[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[drgannet]

Steve is currently about 1800 miles behind Godwin's record. With 225 days left in his second attempt, Steve needs to exceed the 206 mile average daily distance by about 8 miles to match Tommy. Pretty much 214 miles need to be ridden every single day from now on.

Kurt looks likely to add about 1200 miles to Tommy's record. To match Kurt, Steve would need about 13 miles daily beyond Tommy's average. That is perilously close to averaging 220 miles every single day till the second attempt finishes.

Steve was barely able to consistently exceed 220 miles days at the height of Summer. He is currently dropping 1-2 Godwins a week and Winter hasn't started yet (flowers are blooming!). Assuming no more than 10 hours (total) a day off the bike to sleep, shower and shit (and fill water bottles, dress, eat, etc), Steve needs to average 15.7 mph (25.3 km/h) just to reach 220 miles, let alone exceed it.

Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.

The numbers look about right. To add some more, here are Steve's weekly average miles per day since the beginning of November:
W/b
26/10/2015   212
02/11/2015   196
09/11/2015   178
16/11/2015   182
23/11/2015   155
30/11/2015   162
07/12/2015   170
14/12/2015   132
21/12/2015   153

[mattc]

^^^good thought, but airfields are often windy!

Yes, and sadly almost all UK racing circuits are based on airfield sites (which is rather excellent for driver helicopter access!). Silverstone may be the windiest place on the planet.

So sadly this is another great idea that isnt NEARLY as straightforward as perhaps it seems. I'm not saying it's useless as an idea, just that it's not a slam-dunk.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Because the circuit would be quite short and the idea is ride in a fast group, headwinds are much less of a problem, as long as Steve doesn't do an upwind turn. That is the job of a big bloke who doesn't mind headwinds.

[Legs]

Using an airfield perimeter road or a flat racing circuit is an excellent suggestion but the location would ideally have fast roads to get to it. That would rule out things like Richmond Park. Steve would only be likely to use such a circuit once a week or so and fast riders would mostly be prepared to ride with him on weekends only.

On a shortish circuit, riders could join and leave the fun at will.  It wouldn't just be limited to fast riders, since Steve would, I guess, only be wanting to attain an average of 17-18mph, which is easy for most club riders in a bunch to keep up for a few hours.  Many midweek club rides go out in many parts of the country - either flexible workers, students or retirees.

The only two potential drawbacks to company riding would be a marginally greater chance of catching communicable illness and a marginally greater chance of an 'off' from contact.  Both of these could be mitigated by (a) requesting that riders with sniffles keep away, and (b) insisting on a minimum standard of road etiquette (Steve to be the arbiter).

Flatness is not all that it's cracked up to be.  Having lived in Cambridge and commuted across the Fens to Ely for years, I know just how challenging a pan-flat route can be.  Much more important is a smooth road surface, and that whatever winds there are are not fought for hours on end.

It's a bit sad that some of you are so blinkered to the reality of what Steve's now up against.  He clearly massively overestimated his abilities when he initially scheduled for the Jan 15 attempt challenge, so, regrettably, I think that any confidence that he or his team project about limiting their perceived losses over the past few week needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

[toontra]

He clearly massively overestimated his abilities when he initially scheduled for the Jan 15 attempt challenge, so, regrettably, I think that any confidence that he or his team project about limiting their perceived losses over the past few week needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

That is the main worry.  Steve has never really come close to his own projected distances, and the discrepancy can't simply be explained by the moped incident or subsequent illnesses.  Even in the "good" times the speed (therefore distance) hasn't been high enough, and I haven't seen that absolutely basic and essential miscalculation addressed by anyone yet.  Until it is tackled head-on and an answer found then we must assume that the challenge will unfortunately fail. And to carry on as if there wasn't a basic flaw in the plan is tending towards the delusional (as was seen clearly with Miles).

Interesting to note that Kurt was far more modest in his projections but will come much closer to matching them in the execution.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Given that the circuit should be pretty much ideal conditions for covering ground, Steve should be cruising at 20 mph. Targeting 18 mph in ideal conditions means that Steve loses ground elsewhere.

While you are basically correct about group riding, you need a fairly strong rider to repeatedly pull into the wind at evens for several hours. An average tandem team would be another option (a fast one on flat ground would go too fast). Flat ground also makes it a lot easier for riders to draft than rolling hills.

Another thought: This morning, a couple of strong riders could have towed Steve into the headwind for 60-80km at 25+km/h, allowing Steve to have a much longer downwind run before running out of England.

A 10-20 mile flattish, well-surfaced circuit with a sheltered upwind side and an unprotected downwind leg would be perfect for Steve when he is riding alone. As suggested up-thread, do any TT courses fit the bill?

Steve has basically trained himself to ride slowly all year after starting the year overweight and unfit, expecting to ride into his normal condition. Instead, he just kept wearing himself down, due to Tommy's relentless daily mileage. That is why he needs to take a proper break (as should have happened after the crash) and train to regain his natural speed (he used to cruise at 20 mph unpaced) before a proper restart.

