[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[LittleWheelsandBig]

So if the current attempt fails and either Steve gives up completely or Bruce pushes the record out to something Steve can't achieve are you going to sum it up as "So the Team's plan results in Steve putting 20 months into never taking the record" ?

You should read LWAB's comments on the fundamental binary success/faliure nature of the attempt.

I certainly dont see it as that simple; but when responding to LWAB, sometimes it is simpler to discuss things on his terms.

You are missing the point Matt. There are quotes along the lines of "Insanity is doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results."

Steve and his team are now grinding along exactly the same path that ended a few days ago with Steve on the podium for year distance (at the time). In a few days' time, he'll be pushed into 4th by Kurt. Granted, if Steve continues till August, he'll (hopefully) not have to cope with a broken ankle but he is still collecting infections. Steve is barely increasing his average riding speed and still losing hours during each day's ride. At best (assuming more intensive support and less wasted time each day), his daily average from now till the finish would top out around 210 miles (assuming he doesn't break) and he would beat his 2015 tally but not Tommy or Kurt. That would get him to 3rd or 4th. Continuing this attempt is not a no-cost option (costs are not just monetary) and, appearances to the contrary, Steve is not a machine.

Idai said that the team will review Steve's performance at the end of January. That is at least a month later than they should have done it, but better than nothing. They should compare Steve's performance against the 220 daily miles needed from now till August but are now targeting averaging 205 daily miles sometime in March. That schedule inevitably requires Steve to average around 235 daily miles for 3 months (thanks to jsabine for juggling the numbers). That daily average distance simply is not viable, given Steve's current condition and potential rate of improvement.

Starting again, having recovered properly, regained his cruising speed and optimised his strategy and support based on what was learnt from 2015, I reckon Steve could average up to 220 daily miles over the year. That sort of performance would result in a formidable total. He may fail but he would have a realistic chance of getting the record.

[HK]

I think the review has been done. The on-line CTC article by Idai clearly states that Steve is continuing, using the same approach and will now be riding 205 miles a day until the better weather. It states that his aim is to break Kurt's record.

On FB 'Steve' congratulated Kurt and in the next sentence said he would break the new record.

[andrew531]

Steve's speed will have to increase
If on average he can spend 14 hours a day in the saddle at 15mph average 210 miles a day
16mph 14 hours = 224
17 mph for 14 hours = 238
18 mph for 14 hours = 252
19 mph for 14 hours = 266
20 mph for 14 hours = 280

I have gone gone for 14 hours as an example riding time, not including stops etc.

Kurt has broken the record as he has ridden faster, had a shorter day in the saddle with support. 

I'd really like to see Steve break the record but we'll have to see what happens

[Wobbly]

If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.

I agree. Your snide comments are squarely aimed at other posters on this thread Matt.

I know you and you're a decent bloke, but you do come across as a bit of a knob on here sometimes which I think is unintentional but it is a real pity.

I think this thread would be better if we could accept that there are lots of different views (acturally there are probably only two views!) and allow people to air them here without any snideyness. Then again it is the internet and we're all grown-ups and we should have better things to do

That is all. 

[T42]

Steve and his team are now grinding along exactly the same path that ended a few days ago with Steve on the podium for year distance (at the time). In a few days time, he'll be pushed into 4th by Kurt. Granted, if Steve continues till August, he'll (hopefully) not have to cope with a broken ankle but he is still collecting infections. Steve is barely increasing his average riding speed and still losing hours during each day's ride. At best (assuming more intensive support and less wasted time each day), his daily average from now till the finish would top out around 210 miles (assuming he doesn't break) and he would beat his 2015 tally but not Tommy or Kurt. That would get him to 3rd or 4th. Continuing this attempt is not a no-cost option (costs are not just monetary) and, appearances to the contrary, Steve is not a machine.

The worry is that he's riding in a purely maritime climate: he can't move away to where there might be less wind or rain.  It's not that cold but it's not warm so he has to ride in winter kit all the time.  In winter I'm 3-4 kph slower than in summer and knackered in half the time: OK, I'm decrepit but Steve must feel similar effects on top of the cumulative strain.  A few weeks in a warm dry climate would probably work wonders, but that's probably impossible.  It would put him beyond reach of his YACF helpers.  All in all, he's on a much tougher option than Kurt.

[Chris S]

First suggestions of a cold spell coming in today's forecast. Interesting to contrast that with the scene when Kurt and Alicia broke the tape at the new record; everyone in shorts, t-shirts - under warm, blue skies  .

Still - might be drier and less windy too, which will be a relief for Steve, I'm sure.

[Ham]

On FB 'Steve' congratulated Kurt and in the next sentence said he would break the new record.

Or, more accurately, someone posting to Steve's Facebook left a message

Well done Kurt and Alicia Searvogel.
Enjoy your last few days as the new World Record holder

With the headshot from Steve's Christmas message. I suspect Steve himself might have phrased it differently and used a current selfie, but that's just a guess.

[danridesbikes]

Hoppo replied using Steves account saying he meant the last few days riding, not that it will only last 3 days

I noticed Hoppo said he would do the HAMR when he retires on his FB page (which I've now unfollowed, the guy doesn't come across well online, imo)

[Shreds]

That suggests a bit of a conflict of interest doesn't it at the moment?

