[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[rabbit]

Steve's a big boy.  I doubt he gives two hoots about the negativity on this thread, other people's opinions or what any of us say regarding the team. 

He's already said he listens/reads advice, digests it and rules most of it out. 

I don't feel we need to 'protect' a grown man from peoples internet waffle.  Steve is an exceptionally intelligent and driven human being, do you really think anything posted here makes any difference?  I doubt it. I'm sure he is more capable than most of us in filtering out the wheat from the chaff with regard to his life!

I would love it if he stopped the second attempt right now.  I know he won't because of me or others who are keen to see him repair and rejuvenate.  He will only do that when he is ready, and I suspect that will be in 7 or so months when the date arrives to stop.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Just hypothetically, what happens when Steve doesn't quit? He could keep launching additional overlapping attempts, even when (as is now the case) he has no chance of breaking the record.

[rabbit]

Just hypothetically, what happens when Steve doesn't quit? He could keep launching additional overlapping attempts, even when (as is now the case) he has no chance of breaking the record.

HALM  (highest annual lifetime mileage)

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Steve has got to exceed a million miles by a significant amount (and counting) to do that.

http://miles4melanoma.com/freddiehoffman/

[Polar Bear]

Is every time an athlete pounds down the track doing the 100 metres or a time trialist hunches over the bars a failure if ultimately they don't set a new record?   

Steve's challenge is a test of his endurance, his mental and physical fortitude, his commitment.   We have already seen challengers come and go.   We all gasped when Steve had the accident and marvelled at his determination and commitment to keep going.   

Steve is clearly committed to carrying on with his second attempt and I, one of many, continue to follow, support and encourage him regardless of whether he manages to crack the record or not.

I understand that there are folk who don't understand the nature of a challenge, that success is not a guarantee, that Steve will suffer during the challenge and that all of this is part of what makes this a mega challenge.   

Roll on Steve with the wind on your back and good fortune ahead.   

[mattc]

Steve's a big boy.  I doubt he gives two hoots about the negativity on this thread, other people's opinions or what any of us say regarding the team. 

He's already said he listens/reads advice, digests it and rules most of it out. 

I don't feel we need to 'protect' a grown man from peoples internet waffle.  Steve is an exceptionally intelligent and driven human being, do you really think anything posted here makes any difference?  I doubt it. I'm sure he is more capable than most of us in filtering out the wheat from the chaff with regard to his life!

Although you dont explicitly say, this post is clearly in response to mine.

My post was in no way intended to protect Steve from anything. That would imply I was attempting censorship; to stop people saying certain things.

that is not what I suggested; my idea was to have another, different conversation, in addition to this one.

Hope that's clear

[Freya]

Well, I do think that there are people on here who equate failing at something with being a 'failure'. They are actually two different things. Steve set out to break the record. He failed to do that.. That does not reflect badly on him either as a person or as an athlete. It does not define him as an individual. By the same token you can't say he has succeeded in achieving his aim. Yes, it has been a stupendous effort, an inspiring display of resilience , mental fortitude and athletic endurance, but you can't get away from the fact that Kurt has done what Steve has been unable to.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

PB, when somebody tackles the year record, it is a simple situation - success or failure.

Steve failed his first attempt, due to a drunk. It was obvious the instant his ankle broke.

Steve has also failed his second attempt. It has been marginal for months and now is beyond doubt. The deficit to Tommy's (and shortly Kurt's) record is beyond recovery within the next seven months.

Steve is wasting his time and resources (and those of his support crew, supporters and sponsors) when he could be properly preparing for a serious assault on the record that would actually have a significant chance of success.

[Polar Bear]

In terms simply of achieving a new record, yes.  He has not managed yet to post a new record. 

Steve still has about 220 days left of attempt 2 AND as yet, I haven't seen any proof of any person ever accurately reading the tea leaves and predicting the future.   Of course, if you can, please send me by PM the numbers for the lottery draws tonight and tomorrow night.  You can have one half of my winnings as your share. 

[LMT]

Is every time an athlete pounds down the track doing the 100 metres or a time trialist hunches over the bars a failure if ultimately they don't set a new record?   

Steve's challenge is a test of his endurance, his mental and physical fortitude, his commitment.   We have already seen challengers come and go.   We all gasped when Steve had the accident and marvelled at his determination and commitment to keep going.   

