[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[jackt]

I asked Idai about whether a 3rd attempt had ever been considered. The answer I got - 'we don't think about that because that's thinking about quitting' - wasn't really satisfactory, though a quite understandable answer from an official spokesman as opposed to from Steve himself.

It may be that Steve has ruled out a 3rd attempt, I can certainly see why he might! Which means this is it. And if that's so, I can understand why he will wish to persist, even as the chances of breaking the record become ever more vanishingly small. Perhaps wants to 'give it his best' shot with the audax style approach, set a PB that he can be proud of, even if he's only 3rd or 4th in the rankings. Come August he'll be a free man, and able to get on with the rest of his life.

If he has countenanced a 3rd attempt, one with a radically different approach, i.e. not 'audax style', more Kurt style with more support on the road, then it does seem irrational to persist with this attempt. The time would better spent getting organised, recovered, getting in some specific training so he starts in the best possible condition for the task ahead, refining his diet, and setting everything in place for 1 Jan 2017.

None of us are inside Steve's head so this is all conjecture, but the Year Record is sporting spectacle and that's what we're encouraged to do. One thing I am certain is that Steve is big enough and ugly enough not to let any chatter on the internet discourage him from what he wants to do, or to give him false hopes. Ultimately, as Idai said to me, it's his life and he's living it. Viva Steve!

[jochta]

He's decided to continue for the time being whilst there still is a chance of beating the record. The interview made it clear that if you don't try then you can't possibly succeed. The feelings of regret for not even giving it a shot could be overwhelming. I can understand why throwing in the towel with no certain plan of trying again in the future would be very difficult.

So whilst he continues I wish him well and that he remains safe. I think it's going to be extremely difficult to achieve, the numbers are stacked against him, but maybe he can and there is still a small chance he can succeed.

[jackt]

The language of packing, quitting, throwing in the towel, etc doesn't really help. It might seem like the easiest thing to do is to stop, and Steve's mind and body must be desperate to rest. But to stop with the intention of starting again, and not only to start again but to admit that you got it wrong before, to question everything you thought and did, and to spend time and effort devising a new plan that has a greater chance of breaking the record, well that's not a weak thing to do, that takes some courage.

I'm not saying that's what Steve should do, but that it's not reasonable to frame the dilemma as a battle between courage and weakness.

[Wowbagger]

Some bloke said this:

The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.

He also said this:

After climbing a great hill, one only finds that there are many more hills to climb.

I don't think he was a cyclist.

[jackt]

More from Idai here on the CTC website:

http://www.ctc.org.uk/article/campaigns-guide/steve

Includes elaboration on 'the plan', at least in terms of target mileages:

“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."

[Sergeant Pluck]

He's decided to continue for the time being whilst there still is a chance of beating the record. The interview made it clear that if you don't try then you can't possibly succeed. The feelings of regret for not even giving it a shot could be overwhelming. I can understand why throwing in the towel with no certain plan of trying again in the future would be very difficult.

So whilst he continues I wish him well and that he remains safe. I think it's going to be extremely difficult to achieve, the numbers are stacked against him, but maybe he can and there is still a small chance he can succeed.

And there is a plan to reassess at the end of this month. In the meantime he deserves every encouragement. I don't think there is anything mindless about such support. We all know how the numbers are looking but it remains possible, for now, that things could change.

The option of a set loop with pre-arranged and pre-prepared food has to be given further consideration, assuming that the idea of a camper + driver / cook has been rejected.

[Legs]

It's interesting that Foghat was widely vilified (at least, by those who are too myopic and fanboiish to see the truth in everything else he/she wrote) for this comment:

Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....

While no-one even responded to Ben T's comment:

Could it be that his intention is now not to break any record, but simply to do nothing but cycling for evermore, every day - for ever?

I hope that Steve is given appropriate support and advice - which takes into account what he will have achieved and what the new projected mileage requirement will be - when the time comes for reassessment at the end of January.  Mindless encouragement is the last thing that he needs.

[Exit Stage Left]

The media environment for long distance cycling is an interesting one. Hoppo is best known for being the first British RAAM finisher, few now remembers what his position was. His LEJOGLE record attempt a few years ago was in bad weather and he packed. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/endurance-cyclist-chris-hopkinson-launches-world-record-1700-mile-lands-end-to-john-ogroats-and-back-8557151.html

January is a time of year when press releases are welcome in media offices, as there's not much going on. The internet magnifies their effect for supporters, who don't see where they feature in the news outlets.

[red marley]

It's interesting that Foghat was widely vilified (at least, by those who are too myopic and fanboiish to see the truth in everything else he/she wrote) for this comment:

Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....

While no-one even responded to Ben T's comment:

Could it be that his intention is now not to break any record, but simply to do nothing but cycling for evermore, every day - for ever?

