[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[Jaded]

It is so easy to climb out the woodwork on day 364 and say how the team should be organised.

As far as I am concerned, Steve has ridden the 4th longest distance ever on some exceptionally challenging roads in some exceptionally challenging conditions with an exceptionally challenging injury. Bravo!

And it's pretty easy to make snide remarks when you get so much training.

I've been solidly behind Steve and I'm one of the many to support him practically over  the months. I've avoided criticising any of his tactics and kept my opinions of his team (which frankly have developed over those 365 days) under wraps.

There is a time to be upfront though, and I think this is it.

And the time is now, obviously. Just when it can have most effect.
Training? I learn from the masters.

[danridesbikes]

"A new concurrent attempt starts today 1st January 2016!"

.........wouldnt be the worst thing in the world, if he thinks he can do 220mpd for the current year, then having the option to carry on come August would be a wise move, maybe

#positivepost

[Wowbagger]

The objective is for Steve to beat TG's and, whatever it becomes on 10/1/2016, KS's record. If there is a secondary objective in the second attempt, eg breaking Steve Abraham's 2015 record for under 50s, then we should be told.

It comes to light on the penultimate day of the year that Steve has been suffering from "serious organ stress from high levels of muscle breakdown".

I am quite sure that many of us would have expressed these concerns a lot earlier had we been party to them. We were expressing concerns in an undirected way, simply because we could see that Steve's second effort was foundering but were not party to the more precise knowledge that has been imparted today.

It is perfectly clear that his August to August attempt is not going to break the record. It's time he stopped, had a good long recovery period and decide, in a few month's time, what he wants to do from there.

[Wowbagger]

"A new concurrent attempt starts today 1st January 2016!"

.........wouldnt be the worst thing in the world, if he thinks he can do 220mpd for the current year, then having the option to carry on come August would be a wise move, maybe

#positivepost

That would be utterly bonkers. Going into an attempt like this the athlete needs to be at the top of his form and completely fit right at the start. Steve isn't. He needs a break.

[Shreds]

Steve, take a break, go and do some of that respite touring you have talked about and no one will think any the less of you.

You are a true hero!

Then after a year or so, think carefully about whether you want another crack at it, reorganise support and sponsorship, with lots more support and a professional pr machine then get into training if you want to have another crack at it, but if you decide to just continue Audaxing, that's fine, you don't owe anybody anything and have inspired many to go further than they ever thought possible, including Kurt, or get back on their bike.

But please don't jeopardise your own health any further for the sake of this attempt.

[Sergeant Pluck]

I find the term  "organ stress" rather odd, hopefully it's a bit mis-translation from Dr speak by whoever made the Facebook post.  In 20+years in health care its a term I've never heard used and its rings quackery rather than medicine.  Indeed a quick google of the term brings up a mix of cellular biology (which is not appropriate to the circumstances) and some of the more eccentric alternative therapies.

I'm sure exhaustion is an issue but organ stress?

I share your thoughts on that. These anonymous FB posts that refer to Steve in the third person always make me slightly uneasy anyway, and the rather strange medical information added to that feeling. Oh well. As you say, it could be just a matter of how it is expressed.

That FB post, together with other gleanings and educated guesses, strengthens my sincere hope that Steve is discussing plans with those who can offer an objective view and who can assist in weighing up the risks - very real - and possible benefits for a range of options.

I refrained from comment on strategy on FB as I don't think it is the place for it, but I did wish him safe riding. Treacherous conditions out there.

[Greenbank]

On a more positive note, I'm still not sold on the 220mpd automatically being "too much" theory as you only need to look at what happened with Godwin's 1939 record.

At the end of day 144 of Tommy's 1939 record breaking attempt he had covered a total of 25284 miles, which was an average of just 174.4 miles per day.

That left him 221 days to cover the remaining 49781 miles, which required 225.25 miles per day. And he (obviously) did just that.

Up until that point (144 days in) Tommy had not shown he was consistently able to do that mileage as he had only exceeded 225 miles on 4 days out of those 145 days.

Sound familiar?

(Of course, it's a lot trickier with the miles already in Steve's legs and the great unknown of whether he will recover properly from the recent problems, or whether he has the legs to do 225mpd+ at all for that remaining time...)

To play Devil's Advocate I'd suggest that if he was going to consider a restart 1st Jan 2017 then I can see exactly why he'd keep going until it was much more obviously slipping from his grasp. Even if he gets to August 2016 and misses out then he's still got a good few months to recover, regroup and replan before a January 2017 restart.

And, obviously, if he doesn't recover quickly enough, or his health is adversely affected for any other reason, then I hope he or his team will pull the plug quickly on the 2nd (August 2015) attempt.

[LMT]

The difference being that Godwin was paced, and he had the luxury of long warm days.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

To date, the team has shown no significant interest in adopting measures that would noticeably increase Steve's mileage. Various suggestions were made months ago, even before his ankle got broken. Fat lot of good that turned out to be.

Tommy racked up his big mileage months with full-time motorised support. Tommy spent significant periods at or above 20 mph, often on major roads with lorries limited to 20 mph. Tommy came off a very hard winter with ungritted roads while Steve has had very little snow and hasn't averaged 20 mph over most of a day this year, even with a strong tailwind.