Steve is clearly committed to carrying on with his second attempt and I, one of many, continue to follow, support and encourage him regardless of whether he manages to crack the record or not.

I understand that there are folk who don't understand the nature of a challenge, that success is not a guarantee, that Steve will suffer during the challenge and that all of this is part of what makes this a mega challenge.   

Roll on Steve with the wind on your back and good fortune ahead.

Steve's attempt is to set out to break a record, not to see how long he can ride a bike for. His efforts now are detrimental to any potential future attempts.

[LMT]

In terms simply of achieving a new record, yes.  He has not managed yet to post a new record. 

Steve still has about 220 days left of attempt 2 AND as yet, I haven't seen any proof of any person ever accurately reading the tea leaves and predicting the future.   Of course, if you can, please send me by PM the numbers for the lottery draws tonight and tomorrow night.  You can have one half of my winnings as your share.

Quit with the hyperbole, there is no assumption in saying he can't do it. It's a presumption based on past performance and hard data.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

PB, I'll buy you a beer for every week that Steve averages 220 or more miles a day. Steve needs to average at least that much distance every single week until his 2nd attempt finishes in early August. It has been 2 months since Steve had a week that averaged more than 200 daily miles.

[Fidgetbuzz]

I posted this -- a couple of pages back

It has become obvious over time that this record requires something way beyond an amateur approach .. it needs very serious planning and colossal support ( not just financially -- which Steve has had ) but in more areas than I can separately list. This inclines me to believe that the second attempt is destined to fail.. BUT .. if a dedicated team could be found, put their heads together and plotted a serious attempt beginning 1.1.17 then the rider who might be able to take the record  does exist in UK -- and that is Steve.

For Steve to succeed , rather than just riding on and on during 2016. A completely new approach is needed -- clearly this has to be talked thru with Steve -- all sorts of topics have to be considered -- pre start conditioning and training, nutrition, how to do the ride .. MK loops of 10/15/25 miles, drafting support, equipment .. bike .. clothing etc, sponsorship , PR, finances -- the list is not endless.. but it does gone and on .. the team posts that are important and who is best able to fill them , and who is the best team leader.. will these people be able to devote the time for a year .

Now Steve may not agree with this more structured approach - in which case forget it -- but if he wants the record - then I would suggest that this the way to give him the best chance.

[toontra]

For Steve to succeed , rather than just riding on and on during 2016. A completely new approach is needed -- clearly this has to be talked thru with Steve -- all sorts of topics have to be considered -- pre start conditioning and training, nutrition, how to do the ride .. MK loops of 10/15/25 miles, drafting support, equipment .. bike .. clothing etc, sponsorship , PR, finances -- the list is not endless.. but it does gone and on .. the team posts that are important and who is best able to fill them , and who is the best team leader.. will these people be able to devote the time for a year .

Now Steve may not agree with this more structured approach - in which case forget it -- but if he wants the record - then I would suggest that this the way to give him the best chance.

Given that FB played such an important part of the team that brought us the hugely successful LEL 2013 (and having learnt important lessons from LEL 2009), and his insight into how Steve's campaign has been run this year, I think his advice should be given serious consideration.

[red marley]

I think the time for encouraging Steve to stop or pause in response to concerns about likelihood of him beating Tommy's or Kurt's annual totals was in the last few weeks. December 31st offered a chance for a graceful and dignified exit should he have wished to.

Now that Steve has publicly stated he wishes to continue until August 2016, continued calls to quit aren't going to help. As most of us have experienced when on a long ride, we are not short of our own personal demons telling us to quit. Those are quite enough.

I will continue to support Steve's attempt both financially and morally while he and the team wish to continue. The evidence so far is that taking Kurt's anticipated record is unlikely, but it's up to Steve and the team to choose how to respond to that. There are still some unknowns such as the full impact of Steve's change in diet or whether in 2016 there will be change in tactics. I think he deserves the opportunity to explore those possibilities.

[rafletcher]

Now Steve may not agree with this more structured approach - in which case forget it -- but if he wants the record - then I would suggest that this the way to give him the best chance.

