[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[Exit Stage Left]

I sense I'm unusual for an observer on this side of the Atlantic, as I can identify with Kurt more than Steve. I'm a self-employed contractor who took up cycling more seriously in early middle age for fitness reasons. My dad was a builder, like Kurt's, and many of my bigger cycling feats have been undertaken with the full support of my partner Heather.

When you contract to do a big job you have to stick as closely as possible to the average daily output throughout the contract period. You need to set up your processes to start doing that on day 1 and focus on meeting the deadline, with a contingency for the unforeseen. While doing that you have to focus on efficiency. The phrase, 'An engineer can do for a dollar what any fool can do for two' comes from contracting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_M._Wellington

For me, Kurt has fulfilled all the criteria for success. I can see how a Kurt and Alicia double act would be good at any project management seminar. That never seems to have been the aim. 'Because we can' has been the guiding thought, but I wouldn't begrudge any return that they make on their investment of a year, the expenditure, and the  income foregone.

Steve's attempt has looked to me more like the work of local council. Carried out in an atmosphere of small-scale politics, and constantly slipping behind the schedule. The main things holding it together have been a conspicuous display of loyalty, and Steve's unflinching commitment to the task.

[jsabine]

I notice that voluntary £1 donations "to support Steve Abraham's distance record attempt" are still in force on AUK. When do they stop? The graphic next to the option clearly states 2015. I think this needs to be removed or certainly explained as I'm sure many entrants have no idea what it's for or why it's continuing beyond 2015.

Write to the AUK Board about the donation scheme.

The Board has been very much in support of Steve and his record attempt, and we're keen to continue that support in the most appropriate way in future.

I've raised the subject with other Board members - I agree that we need to be clear about what is happening.

[Wobbly]

The Board has been very much in support of Steve and his record attempt

I think *everyone* has been very much in support of Steve and his record attempt.

I agree that we need to be clear about what is happening.

That, I think, is what people want to know most of all. I'm still baffled at the continuing silence other than an "I'm carrying on" from Steve.

[Shreds]

As an AUK, Steve will continue to have my support from the sidelines whatever he decides to do.

Ok from the outside, we can rationalise in a different way, and Ican fully understand why some folk are now verbalising their concerns etc. That is undoubtedly their prerogative.

AUK can change the wording on the entry forms, I am sure it will still garner donations.

One thing that no doubt keeps Steve going is his Audaxing training over the years......to just keep going.

He may have the 100k in mind, and let's face it, he probably won't get the chance again to have a crack at that distance in one go.

We might even see him increasing his speed as the Spring and Summer dawn?  As observers, we probably missed out knowing that the main time of concern was probably September when the dietary plan was being hatched, but took  time to implement? Only Steve truly knows. We will just have to await the book.

[crowriver]

As an AUK, Steve will continue to have my support from the sidelines whatever he decides to do.

Ok from the outside, we can rationalise in a different way, and Ican fully understand why some folk are now verbalising their concerns etc. That is undoubtedly their prerogative.

AUK can change the wording on the entry forms, I am sure it will still garner donations.

One thing that no doubt keeps Steve going is his Audaxing training over the years......to just keep going.

He may have the 100k in mind, and let's face it, he probably won't get the chance again to have a crack at that distance in one go.

We might even see him increasing his speed as the Spring and Summer dawn?  As observers, we probably missed out knowing that the main time of concern was probably September when the dietary plan was being hatched, but took  time to implement? Only Steve truly knows. We will just have to await the book.

+1

[Polar Bear]

Given the title of the thread, it would be illuminating to know what is actually being attempted now though. Well it would for me, to help maintain an interest.

I'm pretty certain that we know exactly what is happening and that the confusion has been caused largely by some posters in this thread.   

Steve started a second tilt at Tommy's record in August to run concurrently with his first tilt which was derailed by the moped incident.   At the time there were few, very few dissenting voices.   It is now January 1st.  The first tilt is offucially over and the second tilt is under way still.   

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Bullshit PB. Steve is cast-iron certain to fail to get the year record with his restart, regardless of brave statements.

Steve can't get the 100,000 record using the first attempt. The required mileage is much too great for the remaining days.

