up and down the A1 for any length of time? I've not read the book, but if that is the case, then his achievement is all the more astounding to me, because emissions and air quality behind a wagon in 1939 must have been horrible.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 17 December, 2015, 09:18:09 am
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then.

Are there reports of him drafting lorries up and down the A1 for any length of time? I've not read the book, but if that is the case, then his achievement is all the more astounding to me, because emissions and air quality behind a wagon in 1939 must have been horrible.

The only mention of it is a fleeting piece in the cycling press where he rode roads "often frequented by lorries". It's not clear if he did this for drafting purposes or if it happened by coincidence.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 17 December, 2015, 11:29:16 am
A 'big' truck in 1939 was a Leyland Buffalo.

Even bigger was a Scammell Pioneer.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 17 December, 2015, 11:38:10 am
Imagine 300 miles at 40mph...
https://vimeo.com/50872582 (https://vimeo.com/50872582)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: bodach on 17 December, 2015, 11:57:31 am
This wee clip reminds me of the days when I could do the 27 mls from office to home in 39 mins way back yonder.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 17 December, 2015, 12:29:35 pm
[slightly OT]Srsly? On a bike?[/slightly OT]
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 17 December, 2015, 12:37:24 pm
Thanks for putting that clip on.  Went to the cinema twice to watch  (the cutters ) breaking away!  It is the way to do it!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on 17 December, 2015, 01:23:08 pm
This wee clip reminds me of the days when I could do the 27 mls from office to home in 39 mins way back yonder.
If you were drafting, I can believe it.

I've managed to get tucked in behind a tractor on the A64 a few times. The hardest bit has been avoiding running into the tractor on the downhills, even a very very slight downhill would be enough to take my speed up above 25mph. I'm as unathletic as they come and in those conditions I could maintain 25mph average and scarcely break a sweat.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: DaveE128 on 17 December, 2015, 01:23:48 pm
Seems a bit off to me, calling those that offer opinions on the best approach silly names.

It's a sporting endeavour. People have opinions on sport. (Consider football!) This is a thread to discuss "thoughts on the record attempt". What's the problem?

These people aren't phoning up/emailing Steve and telling him he's doing it all wrong are they? Otherwise it's just a public discussion on something we're obviously all interested in.

 ::-)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hatler on 17 December, 2015, 01:27:50 pm
This wee clip reminds me of the days when I could do the 27 mls from office to home in 39 mins way back yonder.
If you were drafting, I can believe it.

I've managed to get tucked in behind a tractor on the A64 a few times. The hardest bit has been avoiding running into the tractor on the downhills, even a very very slight downhill would be enough to take my speed up above 25mph. I'm as unathletic as they come and in those conditions I could maintain 25mph average and scarcely break a sweat.
Yup. At 40mph, two feet off the back of a double decker bus on a flat road I find myself spending more time on the brakes than the pedals.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 17 December, 2015, 01:32:33 pm
I've managed to get tucked in behind a tractor on the A64 a few times. The hardest bit has been avoiding running into the tractor on the downhills, even a very very slight downhill would be enough to take my speed up above 25mph. I'm as unathletic as they come and in those conditions I could maintain 25mph average and scarcely break a sweat.

I can report a similar experience from drafting Teethgrinder on my recumbent.   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: DaveE128 on 17 December, 2015, 01:47:43 pm
I think a few thread contributors might be interested to look at Steve's live tracker for today...

http://audaxclubhackney.co.uk/tg.html
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 17 December, 2015, 02:00:39 pm
I think a few thread contributors might be interested to look at Steve's live tracker for today...

http://audaxclubhackney.co.uk/tg.html

Nice move - Go Steve!

What is the length and profile of MK bowl like?   Is it open 24/7?

Does Steve have to ride the Raleigh through the year in return for the sponsorship.... I presume he owns other bikes which may be more suited to riding loops of a closed circuit?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 17 December, 2015, 02:09:14 pm
What is the length and profile of MK bowl like?   Is it open 24/7?

It's 1km long with a 10 metre rise, IIRC.  So substantially hillier than what he usually rides.

I think he has to make special arrangements for access.  It's not something you can just turn up to and ride (or turn up to and shout encouragement).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 17 December, 2015, 02:14:41 pm
What is the length and profile of MK bowl like?   Is it open 24/7?

It's 1km long with a 10 metre rise, IIRC.  So substantially hillier than what he usually rides.

I think he has to make special arrangements for access.  It's not something you can just turn up to and ride (or turn up to and shout encouragement).

That's actually quite a bit shorter and hillier than I was expecting  - that's 3300m of climbing over the course of a Godwin?   I guess its quite a gradual gradient but that still seems far from ideal?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 17 December, 2015, 02:16:13 pm
Example: https://www.strava.com/activities/287914171
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Vince on 17 December, 2015, 02:41:30 pm
Example: https://www.strava.com/activities/287914171
I guess the tide was going out on that one.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 17 December, 2015, 02:47:16 pm
Steve needs to hire this (http://www.amusingplanet.com/2014/07/nardo-ring-porsches-high-speed-test.html) for a year :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 17 December, 2015, 05:05:20 pm
Anyone know what the current annual elevation/climbing record is?  Steve's currently on ~452000m.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 17 December, 2015, 05:13:21 pm
There isn't an official record, AFAIK.
Historically, elevation gain has been more difficult to measure (and validate) than distance.

452km is  a lot, but isn't that much compared to the BSD's.  Brian Toone is often tickling the top of the Strava elevation leaderboard.  His year to date is close to 1000km.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 17 December, 2015, 05:51:23 pm
The benefit of Alicia+RV seems obvious and enormous. Perhaps one way to appreciate this - for those that have followed Kurt's diary entries,  videos etc -  is to think about how his year would pan out without either Alicia, the RV,  or both.  ( I was going to list the differences ... but I don't know where to start!)

Or read today's post from Alicia:

...
We've worked so hard all year for this. I think it's hard to comprehend what Kurt does all day and how he does it. I don't believe most understanding all the work and juggling I do everyday to make this happen, but that's ok. It works and we are getting it done! ~ Alicia

[my bold]
Downplaying her contribution is doing her a great dis-service.

And of course I should congratulate them BOTH on their efforts :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 17 December, 2015, 06:29:06 pm
Steve needs to hire this (http://www.amusingplanet.com/2014/07/nardo-ring-porsches-high-speed-test.html) for a year :)

Millbrook oval is only just over an hour's ride from Steve  :demon:

Unfortunately  "Other prohibited items include ... pedal bikes and animals."   ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 17 December, 2015, 06:39:58 pm
Steve needs to hire this (http://www.amusingplanet.com/2014/07/nardo-ring-porsches-high-speed-test.html) for a year :)

Millbrook oval is only just over an hour's ride from Steve  :demon:

Unfortunately  "Other prohibited items include ... pedal bikes and animals."   ;)

The HPV hour record has been set there in the past, albeit in 1990.  Getting it for more than a couple of weekend hours?  Fuhgeddaboutit.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 18 December, 2015, 06:48:28 am
Don't blink. Abrams is fast.
(http://i1085.photobucket.com/albums/j433/Lighthorse2/dragster_zpsmlq5gjea.png) (http://s1085.photobucket.com/user/Lighthorse2/media/dragster_zpsmlq5gjea.png.html)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 18 December, 2015, 06:50:04 am
Steve needs to hire this (http://www.amusingplanet.com/2014/07/nardo-ring-porsches-high-speed-test.html) for a year :)

Millbrook oval is only just over an hour's ride from Steve  :demon:

Millbrook has a circle. Rockingham has an oval.
Millbrook is about twenty five minutes on a bike from Steve's.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 18 December, 2015, 09:22:20 am
Steve returns to the Bowl for a second day.  A day where the trees outside my office are still, the sky is steely but with no threat of rain, and the temperature is in double figures.  And the forecast for the weekend would appear to lend itself well to venturing far and wide.

From the outside, this feels like a challenge that is on a trolley being shunted towards intensive care.  It's almost as if Steve has taken a dose from a bottle of anti-bionics rather than anti-biotics.  It's selfish to say it, but I'm not finding it comfortable viewing at the moment. 

I've never believed in Christmas miracles, but by golly I hope Santa delivers Steve some whatever it is he needs to get back up to full strength over the festive period.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 18 December, 2015, 09:47:20 am
Very well worded Billy
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: notlobgp14 on 18 December, 2015, 11:36:24 am

I've never believed in Christmas miracles, but by golly I hope Santa delivers Steve some whatever it is he needs to get back up to full strength over the festive period.

Well said and +1 for the above wish.

There must be something going on which we are not aware of; why the secrecy?  If Steve is following any of this chatter, not sure when he finds time to, he could make it all a bit more positive by letting supporters know what he's thinking, doing and planning.  When I say he I mean one of the Team, if there still is a Team?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ian H on 18 December, 2015, 11:45:48 am
There's been a good response to this.
youtube link (https://youtu.be/85fQYevbt5c)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: drgannet on 18 December, 2015, 11:54:35 am
There's been a good response to this.
youtube link (https://youtu.be/85fQYevbt5c)

What does that mean? All we see is that 18 days later nothing has changed, apart from Steve is managing fewer miles. My presumption from what little information is available is that he is still pretty unwell (and all I can do is wish him well and pray he recovers quickly).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 18 December, 2015, 12:49:12 pm
There's been a good response to this.
youtube link (https://youtu.be/85fQYevbt5c)

Posted by LWAB last week...

"I've made offers via a current team member...sound of crickets followed"
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 18 December, 2015, 12:58:07 pm
There must be something going on which we are not aware of; why the secrecy?  If Steve is following any of this chatter, not sure when he finds time to, he could make it all a bit more positive by letting supporters know what he's thinking, doing and planning.  When I say he I mean one of the Team, if there still is a Team?

I'm resigned to the fact that we are never going to know what's going on.  There has been a consistent pattern - things leak out days after the event but almost in spite of the team rather than because of them.  I have absolutely no idea why there has been this wall of secrecy for the entire 12 months but it has done Steve's challenge no favours IMO, and certainly not given him any advantage over his competitors (which I can only assume has been the reason for it).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 18 December, 2015, 01:38:12 pm
It strikes me that the One Year Time Trial is about redemption. Middle-aged men submitting to an ordeal to exorcise our demons. Kurt's got his relationship history and his pre-cycling chubbiness and the new challenger has alluded to struggling with depression.
I've tended to see Steve's ride as a celebration of the everyday, an extension of everyone's work routine, carried to its ultimate extent. A hero of the everyday. I touched on some of that when I talked to Steve at PBP. The challenge now is to work out a way of upping Steve's production to reach any new target.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIMA9Zux9gE
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 18 December, 2015, 01:39:20 pm
It strikes me that it's about trying to ride as far as possible on a bike.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 18 December, 2015, 01:46:37 pm
The bowl is used as a recovery 'refuge' it seems, as earlier in the year; GWS Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 18 December, 2015, 01:48:47 pm
It strikes me that it's about trying to ride as far as possible on a bike.

If that was the case no-one would be projecting values such as purity onto the event. The quality of the suffering seems to occupy a lot of the posts.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 18 December, 2015, 01:51:10 pm
It strikes me that it's about trying to ride as far as possible on a bike.

If that was the case no-one would be projecting values such as purity onto the event. The quality of the suffering seems to occupy a lot of the posts.

You said it.

We're not trying to ride as far as possible on a bike, just wanking about on the internet.


ETA: Change of plan.  Going for a bike ride.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 18 December, 2015, 01:51:58 pm
It strikes me that it's about trying to ride as far as possible on a bike.

If that was the case no-one would be projecting values such as purity onto the event. The quality of the suffering seems to occupy a lot of the posts.

Is that the definition of the recursive? ESL posting about the quality of suffering?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 18 December, 2015, 01:59:15 pm
Another interesting aspect of the final phase of Kurt's ride is the way that those who like to associate themselves with success have aligned themselves with him. I think of those who were denouncing him as 'UMCA's Golden Boy' earlier in the year, and were calling for his disqualification. Now they're toasting him with fine malt whisky.
I can see why Kurt and Alicia like to drop in for a laugh.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: clarion on 18 December, 2015, 02:02:19 pm
And Steve has now asked for vehicular assistance during the expected strong winds.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 18 December, 2015, 02:05:30 pm
I'd like to raise a seasonal glass to your health and well-being, ESL. I shall do so once the sun is over the yard-arm.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 18 December, 2015, 03:45:44 pm
Another interesting aspect of the final phase of Kurt's ride is the way that those who like to associate themselves with success have aligned themselves with him. I think of those who were denouncing him as 'UMCA's Golden Boy' earlier in the year, and were calling for his disqualification. Now they're toasting him with fine malt whisky.

I don't think it is about aligning with the successful - the upward trend of Kurt's level of social media support was established long before it was clear if he would succeed.

I think it is more to do with how updates from Kurt, even when delivered via Alicia, have been very personal and with a level of detail that involves the reader. That contrasts with the delivery of news from Steve, which from the outset gave me the impression of being heavily managed. Virtually none of it, aside from the odd interview, has a personal feel. 

I haven't posted much here of late but I do keep an eye on these threads and Facebook etc. Like many others, I have made a small monthly contribution to Steve's record attempt from the beginning. I think in the early stages there was a communication to the contributors, but since then there has been nothing. That doesn't bother me much, of course, but it is a minor symptom that indicates a larger problem. No meaningful updates at all, even to those who would be easily reachable via an email list.

At no stage has any attention been given to well-founded advice. Diet, for instance. Those bikes. The average speeds.

I find myself wondering sometimes if my contribution, when combined with those of others, is adding to pressure on Steve to continue things as they are.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 18 December, 2015, 03:48:38 pm

We're not trying to ride as far as possible on a bike, just wanking about on the internet.


ETA: Change of plan.  Going for a bike ride.

What you do is up to you. The whole structure of the One Year Time Trial interests me. That includes how it's mediated to its audience, and the interaction with those who feel they have a stake in Steve and Kurt.

The media interest ramps up as the attempt seems achievable, Kurt's getting in a lot of magazines, and his personal history forms part of those stories. Steve is going to have to spend more to stand a chance of matching Kurt, and engaging with the media will form part of that, if only to validate those who have already contributed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 18 December, 2015, 04:23:52 pm
It strikes me that the One Year Time Trial is about redemption. Middle-aged men submitting to an ordeal to exorcise our demons. Kurt's got his relationship history and his pre-cycling chubbiness and the new challenger has alluded to struggling with depression.


At least they haven't got a war to skive.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 18 December, 2015, 05:08:12 pm
I am afraid that the perception of a team working to get Steve to the record is not consistent with my experience. Several team members worked very hard for Steve -- most obviously those providing local support in and around MK .. but these were day to day logistics -- not long term planning on how best to tackle the task.

Right from the start - it was clearly stated that this was Steve's ride, he knew what he was doing and there was no point in making suggestions. Initially I saw no reason to doubt Steve's own assessment of his capabilities -- just look at his background --so here was a guy who was happy with his own company setting out to ride for a year.

However it is now becoming more and more apparent that this record, even with everything going well is at the limit of Steve's capabilities IF he rides as he is doing at the moment.

BUT tackled differently - with serious planning for the forward months -- and maybe he could do it -- however this would suggest a stop  now -- very careful discussion with the donors about the cash position -working out an ideal strategy and  finding a dedicated support  team with some changes from the current lot .. with maybe a restart on 1st Jan 2017.

Just my input -- all of which maybe complete b*ll*cks
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 18 December, 2015, 05:10:36 pm
Pretty close to my opinions.

Once Steve's deficit gets big enough that he needs to exceed 220 daily miles for the rest of the attempt, the attempt is toast. He's damn close to that now.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 18 December, 2015, 05:22:15 pm
Another interesting aspect of the final phase of Kurt's ride is the way that those who like to associate themselves with success have aligned themselves with him. I think of those who were denouncing him as 'UMCA's Golden Boy' earlier in the year, and were calling for his disqualification. Now they're toasting him with fine malt whisky.
I can see why Kurt and Alicia like to drop in for a laugh.

Dunno about that, however the other bit of your post I agree with. The partisan posts/thread set up having a pop at Kurt when he first set out I deemed as an embarrassment on behalf of Steve and his team, YACF and the UK long distance cycling fraternity.

edit:^ and anyone that has or had an interest in the HAMR.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 18 December, 2015, 05:48:40 pm
ESL, I'm raising a glass of "Suffolk Springer" in your general direction at the moment. Only a Southern Softie beer from Bury St. Edmunds, I'm afraid, but it is perfectly acceptable. Not had it before.

@LMT: at the start of the ride all one had to judge Kurt on was what looked very like a "Let's see what the other guy does and then go one better, 10 days behind". With 11 months of experience, and with Steve having had all the bad luck that he has, that is clearly not the case now, if it ever was, and has not been since April. Is it allowed to change one's opinion in the light of experience?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 18 December, 2015, 06:32:09 pm


Once Steve's deficit gets big enough that he needs to exceed 220 daily miles for the rest of the attempt, the attempt is toast. He's damn close to that now.
[/quote]





PLUS ONE.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 18 December, 2015, 06:35:31 pm
I think that it is fair to say that the knockers on both sides have NOT been part of either Kurt's or Steve's respective teams but simply kibitzers, or whatever the terminology is in cycling!

And, I wish those bloody persistent knockers of Steve's gargantuan efforts would bugger off and crawl under a stone too.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 18 December, 2015, 06:40:40 pm
Pretty close to my opinions.

Once Steve's deficit gets big enough that he needs to exceed 220 daily miles for the rest of the attempt, the attempt is toast. He's damn close to that now.

Re HAM'R, required mpd looks like  increasing to deal with Kurt's new total in early Jan...  I wonder what the projections for this mpd now would be?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 18 December, 2015, 06:48:53 pm
Pretty close to my opinions.

Once Steve's deficit gets big enough that he needs to exceed 220 daily miles for the rest of the attempt, the attempt is toast. He's damn close to that now.

Re HAM'R, required mpd looks like  increasing to deal with Kurt's new total in early Jan...  I wonder what the projections for this mpd now would be?

If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 18 December, 2015, 06:53:12 pm
If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.

At the current rate it will be above 209.  In fact 210 isn't out of the question.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 18 December, 2015, 06:56:31 pm
If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.

At the current rate it will be above 209

Er, at the current rate the new target will be the current rate - 208.5.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 18 December, 2015, 06:59:17 pm
If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.

At the current rate it will be above 209

Er, at the current rate the new target will be the current rate - 208.5.

By the current rate i meant the rate over the last few weeks, which I think is a better indicator than the whole-year average (as I think you probably knew  :P).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 18 December, 2015, 07:07:39 pm
If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.

At the current rate it will be above 209

Er, at the current rate the new target will be the current rate - 208.5.

By the current rate i meant the rate over the last few weeks, which I think is a better indicator than the whole-year average (as I think you probably knew  :P).

Seems to me if you are trying to predict a 52 week average, a better guide would be what's happened in the preceding 49 weeks, rather than just the preceding few.

Having said that, there is no doubt Kurt has put on a bit of a spurt recently and I would back him to be able to maintain it.

Whatever, I suspect we are agreed the arithmetic is a big part of the endless fascination of the attempt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 18 December, 2015, 07:09:38 pm
At the current rate it will be above 209.  In fact 210 isn't out of the question.

Steve's target to beat Tommy is already 211.4.  To beat Kurt at an estimated 76,000 it is 215.7.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 18 December, 2015, 07:31:30 pm
In my view, due to the weather, terrain, and choice of approach Steve has suffered immensely - arguably more than Kurt. The mental and physical strength that he has demonstrated is without equal in my view. I doubt if anyone in the UK would be able to equal this achievement, in the way that Steve has chosen to do it. In addition I have no doubt that many members of his team have worked extremely hard.

Heavy bike, heavy kit, crap food. Only the best of days (weather, traffic, road conditions) permit miles approaching what is needed. That’s been the case for months. Those who urge pressing onwards without change, what of his well-being?



Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mileater on 18 December, 2015, 08:43:18 pm
Sadly, it is not looking good for Steve. Adding in yesterday's 100.3 miles to jo's most recent total, Steve's average mileage as of yesterday, day 132, is 194.7 mpd. Assuming Kurt beats Godwin by 1000 miles, this means Steve would have to deliver 216.2 mpd for the next 233 days to beat Kurt. Even the *lesser* goal of beating Godwin by one mile on British soil is looking increasingly unlikely. That would require 211.9 mpd.

Where is his crew chief? Who is running this thing? Steve appears to have very little support. Maybe he does not want it. Or if he does, but there's no one to actually organize and lead volunteers. Regardless, it's a mistake. This can't be done audax-style. The crew chief is supposed to recruit, organize and lead support crew. I don't see any of this happening here. Meanwhile, lots of people appear to want to help. Sad.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 18 December, 2015, 08:50:24 pm
ESL, I'm raising a glass of "Suffolk Springer" in your general direction at the moment. Only a Southern Softie beer from Bury St. Edmunds, I'm afraid, but it is perfectly acceptable. Not had it before.

@LMT: at the start of the ride all one had to judge Kurt on was what looked very like a "Let's see what the other guy does and then go one better, 10 days behind". With 11 months of experience, and with Steve having had all the bad luck that he has, that is clearly not the case now, if it ever was, and has not been since April. Is it allowed to change one's opinion in the light of experience?

Wowbagger, I went to the University of Kent, and lived in Herne Bay on the other side of the estuary from you, and I drank Shepherd Neame, so I actually prefer Southern beer, especially as you get a full measure without all that froth.
I'd see myself as a participant observer in all this Audax and Time Trialling stuff. I realise that you can never be impartial when you're involved in a sub-culture. The early partiality was inevitable, and there were remarks about Kurt coming from a 'privileged' country.

The end game was always going to be different, and the niggling partiality might have continued if Steve hadn't had the accident. A key pivotal point for me was when Steve rode up to Hoppo's place early on, and put in a big day, presumably paced by Chris, that led to a run of short days. I interviewed Hoppo around that time, as he was shepherding his fiancée around a 200, when she had PBP aspirations. He was also doing early-season training for Ultra Marathons in the US. He said at that point that Steve would be doing some very big mileage days in the Summer.

The consensus on here was that this wasn't a race, and it didn't matter if Kurt got ahead. That feeling got entrenched post-accident, and then the de-coupling of the two efforts after the restart took the direct competition out of the equation.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Charlie Boy on 18 December, 2015, 10:10:58 pm
Let's not forget that Steve has from April to August next year, peak months for audaxers and riders of his experience, to claw miles back. Yes, he's had some shit luck but he's also got the pedigree to pull it back.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andrew531 on 18 December, 2015, 10:19:58 pm
Hope so.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 18 December, 2015, 11:17:18 pm
I think that it is fair to say that the knockers on both sides have NOT been part of either Kurt's or Steve's respective teams but simply kibitzers, or whatever the terminology is in cycling!

And, I wish those bloody persistent knockers of Steve's gargantuan efforts would bugger off and crawl under a stone too.

+1
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 18 December, 2015, 11:41:58 pm
I think that it is fair to say that the knockers on both sides have NOT been part of either Kurt's or Steve's respective teams but simply kibitzers, or whatever the terminology is in cycling!

+1

Absolutely NOT true -- i was the money man -- i attended the start on 1st Jan --and for example  I put significant effort into Steves PBP .. organising ferries, hotels , support vehicle and team , collecting steves bike from MK , getting it across and thru registration without Steve being present. . I have refrained from being negative until now as I thought that it might disadvantage Steve -- and my very few posts have been factual and very carefully considered, and I remain very unhappy at the way donors have been treated

Coming back to the reality of the challenge for the 8+ months that i was part of the team -- there was never any team debate on the ways to maximise Steves chances of beating the record.

I have huge respect for Steve and his achievement  and the miles that he does crank out .. - BUT .. his approach at the moment  is not going to maximise his mileage . This is a far far bigger challenge than any of us understood at the beginning - steves personal prediction of what was his maximum is sadly wrong -- it is just not possible in the UK for him to do the miles using the present approach. Change the method -- and maybe he could do it .

I would be absolutely delighted if using the present approach he could do it -- i remain gob smacked at the determination to ride one legged round the Mk bowl  -- but the reality is this is a very amateur effort at cracking the record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 18 December, 2015, 11:53:08 pm
Interesting.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Peter on 19 December, 2015, 12:46:06 am
I hope I'm completely wrong, and I know Steve occasionally gives upbeat reports but am I the only one that worries about whether or not he might be riding himself to a breakdown, desperate not to disappoint himself or his supporters?  I would hate to think that the persistent GO STEVES make him feel he just can't listen to his body, if that's what he really should be doing.  I, for one, would think no less of Steve if he stopped now.

Jeremiah
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 19 December, 2015, 12:57:42 am
Arising out of Fidgetbuzz's post, I agree that what Steve has achieved has been absolutely amazing. What is more, he has done what? Over 60000 miles after suffering a broken ankle and a month (or more) in the way of debilitating stomach trouble? Tomsk and I had a conversation about Steve's chances of success about a fortnight into 2015 and we agreed that the only thing that would stop Steve would be injury. I suppose you can call illness a subset of injury, especially if it is induced by what he has been doing.

I think we have seen precious little of him riding at his best throughout the year. We have seen huge courage and determination - more than I think I have ever seen in any other sportsman - but we haven't seen him putting in the miles that he believes he is capable of. However, I think we have seen enough to realise that he hasn't put together sequences which, given where he is now, will overtake Tommy by August, nor whatever Kurt achieves by the end of his year.

I would be fully supportive of Steve taking a break, recovering from his illness and any lingering injuries he still has, having a rest and if he were so minded have another go with whatever approach he thinks appropriate. What I would hate would be for Steve to carry on for so long with what becomes an increasingly futile attempt that people take him less seriously next time round, should he make another attempt.

Edit: cross-post with Peter. Steve is a lovely chap and a marvellous cyclist, but I worry that he might be doing himself unnecessary damage.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 19 December, 2015, 07:28:58 am
Thanks, Fidgetbuzz, for explaining a bit more of the situation.  My views are also very similar to yours and those of other subsequent posters.

I think that Steve is on the verge of a great achievement, riding himself into fourth or fifth place on the all-time list, despite having had lots of time off with a broken ankle.  Over the last few days, I've firmly come round to the view that he would be best advised to leave it at that for now, stop riding on 31 Dec, and get back to normality.  At that point, he could also start the proper planning needed for a future attempt - if he still wants to have another go and, indeed, if he still wants to do any more cycling in the forseeable future after this year.

I am also concerned that Steve, with no outside counsel, could otherwise ride himself into a state of poor physical and mental health, to his long-term detriment.  From the outset, I felt that the end of the attempt - be it successful or not - would potentially be a difficult time for Steve (and raised that with FB as something we should all have in mind a year ago when he was working on setting it all up).  I also believe that those of us who have encouraged and supported him - financially (I speak as a sponsor) and by otherwise encouraging him to do this - owe him a duty of care by encouraging him to stop when it seems the wise course of action. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jamesld8 on 19 December, 2015, 08:02:11 am
Very wise and well thought out words Frank. Just seeing how progress for Steve has decreased over last few days, post on Strava about going into a deep sleep instead of an afternoon nap, very sadly suggests that he is very near his physical and mental limits.
I wish Steve all the very best on whatever he needs to do now, and just hope that he doesn't` completely grind himself down.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: JohnR on 19 December, 2015, 08:07:21 am
I hope I'm completely wrong, and I know Steve occasionally gives upbeat reports but am I the only one that worries about whether or not he might be riding himself to a breakdown, desperate not to disappoint himself or his supporters?  I would hate to think that the persistent GO STEVES make him feel he just can't listen to his body, if that's what he really should be doing.  I, for one, would think no less of Steve if he stopped now.

Jeremiah

I've been thinking this for some time. Each picture of Steve I see I think he looks exhausted due to sleep deprivation. I fear for his health. The body cannot continue in this way indefinitely without kicking back. I agree with peter, he should stop now and recuperate over Christmas and re-think his strategy before re-starting the challenge. Either way I wish him well.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 19 December, 2015, 09:30:41 am
Back in July I posted this:

Let's hope the weight of expectation (his own as well as others) isn't pushing Steve to attempt more than he is able to handle, mentally and physically.  I hope there someone in the team that Steve trusts that would be able to call a halt if (heaven forbid) things start looking risky?

It has been pretty clear that Steve has been on the limit for the whole year (minus the accident recovery period). He must be mentally and physically frazzled. Who is now making the decisions about what is possible, sensible and indeed safe?

It's clear that one of Alicia's most important roles has been to look after Kurt's well-being, and says one of the hardest things has been making sure he is keeping healthy both in body and mind.  Left to his own devices things may have turned out very differently. Decisions about strategy are discussed on a daily basis and he trusts her opinion enough to pretty much follow her advice.  I'm worried that Steve doesn't have anyone fulfilling that role.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Peter on 19 December, 2015, 09:37:18 am
toontra, I hadn't seen that (I don't check this daily).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 19 December, 2015, 10:15:17 am
It would be great if Steve can maintain recovery enough to complete a 100 000 km cycled in a year - currently he's on 99 090 km (Strava)... 13 days to go.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 19 December, 2015, 10:22:14 am
Toontra, that's a very good point. In all the enthusiasm to urge Steve on, only Steve (it would seem) is in a position to say 'enough'. I hope he feels able to do so.

PB, and Jaded, I don't read any of this as knocking Steve. It's more a recognition that the record is slipping away from him and a concern that the reasons for that may be more than just bad luck. FB has described his misgivings about the attitude to benefactors, and the secrecy, and these factors suggest that a different, more open, approach might have garnered more, and more useful, support. However, at the end of the day it's Steve's choice how the attempt is made and run. I hope he's in sufficiently good shape to make sure it ends safely, whether or not it ends successfully.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 19 December, 2015, 10:31:21 am
Hi Tim, I think you are probably right, many comments are not knocking Steve, but are showing concern. The trouble is that the comments (generally) are affected by the knockers though, sadly.

Whether he gets a nominal record or not, he is doing something that no one has ever done before, ride this huge distance in the current UK. If it was an easy, armchair considered activity then why are the other contenders all in different countries?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 19 December, 2015, 10:41:26 am
What he has achieved already is abso-bloody-lutely amazing and, even if he stopped today, it would stand as a testament to determination, guts and bloody-mindedness that would be very, very difficult to surpass. It would be great if he could make 100,000 km in the year, as Andy mentions above, but his health is the most important thing. I know he's been to see the doc from time to time, therefore he's not ignoring his health - so we have to trust that he's ok. I wish we had an insider's confirmation of that.

But, I agree with your main point - to achieve this record in modern UK is probably a lot more challenging than anyone - including Steve - thought. Doing it anywhere is mind-boggling, but the combination of weather (and it really hasn't been that bad by UK standards) and road conditions adds an extra degree of difficulty. I remain gobsmacked as to how much Steve has achieved.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 19 December, 2015, 11:08:18 am
Do any of you think that all this negative talk doesn't have a negative effect on Steve?   How is it helping him at all?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 19 December, 2015, 11:18:53 am
I think that it is fair to say that the knockers on both sides have NOT been part of either Kurt's or Steve's respective teams but simply kibitzers, or whatever the terminology is in cycling!

And, I wish those bloody persistent knockers of Steve's gargantuan efforts would bugger off and crawl under a stone too.

+1
+1

Armchair experts, for the most part. I suspect many realise their physical/mental attributes look pretty pathetic compared to Steve's; so to massage their ego they resort to criticising his tactics.

[although FidgetBuzz should be recognised as the one honourable exception.
plus there are 1-or-two on here who also know enough to make informed criticisms; they know who they are, I hope. ]
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Freya on 19 December, 2015, 11:23:17 am
Is the purpose of the thread to help Steve or to have a discussion? He doesn't have to read it. In fact, if I was him would avoid any thread with a title like this at a time when the challenge has become a struggle. (Unless I decided I needed advice on how to change things.) TBH if you are talking about helping him I'm not sure how repeating 'Steve knows best' is of much assistance when things haven't gone as planned.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 19 December, 2015, 11:26:23 am
I remain far from convinced that anyone, with the (possible) exception of Steve and Kurt, realised just how hard breaking this record was going to be.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 19 December, 2015, 11:28:03 am
Ah, the Free Speech argument!

As long you're happy Freya ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 19 December, 2015, 11:30:15 am
Do any of you think that all this negative talk doesn't have a negative effect on Steve?   How is it helping him at all?

Firstly, like you, Steve has the choice of whether to read this or not. Secondly, if you expect a venture like this to pass without commentary from the full range of opinions and expertise, you're dreaming. Like all great (and not so great) challenges, it will prompt praise, conversation, speculation and criticism. If Steve didn't have a thick skin before 2015, he has probably developed one by now!

In any case, as I've already said, I don't think any of the above can be construed as malicious criticism. Yes, we're pretty much all armchair experts - as we are with football, Formula 1, the application of the law, politicians, drug-taking in sport, who is or isn't a twat, what motorists should do, and just about any other topic that appears on YACF. It's a board for idle conversation and gossip, much of it uninformed or just plain wrong. This thread, rather unusually, is almost unanimous in its support for and admiration of its subject - the HAM'R challenge and those who've taken it on. That there's discussion about its outcome and its conduct is natural.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Lady Cavendish on 19 December, 2015, 11:33:04 am
I've kept very quiet in this whole thing, and won't comment on strategies/diets/etc etc. What Steve has chosen to do is his decision, whether I have felt things are right or wrong, that's not my call.

PB, yes, Steve probably does read all this, and it may have a negative effect. But would it be better for everyone to just say Go Steve, Go Steve every day, even though things may not be all well. I don't want Steve to feel any external pressure to continue with this at the expense of his own long term health.

If Steve feels he needs a few lesser miles days and he can catch it up, then that's all well and good. But if he isn't well, and it's not improving, running himself to breaking point or worse just quite frankly isn't worth it. Whether he wants another attempt in a year or so using what he has learnt, or enough is enough, then I'm sure people will be with him either way and would fund it again.

But I like Steve a lot, I count him as a friend, and I would hate to see him do some permanent or serious damage. There IS more to life than the record, we know Steve is a phenomenal long distance rider, he has had some bad luck for sure. When you are so tired, so broken, and so focused, it can be very hard to look rationally at things, and beyond the one thing you desperately want to achieve.

Personally, I would much rather see Steve stop now, or at least at the end of the month, recover, sort the diet stuff out, use what he has learnt and maybe try again in a year or so- from where I'm sitting it looks like it's slipped away, but he may not feel like that, and have some sort of plan, but of course it has all been so secretive- which I've never understood. I want to go and look after him, give him a cuddle and mother him for a while!!! But it's nothing to do with me, not my decision. I think a lot of people are also just showing concern, not knocking Steve. I would do anything to help him.

If he feels ok in himself, then fine, ride away. I just hope he is not beyond exhausted that he can't make rational decisions, and hope he is getting advice from somewhere.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 19 December, 2015, 11:41:21 am
Ah, the Free Speech argument!

As long you're happy Freya ...

Ah, so the only posts about Steve to be allowed are ones that you approve of.

Get real - it's a public attempt and cannot be immune to comment and criticism.

You don't need to be a long distance cycling expert to see the second attempt is in big trouble and almost bound to fail.

Obvious next question is what to do about that.

Steve has never shown himself capable of riding 210+mile days consecutively for months on end.

Thus a big rethink is needed.

Stopping at the end of this year and aiming for a restart in Jan 2017 would give some time to devise and test a strategy.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 19 December, 2015, 12:27:57 pm
I have managed PBP, LEL, LEJoG at about 200 miles a day. I was knackered at the end and time some some time off to gather my strength. I did LEJoG again this year at about 120 miles a day and thought I could have gone on for another ride and could have ridden home at the end. We all have our limits and Steve looks like he has found his. I hope it is just a blip and he is back on his game and we all feel relieved.

In other posts I have mentioned diet and any new attempt should take a long look at this. One thing we forget is that in the 1930s food had a lot more goodness. Intensive farming has kept the calories the same, but has reduced the minerals, vitamins and trace elements. Processed food has the lowest concentration of goodness. This will not be easy to sort out and although Kurt has done a few well publicised junk food eating sessions I always thought there was some proper food being prepared every night.

I hope I feel foolish for writing this and Steve powers on to set the record, but long term issues appear to have set in.

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 19 December, 2015, 01:05:48 pm
Last three posts are excellent.  Lady Cavendish please do post more as yours was well worth the read and full of very sound sense.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 19 December, 2015, 01:14:28 pm
Ah, the Free Speech argument!

As long you're happy Freya ...

Ah, so the only posts about Steve to be allowed are ones that you approve of.
Nope, I didnt say that.

( I cant currently be arsed with a debate about free speech here - see elsewhere, you'll find that it's been examined quite extensively! )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 19 December, 2015, 01:18:10 pm
Steve's doing three things at once. The Tommy Godwin Record attempt, the One Year Time Trial and the HAMR.

The Godwin record was originally within the context of the Cycling magazine mile-eater award. Steve's got that sewn up within the UK.

The One Year Time trial should be just that in my opinion. I've seen Steve do the 24 many times. He's kept coming back, because it's just something you do if you're that kind of cyclist. Winning doesn't come into it, it's a way of testing what you are capable of on an annual basis.

The HAMR is something you can start any time, in any place, and seems to inhabit planet Strava.

Comments on here are about the Tommy Godwin Record Attempt, which was the original driver of what Steve is doing. The One Year Time Trial crew don't comment here, that's something that inhabits planet Facebook. It's all become a bit tangled, with three sets of 'stakeholders', but there's just one Steve.

Plenty of high-profile cyclists start record attempts, and pack when they're not on track. That Bruce Berkeley has had a go at the LEJOGLE record twice, and pulled out with a knee problem both times. That's seen as a 'soft' record, as it's not RRA sanctioned. There seem to be attempts on various LEJOG records every year. http://road.cc/content/news/160466-bike-mechanic-attempt-record-cycling-land-s-end-john-o-groats-and-back-again

The 'One Year Time Trial' is the easiest story to comprehend, Steve's a couple of weeks away from completing that. Whether he carries on with the HAMR restart is up to him.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 19 December, 2015, 01:22:42 pm
In other posts I have mentioned diet and any new attempt should take a long look at this. One thing we forget is that in the 1930s food had a lot more goodness. Intensive farming has kept the calories the same, but has reduced the minerals, vitamins and trace elements. Processed food has the lowest concentration of goodness. This will not be easy to sort out and although Kurt has done a few well publicised junk food eating sessions I always thought there was some proper food being prepared every night.
Think you're right.

Of course we know Steve/team have looked at his diet recently and made BIG changes. Which hopefully will pay off in the long term.

I'm certain Kurt is eating a lot of good stuff, and just posts about the Krispy Kremes (or whatever!) for a bit of light relief. IIRC they posted a piccie quite recently showing loads of modern "healthy" sports drinks/supplements/snacks?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 19 December, 2015, 01:22:48 pm
( I cant currently be arsed with a debate about free speech here - see elsewhere, you'll find that it's been examined quite extensively! )

Your posts over the past year have consistently represented the worst aspects of any forum discussion - defensive, patronising and aggressive in equal measure.  You profess to support Steve - you don't have a monopoly in that position, and your attitude is doing Steve absolutely no favours.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 19 December, 2015, 01:28:37 pm
( I cant currently be arsed with a debate about free speech here - see elsewhere, you'll find that it's been examined quite extensively! )

Your posts over the past year have consistently represented the worst aspects of any forum discussion - defensive, patronising and aggressive in equal measure.  You profess to support Steve - you don't have a monopoly in that position, and your attitude is doing Steve absolutely no favours.
Thanks for that!

Luckily I know my relationship with Steve quite well. Of course input from random strangers on the internet is always welcome - nothing is beyond comment in this day and age  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Foghat on 19 December, 2015, 02:01:52 pm
You profess to support Steve - you don't have a monopoly in that position, and your attitude is doing Steve absolutely no favours.

Quite.

The head-in-the-sand foolishness and all the naive "in Steve we trust", "don't question the strategy", "Steve knows what he's doing" nonsense is doing his record attempt a far greater dis-service than all the constructive criticism that is actually getting posted here (from people who all clearly want the best outcome for Steve). 

It's been obvious for months that the strategy is seriously flawed as a record-breaking strategy (which is the stated aim), rather than as a 'let's see how many miles can be done fighting headwinds for hours each day on a heavy touring bike' strategy.  The deniers would have done well to put their effort into convincing Steve that his strategy was just going to achieve the latter, rather than encourage him into wasting all that effort instead of re-thinking.

Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 19 December, 2015, 02:24:14 pm
I struggle to understand why there has not been an attempt to try something different?  Be it motor transfers, pacing in a group, going abroad, riding a short, fast loop, changing the bike ect ect.   You have to assume the will or intent to change is just not there

With that in mind, at the moment this is looking more like self harm than a serious record attempt - and I find that sad because I think Steve could break the record with better strategy.   

His ability to get up everyday regardless of conditions to sit and peddle a bike for hours is unparalleled.... his ability to cover ground, quickly and easily enough to sustain the record attempt is however in question.   Some fast, flat miles drafting some other riders seems to me the only way to pull himself out of this.   

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 19 December, 2015, 02:58:43 pm
Foghat has it right.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 19 December, 2015, 03:00:29 pm
Do any of you think that all this negative talk doesn't have a negative effect on Steve?   How is it helping him at all?

it's constructive criticism. Sometimes the rider does not know best.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 19 December, 2015, 04:13:45 pm
I would like to think Steve will realise that many of the post over the past couple of days basically reflect that most of us care for his happiness and wellbeing, as well as whether or not he achieves the record.  Most of us can empathise with his efforts, even if we can't fully understand what he is going through.

I could also see why he has apparently ruled out many of suggestions made in recent weeks, in the context of his preferred modus operandi.  Just because a suggestion is made, it doesn't make it a sensible one to follow.  And in that spirit, I'll suggest he sticks to the usual audax trick of focusing on the short term when things aren't going to plan, in the expectation that things will get better.  Which they will, surely.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 19 December, 2015, 04:44:00 pm
Do any of you think that all this negative talk doesn't have a negative effect on Steve?   How is it helping him at all?

it's constructive criticism. Sometimes the rider does not know best.
I would say there is a wide variety of criticism on this thread. Some of it is constructive. Some of it is stuff like this:
Quote
Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....

To me - speaking as a friend of Steve - I just find this snide and nasty.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 19 December, 2015, 05:33:55 pm
Do any of you think that all this negative talk doesn't have a negative effect on Steve?   How is it helping him at all?

it's constructive criticism. Sometimes the rider does not know best.

And neither do the vocal critics and self-appointed experts.   How is Steve supposed to adopt hundreds of differing and disjointed views.   Coaching and managment is about cohesion, strategy and planning, not disparate and random musings.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Peter on 19 December, 2015, 05:46:40 pm
Mike, this isn't a coaching manual, it's a conversation.  There's no-one on here who doesn't wish Steve well, or think that he is more important than a record.

Peter
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 19 December, 2015, 05:48:15 pm
Mike, this isn't a coaching manual, it's a conversation.  There's no-one on here who doesn't wish Steve well, or think that he is more important than a record.

Peter

Peter, there are one or two posting on here for whom Steve appears to matter little.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Peter on 19 December, 2015, 05:56:26 pm
J, I haven't read them all, so I've probably missed them, sorry.  What I find impossible to do is to equate concern for Steve's wellbeing with being negative.  I certainly have absolutely no qualifications to suggest how Steve should approach record-breaking.  But I care about him.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 19 December, 2015, 10:27:52 pm
Steve carries on not cos it's good strategy but cos he's an audaxer, it's just what he does - like scorpion and frog.
If he is calling it a day he might as well at least see the year out, there's only ten or so days left now, even if the chances of breaking the record are minimal.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 19 December, 2015, 10:31:30 pm

Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....
get the impression seeing how far an audax style strategy could go towards breaking the record is an important part, possibly more important than actually becoming the record holder.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 19 December, 2015, 10:33:38 pm
Steve carries on not cos it's good strategy but cos he's an audaxer, it's just what he does - like scorpion and frog.
If he is calling it a day he might as well at least see the year out, there's only ten or so days left now, even if the chances of breaking the record are minimal.

Agreed, hopefully he'll break through the 100k barrier.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 19 December, 2015, 10:40:43 pm

Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....
get the impression seeing how far an audax style strategy could go towards breaking the record is an important part, possibly more important than actually becoming the record holder.

Although to be fair Kurt would probably have been able to do even more miles if he'd simply ridden a velodrome for 15 hours a day, so in effect even he has sacrificed miles added onto the record for the trade off of doing the type of cycling he wants, just - crucially - not quite as much as Steve.
It's quite possible that Kurt's record will stand until someone  ruins themselves on hallucinogenics and literally does do a velodrome.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 19 December, 2015, 11:52:47 pm
You don't need hallucinogenics to drive yourself bonkers riding a velodrome - twenty-four hours straight will see you most of the way there.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 20 December, 2015, 07:38:52 am
Mike, this isn't a coaching manual, it's a conversation.  There's no-one on here who doesn't wish Steve well, or think that he is more important than a record.

Peter

Peter, there are one or two posting on here for whom Steve appears to matter little.

Peter,
One of your many flaws is that you inisist in seeing good in people.  ;)

After spending time on the internet, it becomes clear that there are many reasons for giving advice; concern for the recipient is not always a feature.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 20 December, 2015, 08:02:07 am
Mike, this isn't a coaching manual, it's a conversation.  There's no-one on here who doesn't wish Steve well, or think that he is more important than a record.

Peter

Peter, there are one or two posting on here for whom Steve appears to matter little.

Peter,
One of your many flaws is that you inisist in seeing good in people.  ;)

After spending time on the internet, it becomes clear that there are many reasons for giving advice; concern for the recipient is not always a feature.


So how do you think Steves second attempt is gong?  What do you think he should do differently , if anything?

I've seen the very worst of Internet forums ... And this thread is a Godwin away from that!   Apart from maybe one post I don't think there is anything over the top in here and for the most part it is respectful, constructive and comes with an overwhelming emphasis on Steves well being and success
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 20 December, 2015, 09:20:40 am
You don't need hallucinogenics to drive yourself bonkers riding a velodrome - twenty-four hours straight will see you most of the way there.

My point exactly - you'd only even consider deliberately driving yourself bonkers if you were *already* bonkers through (possibly semi accidental) means.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 20 December, 2015, 09:30:53 am
You don't need hallucinogenics to drive yourself bonkers riding a velodrome - twenty-four hours straight will see you most of the way there.

My point exactly - you'd only even consider deliberately driving yourself bonkers if you were *already* bonkers through (possibly semi accidental) means.

Im not sure why a fast, repetitive day, week or month of cycling is being seen as such a hard thing for a rider to cope with during this attempt.

There must be enough tough miles, out on the road by yourself to welcome the easy repetitive miles.

I would argue that a few weeks of fast, easy, no traffic miles would be a massive mental boost to any rider in an attempt like this.    From Kurts videos it appeared his attempt was on a knife-edge before Alicia convinced him to go onto the closed circuit and arranged riders to give him a tow.   I would love to see whoever is running Steves attempt try to arrange similar conditions for Steve over Christmas - it might just get the attempt back on track - at the very least it would give him maximum miles before the year end without putting him out in the wild on his own again.


Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 20 December, 2015, 09:41:40 am
Kurt's Flatwood loop is around 8 miles long. A velodrome loop is about 0.2 miles long. I don't think you can extrapolate Kurt's recent experience at Flatwood to suggest anyone could mange repeated 200 mile+ velodrome days without going completely bonkers.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 20 December, 2015, 09:55:00 am
Kurt's Flatwood loop is around 8 miles long. A velodrome loop is about 0.2 miles long. I don't think you can extrapolate Kurt's recent experience at Flatwood to suggest anyone could mange repeated 200 mile+ velodrome days without going completely bonkers.

Just to be clear I am not suggesting he rides around a velodrome .... I am suggesting Steves team or the community locate him a suitable loop close to home, or close to the home of someone who could be a host for him.   Get some riders he trusts or just local riders to ride for him and lets see him get some 'Godwins plus a bit' knocked off at 18-20mph on a faster bike, without the touring gear....without taking as much out of himself.   Maybe get some local clubs on board - with people who are used to riding fast and safely in a group.

Most of us have a local 10 mile loop that we know is fast and flat - there must be enough knowledge on here to provide a suitable location to mirror Kurts fastest month.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 20 December, 2015, 09:57:53 am

Im not sure why a fast, repetitive day, week or month of cycling is being seen as such a hard thing for a rider to cope with during this attempt.

There must be enough tough miles, out on the road by yourself to welcome the easy repetitive miles.

I would argue that a few weeks of fast, easy, no traffic miles would be a massive mental boost to any rider in an attempt like this.   
Yes but surely the best* way to beat / improve the record would be to have a strategy that doesn't include ANY tough miles.

*For values of "best" that are solely bothered about number of miles.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 20 December, 2015, 10:00:28 am
Kurt's Flatwood loop is around 8 miles long. A velodrome loop is about 0.2 miles long. I don't think you can extrapolate Kurt's recent experience at Flatwood to suggest anyone could mange repeated 200 mile+ velodrome days without going completely bonkers.

...thus highlighting the point that this is a sport where the world championship final is effectively a condition game.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 20 December, 2015, 11:08:50 am
It might be worth noting that Steve's bikes aren't exactly stock, with faster and lighter wheels and aerobars that put him in quite an aero position. I'm not sure that a lighter bike is a huge advantage on flat ground and an a aero frame is only marginally useful at speeds below 19 miles/ hour. Using a fast loop and drafting strong riders would make a noticeable difference though.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: yanto on 20 December, 2015, 11:57:59 am
Being a biased velomobile rider I would suggest using a good aerodynamic model, especially on a lot of roads Steve rides.

An example being that a typical long distance cruising speed of 23-25 mph on the flat only requires about 120 watts, a 20 mph head wind will only knock about 2 mph off that cruising speed. Plus lots of food/drink can be carried easily reducing the need for repeated stops. A real time overall average speed including stops of 20-21 mph is easily achievable.

This means that 10-12 hrs out on the road would give sufficient mileage and rest time,
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 20 December, 2015, 12:01:03 pm
And it would keep the worst of the winter weather out, so you wouldn't get so cold, and therefore so knackered. I wouldn't fancy it in summer though.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: clarion on 20 December, 2015, 12:05:02 pm
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 20 December, 2015, 01:06:21 pm
Unnecessary waffle as Steve is most unlikely to switch from a proper bike!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 20 December, 2015, 01:30:48 pm
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?

nope.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: offcumden on 20 December, 2015, 01:55:25 pm
Meanwhile, Steve is riding a favourable wind to good effect; 80+ miles in just over 4hrs.

I assume he must be feeling better - let's hope so.  Recent problems must have been hellish for him.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: notlobgp14 on 20 December, 2015, 02:06:11 pm
I am fairly sure the information will be classified, you ex MOD people will know what I mean, but; is this the day for Steve's first lift back home by car / van / motorhome?

Wind assisted up recuperation whilst coming back. 😊
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 20 December, 2015, 03:23:17 pm
I think it will be his first lift all year  (on the challenge ) I know that he isn't a happy passenger always on other occasions preferring to ride on his bike than partake of a lift.  However I am sure this approach must be for the better.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 20 December, 2015, 03:30:36 pm
Has there been some communication to suggest there will be a motor transfer?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 20 December, 2015, 03:31:26 pm
I've seen the very worst of Internet forums ... And this thread is a Godwin away from that!   Apart from maybe one post I don't think there is anything over the top in here and for the most part it is respectful, constructive and comes with an overwhelming emphasis on Steves well being and success
Of course there are respectful constructive posts  - hoorah for that. :)

However, I reserve the right to defend a friend when dicks make twattish comments. Be it here, twitter or down my local.

Clearly we will never agree on what EXACTY is offensive, or what is respectful - so it's probably fruitless to discuss. But I know it when I see it, and will say so.

(p.s. nice "Godwin" wordplay - if it was deliberate!  :thumbsup: )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 20 December, 2015, 03:48:31 pm
The time-trial has always been characterised as the race of truth, and we get daily updates on that. The gap between that truth, and the expectations in going for a record, are going to be filled with something. As that gap narrows for Kurt, there's less to be said. The opposite's been true of Steve for a number of weeks.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 20 December, 2015, 04:26:21 pm
Meanwhile, Steve is riding a favourable wind to good effect; 80+ miles in just over 4hrs.

However it's now 90+ miles in 6 1/2 hrs (I assume there must have been a lunch stop) and he's rapidly running out of land to visit with the following wind.  I can only marvel at the mental fortitude and physical committment it takes to get up every day and do what Steve has been doing 7/7, but I fear he's just not fast enough consistently enough at present. I hope to be proven wrong, and Steve has my best wishes, as always. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: yanto on 20 December, 2015, 06:03:35 pm
Unnecessary waffle as Steve is most unlikely to switch from a proper bike!

  My humble apologies  ::-)!

And as for "proper bike" all i see is somebody stuck in the 1920's and suffering for it!  I wasn't suggesting he changed, i was making an anecdotal comparison, you may think it's "unnecessary waffle" I thought it might be an interesting comparison, but I bow to your obviously pompous dinosaur like superiority in policing this thread to keep it "proper"  you :smug: b'stard.



Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 20 December, 2015, 06:13:54 pm
There must be a highest annual mileage in a velomobile, I wonder what it is?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: yanto on 20 December, 2015, 06:30:54 pm
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?

nope.

Yes.  From the UMCA rules:

"SOLOS:
Gender: Male & Female
Age Groups: 18-49, 50-59, 60-69 and Over 70
Bicycle Type: Standard, Recumbent and HPV"

A velomobile is an HPV (Human Powered Vehicle), it just can't be compared against a std or 'bent for Championship purposes.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 20 December, 2015, 07:33:02 pm
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?

nope.

Yes.  From the UMCA rules:

"SOLOS:
Gender: Male & Female
Age Groups: 18-49, 50-59, 60-69 and Over 70
Bicycle Type: Standard, Recumbent and HPV"

A velomobile is an HPV (Human Powered Vehicle), it just can't be compared against a std or 'bent for Championship purposes.

Rule 5...or otherwise I'd borrow a WAW, rent a place in Norfolk and put in over 100000 miles for the year easy.

The HPV you refer to would be something like a hand cycle or an eliptigo et al.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 20 December, 2015, 07:36:32 pm
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?

nope.

Yes.  From the UMCA rules:

"SOLOS:
Gender: Male & Female
Age Groups: 18-49, 50-59, 60-69 and Over 70
Bicycle Type: Standard, Recumbent and HPV"

A velomobile is an HPV (Human Powered Vehicle), it just can't be compared against a std or 'bent for Championship purposes.

But from the HAMR rules:

Quote from: UMCA

Rider may use any bike type, or combination of bike types, except for faired recumbents. There will not be separate record categories based on bike type. (This means standard frame bikes and recumbents will be on equal basis for this record.)


(My emphasis)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 20 December, 2015, 07:50:45 pm
For months I've been baffled as to why Tarzan doesnt use the recumbent for most of his mileage. He seemed to go OK in it early on, so surely there were enough miles in the year to get comfortably adapted.

There can't be any doubt that his choice of terrain/roads suit a down-wrong. Can there?  :-\
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 20 December, 2015, 07:59:47 pm
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?

nope.

Yes.  From the UMCA rules:

"SOLOS:
Gender: Male & Female
Age Groups: 18-49, 50-59, 60-69 and Over 70
Bicycle Type: Standard, Recumbent and HPV"

A velomobile is an HPV (Human Powered Vehicle), it just can't be compared against a std or 'bent for Championship purposes.

But from the HAMR rules:

Quote from: UMCA

Rider may use any bike type, or combination of bike types, except for faired recumbents. There will not be separate record categories based on bike type. (This means standard frame bikes and recumbents will be on equal basis for this record.)


(My emphasis)

Does this mean that LMT is going to ...

... borrow a WAW, rent a place in Norfolk and put in over 100000 miles for the year easy.
...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 20 December, 2015, 08:05:26 pm
Sorry PB, but I think a WAW is fully-faired - so we'll have to give LMT the b-of-the-d on that one :P

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 20 December, 2015, 08:11:23 pm
Sorry PB, but I think a WAW is fully-faired - so we'll have to give LMT the b-of-the-d on that one :P

(http://www.recumbent-gallery.eu/wp-content/uploads/velomobile-fietser-waw-12.jpg)

A WAW, yesterday.  Strictly forbidden.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 20 December, 2015, 08:12:35 pm
For months I've been baffled as to why Tarzan doesnt use the recumbent for most of his mileage. He seemed to go OK in it early on, so surely there were enough miles in the year to get comfortably adapted.

There can't be any doubt that his choice of terrain/roads suit a down-wrong. Can there?  :-\

What's a down-wrong?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 20 December, 2015, 08:15:16 pm
Opposite of an upright.

HTH
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 20 December, 2015, 08:16:43 pm
Very nice Mr L, I'm thinking around the 180w mark to get upto cruising speed of around 28mph. Fully faired and a trike means any weather, ice or not. My FTP is around the 330w mark so 180w would be a recovery ride. The biggest problem would be boredom when doing the miles but I'd rig some sort of music system to keep me going.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 20 December, 2015, 08:18:21 pm
Opposite of an upright.

HTH

Not really, what's an upright?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hellymedic on 20 December, 2015, 08:32:41 pm
A 'normal' bicycle.
Saddle above pedals and usually about level with handlebars.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 20 December, 2015, 08:33:29 pm
A 'normal' bicycle.
Saddle above pedals and usually about level with handlebars.

AKA a DF (diamond-framed) bicycle.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 20 December, 2015, 09:45:15 pm
A 'normal' bicycle.
Saddle above pedals and usually about level with handlebars.

AKA a DF (diamond-framed) bicycle.

AKA 'upwrong' or 'wedgie'
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 20 December, 2015, 10:16:47 pm
Steve carries on not cos it's good strategy but cos he's an audaxer, it's just what he does - like scorpion and frog.
If he is calling it a day he might as well at least see the year out, there's only ten or so days left now, even if the chances of breaking the record are minimal.

I can't see Steve stopping at any point before August myself
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 20 December, 2015, 11:44:25 pm
and why should he when all we have got is a rather sad bunch of people who would never consider doing it themselves saying "I wouldn't do it like that!"  ???
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 21 December, 2015, 12:15:58 am
You must think that Steves original approach was the ONLY possible way to do it -- which just has to be wrong ( and pretty stupid as an analysis too )  . Historically he would never have accepted a vehicle transfer -- but now realising that this could increase his mileage - he is very likely to do it.. personally I think this has been because people have been banging on about possible help and NOT because Steve of his own accord suddenly saw the wisdom of this idea. There are other suggestions being put forward ( not all of which might be valid as improvements ) .. but they should all be considered by the team -- and the sensible ones run past Steve to get his reaction. Nothing should be forced on him -- it has to be his decision -- but a closed mind will not get him the record.. just look at the riding record -- he has never strung together to a run of excellent days -- and in the summer was huge distances short of what he had originally said he could do.

Your rather nasty comment about  sad people -- would suggest that since there have been only 3 , 4 or 5 people ( IronOx  ?) attempting this challenge in the last 75 years -- that they are the only people who could possibly have any constructive ideas on how to tackle the challenge, and this is clearly barking mad.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 21 December, 2015, 12:28:55 am
Very nice Mr L, I'm thinking around the 180w mark to get upto cruising speed of around 28mph. Fully faired and a trike means any weather, ice or not. My FTP is around the 330w mark so 180w would be a recovery ride. The biggest problem would be boredom when doing the miles but I'd rig some sort of music system to keep me going.

My grate frend Mr Bird is currently building a racing f/f recumbent trike which he reckons will give him 26-27 mph at 130W, though it's not intended for all-day habitation like a pukka velomobile.  The Milan seems to be the current state of the art as far as record-breaking goes with a 12H record of >420 miles and over 750 miles in 24H.  Which is by the by coz it's against the HAMR rules anyway.  I'm sure if one asked the WHPVA and/or IHPVA nicely they'd sanction a record under similar rules of evidence as UMCA are doing for HAMR.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 21 December, 2015, 12:46:22 am
ICBA to go back and check on all the kibitzing that was going on a year and more ago, but I think we all naively assumed in the early days that there couldn't possibly be two people in the world so (nicely) bonkers as to want to break this record at the same time as each other. Steve's "purist" approach was very popular, even though we were all aware that technical developments could give Steve a significant advantage over Tommy Godwin.

I suspect that we are all rather sadder and wiser men/women than we were a year ago. Assuming Kurt breaks the record and it's the Searvogel record that needs to be dealt with, I think that Steve will have to take a different approach if he is to make another serious challenge. I would think a faster bike, and allowing himself a rather higher working heart rate, so that he can up his speed a bit, will be necessary.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 21 December, 2015, 12:48:12 am
You must think that Steves original approach was the ONLY possible way to do it -- which just has to be wrong ( and pretty stupid as an analysis too )  . Historically he would never have accepted a vehicle transfer -- but now realising that this could increase his mileage - he is very likely to do it.. personally I think this has been because people have been banging on about possible help and NOT because Steve of his own accord suddenly saw the wisdom of this idea. There are other suggestions being put forward ( not all of which might be valid as improvements ) .. but they should all be considered by the team -- and the sensible ones run past Steve to get his reaction. Nothing should be forced on him -- it has to be his decision -- but a closed mind will not get him the record.. just look at the riding record -- he has never strung together to a run of excellent days -- and in the summer was huge distances short of what he had originally said he could do.

Your rather nasty comment about  sad people -- would suggest that since there have been only 3 , 4 or 5 people ( IronOx  ?) attempting this challenge in the last 75 years -- that they are the only people who could possibly have any constructive ideas on how to tackle the challenge, and this is clearly barking mad.

You are defintely not one of the sad people.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 21 December, 2015, 09:14:29 am
You are defintely not one of the sad people.

Please, can we just drop this polarising talk of "good" and "bad" people. It's not only a bit nasty but it's distracting from the discussion. 

In 34 pages of posts I can only see a single one that could possibly be construed as having a dig at Steve (gleefully quoted by mattC).  It's pretty apparent that everyone here is not only captivated by the challenge but also wants the best for Steve.

No-one here has a monopoly on representing Steve's interests, and people shouldn't claim that role for themselves and shout down others that they claim "don't know him as well as I do".  It's simplistic to the point of childishness.  A North Korean fan club approach isn't really appropriate in a discussion forum.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 21 December, 2015, 09:30:37 am
Quietly without fanfare, yesterday, Steve passed René Menzies' 1937 record – with ten days yet to ride. Sometimes it's good to be reminded what Steve has achieved so far even when things don't go exactly as planned.

At the time the battle between Menzies and Nicholson received much attention.

(http://blog.brooksengland.com/wps/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Round-the-World.jpg)

Taking Ossie Nicholson's record before the end of the 2015 is also a realistic prospect for Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 21 December, 2015, 09:50:17 am
In addition to stepping up to one of the upper plinths on the pantheon of the 20th century records attempts, it's perhaps worth remembering that Steve will be recorded by HAM'R as the record holder at close of play 31 December, and will hold his age-group record for at least a year. 

Not bad for a humble bloke from Bedfordshire, who likes to ride his bike.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 21 December, 2015, 09:50:48 am
Sorry - I was a bit put out by the sad comment.

If we think about world class athletes -- and in terms of this record then Kurt and Steve are world class athletes -- they would not win a track event or a TT , or the TdF -- but at getting near the Year record they are world class. But all world class athletes in all sports have coaches and trainers to ensure maximum performance, peak fitness, improved  skills, etc etc.

Now  my experience tells me that Steves team were  led in a way that did not allow any views other than this "" Steve knows best ", which I just can not agree is correct. Add to that my unhappiness about the treatment of donors -- and you will see why after I had done my bit for PBP .. I chose to step away.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 21 December, 2015, 09:54:11 am
Quietly without fanfare, yesterday, Steve passed René Menzies' 1937 record – with ten days yet to ride. Sometimes it's good to be reminded what Steve has achieved so far even when things don't go exactly as planned.
Indeed!   :thumbsup:

And IMHO, Steve's figure has only been beaten by bona fide elite athletes; Tour de France riders, and a winner of multiple 12h and 24h races.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: notlobgp14 on 21 December, 2015, 10:02:48 am

I can't see Steve stopping at any point before August myself

Unless he looks after his health he may well be forced to.

I had been thinking of posting more thoughts but I've been 'Bullied' out of it.

signed; Sad and concerned
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wine Mechanic on 21 December, 2015, 10:05:33 am
Its very clear Steve is attempting to break the record his way, in his own and style and in a manner that he is personally comfortable with. I can understand that and admire him for his commitment to the cause. I am disappointed in the lack of news about the event, at best its the title of the Strava event for the day that gives a clue to how Steve is.  The web page has nothing on it  and apart from the odd snapshot on Facebook there is not much forthcoming apart from the odd snippet from Steve's inner circle of friends.

I now question if its worth continuing to donate to the cause, nothing to do with if the record is broken or not, just from the point of view of feeling that the support given is not valued. After all it can't be too much effort to put out a news letter once a week to help keep Steve's fan club on the edge our seats.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 21 December, 2015, 10:28:08 am
Those of us who support the Mersey 24 know where Steve stands within that particular arena. An interesting aspect were his performances relative to Joel Sothern, a US rider who came over in 2007 and 2008, He's Kurt's one-time RAAM two-man team partner. Form tended to suggest that Steve and Kurt weren't too far apart in potential, with Steve having the edge in 'toughness', Kurt in speed.

It's always been interesting to compare support styles of the top contenders at the 24. Steve's support system has been complex, especially at the start of the attempt, when it was an exercise in 'crowd-sourcing'. You could probably draw some sort of Venn diagram showing how the three main 'constituencies' interested in Steve's ride interacted over time. Those constituencies being his core team, YACF and Strava/Facebook. A similar diagram for Kurt would essentially be two concentric circles, Kurt and Alicia.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 21 December, 2015, 10:28:50 am


Your rather nasty comment about  sad people -- would suggest that since there have been only 3 , 4 or 5 people ( IronOx  ?) attempting this challenge in the last 75 years -- that they are the only people who could possibly have any constructive ideas on how to tackle the challenge, and this is clearly barking mad.

There are other people who take on the Year challenge. Unlike the HAMR participants they usually have full time jobs.

AUKs very own late Pat Kenny rode 30,000 miles and did his full time job as a civil engineer plus occasionally saw his wife and two daughters. There is a current AUK who regularly rides 20,000 miles plus around the day job. You won't probably heard of these people just to name a few as what they do is only found within 300,000 miles club.

So, there is a small group of cyclist who do know how to ride a year.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Auntie Helen on 21 December, 2015, 10:52:05 am
Very nice Mr L, I'm thinking around the 180w mark to get upto cruising speed of around 28mph. Fully faired and a trike means any weather, ice or not. My FTP is around the 330w mark so 180w would be a recovery ride. The biggest problem would be boredom when doing the miles but I'd rig some sort of music system to keep me going.

My grate frend Mr Bird is currently building a racing f/f recumbent trike which he reckons will give him 26-27 mph at 130W, though it's not intended for all-day habitation like a pukka velomobile.  The Milan seems to be the current state of the art as far as record-breaking goes with a 12H record of >420 miles and over 750 miles in 24H.  Which is by the by coz it's against the HAMR rules anyway.  I'm sure if one asked the WHPVA and/or IHPVA nicely they'd sanction a record under similar rules of evidence as UMCA are doing for HAMR.
the DF is considered to be quicker now. Daniel Fenn (the builder) rode from Berlin to Hamburg at an average of 51km/h a few months ago.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 21 December, 2015, 10:58:56 am
I have heard some Daniel Fenn stories, which seem to agree that he is a bit of a hooligan.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Lady Cavendish on 21 December, 2015, 11:12:51 am


Your rather nasty comment about  sad people -- would suggest that since there have been only 3 , 4 or 5 people ( IronOx  ?) attempting this challenge in the last 75 years -- that they are the only people who could possibly have any constructive ideas on how to tackle the challenge, and this is clearly barking mad.

There are other people who take on the Year challenge. Unlike the HAMR participants they usually have full time jobs.

AUKs very own late Pat Kenny rode 30,000 miles and did his full time job as a civil engineer plus occasionally saw his wife and two daughters. There is a current AUK who regularly rides 20,000 miles plus around the day job. You won't probably heard of these people just to name a few as what they do is only found within 300,000 miles club.

So, there is a small group of cyclist who do know how to ride a year.

I ride somewhere around 25,000 miles a year around a (more than) full time job, a family, and also taking part in another sport. It just involves getting up very early and getting home quite late. I could not mentally ride 75,000 miles a year, it's a totally different kettle of fish. I'd be bored out my mind to be honest and just want to do something different. All day, every day- breaking up the day with a full time job although it takes a lot of time, I consider it nothing like the same. Physically, who knows, but I'd rather do 25,000 miles and have another life any day long, what these boys are up to is just a totally, totally different experience I reckon. But that's just me. I'm sure other people might love to be on their bike 24/7 and do nothing else. I'd miss my family and friends for a start.

I am very relieved to see Steve's obviously feeling a little better :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 21 December, 2015, 11:31:40 am
The point Lady Cavendish is that there are people who know how to put together a good year ride. To do the Tommy Godwin it is mainly scaling up as the principles remain the same.

Yes I do agree to ride 75,000 plus that you do need to be able to deal with a fare amount of tedious riding.   But to crank out anything beyond 15,000 miles unless you don't work a fair amount of tedious riding is involved.

I wouldn't say Steve is well - a very extend toilet stop isn't good.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Lady Cavendish on 21 December, 2015, 11:41:27 am
I don't really find my general riding tedious, but then I don't ride to count miles just for miles sake, I don't have any of these mileage targets or anything, not my thing- maybe then it would become tedious, or like a chore. I do get what you're saying though.

And yep, I said 'better' not 'well' ;) Hopefully improving at least. I've no idea how he's riding so far with stomach issues  :sick:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 21 December, 2015, 11:52:04 am
You could probably draw some sort of Venn diagram showing how the three main 'constituencies' interested in Steve's ride interacted over time. Those constituencies being his core team, YACF and Strava/Facebook.

In terms of purely financial support, there is also an option to make a one off £1 donation when entering any AUK calendar event via PayPal. So there is potentially quite a large body of silent supporters out there who've made small one-off contributions: I know I'm among them.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 21 December, 2015, 11:57:03 am
I now question if its worth continuing to donate to the cause, nothing to do with if the record is broken or not, just from the point of view of feeling that the support given is not valued. After all it can't be too much effort to put out a news letter once a week to help keep Steve's fan club on the edge our seats.

Either you are donating to help Steve in his attempt to break the record, or you feel you've paid for regular updates as a form of entertainment. Arguably you could have both, but without a slightly slicker PR operation this may be tricky for Steve & Co to arrange. Personally I am not a regular direct debit supporter and have no expectations of regular news updates, however I might suggest that those who do have such expectations need to rein them in a bit. Yes, we are in the era of instantaneous updates, immediate gratification, soshul meedja and all that. Maybe though folk ought to cut Steve and his immediate support crew some slack: they presumably have their hands full as it is...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 21 December, 2015, 12:00:32 pm
In 34 pages of posts I can only see a single one that could possibly be construed as having a dig at Steve (gleefully quoted by mattC).  It's pretty apparent that everyone here is not only captivated by the challenge but also wants the best for Steve.

"gleefully" ??

What makes you think that? This isn't a debating contest - I dont award myself points for highlighting how awful people sometimes are :(


[And to your 2nd point: no. MOST people are very much "wanting the best for Steve", but there is a very small - yet vocal - nasty minority. I suspect they are motivated like most internet trolls, in that ... oh heck, I've said all this stuff once before  ... )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 21 December, 2015, 12:07:05 pm
In addition to stepping up to one of the upper plinths on the pantheon of the 20th century records attempts, it's perhaps worth remembering that Steve will be recorded by HAM'R as the record holder at close of play 31 December, and will hold his age-group record for at least a year. 

Not bad for a humble bloke from Bedfordshire, who likes to ride his bike.

+1
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 21 December, 2015, 12:08:16 pm
I visit these pages almost every day and try to keep track of what Steve is up to. IIRC I set up a DD a year ago, set to expire this month. I don't expect anything for my money, just the knowledge that the record attempt is still alive.

I don't know what the roles of the various team members are so I have no clue about whether they are doing their jobs properly or not. Alicia, OTOH, must have an awful lot of time on her hands as Kurt spins his way round the hamster wheel: there are only so many hours a day you can spend shopping for pop tarts. She's ideally placed to spend a bit of time on publicity and I'd say that she has used that time well.

If at some future stage Steve decided to try again (says he, assuming that this attempt isn't going to take the record) and he wants to try the camper-van approach, provided I have fully given up work (another 3 years away I think) I wouldn't mind at all being one of a group who take on the duties of driver/cook if a camper van were part of Steve's plans.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 21 December, 2015, 12:29:58 pm
You could probably draw some sort of Venn diagram showing how the three main 'constituencies' interested in Steve's ride interacted over time. Those constituencies being his core team, YACF and Strava/Facebook.

In terms of purely financial support, there is also an option to make a one off £1 donation when entering any AUK calendar event via PayPal. So there is potentially quite a large body of silent supporters out there who've made small one-off contributions: I know I'm among them.

This is exactly what makes me feel uncomfortable. I'm guessing many AUK members will have made small contributions towards Steve's attempt. They literally have an invested interest in what's going on and there's been little feedback. It also may be contributing to Steve feeling 'obliged' to ride against advice, if that is the case.

Does this optional support continue after 31st December? It does specifically say 2015 in the graphic on the entry form.

PS. It's optional of course but it's always seemed a bit odd to me for the organisation to ask for money for something like this. Individual and corporate sponsorship is a bit different to this IMO.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 21 December, 2015, 12:34:40 pm
...
Quote
there is also an option to make a one off £1 donation when entering any AUK calendar event via PayPal. So there is potentially quite a large body of silent supporters out there who've made small one-off contributions.
...

PS. It's optional of course but it's always seemed a bit odd to me for the organisation to ask for money for something like this. Individual and corporate sponsorship is a bit different to this IMO.
Not sure I see a problem. Its a  bit like having a Comic Relief bucket at the supermarket tills.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 21 December, 2015, 12:46:56 pm
Glimpses of how truly huge this challenge is #417: There's a feeling now that Kurt can almost cruise home as he nears the end of the challenge. But to beat the record he still needs to do 3.7 PBPs back to back.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 21 December, 2015, 12:49:38 pm
...
Quote
there is also an option to make a one off £1 donation when entering any AUK calendar event via PayPal. So there is potentially quite a large body of silent supporters out there who've made small one-off contributions.
...

PS. It's optional of course but it's always seemed a bit odd to me for the organisation to ask for money for something like this. Individual and corporate sponsorship is a bit different to this IMO.
Not sure I see a problem. Its a  bit like having a Comic Relief bucket at the supermarket tills.

Indeed, and the amount is small: £1 won't even get you to one stop along the road on a bus these days. A bag of crisps, maybe.

If you enter say a dozen AUK calendar events and choose to donate, you've given £12, hardly a fortune. Equivalent to one course of a meal when eating in a modest establishment. You can always choose not to donate, too.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ian H on 21 December, 2015, 12:53:18 pm

... I wouldn't mind at all being one of a group who take on the duties of driver/cook if a camper van were part of Steve's plans.

How much of Alicia's role where you thinking of taking on?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wine Mechanic on 21 December, 2015, 12:54:45 pm
I now question if its worth continuing to donate to the cause, nothing to do with if the record is broken or not, just from the point of view of feeling that the support given is not valued. After all it can't be too much effort to put out a news letter once a week to help keep Steve's fan club on the edge our seats.

Either you are donating to help Steve in his attempt to break the record, or you feel you've paid for regular updates as a form of entertainment. Arguably you could have both, but without a slightly slicker PR operation this may be tricky for Steve & Co to arrange. Personally I am not a regular direct debit supporter and have no expectations of regular news updates, however I might suggest that those who do have such expectations need to rein them in a bit. Yes, we are in the era of instantaneous updates, immediate gratification, soshul meedja and all that. Maybe though folk ought to cut Steve and his immediate support crew some slack: they presumably have their hands full as it is...

Your right I am principally donating to help Steve break the record and I dont feel by donating that I've paid for regular news updates to entertain me, but  I am genuinely interested in Steve's journey, so how is anyone supposed to gain any knowledge of situation when there is only conjecture  supported by the odd fact banded about.  There used to be updates on Steve's webpage every month or so , since July one post.  This post is about  current thoughts on the record attempt, my view is that communication could be better from the team.




 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 21 December, 2015, 01:02:33 pm
I now question if its worth continuing to donate to the cause, nothing to do with if the record is broken or not, just from the point of view of feeling that the support given is not valued. After all it can't be too much effort to put out a news letter once a week to help keep Steve's fan club on the edge our seats.

Either you are donating to help Steve in his attempt to break the record, or you feel you've paid for regular updates as a form of entertainment. Arguably you could have both, but without a slightly slicker PR operation this may be tricky for Steve & Co to arrange. Personally I am not a regular direct debit supporter and have no expectations of regular news updates, however I might suggest that those who do have such expectations need to rein them in a bit. Yes, we are in the era of instantaneous updates, immediate gratification, soshul meedja and all that. Maybe though folk ought to cut Steve and his immediate support crew some slack: they presumably have their hands full as it is...

Your right I am principally donating to help Steve break the record and I dont feel by donating that I've paid for regular news updates to entertain me, but  I am genuinely interested in Steve's journey, so how is anyone supposed to gain any knowledge of situation when there is only conjecture  supported by the odd fact banded about.  There used to be updates on Steve's webpage every month or so , since July one post.  This post is about  current thoughts on the record attempt, my view is that communication could be better from the team.

Fair enough. The Facebook page seems to have reasonably regular updates. Steve has even been on this forum recently posting comments!
Otherwise Jo is doing a great job of giving us daily updates on Steve's progress, route, any issues, etc. on the "Visualising the OYTT" thread here. That's what I'm following.  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 21 December, 2015, 01:03:24 pm

... I wouldn't mind at all being one of a group who take on the duties of driver/cook if a camper van were part of Steve's plans.

How much of Alicia's role where you thinking of taking on?

I was being specific.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 21 December, 2015, 01:09:46 pm
I still have the old spreadsheet as my favourites (that wasn't updated after 29th May by the look of it) it shows Steve's average the day before his accident as 193mpd; (of which 9 days were above 212miles) pretty much what it is now. An extra 20 per day from now to break the record is possible but would require a considerable improvement. January will be critical.

Kurt's was 201mpd during that period
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 21 December, 2015, 01:10:07 pm
I would think that a tracker showing within a few minutes exactly where Steve is in the course of a day is pretty good feedback. In March, when he stopped for all that time in Devon, the longer it went on, the more worried I became. Likewise, in recent days the state of Steve's alimentary canal has been broadcast far and wide for our delectation.

OK, this isn't being given a glimpse into the finer points of team Steve's strategy, but if, after more than 11 months, it hasn't sunk in what that is (Steve gets up, rides a huge distance with occasional meal stops, goes to bed and does the same again every day) we haven't got the grips with what his strategy is, well...

That actually calls into question what the point of The Team actually is, apart from the domestic duties back at Steve's flat, assuming that he is still having someone in to do his shopping, cooking and laundry.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ian H on 21 December, 2015, 01:15:38 pm


That actually calls into question what the point of The Team actually is, apart from the domestic duties back at Steve's flat, assuming that he is still having someone in to do his shopping, cooking and laundry.

Currently?  Those things, and getting the bikes maintained; keeping up interest on the FB page. Plus advertising for car-assist volunteers.  There's been a good response so far – complying with UMCA regs is a bit of a faff, but they're pretty responsive.
Title: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 21 December, 2015, 01:37:18 pm
Once you have sponsors be they jo public or of the type the Pro teams have or the big amateurs teams, I would say you have a duty to keep the people that are paying for you to ride updated and informed.  It's part of the deal. If you don't want that, then take Kurt's approach and self fund.

And I would say that keeping people informed on a project like this goes beyond FB - lots of people don't do FB.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: postie on 21 December, 2015, 05:38:27 pm
That very right hk, i and others from portsmouth area have monthly payments to steves fund plus one off donations made from the audax club Portsmouth chirstmas bash and my racing club. And in months we not had a word from his team. My feeling this is very poor show on there part. I will continue to support steve as he is a long standing friend.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Foghat on 21 December, 2015, 06:26:05 pm
To me - speaking as a friend of Steve - I just find this snide and nasty.

Don’t be ridiculous, although that’s your prerogative I suppose.  It’s a reasonable question, given the hitherto resolute adherence to a tortoise strategy that was clearly not going to work once it became obvious (many months ago) that the days aren’t long enough to succeed on the average speeds being achieved.  Especially as through the winter the situation could only get worse.

However, that some of Steve’s friends believe stifling debate about efficacy of strategy is more appropriate than trying harder to convince and help their friend to consider changing the doomed strategy is really rather surprising.  It’s taken this long for any change in strategy to be tried - maybe if the deniers had encouraged the debate instead of the repeated “Steve knows best”, “energy vampires” short-sighted shouting down of the perfectly reasonable discussion, the move to a possible record-rescuing strategy would have been achieved a lot earlier.

If those friends are more concerned with his health, then they probably ought to be persuading him to stop rather than keep banging away at the 30lb-tourer-fully-Carradiced headwind-chewing audax approach when the record is clearly out of reach that way.  At the very least they should have tried, and exhorted others (including those here), to persuade Steve that changing strategy was the only way the record could come......and I'm sure it gives no one any pleasure that it has/had to be this way.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 21 December, 2015, 06:59:34 pm
To me - speaking as a friend of Steve - I just find this snide and nasty.

Don’t be ridiculous, although that’s your prerogative I suppose.  It’s a reasonable question,
No, it isnt.

It was snide and nasty. (That is what I think and feel. It may be my "prerogative" to be ridiculous, but that is irrelevant here.)

As are all your comments telling Steve's friends what YOU think they should be doing for him.

Your tone is very different from a concerned party looking for constructive discussion. End of.




Now: anyone fancy a friendly positive discussion, free of dick-waving? If so, bring it on :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 21 December, 2015, 07:22:59 pm
I would think that a tracker showing within a few minutes exactly where Steve is in the course of a day is pretty good feedback. In March, when he stopped for all that time in Devon, the longer it went on, the more worried I became. Likewise, in recent days the state of Steve's alimentary canal has been broadcast far and wide for our delectation.

OK, this isn't being given a glimpse into the finer points of team Steve's strategy, but if, after more than 11 months, it hasn't sunk in what that is (Steve gets up, rides a huge distance with occasional meal stops, goes to bed and does the same again every day) we haven't got the grips with what his strategy is, well...