[hillbilly]

I'm not sure "train" is what Steve did.  If I read it correctly he was relying on superior time management. That's a sound strategy as Steve lacks the top end speed endurance of Kurt.  Steve's Facebook message alludes to this still being the strategy.  It's still a sound strategy but faces a challenge of other factors out of his control frustrating that progress.  Hopefully either his luck turns (although luck is 90% preparation according to Mark Twain) or the changes he introduces counteracts them.

At the moment, it feels like Steve is the pilot of an airplane preparing for take off but the passengers are worried that the runway is going to run out before the wheels lift off the Tarmac.  Problem being the passengers are looking out of the windows with only a limited angle of view, and some are saying they know how to fly the plane, and others trust the experienced crew up front.  Insert Airplane joke here...

[Jaded]

Using an airfield perimeter road or a flat racing circuit is an excellent suggestion but the location would ideally have fast roads to get to it. That would rule out things like Richmond Park. Steve would only be likely to use such a circuit once a week or so and fast riders would mostly be prepared to ride with him on weekends only.

Jaded, run Steve's numbers yourself and see what conclusion you come to. Grinding Steve further into the dirt won't achieve his aim of taking Tommy's record. Happy Boxing Day!

For the slow of thinking, only HK and I have crewed for Steve at 24hr TTs, we were amongst the first to sponsor Steve, we were the first to host him and I offered to crew for him full-time between Christmas and New Year. We continue to wish him all the best in achieving his aims and would be happy to help him get there. What he and his team is doing now will not let him do that.

Ah, so you and HK are the team that will save Steve. I think I've hit it now.

[mattc]

I'm not sure "train" is what Steve did.  If I read it correctly he was relying on superior time management. That's a sound strategy as Steve lacks the top end speed endurance of Kurt.  Steve's Facebook message alludes to this still being the strategy.  It's still a sound strategy but faces a challenge of other factors out of his control frustrating that progress.  Hopefully either his luck turns (although luck is 90% preparation according to Mark Twain) or the changes he introduces counteracts them.

At the moment, it feels like Steve is the pilot of an airplane preparing for take off but the passengers are worried that the runway is going to run out before the wheels lift off the Tarmac.  Problem being the passengers are looking out of the windows with only a limited angle of view, and some are saying they know how to fly the plane, and others trust the experienced crew up front.  Insert Airplane joke here...

:like:

(I do agree with LWAB that Steve could have got himself into better form on Dec 31st,  but;
- I think he expected to "ride himself into fitness". This is a VERY popular meme.
- He was very distracted in Autumn 2014.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing

)

[Von Broad]

Insert Airplane joke here...

"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit reading internet forums."

The mathematics of the situation just don't lie, not after nearly 12 months, how the hell can they?
They speak their own story.

I was looking at the HAMR site the other day. They have a couple of fascinating graphs of their own.
This one which charts average speed is interesting...

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

See how closely alligned Kurt is to Godwin over the year.......and the misfortune of Steve falling away after the accident, and then the subsequent leveling out of performance.

But this one is also fascinating....particularly with reference to Godwin. See how he starts below both Kurt and Steve in the early months [the affects of winter no doubt], but then gets this really incredible surge over the summer months to bring his average right back up there....and then falls back again gradually towards the end [same thing I'm guessing].

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/byday.html

Nobody doubts Steve's resolve, staying power, tenacity, grit, steadfastness, call it what you will - he's in a league all on his own. Goodness knows those of us who have been even loosely on the fringes of the audax community have seen this over the years, and people have read of his endeavours here and elsewhere on the internet. It's rock solid and legendary. But this is not what the challenge is about, not solely any way. It's about miles, it's about speed, it's all about support and it's about getting enough recovery to continue day after day. And speed.

FWIW I agree with much of what LWAB has to say, especially this:

Alicia is the biggest advantage Kurt has had. She has kept him focused, studied the weather, sorted accommodation and so on. Every time Kurt has weakened mentally, she has adjusted the situation, arranged riding companions and brought him back on track. She has been (mostly) able to keep him riding, despite multiple efforts to destroy bikes.

Goodness knows how many supermarkets grocery stores she's seen the inside of either!

[Mr Larrington]

Silverstone perhaps.

Silverstone would be ideal for Steve save for the fact that it's in near-constant use by people with a lot more money than he could ever hope to realise.  Most motor-racing circuits and vehicle test tracks are similarly encumbered.

The BHPC used to race on the kart circuit at Kimbolton, which also had noise-related restrictions on motorised racing, but even the least twiddly layout would probably be too restricted.  Plus some parish council busybody noticed all the cars parked at the track on a non-racing weekend and promptly got us banned in spite of the lack of screaming two-stroke racket making the very cabbages bow their heads in fear.