It would be bloody difficult for Steve to get it using the restart. The reduction from Tommy's 206 daily miles for a year to 200 daily miles for 500 days isn't very much. Steve would be going until late 2016.

Of course, Steve hasn't said anything about the 100,000 record.

[Greenbank]

the restart made sense until mid November when the tummy/diet problems started.

Every day he does less than 225 miles it makes less sense.

If he really does think he has 8 months (197mpd-ish) then it's going to be a shock when the proper sums are done. I've seen 8 months quoted both on Strava and Twitter so it doesn't seem a simple typo.

[TimC]

Given the title of the thread, it would be illuminating to know what is actually being attempted now though. Well it would for me, to help maintain an interest.

I'm pretty certain that we know exactly what is happening and that the confusion has been caused largely by some posters in this thread.   

Steve started a second tilt at Tommy's record in August to run concurrently with his first tilt which was derailed by the moped incident.   At the time there were few, very few dissenting voices.   It is now January 1st.  The first tilt is offucially over and the second tilt is under way still.   

There were very few dissenting voices (were there any?) because everyone hoped that Steve was now well and that he could achieve the speeds and daily distances required. Against the evidence, we went on hoping that a miracle would happen and Steve would suddenly find the speed to bring the challenge alive. Then there was dietgate, and the world fell out of his bottom taking most realistic hopes with it.

The second attempt is still under way, but few would give it any chance of succeeding. It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either. As I said earlier, perhaps he's going now for a personal 365-day record, or just to be the second fastest to 100,000 miles. Who knows? We don't, but I'm sure we all wish him well.

However, I won't financially support an essentially aimless ride.

[Ningishzidda]

We'll invent a new record such as 'Most consecutive days of bicycle Brevet de Randonneurs."

Steve can carry on and set something spectacular.

[crowriver]

So much negativity here.

If folk don't wish to continue supporting Steve's attempt on the record financially, that's up to them of course.
What I don't understand is all the grumping, whining and general bad mouthing going on.

Happy New Year everyone. Cheer up!

Oh, and allez Steve! 

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.

[PAC]

So much negativity here.

If folk don't wish to continue supporting Steve's attempt on the record financially, that's up to them of course.
What I don't understand is all the grumping, whining and general bad mouthing going on.

Happy New Year everyone. Cheer up!

Oh, and allez Steve! 

Agreed

[Ham]

Steve's attempt has looked to me more like the work of local council. Carried out in an atmosphere of small-scale politics, and constantly slipping behind the schedule. The main things holding it together have been a conspicuous display of loyalty, and Steve's unflinching commitment to the task.

That's pretty much what I have been musing since the Moped Moment, although from the flip side - that is, looking at the evident absence of a senior manager in the team.

There's a reason that Chief Exec's are paid as much as they are - it's because they are supposed to be worth it. That doesn't mean to say that just putting someone in charge and paying them gets results, it really doesn't. In good or average times the failings of the mediocre or worse are often covered up, in bad times they and their organisations fail.

For a long while I felt diffident about expressing this criticism because, at the beginning and end of the day the guys who are helping out are volunteers who have given shedloads of their time and I am certain are doing their level best with the best of motivations. However responsibility ultimately ends at the team leader, clearly one of the most experienced long distance cyclists around, but without the critical skills needed to lead this effort. That. Needs. To. Change. For Steve's sake. Steve is slogging his guts out, pedalling unbelievable miles each day, he deserves the best chance to help him achieve what he wants - whatever that might be. The current Team are not up to it an should augment their skills and/or time available with whatever is needed. Funds exist and much more could be raised.

[simonp]

the restart made sense until mid November when the tummy/diet problems started.

Every day he does less than 225 miles it makes less sense.

If he really does think he has 8 months (197mpd-ish) then it's going to be a shock when the proper sums are done. I've seen 8 months quoted both on Strava and Twitter so it doesn't seem a simple typo.

Steve was exhausted in the summer. A restart was required because it was obvious by then that he did not have the pace to make up the lost ground. I walked in on Steve the start of the Mersey Roads and I don't think I've ever seen anyone look more tired. He gave a massive yawn and didn't really respond to my hello. Later when he was riding the event - he was very very slow. Speaking to others helping or riding the event, there was a common view that he was riding way too slowly.