 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 21 December, 2015, 07:26:09 pm
Saucer of milk anyone? :-*
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 21 December, 2015, 07:36:23 pm
My current thoughts about the record attempt are much the same as they were a year ago.

Quote

I remember Mc Nasty telling us that he once met the bloke who got the highest mileage in a year. He mentioned that he had to re-learn how to walk afterwards and that he caught night trains into the wind so he could ride all day with a tailwind.
I'd check the facts before taking it as true, but Mc Nasty does know a thing or two about long distance cycling.

It's certainly worth finding out that sort of detail, otherwise you're working against an impossible target; chasing Godwin's record in a different ethical climate.

We know he had support from an elite group of Raleigh professional riders, and that place-to-place records were run at times when suitable winds were likely, and still are.

https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=72564.475
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 21 December, 2015, 07:47:15 pm
Thanks for a re-read of all that, most interesting
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 21 December, 2015, 07:54:21 pm
The main difference in my thoughts is the knowledge that it was Sturmey Archer, a subsidiary of Raleigh that ran a team of record-breakers.

(http://cdn.ipernity.com/138/39/51/27923951.022591dd.560.jpg?r2)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Glover Fan on 21 December, 2015, 09:25:01 pm
Hi all.

I've not posted for quite a while now - I've taken a year (or so) out of cycling and audaxing to focus on family life BLAH BLAH.

Anyway, I've been prompted to this thread as I have been in training for next year's London Marathon and I have noticed through Strava some of the challenges Steve is currently coming up against. Unfortunately, the weather has generally been awful for the past month or so, with wind and rain typically in order.

I'm not privy to the current health problems, but it sounds digestion related which must be pretty grim and I guess would have occurred if this was still the first attempt.

I don't know Steve, but he is clearly in another league to many of us mere mortals, but I followed every single day that went by on here - not necessarily posting, but I was pretty captivated by the attempt.

It has to be said though as soon as I heard of the awful accident earlier in the year, I knew that suddenly this challenge changed in it's emphasis from a heavily weighted physical challenge to a mental one. One has to commend and admire Steve for the way in which he battled on with one legs etc etc, but I cannot imagine the mental turmoil that the lad must be going through - i'm sure he would never admit it, but the pressure of having donors, sponsors, taking a year out of work and the huge amount of latent expectation both offline and online must be absolutely horrendous to deal with and my worry is that whilst everyone is querying his physical condition, which admittedly right now doesn't sound great - some counsel over his mental state must be sought.

Whenever I have faced a challenge and for me anything over 200km's in a day was a challenge - it was always overcoming the mental challenges that were the toughest - the physical ones can be pushed through.

I hope this isn't construed as sticking my oar in where it is not wanted - but as I said I was only prompted here again out of worry.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 21 December, 2015, 10:39:11 pm
On contributions, entitlements to updates, being “bad” for being - in my case - somewhat worried about how Steve is, and being a damned spoilsport for wondering if a different strategy might be worth considering by way of achieving his goal.

I don’t feel entitled, as such, to special updates of any kind as a result of making a small contribution. As Wowbagger has said, it is possible to get a fair understanding of Steve’s progress via Jo’s superb infographics, this forum, and social media. However, as I mentioned earlier, I would like to be more reassured that by chipping in I am not in any small way adding to pressure on Steve to persist with any particular approach - such as riding when unwell, for example, although I do of course appreciate that Steve has vast experience of pushing himself to the limits and that experience must be respected.

That is the essence of my minor gripes in relation to updates or information provision: that it almost always lacks the personal touch that would provide that reassurance.

On the other hand I fully appreciate that Steve may be someone that chooses not to divulge such information, even in vague terms, and that is a right that remains his regardless of any financial support from whatever source.

Anyway, I see he has had a couple of good days with tactical headwind avoidance, so onwards and upwards.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 21 December, 2015, 10:54:26 pm
I don’t feel entitled, as such, to special updates of any kind as a result of making a small contribution.

I feel the same, and I think the quote from Peter Hammill's "Energy Vampires"

"I've got every one of your records, man,
Doesn't that mean I own you?"

is apposite here.

There are trolls on this thread, there are supporters and there are concerned people. The shame is if the concerned people get swayed by the trolls to expect beyond what is reasonable and what is fair.

I do not contribute to Steve's challenge so that I am party to the contents of his bowel.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 21 December, 2015, 11:00:01 pm
The last couple of posts ^ are spot on :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 23 December, 2015, 01:09:29 pm
Just a thought on the stomach troubles - it could easily be a bug that he picked up from some roadside muck.  I struggled round the 2nd day of the Brimstone last year because of a campylobacter infection picked up from a muddy lane on the first day (confirmed by a GP who was also on the same event and was laid low in exactly the same way). 

And a thought on December mileage.  Tommy's mileage wasn't brilliant in December either.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LEE on 23 December, 2015, 01:39:00 pm
Just a thought on the stomach troubles - it could easily be a bug that he picked up from some roadside muck.  I struggled round the 2nd day of the Brimstone last year because of a campylobacter infection picked up from a muddy lane on the first day (confirmed by a GP who was also on the same event and was laid low in exactly the same way). 

Can someone confirm that Steve is using covered Water Bottles?

If he isn't then he will be sipping small amounts of cow-shit all winter (actually any time you get run-off from fields or cycle through the mud at a farm gate). 
I've posted on the subject of covered water bottles before.  I started using them after several winters of stomach issues (with me it was the feeling I had swallowed a bowling ball for a few days).

So much of the Godwin attempt is down to the luck of not getting ill (or hit by a motorbike) and covered water bottles are a simple way to "increase your luck".
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 23 December, 2015, 01:43:03 pm
I think he is using standard Nuun bidons as he is sponsored by them.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 23 December, 2015, 01:46:07 pm
Can someone confirm that Steve is using covered Water Bottles?

Doesn't look like it, from the photos I've seen.  He is at least using proper mudguards.


Quote
If he isn't then he will be sipping small amounts of cow-shit all winter (actually any time you get run-off from fields or cycle through the mud at a farm gate).

Given where he's riding, some of it will be pig shit.   :hand:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 23 December, 2015, 01:49:30 pm

[quote author=CrazyEnglishTriathlete link=topic=90295.msg1962699#msg1962699 date=14508

And a thought on December mileage.  Tommy's mileage wasn't brilliant in December either.
[/quote]

Yes, but Tommy was significantly faster then Steve and as Citizenfishy has explained had a very organised, well thought out and supported summer months.

Steve's plan seems to be one of doing the average daily mileage of each and every day. I would think that using this approach you can only go into miles debt so far before the debt exceeds your ability to pay back.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 23 December, 2015, 02:18:45 pm
Kurt's average was 201 for the early part of the year; it's taken him until now to get it to 208. Getting Steve's current average up by nearly 20mpd before August is going to take a new strategy IMHO (and it will need to be a bit higher once Kurt has set the new record)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 23 December, 2015, 06:49:34 pm
Meanwhile, weather forecast looks full-on for Christmas Day and Boxing day, so while we're opening presents, eating Christmas Dinner, getting royally pissed in front of The Queen, and (in full hangover mode) take on the masses at the Boxing Day sales, Steve'll be out there slogging away in the wind and rain.

I hope his support team have some form of Christmas planned for Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 23 December, 2015, 07:20:40 pm
If Steve heads west there'll be a festive welcome for him here
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 23 December, 2015, 07:51:21 pm
I shan't be watching the queen!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 23 December, 2015, 08:08:01 pm
Apparently Steve doesn't need this experienced helper at all between Christmas and New Year. Good to see that Hoppo has Steve's best interests at heart.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tail End Charlie on 23 December, 2015, 08:53:30 pm
Nice bunch of sour grapes there. I'm not one who thinks Steve's approach shouldn't be questioned, but that's not the way to do it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 23 December, 2015, 08:59:10 pm
'tis a shame though. It'll be a longer than usual chalk over the next few days with the rough weather. Would be nice to catch a tail wind and then get a lift back to MK.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 23 December, 2015, 08:59:15 pm
Believe what you want TEC. I've already supported Steve for 3 x 24hr TTs.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 23 December, 2015, 09:16:09 pm
I am sorry that the offer of help wasn't accepted.  It cannot be easy obtaining meals on the move on Christmas day as often it is Fine dining for groups of friends etc.  However perhaps the TEAM have it all in hand and thanks in advance to you all if you have.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 23 December, 2015, 09:47:34 pm
Apparently Steve doesn't need this experienced helper at all between Christmas and New Year. Good to see that Hoppo has Steve's best interests at heart.

Are you hurt for Steve's campaign, or your ego?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 23 December, 2015, 09:54:58 pm
Apparently Steve doesn't need this experienced helper at all between Christmas and New Year. Good to see that Hoppo has Steve's best interests at heart.

Don't take it to heart, wheelers, I'm sure it's nothing personal.

Looking at it kindly, the organisation of the attempt is now ad hoc.

Or one could describe it as shambolic.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 23 December, 2015, 10:20:20 pm
Apparently Steve doesn't need this experienced helper at all between Christmas and New Year. Good to see that Hoppo has Steve's best interests at heart.

Don't take it to heart, wheelers, I'm sure it's nothing personal.

Looking at it kindly, the organisation of the attempt is now ad hoc.

Or one could describe it as shambolic.

Do you have direct knowledge of Steve's team/organisation to describe it as shambolic?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 23 December, 2015, 10:24:55 pm
Jaded, nothing would make me happier than Steve reaching his goal but that isn't going to happen unless his campaign dramatically changes, which obviously won't occur now. At the current rate, in about a week's time, Steve will be too far behind to catch up by August.

It was becoming obvious before Steve got knocked off that he couldn't do enough daily miles at that slow pace. He then had the opportunity to heal properly, get his speed back (he's done 449 miles in 24hrs twice) and restart at a decent pace. Instead, he mucked about riding one-legged and never recovered properly. All of Steve's effort and determination, along with huge amounts of goodwill and support, has been pissed away.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 23 December, 2015, 10:33:05 pm
Well, I still support him because he has done something that almost nobody has done before. I'm not upset that my money or my hosting has not resulted in a record, or may not result in the new record. I never had 100% expectations of that. That would have been silly.

I'm upset that a drunk person can cause so much grief, but more so that so many can take such glee in calling Steve a failure.

Shame on them.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 23 December, 2015, 10:36:56 pm
considering how active Hoppo is on Facebook with his own self promotion, you'd think he'd mention Steve once in a while
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 23 December, 2015, 10:38:58 pm
Well, I still support him because he has done something that almost nobody has done be
I'm upset that a drunk person can cause so much grief, but more so that so many can take such glee in calling Steve a failure.

Shame on them.

Not this again!  Please, for the sake of sanity, if you are going to make accusations like that then quote posts where someone - anyone - has taken glee in calling Steve a failure.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 23 December, 2015, 10:39:18 pm
Quote
but more so that so many can take such glee in calling Steve a failure.

don't think anyone has have they, theres been nothing but support, and lately concern for Steve, 99.9% of it positive
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 23 December, 2015, 10:48:19 pm
No-one has called Steve a failure. He's an absolutely incredible cyclist, an inspiration to us all. It would take about 20 of us, on average, to match the miles he has cycled this year. I have seen pretty much nothing but support for him on these pages, and out of that, concern for his well-being.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 23 December, 2015, 10:52:05 pm
Shambolic. Pissed away. Steve doesn't need this experienced helper.

That's just the last page.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 23 December, 2015, 10:56:32 pm
None of that gleefully calls Steve a failure and all of it is true.

It is also true that Steve is failing at taking the record. Steve has the talent to take the record, if he and his team maximised his distance, but that isn't happening. Sad but true.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 23 December, 2015, 10:58:54 pm
None of that gleefully calls Steve a failure and all of it is true.

It is also true that Steve is failing at taking the record. Steve has the talent to take the record, if he and his team maximised his distance, but that isn't happening. Sad but true.

+1; didn't Steve do a 280 mile day this year? the potential was there.

I can't help wondering how genuine (as in ridden on a bike without drafting verified distances etc) the Tommy record pace actually is, given the Herculean effort Kurt has been required to make to keep above it on nominally faster roads across the pond...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 23 December, 2015, 11:23:26 pm
I can't help wondering how genuine (as in ridden on a bike without drafting verified distances etc) the Tommy record pace actually is, given the Herculean effort Kurt has been required to make to keep above it on nominally faster roads across the pond...

I've been thinking the same thing myself of late.

Anybody who goes to those lengths to break a record like this, and does so within the parameters set down before them, deserves a good crack at the fortune whip IMO. If Kurt manages to break Godwin's record, all those kind of doubts about the credibility of his predecessor will be history, because the new focal point will be this new guy from Arkansas. Any doubts about what he did, and how he did it....then, well ..... it's all out there. Go see for yourself.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 23 December, 2015, 11:24:20 pm
Don't doubt Tommy's distances. They are real. Tommy was plenty fast enough to cover those miles on his bike but there was a lot of support required to achieve them.

Don't confuse 'real' with purely unpaced/ non-drafting. There has never been anything stopping riders from drafting in this record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 23 December, 2015, 11:39:21 pm
Sure....I don't doubt the credibility of the man [quite the opposite in fact], but for me, the crazy magnitude of the challenge has been thrown into sharp focus by how our two riders have been fairing in their respective attempts.
Steve has been struggling, losing miles in the process which are so hard to claw back, and Kurt, despite his tenacious riding, is hardly going to blow this thing out of the water is he? - incredible as his achievement is.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 23 December, 2015, 11:42:18 pm
Not quite sure what is going on at the moment looking at Steve's tracking page but it looks to be a low milage day.

I'd recommend a power meter, Steve could incorporate a power tap hub into a wheel build. That way he can maximise speed whilst still keeping his effort hovering around the endurance zone.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 23 December, 2015, 11:59:01 pm
I think the actual mileage will be significantly higher, but we'll see.

Looking at the graph, Steve was fine until about day 100 of the consecutive attempt...Kurt had similar drops and recovered, so it's quite possible Steve will do the same, but if he's not able to then at least he tried which is a huge amount more than any of us has ever done.   I'm glass half full on this and think Steve needs encouragement rather than negativity, so on a positive note....GOOOO Steve :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 24 December, 2015, 12:23:15 am
I think the actual mileage will be significantly higher, but we'll see.

Looking at the graph, Steve was fine until about day 100 of the consecutive attempt...Kurt had similar drops and recovered, so it's quite possible Steve will do the same, but if he's not able to then at least he tried which is a huge amount more than any of us has ever done.   I'm glass half full on this and think Steve needs encouragement rather than negativity, so on a positive note....GOOOO Steve :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Well.. I see he's just past 100,000kms since Jan 1st.
That's 100,000kms more than me some years!
I couldn't get my head round this whole thing on Jan 1st.
Not sure I still can!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 24 December, 2015, 12:29:35 am
Personally, I reckon Steve should abandon the restarted attempt on the 31st, having done a spectacular job and beaten several records on the original attempt *with a broken ankle*.  Then he can take some time to recover and have a good hard think about strategy before having another go at it at a later date.  I'm sure most of us would continue to support him...

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Peter on 24 December, 2015, 01:07:47 am
I only dip into this thread, so I don't know if anyone has mentioned that when he set the record, Tommy Godwin, as well as being an established long distance cyclist with some pretty fast rides to his credit, was 27.  I say again, "was 27".  I think this is hugely important.  Of course it also emphasises what astonishing efforts Kurt and Steve have made.  But Tommy Godwin was 27.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 24 December, 2015, 01:27:11 am
I only dip into this thread, so I don't know if anyone has mentioned that when he set the record, Tommy Godwin, as well as being an established long distance cyclist with some pretty fast rides to his credit, was 27.  I say again, "was 27".  I think this is hugely important.  Of course it also emphasises what astonishing efforts Kurt and Steve have made.  But Tommy Godwin was 27.

If a Brit wanted to be a professional cyclist in the 1930s, they had to do distance records. Time Trialling was semi-underground, and was resolutely amateur. Road Racing didn't exist. Any interaction between cycling, the media and manufacturers was via distance records, hence a talented young rider spending a year of his life on this. Even then, Raleigh only got involved when Godwin was well under way.

It's possible that a future rider will pick up big money sponsorship, especially as the groundwork has been done, much as the 'round the world' now has more currency.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 24 December, 2015, 03:03:53 am
Personally, I reckon Steve should abandon the restarted attempt on the 31st, having done a spectacular job and beaten several records on the original attempt *with a broken ankle*.  Then he can take some time to recover and have a good hard think about strategy before having another go at it at a later date.  I'm sure most of us would continue to support him...



I totally agree. If a dispassionate look at things shows that the probability of breaking the record on the concurrent attempt is now out of realistic reach, I see no point in continuing it. Whatever happens, Steve will finish 2015 with an incredible total, which will stand among the top 5 ever achieved (I believe). To plug on for another 8 months without a realistic chance of taking the top spot seems perverse, at best. Far better to take a year off, regroup and decide if a different strategy would produce the desired result and, if it looks unlikely, let this effort stand on its merits and move on to something else. I doubt anyone here would regard that as any kind of failure.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 24 December, 2015, 07:40:09 am
Absolutely.  Steve has put an enormous amount into this and achieved much over 2015.  But it would be far better to recognise now that the restart can't work rather than ride himself into the ground to the detriment of his physical, and mental, health.  To encourage him to stick with it at this stage would be foolhardy and cruel.  The best message that those who are in contact with him could give him is that he has achieved a lot but the record is not realistic so it would be ok to stop.  And, if he does stop, he has not let anyone down.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 24 December, 2015, 08:01:07 am
Personally, I reckon Steve should abandon the restarted attempt on the 31st, having done a spectacular job...
I totally agree. If a dispassionate look at things shows that the probability of breaking the record on the concurrent attempt is now out of realistic reach, I see no point in continuing it. Whatever happens, Steve will finish 2015 with an incredible total...
100% in agreement with Kim and TimC.  Sadly, what I suspect will happen is that Steve will plug on ("because that's what he does, heh?") and that no-one on the so-called team will brave the conversation with him that ought to be had.  It'd be marginally more likely to be taken on board coming from someone on the inside, but my two-penn'orth to Steve is that he's done amazingly, but there's no sense compromising long-term health in pursuit of the 08/15-08/16 attempt.
I'm a little bit shocked that Phartiphukborlz's and LWaB's offers of help have not been even acknowledged (let alone accepted), and about Fidgetbuzz's revelations about team communications.  I've got some personal opinions about the (dys)function of the team that are probably best not expressed on a public forum.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 24 December, 2015, 08:22:26 am
A small correction. There was a reply from the team to my offer, basically "Thanks but no thanks"
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 24 December, 2015, 08:32:54 am
When did you get this?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 24 December, 2015, 08:36:06 am
Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 24 December, 2015, 08:38:12 am
A small correction. There was a reply from the team to my offer, basically "Thanks but no thanks"
Okay, but the essence remains.  What you were offering would have been fantastic - a real tribute to your generosity - and the numbers are suggesting that Steve could use all the help he can get at the moment.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 24 December, 2015, 08:41:38 am
Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.
It's Thursday today.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 24 December, 2015, 08:52:37 am
Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.
It's Thursday today.
Your point being?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 24 December, 2015, 08:53:56 am
As Kurt brings home the miles at Flatwood Park, one of the photos posted on Facebook shows in part how he is able to ride 220 mile days after nearly a year of stamina-sapping days in the saddle (Kurt is in the middle in red):

(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xaf1/t31.08/10556978_10207981655119223_5627592149598929576_o.jpg)

Cycling conditions could not be any better for efficient use of effort. Not in any way a dig at Kurt or a suggestion that knocking out 220 is easy, as this seems like an entirely sensible strategy for him to take the record.
 
I know there have been plenty of calls here and elsewhere for Steve to find an equivalent environment and adopt a similar strategy. But for me at least, part of the attraction of Steve's attempt is the approach it represents. Riding it audax style is something I can identify with. It represents a way of cycling I admire and is in contrast to a more 'professional' approach that Kurt's world represents. For me it's not a question of which is 'better' or more effective, but which has more emotional resonance.

This isn't a call for business as usual as Steve slips down from the Godwin line, but a recognition that there is more to this than simply riding the most miles in a year.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 24 December, 2015, 08:57:13 am
Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.
It's Thursday today.
Your point being?
You'll have to think a bit harder.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 24 December, 2015, 09:02:29 am
Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.
It's Thursday today.
Your point being?
You'll have to think a bit harder.
No, I still can't see what point you're trying to make.  Happy Thursday, though.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 24 December, 2015, 09:13:04 am
Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.
It's Thursday today.
Your point being?
You'll have to think a bit harder.
No, I still can't see what point you're trying to make.  Happy Thursday, though.
I had hoped you would but it's really more for LWAB to have a think about it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 24 December, 2015, 09:22:20 am
Unless your point was along the lines of...

'they said "no" on Monday but now it's three days later (Thursday!) and the attempt is still spiralling downward so the "Team" might (just might) have re-evaluated and considered how good an offer they were turning down...

then no, I'm at a loss.  But considering your IMHO-twattish attitude to LWaB upthread, that seems unlikely.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 24 December, 2015, 09:38:39 am
Interpreting semi-cryptic stuff on the internet gives a lot of opportunity to misinterpret the actual meaning. Just say what you really mean using plain language.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 24 December, 2015, 09:41:51 am
Let us all hope that at the end of December and with over 100,000k Steve will make the sensible decision  (Whatever that is considered the best option).  He is some 1775 mls below the Godwin Line.  If he were to average 215 mls a  day from now on  (not possible being winter ) it would take some 6.5 months to claw back to the Godwin Line.  Let us all hope that the benefits of the better diet will kick in very soon.  Also let us hope that Steve can have more vehicle transfers to his advantage.  I would like to contribute more money to his efforts and it would be nice to hear from team member early in 2016 of adjusted strategy to enable him to maximise his miles to the maximum advantage.
Steve do  have a successful last week to the end of December and the completion of the first attempt and rightly take your place of fame amongst the greats (and hopefully onwards and upwards! )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 24 December, 2015, 09:42:32 am
My guess is Jaded thought that:-

A small correction. There was a reply from the team to my offer, basically "Thanks but no thanks"

was a correction to what LWaB had said before (i.e. he'd made it sound like they never even responded), instead of it being LWaB correcting Legs' assumption:-

...
I'm a little bit shocked that Phartiphukborlz's and LWaB's offers of help have not been even acknowledged (let alone accepted), ...

If you misread it that way then it may look like LWaB was sitting on that information on purpose to make Steve's team look worse and only correcting it now.

[EDIT] Looking back LWaB said that he'd received no response on the 14th, but obviously the response came after those postings, and he's corrected that as soon as someone made a reference to there being no response.

Storm, teacup.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 24 December, 2015, 09:48:21 am
Let us all hope that at the end of December and with over 100,000k Steve will make the sensible decision  (Whatever that is considered the best option).  He is some 1775 mls below the Godwin Line.  If he were to average 215 mls a  day from now on  (not possible being winter ) it would take some 6.5 months to claw back to the Godwin Line.  Let us all hope that the benefits of the better diet will kick in very soon.  Also let us hope that Steve can have more vehicle transfers to his advantage.  I would like to contribute more money to his efforts and it would be nice to hear from team member early in 2016 of adjusted strategy to enable him to maximise his miles to the maximum advantage.
Steve do  have a successful last week to the end of December and the completion of the first attempt and rightly take your place of fame amongst the greats (and hopefully onwards and upwards! )

Well said.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 24 December, 2015, 10:01:59 am
Ah - thanks for the detective-work, Greenbank!  Yep, I probably shouldn't have assumed that the 'sound of crickets' was ongoing... (but, come to think of it, if LWaB made his offer on or before 11/12 and the thanks-but-no-thanks wasn't given back until 21/12, that's pretty shabby)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 24 December, 2015, 10:07:05 am


Well said.
[/quote]


Many thanks
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 24 December, 2015, 10:14:49 am
I'd like to remain positive about this attempt but it's not looking great given the great unknown of the health problems, but I can see why he's sticking to it for now.

A while ago (early/mid November) my thoughts were still good based on looking at jo's graph and unselecting the "Common start times" checkbox. You'll then see:-

In other words, he would have matched Tommy mile for mile from the restart in August to December 31st and then just has to beat Tommy (and soon to be Kurt) between January and August, which he looked like he was on track to do (if that graph picked up and the big miles appeared in the warmer lighter spring/summer).

However, the recent health problems have seriously dented this as (at the current rate) he's going to finish the year ~2500 miles down on Tommy's pace and although he was 2500 miles ahead of Tommy's pace after 3 months of his first attempt he'd need to be:-
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 24 December, 2015, 10:23:06 am
Ah - thanks for the detective-work, Greenbank!  Yep, I probably shouldn't have assumed that the 'sound of crickets' was ongoing... (but, come to think of it, if LWaB made his offer on or before 11/12 and the thanks-but-no-thanks wasn't given back until 21/12, that's pretty shabby)

More assumptions! LWAB did say "after I had complied with their requests" but didn't say how long that took. Certainly not as simple as crickets. Plus, given the vitriol that the whole "No reply" thing caused, perhaps something a little stronger than "A small correction" might have ben in order. I've highlighted the most judgemental bit of your post  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 24 December, 2015, 10:23:49 am
This isn't a call for business as usual as Steve slips down from the Godwin line, but a recognition that there is more to this than simply riding the most miles in a year.

And yet, might it be fair to say that Godwin's approach was more in line with Kurt's that it is with Steve's, using speed intervals and support on the road to keep the mileage high?
There seems to be an almost romantic assumption on the forum that Steve's approach is somehow more genuine, more authentic, somehow much closer in spirit to how the record was originally set in 1939, but apart from them both being English and riding on English roads, does the similarity really extend any further?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 24 December, 2015, 10:34:39 am
I wasn't making the comparison with Tommy's approach as such, more the connection with 'one of us'. Where 'us' is the stoic approach with a dash of self-sufficiency that characterises much of Audax. I realise this won't be the same for everyone, but it is why Steve's endeavour appeals to me.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 24 December, 2015, 10:41:14 am

I know there have been plenty of calls here and elsewhere for Steve to find an equivalent environment and adopt a similar strategy. But for me at least, part of the attraction of Steve's attempt is the approach it represents. Riding it audax style is something I can identify with. It represents a way of cycling I admire and is in contrast to a more 'professional' approach that Kurt's world represents. For me it's not a question of which is 'better' or more effective, but which has more emotional resonance.

This isn't a call for business as usual as Steve slips down from the Godwin line, but a recognition that there is more to this than simply riding the most miles in a year.

Riding it Audax style is how it started at the beginning of the year. Steve had a timetable to stay with hosts stretching months ahead. That fits in with the Audax ethos of declaring your routes ahead of doing them. That lasted for a while, but clearly wasn't going to work, mainly due to the data upload problem. The attempt then evolved into 'Groundhog Day', after the 'Marsh Gibbon' interlude, which was curtailed by the moped incident. Meanwhile Kurt kept on putting in the 200 mile+ days.

I'm all for emotional resonance. Perhaps we could have this expressed graphically. There's nothing 'professional' about Kurt's approach. We see End to Enders supported by friends and family in a motorhome on a regular basis, and it pales into insignificance compared with a serious amateur attempt on the 24 Hours.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 24 December, 2015, 10:45:41 am
I wasn't making the comparison with Tommy's approach as such, more the connection with 'one of us'. Where 'us' is the stoic approach with a dash of self-sufficiency that characterises much of Audax. I realise this won't be the same for everyone, but it is why Steve's endeavour appeals to me.
Sure, I understand that, I'm in the same camp myself really.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 24 December, 2015, 11:04:34 am
There's a camp that sees Zoe Williams' article in the Guardian on Feb 6th as the high point of the ride. The one that had Kurt 'surrounded' by a semi-pro team, but Steve on his own apart from an army of helpers. That was the 'correct' conclusion to draw, and the following 10 months are just a detail.
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/feb/06/bike-record-steve-abraham-longest-distance-cycle-year
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Byronius Maximus on 24 December, 2015, 11:59:34 am
Ah - thanks for the detective-work, Greenbank!  Yep, I probably shouldn't have assumed that the 'sound of crickets' was ongoing... (but, come to think of it, if LWaB made his offer on or before 11/12 and the thanks-but-no-thanks wasn't given back until 21/12, that's pretty shabby)

More assumptions! LWAB did say "after I had complied with their requests" but didn't say how long that took. Certainly not as simple as crickets. Plus, given the vitriol that the whole "No reply" thing caused, perhaps something a little stronger than "A small correction" might have ben in order. I've highlighted the most judgemental bit of your post 
Are you seriously confused as to why numerous people couldn't understand what your post meant, or are you just trying to take some kind of misplaced high ground here? Write something deliberately cryptic on an Internet forum and people *will not* understand what you mean.

I'm a bit of lurker on this thread and it seems to me that there have been good constructive comments on both sides (yes it is possible to have negative thoughts about how the attempt is going without having animosity towards Steve or the team, and I say this as someone who considers Steve a friend), but petty forum one-upmanship like this just derails what is a useful conversation to have.

Anyway, back to lurking.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 24 December, 2015, 12:04:15 pm
No, I'm not confused.  :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 24 December, 2015, 12:29:37 pm
Personally I think that people should stop saying that Steve should or must stop for his own good.   Unless you are inside his head and his body, unless you have up-to-date intimate detail of his thoughts and feelings, then it is only your place to speculate or offer opinion, just like sports pundits or political commentators.

After all, we all know best, don't we?

Please, stop bickering, stop petty point-scoring:  let Steve decide.  Be supportive or destructive if you wish but we all value our autonomy, our ability to make decisions for ourselves. 

There is no sense in my mind that there is any failure in Steve's attempt.   He's still riding nearly a year after starting in spite of an accident.   He's clocked up 100,000kms and counting.   It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 24 December, 2015, 12:37:17 pm
Well said Polar Bear :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 24 December, 2015, 12:48:41 pm
Lovely day today. Maybe time for a bike ride.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 24 December, 2015, 12:50:44 pm
Thank you, PB for that considered post.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 24 December, 2015, 01:01:32 pm
Personally I think that people should stop saying that Steve should or must stop for his own good.   Unless you are inside his head and his body, unless you have up-to-date intimate detail of his thoughts and feelings, then it is only your place to speculate or offer opinion, just like sports pundits or political commentators.

After all, we all know best, don't we?

Please, stop bickering, stop petty point-scoring:  let Steve decide.  Be supportive or destructive if you wish but we all value our autonomy, our ability to make decisions for ourselves. 

There is no sense in my mind that there is any failure in Steve's attempt.   He's still riding nearly a year after starting in spite of an accident.   He's clocked up 100,000kms and counting.   It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.

Of course it's Steve's decision as to what he does, and as I and many others have said, he has achieved an amazing amount over the year.

But it is also the decision of those who encourage him, with words, with deeds and with financial sponsorship, to decide whether - based on all the information available - they consider it wise to encourage him to carry on further.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 24 December, 2015, 01:04:27 pm
In my humble opinion, it is not about encouraging him in what he is doing, it is about supporting him in how he chooses to do it.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 24 December, 2015, 01:06:56 pm
It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.

if i was riding this (ha ha), there would be no word "attempt" in my vocabulary and would ask this section in the forum to be renamed. the word is extremely disempowering especially if used before the challenge even starts. nothing wrong with using this lukewarm word after the challenge if it doesn't pan out as expected.
when i embark on a challenge myself - i'm playing full out, in my mind it's a done deal before it starts. there's no point in attempting or trying - go for it, just do it!! :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 24 December, 2015, 01:10:00 pm
It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.

if i was riding this (ha ha), there would be no word "attempt" in my vocabulary and would ask this section in the forum to be renamed. the word is extremely disempowering especially if used before the challenge even starts. nothing wrong with using this lukewarm word after the challenge if it doesn't pan out as expected.
when i embark on a challenge myself - i'm playing full out, in my mind it's a done deal before it starts. there's no point in attempting or trying - go for it, just do it!! :thumbsup:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXsQAXx_ao0

 ;D

Take away the cheese and it ain't a bad vid imo.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 24 December, 2015, 01:17:15 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXsQAXx_ao0

 ;D

Take away the cheese though, and it ain't a bad vid imo.

:D yeah, good and funny, could be a part of the riders morning routine, with "210 miles" blinking every split second :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 24 December, 2015, 01:52:06 pm
It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.

if i was riding this (ha ha), there would be no word "attempt" in my vocabulary and would ask this section in the forum to be renamed. the word is extremely disempowering especially if used before the challenge even starts. nothing wrong with using this lukewarm word after the challenge if it doesn't pan out as expected.
when i embark on a challenge myself - i'm playing full out, in my mind it's a done deal before it starts. there's no point in attempting or trying - go for it, just do it!! :thumbsup:

Sure, but if you wanted to keep that up you wouldn't be reading (first hand) any Internet forums discussing your progress. You'd either have someone to cherry pick the positive comments from them, or you'd leave them well alone. No idea why anyone could expect a forum (no matter how friendly or supportive) to be 100% positive.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 24 December, 2015, 01:53:33 pm
:D yeah, good and funny

So is this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6zb3bvwBRM)...especially the first few minutes. Briliant!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 24 December, 2015, 01:56:46 pm

Of course it's Steve's decision as to what he does, and as I and many others have said, he has achieved an amazing amount over the year.

But it is also the decision of those who encourage him, with words, with deeds and with financial sponsorship, to decide whether - based on all the information available - they consider it wise to encourage him to carry on further.

not only that but it's the right of Steve's sponsors to question the wisdom of continuing the attempt once it becomes apparent that it is not going to be a serious World Record Attempt they are financing.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 24 December, 2015, 02:04:12 pm

Of course it's Steve's decision as to what he does, and as I and many others have said, he has achieved an amazing amount over the year.

But it is also the decision of those who encourage him, with words, with deeds and with financial sponsorship, to decide whether - based on all the information available - they consider it wise to encourage him to carry on further.

not only that but it's the right of Steve's sponsors to question the wisdom of continuing the attempt once it becomes apparent that it is not going to be a serious World Record Attempt they are financing.

It is.

And I'm sure Steve is savvy enough to assess the various comments and give them their appropriate weight.

Which might be none in some cases, as it should be because it's Steve's decision.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 24 December, 2015, 02:17:02 pm
It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.

if i was riding this (ha ha), there would be no word "attempt" in my vocabulary and would ask this section in the forum to be renamed. the word is extremely disempowering especially if used before the challenge even starts. nothing wrong with using this lukewarm word after the challenge if it doesn't pan out as expected.
when i embark on a challenge myself - i'm playing full out, in my mind it's a done deal before it starts. there's no point in attempting or trying - go for it, just do it!! :thumbsup:

That's an interesting comment. About a year ago I remarked, somewhere on this bit of the board, that Kurt was declaring in advance that he would "spend 2015 breaking TG's record". I've put it in quotes, but that may be a paraphrase. Whatever the correct wording, it left no doubt that that would be the outcome. I thought that "making and attempt" would be right, and anything else would be presumptive. I noticed that his celebratory photo of him breaking the 70,000 mile barrier was posted in the morning before he achieved it as well!

Someone, I forget who, suggested it was how Americans see their attempts as done and dusted and leaving no room for any doubt as to the outcome, compared to a much more reserved BRITISH attitude. I have always tried to be realistic in the likely outcomes of competitions and challenges I have been involved in, taking into consideration a number of possible outcomes, of which the desired one was the aim, but it was always possible for it to be overtaken by events.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 24 December, 2015, 02:23:39 pm
Personally I think that people should stop saying that Steve should or must stop for his own good.   Unless you are inside his head and his body, unless you have up-to-date intimate detail of his thoughts and feelings, then it is only your place to speculate or offer opinion, just like sports pundits or political commentators.

I wasn't suggesting it out of concern for Steve's health - I trust he has that in hand - but simply at a strategy level.  It's clear that he has no hope of beating Kurt on the original attempt, which means that if he takes the record, it will be in August.  On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 24 December, 2015, 02:50:27 pm
Someone, I forget who, suggested it was how Americans see their attempts, as done and dusted and leaving no room for any doubt as to the outcome, compared to a much more reserved BRITISH attitude. I have always tried to be realistic in the likely outcomes of competitions and challenges I have been involved in, taking into consideration a number of possible outcomes, of which the desired one was the aim, but it was always possible for it to be overtaken by events.

Blimey, what a complex subject this is. There's always a balance.
Positivity [yes we can] must surely be a good thing, but it can also be delusional sometimes.
As can negativity [no we can't] - on the one hand damaging and self-defeating but conversely sometimes bringing a sense of realistic balance into a situation gone wrong.

Thing about Kurt's attitude is this: it's far from hot air [to state the obvious], any positivity and self-belief has been heavily underpinned by a large dose of self-knowledge of his own capabilities and limitations. For example, he doesn't like riding in the dark, so he's doesn't do it [or as little as he can get away with].
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 24 December, 2015, 02:54:17 pm
 sometimes in life we dont have all the facts, but have a decision forced on us - so we have to make it.

But when you dont know all the facts about SOMEONE ELSE'S situation, it is very often wise to just shut the .... up.

[EDIT: cross-post with Von-Broad, with which this has no connection!]
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 24 December, 2015, 03:05:47 pm
Personally I think that people should stop saying that Steve should or must stop for his own good.   Unless you are inside his head and his body, unless you have up-to-date intimate detail of his thoughts and feelings, then it is only your place to speculate or offer opinion, just like sports pundits or political commentators.

I wasn't suggesting it out of concern for Steve's health - I trust he has that in hand - but simply at a strategy level.  It's clear that he has no hope of beating Kurt on the original attempt, which means that if he takes the record, it will be in August.  On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.

Well thought through Kim.   i would suggest that Steve knew,  we all knew, Kurt knew, that given Steve's accident, if all else went to plan then Kurt would take the record first.   Of course, and not wishing to wish ill on anybody, kurt hasn't crossed the line just yet.  I sincerely hope that he does and that Steve does at some point in August.

I don't know whether time off the bike would do Steve any good at all.   We might privately consider it to be the best for him but only Steve and those close to him know what drives him and have any idea how he is both physically and mentally.   

I only hope that Steve does what is best for Steve and that his sponsors and supporters continue to back him enabling him to try for the record.     
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 24 December, 2015, 03:08:05 pm
We have a pretty good idea that all is not right physically. Steve, when fit, is worth >200 miles a day. Every day. He would certainly not, by choice, have found himself well over 1700 miles behind schedule when, a couple of months ago, he appeared to be going so well.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 24 December, 2015, 03:11:44 pm
I don't know whether time off the bike would do Steve any good at all.

It would give him time to address strategy properly.  There aren't currently enough hours in the day for that.

But fair point about the mental side.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 24 December, 2015, 03:19:27 pm
But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year.

I'd suggest that that's the part of his strategy that could be improved.

This isn't an audax record, and he doesn't need to ride under audax conditions.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 24 December, 2015, 03:22:15 pm
I take your point Kim re strategy.   I would be completely surprised though if there is no ongoing management of strategy, tactics, his health and his equipment on an ongoing basis by his 'team' with Steve's continuous input.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 24 December, 2015, 03:27:03 pm
But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year.

I'd suggest that that's the part of his strategy that could be improved.

This isn't an audax record, and he doesn't need to ride under audax conditions.
Jeez - what the heck has that got to do with my post?

Is there some sort of Pavlovian condition on this thread:

Must Post Something Negative About Steve's Strategy - Preferably Something Mentioned Eleventy Times Before.

??

I was hoping to pack my ranting about negaitivty away for Xmas, but it's like fecking Whack-a-Mole on here ... :(
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 24 December, 2015, 03:40:04 pm
But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year.

I'd suggest that that's the part of his strategy that could be improved.

This isn't an audax record, and he doesn't need to ride under audax conditions.
Jeez - what the heck has that got to do with my post?

You're saying he's been here before.  I'm saying he doesn't have to be here at all, but as far as any of us can tell that's how he chose to approach the record, and isn't set up for a different approach.


Quote
Is there some sort of Pavlovian condition on this thread:

Must Post Something Negative About Steve's Strategy - Preferably Something Mentioned Eleventy Times Before.


Well, in the absence of actual information, what else is this thread going to be?  And, as far as I can tell, it's what sports fans do when they talk about sport.

I must confess to not having read all 40 pages.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 24 December, 2015, 03:41:07 pm
Very sensible NOT to read all 40 pages Kim.   :D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 24 December, 2015, 03:50:19 pm
It's fair to say that the vast majority of understanding of the demands that this type of endeavour place upon body and mind is purely theoretical.   Except of course, the experts in this field just now are in fact Steve and Kurt.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 24 December, 2015, 04:03:08 pm
Ah, Whack-a-mole.  Isn't that what some people confuse with mushy peas?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 24 December, 2015, 04:16:13 pm
On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.

Each day off the bike (now) means having to do more than a mile a day extra every day up until he finishes the second attempt in August 2016. A mile extra a day doesn't sound much but at this scale it's huge.

Anything more than 7 days off the bike (now) and, IMHO, this extra mileage burden becomes too much and he may as well start again completely which means the prospect of finishing in December 2016 (or even January 2017) which comes with the extra mental burden not least the physical challenge or going at this for nigh on 2 years.

It's a very tough decision to make and it all depends how quickly he thinks he will recover and be back to doing 210+ miles day in day out and how he can use what he has discovered in the last year to maximise his chances of success.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 24 December, 2015, 04:27:06 pm

Well, in the absence of actual information, what else is this thread going to be?  And, as far as I can tell, it's what sports fans do when they talk about sport.
I say, let's not lose sight of the fundamentals here:

We are several levels up the evolutionary ladder from mere sports fans    :smug:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 24 December, 2015, 04:32:47 pm
Ah, Whack-a-mole.  Isn't that what some people confuse with mushy peas?

That was Mandelson - and mentioning him Godwinises the thread. Oh, hang on...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 24 December, 2015, 04:36:58 pm
Ah, Whack-a-mole.  Isn't that what some people confuse with mushy peas?
no - that would be whackamol'ay.

Completely different.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 24 December, 2015, 04:44:07 pm
On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.

Each day off the bike (now) means having to do more than a mile a day extra every day up until he finishes the second attempt in August 2016. A mile extra a day doesn't sound much but at this scale it's huge.

I was suggesting that he abandons the second attempt, completes the first, takes some time out and starts a third attempt later.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 24 December, 2015, 04:45:43 pm
My opinion is that Steve will very soon have no chance of beating Kurt's record by August. He would have (again IMO) more chance if he squirrelled away the donations for a future attempt, I don't think any of his sponsors would disagree with that strategy if he chose to  follow it

Edit x post with Kim
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hellymedic on 24 December, 2015, 05:36:35 pm
989 posts and counting...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 24 December, 2015, 05:39:50 pm
990 now :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 24 December, 2015, 06:06:19 pm
I don't know whether time off the bike would do Steve any good at all.

It would give him time to address strategy properly.  There aren't currently enough hours in the day for that.

But fair point about the mental side.
There is a POV that you need a few days recovery off the bike to think straight about strategy & other Big Stuff.

But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year. Less miles but possibly less sleep too due to a FULL-TIME JOB! So he MIGHT know himself better than we do. We don't know.

That's the reason why people are focussing mostly on strategy: we know that Steve is athletically capable of this record.  It's also a reason why many people are saddened to see it slipping out of his grasp. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 24 December, 2015, 06:09:17 pm
Personally I think that people should stop saying that Steve should or must stop for his own good.   Unless you are inside his head and his body, unless you have up-to-date intimate detail of his thoughts and feelings, then it is only your place to speculate or offer opinion, just like sports pundits or political commentators.

I wasn't suggesting it out of concern for Steve's health - I trust he has that in hand - but simply at a strategy level.  It's clear that he has no hope of beating Kurt on the original attempt, which means that if he takes the record, it will be in August.  On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.

One advantage he does have, should he choose to make use of it, is that Kurt is (a) unlikely to beat Godwin's record by much, and more importantly, (b) is unlikely to try to defend it - and, come to that, neither (seriously) is anyone else. Might be worth considering - biding time and and all that.
If he regroups and piles resources into a future attempt, he basically steals the "10-day lag" advantage Kurt originally had back for himself.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 24 December, 2015, 06:20:42 pm
I don't know whether time off the bike would do Steve any good at all.

It would give him time to address strategy properly.  There aren't currently enough hours in the day for that.

But fair point about the mental side.
There is a POV that you need a few days recovery off the bike to think straight about strategy & other Big Stuff.

But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year. Less miles but possibly less sleep too due to a FULL-TIME JOB! So he MIGHT know himself better than we do. We don't know.

EDIT: what I meant here is that Steve may be very experienced in thinking strategy thru during days-n-days of 14-15 hours of low-intensity riding. He may, right now, be confident that he has considered all the main options, and has no need for extra hours in the day to address strategy.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 24 December, 2015, 06:35:25 pm
Steve started the year riding slowly and hasn't really got much faster (consistently) ever since. Taking a break, recovering properly and training for speed before a restart in Spring would get him back to cruising at 19 mph instead of the 15-16 mph that he stabilised on when he was fit. He can't do big daily miles at 15 mph because he runs out of hours, partially because he spends too many hours off the bike each day.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 24 December, 2015, 06:41:30 pm
EDIT: what I meant here is that Steve may be very experienced in thinking strategy thru during days-n-days of 14-15 hours of low-intensity riding. He may, right now, be confident that he has considered all the main options, and has no need for extra hours in the day to address strategy.

I don't doubt that.  I'd query whether his idea of what's a reasonable option might differ from what's actually a reasonable option, given that it's all going through the filter of his mysterious team.


Anyway, we're nearly at #1000.  Let's talk about gibbons.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 24 December, 2015, 06:48:47 pm
Gibbons? Tell me about this strange yet intriguing topic! I must have missed previous discussions °


° may contain a white lie
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 24 December, 2015, 09:49:50 pm
When I report to Idai on the s/o income for Dec and send the balance to steve's account - i shall ask him to take the time to read this thread . there is much on here not particularly relevant -- but i begin to pick up several strands of concern .. is Steve over committed to attempt 2- when it might be better to take a real break - and possibly get 100% raring to go for a 3rd and final attempt.  Why are the team so uncommunicative when supporters and donors are desperate for more info. Is there really any team advice and support or is Steve on his own.  I have also had queries about the finance position - in particular -- should attempt 2 be stopped at some time if it became obvious that the record was out of reach - would there be a surplus to go to charity
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 25 December, 2015, 12:01:55 am
Happy Christmas all
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: notlobgp14 on 25 December, 2015, 09:00:44 am
Regarding surplus funds.  I wouldn't consider the Record Attempt over until Steve were to be back at full fitness and discharged from Out Patients.  As far as I'm concerned he can spend my portion on proper food to rejuvenate himself.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jeff in Wales on 25 December, 2015, 09:27:24 am
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/dec/25/steve-abraham-cycling-year-in-the-saddle-for-record-chaser
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 25 December, 2015, 10:17:46 am
Post #1000. I doubt I will ever start another thread on here with that many replies!!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: flashpeddler on 25 December, 2015, 02:13:07 pm
I think Steve is simply amazing and a fantastic endurance athlete.  I believe Steve would have broken the record if it hadn't been for a selfish little scrote in Somerset.  Is it possible to recover from a bad break AND cycle 200+ miles a day for 20 months??  Surely, there's a point where the body says "enough".  Guess no one knows because no one's ever attempted it.  I fervently hope Steve doesn't risk any longer-term health issues by feeling pressurized to deliver for his supporters and sponsors.  I hold Steve in the highest regard and nothing will change that.  Ride safe one and all.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MacB on 25 December, 2015, 06:57:41 pm
A fascinating read and a truly remarkable endeavour, having followed this from January I have been surprised by the emotional 'rollercoaster' it has taken me on. From something I considered mildly interesting, through OMG when Steve was hit by the moped, to my latest serious concerns for his mental/physical wellbeing. It's been a heck of a ride and that's from a comfy chair behind a screen.

In the beginning I was fully behind Steve, quite anti Kurt and, beyond an understanding that it was a task way beyond me, totally clueless. In a sense I bought into the Steve hype, the romanticism of his approach and the individualism that underpinned it. I now think that I was just listening to heart over mind, the numbers aren't hard to run and his speed averages always nagged at me. Whereas Kurt has grown on me, partly the underdog aspect as he seemed so ill prepared. But he has adapted rapidly, overcome hurdles and I suspect his style of approach will be the template others look to in the future.

For me this was always primarily a mental challenge and I believed that was where Steve held the edge. I now worry that the very mental strength I considered his ace up the sleeve could now cause him harm.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 25 December, 2015, 09:41:11 pm
Quote from: Day 140...

From FaceBook

Here is a Christmas message and progress update from Steve Abraham - to all of you who've supported him through the year:

"As you are all probably aware, I have had a heavy loss of miles over the last 6 weeks or so.

That is down to a number of reasons.

Adaption to my new diet was very tough, but has all gone pretty much as expected.

My diet plan was modified so that I could take a few short cuts and also to account for my cycling demands. In theory I should not have been exercising for my first 2 weeks of adaption, which is why I lost so much weight.

 My weight has been stable since my first week of adaption. My team and I took on the new diet for several reasons.

*Safeguarding my health so that I can keep going.

*Improving my performance (though that was not the main reason, it is a likelihood, even if only through speeding up my recovery, which I believe it could be doing).

*Practical reasons.

I was eating on the move during late summer and early autumn to save time. However, it wasn't working all that well because of the sheer volume of food I eat. It still takes time to prepare food to eat on the move and this was taking longer as the weather grew colder.

I could forsee spending as much time not moving as I did last winter. Once my new diet is in full flight I think I may be able to spend less time stopped in winter than I did last year, though this remains to be seen.

My new diet is well under way but not quite up to speed yet. I initially needed 4 big feeds a day and now only need 3.

Next step is to space out those feeds and I should also not need to eat as much for each feed, which will save even more time.

While my adaption was going on, there was also a lot of bad weather. Bad enough that trucks and busses were literally blown off the road!

My team and I anticipated the losses of Adaption for my new diet to be between 700-1000 miles. It was more like 1040, so considering the bad weather I would say we were pretty much spot on.

The next problem was my getting my stomach trouble, which hit the miles very hard. I never felt especially bad, except for one weekend, it just took it out of me as well as caused practical delays from toilet stops.

Tests were done at a private clinic and things seem to be on the up. Some results from my tests at the clinic are indicating that the new diet is improving my health and is working. I have felt much better in the last two days - and feel stronger.

I have been preparing myself for the tough winter ahead since September and now that my new diet is beginning to work and my tummy trouble seems to be going away, feel ready to take on winter with gusto.
 
With very nearly a year done I feel as if I have had a good warm up and ready to go. Thanks to my team for all of your hard work - and I include those who are no longer in the team.

I couldn't have done what I have without your help and support and I will never forget all that you have put in to help me even get started as well as keeping me going.

Also many thanks to the many people who have helped along the way by helping me get started as well as volunteering to help.

I also thank everyone who enjoys watching my progress and those who come out to cheer me along on the road.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all - and hope to see you on the road sometime next year.

Steve Abraham"


Wonderful post.   I hope some of you naysayers will read this and begin to understand.   Somehow I doubt it.

Roll on Steve.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 25 December, 2015, 10:01:18 pm
Understand what exactly? Steve makes many points.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 25 December, 2015, 10:50:43 pm
Steve is currently about 1800 miles behind Godwin's record. With 225 days left in his second attempt, Steve needs to exceed the 206 mile average daily distance by about 8 miles to match Tommy. Pretty much 214 miles need to be ridden every single day from now on.

Kurt looks likely to add about 1200 miles to Tommy's record. To match Kurt, Steve would need about 13 miles daily beyond Tommy's average. That is perilously close to averaging 220 miles every single day till the second attempt finishes.

Steve was barely able to consistently exceed 220 miles days at the height of Summer. He is currently dropping 1-2 Godwins a week and Winter hasn't started yet (flowers are blooming!). Assuming no more than 10 hours (total) a day off the bike to sleep, shower and shit (and fill water bottles, dress, eat, etc), Steve needs to average 15.7 mph (25.3 km/h) just to reach 220 miles, let alone exceed it.

Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 25 December, 2015, 11:06:09 pm
Steve is currently about 1800 miles behind Godwin's record. With 225 days left in his second attempt, Steve needs to exceed the 206 mile average daily distance by about 8 miles to match Tommy. Pretty much 214 miles need to be ridden every single day from now on.

Kurt looks likely to add about 1200 miles to Tommy's record. To match Kurt, Steve would need about 13 miles daily beyond Tommy's average. That is perilously close to averaging 220 miles every single day till the second attempt finishes.

Steve was barely able to consistently exceed 220 miles days at the height of Summer. He is currently dropping 1-2 Godwins a week and winter hasn't started yet (flowers are blooming!). Assuming no more than 10 hours (total) a day off the bike to sleep, shower and shit (and fill water bottles, dress, eat, etc), Steve needs to average 15.7 mph (25.3 km/h) just to reach 220 miles, let alone exceed it.

Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.

For arguments sake, let's say you're team chief and there was another crack at the record in the near future. What would you want, what would you change and how would you do it.

I don't dispute what you say, just curious as to what you would do and the changes you would make given that you say that Steve has the ability (which I don't doubt).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 12:17:36 am
Stop the second attempt at the end of the year, Steve to rest up and then train for speed through the rest of Winter at least. Once the numbers look good enough (relaxed flatland average around 19-20 mph), start a third attempt, probably in Spring. Use the down time to check out possible food and equipment changes and arrange the new support set up.

Alicia is the biggest advantage Kurt has had. She has kept him focused, studied the weather, sorted accommodation and so on. Every time Kurt has weakened mentally, she has adjusted the situation, arranged riding companions and brought him back on track. She has been (mostly) able to keep him riding, despite multiple efforts to destroy bikes.

Given that a fit Steve is almost as fast as Kurt, Steve needs to ride a little more time each day than Kurt does. Assume 7 hours sleep a night (can't afford any sleep deprivation) plus another 2 hours to shower, shit, dress and a sit down meal or 2. Allow up to another hour for traffic lights, pee stops, adding or stripping off clothes on the road, medical, etc. that leaves 14 hours each day that Steve can actually ride. If Steve had somebody to hand him up water and food without stopping or to hand him a rain jacket, warm clothing or a replacement bike, along with routes with minimal traffic lights/ stop signs and good use of tailwinds, that would allow him to achieve up to 250 miles in a day without losing sleep that kills distance the following day. RAAM riders brush their teeth while riding, not while they're stopped. Everything should be aimed at minimising the number of minutes that Steve is riding at less than 15 mph and ideally minimising time spent below 18 mph.

He should be eating solid food on the bike more and using things like Winter & Summer Training Fuels (developed for Hoppo's first RAAM) or other such drinks that suit his stomach to reduce the time spent stationary. Nuun is good hydration but not enough by itself.

Plugging into a headwind all day is counterproductive. No more than an hour at a time into the wind. If Steve wants to ride laps around a fixed base (Milton Keynes?), pay somebody to look after the home base - clean, prepare and hand up food and bottles, wash and periodically disinfect clothing. Home help on Steve's team (Lesley) has been wonderful but she has plenty of other demands on her time and that can't be ideal for Lesley or Steve. The bike maintenance aspect has mostly worked too. Currently Steve spends a lot of time stopped in Milton Keynes. How much of that is doing stuff that somebody else can do while he is on the bike?

Otherwise you are looking at a motorhome approach like Kurt or at least a motorised approach, to chase the combination of tailwinds and fast flat roads. If so, you want 1 or 2 people available every couple of hours whenever Steve is awake. That is a lot to ask of volunteers. Driving Steve upwind should occur EVERY time there is a consistent wind but daylight hours shouldn't be wasted in a vehicle. That pretty much means driving across the country in the evening while Steve eats/ sleeps, otherwise Steve runs out of England before the next day's ride finishes.

In contrast to Alicia and Kurt, Steve's team has discouraged anybody from riding with him. Steve is hard as nails mentally but riding with others not only helps instantaneous speed but maintains the rider's focus and enthusiasm. It also makes it easier to find out about little niggles (e,g, medical or equipment) and take steps to fix them early. That works best with traffic-free/ traffic-light laps of a flat circuit with a fast surface.

Steve's wheels, tyres and aero position are already pretty good. There aren't many gains to be made there. A lighter bike would help in the hills but the idea is avoid them completely anyway. There isn't much aero advantage from a different bike frame at less than 20 mph.

I think Steve carries too much stuff on the bike all the time, mostly because he doesn't count on anybody's support all day. If Steve has access to everything he could possibly need every 2 hours or less (just call), he doesn't need to carry it with him. That is a significant difference from his current approach.

Steve needs to do interviews only while he is riding, either by phone or with somebody on a bicycle or motorcycle beside him.

The team needs to be small but able to replace people during the attempt. A year is a long time for anybody to commit to supporting Steve and circumstances change. At least one person on the team should talk with Steve each day and should look for what he isn't saying, not just what he does say.

Steve's performance needs to be closely monitored and appropriate adjustments made without delay, otherwise deficits grow quickly. There should be daily or at least weekly updates on what is happening.

Just some thoughts late at night. There are a lot of possibilities to optimise this rough outline but basically it is an extension of how HK and I supported Steve through 3 x 24hr TTs, modified by HK's experience of fitting high annual mileage targets around life and work, which leads to a 'minimise wasted time' approach.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 26 December, 2015, 12:21:46 am
I agree with all that, but am looking forward to being proved wrong by Steve and his team.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jacamo on 26 December, 2015, 06:53:50 am
Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.

That depends on what record he is actually chasing at the moment... Besting Kurt is virtually impossible at this point, being first to 100k miles is not. I can think of no other sane reason for Steve to continue past Jan 1st.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andrew531 on 26 December, 2015, 07:47:53 am
Who would ratify the 100k mile record?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 26 December, 2015, 08:33:07 am
^^^^ That is a good summary, LWAB. I agree with it all apart from potential aero gains. 

Aero does matter at Steve's speeds and his position, his bars and his head, are extremely high. He is leaving miles on the table by not getting more aero. Of course it's a trade-off between what is comfortable and what is fast, but, with the right stretching programme, improvements can be accommodated, and they can be made gradually, and backed off if need be.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ivo on 26 December, 2015, 09:05:10 am
^^^^ That is a good summary, LWAB. I agree with it all apart from potential aero gains. 

Aero does matter a Steve's speeds and his position, his bars and his head, are extremely high. He is leaving miles on the table by not getting more aero. Of course it's a trade-off between what is comfortable and what is fast, but, with the right stretching programme, improvements can be accommodated, and they can be made gradually, and backed off if need be.

Frank, it's not only stretching. When the years progress your body gets damaged, either through work or through sports. Don't forget that Steve didn't have an office job. Doing manual labour or labour where a lot of lifting is involved will inevitably damage your back or your shoulders. This will impair your ability to sit low on your bike. If you still do it, you're bound to get injuries. In this regard, Kurt has a major advantage, having done office work for most of the decades before his attempt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 26 December, 2015, 09:32:44 am
Do you know that is the case?  I've never discussed with Steve why his position is so high and he may well have an old injury.  Even so, I'd be surprised if he couldn't improve on it with the right advice and adaptation programme.  In my experience, physios always go on about how bad it is for your back to sit at a computer all day. 

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ivo on 26 December, 2015, 09:38:26 am
Do you know that is the case?  I've never discussed with Steve why his position is so high and he may well have an old injury.  Even so, I'd be surprised if he couldn't improve on it with the right advice and adaptation programme.  In my experience, physios always go on about how bad it is for your back to sit at a computer all day.

I don't know about Steve but I know my limitations regarding position due to 20 years of non computer work. Now I work with a computer during 2 years and I've had no new issues. I feel that my body is suffering less damaged due to the computer work as due to physical work. Even a good level physio (of one of the national speedskating teams) could offer not much help for my shoulder problem, about half the work force of my old work had shoulder issues.
I know that at my old work I never had to take a day off due to a sporting issue but several weeks in total due to work induced injuries.
Since I know that warehouse work usually involves a lot of reaching and lifting there should be some level of damage to Steve's body due to this. How big this level is I don't know.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 26 December, 2015, 09:49:26 am
Understand what exactly? Steve makes many points.

Exactly.   Steve makes many good points.

Understand then that there is proactive work going on in the background, that there is a plan.   Steve has strategically changed his diet to help with his shot at the record to increase his moving time over winter and the mileage 'shortfall' was expected, planned in, and therefore nothing for them to get overly exercised about.

Seems to me like Steve and the Team have it all in hand.   

As for what he should do about his bike or his riding position: I am sure that Steve and the team have that in hand too.   I recall that Steve spent a good deal of time getting the bike setup spot on for him before he set out on this quest. 

I'm sure that many will disagree of course...   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 26 December, 2015, 09:54:45 am
I agree with Kim.

The part of LWABs post I would most like to see Steve adopt is company on the road. Were he to accept help from an experienced group of riders to knock out 250 every Saturday for example he could focus on matching Kurt's average the rest of the week.

What is the best flatwood park equivalent anywhere in the UK? 11km loop, among trees, very good traffic free surface and 4m climb per lap.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ivo on 26 December, 2015, 09:58:04 am
As for what he should do about his bike or his riding position: I am sure that Steve and the team have that in hand too.   I recall that Steve spent a good deal of time getting the bike setup spot on for him before he set out on this quest. 

I'm sure that many will disagree of course...   

The point is that the ideal position for a year is different from the ideal position for a 24 which again is different as the ideal position for the track pursuit.
Many years ago when I was still doing silly things like 24 hour speedskating on a track I met Marnix ten Kortenaar during one of these 24 hour races. He advised me to sit deeper. I replied to him that this would be good for a 5k race but not for a 24 hour race. He nearly fell out of his skates but agreed that the ideal position would be different for each distance.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 26 December, 2015, 10:04:04 am
True; and the ideal position a year ago will be different from what it will be now, after having ridden 60,000 miles and got a year older!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 26 December, 2015, 10:06:38 am
And what evidence do we have that Steve's riding position is not changing at all?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 10:06:38 am
As I said, a rough outline and very much subject to improvements. Tweaking Steve's position for aero advantage may fit in there.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 26 December, 2015, 10:08:24 am
A thoughtful summary by LWaB.  Personally I see another advantage Kurt has - when riding with a tailwind, he's no so often at risk of running out of land in his chosen direction. As our prevailing winds are south westerly, Steve (when riding form MK) regularly has to turn at Cromer. Not ideal, but a limitation of UK geography.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Whitedown Man on 26 December, 2015, 10:08:51 am
What is the best flatwood park equivalent anywhere in the UK? 11km loop, among trees, very good traffic free surface and 4m climb per lap.

Richmond Park?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 10:13:30 am
Too hilly
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 26 December, 2015, 10:19:19 am
ISTM that another advantage Kurt has is being able to put a few thousand miles of latitude between  his summer and winter riding bases.  Steve could do good mileage in the summer but the winter has slowed him down - which isn't a problem that Kurt has.  Renting a winter base in e.g. Spain and spending at least November-Feb down there would be a big gain IMO, and one I'd happily donate to support.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 26 December, 2015, 10:20:27 am
Understand what exactly? Steve makes many points.

Exactly.   Steve makes many good points.

Understand then that there is proactive work going on in the background, that there is a plan.   Steve has strategically changed his diet to help with his shot at the record to increase his moving time over winter and the mileage 'shortfall' was expected, planned in, and therefore nothing for them to get overly exercised about.

Seems to me like Steve and the Team have it all in hand.   

As for what he should do about his bike or his riding position: I am sure that Steve and the team have that in hand too.   I recall that Steve spent a good deal of time getting the bike setup spot on for him before he set out on this quest. 

I'm sure that many will disagree of course...   

Yes, me for one. If this is an attempt where everything is going to plan and is all in hand, I'd hate to see what you'd regard as one that is falling apart!

Don't get me wrong, Steve has achieved amazing things and I am full of admiration for his determination, guts (no, that's not ironic!), and persistence. But 'planning' to lose 1000 miles when you're already struggling to make the average daily distance required seems, at the least, a little odd. I appreciate that Steve's diet needed attention, for reasons that aren't entirely clear but may be guessed at, but this seems a very expensive way to go about it.

I think many of us commenting here are seeing some parallels with Miles' attempts, in that the daily mileage achieved is short of what's needed but the participant and their closest allies are insisting that everything's ok. It's patently not ok, and those of us who are wishing it was ok and would like to see it returning to being ok aren't seeing how it's going to become ok - and every day that the mileage falls short increases the mileage required and the doubts that it can be achieved.

None of that is a personal comment on Steve; it's observation coupled with some rational extrapolation based on what Steve has demonstrated over the last year that he can achieve. The evidence suggests that a successful conclusion is now unlikely, and that therefore - if the target is the HAM'R (or at least Godwin's 75000 miles) - something else needs to change. If we had seen Steve regularly and consistently put down repeated 220-mile days at some point in the year, and could see a rapid return to that form coming back, then we could remain confident in his ability to pull this back - not to mention wondering in awe what 'could have been', had he not suffered the setbacks he has. But he hasn't done that. Steve's best run has seen him at or around daily Godwins, and therefore, even if the diet and the weather allow him to return to that best demonstrated form, the record is out of reach.

That is why I agree with the sentiments expressed above by Kim and others that this attempt should end on December 31st, a great deal of pride and satisfaction taken in what has been achieved under very trying circumstances, and a return to the drawing-board to plan (if he can face it) a fresh attempt in 2017 taking all this accumulated experience into account.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 26 December, 2015, 10:37:37 am
That's the point. It's not a binary position. It is perfectly possible be very supportive of Steve but also aware that things aren't going according to plan.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 26 December, 2015, 11:32:56 am
What is the best flatwood park equivalent anywhere in the UK? 11km loop, among trees, very good traffic free surface and 4m climb per lap.

Richmond Park?

You're not going to get everything but a good starting point would be to look at time trial courses.
For example, these are all 10-15 mile circuits which are ok from a traffic point of view most of the time:
the A31 near Farnham which is decently quick, mostly dual carriageway and with moderate traffic. 
The A4, between maidenhead and reading
The A4 between reading and thatcham
The Fifield circuit - c.10 miles on reasonably flat, quiet back roads near Windsor

There are plenty of others; I'm most familiar with the London West district courses, but there are more nearer to Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 26 December, 2015, 11:54:12 am
Too hilly



And far too busy plus 20mph max I believe
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: marcusjb on 26 December, 2015, 12:13:05 pm
What is the best flatwood park equivalent anywhere in the UK? 11km loop, among trees, very good traffic free surface and 4m climb per lap.

Richmond Park?

He can draft cycle_dr1 from April onwards.

Always a bed here if needed. 6 minutes cycle to the star and garter gate.

It is too busy during the day, but once the gates are locked, you can make some fast loops as long as you miss out the Robin Hood gate to/from Kingston gate section as that has a tough little climb in either direction.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: chrisbainbridge on 26 December, 2015, 01:44:44 pm
What about the mersey 24 hr circuits?  are they too hilly?   I would have thought there would be lots of people who would be willing to spend one day a week or fortnight or month doing circuits up there either in echelon or whatever to give Steve protection.  To double your energy expenditure because you are u willing to ride in a group seems crazy.


We have seen a lot of posts that only Steve knows how to ride this challenge.

I think this conflates two operate things.

Only Steve and Kurt know what it feels like mentally and physically to do the riding on this scale.

Steve and Kurt are not the only people who noe how a year challenge should be ridden.  Chris Froome knows what it feels like to ride the TdF but he doesn't really know "how" to ride the TdF and it is quite clear that Brailsford, et al are the people who control the day to day and strategic stuff.

I had assumed that the team around Steve were running the show with input from Steve, very much as we have seen Alicia telling kurt where to ride, etc.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 26 December, 2015, 02:07:25 pm
What about the mersey 24 hr circuits?  are they too hilly?   I would have thought there would be lots of people who would be willing to spend one day a week or fortnight or month doing circuits up there either in echelon or whatever to give Steve protection.  To double your energy expenditure because you are u willing to ride in a group seems crazy.


We have seen a lot of posts that only Steve knows how to ride this challenge.

I think this conflates two operate things.

Only Steve and Kurt know what it feels like mentally and physically to do the riding on this scale.

Steve and Kurt are not the only people who noe how a year challenge should be ridden.  Chris Froome knows what it feels like to ride the TdF but he doesn't really know "how" to ride the TdF and it is quite clear that Brailsford, et al are the people who control the day to day and strategic stuff.

I had assumed that the team around Steve were running the show with input from Steve, very much as we have seen Alicia telling kurt where to ride, etc.

That's a good point, I recall reading about the team behind Jure Robic - RAAM legend who unfortunately has passed away after a RTC.

What stunned me was that the Jure had very little input regarding the strategic elements of how to go about completing a bike race. His job was to ride the bike - end of. Strategy, nutrition, mechanicals, all the other stuff would fall to other members of his team. The only thing he would need to worry about would be riding his bike. He'd be monitored and if he started to fall behind pace his team would make him stop and make the neccessary adjustments.

I don't think the team has had much input from what I've seen, what I have seen is pretty much ''Steve knows best.'' and that is pretty much that.
But sometimes this is counter productive, the day before he had his RTC where he done 60 miles into a head wind taking 7 hours is one such example.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 26 December, 2015, 02:53:03 pm
Jure Robič was a serving older in the Slovenian army, it was his job to project the image of his country, and its armed forces, as tough and resilient. It worked, he was one of the most famous Slovenes.

Steve has represented Audax in a similar way. But Audax is lots of different things. It can be a training ground for Jure Robič wannabes, and that's probably the eaisest image to sell. To others it's a community which doesn't value any individual achievement above any other. The supportive power of the collective enables members to reach inside themselves for the exceptional.

As an athletic contest the result is pretty clear, unforeseens aside. On the other side of the coin it's the support that's been given to Steve that's important, and that continuing to support Steve in the face of not achieving the record is more virtuous than if he'd beaten the record. The problem with that view is that it doesn't have an end point. It can accommodate any number of 'restarts'. But each restart will bring in less support, which enhances the virtue of those still contributing I suppose.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 26 December, 2015, 03:06:04 pm
Quote
But sometimes this is counter productive, the day before he had his RTC where he done 60 miles into a head wind taking 7 hours is one such example.

the whole ride that day was into the wind, 212 miles, starting at 6am and ending around 3am at under 13mph
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 26 December, 2015, 03:16:20 pm
Some airfields have perimeter roads.  These tend to be flat as airfields tend to be built on plains. Those might offer Steve a traffic free loop of reasonable length, if a suitable one can be found and the airfield owner consents.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 26 December, 2015, 03:30:35 pm
...
I don't think the team has had much input from what I've seen, what I have seen is pretty much ''Steve knows best.'' and that is pretty much that.
...

Really?   The basis of your arguments, your pontificating, your armchair expertise comes down to the fact that because you don't see it then it simply doesn't happen?   

Thought-provoking insight.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 03:37:45 pm
Have you read Fidgetbuzz's contributions?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 26 December, 2015, 03:43:12 pm
^^^^^^^ the mersey roads circuits would be another good example, that Steve is very familiar with.

Another advantage with using time trialling courses is that virtually all ride faster with a bit of wind from the right direction than with no wind at all. The right direction varies by course. For example, I know that the A31 course I mentioned earlier is fastest with a moderate north or east wind, but slow with a screaming south-westerly. 

Other courses are different, so one can be picked to suit the day. All this information is known to the time trialling community.

^^^good thought, but airfields are often windy!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 26 December, 2015, 03:45:19 pm
Quote
But sometimes this is counter productive, the day before he had his RTC where he done 60 miles into a head wind taking 7 hours is one such example.

the whole ride that day was into the wind, 212 miles, starting at 6am and ending around 3am at under 13mph

In strategic terms it was Charge of the Light Brigade stuff
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jurek on 26 December, 2015, 03:51:29 pm
Some airfields have perimeter roads.  These tend to be flat as airfields tend to be built on plains. Those might offer Steve a traffic free loop of reasonable length, if a suitable one can be found and the airfield owner consents.
Good call.
The Science Museum owns Wroughton Airfield, just to the south of Swindon.
It has a perimeter road a little proud of 3 miles.
It isn't pancake flat, but it isn't far off it.
Nothing much (other than Swindon Model Aircraft Club) takes off or lands there these days - the runways aren't in particularly good condition, and there are few other facilities which would allow take-off and landing.
I can't help but wonder whether given the right 'scientific angle / record-breaking' approach, that their PR machine would welcome having a such a long-standing record broken on their site......
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 26 December, 2015, 04:02:11 pm
Have you read Fidgetbuzz's contributions?

I have.  He makes some very good and well thought through points - he's not just bouncing up and down on the sofa screaming at the computer.   He even suggests that the team should consider stuff posted here and sift out the good stuff, note the good stuff, not all the chaff in here, then run it past Steve.   Exactly the way to manage the challenge.   There is no reason to think that the team are not doing that anyway even though we don't know this.   

I have managed multi-million pound projects running over a number of years.   You start with a plan, you keep fully abreast of the risks and issues, then you keep a close eye on these as the project progresses.   As new risks and issues appear you take them on board and continue to plan and manage.   Just because we cannot see Steve and his team doing this doesn't mean that it is not happening.   In fact, clearly it is as they decided to go for the dietary change and they clearly, form the facebook post, worked out the risks and issues with that.   

I don't see how they can sate the appetites of all and sundry without a full time PR role.   Perhaps that is a thought to be put to the team and to Steve? 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 26 December, 2015, 04:16:48 pm
Have you read Fidgetbuzz's contributions?

I have.  He makes some very good and well thought through points - he's not just bouncing up and down on the sofa screaming at the computer.   He even suggests that the team should consider stuff posted here and sift out the good stuff, note the good stuff, not all the chaff in here, then run it past Steve.   Exactly the way to manage the challenge.   There is no reason to think that the team are not doing that anyway even though we don't know this.   

I have managed multi-million pound projects running over a number of years.   You start with a plan, you keep fully abreast of the risks and issues, then you keep a close eye on these as the project progresses.   As new risks and issues appear you take them on board and continue to plan and manage.   Just because we cannot see Steve and his team doing this doesn't mean that it is not happening.   In fact, clearly it is as they decided to go for the dietary change and they clearly, form the facebook post, worked out the risks and issues with that.   

I don't see how they can sate the appetites of all and sundry without a full time PR role.   Perhaps that is a thought to be put to the team and to Steve?

Oh dear...I'll remember the above if this attempt should fail.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 26 December, 2015, 04:29:08 pm
Oh dear.   How sad.

Why would I expect anything less from you?   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 26 December, 2015, 04:34:40 pm
Apologies I forget, you've managed multi-million pound projects and I'm just someone who jumps up and down on the sofa screaming at the computer. ::-)

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 04:52:55 pm
Look at Steve's website. It has 2 PR people listed. How is Steve's PR going?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 26 December, 2015, 04:57:11 pm
Apologies I forget, you've managed multi-million pound projects and I'm just someone who jumps up and down on the sofa screaming at the computer. ::-)

What a truly bizarre set of posts.   

Look at Steve's website. It has 2 PR people listed. How is Steve's PR going?

Indeed but how much time do they have to do PR and what is the current PR policy?   Clearly people want more information but that takes time and effort.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 05:25:25 pm
The first attempt was pretty much at a critical point when he got knocked off. He was up on his schedule but behind the daily average required to match Tommy. Steve's plan called for further increasing his daily distance but Steve couldn't ride any more hours in the day and his average speed was well below what he had expected to do since the beginning of the year.

Even after breaking an ankle, Steve was confident that he could recover the deficit. Time has shown that he'll fall well over 10,000 miles short on the first attempt. Continuing on with the first attempt simply ground Steve into the dirt and it compromised the second attempt.

His second attempt has been characterised by fairly low average speeds (except in ideal conditions) and a lack of consistency. I believe this is a result of what occurred between the crash and the restart, combined with unfocused team strategy and tactics through most of the year. Steve has gone beyond the point where he can match Tommy, let alone Kurt. The numbers required simply don't add up.

Steve is immensely determined but he doesn't always know best. It appears that the remaining team members may have the same problem.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 26 December, 2015, 05:36:03 pm
It's Christmas and I'm sure Steve asked Satan Santa for some people carrying axes to grind them. He's certainly got them, even if he didn't ask. Well done LMT and LWAB you embody the Spirit of Christmas!  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 26 December, 2015, 05:39:02 pm
Some airfields have perimeter roads.  These tend to be flat as airfields tend to be built on plains. Those might offer Steve a traffic free loop of reasonable length, if a suitable one can be found and the airfield owner consents.
Good call.
The Science Museum owns Wroughton Airfield, just to the south of Swindon.
It has a perimeter road a little proud of 3 miles.
It isn't pancake flat, but it isn't far off it.
Nothing much (other than Swindon Model Aircraft Club) takes off or lands there these days - the runways aren't in particularly good condition, and there are few other facilities which would allow take-off and landing.
I can't help but wonder whether given the right 'scientific angle / record-breaking' approach, that their PR machine would welcome having a such a long-standing record broken on their site......

Castle Combe circuit (near Chippenham, Wilts) isn't heavily used for motorised stuffs, IIRC, as the locals have put in restrictions on noise.  Local, and not so local, cycling clubs can and do use it for not very much money.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 05:49:39 pm
Using an airfield perimeter road or a flat racing circuit is an excellent suggestion but the location would ideally have fast roads to get to it. That would rule out things like Richmond Park. Steve would only be likely to use such a circuit once a week or so and fast riders would mostly be prepared to ride with him on weekends only.

Jaded, run Steve's numbers yourself and see what conclusion you come to. Grinding Steve further into the dirt won't achieve his aim of taking Tommy's record. Happy Boxing Day!

For the slow of thinking, only HK and I have crewed for Steve at 24hr TTs, we were amongst the first to sponsor Steve, we were the first to host him and I offered to crew for him full-time between Christmas and New Year. We continue to wish him all the best in achieving his aims and would be happy to help him get there. What he and his team is doing now will not let him do that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jurek on 26 December, 2015, 05:52:11 pm
Using an airfield perimeter road or a flat racing circuit is an excellent suggestion but the location would ideally have fast roads to get to it. That would rule out things like Richmond Park. Steve would only be likely to use such a circuit once a week or so and fast riders would mostly be prepared to ride with him on weekends only.

Jaded, run Steve's numbers yourself and see what conclusion you come to. Further grinding Steve into the dirt won't achieve his aim of taking Tommy's record. Happy Boxing Day!
RAF Wroughton dangles from one of the tributaries of the A4.
FWIW Accommodation in the immediate area is (at best) pants IME (I spent months working at RAF Wroughton).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 26 December, 2015, 05:53:24 pm
Silverstone perhaps.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: drgannet on 26 December, 2015, 06:05:28 pm
Steve is currently about 1800 miles behind Godwin's record. With 225 days left in his second attempt, Steve needs to exceed the 206 mile average daily distance by about 8 miles to match Tommy. Pretty much 214 miles need to be ridden every single day from now on.

Kurt looks likely to add about 1200 miles to Tommy's record. To match Kurt, Steve would need about 13 miles daily beyond Tommy's average. That is perilously close to averaging 220 miles every single day till the second attempt finishes.

Steve was barely able to consistently exceed 220 miles days at the height of Summer. He is currently dropping 1-2 Godwins a week and Winter hasn't started yet (flowers are blooming!). Assuming no more than 10 hours (total) a day off the bike to sleep, shower and shit (and fill water bottles, dress, eat, etc), Steve needs to average 15.7 mph (25.3 km/h) just to reach 220 miles, let alone exceed it.

Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.

The numbers look about right. To add some more, here are Steve's weekly average miles per day since the beginning of November:
W/b
26/10/2015   212
02/11/2015   196
09/11/2015   178
16/11/2015   182
23/11/2015   155
30/11/2015   162
07/12/2015   170
14/12/2015   132
21/12/2015   153
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 26 December, 2015, 06:10:45 pm

^^^good thought, but airfields are often windy!
Yes, and sadly almost all UK racing circuits are based on airfield sites (which is rather excellent for driver helicopter access!). Silverstone may be the windiest place on the planet.

So sadly this is another great idea that isnt NEARLY as straightforward as perhaps it seems. I'm not saying it's useless as an idea, just that it's not a slam-dunk.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 06:15:17 pm
Because the circuit would be quite short and the idea is ride in a fast group, headwinds are much less of a problem, as long as Steve doesn't do an upwind turn. That is the job of a big bloke who doesn't mind headwinds.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 26 December, 2015, 06:38:04 pm
Using an airfield perimeter road or a flat racing circuit is an excellent suggestion but the location would ideally have fast roads to get to it. That would rule out things like Richmond Park. Steve would only be likely to use such a circuit once a week or so and fast riders would mostly be prepared to ride with him on weekends only.
On a shortish circuit, riders could join and leave the fun at will.  It wouldn't just be limited to fast riders, since Steve would, I guess, only be wanting to attain an average of 17-18mph, which is easy for most club riders in a bunch to keep up for a few hours.  Many midweek club rides go out in many parts of the country - either flexible workers, students or retirees.

The only two potential drawbacks to company riding would be a marginally greater chance of catching communicable illness and a marginally greater chance of an 'off' from contact.  Both of these could be mitigated by (a) requesting that riders with sniffles keep away, and (b) insisting on a minimum standard of road etiquette (Steve to be the arbiter).

Flatness is not all that it's cracked up to be.  Having lived in Cambridge and commuted across the Fens to Ely for years, I know just how challenging a pan-flat route can be.  Much more important is a smooth road surface, and that whatever winds there are are not fought for hours on end.

It's a bit sad that some of you are so blinkered to the reality of what Steve's now up against.  He clearly massively overestimated his abilities when he initially scheduled for the Jan 15 attempt challenge, so, regrettably, I think that any confidence that he or his team project about limiting their perceived losses over the past few week needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 26 December, 2015, 06:51:51 pm
He clearly massively overestimated his abilities when he initially scheduled for the Jan 15 attempt challenge, so, regrettably, I think that any confidence that he or his team project about limiting their perceived losses over the past few week needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

That is the main worry.  Steve has never really come close to his own projected distances, and the discrepancy can't simply be explained by the moped incident or subsequent illnesses.  Even in the "good" times the speed (therefore distance) hasn't been high enough, and I haven't seen that absolutely basic and essential miscalculation addressed by anyone yet.  Until it is tackled head-on and an answer found then we must assume that the challenge will unfortunately fail. And to carry on as if there wasn't a basic flaw in the plan is tending towards the delusional (as was seen clearly with Miles).

Interesting to note that Kurt was far more modest in his projections but will come much closer to matching them in the execution.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 06:59:25 pm
Given that the circuit should be pretty much ideal conditions for covering ground, Steve should be cruising at 20 mph. Targeting 18 mph in ideal conditions means that Steve loses ground elsewhere.

