Author Topic: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 260329 times)

mattc

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1600 on: 04 January, 2016, 10:59:00 pm »
If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.

That's something I hadn't considered. If Bruce doesn't have any bad luck and pushes on through the year then he's got the capacity to push it out a long way, possibly beyond Steve no matter how long he waited/trained/etc before a restart. If anything that makes the argument for Steve continuing on the current attempt all the stronger as it may be his only hope of ever holding the record. (This depends on whether Steve's goal is to break Tommy's record (and maybe Kurt's) or to be the current record holder even if for a short period.)
Agreed.

So LWAB's plan - supported by Greenbank's analysis - results in Steve putting 3 years into never taking the record.

Go LWAB and his planning!
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Wowbagger

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1601 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:05:44 pm »
On the shoulders of giants and all that. If Steve hadn't rekindled the interest and sorted out a set of rules with UMCA, Kurt would never have got involved (indeed, he walked away at one point, in November 2014 I think). Neither would Bruce.
Quote from: Dez
It doesn’t matter where you start. Just start.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1602 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:10:26 pm »
This thread is just the best thread ever on the internet. Of all time.
There are those who feel so compelled to post it's just uncontrollable beyond words and there is everybody else who are so irreconcilably compelled to read everything that ever gets written, we can never keep away.
Gotta laugh  :)


Boo!

Amongst the reformulations and restatements, there are some insightful gems to be found.

But nothing has really changed: Steve could do it. The way the team as a whole is going about it, as time goes on it gets more unlikely, but he could do it and I hope he does.

The only new change over the past 2 days is puzzling me. With all the discussion of strategy (dodgy team maths or not), the need for increased daily distances is clear. So why the late starts?

Wowbagger

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    • Stuff mostly about weather
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1603 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:13:43 pm »
This morning:
Quote
Woke up feeling rough and as if I was coming down with an illness. Voice got very croaky, got sleepy, stopped for rest then felt a bit less sleepy for a while. ctd in comments
Quote from: Dez
It doesn’t matter where you start. Just start.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1604 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:17:28 pm »
If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.

That's something I hadn't considered. If Bruce doesn't have any bad luck and pushes on through the year then he's got the capacity to push it out a long way, possibly beyond Steve no matter how long he waited/trained/etc before a restart. If anything that makes the argument for Steve continuing on the current attempt all the stronger as it may be his only hope of ever holding the record. (This depends on whether Steve's goal is to break Tommy's record (and maybe Kurt's) or to be the current record holder even if for a short period.)
Agreed.

So LWAB's plan - supported by Greenbank's analysis - results in Steve putting 3 years into never taking the record.

Go LWAB and his planning!

Eh? LWaB isn't responsible for any of the plan or bad luck that has Steve in the current predicament.

LWaB's plan could succeed if Bruce fails or doesn't push the record too far out.

Then again, Steve pushing on too long could be just too much and rule out any further attempt.

Who knows what the right answer is.

At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

mattc

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1605 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:23:35 pm »
At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.
LWAB is the one pissing on Steve and the Team's current efforts.

Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.

If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

LMT

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1606 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:25:31 pm »
At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.
LWAB is the one pissing on Steve and the Team's current efforts.

Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.

If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.

Constructive criticism is not the same as pissing on someones effort, or the team that backs them.

Is this really so hard to grasp?

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1607 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:32:16 pm »
Amongst the reformulations and restatements, there are some insightful gems to be found.

Oh absolutely, I wasn't kidding.

Just going back what Wow was saying [and this is not addressed to Wow] - you know, I sometimes think that it's us here on the internet, that like to marry the authenticity of the challenge to our man Steve from MK, as if it's all his precious challenge and somehow if others take up the challenge they are kind of imposters and not really to be respected. We will respect them, but actually....almost kind of begrudgingly, like through gritted teeth. I really think that the feeling likely to be more prevalent here than it is in Steve's mind. I really wonder if he cares that much actually.

