[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[hillbilly]

Anyway....

Not that it matters one iota, but my current view is that Steve is not going to get exceed Tommy's total in 2015.  Too big an ask, through no fault of his own (pesky moped drunkards etc etc).  I look forward to his future record attempt, which his currently sporadic longer mileage days will help prepare him for.  (My interest has waned as Steve's chances of pulling this out of the bag have become more and more unrealistic).

Kurt looks likely to exceed Tommy's total if he stays injury free.  He's consistent, I'll give him that.  Simple plan, well executed.

Miles is an enigma.  I have no idea what he will end up doing.  Which makes him jolly interesting.  But if I'm honest I'm not really following him closely because of the separation in start time between him and Steve/Kurt.

Tommy Godwin looks down on events smug in the knowledge that the mark he set is f**king hard to beat.

[mzjo]

re OYTT and the fact that T Godwin was a senior or (now) elite racer surely our current competitors should be classed as vets and have a standard distance for the record. I think Kurt may well be ahead on standard by a good bit - but anyone like to suggest what the standard distances would be, if it really were a One Year Time Trial?

Of course they might all (including Mr Godwin) be disqualified for taking pace 

[Wowbagger]

All this discussion indicates that we are not comparing like with like. Steve has demonstrated, as has Kurt, that as solo riders they can keep pace with Tommy's record - up to the point at which he was paced by pros. His effort clearly tailed off after the end of October, which (possibly) means that he felt he had done enough, or that wartime blackout conditions made riding huge daily distances harder. Is there any record anywhere which indicates which it was?

[red marley]

I would have thought that amphetamines would be pretty useless for an event like this. They might allow you to do a few all-nighters, or give a temporary boost, but there's always payback later. Riding day in, day out, the payback would far outweigh the benefit.

As the man Obree says, TTing is not about going fast, it's about not going slow.

[TimC]

All this discussion indicates that we are not comparing like with like. Steve has demonstrated, as has Kurt, that as solo riders they can keep pace with Tommy's record - up to the point at which he was paced by pros. His effort clearly tailed off after the end of October, which (possibly) means that he felt he had done enough, or that wartime blackout conditions made riding huge daily distances harder. Is there any record anywhere which indicates which it was?

I think a combination of the withdrawal of the pacemen/cars, the lack of daylight and the blackout and the weather (though I think the autumn of '39 was fairly benign, was it not?) all quite reasonably conspired to bring the daily miles down from the dizzy heights of June/July.

[Exit Stage Left]

We can never know if Godwin took speed. It's probable that he would have encountered it in transport cafes in the form of Benzedrine, as lorry drivers used it to complete their journeys. Artists used it too.

Of course, bennies had a tendency to ruin the body of the person using them. Auden's death from heart failure at age 66 was, to a considerable extent, a result of his decades of practicing, with the connivance of his doctors, "the chemical life.

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/04/the-lost-world-of-benzedrine/255904/

[Wowbagger]

I have to say that, given that Steve is ratcheting up some prodigious distances at the moment, it would seem like a good time to launch a concurrent attempt.

I have been hunting around for the UMCA rules on such things, but have been unable to find them. Anyones google-fu better than mine?

[CrazyEnglishTriathlete]

I'm not sure I'm worried about the record.  If Steve keeps doing a little over 200 miles a day average he will clock up between 65,000 and 75,000 miles in a year which is a mindblowing achievement, more than most on this forum will achieve in their lifetime, and more than anyone else apart from Tommy Godwin has achieved before.  I will keep watching his progress in awe. 

[Wowbagger]

But it's in order to break the record that Steve started this crazy thing. I'm assuming that is what he still wants to do.

[red marley]

200 miles average per day for the remains of the year would give him about 66,000. To reach 75,000 he now has to do 250 miles per day. There's quite a difference in effort and organisation required between those two, especially as he approaches winter. In audax money it's the difference between doing a slightly over distance 300 or a 400 ~every day for six months~.

It also seems likely that Kurt will exceed Tommy's total - at the rate he is riding probably by a couple of thousand miles. That would most likely put Steve about "third" behind Kurt and Tommy, or possibly "fourth" behind Bennett's total of 65,127 miles.

[CrazyEnglishTriathlete]

But it's in order to break the record that Steve started this crazy thing. I'm assuming that is what he still wants to do.

Steve has always struck me as a level headed guy.  On last year's Brimstone, when I was suffering from the early stages of a Campylobacter infection and somewhat concerned that I might not make the end of the lane from the control let alone the nearest station or heaven forbid, the finish, his advice was "you've got to cycle 20 miles to get to somewhere where you can bail - by then you will probably complete the ride."   One of the best pieces of advice, because he was dead right - but only someone utterly laid back about things could take on the event the way he does.  I think he will ride as well as he can and if he makes the record all well and good.  If he doesn't, I would be surprised if he carries on to December 2016 taking the 100,000 mile record, a one year record and two year record into the bargain. 

I'm just saying...  There's no secret intelligence to this - I admire Steve for the way that he is totally unaffected by mishaps.