That's the nub of it I guess. How does Steve want to achieve whatever it is he is chasing, and just what is he wanting to achieve?  Like LWaB it seems to me that his second annual effort has little chance of exceeding whatever annual mileage records stand at the end of it, other than age related. And to have an age related total that is less than that of an older riders doesn't really stack up for me - but then I'm the sort of person that sees beating records as black and white (like I suspect Kurt will - IME Americans tend to the polarised yes/no pass/fail approach, as opposed to the British shades of grey approach to achievement).

I think (as in my personal opinion) that those who are funding him (as well as those who are providing direct support - I assume they are "in the know") should be kept informed of what the challenge is - many people I suspect are giving money that they could usefully use elsewhere because they want to support Steve as an individual. "Contract"or not, it seems unfair for them to keep making what could be an open-ended commitment. Of course they could just stop, as some have done, but perhaps they'd be happier continuing with knowledge rather than feeling unappreciated. (I don't have a continuing commitment, I was one of the one-off payers at the start).

I also think Matt's suggestion of a separate "number crunching" thread has some merit, for those who want facts not speculation, although it could get a little dry. 

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Supporting Steve and his team to continue his 2nd attempt isn't going to help the situation either.

[Polar Bear]

Well said Jo. 

He earned our support and respect on day 1 and still does so on day 366 and beyond in my opinion.

[jochta]

I notice that voluntary £1 donations "to support Steve Abraham's distance record attempt" are still in force on AUK. When do they stop? The graphic next to the option clearly states 2015. I think this needs to be removed or certainly explained as I'm sure many entrants have no idea what it's for or why it's continuing beyond 2015.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Write to the AUK Board about the donation scheme.

[Freya]

Am I right in saying that Steve would have to declare when any attempt starts. In other words, if he gets to August  without breaking the record, but with a decent aggregate from today, he can't just decide that he is going to go for a Jan-Dec 2016 record?

[red marley]

That's correct, at least under HAM'R rules.

The waters are muddied a little by the fact we appear to have a Guinness-valdidated and an 'unofficial' attempt from Kajsa and Bruce this year that operate under different rules. Personally, I'd draw the line at recognising any record that is drawn up retrospectively.

[TimC]

PB, when somebody tackles the year record, it is a simple situation - success or failure.

Steve failed his first attempt, due to a drunk. It was obvious the instant his ankle broke.

Steve has also failed his second attempt. It has been marginal for months and now is beyond doubt. The deficit to Tommy's (and shortly Kurt's) record is beyond recovery within the next seven months.

Steve is wasting his time and resources (and those of his support crew, supporters and sponsors) when he could be properly preparing for a serious assault on the record that would actually have a significant chance of success.

While I obviously agree that the first attempt failed and the second looks beyond reach, I agree with PB that there's no way Steve can be regarded as a 'failure' - and I know you feel the same way. Steve's achievement is magnificent by any standards; the fact that he didn't break the record is a shame but neither here nor there, at the end of the day.

I think it's a mistake for him to carry on, but I wouldn't be so harsh as to say he's wasting anyone's time. If he wants to carry on and the volunteers are happy to carry on supporting him, good luck to him and them. I'd like to know what the aim is, but I can't demand to know. I can only hope that those around him will step in if they believe he is in danger of harming himself.

Despite our predictions of him falling short of Tommy and Kurt, if he remains healthy it's highly likely he'll raise his own total for the year to around 70,000 miles, and will become the second-fastest-ever to 100,000 miles. If that's the aim, so be it. Good luck and go safely.

[rafletcher]

Given the title of the thread, it would be illuminating to know what is actually being attempted now though. Well it would for me, to help maintain an interest.

[jsabine]

PB, I'll buy you a beer for every week that Steve averages 220 or more miles a day. Steve needs to do at least that much distance every week until his 2nd attempt finishes in early August. It has been 2 months since Steve had a week that averaged more than 200 daily miles.

And every day that he rides c180 miles adds c1/5 of a mile to the daily average he needs. If that's what he averages during January, he'll need to hit 227 mpd from then on; if it stays the same during February, the required rate will be about 235 mpd.

I wonder if people - here or in the team - are looking at Jo's excellent visualisations, noting that Steve is currently about 2000 miles up on Tommy's mileage on the equivalent day of his ride, and concluding that it must therefore be possible still to exceed the record distance.

Whatever the likelihood of that, ultimately, as Jo notes, it is Steve's decision. Whichever way he decides (and I hope he has trustworthy advisors helping him) he has all my respect for his achievements so far and into the future.