Author Topic: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 252701 times)

hillbilly

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #325 on: 18 August, 2015, 01:26:44 pm »
Currently wondering if Steve will get PBP validated.  ACP regulations retain the traditional wording that it is not possible to participate in another event at the same time as a BRM.  Did he get special dispensation from ACP?

mattc

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #326 on: 18 August, 2015, 05:32:42 pm »
based on a few clues this week, I'm almost certain ACP know about HAMR and are being helpful.
remember; French rules are not as equal as others!

(but if he doesnt get validated I can't see Steve caring much.)
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #327 on: 18 August, 2015, 09:44:46 pm »
With all this restart and PBP excitement, we seem to have overlooked that Teethgrinder has passed the halfway point to Tommy Godwin's total mileage.  :)

Go Steve!
If it ain't broke, fix it 'til it is...

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #328 on: 19 August, 2015, 07:50:48 am »
Steve rode PBP so ACP can boast next year "New HAM'R record holder rode our event."

In French of course, or something like "Paris-Brest-Paris helps new HAM'R record holder on his way to victory. Shame he's a Ros-biff."

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #329 on: 19 August, 2015, 09:44:47 am »
I can't help but think that, although he is slightly ahead of THE GODWIN LINE, Miles is not in a position to be effectively challenging Godwin or Tarzan.  If his intention is to shadow Godwin's mileages throughout the year, he's got a bit of a struggle ahead of him to match the 300+ mile days - nothing he's done in this attempt or the last has convinced me that he has the speed and consistency to do that (but I would love to be proved wrong).

red marley

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #330 on: 19 August, 2015, 10:01:50 am »
I agree with your assessment, although I'm not sure which Godwin line you are referring to. Currently he is 700 miles or so behind Godwin's actual distance by day 63 and around 3,800 miles behind Godwin's WR pace. I can't see much evidence that he'll be able to catch up from this position.

Miles faces a tough job in that he has less public attention than Steve and Kurt. He's doing impressive distances by normal standards, but is eclipsed by the other two. Being in the same age category as Kurt, he probably won't even get the satisfaction of leading in his age group. However, if he were to prove us wrong, it would make for a dramatic and exciting story for the OYTT.

hillbilly

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #331 on: 19 August, 2015, 10:25:38 am »
Just goes to show how tough this challenge is.  3,800miles over 300 days is an extra 12 to 13 miles a day over Godwin's WR pace.  Or another 45 minutes (or thereabouts) on the bike.  Doesn't sound like much, but it broadly means Miles beginning to do and maintaining the distance that Kurt is currently banging out in "summer" conditions.  I'm guessing he remains confident he can do it, even if to some of us it feels beyond what is possible.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #332 on: 19 August, 2015, 11:37:43 am »
I agree with your assessment, although I'm not sure which Godwin line you are referring to. Currently he is 700 miles or so Godwin's actual distance by day 63 and around 3,800 miles behind Godwin's WR pace. I can't see much evidence that he'll be able to catch up from this position.

Miles faces a tough job in that he has less public attention than Steve and Kurt. He's doing impressive distances by normal standards, but is eclipsed by the other two. Being in the same age category as Kurt, he probably won't even get the satisfaction of leading in his age group. However, if he were to prove us wrong, it would make for a dramatic and exciting story for the OYTT.

Oops, my bad, I was looking at the graphs and of course I was only seeing where Miles was on Day 16 relative to The Godwin Line (by which I meant what Godwin actually achieved, not his year-averaged pace).  Since you've stopped showing the entire year on one graph, I'd lost track of how much mileage Miles was losing to the others and even to The Godwin Line.  I'd given up following him on Strava because he was clogging up my news feed with 0-milers.  Goodness, it really doesn't look great for him.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #333 on: 19 August, 2015, 04:08:34 pm »
did any one notice in one of kurts videos - i think it was the one with the bin lorry nearly taking him out  :o

i don't know if it was tongue in cheek, but he said he was going to finish in California so he could get an extra 3 hours riding in

that within the rules?

mattc

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #334 on: 19 August, 2015, 04:31:19 pm »
Do you REALLY want an answer to that, Dan?!?
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #335 on: 19 August, 2015, 07:13:08 pm »
yes REALLY  ::-)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #336 on: 19 August, 2015, 07:54:01 pm »
The weather has really been against Miles the past month or so but as in his first attempt I'm finding it hard to take this attempt seriously yet either. He's falling behind and has shown little evidence of being able to bang out the huge distances consistently that will be required.

Kurt on the other hand is a machine, very impressed with his consistency over the past few months. Barring disaster he's got it in the bag.

Steve (x2) will depend on how benign Autumn 2015 and Winter 2015/16 is. I hope he can get a good buffer of miles under his belt before any prolonged bad weather. I've noticed that his daily mileage is considerably lower than even his most pessimistic schedule for mid-August though. But that schedule looks to have been way too optimistic now?