Steve was still saying back then that he thought he could do it. That did not seem realistic to me any more. The restart looked like it suggested it had finally sunk in, and a sensible decision was taken.

The 2000 + miles he's now below, the speeds, etc, look exactly like that period. By the end of the winter, unless there is a significant change soon, the deficit will be 4000 miles and my gut feeling is, it will need months of more then 250mpd to get back to parity by the end.

[Peter]

It's a little depressing to see opposing views to "My country right or wrong" decried as negativity.  They are alternatives.

[mattc]

Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.

I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.

We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...

[Wowbagger]

the restart made sense until mid November when the tummy/diet problems started.

Every day he does less than 225 miles it makes less sense.

If he really does think he has 8 months (197mpd-ish) then it's going to be a shock when the proper sums are done. I've seen 8 months quoted both on Strava and Twitter so it doesn't seem a simple typo.

I wished him a happy new year on Facebook and in the same post pointed out that he was a month out. He "liked" the post. I assume that means that he realised that when he said he had 8 months and 7 days left that he was wrong.

[αdαmsκι]

Steve has done something I would never even dream of doing because I wouldn't have the mental strength to tackle this challenge. However, the aim is to beat Tommy's record, and I'd assume the new record that Kurt is likely to set. Here is why I think this isn't going to happen, based on some simple calculations.

According to Jo's site Steve on the second attempt has an average speed of 14.5 mph, and the first attempt was ridden at 14.1 mph.

As of 30^th Dec. Steve needs 215.6 miles per day to match Tommy's record.

Now if one assumes in a typical day 7½ hours is spent sleeping, 45 minutes is spent in the morning getting ready (showering, eating breakfast etc.) 45 minutes is spent in the evening eating dinner, uploading gpx files to Strava etc. & 45 minutes per day is spent not moving because of traffic lights, buying food, toilet stops etc. then this means Steve can cycle for 14¼ hours per day.

215.6 miles in 14¼ hours is an average speed of 15.1 mph. That's 0.6 mph faster than he's moving at the moment. That doesn't sound like much, but it means Steve finishes ~1,900 miles behind Tommy's record. Close but no cigar.

Now assuming Kurt does 76,000 miles Steve then needs 219.8 miles per day. Using the same assumptions as above results in Steve needing to average 15.4 mph to get beyond 76,000 miles.

Factual conclusion: Steve needs to get faster.

Jo's site also says Steve has spent 55% of the second attempt moving, which means on an average day he's spending 13 hours & 12 minutes cycling, compared to my assumption of 14 hours & 15 minutes. So to ride for 13 hours & 12 minutes per day & still beat Tommy's record he needs to be doing 16.3 mph. To get beyond 76,000 miles he needs to ride at 16.7 mph. Remember, at the moment he's doing 14.5 mph.

Factual conclusion: Steve needs to get a lot faster.

Now, my thoughts. Steve isn't going to increase his average speed by 2.2 miles per hour in order to match 76,000 miles because that's a massive increase, so therefore the attempt at the record is doomed. That isn't me being negative, and it isn't an attack on Steve. It's just my opinion based on some calculations.

[SoreTween]

It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.

Not true.

Working backwards from the restart Steve's daily average peaks at 192.2 for the 77 days in the run up to Aug 8, it seems logical to include those days in a theoretical 100k.  Taking those 77 days plus the current attempt gives an average of 191.3 over 223 days.  Steve would need to average 207.7 for the rest of the rebooted attempt plus a further 57 days to take the 100K record.  That's the original Tommy Godwin average plus a few minutes per day which is a whole lot more viable than the Searvogel average plus nearly an hour he needs for the year record.

[Bianchi Boy]

All these comments assume that we know what Steve's objectives are. If it simply to ride he bike each day and not worry about the real world he has achieved that. 

Another short day is on the way and if he is going for the record he is further behind. On the other hand he has another day without the real world bothering him.

We need a statement of intent, what is going on? If we are just looking at a middle aged man cycling around and not having to bother about the real world I will not watch for another day.