While you are basically correct about group riding, you need a fairly strong rider to repeatedly pull into the wind at evens for several hours. An average tandem team would be another option (a fast one on flat ground would go too fast). Flat ground also makes it a lot easier for riders to draft than rolling hills.

Another thought: This morning, a couple of strong riders could have towed Steve into the headwind for 60-80km at 25+km/h, allowing Steve to have a much longer downwind run before running out of England.

A 10-20 mile flattish, well-surfaced circuit with a sheltered upwind side and an unprotected downwind leg would be perfect for Steve when he is riding alone. As suggested up-thread, do any TT courses fit the bill?

Steve has basically trained himself to ride slowly all year after starting the year overweight and unfit, expecting to ride into his normal condition. Instead, he just kept wearing himself down, due to Tommy's relentless daily mileage. That is why he needs to take a proper break (as should have happened after the crash) and train to regain his natural speed (he used to cruise at 20 mph unpaced) before a proper restart.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 26 December, 2015, 07:53:17 pm
I'm not sure "train" is what Steve did.  If I read it correctly he was relying on superior time management. That's a sound strategy as Steve lacks the top end speed endurance of Kurt.  Steve's Facebook message alludes to this still being the strategy.  It's still a sound strategy but faces a challenge of other factors out of his control frustrating that progress.  Hopefully either his luck turns (although luck is 90% preparation according to Mark Twain) or the changes he introduces counteracts them.

At the moment, it feels like Steve is the pilot of an airplane preparing for take off but the passengers are worried that the runway is going to run out before the wheels lift off the Tarmac.  Problem being the passengers are looking out of the windows with only a limited angle of view, and some are saying they know how to fly the plane, and others trust the experienced crew up front.  Insert Airplane joke here...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 26 December, 2015, 08:25:57 pm
Using an airfield perimeter road or a flat racing circuit is an excellent suggestion but the location would ideally have fast roads to get to it. That would rule out things like Richmond Park. Steve would only be likely to use such a circuit once a week or so and fast riders would mostly be prepared to ride with him on weekends only.

Jaded, run Steve's numbers yourself and see what conclusion you come to. Grinding Steve further into the dirt won't achieve his aim of taking Tommy's record. Happy Boxing Day!

For the slow of thinking, only HK and I have crewed for Steve at 24hr TTs, we were amongst the first to sponsor Steve, we were the first to host him and I offered to crew for him full-time between Christmas and New Year. We continue to wish him all the best in achieving his aims and would be happy to help him get there. What he and his team is doing now will not let him do that.

Ah, so you and HK are the team that will save Steve. I think I've hit it now.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 26 December, 2015, 08:27:49 pm
I'm not sure "train" is what Steve did.  If I read it correctly he was relying on superior time management. That's a sound strategy as Steve lacks the top end speed endurance of Kurt.  Steve's Facebook message alludes to this still being the strategy.  It's still a sound strategy but faces a challenge of other factors out of his control frustrating that progress.  Hopefully either his luck turns (although luck is 90% preparation according to Mark Twain) or the changes he introduces counteracts them.

At the moment, it feels like Steve is the pilot of an airplane preparing for take off but the passengers are worried that the runway is going to run out before the wheels lift off the Tarmac.  Problem being the passengers are looking out of the windows with only a limited angle of view, and some are saying they know how to fly the plane, and others trust the experienced crew up front.  Insert Airplane joke here...

:like:

(I do agree with LWAB that Steve could have got himself into better form on Dec 31st,  but;
- I think he expected to "ride himself into fitness". This is a VERY popular meme.
- He was very distracted in Autumn 2014.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing :P

)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 26 December, 2015, 08:49:48 pm
Insert Airplane joke here...

"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit reading internet forums."

The mathematics of the situation just don't lie, not after nearly 12 months, how the hell can they?
They speak their own story.

I was looking at the HAMR site the other day. They have a couple of fascinating graphs of their own.
This one which charts average speed is interesting...

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

See how closely alligned Kurt is to Godwin over the year.......and the misfortune of Steve falling away after the accident, and then the subsequent leveling out of performance.

But this one is also fascinating....particularly with reference to Godwin. See how he starts below both Kurt and Steve in the early months [the affects of winter no doubt], but then gets this really incredible surge over the summer months to bring his average right back up there....and then falls back again gradually towards the end [same thing I'm guessing].

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/byday.html

Nobody doubts Steve's resolve, staying power, tenacity, grit, steadfastness, call it what you will - he's in a league all on his own. Goodness knows those of us who have been even loosely on the fringes of the audax community have seen this over the years, and people have read of his endeavours here and elsewhere on the internet. It's rock solid and legendary. But this is not what the challenge is about, not solely any way. It's about miles, it's about speed, it's all about support and it's about getting enough recovery to continue day after day. And speed.

FWIW I agree with much of what LWAB has to say, especially this:

Alicia is the biggest advantage Kurt has had. She has kept him focused, studied the weather, sorted accommodation and so on. Every time Kurt has weakened mentally, she has adjusted the situation, arranged riding companions and brought him back on track. She has been (mostly) able to keep him riding, despite multiple efforts to destroy bikes.

Goodness knows how many supermarkets grocery stores she's seen the inside of either!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 26 December, 2015, 08:54:59 pm
Silverstone perhaps.

Silverstone would be ideal for Steve save for the fact that it's in near-constant use by people with a lot more money than he could ever hope to realise.  Most motor-racing circuits and vehicle test tracks are similarly encumbered.

The BHPC used to race on the kart circuit at Kimbolton, which also had noise-related restrictions on motorised racing, but even the least twiddly layout would probably be too restricted.  Plus some parish council busybody noticed all the cars parked at the track on a non-racing weekend and promptly got us banned in spite of the lack of screaming two-stroke racket making the very cabbages bow their heads in fear.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 26 December, 2015, 08:56:52 pm
I'm not sure "train" is what Steve did.  If I read it correctly he was relying on superior time management. That's a sound strategy as Steve lacks the top end speed endurance of Kurt.  Steve's Facebook message alludes to this still being the strategy.  It's still a sound strategy but faces a challenge of other factors out of his control frustrating that progress.  Hopefully either his luck turns (although luck is 90% preparation according to Mark Twain) or the changes he introduces counteracts them.

At the moment, it feels like Steve is the pilot of an airplane preparing

:like:

(I do agree with LWAB that Steve could have got himself into better form on Dec 31st,  but;
- I think he expected to "ride himself into fitness". This is a VERY popular meme.
- He was very distracted in Autumn 2014.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing :P

)





If I recall correctly he was busy from dawn till dusk on computer in the weeks leading up to the start and didn't have as much time as he'd wished to be as fit as intended
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 26 December, 2015, 09:03:18 pm
This would be such a valuable thread if it wasn't for the tiresome, pathetic posts from a few individuals.

You know who you are. Please shut up or fuck off. Unless you have something to contribute.

Sorry for the language folks.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 26 December, 2015, 09:48:20 pm
So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MacB on 26 December, 2015, 10:16:29 pm
So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?

perhaps, as far as I can glean the key ingredient, once you've excluded their superhuman aspects, is the ability to get enough rest and to fuel/refuel correctly. That both Steve and Kurt possess the mental fortitude doesn't seem to be in doubt. So then it just comes down to the maths and the physical, no matter how many times I run the numbers they are still awe inspiring. Taken at the most basic:-

77k miles in 365 days means an averaged 211 miles per day

If you could cycle non-stop for a year, no sleep, etc, etc, that's still 8.8mph required

So every hour off the bike pushes that mph requirement higher

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 26 December, 2015, 10:18:45 pm
And, sadly, Steve isn't going fast enough at the moment. 13 hours today and 160 miles. A huge achievement, but not enough.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 26 December, 2015, 10:21:31 pm
Quote from: Mr Larrington
Castle Combe circuit (near Chippenham, Wilts) isn't heavily used for motorised stuffs, IIRC, as the locals have put in restrictions on noise.  Local, and not so local, cycling clubs can and do use it for not very much money.
Good call also. Not flat from what I recall but not bad and sheltered from some wind direcetions.
Best I can offer is the Severn Vale flatlands such as Lee Fancourt's circuit. Quiet,flat and sheltered by a whole lotta Wales from some winds, a place to test F1 aerodynamics for free in others  :-\

ETA [rant thread]Grrrr, effing phone[/rant thread]

Another thought: This morning, a couple of strong riders could have towed Steve into the headwind for 60-80km at 25+km/h, allowing Steve to have a much longer downwind run before running out of England.
+1  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 26 December, 2015, 10:56:31 pm
So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?

I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.  It's the one aspect of Kurt's record that I get all UCI over. I do appreciate what Kurt has achieved and the devotion it took, but my own silly little worldview is that there should be a separate category for events that use a recumbent (even though in reality it would be difficult to "police").   :-X
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 26 December, 2015, 11:01:53 pm
So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?

I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.  It's the one aspect of Kurt's record that I get all UCI over. I do appreciate what Kurt has achieved and the devotion it took, but my own silly little worldview is that there should be a separate category for events that use a recumbent (even though in reality it would be difficult to "police").   :-X

Kurt never used a recumbent. Did he?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 26 December, 2015, 11:05:29 pm
I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.

News just in:  He already did.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 11:15:43 pm
Most unfaired recumbents aren't hugely faster than a good TT bike anyway.

Kurt regularly uses a highracer. Steve used a trike with the broken leg.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 26 December, 2015, 11:18:10 pm
Most unfaired recumbents aren't hugely faster than a good TT bike anyway.

But perhaps use less power (so less recovery needed) and are more suited for riding for hours on end?

But realistically, that's not something that can be usefully slotted into an in-progress attempt that's got almost no margin for error left.  Even if you could just /buy/ a recumbent (rather than the usual process of harassing dealers with more interesting things to do for months on end) and didn't waste too much time sorting out the bike fit[1], Steve isn't adapted to riding one, so would likely suffer a drop in performance for a while.



[1] Fewer critical parameters than an upwrong, but also less forgiving.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 11:21:47 pm
I don't know enough about this particular aspect to make a sensible comment.

I do know several folk who have transitioned from recumbents back to uprights for long brevets. If you only have a single (recumbent) riding position, you can't afford the slightest discomfort in that position.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 26 December, 2015, 11:24:12 pm
So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?

I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.  It's the one aspect of Kurt's record that I get all UCI over.

That's a shame because Steve doesn't feel the same way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qh6bmIbgyGM
[from about 3.25mins]

Although he enjoyed riding the Vortex, I can't see Steve being that interested in riding recumbent really.
I'd be confident that he can get up to speed riding what he's used to.

I get the feeling that Kurt rides the Dark Side for variety as much as anything else. I think his mileage is pretty much similar on either format.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 26 December, 2015, 11:31:15 pm


I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.  It's the one aspect of Kurt's record that I get all UCI over. I do appreciate what Kurt has achieved and the devotion it took, but my own silly little worldview is that there should be a separate category for events that use a recumbent (even though in reality it would be difficult to "police").   :-X
[/quote]





Plus 1
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 26 December, 2015, 11:32:16 pm
I don't know enough about this particular aspect to make a sensible comment.

Me neither, but received wisdom seems to be that the recumbent position is less conducive to cardiovascular performance, which limits your power compared to an upright (even though you may go faster due to aerodynamics).


Quote
I do know several folk who have transitioned from recumbents back to uprights for long brevets. If you only have a single (recumbent) riding position, you can't afford the slightest discomfort in that position.

Indeed.  I'd say that even if it's perfect ergonomically, keeping your body in exactly the same position for hours on end becomes uncomfortable.  When audax-style riding on a bent, I take the time to stop, stand up and stretch once an hour or so when there isn't a specific reason to stop.  That sort of thing adds up, but probably less than the aero advantage (or the harder to quantify different-shaped-bike advantage).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 26 December, 2015, 11:32:54 pm
Out of interest, how many of the naysayers have actually used recumbents?

(Not that I can comment; while I'm an experienced touring 'bent rider, I've never done more than a test ride on the sort of speed-oriented machine that we're discussing here.  Same goes for wedgies, for that matter.)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 26 December, 2015, 11:37:16 pm
Out of interest, how many of the naysayers have actually used recumbents?

I have. I found it harder on my quads and knees. It's harder to pedal in circles on a recumbent, I think.

Clearly it's worked for Kurt. There are other tradeoffs such as hand comfort, neck issues etc.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 26 December, 2015, 11:38:59 pm
Most unfaired recumbents aren't hugely faster than a good TT bike anyway.

Kurt regularly uses a highracer. Steve used a trike with the broken leg.

Yes they are, 180w will give a difference of about 3mph. And contrary to popular belief on a like for like basis they go up hills quicker as well. Only on a hill more than 8% will the upright bike make ground back - providing of course the upright bike is lighter.
 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 26 December, 2015, 11:41:37 pm
I must be using out-of-date recollections. Others know more about this than me.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 26 December, 2015, 11:45:24 pm
Out of interest, how many of the naysayers have actually used recumbents?

I have. I found it harder on my quads and knees. It's harder to pedal in circles on a recumbent, I think.

Quads certainly, but muscles adapt.  Knees depends on how you use the seat and gears.  Disagree about pedalling in circles.

Which raises the other important point - some people's preferred riding style is better suited to 'bents than others (which explains a lot of the marmite factor once you get past the basics, I think).  Not the sort of thing you want to work out during a record attempt.  (I don't count the one-legged triking, as that was performance limited by injury.)

Basically, I think a highracer is an excellent tool to have in the arsenal from the outset, but not something you can drop-in and reliably expect huge gains from.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 26 December, 2015, 11:51:08 pm
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.

And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-

F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)

Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.

Tests have shown that over 8%, the speed is to slow to take advantage of the aero advantage that riding a recumbent brings. But of course you make this up on the flats and going down hills.

With respect to Steve's attempt if he was to invest in a low racer or a M5 carbon high racer then headwinds would have a lesser bearing on his routing.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 26 December, 2015, 11:55:39 pm
Kurt has no problem powering a DF for days on end, that's where he's done the majority of his riding - we've all seen it on the Facebook videos. Are there stats that show how he's divided his time between the bikes?

I'd be interested to see what he has to say about his experiences of the DS, because from a distance it looks like he's used the bent almost like a recovery style of bike. I'm not aware of him piling on a huge advantage when he rides the recumbent, you've really got to be in the zone and fully accustomed to get the most out of them really, but he's clearly had a reason to have the Bacchetta in the fleet. Like I said, it's probably been for variety as much as anything.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 26 December, 2015, 11:59:28 pm
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.

And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-

F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)

Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.

Quite.

OOI, do you find your maximum power limited by the biomechanics?


My anecdata (no power meter, sadly) is that at 'audax pace' all bikes climb equally well (assuming equivalent weight, gearing and a non-trivial gradient).  But if I go to flat out puke-your-guts-out sprint mode, uprights get me to the asthma attack faster.


Anyway, we're going off-topic...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 27 December, 2015, 12:01:14 am
I'd be interested to see what he has to say about his experiences of the DS, because from a distance it looks like he's used the bent almost like a recovery style of bike. I'm not aware of him piling on a huge advantage when he rides the recumbent, you've really got to be in the zone and fully accustomed to get the most out of them really, but he's clearly had a reason to have the Bacchetta in the fleet. Like I said, it's probably been for variety as much as anything.

Seems like a sensible reason to me; stops hand/arm/neck/saddle problems eating into mileage.  Interestingly, Steve doesn't seem to have had many of those.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 27 December, 2015, 12:03:45 am
Steve has had enough adaption over the years to be more comfortable sitting on a bike than sitting on a couch. The Tour de France racers between the wars reputedly were similarly adapted.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 27 December, 2015, 12:10:46 am
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.

And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-

F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)

Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.

Quite.

OOI, do you find your maximum power limited by the biomechanics?


My anecdata (no power meter, sadly) is that at 'audax pace' all bikes climb equally well (assuming equivalent weight, gearing and a non-trivial gradient).  But if I go to flat out puke-your-guts-out sprint mode, uprights get me to the asthma attack faster.


Anyway, we're going off-topic...

We are going off topic, but it's one of interest especially to the DF riders out there who somehow think they are faster going up a hill.

In answer to your question, my max power is not limited by bio mechanics, because I ride a FWD-MBB system and can grip the bar and deliver power much in the same way as a sprinter hunched over the bars (using thier arms and lats) yanking on the bar as they sprint for the line.

Power data shows that peak power on the bent is 1258w and on the upright 1058w. However I've only done this test once on each platform out on the road for fun, it's not really something that I look to test purely because I'll never look to sprint up a hill - certainly not giving a max effort anyway.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 27 December, 2015, 12:21:33 am
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.

And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-

F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)

Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.

Tests have shown that over 8%, the speed is to slow to take advantage of the aero advantage that riding a recumbent brings. But of course you make this up on the flats and going down hills.

With respect to Steve's attempt if he was to invest in a low racer or a M5 carbon high racer then headwinds would have a lesser bearing on his routing.

You forgot the one about f = mg.  If a recumbent is heavier, it will go up hills slower. 

The 8% figure is spurious: the power lost to gravity and aero drag both scale with speed, not gradient.  Pa scales with the cube of speed, Pg scales linearly, hence why aero drag is unimportant going up any serious hill - and unless you're Chris Froome and can go up steep hills at speeds fast enough for that V3 to come into effect, that's probably going to be a lot less than 8%.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 27 December, 2015, 12:29:58 am
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.

And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-

F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)

Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.

Tests have shown that over 8%, the speed is to slow to take advantage of the aero advantage that riding a recumbent brings. But of course you make this up on the flats and going down hills.

With respect to Steve's attempt if he was to invest in a low racer or a M5 carbon high racer then headwinds would have a lesser bearing on his routing.

You forgot the one about f = mg.  If a recumbent is heavier, it will go up hills slower. 

The 8% figure is spurious: the power lost to gravity and aero drag both scale with speed, not gradient.  Pa scales with the cube of speed, Pg scales linearly, hence why aero drag is unimportant going up any serious hill - and unless you're Chris Froome and can go up steep hills at speeds fast enough for that V3 to come into effect, that's probably going to be a lot less than 8%.

The aero advantage for a bent is there upto a hill of about 8% grad. This has been tested many times, with papers published on it.

My own tests show that my recumbent with a power output of 350w goes up a hill with an average gradient of 6% 0.8kph quicker than my upright athe same power, and the recumbent is heavier by 2lbs.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 27 December, 2015, 12:33:23 am
You forgot the one about f = mg.  If a recumbent is heavier, it will go up hills slower.

Well obviously.  It's only reasonable to compare like for like, at least within the bounds achievable by practical engineering.  You can get some pretty light recumbents these days.

Similarly, you have to control for the rider (just using the same person isn't good enough, unless you measure power)


These are the usual reasons people think recumbents are slow at climbing; they're usually comparing heavy recumbents[1] with lighter uprights, or they're comparing weaker recumbent riders (who can keep up a decent pace on the flat because aerodynamics) with stronger upright riders.


[1] The overwhelming majority of 'bents you come across in the wild are tourers.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 27 December, 2015, 12:39:19 am
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.

And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-

F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)

Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.

Tests have shown that over 8%, the speed is to slow to take advantage of the aero advantage that riding a recumbent brings. But of course you make this up on the flats and going down hills.

With respect to Steve's attempt if he was to invest in a low racer or a M5 carbon high racer then headwinds would have a lesser bearing on his routing.

You forgot the one about f = mg.  If a recumbent is heavier, it will go up hills slower. 

The 8% figure is spurious: the power lost to gravity and aero drag both scale with speed, not gradient.  Pa scales with the cube of speed, Pg scales linearly, hence why aero drag is unimportant going up any serious hill - and unless you're Chris Froome and can go up steep hills at speeds fast enough for that V3 to come into effect, that's probably going to be a lot less than 8%.

The aero advantage for a bent is there upto a hill of about 8% grad. This has been tested many times, with papers published on it.

My own tests show that my recumbent with a power output of 350w goes up a hill with an average gradient of 6% 0.8kph quicker than my upright athe same power, and the recumbent is heavier by 2lbs.

No.  Aerodynamic drag is a function of speed.  The speed you can go up an 8% hill, and thus the ratio of power lost to drag and gravity, will depend on the rider.  Variation between riders is enough that 8% is a meaningless figure. 

Also, LWaB was talking about "a good TT bike".  When you did your tests, were you using a good TT bike?  What were your CdA values for your recumbent and your upright?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 27 December, 2015, 12:54:58 am
The aero advantage for a bent is there upto a hill of about 8% grad. This has been tested many times, with papers published on it.

i'd be interested to read at least a couple of these papers, as in my experience the real advantage of recumbent is going downhill. on a flat it's the same as riding an upright bike on tribars, and they are slower up the hills. it's probably an unfair comparison as my bikes were 7-8kg and recumbents at least 4kg heavier.
fwiw, i climb ~10% slower on a bike that's 5kg heavier.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 27 December, 2015, 01:01:13 am
You are missing the point I'm making, the speed that I go up a hill is such that the aero advantage outweighs any sort of disparity in weight between my recumbent and my upright. All the figures used are constants, - do the maths.

I've no idea what my Cda values are for my recumbent and upright, I've never worked them out. From what I've seen 180w gives me a 3mph advantage over my upright. A good TT bike would not be a whole lot better, and certainly would not be good for Steve's attempt imo given the such aggressive geometry when churing out such a large milage.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 27 December, 2015, 01:05:35 am
The aero advantage for a bent is there upto a hill of about 8% grad. This has been tested many times, with papers published on it.

i'd be interested to read at least a couple of these papers, as in my experience the real advantage of recumbent is going downhill. on a flat it's the same as riding an upright bike on tribars, and they are slower up the hills. it's probably an unfair comparison as my bikes were 7-8kg and recumbents at least 4kg heavier.
fwiw, i climb ~10% slower on a bike that's 5kg heavier.

All the need Zigzag is plug some figures into the equation that I posted a few posts ago, power, weight, drag it's all there.

An upright bike with tri bars will never be on par with a recumbent - certainly not one that is in the league of a M5 CHR, V20, an Encore or a Carbent.  TBH I'd piss over anyone on a tri bike.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 27 December, 2015, 01:13:43 am
Can the bike (recumbent vs upright) discussion please fuck off to another thread?

Ta.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 27 December, 2015, 07:46:42 am
I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.

News just in:  He already did.

On the restart? I know about the trike recumbent used whilst he nursed a broken ankle. And which I thought he packed away come August.  But I may be wrong.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 27 December, 2015, 08:16:04 am
I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.

News just in:  He already did.

On the restart? I know about the trike recumbent used whilst he nursed a broken ankle. And which I thought he packed away come August.  But I may be wrong.
Yes, that is my (unreliable) understanding too.

But if it turns out he only used the 1-legged* machine, I can say hand-on-heart that I would rate his Jan1st-Dec31st effort as more admirable than a proper mixed recumbent/DF attempt (as used by at least one rider on another continent).

Purely personal opinions, as there is no current official structure for such subtleties! This is the "Current THOUGHTS" thread :)


*I find it hard to believe that any 1-legged recumbent is as fast as a 2-legged upright.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 27 December, 2015, 08:31:11 am


On the restart? I know about the trike recumbent used whilst he nursed a broken ankle. And which I thought he packed away come August.  But I may be wrong.
[/quote]





I believe the Ice recumbent was returned to the company who had kindly lent it to Steve
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 27 December, 2015, 08:40:12 am
Because the circuit would be quite short and the idea is ride in a fast group, headwinds are much less of a problem, as long as Steve doesn't do an upwind turn. That is the job of a big bloke who doesn't mind headwinds.

It would be great to find a circuit and get half a dozen or so of us riding round with him at weekends, doing the sheltering.  And  I agree that an off-road circuit would make that a lot more pleasant.  But, a lot of the time, Steve would inevitably be riding on his own, so wind would be a factor.  Then, a decent on-road time trial circuit would always be quicker.  The assistance you get from being passed by a steady stream of traffic is typically 1-2mph.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 27 December, 2015, 08:49:35 am
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.

And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-

F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)

Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.

Tests have shown that over 8%, the speed is to slow to take advantage of the aero advantage that riding a recumbent brings. But of course you make this up on the flats and going down hills.

With respect to Steve's attempt if he was to invest in a low racer or a M5 carbon high racer then headwinds would have a lesser bearing on his routing.

You forgot the one about f = mg.  If a recumbent is heavier, it will go up hills slower. 

The 8% figure is spurious: the power lost to gravity and aero drag both scale with speed, not gradient.  Pa scales with the cube of speed, Pg scales linearly, hence why aero drag is unimportant going up any serious hill - and unless you're Chris Froome and can go up steep hills at speeds fast enough for that V3 to come into effect, that's probably going to be a lot less than 8%.

The aero advantage for a bent is there upto a hill of about 8% grad. This has been tested many times, with papers published on it.

My own tests show that my recumbent with a power output of 350w goes up a hill with an average gradient of 6% 0.8kph quicker than my upright athe same power, and the recumbent is heavier by 2lbs.

No.  Aerodynamic drag is a function of speed.  The speed you can go up an 8% hill, and thus the ratio of power lost to drag and gravity, will depend on the rider.  Variation between riders is enough that 8% is a meaningless figure. 

Also, LWaB was talking about "a good TT bike".  When you did your tests, were you using a good TT bike?  What were your CdA values for your recumbent and your upright?

But back to Steve - the comparison is not with a good TT bike with a fine-tuned aero position.  This suggests to me that Steve on a recumbent he was used to riding would not lose to Steve on the Sojourn on anything but the steepest climbs (which he shouldn't be doing in any case!).

Overall, an interesting discussion.  I'd conclude that Steve is clearly losing out by not having a recumbent in his armoury.  ISTR that he ruled it out on practical grounds (too long to adapt) rather than for ideological reasons.  But it should be something for serious consideration / preparation if there is a third attempt.  How long would a reasonable adaptation take? Say enought to allow him to use it for the odd half-day (when he was staying close to home)?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 27 December, 2015, 09:01:24 am
Steve has said in the past he doesn't like drafting. It puts too much pressure on both parties. No idea what his current thoughts are.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 27 December, 2015, 10:15:35 am
Steve has said in the past he doesn't like drafting. It puts too much pressure on both parties. No idea what his current thoughts are.
That is interesting because all my slowest 400km rides have been in groups riding the Arrow. Solo I have been much quicker. There again this is not a good comparison because I would not expect the group to slow when riding with Steve, as it does on the Arrow for a riding who is having a bad patch.

All the fastest rides I have done have been drafting and have been for shorter times. There is a mental strain with group riding as the concentration levels must be higher. The higher the speed the greater the concentration. It takes time to trust other riders - how close can I get to his wheel? Can I overlap to avoid braking? if he is twitchy I cannot. Starting to slow, when will he finish his turn? I can understand Steve's reluctance.

As for speed there is a balance here with recovery time. To get 8 hours sleep a night you need to be awake for 16, riding for thirteen and eating plus other stuff for about three means you need to ride at over 16mph average. That is a tough pattern, but I wonder if the sleeping can be reduced in the long term. We all go sleep light for a few days on long rides. Takes me a week to get over PBP/LEL, but the LEJoG where I did 120 miles a day I could have gone on forever. I think this was mainly because of sleep rather than physical tiredness.

I think sleep is very important and Steve needs to be a little faster to get enough. But all is not lost on the current attempt, if he can speed up.

BB 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 27 December, 2015, 10:32:22 am
To get the record on the restart, Steve needs to average about 220 miles per day, somewhat more than 15 mph for 14 hours every day till August. How many weeks has Steve averaged 220 daily miles in the past year?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 27 December, 2015, 10:53:58 am
To get the record on the restart, Steve needs to average about 220 miles per day, somewhat more than 15 mph for 14 hours every day till August. How many weeks has Steve averaged 220 daily miles in the past year?




Sadly almost none and unless he lightens his heavy saddle bag, speeds up all isn't good for breaking the record  (unless a 3rd go at it in the future ) but let us all hope the new diet kicks in real soon and vehicle transfers enable more wind assisted miles.  I cannot see him doing circuits of airfields and the like which are not close to home. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 27 December, 2015, 10:55:15 am
Steve has said in the past he doesn't like drafting. It puts too much pressure on both parties. No idea what his current thoughts are.

All the fastest rides I have done have been drafting and have been for shorter times. There is a mental strain with group riding as the concentration levels must be higher. The higher the speed the greater the concentration. It takes time to trust other riders - how close can I get to his wheel? Can I overlap to avoid braking? if he is twitchy I cannot. Starting to slow, when will he finish his turn? I can understand Steve's reluctance ...

...I think sleep is very important and Steve needs to be a little faster to get enough. But all is not lost on the current attempt, if he can speed up.

BB

Group riding is another skill that has to be learned, or adapted to.  Many, or most, audax riders who have not come via a club background or done road racing have never had to learn it so there is no reason to expect them to be good at it.  I recall Steve's reservations were about riding with people like that as he (rightly) feared that one second of lost concentration could bring his attempt crashing down with a broken collar bone.  But it is another thing he needs to reconsider if he wants to get his speed up.  It does take more concentration which does get tiring.  However, outside a race situation where lots of people are going full on and jostling for places, crashes are rare.

Never overlap wheels with anyone!  Once you do, you have given away your ability to steer and, if they don't do what you thought they would do, it would get nasty (correct technique to avoid braking is to give their arse a gentle push to maintain the gap)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 27 December, 2015, 11:11:00 am
Steve got on the road around 09:00 this morning, is averaging about 22 kph and has a lot of headwind to do. It won't be a 220 mile day today.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 27 December, 2015, 11:14:08 am
Never overlap wheels with anyone!  Once you do, you have given away your ability to steer and, if they don't do what you thought they would do, it would get nasty (correct technique to avoid braking is to give their arse a gentle push to maintain the gap)

<Stan's_Advocate>
Another mark in favour of recumbents - no wheel overlap when riding in a bunch :demon:
</Stan's_Advocate>

Of course this didn't stop my grate frend the late Hairy McSteve from smashing one of my rear lights with a pedal during the European Championship "road" race in 1992 :(
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 27 December, 2015, 11:55:38 am
Never overlap wheels with anyone!  Once you do, you have given away your ability to steer and, if they don't do what you thought they would do, it would get nasty (correct technique to avoid braking is to give their arse a gentle push to maintain the gap)

If you are in position to push you are wheel overlapping. It is done when there is a slowdown and you are trying to keep it smooth. If you brake at all you cause a ripple that forces the people behind to brake more, lose speed and have to accelerate to catch up. I have only once or twice seen this on Audax - more like leave the guy on the front till he is dead. Group riding skills in Audax are very poor, bordering on none existent. I had a great ride with Postie on an Easter Arrow, but it was five blokes who all rode independently 5 yards apart at best, at worst just in view. But it was a great day out - all I am commenting on is group riding. 

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 27 December, 2015, 12:32:52 pm
It's a wonder anyone ever survives any bike ride if you have to have all this expertise before you start! The first group riding I ever did was on the RBL Pedal to Paris in 2005. Our group of 90-odd riders split into sub groups of 10-20 and managed quite succesfully to ride at 25mph or so for quite long periods. We even got the whole contingent of 270 or so to ride together the last 10 miles of each day without incident.

I'm quite sure that anyone who volunteered to pace Steve would be quite capable and confident of doing so, or why would they volunteer? No-one's suggesting Steve should or would ride with novices. When the time comes to consider the 2017 restart, pacing should definitely be in the mix.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 27 December, 2015, 02:10:06 pm
<Stan's_Advocate>
Another mark in favour of recumbents - no wheel overlap when riding in a bunch :demon:
</Stan's_Advocate>

Depends if it's a long or short wheelbase recumbent.</pedantry>
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: macnark on 27 December, 2015, 02:31:37 pm
Clear polycarbonate shield, reduce road spray for follower, reduce wheel overlap, couple him closer to the drag surface.

(http://book-to-ride.com/oytt_screen.png)

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 27 December, 2015, 03:28:31 pm
Clear polycarbonate shield, reduce road spray for follower, reduce wheel overlap, couple him closer to the drag surface.

(http://book-to-ride.com/oytt_screen.png)
The rider will be able to ride at 10mph rendering all the protection irrelevant.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: nextSibling on 27 December, 2015, 04:07:25 pm
The rider will be able to ride at 10mph rendering all the protection irrelevant.  :thumbsup:

But attach that to the back of a motorbike and maybe we're getting somewhere  :P
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 27 December, 2015, 04:17:31 pm
http://fredrompelberg.com/EN/world-record

or

http://articles.latimes.com/1990-04-27/sports/sp-485_1_m-p-h-secrest
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 27 December, 2015, 05:01:46 pm
I've had a quick look using the Strava global heatmap (http://labs.strava.com/heatmap/) to see if there are any local airfields that have been used by cyclists. Chalgrove has restricted access and no activity. Abingdon has had some activity, not sure why or how (http://labs.strava.com/heatmap/#15/-1.32123/51.68619/gray/bike). No activity at Wroughton or Little Rissington. Perhaps a way of finding local circuits that have been used before?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 27 December, 2015, 05:35:17 pm
You are missing the point I'm making, the speed that I go up a hill is such that the aero advantage outweighs any sort of disparity in weight between my recumbent and my upright. All the figures used are constants, - do the maths.

I've no idea what my Cda values are for my recumbent and upright, I've never worked them out. From what I've seen 180w gives me a 3mph advantage over my upright. A good TT bike would not be a whole lot better, and certainly would not be good for Steve's attempt imo given the such aggressive geometry when churing out such a large milage.

Your tests are telling you something specific to you, your bikes and how you use them, an has no applicability to anyone else. 

Since you were using these tests to refute LWaB's statement that a good TT position isn't much less aero than a recumbent, I looked up some recumbent CdA values

Here they are (http://www.recumbents.com/wisil/simul/hpv_simul.asp#look-up)

A really good TT position these days will have a CdA of 0.18-0.19, i.e. well above the velomobiles but below several of the less extreme recumbents. 

In other words, LWaB was right and you were wrong.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 27 December, 2015, 05:39:07 pm
Can we keep most of the upright/ recumbent discussion elsewhere and just note the highlights here?

As others have noted, Steve isn't in an ideal TT position anyway and there are questions about power output in a recumbent/ upright position versus perceived exertion.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 27 December, 2015, 05:54:26 pm
I've had a quick look using the Strava global heatmap (http://labs.strava.com/heatmap/) to see if there are any local airfields that have been used by cyclists. Chalgrove has restricted access and no activity. Abingdon has had some activity, not sure why or how (http://labs.strava.com/heatmap/#15/-1.32123/51.68619/gray/bike). No activity at Wroughton or Little Rissington. Perhaps a way of finding local circuits that have been used before?

OutdoorTradersCC/OxonianCC use Abingdon airfield from time to time AFAIA...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 27 December, 2015, 05:55:48 pm
You are missing the point I'm making, the speed that I go up a hill is such that the aero advantage outweighs any sort of disparity in weight between my recumbent and my upright. All the figures used are constants, - do the maths.

I've no idea what my Cda values are for my recumbent and upright, I've never worked them out. From what I've seen 180w gives me a 3mph advantage over my upright. A good TT bike would not be a whole lot better, and certainly would not be good for Steve's attempt imo given the such aggressive geometry when churing out such a large milage.

Your tests are telling you something specific to you, your bikes and how you use them, an has no applicability to anyone else. 

Since you were using these tests to refute LWaB's statement that a good TT position isn't much less aero than a recumbent, I looked up some recumbent CdA values

Here they are (http://www.recumbents.com/wisil/simul/hpv_simul.asp#look-up)

A really good TT position these days will have a CdA of 0.18-0.19, i.e. well above the velomobiles but below several of the less extreme recumbents. 

In other words, LWaB was right and you were wrong.

Thanks for that link.

The bikes that I've referred to earlier on in this thread all have a lower CdA or near enough identical to Boardman in his 'Superman' prime which I'm sure you'll agree is about as extreme TT position you can get.

If you want to debate some more then start another thread.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 27 December, 2015, 06:06:53 pm
Bikes and riders have come on since Boardman: a modern tribar position on a modern bike, in either the pro ranks or the sharp end of the domestic circuit, has a CdA not far off Boardman's. 

Aerodynamics and how not to generalise test results: i make that two counts on which you're demonstrably talking out of your rear end.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 27 December, 2015, 06:20:53 pm
Bikes and riders have come on since Boardman: a modern tribar position on a modern bike, in either the pro ranks or the sharp end of the domestic circuit, has a CdA not far off Boardman's. 

Aerodynamics and how not to generalise test results: i make that two counts on which you're demonstrably talking out of your rear end.

LOL, of which the bikes I quoted earlier have a lower CdA - now shush.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 27 December, 2015, 06:39:07 pm
The rider will be able to ride at 10mph rendering all the protection irrelevant.  :thumbsup:

But attach that to the back of a motorbike and maybe we're getting somewhere  :P

I know this is tongue in cheek but, general observation, it is to Steve's immense credit that he has a view on the right way to attempt the challenge.  To me, how the record is achieved is an important part of the challenge.  There is a purity in how Steve expressed his original vision, which so many ideas on this thread would dilute.

More generally, I'd suggest that achieving the record is almost secondary to finding out how far you can ride based on one's worldview.  The really disappointing thing about Steve's situation is not that he may not achieve the record, but that he has not been able to test his own limits.  Strangely if Steve continues despite the jeopardy of failing to exceed Kurt or Tommy, I will have more not less respect for him. I'm probably being overly British and audaxy about this, but there you go.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MacB on 27 December, 2015, 07:42:27 pm
I think understanding the limits and parameters is a fair point, my romantic/idealised side thinks that solo with no assistance is the pure record. But where and how do you draw the line, how many categories are then created and how are attempts/claims policed?

Another way to look at it is what would be the upper limit mileage wise? Say the big boys got involved like a team Sky effort with all the bells and whistles that could bring? What would be the physical upper limits, 250/300 miles per day, more, less? Say they could achieve 274mpd for a 100k total, is there any way a solo effort could ever come close again?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 27 December, 2015, 08:07:52 pm
Tommy didn't do the whole year in a solo 'romantic' fashion. His big mileage months had full-time motorised support. When that was withdrawn, Tommy was much closer to his average daily distance, much the same daily distance as Steve was doing in summer.

The professionals' physical abilities could put the record well beyond the reach of even such rare and talented riders as Tommy, Kurt or Steve. For example, mid-range professional Jock Boyer won his first RAAM at record pace on the basis of no specific distance training and with an inexperienced crew, though he was run close by Secrest. A Sky pro (Porte?) rode a comfortable 400km training ride in daylight not so long ago.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: drgannet on 27 December, 2015, 08:44:45 pm
A Sky pro (Porte?) rode a comfortable 400km training ride in daylight not so long ago.

There's a report here http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/02/cam-and-richies-excellent-adventure/ (http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/02/cam-and-richies-excellent-adventure/). The data at the end is reported as below (not clear whether this was Porte's or Wurf's. They finished in the dark, although they didn't set out to ride 400km originally.
Ride time: 13hrs 30min
Distance: 403km
elevation gain: 4500m
Ave Power: 230watts
Ave Heart rate: 115
Kcal Burnt: 11400
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: La Tortue on 27 December, 2015, 11:26:08 pm
A Sky pro (Porte?) rode a comfortable 400km training ride in daylight not so long ago.

There's a report here http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/02/cam-and-richies-excellent-adventure/ (http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/02/cam-and-richies-excellent-adventure/). The data at the end is reported as below (not clear whether this was Porte's or Wurf's. They finished in the dark, although they didn't set out to ride 400km originally.
Ride time: 13hrs 30min
Distance: 403km

I believe at these ultra distances Kurt is as Pro as the Pros.  Didn't he ride 253 miles last Feb at Sebring in 11hrs 53 min?  And hasn't he been riding almost every day since?  They have nothing on Tarzan.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 27 December, 2015, 11:45:33 pm
Sebring is pancake-flat and a race, not a conversational-pace training ride with hills, coffee stops and dirt roads.

Granted, Kurt is very talented and has done a magnificent effort this year and will rightly take the record but comparing a 50 year old with a professional cyclist in their prime isn't viable.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Peter on 28 December, 2015, 12:19:43 am
This is why I pointed out earlier that Tommy Godwin was 27 when he set his mark.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: La Tortue on 28 December, 2015, 12:22:52 am
comparing a 50 year old with a professional cyclist in their prime isn't viable.

Very viable until a Pro steps up and does it.  The OYTT is a whole lot different than racing.  Training for one  race or sitting in a Peloton till it's your turn to sprint/ climb/ whatever. Racers as good as they are does not mean they  can get up day after day for a year.  That'sthe challenge.   In fact being old and having gone to work at dark thirty for 20 plus years might be an advantage.   Hail half the Peloton can't get out of bed before noon.  Lets not even talk about the amount of drugs they'll need  for 365 days of riding.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Peter on 28 December, 2015, 12:41:48 am
Leaving Kurt and Steve out of this (I don't think anyone disputes that they are remarkable riders), almost all, if not actually all professional cyclists are people who were recognised very early to have outstanding natural talent.  This is then built up and built upon in a professional manner.  I think they are qualitatively different athletes from us, certainly from me and I was a champion athlete at school.  I'm sure that if it was put to the professional cyclist in the correct way, i.e. the way they are used to: you will be paid at least as much as you would get from your normal activities and compensation for lost earnings while you recover and you will have a back-up team, then some of them might easily beat Tommy's figure - by a huge margin.  It's just counter-intuitive not to think so.  Most of them are great all-rounders when compared with the likes of us.  Mark Cavendish is thought of as a poor climber but he would smash most of us up almost anything.  Chris Boardman is thought of as a short triallist.  He used to and may still hold the course record on one of the North-West hilliest trials up Dovestones.  These people are just different from us! 

Peter
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: La Tortue on 28 December, 2015, 01:30:45 am
I believe discipline and dodging drunk moped drivers, injury, weather, and just plain bad luck are bigger factors than a racers impressive watt stat sheet for this challenge.  Kurt is within 13 days of finishing.  Every Pro alive has a least 365 days left to go.   Surely the odds favor Kurt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 28 December, 2015, 07:26:08 am
I believe at these ultra distances Kurt is as Pro as the Pros.  Didn't he ride 253 miles last Feb at Sebring in 11hrs 53 min?  And hasn't he been riding almost every day since?  They have nothing on Tarzan.

Err, I've done more than that in 12 hours!  And that's nothing special; any average club rider who focused on distance riding would achieve that.  The 12-hour record is 318 miles - set by an amateur, at age 49.  A professional who put his mind to it would do a lot more.  However, there is no prospect of one stepping up to do so any time soon: when a couple of them ride a 400km, it makes the news!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 28 December, 2015, 08:49:59 am
LT, given there is a higher percentage of positives from dope testing of USA Cycling masters racers than from the professional peloton, cheap shots about doping should probably be avoided.

Comparing Kurt's and Steve's approaches has shown that speed is a major contributor towards taking this record. Saying that having more inate speed than Kurt is not a significant advantage when tackling this record (as you are doing) is absurd. Boyer demonstrated in RAAM that speed counts decades ago and Ossie Nicholson held the year record between the wars. Both were TdF racers and took long distance records at their first attempts. The training involved in becoming and continuing to be a professional road racer is extensive and onerous.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 28 December, 2015, 09:17:41 am
Chris Boardman is thought of as a short triallist.  He used to and may still hold the course record on one of the North-West hilliest trials up Dovestones.  These people are just different from us! 

He certainly held the record for the IoM Mountain Circuit (until Wilko knocked about 5 minutes off his time in a f/f recumbent trike).

Apropos the pros, didn't the professional entries for PBP dry up because the markedly different training regime required for that one race practically exclude them from the rest of the regular season?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 28 December, 2015, 09:39:12 am
Yup. Grinding through the long distance miles killed their speed. Nicholson was never as fast a racer after his year record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 28 December, 2015, 09:58:59 am
I've just read in Citizenfish's Scholarly Monograph that Nicholson was advised to taper down by riding ~30 mile days for a couple of months after completing his record year, which I imagine would not be optimal for a pro wishing to continue a regular career.

Incidentally, big kudos to Citizenfish for his book, which kept me up way past my bedtime last night.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 28 December, 2015, 12:18:15 pm
...I'm sure that if it was put to the professional cyclist in the correct way, i.e. the way they are used to: you will be paid at least as much as you would get from your normal activities and compensation for lost earnings while you recover and you will have a back-up team, then some of them might easily beat Tommy's figure - by a huge margin....

The only slight problem with that is... is that per year, or per hour spent cycling??
If it was the former, they might think they were getting a rough deal because they're spending 15 hours a day in the saddle, every day.
If I was offered a job where I was paid the same amount but expected to spend my entire waking life devoted to it I would probably leave (this in fact did happen, and I did leave fairly rapidly, but that's another story)

Let's say an average pro cyclist does 80 days racing a year average 4 hours each - 320 hours. Also assume they get a fairly modest £100k per year - nothing like the 7 figure sums the big names like Froome or Wiggins get.
Scaling this up to what they would want to do the HAMR which is 365x15 = 5,475 hours. This is a factor of 5475/320 = ~17, which means even only an average pro cyclist would be needing to get paid £1.7m a year to contemplate it. ;D Where are they going to get that from?
If you wanted Froome to do it, who gets £3m anyway, you'd need to be forking out £50m.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MikeFromLFE on 28 December, 2015, 12:25:23 pm


Incidentally, big kudos to Citizenfish for his book, which kept me up way past my bedtime last night.

You too!

This book - even though I'm only upto the pictures - should be a pre-required read for anyone commenting on the attempts. The backgrounds of the contenders, the strategies, feeding regimes, and backup, as well as the after-effects are all pertinent to this thread.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: marcusjb on 28 December, 2015, 01:42:52 pm
Let's say an average pro cyclist does 80 days racing a year average 4 hours each - 320 hours.

OK - I am not going to get drawn into this in any big way, but pros spend rather longer than that in the saddle each year.

Niki Terpstra - 836 hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/340874
LTD- 792hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/laurenstendam
Roy Jeremy - 758hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/royjeremy
Thibay Pinot - 680 hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/tpinot

There are lots of gaps in all of their schedules, so I suspect it is significantly short for all of them.

David Lopez is at 1030hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/davidlopez

It's still less than 3 hrs a day.

Anyway, I can not see a current pro going for this record even if there were big bucks on the table, which of course there is not.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 28 December, 2015, 03:15:00 pm
Tommy didn't do the whole year in a solo 'romantic' fashion. His big mileage months had full-time motorised support. When that was withdrawn, Tommy was much closer to his average daily distance, much the same daily distance as Steve was doing in summer.

The professionals' physical abilities could put the record well beyond the reach of even such rare and talented riders as Tommy, Kurt or Steve. For example, mid-range professional Jock Boyer won his first RAAM at record pace on the basis of no specific distance training and with an inexperienced crew, though he was run close by Secrest. A Sky pro (Porte?) rode a comfortable 400km training ride in daylight not so long ago.
I have always noted that there is quite a lot of people who ride Audax who believe they are really good cyclists. Well some are but most are not. Before I had my stents fitted I chased Richie Tout to the finish of the BC in 17 hours, I only ever finished half way up a club TT and was always blown away on the hills by my club mates. All this distance stuff is about what you want to do, and if you cannot go too fast you can do a creditable endurance performance. There are many riders at my club that if were so disposed could put in fantastic Audax performances, but they choose to race, do TTs and some ride the track. There is one who asked me where the fun is at riding 70% of your max all day? Then I asked him what is the point of doing a 10 mile TT where your legs hurt for the rest of the day - get my point. It is about desire.

By the way the worst I have ever been after a ride was a 30 mile TTT. After 10 seconds I was on my limit and it is the only time I have wished for a puncture so the pain would stop. When I got home I had to lift my legs out of the car. I was in a worse state than after LEL, PBP or any Audax I have ever done. I was broken.

So if any talented athlete puts their mind to this endurance stuff they will do very well, and we must enjoy the days we have and not assume that because we have chosen to do a minority sub branch of cycling that it actually makes us very good cyclists, we just do it a lot. If you are like me you will just love the time on the bike, the big days out and the friends you meet.

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 28 December, 2015, 03:32:23 pm
Let's say an average pro cyclist does 80 days racing a year average 4 hours each - 320 hours.

OK - I am not going to get drawn into this in any big way, but pros spend rather longer than that in the saddle each year.

Niki Terpstra - 836 hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/340874
LTD- 792hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/laurenstendam
Roy Jeremy - 758hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/royjeremy
Thibay Pinot - 680 hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/tpinot

There are lots of gaps in all of their schedules, so I suspect it is significantly short for all of them.

David Lopez is at 1030hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/davidlopez

It's still less than 3 hrs a day.

Anyway, I can not see a current pro going for this record even if there were big bucks on the table, which of course there is not.

yeah I admit, only a very very rough guess. Those strava figures probably include training, which only fair to do.
You're right, difficult see a pro being willing to do it. Possibly due to the detrimental effect/risk  it might have on the rest of their career afterwards.
But we're talking in times when the year record is not particularly fashionable. Apparently back in the 1930s it was a lot more fashionable. Who knows in times to come it might gain much more publicity and be a much much more coveted/respected thing to achieve, in which case it might be a different story.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 28 December, 2015, 03:38:59 pm
Not all pros think they are paid just for the time they are riding. Allan Peiper (contemporary of Sean Yates) remarked that he was paid as a professional cyclist for the whole year, so eating the right things, stretching and other physical preparation, media interviews and appearances for his sponsors was just part of the deal.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 28 December, 2015, 04:51:16 pm
yeah I admit, only a very very rough guess. Those strava figures probably include training, which only fair to do.

And those times probably won't include turbo time, which they'll do a fair amount of for specific training gains (it's not easy doing very specific intervals on the road with traffic about).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Peter on 28 December, 2015, 04:54:44 pm
Not all pros think they are paid just for the time they are riding. Allan Peiper (contemporary of Sean Yates) remarked that he was paid as a professional cyclist for the whole year, so eating the right things, stretching and other physical preparation, media interviews and appearances for his sponsors was just part of the deal.

Yes.  And I didn't say that I thought for one minute a pro would take up the offer, well-remunerated or not; it is a very peculiar thing to be doing, though fascinating.  I was echoing LWaB's assertion that the right pro could do serious damage to this record.  None of this diminishes Kurt or Steve's efforts - they are actually doing it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 28 December, 2015, 06:57:13 pm
@Bianchi Boy: I think that there are lots of ways of being a "good" cyclist without being especially fast. I think there are lots of very good cyclists on this forum who have never entered a race in their life.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 28 December, 2015, 07:33:02 pm
I believe at these ultra distances Kurt is as Pro as the Pros.  Didn't he ride 253 miles last Feb at Sebring in 11hrs 53 min?  And hasn't he been riding almost every day since?  They have nothing on Tarzan.

Err, I've done more than that in 12 hours!  And that's nothing special; any average club rider who focused on distance riding would achieve that.  The 12-hour record is 318 miles - set by an amateur, at age 49.  A professional who put his mind to it would do a lot more.  However, there is no prospect of one stepping up to do so any time soon: when a couple of them ride a 400km, it makes the news!

I wrote the same post on my phone last night, but the internet ate it.  There are several posters on here who've done more than 253 miles in twelve hours: I can think of at least four and I'm probably missing some.  At this year's national, 253 would have put you just over 1/3 of the way down the entirely amateur field - on a tough course, on a windy, rainy day.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 28 December, 2015, 08:56:12 pm
Obviously speed comes into it as you need to be able to maintain a certain daily mileage to have a chance in the first place but I'd say speed is lower down on the list of priorities than:

I'm sure plenty of pros would be more than physically capable of smashing the record, but they would probably be lacking in one or more of the other things on that list.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 28 December, 2015, 09:51:38 pm
I reckon the only chance of a pro doing the year record would be an old Belgian domestic (or similar) without a contract for his last year, paid by a wealthy enthusiast or start-up bike maker. Chance of that happening is virtually nil.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 28 December, 2015, 10:01:46 pm
i'm interested why a pro (as suggested above) would not be able to go back into racing after this, or similar, challenge? in my understanding, he/she would need to do the speedwork again and be back on track within six or so months (if they could still look at the bike).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 28 December, 2015, 10:03:55 pm
i see it as something that Jens Voight might have done at the end of his career, already wealthy, big company backing in Trek, already has the social media side of things ticked, first to re-do the hour after they changed the rules, wasn't even a high mark, just the new mark, marketers dream

#shutuplegs
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 28 December, 2015, 10:04:20 pm
ZZ, nobody seems to have been as quick afterwards as beforehand but all of the previous examples have been at least a lifetime ago.

It is interesting to me that the period between Tommy's record and Kurt's (almost certainly successful) attempt is much greater than the period between Tommy and the creation of the safety bicycle. It pretty much matches the period between Tommy and the actual invention of the bicycle. Talk about a long-standing record!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 28 December, 2015, 10:10:26 pm
i see it as something that Jens Voight might have done at the end of his career, already wealthy, big company backing in Trek, already has the social media side of things ticked, first to re-do the hour after they changed the rules, wasn't even a high mark, just the new mark, marketers dream

He's got 6 kids, the youngest being 4. I guess he wouldn't want to miss a year of them growing up.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 29 December, 2015, 08:16:26 am
All of the above is very interesting but seems to have drifted slightly from "current thoughts on the record attempt".  ;D

Steve appears to have done weeks of sub-200 mile days.

What is going on with his attempt???
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: yanto on 29 December, 2015, 08:34:24 am


i see it as something that Jens Voight might have done at the end of his career, already wealthy, big company backing in Trek, already has the social media side of things ticked, first to re-do the hour after they changed the rules, wasn't even a high mark, just the new mark, marketers dream

He's got 6 kids, the youngest being 4. I guess he wouldn't want to miss a year of them growing up.

Can the bike (recumbent vs upright) professionals doing THE record attempt discussion please fuck off to another thread?

Ta.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jamesld8 on 29 December, 2015, 08:48:25 am
All of the above is very interesting but seems to have drifted slightly from "current thoughts on the record attempt".  ;D

Steve appears to have done weeks of sub-200 mile days.

What is going on with his attempt???

my thoughts exactly, recent days alone 30 miles below a Godwin all builds up a significant deficit. Unfortunately looking at balance of evidence of the existing and current evidence of miles achieved (consistently) this puts record well beyond Steve achieving. Yes there has been moped incident, yes weeks difficult bad windy conditions but even building in allowance for these no indication that Steve has been able to turn out the Godwin daily mileage consistently.

Kurt will take the current record soon, he has been able achieve 210-22o miles day in day out out , OK better easier terrain and weather, by adapting his strategy, using group pacing and being flexible in his approach.

At end of day it`s all about miles achieved in a year within the rules; great kudos and credit to Steve for adapting what seems to be a purist approach but I see no evidence that this will deliver a HAMR record for him.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 29 December, 2015, 08:53:12 am
It will deliver him the age-related record (40-50 or whatever the precise definition was) and that will probably stand for a very long time. After all, only 3 people in the history of cycling have ever cycled further in 365 days than Steve has this year. However, he always said it was an attempt at Godwin's record, and I have to agree that I think that is beyond him.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 29 December, 2015, 08:58:00 am
Well, firstly I am hoping that all is well with Steve.   

I'm also not going to speculate about the apparent lack of miles and comms but hope that Steve and/or the Team will put something out soon. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 29 December, 2015, 08:59:26 am
We all hope all is well with Steve. Lots of concerned friends on here.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 29 December, 2015, 09:02:45 am
Hopefully so Wow.   And a few less so disposed I believe.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 29 December, 2015, 11:12:13 am
Yesterdays ride has been posted - 41km, saying that Steve needed a long rest.

I'm presuming he's still resting now.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 29 December, 2015, 12:19:20 pm
We all hope all is well with Steve. Lots of concerned friends on here.

Indeed. I think the end is (or should be) near. It's been a magnificent effort, but surely it's time to recognise that the record is out of reach.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Canardly on 29 December, 2015, 12:21:06 pm
Steve's health first and foremost. Tomorrow is another day.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 29 December, 2015, 12:31:20 pm
three more days to go, i don't see the point of carrying on afterwards. look after yourself Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 29 December, 2015, 12:33:21 pm
Indeed. I think the end is (or should be) near. It's been a magnificent effort, but surely it's time to recognise that the record is out of reach.

I reluctantly agree. I think yesterday's 25 miles confirms things really, not just because of the 180 miles lost but because the reasons for the short day suggest he needs further time to recover from long-term fatigue. I hope he continues to the 31st December, perhaps with a little push at the end to consolidate his 2015 age-category record. But to continue into 2016 without a break and re-evaluation of strategy puts the attempt into Quixotic territory.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 29 December, 2015, 12:34:30 pm
To paraphrase Eddie Futch to Joe Frazier:

"It's all over. No one will forget what you did here today",
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 29 December, 2015, 12:40:59 pm
Indeed. I think the end is (or should be) near. It's been a magnificent effort, but surely it's time to recognise that the record is out of reach.

I reluctantly agree. I think yesterday's 25 miles confirms things really, not just because of the 180 miles lost but because the reasons for the short day suggest he needs further time to recover from long-term fatigue. I hope he continues to the 31st December, perhaps with a little push at the end to consolidate his 2015 age-category record. But to continue into 2016 without a break and re-evaluation of strategy puts the attempt into Quixotic territory.

Steve will be better remembered for a gallant but unsuccessful attempt on the OYTT than he would be for just pushing on. And on, and on and on, getting ever further away from his target and diminishing the stature of what has been an incredible effort through outrageous difficulties. Stop on 31st, Steve. Come back in 2017 (or later) if you want to, but don't drag it out any longer. It's painful to watch - it must be far more painful to endure. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jamesld8 on 29 December, 2015, 12:44:40 pm
Indeed. I think the end is (or should be) near. It's been a magnificent effort, but surely it's time to recognise that the record is out of reach.

I reluctantly agree. I think yesterday's 25 miles confirms things really, not just because of the 180 miles lost but because the reasons for the short day suggest he needs further time to recover from long-term fatigue. I hope he continues to the 31st December, perhaps with a little push at the end to consolidate his 2015 age-category record. But to continue into 2016 without a break and re-evaluation of strategy puts the attempt into Quixotic territory.

Steve will be better remembered for a gallant but unsuccessful attempt on the OYTT than he would be for just pushing on. And on, and on and on, getting ever further away from his target and diminishing the stature of what has been an incredible effort through outrageous difficulties. Stop on 31st, Steve. Come back in 2017 (or later) if you want to, but don't drag it out any longer. It's painful to watch - it must be far more painful to endure.

+1 --- finish on  a high note ie a year completed and a fantastic attempt; to push on will be damaging all round I`d fear. Best wishes.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 29 December, 2015, 12:52:43 pm
Hope Steve sees this. Some wise and thoughtful words.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 29 December, 2015, 12:54:17 pm
Also, the knowledge that Kurt wouldn't have done it without Steve doing all the preparatory work with the UMCA. Whatever the future of The Year Record, the interest that has been rekindled is almost exclusively the work of Mr. S. Abraham.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jack_P on 29 December, 2015, 01:19:52 pm
Also, the knowledge that Kurt wouldn't have done it without Steve doing all the preparatory work with the UMCA. Whatever the future of The Year Record, the interest that has been rekindled is almost exclusively the work of Mr. S. Abraham.

+1
And also awaking so many more people, me included, to the legend that is Tommy Godwin and the other Year record hero's.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 29 December, 2015, 02:10:41 pm
The description of Steve's effort thus far, from my perspective, is truly heroic.

However, after considerable thought, I shall be stopping my (small) regular DD into the fund, although I would happily continue it at a later date. I just feel no good can come of continuing the effort past the year at this stage.

Publicising here because if several of us do the same, it may help a wavering Steve to take some time to rest on his laurels, because he has earned them.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 29 December, 2015, 02:54:10 pm
The description of Steve's effort thus far, from my perspective, is truly heroic.

Agreed.

Re funding, I am going to await developments and see what Steve's plan is. I suspect that the post-attempt transition might be a time when support, of all kinds, is most needed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 29 December, 2015, 02:59:01 pm
The description of Steve's effort thus far, from my perspective, is truly heroic.

Agreed.

Re funding, I am going to await developments and see what Steve's plan is. I suspect that the post-attempt transition might be a time when support, of all kinds, is most needed.

Indeed, but allegedly there is a surplus of resources which should be used first to help with the post attempt transition. Also I would gladly support a collection if needed and called for by "Team Steve" (whoever the hell they are....); I'm just stating my opinion that the time has come to stop regular support.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 29 December, 2015, 03:03:25 pm
Yes, some serious thought needs to be given to Steve transitioning from the record attempt even if w rematch with TG is pencilled in for say 2017.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 29 December, 2015, 04:06:47 pm
Back in July I posted this:

Let's hope the weight of expectation (his own as well as others) isn't pushing Steve to attempt more than he is able to handle, mentally and physically.  I hope there someone in the team that Steve trusts that would be able to call a halt if (heaven forbid) things start looking risky?

It has been pretty clear that Steve has been on the limit for the whole year (minus the accident recovery period). He must be mentally and physically frazzled. Who is now making the decisions about what is possible, sensible and indeed safe?

I have to ask the same question again in the hope that someone - anyone - can answer this question for the the sake of Steve's wellbeing.  This is getting serious now - who on the team is advising Steve? 

I can't even begin to imagine how Steve is feeing at the moment, but the realisation that the record may be beyond his grasp this time could be devastating, so it's imperative that there is someone around that can steer him towards making the right decision and make sure there is proper psychological support.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 29 December, 2015, 04:43:07 pm
The description of Steve's effort thus far, from my perspective, is truly heroic.

Agreed.

Re funding, I am going to await developments and see what Steve's plan is. I suspect that the post-attempt transition might be a time when support, of all kinds, is most needed.

Agreed, agreed.
If Steve knocks it on the head now ahead of a 2017 restart (and I feel he should), he's going to need some help while he signs on for JSA and Housing Benefit and finds some sort of job.  If there's any money in the pot, I think it should be just handed over to him for this purpose.  If funds are low, perhaps a one off whip round.  He bloody deserves it.

I wonder if it would be more difficult to attract corporate sponsorship a second time around?  And what about those three bikes?  Were they given to him, or are they on loan?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 29 December, 2015, 04:44:30 pm
Your best hope of getting an answer is to get Hoppo or Idai to reply, probably by a direct e-mail to them rather than by a forum post, possibly citing your concern as a donor as a reason for your enquiry, although I am not sure from past experience whether Hoppo is able to accept and understand the facts and then to make a realistic extrapolation about the possible futures .. from which sensible decisions can then be made.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 29 December, 2015, 05:27:36 pm
Track shows 111km at an average of 19.8km/h with first track point at 11:41am

If it was boxing the trainer would throw the towel in to save his man for a better day.

If Steve has a close friend now is the time for that friend to go a sit with him, put their arm around him and tell him he is great and has done a fantastic thing. The worst weather of the year is about to come and riding 220 miles a day just looks impossible.

Look to the future.

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 29 December, 2015, 05:30:01 pm
Your best hope of getting an answer is to get Hoppo or Idai to reply, probably by a direct e-mail to them rather than by a forum post, possibly citing your concern as a donor as a reason for your enquiry, although I am not sure from past experience whether Hoppo is able to accept and understand the facts and then to make a realistic extrapolation about the possible futures .. from which sensible decisions can then be made.

I have an email drafted already as I am indeed a concerned standing-order donor. However I had intended to send it to Ian H as the last communication (a request for help) came from him. I don't recall having received any emails from either Hoppo or Idai during the year. However if you think that's more likely to garner a response I'll hapily email them.

Edit: as the email to Ian was sat there ready I sent it to him anyway :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 29 December, 2015, 05:30:28 pm
Do whatever he feels like until 31 December and then hop off the bike.

Ian or Idai generally reply to emails.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 29 December, 2015, 05:44:46 pm
Your best hope of getting an answer is to get Hoppo or Idai to reply, probably by a direct e-mail to them rather than by a forum post, possibly citing your concern as a donor as a reason for your enquiry, although I am not sure from past experience whether Hoppo is able to accept and understand the facts and then to make a realistic extrapolation about the possible futures .. from which sensible decisions can then be made.

I have an email drafted already as I am indeed a concerned standing-order donor. However I had intended to send it to Ian H as the last communication (a request for help) came from him. I don't recall having received any emails from either Hoppo or Idai during the year. However if you think that's more likely to garner a response I'll hapily email them.

Edit: as the email to Ian was sat there ready I sent it to him anyway :)

Yes Ian would be a good choice too - I had overlooked him .....  as my main contacts when I was involved were Hoppo and Idai
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 29 December, 2015, 06:21:01 pm
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army? Then he should be able to prioritise his troops' welfare above all else. The task is always impossible if the troops are fucked.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: notlobgp14 on 29 December, 2015, 07:31:50 pm
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army?

Keep going until they're all down then?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 29 December, 2015, 08:15:23 pm
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army? Then he should be able to prioritise his troops' welfare above all else. The task is always impossible if the troops are fucked.

Quote from: Spike Milligan
The Army works like this: If a man dies when you hang him, keep hanging him until he gets used to it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 29 December, 2015, 08:53:25 pm
Reluctantly agree that Steve needs to stop on 31st December and abandon the 2nd attempt now. What he has achieved in 2015 is incredible and deserves all the plaudits he gets but thrashing himself into the ground to the detriment of his physical and mental health for another 8 months with little chance of improving on what he has already achieved is dangerous. Take a year (or more) to take stock, learn from what he and others have done and give it another crack refreshed and revitalised.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 29 December, 2015, 09:38:16 pm
Will Steve's team make the courageous decision to go against Steve's recent statement?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 29 December, 2015, 10:36:28 pm
May I say that I appreciate Ian H's promptiness of his reply. Thank you.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: teamcinzano on 29 December, 2015, 11:19:48 pm
I've been lurking this forum for months. Reading Steve's ride titles on Strava, and watching his mileage slide further and further each day over the past month, I keep thinking back to an article in Outside Magazine from last summer. "Running on Empty" (http://www.outsideonline.com/1986361/running-empty) tells the story of a particularly virulent strain of Overtraining Syndrome (OTS) that is plaguing more and more ultra-distance athletes. OTS has weird manifestations rooted in deep, deep fatigue. Often, athletes respond to it by thinking they're not going hard or long enough, and just push themselves in deeper.

My hope is that Steve isn't caught in this type of trap, because it does seem like what little public information we have that his immune system is struggling and his fatigue that he might be there. It's a very hard hole to get out of, and a few days or weeks of recovery isn't necessarily enough.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Charlie Boy on 29 December, 2015, 11:23:42 pm
With great sadness I too feel it is time to call a halt on proceedings. Too many days at way under 200 miles over the last month make it  unrealistic to carry on. Better to have a decent break, take stock, and decide whether a future attempt is something Steve can stomach.

If he does decide it is, he will have several advantages; shite luck since March should given him belief in his self resolve; methodology can be improved in the light of this experience; Tarzan has given insights into things that could be done better. In short, lessons can be learnt from an attempt that was brave to say the least but ultimately came to grief due to the March Moped.

It was a brave attempt but it was ultimately an amateur one - and I say that in the truest sense of the word, in that all helpers were willing and capable, but had other commitments to service. Kurt has a professional soigneur and is lucky that he doesn't have to pay her as he is married to her.

Regarding financing a future attempt, more must be done to keep donors in touch with the attempt. It's not acceptable however large or small the donation not to do so, people have enough call on their money these days. A monthly newsletter at the very least should be de rigeur.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 29 December, 2015, 11:48:26 pm
<removed after further consideration>
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Robh on 30 December, 2015, 12:06:53 am
My sincere hope is that Steve has not been reading this thread for the past week or so.

I wish him well in whatever he decides to do with his time and effort. When I signed up to support him at the outset of this attempt, it never occurred to me that I would question his methods, and I remain happy to place my faith in his ability and his self-knowledge. That faith will remain until he stops trying, and it is for no-one else but Steve to decide when that moment has arrived. At that point, when Steve decides to knock it on the head, irrespective of miles covered, I expect that my faith in his ability will transform into admiration for his achievement. However that achievement is measured, I feel sure that it will represent the man's best efforts, and that's good enough for me.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 30 December, 2015, 08:24:02 am
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army? Then he should be able to prioritise his troops' welfare above all else. The task is always impossible if the troops are fucked.

was he anything to do with a BBC reality TV programme about RAAM with some noob who'd only ever done London-Brighton being signed up to the team (and dropped from after the ritual humiliation in front of the cameras)

ISTR it was an Army team
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: redfalo on 30 December, 2015, 09:02:21 am
Reading Steve's ride titles on Strava, and watching his mileage slide further and further each day over the past month, I keep thinking back to an article in Outside Magazine from last summer. "Running on Empty" (http://www.outsideonline.com/1986361/running-empty) tells the story of a particularly virulent strain of Overtraining Syndrome (OTS) that is plaguing more and more ultra-distance athletes. OTS has weird manifestations rooted in deep, deep fatigue. Often, athletes respond to it by thinking they're not going hard or long enough, and just push themselves in deeper.

That's a hugely fascinating and scary article! From an outside perspective, it does sound plausible that Steve may be at least on the cusp of developing some OTS symptoms.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 30 December, 2015, 09:11:00 am
My sincere hope is that Steve has not been reading this thread for the past week or so.

I wish him well in whatever he decides to do with his time and effort. When I signed up to support him at the outset of this attempt, it never occurred to me that I would question his methods, and I remain happy to place my faith in his ability and his self-knowledge. That faith will remain until he stops trying, and it is for no-one else but Steve to decide when that moment has arrived. At that point, when Steve decides to knock it on the head, irrespective of miles covered, I expect that my faith in his ability will transform into admiration for his achievement. However that achievement is measured, I feel sure that it will represent the man's best efforts, and that's good enough for me.

 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 30 December, 2015, 09:34:06 am
Reading Steve's ride titles on Strava, and watching his mileage slide further and further each day over the past month, I keep thinking back to an article in Outside Magazine from last summer. "Running on Empty" (http://www.outsideonline.com/1986361/running-empty) tells the story of a particularly virulent strain of Overtraining Syndrome (OTS) that is plaguing more and more ultra-distance athletes. OTS has weird manifestations rooted in deep, deep fatigue. Often, athletes respond to it by thinking they're not going hard or long enough, and just push themselves in deeper.

That's a hugely fascinating and scary article! From an outside perspective, it does sound plausible that Steve may be at least on the cusp of developing some OTS symptoms.

It's a bit of an endurance read in itself! But I agree, a very interesting article.
I don't think it is likely Steve has fallen into that particular trap as, although he has done an immense amount of cycling, it has all been low intensity. In the early days of the attempt I recall someone on the Timetrialling forum saying that, at the heart rate levels he was operating, Steve would not be putting enough stress on his cardio system to maintain his fitness; he was effectively de-training. I've not followed that discussion but, if that is true, it may be that, after a year without stretching his cardio system, he might - paradoxically - have become unfit. 
I don't know but, whatever is the cause, something I clearly not right and blundering on looks likely to cause him physical and also mental harm. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 30 December, 2015, 10:21:37 am
Except that Kurt has maintained similar levels of cardio exertion and seems to be maintaining his fitness quite well.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 30 December, 2015, 10:28:04 am
Except that Kurt has maintained similar levels of cardio exertion and seems to be maintaining his fitness quite well.

I had thought Kurt was operating at a higher heart rate to enable his higher speed but I've not looked at it for ages so may be wrong. If he is also at 90bpm then, there may be nothing in that theory either - I suppose I preferred to think Steve might have just lost the edge off his fitness rather than got something nasty! 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 30 December, 2015, 10:28:46 am
Quote
... someone on the Timetrialling forum saying that

Well, we should take such theories seriously. Even more so if they are backed up by, say;
- The Daily Mail Motoring section,
- some bloke in the pub,
- my taxi driver, or
- a Youtube comment
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jack_P on 30 December, 2015, 10:39:02 am
Except that Kurt has maintained similar levels of cardio exertion and seems to be maintaining his fitness quite well.

I think the difference with Kurt is that he is a very competitive guy. All year in facebook videos he has mentioned chasing down people on the road he has seen, so I would assume there has been some variation.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jamesld8 on 30 December, 2015, 10:42:31 am
Except that Kurt has maintained similar levels of cardio exertion and seems to be maintaining his fitness quite well.

I think the difference with Kurt is that he is a very competitive guy. All year in facebook videos he has mentioned chasing down people on the road he has seen, so I would assume there has been some variation.

and he / Alicia mentions that in recent Flatwoods rides they`re doing sprints  too in the group riding
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 30 December, 2015, 10:50:46 am
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army? Then he should be able to prioritise his troops' welfare above all else. The task is always impossible if the troops are fucked.

was he anything to do with a BBC reality TV programme about RAAM with some noob who'd only ever done London-Brighton being signed up to the team (and dropped from after the ritual humiliation in front of the cameras)

ISTR it was an Army team

I remember the programme; I think the team was from the RAF and Hoppo was brought in as an Expert.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 30 December, 2015, 10:52:23 am
Yesterday on Strava: average 85, max 124. [EDIT: Kurt's Strava!]

124bpm is hardly high intensity training.

(I'd give you the numbers from February if my Strava-fu was up to it! )

 A couple of days back - on FB - he [Kurt!] mentioned a group going past him a little too quick, so he didnt waste energy getting on their wheels.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 30 December, 2015, 10:55:29 am
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army? Then he should be able to prioritise his troops' welfare above all else. The task is always impossible if the troops are fucked.

was he anything to do with a BBC reality TV programme about RAAM with some noob who'd only ever done London-Brighton being signed up to the team (and dropped from after the ritual humiliation in front of the cameras)

ISTR it was an Army team

I remember the programme; I think the team was from the RAF and Hoppo was brought in as an Expert.

was he the nob shouting out of the car for the poor bloke to ride 5mph faster in some temperate place like Death Valley?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 30 December, 2015, 11:17:00 am
Quote
... someone on the Timetrialling forum saying that

Well, we should take such theories seriously. Even more so if they are backed up by, say;
- The Daily Mail Motoring section,
- some bloke in the pub,
- my taxi driver, or
- a Youtube comment

Meow!
I fear you may have been scarred by your unhappy outing to the TT forum a couple of years ago but, amongst the usual detritus, in-jokes and tedious point-scoring, there are people on there who have quite a bit to contribute concerning the theory and practice of going as far / fast a possible from a given amount of effort on a bike. Lots of them have been cheering Steve on too.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ElyDave on 30 December, 2015, 11:37:10 am
Litte Rissington has a great big lump in the middle if I remember correctly, unless theyve changed it since i flew gliders and light aircraft there.

What about lyneham?

Or even somewhere like Rockingham, isn't that the oval circuit?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 30 December, 2015, 12:01:53 pm
I can't see Steve packing. if you've done long distance TTs you'll know that there's a hierarchy. The top contenders have a strict schedule, and when they're off it they stop. Everyone else has a cascade of subsidiary goals.

I'd start off with a goal of 400 miles, then 600km, then 15mph average, and so forth.

I don't buy into the binary Record/Failure idea, and I'm surprised that so many do. The moped incident has introduced a element of complication. Steve should have had an uninterrupted year, and we'd have seen what he could have done in his own style. I don't see anything wrong with Steve continuing to August at any pace he feels like doing.

The interest to me lies in seeing how someone can move forward from his current state. Most training manuals would see what he's been doing as a recipe for getting slower. Without a need to target the record, other training approaches can be tried. The HAMR clock has been paid for and it runs until August. I'd like to see Steve move to a more normal workload, and to target TT distances, culminating in the 24, via the Mille Pennines and the Wild Atlantic Way.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 30 December, 2015, 12:02:27 pm
Litte Rissington has a great big lump in the middle if I remember correctly, unless theyve changed it since i flew gliders and light aircraft there.

What about lyneham?

Or even somewhere like Rockingham, isn't that the oval circuit?

IIRC the BHPC looked at running an event at Little Rissington many moons ago but they wanted too much money and we could get Castle Combe or Kimbolton for a lot less.

Rockingham Speedway is sort-of oval, with seven degree banking, but it appears that most, if not all, of the various road circuits within its confines incorporate part of the speedway and will likely be much used by film crews, track days and corporate wankfests, all of which bring in Money.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 30 December, 2015, 12:04:42 pm
The flat circuit idea is a good one.

But Steve would need access to it 24/7 for a year, which I reckon rules out any private facility.

There probably is a suitable public area in this country, but it might take some finding.

I've not been following Kurt closely, but it may be he has only recently found the woods circuit he's been using a lot in the last month or two.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 30 December, 2015, 12:04:59 pm
My sincere hope is that Steve has not been reading this thread for the past week or so.

I wish him well in whatever he decides to do with his time and effort. When I signed up to support him at the outset of this attempt, it never occurred to me that I would question his methods, and I remain happy to place my faith in his ability and his self-knowledge. That faith will remain until he stops trying, and it is for no-one else but Steve to decide when that moment has arrived. At that point, when Steve decides to knock it on the head, irrespective of miles covered, I expect that my faith in his ability will transform into admiration for his achievement. However that achievement is measured, I feel sure that it will represent the man's best efforts, and that's good enough for me.

+1
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: slope on 30 December, 2015, 12:11:59 pm
My sincere hope is that Steve has not been reading this thread for the past week or so.

I wish him well in whatever he decides to do with his time and effort. When I signed up to support him at the outset of this attempt, it never occurred to me that I would question his methods, and I remain happy to place my faith in his ability and his self-knowledge. That faith will remain until he stops trying, and it is for no-one else but Steve to decide when that moment has arrived. At that point, when Steve decides to knock it on the head, irrespective of miles covered, I expect that my faith in his ability will transform into admiration for his achievement. However that achievement is measured, I feel sure that it will represent the man's best efforts, and that's good enough for me.

+1

+ another 1
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 30 December, 2015, 12:14:45 pm
I can't see Steve packing. if you've done long distance TTs you'll know that there's a hierarchy. The top contenders have a strict schedule, and when they're off it they stop. Everyone else has a cascade of subsidiary goals.

I'd start off with a goal of 400 miles, then 600km, then 15mph average, and so forth.

I don't buy into the binary Record/Failure idea, and I'm surprised that so many do. The moped incident has introduced a element of complication. Steve should have had an uninterrupted year, and we'd have seen what he could have done in his own style. I don't see anything wrong with Steve continuing to August at any pace he feels like doing.

The interest to me lies in seeing how someone can move forward from his current state. Most training manuals would see what he's been doing as a recipe for getting slower. Without a need to target the record, other training approaches can be tried. The HAMR clock has been paid for and it runs until August. I'd like to see Steve move to a more normal workload, and to target TT distances, culminating in the 24, via the Mille Pennines and the Wild Atlantic Way.

I find a great deal to agree with here.   :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 30 December, 2015, 12:21:18 pm
The flat circuit idea is a good one.

But Steve would need access to it 24/7 for a year, which I reckon rules out any private facility.


He might be able to blag the use of a car test track for the odd weekend - Lotus, BMW, Ford, Opel and DAF Trucks have lent their facilities for HPV record attempts in the past - but as you say getting the use of one for a significant period is a non-starter.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 30 December, 2015, 01:02:37 pm
Regarding motor racing circuits; keep in mind they have service roads round the entire track which would be usable even when the circuit was in use. Might be impractical if the British GP's on though.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 30 December, 2015, 01:16:39 pm
Steve wouldn't need to use a circuit everyday, only when using a drafting group to extend his distance. That might be once or twice a week.

ESL, you are plain wrong. If Steve had said "I wanna piss about on a bike for a year or two. Gissa a bike an' sum dosh." then doing whatever he wants is absolutely fine. Saying to the world before he started that he was gunning for Tommy's record, then it is pass or fail. Due to a drunk, his first attempt failed. Bad luck, well done and commiserations, old chap.

Due to a combination of factors, many of which have been examined here, his second attempt is now toast. Currently Steve needs to average at least 220 miles every day for months and he has not been able to do so at any point in the past year. It has been two months since Steve averaged above 200 daily miles for a full week. He can and probably would improve through next year but cannot pull back all of his deficit to take the record.

Steve, rest, recover and consider your options to not just attempt the record (and fail) but to take the record. Anything else is a waste of your talent and determination.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 30 December, 2015, 01:17:17 pm
Some speak about a rumour JaguarLandRover have made a bid to buy the Silverstone race circuit.
They ( Tata ) already own RAF Gaydon and RAF Honily.
JLR hosted a series of charity bike rides through their dealer network, and several lucky prize-drawer winners spent a day at Honily riding round with members of the Sky Team, riding F8 Pinnies.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 30 December, 2015, 01:28:34 pm
Some speak about a rumour JaguarLandRover have made a bid to buy the Silverstone race circuit.
They ( Tata ) already own RAF Gaydon and RAF Honily.
JLR hosted a series of charity bike rides through their dealer network, and several lucky prize-drawer winners spent a day at Honily riding round with members of the Sky Team, riding F8 Pinnies.
Sounds a goer.   :thumbsup:

Have you been in touch with them yet, Ningy? harnessed your business and PR acumen? Worked your usual charm on them?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 30 December, 2015, 01:37:49 pm
Some speak about a rumour JaguarLandRover have made a bid to buy the Silverstone race circuit.
They ( Tata ) already own RAF Gaydon and RAF Honily.
JLR hosted a series of charity bike rides through their dealer network, and several lucky prize-drawer winners spent a day at Honily riding round with members of the Sky Team, riding F8 Pinnies.


With any luck, you'll have at least a year to persuade them to give up making money from their track(s) for a year so Steve & friends can bimble round at 15-18mph. Sounds like a plan...

Like LWaB, I also disagree with ESL's contention. Steve's self-imposed task was to take the Tommy Godwin record, under HAM'R rules. It was not to see how far he could get before he didn't feel like riding the bike any more. That was Miles's strategy and look where it got him. Steve cannot now take the record. Therefore he should stop - exactly how you suggested the top 24hr TT contenders do. Steve is a top contender, but he may not be thinking particularly cogently just now. He needs advice and encouragement to do the right thing - which is not carrying on until he breaks.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 30 December, 2015, 02:07:13 pm
Yesterday on Strava: average 85, max 124.

124bpm is hardly high intensity training.

(I'd give you the numbers from February if my Strava-fu was up to it! )

 A couple of days back - on FB - he mentioned a group going past him a little too quick, so he didnt waste energy getting on their wheels.

I would not like to say without a power meter, if Steve had one then for sure you could, with much more accruacy say what intensity he is putting out. And maybe he cold put ot a bit more without compromsing anything.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 30 December, 2015, 02:43:04 pm
Steve's original HAMR/One Year Time Trial finishes at midnight on the 31st. The second one started in August.

Looking at Steve's performance throughout the year I'd say it is very unlikely that he'll beat Kurt's new mark. But having a pause now, or getting a job and putting in a few miles in the evening and at weekends is not an abandon. It's a pity that Iron-Ox came in for so much criticism, because at the end of the day the HAMR is just a disciplined form of Mile-Eater. Putting Steve in some sort of hamster-wheel has no appeal to me.