[Arry-R]

I'm not sure "train" is what Steve did.  If I read it correctly he was relying on superior time management. That's a sound strategy as Steve lacks the top end speed endurance of Kurt.  Steve's Facebook message alludes to this still being the strategy.  It's still a sound strategy but faces a challenge of other factors out of his control frustrating that progress.  Hopefully either his luck turns (although luck is 90% preparation according to Mark Twain) or the changes he introduces counteracts them.

At the moment, it feels like Steve is the pilot of an airplane preparing

:like:

(I do agree with LWAB that Steve could have got himself into better form on Dec 31st,  but;
- I think he expected to "ride himself into fitness". This is a VERY popular meme.
- He was very distracted in Autumn 2014.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing

)

If I recall correctly he was busy from dawn till dusk on computer in the weeks leading up to the start and didn't have as much time as he'd wished to be as fit as intended

[Wobbly]

This would be such a valuable thread if it wasn't for the tiresome, pathetic posts from a few individuals.

You know who you are. Please shut up or fuck off. Unless you have something to contribute.

Sorry for the language folks.

[Shreds]

So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?

[MacB]

So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?

perhaps, as far as I can glean the key ingredient, once you've excluded their superhuman aspects, is the ability to get enough rest and to fuel/refuel correctly. That both Steve and Kurt possess the mental fortitude doesn't seem to be in doubt. So then it just comes down to the maths and the physical, no matter how many times I run the numbers they are still awe inspiring. Taken at the most basic:-

77k miles in 365 days means an averaged 211 miles per day

If you could cycle non-stop for a year, no sleep, etc, etc, that's still 8.8mph required

So every hour off the bike pushes that mph requirement higher

[rafletcher]

And, sadly, Steve isn't going fast enough at the moment. 13 hours today and 160 miles. A huge achievement, but not enough.

[SoreTween]

Castle Combe circuit (near Chippenham, Wilts) isn't heavily used for motorised stuffs, IIRC, as the locals have put in restrictions on noise.  Local, and not so local, cycling clubs can and do use it for not very much money.

Good call also. Not flat from what I recall but not bad and sheltered from some wind direcetions.
Best I can offer is the Severn Vale flatlands such as Lee Fancourt's circuit. Quiet,flat and sheltered by a whole lotta Wales from some winds, a place to test F1 aerodynamics for free in others 

ETA [rant thread]Grrrr, effing phone[/rant thread]

Another thought: This morning, a couple of strong riders could have towed Steve into the headwind for 60-80km at 25+km/h, allowing Steve to have a much longer downwind run before running out of England.

+1 

[hillbilly]

So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?

I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.  It's the one aspect of Kurt's record that I get all UCI over. I do appreciate what Kurt has achieved and the devotion it took, but my own silly little worldview is that there should be a separate category for events that use a recumbent (even though in reality it would be difficult to "police").   

[Jaded]

So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?

I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.  It's the one aspect of Kurt's record that I get all UCI over. I do appreciate what Kurt has achieved and the devotion it took, but my own silly little worldview is that there should be a separate category for events that use a recumbent (even though in reality it would be difficult to "police").   

Kurt never used a recumbent. Did he?

[Kim]

I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.

News just in:  He already did.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Most unfaired recumbents aren't hugely faster than a good TT bike anyway.

Kurt regularly uses a highracer. Steve used a trike with the broken leg.

[Kim]

Most unfaired recumbents aren't hugely faster than a good TT bike anyway.

But perhaps use less power (so less recovery needed) and are more suited for riding for hours on end?

But realistically, that's not something that can be usefully slotted into an in-progress attempt that's got almost no margin for error left.  Even if you could just /buy/ a recumbent (rather than the usual process of harassing dealers with more interesting things to do for months on end) and didn't waste too much time sorting out the bike fit^[1], Steve isn't adapted to riding one, so would likely suffer a drop in performance for a while.



_{[1] Fewer critical parameters than an upwrong, but also less forgiving.}

[LittleWheelsandBig]

I don't know enough about this particular aspect to make a sensible comment.

I do know several folk who have transitioned from recumbents back to uprights for long brevets. If you only have a single (recumbent) riding position, you can't afford the slightest discomfort in that position.

[Von Broad]

So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?

I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.  It's the one aspect of Kurt's record that I get all UCI over.

That's a shame because Steve doesn't feel the same way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qh6bmIbgyGM
[from about 3.25mins]

Although he enjoyed riding the Vortex, I can't see Steve being that interested in riding recumbent really.
I'd be confident that he can get up to speed riding what he's used to.

I get the feeling that Kurt rides the Dark Side for variety as much as anything else. I think his mileage is pretty much similar on either format.

[Arry-R]

I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent.  I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.  It's the one aspect of Kurt's record that I get all UCI over. I do appreciate what Kurt has achieved and the devotion it took, but my own silly little worldview is that there should be a separate category for events that use a recumbent (even though in reality it would be difficult to "police").   
[/quote]





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