[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[jochta]

Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

My references to it a couple of weeks ago under the banner of 'duty of care' were probably way too subtle. It's one thing to support someone in a risky endeavour which is their life's dream but I firmly believe it is wrong to do so once it becomes clear the goal is out of reach.

Even though the mileage of Tommy or indeed Kurt may not be achieved Steve will likely wish to see what mileages he can do.  However if he is happy to change from his audax mode to a different approach with increased back up  (for which the funds are healthy) his chances of quicker miles with reduced unnecessary down time during the day and with increased sleep will/could work wonders!

Then it no longer becomes a record attempt and just a long bike ride with no need to continue to ask for voluntary contributions to pay for it IMO.

[Greenbank]

Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.

Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.

I think my answer to that question might be different if Steve were well placed to get the record and not having to play catch up. At this stage, even if Steve were up with the pace, with 8 months still to go a health issue of any sort could become much more serious. If he were well placed with only a month to go and a potentially serious health issue cropped up, then my answer might be different. But then I'm not a doctor.

If something occurs that is serious enough then I'd assume Steve would stop regardless of the status of the attempt.

There's nothing to indicate that what Steve is doing now is any more (or less) detrimental to his health than when he first started the attempt.

Even though Steve may fall behind the pace required for the Godwin/Kurt record he may continue just to beat his previous attempt and get a PB. We're in the dark as to Steve's exact motivations.

[jochta]

Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.

Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.

I think my answer to that question might be different if Steve were well placed to get the record and not having to play catch up. At this stage, even if Steve were up with the pace, with 8 months still to go a health issue of any sort could become much more serious. If he were well placed with only a month to go and a potentially serious health issue cropped up, then my answer might be different. But then I'm not a doctor.

If something occurs that is serious enough then I'd assume Steve would stop regardless of the status of the attempt.

There's nothing to indicate that what Steve is doing now is any more (or less) detrimental to his health than when he first started the attempt.

Even though Steve may fall behind the pace required for the Godwin/Kurt record he may continue just to beat his previous attempt and get a PB. We're in the dark as to Steve's exact motivations.

Then it no longer becomes a record attempt and just a long bike ride with no need to continue to ask for voluntary contributions to pay for it IMO.

[Greenbank]

Then it no longer becomes a record attempt and just a long bike ride with no need to continue to ask for voluntary contributions to pay for it IMO.

And many may agree with you (I'd probably continue to donate to that PB attempt), but the current plan seems (based on what Idai said in that interview) to be to continue to strive towards breaking the record, with a continue/stop decision to be made at the end of the month. Until I hear otherwise that's what I'll assume they're doing.

We'll also have no idea whether the decision they make is genuine or not, but I've got no reason not to trust them.

The numbers (required distance per day) are either going to remain on a knife-edge or continue to trend upwards up. No-one knows what the magic cut-off point number is. Some think it has already passed. As I said elsewhere, I think it's going to be somewhere between 219 miles per day (current required amount if Kurt adds what is expected) and 300 miles per day (where I think it's definitely toast), but I can't place exactly where it transitions from "has a chance, even if it's slim" to "no chance whatsoever".

[Karla]

I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that.  Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?

[Wowbagger]

One thing I will say, which is a bit like a broken record I suppose, but anyone out there today has my utmost admiration. Here in Southend I think it is the gloomiest day of the winter so far. It's not cold, and I don't think it is especially windy, but it is bucketing down with rain. Definitely lights-on cycling.



That's the view from my front door a few minutes ago. In reality it looks a lot darker than that.

[Wowbagger]

I wonder if the mods would be good enough to remove the "2015" from the board title, since it no longer is? Kajsa's and Bruce's attempts most definitely do not belong under that heading.

[Frank9755]

Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health. 

I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.

Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.

I think my answer to that question might be different if Steve were well placed to get the record and not having to play catch up. At this stage, even if Steve were up with the pace, with 8 months still to go a health issue of any sort could become much more serious. If he were well placed with only a month to go and a potentially serious health issue cropped up, then my answer might be different. But then I'm not a doctor.

If something occurs that is serious enough then I'd assume Steve would stop regardless of the status of the attempt.

There's nothing to indicate that what Steve is doing now is any more (or less) detrimental to his health than when he first started the attempt.

Even though Steve may fall behind the pace required for the Godwin/Kurt record he may continue just to beat his previous attempt and get a PB. We're in the dark as to Steve's exact motivations.

I'm not talking about acute stuff (agree with what you say on that); more the effect of doing it on long term health.

