[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[Ben T]

Interesting stats. If he made no change to average speed, he would have to do (76000-27827)/14.65 = 3288 hours, which is almost exactly 15 hours a day. He could theoretically do that.
However that's average, and if he's forced to do less in "winter" then it pushes the average required in summer up. Can't really get away with setting off at gone 9 am for long though?

Driving 300 km to get a tail wind would be quite hard without hitting hills (and/or the drive back involving the M25 which could push it the wrong side of 5 hours! )

[Kim]

So basically, if he's being driven it needs to be a vehicle he can sleep in a la Kurt, or perhaps shorter hops (to gain some gravitational advantage perhaps?) while he eats...

[Sergeant Pluck]

Thanks greenbank.

It seems then that a good part of the enormous advantage of a camper + driver is not so much headwind avoidance but faffage reduction: having everything to hand at the start and end of each day (clean kit, charged batteries, computer and mapping resources etc.).

Is there any information on how long Steve spends not moving during the day? Reducing this might be one of the more readily available means of gaining time while maintaining sleep.

[toontra]

There surely has to be a contingency element included in any projection.  The Sisyphean nature of the challenge means that any day's shortfall, for whatever reason, had an adverse effect on subsequent days.  It's unrealistic to think there won't be some of these in a 7-month period.  Just looking at Jo's charts shows what a devastating effect a simple virus can have.

[Greenbank]

He has already spent the contingency on the losses due to illness and diet adaptation. That's the biggest reason why I think a rest and restart will ultimately be required. There's no scope for any further slippage in the current attempt.

But since a restart would be best made on 1/1/17 (to keep the 'calendar year' purists happy) he may as well have a go as there would be enough time to recover from August 7th 2016 until then anyway. Then, health aside, the only question is whether Steve would be up for another 12 months in the saddle after doing pretty much 19 months on and 5 months off.

[mcshroom]

I don't suppose we will be told, but Steve's creatinine level would be of interest wrt his kidney functionality. I know a bit about this sort of thing, for the wrong reasons. In a healthy male, creatinine (the waste product from muscle breakdown) should be at 0.7 to 1.2 mg/dL.

Kidney failure isn't a binary thing. You can, and do survive with much higher levels than this. Typically, dialysis patients range from about 6 to 12mg/dL.

You are using USAnian units rather than SI units in use in most of the world.
The breakdown of muscle to creatine and its conversion to creatinine is not a linear process. The levels of creatinine in both plasma and urine are affected much more by renal function than muscle breakdown.
The biggest single marker of acute muscle breakdown is myoglobin in urine, although it's unlikely you'd find a lab willing / able to measure it in the 21st century. It's generally a qualitative investigation.
Creatine Kinase levels can give an indication of muscle breakdown- particularly if you are looking at the MM isoenzyme- however in the case of someone like Steve I'd wonder if he's 'normalised' to a 'steady state' and his enzyme results would be back into the reference range for a heathy adult?
The creatinine is simply a marker of the renal damage - in itself it's a pretty benign substance. The damage is to the renal tubules through a variety of chemical and physiological effects - which is why both hydration and mineral intake are vital factors for endurance athletes.

Don't follow that these are USAninan units? The measurements are given in metric units, even if a deci-litre (100 ml) is not an SI graduation.

[Kim]

Don't follow that these are USAninan units? The measurements are given in metric units, even if a deci-litre (100 ml) is not an SI graduation.

I'm guessing that the leftpondians use mg/dl and we use mmol/l (or similar).  A source of confusion familiar to sufferers of dire beaties.

[red marley]

Is there any information on how long Steve spends not moving during the day? Reducing this might be one of the more readily available means of gaining time while maintaining sleep.

Yes, here's the full movement chart for Steve for 2015 (and Jan 1-2 2016). You can clearly see where it all begins to fall apart in November. Which of course is one of the reasons the challenge remains on a knife edge, but it also suggests that there is plenty of scope for improvement by cutting down on stopped time during the day. According to Idai's interview it was a change to on the bike snacking in ann effort to cut down on stopped time that ln part led to Steve's health issues. However, now, if the diet change has worked, he may be on a better footing for reduced daytime stops and sustainable nutrition.



(and the full sized version).

I've been measuring Steve's average moving speed by sampling at 5 minute intervals and only including moving time and average speed for those 5 minutes with real movement. This gives a slightly lower figure than those included on Strava, but the trend over time is what is important:



His speed has been slowly dropping since the restart although that had been masked slightly by decreasing his daytime stopped time. At least since his all-clear from the medics, his speed is climbing again. Also noteworthy is Kurt's increase in speed since doing Flatwood loops with the finish in sight.

This all points to an unlikely but not impossible chance of being able to take the record.

[MacB]

He has already spent the contingency on the losses due to illness and diet adaptation. That's the biggest reason why I think a rest and restart will ultimately be required. There's no scope for any further slippage in the current attempt.