Comparing Steve's current situation with Tommy's is not reasonable.

[Greenbank]

Steve could choose to be paced (or dropped each day at the base of a tailwind). From just looking at the raw data it looked as if some significant change was made in Tommy's riding regime around the end of May as he went from rarely exceeding 225 miles to regularly doing so (and often by some margin). I haven't got far enough in CitizenFishy's book to find out whether it's documented there.

And they'll both have roughly the same number of long warm days, although this will come down to the weather in 2016 compared to what it was in 1939:-

Tommy's ~221 days ran from 25th May to 31st Dec so it included a fair chunk of Autumn and Winter, all of Summer but misses out on the warmer days of Spring (April/May).

Steve's ~221 days runs from 1st Jan to mid August, so it includes a fair chunk of Winter and Spring but misses out on the warmest/longest days of August/September.

[hellymedic]

I can't be the only one who gets confused by the TG abbreviation cos I think TG = Teeth Grinder
when it means Tommy Godwin.
As I'm a bear of little brane, can we just name them Steve and Tommy?

Ta muchly!

[Greenbank]

To date, the team has shown no significant interest in adopting measures that would noticeably increase Steve's mileage.

Except for the few recent occasions where he has been dropped back in MK to avoid a strong headwind riding back W/SW. Maybe this is just the beginning of the changes. Again, we don't know either way.

Comparing Steve's current situation with Tommy's is not reasonable.

I agree it is comparing 1939 apples to 2015 oranges, but I'm merely pointing out it is just as unreasonable to say that it would be impossible for someone to do 225mpd+ for 221 days based on them having not got anywhere near that for 145 days before that. Except that Tommy did go out and do just that. It may be unlikely (but not impossible) that Steve will manage it, but I can see why he's not giving up on it yet.

Steve has the benefit of, amongst other things, better technology, better lights and better clothing. In his first attempt he was ~2800 miles ahead of Tommy's pace when he was hit by the moped. That may be due to having better conditions to ride in, but that's part of the element of luck that this record will require if you're going to do it based in the UK. The roads certainly weren't still icy in early May 1939 (before the daily averages jumped up), so it's not all down to the weather.

I've said pretty much all along that it'll be the warmer weather that will be make or break for Steve, and whether he has the legs for months of 240mpd+ averages (which his original schedules called for, even ~285mpd during July). We didn't get to see it in 2015 due to injury and subsequent loss of form so we've nothing to base it on.

[Ham]

FWIW and for clarity, I too think Steve could possibly be capable of carrying on (although to be honest I think it is improbable that he will achieve the target of the second restart). I don't know what it takes to get up each morning and pedal to the magnificent achievement has already attained, I don't think my views on the strategy needed to achieve the target count for squat.

What I have been arguing for is for his "team" to take a deep breath and consider what is needed from them for Steve to achieve his target, whether up to now they have been doing what they are able to do, or what Steve needed, and needs now. To think long and hard about the implications of continuing to support Steve in the way they have. Now, at the completion of the first year with a substantial achievement is the right time to do that.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Steve has been at least 2mph slower than his schedule pretty much all year. He kept lifting his daily distance, before his broken ankle, by increasing hours ridden, along with a gradual speed increase. In March, Steve was already accumulating sleep debt. He couldn't increase his hours ridden any more. Any additional daily distance in future had to come from riding faster. The drunk took that away but he wasn't going to exceed 250 daily miles in Summer without a huge step change.

Steve screwed himself by not properly recuperating (sports physio?) from his broken ankle. No opportunity was taken to get faster, just grinding out slow miles both before and after the restart. If anything, less support was given/ taken after the restart, meaning Steve spent more time off the bike and reducing his average speed on it. He has shown an uncharacteristic fragility since the restart with lots of sickness.

Steve's crew has chanted 'Steve knows best' and facilitated an approach that seems intended to minimise his daily miles, despite all of the evidence that Steve was getting more run down, rather than quicker. The team members that disagreed with that approach have been fired or left or keep their heads down.

[Frank9755]

To date, the team has shown no significant interest in adopting measures that would noticeably increase Steve's mileage.

Except for the few recent occasions where he has been dropped back in MK to avoid a strong headwind riding back W/SW. Maybe this is just the beginning of the changes. Again, we don't know either way.

Comparing Steve's current situation with Tommy's is not reasonable.

I agree it is comparing 1939 apples to 2015 oranges, but I'm merely pointing out it is just as unreasonable to say that it would be impossible for someone to do 225mpd+ for 221 days based on them having not got anywhere near that for 145 days before that. Except that Tommy did go out and do just that. It may be unlikely (but not impossible) that Steve will manage it, but I can see why he's not giving up on it yet.

Steve has the benefit of, amongst other things, better technology, better lights and better clothing. In his first attempt he was ~2800 miles ahead of Tommy's pace when he was hit by the moped. That may be due to having better conditions to ride in, but that's part of the element of luck that this record will require if you're going to do it based in the UK. The roads certainly weren't still icy in early May 1939 (before the daily averages jumped up), so it's not all down to the weather.