[Chris S]

I wonder if the mods would be good enough to remove the "2015" from the board title, since it no longer is? Kajsa's and Bruce's attempts most definitely do not belong under that heading.

Better still, how about a new Sub-forum under Rides & Touring, entitled "World Record Attempts"?

After all - these attempts have little or nothing to do with Audax.

[Exit Stage Left]

I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that.  Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?

'Racing' be the place for that. I'm with Chris S about this being on the Audax board.

[Greenbank]

I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that.  Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?

If your PBs were going to be national records, and you could provide some evidence that you've got a reasonable chance then some may consider donating.

So if you're going for the 10 mile TT record (17:20 by Dowsett isn't it?) show me your results where you've done, I dunno, sub 18:20 and I'd consider donating.

Money probably best spent on something like Aerocoach and getting CdA down before swanky wheels though.

[Frank9755]

the current plan seems (based on what Idai said in that interview) to be to continue to strive towards breaking the record, with a continue/stop decision to be made at the end of the month.

I know people have written that was what Idai said but it wasn't how I interpreted the interview when I listened to it. He said something similar (and I can't recall the exact words) but I didn't think it amounted to a hard go/no go review at the end of Jan. I expect the run rate to continue to climb through Jan but for the ride to trundle on.

[Mr Larrington]

Is that pikey old Beemer the backup for when the Leaf runs out of voles, Mr Wowbagger

[Sergeant Pluck]

I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.

If he was closer to being on track, and feeling well, it would be a useful sign that he is operating within his physical and mental limits, so it might be reasonable to conclude that carrying on was not necessarily detrimental to his health. But as things stand...

I'm going to wait until the end of the month to hear what Steve's intentions are. While I agree that Idai probably didn't mean there would be a hard end point at the end of Jan, my understanding is that there is to be a review and a sharing of intentions. I'm as interested in how the plan has been arrived at as I am in the content of the plan.

Why am I a bit less "Go Steve" today? I know it is not reliable evidence, and I'm not reading too much into it, but I didn't think Steve looked that great in his MK Bowl photo yesterday.

[Greenbank]

I'm not talking about acute stuff (agree with what you say on that); more the effect of doing it on long term health.

I don't think there's enough evidence to know exactly what effect a challenge like this will have on long term health. I agree it will have some effects, but exactly what I've no idea. Certainly not enough idea in my mind to justify calling it off on those grounds alone. Steve had accepted the risk that comes with doing it for 12 months, and I don't think (or know of any evidence) that the risk becomes much greater continuing on for a further 8 months.

There aren't many people to base a study on at all. Not people who've done this kind of endurance event at least, and not all 'endurance' events can be counted equally. Several riders made more than one complete attempt at the record (Ossie Nicholson, Bernard Bennett, Rene Menzies) in their lifetime although none consecutively. The closest are the people that went for the 100,000 mile records as they continued for ~17 months.

[Greenbank]

I wonder if the mods would be good enough to remove the "2015" from the board title, since it no longer is? Kajsa's and Bruce's attempts most definitely do not belong under that heading.

Better still, how about a new Sub-forum under Rides & Touring, entitled "World Record Attempts"?

After all - these attempts have little or nothing to do with Audax.

I'm sure someone will be along soon to ask why there's so much negativity towards Steve and the attempt forthcoming new record based on discussions of where on the forum the sub-forum should be located and exactly what the title of the sub-forum should be.

Maybe we need a "Thoughts on the current record attempt thread title and sub-forum location?" thread.

[Exit Stage Left]

Maybe even an, 'I knew nothing about this until I got I book for Christmas, and now I'm an expert', thread.

[Greenbank]

I'm going to wait until the end of the month to hear what Steve's intentions are. While I agree that Idai probably didn't mean there would be a hard end point at the end of Jan, my understanding is that there is to be a review and a sharing of intentions. I'm as interested in how the plan has been arrived at as I am in the content of the plan.

We're back to the binary interpretations of things (which I freely admit I tend to do, probably more than others). After "a review and a sharing of intentions" it should be pretty obvious whether he'll be continuing to strive for the record or he won't be. I doubt it'll be "I'll continue to ride the bike and see if I'm lucky enough to do the right number of miles to get the record." but it may be "The main record is most likely out of reach but I'm going to aim for a PB."

Steve may fail to set a new record, but that does not make Steve a failure.

I expect the run rate to continue to climb through Jan but for the ride to trundle on.

Same here, but that seems to be the initial part of the plan.

An outline of the plan would be great, although it doesn't really matter how much detail is shared it's never going to be enough for some people and there's always going to be room for assumptions, conjecture and doubt, so I don't think it will change much in that respect. People would just have some different things to get all frothy about.