I'm fully expecting to see Steve at the 24, where he'll appear at 1 hour intervals at our roundabout at Espley. He'll be about 100 miles or so behind the winning distance. There'll be a discussion about whether he could have made the Godwin distance given a fair wind and lots of luck, followed by a discussion of who could do the distance, and why they'd never attempt it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 30 December, 2015, 02:54:20 pm
ESL - UMCA HAMR is AUK Mileater. The major difference is that the cost to enter is very low so folks join in with the AUK version. To rack up like Pat Kenney did 30,000 miles twice around the day job requires one hell of a lot of discipline. As does his total recorded distance which was s shade short of the million.

Chasing a record year the size that Tommy set was never going to be about having a nice time. It was always going to be about riding hard, suffering and doing what was necessary.

Whether Steve riding the hamster wheel has appeal or not to you is irrelevant. He says he wants the record - he has to do what necessary.

And for the records Steve if he trained is capable of a very good 24 hour and not one lagging 100 miles behind the first three.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 30 December, 2015, 02:56:21 pm
Steve has the ability to take the record but will have to tackle the hamster wheel to do so. Doing anything else is quixotic. Tintin, and to a lesser extent Miles, got grief because they said they were attempting the record but weren't riding enough to even get close.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ray 6701 on 30 December, 2015, 03:12:32 pm
Latest from fb shows no signs of quitting (personally I also think he should see the year out & ditch the 2nd attempt).

I've just cancelled my standing order but would gladly help out again if he had another attempt.  He does need to ditch the way he's doing it at the mo though & go light n fast as per Kurt.  Trudging around on a tourer carrying god knows how much kit is just ridiculous imo.


"This video shows the conditions Steve's facing this week! Not fun! But we also have another health update, which is somewhat more positive.

The good news is that the medical tests we did last week show significant improvements in all Steve's health parameters.

His initial tests - taken back in October and November - had shown serious organ stress from high levels of muscle breakdown and an overly sugar-based diet, which was hindering his post-ride recovery.

To cement this health progress the doctor has told Steve to take a number of forced-rest days, to fully get back to strength for the longer term (hence his full day-off on Monday and his lower miles for the rest of this week).

Steve will begin to build up his daily mileage again - gradually - from this weekend (in order to avoid reversing any health gains from the rest days).

We'll keep you posted as he progresses."
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 30 December, 2015, 03:24:24 pm
ESL - UMCA HAMR is AUK Mileater. The major difference is that the cost to enter is very low so folks join in with the AUK version. To rack up like Pat Kenney did 30,000 miles twice around the day job requires one hell of a lot of discipline. As does his total recorded distance which was s shade short of the million.

Chasing a record year the size that Tommy set was never going to be about having a nice time. It was always going to be about riding hard, suffering and doing what was necessary.

Whether Steve riding the hamster wheel has appeal or not to you is irrelevant. He says he wants the record - he has to do what necessary.

And for the records Steve if he trained is capable of a very good 24 hour and not one lagging 100 miles behind the first three.

Steve's best 24s have been when you and LWAB helped him, so you'll know what that is. The record is 542 in 2011 in East Sussex, Steve was just under 407 on that occasion.
The approach should have changed after the restart, but everyone's eyes were on PBP.
Title: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 30 December, 2015, 03:24:53 pm
Thanks Fungus. Question - why go on with the second attempt?  He's ill and the way the 'team' is approaching it he will never get better.  Doing less miles isn't rest.

Also, if his body can't cope with the workload why continue doing what's caused the problem?  Wouldn't stop record attempt and go away and do some proper structured training be the way forward?  Half the problem is that Steve didn't train for his record attempt.

From personal experience Drs, including consultants don't understand serious bike riding and are certainly not going to stop you riding. It doesn't enter their brain as most patients are normal sedentary folk. I'm lucky not to have a damaged heart from my ill health escapade.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: teamcinzano on 30 December, 2015, 03:37:32 pm

I don't think it is likely Steve has fallen into that particular trap as, although he has done an immense amount of cycling, it has all been low intensity. In the early days of the attempt I recall someone on the Timetrialling forum saying that, at the heart rate levels he was operating, Steve would not be putting enough stress on his cardio system to maintain his fitness; he was effectively de-training. I've not followed that discussion but, if that is true, it may be that, after a year without stretching his cardio system, he might - paradoxically - have become unfit. 
I don't know but, whatever is the cause, something I clearly not right and blundering on looks likely to cause him physical and also mental harm.

I don't think that OTS is a result of intensity per se, as much as the cumulative affects of exertion without enough recovery. The distances involved for both Kurt and Steve are totally unprecedented for them. It's a bit like altitude sickness, you never know exactly how your body is going to react to something it's never faced before.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 30 December, 2015, 03:39:17 pm
He's ill
Do you have some confirmation of this or is this a diagnosis based on observation? I too think the signs are bad and it looks like Steve have serious fatigue. Just wondering if there is independent verification?

BB 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 30 December, 2015, 03:43:17 pm
That latest update on Facebook kind of demonstrates that, like in Miles attempt, someone in Steve's team hasn't really grasped what mileage is required from now on to get the record on the second attempt, and is effectively sentencing Steve to 8 months of futility. Days or weeks of low miles with extended rest periods will push the required average significantly in the wrong direction, so what's the point of this now? Is it for someone in the team's ego? I can't believe this is being driven by Steve, or, if it is, no-one's advising him with his health in mind.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 30 December, 2015, 03:43:31 pm
Did you see the quote underneath the FB video?

Quote
His initial tests - taken back in October and November - had shown serious organ stress from high levels of muscle breakdown and an overly sugar-based diet, which was hindering his post-ride recovery.

This is someone who needs a long period of rest and recuperation, not being sent out to conquer cycling's Everest. The ride should have stopped when this was first discovered, not carried on for two more months. I'm frankly disgusted that no-one in the team has seen fit to pull the plug on the ride.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 30 December, 2015, 03:44:56 pm
Quote
... someone on the Timetrialling forum saying that

Well, we should take such theories seriously. Even more so if they are backed up by, say;
- The Daily Mail Motoring section,
- some bloke in the pub,
- my taxi driver, or
- a Youtube comment

Meow!
I fear you may have been scarred by your unhappy outing to the TT forum a couple of years ago but, amongst the usual detritus, in-jokes and tedious point-scoring, there are people on there who have quite a bit to contribute concerning the theory and practice of going as far / fast a possible from a given amount of effort on a bike. Lots of them have been cheering Steve on too.
And good for them!

Of course there are a few knowledgeable posters: very few, and with very niche experience. And not afraid to make ludicrous extrapolations from their knowledge of an hour's ride up-and-down a DC on the latest Cervelo, to how people should ride 200 miles-per-day.
( I swear, most of them are baffled by the sales of Bromptons, when it's crystal clear how much faster a Cervelo is.) 

No offence meant to your good self, or others with a more rounded view of the world of cycling :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 30 December, 2015, 03:56:34 pm
BB - see Wowbagers FB quote.  As someone who's involved in clinical research this raises serious alarm bells.

Rest never has meant carry on riding your bike less. I've been there and done it. You wind up not being able to do anything for months plus risking serious long term damage. It's not worth it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jamesld8 on 30 December, 2015, 04:01:36 pm
Did you see the quote underneath the FB video?

Quote
His initial tests - taken back in October and November - had shown serious organ stress from high levels of muscle breakdown and an overly sugar-based diet, which was hindering his post-ride recovery.

This is someone who needs a long period of rest and recuperation, not being sent out to conquer cycling's Everest. The ride should have stopped when this was first discovered, not carried on for two more months. I'm frankly disgusted that no-one in the team has seen fit to pull the plug on the ride.

+1 ,

with a continuing windy / wet forecast (MetOffice 30 day), with suggestions that Steve will reduce / rest days isn`t this just adding to his overall stress in that average daily mileage required  is getting greater and greater. So why continue for month (s) more when task it seems is getting bigger and bigger due to health issues posted in FB above which have caused him to fall behind his schedule. Pushing on and on will not help Steve recuperate but add more and more pressure on him
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 30 December, 2015, 04:14:15 pm
He's down 593km this week so far.......
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 30 December, 2015, 04:17:29 pm
I've never seem Steve DNF, no matter how far off the leading pace he is. But throttling right back to recover wouldn't be a DNF.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 30 December, 2015, 04:26:38 pm
ESL - this is nothing to do with DNF - it's to do with remaining alive and well.

And for your information Steve has DNFed as we all have. There is no shame in it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 30 December, 2015, 04:29:18 pm
Hi - I have just read the Facebook post from 1 hour ago. No bike ride is worth your long term health and (I am not a medical person) that sounds serious to me. Organ stress and muscle loss. Steve is an icon for Audax and I for one do not want to see him driven into the ground. The kind of issues do not sound like a day off the bike will help - more like a month.

BB

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 30 December, 2015, 04:29:48 pm
I've never seem Steve DNF, no matter how far off the leading pace he is. But throttling right back to recover wouldn't be a DNF.

Of course he'll DNF. Even if he keeps riding until August, he'll DNF because he won't make the distance. This is not a challenge to see how long he can keep riding (or how ill he can make himself), it's a fixed (well, fixed-ish, depending on what Kurt achieves) distance target - like an overblown 1000km, and completely unlike a 24hr TT. And there's no honour or glory in self-inflicted injury when it's in the futile pursuit of an out-of-reach goal.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 30 December, 2015, 04:33:13 pm
Phew! It's been a tough year, well done Steve.

Happy new year to you all.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: teamcinzano on 30 December, 2015, 04:36:17 pm
Plus, Steve's only what, 41? He's got plenty of time to let his body truly recover and make another go in the years ahead. He's going to set the HAM'R record tomorrow. It'll only stand for 9 days, but still. He did the year. Significant organ stress? Jesus.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 30 December, 2015, 04:43:19 pm
I'm sure everyone here wishes the Steve the best, and that there is genuine concern for his welfare. And personally, if he is still aiming to better Tommy's total, I think the task in the next six months is now too great for any current cyclist to achieve. December 31st would be an ideal point to pause and recover.

But there does seem to be some selective interpretation of what is partial information from the FB post. 'Organ stress' does sound alarming, but the post says that he had 'medical tests' just last week which showed improvement. It also suggests that his old high-sugar diet was part of the problem. In that light, the change in diet that so many here have been critical of, was in his best interests healthwise, even if that resulted in a performance hit.

We may be sceptical about GPs' ability to understand endurance athletes, but I'd put more faith in the specialists he has seen than remote diagnosis via internet forum.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 30 December, 2015, 04:48:11 pm
I don't doubt that the change of diet was medically advised, and in his long-term interests, but it certainly diminished his ability to rack up the miles for long enough to effectively put the record out of reach. The 31st is the logical time to pack it in, with an incredible distance achieved by any standards and his name right up there with the greats (including Kurt). He now needs a plan for a proper and full recovery, and to get this HAM'R monkey off his back.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 30 December, 2015, 04:53:59 pm
All true, jo, but it has taken 2 months for that information to reach the public gaze.

If it wasn't for public consumption when it was first known, why is it now?

Is there anyone in the team, bar Steve, who is in a position to throw in a virtual towel? If not, and it's Steve himself who is insisting on continuing, despite what sound like serious health issues, what does it take for the team to distance themselves from the effort? There has to be a get-out clause in a major project of this sort.

As has been pointed out, with the right kind of recovery and a reappraisal of the approach, if Steve wanted another go after a sufficient period, I doubt that there is anyone on here who supports him now who wouldn't support a future effort.

As ever, wishing Steve the best of luck.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 30 December, 2015, 04:54:18 pm
Jo,

I've got quiet a serious underlying health condition. It's taken me a very long time to get near to sorting and I've been very unwell. I wouldn't be as well as I am now if I wasn't a clinical researcher.  So don't put faith in consultants, most are excellent but they deal with normal people.

Medics use best and evidence based practice to do their best for their pts. There is precious little research, best practice or evidence based practice on endurance cyclist let alone on specifics that would affect Steve. I know, I've had to dig very deep for the information I've got on my health.

Any sensible person would stop now. It's not worth their long term health to take the risks, particularly as there will be very little evidence to weigh the risks against.

Remember two of his team members take the approach of you don't give up until you can't ride anymore.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: notlobgp14 on 30 December, 2015, 04:57:33 pm
Significant Organ Stress.

That should have been the signal to Stop.  If we go back in medical history and look how many conditions were treated, it was rest, good food and fresh air.  How much of that will Steve receive whilst continuing this challenge?

Speaking as one who has suffered Major Truamatic Organ Damage, it takes one heck of a time to recover; if ever, to 100% function.  My digestive system is still complaining over 15 years after spleen and pancreas damage followed by major surgery in 2000.  I would advise anyone showing signs, or having medical confirmation, of organ damage to take remedial steps immediately.  It is now his long term health we are talking about.  Steve's world is cycling, he has many years of good cycling ahead of him if he takes the right action now.

I'd stop at Midnight tomorrow.  He's completed 365 days, as declared at the start, so he's finished what he started.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 30 December, 2015, 04:58:55 pm
There is an assumption that Steve will give it another run in the future, if he decides to stop before August. 

Maybe those are his plans.  Maybe they aren't.  Maybe this is it for him.

He has taken a year out of his life.  He'll need to take another at least if he decided to start a third attempt.  And if that fails, whither then?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: nextSibling on 30 December, 2015, 04:59:50 pm
I'd put more faith in the specialists he has seen than remote diagnosis via internet forum.

I wouldn't. In my experience, medical professionals who aren't participating or otherwise directly interested in extreme endurance athletics haven't a clue about it. Those that are will tell you how little is understood about this level of performance. Steve is in a niche of a niche of a...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 30 December, 2015, 05:02:12 pm
There is an assumption that Steve will give it another run in the future, if he decides to stop before August. 

Maybe those are his plans.  Maybe they aren't.  Maybe this is it for him.

He has taken a year out of his life.  He'll need to take another at least if he decided to start a third attempt.  And if that fails, whither then?

They are for the future, dependent on a full recovery from this effort. There is no such assumption: just an assurance that if, once he's recovered, he still wants another go at this damned-fool venture, then he'll have my support!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 30 December, 2015, 05:07:18 pm
Whilst the individual support is no doubt helpful, the next attempt may be a different order of magnitude (particularly if he employs an "attending" support crew) and it may be done without the backing of as many commercial sponsors given Steve will have a record of trying and, for want of a better word, failing.  It is also questionable whether the current sponsors will feel they have got a good return on their investment, at least a good enough return to provide similar levels of support in the future.

Lack of commercial backing might be particularly important.  For example, if he can't get the backing of a bike supplier and has to supply them out of his own funds.  In other words, there could be a need for up front capital expenditure, not just operating costs.

I don't imagine this is an easy decision for Steve.  It is full of uncertainty and might end up with him never being able to launch a new attempt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 30 December, 2015, 05:12:37 pm
If he sacrifices his health in a lost cause, he definitely won't be able to launch another attempt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 30 December, 2015, 05:18:07 pm
Steve will make a sensible decision.  He's hard core but not stupid.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Justin(e) on 30 December, 2015, 05:24:26 pm
Phew! It's been a tough year, well done Steve.

Happy new year to you all.

Bravo Steve on an incredible year.  Part one of the attempt is about to be successfully completed.  Fourth highest ever mileage.  Awesome.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Justin(e) on 30 December, 2015, 05:35:27 pm
Quote
His initial tests - taken back in October and November - had shown serious organ stress from high levels of muscle breakdown and an overly sugar-based diet, which was hindering his post-ride recovery.

This is stating the obvious.  Of course there has been serious organ stress.  Nearly every PBP rider would show some signs of serious organ stress.

Which organs?  What sort of stress?  Any long term damage?  Any long term benefit?  What is the prognosis?  There is nowhere  near enough information here for any person to decide to "throw in the towel" based on this.  This challenge is as much about mind as it is about body.  Looking at the media posts, Steve seems as stoical and positive as always.  Allez Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 30 December, 2015, 05:39:34 pm
Steve will make a sensible decision.  He's hard core but not stupid.

I hope so. Continuing to ride to possible long term health issues for a futile cause is stupid IMO.

That FB post is concerning as it clearly suggests he is going to continue. Riding on public roads in such a fatigued state is a serious cause for concern.

But we're just armchair experts, we're not there in Steve's head. All we can do is interpret the snippets of information we are given and the data we see.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Freya on 30 December, 2015, 05:46:56 pm
Quote
This is stating the obvious.  Of course there has been serious organ stress.  Nearly every PBP rider would show some signs of serious organ stress.

If it is that bleedin' obvious then why bother having the tests and then acting on the results?
You have to assume that this is not 'normal' even for someone undertaking  extreme exercise, otherwise it would not have led to the medical intervention that has taken place.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 30 December, 2015, 05:48:50 pm
One of the oddest things is that we have no real idea whether tomorrow (or Friday) will bring a post along the lines of:

"After much deliberation I've decided to stop at the end of my initial year attempt..."

or

"A new concurrent attempt starts today 1st January 2016!"
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: αdαmsκι on 30 December, 2015, 06:00:13 pm
"A new concurrent attempt starts today 1st January 2016!"

Oh dear God. I really hope that isn't the case.

IMO it is time for this.

(http://telecoms.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2013/01/white-flag.jpg)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 30 December, 2015, 06:31:33 pm
I'm sure everyone here wishes the Steve the best, and that there is genuine concern for his welfare. And personally, if he is still aiming to better Tommy's total, I think the task in the next six months is now too great for any current cyclist to achieve. December 31st would be an ideal point to pause and recover.

But there does seem to be some selective interpretation of what is partial information from the FB post. 'Organ stress' does sound alarming, but the post says that he had 'medical tests' just last week which showed improvement. It also suggests that his old high-sugar diet was part of the problem. In that light, the change in diet that so many here have been critical of, was in his best interests healthwise, even if that resulted in a performance hit.

We may be sceptical about GPs' ability to understand endurance athletes, but I'd put more faith in the specialists he has seen than remote diagnosis via internet forum.
Agree with every word.   :thumbsup:

jo's last para is considerably more rational than the numerous following posts attempting to refute it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 30 December, 2015, 06:34:03 pm
Whilst the individual support is no doubt helpful, the next attempt may be a different order of magnitude (particularly if he employs an "attending" support crew) and it may be done without the backing of as many commercial sponsors given Steve will have a record of trying and, for want of a better word, failing.  It is also questionable whether the current sponsors will feel they have got a good return on their investment, at least a good enough return to provide similar levels of support in the future.

Lack of commercial backing might be particularly important.  For example, if he can't get the backing of a bike supplier and has to supply them out of his own funds.  In other words, there could be a need for up front capital expenditure, not just operating costs.

I don't imagine this is an easy decision for Steve.  It is full of uncertainty and might end up with him never being able to launch a new attempt.

None of that is a good reason for carrying on a task that is now not possible to complete successfully.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 30 December, 2015, 06:45:30 pm
For all that "Team Steve" have obviously put in a lot of time and effort, viewed from the outside and judged by their interaction with the wider world they are at best amateurish and at worst dangerous and THEY NEED to realise it. Their failure to do so may have repercussions way beyond the practical aspects of the record attempt and directly impinge on Steve's long term health and wellbeing. None of the news management, health management, media management that they are responsible for shows any of the leadership I would expect to see in what - for want of a better term - I would expect in a professional team (those are the only aspects that we can see).

I do hope that they come to realise it and stand themselves down before it is too late. Steve isn't the one that has ***** up, he has put his heart and soul into the effort. They have, by taking on the role, falling short of what is needed and not realising it soon enough to bring in people that know what they are doing.





Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 30 December, 2015, 06:47:37 pm
Steve will make a sensible decision.  He's hard core but not stupid.

But he may be ill/un informed. His original diet - which he presumably had followed on other long rides - was clearly not right for this effort. The professional advice should have been sought before the attempt.

I'm in awe of what he has achieved, but I too feel he should stop tomorrow, and regroup.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 30 December, 2015, 06:51:56 pm
For all that "Team Steve" have obviously put in a lot of time and effort, viewed from the outside and judged by their interaction with the wider world they are at best amateurish and at worst dangerous and THEY NEED to realise it. Their failure to do so may have repercussions way beyond the practical aspects of the record attempt and directly impinge on Steve's long term health and wellbeing. None of the news management, health management, media management that they are responsible for shows any of the leadership I would expect to see in what - for want of a better term - I would expect in a professional team (those are the only aspects that we can see).


Are you saying they have put his health at risk? That they are responsible for his "health management"?

I think that's a bit strong; it was Steve that saw the doctor(s). Is there a doctor on the team? It wouldnt surprise me if Steve was just one-to-one with the medics, and noone was waiting outside to put him back on the bike.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 30 December, 2015, 06:57:04 pm
You're probably right, Matt, but it's surely part of the responsibility of anyone who regards themselves as part of Steve's team to be mindful of his health, and to provide some degree of oversight which he himself may not be fully able to do. The impression I have, which may well be wrong, is that Hoppo and Idai have taken on the roles of coach, cheerleader and nutritionist, and therefore they must also take responsibility for advising Steve in his own interest, and not the interest of the task - which is now impossible anyway.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 30 December, 2015, 07:00:09 pm
For all that "Team Steve" have obviously put in a lot of time and effort, viewed from the outside and judged by their interaction with the wider world they are at best amateurish and at worst dangerous and THEY NEED to realise it. Their failure to do so may have repercussions way beyond the practical aspects of the record attempt and directly impinge on Steve's long term health and wellbeing. None of the news management, health management, media management that they are responsible for shows any of the leadership I would expect to see in what - for want of a better term - I would expect in a professional team (those are the only aspects that we can see).


Are you saying they have put his health at risk? That they are responsible for his "health management"?

I think that's a bit strong; it was Steve that saw the doctor(s). Is there a doctor on the team? It wouldnt surprise me if Steve was just one-to-one with the medics, and noone was waiting outside to put him back on the bike.

Actually, no.

What I am saying is that assessing their performance on those things I might have been able to there is no indication of (again for want of a better word) professional competence. That is not in itself a criticism, as they are volunteers doing what they can. BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH.


Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 30 December, 2015, 07:45:12 pm
For better or worse Steve is likely to continue into 2016 (and TBH his health issues don't seem any worse than Kurt's who has been allowed to continue after medical advice)

there's not a lot any of us can do to stop this, there is after all enough apparently dosh in the kitty for Steve to ride as long as he likes (and I just checked 2016 AUK online entries still have the £1 donation option) and the charity fundraiser option seems to have been sidestepped

I'll personally be stepping away from watching the whole challenge once Kurt has his hard earned and well deserved
WORLD RECORD!!!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 30 December, 2015, 07:49:46 pm
Yes, Steve probably has enough money to allow him to keep riding until he is on his knees, with Hoppo cheering him all the way down. He won't get the record doing it that way though.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 30 December, 2015, 07:53:29 pm
For all that "Team Steve" have obviously put in a lot of time and effort, viewed from the outside and judged by their interaction with the wider world they are at best amateurish and at worst dangerous and THEY NEED to realise it. Their failure to do so may have repercussions way beyond the practical aspects of the record attempt and directly impinge on Steve's long term health and wellbeing. None of the news management, health management, media management that they are responsible for shows any of the leadership I would expect to see in what - for want of a better term - I would expect in a professional team (those are the only aspects that we can see).


Are you saying they have put his health at risk? That they are responsible for his "health management"?

I think that's a bit strong; it was Steve that saw the doctor(s). Is there a doctor on the team? It wouldnt surprise me if Steve was just one-to-one with the medics, and noone was waiting outside to put him back on the bike.

Actually, no.

What I am saying is that assessing their performance on those things I might have been able to there is no indication of (again for want of a better word) professional competence. That is not in itself a criticism, as they are volunteers doing what they can. BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH.
OK cool. I actually think that a support team without medical qualifications would be acting _more_ professionally to leave such matters to Steve and the doctors, than to stick their oars in.

I'll stay away from discussing the other roles of the team for now, apart from agreeing with you that they are indeed volunteers ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 30 December, 2015, 08:01:37 pm
Am, as usual, vaguely depressed at the personal sniping by the usual posters on here :(
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 30 December, 2015, 08:17:52 pm
Am, as usual, vaguely depressed at the personal sniping by the usual posters on here :(

I'm sorry if you feel I'm one of those, Wobbly, but I'm afraid I feel quite strongly that - on the evidence we have - Steve is not being well advised, and that it could end badly for him. Of course, we are each responsible for ourselves and, children and aged relatives aside, no-one else, so it's perhaps stepping outside my business to say anything at all, but this is a discussion forum and this board is about the conduct of the record attempts.

It is, of course, up to Steve what he does with and to himself. If, despite the evidence that the record's impossible, he decides to continue through to August, then so be it. If he does indeed continue, I think I'll probably retire from observing and commenting on his progress, as there would seem little point in it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 30 December, 2015, 08:18:31 pm

OK cool. I actually think that a support team without medical qualifications would be acting _more_ professionally to leave such matters to Steve and the doctors, than to stick their oars in.

I'll stay away from discussing the other roles of the team for now, apart from agreeing with you that they are indeed volunteers ...

Indeed, I'm carrying on more for the benefit of any team members reading than any disagreement with you.

The most challenging aspect of leadership, whether it is team leadership or senior management, is recognising what skills are lacking in a team and how to compensate for that lack.

For example.

We have been shown the picture of Steve waiting in a GP's surgery. Had I been involved with the team I would have argued strongly for getting a respected specialist involved at every stage (ffs - Team Sky don't visit their GP, do they?) and I would have used the funds to pay if needed. The visit would have been at Steve's convenience - location could be almost anywhere in the whole bloody country. If it needed to be paid for, so be it. If it needed more dosh, I would have asked for it from people (and swapping hats here, I would have anted up as would many here).

And if they didn't have the time to arrange stuff like that, then they should again have bought borrowed or begged the resource to spend that time.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 30 December, 2015, 08:24:06 pm
It is so easy to climb out the woodwork on day 364 and say how the team should be organised.

As far as I am concerned, Steve has ridden the 4th longest distance ever on some exceptionally challenging roads in some exceptionally challenging conditions with an exceptionally challenging injury. Bravo!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 30 December, 2015, 08:27:06 pm
It is so easy to climb out the woodwork on day 364 and say how the team should be organised.

As far as I am concerned, Steve has ridden the 4th longest distance ever on some exceptionally challenging roads in some exceptionally challenging conditions with an exceptionally challenging injury. Bravo!

I think concerns had been raised rather earlier than Day 364! But you're absolutely right about Steve's achievements. The question is, where does he go from here?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 30 December, 2015, 08:27:39 pm

OK cool. I actually think that a support team without medical qualifications would be acting _more_ professionally to leave such matters to Steve and the doctors, than to stick their oars in.

I'll stay away from discussing the other roles of the team for now, apart from agreeing with you that they are indeed volunteers ...

Indeed, I'm carrying on more for the benefit of any team members reading than any disagreement with you.

The most challenging aspect of leadership, whether it is team leadership or senior management, is recognising what skills are lacking in a team and how to compensate for that lack.

For example.

We have been shown the picture of Steve waiting in a GP's surgery. Had I been involved with the team I would have argued strongly for getting a respected specialist involved at every stage (ffs - Team Sky don't visit their GP, do they?) and I would have used the funds to pay if needed. The visit would have been at Steve's convenience - location could be almost anywhere in the whole bloody country. If it needed to be paid for, so be it. If it needed more dosh, I would have asked for it from people (and swapping hats here, I would have anted up as would many here).

And if they didn't have the time to arrange stuff like that, then they should again have bought borrowed or begged the resource to spend that time.
I think it was a BMI clinic, rather than a bog standard GP's surgery....
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 30 December, 2015, 08:29:12 pm
It is so easy to climb out the woodwork on day 364 and say how the team should be organised.

As far as I am concerned, Steve has ridden the 4th longest distance ever on some exceptionally challenging roads in some exceptionally challenging conditions with an exceptionally challenging injury. Bravo!

And it's pretty easy to make snide remarks when you get so much training.

I've been solidly behind Steve and I'm one of the many to support him practically over  the months. I've avoided criticising any of his tactics and kept my opinions of his team (which frankly have developed over those 365 days) under wraps.

There is a time to be upfront though, and I think this is it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 30 December, 2015, 08:33:42 pm

OK cool. I actually think that a support team without medical qualifications would be acting _more_ professionally to leave such matters to Steve and the doctors, than to stick their oars in.

I'll stay away from discussing the other roles of the team for now, apart from agreeing with you that they are indeed volunteers ...

Indeed, I'm carrying on more for the benefit of any team members reading than any disagreement with you.

The most challenging aspect of leadership, whether it is team leadership or senior management, is recognising what skills are lacking in a team and how to compensate for that lack.

For example.

We have been shown the picture of Steve waiting in a GP's surgery. Had I been involved with the team I would have argued strongly for getting a respected specialist involved at every stage (ffs - Team Sky don't visit their GP, do they?) and I would have used the funds to pay if needed. The visit would have been at Steve's convenience - location could be almost anywhere in the whole bloody country. If it needed to be paid for, so be it. If it needed more dosh, I would have asked for it from people (and swapping hats here, I would have anted up as would many here).

And if they didn't have the time to arrange stuff like that, then they should again have bought borrowed or begged the resource to spend that time.
I think it was a BMI clinic, rather than a bog standard GP's surgery....

https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015/photos/a.1523448711237093.1073741830.1520678421514122/1651470028434960/?type=3&theater

(Gastroenterologist some time afterwards)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: IJL on 30 December, 2015, 08:38:26 pm

I find the term  "organ stress" rather odd, hopefully it's a bit mis-translation from Dr speak by whoever made the Facebook post.  In 20+years in health care its a term I've never heard used and its rings quackery rather than medicine.  Indeed a quick google of the term brings up a mix of cellular biology (which is not appropriate to the circumstances) and some of the more eccentric alternative therapies.

I'm sure exhaustion is an issue but organ stress?



Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 30 December, 2015, 08:52:42 pm

I find the term  "organ stress" rather odd, hopefully it's a bit mis-translation from Dr speak by whoever made the Facebook post.  In 20+years in health care its a term I've never heard used and its rings quackery rather than medicine.  Indeed a quick google of the term brings up a mix of cellular biology (which is not appropriate to the circumstances) and some of the more eccentric alternative therapies.

I'm sure exhaustion is an issue but organ stress?
The digestive system is an organ, which is what he seems to have had trouble with...I think the FB post needs to give a bit more clarity, because it might've been stated as serious because it required dietary change rather than a couple of Rennie!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 30 December, 2015, 08:54:41 pm
It is so easy to climb out the woodwork on day 364 and say how the team should be organised.

As far as I am concerned, Steve has ridden the 4th longest distance ever on some exceptionally challenging roads in some exceptionally challenging conditions with an exceptionally challenging injury. Bravo!

And it's pretty easy to make snide remarks when you get so much training.

I've been solidly behind Steve and I'm one of the many to support him practically over  the months. I've avoided criticising any of his tactics and kept my opinions of his team (which frankly have developed over those 365 days) under wraps.

There is a time to be upfront though, and I think this is it.

And the time is now, obviously. Just when it can have most effect.
Training? I learn from the masters.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 30 December, 2015, 08:59:30 pm
Quote
"A new concurrent attempt starts today 1st January 2016!"

.........wouldnt be the worst thing in the world, if he thinks he can do 220mpd for the current year, then having the option to carry on come August would be a wise move, maybe

#positivepost
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 30 December, 2015, 09:03:33 pm
The objective is for Steve to beat TG's and, whatever it becomes on 10/1/2016, KS's record. If there is a secondary objective in the second attempt, eg breaking Steve Abraham's 2015 record for under 50s, then we should be told.

It comes to light on the penultimate day of the year that Steve has been suffering from "serious organ stress from high levels of muscle breakdown".

I am quite sure that many of us would have expressed these concerns a lot earlier had we been party to them. We were expressing concerns in an undirected way, simply because we could see that Steve's second effort was foundering but were not party to the more precise knowledge that has been imparted today.

It is perfectly clear that his August to August attempt is not going to break the record. It's time he stopped, had a good long recovery period and decide, in a few month's time, what he wants to do from there.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 30 December, 2015, 09:05:01 pm
Quote
"A new concurrent attempt starts today 1st January 2016!"

.........wouldnt be the worst thing in the world, if he thinks he can do 220mpd for the current year, then having the option to carry on come August would be a wise move, maybe

#positivepost

That would be utterly bonkers. Going into an attempt like this the athlete needs to be at the top of his form and completely fit right at the start. Steve isn't. He needs a break.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 30 December, 2015, 10:32:17 pm
Steve, take a break, go and do some of that respite touring you have talked about and no one will think any the less of you.

You are a true hero!

Then after a year or so, think carefully about whether you want another crack at it, reorganise support and sponsorship, with lots more support and a professional pr machine then get into training if you want to have another crack at it, but if you decide to just continue Audaxing, that's fine, you don't owe anybody anything and have inspired many to go further than they ever thought possible, including Kurt, or get back on their bike.

But please don't jeopardise your own health any further for the sake of this attempt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 30 December, 2015, 10:43:52 pm

I find the term  "organ stress" rather odd, hopefully it's a bit mis-translation from Dr speak by whoever made the Facebook post.  In 20+years in health care its a term I've never heard used and its rings quackery rather than medicine.  Indeed a quick google of the term brings up a mix of cellular biology (which is not appropriate to the circumstances) and some of the more eccentric alternative therapies.

I'm sure exhaustion is an issue but organ stress?


I share your thoughts on that. These anonymous FB posts that refer to Steve in the third person always make me slightly uneasy anyway, and the rather strange medical information added to that feeling. Oh well. As you say, it could be just a matter of how it is expressed.

That FB post, together with other gleanings and educated guesses, strengthens my sincere hope that Steve is discussing plans with those who can offer an objective view and who can assist in weighing up the risks - very real - and possible benefits for a range of options.

I refrained from comment on strategy on FB as I don't think it is the place for it, but I did wish him safe riding. Treacherous conditions out there.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 30 December, 2015, 10:44:17 pm
On a more positive note, I'm still not sold on the 220mpd automatically being "too much" theory as you only need to look at what happened with Godwin's 1939 record.

At the end of day 144 of Tommy's 1939 record breaking attempt he had covered a total of 25284 miles, which was an average of just 174.4 miles per day.

That left him 221 days to cover the remaining 49781 miles, which required 225.25 miles per day. And he (obviously) did just that.

Up until that point (144 days in) Tommy had not shown he was consistently able to do that mileage as he had only exceeded 225 miles on 4 days out of those 145 days.

Sound familiar?

(Of course, it's a lot trickier with the miles already in Steve's legs and the great unknown of whether he will recover properly from the recent problems, or whether he has the legs to do 225mpd+ at all for that remaining time...)

To play Devil's Advocate I'd suggest that if he was going to consider a restart 1st Jan 2017 then I can see exactly why he'd keep going until it was much more obviously slipping from his grasp. Even if he gets to August 2016 and misses out then he's still got a good few months to recover, regroup and replan before a January 2017 restart.

And, obviously, if he doesn't recover quickly enough, or his health is adversely affected for any other reason, then I hope he or his team will pull the plug quickly on the 2nd (August 2015) attempt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 30 December, 2015, 10:46:51 pm
The difference being that Godwin was paced, and he had the luxury of long warm days.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 30 December, 2015, 10:53:54 pm
To date, the team has shown no significant interest in adopting measures that would noticeably increase Steve's mileage. Various suggestions were made months ago, even before his ankle got broken. Fat lot of good that turned out to be.

Tommy racked up his big mileage months with full-time motorised support. Tommy spent significant periods at or above 20 mph, often on major roads with lorries limited to 20 mph. Tommy came off a very hard winter with ungritted roads while Steve has had very little snow and hasn't averaged 20 mph over most of a day this year, even with a strong tailwind.

Comparing Steve's current situation with Tommy's is not reasonable.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 30 December, 2015, 10:55:57 pm
Steve could choose to be paced (or dropped each day at the base of a tailwind). From just looking at the raw data it looked as if some significant change was made in Tommy's riding regime around the end of May as he went from rarely exceeding 225 miles to regularly doing so (and often by some margin). I haven't got far enough in CitizenFishy's book to find out whether it's documented there.

And they'll both have roughly the same number of long warm days, although this will come down to the weather in 2016 compared to what it was in 1939:-

Tommy's ~221 days ran from 25th May to 31st Dec so it included a fair chunk of Autumn and Winter, all of Summer but misses out on the warmer days of Spring (April/May).

Steve's ~221 days runs from 1st Jan to mid August, so it includes a fair chunk of Winter and Spring but misses out on the warmest/longest days of August/September.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hellymedic on 30 December, 2015, 11:11:58 pm
I can't be the only one who gets confused by the TG abbreviation cos I think TG = Teeth Grinder
when it means Tommy Godwin.
As I'm a bear of little brane, can we just name them Steve and Tommy?

Ta muchly!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 30 December, 2015, 11:20:46 pm
To date, the team has shown no significant interest in adopting measures that would noticeably increase Steve's mileage.

Except for the few recent occasions where he has been dropped back in MK to avoid a strong headwind riding back W/SW. Maybe this is just the beginning of the changes. Again, we don't know either way.

Comparing Steve's current situation with Tommy's is not reasonable.

I agree it is comparing 1939 apples to 2015 oranges, but I'm merely pointing out it is just as unreasonable to say that it would be impossible for someone to do 225mpd+ for 221 days based on them having not got anywhere near that for 145 days before that. Except that Tommy did go out and do just that. It may be unlikely (but not impossible) that Steve will manage it, but I can see why he's not giving up on it yet.

Steve has the benefit of, amongst other things, better technology, better lights and better clothing. In his first attempt he was ~2800 miles ahead of Tommy's pace when he was hit by the moped. That may be due to having better conditions to ride in, but that's part of the element of luck that this record will require if you're going to do it based in the UK. The roads certainly weren't still icy in early May 1939 (before the daily averages jumped up), so it's not all down to the weather.

I've said pretty much all along that it'll be the warmer weather that will be make or break for Steve, and whether he has the legs for months of 240mpd+ averages (which his original schedules called for, even ~285mpd during July). We didn't get to see it in 2015 due to injury and subsequent loss of form so we've nothing to base it on.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 30 December, 2015, 11:32:45 pm
FWIW and for clarity, I too think Steve could possibly be capable of carrying on (although to be honest I think it is improbable that he will achieve the target of the second restart). I don't know what it takes to get up each morning and pedal to the magnificent achievement has already attained, I don't think my views on the strategy needed to achieve the target count for squat.

What I have been arguing for is for his "team" to take a deep breath and consider what is needed from them for Steve to achieve his target, whether up to now they have been doing what they are able to do, or what Steve needed, and needs now. To think long and hard about the implications of continuing to support Steve in the way they have. Now, at the completion of the first year with a substantial achievement is the right time to do that.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 30 December, 2015, 11:35:24 pm
Steve has been at least 2mph slower than his schedule pretty much all year. He kept lifting his daily distance, before his broken ankle, by increasing hours ridden, along with a gradual speed increase. In March, Steve was already accumulating sleep debt. He couldn't increase his hours ridden any more. Any additional daily distance in future had to come from riding faster. The drunk took that away but he wasn't going to exceed 250 daily miles in Summer without a huge step change.

Steve screwed himself by not properly recuperating (sports physio?) from his broken ankle. No opportunity was taken to get faster, just grinding out slow miles both before and after the restart. If anything, less support was given/ taken after the restart, meaning Steve spent more time off the bike and reducing his average speed on it. He has shown an uncharacteristic fragility since the restart with lots of sickness.

Steve's crew has chanted 'Steve knows best' and facilitated an approach that seems intended to minimise his daily miles, despite all of the evidence that Steve was getting more run down, rather than quicker. The team members that disagreed with that approach have been fired or left or keep their heads down.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 31 December, 2015, 06:13:15 am
To date, the team has shown no significant interest in adopting measures that would noticeably increase Steve's mileage.

Except for the few recent occasions where he has been dropped back in MK to avoid a strong headwind riding back W/SW. Maybe this is just the beginning of the changes. Again, we don't know either way.

Comparing Steve's current situation with Tommy's is not reasonable.

I agree it is comparing 1939 apples to 2015 oranges, but I'm merely pointing out it is just as unreasonable to say that it would be impossible for someone to do 225mpd+ for 221 days based on them having not got anywhere near that for 145 days before that. Except that Tommy did go out and do just that. It may be unlikely (but not impossible) that Steve will manage it, but I can see why he's not giving up on it yet.

Steve has the benefit of, amongst other things, better technology, better lights and better clothing. In his first attempt he was ~2800 miles ahead of Tommy's pace when he was hit by the moped. That may be due to having better conditions to ride in, but that's part of the element of luck that this record will require if you're going to do it based in the UK. The roads certainly weren't still icy in early May 1939 (before the daily averages jumped up), so it's not all down to the weather.

I've said pretty much all along that it'll be the warmer weather that will be make or break for Steve, and whether he has the legs for months of 240mpd+ averages (which his original schedules called for, even ~285mpd during July). We didn't get to see it in 2015 due to injury and subsequent loss of form so we've nothing to base it on.

Other factors that explain why it is highly improbable that Steve could match Tommy's increase in rate are:
- Seasons: Tommy upped his mileage in the Summer.   Because Steve (re) started in August, he's already had half of his Summer riding.
- Fatigue: Tommy upped his mileage when he had been going for 5 months.  Steve has been on the road for 12 (barring minimal enforced rest with broken ankle).
- Age: 27 vs 41
- Cycling pedigree: Tommy was a racer with some success in time trialling, used to riding fast.  Steve is our finest plodder, used to riding steadily for long periods but has no track record of riding quickly.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 31 December, 2015, 06:29:55 am
To be fair, Steve's 24hr TT PB is further than Tommy's. On the other hand, Tommy rode very few 24s.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 31 December, 2015, 08:54:08 am
As we are on the last day of the first challenge attempt I would like to thank all of the TEAM who have contributed to Steve's year including Roger who set up the money side of things and has given us regular updates  (even since he stepped down ) I think if Steve was intending to stop at the end of today then an indication of that would have been posted.  I suspect the TEAM have done an awful lot of work behind the scenes discussing the options for Steve.  I think if Steve had accepted the idea of a mobile feeding /support vehicle that would have been in place a long time ago mindful of the healthy state of the finances. This would have ensured he wasn't lugging more gear than need by or spending time ordering /waiting for meals.  Good luck to Steve in his endeavours whichever route he goes down.  My thanks also to Jo for all her hard work.  My best wishes to Steve and fellow supporters of Steve's challenge and hope 2016 is a good year for you.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 31 December, 2015, 08:57:56 am
As we are on the last day of the first challenge attempt I would like to thank all of the TEAM who have contributed to Steve's year including Roger who set up the money side of things and has given us regular updates  (even since he stepped down ) I think if Steve was intending to stop at the end of today then an indication of that would have been posted.  I suspect the TEAM have done an awful lot of work behind the scenes discussing the options for Steve.  I think if Steve had accepted the idea of a mobile feeding /support vehicle that would have been in place a long time ago mindful of the healthy state of the finances. This would have ensured he wasn't lugging more gear than need by or spending time ordering /waiting for meals.  Good luck to Steve in his endeavours whichever route he goes down.  My thanks also to Jo for all her hard work.  My best wishes to Steve and fellow supporters of Steve's challenge and hope 2016 is a good year for you.

Indeed, whatever the rights and wrongs going forwards, Steve's efforts are monumental and I'm sure all the people involved have given unstintingly of their time.

And Jo, we didn't know ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 31 December, 2015, 09:37:37 am
It's important not to lose sight of what Steve has achieved in the past 364 days. 

He is demonstrably one of the most accomplished endurance cyclists of all time, who can look on the legends of first half of the 20th century and justifiably think "I have proven myself a match for them".  There is only one other living person who can also make that claim and he is about to take a record that has stood for longer than most of us have been on this planet.

It's fucking amazeballs.  Awesome.  I feel fortunate to have been witness to an epoch making attempt on a seemingly impossible dream.  I will be toasting Steve's success this evening and wishing him a happy and healthy New Year, wherever it takes him.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: clarion on 31 December, 2015, 10:07:59 am
Exactly.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: redfalo on 31 December, 2015, 10:46:05 am
It's important not to lose sight of what Steve has achieved in the past 364 days. 

He is demonstrably one of the most accomplished endurance cyclists of all time, who can look on the legends of first half of the 20th century and justifiably think "I have proven myself a match for them".  There is only one other living person who can also make that claim and he is about to take a record that has stood for longer than most of us have been on this planet.

It's fucking amazeballs.  Awesome.  I feel fortunate to have been witness to an epoch making attempt on a seemingly impossible dream.  I will be toasting Steve's success this evening and wishing him a happy and healthy New Year, wherever it takes him.

That's true - but in a way, his past performance also tells you how much more Steve had been able to achieve with a different approach: lighter bikes, flatter routes, a Kurt-style motor home, help from domestiques and so on.

Steve's effort has been utterly amazing, but if he want's to topple Kurt's new record, I think it's inevitable that he will have to change his philosophy.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 31 December, 2015, 11:07:18 am
I'll be interested to see if Kurt gets much recognition for his achievement. There's a fair amount of human interest in the story, but the media are fickle.
The year record wouldn't have come to our attention again if there hadn't been two Tommy Godwins, and the other one hadn't won an Olympic medal, and was still alive in the run-up to London 2012.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 31 December, 2015, 11:13:07 am
Yes it would. Steve brought it to our attention by his ambition, and that was what caused what limited media interest there has been.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 31 December, 2015, 11:19:02 am
Here was me thinking it was because Idai got in touch with the media, in part due to the need to attract corporate sponsorship.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 31 December, 2015, 11:27:21 am
The first reference on here to either Tommy Godwin was in January 2012.
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=55379.msg1131142#msg1131142

The idea of a YACF challenge came from Caerau in June 2013, following an item on the One show.
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=72564.0

Unless someone can find anything before that of course.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rabbit on 31 December, 2015, 11:29:39 am
Have stayed out of this for a while, but now we are at the end of an amazing year my current thoughts are:

1) Well done Steve you are such an inspiration and I genuinely can't believe how you have continued to ride massive distances daily with everything that has happened on the illness, injury and weather fronts. You will be talked about for years and decades to come and you have reawakened the interest in the HAMR.  It's been amazing to watch from the sidelines.

2) It's time to stop, regroup and have another go in a few years when everything has settled, eating has been tested, health has been given a chance to return properly, and better plans are in place for the practicalities of trying to break the record in the UK with the modern traffic and road conditions.  Or head elsewhere.

If you do continue with the restart attempt, then best of luck.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 31 December, 2015, 11:33:18 am
Another early thread.

https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=58795.msg1211561#msg1211561
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 31 December, 2015, 11:33:33 am
It's important not to lose sight of what Steve has achieved in the past 364 days. 

He is demonstrably one of the most accomplished endurance cyclists of all time, who can look on the legends of first half of the 20th century and justifiably think "I have proven myself a match for them".  There is only one other living person who can also make that claim and he is about to take a record that has stood for longer than most of us have been on this planet.

It's fucking amazeballs.  Awesome.  I feel fortunate to have been witness to an epoch making attempt on a seemingly impossible dream.  I will be toasting Steve's success this evening and wishing him a happy and healthy New Year, wherever it takes him.

I totally agree.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 31 December, 2015, 11:34:50 am
Indeed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 31 December, 2015, 11:52:45 am
Well done Steve for proving you have what it takes to keep riding, day in, day out, for a year. Beyond comprehension for most cyclists, I would imagine. You have already taken one record, despite suffering a broken ankle earlier this year. If you keep going, who knows what you can achieve?

Also to Kurt, what an amazing effort so far. The Tommy Godwin record is in sight. Just a few more days at current pace...

All the best to both riders for 2016, whatever it brings.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 31 December, 2015, 12:25:22 pm
I have a feeling that Steve will continue (concurrent attempt )  to better his first great record in his age group
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 31 December, 2015, 12:27:46 pm
Jo,  how many miles a day would he need to average per day from now on his concurrent challenge to beat what he'll finish up after his attempt
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 31 December, 2015, 12:35:31 pm
Like many on this forum I have watched Steve's attempt with interest and admiration. It looks from the outside that his problems have been caused by two specific issues -

1. Diet - he assumed he could just eat as on an Audax for the whole year. I saw Steve during the attempt once at a stop. McDonnalds, although not a scientific study I also stalked Steve on Strava  to see where he stopped during his rides. Most stops where garages and fast food places. He needs to eat a lot more goodness (minerals and vitamins) not from sports drinks but real food. Nuts, dried fruit, seeds are all high in calories and nutrients - Mcdonalds is high in sugar, fat and calories and little else.

2. He needs to ride faster to get the required rest each day, which is eight hours sleep or else chronic fatigue will set in. We have all burnt bright for a short time on PBP, LEL ... etc but for a whole year the pattern needs to be set and the rest is required. To achieve this Steve needs to stop riding long mileage for a while, have a complete rest and restart with a road racer type of training including short intense rides where he pushes his heart rate and lactic threshold. He will then increase his speed and be able to cruise at higher speeds. All my best long rides were done on the back of fast periods of riding. My preferred preparation for 400 and 600km rides is shorted club rides where I can speed up.

If Steve does not regroup and consider his options then (and I hope I am wrong) we will see a slow decline in mileage with the occasional big day or two followed by a dip.

Steve has nothing to prove to me. He has inspired me from my early days in Audax when during my second (and successful) attempt at the BCM I stopped at Whobley (sp?) on the second day. I ate all sorts of food I had purchased and Steve ate a block of cheese, when I asked him he said it was the only way to get the calories he required because he was going to ride to MK after the finish. We set off together and he dropped me while riding a low cadence on fixed at about 20mph.

So what ever you do Steve I will always admire you and you will have my support, but if you want the record some things have to change.

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 31 December, 2015, 12:41:27 pm
Arry.

Let's say Steve wants to get 64,000
He's currently on 27,000 or thereabouts for the concurrent attempt
He has 219 days to go.

So (64,000 - 27,000)/219 = 169 miles a day.  Or thereabouts. 

This can be refined with more accurate distances, but it gives a sense that he is currently achieving daily distances around the mark he needs to slightly exceed that total.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Oakhambike on 31 December, 2015, 01:17:24 pm
Like many on this forum I have watched Steve's attempt with interest and admiration. It looks from the outside that his problems have been caused by two specific issues -

1. Diet - he assumed he could just eat as on an Audax for the whole year. I saw Steve during the attempt once at a stop. McDonnalds, although not a scientific study I also stalked Steve on Strava  to see where he stopped during his rides. Most stops where garages and fast food places. He needs to eat a lot more goodness (minerals and vitamins) not from sports drinks but real food. Nuts, dried fruit, seeds are all high in calories and nutrients - Mcdonalds is high in sugar, fat and calories and little else.

2. He needs to ride faster to get the required rest each day, which is eight hours sleep or else chronic fatigue will set in. We have all burnt bright for a short time on PBP, LEL ... etc but for a whole year the pattern needs to be set and the rest is required. To achieve this Steve needs to stop riding long mileage for a while, have a complete rest and restart with a road racer type of training including short intense rides where he pushes his heart rate and lactic threshold. He will then increase his speed and be able to cruise at higher speeds. All my best long rides were done on the back of fast periods of riding. My preferred preparation for 400 and 600km rides is shorted club rides where I can speed up.

If Steve does not regroup and consider his options then (and I hope I am wrong) we will see a slow decline in mileage with the occasional big day or two followed by a dip.

Steve has nothing to prove to me. He has inspired me from my early days in Audax when during my second (and successful) attempt at the BCM I stopped at Whobley (sp?) on the second day. I ate all sorts of food I had purchased and Steve ate a block of cheese, when I asked him he said it was the only way to get the calories he required because he was going to ride to MK after the finish. We set off together and he dropped me while riding a low cadence on fixed at about 20mph.

So what ever you do Steve I will always admire you and you will have my support, but if you want the record some things have to change.

BB

+1  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 31 December, 2015, 01:26:27 pm
Arry.

Let's say Steve wants to get 64,000
He's currently on 27,000 or thereabouts for the concurrent attempt
He has 219 days to go.

So (64,000 - 27,000)/219 = 169 miles a day.  Or thereabouts. 

This can be refined with more accurate distances, but it gives a sense that he is currently achieving daily distances around the mark he needs to slightly exceed that total.




Thanks for that swift reply Hillbilly.  I reckon he'll do that  (even with Doctor reccormennded ) rest days
Great and thanks again.
 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 31 December, 2015, 01:41:43 pm
Why bother? That distance would end up 3rd or 4th in the all time list, depending on whether the latest bloke finishes his year. Steve is already 3rd and will be 4th when Kurt finishes.

In round numbers:
To beat Tommy (75,000 - 27,000)/ 219 = 219 miles every day
To beat Kurt (76,000 - 27,000)/ 219 = 223 miles every day
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 31 December, 2015, 02:53:54 pm
Why bother? That distance would end up 3rd or 4th in the all time list, depending on whether the latest bloke finishes his year. Steve is already 3rd and will be 4th when Kurt finishes.

In round numbers:
To beat Tommy (75,000 - 27,000)/ 219 = 219 miles every day
To beat Kurt (76,000 - 27,000)/ 219 = 223 miles every day

Those figures surely put the record beyond reach on this attempt.  That being the case, I can only assume Steve has some other goal in mind.  If that's the case then the new goal should be publicly stated.  People can then decide themselves whether or not to continue their support in full knowledge of the facts.

That's another of Kurt's advantages - as he's self-funded he's under no obligation to explain anything to anyone and is a free agent (other than a couple of commercial sponsors who arrived mid-way and I'm sure aren't particularly bothered about their investment).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 31 December, 2015, 04:28:29 pm
Why bother? That distance would end up 3rd or 4th in the all time list, depending on whether the latest bloke finishes his year. Steve is already 3rd and will be 4th when Kurt finishes.

In round numbers:
To beat Tommy (75,000 - 27,000)/ 219 = 219 miles every day
To beat Kurt (76,000 - 27,000)/ 219 = 223 miles every day

Those figures surely put the record beyond reach on this attempt.  That being the case, I can only assume Steve has some other goal in mind.  If that's the case then the new goal should be publicly stated.  People can then decide themselves whether or not to continue their support in full knowledge of the facts.

That's another of Kurt's advantages - as he's self-funded he's under no obligation to explain anything to anyone and is a free agent (other than a couple of commercial sponsors who arrived mid-way and I'm sure aren't particularly bothered about their investment).

100,000 miles?

When did Tommy hit 100k miles and what average MPD does Steve need from his first attempt?

I say first attempt, because to go for the 100k miles from his second attempt would mean riding beyond August 2016 until completion which would possibly bring him to the end of 2016. :o

Can't happen surely? Anyone know the figures?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 31 December, 2015, 04:36:44 pm
Is the 100000 mile record once that is recognised by UMCA - or any other body? And if so, does the challenger have to state in advance which 100000 miles he or she demands to be recognised for the purposes of two consecutive HAMR attempts?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 31 December, 2015, 04:57:56 pm
When did Tommy hit 100k miles and what average MPD does Steve need from his first attempt?
It took Tommy exactly 500 days

I say first attempt, because to go for the 100k miles from his second attempt would mean riding beyond August 2016 until completion which would possibly bring him to the end of 2016. :o

Can't happen surely? Anyone know the figures?
No.  Using UMCA official results up to 8th December, Jo's daily post after and assuming no improvement on the 115 so far today then Steve's 2015 total is an utterly astonishing 63481.4.  For the 100k he would need a further 36518.6 in 135 days or 270.5mpd. 

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 31 December, 2015, 05:00:40 pm
Can anyone on the team tell us what Steve's target distance is for the August attempt? And what weekly and monthly targets have they set to measure whether it is realistic?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 31 December, 2015, 05:07:53 pm
Can anyone on the team tell us what Steve's target distance is for the August attempt? And what weekly and monthly targets have they set to measure whether it is realistic?
Interesting questions (although I'm pretty sure they are both rhetorical!). Some possible answers:

A) either "The record" or "Godwin's figure (as targetted on 1st Jan 2015) with a stretch goal of Kurt's  "

B) A bit odd; have any other recent attempts had such targets?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 31 December, 2015, 05:16:34 pm
Those figures surely put the record beyond reach on this attempt.  That being the case, I can only assume Steve has some other goal in mind.  If that's the case then the new goal should be publicly stated.  People can then decide themselves whether or not to continue their support in full knowledge of the facts.

That.

I've been supporting Steve all year via a Standing Order. I would be delighted to continue to do that if I knew what he is now trying to achieve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 31 December, 2015, 05:28:35 pm
Can anyone on the team tell us what Steve's target distance is for the August attempt? And what weekly and monthly targets have they set to measure whether it is realistic?
Interesting questions (although I'm pretty sure they are both rhetorical!). Some possible answers:

A) either "The record" or "Godwin's figure (as targetted on 1st Jan 2015) with a stretch goal of Kurt's  "

B) A bit odd; have any other recent attempts had such targets?

Well, as I said above, there needs to be a get-out clause in every major project and if there is a specific target milage in mind for August, then what is it? It's pretty easy, by doing some sums, to find out whether the end target is still achievable.

Most of us, of course, have already done those sums. It would be good to see the Team's thinking on this.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 31 December, 2015, 05:44:43 pm
100,000 miles?

When did Tommy hit 100k miles and what average MPD does Steve need from his first attempt?

I say first attempt, because to go for the 100k miles from his second attempt would mean riding beyond August 2016 until completion which would possibly bring him to the end of 2016. :o

Can't happen surely? Anyone know the figures?

Tommy did the 100k miles in 500 days so ramped down his daily distances in the opening months of 1940.  Though I believe the winter of 1939-40 was pretty grim.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 31 December, 2015, 05:45:37 pm
Why did the Team go cold on YACF / the audax community?

This is essentially Steve's background, or even cycling 'home', is probably where most of his supporters are and where most of his support has come from. But there seemed to be some break earlier in the year. Hence info occasionally comes out via press articles, such as the very good one by Zoe Williams the other day, or Facebook. But none of the team post here. And supporters / sponsors don't get told anything either. Steve obviously does post the odd update on here. But he hasn't got a lot of time! 

Hence we don't know the answers to the very pertinent questions above. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 31 December, 2015, 05:46:02 pm
Due to the blackout, Tommy was virtually riding without lights through his second winter.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 31 December, 2015, 05:49:39 pm
Why did the Team go cold on YACF / the audax community?

Given some of what is posted, especially in this thread, are you really in the dark?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 31 December, 2015, 05:52:49 pm
The justifiable criticism and questions have come a long time after Steve's team climbed into their bunker. Their whole secrecy thing started ages ago.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 31 December, 2015, 05:59:08 pm
I'm sure Roger the (ex)Moneyman posted about there being hostility/suspicion from the start by the team towards YACF members.

Doesn't bother me too much, but it is a bit of a liberty given they were happy enough to take our coin.

The reason for the bunker mentality is genuinely beyond me.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 31 December, 2015, 06:05:34 pm
In fairness to the whole money ting. I don't recall there being any mention of donors receiving monthly updates, special dispensation, etc over non doners. You agree to give some money then you agree to give some money - end of.

Having said that now that the record looks very much out of reach, and Steve's only goal was to get the HAMR then those in the know should say what is going on. Because after today it won't make any sense. If Steve wants to better the record that he'll set at the the stroke of midnight he is better off starting afresh rather than carrying on.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Charlie Boy on 31 December, 2015, 06:12:44 pm
In fairness to the whole money ting. I don't recall there being any mention of donors receiving monthly updates, special dispensation, etc over non doners. You agree to give some money then you agree to give some money - end of.

Having said that now that the record looks very much out of reach, and Steve's only goal was to get the HAMR then those in the know should say what is going on. Because after today it won't make any sense. If Steve wants to better the record that he'll set at the the stroke of midnight he is better off starting afresh rather than carrying on.

I disagree. It's only courteous of the team to keep those paying for it informed.

And it would also stifle an awful lot of speculation and rumour.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: nextSibling on 31 December, 2015, 06:18:15 pm
Why did the Team go cold on YACF / the audax community?

Given some of what is posted, especially in this thread, are you really in the dark?

I am. Any publicly discussed venture, however worthwhile and laudable, will always attract a range of positive and negative commentary. The way to deflect and neutralise the negative and build from the positive is to attract and involve supporters by managed sharing of frequent positive news, not by hiding. Clamming up just encourages uncontrolled, uninformed, negative speculation. Like is posted here, especially in this thread. This is beginner-level PR.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 31 December, 2015, 06:19:15 pm
Can anyone on the team tell us what Steve's target distance is for the August attempt? And what weekly and monthly targets have they set to measure whether it is realistic?
Interesting questions (although I'm pretty sure they are both rhetorical!). Some possible answers:

A) either "The record" or "Godwin's figure (as targetted on 1st Jan 2015) with a stretch goal of Kurt's  "

B) A bit odd; have any other recent attempts had such targets?

Well, as I said above, there needs to be a get-out clause in every major project and if there is a specific target milage in mind for August, then what is it? It's pretty easy, by doing some sums, to find out whether the end target is still achievable.

Most of us, of course, have already done those sums. It would be good to see the Team's thinking on this.
I dont recall Kurt making any such statements (or Miles, or Bruce, or IronOx ... ), and I dont recall you asking these questions back in December or after The Moped Incident.

How come you've gone all Dragons Den now?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Charlie Boy on 31 December, 2015, 06:20:16 pm
Why did the Team go cold on YACF / the audax community?

Given some of what is posted, especially in this thread, are you really in the dark?

I am. Any publicly discussed venture, however worthwhile and laudable, will always attract a range of positive and negative commentary. The way to deflect and neutralise the negative and build from the positive is to attract and involve supporters by managed sharing of frequent positive news, not by hiding. Clamming up just encourages uncontrolled, uninformed, negative speculation. Like is posted here, especially in this thread. This is beginner-level PR.

Precisely, and much more eloquently put than I managed!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 31 December, 2015, 06:21:57 pm

How come you've gone all Dragons Den now?

Well, it is a lot more watchable now they've got rid of Duncan ruddy Bannatyne.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 31 December, 2015, 06:23:54 pm
The justifiable criticism and questions have come a long time after Steve's team climbed into their bunker. Their whole secrecy thing started ages ago.

I agree that the lack of pr from the team and the secrecy is difficult to comprehend, and an openness would have help rather than alienate some supporters. However, whilst I can only piece together team members from reading posts and CitizenFish's book, it is not true that all the team avoid this thread; indeed it doesn't need them all commenting but a co-ordinated approach and more information would have been undoubtedly helpful for what is a very public attempt.

Neverttheless my very best wishes to Steve and all his team and former team for 2016
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 31 December, 2015, 06:39:10 pm
@Matt C: I don't know what the expression to "Go all Dragon's Den" means.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 31 December, 2015, 06:43:40 pm
I'll be interested to see if Kurt gets much recognition for his achievement.
I would hope so, unless the cycling fraternity is so up their own as to be beyond sane consideration - it won't be many more days when, talking about Steve's ride for the day, the expression "that's X amount of miles to a Godwin" will be basically, completely irrelevant. There will most likely be a new name at the top of the register. And if anybody's got any nous whatsoever, they'll be looking at how he managed to do it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 31 December, 2015, 06:51:39 pm
I'm sure Roger the (ex)Moneyman posted about there being hostility/suspicion from the start by the team towards YACF members.

Hmm. I wonder why?  ;D

I reckon if the team had to respond to all the "concerns" expressed on here they'd have no time left to support Steve. Hardly surprising if they feel the best policy is to stay well out of it...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 31 December, 2015, 06:52:23 pm
I'll be interested to see if Kurt gets much recognition for his achievement.
I would hope so, unless the cycling fraternity is so up their own as to be beyond sane consideration - it won't be many more days when, talking about Steve's ride for the day, the expression "that's X amount of miles to a Godwin" will be basically, completely irrelevant. There will most likely be a new name at the top of the register. And if anybody's got any nous whatsoever, they'll be looking at how he managed to do it.

As a start I'd say:-

Easiest routing possible, avoiding hills and as a bonus ride with a tailwind.

I'd say 30kph minimum average speed.

But most important imo, is to get into a routine regarding when you are sleeping and riding. Helps the system to adjust and aids recovery - massively. I'm fairly certain Jo has got somewhere the start and finish times of Kurt for any given days rding. You look at how consistent they are compared to Steve's.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 31 December, 2015, 06:56:15 pm
@Matt C: I don't know what the expression to "Go all Dragon's Den" means.
I'm terribly sorry your honour. :D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 31 December, 2015, 06:57:53 pm
But most important imo, is to get into a routine regarding when you are sleeping and riding. Helps the system to adjust and aids recovery - massively. I'm fairly certain Jo has got somewhere the start and finish times of Kurt for any given days rding. You look at how consistent they are compared to Steve's.

Miles was a rather extreme example of an erratic riding pattern, and that didn't turn out so well  I started worrying for Steve when his start times got progressively later.  I know this was explained as wind-cheating, but I can't really see how this record can be broken by choosing to do so much night riding.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 31 December, 2015, 06:59:42 pm
Why did the Team go cold on YACF / the audax community?

Given some of what is posted, especially in this thread, are you really in the dark?

That was not my question.  Some info comes from Facebook or elsewhere and gets re-posted here.  I just wondered why there had been the decision taken to put what information was released onto Facebook rather than here.  Steve, as far as I am aware, is not a big Facebooker, but he is obviously well known here.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Charlie Boy on 31 December, 2015, 07:05:25 pm
I'm sure Roger the (ex)Moneyman posted about there being hostility/suspicion from the start by the team towards YACF members.

Hmm. I wonder why?  ;D

I reckon if the team had to respond to all the "concerns" expressed on here they'd have no time left to support Steve. Hardly surprising if they feel the best policy is to stay well out of it...

I don't think anyone is suggesting they should. But there are enough people who have suggested that regular updates would be appreciated, to warrant them IMHO.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 31 December, 2015, 07:06:38 pm
In fairness to the whole money ting. I don't recall there being any mention of donors receiving monthly updates, special dispensation, etc over non doners. You agree to give some money then you agree to give some money - end of.

I agree (except for "ting" - it's tHing !!! ).

There was no contract drawn-up by sponsors/donors. Nobody made demands a year ago.

When comms were discussed a few months back, someone (jaded?) mentioned what commercial sponsors expect from endurance feats; it depends. We - the public - don't usually know.

In many cases a sponsor just wants to see their name on the car/balloon/yacht - or on the event website.
Some expect their driver/rider to attend dinners, sign autographs etc. This will be specified upfront. They'd be pretty fecking stupid to require Steve to take time-out from riding.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 31 December, 2015, 07:07:42 pm


As a start I'd say:-

Easiest routing possible, avoiding hills and as a bonus ride with a tailwind.


It appears to me Kurt has ridden a more hilly route than Steve.

The HAMR leaderboard has mileage and total elevation for each rider.

Dividing the respective figures gives 21.8 feet per mile for Kurt, and 21.0 feet per mile for Steve.

Only a few inches in it, but the notion Kurt has taken the easier option of flat routes is false - assuming I've done the arithmetic correctly.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 31 December, 2015, 07:15:05 pm


As a start I'd say:-

Easiest routing possible, avoiding hills and as a bonus ride with a tailwind.


It appears to me Kurt has ridden a more hilly route than Steve.

The HAMR leaderboard has mileage and total elevation for each rider.

Dividing the respective figures gives 21.8 feet per mile for Kurt, and 21.0 feet per mile for Steve.

Only a few inches in it, but the notion Kurt has taken the easier option of flat routes is false - assuming I've done the arithmetic correctly.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

You've not used LFL figures wrt milage.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 31 December, 2015, 07:16:28 pm


As a start I'd say:-

Easiest routing possible, avoiding hills and as a bonus ride with a tailwind.


It appears to me Kurt has ridden a more hilly route than Steve.

The HAMR leaderboard has mileage and total elevation for each rider.

Dividing the respective figures gives 21.8 feet per mile for Kurt, and 21.0 feet per mile for Steve.

Only a few inches in it, but the notion Kurt has taken the easier option of flat routes is false - assuming I've done the arithmetic correctly.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

Yes, I saw that the other day, and thought.....'err, what, that can't be true surely, how the hell does that work?'

Maybe the inclines have been over a longer distance on better road surfaces and the descents nice and gradual,maybe making it easier to ride [if that's possible].

No idea. But I did think it was an interesting and also also somewhat dumbfounding statistic.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 31 December, 2015, 07:22:02 pm
Yes, I saw that somewhere the other day too.  I was surprised, but I've not followed Kurt very closely.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: teamcinzano on 31 December, 2015, 07:51:06 pm
Yes, I saw that somewhere the other day too.  I was surprised, but I've not followed Kurt very closely.

Kurt hasn't done his all his miles in Florida. Wisconsin and Arkansas, the two other main locations of his effort, are not flat places, but rolling terrain. Northern Arkansas (where Little Rock is) is in an ancient mountain range called the Ozarks. The parts of Wisconsin that weren't razed by glaciers are constant up and down.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 31 December, 2015, 08:11:48 pm
There was no contract drawn-up by sponsors/donors. Nobody made demands a year ago.

I have no idea whether contracts were drawn up for sponsors. Do you have any insider knowledge on this?

And no-one's making "demands" now. We're simply asking, politely, to know what Steve's intentions are. Because we get no reply we keep on asking.

In any case a year ago no-one would have suspected there'd be such a dearth of information. Looking at the oneYearTimeTrial web site news section, the most recent entries are dated 1st Dec and 14th July...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 31 December, 2015, 08:19:38 pm
Having left the team -- i have tried not to post in any way that seems to be counter productive for Steve's efforts. I was and still am in complete awe of the person whose determination to attack the Tommy record led to him riding one legged round the MK bowl - and despite the accident when it was obvious that the 2015 record was unachievable ( other than his age group record) still got up every day , battled with some digestive problem and yet still clocked over 60,000 miles. STEVE YOU HAVE BEEN AN OUTSTANDING ATHLETE , EARNING THE RESPECT AND ADMIRATION OF ALL WHO KNOW YOU.

But the year is over now and I feel i can at least  make some of my personal feelings known --i.e.  ..  you should not take significant sums of money including a lot on an ongoing basis from donors without feeling a responsibility to keep them informed .. not daily .. not necessarily weekly .. but at least monthly and maybe also when  something interesting crops up.

Dislike of YACF .. comes from the approach of the team leader who perceived that any information about Steve and his plans , performance , problems -- in fact anything at all would potentially be helpful to Kurt -- with his 10 day time buffer. The team leader  was deeply suspicious of the help offered by very senior Audax members -- such as HK , LW&B,( including comment that they were deliberately trying to scupper Steve and Hoppo's  attempt  when  there was a bottle of wine in the  back of a photo),  Aidan H was  seen as suspicious when he tried to sort some of Steves communication, computerisation  , and lighting problems, because he was friendly with Hk etc.   I was threatened on two separate occasions with immediate dismissal  for a YACF post ( made me smile at the absurdity of the written  CAPITALISED  rant as all money was coming to me -- so it was not clear how I could be dismissed) . There were never any team discussions about how to help Steve -- the attitude was always ... it is Steves ride, he knows what he is doing .. do not even bother to think about making any suggestions. Even when it was obvious that Steve had made a mistake ie not sleeping before starting PBP -- the team was told to shut up .... Steve knows best. There was no team conversation about the best restart date .. and I still believe thta a pause with the 2nd attempt starting on 1.1 16 with a new approach and possibly a different team would have given Steve a decent chance at the record.

But on the other hand -- the MK support has been completely behind Steve all year -- and to the best of my knowledge have put 100% effort into looking after him , being in the right place at the right time .. and providing him with total support.

It has become obvious over time that this record requires something way beyond an amateur approach .. it needs very serious planning and colossal support ( not just financially -- which Steve has had ) but in more areas than I can separately list. This inclines me to believe that the second attempt is destined to fail.. BUT .. if a dedicated team could be found, put their heads together and plotted a serious attempt beginning 1.1.17 then the rider who might be able to take the record  does exist in UK -- and that is Steve.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 31 December, 2015, 08:24:01 pm
Blimey.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 31 December, 2015, 08:27:38 pm
Well there we have it!  What we have suspected all along - a suspicion verging on paranoia of letting any information out.  It should have been obvious to anyone with any PR skills at all that that was destined to be not only unnecessary but utterly counter-productive.  Did they not even consider that a crowd-funded project would, and indeed should, be open to enquiries from the funders!!?

There was so much good-will for this project, mainly because most of us know and have admired Steve for years.  That should have been harnessed (not just financially) for the good of the challenge.  Instead we have been blocked out and actually seen as the enemy.  Amazing!!

Thanks for reminding us that there were/are two parts to the team - the guys in MK have been doing an amazing job.  As for the others.....  As FB says, a challenge like this needs a certain level of professionalism and, above all, teamwork.  This team is plainly disfunctional.

Thanks FB for giving us a rare and much-needed glimpse into what's actually been going on for the last year.  There has been so much speculation, filling the void of communication.  Now at least we've had some of our suspicions confirmed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: nextSibling on 31 December, 2015, 08:43:47 pm
in fact anything at all would potentially be helpful to Kurt

Bizarre. I'm at a loss to understand how. How could Kurt possibly gain anything from knowledge of Steve's approach? The most, and probably only, useful information - distance covered - is already public knowledge and updated continuously.

Meanwhile, Kurt and Alicia seem to be regularly posting pictures, videos, stories, news about the ups and downs of their progress all over social media and I don't see Steve's team using it to cunning strategic advantage.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 31 December, 2015, 08:45:51 pm
in fact anything at all would potentially be helpful to Kurt

Bizarre. I'm at a loss to understand how. How could Kurt possibly gain anything from knowledge of Steve's approach? The most, and probably only, useful information - distance covered - is already public knowledge and updated continuously.

Meanwhile, Kurt and Alicia seem to be regularly posting pictures, videos, stories, news about the ups and downs of their progress all over social media and I don't see Steve's team using it to cunning strategic advantage.

Some of us were saying this back in February but were dismissed as falling for Kurt's "low-level PR"!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 31 December, 2015, 08:47:19 pm
What Wobbly said :o
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 31 December, 2015, 08:49:08 pm
Well, there you go.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Canardly on 31 December, 2015, 08:49:28 pm
Thanks for the insight FB.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 31 December, 2015, 08:52:15 pm
What a fuck up, I pity Steve for having put in such an amazing effort with all this shite in the background. If they put in as much effort as they did trying to suppress what you can look up on the UMCA website...

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 31 December, 2015, 09:10:33 pm
Hmm. Although clearly Steve's Jan to jan approach was doomed after his broken ankle, and that can't be attributed to poor leadership, with hindsight, the August restart was probably a mistake given what we know now. Continuing after such a serious health report in October was very poor management indeed.

If the objective is to break the record (ie aim at 80k miles in 365 days) then Steve has to restart after sufficient rest, recuperation, building a new team, and lots of planning. Anything else is a complete waste of time, resources and goodwill.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 31 December, 2015, 09:10:54 pm
Well, there you go.

You've always shown more self-control than me.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 31 December, 2015, 09:17:53 pm
Absolutely.  I'm not going to beat about the bush; Steve deserves better than to be associated with such a self-serving, pompous <redacted>.

A superb physical effort, let down by a failure of communication within and outside the 'team'.

(BTW - Do the donors know even a rough breakdown of expenditure and fund balance?  I'm under the impression that they're not informed of this.  AFAIK, the only info spread out is along the lines of FB saying things like "the money situation's okay", or "there'd be enough for X, Y, Z"...)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 31 December, 2015, 09:25:05 pm
.  I know this was explained as wind-cheating, but I can't really see how this record can be broken by choosing to do so much night riding.
[/qu





Plus one
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: wajcgac on 31 December, 2015, 09:25:32 pm


As a start I'd say:-

Easiest routing possible, avoiding hills and as a bonus ride with a tailwind.


It appears to me Kurt has ridden a more hilly route than Steve.

The HAMR leaderboard has mileage and total elevation for each rider.

Dividing the respective figures gives 21.8 feet per mile for Kurt, and 21.0 feet per mile for Steve.

Only a few inches in it, but the notion Kurt has taken the easier option of flat routes is false - assuming I've done the arithmetic correctly.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

Nothing wrong with your maths but I'd question the climbing data on the HAMR spreadsheet

1617721 feet of climbing equates to 493,000 metres approx.

Divide that by 356 days gives just shy of 1400 metres of climbing per day.

Looking back through Kurts Strava records the last days he did that amount of climbing were Oct 11th, Sept 17th, Aug 22nd, 26th July (in Wisconsin) - most days are way under this.

I wouldn't be surprised if his actual climbing was around half that figure bearing in mind that the early part of the year was spent in Florida as well.

I know on some days Kurts Garmin was waterlogged and gave a hugely erroneous climbing figure. Maybe somehow these have been included in the HAMR total before Strava has applied it's own data and corrected the figures. You won't find these extreme figures on Strava now.

It's a shame about this because it gives an incorrect impression to the casual observer and in my mind doesn't do justice to one aspect of the UK geography that Steve is disadvantaged by.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 31 December, 2015, 09:27:40 pm
u've gone all Dragons Den now?


Well, it is a lot more watchable now they've got rid of Duncan ruddy Bannatyne.



Ducan was THE BEST
[/quote]




Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 31 December, 2015, 09:45:31 pm

(BTW - Do the donors know even a rough breakdown of expenditure and fund balance?  I'm under the impression that they're not informed of this.  AFAIK, the only info spread out is along the lines of FB saying things like "the money situation's okay", or "there'd be enough for X, Y, Z"...)

I know exactly how much was handed over not only when i stood down but from the continuing standing orders. i also know how much is still coming in thru Paypal as one off donations. On expenditure -- without having updated info -- I have seen no obvious change of pattern other than possibly paying for a couple of transport relocations and maybe some medical and nutritional advice.  In my opinion if all funding stopped now, there would be enough in the pot to fund the 2nd attempt to 7th Aug 2016 and still leave a 5 figure sum to be donated to charity  -- but using some of the surplus at 8.8.16 to allow Steve to settle back into " real" life might be seen as reasonable.

I have been reticent about being specific as to sums -- because of the possibility thta donors might have felt there was no need to continue supporting -- and yet when I was involved there could have been a totally unforecast call for a significant sum -- but still within the ethos of attempting the record   ie - relocate to france , hire a gite for 3 months etc etc -- so by choice I have never felt it appropriate to be more specific than to say -- your generosity amazes me, there is enough to see us thru to 8.8.16 etc.

I think I saw a comment somewhere recently that the undertaking to donate a surplus to charity was no longer on the 1YTT web page -- I do hope I am imagining this .. as if it was right -- I would find it very difficult to believe that Steve himself had approved the change.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: wajcgac on 31 December, 2015, 09:51:25 pm
Quote
Of course, with commercial sponsors supplying equipment, our costs will go down. We are hoping that we raise more money than is needed and that this becomes a charity fundraiser. Beneficiaries are currently undecided, though cancer and children's charities are being considered.

Thankfully still there.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bunker22 on 31 December, 2015, 10:08:32 pm
There was no contract drawn-up by sponsors/donors. Nobody made demands a year ago.

I have no idea whether contracts were drawn up for sponsors. Do you have any insider knowledge on this?

And no-one's making "demands" now. We're simply asking, politely, to know what Steve's intentions are. Because we get no reply we keep on asking.

In any case a year ago no-one would have suspected there'd be such a dearth of information. Looking at the oneYearTimeTrial web site news section, the most recent entries are dated 1st Dec and 14th July...

29 posts in January and February, and then 5 for the rest of the year!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LEE on 31 December, 2015, 10:24:47 pm
It's a shame it's ended up like this.

It seems that Steve IS the 4th greatest annual mile-muncher in the history of the Bicycle. 

To be honest, given British weather and a broken ankle, he wouldn't need to cycle another mile in order to be, and remain, a cycling legend in my eyes.

I've always been of the opinion that Steve should take on the record in the way he, and only he, wants to break it. 

There's no point in him breaking the record, by flying to more hospitable climes, and terrain, (for example) if he isn't satisfied with the record done that way.

I can't be bothered checking my posts on the matter but I HOPE I never gave Steve any advice on the best way to break the record.  Ultimately I suspect he wants to do it his way or he won't consider it broken. 

Go Steve!!!! .. in whatever you choose to do.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 31 December, 2015, 10:40:29 pm
It's a shame it's ended up like this.

It seems that Steve IS the 4th greatest annual mile-muncher in the history of the Bicycle. 

To be honest, given British weather and a broken ankle, he wouldn't need to cycle another mile in order to be, and remain, a cycling legend in my eyes.

I've always been of the opinion that Steve should take on the record in the way he, and only he, wants to break it. 

There's no point in him breaking the record, by flying to more hospitable climes, and terrain, (for example) if he isn't satisfied with the record done that way.

I can't be bothered checking my posts on the matter but I HOPE I never gave Steve any advice on the best way to break the record.  Ultimately I suspect he wants to do it his way or he won't consider it broken. 

Go Steve!!!! .. in whatever you choose to do.
Good post LEE :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 31 December, 2015, 10:42:54 pm
OK.  I'm bored with this thread now as it doesn't seem to go anywhere except over and over the same ground.
All I'll add is that if Steve continues after midnight tonight, I'd like to be told why.  In other words, I'd like to know what the goal is.  Is there a target?  TG?  KS? (Both seem unlikely). As much as possible?  Is there any sort of goal at all?
We deserve some sort of answer at least.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 31 December, 2015, 10:56:26 pm
It seems that Steve IS the 4th greatest annual mile-muncher in the history of the Bicycle. 

To be honest, given British weather and a broken ankle, he wouldn't need to cycle another mile in order to be, and remain, a cycling legend in my eyes.

That. In spades.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mileater on 31 December, 2015, 11:03:32 pm
Fidgetbuzz, has the donors' money been going through the Team Leader? Or directly to Steve? Worried... who is making sure that Steve is getting the full benefit of the funds? Is there any oversight?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 31 December, 2015, 11:10:59 pm
I pay directly into a Steve personal account. Team at one stage wanted several to have access to this account -- I wrote a personal letter to Steve advising strongly against this. i have no knowledge whether he took this advice or not. At one stage I was convinced that I had a responsibility to donors which meant that I could not resign  .... but in the end I decided that as you were all donating to Steve - provided I ensured that the funds got to him -- then I had no responsibility for what he did with them -- so then I felt able to step away.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 31 December, 2015, 11:28:53 pm
I have to say I'm not surprised by anything FB has said - there's been plenty of circumstantial evidence that the 'team leadership' has been a bit of an ego-trip for one or two individuals, has bizarrely worked against the interests of Steve and the record, and has treated his loyal supporters as tantamount to saboteurs. The idea that information should not be given out to those paying for this effort runs against any conventions of fund-raising and charity-funded events. I am truly sorry that Steve has had to work under such odd conditions, and have to say that it's even more amazing that he's achieved what he has.

