Author Topic: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 260272 times)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1575 on: 04 January, 2016, 03:57:13 pm »

Jan/Feb: 31+29 days = 60 days. 13.5 hours a day @ 15 mph (0.4mph speed increase on what he is doing now) = 202.5 miles a day = 12150 miles for Jan/Feb
Take off the 54 miles that he's lost in the three days that he's had so far...  It's nearly two months since Steve last did two consecutive rides of more than 202.5 miles - averaging 202.5 in January seems pretty unlikely (especially since Steve didn't leave Goole until 10:30am this morning).

(If jo is feeling as if he wants to spend even longer souping up his charts, the "time riding" graphic could be enhanced by an overlay showing the local sunrise/sunset times  ;))

Charlie Boy

  • Dreams in kilometers
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1576 on: 04 January, 2016, 04:01:33 pm »
Doing the Mersey Roads 24 and PBP will not have helped either. If there's another attempt in 2017 then it would be interesting to see if LEL featured as that might slot in to the plan a bit better.

I couldn't ride a bike for several weeks after PBP in 2011. That Steve has continued to ride the distances he has, day-in, day-out, is a mark of the man. After all, he has done the equivalent of 85 PBPs back to back.

Somewhere he said he didn't want to ride a bike indefinitely, so I wonder of he has decided that there will not be a third attempt and it is all or nothing now. I am beginning to suspect so as this is the only logical conclusion given the way the numbers are stacking up, and that he is hoping for some deserved good luck for once to pull something spectacular out of the bag.
Mojo is being awakened.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1577 on: 04 January, 2016, 04:15:52 pm »
Before Steve got crashed out, he was already riding slower than he expected and increasing his hours to compensate.

I don't think he entered the challenge with the right fitness levels at all, he certainly changed a lot during the first few months of the challenge.

He hasn't been able to do 14+ hours repeatedly at any point recently. Every time he does, he has another short day or two. That cycle has repeated for virtually all of last year. There haven't been any indications that it is changing.

The increase in daylight hours and temperature come spring will provide some help, we'll just have to see if it's enough.

I can see how it could be possible if Steve is lucky and things go his way. I don't see anything from his history that can be used to prove that this attempt is ultimately fruitless although I think the odds are very very long on him suceeding. Up until he started the challenge I doubt he'd ever ridden >5000 miles in a month but he managed to do more than that for 3 months straight.
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1578 on: 04 January, 2016, 04:23:30 pm »
100,000 miles in 500 days?
Get a bicycle. You will never regret it, if you live- Mark Twain

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1579 on: 04 January, 2016, 04:40:14 pm »
“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."

If he is targeting 205 daily miles by March, that can't be the total mileage/ days since restart (that would require 230? daily from now). It has to be targeting consistently averaging 205 daily miles for a week.

After that date, Steve would have to cover impossible daily distances (somewhere around 250? Haven't crunched the numbers yet) to actually get the record.

Back of the spreadsheet maths suggests that if Steve can rise steadily to average 205mpd during March (say 195mpd in Jan, 200mpd in Feb), he will then require c230mpd for the rest of the time. A post clock-change boost to 220mpd in April, and then 235mpd from May onwards would do it.

(I was a bit surprised it wasn't close to 250.)

zigzag

  • unfuckwithable
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1580 on: 04 January, 2016, 04:41:55 pm »
I don't think he entered the challenge with the right fitness levels at all, he certainly changed a lot during the first few months of the challenge.
...

i remember showing photos of 01-01-15 start to my dad last year, where he was surprised that Steve will be carrying 15-20kg surplus weight on him. i argued that it's a part of a plan.. O:-)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1581 on: 04 January, 2016, 07:08:27 pm »
Idai has posted a very long winded and unnecessarily tedious interview on faceache essentially saying that shit happens, it's on a knife edge and they will see how January goes before making a decision on carry on or not.

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1582 on: 04 January, 2016, 07:10:22 pm »
The history of extreme endurance challenges (i.e. efforts lasting months, not a fortnight) shows a common theme:
participants expect to lose weight,  and bulk-up in advance accordingly.

I'm sure they know there is some performance hit at the start. If anything, cycling may be the least "weight-sensitive" transport mode. Especially on routes that are as flat as you can find.

(most recent - the ex-soldier who walked the Himalayan chain, currently on telly-box. )
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1583 on: 04 January, 2016, 08:11:22 pm »
Steve told me at the 24 that he didn't have time to ride prior to the event, and that left him unprepared. At 6.45 in this interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJES8l1YwoI


Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1584 on: 04 January, 2016, 08:14:40 pm »
The history of extreme endurance challenges (i.e. efforts lasting months, not a fortnight) shows a common theme:
participants expect to lose weight,  and bulk-up in advance accordingly.

For challenges where food must be carried, or where quality nutritious food may be hard/unreliable to find on the way (I'm thinking the polar ice caps or the Himalayan Chain) then it makes complete sense to bulk up beforehand; the excess fat is the emergency buffer should things get tough or it means less food needs to be carried to begin with. The fact that they lose weight also means they've underfed themselves during the challenge and/or they've planned to do this by starting with the big buffer.