Kurt's straight line tactic appears to be the "winning" formula for the moment.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #337 on: 19 August, 2015, 07:55:14 pm »
did any one notice in one of kurts videos - i think it was the one with the bin lorry nearly taking him out  :o

i don't know if it was tongue in cheek, but he said he was going to finish in California so he could get an extra 3 hours riding in

that within the rules?

He can ride for no more than 24hrs a day wherever he is.

Mr Larrington

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #338 on: 19 August, 2015, 10:09:27 pm »
I imagine he could take advantage of the different time zones across USAnia and gain an hour, but anything requiring crossing multiple zones is going to need a plane or long car journey.  But I rather think that by that time twenty-odd miles isn't going to make a huge difference  ;D
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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #339 on: 19 August, 2015, 10:44:57 pm »
Yes you are right Steve needs to up his mileage if possible? ??
he looked really knackered on PBP and couldn't really speak very well.

 :facepalm: :facepalm: ??? ???

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #340 on: 21 August, 2015, 08:53:08 pm »
he looked really knackered on PBP and couldn't really speak very well.

 :facepalm: :facepalm: ??? ???

Eh?
You're only as successful as your last 1200...

mattc

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #341 on: 06 September, 2015, 05:35:01 pm »
Is there a rebooted schedule?
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #342 on: 06 September, 2015, 06:20:50 pm »
I have asked but there doesn't seem to be

 :facepalm:


Basil

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #343 on: 06 September, 2015, 06:41:05 pm »
Not a grumble, but it is difficult to remain engaged with so little information for the "crowd".
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mattc

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #344 on: 06 September, 2015, 06:46:45 pm »
I'm pretty sure Steve has some rough figures in his mind, but I was wondering if anything firm-ish had been published.

( It must be difficult to sort such things out when you're tired/broken/on-the-mend/riding. )
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

TimC

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #345 on: 06 September, 2015, 10:54:48 pm »
My guess is that Steve has learned a lot from both Kurt's approach and his own difficulties, and has come to realise that the 240-260 mile days he originally planned for the summer are just not likely to be practicable at the speeds he's able to reliably maintain and the sleep he needs. Therefore a more workable 210-230 mile schedule in the better weather, reducing to a 180-190 mile schedule in the worst of the winter, may give him more chance of making the reboot attemprt work to beat Tommy. Whether that's enough to beat Kurt is another matter entirely.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #346 on: 07 September, 2015, 08:46:20 am »
Not a grumble, but it is difficult to remain engaged with so little information for the "crowd".


Agreed
 :facepalm:

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #347 on: 07 September, 2015, 08:54:47 am »
My guess is that Steve has learned a lot from both Kurt's approach and his own difficulties, and has come to realise that the 240-260 mile days he originally planned for the summer are just not likely to be practicable at the speeds he's able to reliably maintain and the sleep he needs. Therefore a more workable 210-230 mile schedule in the better weather, reducing to a 180-190 mile schedule in the worst of the winter, may give him more chance of making the reboot attemprt work to beat Tommy. Whether that's enough to beat Kurt is another matter entirely.

Let us all hope that with this week's weather expected to be ideal let us hope he can start real mile eating.
In the 6 days of Sept he has averaged some 211 mls a day.  In August sadly (partly cos of PBP lurgy) he only averaged about 191 mls a day.  I hope but I do not see the average getting to the daily average of the 206 needed for a few weeks,  hopefully by the end of Sept.  what do the rest of you envisage?

 :thumbsup:

LEE

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Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #348 on: 07 September, 2015, 11:26:52 am »
he looked really knackered on PBP and couldn't really speak very well.

 :facepalm: :facepalm: ??? ???

Eh?

I rode with Steve for an hour on PBP, around lunchtime on day 2.  He was yawning continually.

This is understandable when you realise he'd cycled straight from Dieppe, onto the start-line and into PBP, basically adding 200km to the start of his PBP.  He would have then ridden immediately into the night.
Some people say I'm self-obsessed but that's enough about them.

hillbilly

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #349 on: 07 September, 2015, 12:12:25 pm »
what do the rest of you envisage?

I think Steve that when the clocks go forward still will have got to a point where his is averaging just over the Godwin pace (complete guess: he will max out at 210 miles a day average) and will maintain that differential for as long as the weather holds out and then drift beneath it, but always within the realistic realm to make up the deficit in the Spring/Summer (if he keeps fit and well).

I suspect one of the benefits of his current approach, where he starts later in the morning, is that, come winter, the frost and fog will have a better chance of melting away by the time he starts.  The trade off is riding later into the blackened hours, but I imagine that works better psychologically (I think it makes a different if you start in light and end in dark, as opposed to starting and finishing in the dark).

But all a guess.  Steve is in uncharted territory for 21st century cyclists.

The unknown is whether he will be above or below the Seavogel line.  Kurt is doing a proper job on the record, and I'd guess he will end a couple of 1000 miles beyond where Godwin ended up, all being well.  That sounds a lot, but translates to 5 miles or so more a day on average that Godwin.