It's also obvious that the domestic team in MK should be warmly thanked and congratulated for their unstinting support throughout - a better PR machine would have brought them to our attention far more prominently.

I'd also like to know what is the aim now, and how is it to be delivered?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Glover Fan on 31 December, 2015, 11:44:44 pm
From latest Strava entry: -

"Last day of the first attempt at the Highest Annual Mileage Record. Didn't exactly go to plan. But still 8 months and a week of fun left at attempt 2."

That's your answer folks.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 31 December, 2015, 11:48:45 pm
Steve seems to be a month out in his figures.  Either a mis-type or wishful thinking?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 31 December, 2015, 11:49:22 pm
I reckon so.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 31 December, 2015, 11:51:14 pm
From latest Strava entry: -

"Last day of the first attempt at the Highest Annual Mileage Record. Didn't exactly go to plan. But still 8 months and a week of fun left at attempt 2."

That's your answer folks.

OK.  Now we know. 

Good luck Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Psychler on 31 December, 2015, 11:53:06 pm
Just now on Facebook

Quote
One year done and 8 months and a week to go
This guy knows how I feel about that

Ozzy Osbourne I Don't Wanna To Stop HD
YOUTUBE.COM
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 31 December, 2015, 11:55:36 pm
And on Twitter:

"1 year done 8 months and a week to go #HAMR #HNY2016" along with an Ozzy Osbourne video.

Seems like Steve's doing all his own PR now.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 01 January, 2016, 12:01:23 am
Oh well. Happy New Year, Steve, and may it bring better luck than 2016.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 01 January, 2016, 12:14:41 am
Oh well. Happy New Year, Steve, and may it bring better luck than 2016.

Has Wowbagger got access to a TARDIS or is 2016 really that shit despite only being quarter of an hour old ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 01 January, 2016, 12:19:56 am
Oh well. Happy New Year, Steve, and may it bring better luck than 2016.

Has Wowbagger got access to a TARDIS or is 2016 really that shit despite only being quarter of an hour old ;D

2016 was so shit, we had an immediate restart.  It's now 2017.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: drgannet on 01 January, 2016, 02:04:15 am
Steve seems to be a month out in his figures.  Either a mis-type or wishful thinking?

Could someone post a messaage on FB letting Steve know he only has 7 months and a week (I don't do FB so can't)? Mind you, if he did have 8 months then he would still have a chance at the record...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mileater on 01 January, 2016, 02:56:16 am
I pay directly into a Steve personal account. Team at one stage wanted several to have access to this account -- I wrote a personal letter to Steve advising strongly against this. i have no knowledge whether he took this advice or not. At one stage I was convinced that I had a responsibility to donors which meant that I could not resign  .... but in the end I decided that as you were all donating to Steve - provided I ensured that the funds got to him -- then I had no responsibility for what he did with them -- so then I felt able to step away.

So basically you are saying there is no way to be sure that donations are going to support TG and not to his team leader? This is concerning for those of us who donate money. It sounds like a lot of cash. Is no one auditing this to make sure the funds are being spent by Steve for his needs and not by others? I doubt TG has time to comb through his account statements. I can't think of any charity that does not have an independent auditor. That the team leader wanted the finance manager gone really worries me.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 01 January, 2016, 07:44:15 am
And on Twitter:

"1 year done 8 months and a week to go #HAMR #HNY2016" along with an Ozzy Osbourne video.

Seems like Steve's doing all his own PR now.

Well the self publicity machine seems a lot more frank and open than the previous set up, even if the dates are out. (After riding 63,000+ my brain might be addled too).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 01 January, 2016, 08:18:48 am
Well, there you go.

You've always shown more self-control than me.

Well, you know me, I wouldn't want to go and upset anybody.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ian H on 01 January, 2016, 09:00:00 am
I have to say I'm not surprised by anything FB has said

Neither am I, not even the snide insinuations of impropriety.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 01 January, 2016, 09:08:26 am
There was no contract drawn-up by sponsors/donors. Nobody made demands a year ago.

I have no idea whether contracts were drawn up for sponsors. Do you have any insider knowledge on this?

Sorry, i phrased that very badly!

I meant there is no contract for the "public" donors e.g. if you or I donate when entering an AUK event.

( I for one have seen no contract for the commercial sponsors, or even AUK. )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 01 January, 2016, 09:12:39 am
Arry.

Let's say Steve wants to get 64,000
He's currently on 27,000 or thereabouts for the concurrent attempt
He has 219 days to go.

So (64,000 - 27,000)/219 = 169 miles a day.  Or thereabouts. 

This can be refined with more accurate distances, but it gives a sense that he is currently achieving daily distances around the mark he needs to slightly exceed that total.





With only needing to average around 170 per day to beat his first record for his age group he should beat that ok. Because of his extremely tired mind and body he probably cannot get his head around numbers but as I suspected he is continuing, perhaps still in the believe he will somehow recover his lost miles and go on to beat Kurt's record.  We all know that's a NO NO but don't think he does.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 01 January, 2016, 09:16:59 am
Current thoughts on the "Current Thoughts on the record attempt" thread:

I think it's time to break-off some of these issues into another thread. This one has been an unpleasant place for way too long. There are varoious reasons but two main ones:
- there is too much noise (if someone posts some number-crunching say, any discussion is interrupted by a dozen posts about panniers or Gibbons!).
- incompatible agendas. Its pretty obvious that some of us just arent going to agree on a numbert of things, yet we keep posting our thoughts on those things. And then we argue about them. Again. And again ...

So I think I shall create a
2016 Puppies Rainbows and Unicorns thread
- if you see yourself more aligned to mattc-type posts, join in;
- if you want to post about how crap the team is, or how impossible the current task is (which are perfectly valid forum topics!), keep it here.

How does that sound???
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 01 January, 2016, 09:21:32 am
I don't like the flavour of many posts here, too, but I am concerned that by focussing on Puppies Rainbows and Unicorns you are ignoring kittens. That is simply not right and I have the statistics to prove it. 98% of user days on the Internet involve kittens at some point.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 09:23:37 am
Ian, nobody doubts your integrity or that of Steve's other active support crew.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 01 January, 2016, 09:36:59 am

I think it's time to break-off some of these issues into another thread. This one has been an unpleasant place for way too long. There are various reasons but two main ones:
- there is too much noise (if someone posts some number-crunching say, any discussion is interrupted by a dozen posts about panniers or Gibbons!).
- incompatible agendas. Its pretty obvious that some of us just aren't going to agree on a number of things, yet we keep posting our thoughts on those things. And then we argue about them. Again. And again ...

So I think I shall create a
2016 Puppies Rainbows and Unicorns thread
- if you see yourself more aligned to mattc-type posts, join in;
- if you want to post about how crap the team is, or how impossible the current task is (which are perfectly valid forum topics!), keep it here.

How does that sound???

That sounds like you wanting to create a space where you can dominate the discussion.  If there has been a single source of nastiness in this thread then it has been from your posts.  If anyone disagrees with your viewpoint, your first reaction is to respond with sarcastic and aggressive posts (yes - even including the dreaded capitalisation in large font).

Maybe you have to live with the fact that not everyone will agree with your viewpoint.  You don't have a monopoly on the truth any more than anyone else here.  To set up a thread where you dictate the agenda is just another example of an arrogance we can do without - although others may disagree.

Anyway, all this is distracting from the fact that Steve has had a remarkable year.  Truly a roller-coaster and an amazing achievement.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 01 January, 2016, 09:41:42 am
That sounds like you wanting to create a space where you can dominate the discussion.  If there has been a single source of nastiness in this thread then it has been from your posts.
thanks for that. I dont agree with it, but that's life!


Quote
Maybe you have to live with the fact that not everyone will agree with your viewpoint.
I am well aware of this fact. I tried to make that clear in my post - obviously not clear enough for you. Hey ho ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 01 January, 2016, 09:57:49 am
Sounds like to me if and when he does stop to rest and recuperate, part of that will obviously involve sacking the team and getting a new one. So it's not in any of the current team's best interests for him to stop because for them it will be terminal, even if not for Steve himself.
From their perspective, they have a very very slight chance of getting the record, compared to absolutely zero chance of ever getting it if he stops.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 01 January, 2016, 09:58:56 am
Who is looking after Steve's well being? You know the stuff apart from the cycling, feeding and schedule?

All the isolation involved must be mentally hard and having a 10 minute chat at night and asking for a Big Mac is not enough human contact.

Also are we now watching someone without an objective? Maybe Steve is just happy riding around all day and that is the objective? God knows there are times when I have thought I would like someone to pay the bills so I could ride every day.

I have always supported Steve and now feel he needs friendship. If it was a boxing match a good trainer would have thrown the towel in. Time to bask in the glory of what you have achieved, regroup and refocus what ever this involves.

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 10:04:26 am
Ben, you are very wide of the mark and that post does you no credit. The team's motivations for continuing to support Steve have nothing to do with being 'out of a job'. All are volunteers and, particularly for the MK support, their roles have hugely impacted on the rest of their lives.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 01 January, 2016, 10:06:21 am
Not about money though is it. I would assume they've all got day jobs anyway and recognise that they are volunteers. I'm speculating on the potential motivations rather than trying to cast negative aspersions. But sorry if I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 10:20:55 am
For some folk, it is all about "Never quit, regardless!"

I strongly disagree with that approach for Steve's record attempt but it could be considered an 'honourable' attitude.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 01 January, 2016, 10:36:04 am
For some folk, it is all about "Never quit, regardless!"

I strongly disagree with that approach for Steve's record attempt but it could be considered an 'honourable' attitude.

Hmm, not so much saying it's dishonorable but more that there seems no exit strategy, they just possibly haven't considered the wisdom or even possibility of a team other than them.
Like football managers - they don't resign do they, they are always sacked, but that doesn't mean they wish their team ill will.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rabbit on 01 January, 2016, 10:38:39 am
Steve's a big boy.  I doubt he gives two hoots about the negativity on this thread, other people's opinions or what any of us say regarding the team. 

He's already said he listens/reads advice, digests it and rules most of it out. 

I don't feel we need to 'protect' a grown man from peoples internet waffle.  Steve is an exceptionally intelligent and driven human being, do you really think anything posted here makes any difference?  I doubt it. I'm sure he is more capable than most of us in filtering out the wheat from the chaff with regard to his life!

I would love it if he stopped the second attempt right now.  I know he won't because of me or others who are keen to see him repair and rejuvenate.  He will only do that when he is ready, and I suspect that will be in 7 or so months when the date arrives to stop.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 10:39:09 am
Just hypothetically, what happens when Steve doesn't quit? He could keep launching additional overlapping attempts, even when (as is now the case) he has no chance of breaking the record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rabbit on 01 January, 2016, 10:44:37 am
Just hypothetically, what happens when Steve doesn't quit? He could keep launching additional overlapping attempts, even when (as is now the case) he has no chance of breaking the record.

HALM  (highest annual lifetime mileage)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 10:46:45 am
Steve has got to exceed a million miles by a significant amount (and counting) to do that.

http://miles4melanoma.com/freddiehoffman/
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 01 January, 2016, 11:06:06 am
Is every time an athlete pounds down the track doing the 100 metres or a time trialist hunches over the bars a failure if ultimately they don't set a new record?   

Steve's challenge is a test of his endurance, his mental and physical fortitude, his commitment.   We have already seen challengers come and go.   We all gasped when Steve had the accident and marvelled at his determination and commitment to keep going.   

Steve is clearly committed to carrying on with his second attempt and I, one of many, continue to follow, support and encourage him regardless of whether he manages to crack the record or not.

I understand that there are folk who don't understand the nature of a challenge, that success is not a guarantee, that Steve will suffer during the challenge and that all of this is part of what makes this a mega challenge.   

Roll on Steve with the wind on your back and good fortune ahead.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 01 January, 2016, 11:16:41 am
Steve's a big boy.  I doubt he gives two hoots about the negativity on this thread, other people's opinions or what any of us say regarding the team. 

He's already said he listens/reads advice, digests it and rules most of it out. 

I don't feel we need to 'protect' a grown man from peoples internet waffle.  Steve is an exceptionally intelligent and driven human being, do you really think anything posted here makes any difference?  I doubt it. I'm sure he is more capable than most of us in filtering out the wheat from the chaff with regard to his life!
Although you dont explicitly say, this post is clearly in response to mine.

My post was in no way intended to protect Steve from anything. That would imply I was attempting censorship; to stop people saying certain things.

that is not what I suggested; my idea was to have another, different conversation, in addition to this one.

Hope that's clear :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Freya on 01 January, 2016, 11:20:16 am
Well, I do think that there are people on here who equate failing at something with being a 'failure'. They are actually two different things. Steve set out to break the record. He failed to do that.. That does not reflect badly on him either as a person or as an athlete. It does not define him as an individual. By the same token you can't say he has succeeded in achieving his aim. Yes, it has been a stupendous effort, an inspiring display of resilience , mental fortitude and athletic endurance, but you can't get away from the fact that Kurt has done what Steve has been unable to.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 11:24:00 am
PB, when somebody tackles the year record, it is a simple situation - success or failure.

Steve failed his first attempt, due to a drunk. It was obvious the instant his ankle broke.

Steve has also failed his second attempt. It has been marginal for months and now is beyond doubt. The deficit to Tommy's (and shortly Kurt's) record is beyond recovery within the next seven months.

Steve is wasting his time and resources (and those of his support crew, supporters and sponsors) when he could be properly preparing for a serious assault on the record that would actually have a significant chance of success.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 01 January, 2016, 11:28:40 am
In terms simply of achieving a new record, yes.  He has not managed yet to post a new record. 

Steve still has about 220 days left of attempt 2 AND as yet, I haven't seen any proof of any person ever accurately reading the tea leaves and predicting the future.   Of course, if you can, please send me by PM the numbers for the lottery draws tonight and tomorrow night.  You can have one half of my winnings as your share. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 01 January, 2016, 11:30:33 am
Is every time an athlete pounds down the track doing the 100 metres or a time trialist hunches over the bars a failure if ultimately they don't set a new record?   

Steve's challenge is a test of his endurance, his mental and physical fortitude, his commitment.   We have already seen challengers come and go.   We all gasped when Steve had the accident and marvelled at his determination and commitment to keep going.   

Steve is clearly committed to carrying on with his second attempt and I, one of many, continue to follow, support and encourage him regardless of whether he manages to crack the record or not.

I understand that there are folk who don't understand the nature of a challenge, that success is not a guarantee, that Steve will suffer during the challenge and that all of this is part of what makes this a mega challenge.   

Roll on Steve with the wind on your back and good fortune ahead.

Steve's attempt is to set out to break a record, not to see how long he can ride a bike for. His efforts now are detrimental to any potential future attempts.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 01 January, 2016, 11:32:14 am
In terms simply of achieving a new record, yes.  He has not managed yet to post a new record. 

Steve still has about 220 days left of attempt 2 AND as yet, I haven't seen any proof of any person ever accurately reading the tea leaves and predicting the future.   Of course, if you can, please send me by PM the numbers for the lottery draws tonight and tomorrow night.  You can have one half of my winnings as your share.

Quit with the hyperbole, there is no assumption in saying he can't do it. It's a presumption based on past performance and hard data.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 11:32:40 am
PB, I'll buy you a beer for every week that Steve averages 220 or more miles a day. Steve needs to average at least that much distance every single week until his 2nd attempt finishes in early August. It has been 2 months since Steve had a week that averaged more than 200 daily miles.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on 01 January, 2016, 11:36:04 am
I posted this -- a couple of pages back

It has become obvious over time that this record requires something way beyond an amateur approach .. it needs very serious planning and colossal support ( not just financially -- which Steve has had ) but in more areas than I can separately list. This inclines me to believe that the second attempt is destined to fail.. BUT .. if a dedicated team could be found, put their heads together and plotted a serious attempt beginning 1.1.17 then the rider who might be able to take the record  does exist in UK -- and that is Steve.

For Steve to succeed , rather than just riding on and on during 2016. A completely new approach is needed -- clearly this has to be talked thru with Steve -- all sorts of topics have to be considered -- pre start conditioning and training, nutrition, how to do the ride .. MK loops of 10/15/25 miles, drafting support, equipment .. bike .. clothing etc, sponsorship , PR, finances -- the list is not endless.. but it does gone and on .. the team posts that are important and who is best able to fill them , and who is the best team leader.. will these people be able to devote the time for a year .

Now Steve may not agree with this more structured approach - in which case forget it -- but if he wants the record - then I would suggest that this the way to give him the best chance.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 01 January, 2016, 11:45:46 am
For Steve to succeed , rather than just riding on and on during 2016. A completely new approach is needed -- clearly this has to be talked thru with Steve -- all sorts of topics have to be considered -- pre start conditioning and training, nutrition, how to do the ride .. MK loops of 10/15/25 miles, drafting support, equipment .. bike .. clothing etc, sponsorship , PR, finances -- the list is not endless.. but it does gone and on .. the team posts that are important and who is best able to fill them , and who is the best team leader.. will these people be able to devote the time for a year .

Now Steve may not agree with this more structured approach - in which case forget it -- but if he wants the record - then I would suggest that this the way to give him the best chance.

Given that FB played such an important part of the team that brought us the hugely successful LEL 2013 (and having learnt important lessons from LEL 2009), and his insight into how Steve's campaign has been run this year, I think his advice should be given serious consideration.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 01 January, 2016, 11:53:06 am
I think the time for encouraging Steve to stop or pause in response to concerns about likelihood of him beating Tommy's or Kurt's annual totals was in the last few weeks. December 31st offered a chance for a graceful and dignified exit should he have wished to.

Now that Steve has publicly stated he wishes to continue until August 2016, continued calls to quit aren't going to help. As most of us have experienced when on a long ride, we are not short of our own personal demons telling us to quit. Those are quite enough.

I will continue to support Steve's attempt both financially and morally while he and the team wish to continue. The evidence so far is that taking Kurt's anticipated record is unlikely, but it's up to Steve and the team to choose how to respond to that. There are still some unknowns such as the full impact of Steve's change in diet or whether in 2016 there will be change in tactics. I think he deserves the opportunity to explore those possibilities.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 01 January, 2016, 11:54:21 am
Now Steve may not agree with this more structured approach - in which case forget it -- but if he wants the record - then I would suggest that this the way to give him the best chance.

That's the nub of it I guess. How does Steve want to achieve whatever it is he is chasing, and just what is he wanting to achieve?  Like LWaB it seems to me that his second annual effort has little chance of exceeding whatever annual mileage records stand at the end of it, other than age related. And to have an age related total that is less than that of an older riders doesn't really stack up for me - but then I'm the sort of person that sees beating records as black and white (like I suspect Kurt will - IME Americans tend to the polarised yes/no pass/fail approach, as opposed to the British shades of grey approach to achievement).

I think (as in my personal opinion) that those who are funding him (as well as those who are providing direct support - I assume they are "in the know") should be kept informed of what the challenge is - many people I suspect are giving money that they could usefully use elsewhere because they want to support Steve as an individual. "Contract"or not, it seems unfair for them to keep making what could be an open-ended commitment. Of course they could just stop, as some have done, but perhaps they'd be happier continuing with knowledge rather than feeling unappreciated. (I don't have a continuing commitment, I was one of the one-off payers at the start).

I also think Matt's suggestion of a separate "number crunching" thread has some merit, for those who want facts not speculation, although it could get a little dry.  :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 11:55:30 am
Supporting Steve and his team to continue his 2nd attempt isn't going to help the situation either.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 01 January, 2016, 11:57:23 am
Well said Jo. 

He earned our support and respect on day 1 and still does so on day 366 and beyond in my opinion.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 01 January, 2016, 12:03:22 pm
I notice that voluntary £1 donations "to support Steve Abraham's distance record attempt" are still in force on AUK. When do they stop? The graphic next to the option clearly states 2015. I think this needs to be removed or certainly explained as I'm sure many entrants have no idea what it's for or why it's continuing beyond 2015.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 12:05:16 pm
Write to the AUK Board about the donation scheme.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Freya on 01 January, 2016, 12:22:07 pm
Am I right in saying that Steve would have to declare when any attempt starts. In other words, if he gets to August  without breaking the record, but with a decent aggregate from today, he can't just decide that he is going to go for a Jan-Dec 2016 record?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 01 January, 2016, 12:33:52 pm
That's correct, at least under HAM'R rules.

The waters are muddied a little by the fact we appear to have a Guinness-valdidated and an 'unofficial' attempt from Kajsa and Bruce this year that operate under different rules. Personally, I'd draw the line at recognising any record that is drawn up retrospectively.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 01 January, 2016, 12:54:50 pm
PB, when somebody tackles the year record, it is a simple situation - success or failure.

Steve failed his first attempt, due to a drunk. It was obvious the instant his ankle broke.

Steve has also failed his second attempt. It has been marginal for months and now is beyond doubt. The deficit to Tommy's (and shortly Kurt's) record is beyond recovery within the next seven months.

Steve is wasting his time and resources (and those of his support crew, supporters and sponsors) when he could be properly preparing for a serious assault on the record that would actually have a significant chance of success.

While I obviously agree that the first attempt failed and the second looks beyond reach, I agree with PB that there's no way Steve can be regarded as a 'failure' - and I know you feel the same way. Steve's achievement is magnificent by any standards; the fact that he didn't break the record is a shame but neither here nor there, at the end of the day.

I think it's a mistake for him to carry on, but I wouldn't be so harsh as to say he's wasting anyone's time. If he wants to carry on and the volunteers are happy to carry on supporting him, good luck to him and them. I'd like to know what the aim is, but I can't demand to know. I can only hope that those around him will step in if they believe he is in danger of harming himself.

Despite our predictions of him falling short of Tommy and Kurt, if he remains healthy it's highly likely he'll raise his own total for the year to around 70,000 miles, and will become the second-fastest-ever to 100,000 miles. If that's the aim, so be it. Good luck and go safely.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 01 January, 2016, 01:05:00 pm
Given the title of the thread, it would be illuminating to know what is actually being attempted now though. Well it would for me, to help maintain an interest.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 01 January, 2016, 01:11:26 pm
PB, I'll buy you a beer for every week that Steve averages 220 or more miles a day. Steve needs to do at least that much distance every week until his 2nd attempt finishes in early August. It has been 2 months since Steve had a week that averaged more than 200 daily miles.

And every day that he rides c180 miles adds c1/5 of a mile to the daily average he needs. If that's what he averages during January, he'll need to hit 227 mpd from then on; if it stays the same during February, the required rate will be about 235 mpd.

I wonder if people - here or in the team - are looking at Jo's excellent visualisations, noting that Steve is currently about 2000 miles up on Tommy's mileage on the equivalent day of his ride, and concluding that it must therefore be possible still to exceed the record distance.

Whatever the likelihood of that, ultimately, as Jo notes, it is Steve's decision. Whichever way he decides (and I hope he has trustworthy advisors helping him) he has all my respect for his achievements so far and into the future.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 01 January, 2016, 01:35:50 pm
I sense I'm unusual for an observer on this side of the Atlantic, as I can identify with Kurt more than Steve. I'm a self-employed contractor who took up cycling more seriously in early middle age for fitness reasons. My dad was a builder, like Kurt's, and many of my bigger cycling feats have been undertaken with the full support of my partner Heather.

When you contract to do a big job you have to stick as closely as possible to the average daily output throughout the contract period. You need to set up your processes to start doing that on day 1 and focus on meeting the deadline, with a contingency for the unforeseen. While doing that you have to focus on efficiency. The phrase, 'An engineer can do for a dollar what any fool can do for two' comes from contracting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_M._Wellington

For me, Kurt has fulfilled all the criteria for success. I can see how a Kurt and Alicia double act would be good at any project management seminar. That never seems to have been the aim. 'Because we can' has been the guiding thought, but I wouldn't begrudge any return that they make on their investment of a year, the expenditure, and the  income foregone.

Steve's attempt has looked to me more like the work of local council. Carried out in an atmosphere of small-scale politics, and constantly slipping behind the schedule. The main things holding it together have been a conspicuous display of loyalty, and Steve's unflinching commitment to the task.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 01 January, 2016, 01:37:58 pm
I notice that voluntary £1 donations "to support Steve Abraham's distance record attempt" are still in force on AUK. When do they stop? The graphic next to the option clearly states 2015. I think this needs to be removed or certainly explained as I'm sure many entrants have no idea what it's for or why it's continuing beyond 2015.
Write to the AUK Board about the donation scheme.

The Board has been very much in support of Steve and his record attempt, and we're keen to continue that support in the most appropriate way in future.

I've raised the subject with other Board members - I agree that we need to be clear about what is happening.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 01 January, 2016, 03:57:30 pm
The Board has been very much in support of Steve and his record attempt

I think *everyone* has been very much in support of Steve and his record attempt.

I agree that we need to be clear about what is happening.

That, I think, is what people want to know most of all. I'm still baffled at the continuing silence other than an "I'm carrying on" from Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 01 January, 2016, 04:28:05 pm
As an AUK, Steve will continue to have my support from the sidelines whatever he decides to do.

Ok from the outside, we can rationalise in a different way, and Ican fully understand why some folk are now verbalising their concerns etc. That is undoubtedly their prerogative.

AUK can change the wording on the entry forms, I am sure it will still garner donations.

One thing that no doubt keeps Steve going is his Audaxing training over the years......to just keep going.

He may have the 100k in mind, and let's face it, he probably won't get the chance again to have a crack at that distance in one go.

We might even see him increasing his speed as the Spring and Summer dawn?  As observers, we probably missed out knowing that the main time of concern was probably September when the dietary plan was being hatched, but took  time to implement? Only Steve truly knows. We will just have to await the book. ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 01 January, 2016, 04:29:10 pm
As an AUK, Steve will continue to have my support from the sidelines whatever he decides to do.

Ok from the outside, we can rationalise in a different way, and Ican fully understand why some folk are now verbalising their concerns etc. That is undoubtedly their prerogative.

AUK can change the wording on the entry forms, I am sure it will still garner donations.

One thing that no doubt keeps Steve going is his Audaxing training over the years......to just keep going.

He may have the 100k in mind, and let's face it, he probably won't get the chance again to have a crack at that distance in one go.

We might even see him increasing his speed as the Spring and Summer dawn?  As observers, we probably missed out knowing that the main time of concern was probably September when the dietary plan was being hatched, but took  time to implement? Only Steve truly knows. We will just have to await the book. ;)

+1
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 01 January, 2016, 04:34:14 pm
Given the title of the thread, it would be illuminating to know what is actually being attempted now though. Well it would for me, to help maintain an interest.

I'm pretty certain that we know exactly what is happening and that the confusion has been caused largely by some posters in this thread.   

Steve started a second tilt at Tommy's record in August to run concurrently with his first tilt which was derailed by the moped incident.   At the time there were few, very few dissenting voices.   It is now January 1st.  The first tilt is offucially over and the second tilt is under way still.   

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 04:50:20 pm
Bullshit PB. Steve is cast-iron certain to fail to get the year record with his restart, regardless of brave statements.

Steve can't get the 100,000 record using the first attempt. The required mileage is much too great for the remaining days.

It would be bloody difficult for Steve to get it using the restart. The reduction from Tommy's 206 daily miles for a year to 200 daily miles for 500 days isn't very much. Steve would be going until late 2016.

Of course, Steve hasn't said anything about the 100,000 record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 01 January, 2016, 04:56:59 pm
the restart made sense until mid November when the tummy/diet problems started.

Every day he does less than 225 miles it makes less sense.

If he really does think he has 8 months (197mpd-ish) then it's going to be a shock when the proper sums are done. I've seen 8 months quoted both on Strava and Twitter so it doesn't seem a simple typo.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 01 January, 2016, 05:01:09 pm
Given the title of the thread, it would be illuminating to know what is actually being attempted now though. Well it would for me, to help maintain an interest.

I'm pretty certain that we know exactly what is happening and that the confusion has been caused largely by some posters in this thread.   

Steve started a second tilt at Tommy's record in August to run concurrently with his first tilt which was derailed by the moped incident.   At the time there were few, very few dissenting voices.   It is now January 1st.  The first tilt is offucially over and the second tilt is under way still.   

There were very few dissenting voices (were there any?) because everyone hoped that Steve was now well and that he could achieve the speeds and daily distances required. Against the evidence, we went on hoping that a miracle would happen and Steve would suddenly find the speed to bring the challenge alive. Then there was dietgate, and the world fell out of his bottom taking most realistic hopes with it.

The second attempt is still under way, but few would give it any chance of succeeding. It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either. As I said earlier, perhaps he's going now for a personal 365-day record, or just to be the second fastest to 100,000 miles. Who knows? We don't, but I'm sure we all wish him well.

However, I won't financially support an essentially aimless ride.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 01 January, 2016, 05:08:44 pm
We'll invent a new record such as 'Most consecutive days of bicycle Brevet de Randonneurs."

Steve can carry on and set something spectacular.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 01 January, 2016, 05:17:51 pm
So much negativity here.

If folk don't wish to continue supporting Steve's attempt on the record financially, that's up to them of course.
What I don't understand is all the grumping, whining and general bad mouthing going on.

Happy New Year everyone. Cheer up!

Oh, and allez Steve!  :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 January, 2016, 05:22:16 pm
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 01 January, 2016, 05:22:26 pm
So much negativity here.

If folk don't wish to continue supporting Steve's attempt on the record financially, that's up to them of course.
What I don't understand is all the grumping, whining and general bad mouthing going on.

Happy New Year everyone. Cheer up!

Oh, and allez Steve!  :)
Agreed :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 01 January, 2016, 05:33:22 pm

Steve's attempt has looked to me more like the work of local council. Carried out in an atmosphere of small-scale politics, and constantly slipping behind the schedule. The main things holding it together have been a conspicuous display of loyalty, and Steve's unflinching commitment to the task.


That's pretty much what I have been musing since the Moped Moment, although from the flip side - that is, looking at the evident absence of a senior manager in the team.

There's a reason that Chief Exec's are paid as much as they are - it's because they are supposed to be worth it. That doesn't mean to say that just putting someone in charge and paying them gets results, it really doesn't. In good or average times the failings of the mediocre or worse are often covered up, in bad times they and their organisations fail.

For a long while I felt diffident about expressing this criticism because, at the beginning and end of the day the guys who are helping out are volunteers who have given shedloads of their time and I am certain are doing their level best with the best of motivations. However responsibility ultimately ends at the team leader, clearly one of the most experienced long distance cyclists around, but without the critical skills needed to lead this effort. That. Needs. To. Change. For Steve's sake. Steve is slogging his guts out, pedalling unbelievable miles each day, he deserves the best chance to help him achieve what he wants - whatever that might be. The current Team are not up to it an should augment their skills and/or time available with whatever is needed. Funds exist and much more could be raised.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 01 January, 2016, 05:39:10 pm
the restart made sense until mid November when the tummy/diet problems started.

Every day he does less than 225 miles it makes less sense.

If he really does think he has 8 months (197mpd-ish) then it's going to be a shock when the proper sums are done. I've seen 8 months quoted both on Strava and Twitter so it doesn't seem a simple typo.

Steve was exhausted in the summer. A restart was required because it was obvious by then that he did not have the pace to make up the lost ground. I walked in on Steve the start of the Mersey Roads and I don't think I've ever seen anyone look more tired. He gave a massive yawn and didn't really respond to my hello. Later when he was riding the event - he was very very slow. Speaking to others helping or riding the event, there was a common view that he was riding way too slowly.

Steve was still saying back then that he thought he could do it. That did not seem realistic to me any more. The restart looked like it suggested it had finally sunk in, and a sensible decision was taken.

The 2000 + miles he's now below, the speeds, etc, look exactly like that period. By the end of the winter, unless there is a significant change soon, the deficit will be 4000 miles and my gut feeling is, it will need months of more then 250mpd to get back to parity by the end.


Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Peter on 01 January, 2016, 05:40:47 pm
It's a little depressing to see opposing views to "My country right or wrong" decried as negativity.  They are alternatives.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 01 January, 2016, 05:42:01 pm
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.
I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.

We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 01 January, 2016, 06:02:31 pm
the restart made sense until mid November when the tummy/diet problems started.

Every day he does less than 225 miles it makes less sense.

If he really does think he has 8 months (197mpd-ish) then it's going to be a shock when the proper sums are done. I've seen 8 months quoted both on Strava and Twitter so it doesn't seem a simple typo.

I wished him a happy new year on Facebook and in the same post pointed out that he was a month out. He "liked" the post. I assume that means that he realised that when he said he had 8 months and 7 days left that he was wrong.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: αdαmsκι on 01 January, 2016, 06:02:54 pm
Steve has done something I would never even dream of doing because I wouldn't have the mental strength to tackle this challenge. However, the aim is to beat Tommy's record, and I'd assume the new record that Kurt is likely to set. Here is why I think this isn't going to happen, based on some simple calculations.

According to Jo's site Steve on the second attempt has an average speed of 14.5 mph, and the first attempt was ridden at 14.1 mph.

As of 30th Dec. Steve needs 215.6 miles per day to match Tommy's record.

Now if one assumes in a typical day 7½ hours is spent sleeping, 45 minutes is spent in the morning getting ready (showering, eating breakfast etc.) 45 minutes is spent in the evening eating dinner, uploading gpx files to Strava etc. & 45 minutes per day is spent not moving because of traffic lights, buying food, toilet stops etc. then this means Steve can cycle for 14¼ hours per day.

215.6 miles in 14¼ hours is an average speed of 15.1 mph. That's 0.6 mph faster than he's moving at the moment. That doesn't sound like much, but it means Steve finishes ~1,900 miles behind Tommy's record. Close but no cigar.

Now assuming Kurt does 76,000 miles Steve then needs 219.8 miles per day. Using the same assumptions as above results in Steve needing to average 15.4 mph to get beyond 76,000 miles.

Factual conclusion: Steve needs to get faster.

Jo's site also says Steve has spent 55% of the second attempt moving, which means on an average day he's spending 13 hours & 12 minutes cycling, compared to my assumption of 14 hours & 15 minutes. So to ride for 13 hours & 12 minutes per day & still beat Tommy's record he needs to be doing 16.3 mph. To get beyond 76,000 miles he needs to ride at 16.7 mph. Remember, at the moment he's doing 14.5 mph.

Factual conclusion: Steve needs to get a lot faster.

Now, my thoughts. Steve isn't going to increase his average speed by 2.2 miles per hour in order to match 76,000 miles because that's a massive increase, so therefore the attempt at the record is doomed. That isn't me being negative, and it isn't an attack on Steve. It's just my opinion based on some calculations.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 01 January, 2016, 06:14:31 pm
It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.
Not true.

Working backwards from the restart Steve's daily average peaks at 192.2 for the 77 days in the run up to Aug 8, it seems logical to include those days in a theoretical 100k.  Taking those 77 days plus the current attempt gives an average of 191.3 over 223 days.  Steve would need to average 207.7 for the rest of the rebooted attempt plus a further 57 days to take the 100K record.  That's the original Tommy Godwin average plus a few minutes per day which is a whole lot more viable than the Searvogel average plus nearly an hour he needs for the year record.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 01 January, 2016, 06:15:22 pm
All these comments assume that we know what Steve's objectives are. If it simply to ride he bike each day and not worry about the real world he has achieved that.  :thumbsup:

Another short day is on the way and if he is going for the record he is further behind. On the other hand he has another day without the real world bothering him.

We need a statement of intent, what is going on? If we are just looking at a middle aged man cycling around and not having to bother about the real world I will not watch for another day.

Also has anyone thought about the way this was planned. I work in computers and one sure fire way to fail is to plan a project from the top down. We need this by then and all these things by this date. Success comes from understanding what you can achieve in small pieces and then putting these together and seeing how far you can get. All the spreadsheets that were put together at the start look to me like top down planning, there appeared to be very little attention paid to what could be achieved on a day to day basis. The current situation looks the same. All I have to do is ride 225 miles a day I can do that. Not I need eight hours sleep, 14 hours riding, how fast am I going, how many miles will I achieve - oh dear I will continue to fall behind. We are coming up to the worse eight weeks of the year. Has Steve factored in a lost week because of snow / ice? This would be picked up in bottom up planning but seen as an irritation for anyone doing top down planning.

Please see Adamski's post above - that is bottom up planning. What can I achieve in a day and expand. Now what is Steve trying to achieve? Statement of intent is required, not silence.

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 01 January, 2016, 06:31:59 pm
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.
I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.

We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...

Matt, your support for Steve is admirable - so what do you think (if indeed you wish to speculate - you may not) he is doing? He's taken in excess of 9 hours to do half the mileage he needs to do daily to match a record that Kurt will ( all things being equal) break in the next few days.  Do you feel (I assume you must) that Steve will be able to overtake it come August? If yes, then what are your numbers?

I don't think anyone here wishes Steve ill (though not being an AUK/insider I don't know what undercurrents might be at play, and perhaps you do) but (and I'd be happy to be) I'd personally be astounded if he manges it. If, of course, that's still his aim, which brings us back to the "what's he doing now" question, and our difference of opinion as to whether financial support merits an explanation.  I think it does. YMMV  :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 01 January, 2016, 06:32:51 pm
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.
I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.

We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 01 January, 2016, 06:33:52 pm
Is every time an athlete pounds down the track doing the 100 metres or a time trialist hunches over the bars a failure if ultimately they don't set a new record?   

It's all about beating the other guy and if Usain Bolt wins the gold medal then I imagine he's not too bothered about how long it took him to do it.  In this event the other guy, at least for the next few days, is Tommy Godwin and if you don't exceed his distance then yes, you have failed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 01 January, 2016, 06:35:22 pm
Steve has done something I would never even dream of doing because I wouldn't have the mental strength to tackle this challenge. However, the aim is to beat Tommy's record, and I'd assume the new record that Kurt is likely to set. Here is way I think this isn't going to happen, based on some simple calculations.

According to Jo's site Steve on the second attempt has an average speed of 14.5 mph, and the first attempt was ridden at 14.1 mph.

As of 30th Dec. Steve needs 215.6 miles per day to match Tommy's record.

Now if one assumes in a typical day 7½ hours is spent sleeping, 45 minutes is spent in the morning getting ready (showering, eating breakfast etc.) 45 minutes is spent in the evening eating dinner, uploading gpx files to Strava etc. & 45 minutes per day is spent not moving because of traffic lights, buying food, toilet stops etc. then this means Steve can cycle for 14¼ hours per day.

215.6 miles in 14¼ hours is an average speed of 15.1 mph. That's 0.6 mph faster than he's moving at the moment. That doesn't sound like much, but it means Steve finishes ~1,900 miles behind Tommy's record. Close but no cigar.

Now assuming Kurt does 76,000 miles Steve then needs 219.8 miles per day. Using the same assumptions as above results in Steve needing to average 15.4 mph to get beyond 76,000 miles.

Factual conclusion: Steve needs to get faster.

Jo's site also says Steve has spent 55% of the second attempt moving, which means on an average day he's spending 13 hours & 12 minutes cycling, compared to my assumption of 14 hours & 15 minutes. So to ride for 13 hours & 12 minutes per day & still beat Tommy's record he needs to be doing 16.3 mph. To get beyond 76,000 miles he needs to ride at 16.7 mph. Remember, at the moment he's doing 14.5 mph.

Factual conclusion: Steve needs to get a lot faster.

Now, my thoughts. Steve isn't going to increase his average speed by 2.2 miles per hour in order to match 76,000 miles because that's a massive increase, so therefore the attempt at the record is doomed. That isn't me being negative, and it isn't an attack on Steve. It's just my opinion based on some calculations.






PLUS ONE.   Well done for such detailed calculations

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 01 January, 2016, 06:39:04 pm
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.
I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.

We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...

Matt, your support for Steve is admirable - so what do you think (if indeed you wish to speculate - you may not) he is doing? He's taken in excess of 9 hours to do half the mileage he needs to do daily to match a record that Kurt will ( all things being equal) break in the next few days.  Do you feel (I assume you must) that Steve will be able to overtake it come August? If yes, then what are your numbers?

I don't think anyone here wishes Steve ill (though not being an AUK/insider I don't know what undercurrents might be at play, and perhaps you do) but (and I'd be happy to be) I'd personally be astounded if he manges it. If, of course, that's still his aim, which brings us back to the "what's he doing now" question, and our difference of opinion as to whether financial support merits an explanation.  I think it does. YMMV  :)
My post was specific to LWAB's posts about the attempt - I dont see how your questions relate to that.

(not meaning to be evasive; this thread is about so many issues that I think people need to be very specific to avoid confusion and ambiguity)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 01 January, 2016, 06:39:24 pm
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.
I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.

We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...

From my own POV it's frustration, nothing to do with being negative.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 01 January, 2016, 06:41:41 pm
Is every time an athlete pounds down the track doing the 100 metres or a time trialist hunches over the bars a failure if ultimately they don't set a new record?   

It's all about beating the other guy and if Usain Bolt wins the gold medal then I imagine he's not too bothered about how long it took him to do it.  In this event the other guy, at least for the next few days, is Tommy Godwin and if you don't exceed his distance then yes, you have failed.
Flawed analogy; if you're in that final, you'd love to beat Bolt, but itsnot very likely;  you'd prefer to come second with a PB than come last, or pull up after 50m cos you things ain't going too well.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Freya on 01 January, 2016, 06:57:22 pm
Quote
Flawed analogy; if you're in that final, you'd love to beat Bolt, but itsnot very likely;  you'd prefer to come second with a PB than come last, or pull up after 50m cos you things ain't going too well.
I'm not sure I understand that. If it was me personally trying to do this then I would be happy to exceed 30,000 miles or whatever and for me that would be a massive achievement. I have no more chance of beating Godwin than I do of beating Bolt. Steve went into the attempt with the expectation of being able to beat Godwin. That is the standard by which the success or failure of the attempt at the end of the year is going to be judged.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 01 January, 2016, 06:58:03 pm
Bianchi Boy's questioning of the planning is spot on.  Steve's published schedules look absurdly optimistic, so we have to wonder how they were arrived at?

He is currently 1.5k down on his lower estimate but has the hardest months still ahead.  In contrast the schedules predicted the next 6 months would achieve daily distances of over 240 per day, every day - no contingency.  Again, that was the conservative prediction.  The optimistic schedule was over 250 per day.

Who on the team signed off these schedules as being realistic?  Even without the dietary issues of the restart Steve would have come no-where near the schedules.  Even Tommy only managed that for a couple of months.  That is simply flawed planning.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 01 January, 2016, 07:10:53 pm
Quote
Flawed analogy; if you're in that final, you'd love to beat Bolt, but itsnot very likely;  you'd prefer to come second with a PB than come last, or pull up after 50m cos you things ain't going too well.
I'm not sure I understand that. If it was me personally trying to do this then I would be happy to exceed 30,000 miles or whatever and for me that would be a massive achievement. I have no more chance of beating Godwin than I do of beating Bolt. Steve went into the attempt with the expectation of being able to beat Godwin. That is the standard by which the success or failure of the attempt at the end of the year is going to be judged.
so your target would be half the winning/record figure. You say Steve's is purely to be the best.

Neither match what a 100m runner is thinking when racing Bolt; he knows he'll probably lose.

(remind me what your point is? )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Freya on 01 January, 2016, 07:18:50 pm
My point is that Steve set out to break the record. He thought he could beat 'Bolt'. When he went into the challenge he didn't think he'd probably lose. He thought he had a realistic chance of doing it. Just 'doing his best & getting a PB' is not a measure of success/failure in his case. Still an inspiring effort nevertheless.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 01 January, 2016, 07:24:52 pm
My point is that Steve set out to break the record. He thought he could beat 'Bolt'. When he went into the challenge he didn't think he'd probably lose.

I agree - and that's exactly why I said the analogy was flawed :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 01 January, 2016, 07:49:48 pm
For a long while I felt diffident about expressing this criticism because, at the beginning and end of the day the guys who are helping out are volunteers who have given shedloads of their time and I am certain are doing their level best with the best of motivations. However responsibility ultimately ends at the team leader, clearly one of the most experienced long distance cyclists around, but without the critical skills needed to lead this effort.

I understand where you are coming from but think that is a bit harsh.  Really, the buck stops with Steve.  It's his show and its up to him who he has in his team to help him.  All the indications, eg from FidgetBuzz's posts, are that Steve decides how he will do things, not anyone on the team.

One point is that, in my discussions with Steve before he started, I tried to emphasise how important the role of Manager / DS / crew chief was, and his response suggested that he didn't quite see it.  With that in mind, it's somewhat surprising that the two most prominent people in his team don't come from either an audax or, indeed, time trialling background.  However, I've no idea what the process was that led to him appointing people - and it may be that others he approached weren't able to make the time commitment.  I felt there was a very good candidate for the Manager role, who I won't embarrass by naming!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 01 January, 2016, 08:04:51 pm
 All the indications, eg from FidgetBuzz's posts, are that Steve decides how he will do things, not anyone on the team.
I agree with that

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 01 January, 2016, 08:06:43 pm
Frank9755............. the UMCA connection.  ;)

Cheers. AM
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Charlie Boy on 01 January, 2016, 08:51:10 pm
Everything is irrelevant other than the HAMR record. That is what is at stake.

Not the 100,000 record, nor an age group record.

We are all very supportive of Steve and want to see him succeed - either now or after a restart in 2017 or whenever - but this project is also not about how far a bloke can ride his bike in 365 days without a realistic attempt at the HAMR record*. I'm sure many of us would like to give up our jobs and be crowdfunded to do that.

*Presumably the second attempt finishes midnight on 6 August as 2016 is a leap year?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 01 January, 2016, 09:14:43 pm
For a long while I felt diffident about expressing this criticism because, at the beginning and end of the day the guys who are helping out are volunteers who have given shedloads of their time and I am certain are doing their level best with the best of motivations. However responsibility ultimately ends at the team leader, clearly one of the most experienced long distance cyclists around, but without the critical skills needed to lead this effort.

I understand where you are coming from but think that is a bit harsh.  Really, the buck stops with Steve.  It's his show and its up to him who he has in his team to help him.  All the indications, eg from FidgetBuzz's posts, are that Steve decides how he will do things, not anyone on the team.

One point is that, in my discussions with Steve before he started, I tried to emphasise how important the role of Manager / DS / crew chief was, and his response suggested that he didn't quite see it.  With that in mind, it's somewhat surprising that the two most prominent people in his team don't come from either an audax or, indeed, time trialling background.  However, I've no idea what the process was that led to him appointing people - and it may be that others he approached weren't able to make the time commitment.  I felt there was a very good candidate for the Manager role, who I won't embarrass by naming!

You think I am being harsh? Possibly, but not "too" harsh, as it is called for.

Steve is attempting a world class athletic endeavour, against which he has demonstrated himself to be up to the task, mentally and physically. No world class sportsman isolates himself from support and coaching, all recognise the potential value of external coaching and support, I have no reason to believe that Steve is pig headed in a such manner that would isolate him from such support, quite the reverse as recent communications show (and, if he did refuse all help, it is as plain as a pikestaff that he would be no world class sportsman and set to fail).

It is the job of his team to find him that support, support that he would understand respect. Failure to find and provide that is a failure of the team, not of Steve. Harsh? Yes. Fact? yes.

Steve is the ONLY irreplaceable part of the attempt team.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 01 January, 2016, 09:32:17 pm
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.
I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.

We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...

Matt, your support for Steve is admirable - so what do you think (if indeed you wish to speculate - you may not) he is doing? He's taken in excess of 9 hours to do half the mileage he needs to do daily to match a record that Kurt will ( all things being equal) break in the next few days.  Do you feel (I assume you must) that Steve will be able to overtake it come August? If yes, then what are your numbers?

I don't think anyone here wishes Steve ill (though not being an AUK/insider I don't know what undercurrents might be at play, and perhaps you do) but (and I'd be happy to be) I'd personally be astounded if he manges it. If, of course, that's still his aim, which brings us back to the "what's he doing now" question, and our difference of opinion as to whether financial support merits an explanation.  I think it does. YMMV  :)
My post was specific to LWAB's posts about the attempt - I dont see how your questions relate to that.

(not meaning to be evasive; this thread is about so many issues that I think people need to be very specific to avoid confusion and ambiguity)

I thought I asked specific questions.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 01 January, 2016, 09:36:37 pm
Regarding all the rational arguments posted here that the record is out of reach and the ensuing recommendation that he should stop and regroup. It's curious as to whether he himself has considered all this and discounted it, or whether his continuing is on the, (possibly well meaning but misguided), advice of others.
Because if he had read this thread or even got the general gist of it and has still come to a rational decision to continue and still intends to attempt break the record, then he obviously knows something we don't , or has some strategy up his sleeve that renders the estimation that it is out of reach wrong.
The only thing that would be concerning is if he just hasn't really considered it, possibly because he hasn't got time to do stuff like reading it or working out his remaining  chances of success.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 01 January, 2016, 09:41:43 pm
My interpretation of Steve's Strava comment

Quote
Last day of the first attempt at the highest annual mileage record. Didn't exactly go to plan. But still 8 months and a week of fun left of attempt 2

is that it is his answer to those of us who have suggested that he ought to stop and, if he so wishes, have another go after a full recovery.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 01 January, 2016, 09:43:19 pm
My post was specific to LWAB's posts about the attempt - I dont see how your questions relate to that.

(not meaning to be evasive; this thread is about so many issues that I think people need to be very specific to avoid confusion and ambiguity)

I thought I asked specific questions.

I thought you did too.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 01 January, 2016, 10:30:09 pm
It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.
Not true.

Working backwards from the restart Steve's daily average peaks at 192.2 for the 77 days in the run up to Aug 8, it seems logical to include those days in a theoretical 100k.  Taking those 77 days plus the current attempt gives an average of 191.3 over 223 days.  Steve would need to average 207.7 for the rest of the rebooted attempt plus a further 57 days to take the 100K record.  That's the original Tommy Godwin average plus a few minutes per day which is a whole lot more viable than the Searvogel average plus nearly an hour he needs for the year record.

Firstly, the aim of the ride was the HAM'R - 75,065 miles in 365 days. The 100k record (in 500 days) was secondary. On the first attempt, Steve managed 65,565 miles, which leaves 34,435 miles in the remaining 135 days - 255 miles a day. Not going to happen. If he really wished to run a second attempt on the 100k contemporaneously with the second HAM'R attempt (I can't see why he would, but this is Steve!!), he has 73,081 miles to match Tommy in the remaining 353 days - 207 miles every day, as you say. It's certainly possible, but his speed needs to increase considerably above anything he's achieved so far (see several posts passim). I'm not sure if the 100k is being run under the UCMA rules, or is effectively unofficial - I haven't found any reference to it on the UCMA site. Anyway, Steve's initial target distance for HAM'R was 80,000 miles. At that pace (219mpd, which seems well beyond the possible now!)), Steve would have been aiming to break the 100k barrier in 457 days. To achieve that along with the second HAM'R attempt would now need 235.7mpd. Of course, beating it by one day would be sufficient - call that 208mpd from today. But that would take him to mid-December 2016, or a smidge under 2 years pretty much constant riding. I know Steve loves being on the bike, but, really?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 01 January, 2016, 11:33:23 pm
Tm.C excellent posting and spot on  thanks
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 01 January, 2016, 11:37:20 pm
...But that would take him to mid-December 2016, or a smidge under 2 years pretty much constant riding. I know Steve loves being on the bike, but, really?
Could it be that his intention is now not to break any record, but simply to do nothing but cycling for evermore, every day - for ever?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 01 January, 2016, 11:48:58 pm
Suspect to beat his 2015 mileage meaning doing about 180 + a day till August which think he can.  Good luck Steve with this  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 01 January, 2016, 11:53:36 pm
It appears to me Kurt has ridden a more hilly route than Steve.

The HAMR leaderboard has mileage and total elevation for each rider.

Dividing the respective figures gives 21.8 feet per mile for Kurt, and 21.0 feet per mile for Steve.

Only a few inches in it, but the notion Kurt has taken the easier option of flat routes is false - assuming I've done the arithmetic correctly.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

No that's not correct. Firstly, elevation gain is tricky to measure in a reproducible way because it depends on how frequently you record elevation and is also more sensitive to GPS error (see the few days of atmospheric climbing for Kurt when his GPS was on the blink).

To compare more reliably, I've polled elevation every 5 minutes through the year for both riders and calculated the elevation gain from the change between those 5 minute elevation snapshots. This absolute figure is a little lower than Strava's (which poll elevation more frequently), but is consistent between riders so provides a good basis for comparison.

Over the year:

Kurt has gained around 113 vertical km in elevation, while Steve has gained around 235 vertical km. Standardising by distance covered this works out at around 0.94m elevation gain per km for Kurt and 2.25m per km for Steve. So Steve has been riding approximately 2.4 times as 'hilly' a terrain than Kurt. To put those figures in the context of typical UK riding, Audaxers would usually assume around 10m per km marks the boundary from gently rolling to hilly. So both are generally riding easier terrain than most UK rural riding.

To see the daily variation, I've graphed both riders with the thick line representing the 7 day rolling average elevation gain.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/elevationGain.png)

You may notice that Kurt's Wisconsin riding was his hilliest, but was still less than Steve's typical routes thought the year.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 02 January, 2016, 01:26:20 am
Suspect to beat his 2015 mileage meaning doing about 180 + a day till August which think he can.  Good luck Steve with this  :thumbsup:

Which is a great personal target but ain't a record attempt. As soon as it stops being a record attempt, it's just a ride. A bloody long one, but really becomes just for personal pride. At that point, any justification for financial and technical support ceases - it's no more justifiable than for any of us. Raising money for charity would be fine, but if people are being asked to subsidise Steve to ride his bike to no particular purpose, that's not on - and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't ask for that. So it seems Steve is still quite convinced he can take the record. I, and many here, think he's wrong. Let's see what happens over the next couple of months. I really hope now that he proves me wrong.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 02 January, 2016, 05:47:21 am
Well written TimC.  We would all love to be proved wrong and let us hope we are. As you say we shall know in a couple of months if his speed increases with super duper mileages in the spring/summer
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 02 January, 2016, 09:07:58 am
And here is a relevant analysis (from the Vis thread):

From day 91 to day 152 we can see that Steve lost 7,500 miles due to the accident. Further recovery time will have been the cause of some or all of the remaining 4,000 miles short of Tommy. Quite how many of those miles would not have been lost without the accident and then the adjusting to a new diet we cannot be sure. It seems that Steve has shown that he is capable of achieving his target given good health and no broken bones.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 02 January, 2016, 09:24:07 am
I thought that post was interesting and suggested something I suspected.  Which is that if Steve hadn't been slammed by a person on a moped, it is likely a lot of the doubting voices would have been proclaiming Steve's strategy as a triumph. 

The only bit I thought RR was too strong on is that Steve hasn't shown he "is" capable of the record.  Only that he "may be".  He never really got going so his sustained threshold remains speculative.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 02 January, 2016, 10:20:20 am
As LWaB pointed out, he was managing to stick to the schedule only at the expense of sleep, he wasn't going as fast as he had planned to so was having to ride longer than planned, this wasn't going to be sustainable and (from memory) the cracks were just starting to show (later starts, slower average speeds, some shorter days).

I was going to have a more thorough delve into the data (including average speeds) next week when the holidays are over.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 02 January, 2016, 10:35:50 am
Which is a great personal target but ain't a record attempt. As soon as it stops being a record attempt, it's just a ride. A bloody long one, but really becomes just for personal pride.

Just like Audax then  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 02 January, 2016, 10:44:25 am
As LWaB pointed out, he was managing to stick to the schedule only at the expense of sleep, he wasn't going as fast as he had planned to so was having to ride longer than planned, this wasn't going to be sustainable and (from memory) the cracks were just starting to show (later starts, slower average speeds, some shorter days).

I was going to have a more thorough delve into the data (including average speeds) next week when the holidays are over.

That's right. His plan was to start increasing the daily mileages significantly in March and he wasn't able to get on the trajectory he had hoped for. I remember discussing it with LWAB on the Kennet Valley Run, early last March (shortly before disaster struck) and it was clear at that point he was falling behind plan because he was riding too slow.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 02 January, 2016, 11:10:11 am
Which is a great personal target but ain't a record attempt. As soon as it stops being a record attempt, it's just a ride. A bloody long one, but really becomes just for personal pride.

Just like Audax then  ;D

Indeed!

*Sits back and awaits requests for funding for every-man-and-his-dog's 50km BPs*

*Better idea - starts a funding drive for my own 50km BPs!!*
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 02 January, 2016, 11:23:24 am


Just like Audax then  ;D
[/quote]




 ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: IJL on 02 January, 2016, 11:58:07 am
The post mortems are  premature with 7 months to go, while TG is well behind Godwin's average, he is well in front of Godwins actual milage for this point.  I know the target is Kurt's mileage but if Godwin could increase has daily distances in the 2nd half of the year then hopefully so can TG.

The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Freya on 02 January, 2016, 12:07:26 pm
Yes, a good effort. However it is still below a standard Godwin and  below what he needs to do as an average. Encouraging, nevertheless.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: yanto on 02 January, 2016, 12:08:41 pm
The post mortems are  premature with 7 months to go, while TG is well behind Godwin's average, he is well in front of Godwins actual milage for this point.  I know the target is Kurt's mileage but if Godwin could increase has daily distances in the 2nd half of the year then hopefully so can TG.

The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.

 I don't see it as a Post Mortem, more a long term prognosis based upon historical facts (both Steve's performance and likelyhood of winter setting in), soon to be realised change of goalpost and perception of team performance.

If, and it is an "if" Steve can up the pace through whatever methods are deemed appropriate by him, the weather gods are on his side, the team provide all the correct support then, possibly, just maybe Steve can achieve the record/ new record.

As for yesterday's performance, lets see if it can be repeated and increased because that is what is required, only time will tell!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 02 January, 2016, 12:21:30 pm
The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.

I wouldn't say that, those that want him to stop now think that doing so is the most likely way for him to eventually succeed after some rest and a regroup before a restart.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 02 January, 2016, 12:24:46 pm
The post mortems are  premature with 7 months to go, while TG is well behind Godwin's average, he is well in front of Godwins actual milage for this point.  I know the target is Kurt's mileage but if Godwin could increase has daily distances in the 2nd half of the year then hopefully so can TG.

The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.

I don't know what time Steve posted on Strava, but he finished the ride at around midnight, so I doubt many have seen it yet. 200 miles is indeed a good step in the right direction, and it's very pleasing to see Steve's form returning. However, it took 15:36 for that 200, which is not a length of riding day that anyone can sustain for very long. If he's to get adequate rest and achieve the record, he needs to be consistently getting up to around 210-220 miles in 14 hours or so - and every day he doesn't achieve that makes the remaining task harder. As remarkable as 200 miles is, if he were to repeat that every day for the remainder of the 2nd attempt, he'd be around 2000 miles further behind Kurt than he is today.

These numbers are mind-boggling!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jackt on 02 January, 2016, 01:36:08 pm
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.

Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)

http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 02 January, 2016, 01:41:16 pm
These numbers are mind-boggling!

They most certainly are.
The whole challenge is on a knife edge right from day one to the moment it's all over. And as we can see from Kurt's performance, you're never really far away from that edge.

I wonder if, and [I can understand how easy a trap it might be to fall into], that after getting back thoroughly exhausted from being out there all day and you've done say 175 for the day, how easy it might be to think, "175, well that's about 35 miles or so short, so what's 35 into 365, blimey, it's only a fraction of a mile each day to make up over the year, I can easily get that back, no problem"'. Which over one day in a year is true. But when the loses accumulate then obviously it starts to take on a different picture.

It's so unforgivingly relentless, so punishing a timetable, with so little room for loss, it just has to be executed with a kind of almost military precision in order to stand any chance whatsoever of succeeding.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Justin(e) on 02 January, 2016, 01:57:17 pm
Any chance if Steve breaking TG's 100,000 record?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 02 January, 2016, 02:01:40 pm
Any chance if Steve breaking TG's 100,000 record?

Nope, I asked this earlier in the thread.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 02 January, 2016, 02:03:47 pm
TimC did this very helpful analysis:
It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.
Not true.

Working backwards from the restart Steve's daily average peaks at 192.2 for the 77 days in the run up to Aug 8, it seems logical to include those days in a theoretical 100k.  Taking those 77 days plus the current attempt gives an average of 191.3 over 223 days.  Steve would need to average 207.7 for the rest of the rebooted attempt plus a further 57 days to take the 100K record.  That's the original Tommy Godwin average plus a few minutes per day which is a whole lot more viable than the Searvogel average plus nearly an hour he needs for the year record.

Firstly, the aim of the ride was the HAM'R - 75,065 miles in 365 days. The 100k record (in 500 days) was secondary. On the first attempt, Steve managed 65,565 miles, which leaves 34,435 miles in the remaining 135 days - 255 miles a day. Not going to happen. If he really wished to run a second attempt on the 100k contemporaneously with the second HAM'R attempt (I can't see why he would, but this is Steve!!), he has 73,081 miles to match Tommy in the remaining 353 days - 207 miles every day, as you say. It's certainly possible, but his speed needs to increase considerably above anything he's achieved so far (see several posts passim). I'm not sure if the 100k is being run under the UCMA rules, or is effectively unofficial - I haven't found any reference to it on the UCMA site. Anyway, Steve's initial target distance for HAM'R was 80,000 miles. At that pace (219mpd, which seems well beyond the possible now!)), Steve would have been aiming to break the 100k barrier in 457 days. To achieve that along with the second HAM'R attempt would now need 235.7mpd. Of course, beating it by one day would be sufficient - call that 208mpd from today. But that would take him to mid-December 2016, or a smidge under 2 years pretty much constant riding. I know Steve loves being on the bike, but, really?

[my bold]
(I havent checked these numbers!)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 02 January, 2016, 02:22:50 pm
Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

Jack, thanks so much for posting your interview with Idai, and thanks equally for asking all the right questions.
Very welcome and very interesting.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 02 January, 2016, 02:34:58 pm
TimC did this very helpful analysis:
It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.
Not true.

Working backwards from the restart Steve's daily average peaks at 192.2 for the 77 days in the run up to Aug 8, it seems logical to include those days in a theoretical 100k.  Taking those 77 days plus the current attempt gives an average of 191.3 over 223 days.  Steve would need to average 207.7 for the rest of the rebooted attempt plus a further 57 days to take the 100K record.  That's the original Tommy Godwin average plus a few minutes per day which is a whole lot more viable than the Searvogel average plus nearly an hour he needs for the year record.

Firstly, the aim of the ride was the HAM'R - 75,065 miles in 365 days. The 100k record (in 500 days) was secondary. On the first attempt, Steve managed 65,565 miles, which leaves 34,435 miles in the remaining 135 days - 255 miles a day. Not going to happen. If he really wished to run a second attempt on the 100k contemporaneously with the second HAM'R attempt (I can't see why he would, but this is Steve!!), he has 73,081 miles to match Tommy in the remaining 353 days - 207 miles every day, as you say. It's certainly possible, but his speed needs to increase considerably above anything he's achieved so far (see several posts passim). I'm not sure if the 100k is being run under the UCMA rules, or is effectively unofficial - I haven't found any reference to it on the UCMA site. Anyway, Steve's initial target distance for HAM'R was 80,000 miles. At that pace (219mpd, which seems well beyond the possible now!)), Steve would have been aiming to break the 100k barrier in 457 days. To achieve that along with the second HAM'R attempt would now need 235.7mpd. Of course, beating it by one day would be sufficient - call that 208mpd from today. But that would take him to mid-December 2016, or a smidge under 2 years pretty much constant riding. I know Steve loves being on the bike, but, really?

[my bold]
(I havent checked these numbers!)

I should add a bit to that, really. If Steve intends to beat both Tommy and Kurt in the one-year challenge, he has to aim for about 77,000 miles minimum. Taking day 147 as the start of the calculation, and using today's figures from the HAM'R website, as I did in the post Matt quotes, that leaves 49,880 miles to achieve in the remaining 218 days to end of 8 August 2016. That's an average of 228.8 mpd from now until 8 August 2016. Leaving aside how likely that is, at that average pace from now, Steve would achieve the remaining 72,880 miles to 100k in 319 days from today (or 456 days from 9 Aug 14), and would smash the 100k record on 19 November 2016.

(Edited to update to today's HAM'R numbers)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 02 January, 2016, 02:36:29 pm
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.

Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)

http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)

Thanks for that, so in a nutshell:-

Steve's kidneys were put under stress due to the high amounts of sugar consumed in his diet.

Hence the new diet and following doctors orders he reduced his miles.

Steve's been a bit frustrated with some of the set backs that have gone on.

People have been asked for help but have not delivered when it matters.

Everyone within the team puts forward thier POV, but Idai and Hoppo don't really talk to each other.

If things carry on the way they are, then they will look at thier position at the end of the month and ask if it's worth continuing.

But then in the next lot of answers, it's implied that what Steve does is inspiring and he'll carry on regardless until he is ready to quit.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jackt on 02 January, 2016, 02:53:00 pm
@LMT: Correct in parts but I don't think that's an entirely accurate summary!

After hearing Idai stress a number of times that Steve does have a plan (and, note, that he plans to share it), I went back to examine Steve's original mileage schedule for the 1st Attempt, see: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation)

From my calculations it does appear that if he can stick to those planned mileages until 7 August 2016, he will have - just - surpassed Godwin and will be nip and tuck with Kurt's likely total. (I could be wrong - someone may wish to double check.)

That is a very big if, though. The proposed mileages for the summer months are enormous, exceeding what Godwin and Bennett were riding in their crazy summer of '39 when they had pacers, motorised support and may have been drafting lorries all along. With hindsight, it's odd that there were so few raised eyebrows at the schedule when Steve published it back in December 2014. His speeds thus far do not suggest that those summer mileages are possible, but then again, he's had terrible misfortunes and he evidently thinks he will ride himself into greater speeds, as originally planned.

One possibility is that the original schedule has been adapted, with Steve 'merely' matching Godwin through the summer, and riding closer to 200 mile averages in the winter and spring.

Either way, he'll have to do something that he's never done before, something neither Godwin or Kurt have done, but I suppose that's exactly what this whole record breaking business is all about.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Charlie Boy on 02 January, 2016, 03:24:49 pm
Don't know who the Oneyeartimetrial.org.uk  website guru is, but perhaps Tommy's distance could be reset to count from Day ??? *(August 8 equivalent). It's saying 235 miles at present as it has been set to count from 1 Jan which is no longer relevant.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 02 January, 2016, 03:32:30 pm
After hearing Idai stress a number of times that Steve does have a plan (and, note, that he plans to share it), I went back to examine Steve's original mileage schedule for the 1st Attempt, see: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation)

From my calculations it does appear that if he can stick to those planned mileages until 7 August 2016, he will have - just - surpassed Godwin and will be nip and tuck with Kurt's likely total. (I could be wrong - someone may wish to double check.)

That is a very big if, though. The proposed mileages for the summer months are enormous, exceeding what Godwin and Bennett were riding in their crazy summer of '39 when they had pacers, motorised support and may have been drafting lorries all along. With hindsight, it's odd that there were so few raised eyebrows at the schedule when Steve published it back in December 2014. His speeds thus far do not suggest that those summer mileages are possible, but then again, he's had terrible misfortunes and he evidently thinks he will ride himself into greater speeds, as originally planned.

One possibility is that the original schedule has been adapted, with Steve 'merely' matching Godwin through the summer, and riding closer to 200 mile averages in the winter and spring.

Either way, he'll have to do something that he's never done before, something neither Godwin or Kurt have done, but I suppose that's exactly what this whole record breaking business is all about.

Excellent summary Jack, and thanks for getting the inside story.  As you will gather there is a great deal of speculation going on here!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 02 January, 2016, 04:02:37 pm
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.

Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)

http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)

That's a really interesting interview, and I don't think anyone can question Idai's commitment to the record having listened to it! Stuff like that does make the whole thing more personal and more engaging than web pages and charts and discussions on here. It will be very interesting to hear Steve's revised schedule when he gets around to sharing it, though I agree that it's unlikely to be very much modified from his original other than smoothing out the peaks and troughs. It's particularly good to hear that he's now feeling well and that a reassessment of the chances of success will be made at the end of the month in the light of his progress having returned to health. I won't restate my position; I'm prepared to accept that Steve's not riding himself into greater illness and, that being the case, I'll watch with interest - and reserve the right to comment based on the numbers achieved. Notwithstanding that, I wish Steve all the luck and following winds he can get, and I really hope he can stick two fingers up to all of us come August.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 02 January, 2016, 04:17:20 pm
I've listened, of course.

I'm glad to know that a review of progress and the possibility of stopping is on the cards at the end of January. They should have done that at the end of last year but hey ho.

Nailing colours to the mast - Steve won't average 220 daily miles for any week in January and will find it difficult to average 200+ daily miles each week. He'll be further behind Tommy and Kurt at the end of January than he is now.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 02 January, 2016, 04:25:19 pm
Any realistic schedule for a UK-based attempt would be summer-loaded.

The skew in Steve's original schedule - with hindsight - now looks ridiculously large, but the idea was bang-on. (there is no way I'm going to state an "ideal" schedule!)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 02 January, 2016, 04:25:38 pm
That's the sort of information that should be shared with Steve's fans & followers at least once a month. Very interesting! Good luck Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 02 January, 2016, 04:51:54 pm
Thanks for that Jack.  Very good to hear those thoughts.  Perhaps a little more of that sort of  "thoughts from the team" would be a good thing for them to consider.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 02 January, 2016, 05:03:38 pm
Thanks for posting, Jack, very interesting. The story helps highlight just how much effort goes into supporting this endeavour.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: JohnR on 02 January, 2016, 05:13:43 pm
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.

Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)

http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)

That's a really interesting interview, and I don't think anyone can question Idai's commitment to the record having listened to it! Stuff like that does make the whole thing more personal and more engaging than web pages and charts and discussions on here. It will be very interesting to hear Steve's revised schedule when he gets around to sharing it, though I agree that it's unlikely to be very much modified from his original other than smoothing out the peaks and troughs. It's particularly good to hear that he's now feeling well and that a reassessment of the chances of success will be made at the end of the month in the light of his progress having returned to health. I won't restate my position; I'm prepared to accept that Steve's not riding himself into greater illness and, that being the case, I'll watch with interest - and reserve the right to comment based on the numbers achieved. Notwithstanding that, I wish Steve all the luck and following winds he can get, and I really hope he can stick two fingers up to all of us come August.

My thoughts exactly. I'm glad to hear his health issues are back to normal, just hope he can resume his form to complete by August.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: macnark on 02 January, 2016, 10:34:19 pm
What a thoroughly informative, balanced and sensible outlook from Idai - that has really helped clarify things, thank you for that, Idai and Jack.

Best wishes to Steve and all his supporting team - let's hope things go to plan during January and continue to do so thereafter.

Chapeau!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 03 January, 2016, 08:57:10 am
What a thoroughly informative, balanced and sensible outlook from Idai - that has really helped clarify things, thank you for that, Idai and Jack.

Best wishes to Steve and all his supporting team - let's hope things go to plan during January and continue to do so thereafter.

Chapeau!








A most interesting 33 minutes and thanks for sharing it with us.  It wasn't so good hearing of volunteers not delivering on their promises
This forum is full of advise how things should be improved but without the actual help.  Let us hope the Winter isn't a Winter!  And Steve survives it well and is able to push himself  (as no doubt he'll have to ) when the weather improves and he is able to find the speed he'll need along with any improvements to the statergy that are able to be put in place.
Good luck Steve and TEAM keep up the good work.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 03 January, 2016, 09:07:21 am
It wasn't so good hearing of volunteers not delivering on their promises

This forum is full of advise how things should be improved but without the actual help.  Let us hope the Winter isn't a Winter!  And Steve survives it well and is able to push himself  (as no doubt he'll have to ) when the weather improves and he is able to find the speed he'll need along with any improvements to the statergy that are able to be put in place.
Good luck Steve and TEAM keep up the good work.  :thumbsup:

...but entirely unsurprising to anyone who has ever had experience of such things. cf my comments previously about the effectiveness of the team, despite their best intentions and efforts.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 03 January, 2016, 12:50:19 pm
It wasn't so good hearing of volunteers not delivering on their promises

This forum is full of advise how things should be improved but without the actual help.  Let us hope the Winter isn't a Winter!  And Steve survives it well and is able to push himself  (as no doubt he'll have to ) when the weather improves and he is able to find the speed he'll need along with any improvements to the statergy that are able to be put in place.
Good luck Steve and TEAM keep up the good work.  :thumbsup:

...but entirely unsurprising to anyone who has ever had experience of such things. cf my comments previously about the effectiveness of the team, despite their best intentions and efforts.

Agree with Ham.  It is incredibly difficult to pull a team of volunteers together let alone for the duration required in this instance.   People have lives, many and varied commitments.   They, like Steve deserve some admiration and appreciation for their commitment to date, both past and current team members.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 03 January, 2016, 01:21:51 pm
Comment from Steve on FB just now...

Quote
My ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come 😊
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 03 January, 2016, 01:25:41 pm
Comment from Steve on FB just now...

Quote
My ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come 😊

Interesting. was the exaggeration our interpretation of the snippets reluctantly shared amid the silence, or the intended effect of the snippets?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 03 January, 2016, 01:30:38 pm
Comment from Steve on FB just now...

Quote
My ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come 😊

Interesting. was the exaggeration our interpretation of the snippets reluctantly shared amid the silence, or the intended effect of the snippets?

Seems a bit odd since it was Steve's Strava comments that told us most about the health issues. Also did they deliberately exaggerate the kidney failure to cause a diet change?

And what effect were they after?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 03 January, 2016, 01:35:21 pm
I suspect it'll be back to "wait and see".
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 03 January, 2016, 02:06:57 pm
There was no Kidney failure....apparently they were under serious stress, but not 'failed' :)

It's good to see this thread has now calmed down btw :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 03 January, 2016, 02:10:35 pm
There was no Kidney failure....apparently they were under serious stress, but not 'failed' :)

True. Potential kidney failure :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 03 January, 2016, 02:58:20 pm
I don't suppose we will be told, but Steve's creatinine level would be of interest wrt his kidney functionality. I know a bit about this sort of thing, for the wrong reasons. In a healthy male, creatinine (the waste product from muscle breakdown) should be at 0.7 to 1.2 mg/dL.

Kidney failure isn't a binary thing. You can, and do survive with much higher levels than this. Typically, dialysis patients range from about 6 to 12mg/dL.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: L CC on 03 January, 2016, 03:20:56 pm
Comment from Steve on FB just now...

Quote
My ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come


Just wondering out loud who writes his Facebook posts?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 03 January, 2016, 03:26:28 pm
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.

Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)

http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)



I found the interview extremely interesting and informative - thanks jackt. It also offered a reminder of the mental strength required by such an undertaking and gave an insight into Steve’s coping strategies. I was starting to find it difficult to feel involved with the record attempt and this interview has helped hugely with that.

It also gave badly needed reassurance on the health front, which was my main concern in my earlier posts on this thread. I think Steve’s comment about health issues being exaggerated is incorrect, at least as far as this thread is concerned. Perhaps there were other comments elsewhere that led to that. My impression was that there was uncertainty, resulting from the nature of his (or his team’s) Facebook posts: weight loss, recurrent mild illness and visits to doctors on a background of lower than usual mileage. I think it was reasonable to express concern.

There were comments earlier on the thread on the matter of “kidney stress”. To my mind, you either have a degree of renal failure of some kind, or you don’t. However, while “organ stress” isn’t a term seen in medical literature, it is not unheard of for similar terminology to be discussed:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1262767/

My understanding of Idai’s comments is that Steve was developing a fatty liver due to high levels of carbohydrates, partly from high dietary intake of carbs and partly from conversion of excess protein. There is also some reference to high levels of protein metabolites due to muscle breakdown and presumably some renal function related abnormalities in blood tests.

In any case, it would seem to be unequivocally clear that Steve and the team have been assured that there are no health concerns that would suggest ending the attempt. Also, my understanding of the variations in daily distances achieved is that the lower mileage days were due to illness (illnesses within the usual ranges of what might be expected in the circumstances), possibly exacerbated by antibiotic treatment for a separate condition, well-founded dietary change and the adaptation required, and planned low mileage days on medical advice. Prior to this, it had seemed to me that the pattern could have been explained by sheer exhaustion and accumulating health issues - I now no longer think this is the case.

My reading of the various calculations above is that Steve can beat his 2015 365-day distance, and that he could possibly still beat Kurt. I agree with Greenbank’s earlier post that it is understandable why Steve would want to continue while these things are within reach. His mileage over the last couple of days, in poor conditions with a lot of riding in the dark, shows that he has the potential to achieve the speeds needed.

Steve’s entire bike riding life has been aiming towards this record and I am going to continue my wholehearted support.

Go Steve!



Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 03 January, 2016, 04:26:27 pm
Comment from Steve on FB just now...

Quote
My ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come


Just wondering out loud who writes his Facebook posts?
Most of them are written in the 3rd person i.e. to make it clear that its a team member writing. So I'd be prettty sure this one is either written or dictated by Steve!

Sometimes there is an actual name attached, IIRC. So i reckon at least two members are writing them.

Anyone else want to speculate? :P
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 03 January, 2016, 05:08:16 pm
I was starting to find it difficult to feel involved with the record attempt and this interview has helped hugely with that.
This
Quote
Steve’s entire bike riding life has been aiming towards this record and I am going to continue my wholehearted support.
And this.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 03 January, 2016, 05:09:54 pm

Anyone else want to speculate? :P

Nope
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 03 January, 2016, 05:50:53 pm
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.

Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)

http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)
Great stuff Jack, thanks for letting us hear Idai in his unedited glory; crikey that guy can talk, can't he? :)

Good luck editing that - especially the last section where Idai gets up a good head of steam.


Idai had a few comments on all those wanting Steve to quit. He seemed to think they are doing much more harm than good.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ian H on 03 January, 2016, 06:12:39 pm
Comment from Steve on FB just now...

Quote
My ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come


Just wondering out loud who writes his Facebook posts?

Various members of Steve's team and, occasionally, Steve himself.
Title: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MikeFromLFE on 03 January, 2016, 07:17:32 pm
I don't suppose we will be told, but Steve's creatinine level would be of interest wrt his kidney functionality. I know a bit about this sort of thing, for the wrong reasons. In a healthy male, creatinine (the waste product from muscle breakdown) should be at 0.7 to 1.2 mg/dL.

Kidney failure isn't a binary thing. You can, and do survive with much higher levels than this. Typically, dialysis patients range from about 6 to 12mg/dL.
You are using USAnian units rather than SI units in use in most of the world.
The breakdown of muscle to creatine and its conversion to creatinine is not a linear process. The levels of creatinine in both plasma and urine are affected much more by renal function than muscle breakdown.
The biggest single marker of acute muscle breakdown is myoglobin in urine, although it's unlikely you'd find a lab willing / able to measure it in the 21st century. It's generally a qualitative investigation.
Creatine Kinase levels can give an indication of muscle breakdown- particularly if you are looking at the MM isoenzyme- however in the case of someone like Steve I'd wonder if he's 'normalised' to a 'steady state' and his enzyme results would be back into the reference range for a heathy adult?
The creatinine is simply a marker of the renal damage - in itself it's a pretty benign substance. The damage is to the renal tubules through a variety of chemical and physiological effects - which is why both hydration and mineral intake are vital factors for endurance athletes.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 03 January, 2016, 10:43:01 pm
I was going to have a more thorough delve into the data (including average speeds) next week when the holidays are over.

Had a brief look at the data (the "Full Data" sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e6hVMqFKwaIvcj-Mx8GNRs1UZl5QiYmbg4LZjMMLYwg/edit#gid=0 )

If we assume that Steve will need 220mpd+ over the next ~210 days then he either needs to get faster, spend longer in the saddle each day, or a combination of both.

His two original schedules differed by the expected average speeds. The time spent each day in the saddle was the same for each month.

Quote
The next thing I did was to think about how many hours I’d expect to spend riding, not including stops, on a typical day for whichever given month. For example, I thought that spending 12-14 hours would be about right for a typical January day, on a daily basis. Whereas in June, riding for 16-18 hours would be about right. I based the figures on my years of experience of all year round long distance cycling.

(I strongly doubt that Steve can ride 18 hours a day, day in day out for more than 2 months. With a couple of hours off the bike for eating, washing, toilet, etc that's only 4 hours sleep a day. He might have been able to maintain that for a couple of weeks on some previous long ride [Grand Triangle/etc] but that doesn't mean he can do it for 60+ days).

All following calculations start from Jan 1st 2016, so his mileage to that point is 27827.7 miles and he needs the rest (based on a 76000 mile record from Kurt) over the remaining 219 days (219.96mpd).

The historical data shows he was able to regularly do 13.5 hours a day moving time as he has managed this consistently when not injured, recovering or ill. He'll only have a good chance at the record from the restart if he avoids illness and injury! But he never had a 7 day average of more than 14.5 hours. Would this have been different without the injury or illness, we don't know. But basing a schedule on the expectation of being able to move up to 16h moving time a day is certainly risky (but we'll have a go). It just may not possible with that level of accumulated fatigue. It's one thing Steve can't plan as he's never tried to ride that much consistently with this level of accumulated fatigue.

His current mean ride speed is 14.65mph (from the restart, it was 14.54mph for the original attempt) but these include some slower days due to injury/etc. The interquartile mean (i.e. the average after throwing away the shortest quarter and longest quarter of results) for the second attempt is 14.91mph (see the "Statistics" sheet on the google docs link above for more info on this).

So, for scenario #1 (he gets faster) let's assume he can peak at 14 hours a day even in the summer. I'll take Jan/Feb to be 13h/day, Mar 13.5h/day and Apr/May/Jun/Jul/Aug at 14h/day.

At 14.65mph this works out at 190.45miles, 197.775miles and 205.1miles and, no great surprise, he's 4361 miles short of 76000.

How fast would he need to get within the constraints of those hourly riding limits and good luck of no illness or off days...

Those riding times add to 2990.5 hours over those 219 days. (76000-27827.7)/2990.5 = 16.11mph

A progressive increase from the current 14.65mph would be bad. January at 14.65mph and Feb at 15.5mph would require the rest of the riding to be done at 16.5mph to beat the expected 76000. If he's going to increase his speed (and not the time he rides) then he needs to magically get faster right now (whether this is drafting, lifts for tailwinds, whatever).

Scenario 2 (he rides for longer each day):-

Steve seems happy currently riding 13 hour days, so lets reset the schedule to:

Jan/Feb: 13h
Mar: 13.5h
Apr: 14h
May: 15h
Jun/Jul: 16h
Aug: 16h (he's only got 6 days in August so we'll increase it from the original plan of 15h).