But that plan (deliberately underfeed at first) doesn't make sense to me for a 12 month long cycling challenge where he's regularly visiting places where the required food is available (e.g. home). Once the excess weight is lost then food intake will need to increase anyway which may throw things part way into the challenge. It's not as if the weight loss was going to be slow and steady for the full 12 months.

The Year challenge is about maintaining a steady state in all manner of things. You need to start each day pretty much in the same shape as the day before or you'll have to adapt something during the ride which is risky. Being a little bit more tired (e.g. sleep debt) each day isn't going to work for hundreds of days in a row if there's no scope for a long lie in once in a while. A weight loss of 50g a day (which equates to a calorie deficit of 385kcal a day) would add up to close to 3 stone over the course of a year, etc.

The only thing that makes sense for planned extra weight at the beginning is to help with insulation for the first few winter months (I know I benefit from this!).

But, going back to my original comment, I wasn't referring specifically to weight when I talked about fitness levels.
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1585 on: 04 January, 2016, 08:26:18 pm »
Steve told me at the 24 that he didn't have time to ride prior to the event, and that left him unprepared. At 6.45 in this interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJES8l1YwoI

He told me that before he started. Steve rode comparatively little distance (for him) in 2014. Talk about stacking the odds against yourself.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1586 on: 04 January, 2016, 08:36:22 pm »
What would your schedule for a restart be then LWaB?

What reasons do you have against finishing even as late as the end of 6th August giving ~145 days to wind down, rest, recover, replan, test out a few things and train for a 1/1/17 restart?
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1587 on: 04 January, 2016, 08:48:21 pm »
Riders who are completely stuffed can take a long time to recover. Ossie never regained his full speed. Rest and recover, start a proper training program and actually get back to cruising at evens.  Five months would be tight to do that, considering that Steve wouldn't have ridden quickly for more than two years. Training for distance is easier and quicker than training for speed.

If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Chris S

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1588 on: 04 January, 2016, 08:53:22 pm »
Rest and recover, start a proper training program and actually get back to cruising at evens.  Five months would be tight to do that, considering that Steve wouldn't have ridden quickly for more than two years. Training for distance is easier and quicker than training for speed.

The whole training period should be on the diet he's going to follow, too.  :facepalm:

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1589 on: 04 January, 2016, 09:09:35 pm »
Steve told me at the 24 that he didn't have time to ride prior to the event, and that left him unprepared. At 6.45 in this interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJES8l1YwoI

He told me that before he started. Steve rode comparatively little distance (for him) in 2014. Talk about stacking the odds against yourself.

Steve's weight at the 2014 24 caused some comment. 50 seconds into this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJ_azKRsBT4 

Interesting to compare with 2012, at 3.28, when Steve did his best ride, supported by LWAB and HK.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl-1HEL8ieY

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1590 on: 04 January, 2016, 09:12:25 pm »
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.

True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.

If he was able to do >14 hours, his average speed would come down significantly.  It always does as greater tiredness sets in.  So it then needs more extra hours than thought, and so on.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1591 on: 04 January, 2016, 09:14:47 pm »
The history of extreme endurance challenges (i.e. efforts lasting months, not a fortnight) shows a common theme:
participants expect to lose weight,  and bulk-up in advance accordingly.

I'm sure they know there is some performance hit at the start. If anything, cycling may be the least "weight-sensitive" transport mode. Especially on routes that are as flat as you can find.

(most recent - the ex-soldier who walked the Himalayan chain, currently on telly-box. )

This might be true if access to food is limited - but I do not see this as sound stategy for an attempt like this.    The idea of winter breaks and piling on weight is redundant in modern pro cycling - I can't see how it is an advantage to start the One year TT at anything else but peak fitness.   Especially when if you ride in Steves low heart rate style you will effectively be detraining through the year.   

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1592 on: 04 January, 2016, 09:23:04 pm »
I was wondering the same. Initially I thought he meant average to date (i.e. the Godwin line). But to go from here to the Godwin line by March is a very tall order, and as you say, he's currently around 190 mpd since the reboot, not 195.

Confused.

Having listened to the interview, I agree.  I thought Idai came across well, but he didn't seem to have a grasp of the numbers. 

The single key metric which Steve should have, updated on a daily basis, is the average number of miles he needs to do per day from now to hit his target. 

It's like a limited overs cricket match; once you see that number start to rise quickly, the result is plain for all to see.  From the interview, I don't believe Idai knows that number, and therfore I don't believe anyone is telling Steve what it is day by day.  If he got the right information, he might be better able to make a better decision regarding at what point he climbs off.   

redfalo

  • known as Olaf in the real world
    • Cycling Intelligence
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1593 on: 04 January, 2016, 09:35:05 pm »
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.

True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.

If he was able to do >14 hours, his average speed would come down significantly.  It always does as greater tiredness sets in.  So it then needs more extra hours than thought, and so on.

