[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[hillbilly]

I thought that post was interesting and suggested something I suspected.  Which is that if Steve hadn't been slammed by a person on a moped, it is likely a lot of the doubting voices would have been proclaiming Steve's strategy as a triumph. 

The only bit I thought RR was too strong on is that Steve hasn't shown he "is" capable of the record.  Only that he "may be".  He never really got going so his sustained threshold remains speculative.

[Greenbank]

As LWaB pointed out, he was managing to stick to the schedule only at the expense of sleep, he wasn't going as fast as he had planned to so was having to ride longer than planned, this wasn't going to be sustainable and (from memory) the cracks were just starting to show (later starts, slower average speeds, some shorter days).

I was going to have a more thorough delve into the data (including average speeds) next week when the holidays are over.

[Jaded]

Which is a great personal target but ain't a record attempt. As soon as it stops being a record attempt, it's just a ride. A bloody long one, but really becomes just for personal pride.

Just like Audax then 

[Frank9755]

As LWaB pointed out, he was managing to stick to the schedule only at the expense of sleep, he wasn't going as fast as he had planned to so was having to ride longer than planned, this wasn't going to be sustainable and (from memory) the cracks were just starting to show (later starts, slower average speeds, some shorter days).

I was going to have a more thorough delve into the data (including average speeds) next week when the holidays are over.

That's right. His plan was to start increasing the daily mileages significantly in March and he wasn't able to get on the trajectory he had hoped for. I remember discussing it with LWAB on the Kennet Valley Run, early last March (shortly before disaster struck) and it was clear at that point he was falling behind plan because he was riding too slow.

[TimC]

Which is a great personal target but ain't a record attempt. As soon as it stops being a record attempt, it's just a ride. A bloody long one, but really becomes just for personal pride.

Just like Audax then 

Indeed!

*Sits back and awaits requests for funding for every-man-and-his-dog's 50km BPs*

*Better idea - starts a funding drive for my own 50km BPs!!*

[Arry-R]

Just like Audax then 
[/quote]




 

[IJL]

The post mortems are  premature with 7 months to go, while TG is well behind Godwin's average, he is well in front of Godwins actual milage for this point.  I know the target is Kurt's mileage but if Godwin could increase has daily distances in the 2nd half of the year then hopefully so can TG.

The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.

[Freya]

Yes, a good effort. However it is still below a standard Godwin and  below what he needs to do as an average. Encouraging, nevertheless.

[yanto]

The post mortems are  premature with 7 months to go, while TG is well behind Godwin's average, he is well in front of Godwins actual milage for this point.  I know the target is Kurt's mileage but if Godwin could increase has daily distances in the 2nd half of the year then hopefully so can TG.

The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.

 I don't see it as a Post Mortem, more a long term prognosis based upon historical facts (both Steve's performance and likelyhood of winter setting in), soon to be realised change of goalpost and perception of team performance.

If, and it is an "if" Steve can up the pace through whatever methods are deemed appropriate by him, the weather gods are on his side, the team provide all the correct support then, possibly, just maybe Steve can achieve the record/ new record.

As for yesterday's performance, lets see if it can be repeated and increased because that is what is required, only time will tell!

[Greenbank]

The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.

I wouldn't say that, those that want him to stop now think that doing so is the most likely way for him to eventually succeed after some rest and a regroup before a restart.

[TimC]

The post mortems are  premature with 7 months to go, while TG is well behind Godwin's average, he is well in front of Godwins actual milage for this point.  I know the target is Kurt's mileage but if Godwin could increase has daily distances in the 2nd half of the year then hopefully so can TG.

The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.

I don't know what time Steve posted on Strava, but he finished the ride at around midnight, so I doubt many have seen it yet. 200 miles is indeed a good step in the right direction, and it's very pleasing to see Steve's form returning. However, it took 15:36 for that 200, which is not a length of riding day that anyone can sustain for very long. If he's to get adequate rest and achieve the record, he needs to be consistently getting up to around 210-220 miles in 14 hours or so - and every day he doesn't achieve that makes the remaining task harder. As remarkable as 200 miles is, if he were to repeat that every day for the remainder of the 2nd attempt, he'd be around 2000 miles further behind Kurt than he is today.

These numbers are mind-boggling!

[jackt]

As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.

Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)

http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3

[Von Broad]

These numbers are mind-boggling!

They most certainly are.
The whole challenge is on a knife edge right from day one to the moment it's all over. And as we can see from Kurt's performance, you're never really far away from that edge.

I wonder if, and [I can understand how easy a trap it might be to fall into], that after getting back thoroughly exhausted from being out there all day and you've done say 175 for the day, how easy it might be to think, "175, well that's about 35 miles or so short, so what's 35 into 365, blimey, it's only a fraction of a mile each day to make up over the year, I can easily get that back, no problem"'. Which over one day in a year is true. But when the loses accumulate then obviously it starts to take on a different picture.