Note that the later figures are the lower end of his estimates for how long he could do (I'll work it out with the middle and upper ends in a bit).

That works out at a total of 3155.5 hours over the remaining 219 days.

If he rides to this schedule at his current average speed (14.65mph) he misses by (76000-27827.7)-(3155.5*14.65) = 1944.225 miles.

That's close, so how much faster would he have to ride if he rides for longer.

Scenario 3 (he rides faster and for longer...):-

Take those 3155.5 hours of the lower end of the revised schedule...

(76000-27827.7)/3155.5 = 15.26mph

That's an increase of 0.7mph on what he's been doing recently (and the interquartile mean speed for the original attempt was 14.85mph and the restarted attempt 14.91mph, so he's not far off that already).

At the middle of the spectrum we add a further hour each day to get 3374.5 hours. (76000-27827.7)/3374.5 = 14.3mph

At the top end of the spectrum we add another hour each day to get 3593.5 hours. (76000-27827.7)/3593.5 = 13.41mph

But I strongly doubt that Steve (or anyone really) can put in 17 let alone 18 hours a day of riding for 60+ days consistently.

The lower end of the schedule may be possible as it represents 4 months of roughly what he is doing now (and has done for many months in total) followed by 3 and a bit months of longer hours, but it's still an unknown (as Steve has never consistently managed more than 14 hours a day of moving time). 16 hours a day riding time leaves very little time for sleep after eating/ablutions/shower/chores/etc.

The lower version ends up as an average speed of 15.26mph and daily distances of 198.9 (Jan/Feb), 206.55 (Mar), 214.2 (Apr), 229.5 (May), 244.8 (Jun/Jul/Aug).

A slight speed increase is required but I think the key will be to optimising his day to make fitting in the longer rides easier. 1h30m pub lunch stops (like this evening) are going to eat (no pun intended) into his sleep and recovery. Sitting down and resting whilst you wait/eat food is one thing, and some of it is required as you can't just bolt your food down and go straight back out on the bike, but it's not sleep. I haven't looked at Kurt's stopped time data but I assume it's considerably less as Alicia can time the food preparation perfectly for his arrival so he is in complete control of how long he stops for.

Steve relying on commercial food stops is a big risk to this but it might be managable depending on his diet and with good planning. Any extra time (than planned) waiting means lost sleep. Start gaining too much sleep debt and the riding time per day or speed suffers (and, like several have pointed out, shows as a bunch of good long days followed by one or two shorter days with all the advantage of the longer days lost).

Obviously other tactics (lifts to the start of a tailwind, drafting) are possibilities but they come with their own trade-offs and problems[1], but any increase in average speed will help keep the sleep debt in check if time isn't wasted on other things.

Anyway, that's enough, it's made me a lot more positive about the continuation with the restarted attempt but it all hinges on whether Steve can get that little bit faster and build up to a few more hours riding each day and maintain this almost without fail.

1. Organisation most notably, and taking the pathological case of being driven 300km every day to the start of a tailwind means at least 3 hours a day in a car, which doesn't lend itself well to quality sleep and isn't that productive...picking numbers from my arse: 150km into the wind at 22kph = 6.81h, 150km with the wind at 32kph = 4.68h. The 3 hour car journey would just be saving you 6.81h-4.68h = 2h 8m, so a net loss. You'd need 150km at 22kph to be balanced by 150km at 40kph to earn back the 3 hours it would take to drive back to the start point (assuming 100kph). Unlikely. Kurt benefits from tailwind lifts because he's sleeping in the camper van so he doesn't have his sleep disrupted at the end of the transfer.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 03 January, 2016, 11:02:28 pm
Extremely thorough number-crunching GB, and certainly puts things into clear focus.  Presumably Steve and the team have done something similar and will be able to judge progress against these figures over the next few weeks.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 03 January, 2016, 11:07:59 pm
Interesting stats. If he made no change to average speed, he would have to do (76000-27827)/14.65 = 3288 hours, which is almost exactly 15 hours a day. He could theoretically do that.
However that's average, and if he's forced to do less in "winter" then it pushes the average required in summer up. Can't really get away with setting off at gone 9 am for long though?

Driving 300 km to get a tail wind would be quite hard without hitting hills (and/or the drive back involving the M25 which could push it the wrong side of 5 hours! )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 03 January, 2016, 11:13:06 pm
So basically, if he's being driven it needs to be a vehicle he can sleep in a la Kurt, or perhaps shorter hops (to gain some gravitational advantage perhaps?) while he eats...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 03 January, 2016, 11:24:34 pm
Thanks greenbank.

It seems then that a good part of the enormous advantage of a camper + driver is not so much headwind avoidance but faffage reduction: having everything to hand at the start and end of each day (clean kit, charged batteries, computer and mapping resources etc.).

Is there any information on how long Steve spends not moving during the day? Reducing this might be one of the more readily available means of gaining time while maintaining sleep.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 03 January, 2016, 11:48:08 pm
There surely has to be a contingency element included in any projection.  The Sisyphean nature of the challenge means that any day's shortfall, for whatever reason, had an adverse effect on subsequent days.  It's unrealistic to think there won't be some of these in a 7-month period.  Just looking at Jo's charts shows what a devastating effect a simple virus can have.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 03 January, 2016, 11:57:18 pm
He has already spent the contingency on the losses due to illness and diet adaptation. That's the biggest reason why I think a rest and restart will ultimately be required. There's no scope for any further slippage in the current attempt.

But since a restart would be best made on 1/1/17 (to keep the 'calendar year' purists happy) he may as well have a go as there would be enough time to recover from August 7th 2016 until then anyway. Then, health aside, the only question is whether Steve would be up for another 12 months in the saddle after doing pretty much 19 months on and 5 months off.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mcshroom on 04 January, 2016, 12:00:21 am
I don't suppose we will be told, but Steve's creatinine level would be of interest wrt his kidney functionality. I know a bit about this sort of thing, for the wrong reasons. In a healthy male, creatinine (the waste product from muscle breakdown) should be at 0.7 to 1.2 mg/dL.

Kidney failure isn't a binary thing. You can, and do survive with much higher levels than this. Typically, dialysis patients range from about 6 to 12mg/dL.
You are using USAnian units rather than SI units in use in most of the world.
The breakdown of muscle to creatine and its conversion to creatinine is not a linear process. The levels of creatinine in both plasma and urine are affected much more by renal function than muscle breakdown.
The biggest single marker of acute muscle breakdown is myoglobin in urine, although it's unlikely you'd find a lab willing / able to measure it in the 21st century. It's generally a qualitative investigation.
Creatine Kinase levels can give an indication of muscle breakdown- particularly if you are looking at the MM isoenzyme- however in the case of someone like Steve I'd wonder if he's 'normalised' to a 'steady state' and his enzyme results would be back into the reference range for a heathy adult?
The creatinine is simply a marker of the renal damage - in itself it's a pretty benign substance. The damage is to the renal tubules through a variety of chemical and physiological effects - which is why both hydration and mineral intake are vital factors for endurance athletes.

Don't follow that these are USAninan units? The measurements are given in metric units, even if a deci-litre (100 ml) is not an SI graduation.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Kim on 04 January, 2016, 12:02:27 am
Don't follow that these are USAninan units? The measurements are given in metric units, even if a deci-litre (100 ml) is not an SI graduation.

I'm guessing that the leftpondians use mg/dl and we use mmol/l (or similar).  A source of confusion familiar to sufferers of dire beaties.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 04 January, 2016, 12:03:57 am
Is there any information on how long Steve spends not moving during the day? Reducing this might be one of the more readily available means of gaining time while maintaining sleep.

Yes, here's the full movement chart for Steve for 2015 (and Jan 1-2 2016). You can clearly see where it all begins to fall apart in November. Which of course is one of the reasons the challenge remains on a knife edge, but it also suggests that there is plenty of scope for improvement by cutting down on stopped time during the day. According to Idai's interview it was a change to on the bike snacking in ann effort to cut down on stopped time that ln part led to Steve's health issues. However, now, if the diet change has worked, he may be on a better footing for reduced daytime stops and sustainable nutrition.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay367Small.png)

(and the full sized version (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay367.png)).

I've been measuring Steve's average moving speed by sampling at 5 minute intervals and only including moving time and average speed for those 5 minutes with real movement. This gives a slightly lower figure than those included on Strava, but the trend over time is what is important:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/averageSpeedJan2.png)

His speed has been slowly dropping since the restart although that had been masked slightly by decreasing his daytime stopped time. At least since his all-clear from the medics, his speed is climbing again. Also noteworthy is Kurt's increase in speed since doing Flatwood loops with the finish in sight.

This all points to an unlikely but not impossible chance of being able to take the record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MacB on 04 January, 2016, 12:14:18 am
He has already spent the contingency on the losses due to illness and diet adaptation. That's the biggest reason why I think a rest and restart will ultimately be required. There's no scope for any further slippage in the current attempt.

But since a restart would be best made on 1/1/17 (to keep the 'calendar year' purists happy) he may as well have a go as there would be enough time to recover from August 7th 2016 until then anyway. Then, health aside, the only question is whether Steve would be up for another 12 months in the saddle after doing pretty much 19 months on and 5 months off.

Makes sense, also from what I can see Kurt seems to have been roughly quartering a lot of rides. If you break his day into 4 x 3hr stints then, with his average speeds, that means about 2.5hrs riding and a half hour break...rinse and repeat. If he does that for the first 3 stints then just rides until happy/knackered on the 4th, I make it that he has been able to keep to 14hrs and below ride/rest time daily. More importantly it means 10hrs down time and enough slack to be able to gear up and down as required.

Not sure how well the above applies to the full year but the routine, and loops, settled into in the latter months seem to follow this pattern.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 04 January, 2016, 12:18:20 am
According to the UMCA HAMR Leader Board Kurt finished today on 75079 miles, which means he has already broken the record.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

It does say at the top of the graph "This (unofficial) information is updated every 3 hours, starting at 00:00 UTC."

I wonder if there is some mistake. Kurt's ride, according to his own reckoning, wasn't enough today. Today he did 302.8km, according to Strava.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/spreadsheet.php gives the same figure, presumably from the same source.

Edit: Kurt makes it pretty plain on Facebook that he expects to break the record between 2.30 and 4.30 tomorrow afternoon, so I have no idea what the UMCA is up to.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: teamcinzano on 04 January, 2016, 12:58:59 am
It looks like the HAM'R data had an extra 160 miles entered on day 314 for Kurt. That accounts for the discrepancy.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MikeFromLFE on 04 January, 2016, 08:07:52 am
Don't follow that these are USAninan units? The measurements are given in metric units, even if a deci-litre (100 ml) is not an SI graduation.

I'm guessing that the leftpondians use mg/dl and we use mmol/l (or similar).  A source of confusion familiar to sufferers of dire beaties.
Correct - most of the worl use molar units
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: orraloon on 04 January, 2016, 08:09:01 am
FB posts by Kurt state just under 140 miles to go, expects to pass the marker between 2 and 4 EST, followed by a 'victory lap' then beers...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 04 January, 2016, 11:05:52 am
... but it also suggests that there is plenty of scope for improvement by cutting down on stopped time during the day.

Thanks so much jo.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 04 January, 2016, 11:30:02 am
Kurt should save the beers until the 10th.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 04 January, 2016, 11:31:29 am
Steve can only cut down his stopped time during the day with intensive support. He is trying to do it 'Audax fashion' with food from commercial establishments and very limited support and it is eating up (see what I did there?) too much time when he should be riding.

Combine that with late starts from overnight stops in hotels (or from home) and Steve cannot ride for sufficient hours each day. Put that behaviour together with a low average speed and the daily distances just aren't being done. Sure, there is a day or 2 or 3 which get close to the mark but he isn't able to do so for even a week at a time, let alone for months on end.

He had the opportunity for exactly that intensive 24hr support from an experienced Steve support crew between Christmas and New Year (to see if it would be enough to make the difference) and his team said "No thanks."
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 11:48:00 am
Anything new to add LWaB?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 04 January, 2016, 11:55:01 am
I wonder if anyone has offered to help Steve over Christmas and new year, but got no response, followed by a no thank you?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 04 January, 2016, 12:10:31 pm
Anything new to add LWaB?

Is the team offering anything new? Or are they just going 'same old, same old' and watching Steve grind himself away in a hopeless quest to save his 2nd attempt?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 04 January, 2016, 12:13:49 pm
It's good to see this thread has now calmed down btw :thumbsup:

Slightly. For about a day.   ::-)

Doing that interview has had as much effect as Chris Froome publishing his data; nothing will silence the hard-core sceptics.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 04 January, 2016, 12:16:43 pm
The mindless 'Go Steve' chant is putting Steve into the same position he was in at the end of last year - a failed attempt on the year record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 04 January, 2016, 12:29:25 pm
The mindless 'Go Steve' chant is putting Steve into the same position he was in at the end of last year - a failed attempt on the year record.

and what about all the Strava kudos, and well wishing comments..?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 04 January, 2016, 12:33:42 pm
It's good to see this thread has now calmed down btw :thumbsup:

Slightly. For about a day.   ::-)

Doing that interview has had as much effect as Chris Froome publishing his data; nothing will silence the hard-core septics.

FTFY
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 04 January, 2016, 12:34:13 pm
What about the Strava kudos and well-wishing comments? The desires of some folk for a record-bestowing fairy to grant Steve his wish are pretty much useless.

Do not think that I wish Steve ill. I want nothing more than for him to take the record and saying in August 'I told you so' won't be any compensation. I want Steve to fulfil his talent and long-held desire to actually take the record. Another gallant defeat won't do that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 04 January, 2016, 12:58:09 pm
I don't think that Steve's ride needs a realistic chance of reaching the record to sustain itself. I did wonder at what point it might take off in the direction of Forrest Gump's three year run. That was alluded to in the Daily Mirror article shortly before the moped accident, the one in the 'weird news' section.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/meet-cyclist-bidding-ride-75000-5420065

I think that the 'underdog' component can continue to garner occasional media interest. Idai and Hoppo have sufficient experience of publicity to keep the story ticking over, and that's all to the good in terms of promoting Audax. At some point Steve will stop, as in the film.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgnJ8GpsBG8
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jackt on 04 January, 2016, 12:58:51 pm
I asked Idai about whether a 3rd attempt had ever been considered. The answer I got - 'we don't think about that because that's thinking about quitting' - wasn't really satisfactory, though a quite understandable answer from an official spokesman as opposed to from Steve himself.

It may be that Steve has ruled out a 3rd attempt, I can certainly see why he might! Which means this is it. And if that's so, I can understand why he will wish to persist, even as the chances of breaking the record become ever more vanishingly small. Perhaps wants to 'give it his best' shot with the audax style approach, set a PB that he can be proud of, even if he's only 3rd or 4th in the rankings. Come August he'll be a free man, and able to get on with the rest of his life.

If he has countenanced a 3rd attempt, one with a radically different approach, i.e. not 'audax style', more Kurt style with more support on the road, then it does seem irrational to persist with this attempt. The time would better spent getting organised, recovered, getting in some specific training so he starts in the best possible condition for the task ahead, refining his diet, and setting everything in place for 1 Jan 2017.

None of us are inside Steve's head so this is all conjecture, but the Year Record is sporting spectacle and that's what we're encouraged to do. One thing I am certain is that Steve is big enough and ugly enough not to let any chatter on the internet discourage him from what he wants to do, or to give him false hopes. Ultimately, as Idai said to me, it's his life and he's living it. Viva Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 04 January, 2016, 01:07:31 pm
He's decided to continue for the time being whilst there still is a chance of beating the record. The interview made it clear that if you don't try then you can't possibly succeed. The feelings of regret for not even giving it a shot could be overwhelming. I can understand why throwing in the towel with no certain plan of trying again in the future would be very difficult.

So whilst he continues I wish him well and that he remains safe. I think it's going to be extremely difficult to achieve, the numbers are stacked against him, but maybe he can and there is still a small chance he can succeed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jackt on 04 January, 2016, 01:22:18 pm
The language of packing, quitting, throwing in the towel, etc doesn't really help. It might seem like the easiest thing to do is to stop, and Steve's mind and body must be desperate to rest. But to stop with the intention of starting again, and not only to start again but to admit that you got it wrong before, to question everything you thought and did, and to spend time and effort devising a new plan that has a greater chance of breaking the record, well that's not a weak thing to do, that takes some courage.

I'm not saying that's what Steve should do, but that it's not reasonable to frame the dilemma as a battle between courage and weakness.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 04 January, 2016, 01:26:53 pm
Some bloke said this:

Quote
The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.

He also said this:

Quote
After climbing a great hill, one only finds that there are many more hills to climb.

I don't think he was a cyclist.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jackt on 04 January, 2016, 01:27:18 pm
More from Idai here on the CTC website:

http://www.ctc.org.uk/article/campaigns-guide/steve

Includes elaboration on 'the plan', at least in terms of target mileages:

“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."



Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 04 January, 2016, 01:30:48 pm
He's decided to continue for the time being whilst there still is a chance of beating the record. The interview made it clear that if you don't try then you can't possibly succeed. The feelings of regret for not even giving it a shot could be overwhelming. I can understand why throwing in the towel with no certain plan of trying again in the future would be very difficult.

So whilst he continues I wish him well and that he remains safe. I think it's going to be extremely difficult to achieve, the numbers are stacked against him, but maybe he can and there is still a small chance he can succeed.

And there is a plan to reassess at the end of this month. In the meantime he deserves every encouragement. I don't think there is anything mindless about such support. We all know how the numbers are looking but it remains possible, for now, that things could change.

The option of a set loop with pre-arranged and pre-prepared food has to be given further consideration, assuming that the idea of a camper + driver / cook has been rejected.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 04 January, 2016, 01:35:51 pm
It's interesting that Foghat was widely vilified (at least, by those who are too myopic and fanboiish to see the truth in everything else he/she wrote) for this comment:
Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....

While no-one even responded to Ben T's comment:
Could it be that his intention is now not to break any record, but simply to do nothing but cycling for evermore, every day - for ever?

I hope that Steve is given appropriate support and advice - which takes into account what he will have achieved and what the new projected mileage requirement will be - when the time comes for reassessment at the end of January.  Mindless encouragement is the last thing that he needs.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 04 January, 2016, 01:39:02 pm
The media environment for long distance cycling is an interesting one. Hoppo is best known for being the first British RAAM finisher, few now remembers what his position was. His LEJOGLE record attempt a few years ago was in bad weather and he packed. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/endurance-cyclist-chris-hopkinson-launches-world-record-1700-mile-lands-end-to-john-ogroats-and-back-8557151.html

January is a time of year when press releases are welcome in media offices, as there's not much going on. The internet magnifies their effect for supporters, who don't see where they feature in the news outlets.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 04 January, 2016, 01:42:49 pm
It's interesting that Foghat was widely vilified (at least, by those who are too myopic and fanboiish to see the truth in everything else he/she wrote) for this comment:
Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....

While no-one even responded to Ben T's comment:
Could it be that his intention is now not to break any record, but simply to do nothing but cycling for evermore, every day - for ever?

Possibly because both are unfounded speculation that are flatly contradicted by what Steve himself has stated.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 04 January, 2016, 01:53:26 pm
“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."

If he is targeting 205 daily miles by March, that can't be the total mileage/ days since restart (that would require 230? daily from now). It has to be targeting consistently averaging 205 daily miles for a week.

After that date, Steve would have to cover impossible daily distances (somewhere around 250? Haven't crunched the numbers yet) to actually get the record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 04 January, 2016, 01:59:31 pm
Possibly because both are unfounded speculation that are flatly contradicted by what Steve himself has stated.

I suspect that the cause of that speculation may have been at least partly the last couple of paragraphs of this Guardian interview, which was also what contributed to my own recent period of doubt about the undertaking.

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/dec/25/steve-abraham-cycling-year-in-the-saddle-for-record-chaser

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jack_P on 04 January, 2016, 02:02:01 pm
Stop now and have to go find a job, or have 8 months of cycling (despite the weather) I know what I'd do, record or not.  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 04 January, 2016, 02:03:03 pm
the way i see it now is that Steve will continue to ride in his usual audax style until august to see how many miles he can get and hopefully exceed the first attempt's mileage. yes, it might be painful to admit that the record is out of reach, but why not give it your best shot and see what you can achieve anyway. it's his ride and ultimately he decides how to ride it, what it means to him and what will he do afterwards.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 04 January, 2016, 02:15:18 pm
If this is it, and there is to be no new attempt - then I completely see the sense in going for it and seeing what happens.   With a reassessment at the end of the month.

What I don't understand is why you would then keep plugging on with the same strategy that has already failed to hit the numbers he now needs.

I also have no idea why the idea of vehicle transfers is now being investigated when all the stats show there is not enough hours in the day for vehicle transfers to be effective in this country.... these would have been useful during the storms but its too late for this now.   It simply takes too long to drive a car with Steve inside to where he needs to be to take advantage of the wind.   He wont have time to sleep or recover if this approach is taken.  This is only workable with an RV and a committed assistant - he has neither of these things so this should be ruled out.

The only way Kurt has sustained big days safely, for weeks on end is by riding a flat, fast loop with good riders helping him.   He has had to break out of this onto roads for the good of his sanity but its those flat loops that have gained him the record

I can not see why this is against any "Audax" philosophy(much more noble than vehicle transfers imo).   He can keep the same bike, doesn't need an RV and he can cycle to and from the loop each day.    He just needs to find a decent loop either on closed or open roads (I would say open is better as it allows other riders to help him).   Personally I would like to see him dropped off and picked up every day from the 'loop' for a month and encourage riders to turn up any time and ride with him.  Use existing funds to pay for massage and good food every evening and even pay for food to be delivered to him on the loop.

If he is going to carry on - do it properly and have a real crack with the money that is left.     

I do not see any other way he can safely increase his speed to 16-17mph for months on end which is what is now needed for a successful effort
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 04 January, 2016, 02:21:46 pm
Possibly because both are unfounded speculation that are flatly contradicted by what Steve himself has stated.

I suspect that the cause of that speculation may have been at least partly the last couple of paragraphs of this Guardian interview, which was also what contributed to my own recent period of doubt about the undertaking.

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/dec/25/steve-abraham-cycling-year-in-the-saddle-for-record-chaser

Perhaps knee-jerk reactions to such thoughts aren't the best way to approach supporting Steve. I think in particular the comment from Foghat isn't that dissimilar to something I thought Steve had said in an interview sometime in mid 2015 - I can't find it now to check. Of course, that was before the restart, and was in the context of the moped having derailed his first attempt.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 04 January, 2016, 02:32:41 pm
More from Idai here on the CTC website:

http://www.ctc.org.uk/article/campaigns-guide/steve

Includes elaboration on 'the plan', at least in terms of target mileages:

“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."

In that interview Idai appears to have claimed this:

"his average riding distance reduced by 10 miles per day in December, from 205 to 195."

I'm trying to make sense of that comment. It doesn't match reality for his average speed for December (he lost over 1000 miles vs the Godwin average in December - I make his December average 161mpd). If perhaps it means the average for the whole attempt dropped from 205 to 195 then again that's incorrect - it dropped from 197 at the start of December to around 190 at the end. If we take the first attempt as the basis, that was around 170mpd at the end.

So what Idai is quoted as saying appears to have no basis in reality. What is he talking about?

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 04 January, 2016, 02:36:44 pm
I was wondering the same. Initially I thought he meant average to date (i.e. the Godwin line). But to go from here to the Godwin line by March is a very tall order, and as you say, he's currently around 190 mpd since the reboot, not 195.

Confused.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 04 January, 2016, 02:45:47 pm
That's probably why they don't like YACF, it puts the ride into perspective, too much perspective.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 04 January, 2016, 02:47:25 pm
Top idea from Greenbank, here: https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=91020.msg1967925#msg1967925

I'd offer me and The Van for a day. Wouldn't be a game changer, but it would give Steve an easy day without losing too many miles.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 04 January, 2016, 02:59:50 pm
“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."
If he is targeting 205 daily miles by March, that can't be the total mileage/ days since restart. It has to be targeting consistently hitting 205 daily miles for a week.

After that date, Steve would have to cover stupid daily distances (somewhere around 250? Haven't crunched the numbers yet) to actually get the record.



Being charitable and assuming that Idai means that he's working to get his average up to 205 by the beginning of March...
Assuming that Steve's "current" mileage is 190mpd.  This his average since the beginning of the attempt, though as simonp points out, his December average was just 161mpd.  His recent progress has been more encouraging, though 160 miles in tailwind yesterday and a late start today are perhaps an indication that his residual tiredness is still hampering him.
He's done 28249.7m in 149 days already.
Assuming a linear increase from his average of ~190 miles per day to 205 miles per day over the next 57 days gives (190+205)/2 x 57 = 11257.5 miles
Giving a total of 28249.7 + 11257.5 = 39507.2 miles in 206 days.
Assuming (as is very unlikely!) Kurt does not surpass Godwin's record, the target is 75065, that leaves 35557.8 miles to do in 159 days, an average of 223.6 mpd from the beginning of March.

If, OTOH one assumes that Idai means that he's working to get his average up to 205 by the end of March...
He's done 28249.7m in 149 days already.
It might be more realistic to take Steve's "current" mileage as 180mpd
Assuming a linear increase from his average of ~180 miles per day to 205 miles per day over the next 88 days gives (180+205)/2 x 88 = 16940miles
Giving a total of 28249.7 + 16940 = 45189.7 miles in 237 days.
Assuming Kurt takes the record to 76200, that leaves ~31010 miles to do in 128 days, an average of 242.3 mpd from the end of March onwards.

The indications are that even the lower of these target rates is not sustainable by Steve for any great period of time, let alone for 5 months straight.  Who on Team Steve is doing the arithmetic?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 03:34:20 pm
The indications are that even the lower of these target rates is not sustainable by Steve for any great period of time, let alone for 5 months straight.  Who on Team Steve is doing the arithmetic?

Most of it comes from Steve's original plan where he said he'd be comfortable with building up to 16 hours riding a day in June/July. If he can do this consistently then there's no need for a huge speed increase, the required speed increase is ~0.5mph. He's shown he can maintain ~13.5 hours a day for prolonged periods already, so I'm guessing the rest goes something like this:-

Jan/Feb: 31+29 days = 60 days. 13.5 hours a day @ 15 mph (~0.4mph speed increase on what he is doing now) = 202.5 miles a day = 12150 miles for Jan/Feb

By this point (start of March) we hope for another 0.2mph average speed increase.

Mar: 31 days @ 13.5 hours a day @ 15.2 mph = 205.2 miles per day = 6361.2 miles
Apr: 30 days @ 14 hours a day @ 15.2 mph = 212.8 miles per day = 6384 miles
May: 31 days @ 15 hours a day @ 15.2 mph = 228 miles per day = 7068 miles
Jun/Jul/Aug: 30+31+6 days = 67 days @ 16 hours a day @ 15.2 mph = 243.2 miles per day = 16294.4 miles

12150 + 6361.2 + 6384 + 7068 + 16294.4 = 48257.6 miles

Add on the 27827.7 to the end of 2015 and you get: 76085.3 miles, which should be just beyond where Kurt ends up.

So no huge increase in speed required (only ~0.5mph on what he is doing now and jo's graphs show that his average speed has been slowly climbing over the last couple of months).

Any further speed increase is a bonus and means he's in the saddle for less time each day.

243.2 miles / 15.5 mph = 15h42
243.2 miles / 16 mph = 15h12
243.2 miles / 16.5 mph = 14h44

The question is whether he can put the extra time in the saddle and maintain it consistently without building up too much fatigue or sleep debt as it is unlikely he's going to suddenly get several mph faster.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 03:38:21 pm
...
If he has countenanced a 3rd attempt, one with a radically different approach, i.e. not 'audax style', more Kurt style with more support on the road, then it does seem irrational to persist with this attempt. The time would better spent getting organised, recovered, getting in some specific training so he starts in the best possible condition for the task ahead, refining his diet, and setting everything in place for 1 Jan 2017.

Do you not think there would be enough time to prepare for a third attempt between 7th August 2016 and 1st January 2017? It's 147 days.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 04 January, 2016, 03:45:05 pm
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours actual riding, even when fresh.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 03:51:32 pm
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.

True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.

Doing the Mersey Roads 24 and PBP will not have helped either. If there's another attempt in 2017 then it would be interesting to see if LEL featured as that might slot in to the plan a bit better.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 04 January, 2016, 03:56:19 pm
Before Steve got crashed out, he was already riding slower than he expected and increasing his hours to compensate.

He hasn't been able to do 14+ hours repeatedly at any point recently. Every time he does, he has another short day or two. That cycle has repeated for virtually all of last year. There haven't been any indications that it is changing.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 04 January, 2016, 03:57:13 pm

Jan/Feb: 31+29 days = 60 days. 13.5 hours a day @ 15 mph (0.4mph speed increase on what he is doing now) = 202.5 miles a day = 12150 miles for Jan/Feb
Take off the 54 miles that he's lost in the three days that he's had so far...  It's nearly two months since Steve last did two consecutive rides of more than 202.5 miles - averaging 202.5 in January seems pretty unlikely (especially since Steve didn't leave Goole until 10:30am this morning).

(If jo is feeling as if he wants to spend even longer souping up his charts, the "time riding" graphic could be enhanced by an overlay showing the local sunrise/sunset times  ;))
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Charlie Boy on 04 January, 2016, 04:01:33 pm
Doing the Mersey Roads 24 and PBP will not have helped either. If there's another attempt in 2017 then it would be interesting to see if LEL featured as that might slot in to the plan a bit better.

I couldn't ride a bike for several weeks after PBP in 2011. That Steve has continued to ride the distances he has, day-in, day-out, is a mark of the man. After all, he has done the equivalent of 85 PBPs back to back.

Somewhere he said he didn't want to ride a bike indefinitely, so I wonder of he has decided that there will not be a third attempt and it is all or nothing now. I am beginning to suspect so as this is the only logical conclusion given the way the numbers are stacking up, and that he is hoping for some deserved good luck for once to pull something spectacular out of the bag.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 04:15:52 pm
Before Steve got crashed out, he was already riding slower than he expected and increasing his hours to compensate.

I don't think he entered the challenge with the right fitness levels at all, he certainly changed a lot during the first few months of the challenge.

He hasn't been able to do 14+ hours repeatedly at any point recently. Every time he does, he has another short day or two. That cycle has repeated for virtually all of last year. There haven't been any indications that it is changing.

The increase in daylight hours and temperature come spring will provide some help, we'll just have to see if it's enough.

I can see how it could be possible if Steve is lucky and things go his way. I don't see anything from his history that can be used to prove that this attempt is ultimately fruitless although I think the odds are very very long on him suceeding. Up until he started the challenge I doubt he'd ever ridden >5000 miles in a month but he managed to do more than that for 3 months straight.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Canardly on 04 January, 2016, 04:23:30 pm
100,000 miles in 500 days?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 04 January, 2016, 04:40:14 pm
“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."

If he is targeting 205 daily miles by March, that can't be the total mileage/ days since restart (that would require 230? daily from now). It has to be targeting consistently averaging 205 daily miles for a week.

After that date, Steve would have to cover impossible daily distances (somewhere around 250? Haven't crunched the numbers yet) to actually get the record.

Back of the spreadsheet maths suggests that if Steve can rise steadily to average 205mpd during March (say 195mpd in Jan, 200mpd in Feb), he will then require c230mpd for the rest of the time. A post clock-change boost to 220mpd in April, and then 235mpd from May onwards would do it.

(I was a bit surprised it wasn't close to 250.)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 04 January, 2016, 04:41:55 pm
I don't think he entered the challenge with the right fitness levels at all, he certainly changed a lot during the first few months of the challenge.
...

i remember showing photos of 01-01-15 start to my dad last year, where he was surprised that Steve will be carrying 15-20kg surplus weight on him. i argued that it's a part of a plan.. O:-)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tewdric on 04 January, 2016, 07:08:27 pm
Idai has posted a very long winded and unnecessarily tedious interview on faceache essentially saying that shit happens, it's on a knife edge and they will see how January goes before making a decision on carry on or not.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 04 January, 2016, 07:10:22 pm
The history of extreme endurance challenges (i.e. efforts lasting months, not a fortnight) shows a common theme:
participants expect to lose weight,  and bulk-up in advance accordingly.

I'm sure they know there is some performance hit at the start. If anything, cycling may be the least "weight-sensitive" transport mode. Especially on routes that are as flat as you can find.

(most recent - the ex-soldier who walked the Himalayan chain, currently on telly-box. )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 04 January, 2016, 08:11:22 pm
Steve told me at the 24 that he didn't have time to ride prior to the event, and that left him unprepared. At 6.45 in this interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJES8l1YwoI

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 08:14:40 pm
The history of extreme endurance challenges (i.e. efforts lasting months, not a fortnight) shows a common theme:
participants expect to lose weight,  and bulk-up in advance accordingly.

For challenges where food must be carried, or where quality nutritious food may be hard/unreliable to find on the way (I'm thinking the polar ice caps or the Himalayan Chain) then it makes complete sense to bulk up beforehand; the excess fat is the emergency buffer should things get tough or it means less food needs to be carried to begin with. The fact that they lose weight also means they've underfed themselves during the challenge and/or they've planned to do this by starting with the big buffer.

But that plan (deliberately underfeed at first) doesn't make sense to me for a 12 month long cycling challenge where he's regularly visiting places where the required food is available (e.g. home). Once the excess weight is lost then food intake will need to increase anyway which may throw things part way into the challenge. It's not as if the weight loss was going to be slow and steady for the full 12 months.

The Year challenge is about maintaining a steady state in all manner of things. You need to start each day pretty much in the same shape as the day before or you'll have to adapt something during the ride which is risky. Being a little bit more tired (e.g. sleep debt) each day isn't going to work for hundreds of days in a row if there's no scope for a long lie in once in a while. A weight loss of 50g a day (which equates to a calorie deficit of 385kcal a day) would add up to close to 3 stone over the course of a year, etc.

The only thing that makes sense for planned extra weight at the beginning is to help with insulation for the first few winter months (I know I benefit from this!).

But, going back to my original comment, I wasn't referring specifically to weight when I talked about fitness levels.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 04 January, 2016, 08:26:18 pm
Steve told me at the 24 that he didn't have time to ride prior to the event, and that left him unprepared. At 6.45 in this interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJES8l1YwoI

He told me that before he started. Steve rode comparatively little distance (for him) in 2014. Talk about stacking the odds against yourself.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 08:36:22 pm
What would your schedule for a restart be then LWaB?

What reasons do you have against finishing even as late as the end of 6th August giving ~145 days to wind down, rest, recover, replan, test out a few things and train for a 1/1/17 restart?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 04 January, 2016, 08:48:21 pm
Riders who are completely stuffed can take a long time to recover. Ossie never regained his full speed. Rest and recover, start a proper training program and actually get back to cruising at evens.  Five months would be tight to do that, considering that Steve wouldn't have ridden quickly for more than two years. Training for distance is easier and quicker than training for speed.

If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 04 January, 2016, 08:53:22 pm
Rest and recover, start a proper training program and actually get back to cruising at evens.  Five months would be tight to do that, considering that Steve wouldn't have ridden quickly for more than two years. Training for distance is easier and quicker than training for speed.

The whole training period should be on the diet he's going to follow, too.  :facepalm:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 04 January, 2016, 09:09:35 pm
Steve told me at the 24 that he didn't have time to ride prior to the event, and that left him unprepared. At 6.45 in this interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJES8l1YwoI

He told me that before he started. Steve rode comparatively little distance (for him) in 2014. Talk about stacking the odds against yourself.

Steve's weight at the 2014 24 caused some comment. 50 seconds into this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJ_azKRsBT4 

Interesting to compare with 2012, at 3.28, when Steve did his best ride, supported by LWAB and HK.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl-1HEL8ieY
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 04 January, 2016, 09:12:25 pm
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.

True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.

If he was able to do >14 hours, his average speed would come down significantly.  It always does as greater tiredness sets in.  So it then needs more extra hours than thought, and so on.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 04 January, 2016, 09:14:47 pm
The history of extreme endurance challenges (i.e. efforts lasting months, not a fortnight) shows a common theme:
participants expect to lose weight,  and bulk-up in advance accordingly.

I'm sure they know there is some performance hit at the start. If anything, cycling may be the least "weight-sensitive" transport mode. Especially on routes that are as flat as you can find.

(most recent - the ex-soldier who walked the Himalayan chain, currently on telly-box. )

This might be true if access to food is limited - but I do not see this as sound stategy for an attempt like this.    The idea of winter breaks and piling on weight is redundant in modern pro cycling - I can't see how it is an advantage to start the One year TT at anything else but peak fitness.   Especially when if you ride in Steves low heart rate style you will effectively be detraining through the year.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 04 January, 2016, 09:23:04 pm
I was wondering the same. Initially I thought he meant average to date (i.e. the Godwin line). But to go from here to the Godwin line by March is a very tall order, and as you say, he's currently around 190 mpd since the reboot, not 195.

Confused.

Having listened to the interview, I agree.  I thought Idai came across well, but he didn't seem to have a grasp of the numbers. 

The single key metric which Steve should have, updated on a daily basis, is the average number of miles he needs to do per day from now to hit his target. 

It's like a limited overs cricket match; once you see that number start to rise quickly, the result is plain for all to see.  From the interview, I don't believe Idai knows that number, and therfore I don't believe anyone is telling Steve what it is day by day.  If he got the right information, he might be better able to make a better decision regarding at what point he climbs off.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: redfalo on 04 January, 2016, 09:35:05 pm
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.

True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.

If he was able to do >14 hours, his average speed would come down significantly.  It always does as greater tiredness sets in.  So it then needs more extra hours than thought, and so on.

Actually, Steve *is* doing >14 hour days at the moment, if you look at the total time elapsed rather than the moving time.
Jan 1: 203 miles, total time: 15:38hrs (moving time: 12:34hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/461088836
Jan 2: 191 miles, total time: 14:19hrs (moving time: 12:32hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/461844934
Jan 3: 163 miles, total time: 14:33hrs (moving time: 11:09hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/462749057

Getting faster is clearly only one of his challenges. Reducing the time off the bike another one. Doing both at the same time looks like a formidable task.  Lengthening the total time of a day out offers little extra potential over the long run, as that is probably not sustainable given the need for sleep.



https://www.strava.com/activities/461088836
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 04 January, 2016, 09:38:09 pm
The single key metric which Steve should have, updated on a daily basis, is the average number of miles he needs to do per day from now to hit his target.


That figure is easy to calculate (target-currentTotal)/(365-number of days ridden) so I'd be very surprised if the team are not aware of it. For info it is also always available in the table at the bottom of http://gicentre.org/oytt

I wonder if something got mistranslated in the CTC article or that someone misspoke and was quoted verbatim.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 09:58:47 pm
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.

True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.

If he was able to do >14 hours, his average speed would come down significantly.  It always does as greater tiredness sets in.  So it then needs more extra hours than thought, and so on.

Actually, Steve *is* doing >14 hour days at the moment, if you look at the total time elapsed rather than the moving time.
Jan 1: 203 miles, total time: 15:38hrs (moving time: 12:34hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/461088836
Jan 2: 191 miles, total time: 14:19hrs (moving time: 12:32hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/461844934
Jan 3: 163 miles, total time: 14:33hrs (moving time: 11:09hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/462749057

Getting faster is clearly only one of his challenges. Reducing the time off the bike another one. Doing both at the same time looks like a formidable task.  Lengthening the total time of a day out offers little extra potential over the long run, as that is probably not sustainable given the need for sleep.

https://www.strava.com/activities/461088836

His original plan was to greatly reduce the stopped time once the weather warms up. His example is 4 hours more riding time but only an increase of 1-2 hours elapsed.

Quote from: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/preparation
As fitness, conditioning and weather improves, I expect to be able to ride for longer without stopping, so although there is a 4 hour difference of riding time on the schedule between summer and winter, I expect there to be more like an hour or two difference between a days ride as I’d spend more time stopped to take shelter and have a warm drink in the winter.

There's more detail on the page itself: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/preparation

A graph of stopped time (i.e. elapsed time - moving time) would be very interesting (hint hint...)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 04 January, 2016, 10:07:48 pm
Thanks for linking to the Preparation page GB.  One of the things that sticks out there like a sore thumb is the following:

Quote
"To take advantage of the low traffic volumes in the early morning, I will get up at 4am, aiming to be on the road before 5am, preferably 4:30. This will enable me to use the fast main roads out of Milton Keynes.
Traffic tends to pick up at around 8am, so I’d have been on the road for at least 3 hours by then. By that time I should be away from major towns and hopefully heavy traffic and it would also be a good time to stop for a cup of tea and some breakfast.
Early morning starts will mean that I get maximum benefit of daylight. In June at the summer solstice day breaks at around 4am and the sun sets at around 10pm, which coincides well with my scheduled hours on the road."

That all makes complete sense, and was presumably based on his years of experience.  One of the most concerning aspects of the challenge for me has been the ever-later start times.  I just don't see how that is compatible with high-milage days or his own plans.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 04 January, 2016, 10:17:59 pm
Apologies to LWAB, it was 2013 when Steve did his greatest distance at the Mersey Roads. I never got around to doing a full video of that, as LEL intervened. Steve wasn't exactly thin then either. Here's LWAB helping Steve at the end, again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VOU2vCeXIo
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 10:19:27 pm
Riders who are completely stuffed can take a long time to recover. Ossie never regained his full speed. Rest and recover, start a proper training program and actually get back to cruising at evens.  Five months would be tight to do that, considering that Steve wouldn't have ridden quickly for more than two years. Training for distance is easier and quicker than training for speed.

Hmm, I can understand that (even with just a single data point), but with 5 months I can't help but think he could be got to a much better off point than he was on 1st Jan 2015.

If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.

That's something I hadn't considered. If Bruce doesn't have any bad luck and pushes on through the year then he's got the capacity to push it out a long way, possibly beyond Steve no matter how long he waited/trained/etc before a restart. If anything that makes the argument for Steve continuing on the current attempt all the stronger as it may be his only hope of ever holding the record. (This depends on whether Steve's goal is to break Tommy's record (and maybe Kurt's) or to be the current record holder even if for a short period.)

Lots of scope for speculation whilst they all continue to ride their bikes round and round.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 04 January, 2016, 10:37:03 pm
This thread is just the best thread ever on the internet. Of all time.
There are those who feel so compelled to post it's just uncontrollable beyond words and there is everybody else who are so irreconcilably compelled to read everything that ever gets written, we can never keep away.
Gotta laugh  :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 04 January, 2016, 10:59:00 pm
If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.

That's something I hadn't considered. If Bruce doesn't have any bad luck and pushes on through the year then he's got the capacity to push it out a long way, possibly beyond Steve no matter how long he waited/trained/etc before a restart. If anything that makes the argument for Steve continuing on the current attempt all the stronger as it may be his only hope of ever holding the record. (This depends on whether Steve's goal is to break Tommy's record (and maybe Kurt's) or to be the current record holder even if for a short period.)
Agreed.

So LWAB's plan - supported by Greenbank's analysis - results in Steve putting 3 years into never taking the record.

Go LWAB and his planning!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 04 January, 2016, 11:05:44 pm
On the shoulders of giants and all that. If Steve hadn't rekindled the interest and sorted out a set of rules with UMCA, Kurt would never have got involved (indeed, he walked away at one point, in November 2014 I think). Neither would Bruce.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 04 January, 2016, 11:10:26 pm
This thread is just the best thread ever on the internet. Of all time.
There are those who feel so compelled to post it's just uncontrollable beyond words and there is everybody else who are so irreconcilably compelled to read everything that ever gets written, we can never keep away.
Gotta laugh  :)


Boo!

Amongst the reformulations and restatements, there are some insightful gems to be found.

But nothing has really changed: Steve could do it. The way the team as a whole is going about it, as time goes on it gets more unlikely, but he could do it and I hope he does.

The only new change over the past 2 days is puzzling me. With all the discussion of strategy (dodgy team maths or not), the need for increased daily distances is clear. So why the late starts?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 04 January, 2016, 11:13:43 pm
This morning:
Quote
Woke up feeling rough and as if I was coming down with an illness. Voice got very croaky, got sleepy, stopped for rest then felt a bit less sleepy for a while. ctd in comments
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 11:17:28 pm
If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.

That's something I hadn't considered. If Bruce doesn't have any bad luck and pushes on through the year then he's got the capacity to push it out a long way, possibly beyond Steve no matter how long he waited/trained/etc before a restart. If anything that makes the argument for Steve continuing on the current attempt all the stronger as it may be his only hope of ever holding the record. (This depends on whether Steve's goal is to break Tommy's record (and maybe Kurt's) or to be the current record holder even if for a short period.)
Agreed.

So LWAB's plan - supported by Greenbank's analysis - results in Steve putting 3 years into never taking the record.

Go LWAB and his planning!

Eh? LWaB isn't responsible for any of the plan or bad luck that has Steve in the current predicament.

LWaB's plan could succeed if Bruce fails or doesn't push the record too far out.

Then again, Steve pushing on too long could be just too much and rule out any further attempt.

Who knows what the right answer is.

At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 04 January, 2016, 11:23:35 pm
At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.
LWAB is the one pissing on Steve and the Team's current efforts.

Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.

If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 04 January, 2016, 11:25:31 pm
At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.
LWAB is the one pissing on Steve and the Team's current efforts.

Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.

If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.

Constructive criticism is not the same as pissing on someones effort, or the team that backs them.

Is this really so hard to grasp?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 04 January, 2016, 11:32:16 pm
Amongst the reformulations and restatements, there are some insightful gems to be found.

Oh absolutely, I wasn't kidding.

Just going back what Wow was saying [and this is not addressed to Wow] - you know, I sometimes think that it's us here on the internet, that like to marry the authenticity of the challenge to our man Steve from MK, as if it's all his precious challenge and somehow if others take up the challenge they are kind of imposters and not really to be respected. We will respect them, but actually....almost kind of begrudgingly, like through gritted teeth. I really think that the feeling likely to be more prevalent here than it is in Steve's mind. I really wonder if he cares that much actually.

He's a curious animal, we all are in our own ways, and he's a very different kind of individual to me, way different, I have little in common with him, he's way too out there for me as regards cycling, far too dedicated and single minded than I would ever want to be, but I really don't think he does bitterness or acrimony that well. That others have come along in the wake of his enthusiasm probably gives him more satisfaction than we might to acknowledge.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 04 January, 2016, 11:35:09 pm
This morning:
Quote
Woke up feeling rough and as if I was coming down with an illness. Voice got very croaky, got sleepy, stopped for rest then felt a bit less sleepy for a while. ctd in comments

Missed that - thanks. Was that on Strava or Facebook? I still can’t see the comment.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 04 January, 2016, 11:36:41 pm
Lets review the reaction to Idai's public statement:

I've listened, of course.

I'm glad to know that a review of progress and the possibility of stopping is on the cards at the end of January. They should have done that at the end of last year but hey ho.
So LWAB is happy for a review of progress at the end of Jan. Seems reasonable enough.

In which case I see nothing constructive in the current drip-feed of pessimism. It smells of someone who really does want to see his negative predictions proven correct.

How about letting them give this their best shot until Jan 31st? It seems the obvious course, for any reasonable supporter of this record attempt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 04 January, 2016, 11:43:59 pm
How about letting them give this their best shot until Jan 31st? It seems the obvious course, for any reasonable supporter of this record attempt.

Once again you are trying to control what is said on a public forum. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 11:45:45 pm
At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.
LWAB is the one pissing on Steve and the Team's current efforts.

Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.

If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.

I disagree with LWaB on several aspects of this whole thing but he's not pissing on Steve's effort. Far from it. I'm all for a healthy dose of realism amongst all of the saccharine.

So if the current attempt fails and either Steve gives up completely or Bruce pushes the record out to something Steve can't achieve are you going to sum it up as "So the Team's plan results in Steve putting 20 months into never taking the record" ?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 04 January, 2016, 11:48:58 pm
How about letting them give this their best shot until Jan 31st? It seems the obvious course, for any reasonable supporter of this record attempt.

Once again you are trying to control what is said on a public forum. 

Ah yes, the Free Speech argument again!

You still seem to have a lot to learn on that topic. Hey ho ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 04 January, 2016, 11:51:18 pm
Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.

Not really, it doesn't say which plan is better and it can't as that depends on too many future events.

If you really believe what you wrote then you could also say that his plan is no worse than the current plan.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 04 January, 2016, 11:53:04 pm
So if the current attempt fails and either Steve gives up completely or Bruce pushes the record out to something Steve can't achieve are you going to sum it up as "So the Team's plan results in Steve putting 20 months into never taking the record" ?
You should read LWAB's comments on the fundamental binary success/faliure nature of the attempt.

I certainly dont see it as that simple; but when responding to LWAB, sometimes it is simpler to discuss things on his terms.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 04 January, 2016, 11:53:18 pm
Amongst the reformulations and restatements, there are some insightful gems to be found.

Oh absolutely, I wasn't kidding.

Just going back what Wow was saying [and this is not addressed to Wow] - you know, I sometimes think that it's us here on the internet, that like to marry the authenticity of the challenge to our man Steve from MK, as if it's all his precious challenge and somehow if others take up the challenge they are kind of imposters and not really to be respected. We will respect them, but actually....almost kind of begrudgingly, like through gritted teeth. I really think that the feeling likely to be more prevalent here than it is in Steve's mind. I really wonder if he cares that much actually.

He's a curious animal, we all are in our own ways, and he's a very different kind of individual to me, way different, I have little in common with him, he's way too out there for me as regards cycling, far too dedicated and single minded than I would ever want to be, but I really don't think he does bitterness or acrimony that well. That others have come along in the wake of his enthusiasm probably gives him more satisfaction than we might to acknowledge.

I think it was Richie Benaud who, when asked who the world's top batsman was, said that at any one time, you can't separate the top 6. On the day in question, it could simply come down to a matter of luck who does well and who doesn't. When it comes down to the 6 top distance cyclists in history, Steve is there amongst them, currently standing at number 4. He would easily have beaten Bernard Bennett other than for the bad luck of breaking his leg. I don't think that any of us doubts that he would have got well past 70,000 miles given a decent run of luck.

None of that takes away from Kurt's achievement. He was brilliant. In the early days I felt that his lack of proper preparation would let him down - how many bikes did he have broken at one time? He got away with it and played a blinder. Since early November he hasn't had a day under a Godwin until the record was pretty much in the bag. That is massively impressive when he had already had 10 months on the road. I'm not certain how many miles broken bikes cost him. It may not have been that many, but I think if he had given the attention to kit that Steve did he might have knocked a bit more time off the record.

Of course, a record like this isn't a single day. It's a whole bloody year. It represents 2.5% of Steve's time on this planet to date, 2% of Kurt's. Only very dedicated people even contemplate tackling it. I can't see Kurt ever doing this again if someone should break his record (Bruce? Steve?) in the next year or two. He's got other stuff to do with his life and he's not going to crack it when he's knocking 60. It's a really tough call on Steve, though, should he not break the record after all this effort. But, as they say, that's life.

Edit: I'll add that it has been a massive privilege for the past year following these two Titans battling it out in their own different ways. My grandchildren are too young to appreciate being told about this, but they will know all about it in due course. I suspect that Steve will, in his usual modest manner, wonder what all the fuss is about.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 04 January, 2016, 11:57:20 pm
The irony, in 'the other thread' something about trolling and petty sniping.

In an endurance challenge such as this Matt, hard questions have to be asked. Sometimes it's no good being all head in the clouds, patting someone on the back and saying 'you know best'. Not when currently Steve is still out on the road @ 175 miles. If he wants to do a Searvogel, or at least hit 200 miles he'll be looking at a 0200hrs finish. In what way possible is this a constructive effort on a record attempt - being out on the road hypothetically for 16 hours and doing 200 miles.

It's got jack shit to do with pissing on his record attempt, it's about looking at what can be done better. Idai I thought came across very well in his interview, but when it came down to the numbers and what needs to be done I don't think he really had a clue imo. Certainly at this rate, by the end of the month it well be too late.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 05 January, 2016, 12:07:25 am
The irony, in 'the other thread' something about trolling and petty sniping.
What's up - has someone upset you? We can't have that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 05 January, 2016, 12:19:05 am
Kurt is now the record holder.

One hour ago on Fb:

"There is a NEW Highest Annual Mileage Record holder!!!! Tarzan is the HAM'R!!!!!!"

Well done that man!  ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 05 January, 2016, 12:23:57 am
A key quote for me in this is "Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?"

The web is full of people telling you what such things mean, and I like this one, although it's a bit odd in parts.

Quote
This is from a dramatic monolog by the British Victorian poet, Robert Browning. The speaker is a late Renaissance Florentine artist by the name of Andrea del Sarto. He's, to put it bluntly, a remarkable craftsman but lacking in soul, vision, spiritual passion. Momentarily, he points to paintings by the great painters Raphael and Michelangelo, boasting that he could come closer to "perfection" than either of these two immortal, renowned painters. But then he quickly recognizes his own weakness and acknowledges why he's inferior to Raphael or Michelangelo: "Ah" (meaning "Let's not fool ourselves"), "A man's reach" (meaning his dream, or goal) should exceed his grasp (the material things that you can see, touch, and possess--minimal trouble and money). Most parents want their child to have more than a car, a house or an iPod. Be a doctor, a concert pianist, President of the U.S.A. Andrea can never be a great artist because painting for him comes too easily. He's lazy and has no reason to challenge himself. He "has it made" already.

His pictures have photographic realism and will appeal to the majority of the population. (But what do the masses know? Most think no more deeply or show any more vision than Andrea does--or a sloth or lobster.)

The appeal of 'The Year' lies in the amount of application it takes, as opposed to talent, that's true of most 'endurance' activities. 100 metre runners don't feel the need to take up marathons, they proved themselves in their youth doing something that came naturally to them. Anything that relies on spreadsheets and data visualisations is for a mature audience, and that's a demographic that's a bit too dominant in our society. Perhaps we concentrate too much on 'the long game'.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 05 January, 2016, 12:26:10 am
The irony, in 'the other thread' something about trolling and petty sniping.
What's up - has someone upset you? We can't have that.

Keep digging Matt, you'll find the bottom soon...

How can i put this in yacf terms (I can't be as direct as i could be on LFGSS for example) as here it is about being excellent to each other. Ah yes, how about this:

Of all the posters in this sub forum you're regularly displaying the least excellence, and that's saying something given some of them.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MrDrem on 05 January, 2016, 01:27:56 am
Looking at the data on https://goo.gl/RBHtiS Steve is fast running into a mathematical issue on his second attempt.  Even if Kurt gives up today, and doesn't turn another pedal stroke (which I think we can all agree is unlikely) Steve currently needs to do 217 miles per day just to catch up.

For the next five days, every 365 miles that Kurt does adds a mile to that daily total, and every 365 miles below that 217 daily total also adds another mile for Steve to ride later. Steve's current average distance is 190 miles per day, which means that over 5 days, he's likely to lose 135 miles, or 0.3 miles per day, and Kurt may well add 1000 miles, or 2.7 miles per day, meaning that target could creep out to 220 miles per day over the next five days.  Steve has only managed over 220 miles 20 times in the last 149 days. Even in the 87 days prior to the scooter incident, Steve only rode over 220 miles on 7 days.

I hate to throw cold water at things, but at this point I personally think this record attempt may well be too far beyond what is currently possible, and the next 5 days will be what decides that either way.

All respect to Steve, who is riding distances I can barely comprehend, even now. I hope that when he and the team make their decision at the end of the month, they take into account all of the data that is available to them. They inevitably will have data that we internet superheroes just don't have.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Justin(e) on 05 January, 2016, 03:30:12 am
Quote
Looking at the data on https://goo.gl/RBHtiS Steve is fast running into a mathematical issue on his second attempt

And yet he rides on.  An indication that his grasp exceeds his reach. Truly magnificent spirit on behalf of Steve.  Allez.
Title: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 05 January, 2016, 06:10:33 am
According to CTC article on web just published Steve is  carrying on with the second attempt.

The 'plan' if you could call it that is to ride Godwins immediately.  However looking at the current data he is stopping for 2 hours each day that he manages to ride 300km over a  minimum 14 hour period.

If he rides only Godwins, not to the new record that Steve says he will break, each week he will add 42km to the mile deficit.

Steve will continue to ride in the same way as his spokesperson says he is maximising his opportunities this way.

There is no plan to start getting back the owing distance. Wait to better weather then ride longer days in terms of miles.

If that's a 'plan' I'm the Pink Panther.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 05 January, 2016, 06:16:06 am
This thread is just the best thread ever on the internet. Of all time.
There are those who feel so compelled to post it's just uncontrollable beyond words and there is everybody else who are so irreconcilably compelled to read everything that ever gets written, we can never keep away.
Gotta laugh  :)



Certainly is
 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 05 January, 2016, 07:05:25 am
So if the current attempt fails and either Steve gives up completely or Bruce pushes the record out to something Steve can't achieve are you going to sum it up as "So the Team's plan results in Steve putting 20 months into never taking the record" ?
You should read LWAB's comments on the fundamental binary success/faliure nature of the attempt.

I certainly dont see it as that simple; but when responding to LWAB, sometimes it is simpler to discuss things on his terms.

You are missing the point Matt. There are quotes along the lines of "Insanity is doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results."

Steve and his team are now grinding along exactly the same path that ended a few days ago with Steve on the podium for year distance (at the time). In a few days' time, he'll be pushed into 4th by Kurt. Granted, if Steve continues till August, he'll (hopefully) not have to cope with a broken ankle but he is still collecting infections. Steve is barely increasing his average riding speed and still losing hours during each day's ride. At best (assuming more intensive support and less wasted time each day), his daily average from now till the finish would top out around 210 miles (assuming he doesn't break) and he would beat his 2015 tally but not Tommy or Kurt. That would get him to 3rd or 4th. Continuing this attempt is not a no-cost option (costs are not just monetary) and, appearances to the contrary, Steve is not a machine.

Idai said that the team will review Steve's performance at the end of January. That is at least a month later than they should have done it, but better than nothing. They should compare Steve's performance against the 220 daily miles needed from now till August but are now targeting averaging 205 daily miles sometime in March. That schedule inevitably requires Steve to average around 235 daily miles for 3 months (thanks to jsabine for juggling the numbers). That daily average distance simply is not viable, given Steve's current condition and potential rate of improvement.

Starting again, having recovered properly, regained his cruising speed and optimised his strategy and support based on what was learnt from 2015, I reckon Steve could average up to 220 daily miles over the year. That sort of performance would result in a formidable total. He may fail but he would have a realistic chance of getting the record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 05 January, 2016, 07:43:45 am
I think the review has been done. The on-line CTC article by Idai clearly states that Steve is continuing, using the same approach and will now be riding 205 miles a day until the better weather. It states that his aim is to break Kurt's record.

On FB 'Steve' congratulated Kurt and in the next sentence said he would break the new record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andrew531 on 05 January, 2016, 07:53:38 am
Steve's speed will have to increase
If on average he can spend 14 hours a day in the saddle at 15mph average 210 miles a day
16mph 14 hours = 224
17 mph for 14 hours = 238
18 mph for 14 hours = 252
19 mph for 14 hours = 266
20 mph for 14 hours = 280

I have gone gone for 14 hours as an example riding time, not including stops etc.

Kurt has broken the record as he has ridden faster, had a shorter day in the saddle with support. 

I'd really like to see Steve break the record but we'll have to see what happens
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 05 January, 2016, 08:18:33 am
If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.

I agree. Your snide comments are squarely aimed at other posters on this thread Matt.

I know you and you're a decent bloke, but you do come across as a bit of a knob on here sometimes which I think is unintentional but it is a real pity.

I think this thread would be better if we could accept that there are lots of different views (acturally there are probably only two views!) and allow people to air them here without any snideyness. Then again it is the internet and we're all grown-ups and we should have better things to do :)

That is all.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: T42 on 05 January, 2016, 08:40:47 am
Steve and his team are now grinding along exactly the same path that ended a few days ago with Steve on the podium for year distance (at the time). In a few days time, he'll be pushed into 4th by Kurt. Granted, if Steve continues till August, he'll (hopefully) not have to cope with a broken ankle but he is still collecting infections. Steve is barely increasing his average riding speed and still losing hours during each day's ride. At best (assuming more intensive support and less wasted time each day), his daily average from now till the finish would top out around 210 miles (assuming he doesn't break) and he would beat his 2015 tally but not Tommy or Kurt. That would get him to 3rd or 4th. Continuing this attempt is not a no-cost option (costs are not just monetary) and, appearances to the contrary, Steve is not a machine.

The worry is that he's riding in a purely maritime climate: he can't move away to where there might be less wind or rain.  It's not that cold but it's not warm so he has to ride in winter kit all the time.  In winter I'm 3-4 kph slower than in summer and knackered in half the time: OK, I'm decrepit but Steve must feel similar effects on top of the cumulative strain.  A few weeks in a warm dry climate would probably work wonders, but that's probably impossible.  It would put him beyond reach of his YACF helpers.  All in all, he's on a much tougher option than Kurt.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 05 January, 2016, 08:45:39 am
First suggestions of a cold spell coming in today's forecast. Interesting to contrast that with the scene when Kurt and Alicia broke the tape at the new record; everyone in shorts, t-shirts - under warm, blue skies  :-\.

Still - might be drier and less windy too, which will be a relief for Steve, I'm sure.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 05 January, 2016, 08:51:54 am


On FB 'Steve' congratulated Kurt and in the next sentence said he would break the new record.

Or, more accurately, someone posting to Steve's Facebook left a message

Quote
Well done Kurt and Alicia Searvogel.
Enjoy your last few days as the new World Record holder

With the headshot from Steve's Christmas message. I suspect Steve himself might have phrased it differently and used a current selfie, but that's just a guess.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 05 January, 2016, 08:56:34 am
Hoppo replied using Steves account saying he meant the last few days riding, not that it will only last 3 days

I noticed Hoppo said he would do the HAMR when he retires on his FB page (which I've now unfollowed, the guy doesn't come across well online, imo)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 05 January, 2016, 09:07:27 am
That suggests a bit of a conflict of interest doesn't it at the moment?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 05 January, 2016, 09:37:34 am
I tried to condense what I thought about the attempt when he first started.

Quote
I first encountered Steve Abraham on the North Roads 24 time trial towards the end of the last century. That was the 100th running of that event, and it ran true to the course of such a ride. We all went round and round on various public roads for a whole day each, until it was your time to finish. They added up everyone’s distance and declared some winners. First was Ian Butcher, 501 miles, he and the third place rider had to be held up on the podium to receive their prizes. I’ve since seen much the same happen a number of times on the way to the record being raised to 542 miles in 2011 by Andy Wilkinson.

There were two regular 24 hour time trials in those days, and there was a prize for the longest distance ridden in both combined. Steve was usually a long way behind the winners, but he always rode both. Those events are a real family affair, with the same faces turn up riding and supporting. There’s an overlapping line that has handed the baton on from the decade before the establishment of the modern Olympics. It’s not a huge number of people, a couple of hundred active participants and helpers, but it’s a core group of support for Steve, they understand where he’s coming from, where he’s going to, and what stands in his way.

Another area of overlapping support is in Audax. That’s a form of non-competitive long distance cycling. It’s essentially a ladder, leading to ever greater feats of endurance on a bike. Its greatest single manifestation is Paris Brest Paris, a 1200km relic of the late 19th century love affair with the bicycle. Around 5,000 people ride, and Steve’s been doing that since 1995, so he’s a well established member of that community. Audax United Kingdom is one of the clubs Steve belongs to, the North Buckinghamshire Road Club is another formally constituted one, and then there’s Yet Another Cycling Forum, a loose internet coalition of cyclists with a leaning towards the longer side of the pastime.

The record that Steve is attempting is a long standing one from 1939. It was encouraged by Cycling magazine and the first record was established in 1911. The 1930s were something of a heyday for long distance rides and distance records, and were very much a British speciality, as road races were not allowed. Record holders were the stars of the sport, and were feted at prize givings at the Albert Hall, and their names entered in ’The Golden Book of Cycling’.

Steve’s record attempt strikes me as an extension of that heritage. In the meantime, a whole new series of cycling cultures have come to the fore, with road racing and leisure cycling hybridising to give birth to the sportive scene, triathlons introducing big numbers to endurance cycling and a new discipline of ‘adventure cycling’, which has elements from other ‘adventure sports’. Social media has had a role to play in the establishment of these newer types of cycling. There’s a difference in approach between time trialling, which chips seconds off the time taken to ride set distances, and ‘adventure cycling’ which seems to emphasise inspiration and aspiration and to border on ‘spirituality’.

I got around to thinking about these various ways of understanding what Steve is doing, by looking at ‘Adventure Sports’ websites. There’s usually a lot of detail about the how, and also about the why, which seems to be a component that can be best explained if you book the personality as an inspirational speaker. So I wondered how Tommy Godwin would have been an inspiration in his time. From 1939 Britain was in an arms production race with Germany, and endless toil, devoted to reaching targets, was going to dominate a lot of lives for the next five years. Tommy’s record can be seen as a combination of the physical capacities needed to carry out the work and the discipline of working in the munitions factories. It chimed with the films of George Formby and Gracie Fields, where the virtues of modesty and self-effacement don’t need to be sacrificed to achieve success. This may seem wholly nostalgic to many, but those values persist in cycling clubs around the country, it’s part and parcel of the working-class roots of the sport.

The current perception of ‘extreme sports’ doesn’t see the participant as a worker, but as a seeker after truth. People are transformed by doing extraordinary things in extraordinary places. That’s a lot easier to convey these days, as it’s now possible to record the spectacular feats in spectacular scenery fairly easily, and there are many media outlets to show the results. I can see the appeal of that ‘spiritual journey’ view, and I wonder how it might apply to Steve’s record attempt. But Steve’s not doing something obviously spectacular, there’s no summit to arrive at. He puts the hours in, at a pre-determined rate, and he arrives at his ultimate destination. In that sense he’s extremely ordinary, he’s doing what most people do, just a lot more of it, without any appreciable breaks. To me he’s the ‘Everyday Hero’. I always knew where he stood in terms of his capacity to undertake a job like this, he’s certainly bold enough, and he’s got the tenacity to see it through.

I find it inspiring that someone is upholding those sorts of values, and it makes me want to reassert that in myself.



What I didn't state at the time was that I wondered what the attempt would become if it continued when the record was out of reach. Steve's status as an underdog can be presented as in the tradition of Norman Wisdom or Frank Spencer. Wisdom made a career out of playing 'The Successful Failure', an extension of George Formby's screen persona.

Steve's on the road most of he time, so his image is what is projected by his team. I can't say I know him very well. Indeed I can't say I know anyone in Audax very well. Sharing the road gives you a sense of comradeship, and you feel that you know people better than any sensible analysis of how long you've spent in their company warrants. LWAB and HK seem to know Steve the best.

Norman Wisdom made his career playing 'The Gump' as he called the Pitkin character. His name gave rise to a rare thing, an EU parliament joke, when 'Ca que nous avons besoin de, est La sagesse Normande', was translated as 'What we need now is Norman Wisdom'. 'La sagesse Normande' is French for 'Common Sense'. http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/fun/
But common sense is different for the different constituencies following Steve. One man's plucky underdog is another man's Norman Wisdom, and plenty of people liked Norman Wisdom.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 05 January, 2016, 10:07:40 am
IMO, Steve Abram has not been ‘the underdog’ at any point of this venture. He is one of this country’s ( UK ) most capable cyclists for the task, and by no way inferior to Kurt. He started on equal footing to the other two riders.
His starting three months saw a deficit of approx. 1000 miles, or five day’s worth of efforts during the British winter.
Then the moped incident.
Steve’s progress in the two – three weeks prior to the moped incident showed a consistency of riding and I for one, was confident Steve would claw back the 1000 miles in the second quarter of the year, leaving six months to improve a positive trace above the ‘Godwin line’ on Jo’s chart. That plan was sound.

A drunken moped rider scuppered Steve’s 2015 HAMR attempt. Not any mis-guidance by his team. Since surgery on his ankle, Steve has suffered some illnesses, or digestion problems.
He is no less a cyclist in my view than he was on 1st January 2015.
Those are my current thoughts.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 05 January, 2016, 10:14:52 am
I don't think anyone has questioned Steve's abilities - just that, for the current record attempt, he's not riding fast enough or far enough.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 05 January, 2016, 10:17:46 am
If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.

I agree. Your snide comments are squarely aimed at other posters on this thread Matt.
That implies a much less targeted approach than the reality. Just IMO of course ...

Quote
I think this thread would be better if we could accept that there are lots of different views (acturally there are probably only two views!) and allow people to air them here without any snideyness
This is not an original idea! Good luck with it though.


Quote
I know you and you're a decent bloke, but you do come across as a bit of a knob on here sometimes
Thanks, I'll take that - I'm sure worse things will be said to me in 2016 :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 05 January, 2016, 10:22:32 am
Those looking at Steve's actual performance are one constituency. The best placed of those are LWAB and HK, who directly helped Steve to his best 24 Hour performance. Others in the 24 hour world will look round and speculate who is best placed for another attempt.

Hoppo stands out, a 24 hour PB of 480 as opposed to Steve's 450, a record of riding in events in the USA, and a year as Steve's crew boss. Other likely candidates have careers which wouldn't allow a year off. The 24 hour community would most like Wilko or Gethin to give it a go, if anyone has to. Hoppo has an element of 'showboating' that goes down best in the USA.

An interesting element is that long distance cycling is very bad for the hands, and Hoppo is a music teacher who needs manual dexterity. Steve and Kurt's experience will show if a sustained tri-bar position or a recumbent lessens the damage. Chris 'quit cycling' in 2005.
Quote
Hopkinson made history earlier this summer by becoming the first solo Briton to complete the 3,000-mile non-stop Race Across America.

He said he was "over the moon" at securing the 12 hour title, but added: "I'm retiring from racing. I've done too much. So far this year altogether I've ridden just under 25,500 miles, which is ridiculous.

"I'm suffering with nerve damage to my hands after the RAAM – I can't feel my thumb on my right hand.



Read more: http://www.matlockmercury.co.uk/sport/local-sport/chris-quits-at-the-top-1-860252#ixzz3wMhNHvXC

He gave a brief rundown of his cycling career in an interview with Idai in 2014.
http://elliptigo.co.uk/testimonials/chrish
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 05 January, 2016, 11:32:02 am
Are you suggesting Hoppo is deliberately undermining Steve's attempt in order to further his own future chances of taking the record? That's a pretty serious allegation and not one to be bandied about lightly. If you are not, what is the point in hinting at conflicts of interest?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 05 January, 2016, 11:38:07 am
Highlighting a conflict of interest does not imply any accusation. 
For all we know, it may have been discussed between Steve and Hoppo. They may both be happy with it. But, that it represents a conflict, is a statement of fact.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 05 January, 2016, 11:45:18 am
Hanlon's Razor probably should be applied here.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 05 January, 2016, 11:50:18 am
What a shame that Steve's efforts are being overshadowed by hints of conflicts between current team members and ex-team members.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 05 January, 2016, 12:09:43 pm
What a shame that Steve's efforts are being overshadowed by hints of conflicts between current team members and ex-team members.

I don't think they are

I don't think anything waffled online can overshadow the effort of Steve or Kurt.

I still think he could do better with a change of approach though
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 05 January, 2016, 12:15:48 pm
The best approach would be to hire Team Searvogel for the next six+ months.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 05 January, 2016, 12:25:47 pm
No conflict of interest there.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 05 January, 2016, 12:27:08 pm
Hanlon's Razor probably should be applied here.

I agree, which is why there seems to be little benefit in raising it here and labelling it as "serious".
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 05 January, 2016, 12:35:37 pm
Hanlon's Razor probably should be applied here.

I agree, which is why there seems to be little benefit in raising it here and labelling it as "serious".

Safer to carry on shaving with a razor than an axe of course.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 05 January, 2016, 12:48:03 pm
I thought it might get a bit like the day after a General Election where all the losers throw in the towel....
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 05 January, 2016, 01:23:18 pm
In the early days of the challenge, we used to predict how many miles Steve would do that month. 

I'm going to forecast that Steve will do 5,900 miles over the 31 days of January 2016.

And that Steve will continue into February, with an indication that he'll review the situation at the end of the month.  I'll also go out on a limb and predict that some forum members will criticise him (or more strictly speaking "the team") for this.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 05 January, 2016, 01:52:25 pm
Steve will continue insisting that he is on track to break the record, as will his team. Which is bollocks, of course.

They are just putting off having to consider stopping and restarting or alternatively going back to real life.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 05 January, 2016, 02:01:52 pm
I thought it might get a bit like the day after a General Election where all the losers throw in the towel....

or sack their leader.

Do football teams walk off the field conceding defeat when the opposition score the first goal?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 05 January, 2016, 02:05:54 pm
Do football teams walk off the field conceding defeat when the opposition score the first goal?

It's the brave valiant football team that continues pushing hard and not giving up despite being 10-1 down with only 5 minutes to go.

They still lose the game though.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: IJL on 05 January, 2016, 02:25:14 pm
Quote
Steve will continue insisting that he is on track to break the record, as will his team. Which is bollocks, of course

He is still ahead of of Godwins milage at this point, a fact that seems to be mostly ignored. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 05 January, 2016, 02:29:46 pm
Quote
Steve will continue insisting that he is on track to break the record, as will his team. Which is bollocks, of course

He is still ahead of of Godwins milage at this point, a fact that seems to be mostly ignored.

While that's true, Godwin's long days in the summer were aided by the support and pacing teams that he and Bennet (or their sponsors) later agreed to give up - at which point the mileage fell off again.

I for one am not convinced (though I'd love to be) that Steve can match these. Kurt, with an apparently higher base speed than Steve, didn't.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 05 January, 2016, 02:56:06 pm
Comparing Steve's miles to Godwins at this point in the 365 days of the year is a red herring.

jsabine is quiet correct about the summer distances.

Tommy riding less over the winter wasn't choice it was weather driven.  I don't think you would opt to ride the year this way.

I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 05 January, 2016, 03:05:37 pm
I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.

And I disagree. Cos he's based in Milton Keynes for the winter and the summer.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 05 January, 2016, 03:20:57 pm
Steve has not shown the resilience to consistently collect 220+ mile days, for reasons that have been done to death. With a required average daily distance around 210 miles, that means he pretty much has to hit that number every day. Now his required average is virtually 220 miles...

Check out some of the long days that Tommy managed through his second winter, which was much milder than his first. Steve has had a fairly mild first winter and an exceptionally warm winter so far, but hasn't been able to take advantage of that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 05 January, 2016, 03:21:36 pm
Without going back to find the quotes  - I seem to recall a few posts which mentioned there would likely be a 5 figure sum left in the bank in August if current spending continued and there was no more donations.   If that is incorrect then disregard this...

It seems to me that if he has any chance of breaking this record then that resource should be used?

Is a trip abroad out of the question?  Quicker time trial bike, rent of private land for laps?   Rent of vehicle which he could sleep in and pay a driver?  Sports massage daily, meals delivered on route?

If this is it - then go for it.  He is ahead of Tommy still ....with money spent and changes made he could stay there?

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 05 January, 2016, 03:35:38 pm

I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.

And I disagree. Cos he's based in Milton Keynes for the winter and the summer.

Where Steve is based is irrelevant.  You have to do the miles. If you haven't got the speed for big summer miles / shorter winter miles you have to do daily average distance each and every day. If you can't do either of those scenarios then it equals no record.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 05 January, 2016, 03:42:42 pm
I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.

And that's more or less the way Kurt has done it.

Sure, there's room for a bit of fluctuation, but if you look at Jo's visualisation, and scale it so you can see the whole year, Kurt's curve is reasonably flat - and his short days really stand out.

That chart brings together three sets of data on how to ride your bike for a year. Two show different ways of reaching 75k miles: Kurt's is reasonably even, while Godwin's starts slow, curves down, and then is brought back up by incredibly long days before flattening again for the last four or five months.

Steve's whole year chart doesn't really offer lessons, beyond an illustration of the rapid decline caused by his time off the bike and then the way 100 mile days don't really stem the deficit. But it's instructive (IMO) to look at the way his current mileages, substantial though they are, are causing his progress to drop down from the Godwin line.

Sure, he's still higher than Godwin's actual ride, 5 months in, and he's now at the point where Godwin was really ramping up the distances. If he can match those increases, he's 2k (ish) to the good. But 5 months into Godwin's ride was the start of June, not early January, and his on-road support was rather different.

If Steve is to hit 76k, he needs to be averaging 220mpd. From an arithmetic point of view, he could start doing 220mpd now, and keep it up till August - but that doesn't look likely. Based on Idai's comments in the CTC interview, he could rise evenly from now to achieving 205mpd throughout March, then step up to 220mpd for April, then step up again to 235mpd for May-August.

Arithmetically, that's possible (and you could juggle it to include 250 or 270 mile days too, if you wanted to demonstrate that the maths would let him continue doing 'mere' Godwins for longer) - but physiologically? Psychologically? I don't know.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: postie on 05 January, 2016, 03:51:28 pm
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!!  Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will.  I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!!  Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: aoxomoxoa on 05 January, 2016, 03:56:03 pm
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!!  Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will.  I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!!  Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.

What a silly post. No-one is criticising Steve or stabbing him in the back. Just pointing out the immensity of the task and hypothesising that he's almost certainly not going to achieve it. The only thing being criticised is his strategy.  Ok and the team too.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 05 January, 2016, 04:00:26 pm
Check out some of the long days that Tommy managed through his second winter, which was much milder than his first. Steve has had a fairly mild first winter and an exceptionally warm winter so far, but hasn't been able to take advantage of that.

Erm. Nope, Tommy's second winter was just as bad as the first. He tells us so in his mileage diary for 1940 which has a number of scribbled notes to that effect. It did not let up until end of March.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 05 January, 2016, 04:05:17 pm

I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.

And I disagree. Cos he's based in Milton Keynes for the winter and the summer.

Where Steve is based is irrelevant.  You have to do the miles. If you haven't got the speed for big summer miles / shorter winter miles you have to do daily average distance each and every day. If you can't do either of those scenarios then it equals no record.

It's not a choice between consistent miles all year or Godwin-esque big summer miles / shorter winter miles. There's plenty of room in the middle depending on how much more you think you can do in the warmer nicer spring/summer.

Tommy's graph on jo's visualisation looks like a sine wave, it's all about how tall you want to make that sine wave (the amplitude).

Tommy's monthly averages were (roughly): 154, 158, 178, 189, 211, 255, 276, 237, 222, 207, 200, 174 which has huge variation and some weeks where Tommy averaged over 300 miles a day.

So taking a requirement of 210 mpd average then a plan that starts of with months of:-

195, 200, 205

requires the following months to balance them out to average 210mpd: 215, 220, 225

then reverse those 6 months for the other half of the year to get:-

195, 200, 205, 215, 220, 225, 225, 220, 215, 205, 200, 195

Flatter sine wave and far easier than trying to emulate the huge summer miles of Tommy.

[EDIT] For reference, Steve's first attempt had monthly averages of: 185, 191, 205 (not including the day of the moped) which, given that he didn't start in great form and was aiming to beat a record that was only 205mpd, was looking in reasonable shape.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 05 January, 2016, 04:09:15 pm
Check out some of the long days that Tommy managed through his second winter, which was much milder than his first. Steve has had a fairly mild first winter and an exceptionally warm winter so far, but hasn't been able to take advantage of that.

Erm. Nope, Tommy's second winter was just as bad as the first. He tells us so in his mileage diary for 1940 which has a number of scribbled notes to that effect. It did not let up until end of March.

Plus, as LWaB himself pointed out upthread(?) post-September '39 he was subject to the blackout restrictions.  Lights of that era were shit enough even before taking precautions against the
Luftwaffe dropping a Big Fritz in your saddlebag.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 05 January, 2016, 04:13:06 pm
Check out some of the long days that Tommy managed through his second winter, which was much milder than his first. Steve has had a fairly mild first winter and an exceptionally warm winter so far, but hasn't been able to take advantage of that.

Erm. Nope, Tommy's second winter was just as bad as the first. He tells us so in his mileage diary for 1940 which has a number of scribbled notes to that effect. It did not let up until end of March.

Plus, as LWaB himself pointed out upthread(?) post-September '39 he was subject to the blackout restrictions.  Lights of that era were shit enough even before taking precautions against the
Luftwaffe dropping a Big Fritz in your saddlebag.

Bugger, brain fade on my part. My copy of your book is about a 5 hour flight away.

Some of Tommy's second winter days are pretty long despite the conditions.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 05 January, 2016, 04:22:39 pm
I'm going to publish the 1940 mileages soon, it is a massive job verifying them all as, let's just say that whilst Tommy could ride a bike, his arithmetic was lacking. It took me eons to verify the 1939 ones against official records and correct mistakes he'd made. He started with 79 on the clock and clearly had a few subtraction issues when adding them in post ride. Remember though that he was canny, his contract with Raleigh paid out the most if if finished almost on the nail of 500 days, as he had a daily wage and 500 day bonus. There were a few 240/240 days in there but I think he rode to the clock during this period rather than aiming to get the 100k done as quickly as possible.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 05 January, 2016, 04:32:07 pm


I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.

And I disagree. Cos he's based in Milton Keynes for the winter and the summer.

Where Steve is based is irrelevant.  You have to do the miles. If you haven't got the speed for big summer miles / shorter winter miles you have to do daily average distance each and every day. If you can't do either of those scenarios then it equals no record.

It's not a choice between consistent miles all year or Godwin-esque big summer miles / shorter winter miles. There's plenty of room in the middle depending on how much more you think you can do in the warmer nicer spring/summer.

Tommy's graph on jo's visualisation looks like a sine wave, it's all about how tall you want to make that sine wave (the amplitude).

Tommy's monthly averages were (roughly): 154, 158, 178, 189, 211, 255, 276, 237, 222, 207, 200, 174 which has huge variation and some weeks where Tommy averaged over 300 miles a day.

So taking a requirement of 210 mpd average then a plan that starts of with months of:-

195, 200, 205

requires the following months to balance them out to average 210mpd: 215, 220, 225

then reverse those 6 months for the other half of the year to get:-

195, 200, 205, 215, 220, 225, 225, 220, 215, 205, 200, 195

Flatter sine wave and far easier than trying to emulate the huge summer miles of Tommy.

[EDIT] For reference, Steve's first attempt had monthly averages of: 185, 191, 205 (not including the day of the moped) which, given that he didn't start in great form and was aiming to beat a record that was only 205mpd, was looking in reasonable shape.

I'm perfectly aware of this.  If you take a look at my year on year miles if I didn't understand and use the sine wave I wouldn't be so close to 300,000 miles with a yearly average of 14,800 miles since 1999 or ridden 19,007 miles around a full time job in 2015.