I've said pretty much all along that it'll be the warmer weather that will be make or break for Steve, and whether he has the legs for months of 240mpd+ averages (which his original schedules called for, even ~285mpd during July). We didn't get to see it in 2015 due to injury and subsequent loss of form so we've nothing to base it on.

Other factors that explain why it is highly improbable that Steve could match Tommy's increase in rate are:
- Seasons: Tommy upped his mileage in the Summer.   Because Steve (re) started in August, he's already had half of his Summer riding.
- Fatigue: Tommy upped his mileage when he had been going for 5 months.  Steve has been on the road for 12 (barring minimal enforced rest with broken ankle).
- Age: 27 vs 41
- Cycling pedigree: Tommy was a racer with some success in time trialling, used to riding fast.  Steve is our finest plodder, used to riding steadily for long periods but has no track record of riding quickly.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

To be fair, Steve's 24hr TT PB is further than Tommy's. On the other hand, Tommy rode very few 24s.

[Arry-R]

As we are on the last day of the first challenge attempt I would like to thank all of the TEAM who have contributed to Steve's year including Roger who set up the money side of things and has given us regular updates  (even since he stepped down ) I think if Steve was intending to stop at the end of today then an indication of that would have been posted.  I suspect the TEAM have done an awful lot of work behind the scenes discussing the options for Steve.  I think if Steve had accepted the idea of a mobile feeding /support vehicle that would have been in place a long time ago mindful of the healthy state of the finances. This would have ensured he wasn't lugging more gear than need by or spending time ordering /waiting for meals.  Good luck to Steve in his endeavours whichever route he goes down.  My thanks also to Jo for all her hard work.  My best wishes to Steve and fellow supporters of Steve's challenge and hope 2016 is a good year for you.

[Ham]

As we are on the last day of the first challenge attempt I would like to thank all of the TEAM who have contributed to Steve's year including Roger who set up the money side of things and has given us regular updates  (even since he stepped down ) I think if Steve was intending to stop at the end of today then an indication of that would have been posted.  I suspect the TEAM have done an awful lot of work behind the scenes discussing the options for Steve.  I think if Steve had accepted the idea of a mobile feeding /support vehicle that would have been in place a long time ago mindful of the healthy state of the finances. This would have ensured he wasn't lugging more gear than need by or spending time ordering /waiting for meals.  Good luck to Steve in his endeavours whichever route he goes down.  My thanks also to Jo for all her hard work.  My best wishes to Steve and fellow supporters of Steve's challenge and hope 2016 is a good year for you.

Indeed, whatever the rights and wrongs going forwards, Steve's efforts are monumental and I'm sure all the people involved have given unstintingly of their time.

And Jo, we didn't know

[hillbilly]

It's important not to lose sight of what Steve has achieved in the past 364 days. 

He is demonstrably one of the most accomplished endurance cyclists of all time, who can look on the legends of first half of the 20th century and justifiably think "I have proven myself a match for them".  There is only one other living person who can also make that claim and he is about to take a record that has stood for longer than most of us have been on this planet.

It's fucking amazeballs.  Awesome.  I feel fortunate to have been witness to an epoch making attempt on a seemingly impossible dream.  I will be toasting Steve's success this evening and wishing him a happy and healthy New Year, wherever it takes him.

[clarion]

Exactly.

[redfalo]

It's important not to lose sight of what Steve has achieved in the past 364 days. 

He is demonstrably one of the most accomplished endurance cyclists of all time, who can look on the legends of first half of the 20th century and justifiably think "I have proven myself a match for them".  There is only one other living person who can also make that claim and he is about to take a record that has stood for longer than most of us have been on this planet.

It's fucking amazeballs.  Awesome.  I feel fortunate to have been witness to an epoch making attempt on a seemingly impossible dream.  I will be toasting Steve's success this evening and wishing him a happy and healthy New Year, wherever it takes him.

That's true - but in a way, his past performance also tells you how much more Steve had been able to achieve with a different approach: lighter bikes, flatter routes, a Kurt-style motor home, help from domestiques and so on.

Steve's effort has been utterly amazing, but if he want's to topple Kurt's new record, I think it's inevitable that he will have to change his philosophy.

[Exit Stage Left]

I'll be interested to see if Kurt gets much recognition for his achievement. There's a fair amount of human interest in the story, but the media are fickle.
The year record wouldn't have come to our attention again if there hadn't been two Tommy Godwins, and the other one hadn't won an Olympic medal, and was still alive in the run-up to London 2012.

[Wowbagger]

Yes it would. Steve brought it to our attention by his ambition, and that was what caused what limited media interest there has been.

[hillbilly]

Here was me thinking it was because Idai got in touch with the media, in part due to the need to attract corporate sponsorship.

[Exit Stage Left]

The first reference on here to either Tommy Godwin was in January 2012.
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=55379.msg1131142#msg1131142

The idea of a YACF challenge came from Caerau in June 2013, following an item on the One show.
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=72564.0

Unless someone can find anything before that of course.