Possibly because both are unfounded speculation that are flatly contradicted by what Steve himself has stated.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."

If he is targeting 205 daily miles by March, that can't be the total mileage/ days since restart (that would require 230? daily from now). It has to be targeting consistently averaging 205 daily miles for a week.

After that date, Steve would have to cover impossible daily distances (somewhere around 250? Haven't crunched the numbers yet) to actually get the record.

[Sergeant Pluck]

Possibly because both are unfounded speculation that are flatly contradicted by what Steve himself has stated.

I suspect that the cause of that speculation may have been at least partly the last couple of paragraphs of this Guardian interview, which was also what contributed to my own recent period of doubt about the undertaking.

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/dec/25/steve-abraham-cycling-year-in-the-saddle-for-record-chaser

[Jack_P]

Stop now and have to go find a job, or have 8 months of cycling (despite the weather) I know what I'd do, record or not. 

[zigzag]

the way i see it now is that Steve will continue to ride in his usual audax style until august to see how many miles he can get and hopefully exceed the first attempt's mileage. yes, it might be painful to admit that the record is out of reach, but why not give it your best shot and see what you can achieve anyway. it's his ride and ultimately he decides how to ride it, what it means to him and what will he do afterwards.

[TheRedEyeJedi]

If this is it, and there is to be no new attempt - then I completely see the sense in going for it and seeing what happens.   With a reassessment at the end of the month.

What I don't understand is why you would then keep plugging on with the same strategy that has already failed to hit the numbers he now needs.

I also have no idea why the idea of vehicle transfers is now being investigated when all the stats show there is not enough hours in the day for vehicle transfers to be effective in this country.... these would have been useful during the storms but its too late for this now.   It simply takes too long to drive a car with Steve inside to where he needs to be to take advantage of the wind.   He wont have time to sleep or recover if this approach is taken.  This is only workable with an RV and a committed assistant - he has neither of these things so this should be ruled out.

The only way Kurt has sustained big days safely, for weeks on end is by riding a flat, fast loop with good riders helping him.   He has had to break out of this onto roads for the good of his sanity but its those flat loops that have gained him the record

I can not see why this is against any "Audax" philosophy(much more noble than vehicle transfers imo).   He can keep the same bike, doesn't need an RV and he can cycle to and from the loop each day.    He just needs to find a decent loop either on closed or open roads (I would say open is better as it allows other riders to help him).   Personally I would like to see him dropped off and picked up every day from the 'loop' for a month and encourage riders to turn up any time and ride with him.  Use existing funds to pay for massage and good food every evening and even pay for food to be delivered to him on the loop.

If he is going to carry on - do it properly and have a real crack with the money that is left.     

I do not see any other way he can safely increase his speed to 16-17mph for months on end which is what is now needed for a successful effort

[simonp]

Possibly because both are unfounded speculation that are flatly contradicted by what Steve himself has stated.

I suspect that the cause of that speculation may have been at least partly the last couple of paragraphs of this Guardian interview, which was also what contributed to my own recent period of doubt about the undertaking.

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/dec/25/steve-abraham-cycling-year-in-the-saddle-for-record-chaser

Perhaps knee-jerk reactions to such thoughts aren't the best way to approach supporting Steve. I think in particular the comment from Foghat isn't that dissimilar to something I thought Steve had said in an interview sometime in mid 2015 - I can't find it now to check. Of course, that was before the restart, and was in the context of the moped having derailed his first attempt.

[simonp]

More from Idai here on the CTC website:

http://www.ctc.org.uk/article/campaigns-guide/steve

Includes elaboration on 'the plan', at least in terms of target mileages:

“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."

In that interview Idai appears to have claimed this:

"his average riding distance reduced by 10 miles per day in December, from 205 to 195."

I'm trying to make sense of that comment. It doesn't match reality for his average speed for December (he lost over 1000 miles vs the Godwin average in December - I make his December average 161mpd). If perhaps it means the average for the whole attempt dropped from 205 to 195 then again that's incorrect - it dropped from 197 at the start of December to around 190 at the end. If we take the first attempt as the basis, that was around 170mpd at the end.

So what Idai is quoted as saying appears to have no basis in reality. What is he talking about?

[red marley]

I was wondering the same. Initially I thought he meant average to date (i.e. the Godwin line). But to go from here to the Godwin line by March is a very tall order, and as you say, he's currently around 190 mpd since the reboot, not 195.

Confused.

[Exit Stage Left]

That's probably why they don't like YACF, it puts the ride into perspective, too much perspective.

[Chris S]

Top idea from Greenbank, here: https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=91020.msg1967925#msg1967925

I'd offer me and The Van for a day. Wouldn't be a game changer, but it would give Steve an easy day without losing too many miles.

[Legs]

“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."