However, if your variation in speed is quiet limited, which Steve's appears to be then your sine wave is going to be pretty flat. Hence the simplified statement of keep riding round about 205 (probably 210) miles per day plus or minus a bit.  This is precisely what Kurt has done and he's quicker than Steve.

Steve's plan is for the Tommy sine wave. So he has to have speed and replication to achieve this. Evidence?

Theory is all well and good but you have to be able to put it into practice.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 05 January, 2016, 04:38:52 pm
Do football teams walk off the field conceding defeat when the opposition score the first goal?

It's the brave valiant football team that continues pushing hard and not giving up despite being 10-1 down with only 5 minutes to go.

They still lose the game though.

José Mourinho would, of course, blame this entirely on the referee.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 05 January, 2016, 04:50:35 pm
Citizenfish, how likely do you think it is that Tommy spent the summer months crystal-cranking 18" from the back of a 20mph lorry on the A1?  Having seen the toll that consistent high mileage has taken on Steve, and assuming that if Kurt was finding it easy to knock out an average of 210mpd he'd have done more, it seems difficult to believe that from 17/7/39 onwards Tommy managed 5 straight days of 300m+ rides and that his midsummer 361m was followed by more than a month of Godwin+ rides, many nearer 300m than 200m.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 05 January, 2016, 05:02:29 pm
I'm perfectly aware of this.  If you take a look at my year on year miles if I didn't understand and use the sine wave I wouldn't be so close to 300,000 miles with a yearly average of 14,800 miles since 1999 or ridden 19,007 miles around a full time job in 2015.

However, if your variation in speed is quiet limited, which Steve's appears to be then your sine wave is going to be pretty flat. Hence the simplified statement of keep riding round about 205 (probably 210) miles per day plus or minus a bit.  This is precisely what Kurt has done and he's quicker than Steve.

Steve's plan is for the Tommy sine wave. So he has to have speed and replication to achieve this. Evidence?

Theory is all well and good but you have to be able to put it into practice.

Steve's plan was to ride for longer in the summer months both by being out longer, but also requiring fewer/shorter stops in the summer months.

Instead of 14 hour days with 11.5 hours riding time he would build to 16 hour days with 14.5 hours riding time. Even at his current average speed that's close to the upper limit of that plan that peaks at 225 miles/day. It requires much better planning and optimising his rides (and time off the bike) otherwise his sleep will suffer, but that's going to be easier than magically pulling an extra few mph from nowhere. I also remember reading that the recent diet change is also to move from 4 big feeds a day to 3. If that middle feed is the only big feed during a ride (along with eating whilst riding) then that'll really help.

His big summer miles plan was predicated on also getting much faster which, when coupled with the longer riding days, gave some seriously big miles. There's obviously little chance of the fast speeds now, but his average speed has crept up slightly recently enough that if he can push the days longer as the light/temperature/etc improves then he has a chance.

So, he has a chance of this without needing to get considerably faster, although it that does start to happen then it's an unexpected bonus that can only help.

In short I disagree with the idea that the only hope he has is to increase his average speed significantly (by more than 1mph, some say 2mph+), but any increase will make it significantly less onerous.

If there was any evidence for being able to do any of this then he wouldn't be in quite this mess. As I said before, I doubt Steve had ever managed 5000 miles in a month before starting this challenge, but he still managed to do that for the first 3 months of the challenge until hit by a moped. If he's going to succeed he's going to be doing stuff he's never done before.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 05 January, 2016, 05:16:18 pm
Greenbank,

If you want to believe in fairies and woodland folk and their magic in the context of this record, fine go ahead.

However, my palmares both racing and randonneuring bear out that I do have the experience and results to back up what I'm saying.

Your waffle about diet doesn't stand up to what happens in real cycling world it you want to go fast and far.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 05 January, 2016, 05:20:22 pm
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!!  Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will.  I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!!  Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.

What a silly post. No-one is criticising Steve or stabbing him in the back. Just pointing out the immensity of the task and hypothesising that he's almost certainly not going to achieve it. The only thing being criticised is his strategy.  Ok and the team too.

Pretty key parts of the equation! So in fact you are only criticising the things that he has control of.

Hmmm ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 05 January, 2016, 05:25:28 pm
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!!  Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will.  I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!!  Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.

What a silly post. No-one is criticising Steve or stabbing him in the back. Just pointing out the immensity of the task and hypothesising that he's almost certainly not going to achieve it. The only thing being criticised is his strategy.  Ok and the team too.

Actually, I think that you are criticising Steve, his strategy and his team.   

I completely agree with Postie's sentiments and am amazed at the level of un-niceness and bitterness towards Steve in this thread.   There is far too much in this thread with fails the forum rule about being nice to each other.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 05 January, 2016, 05:36:01 pm
Instead of 14 hour days with 11.5 hours riding time he would build to 16 hour days with 14.5 hours riding time. Even at his current average speed that's close to the upper limit of that plan that peaks at 225 miles/day.

225 miles in 14.5 hours riding needs an average of 15.5mph.
235 miles in the same time would need an average of 16.2mph.

If Steve's sine wave is to top out at 225mpd, he needs to be doing this pretty much from the beginning of March.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 05 January, 2016, 05:37:19 pm
Greenbank,

If you want to believe in fairies and woodland folk and their magic in the context of this record, fine go ahead.

However, my palmares both racing and randonneuring bear out that I do have the experience and results to back up what I'm saying.

Your waffle about diet doesn't stand up to what happens in real cycling world it you want to go fast and far.

Right, so you ignore my main point about how he can go further by stopping/faffing less and riding more of time he's already awake (easier as the days get longer and the weather warms up) and not by riding significantly faster, then pick on one small thing that Idai said about how the new diet will change how many big feeds he will need a day (which is incidental really, but just an example of how he can spend more of his waking time riding) and then imply I'm not qualified or experienced enough to comment on the subject.

Classy.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 05 January, 2016, 05:43:01 pm
Instead of 14 hour days with 11.5 hours riding time he would build to 16 hour days with 14.5 hours riding time. Even at his current average speed that's close to the upper limit of that plan that peaks at 225 miles/day.

225 miles in 14.5 hours riding needs an average of 15.5mph.
235 miles in the same time would need an average of 16.2mph.

If Steve's sine wave is to top out at 225mpd, he needs to be doing this pretty much from the beginning of March.

Yup. Steve's Interquartile Mean average speed (see the Statistics sheet of this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e6hVMqFKwaIvcj-Mx8GNRs1UZl5QiYmbg4LZjMMLYwg/edit#gid=769116057) for the second attempt is 14.93mph, this also includes the time he was ill and also the time he was adapting to his new diet. jo's recent average speed graph (it's somewhere, can't remember where) shows a general upward trend in the last few months too. It's not out of the question to get this to 15.5mph by March. It's then a question of being able to regularly put those 14.5 hours in each day and not accrue sleep debt, get ill, have an off day, etc.

Of course, this could be the fairies or woodland folk talking.

Some would have you believe that he needs to be getting to 17mph or higher in order to have a chance, that'd be lovely but I disagree that it's strictly necessary.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LUCAS on 05 January, 2016, 05:50:54 pm
Which thread will get to 100,000 views first? 

Will it be the ‘Visualizing the OYTT’ started by Jo.  This is a steady thread, based on facts and figures, very little argument is encountered and everything is always clear and concise.  Sometimes a rather silly comment is raised but using numbers the issue is quickly dealt with by Jo. It is many people’s go to thread first thing in the morning.
Or will it be ‘Current thoughts on the record attempt?’ started by Jochta.  This is an erratic thread, based on personal thoughts and sometimes even fantasy.  Quite often, like a cycling peloton, this rolls along quietly, everybody is friendly but suddenly it kicks off for no apparent reason.   Emotions run high, minor arguments are plentiful and nobody clouds the issues with facts.  It appears to be the thread for people who are bored at work and bored at home.

About the only thing the above have in common is that everybody who posts or views these threads, wishes Steve Abraham the best, we just have different ways of showing it.

I enjoy both threads; please keep up the good work.
The race to 100k views will be gripping.
(To show my impartiality I will post this message on both threads)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: IJL on 05 January, 2016, 05:51:15 pm
Quote
Your waffle about diet doesn't stand up to what happens in real cycling world it you want to go fast and far.

But waffle is what internet forums thrive on, mainly because the facts are fairly straight forward, either Steve will increase his daily mileage and getting the record will remain a possibility or he will not manage to increase his miles and at some point it will be clear that the achieving the record is not possible.  Time will tell, even if its the first option it will remain on a knife edge untill the final days. 

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Martin on 05 January, 2016, 05:52:03 pm
I don't think anybody on here has been less than encouraging to Steve and mindful of his well being. There are 2 other large factors which might account for disappointment on this topic with the way that Steve's challenge has progressed (putting aside for now the moped and broken ankle which was of course the biggest factor)

1. Steve always intended to approach the challenge from an Audax ethos, a more sedate pace than Tommy or Kurt (witness the "tortoise and hare" interview the day before the 2015 challenge started) self supported, not riding round and round in circles, no support vehicles or motor transport to a favourable location before or during each day. That sort of thing.

For better or worse that approach has not enabled Steve to make headway into Tommy's daily average for the year, and by and large his team are not really addressing it (or else Steve does not want it) when it's causing Steve to fall further and further behind.

2. Steve is being supported by donors. I don't think many of us feel any moral desire to have got our money's worth in terms of credible attack on the record so far, the amounts are generally trivial. It's just that in some people's opinion the funds will not continue rolling in for ever (who knows, maybe they will?). Carrying on on that basis (maybe until the end of 2017) was not what the OYTT fund was set up for. Not only that but there may be a feeling from Steve that he's being sponsored to ride so ride he should depite his sporadic health issues?

edit; plus taking this challenge into a third year is unprecedented; with possible health risks

my 2p, and wishing Steve all the best to find the talent we know he is capable of in his continuing attempt  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 05 January, 2016, 06:07:21 pm
Citizenfish, how likely do you think it is that Tommy spent the summer months crystal-cranking 18" from the back of a 20mph lorry on the A1?  Having seen the toll that consistent high mileage has taken on Steve, and assuming that if Kurt was finding it easy to knock out an average of 210mpd he'd have done more, it seems difficult to believe that from 17/7/39 onwards Tommy managed 5 straight days of 300m+ rides and that his midsummer 361m was followed by more than a month of Godwin+ rides, many nearer 300m than 200m.

I don't believe it as I think I would have found reference to it. His coach Charley Davey was a tough wizened record breaker who had taken the 24hr record and many other nails events. He would have taken no nonsense from Godwin and the record shows he harried him on during his five months of active pacing. Godwin's 348 day was witnessed by Cycling magazine, no mention of lorries, and clear indication in his splits that he rode fast then recovered, repeat.

Neat theory, little evidence that he used it during the Davey months. However, afterwards when the pacing was stopped I suspect he would have welcomed any lorry tows available.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 05 January, 2016, 06:11:16 pm
CF:
I think there was a mention back inJan15 (remember then??) of Godwin getting just 2 hours sleep some nights in usmmer.

Can you confirm this? Any more detail??

TIA,
Matty
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 05 January, 2016, 06:15:36 pm
CF:
I think there was a mention back inJan15 (remember then??) of Godwin getting just 2 hours sleep some nights in usmmer.

Can you confirm this? Any more detail??

TIA,
Matty

A fair few references to 4 hours in various articles and also 21st July 1939. Up at 5am rode till midnight, 361 miles total. 308 miles day before, 235 miles day after.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 05 January, 2016, 06:23:41 pm
Are you suggesting Hoppo is deliberately undermining Steve's attempt in order to further his own future chances of taking the record? That's a pretty serious allegation and not one to be bandied about lightly. If you are not, what is the point in hinting at conflicts of interest?

I wouldn't be surprised if Hoppo gave the HAMR a go, he was instrumental in setting it up, he knows Kurt, and it would be a good way to go out. There's a peak of interest with the end of Kurt's successful ride. Kurt's new record strikes me as similar to the way that athletes shave tiny amounts off times to allow another record-breaking payday, so there's plenty of space for a reply. The hand issue might put Chris off though.

Bruce Berkeley won't be available to the UK media until later in the year, so there's a bit of a gap. I sympathise with  Hoppo, he must have felt that he'd be able to pace Steve as a way of training. That was tried early on, and it burnt Steve out. Steve's requirements for a pacer are the opposite of training, a constant low output, slow uphill, fast downhill, a heavy tandem couple are probably ideal.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: notlobgp14 on 05 January, 2016, 07:01:56 pm
" a constant low output, slow uphill, fast downhill, a heavy tandem couple are probably ideal."

Now we are talking.  Tandem Club to the rescue.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 05 January, 2016, 07:16:46 pm
I asked Steve why he didn't like taking pace at 3.30 in this interview, his answer made me think of tandems at the time. It may just be a concentration issue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIMA9Zux9gE
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 05 January, 2016, 08:01:42 pm
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!!  Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will.  I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!!  Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.



NOT a silly post in the least.  As Postie rightly says Steve will ride on.  If he were not to quite grab the record he would at least learn what he can maintain week in and week out during spring /summer.  This would pay devidends should a later attempt be required.  However we all hope as the warmer weather arrives his daily distances will increase and hopefully his speed.  Well posted Postie and keep going Steve. Steve please shine and impress us all and indeed yourself.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 05 January, 2016, 08:05:04 pm
Quote
However we all hope as the warmer weather arrives

winters not even started yet
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Somnolent on 05 January, 2016, 08:29:44 pm
I completely agree with Postie's sentiments and am amazed at the level of un-niceness and bitterness towards Steve in this thread.   There is far too much in this thread with fails the forum rule about being nice to each other.

I agree.
Whether those who spout a lot of self-serving ire intend it to be directed towards Steve, his team, or just those who disagree with them in general is not relevant. 
We all know that the arithmetic is balanced on a knife edge, endlessly repeating the same arguments with slightly different numbers each week just makes YACF a less and less pleasant place to visit.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MacB on 05 January, 2016, 08:38:08 pm
I asked Steve why he didn't like taking pace at 3.30 in this interview, his answer made me think of tandems at the time. It may just be a concentration issue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIMA9Zux9gE

interesting stuff, especially when he starts talking about caravans/vans and also how his 'team' have their own things to do as well. Almost as if ideas of a support vehicle and a dedicated support person(Alicia) are out of the blue.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 05 January, 2016, 09:41:03 pm
We were using a van that Julian Dyson had bought to transport various tandems to PBP. Steve was being supported with a caravan. We saw him on the last night heading to it, when we were staying in Senonches. Having that support on PBP was a novelty. We'd planned to film, and Heather wanted that as a defined goal, she was driving the van, and Dave and I were on a motorbike.
We were approached to provide support for Steve on PBP, and there would have been money for that, but we had our own things to do, as I make clear. I was asked if I'd be interested in making a film early on, which is one reason that I wrote that piece about how I saw the record attempt. I made it clear that I'd be happy to film him if he came up North, and whenever our paths crossed. He stayed largely in the South and East, and I filmed Steve whenever our paths crossed.
I focused on preparing for the PBP myself, it wasn't clear if I'd ride it myself or not.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 05 January, 2016, 10:11:45 pm


winters not even started yet
[/quote]



Correct
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 05 January, 2016, 10:17:47 pm
We all know that the arithmetic is balanced on a knife edge, endlessly repeating the same arguments with slightly different numbers each week just makes YACF a less and less pleasant place to visit.

So why do people repeatedly visit the thread then? Only to post their antipathy towards some of the views expressed here? Well, why the hell shouldn't they I suppose is the answer to that.

A group worth it's grain of salt should be able to hold all views. I really don't see much that is wrong with this thread - [other than the posts I don't like of course - and there are many!]. Is it really that bad? Personally I don't think so. For the most part it's engaging. Surely the forum can handle views that might clash every now and then?

It's the internet, and the thread is called, 'Current thoughts about the record attempt' - it's an invitation to empty your stuff into a virtual letter box. The clue is in the title. Looks like many have taken up the invitation too.

What I find equally bizarre is those that don't like what they read but constantly return only to be continually agitated by what other people have posted to the point of saying it's a negative thread. Like, what are you doing? On the one hand some people don't like what they read, but then return again and again. Why read it, if it's that negative to you? Do you really think Steve cares that much? Do you really think he cares about Kurt's recumbent like some people do here? Does he really care about mileage estimates going on? Does he really care about the weather in Florida as opposed to the dark skies over a an already drenched MG? I doubt it somehow.

Right now, he hasn't got a lot of time to care about any of this anyway.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: contango on 05 January, 2016, 11:10:23 pm
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!!  Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will.  I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!!  Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.

I've read this thread periodically over the last year, keeping a fairly loose eye on what Steve and Kurt have been doing. It's truly mindboggling to think of Steve "only" doing 160 miles a day for however many days it was. Truly both Steve and Kurt have done something amazing, whatever the final figures turn out to be.

That said it's not stabbing anyone in the back to look at the basic metrics with a view to determining whether the stated goal is still achievable. That's basic planning, not backstabbing. So if the aim is to take the one-year record it's perfectly reasonable to say, as some have done here, that he needs to ride X miles in a day and then observe he's consistently been riding X-30 miles and therefore he needs to increase his daily mileage substantially. It's perfectly reasonable to say that if he needs to cover 200 miles in a day that means either 10 hours at 20mph average, or 13h20 at 15mph average, or 20 hours at 10mph average. That's mathematics, not backstabbing.

I'm not going to knock Steve because he is doing something that is so far beyond my physical abilities it's just not funny. That doesn't mean my only option is to stand at the sidelines shouting "Go Steve, Go Steve!!!" as if any voice questioning The Plan were inherently a bad thing.

Where beating the record is concerned it is a very simple binary success/failure outcome. If the record to beat were 75,000 miles and Steve finished his year at 74,999 then he failed to break the record. If he finished his year at 75,001 then he succeeded in setting a new record. It really is that simple. If he finished his year at 74,999 miles it doesn't make him a failure as a person - he's still riding more in a month than I ride in a year, and his achievement is still huge - but he did fail in his specific attempt.

I can't say I've looked at his numbers in enough detail to really take a view on whether he's likely to succeed or fail in his specific record attempt. It would be great to see a British athlete take a record like this one and hold it for a Very Long Time but that, like so much else, doesn't actually make any difference regarding whether any specific projection is likely to actually come to pass.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 05 January, 2016, 11:40:22 pm
One last reply to this as I hadn't touched on one important aspect...

Greenbank,

If you want to believe in fairies and woodland folk and their magic in the context of this record, fine go ahead.

However, my palmares both racing and randonneuring bear out that I do have the experience and results to back up what I'm saying.

Your waffle about diet doesn't stand up to what happens in real cycling world it you want to go fast and far.

By the way, hardly any of this plan is my work at all. It's pretty much all based on Steve's original plans but scaled back, diluted, taking the lower end of any ranges of riding times, chopping bits off, and using only a modest (~0.5mph) improvement on his existing average speed (which he seems to be trending towards) rather than his wild expectations of reaching 17mph in the summer.

The riding times per day came from: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-schedules-explained and the schedules themselves

Quote
The next thing I did was to think about how many hours I’d expect to spend riding, not including stops, on a typical day for whichever given month. For example, I thought that spending 12-14 hours would be about right for a typical January day, on a daily basis. Whereas in June, riding for 16-18 hours would be about right. I based the figures on my years of experience of all year round long distance cycling.

Quote
For the more ambitious schedule, I left the hours alone. Because of the weather, sleep and natural gains and losses in performance during the course of a cycling year, I considered the hours to be unmovable.

I just picked values at the lower end of his estimates, which he's been pretty much keeping track with since the illness/diet changes, and was also roughly maintaining in the first 3 months of the challenge before the moped.

And on spending less time stopped during the day from: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/preparation

Quote
As fitness, conditioning and weather improves, I expect to be able to ride for longer without stopping, so although there is a 4 hour difference of riding time on the schedule between summer and winter, I expect there to be more like an hour or two difference between a days ride as I’d spend more time stopped to take shelter and have a warm drink in the winter.

The diet changes (3 big feeds instead of 4 to save time) came from Steve's Facebook update on Christmas Day: https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015/photos/a.1523448711237093.1073741830.1520678421514122/1655061301409166/?type=3&theater

Quote
I could forsee spending as much time not moving as I did last winter. Once my new diet is in full flight I think I may be able to spend less time stopped in winter than I did last year, though this remains to be seen.

My new diet is well under way but not quite up to speed yet. I initially needed 4 big feeds a day and now only need 3.

Next step is to space out those feeds and I should also not need to eat as much for each feed, which will save even more time.

Now there are plenty of bits in his plan which have turned out to be fantasy (4.30am starts to avoid traffic, faster riding, etc), but if you have any problems with the provenance of the plan then I'd take it up with Steve. I believe you know Steve's palmares and experience/results in randonneuring and racing, but feel free to pick on me if that helps.

Whether or not it is achievable is the million dollar question and, again, pointing at history doesn't really prove anything, he's already exceeded anything he's ever done before. He didn't increase his speed significantly as he wanted/hoped/expected/planned, but with some adjustments it seems he might not have to.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Somnolent on 06 January, 2016, 12:18:02 am
We all know that the arithmetic is balanced on a knife edge, endlessly repeating the same arguments with slightly different numbers each week just makes YACF a less and less pleasant place to visit.

So why do people repeatedly visit the thread then? Only to post their antipathy towards some of the views expressed here? Well, why the hell shouldn't they I suppose is the answer to that.

A group worth it's grain of salt should be able to hold all views. I really don't see much that is wrong with this thread - [other than the posts I don't like of course - and there are many!]. Is it really that bad? Personally I don't think so. For the most part it's engaging. Surely the forum can handle views that might clash every now and then?

It's the internet, and the thread is called, 'Current thoughts about the record attempt' - it's an invitation to empty your stuff into a virtual letter box. The clue is in the title. Looks like many have taken up the invitation too.

What I find equally bizarre is those that don't like what they read but constantly return only to be continually agitated by what other people have posted to the point of saying it's a negative thread. Like, what are you doing? On the one hand some people don't like what they read, but then return again and again. Why read it, if it's that negative to you? Do you really think Steve cares that much? Do you really think he cares about Kurt's recumbent like some people do here? Does he really care about mileage estimates going on? Does he really care about the weather in Florida as opposed to the dark skies over a an already drenched MG? I doubt it somehow.

Right now, he hasn't got a lot of time to care about any of this anyway.

I certainly don't expect to agree with everything posted on this thread (or indeed anywhere else on the internet).... but in the face of a challenge of such magnitude what I find objectionable is the complete lack of humility from some posters who claim to have Steve's best interests at heart.   Not even an ironic IMHO, or a YMMV.
Instead we get (paraphrasing slightly) I ride three times as many miles in a year as you, therefore I know best, my arithmetic is better than your arithmetic, I'm right, you're wrong, Steve's doing it wrong.

Not nice. (IMO)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 06 January, 2016, 12:20:36 am
Greenback  - a good posting
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 06 January, 2016, 01:14:01 am
Truly both Steve and Kurt have done something amazing, whatever the final figures turn out to be.

This is something I can certainly agree with and add my awe to; Kurt exceeding (and still continuing to exceed) the Godwin record, and Steve riding into 4th place *despite a broken ankle* (and only (I think, given the context, 'only' is more than justified), *only* 1500 miles behind Bennett).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Feline on 06 January, 2016, 02:00:22 am
I've been supporting Steve since the start by direct debit, and any hosting etc. I can offer him. I have changed my direct debit to the new details. I will continue this until is over one way or the other (as stated by Steve and no-one else). Go Steve!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 06 January, 2016, 06:28:44 am
Question: the change of details re the donations for Steve. Does this give the team the wider access to the funds that FB was so concerned about and mentioned upthread?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 06 January, 2016, 07:46:03 am
I've no idea, but, in principle, it would seem sensible for others to be able to access the funds to spend on his behalf rather than Steve having to take time out to queue at the bank. 

If you don't feel you can trust the other team members, that's a different matter.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 06 January, 2016, 07:48:43 am
Some mornings, I look at Steve’s ‘Year at a glance’ progress curve and think “The silly sod’s not going to do this.” Some mornings I look at the curve and think “Steve has an undisclosed plan.”

For the last three mornings, it’s the latter.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 06 January, 2016, 07:54:39 am
Citizenfish, how likely do you think it is that Tommy spent the summer months crystal-cranking 18" from the back of a 20mph lorry on the A1?  Having seen the toll that consistent high mileage has taken on Steve, and assuming that if Kurt was finding it easy to knock out an average of 210mpd he'd have done more, it seems difficult to believe that from 17/7/39 onwards Tommy managed 5 straight days of 300m+ rides and that his midsummer 361m was followed by more than a month of Godwin+ rides, many nearer 300m than 200m.

I don't believe it as I think I would have found reference to it. His coach Charley Davey was a tough wizened record breaker who had taken the 24hr record and many other nails events. He would have taken no nonsense from Godwin and the record shows he harried him on during his five months of active pacing. Godwin's 348 day was witnessed by Cycling magazine, no mention of lorries, and clear indication in his splits that he rode fast then recovered, repeat.

Neat theory, little evidence that he used it during the Davey months. However, afterwards when the pacing was stopped I suspect he would have welcomed any lorry tows available.

Drafting lorries during long rides was commonplace for hardriders between the wars and afterwards, right up until the lorry speed limit was raised beyond comfortable riding pace. I doubt that, in the context of long-distance riding, catching a breather behind a lorry would have been considered noteworthy.

A 2 minute Google search leads to Jack Thurston interviewing Eileen Sheriden, a record-breaking contemporary of Tommy.
<In what sounds like a real life version of the famous scene in 1970s American bicycling teen flick Breaking Away, Eileen laughs as she recalls how she would draft lorries for miles on end on her training runs. “I must have been breathing all the black smoke coming out of the back but the drivers were helpful in those days. They seemed to know you were there.”>
https://rouleur.cc/journal/history/eileen-sheridan-interview-professional-cyclist-time-trial
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 06 January, 2016, 08:10:29 am
I think I have read every single piece of commentary and interview concerning Tommy, Bernard, Rene, Walter, Ossie etc... possible and I've never found reference to it as the underlying strategy by either the riders or the journalists. I've nothing to hide as I am fascinated by the whole affair. I'm sure it was part of a rider's day were the opportunity to arise but I am not convinced by the theory that it underpinned the big miles. If this was the case they would have continued at the same rate after the pacers retired. The other problem is milage cards, you forget that a signature was required at every major turn/location. Billie Fleming told me this in person, it wasn't just a case of getting a card signed when you felt like it.

Eileen's case is possibly different, equivalent to motorpaced training that many pros do today behind a moped to build speed. Sadly the people who really know are not here.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 06 January, 2016, 08:23:46 am
I'm not saying that drafting was actually part of the strategy but given that lorries formed a large percentage of the traffic at the time, Tommy's average riding speed for much of the time was close to 20mph and lorries were limited to 20mph, it would be almost impossible to avoid drafting them. I'd not be surprised if Tommy skipped down the road faster than 20mph during his 'hard hours' and rested up behind lorries at 20mph before repeating, particularly into headwinds.

It was the intensive support that allowed Tommy his big Summer miles - the change/ response is quite clear when intensive support was initiated and later removed.

The low overall traffic volumes meant that Tommy could happily sit on major A-roads (where lorries traveling long distances were fairly common), which would reduce the amount of major turns/ stops for signatures. That routing choice was surely part of the strategy.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LEE on 06 January, 2016, 09:02:47 am
My only real surprise about Steve's strategy is that he's using a Raleigh Sojourn for the attempt.

Maybe it's a deliberate attempt to "keep it real" but there are equally comfy and, crucially, quicker bikes out there.

My Carbon bike is measurably quicker than my steel bike and every 0.2mph increase buys you 1,000 "free" miles a year.

Marginal gains add up over 75,000 miles.  Is he using a Power Meter?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 06 January, 2016, 09:25:55 am
It's just one study ( http://www.bmj.com/cgi/doi/10.1136/bmj.c6801 ) but: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-11958903

Quote
For six months he tossed a coin each morning to decide which bike to use - and then timed the journey.

His study, published in the British Medical Journal, found that there was no measurable difference in commuting time over the 27 miles from Sheffield to his place of work and back.

The average journey time using his heavy, old bike was 1 hour 47 minutes and the average journey for the new, lighter new bike was 1 hour 48 minutes.

Steve's not using a power meter. He doesn't need one to ride within himself as he is doing and I don't think he wants to turn into Chris Froome staring at his stem the entire time, plus it's one more thing to go wrong if he was relying upon it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 06 January, 2016, 09:45:01 am
The six stages of a project.

1.   Enthusiasm
2.   Disillusionment
3.   Panic
4.   Search for a culprit
5.   Praise for the unworthy
6.   Punishment of the innocent.

You are now in Stage 4.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ham on 06 January, 2016, 09:46:03 am
Greenback  - a good posting

Did you mean he's on the money ?  :demon:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: danridesbikes on 06 January, 2016, 09:50:26 am
Quote
plus it's one more thing to go wrong if he was relying upon it.

or redundancy for the the HRM, which wrecked a few hours riding a couple of months ago

agreed though, most of the power meters on the market have some faff time, I've got a couple of Stages units, and had no end of trouble with a Powertap G3
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 06 January, 2016, 10:01:42 am
My father was a club cyclist in the late 1940s and a driver in the RAF in the 1950s. Drafting lorries was something they did as a way of getting to somewhere interesting from Preston, essentially straight up the A6. The 20mph limit was there to placate the railway lobby. Lorries were capable of going faster, and would have done in the build-up to war.
Later in the war lorries were sometimes strafed, so took to travelling in convoys at night.
It's quite an interesting subject, and a bit difficult to research on the internet. There are the occasional references in 'People's Histories', as in the long account here. http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ww2peopleswar/stories/53/a2304253.shtml
There must be others somewhere.

During PBP I interviewed a bloke who described himself as a 'bicycle historian', he liked my videos because they provided an insight into what people rode and wore on Audax events. He felt it was handy to have a reference source in the midst of an explosion of content.

Anyone writing a history of the current resurgence of interest in 'The Year' faces the same problem. Facebook and Strava provide snapshots, and are interesting in the context of the 'hate' post mentioned by Alicia elsewhere.
The posts on here provide the greatest concentration of considered thought about the attempt. It's unlikely that anyone will ever read through all the posts, any history will come from someone who has become part of the story as it has unfolded.

One interesting part to me has been the defence of Godwin's legacy. His methods are not well-documented, so the  'purity' debate can shift about. It became intensively discussed during the pre-moped phase, as Kurt stacked up the miles in Florida, while Steve rode through winter weather. It was an an echo of wartime, Kurt was 'Over-Supported, Over-Privileged and Over-There.

Where does the story go from here? Kurt and Steve both found that a couple of months took away their speed, what will happen to Bruce? I'd be interested to know what happened to Kurt and Steve's haemocrit levels during the progress of the event. That aspect is one compelling argument for Steve carrying on, we can see what effects there are.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 06 January, 2016, 10:02:59 am
Quote
plus it's one more thing to go wrong if he was relying upon it.

or redundancy for the the HRM, which wrecked a few hours riding a couple of months ago

He carries multiple Garmins so a spare HRM strap in the saddlebag is hardly a huge weight penalty (compared to the mini-laptop and various chargers he must be carrying for overnight stays).

Assuming Steve is good at judging his easy riding pace (he's had plenty of experience of it by now) then HR has the benefit of giving advance warning of illness (which generally shows up as a higher HR for same perceived effort), something you won't get using power alone.

Having HR or power data in the GPX log is a requirement for the HAMR record along with photos. Without HR or power you need to faff with the witness book which risks shorter mileage claims, more time stopped and completely rules out short loops such as the MK bowl.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Peter on 06 January, 2016, 10:33:04 am
My father was a club cyclist in the late 1940s and a driver in the RAF in the 1950s. Drafting lorries was something they did as a way of getting to somewhere interesting from Preston, essentially straight up the A6.

Damon, I thought for one glorious moment you were going to say he drafted himself!  Alas, not to be.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 06 January, 2016, 10:53:47 am
I'll have to interview my Dad and his mate Peter Ward about cycling in the 40s and 50s.
http://www.ribblevalleycrc.com/whats-on/rvcrc-events/260-peter-ward-80th-birthday

Peter was one of those who spent some of his RAF career riding a bike, and became the archetypal club rider.
I saw a former stalwart of the Ribble Valley CRC at the weekend, and asked him if he still helped promote road races. Apparently the problem is that lots of young riders are in trade teams, not clubs, so there's no incentive to put on races, and trade teams don't put on races.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 06 January, 2016, 12:31:11 pm
...
It's the internet, and the thread is called, 'Current thoughts about the record attempt' - it's an invitation to empty your stuff into a virtual letter box. The clue is in the title. Looks like many have taken up the invitation too.

What I find equally bizarre is those that don't like what they read but constantly return only to be continually agitated by what other people have posted to the point of saying it's a negative thread. Like, what are you doing? On the one hand some people don't like what they read, but then return again and again. Why read it, if it's that negative to you?
...
Well yes and no! I like your tolerant peace-loving approach, and I'm certainly one who could learn from it. But things aren't as simple as you describe.

This is a forum. We discuss stuff. I don't see the point of a "virtual letter box" where people just dump their thoughts, if no one is going to read them. And for me, just reading the stuff is pretty dull - what makes forums fun is the discussion.
And clearly I'm not alone in this - almost all posts here are fuelled by the sum of what we know about Steve's ride plus what others have already posted here.

There is some good stuff here. We've had some productive discussions, and folk post interesting and/or relevant history/anecdotes; so people come back. They won't stop just because Bob Wanker-Troll writes something offensive/wrong/off-topic. It seems only human nature to respond to the worst posts by BWT.


All IMHO of course :P
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 06 January, 2016, 12:40:49 pm
I really need to learn to stop clicking on the "show me the post" button.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 06 January, 2016, 12:46:47 pm
I really need to learn to stop clicking on the "show me the post" button.

It's like a Shakespeare play.;)

I already know who Cassius and Brutus are.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: JohnR on 06 January, 2016, 12:48:50 pm
I've read the study provided by GB with interest, I also have two bikes I use regularly one steel with flat bars and 40c tyres which weighs about 15 Kg and my Ribble Alu frame with 23c tryes on 700c wheels and weighs about 8.5 Kg.

I usually use my steel bike for winter training rides saving my lighter one for audaxes and longer rides. I have been keeping tally of my times around familiar routes on both bikes and have come to the conclusion that there is little difference between using either bike except the lighter bike is easier to go uphill (no surprise there) and also i can go downhill just as fast on both bikes. any inertia of the heavier bike is soon used up when going from downhill to uphill. I also am under the impression, whether right or wrong that the lighter bike would be less energy sapping on longer rides say 200Km or above because of the lighter weight (and more so I am in a more aerodynamic position on the hoods). If this were the case I may be able to hold a slightly higher average speed overall on the longer rides but not so noticable on shorter rides.

I remember last summer seeing two cycle tourists cycling up a longish hill fully laden with camping gear their faces red and puffing as they pedalled easy gears at highish cadences and slowly ground their way up the hill. This in contrast to the lighter biked cyclists zooming up the same hill on another occasion, so I would think the lighter bike would be more beneficial where there are more hills of various gradients and the cyclist would be able to cycle further at slightly higher average speeds on longer rides with less fatigue. My view only.

Edit:
Recently I built up some lighter wheels for the steel bike for when I do longer rides on it and also when the old ones go bust, the new wheels with tyres weigh 2.5Kg total compared with 4Kg total for the original ones making the new ones about 37% lighter.
I fitted the lighter wheels when I recently rode to Blackpool (about 55 Miles) into a headwind and up some reasonable hills. The lighter wheels certainly felt much easier to cycle up the hills than the same hills on the heavier wheels and I am sure I arrived less fatigued than I would have been if I had used the heavier wheels.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 06 January, 2016, 12:58:36 pm
It's a red herring. Aerodynamics are far more important than weight. 

The issue is not so much that Steve's bike and luggage are heavy but that his aerodynamics are not good. This is mainly because his position is very high. There may be reasons why he can't get a position more like Kurt or other long distance cyclists (eg back trouble), but i've never heard him say it. I suspect he just doesn't realise what a massive difference it would make.

All his luggage also creates additional drag. Furthermore, where he is carrying it is not good aerodynamically: it spoils the natural curve of his back.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: JohnR on 06 January, 2016, 01:04:27 pm
It's a red herring. Aerodynamics are far more important than weight.

Agreed, but if he is regularly riding up hills against gravity then surely a lighter bike plus payload would be more beneficial especially on longer journeys etc.?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 06 January, 2016, 01:05:16 pm
It's a red herring. Aerodynamics are far more important than weight. 

Weight might be important if he is accelerating, which I guess depends on the type of roads he is using (in particular, number of junctions and traffic lights).  Also whilst the routes are flat, they do have some inclines.

I've no idea the extent to which aerodynamics and weight are more important than the other, particularly at the speeds Steve typically achieves.  The relevant thing (for me at least) is that he has options to make things easier which he has decided not to implement, for probably sensible reasons (which we can all speculate on but will never know in all likelihood).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 06 January, 2016, 01:08:09 pm
...
This is a forum. We discuss stuff. I don't see the point of a "virtual letter box" where people just dump their thoughts, if no one is going to read them. And for me, just reading the stuff is pretty dull - what makes forums fun is the discussion.
...

I'm all for the actual discussions but the biggest problem with this place (forums or even the Internet in general, so it's not specific to yacf) is many people simply can't be arsed to read and digest the recent history of a thread before posting in it.

The leads to the same things being brought up again and again (despite them often being discussed thoroughly at some point before) and just causes frustration for the people that are reading, digesting, discussing, arguing, rebutting, etc. Maybe this is what makes it look like a virtual letter box. Novel ideas/thoughts are welcome, but many of the posts aren't novel or don't further a discussion.

Maybe splitting certain bits off into separate threads "Steve's choice of bike", "Transfers and tailwinds", etc would help those with short attention spans.

[EDIT] Mind you, we'd need to move the old (inactive for more than 7 days maybe) daily update threads to a new sub-sub-forum so that the other threads are visible on the first page.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 06 January, 2016, 01:09:45 pm
Yes, an interesting piece of information about vehicle dynamics is aerodynamics counts for more than weight on a flat road.

Once up to speed, the larger inertia ( momentum ) of a streamlined heavy bicycle is easier to keep moving than a non-streamlined light bicycle.
I can refer you to Chester Kyle.
Any study carried out comparing the average speed of bicycles of different weights should be done on the same bike, but putting a billet of lead down the seat-tube to add 10lb.
Then it might be seen that on a hilly course where the hills are curvy and the cyclist cannot achieve equilibrium velocity when descending, the heavier bike is on average, slower.
When the roads are straight and hills are gentle and the cyclist can descend at faster than equilibrium velocity, the heavier bike may prove to be advantageous.

To get a realistic figure, perform ‘roll down the hill’ tests with the bike in both states of mass, to establish kW vs velocity for each mass.
You may find the heavier bike’s kW vs V curve is lower than the lighter bike, because it has greater momentum.

Steve’s choice of a ‘not light’ bike fitted with aerobars is a wise choice IMO, because he’s planning to ride mainly flat, straight and smooth roads.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jackt on 06 January, 2016, 01:34:23 pm
I think I have read every single piece of commentary and interview concerning Tommy, Bernard, Rene, Walter, Ossie etc... possible and I've never found reference to it as the underlying strategy by either the riders or the journalists. I've nothing to hide as I am fascinated by the whole affair. I'm sure it was part of a rider's day were the opportunity to arise but I am not convinced by the theory that it underpinned the big miles. If this was the case they would have continued at the same rate after the pacers retired. The other problem is milage cards, you forget that a signature was required at every major turn/location. Billie Fleming told me this in person, it wasn't just a case of getting a card signed when you felt like it.

Eileen's case is possibly different, equivalent to motorpaced training that many pros do today behind a moped to build speed. Sadly the people who really know are not here.

Citizenfish, you're right about the motorpacing during training. It's also the case that there were pretty stringent rules about not accepting 'outside support' during Eileen's record breaking rides. She was allowed to have a following vehicle but she wasn't allowed to publicise her rides in advance, presumably to discourage members of the public from turning out on the road to support her, or worse, from pacing her. When I interviewed her she did make mention of kindly policemen getting wind of her imminent arrival in a town and holding up the traffic so she could ride through without stopping, but this was - I suspect - very much the exception. I should imagine that if she'd drafted a lorry for any length of time on one of her record attempts she'd have been running the risk of disqualification, though no doubt she'll have been grateful for the occasional momentary tow. But then again this was 10-15 years after Tommy's record ride, so many things may have changed. Also, Eileen's rides would likely have been under closer scrutiny than Tommy's, as they were much, much shorter duration, and on a fixed, pre-notified route. Fortunately Eileen is one of the handful of cycling legends from that golden era who are still with us. I'll ask her about it all next time we speak!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Assasin on 06 January, 2016, 03:37:53 pm
Eileen's rides in the Early 1950's were run under the strict rules of the WRRA.
The following car contained spares and an observer to scrutinise every part of the ride to ensure that there was no moving outside pacing assistance of any kind.
Those rides were alone and un paced at that time.
Road side assistance (food & drink) was allowed as was encouragement but that was it.

A completely different setup from HAMR attempts.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 06 January, 2016, 03:58:21 pm
I really need to learn to stop clicking on the "show me the post" button.
Keep trying - one day I'll post about Ant+ megabit dongles, or whatever it is that floats your boat.

 :-*
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 06 January, 2016, 04:22:04 pm
I really need to learn to stop clicking on the "show me the post" button.
Keep trying - one day I'll post about Ant+ megabit dongles, or whatever it is that floats your boat.

 :-*
You flatter yourself in assuming it was you he was referring to...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 06 January, 2016, 05:44:59 pm
I really need to learn to stop clicking on the "show me the post" button.
Keep trying - one day I'll post about Ant+ megabit dongles, or whatever it is that floats your boat.

 :-*
You flatter yourself in assuming it was you he was referring to...

thanks for the laugh :)

Do you know why it's ironic that *you* in particular have posted that??
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Grandad on 06 January, 2016, 07:18:12 pm
Doing my National Service in 1954 I frequently rode from camp at Weston Super Mare to home near Epsom. I joined the A4 outside Bath and turned off it at Reading. Tucking in behind lorries on the A4 was always part of these rides but the  longer the tow the slower the last stretch so I arrived home at a similar time either way.

Might this be a consideration when thinking of Steve being paced?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 06 January, 2016, 07:20:20 pm
<very OT>
Miaow indeed!  ;D

I don't presume that anyone gives a tuppenny damn about anything I write on the web.
</very OT>
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jackt on 06 January, 2016, 09:38:44 pm
Doing my National Service in 1954 I frequently rode from camp at Weston Super Mare to home near Epsom. I joined the A4 outside Bath and turned off it at Reading. Tucking in behind lorries on the A4 was always part of these rides but the  longer the tow the slower the last stretch so I arrived home at a similar time either way.

Might this be a consideration when thinking of Steve being paced?

The standard UMCA rules forbid motor vehicle pacing/drafting. On the HAMR, Citizenfish would know, he helped draft the HAMR rules, which make an exception for cycle pacing. Steve has already said that cycle pacing hasn't worked out well so far (pacers riding too fast on the uphills, too slow on the descents).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 12:14:47 am
The stories about Kurt are interesting, especially the Bicycling magazine one. There's a lot of human interest and especially 'redemption' themes. It got me to wondering about a reluctance for the US media to celebrate a cycling hero in the post-Lance era.

We haven't had that for a while in the UK, not since David Millar, and there's the ambiguous relationship we have with the memory of Tommy Simpson.

I got on this train of thought by wondering how old someone inspired to take up cycling in their mid-thirties by Lance's Tour victory in 1999 would be now. They'd be pretty likely to have gone through some of Kurt's experiences, but be wary of being inspired by them after the Armstrong experience. Some US Randonneurs have expressed admiration for Steve's approach. He told me that he had a following in Seattle.

It may be that Kurt doesn't get the full recognition he deserves because of the legacy of Lance.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 07 January, 2016, 12:26:43 am
I had a wee look through Alicia's Twitter history earlier - she's been pretty focussed recently on pitching Kurt's approaching the record to mainstream news outlets (and a few cycling ones as well). It'll be interesting to see whether they pick up on it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 07 January, 2016, 07:00:56 am
I had a wee look through Alicia's Twitter history earlier - she's been pretty focussed recently on pitching Kurt's approaching the record to mainstream news outlets (and a few cycling ones as well). It'll be interesting to see whether they pick up on it.

They'll call him a madman.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tigerrr on 07 January, 2016, 07:05:18 am
The stories about Kurt are interesting, especially the Bicycling magazine one. There's a lot of human interest and especially 'redemption' themes. It got me to wondering about a reluctance for the US media to celebrate a cycling hero in the post-Lance era.

We haven't had that for a while in the UK, not since David Millar, and there's the ambiguous relationship we have with the memory of Tommy Simpson.

I got on this train of thought by wondering how old someone inspired to take up cycling in their mid-thirties by Lance's Tour victory in 1999 would be now. They'd be pretty likely to have gone through some of Kurt's experiences, but be wary of being inspired by them after the Armstrong experience. Some US Randonneurs have expressed admiration for Steve's approach. He told me that he had a following in Seattle.

It may be that Kurt doesn't get the full recognition he deserves because of the legacy of Lance.

I think the subject of the 'story' and 'meaning' of these kinds of human endeavour is fascinating. How people see these activities, what the discussion focuses on, or indeed the level of interest, all has much to say about the role of sport, and the meanings that are attached in different cultures. It isn't simply what they do but the relevance of the story to people's dreams at the time that 'matters'.
I have been reading around the great polar exploration heroic age, and how the efforts of Scott, Amundsen and Shackleton were storied, or not. Scott and Amundsen in particular have similarities to discussion of Steve and Kurt. Both represented different ideas about the purpose and meaning of such exploits, expressed in different national morality tales, that have shifted over time.
Right now, I feel for Steve, it must be very hard going in these conditions, physically and psychologically. Astounding resilience.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 07 January, 2016, 07:44:29 am
'Scott of the Antarctic' lives on because he died.

Don't wish that on Steve.  :facepalm:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tigerrr on 07 January, 2016, 08:23:07 am
I continue to support Both Steve and Kurts amazing efforts. My post is about interpretation of activity and the meanings that get attached in the story as it evolves. To leap to what you seem to suggest is extraordinary, and I trust the implicit offensive accusation is not intended.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 07 January, 2016, 10:09:10 am
The longest running race in the Olympics is called the Marathon. It is run to remember Pheidippides, who collapsed and died immediately after he delivered his message.

If he’d delivered the message and walked away to have a shower, nothing would have been done to commemorate his efforts. He was a ‘running courier’ after all. It was what he did..

Schwalbe would have named their tyres something different, like ‘Little big horn’ after Custer’s death against loads of sharp things ( arrows ).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 07 January, 2016, 10:40:40 am
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

My references to it a couple of weeks ago under the banner of 'duty of care' were probably way too subtle. It's one thing to support someone in a risky endeavour which is their life's dream but I firmly believe it is wrong to do so once it becomes clear the goal is out of reach.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 10:48:59 am
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 10:51:18 am
'Scott of the Antarctic' lives on because he died.

Don't wish that on Steve.  :facepalm:

Whereas the Shackleton story lived on because no-one died, at a time when WW1 was raging.

The 'Bicycling' story reads like a film treatment. Hollywood would put in some degree of estrangement between Kurt and his kids to effect a climactic reconciliation, but there's jeopardy in the middle, and subsidiary characters with story arcs of their own have been introduced.
There's also the 'Sleepless in Seattle' angle, an epistolatory element, contained in these pages. Articles on Steve referred to the 'community' that was supporting him, and how he was staying with hosts. Steve's said that there were problems associated with that, largely around the kit he needed to carry with him, and his need to ignore the niceties of hospitality, i.e just crash out.

During one of the interviews at the Mersey Roads, Steve said that the longest conversations that he'd had recently with anyone outside his team were at that event. From 9 minutes in this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJES8l1YwoI  While these conversations about him fill page after page.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 07 January, 2016, 11:01:39 am
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.

Yes (I'd urge him on if the record looked realistic). Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 January, 2016, 11:07:23 am
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

My references to it a couple of weeks ago under the banner of 'duty of care' were probably way too subtle. It's one thing to support someone in a risky endeavour which is their life's dream but I firmly believe it is wrong to do so once it becomes clear the goal is out of reach.


Even though the mileage of Tommy or indeed Kurt may not be achieved Steve will likely wish to see what mileages he can do.  However if he is happy to change from his audax mode to a different approach with increased back up  (for which the funds are healthy) his chances of quicker miles with reduced unnecessary down time during the day and with increased sleep will/could work wonders!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 07 January, 2016, 11:08:41 am
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.

Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.

I think my answer to that question might be different if Steve were well placed to get the record and not having to play catch up. At this stage, even if Steve were up with the pace, with 8 months still to go a health issue of any sort could become much more serious. If he were well placed with only a month to go and a potentially serious health issue cropped up, then my answer might be different. But then I'm not a doctor.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: DaveE128 on 07 January, 2016, 11:28:25 am
On another note, has anyone been able to find a hamster wheel that is flatter but still as sheltered as the National Bowl? I thought it wouldn't be too hard but didn't manage to come up with anything with less climbing per mile. Given that Steve seems willing to try such an approach (based on yesterday's fb post saying that Steve was test-riding the Bowl in less windy conditions for comparison), perhaps if a few of us could search around for other flatter options it might give Steve some better options?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 07 January, 2016, 11:42:03 am
'Scott of the Antarctic' lives on because he died.

Don't wish that on Steve.  :facepalm:

Whereas the Shackleton story lived on because no-one died, at a time when WW1 was raging.


Also Shackleton knew when to pack up, go home, regroup and have another go.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 07 January, 2016, 11:48:22 am
On another note, has anyone been able to find a hamster wheel that is flatter but still as sheltered as the National Bowl? I thought it wouldn't be too hard but didn't manage to come up with anything with less climbing per mile. Given that Steve seems willing to try such an approach (based on yesterday's fb post saying that Steve was test-riding the Bowl in less windy conditions for comparison), perhaps if a few of us could search around for other flatter options it might give Steve some better options?

Hillingdon is flatter but not sheltered.
Any parkland circuit is likely to be windy, unless it has loads of trees, which they don't tend to. Hence an on-road circuit is likely to be faster (most likely a time trial course as UK racing cyclists have spent much of the last hundred years looking for exactly that!)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Gareth Rees on 07 January, 2016, 11:52:30 am
Whereas the Shackleton story lived on because no-one died.

No-one other than Arnold Spencer-Smith (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_Spencer-Smith).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 12:09:18 pm
That does get forgotten, but the Ross Sea party wasn't under Shackleton's command in the same way as the Endurance, which is the story we all get told.

Another two died in that part of the expedition.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 07 January, 2016, 12:18:54 pm
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

My references to it a couple of weeks ago under the banner of 'duty of care' were probably way too subtle. It's one thing to support someone in a risky endeavour which is their life's dream but I firmly believe it is wrong to do so once it becomes clear the goal is out of reach.


Even though the mileage of Tommy or indeed Kurt may not be achieved Steve will likely wish to see what mileages he can do.  However if he is happy to change from his audax mode to a different approach with increased back up  (for which the funds are healthy) his chances of quicker miles with reduced unnecessary down time during the day and with increased sleep will/could work wonders!

Then it no longer becomes a record attempt and just a long bike ride with no need to continue to ask for voluntary contributions to pay for it IMO.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 12:19:48 pm
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.

Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.

I think my answer to that question might be different if Steve were well placed to get the record and not having to play catch up. At this stage, even if Steve were up with the pace, with 8 months still to go a health issue of any sort could become much more serious. If he were well placed with only a month to go and a potentially serious health issue cropped up, then my answer might be different. But then I'm not a doctor.

If something occurs that is serious enough then I'd assume Steve would stop regardless of the status of the attempt.

There's nothing to indicate that what Steve is doing now is any more (or less) detrimental to his health than when he first started the attempt.

Even though Steve may fall behind the pace required for the Godwin/Kurt record he may continue just to beat his previous attempt and get a PB. We're in the dark as to Steve's exact motivations.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 07 January, 2016, 12:26:02 pm
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.

Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.

I think my answer to that question might be different if Steve were well placed to get the record and not having to play catch up. At this stage, even if Steve were up with the pace, with 8 months still to go a health issue of any sort could become much more serious. If he were well placed with only a month to go and a potentially serious health issue cropped up, then my answer might be different. But then I'm not a doctor.

If something occurs that is serious enough then I'd assume Steve would stop regardless of the status of the attempt.

There's nothing to indicate that what Steve is doing now is any more (or less) detrimental to his health than when he first started the attempt.

Even though Steve may fall behind the pace required for the Godwin/Kurt record he may continue just to beat his previous attempt and get a PB. We're in the dark as to Steve's exact motivations.

Then it no longer becomes a record attempt and just a long bike ride with no need to continue to ask for voluntary contributions to pay for it IMO.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 12:28:45 pm
Then it no longer becomes a record attempt and just a long bike ride with no need to continue to ask for voluntary contributions to pay for it IMO.

And many may agree with you (I'd probably continue to donate to that PB attempt), but the current plan seems (based on what Idai said in that interview) to be to continue to strive towards breaking the record, with a continue/stop decision to be made at the end of the month. Until I hear otherwise that's what I'll assume they're doing.

We'll also have no idea whether the decision they make is genuine or not, but I've got no reason not to trust them.

The numbers (required distance per day) are either going to remain on a knife-edge or continue to trend upwards up. No-one knows what the magic cut-off point number is. Some think it has already passed. As I said elsewhere, I think it's going to be somewhere between 219 miles per day (current required amount if Kurt adds what is expected) and 300 miles per day (where I think it's definitely toast), but I can't place exactly where it transitions from "has a chance, even if it's slim" to "no chance whatsoever".
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 07 January, 2016, 12:32:54 pm
I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that.  Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 07 January, 2016, 12:33:46 pm
One thing I will say, which is a bit like a broken record I suppose, but anyone out there today has my utmost admiration. Here in Southend I think it is the gloomiest day of the winter so far. It's not cold, and I don't think it is especially windy, but it is bucketing down with rain. Definitely lights-on cycling.

(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xat1/v/t34.0-12/12516067_1542183029434234_1738354284_n.jpg?oh=2fcddef251972c687007bf82f7a0f89b&oe=56909A8B)

That's the view from my front door a few minutes ago. In reality it looks a lot darker than that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 07 January, 2016, 12:36:52 pm
I wonder if the mods would be good enough to remove the "2015" from the board title, since it no longer is? Kajsa's and Bruce's attempts most definitely do not belong under that heading.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 07 January, 2016, 12:43:39 pm
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.

Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.

I think my answer to that question might be different if Steve were well placed to get the record and not having to play catch up. At this stage, even if Steve were up with the pace, with 8 months still to go a health issue of any sort could become much more serious. If he were well placed with only a month to go and a potentially serious health issue cropped up, then my answer might be different. But then I'm not a doctor.

If something occurs that is serious enough then I'd assume Steve would stop regardless of the status of the attempt.

There's nothing to indicate that what Steve is doing now is any more (or less) detrimental to his health than when he first started the attempt.

Even though Steve may fall behind the pace required for the Godwin/Kurt record he may continue just to beat his previous attempt and get a PB. We're in the dark as to Steve's exact motivations.

I'm not talking about acute stuff (agree with what you say on that); more the effect of doing it on long term health.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris S on 07 January, 2016, 12:43:45 pm
I wonder if the mods would be good enough to remove the "2015" from the board title, since it no longer is? Kajsa's and Bruce's attempts most definitely do not belong under that heading.

Better still, how about a new Sub-forum under Rides & Touring, entitled "World Record Attempts"?

After all - these attempts have little or nothing to do with Audax.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 12:48:28 pm
I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that.  Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?

'Racing' be the place for that. I'm with Chris S about this being on the Audax board.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 12:49:53 pm
I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that.  Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?

If your PBs were going to be national records, and you could provide some evidence that you've got a reasonable chance then some may consider donating.

So if you're going for the 10 mile TT record (17:20 by Dowsett isn't it?) show me your results where you've done, I dunno, sub 18:20 and I'd consider donating.

Money probably best spent on something like Aerocoach and getting CdA down before swanky wheels though.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 07 January, 2016, 12:51:34 pm

the current plan seems (based on what Idai said in that interview) to be to continue to strive towards breaking the record, with a continue/stop decision to be made at the end of the month.

I know people have written that was what Idai said but it wasn't how I interpreted the interview when I listened to it. He said something similar (and I can't recall the exact words) but I didn't think it amounted to a hard go/no go review at the end of Jan. I expect the run rate to continue to climb through Jan but for the ride to trundle on.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 07 January, 2016, 12:53:50 pm
Is that pikey old Beemer the backup for when the Leaf runs out of voles, Mr Wowbagger :D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 07 January, 2016, 12:58:17 pm
I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.

If he was closer to being on track, and feeling well, it would be a useful sign that he is operating within his physical and mental limits, so it might be reasonable to conclude that carrying on was not necessarily detrimental to his health. But as things stand...

I'm going to wait until the end of the month to hear what Steve's intentions are. While I agree that Idai probably didn't mean there would be a hard end point at the end of Jan, my understanding is that there is to be a review and a sharing of intentions. I'm as interested in how the plan has been arrived at as I am in the content of the plan.

Why am I a bit less "Go Steve" today? I know it is not reliable evidence, and I'm not reading too much into it, but I didn't think Steve looked that great in his MK Bowl photo yesterday.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 01:03:21 pm
I'm not talking about acute stuff (agree with what you say on that); more the effect of doing it on long term health.

I don't think there's enough evidence to know exactly what effect a challenge like this will have on long term health. I agree it will have some effects, but exactly what I've no idea. Certainly not enough idea in my mind to justify calling it off on those grounds alone. Steve had accepted the risk that comes with doing it for 12 months, and I don't think (or know of any evidence) that the risk becomes much greater continuing on for a further 8 months.

There aren't many people to base a study on at all. Not people who've done this kind of endurance event at least, and not all 'endurance' events can be counted equally. Several riders made more than one complete attempt at the record (Ossie Nicholson, Bernard Bennett, Rene Menzies) in their lifetime although none consecutively. The closest are the people that went for the 100,000 mile records as they continued for ~17 months.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 01:09:08 pm
I wonder if the mods would be good enough to remove the "2015" from the board title, since it no longer is? Kajsa's and Bruce's attempts most definitely do not belong under that heading.

Better still, how about a new Sub-forum under Rides & Touring, entitled "World Record Attempts"?

After all - these attempts have little or nothing to do with Audax.

I'm sure someone will be along soon to ask why there's so much negativity towards Steve and the attempt forthcoming new record based on discussions of where on the forum the sub-forum should be located and exactly what the title of the sub-forum should be.

Maybe we need a "Thoughts on the current record attempt thread title and sub-forum location?" thread.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 01:13:20 pm
Maybe even an, 'I knew nothing about this until I got I book for Christmas, and now I'm an expert', thread.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 01:18:59 pm
I'm going to wait until the end of the month to hear what Steve's intentions are. While I agree that Idai probably didn't mean there would be a hard end point at the end of Jan, my understanding is that there is to be a review and a sharing of intentions. I'm as interested in how the plan has been arrived at as I am in the content of the plan.

We're back to the binary interpretations of things (which I freely admit I tend to do, probably more than others). After "a review and a sharing of intentions" it should be pretty obvious whether he'll be continuing to strive for the record or he won't be. I doubt it'll be "I'll continue to ride the bike and see if I'm lucky enough to do the right number of miles to get the record." but it may be "The main record is most likely out of reach but I'm going to aim for a PB."

Steve may fail to set a new record, but that does not make Steve a failure.

I expect the run rate to continue to climb through Jan but for the ride to trundle on.

Same here, but that seems to be the initial part of the plan.

An outline of the plan would be great, although it doesn't really matter how much detail is shared it's never going to be enough for some people and there's always going to be room for assumptions, conjecture and doubt, so I don't think it will change much in that respect. People would just have some different things to get all frothy about.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 07 January, 2016, 01:38:36 pm
I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that.  Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?

If your PBs were going to be national records, and you could provide some evidence that you've got a reasonable chance then some may consider donating.

So if you're going for the 10 mile TT record (17:20 by Dowsett isn't it?) show me your results where you've done, I dunno, sub 18:20 and I'd consider donating.

Money probably best spent on something like Aerocoach and getting CdA down before swanky wheels though.

Well yes, that's the point: it's the difference between a record attempt and a PB.  I sponsored Steve right at the start, before the regular giving scheme was even set up, when I thought he had a serious chance at the record, but now that's vanishingly unlikely to happen and he's just going for a PB.  Well that makes two of us, him and me, and I don't see his non-record-breaking quest for a 1 year PB as any more worthy a target than my quest for a(nother (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=229.msg1938892#msg1938892)) 4 hour 100, so I shan't be funding it. 

To be honest, I really wish everyone would stop funding him as that might make him take a colder, more rational assessment of his chances than the current situation, where he's got a comfortable financial cushion of ongoing donations to a record attempt that isn't a record attempt anymore.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 01:42:47 pm


An outline of the plan would be great, although it doesn't really matter how much detail is shared it's never going to be enough for some people and there's always going to be room for assumptions, conjecture and doubt, so I don't think it will change much in that respect. People would just have some different things to get all frothy about.

Steve's schedule was made public before he started. When Kurt published his it was commented that it mirrored Steve's and much discussion ensued.

A lot of the manoeuvring which has defined the debate happened around the start of Steve's ride. The moped incident put paid to that developing debate. Steve wasn't keeping to his schedule, Kurt was, and continued to do so with the odd wobble.

Since then it's been unclear what Steve's aims are. If you don't have a schedule, you can't be off it.
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87329.0
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 01:47:09 pm
but now that's vanishingly unlikely to happen and he's just going for a PB.

We don't know that for certain though. We don't have any clear idea of his intentions.

To be honest, I really wish everyone would stop funding him as that might make him take a colder, more rational assessment of his chances than the current situation, where he's got a comfortable financial cushion of ongoing donations to a record attempt that isn't a record attempt anymore.

I don't think that would have any real effect on his current attempt:-

In my opinion if all funding stopped now, there would be enough in the pot to fund the 2nd attempt to 7th Aug 2016 and still leave a 5 figure sum to be donated to charity  -- but using some of the surplus at 8.8.16 to allow Steve to settle back into " real" life might be seen as reasonable.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 07 January, 2016, 01:52:24 pm
Yeah, I know he's got money in the bank, but it might at least give him a bit of a jolt.

His intentions don't really matter: AFAICS he's ridden himself into the ground and isn't going to get any records without a stop and restart.  All he can possibly aim for now is a personal PB, which puts him on the same level as amateur racing cyclists the world over, and about as worthy of funding.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 01:55:53 pm
Steve's schedule was made public before he started. When Kurt published his it was commented that it mirrored Steve's and much discussion ensued.

A lot of the manoeuvring which has defined the debate happened around the start of Steve's ride. The moped incident put paid to that developing debate. Steve wasn't keeping to his schedule, Kurt was, and continued to do so with the odd wobble.

Really?

According to jo's visualisations Steve was tracking his upper schedule almost perfectly until moped day (daily distance wise, not in terms of average speed and riding time, which was the reason why that schedule wasn't going to be sustainable for much longer).

Kurt on the other hand rode a reasonably flat profile, not much like his schedule at all, and he was almost 4000 miles down on his schedule at the end of October. Luckily his schedule was to beat Tommy's record by 3500 miles and he pulled it back in the last month.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 02:09:33 pm
Steve's schedule was made public before he started. When Kurt published his it was commented that it mirrored Steve's and much discussion ensued.

A lot of the manoeuvring which has defined the debate happened around the start of Steve's ride. The moped incident put paid to that developing debate. Steve wasn't keeping to his schedule, Kurt was, and continued to do so with the odd wobble.

Really?

According to jo's visualisations Steve was tracking his upper schedule almost perfectly until moped day (daily distance wise, not in terms of average speed and riding time, which was the reason why that schedule wasn't going to be sustainable for much longer).

Kurt on the other hand rode a reasonably flat profile, not much like his schedule at all, and he was almost 4000 miles down on his schedule at the end of October. Luckily his schedule was to beat Tommy's record by 3500 miles and he pulled it back in the last month.

The last day before the accident, and a week after the equinox.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay87.png)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: geraldc on 07 January, 2016, 02:12:32 pm
At the start of the attempt, there was a lot of talk about how to handle sleep debt, I don't think Kurt had any problems with that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 07 January, 2016, 02:13:47 pm
Yeah, I know he's got money in the bank, but it might at least give him a bit of a jolt.

His intentions don't really matter: AFAICS he's ridden himself into the ground and isn't going to get any records without a stop and restart.  All he can possibly aim for now is a personal PB, which puts him on the same level as amateur racing cyclists the world over, and about as worthy of funding.

and as Steve already has a HAM'R PB (albeit sub-TmyG), there wouldn't really be much point aiming for another, unless it's to actually break the HAM'R - which it currently is.

Also thought that Steve didn't look too good in photo outside of The Bowl, but then again photos can be unreliable as a guide...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Si S on 07 January, 2016, 02:16:34 pm
At the start of the attempt, there was a lot of talk about how to handle sleep debt, I don't think Kurt had any problems with that.

IIRC he's on record somewhere saying he didn't do sleep deprivation EVER.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 07 January, 2016, 02:18:03 pm
Then it no longer becomes a record attempt and just a long bike ride with no need to continue to ask for voluntary contributions to pay for it IMO.

And many may agree with you (I'd probably continue to donate to that PB attempt), but the current plan seems (based on what Idai said in that interview) to be to continue to strive towards breaking the record, with a continue/stop decision to be made at the end of the month. Until I hear otherwise that's what I'll assume they're doing.

We'll also have no idea whether the decision they make is genuine or not, but I've got no reason not to trust them.

The numbers (required distance per day) are either going to remain on a knife-edge or continue to trend upwards up. No-one knows what the magic cut-off point number is. Some think it has already passed. As I said elsewhere, I think it's going to be somewhere between 219 miles per day (current required amount if Kurt adds what is expected) and 300 miles per day (where I think it's definitely toast), but I can't place exactly where it transitions from "has a chance, even if it's slim" to "no chance whatsoever".

I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 02:26:04 pm
The last day before the accident, and a week after the equinox.

Sorry, it's lost on me, what are you trying to show me with that graph?

What I can see is that Steve had a wobble and slipped a day behind. He knew he was going to have some good days and bad days. Without the moped incident it would have almost certainly gone off the rails very quickly after that anyway as that schedule was proving to be far too ambitious (the required distance was being achieved by riding longer than expected to make up for not being as fast as expected). He could still have been on track to beat Tommy's record though; with hindsight the ~82000 mile target may have been a bit too ambitious.

They both underestimated how well they'd start and both overestimated how well they'd do in the summer months.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 02:27:26 pm
I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.

Agreed, and that his website/FB/twitter is updated to indicate this if it becomes the case.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 02:36:58 pm
Also thought that Steve didn't look too good in photo outside of The Bowl, but then again photos can be unreliable as a guide...

If this is a kosher Internet diagnosis-by-photo service you're offering I'll get a photo of me later (probably after playing 5-a-side football so I may look a little more haggard than normal) and you can let me know whether I'm likely to succeed with a marathon in April.

Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!

:P
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 02:41:31 pm
Speaking of schedules, just noticed that his two original schedules have disappeared from the website in the last 24 hours.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 07 January, 2016, 02:43:43 pm
The photo doesn't look great but hard to read anything into it.

I'm more interested in what he was eating. Looked at first glance like a tube of Pringles (but wrong colour?). Surely not on his new diet though.

From Strava first 6 days of January average about 181 miles. That's added a mile to the run rate. At least it improves on December.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Chris N on 07 January, 2016, 02:46:53 pm
Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!

:P

Teethgrindr?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 07 January, 2016, 02:52:00 pm
Also thought that Steve didn't look too good in photo outside of The Bowl, but then again photos can be unreliable as a guide...

If this is a kosher Internet diagnosis-by-photo service you're offering I'll get a photo of me later (probably after playing 5-a-side football so I may look a little more haggard than normal) and you can let me know whether I'm likely to succeed with a marathon in April.

Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!

:P

 ;)  Actually just agreeing with Sgt Pluck's earlier observation...   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 02:53:49 pm
The last day before the accident, and a week after the equinox.

Sorry, it's lost on me, what are you trying to show me with that graph?

What I can see is that Steve had a wobble and slipped a day behind. He knew he was going to have some good days and bad days. Without the moped incident it would have almost certainly gone off the rails very quickly after that anyway as that schedule was proving to be far too ambitious (the required distance was being achieved by riding longer than expected to make up for not being as fast as expected). He could still have been on track to beat Tommy's record though; with hindsight the ~82000 mile target may have been a bit too ambitious.

They both underestimated how well they'd start and both overestimated how well they'd do in the summer months.

They got involved in a head to head battle early on, with Kurt pulling out a lead in spite of his slower initial schedule. There's a graph of Steve's two schedules and Kurt's on this page. https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87407.0   Jan 10th

I've added both Steve's (red dashes) and Tarzan's (blue dashes) planned schedule for the year. Steve has provided two schedules depending on how things go (see his site for rationale (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-schedules-explained)) so I've shaded the area between them.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttYearWeek1Schedule.png)

I hadn't realised quite how ambitious his target was compared to Tommy Godwin's and even Tarzan's. That 10 day tactical advantage that Tarzan has isn't going to count for much if they both stick to their schedules as Steve would be between 4,000 and 8,000 miles up in the last two weeks of their rides.

Over the first 9 days, Steve is on target for his more optimistic schedule  :thumbsup:

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttWeek1Schedule.png)

Should get interesting once Tarzan starts tomorrow.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 03:09:11 pm
There only seems to have been one comment from the team on the visualisations.
Team is curious - we thought that Tarzan would demonstrate his strength by putting in bigger days than Steve at the start - then begin to find it hard going later -- hare and tortoise -- just doing a few more miles than Steve each day seems to be a developing tactic.

They seem to have been surprised by Kurt 'shadowing' Steve, and also by how obvious the relative performances were in the visualisations.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 03:56:37 pm
They got involved in a head to head battle early on, with Kurt pulling out a lead in spite of his slower initial schedule.

I'm not able to grab images and host them, but just go to http://gicentre.org/oytt/ and click on the "Schedules" checkbox. Then look at how each of them did according to their schedules.

Kurt's "sine wave" (of his actual miles) was much flatter than he'd predicted (in other words, he did a more consistent daily mileage) and it looks like Steve was trying to emulate that with the restarted attempt (although it's comparing apples to oranges as Kurts line starts in January and Steve's restart was August).

Anyway, this was in response to you saying "Steve wasn't keeping to his schedule, Kurt was..." and, to me, the graph just doesn't show that. Kurt was keeping to his schedule in the sense that he was vastly exceeding it for the first 5 months, but then he fell behind and never caught up with it. He only caught back up with the Godwin line in December. Whilst Steve, for the first 3 months (of the first attempt), was almost spot on his schedule (which was unlikely to be sustainable for much longer).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jsabine on 07 January, 2016, 04:03:21 pm
I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.

We are in touch with Steve's support team ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 07 January, 2016, 05:20:56 pm
Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!

:P

Teethgrindr?

:-) Excellent.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 06:50:52 pm
Greenbank is quite right, Steve and Kurt were well off their schedules by mid-February. They responded to the positive feedback from social media, and it distorted their performances.

Day 45: Kurt wins the Sebring 12hr race as a 'side project' with 253.2 miles before adding another 10 to the OYTT for good measure. Meanwhile Steve knocks out a cool 193 miles to keep his consistent pace. William records his highest daily total so far at 81 miles, but has a deficit of over 7,000 miles to make up.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay45.png)

I was wondering by mid-March if the information tail was wagging the dog. Big mile days brought kudos on Strava, and attention in the media.

It's interesting to think of this feedback as part of a complex control system.
These graphs are a key indicator. I wonder if an emphasis on keeping the plots smooth is in conflict with a sustainable approach. Kurt's got an IT background, so a cybernetic view might appeal to him. That might make a good title for an article, 'The ride of the cyber-men'.
Publicity is the other obvious feedback path, hopefully generating some funds for Kurt.

Steve's current performance is perhaps a reversion to the original plan. Can it work in the absence of the distortion of all that positive feedback?

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 07 January, 2016, 07:22:06 pm
I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.

We are in touch with Steve's support team ...
Speaking as an AUK member, I would favour:
 
keeping the OPTIONAL donation button,  but updated with whatever new info you can get from Team Steve.
[it would be even cooler to update it regularly with news :P  ]
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 07 January, 2016, 07:29:44 pm
Greenbank is quite right, Steve and Kurt were well off their schedules by mid-February. They responded to the positive feedback from social media, and it distorted their performances.

Day 45: Kurt wins the Sebring 12hr race as a 'side project' with 253.2 miles before adding another 10 to the OYTT for good measure. Meanwhile Steve knocks out a cool 193 miles to keep his consistent pace. William records his highest daily total so far at 81 miles, but has a deficit of over 7,000 miles to make up.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay45.png)

I was wondering by mid-March if the information tail was wagging the dog. Big mile days brought kudos on Strava, and attention in the media.
I dont think Steve was way off schedule. That graph shows him less than 200 miles ahead of schedule, (under 5 miles a day).
Wherease Kurt is more like 600 above after 37 days.

And you will note that Greenbank did NOT say Steve was well off his schedule.

There doesnt seem to be much right in your post, TBH. Sorry!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 07 January, 2016, 08:05:45 pm
...but I didn't think Steve looked that great in his MK Bowl photo yesterday.

What photo? Where?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: αdαmsκι on 07 January, 2016, 08:07:29 pm
https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015/photos/a.1523448711237093.1073741830.1520678421514122/1658738951041401/?type=3

(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/12417838_1658738951041401_2060257200429254760_n.jpg?oh=f7165dd8639e00e383d4d9a0cfdbbc5c&oe=5706A24D)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 07 January, 2016, 08:08:51 pm
Ta, Mr Adamski
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 07 January, 2016, 09:05:26 pm
You don't have to be on Facebook to see Steve's FB page.

https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015

Works even in private/incognito browsing mode although you may get a CAPTCHA check to make sure you're not a robot.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 07 January, 2016, 09:20:21 pm
https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015/photos/a.1523448711237093.1073741830.1520678421514122/1658738951041401/?type=3

(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/12417838_1658738951041401_2060257200429254760_n.jpg?oh=f7165dd8639e00e383d4d9a0cfdbbc5c&oe=5706A24D)

 :o what's he done wrong?  ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 07 January, 2016, 09:45:46 pm
Norman Stanley Fletcher( if you ask me).  You are an habitual mile eater who accepts the miles day after day and presumably accepts the tiredness in the same casual manner! ! We therefore sentence you to the maximum for these offences! 
You will ride G Du South for the next five years.!!!
 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 07 January, 2016, 10:38:02 pm
 ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 07 January, 2016, 10:58:00 pm
Greenbank is quite right, Steve and Kurt were well off their schedules by mid-February. They responded to the positive feedback from social media, and it distorted their performances.

Day 45: Kurt wins the Sebring 12hr race as a 'side project' with 253.2 miles before adding another 10 to the OYTT for good measure. Meanwhile Steve knocks out a cool 193 miles to keep his consistent pace. William records his highest daily total so far at 81 miles, but has a deficit of over 7,000 miles to make up.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay45.png)

I was wondering by mid-March if the information tail was wagging the dog. Big mile days brought kudos on Strava, and attention in the media.
I dont think Steve was way off schedule. That graph shows him less than 200 miles ahead of schedule, (under 5 miles a day).
Wherease Kurt is more like 600 above after 37 days.

And you will note that Greenbank did NOT say Steve was well off his schedule.

There doesnt seem to be much right in your post, TBH. Sorry!

That's 200 miles above his 87,000 mile schedule. An attempt to make up ground on Kurt was made at Day 19. That raised Steve 200 miles above his schedule, but he plateaued at that, which is unsurprising at that time of year. He stayed at that trend line, but dipped before the accident. As Greenbank noted, Steve was accumulating sleep debt. The eventual result will be well below Steve's lower schedule, and Kurt's only schedule.
Steve and Kurt should have taken it easier early on.
Whether Steve's current performance is a cause for panic is up for debate.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 08 January, 2016, 07:10:07 am
Holiday snaps from Guantanamo Bay.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 08 January, 2016, 08:23:24 am
Is he on the Pringles Diet now?

Winter is due to land next week, according to forecasters. Steve has had to contend with hindering weather so far in his second attempt. Now comes the hostile stuff. I hope he's somewhere approaching full fitness by the time he has to battle it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: swampthing on 08 January, 2016, 10:25:57 am
Speaking of schedules, just noticed that his two original schedules have disappeared from the website in the last 24 hours.

There is a new schedule on the website (it has not been posted here yet, has it?):
http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation/142-targets-2016 (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation/142-targets-2016)

Month Distance Distance/ day
August 2015 4,564.70 190.196
September 2015 6,424.80 214.160
October 2015 6,469.60 208.697
November 2015 5,491.20 183.041
December 2015 4,910.20 158.394
January 2016 6,250.00 201.6
February 2016 6,425.00 221.6
March 2016 6,990.00 225.5
April 2016 7,110.00 237.0
May 2016 7,195.00 232.1
June 2016 7,035.00 234.5
July 2016 7,024.00 226.6
August 2016 1,260.00 210.0
Total 77,149.50

August to December are the past rides, values for 2016 are planned (with 190 miles from 1st to 7th January and 205 miles/ day thereafter). No more days falling below one Godwin, starting today, according to this ambitious plan.
Good luck, Steve! 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 08 January, 2016, 10:39:56 am
Interesting and really helpful in anchoring discussion about the likelihood of success and progress towards a new record. That's a pretty tough March-July, but at least we will get some idea well before then if he's up to it. I think February will be the make or break month (222 mpd will be really hard in UK winter conditions), but good luck to Steve and the team.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: L CC on 08 January, 2016, 10:43:12 am
Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: IJL on 08 January, 2016, 10:57:49 am
Quote
Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

I hope so, a spell somewhere warm and flat would make a big difference, he's going to need to be lucky with the weather to do 222mpd in Feb and luck seems to have been in short supply in recent times
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ivo on 08 January, 2016, 11:01:19 am
Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

The Bordeaux area would be a good one for that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 08 January, 2016, 11:03:31 am
Quote
Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

I hope so, a spell somewhere warm and flat would make a big difference, he's going to need to be lucky with the weather to do 222mpd in Feb and luck seems to have been in short supply in recent times

Good to see a schedule and a plan, it's reassuring. Here's hoping for a benign remainder of the winter. Never mind February (the coldest month on average) a March like the one seen in 2013 would not be good news either. Still cold weather in the winter is often dry and calm.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 08 January, 2016, 11:04:29 am
Great to see that some thinking has been done by the team on this.

Anyone know how he has tracked against the early Jan part:
Friday, January 1, 2016    190
Saturday, January 2, 2016    190
Sunday, January 3, 2016    190
Monday, January 4, 2016    190
Tuesday, January 5, 2016    190
Wednesday, January 6, 2016    190
Thursday, January 7, 2016    190?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 08 January, 2016, 11:08:30 am
Rename the sub-forum.

"2016 Kurt Searvogel Record Attempt".
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 08 January, 2016, 11:12:11 am
January 1, 2016    201.7
January 2, 2016    190.5
January 3, 2016    161.2
January 4, 2016    181.2
January 5, 2016    195.2
January 6, 2016    156.9
January 7, 2016    200
TOTAL                  1286.7
So an average of 206.8mpd required in the remaining 24 days of January (i.e. 20 minutes more riding and 20 minutes less rest than his longest day of the year so far, every day).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Laid Back Rich on 08 January, 2016, 11:24:31 am
Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

The Bordeaux area would be a good one for that.

Likely better weather, and good flat straight fast roads, but that seems to encourage very fast driving too - I always feel uneasy riding down there.
Academic anyway IMO, I can't see Steve leaving UK to do any of this.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 08 January, 2016, 11:26:11 am
Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

The Bordeaux area would be a good one for that.

If we we were thinking on a Continental scale, as Kurt did, we might be looking into the Mistral. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mistral_(wind)
Upwind transfers don't just avoid headwind, they make use of tailwinds as a positive effect. I wonder what the N7 is like to cycle on.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 08 January, 2016, 11:40:16 am
January 1, 2016    201.7
January 2, 2016    190.5
January 3, 2016    161.2
January 4, 2016    181.2
January 5, 2016    195.2
January 6, 2016    156.9
January 7, 2016    200
TOTAL                  1286.7
So an average of 206.8mpd required in the remaining 24 days of January (i.e. 20 minutes more riding and 20 minutes less rest than his longest day of the year so far, every day).

Thanks - so I make that he's 43 miles down on the 190 per day schedule for the first week.
It doesn't sound a lot but any deficit needs to be clawed back at some point and makes the task harder.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 08 January, 2016, 11:43:47 am
Interesting plan, kind of what I expected although the peak is earlier than I thought (Apr not June/July) and flatter near the end with less of a drop into August (there's only 6 days).

Good luck Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 08 January, 2016, 11:49:51 am
So an average of 206.8mpd required in the remaining 24 days of January (i.e. 20 minutes more riding and 20 minutes less rest than his longest day of the year so far, every day).

Thanks - so I make that he's 43 miles down on the 190 per day schedule for the first week.
It doesn't sound a lot but any deficit needs to be clawed back at some point and makes the task harder.

As Legs says, it's 1.8 miles per day for the rest of Jan to claw that back.

Plus they'll be less to do if Kurt doesn't achieve 77,149.49.

Kurt's on for 76100-ish (I think), so that's 1000 miles of that plan that Steve won't have to do (if it really came down to it), or about 4.5 miles per day.

Part of me wants Kurt to smash it for the last few days, and part of me wants him to ease up and be kind to Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 08 January, 2016, 12:16:38 pm
Rename the sub-forum.

"2016 Kurt Searvogel Record Attempt".

I wish I'd said that.

Oh, wait... (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87329.msg1969888#msg1969888)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 08 January, 2016, 12:23:36 pm
Silly Larrington. No-one reads the thread before posting, that would be too easy.

*prepares the BEAR*
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 08 January, 2016, 12:35:59 pm
It's a little concerning that the schedule for January starts with an already-accrued 43 mile deficit!! For all the reasons frequently given here, I believe this schedule is unlikely to work, but at least we now have one and can objectively judge how Steve is doing relative to it. Once again, I wish him all the luck he needs and more, but I'm not optimistic.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: drgannet on 08 January, 2016, 12:39:18 pm
Plus they'll be less to do if Kurt doesn't achieve 77,149.49.