It's so unforgivingly relentless, so punishing a timetable, with so little room for loss, it just has to be executed with a kind of almost military precision in order to stand any chance whatsoever of succeeding.

[Justin(e)]

Any chance if Steve breaking TG's 100,000 record?

[LMT]

Any chance if Steve breaking TG's 100,000 record?

Nope, I asked this earlier in the thread.

[mattc]

TimC did this very helpful analysis:

It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.

Not true.

Working backwards from the restart Steve's daily average peaks at 192.2 for the 77 days in the run up to Aug 8, it seems logical to include those days in a theoretical 100k.  Taking those 77 days plus the current attempt gives an average of 191.3 over 223 days.  Steve would need to average 207.7 for the rest of the rebooted attempt plus a further 57 days to take the 100K record.  That's the original Tommy Godwin average plus a few minutes per day which is a whole lot more viable than the Searvogel average plus nearly an hour he needs for the year record.

Firstly, the aim of the ride was the HAM'R - 75,065 miles in 365 days. The 100k record (in 500 days) was secondary. On the first attempt, Steve managed 65,565 miles, which leaves 34,435 miles in the remaining 135 days - 255 miles a day. Not going to happen. If he really wished to run a second attempt on the 100k contemporaneously with the second HAM'R attempt (I can't see why he would, but this is Steve!!), he has 73,081 miles to match Tommy in the remaining 353 days - 207 miles every day, as you say. It's certainly possible, but his speed needs to increase considerably above anything he's achieved so far (see several posts passim). I'm not sure if the 100k is being run under the UCMA rules, or is effectively unofficial - I haven't found any reference to it on the UCMA site. Anyway, Steve's initial target distance for HAM'R was 80,000 miles. At that pace (219mpd, which seems well beyond the possible now!)), Steve would have been aiming to break the 100k barrier in 457 days. To achieve that along with the second HAM'R attempt would now need 235.7mpd. Of course, beating it by one day would be sufficient - call that 208mpd from today. But that would take him to mid-December 2016, or a smidge under 2 years pretty much constant riding. I know Steve loves being on the bike, but, really?

[my bold]
(I havent checked these numbers!)

[Von Broad]

Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

Jack, thanks so much for posting your interview with Idai, and thanks equally for asking all the right questions.
Very welcome and very interesting.

[TimC]

TimC did this very helpful analysis:

It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.

Not true.

Working backwards from the restart Steve's daily average peaks at 192.2 for the 77 days in the run up to Aug 8, it seems logical to include those days in a theoretical 100k.  Taking those 77 days plus the current attempt gives an average of 191.3 over 223 days.  Steve would need to average 207.7 for the rest of the rebooted attempt plus a further 57 days to take the 100K record.  That's the original Tommy Godwin average plus a few minutes per day which is a whole lot more viable than the Searvogel average plus nearly an hour he needs for the year record.

Firstly, the aim of the ride was the HAM'R - 75,065 miles in 365 days. The 100k record (in 500 days) was secondary. On the first attempt, Steve managed 65,565 miles, which leaves 34,435 miles in the remaining 135 days - 255 miles a day. Not going to happen. If he really wished to run a second attempt on the 100k contemporaneously with the second HAM'R attempt (I can't see why he would, but this is Steve!!), he has 73,081 miles to match Tommy in the remaining 353 days - 207 miles every day, as you say. It's certainly possible, but his speed needs to increase considerably above anything he's achieved so far (see several posts passim). I'm not sure if the 100k is being run under the UCMA rules, or is effectively unofficial - I haven't found any reference to it on the UCMA site. Anyway, Steve's initial target distance for HAM'R was 80,000 miles. At that pace (219mpd, which seems well beyond the possible now!)), Steve would have been aiming to break the 100k barrier in 457 days. To achieve that along with the second HAM'R attempt would now need 235.7mpd. Of course, beating it by one day would be sufficient - call that 208mpd from today. But that would take him to mid-December 2016, or a smidge under 2 years pretty much constant riding. I know Steve loves being on the bike, but, really?

[my bold]
(I havent checked these numbers!)

I should add a bit to that, really. If Steve intends to beat both Tommy and Kurt in the one-year challenge, he has to aim for about 77,000 miles minimum. Taking day 147 as the start of the calculation, and using today's figures from the HAM'R website, as I did in the post Matt quotes, that leaves 49,880 miles to achieve in the remaining 218 days to end of 8 August 2016. That's an average of 228.8 mpd from now until 8 August 2016. Leaving aside how likely that is, at that average pace from now, Steve would achieve the remaining 72,880 miles to 100k in 319 days from today (or 456 days from 9 Aug 14), and would smash the 100k record on 19 November 2016.