[Exit Stage Left]

I tried to condense what I thought about the attempt when he first started.

I first encountered Steve Abraham on the North Roads 24 time trial towards the end of the last century. That was the 100th running of that event, and it ran true to the course of such a ride. We all went round and round on various public roads for a whole day each, until it was your time to finish. They added up everyone’s distance and declared some winners. First was Ian Butcher, 501 miles, he and the third place rider had to be held up on the podium to receive their prizes. I’ve since seen much the same happen a number of times on the way to the record being raised to 542 miles in 2011 by Andy Wilkinson.

There were two regular 24 hour time trials in those days, and there was a prize for the longest distance ridden in both combined. Steve was usually a long way behind the winners, but he always rode both. Those events are a real family affair, with the same faces turn up riding and supporting. There’s an overlapping line that has handed the baton on from the decade before the establishment of the modern Olympics. It’s not a huge number of people, a couple of hundred active participants and helpers, but it’s a core group of support for Steve, they understand where he’s coming from, where he’s going to, and what stands in his way.

Another area of overlapping support is in Audax. That’s a form of non-competitive long distance cycling. It’s essentially a ladder, leading to ever greater feats of endurance on a bike. Its greatest single manifestation is Paris Brest Paris, a 1200km relic of the late 19th century love affair with the bicycle. Around 5,000 people ride, and Steve’s been doing that since 1995, so he’s a well established member of that community. Audax United Kingdom is one of the clubs Steve belongs to, the North Buckinghamshire Road Club is another formally constituted one, and then there’s Yet Another Cycling Forum, a loose internet coalition of cyclists with a leaning towards the longer side of the pastime.

The record that Steve is attempting is a long standing one from 1939. It was encouraged by Cycling magazine and the first record was established in 1911. The 1930s were something of a heyday for long distance rides and distance records, and were very much a British speciality, as road races were not allowed. Record holders were the stars of the sport, and were feted at prize givings at the Albert Hall, and their names entered in ’The Golden Book of Cycling’.

Steve’s record attempt strikes me as an extension of that heritage. In the meantime, a whole new series of cycling cultures have come to the fore, with road racing and leisure cycling hybridising to give birth to the sportive scene, triathlons introducing big numbers to endurance cycling and a new discipline of ‘adventure cycling’, which has elements from other ‘adventure sports’. Social media has had a role to play in the establishment of these newer types of cycling. There’s a difference in approach between time trialling, which chips seconds off the time taken to ride set distances, and ‘adventure cycling’ which seems to emphasise inspiration and aspiration and to border on ‘spirituality’.

I got around to thinking about these various ways of understanding what Steve is doing, by looking at ‘Adventure Sports’ websites. There’s usually a lot of detail about the how, and also about the why, which seems to be a component that can be best explained if you book the personality as an inspirational speaker. So I wondered how Tommy Godwin would have been an inspiration in his time. From 1939 Britain was in an arms production race with Germany, and endless toil, devoted to reaching targets, was going to dominate a lot of lives for the next five years. Tommy’s record can be seen as a combination of the physical capacities needed to carry out the work and the discipline of working in the munitions factories. It chimed with the films of George Formby and Gracie Fields, where the virtues of modesty and self-effacement don’t need to be sacrificed to achieve success. This may seem wholly nostalgic to many, but those values persist in cycling clubs around the country, it’s part and parcel of the working-class roots of the sport.

The current perception of ‘extreme sports’ doesn’t see the participant as a worker, but as a seeker after truth. People are transformed by doing extraordinary things in extraordinary places. That’s a lot easier to convey these days, as it’s now possible to record the spectacular feats in spectacular scenery fairly easily, and there are many media outlets to show the results. I can see the appeal of that ‘spiritual journey’ view, and I wonder how it might apply to Steve’s record attempt. But Steve’s not doing something obviously spectacular, there’s no summit to arrive at. He puts the hours in, at a pre-determined rate, and he arrives at his ultimate destination. In that sense he’s extremely ordinary, he’s doing what most people do, just a lot more of it, without any appreciable breaks. To me he’s the ‘Everyday Hero’. I always knew where he stood in terms of his capacity to undertake a job like this, he’s certainly bold enough, and he’s got the tenacity to see it through.

I find it inspiring that someone is upholding those sorts of values, and it makes me want to reassert that in myself.

What I didn't state at the time was that I wondered what the attempt would become if it continued when the record was out of reach. Steve's status as an underdog can be presented as in the tradition of Norman Wisdom or Frank Spencer. Wisdom made a career out of playing 'The Successful Failure', an extension of George Formby's screen persona.

Steve's on the road most of he time, so his image is what is projected by his team. I can't say I know him very well. Indeed I can't say I know anyone in Audax very well. Sharing the road gives you a sense of comradeship, and you feel that you know people better than any sensible analysis of how long you've spent in their company warrants. LWAB and HK seem to know Steve the best.