He's a curious animal, we all are in our own ways, and he's a very different kind of individual to me, way different, I have little in common with him, he's way too out there for me as regards cycling, far too dedicated and single minded than I would ever want to be, but I really don't think he does bitterness or acrimony that well. That others have come along in the wake of his enthusiasm probably gives him more satisfaction than we might to acknowledge.
Garry Broad

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1608 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:35:09 pm »
This morning:
Quote
Woke up feeling rough and as if I was coming down with an illness. Voice got very croaky, got sleepy, stopped for rest then felt a bit less sleepy for a while. ctd in comments

Missed that - thanks. Was that on Strava or Facebook? I still can’t see the comment.

mattc

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1609 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:36:41 pm »
Lets review the reaction to Idai's public statement:

I've listened, of course.

I'm glad to know that a review of progress and the possibility of stopping is on the cards at the end of January. They should have done that at the end of last year but hey ho.
So LWAB is happy for a review of progress at the end of Jan. Seems reasonable enough.

In which case I see nothing constructive in the current drip-feed of pessimism. It smells of someone who really does want to see his negative predictions proven correct.

How about letting them give this their best shot until Jan 31st? It seems the obvious course, for any reasonable supporter of this record attempt.
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1610 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:43:59 pm »
How about letting them give this their best shot until Jan 31st? It seems the obvious course, for any reasonable supporter of this record attempt.

Once again you are trying to control what is said on a public forum. 
The sound of one pannier flapping

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1611 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:45:45 pm »
At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.
LWAB is the one pissing on Steve and the Team's current efforts.

Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.

If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.

I disagree with LWaB on several aspects of this whole thing but he's not pissing on Steve's effort. Far from it. I'm all for a healthy dose of realism amongst all of the saccharine.

So if the current attempt fails and either Steve gives up completely or Bruce pushes the record out to something Steve can't achieve are you going to sum it up as "So the Team's plan results in Steve putting 20 months into never taking the record" ?
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

mattc

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1612 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:48:58 pm »
How about letting them give this their best shot until Jan 31st? It seems the obvious course, for any reasonable supporter of this record attempt.

Once again you are trying to control what is said on a public forum. 

Ah yes, the Free Speech argument again!

You still seem to have a lot to learn on that topic. Hey ho ...
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1613 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:51:18 pm »
Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.

Not really, it doesn't say which plan is better and it can't as that depends on too many future events.

If you really believe what you wrote then you could also say that his plan is no worse than the current plan.
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

mattc

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1614 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:53:04 pm »
So if the current attempt fails and either Steve gives up completely or Bruce pushes the record out to something Steve can't achieve are you going to sum it up as "So the Team's plan results in Steve putting 20 months into never taking the record" ?
You should read LWAB's comments on the fundamental binary success/faliure nature of the attempt.

I certainly dont see it as that simple; but when responding to LWAB, sometimes it is simpler to discuss things on his terms.
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Wowbagger

  • Stout dipper
    • Stuff mostly about weather
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1615 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:53:18 pm »
Amongst the reformulations and restatements, there are some insightful gems to be found.

Oh absolutely, I wasn't kidding.

Just going back what Wow was saying [and this is not addressed to Wow] - you know, I sometimes think that it's us here on the internet, that like to marry the authenticity of the challenge to our man Steve from MK, as if it's all his precious challenge and somehow if others take up the challenge they are kind of imposters and not really to be respected. We will respect them, but actually....almost kind of begrudgingly, like through gritted teeth. I really think that the feeling likely to be more prevalent here than it is in Steve's mind. I really wonder if he cares that much actually.

He's a curious animal, we all are in our own ways, and he's a very different kind of individual to me, way different, I have little in common with him, he's way too out there for me as regards cycling, far too dedicated and single minded than I would ever want to be, but I really don't think he does bitterness or acrimony that well. That others have come along in the wake of his enthusiasm probably gives him more satisfaction than we might to acknowledge.