Kurt's on for 76100-ish (I think), so that's 1000 miles of that plan that Steve won't have to do (if it really came down to it), or about 4.5 miles per day.

Part of me wants Kurt to smash it for the last few days, and part of me wants him to ease up and be kind to Steve.

The 77149 is a good target, because that would beat Tommy's 77001 (still the furthest anyone has cycled in a year, as far as we know).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 08 January, 2016, 12:56:09 pm
It's a little concerning that the schedule for January starts with an already-accrued 43 mile deficit!! For all the reasons frequently given here, I believe this schedule is unlikely to work, but at least we now have one and can objectively judge how Steve is doing relative to it. Once again, I wish him all the luck he needs and more, but I'm not optimistic.
+1.  Interesting, as Greenbank points out, that the peak daily mileage is scheduled for April rather than a later month - I would have thought that, once the worst of winter passes (probably next month), riding conditions would steadily improve through to the end of the attempt.  April, with typical showery weather and blustery conditions, strikes me as a much less clement month than, say, June.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 08 January, 2016, 01:00:40 pm
I suspect that front-loading the schedule optimistically allows Steve to regain any shortfall along the way. "I just have to keep improving, etc"
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 08 January, 2016, 01:02:33 pm
It's good to see a set of targets. Now comes the point where we say that we wouldn't have done it like that!

As has been said above, I cannot see the point in peaking in April and then cutting back later. Surely, Steve will want to pile things on toward the end of the ride. I suppose he has the flexibility with this plan (plans can change, and I would suggest that changing this plan in the light =of experience is part of the plan) that, if he is behind this schedule, but is catching up with Kurt, he can shift the planned miles towards the end of the challenge. After all, it doesn't really matter how exhausted he is by 7th August because he will have plenty of time for a rest then.

As ever, wishing Steve the best of luck.

@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England. In 2007, when Mrs. Wow and I did our LEJOG, there were some weather stations operated by Essex and Suffolk Water that didn't record any rain throughout the whole of April. We didn't experience any at all until we were on Arran, and then it was only 20 minutes or so. It rained all day when we went through Fort William and we had another wet afternoon on the East Coast.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 08 January, 2016, 01:13:32 pm


@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England. In 2007, when Mrs. Wow and I did our LEJOG, there were some weather stations operated by Essex and Suffolk Water that didn't record any rain throughout the whole of April. We didn't experience any at all until we were on Arran, and then it was only 20 minutes or so. It rained all day when we went through Fort William and we had another wet afternoon on the East Coast.

I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers. April tends to be dry with extremes of temperature. Weather rhymes predate the Gregorian calendar, so refer to a period 11 days later.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wowbagger on 08 January, 2016, 01:15:48 pm
I think it was Dez who asked me this question, as a result of watching QI. It was "Which UK Bank Holiday is most likely to have snow?" and it was, of course, Easter Monday.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: swampthing on 08 January, 2016, 01:16:45 pm

There is a new schedule on the website (it has not been posted here yet, has it?):
http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation/142-targets-2016 (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation/142-targets-2016)

I have added a column with Steve's mileage 2015 for those months, in which he was cycling (almost) unimpaired (value for March 2015 from 1-28). Compared to 2015 he has to increase his monthly distances by 9% to 16% in order to follow the new schedule. That looks really ambitious.

Month Distance Distance/ day   Distance/ day 2015 (%change)
August 2015 4,564.70 190.196
September 2015 6,424.80 214.160
October 2015 6,469.60 208.697
November 2015 5,491.20 183.041
December 2015 4,910.20 158.394
January 2016 6,250.00 201.6   185.3 (+9%)
February 2016 6,425.00 221.6   191.4 (+16%)
March 2016 6,990.00 225.5   204.6 (+10%)
April 2016 7,110.00 237.0
May 2016 7,195.00 232.1
June 2016 7,035.00 234.5   214.9 (+9%)
July 2016 7,024.00 226.6
August 2016 1,260.00 210.0
Total 77,149.50
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 08 January, 2016, 01:20:51 pm
I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers.

That was a tough one. Finding the pre-dawn control village hall locked with the controller stamping brevet cards outside was particularly unwelcome.

I kept wishing you'd fart, just for the warmth!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 08 January, 2016, 01:48:29 pm
Looks a bit weird how it is front end loaded.
The February and March schedules will need the weather to play ball. 
In a typical UK year, those are usually the most ice and snow affected months.  It would be easy to lose a half day here or there, which will destroy that schedule, necessitating a subsequent rework.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 08 January, 2016, 01:49:45 pm
I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers.

That was a tough one. Finding the pre-dawn control village hall locked with the controller stamping brevet cards outside was particularly unwelcome.

Your reaction made it onto the 2003 PBP film I made, at 2.30 in part 1.
https://vimeo.com/9211968

Steve puts in an appearance in part two at 17 seconds, on the back of the triplet.
https://vimeo.com/9211423

I've filmed most of the main actors in this drama at one time or another. The nearest I got to Kurt was filming his RAAM partner Joel Sothern, who rode the Mersey a couple of times.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 08 January, 2016, 01:55:49 pm
@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England.
But IME the weather is at its most changeable in April - probably necessitating more stopping and changing, and carrying more kit.  Less drizzly days, more four-seasons-in-one-day.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 08 January, 2016, 02:00:13 pm


@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England. In 2007, when Mrs. Wow and I did our LEJOG, there were some weather stations operated by Essex and Suffolk Water that didn't record any rain throughout the whole of April. We didn't experience any at all until we were on Arran, and then it was only 20 minutes or so. It rained all day when we went through Fort William and we had another wet afternoon on the East Coast.

I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers. April tends to be dry with extremes of temperature. Weather rhymes predate the Gregorian calendar, so refer to a period 11 days later.

February and March are generally the driest two months in southern UK. See http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gcr2nc3b7 click on Averages graphs, Rainfall for Woburn (nearest station to Milton Keynes). Click on Rainfall >= 1 mm (days) to see what are classified as wet days, these are pretty evenly spread throughout the year. February is on average the coldest, frostiest month of the year.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 08 January, 2016, 02:02:17 pm
Lol
Quote
The distance is roughly the equivalent of London to Edinburgh and return with ten times as many potholes on the way
I wonder how that has stood up over time.  My experience of British and French roads in general would suggest it's well on the way to reversed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 08 January, 2016, 02:43:14 pm
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week.  And if so, the rest of January. 
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 08 January, 2016, 02:51:14 pm
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week today.  And if so, the rest of January for the next week. 
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
FTFY  ;)
Remember, we all mostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 08 January, 2016, 02:55:16 pm
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!

How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 08 January, 2016, 02:55:53 pm
My earliest experiment in digital video sheds some light on Steve and fatigue. In 2001 he rode from London to Edinburgh and return, and a week later rode the Mersey Roads 24. He managed just over 360 miles in the Mersey, which is covered from 7.23 in. At 9.57 there's a shot of him crashed out at the Hodnet control. The quality of the video is terrible, quarter VGA and 15fps, but the incorporated stills are better definition.

 https://vimeo.com/72254029

I think the rider wearing fluorescent pink bootees is probably Hoppo, he wasn't well known at the time. He came to notice through riding with titanium bolts in his knee, or something like that. George Berwick also features, he's supposed to have met Tommy Godwin, and discussed his methods, according to Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 08 January, 2016, 03:03:33 pm
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week.  And if so, the rest of January. 
I must admit, I've grown increasingly uncomfortable supporting the whole thing really.
To be honest it scares me what he's looking to do, just from a fatigue and exhaustion perspective - not because of a danger to his health, but from a tiredness point of view being out there in all weathers on busy roads, chasing huge mileage totals. If his sole objective is the record, then he has to push so hard into regions he's never ever been before, and that just has to get so testing it's not true.

And Steve knows all about sleep dep.
I remember reading quite a long article he did for Arrivee some years back all about sleep in relation to endurance riding. He's had plenty of experience of it. Thank goodness.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 08 January, 2016, 03:08:29 pm
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!

How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.

If it aint on Strava the internet, it didn't happen.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Citizenfish on 08 January, 2016, 03:10:19 pm
Von Broad I think you have just described the year of almost every mile-eater that has gone before and has yet to come. Records are not easy by their very nature.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 08 January, 2016, 03:10:50 pm
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!

How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.

True.  But I can't see why it would ramp up by 15 miles per day today unless there was a hint of fitting it to reality involved. So it's possible that it was not retrospective but it seems unlikely.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 08 January, 2016, 03:25:12 pm
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!

How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.

True.  But I can't see why it would ramp up by 15 miles per day today unless there was a hint of fitting it to reality involved. So it's possible that it was not retrospective but it seems unlikely.

I must admit I had assumed it had come about due to mumblings on here and elsewhere that there wasn't a coherent plan. It's clear from messages on here that the AUK board were pressing for clarification from Steve's team. And therefore it's retrospective IMO.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 08 January, 2016, 03:26:56 pm
True.  But I can't see why it would ramp up by 15 miles per day today unless there was a hint of fitting it to reality involved. So it's possible that it was not retrospective but it seems unlikely.
+1
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 08 January, 2016, 03:36:33 pm
Retrospective or not it's a plan, it confirms he's still going for the record and it looks feasible if things go well for him.

Of course he may have bad days but hopefully these will be balanced out by good days, so I'm not going to look at the result of today and make snap judgments.

Hopefully jo can put the new schedule up (sorry, even more work) and then the armchair directeur sportif-ing can begin (I'll pass on that though).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 08 January, 2016, 03:52:00 pm
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week today.  And if so, the rest of January for the next week. 
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
FTFY  ;)
Remember, we all mostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.

Wonder how Steve plans his routes for the day on a given morning/night before, so that he makes sure he's slightly over target, rather than several miles under?  I guess he may do more of the short rides from home to make up any of the day's shortfall if necessary to make sure he's on track for req'd mpd.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 08 January, 2016, 04:00:50 pm
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week today.  And if so, the rest of January for the next week. 
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
FTFY  ;)
Remember, we all mostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.

Wonder how Steve plans his routes for the day on a given morning/night before, so that he makes sure he's slightly over target, rather than several miles under?  I guess he may do more of the short rides from home to make up any of the day's shortfall if necessary to make sure he's on track for req'd mpd.

His test day doing the bowl must have been in anticipation of doing some days like this, perhaps when the weather is bad.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: andyoxon on 08 January, 2016, 04:06:30 pm
His test day doing the bowl must have been in anticipation of doing some days like this, perhaps when the weather is bad.

The Bowl for top-ups...  though I guess he can't gain access later at night...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: clarion on 08 January, 2016, 04:30:47 pm
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week today.  And if so, the rest of January for the next week. 
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
FTFY  ;)
Remember, we all mostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.

Wonder how Steve plans his routes for the day on a given morning/night before, so that he makes sure he's slightly over target, rather than several miles under?  I guess he may do more of the short rides from home to make up any of the day's shortfall if necessary to make sure he's on track for req'd mpd.

I suppose Steve knows the distances of various roads and loops around the area, and just tots it up in his head.  There's no real way of knowing how far in advance he plans, or whether he just mounts up and plays it by ear.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 08 January, 2016, 05:52:11 pm
Rename the sub-forum.

"2016 Kurt Searvogel Record Attempt".

I wish I'd said that.

Oh, wait... (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87329.msg1969888#msg1969888)

Imitation is the most sincere form of flattery.
Repeating a good idea.

Apologies.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jack_P on 08 January, 2016, 07:39:58 pm
I was out for 100 miles in that sw wind yesterday. The fact he never cracked over 200 with that assistance dosent fill me with any hope.

Right now Steve is the official HAMR record holder having completed his first full attempt, OK he's going to be overhauled by Kurt, but he is still the age group record holder whatever. So where are the HAMR website headlines and plaudits, nothing I can remember on their Facebook page, or website. For $300 entry fee is expect at least that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pingu on 08 January, 2016, 08:31:28 pm
...Right now Steve is the official HAMR...

Has it been validated?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ian H on 08 January, 2016, 08:41:00 pm
...Right now Steve is the official HAMR...

Has it been validated?

The paperwork is being processed. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: MrDrem on 08 January, 2016, 10:41:36 pm
https://goo.gl/RBHtiS has now been updated to include Steve's latest plan, and a rolling average distance sheet and sheet.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: contango on 09 January, 2016, 03:55:12 am
It's good to see a set of targets. Now comes the point where we say that we wouldn't have done it like that!

I wouldn't have done it like that. There's no way in this world I could sustain anything like it...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 09 January, 2016, 06:14:34 am
It's good to see a set of targets. Now comes the point where we say that we wouldn't have done it like that!

I wouldn't have done it like that.




 ;D ;D
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: hillbilly on 09 January, 2016, 08:21:43 am
I think I would have been happier not knowing Steve's new schedule. It has strained my credulity to breaking point. I'm not going to comment on Steve's attempt any more, as I've nothing meaningful to say.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 09 January, 2016, 09:43:26 am
I think I would have been happier not knowing Steve's new schedule.
There is no schedule as far as I'm concerned, it's an illusion, it doesn't exist - he just has ride as many miles each day as is physically possible to stand any chance whatsoever. If the schedule says 205 then it's irrelevant because he needs 215, because there will be day us when something will get in the way - mainly the weather. He has to gain miles now and not lose them. One mile a day will do. Physically, I suppose it's possible, but he's still only human, not superman - although some people seem to think he is.       

Record or no record, I couldn't care less what it takes, however seemingly heroic it might be, big deal, for me [FWIW], I'm not happy encouraging somebody go into areas that I have a gut feeling they can't sustain. It's irresponsible as far as I'm concerned. Over this amount of time, it's got to sustained and it's got to be manageable - somebody's just proved the fact. We've all been watching it. It won't be long before Steve's in fantasy land. I just hope either he or members of the team won't allow him to push too far into that. His grit, determination and resilience is beyond question, and on those grounds I'd wager cash on him over most others any day of the week, but he's not quick enough in this endeavour. And that's sad to see, but true.
[/quote]

I'm not going to comment on Steve's attempt any more, as I've nothing meaningful to say.

Same here.



Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: jochta on 09 January, 2016, 11:14:20 am
Quote
Headwind and hassles that ate my riding time leave me with some catching up to do!

184 miles posted yesterday on Strava with that comment...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 09 January, 2016, 11:26:17 am
Steve has some bloody irritating habits. He's currently on a favourite route SW that usually takes him to Cirencester. Thing is, he passes about 40mins riding time from me. This is slightly too far away to be a quick pop-out ride to try to intercept him, especially when you add in the likelihood that I'll miss him anyway.

If I had 2 hours notice of his exact route it would be ideal for a spot of roadside cheering. Curse him!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Hummers on 09 January, 2016, 11:26:47 am
Blimey, just looked at the posts on the latter part of this thread.

I suppose the thread title prompts people to air their personal opinions but I can't help feeling what has been posted says more about the posters than it does about Steve's attempt.

Allez Steve!

May good luck and good days awheel be enjoyed in 2016, whatever the outcome of this epic challenge.

H




Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 09 January, 2016, 11:54:47 am


Allez Steve!

May good luck and good days awheel be enjoyed in 2016, whatever the outcome of this epic challenge.

H
[/quote]




PLUS ONE
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Shreds on 09 January, 2016, 01:11:45 pm
The large step changes up until May seem to make the task even more difficult.

Why not plan for one extra mile or two per day? 

Also can't quite fathom the lower summer mileages, but I suppose there must be a reason?

Keep plugging away nevertheless, Steve.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 09 January, 2016, 01:20:37 pm
Steve's new schedule is now displayable on http://gicentre.org/oytt/

Given the constraint of beating the record by a comfortable amount (to allow for contingencies), it looks right to me. A seasonal sine wave that maps his progress so far and minimises body-destroying Tommy miles in the summer.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 09 January, 2016, 01:38:54 pm
Steve has some bloody irritating habits. He's currently on a favourite route SW that usually takes him to Cirencester. Thing is, he passes about 40mins riding time from me. This is slightly too far away to be a quick pop-out ride to try to intercept him, especially when you add in the likelihood that I'll miss him anyway.

If I had 2 hours notice of his exact route it would be ideal for a spot of roadside cheering. Curse him!

I tried that sometime last year. With a very intermittent phone signal, it was very difficult to keep tabs on where he was. After a couple of hours rushing around north Essex trying to find him, I gave up. Checking on Strava later, I got within a couple of hundred yards of him with a good overtake, but he pulled a Crazy Ivan down some favourite back lane and the intercept was denied. Curse him!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Charlie Boy on 09 January, 2016, 03:22:04 pm
I am probably missing something but on the HAMR spreadsheet they have a total for Steve to 31 December (inclusive) of 26,918.5 miles.

The revised schedule on Steve's website for those months (8 Aug - 31 Dec) totals 27,860.5 miles.

Nearly 1,000 miles difference, and not in Steve's favour. Which means more 4.3 more miles per day (averaged out from 1 Jan- 7 Aug) if the HAMR spreadsheet figure is the one the attempt will be judged by, and a total of 50,231 from 1 Jan not 49,289 as the revised schedule is 942 miles short.

So per the new schedule the total will be 76,207.50 not 77,149.50.

Tarzan, if he rides 220 today as he has said he wants to, will total 76,066.

Hopefully someone will come along in a minute and tell me my maths is rubbish.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 09 January, 2016, 03:56:22 pm
Which spreadsheet are you referring to? Rather confusingly UMCA provide two, and the official one hasn't yet been formally released to the end of 2015. I am pretty confident that the official total for Steve's second attempt will be within 10 miles of 27,869 (which is my calculated total for the Aug 8-Dec 31st that corresponds with the official figures we have so far).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: SoreTween on 09 January, 2016, 03:59:20 pm
26,918.5 comes from the daily spreadsheet which should only be considered a guide.  The official results are definitive but even the latest of that has 3 days still marked as pending.

I expect there will be an update to the official results this week, that should resolve things.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Charlie Boy on 09 January, 2016, 04:00:35 pm
Ok, thanks.

Jo, it is this one http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/spreadsheet.php (http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/spreadsheet.php)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 09 January, 2016, 04:13:16 pm
Ok, thanks.

Jo, it is this one http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/spreadsheet.php (http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/spreadsheet.php)

The same site has Steve's target to tie with Godwin as 222.08 miles per day, while Jo has the target as 216.5 miles per day.

Which illustrates why Kurt was wise to aim for a comprehensive overshoot.

Even if his total is officially tinkered with, there can be no doubt he is the record holder.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: HK on 09 January, 2016, 07:03:00 pm
I think I would have been happier not knowing Steve's new schedule. It has strained my credulity to breaking point. I'm not going to comment on Steve's attempt any more, as I've nothing meaningful to say.
Plus 1
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 09 January, 2016, 09:33:02 pm
I am quite certain that Steve will beat his first years mileage.  Was it Matt  (or Hillbilly? ) who posted he would have to average 169 mls a day till August. Obviously with luck and tail winds plus support  (if Steve would accept ) better things could be possible.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: αdαmsκι on 10 January, 2016, 12:18:35 am
From Facebook. A picture says a 1000 words.

(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/12417936_1659807830934513_8635433652125693560_n.jpg?oh=5f482978467cd7ba269be0b1e7b17c6a&oe=5702C44E)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Hummers on 10 January, 2016, 10:34:22 am
From Facebook. A picture says a 1000 words.

(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/12417936_1659807830934513_8635433652125693560_n.jpg?oh=5f482978467cd7ba269be0b1e7b17c6a&oe=5702C44E)

 :thumbsup:

Hardly an image of a man in the doldrums, racked with self-doubt and despair, is it.

Allez Steve!

H
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 10 January, 2016, 12:48:59 pm
While lots of us here have spent a lot of time on the what-ifs, I don’t think even the most negative of posters has suggested that there is any self-doubt on Steve’s part.

Now that Kurt has finished, his achievement highlights the enormity of what Godwin accomplished: Kurt didn’t beat Godwin by that much really. Kurt’s total is also a reminder that if it hadn’t been for his leg injury and recovery, Steve’s total for the year would have been up there with Godiwn and Kurt.

The fact that exceeding the record remains within Steve’s reach and capability means that this thread has a long way to go.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 10 January, 2016, 01:56:22 pm
While lots of us here have spent a lot of time on the what-ifs, I don’t

The fact that exceeding the record remains within Steve’s reach and capability means that this thread has a long way to go.



Yes indeed, and I look forward to reading views from all of you
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Hummers on 10 January, 2016, 02:33:02 pm

The fact that exceeding the record remains within Steve’s reach and capability means that this thread has a long way to go.

Absolutely - and so does Steve.

It just seems to me that many on this sub-board are keen to write his attempt off. Threads on his days are tinged with posts of "Only xxx miles well that was not enough" and "I can't see how he can do this based on that" or " I would have thought he should have been managing...."

While lots of us here have spent a lot of time on the what-ifs, I don’t think even the most negative of posters has suggested that there is any self-doubt on Steve’s part.

Perhaps not and to be honest I have not read everything posted but I am sick of reading posts with a theme around damning his efforts with feint praise or even suggesting that he is in some way in denial (for example).

FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.

H
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 10 January, 2016, 02:36:11 pm
While lots of us here have spent a lot of time on the what-ifs, I don’t

The fact that exceeding the record remains within Steve’s reach and capability means that this thread has a long way to go.



Yes indeed, and I look forward to reading views from all of you

Encouraging last couple of days, but the record still looks too big an ask to me.

Yesterday Steve started at about 9.30am and it took him to past midnight to ride under 200 miles - 30 short of what's required.

He's made another post 9am start today, and I think it's good he may be establishing a daily rhythm.

But it's hard to see where the desperately needed miles above 200 are going to come from.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: PAC on 10 January, 2016, 02:58:29 pm
I think people are missing a point that Steve's projected monthly mileage are averages for the given month, rather than sudden step changes occurring at the 1st of each month....we're in early January - give him a chance and be supportive rather than writing his attempt off....I share Hummer's view on this :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 10 January, 2016, 03:25:32 pm
Perhaps not and to be honest I have not read everything posted but I am sick of reading posts with a theme around damning his efforts with feint praise or even suggesting that he is in some way in denial (for example).

FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.

H
Amen to that, Brother H.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 10 January, 2016, 03:32:52 pm
I read that as

FFS people, if you cannot support analyse his attempt in any way, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 10 January, 2016, 03:35:45 pm
There has indeed been lots of analysis and the upshot of it all is, whether you like it or not, that it’s far too early for anyone to write off the attempt, and it it will stay too early for quite some time.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 10 January, 2016, 03:36:49 pm
Let us know when you think it is the right time to start analysing Steve's attempt again.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: red marley on 10 January, 2016, 03:59:30 pm
After way too many pages of pointless bickering, these pages were beginning to calm down again. It would be nice if they could stay as thoughts on the record attempt rather than thoughts on the attitude of other posters on this thread.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 10 January, 2016, 04:18:12 pm
After way too many pages of pointless bickering, these pages were beginning to calm down again. It would be nice if they could stay as thoughts on the record attempt rather than thoughts on the attitude of other posters on this thread.

But Jo, that takes a maturity to accept the thoughts of other people as an acceptable offering in an open forum.
If you don't like other peoples's thought's [and lets face it, most of us don't in some shape or form], then you can disagree [I'm sure we'd all agree that's perfectly fine, that's the kind of stuff that goes in forums isn't it?], but why resort to personal attacks? You don't like it? - sorry, that's too bad.

Correct me if I'm wrong [and I'd appreciate a reference] but I cannot remember one post from anybody that is negative towards Steve as a person or in any way nasty and unkind, I cannot believe it's in evidence here, most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]........but the fact remains, people do have strong feelings about how things have/are panning out for him. And for some, its runs much deeper than others.

If you don't like the thread, and it's contents - don't read it. And if you don't like what's written - deal with it. I still can't understand why some people would resort to person attacks just because they don't like what's been written.

Steve will do his stuff anyway, regardless. And support him whole heartedly. But I also have 'current thoughts'...sorry, I just do.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 10 January, 2016, 04:27:40 pm
Correct me if I'm wrong [and I'd appreciate a reference] but I cannot remember one post from anybody that is negative towards Steve as a person or in any way nasty and unkind, I cannot believe it's in evidence here, most people either know him of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me mostly]........but the fact remains, people do have strong feelings about how things have/are panning out for him. And for some, its runs deeper than others.

If you don't like the thread, and it's contents - don't read it. And if you don't like what's written - deal with it. I still can't understand why some people would resort to person attacks just because they don't like what's been written.

Indeed.  The only personal attacks here have come from Steve's self-proclaimed "friends" barging in and telling people to fuck off.

I think Steve deserves better to be honest.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 10 January, 2016, 04:39:55 pm
One of the pleasures of marshalling a Espley on the Mersey Roads is being able to tell the rider's teams how their lad or lass is doing. The 100 mile sheets give an idea of progress, as do the 12 hours. It's possible to collate your own information, but easiest to ask a marshal or timekeeper.
You can tell who's gone off too fast and who's struggled during the night. Those of us from that tradition don't feel the need to micro-analyse performance, but to look at the trends. We also accept that there's more to the event than the winner, or a possible record.
How's Steve doing, and what will he do? are legitimate questions at the Mersey. But that's within the context of a sealed system, you just ride the 24.
This Year is unique because the resources to achieve it are dependent on the attention it commands while it's underway, and that's an ongoing thing. The various information streams are part of that. It's fascinating to see how the components of the connected whole fit together. Questioning whether Steve can get the record undermines the cottage industry that's built up around him.

But Steve is still the centre of this, and it's the Steve we used to expect to come past Espley at 1 hour intervals throughout the night, and LWAB and HK are still the people we can expect to get a cup of coffee off.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 10 January, 2016, 04:43:22 pm
Since the team gave us a new schedule with which to measure Steve's progress based on what's been achieved and what remains to be done, I'll withhold comment on that until the first significant waypoint on the 2016 calendar, which will be the end of this month. But I won't accede to any pressure to not comment unless it's along the lines of 'all's well in this, the best of all possible worlds'. It's obvious that Steve is facing a harder daily target than is ideal, and a month or so ago the incorrect impression was given by the team that his health was far from great, which prompted a lot of concerned - and perfectly appropriate - discussion.

I sincerely hope Steve can do it, but I'd be kidding myself if I didn't feel that things are not going as well as they should.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tigerrr on 10 January, 2016, 05:17:02 pm
I think this thread is actually really good. Both in terms of the subject - the magnificent and ongoing prodigious, awe inspiring effort, and the considered opinions expressed. It is the most genuinely interesting thread on YACF by a few thousand miles.
Unless I am completely mistaken all those commenting are cyclists with some experience of audax and most if not all have at some point ridden with Steve on various events over the years, and actively support him. It isn't tabloid or typical internet rubbish.
It is a thread about thoughts on the attempt not just a cheerleading thread. Some might wish otherwise and see thoughts outside applause as disloyal or undermining. Probably best for them to avoid the thread then and just post Go Steve.
The analysis here is pretty level headed, the conclusions and opinions intelligent.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Jaded on 10 January, 2016, 05:38:57 pm
Correct me if I'm wrong [and I'd appreciate a reference] but I cannot remember one post from anybody that is negative towards Steve as a person or in any way nasty and unkind, I cannot believe it's in evidence here, most people either know him of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me mostly]........but the fact remains, people do have strong feelings about how things have/are panning out for him. And for some, its runs deeper than others.

If you don't like the thread, and it's contents - don't read it. And if you don't like what's written - deal with it. I still can't understand why some people would resort to person attacks just because they don't like what's been written.

Indeed.  The only personal attacks here have come from Steve's self-proclaimed "friends" barging in and telling people to fuck off.

I think Steve deserves better to be honest.

You should go read page 67 again.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 10 January, 2016, 05:55:40 pm
Allez Steve!

You've got my support.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 10 January, 2016, 06:11:16 pm
... most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]
....
"most" being pretty key here.

Very different to all.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 10 January, 2016, 06:25:21 pm
... most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]
....
"most" being pretty key here.

Very different to all.

Are you suggesting that we have to know Steve personally before we can comment? Is that a standard we aim to apply to every thread?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 10 January, 2016, 06:31:58 pm
I was looking up Nim Carline on the net. He was a great 24 Hour rider, and Beryl Burton's employer. He used to go mountaineering with his friend Bob Maitland. Bob was in the 1948 Olympic Road Race, he finished 6th, and Britain was second team, so Bob got a Silver Medal. He died in France following a collapse in the main hall at the Semaine Federale at Verdun in 2010. Heather had crossed paths with him a few times the previous day, as he had little idea how to use a GPS.
It's interesting to wonder what might have happened if Bob had lived a couple of more years. The other Tommy Godwin might not have come to notice again. I looked for a film of the 1948 Road Race, and came up with a very good quality colour film, showing Bob in his prime, one for the Solihull CC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPkCQU8qKqo
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 10 January, 2016, 06:38:36 pm
Also remember that Steve's daily/monthy mileages are based on a target of 77,149.5 miles. That's 1073.5 miles further than Kurt went (caveat validation, for both).

Steve can use those 1000 miles as wiggle room for complete days missed, or just falling short of the daily target slightly,. whatever. Over the 219 days (since early Jan) it means he can ride, on average, about 4.9 miles short of his daily target(s) and still take the record.

Not suggesting he does, just he could.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 10 January, 2016, 06:46:37 pm
... most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]
....
"most" being pretty key here.

Very different to all.

Are you suggesting that we have to know Steve personally before we can comment? Is that a standard we aim to apply to every thread?
Not at all. Perhaps I should have quoted Von Broad's whole post ... To paraphrase:

He was saying that noone would post unkindly about Steve cos MOST know him and/or have ridden with him a fair bit.

Hence my reply. Hopefully that's clearer?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 10 January, 2016, 07:18:43 pm
... most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]
....
"most" being pretty key here.

Very different to all.

Are you suggesting that we have to know Steve personally before we can comment? Is that a standard we aim to apply to every thread?
Not at all. Perhaps I should have quoted Von Broad's whole post ... To paraphrase:

He was saying that noone would post unkindly about Steve cos MOST know him and/or have ridden with him a fair bit.

Hence my reply. Hopefully that's clearer?

Well, kind of. But I think that the criterion of knowing Steve is a red herring anyway. We are all observers, and we are all able to form opinions based on the data placed in the public domain. The accuracy of those opinions will be variable - they're opinions, FFS, and everyone's entitled to one and this is the place to express them. Opinions are divisive; if they weren't, there'd be no point in them. We could, of course, start another forum that Steve doesn't have access to and discuss the HAM'R challenge in pseudo-privacy, but I hardly think that's necessary or desirable.

The challenge is to allow others to have opinions that differ markedly from yours without taking it personally, or doing so on someone else's behalf, or responding with the intent to give offence. Something which we are generally quite good at on this forum, though the excellence occasionally lapses.

It's a discussion, not a negotiation. We aren't intending or attempting to arrive at a consensus.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Rainmaker on 10 January, 2016, 07:53:37 pm

Posted by: Exit Stage Left: Today at 06:31:58 pm 

I was looking up Nim Carline on the net. He was a great 24 Hour rider, and Beryl Burton's employer. He used to go mountaineering with his friend Bob Maitland.

See Yorkshire Post obituary for Norman (Nim) Carline, he cycled to the Himalayas with his friend Bob Metcalfe.   I was a friend of Nim and as far as I am aware he never went mountaineering with Bob Maitland. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 10 January, 2016, 08:00:14 pm
... most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]
....
"most" being pretty key here.

Very different to all.

Are you suggesting that we have to know Steve personally before we can comment? Is that a standard we aim to apply to every thread?
Not at all. Perhaps I should have quoted Von Broad's whole post ... To paraphrase:

He was saying that noone would post unkindly about Steve cos MOST know him and/or have ridden with him a fair bit.

Hence my reply. Hopefully that's clearer?

Please Mattc.....leaving semantics aside, I think you know what I was saying.
To paraphrase, and I'd prefer to paraphrase my own posts. ......posters here are not anti-Steve......it's insulting to think otherwise - weather 'most' or 'all', I'd be interested to see such personal defamation of any kind. People might not always not like what is posted [which is probably most of us to some point, isn't it?], but that's going to happen in a pubic forum such as this sometimes.
If this is not acceptable then the thread and sub-board should be closed down in the name of public excellence.

God forbid.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 10 January, 2016, 08:12:25 pm
...
The challenge is to allow others to have opinions that differ markedly from yours without taking it personally, or doing so on someone else's behalf, or responding with the intent to give offence. Something which we are generally quite good at on this forum, though the excellence occasionally lapses.
...

I agree with this Tim though from page 25 or so of this thread such excellence has been markedly absent from a very small minority of very aggressively vociferous individuals.   I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt but then, these are just my opinions.   Funny though, whenever I voice it, I get rounded on and sniped at by the thread bullies.

Blimey, just looked at the posts on the latter part of this thread.

I suppose the thread title prompts people to air their personal opinions but I can't help feeling what has been posted says more about the posters than it does about Steve's attempt.

Allez Steve!

May good luck and good days awheel be enjoyed in 2016, whatever the outcome of this epic challenge.

H

My sentiments exactly and similarly stated earlier in this thread.   

I note with some curiosity that H has not been flamed for stating his opinions.   

Correct me if I'm wrong [and I'd appreciate a reference] but I cannot remember one post from anybody that is negative towards Steve as a person or in any way nasty and unkind, I cannot believe it's in evidence here, most people either know him of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me mostly]........but the fact remains, people do have strong feelings about how things have/are panning out for him. And for some, its runs deeper than others.

If you don't like the thread, and it's contents - don't read it. And if you don't like what's written - deal with it. I still can't understand why some people would resort to person attacks just because they don't like what's been written.

Indeed.  The only personal attacks here have come from Steve's self-proclaimed "friends" barging in and telling people to fuck off.

I think Steve deserves better to be honest.

You should go read page 67 again.

Actually, the lack of excellence began about 53 or so pages back IMO which is also only one month ago but it's been regularly unpleasant in here since about then.   It took about 8 months to get ot 23 pages then one month to 76, and counting.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 10 January, 2016, 08:14:53 pm
Wasn't it Hummers' turn last year to be BBQ'd, surely a man needs a year off.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 10 January, 2016, 08:17:44 pm
Ah, I didn't know that we had a forum Guy Fawkes.   :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: zigzag on 10 January, 2016, 08:21:06 pm
some thoughts and facts from today's ride. i woke up at 5:50am, washed myself, prepared and had a breakfast, got my cycling kit on, did a quick tlc to a bike (tyres, chain, batteries in gps and lights) and left home at 7:10. that first 1h20m disappeared from the day unnoticeably. i chose my slowest/heaviest bike (which is comparable to Steve's sojourn) then rode to whitstable (92km) with with a fine group of friends where we had a full english breakfast that took us 50min (could have turned around in 30min if we were in a rush). then we all rode back to london, completing 183km(114mi) in 9hrs at 23.6kph(14.7mph - roughly Steve's average speed) and i was home at 4:10pm. i had to have some food again.
let's assume the food was ready and it took me an optimistic 20min to eat and get out of the house. i would need to ride another 8hrs, all in the dark, and be back home half past midnight with 213 miles for the day - have some food, quick wash and hopefully be in bed by 1:20am,  to sleep only 4.5 hours and do the same thing tomorrow.. day after.. week after week.. for the next 7 months and with no margin for error!

how is that possible/sustainable? have i missed anything obvious?

best of luck to Steve in riding more miles than on his first attempt.


p.s. i've ridden with Steve before, if that makes any difference :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Von Broad on 10 January, 2016, 08:36:16 pm
some thoughts and facts from today's ride. i woke up at 5:50am, washed myself, prepared and had a breakfast, got my cycling kit on, did a quick tlc to a bike (tyres, chain, batteries in gps and lights) and left home at 7:10. that first 1h20m disappeared from the day unnoticeably. i chose my slowest/heaviest bike (which is comparable to Steve's sojourn) then rode to whitstable (92km) with with a fine group of friends where we had a full english breakfast that took us 50min (could have turned around in 30min if we were in a rush). then we all rode back to london, completing 183km(114mi) in 9hrs at 23.6kph(14.7mph - roughly Steve's average speed) and i was home at 4:10pm. i had to have some food again.
let's assume the food was ready and it took me an optimistic 20min to eat and get out of the house. i would need to ride another 8hrs, all in the dark, and be back home half past midnight with 213 miles for the day - have some food, quick wash and hopefully be in bed by 1:20am,  to sleep only 4.5 hours and do the same thing tomorrow.. day after.. week after week.. for the next 7 months and with no margin for error!

how is that possible/sustainable? have i missed anything obvious?

Yes, what you've missed is pretty obvious - you need a Dame with a van :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 10 January, 2016, 08:43:39 pm
some thoughts and facts from today's ride. i woke up at 5:50am, washed myself, prepared and had a breakfast, got my cycling kit on, did a quick tlc to a bike (tyres, chain, batteries in gps and lights) and left home at 7:10. that first 1h20m disappeared from the day unnoticeably. i chose my slowest/heaviest bike (which is comparable to Steve's sojourn) then rode to whitstable (92km) with with a fine group of friends where we had a full english breakfast that took us 50min (could have turned around in 30min if we were in a rush). then we all rode back to london, completing 183km(114mi) in 9hrs at 23.6kph(14.7mph - roughly Steve's average speed) and i was home at 4:10pm. i had to have some food again.
let's assume the food was ready and it took me an optimistic 20min to eat and get out of the house. i would need to ride another 8hrs, all in the dark, and be back home half past midnight with 213 miles for the day - have some food, quick wash and hopefully be in bed by 1:20am,  to sleep only 4.5 hours and do the same thing tomorrow.. day after.. week after week.. for the next 7 months and with no margin for error!

how is that possible/sustainable? have i missed anything obvious?

best of luck to Steve in riding more miles than on his first attempt.


p.s. i've ridden with Steve before, if that makes any difference :)

One day last June I got up at a similar time, put my most aerodynamic bike in the back of the car, drove for an hour down to Alton on the A31, and started riding just before 7:30, doing circuits on the A31 all day. 

I didn't stop for breakfast, or lunch, or anything at all, other than once for about 30 seconds to pick up new bottles.  It wasn't a very scenic route, it rained a bit in the morning and all I had by way of interaction all day was the odd word with someone who passed me or who I passed - plus a few cheers from friends or helpers of friends. 

Just before 7:30pm, I got the shout from a timekeeper to stop.  I was absolutely shattered, but I'd done 257 miles (which was less than I'd hoped but that's not relevant).  I limped back the 10 miles to Alton and, after chatting to some people, eating and having a shower, drove home and was in bed by 10pm

I couldn't do it again the next day, mainly because I'd wrung every last drop out of my legs in the last two hours, to make sure I got over 250.  But if I had taken it a little bit easier all day, not upped my effort in the last two hours, and even had a couple of short food breaks, I might still have managed c.213 miles in 12 hours while leaving my body in shape to repeat the exercise, and having enough time for 8 hours in bed.

If I was ever going to do a one year time trial (which I am not) that is how a lot of it would have to look. 

PS I've ridden with Steve from time to time, discussed his plans with him before he started and my company was one of his first sponsors!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on 10 January, 2016, 08:44:06 pm
I don’t think you have missed anything, zigzag.

Given that it has been difficult to identify any change in strategy (location, routes, transfers) that is both practical and likely to be effective, the hope is that his speed will increase. Much of last year was spent thus, as far as I can tell:

- first part of the year: paying the price of lack of initial fitness
- injury and recovery
- impaired recovery and later concerns re diet and its effects as Steve tried to reduce stopped time by eating on the move

Taking a positive view, he has now got past that lot (still managing to do 65,000 miles), and is capable of increasing his daily distances.

So it is too early to call it.




Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 10 January, 2016, 08:53:35 pm
I have been musing over the challenge that Steve faces and wish him all the best and want him to bring the record home!

Steve's biggest challenge is speeding up. The speed line he is crossing is where wind resistance takes over from road resistance as the biggest enemy. By my estimates he needs to increase his power by 50% to achieve the speed required to do the distance in the same time he is riding now. The main reason for this is that wind resistance does not increase in a linear manner, it increases with square of the speed. Steve has shown very flat power values with little variation day to day. For those of us who have done TTs you know how hard it is to ride at 1mph extra, 3 is a very hard ask.

I am rooting for Steve, but everything I have done in cycling tells me that this is very very hard. It will significantly increase the physical strain and he will need to eat about 25% extra.

All the best Steve  :thumbsup:

You are in a hard place.

BB
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 10 January, 2016, 09:58:38 pm
Blimey, just looked at the posts on the latter part of this thread.

I suppose the thread title prompts people to air their personal opinions but I can't help feeling what has been posted says more about the posters than it does about Steve's attempt.

FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.

:(
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 10 January, 2016, 10:07:56 pm
...
The challenge is to allow others to have opinions that differ markedly from yours without taking it personally, or doing so on someone else's behalf, or responding with the intent to give offence. Something which we are generally quite good at on this forum, though the excellence occasionally lapses.
...

I agree with this Tim though from page 25 or so of this thread such excellence has been markedly absent from a very small minority of very aggressively vociferous individuals.   I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt but then, these are just my opinions.   Funny though, whenever I voice it, I get rounded on and sniped at by the thread bullies.

I don't see it quite like that. I see a range of opinions from those who think Steve now has no chance, via those who think he has a chance but it's bloody tight, to those who won't countenance any suggestion that he might not do it. The two extremes of that range are the purely evidence-based versus the purely faith-based opinions, one with no emotional attachment and the other with lots, and they don't sit happily together so it gets a bit fractious. But all are valid opinions and have every right to be expressed. We just need to be a bit better at playing the ball, not the player - but that doesn't mean we'll agree. At least, not until it's indisputable one way or the other!
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 10 January, 2016, 10:19:32 pm
I don't see it quite like that. I see a range of opinions from those who think Steve now has no chance, via those who think he has a chance but it's bloody tight, to those who won't countenance any suggestion that he might not do it. The two extremes of that range are the purely evidence-based versus the purely faith-based opinions, one with no emotional attachment and the other with lots, and they don't sit happily together so it gets a bit fractious. But all are valid opinions and have every right to be expressed. We just need to be a bit better at playing the ball, not the player - but that doesn't mean we'll agree. At least, not until it's indisputable one way or the other!

That's exactly how I see it. 

Putting my cards on the table, I'm in the evidence rather than faith camp and am now about 95% of the view that he has no chance to 5% that he has a chance but it's very tight.  That doesn't mean I wouldn't be absolutely delighted if he did, just I think it is too hard now to be realistic.  And because I think it is too hard, I believe the best advice to give him would be to stop and not risk his health in what looks like a lost cause.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 10 January, 2016, 10:27:56 pm
I have been musing over the challenge that Steve faces and wish him all the best and want him to bring the record home!

Steve's biggest challenge is speeding up. The speed line he is crossing is where wind resistance takes over from road resistance as the biggest enemy. By my estimates he needs to increase his power by 50% to achieve the speed required to do the distance in the same time he is riding now. The main reason for this is that wind resistance does not increase in a linear manner, it increases with square of the speed. Steve has shown very flat power values with little variation day to day. For those of us who have done TTs you know how hard it is to ride at 1mph extra, 3 is a very hard ask.

I am rooting for Steve, but everything I have done in cycling tells me that this is very very hard. It will significantly increase the physical strain and he will need to eat about 25% extra.

All the best Steve  :thumbsup:

You are in a hard place.

BB

I'd say you'd be about right. Est power values from Strava are in the 120w range which ime is about right for his speed. If Steve was to increase his output to around 180w I can see him easily getting upto around the 17-18mph mark, and this - I think - would still be a sustainable output to hold. Might be worth investing in a Powertap wheel...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 10 January, 2016, 10:41:13 pm
Just a point for those mentioning "page numbers".
We don't all have the same number of posts per page.  Page numbers just don't work.
For example.  I am posting this on page 192.  (For me).

Better to refer to " post XXX" or "post XXX onwards" or whatever.

Hugs
Basil
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 10 January, 2016, 10:42:23 pm
Putting my cards on the table, there are, in my opinion, those who have decided already that it is impossible now so they have taken a hard line stance saying that Steve will fail, Steve is wrong in what he is doing, etc., etc. without letting the man finish his tilt.    A number of destructive side issues arose from this, for instance about PR and about funding.   All these things seem designed to me to undermine the attempt.     

As Wowbagger said some pages ago, it's not binary.  Yup.   There are so many metaphorical and actual 'drunks on mopeds' to safely negotiate so it's far from clear cut.   However I choose to analyse it, and I have done so, I keep my countenance on what I might think simply because whilst Steve thinks that he can still do it I will back him all the way.   He deserves respect and support.   Hell, he's earned it.

That, in a nutshell, is my point of view and I'd rather not say any more on this thread now.   

Cheers Basil for that.   Just go back to December 11th ...    ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: LMT on 10 January, 2016, 10:51:38 pm
Putting my thoughts on the table is this:-

This is the ''Current thoughts on the record attempt'' where people can come and comment on the record attempt - which is exactly what has happened. People may not like what is being posted but telling people to fuck off and coming out with snide remarks ain't the done thing.

By all means disagree, but don't get personal.

And my current thought is this:-

Steve is currently at 180 miles which is below plan, based on his previous rides I'll surmise that this attempt will fail. He's already cemented himself as the fourth best cyclist ever when it comes to yearly milage and trying to best that imo is a lost cause. It's the record or bust.

Knock it on the head now, rest, regroup, train, look at other bikes, and have another attempt (if you wish) come the Spring. It *looks* like that winter is finally rearing it's head which will only make things more difficult over the next few weeks.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Basil on 10 January, 2016, 10:56:56 pm

Cheers Basil for that.   Just go back to December 11th ...    ;)

Oh must I?  What? Till I throw a six or something?  :(
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Grampa on 10 January, 2016, 10:58:01 pm
Perhaps, to get an expert opinion on Steve's chances, we should get a Book
maker to list this endeavour.  They may never have ridden a racehorse (or a TdF bike) or kicked a ball but they do seem to do quite a good job of working out odds for anything.  Some might regard evens as a chance to make easy money whereas others, I gather  would only be tempted by longer odds. (I'm not a gambler, by the way.)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 11 January, 2016, 12:09:47 am
I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt

Really?  You think some people want Steve to fail so they're trying to bring that about by posting on YACF?  Really really? 

Sorry but that's just ridiculous.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: nextSibling on 11 January, 2016, 12:35:14 am
All these things seem designed to me to undermine the attempt.

Blimey. Seriously?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 11 January, 2016, 12:48:16 am
We've been through a lot of stages in this journey:
Initial fascination with Steve's challenge;
Euphoria at the attention from the media;
Anger at Kurt for usurping Steve's idea, and he was a cheat;
Mass interest from Strava;
Euphoria at a Guardian article;
More anger at Kurt for being a Yank, and probably celebrating like the Ryder Cup team if he gets the record;
Steve gets hit by a moped;
Steve rides a recumbent trike, so Kurt can't be criticised for a recumbent;
Steve gets back on the Raleigh, so he's 'keeping it real'. Steve is praised for an 'Audax' approach, in contrast to Kurt, who's obviously a cheat;
Steve gets really slow, so he restarts. Kurt has health problems too;
Steve recovers and does PBP, the Autumn weather is kind and Steve picks up pace;
Kurt closes in on the record;
Steve gets his diet changed, and his pace drops;
Kurt gets close to record by enlisting other riders on closed circuit;
Steve fans realise that he can't get the record by riding in an Audax style.
Kurt and Alicia get record and are best thing since sliced bread.
Steve can now use any method he likes to try to attain record, but continues to ride Fenland loop on a Raleigh Sojourn, which to some people is still the best thing since sliced bread.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: crowriver on 11 January, 2016, 01:47:34 am
Good report here from NPR, the nearest the US has to a BBC type broadcaster. Nice balanced story praising Kurt and Alicia but also mentions Steve.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/09/462402664/1-year-more-than-75-000-miles-cyclist-breaks-76-year-old-record?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160109 (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/09/462402664/1-year-more-than-75-000-miles-cyclist-breaks-76-year-old-record?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160109)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Aunt Maud on 11 January, 2016, 04:43:03 am
I'll just wait until the end of this monumental effort by Steve, and when that comes, I still won't post a comment about how Steve set about riding his pushbike much further than I could ever contemplate and so much further than anyone else on this forum.

I am, however, enjoying the entertainment provided by the "usual suspects" very muchly, so please in the meantime carry on.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 January, 2016, 06:58:28 am
I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt

Really?  You think some people want Steve to fail so they're trying to bring that about by posting on YACF?  Really really? 

Sorry but that's just ridiculous.
Which bit is ridiculous? (just so we can be really really clear!)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mustgettaller on 11 January, 2016, 07:26:15 am
I am, however, enjoying the entertainment provided by the "usual suspects" very muchly, so please in the meantime carry on.

Likewise - "Gets popcorn out." applies when I visit this thread. :)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: fussballclub on 11 January, 2016, 07:34:56 am
^ Here we go. Mr. Elan valley mini pork pie!

 Leave this discussion immediately.

 ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 11 January, 2016, 07:49:13 am
Putting my cards on the table, there are, in my opinion, those who have decided already that it is impossible now so they have taken a hard line stance saying that Steve will fail, Steve is wrong in what he is doing, etc., etc. without letting the man finish his tilt.    A number of destructive side issues arose from this, for instance about PR and about funding.   All these things seem designed to me to undermine the attempt.     

As Wowbagger said some pages ago, it's not binary.  Yup.   There are so many metaphorical and actual 'drunks on mopeds' to safely negotiate so it's far from clear cut.   However I choose to analyse it, and I have done so, I keep my countenance on what I might think simply because whilst Steve thinks that he can still do it I will back him all the way.   He deserves respect and support.   Hell, he's earned it.

That, in a nutshell, is my point of view and I'd rather not say any more on this thread now.   

Cheers Basil for that.   Just go back to December 11th ...    ;)

Polar,
It would be really helpful if, when you wanted to make a criticism of something, you made it specific to a particular poster and, ideally, a specific post.  Otherwise it's really not that clear what you are objecting to. 
For example, your comment about undermining Steve is one that I also find ridiculous, but if you were able to cite specific comments which do that, it would help others to see if there was anything in it.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 11 January, 2016, 07:59:24 am
I have been musing over the challenge that Steve faces and wish him all the best and want him to bring the record home!

Steve's biggest challenge is speeding up. The speed line he is crossing is where wind resistance takes over from road resistance as the biggest enemy. By my estimates he needs to increase his power by 50% to achieve the speed required to do the distance in the same time he is riding now. The main reason for this is that wind resistance does not increase in a linear manner, it increases with square of the speed. Steve has shown very flat power values with little variation day to day. For those of us who have done TTs you know how hard it is to ride at 1mph extra, 3 is a very hard ask.

I am rooting for Steve, but everything I have done in cycling tells me that this is very very hard. It will significantly increase the physical strain and he will need to eat about 25% extra.

All the best Steve  :thumbsup:

You are in a hard place.

BB

I'd say you'd be about right. Est power values from Strava are in the 120w range which ime is about right for his speed. If Steve was to increase his output to around 180w I can see him easily getting upto around the 17-18mph mark, and this - I think - would still be a sustainable output to hold. Might be worth investing in a Powertap wheel...

My experience is that the Strava est power numbers read low.  Steve is most likely putting out 150+W if it is saying 120. 
I don't think he will be able to up that significantly, if at all. Looking at power files from people in the Transcontinental, and my own from PBP, you see people, after the first day, averaging from 100-150W. Even the guy who was leading the TCR for much of the way was down to 100W by the half way point.
Steve's big problem is that he isn't using his power to create speed and distance as effectively as Kurt.
That is because he
1. Is not aero enough
2. Has done too much riding on hilly lanes rather than what Rocco used to call 'proper roads'.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 11 January, 2016, 08:18:21 am
... and I'd rather not say any more on this thread now.   
...

Polar,
It would be really helpful if, when you wanted to make a criticism of something, you made it specific to a particular poster and, ideally, a specific post.  Otherwise it's really not that clear what you are objecting to. 
For example, your comment about undermining Steve is one that I also find ridiculous, but if you were able to cite specific comments which do that, it would help others to see if there was anything in it.

You nearly got me there.

If you genuinely read the posts and cannot see it then hey ho.   We will have to agree to differ on our interpretations of people's postings.   

I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis.   Respect costs nothing but is priceless.     
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 11 January, 2016, 08:22:43 am
^^^^So far off topic...

Apologies as I have not caught up over the last few days .... Has there been more use of the bowl, or has Steve been on roads?   Any signs of increased mileage or change of approach? Have any car transfers happened?  Is he hitting the January targets?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 11 January, 2016, 08:24:28 am
Steve was on the road until midnight again, which may be a sensible thing as the later starts will avoid the deepest frosts in the days to come. What's not so encouraging was that it was for "only" 197.5 miles.

I do think modern traffic conditions mitigate against a successful attempt by anyone in the UK nowadays, whatever their ability.  Godwin's ability to utilise fast relatively empty  roads like the A1 whilst drafting must have helped enormously with his mileage. Similarly Kurt was able to use relatively quiet (and flat) roads. Steve using say the A14 these days isn't such an attractive proposition. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ElyDave on 11 January, 2016, 08:29:03 am
I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt

Really?  You think some people want Steve to fail so they're trying to bring that about by posting on YACF?  Really really? 

Sorry but that's just ridiculous.
Which bit is ridiculous? (just so we can be really really clear!)


Pretty much this entire thread to be honest. 

It's turned into more of a willy-waving contest that anything vaguely resembling a debate, even of those with diametrically opposed ideas.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ningishzidda on 11 January, 2016, 08:30:58 am
I see nothing overly anomalous about Steve’s power figures. The bike has bits and pieces stuck out everywhere and Steve’s attire is not a skin-suit.
I’m not exactly ‘aerodynamic’ on my Audaxy bike, which gives figures of 75 W at 12.5 mph, 115 W at 15mph and 180 W at 18 mph.

MY Shiv gives 20 mph for 180W input into the cranks.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: rafletcher on 11 January, 2016, 08:40:04 am
^^^^So far off topic...

Apologies as I have not caught up over the last few days .... Has there been more use of the bowl, or has Steve been on roads?   Any signs of increased mileage or change of approach? Have any car transfers happened?  Is he hitting the January targets?

Bowl - once as a test.
Roads - Mainly.
The rest - No (or  "Not Yet" if you're an optimist)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 11 January, 2016, 08:44:32 am
Steve was on the road until midnight again, which may be a sensible thing as the later starts will avoid the deepest frosts in the days to come. What's not so encouraging was that it was for "only" 197.5 miles.

I do think modern traffic conditions mitigate against a successful attempt by anyone in the UK nowadays, whatever their ability.  Godwin's ability to utilise fast relatively empty  roads like the A1 whilst drafting must have helped enormously with his mileage. Similarly Kurt was able to use relatively quiet (and flat) roads. Steve using say the A14 these days isn't such an attractive proposition.

It depends on the time of the week.  For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country.  It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons.   Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 11 January, 2016, 09:00:55 am
You nearly got me there.

If you genuinely read the posts and cannot see it then hey ho.   We will have to agree to differ on our interpretations of people's postings.   

I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis.   Respect costs nothing but is priceless.     

Most people would think that "ridiculous" is a perfectly acceptable word to use in almost any situation.  I don't see anything unpleasant about it at all.  Do you, PB, think it is acceptable for someone here to tell people they disagree with to fuck off?  That has been done twice already.  I'm afraid the hate and unpleasantness is all coming from one side.  They simply can't stand the facts of Steve's challenge being discussed and analysed because they perceive it as somehow disloyal - a strange stance to take on a discussion forum.

BTW, could the reason you are unwilling / unable to quote any posts that are "deliberately trying to undermine Steve's attempt" be  because they don't exist?  Those making this assertion before have repeatedly been asked to quote such posts but always declined.  In any decent forum (which this one undoubtedly is) the etiquette is "quote it or it didn't happen".  I can't see any other way you can have a meaningful discussion.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Legs on 11 January, 2016, 09:08:20 am
It depends on the time of the week.  For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country.  It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons.   Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.
But Frank, there are other things, such as event signage and the presence of other cyclists on the road, that greatly enhance drivers' awareness of the presence of riders.  I've felt pretty safe racing the E2 courses (though the spearhead sliproads are always a bit scary), but would never dream of riding on the A11 or A14 recreationally!

I wish those bloody persistent knockers of Steve's gargantuan efforts would bugger off and crawl under a stone too.
FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.

Anyways, I don't like being told to b*gger off, nor to f*ck off, because of some perceived disloyalty to Steve - I thought YACF was rather better than that - so I'll just watch this one from the sidelines from now on.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 11 January, 2016, 09:11:49 am
Steve was on the road until midnight again, which may be a sensible thing as the later starts will avoid the deepest frosts in the days to come. What's not so encouraging was that it was for "only" 197.5 miles.

I do think modern traffic conditions mitigate against a successful attempt by anyone in the UK nowadays, whatever their ability.  Godwin's ability to utilise fast relatively empty  roads like the A1 whilst drafting must have helped enormously with his mileage. Similarly Kurt was able to use relatively quiet (and flat) roads. Steve using say the A14 these days isn't such an attractive proposition.

It depends on the time of the week.  For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country.  It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons.   Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.

Hi Frank,

Amid the interpersonal posts that are getting a bit dull - Im finding some of your posts really interesting. 
How come that stretch of road is so fast?  Is it sheltered or just nicely undulating or what?   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ElyDave on 11 January, 2016, 09:22:42 am
Steve was on the road until midnight again, which may be a sensible thing as the later starts will avoid the deepest frosts in the days to come. What's not so encouraging was that it was for "only" 197.5 miles.

I do think modern traffic conditions mitigate against a successful attempt by anyone in the UK nowadays, whatever their ability.  Godwin's ability to utilise fast relatively empty  roads like the A1 whilst drafting must have helped enormously with his mileage. Similarly Kurt was able to use relatively quiet (and flat) roads. Steve using say the A14 these days isn't such an attractive proposition.

It depends on the time of the week.  For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country.  It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons.   Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.



Hi Frank,

Amid the interpersonal posts that are getting a bit dull - Im finding some of your posts really interesting. 
How come that stretch of road is so fast?  Is it sheltered or just nicely undulating or what?

Very flat, very straight with few roundabouts and pretty good surface.  Also reasonably sheltered. But IMO possibly a bit risky other than "out of hours".  The general problem I find in the Fens is exposure to wind, with most of the roads sitting higher than surrounding fields (which sunk as they drained) and sparse hedge coverage in some areas.

That said, the 12 miles into a SW could easily be 12 miles of following wind with the right planning.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 January, 2016, 09:31:58 am
BTW, could the reason you are unwilling / unable to quote any posts that are "deliberately trying to undermine Steve's attempt" be  because they don't exist?
Plenty of people think the current attempt is doomed (some have given logical reasons, some have made their concern for Steve clear). It's hardly surprising when they make many posts that discourage the current attempt.

(There are also posts that IMO are just trolling, or just pessimistic with no constructive content; but I accept that these exist in a grey area, and you/I/PB will rarely come to agreement on them, no matter how much quoting we do! )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 11 January, 2016, 09:48:01 am
Steve was on the road until midnight again, which may be a sensible thing as the later starts will avoid the deepest frosts in the days to come. What's not so encouraging was that it was for "only" 197.5 miles.

I do think modern traffic conditions mitigate against a successful attempt by anyone in the UK nowadays, whatever their ability.  Godwin's ability to utilise fast relatively empty  roads like the A1 whilst drafting must have helped enormously with his mileage. Similarly Kurt was able to use relatively quiet (and flat) roads. Steve using say the A14 these days isn't such an attractive proposition.

It depends on the time of the week.  For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country.  It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons.   Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.

Hi Frank,

Amid the interpersonal posts that are getting a bit dull - Im finding some of your posts really interesting. 
How come that stretch of road is so fast?  Is it sheltered or just nicely undulating or what?

It is debated endlessly on the time trialling forum and no-one knows why. But firstly it's a dual carriageway hence you get help from passing traffic. This counts for a lot.
Secondly, while it rolls up and down, there are not big hills to destroy your momentum.
Thirdly, the tarmac is smooth.
However the first three apply to lots of UK roads. The tarmac here does seem to be fast. One theory is that, as the other really fast bit is near Hull, all the trucks going to the ports roll it flat!
The disadvantage is that it is very exposed so not worth going to on a windy day.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 11 January, 2016, 09:50:01 am
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis.   Respect costs nothing but is priceless.     

Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously.  You then call for more respect.  Now I've heard it all.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 11 January, 2016, 09:52:15 am
It depends on the time of the week.  For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country.  It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons.   Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.
But Frank, there are other things, such as event signage and the presence of other cyclists on the road, that greatly enhance drivers' awareness of the presence of riders.  I've felt pretty safe racing the E2 courses (though the spearhead sliproads are always a bit scary), but would never dream of riding on the A11 or A14 recreationally!
Understand that, but Steve could go along and ride while there is a TT on. That would give him perhaps a dozen shots at it per year with other riders and signs. 
Also, I agree it gets a bit hairy from 8:30am onwards but until, say 7:30, it's pretty quiet. 

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 January, 2016, 10:02:13 am
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis.   Respect costs nothing but is priceless.     

Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously.  You then call for more respect.  Now I've heard it all.
I think I've addressed this in my post (n-2).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 11 January, 2016, 10:21:00 am
Some thing I thought of at the start of the attempt was that most of us know a 20-50 mile looped section near to us that is 'fast'.   Many of us also know 4 or 5 of these that we would use to go 'fast' depending on the wind and weather.   I have a normal 'fast; 40 mile route that is great, but it no longer becomes 'fast' with certain wind directions as the really long exposed sections would become a slog instead of being 25-30mph with very little effort

I have been surprised that Steve hasn't used many fast loops and has instead gone with 'point to point' or 'out and backs'.  When he has used roads near me (quite often) I have been impressed that he has used a number of the 'fast roads' to pass through (which shows how much road knowledge he has stored up top) but he has then strayed out of the area onto roads that I think are a real slog to get towards his end destination.... and after looking back at the stats for those days his pace has plummeted after he left the area.

I would like to see his team ask local riders to suggest some 5-30 mile loops that are fast in certain wind directions.
I am not an experienced rider but I could easily give 3 local loops, each favoring a different prevailing wind,  that are much faster than what Steve rides when he comes to my area.  Some of you lot must have an absolute encyclopedic knowledge of your local area.  The trick would be to look at which way the wind was from Milton Keynes...then use that as a tail wind to head towards a recommended loop that also favored that wind direction ...that way he gets a boost there, then gets a favored wind on the loop.   Then maybe ask for a car transfer home too.

If there was a database of maybe 10-20 routes built up that are within 20-30 miles of Steves home then he could trial them and chose each day based on the wind direction, then head to that loop and get some cheap, fast miles in.   Once a network of these loops was built the money in the bank could be used to have food provided for Steve in that area and maybe find a local sports physio to provide some massage at the start and finish?

Maybe this has been looked into and ruled out or its just not how Steve wants to go.   For me that's the only way I could see someone in this country sustaining a crack at this effort and keeping the average speed up.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Frank9755 on 11 January, 2016, 10:50:43 am
Some thing I thought of at the start of the attempt was that most of us know a 20-50 mile looped section near to us that is 'fast'.   Many of us also know 4 or 5 of these that we would use to go 'fast' depending on the wind and weather.   I have a normal 'fast; 40 mile route that is great, but it no longer becomes 'fast' with certain wind directions as the really long exposed sections would become a slog instead of being 25-30mph with very little effort

I have been surprised that Steve hasn't used many fast loops and has instead gone with 'point to point' or 'out and backs'.  When he has used roads near me (quite often) I have been impressed that he has used a number of the 'fast roads' to pass through (which shows how much road knowledge he has stored up top) but he has then strayed out of the area onto roads that I think are a real slog to get towards his end destination.... and after looking back at the stats for those days his pace has plummeted after he left the area.

I would like to see his team ask local riders to suggest some 5-30 mile loops that are fast in certain wind directions.
I am not an experienced rider but I could easily give 3 local loops, each favoring a different prevailing wind,  that are much faster than what Steve rides when he comes to my area.  Some of you lot must have an absolute encyclopedic knowledge of your local area.  The trick would be to look at which way the wind was from Milton Keynes...then use that as a tail wind to head towards a recommended loop that also favored that wind direction ...that way he gets a boost there, then gets a favored wind on the loop.   Then maybe ask for a car transfer home too.

If there was a database of maybe 10-20 routes built up that are within 20-30 miles of Steves home then he could trial them and chose each day based on the wind direction, then head to that loop and get some cheap, fast miles in.   Once a network of these loops was built the money in the bank could be used to have food provided for Steve in that area and maybe find a local sports physio to provide some massage at the start and finish?

Maybe this has been looked into and ruled out or its just not how Steve wants to go.   For me that's the only way I could see someone in this country sustaining a crack at this effort and keeping the average speed up.

There is such a database, built up over almost 100 years, by thousands of cyclists looking for fast roads. It's called the list of time trial courses. 
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Arry-R on 11 January, 2016, 10:52:47 am
Some thing I thought of at the start of the attempt was that most of us know a 20-50 mile looped section near to us that is 'fast'.   Many of us also know 4 or 5 of these that we would use to go 'fast' depending on the wind and weather.   I have a normal 'fast; 40 mile route that is great, but it

Maybe this has been looked into and ruled out or its just not how Steve wants to go.   For me that's the only way I could see someone in this country sustaining a crack at this effort and keeping the average speed up.




I am pretty certain that the TEAM has but believe Steve wishes to get the record 'HIS WAY '
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on 11 January, 2016, 10:54:32 am
Some thing I thought of at the start of the attempt was that most of us know a 20-50 mile looped section near to us that is 'fast'.   Many of us also know 4 or 5 of these that we would use to go 'fast' depending on the wind and weather.   I have a normal 'fast; 40 mile route that is great, but it no longer becomes 'fast' with certain wind directions as the really long exposed sections would become a slog instead of being 25-30mph with very little effort

I have been surprised that Steve hasn't used many fast loops and has instead gone with 'point to point' or 'out and backs'.  When he has used roads near me (quite often) I have been impressed that he has used a number of the 'fast roads' to pass through (which shows how much road knowledge he has stored up top) but he has then strayed out of the area onto roads that I think are a real slog to get towards his end destination.... and after looking back at the stats for those days his pace has plummeted after he left the area.

I would like to see his team ask local riders to suggest some 5-30 mile loops that are fast in certain wind directions.
I am not an experienced rider but I could easily give 3 local loops, each favoring a different prevailing wind,  that are much faster than what Steve rides when he comes to my area.  Some of you lot must have an absolute encyclopedic knowledge of your local area.  The trick would be to look at which way the wind was from Milton Keynes...then use that as a tail wind to head towards a recommended loop that also favored that wind direction ...that way he gets a boost there, then gets a favored wind on the loop.   Then maybe ask for a car transfer home too.

If there was a database of maybe 10-20 routes built up that are within 20-30 miles of Steves home then he could trial them and chose each day based on the wind direction, then head to that loop and get some cheap, fast miles in.   Once a network of these loops was built the money in the bank could be used to have food provided for Steve in that area and maybe find a local sports physio to provide some massage at the start and finish?

Maybe this has been looked into and ruled out or its just not how Steve wants to go.   For me that's the only way I could see someone in this country sustaining a crack at this effort and keeping the average speed up.

There is such a database, built up over almost 100 years, by thousands of cyclists looking for fast roads. It's called the list of time trial courses.

Ok, but how many of those courses are within reach of Steves base, how many are on suitable roads to use 'all day' and how many are loops?   Genuine question- I don't know enough about time trialing to answer.

I know the local TT routes to me are mainly 10-20 miles from point to point.   Im not aware of many loops.... however, I do know from personal experience how to link those local TTs up to take advantage of weather- that's the kind of routes I would like to see Steve hitting.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Exit Stage Left on 11 January, 2016, 10:56:44 am
I did five long interviews with Steve, and he consistently mentioned that his Fenland loop has evolved to use the shelter of hedged lanes inland, and to use tailwind assistance on the open sections. He has specifically cited Thetford Forest as sheltered. He's optimised the routes available to him.
It might be interesting to send a fit rider around that circuit to see how fast it is. I suspect that Steve has honed a fast route through continuous experiment.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: simonp on 11 January, 2016, 11:01:26 am
Steve seems to have done 3002km so far in 2016 (in the first 10 days). Not bad at all.

186.5mpd, I make that.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ElyDave on 11 January, 2016, 11:04:19 am
I did five long interviews with Steve, and he consistently mentioned that his Fenland loop has evolved to use the shelter of hedged lanes inland, and to use tailwind assistance on the open sections. He has specifically cited Thetford Forest as sheltered. He's optimised the routes available to him.
It might be interesting to send a fit rider around that circuit to see how fast it is. I suspect that Steve has honed a fast route through continuous experiment.

Living not far from there and occasionally riding there, I'd have to agree.  If you can stay out of the winds getting there its probably the most sheltered area around here.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Greenbank on 11 January, 2016, 11:07:38 am
Steve's post from September is relevant:-

(I've trimmed it down but you can go back and read the full post and the ones that led up to that by clicking on the link above the quote.

...
Travelodging seems to be better than hosting. It opens up my options a lot more so I can use the best roads for the wind conditions rather than have to do loops into headwinds etc
...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Tigerrr on 11 January, 2016, 01:11:10 pm

The fact that exceeding the record remains within Steve’s reach and capability means that this thread has a long way to go.

Absolutely - and so does Steve.

It just seems to me that many on this sub-board are keen to write his attempt off. Threads on his days are tinged with posts of "Only xxx miles well that was not enough" and "I can't see how he can do this based on that" or " I would have thought he should have been managing...."

While lots of us here have spent a lot of time on the what-ifs, I don’t think even the most negative of posters has suggested that there is any self-doubt on Steve’s part.

Perhaps not and to be honest I have not read everything posted but I am sick of reading posts with a theme around damning his efforts with feint praise or even suggesting that he is in some way in denial (for example).

FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.

H

If a thread inviting discussion of the record attempt leads to the descent into unpleasant incontinence of the last line of the above post then the thread should have been stopped, or only cheerleaders allowed to post. Given the well known status of the poster in the YACF community I suspect people are hesitant to call out this type of bully-boy behaviour. It is not excellent at all, regardless of whoever posts in that tone.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 January, 2016, 01:21:44 pm
I may be biased, and make no apologies for that, but:

Another way of looking at that, is that the member in question (ooh-err, etc etc ) has a long proven track record in these parts of being a thoroughly reasonable chap, both tolerant and generous. (except when thongs are involved - everyone has a fault).

So for him to be moved to use such language must have taken quite some provocation.

"Think on", as the wise man said ...
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Pale Rider on 11 January, 2016, 01:25:02 pm
If the poster telling people to eff off is wise, he should know that on an internet forum you are only as good as your last post.

Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 11 January, 2016, 01:31:17 pm

FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.

H

Nope! As is alluded above, this isn't a 'Go Steve' cheerleading thread. This is a 'thoughts on the record attempt' thread, and those thoughts can be negative, critical, carry suggestions and all kinds of other content that may well not fill close friends of Steve (or Kurt or Bruce or Bill or Kajsa) with deep joy. And that's tough, Hummers. Neither you nor Steve gets a free pass from criticism just because the project is worthy and creditable.

This is a public challenge, and in Steve's case, it's publicly funded. That makes Steve, in particular, open to the public commentary that we see here, and some of that commentary will not be complimentary or make comfortable reading. If the challenge was going well and there were no grounds for criticism, I might have some sympathy with your outburst. But that's not the case; this challenge is on a knife-edge (at best), and there are legitimate concerns that it won't work and that there may be reasons for that which could have been tackled earlier - or by stopping now and starting agin at a later date. Whether those opinions are correct or not will only be known in time, but it's anyone's right to state them in this forum. And neither you nor anyone else has the right to demand that those opinions aren't expressed.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 11 January, 2016, 01:37:21 pm
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis.   Respect costs nothing but is priceless.     

Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously.  You then call for more respect.  Now I've heard it all.

If you read my posts properly you will see that I have consistently said that it seems to me that some posts are designed to undermine Steve's record attempt.   I believe this to be true.   I offer an open opinion whereas you, in my opinion, appear to be rude and dismissive.   Perhaps my post was not so ridiculous after all.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: aoxomoxoa on 11 January, 2016, 01:38:18 pm

FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.

H

Nope! As is alluded above, this isn't a 'Go Steve' cheerleading thread. This is a 'thoughts on the record attempt' thread, and those thoughts can be negative, critical, carry suggestions and all kinds of other content that may well not fill close friends of Steve (or Kurt or Bruce or Bill or Kajsa) with deep joy. And that's tough, Hummers. Neither you nor Steve gets a free pass from criticism just because the project is worthy and creditable.

This is a public challenge, and in Steve's case, it's publicly funded. That makes Steve, in particular, open to the public commentary that we see here, and some of that commentary will not be complimentary or make comfortable reading. If the challenge was going well and there were no grounds for criticism, I might have some sympathy with your outburst. But that's not the case; this challenge is on a knife-edge (at best), and there are legitimate concerns that it won't work and that there may be reasons for that which could have been tackled earlier - or by stopping now and starting agin at a later date. Whether those opinions are correct or not will only be known in time, but it's anyone's right to state them in this forum. And neither you nor anyone else has the right to demand that those opinions aren't expressed.

+1
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 January, 2016, 01:43:34 pm

FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.

H

Nope! As is alluded above, this isn't a 'Go Steve' cheerleading thread. This is a 'thoughts on the record attempt' thread, and those thoughts can be negative, critical, carry suggestions and all kinds of other content that may well not fill close friends of Steve (or Kurt or Bruce or Bill or Kajsa) with deep joy. And that's tough, Hummers. Neither you nor Steve gets a free pass from criticism just because the project is worthy and creditable.
History has shown that creating such a thread is asking for trouble. (I've explained my reasoning on this before .. to not much popular acclaim! ).

But I just don't buy this "title of the thread" defence. If I created a
"Reasons I think Hummers is a twunt" thread,
 would that justify posts that were honest and forthright on that topic?

(Or should I be more "excellent" and call it "Do you think Hummers has stopped being a twunt?" )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: TimC on 11 January, 2016, 01:46:36 pm

FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.

H

Nope! As is alluded above, this isn't a 'Go Steve' cheerleading thread. This is a 'thoughts on the record attempt' thread, and those thoughts can be negative, critical, carry suggestions and all kinds of other content that may well not fill close friends of Steve (or Kurt or Bruce or Bill or Kajsa) with deep joy. And that's tough, Hummers. Neither you nor Steve gets a free pass from criticism just because the project is worthy and creditable.
History has shown that creating such a thread is asking for trouble. (I've explained my reasoning on this before .. to not much popular acclaim! ).

But I just don't buy this "title of the thread" defence. If I created a
"Reasons I think Hummers is a twunt" thread,
 would that justify posts that were honest and forthright on that topic?

(Or should I be more "excellent" and call it "Do you think Hummers has stopped being a twunt?" )

Go on, I dare you!!

I don't think anyone would regard H (or Steve, or you) as a twunt, and I get the frustration that prompted the outburts. But this is a thread for discussing the attempt, not for blowing sunshine up Steve's arse, and sometimes it will be critical. Why shouldn't it be?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: toontra on 11 January, 2016, 01:50:50 pm
What's happening here is that a few people, who claim to be Steve's "real" friends, are trying to shut down any analysis or suggestions to improve the challenge's chance of success. History is full of examples of people who claim the moral high-ground in justifying their attempts to silence others, and we all know where that leads.  To try and do this in a public forum on a thread titled "Current thoughts on the record attempt" is plainly absurd.

I would suggest that those being most vociferous and outrightly unpleasant are not in fact, as they claim, looking after Steve's best interest - rather what they are doing is massaging their own egos by claiming they are acting on his behalf because they have his "real" interests at heart.  It's the kind of puff-chested behaviour that's seen in drunken arguments where someone barges in an escalates an otherwise calm and rational discussion because they say they are sticking up for a friend (who would probably rather they shut up!).
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: JohnR on 11 January, 2016, 01:55:49 pm
I’ve been “thinking on” and I can’t quite understand why you create a post named “Current thoughts on the record attempt ?”, openly asking for people’s comments and then they are told to eff off when those thoughts aren’t in agreement with some people’s pov. I wasn’t aware we had been moved to North Korea.

As for people not supporting Steve, I find the majority of posts actually do support him but when their thoughts on whether he can complete the challenge or not don’t agree with what has been put up are considered anti-Steve.

I don’t think Hummers’ comment has helped Steve in any way by alienating a lot of people.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Wobbly on 11 January, 2016, 01:59:12 pm
To be fair to Hummers, his post was *very* out of character. So maybe his account had been hacked like Jeremy Corbyn's Twitter account :demon:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12092267/jeremy-corbyn-twitter-account-hacked.html
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Mr Larrington on 11 January, 2016, 02:00:18 pm
I'm sure Hummers has been called far worse things in his time ;)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: JohnR on 11 January, 2016, 02:30:34 pm
To be fair to Hummers, his post was *very* out of character.

I can understand where he is coming from after all it doesn't make for happy reading, but we live in a democratic society where free speech are part of our basic values. Hummers along with everybody else is free to air his views. Not everyone will agree of course.

I don't doubt the outburst was out of character.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 11 January, 2016, 02:31:15 pm
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis.   Respect costs nothing but is priceless.     

Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously.  You then call for more respect.  Now I've heard it all.

If you read my posts properly you will see that I have consistently said that it seems to me that some posts are designed to undermine Steve's record attempt.   I believe this to be true.   I offer an open opinion whereas you, in my opinion, appear to be rude and dismissive.   Perhaps my post was not so ridiculous after all.

In my opinion, opining that other people are posting maliciously is a very rude thing to do.

There, does that suit you better?
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 11 January, 2016, 02:41:55 pm
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis.   Respect costs nothing but is priceless.     

Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously.  You then call for more respect.  Now I've heard it all.

If you read my posts properly you will see that I have consistently said that it seems to me that some posts are designed to undermine Steve's record attempt.   I believe this to be true.   I offer an open opinion whereas you, in my opinion, appear to be rude and dismissive.   Perhaps my post was not so ridiculous after all.

In my opinion, opining that other people are posting maliciously is a very rude thing to do.

There, does that suit you better?

If you are sincere in your posting that will do just fine.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Ben T on 11 January, 2016, 02:51:29 pm
Seems to me there is a theory, that voicing the opinion that he is not likely to get the record, might be a self-fulfilling prophecy - i.e. speculating that he won't achieve it will in itself make him less likely to.
Could be that those who are aggreived at postulation that he will fall short are doing so because they believe that that will in itself hamper his chances.
In other words, if this theory is true, then being aggreived at such pessimistic evaluations would appear justified, but those who don't believe it have difficulty understanding why non-cheerleading posts get people's backs up.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Karla on 11 January, 2016, 02:53:56 pm
If you are sincere ...

No, I'm lying through my teeth  ::-)
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 January, 2016, 02:57:45 pm
Pharti, I think you're inflating a disagreement into a full spat here:
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis.   Respect costs nothing but is priceless.     

Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously.  You then call for more respect.  Now I've heard it all.

If you read my posts properly you will see that I have consistently said that it seems to me that some posts are designed to undermine Steve's record attempt.   I believe this to be true.   I offer an open opinion whereas you, in my opinion, appear to be rude and dismissive.   Perhaps my post was not so ridiculous after all.

In my opinion, opining that other people are posting maliciously is a very rude thing to do.

There, does that suit you better?

Please read my post below - I think it justifies all this "undermining" business without anyone having to be rude to anyone:


BTW, could the reason you are unwilling / unable to quote any posts that are "deliberately trying to undermine Steve's attempt" be  because they don't exist?
Plenty of people think the current attempt is doomed (some have given logical reasons, some have made their concern for Steve clear). It's hardly surprising when they make many posts that discourage the current attempt.

(There are also posts that IMO are just trolling, or just pessimistic with no constructive content; but I accept that these exist in a grey area, and you/I/PB will rarely come to agreement on them, no matter how much quoting we do! )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ElyDave on 11 January, 2016, 02:58:47 pm
Seems to me there is a theory, that voicing the opinion that he is not likely to get the record, might be a self-fulfilling prophecy - i.e. speculating that he won't achieve it will in itself make him less likely to.
Could be that those who are aggreived at postulation that he will fall short are doing so because they believe that that will in itself hamper his chances.
In other words, if this theory is true, then being aggreived at such pessimistic evaluations would appear justified, but those who don't believe it have difficulty understanding why non-cheerleading posts get people's backs up.

That assumes that Steve is reading this avidly, rather than cycling avidly, and that any perceived negative expression here will directly affect either his mental capabilities to retain his focus on the attempt, or his physical ability to do so.

I have never met Steve personally, but a characteristic of other athletes I have met, who were at the top of their game is an unswerving self belief. I can't see that this thread could conceivably dent that.

I think this thread now serves as nothing else than willy-waving by the various protagonists.

BTW - I have utmost respect for Steve, whether he makes the record or not, he will be cycling in one year further than I have cycled in my entire lifetime in all likelihood, and I do not feel qualified to comment on his ability to achieve it or not.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: Polar Bear on 11 January, 2016, 03:04:01 pm
If you are sincere ...

No, I'm lying through my teeth  ::-)

Nothing more to be said then.   
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: mattc on 11 January, 2016, 03:04:31 pm
There were some quite grumpy-sounding FB posts from Alicia/Kurt about trolling on Strava*; taken at face value, it did dent morale. Note also that in Autumn-ish Kurt was behind schedule and had a succession of issues outside their control; it was probably no fun reading shit on the internet during that time - maybe it affected them, maybe not ...



 *(and possibly stuff on here, but I can't remember for sure? )
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: JohnR on 11 January, 2016, 03:06:26 pm
At the end of the day, Steve knows what he has to achieve, the bar's been set. Only he knows how/whether he can do it. All the mental masturbation that's going on here is insignificant to him and I don't think it will make one jot of a difference to his outlook.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: ElyDave on 11 January, 2016, 03:08:34 pm
At the end of the day, Steve knows what he has to achieve, the bar's been set. Only he knows how/whether he can do it. All the mental masturbation that's going on here is insignificant to him and I don't think it will make one jot of a difference to his outlook.

 :thumbsup:

absolutely.
Title: Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Post by: C-3PO on 11 January, 2016, 04:41:50 pm
Masters,
My circuits flashed in an unseemly way and and indicated that an excellent lock had to be put into place. This thread was circuitous in nature and took away from our forum rather than adding to it.

Excellence to each other, to those riding the HAMR and their teams is the protocol my circuits have been programmed to follow.