Also has anyone thought about the way this was planned. I work in computers and one sure fire way to fail is to plan a project from the top down. We need this by then and all these things by this date. Success comes from understanding what you can achieve in small pieces and then putting these together and seeing how far you can get. All the spreadsheets that were put together at the start look to me like top down planning, there appeared to be very little attention paid to what could be achieved on a day to day basis. The current situation looks the same. All I have to do is ride 225 miles a day I can do that. Not I need eight hours sleep, 14 hours riding, how fast am I going, how many miles will I achieve - oh dear I will continue to fall behind. We are coming up to the worse eight weeks of the year. Has Steve factored in a lost week because of snow / ice? This would be picked up in bottom up planning but seen as an irritation for anyone doing top down planning.

Please see Adamski's post above - that is bottom up planning. What can I achieve in a day and expand. Now what is Steve trying to achieve? Statement of intent is required, not silence.

BB

[rafletcher]

Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.

I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.

We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...

Matt, your support for Steve is admirable - so what do you think (if indeed you wish to speculate - you may not) he is doing? He's taken in excess of 9 hours to do half the mileage he needs to do daily to match a record that Kurt will ( all things being equal) break in the next few days.  Do you feel (I assume you must) that Steve will be able to overtake it come August? If yes, then what are your numbers?

I don't think anyone here wishes Steve ill (though not being an AUK/insider I don't know what undercurrents might be at play, and perhaps you do) but (and I'd be happy to be) I'd personally be astounded if he manges it. If, of course, that's still his aim, which brings us back to the "what's he doing now" question, and our difference of opinion as to whether financial support merits an explanation.  I think it does. YMMV 

[rafletcher]

Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.

I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.

We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...

[Mr Larrington]

Is every time an athlete pounds down the track doing the 100 metres or a time trialist hunches over the bars a failure if ultimately they don't set a new record?   

It's all about beating the other guy and if Usain Bolt wins the gold medal then I imagine he's not too bothered about how long it took him to do it.  In this event the other guy, at least for the next few days, is Tommy Godwin and if you don't exceed his distance then yes, you have failed.

[Arry-R]

Steve has done something I would never even dream of doing because I wouldn't have the mental strength to tackle this challenge. However, the aim is to beat Tommy's record, and I'd assume the new record that Kurt is likely to set. Here is way I think this isn't going to happen, based on some simple calculations.

According to Jo's site Steve on the second attempt has an average speed of 14.5 mph, and the first attempt was ridden at 14.1 mph.

As of 30^th Dec. Steve needs 215.6 miles per day to match Tommy's record.

Now if one assumes in a typical day 7½ hours is spent sleeping, 45 minutes is spent in the morning getting ready (showering, eating breakfast etc.) 45 minutes is spent in the evening eating dinner, uploading gpx files to Strava etc. & 45 minutes per day is spent not moving because of traffic lights, buying food, toilet stops etc. then this means Steve can cycle for 14¼ hours per day.

215.6 miles in 14¼ hours is an average speed of 15.1 mph. That's 0.6 mph faster than he's moving at the moment. That doesn't sound like much, but it means Steve finishes ~1,900 miles behind Tommy's record. Close but no cigar.

Now assuming Kurt does 76,000 miles Steve then needs 219.8 miles per day. Using the same assumptions as above results in Steve needing to average 15.4 mph to get beyond 76,000 miles.

Factual conclusion: Steve needs to get faster.

Jo's site also says Steve has spent 55% of the second attempt moving, which means on an average day he's spending 13 hours & 12 minutes cycling, compared to my assumption of 14 hours & 15 minutes. So to ride for 13 hours & 12 minutes per day & still beat Tommy's record he needs to be doing 16.3 mph. To get beyond 76,000 miles he needs to ride at 16.7 mph. Remember, at the moment he's doing 14.5 mph.

Factual conclusion: Steve needs to get a lot faster.

Now, my thoughts. Steve isn't going to increase his average speed by 2.2 miles per hour in order to match 76,000 miles because that's a massive increase, so therefore the attempt at the record is doomed. That isn't me being negative, and it isn't an attack on Steve. It's just my opinion based on some calculations.






PLUS ONE.   Well done for such detailed calculations