Norman Wisdom made his career playing 'The Gump' as he called the Pitkin character. His name gave rise to a rare thing, an EU parliament joke, when 'Ca que nous avons besoin de, est La sagesse Normande', was translated as 'What we need now is Norman Wisdom'. 'La sagesse Normande' is French for 'Common Sense'. http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/fun/
But common sense is different for the different constituencies following Steve. One man's plucky underdog is another man's Norman Wisdom, and plenty of people liked Norman Wisdom.

[Ningishzidda]

IMO, Steve Abram has not been ‘the underdog’ at any point of this venture. He is one of this country’s ( UK ) most capable cyclists for the task, and by no way inferior to Kurt. He started on equal footing to the other two riders.
His starting three months saw a deficit of approx. 1000 miles, or five day’s worth of efforts during the British winter.
Then the moped incident.
Steve’s progress in the two – three weeks prior to the moped incident showed a consistency of riding and I for one, was confident Steve would claw back the 1000 miles in the second quarter of the year, leaving six months to improve a positive trace above the ‘Godwin line’ on Jo’s chart. That plan was sound.

A drunken moped rider scuppered Steve’s 2015 HAMR attempt. Not any mis-guidance by his team. Since surgery on his ankle, Steve has suffered some illnesses, or digestion problems.
He is no less a cyclist in my view than he was on 1st January 2015.
Those are my current thoughts.

[Chris S]

I don't think anyone has questioned Steve's abilities - just that, for the current record attempt, he's not riding fast enough or far enough.

[mattc]

If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.

I agree. Your snide comments are squarely aimed at other posters on this thread Matt.

That implies a much less targeted approach than the reality. Just IMO of course ...

I think this thread would be better if we could accept that there are lots of different views (acturally there are probably only two views!) and allow people to air them here without any snideyness

This is not an original idea! Good luck with it though.

I know you and you're a decent bloke, but you do come across as a bit of a knob on here sometimes

Thanks, I'll take that - I'm sure worse things will be said to me in 2016

[Exit Stage Left]

Those looking at Steve's actual performance are one constituency. The best placed of those are LWAB and HK, who directly helped Steve to his best 24 Hour performance. Others in the 24 hour world will look round and speculate who is best placed for another attempt.

Hoppo stands out, a 24 hour PB of 480 as opposed to Steve's 450, a record of riding in events in the USA, and a year as Steve's crew boss. Other likely candidates have careers which wouldn't allow a year off. The 24 hour community would most like Wilko or Gethin to give it a go, if anyone has to. Hoppo has an element of 'showboating' that goes down best in the USA.

An interesting element is that long distance cycling is very bad for the hands, and Hoppo is a music teacher who needs manual dexterity. Steve and Kurt's experience will show if a sustained tri-bar position or a recumbent lessens the damage. Chris 'quit cycling' in 2005.

Hopkinson made history earlier this summer by becoming the first solo Briton to complete the 3,000-mile non-stop Race Across America.

He said he was "over the moon" at securing the 12 hour title, but added: "I'm retiring from racing. I've done too much. So far this year altogether I've ridden just under 25,500 miles, which is ridiculous.

"I'm suffering with nerve damage to my hands after the RAAM – I can't feel my thumb on my right hand.



Read more: http://www.matlockmercury.co.uk/sport/local-sport/chris-quits-at-the-top-1-860252#ixzz3wMhNHvXC

He gave a brief rundown of his cycling career in an interview with Idai in 2014.
http://elliptigo.co.uk/testimonials/chrish

[red marley]

Are you suggesting Hoppo is deliberately undermining Steve's attempt in order to further his own future chances of taking the record? That's a pretty serious allegation and not one to be bandied about lightly. If you are not, what is the point in hinting at conflicts of interest?

[Frank9755]

Highlighting a conflict of interest does not imply any accusation. 
For all we know, it may have been discussed between Steve and Hoppo. They may both be happy with it. But, that it represents a conflict, is a statement of fact.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Hanlon's Razor probably should be applied here.

[Jaded]

What a shame that Steve's efforts are being overshadowed by hints of conflicts between current team members and ex-team members.

[TheRedEyeJedi]

What a shame that Steve's efforts are being overshadowed by hints of conflicts between current team members and ex-team members.

I don't think they are

I don't think anything waffled online can overshadow the effort of Steve or Kurt.

I still think he could do better with a change of approach though

[Shreds]

The best approach would be to hire Team Searvogel for the next six+ months.

[simonp]

No conflict of interest there.

[red marley]

Hanlon's Razor probably should be applied here.

I agree, which is why there seems to be little benefit in raising it here and labelling it as "serious".

[Polar Bear]

Hanlon's Razor probably should be applied here.

I agree, which is why there seems to be little benefit in raising it here and labelling it as "serious".

Safer to carry on shaving with a razor than an axe of course.

[Martin]

I thought it might get a bit like the day after a General Election where all the losers throw in the towel....

[hillbilly]

In the early days of the challenge, we used to predict how many miles Steve would do that month. 

I'm going to forecast that Steve will do 5,900 miles over the 31 days of January 2016.

And that Steve will continue into February, with an indication that he'll review the situation at the end of the month.  I'll also go out on a limb and predict that some forum members will criticise him (or more strictly speaking "the team") for this.