(Edited to update to today's HAM'R numbers)

[LMT]

As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.

Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)

http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3

Thanks for that, so in a nutshell:-

Steve's kidneys were put under stress due to the high amounts of sugar consumed in his diet.

Hence the new diet and following doctors orders he reduced his miles.

Steve's been a bit frustrated with some of the set backs that have gone on.

People have been asked for help but have not delivered when it matters.

Everyone within the team puts forward thier POV, but Idai and Hoppo don't really talk to each other.

If things carry on the way they are, then they will look at thier position at the end of the month and ask if it's worth continuing.

But then in the next lot of answers, it's implied that what Steve does is inspiring and he'll carry on regardless until he is ready to quit.

[jackt]

@LMT: Correct in parts but I don't think that's an entirely accurate summary!

After hearing Idai stress a number of times that Steve does have a plan (and, note, that he plans to share it), I went back to examine Steve's original mileage schedule for the 1st Attempt, see: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation

From my calculations it does appear that if he can stick to those planned mileages until 7 August 2016, he will have - just - surpassed Godwin and will be nip and tuck with Kurt's likely total. (I could be wrong - someone may wish to double check.)

That is a very big if, though. The proposed mileages for the summer months are enormous, exceeding what Godwin and Bennett were riding in their crazy summer of '39 when they had pacers, motorised support and may have been drafting lorries all along. With hindsight, it's odd that there were so few raised eyebrows at the schedule when Steve published it back in December 2014. His speeds thus far do not suggest that those summer mileages are possible, but then again, he's had terrible misfortunes and he evidently thinks he will ride himself into greater speeds, as originally planned.

One possibility is that the original schedule has been adapted, with Steve 'merely' matching Godwin through the summer, and riding closer to 200 mile averages in the winter and spring.

Either way, he'll have to do something that he's never done before, something neither Godwin or Kurt have done, but I suppose that's exactly what this whole record breaking business is all about.

[Charlie Boy]

Don't know who the Oneyeartimetrial.org.uk  website guru is, but perhaps Tommy's distance could be reset to count from Day *(August 8 equivalent). It's saying 235 miles at present as it has been set to count from 1 Jan which is no longer relevant.

[toontra]

After hearing Idai stress a number of times that Steve does have a plan (and, note, that he plans to share it), I went back to examine Steve's original mileage schedule for the 1st Attempt, see: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation

From my calculations it does appear that if he can stick to those planned mileages until 7 August 2016, he will have - just - surpassed Godwin and will be nip and tuck with Kurt's likely total. (I could be wrong - someone may wish to double check.)

That is a very big if, though. The proposed mileages for the summer months are enormous, exceeding what Godwin and Bennett were riding in their crazy summer of '39 when they had pacers, motorised support and may have been drafting lorries all along. With hindsight, it's odd that there were so few raised eyebrows at the schedule when Steve published it back in December 2014. His speeds thus far do not suggest that those summer mileages are possible, but then again, he's had terrible misfortunes and he evidently thinks he will ride himself into greater speeds, as originally planned.

One possibility is that the original schedule has been adapted, with Steve 'merely' matching Godwin through the summer, and riding closer to 200 mile averages in the winter and spring.

Either way, he'll have to do something that he's never done before, something neither Godwin or Kurt have done, but I suppose that's exactly what this whole record breaking business is all about.

Excellent summary Jack, and thanks for getting the inside story.  As you will gather there is a great deal of speculation going on here!

[TimC]

As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.

Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.

You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)

http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3

That's a really interesting interview, and I don't think anyone can question Idai's commitment to the record having listened to it! Stuff like that does make the whole thing more personal and more engaging than web pages and charts and discussions on here. It will be very interesting to hear Steve's revised schedule when he gets around to sharing it, though I agree that it's unlikely to be very much modified from his original other than smoothing out the peaks and troughs. It's particularly good to hear that he's now feeling well and that a reassessment of the chances of success will be made at the end of the month in the light of his progress having returned to health. I won't restate my position; I'm prepared to accept that Steve's not riding himself into greater illness and, that being the case, I'll watch with interest - and reserve the right to comment based on the numbers achieved. Notwithstanding that, I wish Steve all the luck and following winds he can get, and I really hope he can stick two fingers up to all of us come August.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

I've listened, of course.

I'm glad to know that a review of progress and the possibility of stopping is on the cards at the end of January. They should have done that at the end of last year but hey ho.

Nailing colours to the mast - Steve won't average 220 daily miles for any week in January and will find it difficult to average 200+ daily miles each week. He'll be further behind Tommy and Kurt at the end of January than he is now.

[mattc]

Any realistic schedule for a UK-based attempt would be summer-loaded.

The skew in Steve's original schedule - with hindsight - now looks ridiculously large, but the idea was bang-on. (there is no way I'm going to state an "ideal" schedule!)