PS -I got round the Brimstone thanks to Steve's level headed advice.

[Martin]

I would be surprised if he carries on to December 2016 taking the 100,000 mile record, a one year record and two year record into the bargain. 

That's fine if there are funds available for him to do this

[Wowbagger]

Steve is a very level-headed guy. Of all the people I have ridden with, I think he is the most effective at cutting the crap, analysing what needs to be done and getting on with it. That is what leads to my puzzlement at the past month or so. His recent pattern of 250ish followed by 200 days would be absolutely what was needed if he hadn't had the loss of all those miles in April and May, but aren't enough for getting past Tommy in 2015 given what happened. That is why it seems to me that a concurrent attempt* starting about now would give him a big boost by the time the weather starts to get bad (late October say) and by then his asking rate for the rest of the year to July/Aug 2016 would probably be something below 200 mpd.

OK, by then Kurt, if he stays accident- and injury-free, will probably have notched up about 78000, but I feel very confident that Steve can beat that, based on his first 4 months of the year, provided he too remains accident- and injury-free.

*It could be that the purist in him still wants his record to run 1st Jan to 31st December, or 30th, as it will be next year for 365 days, irrespective of what the UMCA rules say.

[SoreTween]

That is what leads to my puzzlement at the past month or so. His recent pattern of 250ish followed by 200 days would be absolutely what was needed if he hadn't had the loss of all those miles in April and May, but aren't enough for getting past Tommy in 2015 given what happened.

My rampant speculation on the 30th still feels right to me.  He's increased his average slightly since that post so is on target to have the 15k miles done by the end of this month.  His intention to do a restart has been confirmed recently, if it is going to be at the start of August it'll be lodged with the UMCA on Friday or Monday assuming it can't be done on Saturday (exactly 21 days from the 1st Aug).  It's all still very speculative but I can see no reason other than the 100,000 record for the current activity.

[Kim]

Maybe he's just not happy with the state of his ankle, and is waiting for it to improve?

[Ben T]

He may have already restarted for all we know. After all I would have thought it would be better to keep the actual date he does a restart on a "need-to-know" basis.

[Wowbagger]

Maybe he's just not happy with the state of his ankle, and is waiting for it to improve?

That has also occurred to me.

He may have already restarted for all we know. After all I would have thought it would be better to keep the actual date he does a restart on a "need-to-know" basis.

I thought it had to be published, but again, I can't find the rules.

[Exit Stage Left]

I suppose Steve is following a structured training regime for the 24 hours at the end of next week.
It will be interesting to see what effect the workload of the record attempt has had on his speed.

[simonp]

I suppose Steve is following a structured training regime for the 24 hours at the end of next week.
It will be interesting to see what effect the workload of the record attempt has had on his speed.

As am I. I think he will be much faster.

[redfalo]

I would have thought that amphetamines would be pretty useless for an event like this. They might allow you to do a few all-nighters, or give a temporary boost, but there's always payback later. Riding day in, day out, the payback would far outweigh the benefit.

As the man Obree says, TTing is not about going fast, it's about not going slow.

+1

[mattc]

That is what leads to my puzzlement at the past month or so. His recent pattern of 250ish followed by 200 days would be absolutely what was needed if he hadn't had the loss of all those miles in April and May, but aren't enough for getting past Tommy in 2015 given what happened.

My rampant speculation on the 30th still feels right to me.  He's increased his average slightly since that post so is on target to have the 15k miles done by the end of this month.  His intention to do a restart has been confirmed recently, if it is going to be at the start of August it'll be lodged with the UMCA on Friday or Monday assuming it can't be done on Saturday (exactly 21 days from the 1st Aug).  It's all still very speculative but I can see no reason other than the 100,000 record for the current activity.

That sounds pretty reasonable.
Has anyone done the sums - is the last month on a schedule that will get him the 100k record?

[DaveE128]

My optimism for the attempt over this calendar year is rapidly turning to pessimism I was wondering whether Steve might continue ramping up the rate of mileage but it looks increasingly out of reach to me now Hope I'm wrong. Looking forward to hearing an announcement on the restart. 

Edit: looking at http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/calendar#year=2015&month=7&day=1&view=month My guess is that the restart will be the start of August.

[Wobbly John]

As posted upthread, Teethgrinder's team suggested, on Steve's Facebook profile, that an August re-start is a probability.

Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end. He realises the 'audacity' of the task, but at this point he's still willing to give it everything he has. He is likely to start running a concurrent (new) record attempt next month, so that he still gives himself a full 12 months to see what he is truly capable of. That's the plan thus far. Regards, Steve's Support Team.

[red marley]

Putting aside the restart bit, I still have difficulty in seeing how

Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end.

is compatible with the mileage he is currently putting in. He needs to be doing an average of over 250 mpd, which, if he's not doing in July, will find even tougher in December.

I so want to be wrong in this, but I'm inclined to agree with DaveE128.

[tonyh]

Watching with great interest, whatever happens.

And hoping Steve feels "OK+" more often than anything else.