I think it was Richie Benaud who, when asked who the world's top batsman was, said that at any one time, you can't separate the top 6. On the day in question, it could simply come down to a matter of luck who does well and who doesn't. When it comes down to the 6 top distance cyclists in history, Steve is there amongst them, currently standing at number 4. He would easily have beaten Bernard Bennett other than for the bad luck of breaking his leg. I don't think that any of us doubts that he would have got well past 70,000 miles given a decent run of luck.

None of that takes away from Kurt's achievement. He was brilliant. In the early days I felt that his lack of proper preparation would let him down - how many bikes did he have broken at one time? He got away with it and played a blinder. Since early November he hasn't had a day under a Godwin until the record was pretty much in the bag. That is massively impressive when he had already had 10 months on the road. I'm not certain how many miles broken bikes cost him. It may not have been that many, but I think if he had given the attention to kit that Steve did he might have knocked a bit more time off the record.

Of course, a record like this isn't a single day. It's a whole bloody year. It represents 2.5% of Steve's time on this planet to date, 2% of Kurt's. Only very dedicated people even contemplate tackling it. I can't see Kurt ever doing this again if someone should break his record (Bruce? Steve?) in the next year or two. He's got other stuff to do with his life and he's not going to crack it when he's knocking 60. It's a really tough call on Steve, though, should he not break the record after all this effort. But, as they say, that's life.

Edit: I'll add that it has been a massive privilege for the past year following these two Titans battling it out in their own different ways. My grandchildren are too young to appreciate being told about this, but they will know all about it in due course. I suspect that Steve will, in his usual modest manner, wonder what all the fuss is about.
Quote from: Dez
It doesn’t matter where you start. Just start.

LMT

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1616 on: 04 January, 2016, 11:57:20 pm »
The irony, in 'the other thread' something about trolling and petty sniping.

In an endurance challenge such as this Matt, hard questions have to be asked. Sometimes it's no good being all head in the clouds, patting someone on the back and saying 'you know best'. Not when currently Steve is still out on the road @ 175 miles. If he wants to do a Searvogel, or at least hit 200 miles he'll be looking at a 0200hrs finish. In what way possible is this a constructive effort on a record attempt - being out on the road hypothetically for 16 hours and doing 200 miles.

It's got jack shit to do with pissing on his record attempt, it's about looking at what can be done better. Idai I thought came across very well in his interview, but when it came down to the numbers and what needs to be done I don't think he really had a clue imo. Certainly at this rate, by the end of the month it well be too late.

mattc

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1617 on: 05 January, 2016, 12:07:25 am »
The irony, in 'the other thread' something about trolling and petty sniping.
What's up - has someone upset you? We can't have that.
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

crowriver

  • Крис Б
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1618 on: 05 January, 2016, 12:19:05 am »
Kurt is now the record holder.

One hour ago on Fb:

"There is a NEW Highest Annual Mileage Record holder!!!! Tarzan is the HAM'R!!!!!!"

Well done that man!  ;D
Embrace your inner Fred.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1619 on: 05 January, 2016, 12:23:57 am »
A key quote for me in this is "Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?"

The web is full of people telling you what such things mean, and I like this one, although it's a bit odd in parts.

Quote
This is from a dramatic monolog by the British Victorian poet, Robert Browning. The speaker is a late Renaissance Florentine artist by the name of Andrea del Sarto. He's, to put it bluntly, a remarkable craftsman but lacking in soul, vision, spiritual passion. Momentarily, he points to paintings by the great painters Raphael and Michelangelo, boasting that he could come closer to "perfection" than either of these two immortal, renowned painters. But then he quickly recognizes his own weakness and acknowledges why he's inferior to Raphael or Michelangelo: "Ah" (meaning "Let's not fool ourselves"), "A man's reach" (meaning his dream, or goal) should exceed his grasp (the material things that you can see, touch, and possess--minimal trouble and money). Most parents want their child to have more than a car, a house or an iPod. Be a doctor, a concert pianist, President of the U.S.A. Andrea can never be a great artist because painting for him comes too easily. He's lazy and has no reason to challenge himself. He "has it made" already.