But since a restart would be best made on 1/1/17 (to keep the 'calendar year' purists happy) he may as well have a go as there would be enough time to recover from August 7th 2016 until then anyway. Then, health aside, the only question is whether Steve would be up for another 12 months in the saddle after doing pretty much 19 months on and 5 months off.

Makes sense, also from what I can see Kurt seems to have been roughly quartering a lot of rides. If you break his day into 4 x 3hr stints then, with his average speeds, that means about 2.5hrs riding and a half hour break...rinse and repeat. If he does that for the first 3 stints then just rides until happy/knackered on the 4th, I make it that he has been able to keep to 14hrs and below ride/rest time daily. More importantly it means 10hrs down time and enough slack to be able to gear up and down as required.

Not sure how well the above applies to the full year but the routine, and loops, settled into in the latter months seem to follow this pattern.

[Wowbagger]

According to the UMCA HAMR Leader Board Kurt finished today on 75079 miles, which means he has already broken the record.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

It does say at the top of the graph "This (unofficial) information is updated every 3 hours, starting at 00:00 UTC."

I wonder if there is some mistake. Kurt's ride, according to his own reckoning, wasn't enough today. Today he did 302.8km, according to Strava.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/spreadsheet.php gives the same figure, presumably from the same source.

Edit: Kurt makes it pretty plain on Facebook that he expects to break the record between 2.30 and 4.30 tomorrow afternoon, so I have no idea what the UMCA is up to.

[teamcinzano]

It looks like the HAM'R data had an extra 160 miles entered on day 314 for Kurt. That accounts for the discrepancy.

[MikeFromLFE]

Don't follow that these are USAninan units? The measurements are given in metric units, even if a deci-litre (100 ml) is not an SI graduation.

I'm guessing that the leftpondians use mg/dl and we use mmol/l (or similar).  A source of confusion familiar to sufferers of dire beaties.

Correct - most of the worl use molar units

[orraloon]

FB posts by Kurt state just under 140 miles to go, expects to pass the marker between 2 and 4 EST, followed by a 'victory lap' then beers...

[Sergeant Pluck]

... but it also suggests that there is plenty of scope for improvement by cutting down on stopped time during the day.

Thanks so much jo.

[simonp]

Kurt should save the beers until the 10th.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Steve can only cut down his stopped time during the day with intensive support. He is trying to do it 'Audax fashion' with food from commercial establishments and very limited support and it is eating up (see what I did there?) too much time when he should be riding.

Combine that with late starts from overnight stops in hotels (or from home) and Steve cannot ride for sufficient hours each day. Put that behaviour together with a low average speed and the daily distances just aren't being done. Sure, there is a day or 2 or 3 which get close to the mark but he isn't able to do so for even a week at a time, let alone for months on end.

He had the opportunity for exactly that intensive 24hr support from an experienced Steve support crew between Christmas and New Year (to see if it would be enough to make the difference) and his team said "No thanks."

[Greenbank]

Anything new to add LWaB?

[Jaded]

I wonder if anyone has offered to help Steve over Christmas and new year, but got no response, followed by a no thank you?

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Anything new to add LWaB?

Is the team offering anything new? Or are they just going 'same old, same old' and watching Steve grind himself away in a hopeless quest to save his 2nd attempt?

[mattc]

It's good to see this thread has now calmed down btw

Slightly. For about a day.   

Doing that interview has had as much effect as Chris Froome publishing his data; nothing will silence the hard-core sceptics.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

The mindless 'Go Steve' chant is putting Steve into the same position he was in at the end of last year - a failed attempt on the year record.

[andyoxon]

The mindless 'Go Steve' chant is putting Steve into the same position he was in at the end of last year - a failed attempt on the year record.

and what about all the Strava kudos, and well wishing comments..?

[Jaded]

It's good to see this thread has now calmed down btw

Slightly. For about a day.   

Doing that interview has had as much effect as Chris Froome publishing his data; nothing will silence the hard-core septics.

FTFY

[LittleWheelsandBig]

What about the Strava kudos and well-wishing comments? The desires of some folk for a record-bestowing fairy to grant Steve his wish are pretty much useless.

Do not think that I wish Steve ill. I want nothing more than for him to take the record and saying in August 'I told you so' won't be any compensation. I want Steve to fulfil his talent and long-held desire to actually take the record. Another gallant defeat won't do that.

[Exit Stage Left]

I don't think that Steve's ride needs a realistic chance of reaching the record to sustain itself. I did wonder at what point it might take off in the direction of Forrest Gump's three year run. That was alluded to in the Daily Mirror article shortly before the moped accident, the one in the 'weird news' section.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/meet-cyclist-bidding-ride-75000-5420065

I think that the 'underdog' component can continue to garner occasional media interest. Idai and Hoppo have sufficient experience of publicity to keep the story ticking over, and that's all to the good in terms of promoting Audax. At some point Steve will stop, as in the film.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgnJ8GpsBG8