[Karla]

I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that.  Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?

If your PBs were going to be national records, and you could provide some evidence that you've got a reasonable chance then some may consider donating.

So if you're going for the 10 mile TT record (17:20 by Dowsett isn't it?) show me your results where you've done, I dunno, sub 18:20 and I'd consider donating.

Money probably best spent on something like Aerocoach and getting CdA down before swanky wheels though.

Well yes, that's the point: it's the difference between a record attempt and a PB.  I sponsored Steve right at the start, before the regular giving scheme was even set up, when I thought he had a serious chance at the record, but now that's vanishingly unlikely to happen and he's just going for a PB.  Well that makes two of us, him and me, and I don't see his non-record-breaking quest for a 1 year PB as any more worthy a target than my quest for a(nother) 4 hour 100, so I shan't be funding it. 

To be honest, I really wish everyone would stop funding him as that might make him take a colder, more rational assessment of his chances than the current situation, where he's got a comfortable financial cushion of ongoing donations to a record attempt that isn't a record attempt anymore.

[Exit Stage Left]

An outline of the plan would be great, although it doesn't really matter how much detail is shared it's never going to be enough for some people and there's always going to be room for assumptions, conjecture and doubt, so I don't think it will change much in that respect. People would just have some different things to get all frothy about.

Steve's schedule was made public before he started. When Kurt published his it was commented that it mirrored Steve's and much discussion ensued.

A lot of the manoeuvring which has defined the debate happened around the start of Steve's ride. The moped incident put paid to that developing debate. Steve wasn't keeping to his schedule, Kurt was, and continued to do so with the odd wobble.

Since then it's been unclear what Steve's aims are. If you don't have a schedule, you can't be off it.
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87329.0

[Greenbank]

but now that's vanishingly unlikely to happen and he's just going for a PB.

We don't know that for certain though. We don't have any clear idea of his intentions.

To be honest, I really wish everyone would stop funding him as that might make him take a colder, more rational assessment of his chances than the current situation, where he's got a comfortable financial cushion of ongoing donations to a record attempt that isn't a record attempt anymore.

I don't think that would have any real effect on his current attempt:-

In my opinion if all funding stopped now, there would be enough in the pot to fund the 2nd attempt to 7th Aug 2016 and still leave a 5 figure sum to be donated to charity  -- but using some of the surplus at 8.8.16 to allow Steve to settle back into " real" life might be seen as reasonable.

[Karla]

Yeah, I know he's got money in the bank, but it might at least give him a bit of a jolt.

His intentions don't really matter: AFAICS he's ridden himself into the ground and isn't going to get any records without a stop and restart.  All he can possibly aim for now is a personal PB, which puts him on the same level as amateur racing cyclists the world over, and about as worthy of funding.

[Greenbank]

Steve's schedule was made public before he started. When Kurt published his it was commented that it mirrored Steve's and much discussion ensued.

A lot of the manoeuvring which has defined the debate happened around the start of Steve's ride. The moped incident put paid to that developing debate. Steve wasn't keeping to his schedule, Kurt was, and continued to do so with the odd wobble.

Really?

According to jo's visualisations Steve was tracking his upper schedule almost perfectly until moped day (daily distance wise, not in terms of average speed and riding time, which was the reason why that schedule wasn't going to be sustainable for much longer).

Kurt on the other hand rode a reasonably flat profile, not much like his schedule at all, and he was almost 4000 miles down on his schedule at the end of October. Luckily his schedule was to beat Tommy's record by 3500 miles and he pulled it back in the last month.

[Exit Stage Left]

Steve's schedule was made public before he started. When Kurt published his it was commented that it mirrored Steve's and much discussion ensued.

A lot of the manoeuvring which has defined the debate happened around the start of Steve's ride. The moped incident put paid to that developing debate. Steve wasn't keeping to his schedule, Kurt was, and continued to do so with the odd wobble.

Really?

According to jo's visualisations Steve was tracking his upper schedule almost perfectly until moped day (daily distance wise, not in terms of average speed and riding time, which was the reason why that schedule wasn't going to be sustainable for much longer).

Kurt on the other hand rode a reasonably flat profile, not much like his schedule at all, and he was almost 4000 miles down on his schedule at the end of October. Luckily his schedule was to beat Tommy's record by 3500 miles and he pulled it back in the last month.

The last day before the accident, and a week after the equinox.

[geraldc]

At the start of the attempt, there was a lot of talk about how to handle sleep debt, I don't think Kurt had any problems with that.