If he is targeting 205 daily miles by March, that can't be the total mileage/ days since restart. It has to be targeting consistently hitting 205 daily miles for a week.

After that date, Steve would have to cover stupid daily distances (somewhere around 250? Haven't crunched the numbers yet) to actually get the record.

Being charitable and assuming that Idai means that he's working to get his average up to 205 by the beginning of March...
Assuming that Steve's "current" mileage is 190mpd.  This his average since the beginning of the attempt, though as simonp points out, his December average was just 161mpd.  His recent progress has been more encouraging, though 160 miles in tailwind yesterday and a late start today are perhaps an indication that his residual tiredness is still hampering him.
He's done 28249.7m in 149 days already.
Assuming a linear increase from his average of ~190 miles per day to 205 miles per day over the next 57 days gives (190+205)/2 x 57 = 11257.5 miles
Giving a total of 28249.7 + 11257.5 = 39507.2 miles in 206 days.
Assuming (as is very unlikely!) Kurt does not surpass Godwin's record, the target is 75065, that leaves 35557.8 miles to do in 159 days, an average of 223.6 mpd from the beginning of March.

If, OTOH one assumes that Idai means that he's working to get his average up to 205 by the end of March...
He's done 28249.7m in 149 days already.
It might be more realistic to take Steve's "current" mileage as 180mpd
Assuming a linear increase from his average of ~180 miles per day to 205 miles per day over the next 88 days gives (180+205)/2 x 88 = 16940miles
Giving a total of 28249.7 + 16940 = 45189.7 miles in 237 days.
Assuming Kurt takes the record to 76200, that leaves ~31010 miles to do in 128 days, an average of 242.3 mpd from the end of March onwards.

The indications are that even the lower of these target rates is not sustainable by Steve for any great period of time, let alone for 5 months straight.  Who on Team Steve is doing the arithmetic?

[Greenbank]

The indications are that even the lower of these target rates is not sustainable by Steve for any great period of time, let alone for 5 months straight.  Who on Team Steve is doing the arithmetic?

Most of it comes from Steve's original plan where he said he'd be comfortable with building up to 16 hours riding a day in June/July. If he can do this consistently then there's no need for a huge speed increase, the required speed increase is ~0.5mph. He's shown he can maintain ~13.5 hours a day for prolonged periods already, so I'm guessing the rest goes something like this:-

Jan/Feb: 31+29 days = 60 days. 13.5 hours a day @ 15 mph (~0.4mph speed increase on what he is doing now) = 202.5 miles a day = 12150 miles for Jan/Feb

By this point (start of March) we hope for another 0.2mph average speed increase.

Mar: 31 days @ 13.5 hours a day @ 15.2 mph = 205.2 miles per day = 6361.2 miles
Apr: 30 days @ 14 hours a day @ 15.2 mph = 212.8 miles per day = 6384 miles
May: 31 days @ 15 hours a day @ 15.2 mph = 228 miles per day = 7068 miles
Jun/Jul/Aug: 30+31+6 days = 67 days @ 16 hours a day @ 15.2 mph = 243.2 miles per day = 16294.4 miles

12150 + 6361.2 + 6384 + 7068 + 16294.4 = 48257.6 miles

Add on the 27827.7 to the end of 2015 and you get: 76085.3 miles, which should be just beyond where Kurt ends up.

So no huge increase in speed required (only ~0.5mph on what he is doing now and jo's graphs show that his average speed has been slowly climbing over the last couple of months).

Any further speed increase is a bonus and means he's in the saddle for less time each day.

243.2 miles / 15.5 mph = 15h42
243.2 miles / 16 mph = 15h12
243.2 miles / 16.5 mph = 14h44

The question is whether he can put the extra time in the saddle and maintain it consistently without building up too much fatigue or sleep debt as it is unlikely he's going to suddenly get several mph faster.

[Greenbank]

...
If he has countenanced a 3rd attempt, one with a radically different approach, i.e. not 'audax style', more Kurt style with more support on the road, then it does seem irrational to persist with this attempt. The time would better spent getting organised, recovered, getting in some specific training so he starts in the best possible condition for the task ahead, refining his diet, and setting everything in place for 1 Jan 2017.

Do you not think there would be enough time to prepare for a third attempt between 7th August 2016 and 1st January 2017? It's 147 days.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours actual riding, even when fresh.

[Greenbank]

Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.

True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.

Doing the Mersey Roads 24 and PBP will not have helped either. If there's another attempt in 2017 then it would be interesting to see if LEL featured as that might slot in to the plan a bit better.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Before Steve got crashed out, he was already riding slower than he expected and increasing his hours to compensate.

He hasn't been able to do 14+ hours repeatedly at any point recently. Every time he does, he has another short day or two. That cycle has repeated for virtually all of last year. There haven't been any indications that it is changing.