Actually, Steve *is* doing >14 hour days at the moment, if you look at the total time elapsed rather than the moving time.
Jan 1: 203 miles, total time: 15:38hrs (moving time: 12:34hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/461088836
Jan 2: 191 miles, total time: 14:19hrs (moving time: 12:32hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/461844934
Jan 3: 163 miles, total time: 14:33hrs (moving time: 11:09hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/462749057

Getting faster is clearly only one of his challenges. Reducing the time off the bike another one. Doing both at the same time looks like a formidable task.  Lengthening the total time of a day out offers little extra potential over the long run, as that is probably not sustainable given the need for sleep.



https://www.strava.com/activities/461088836
If you can't convince, confuse.

https://cycling-intelligence.com/ - my blog on cycling, long distances and short ones

red marley

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1594 on: 04 January, 2016, 09:38:09 pm »
The single key metric which Steve should have, updated on a daily basis, is the average number of miles he needs to do per day from now to hit his target.


That figure is easy to calculate (target-currentTotal)/(365-number of days ridden) so I'd be very surprised if the team are not aware of it. For info it is also always available in the table at the bottom of http://gicentre.org/oytt

I wonder if something got mistranslated in the CTC article or that someone misspoke and was quoted verbatim.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1595 on: 04 January, 2016, 09:58:47 pm »
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.

True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.

If he was able to do >14 hours, his average speed would come down significantly.  It always does as greater tiredness sets in.  So it then needs more extra hours than thought, and so on.

Actually, Steve *is* doing >14 hour days at the moment, if you look at the total time elapsed rather than the moving time.
Jan 1: 203 miles, total time: 15:38hrs (moving time: 12:34hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/461088836
Jan 2: 191 miles, total time: 14:19hrs (moving time: 12:32hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/461844934
Jan 3: 163 miles, total time: 14:33hrs (moving time: 11:09hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/462749057

Getting faster is clearly only one of his challenges. Reducing the time off the bike another one. Doing both at the same time looks like a formidable task.  Lengthening the total time of a day out offers little extra potential over the long run, as that is probably not sustainable given the need for sleep.

https://www.strava.com/activities/461088836

His original plan was to greatly reduce the stopped time once the weather warms up. His example is 4 hours more riding time but only an increase of 1-2 hours elapsed.

Quote from: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/preparation
As fitness, conditioning and weather improves, I expect to be able to ride for longer without stopping, so although there is a 4 hour difference of riding time on the schedule between summer and winter, I expect there to be more like an hour or two difference between a days ride as I’d spend more time stopped to take shelter and have a warm drink in the winter.

There's more detail on the page itself: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/preparation

A graph of stopped time (i.e. elapsed time - moving time) would be very interesting (hint hint...)
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1596 on: 04 January, 2016, 10:07:48 pm »
Thanks for linking to the Preparation page GB.  One of the things that sticks out there like a sore thumb is the following:

Quote
"To take advantage of the low traffic volumes in the early morning, I will get up at 4am, aiming to be on the road before 5am, preferably 4:30. This will enable me to use the fast main roads out of Milton Keynes.
Traffic tends to pick up at around 8am, so I’d have been on the road for at least 3 hours by then. By that time I should be away from major towns and hopefully heavy traffic and it would also be a good time to stop for a cup of tea and some breakfast.
Early morning starts will mean that I get maximum benefit of daylight. In June at the summer solstice day breaks at around 4am and the sun sets at around 10pm, which coincides well with my scheduled hours on the road."

That all makes complete sense, and was presumably based on his years of experience.  One of the most concerning aspects of the challenge for me has been the ever-later start times.  I just don't see how that is compatible with high-milage days or his own plans.
The sound of one pannier flapping

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1597 on: 04 January, 2016, 10:17:59 pm »
Apologies to LWAB, it was 2013 when Steve did his greatest distance at the Mersey Roads. I never got around to doing a full video of that, as LEL intervened. Steve wasn't exactly thin then either. Here's LWAB helping Steve at the end, again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VOU2vCeXIo

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1598 on: 04 January, 2016, 10:19:27 pm »
Riders who are completely stuffed can take a long time to recover. Ossie never regained his full speed. Rest and recover, start a proper training program and actually get back to cruising at evens.  Five months would be tight to do that, considering that Steve wouldn't have ridden quickly for more than two years. Training for distance is easier and quicker than training for speed.

Hmm, I can understand that (even with just a single data point), but with 5 months I can't help but think he could be got to a much better off point than he was on 1st Jan 2015.

If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.

That's something I hadn't considered. If Bruce doesn't have any bad luck and pushes on through the year then he's got the capacity to push it out a long way, possibly beyond Steve no matter how long he waited/trained/etc before a restart. If anything that makes the argument for Steve continuing on the current attempt all the stronger as it may be his only hope of ever holding the record. (This depends on whether Steve's goal is to break Tommy's record (and maybe Kurt's) or to be the current record holder even if for a short period.)

Lots of scope for speculation whilst they all continue to ride their bikes round and round.
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1599 on: 04 January, 2016, 10:37:03 pm »
This thread is just the best thread ever on the internet. Of all time.
There are those who feel so compelled to post it's just uncontrollable beyond words and there is everybody else who are so irreconcilably compelled to read everything that ever gets written, we can never keep away.
Gotta laugh  :)
Garry Broad