His pictures have photographic realism and will appeal to the majority of the population. (But what do the masses know? Most think no more deeply or show any more vision than Andrea does--or a sloth or lobster.)

The appeal of 'The Year' lies in the amount of application it takes, as opposed to talent, that's true of most 'endurance' activities. 100 metre runners don't feel the need to take up marathons, they proved themselves in their youth doing something that came naturally to them. Anything that relies on spreadsheets and data visualisations is for a mature audience, and that's a demographic that's a bit too dominant in our society. Perhaps we concentrate too much on 'the long game'.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1620 on: 05 January, 2016, 12:26:10 am »
The irony, in 'the other thread' something about trolling and petty sniping.
What's up - has someone upset you? We can't have that.

Keep digging Matt, you'll find the bottom soon...

How can i put this in yacf terms (I can't be as direct as i could be on LFGSS for example) as here it is about being excellent to each other. Ah yes, how about this:

Of all the posters in this sub forum you're regularly displaying the least excellence, and that's saying something given some of them.
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1621 on: 05 January, 2016, 01:27:56 am »
Looking at the data on https://goo.gl/RBHtiS Steve is fast running into a mathematical issue on his second attempt.  Even if Kurt gives up today, and doesn't turn another pedal stroke (which I think we can all agree is unlikely) Steve currently needs to do 217 miles per day just to catch up.

For the next five days, every 365 miles that Kurt does adds a mile to that daily total, and every 365 miles below that 217 daily total also adds another mile for Steve to ride later. Steve's current average distance is 190 miles per day, which means that over 5 days, he's likely to lose 135 miles, or 0.3 miles per day, and Kurt may well add 1000 miles, or 2.7 miles per day, meaning that target could creep out to 220 miles per day over the next five days.  Steve has only managed over 220 miles 20 times in the last 149 days. Even in the 87 days prior to the scooter incident, Steve only rode over 220 miles on 7 days.

I hate to throw cold water at things, but at this point I personally think this record attempt may well be too far beyond what is currently possible, and the next 5 days will be what decides that either way.

All respect to Steve, who is riding distances I can barely comprehend, even now. I hope that when he and the team make their decision at the end of the month, they take into account all of the data that is available to them. They inevitably will have data that we internet superheroes just don't have.

Justin(e)

  • On my way out of here
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1622 on: 05 January, 2016, 03:30:12 am »
Quote
Looking at the data on https://goo.gl/RBHtiS Steve is fast running into a mathematical issue on his second attempt

And yet he rides on.  An indication that his grasp exceeds his reach. Truly magnificent spirit on behalf of Steve.  Allez.

Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1623 on: 05 January, 2016, 06:10:33 am »
According to CTC article on web just published Steve is  carrying on with the second attempt.

The 'plan' if you could call it that is to ride Godwins immediately.  However looking at the current data he is stopping for 2 hours each day that he manages to ride 300km over a  minimum 14 hour period.

If he rides only Godwins, not to the new record that Steve says he will break, each week he will add 42km to the mile deficit.

Steve will continue to ride in the same way as his spokesperson says he is maximising his opportunities this way.

There is no plan to start getting back the owing distance. Wait to better weather then ride longer days in terms of miles.

If that's a 'plan' I'm the Pink Panther.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1624 on: 05 January, 2016, 06:16:06 am »
This thread is just the best thread ever on the internet. Of all time.
There are those who feel so compelled to post it's just uncontrollable beyond words and there is everybody else who are so irreconcilably compelled to read everything that ever gets written, we can never keep away.
Gotta laugh  :)



Certainly is
 :thumbsup: