Dont underestimate Steve's determination. :)
The chance of Steve beating the tommy Godwin record are slim in this year.
- Steve's chance is gone for 2015.
.. which will include a 'bonus' day on Feb 29 .. 8)
[Are there UMCA rulez about 366 day years?? eg Miles will do one, but Kurt won't?]
Been busy this week so hadn't noticed how Steve has upped his mileage to 100 miles per day one legged.
I hesitate to comment without first tracking down my sources but I'm sure I saw a comment from one of his team this week saying his ankle is not very happy. And TG himself said on here a few days ago (which thread??) that he feels in need of physiotherapy. I hope that's being lined up sooner rather than later.Been busy this week so hadn't noticed how Steve has upped his mileage to 100 miles per day one legged.
No, he's now firing on both cylinders, though presumably the left leg is still doing the bulk of the work. It does suggest that his ankle is happy with the range of motion, which can only be a good sign.
so is the attempt still going? just doing a bit of maths it's going to require an average of 241 miles a day for the rest of the year (ie until 31st Dec) for Steve to break it
Steve is going for it. Today tracker shows 236.07 miles. He's been doing longer rides at the weekend and then gradually upping the weekday rides.Hope the ankle is well. Looking like it won't be too long before we see a ride approaching 300 miles!!!!!
So the required is almost a 400km each day, witha 400km recovery ride the next dayno recovery ride, and repeat... Mind is boggling again.
Go Steve!
So the required is almost a 400km each day, witha 400km recovery ride the next dayno recovery ride, and repeat... Mind is boggling again.
Go Steve!
Go Steve indeed.
BUT ...
I really don't think it is constructive to speculate on an average of 400km/day for the rest of the year.
Some day - perhaps in my lifetime - we'll see a sub 2hr marathon. But this is the sub 1:50 equivalent. Possible to maintain the pace for a couple of days but not humanely possible to keep up through summer, autumn and winter.
Matching Tommy Goodwin is pretty superhuman. Shading the record is possible and probable if all things went well. But smashing it to smithereens, is just not on the cards. Some sanity please.
Miles is clearly insane and I just don't think any human is capable of doing what he's trying to do for 365 days without their body breaking down at some point.
ps which 400 or 600 is he doing this weekend for PBP ???
Riding the same event twice doesn't count. I make it that he has ridden 200, 400 and 600 qualifiers so far.
Steve isn't 50, but I definitely do take your point.
The 'bounce back' ability of a 29-year-old is far greater than someone over 40.
In case you missed it, the OYTT chart page (http://gicentre.org/oytt/) always shows the required daily average figure for each rider. It's at the bottom of the page in the column 'Min target (mpd)'.Yes I had missed it. Thanks for poiting it out. (and thanks for all the visualisation goodness).
Thanks Jo and the most astounding thing to me is Kurt's average 17.6 overall . I know he uses a recumbent and must do flat loops but ??
So, what is Steve's current plan: still to re-start on 1 July?
It's not on his website, or anywhere else obvious.
I tend to disagree, I think that Steve and team do have a plan but they are in competition with two others. It is a competition and Steve gave away an advantage at the start by publishing a plan, so that one of the competitors could copy it. and then ride a few more miles a day than Steve each and every day. I feel that Steve is much better keeping his powder dry and not publishing plans. It is enough that the competitors can see what he is doing day by day.
Lack of info just could be a reason that donations appear to have dried up.
From another cycling forumAt this stage, its just a rumour spread by you!QuoteLack of info just could be a reason that donations appear to have dried up.
Is this correct - I hope not
From another cycling forumAt this stage, its just a rumour spread by you!QuoteLack of info just could be a reason that donations appear to have dried up.
Is this correct - I hope not
2) -and this is more interesting - that any record not set January- December will be discredited by history as all previous records have been set that way - thus negating a July restart.
Or innings. Or match ...
I went to a talk today at Eroica Brittania on the subject of Walter Greave's record - and quite naturally the subject of Steve's attempt came up.
The speaker (whose name I have mislaid) made a couple of observations that I disagree with but, I think hearing dissenting voices can be interesting:
1) Steve needs to considerably up his mph in order not to get into serious sleep deficit or fall behind on his miles
2) -and this is more interesting - that any record not set January- December will be discredited by history as all previous records have been set that way - thus negating a July restart.
The speaker was fairly certain that Steve would 'fail' in his record attempt. Sod that - he's a hero already in my eyes.
I went to a talk today at Eroica Brittania on the subject of Walter Greave's record - and quite naturally the subject of Steve's attempt came up.
The speaker (whose name I have mislaid) made a couple of observations that I disagree with but, I think hearing dissenting voices can be interesting:
1) Steve needs to considerably up his mph in order not to get into serious sleep deficit or fall behind on his miles
2) -and this is more interesting - that any record not set January- December will be discredited by history as all previous records have been set that way - thus negating a July restart.
The speaker was fairly certain that Steve would 'fail' in his record attempt. Sod that - he's a hero already in my eyes.
What odds was he offering, or wasn't he prepared to 'put his money where his ( big ) mouth is'?
If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was.
If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was.
That.
To prove the new hub to the “speedman”, Raleigh-Sturmey Archer engaged Charlies Holland, Bert James and Sid Ferris to undertake a series of long distance rides on Raleigh Record Aces with AR hubs to beat the records then held by derailleur-equipped machines starting in summer 1937. On 3 June Ferris did Edinburgh-London in 20 hours 19 minutes, besting the previous record by 1 ½ hours and 20 July Land’s End to John O’Groats in 2 days 6 hours 33 minutes, beating Opperman’s time by 2 hours 28 minutes and standing for 21 years. When his June Edinburgh-London record was disallowed because of a rule violation by a assistant rider that October, the opportunity was seized to try again that month and Ferris broke the record again despite riding 15 hours of it in the dark and also proving the worth of another new (1936) Sturmey-Archer innovation, the 12 v. dynohub lighting system.
On 19 March 1938 Bert James cut 9 mins. 53 secs. off the 100-mile record on an RRA with AR hub, clocking 3 hours 45 mins and 51 secs. for an average speed of 27 mph. That year Sid Ferris capped his remarkable career breaking the RRA 24-hour record at 465.75 miles from Edinburgh to the South Coast, again using a Record Ace with the AR hub and Dynohub. That year, Charles Holland, riding for Raleigh/Sturmey-Archer, broke the RRA record for Liverpool-Edinburgh in June, clocking 10 hours for the 210 miles, 12 minutes faster than the previous record held by Frank Southall. On 13 October 1938 he dropped 25 minutes off the Land’s End-London record, doing the 287 miles in 13 hours 44 minutes at an average 21 mph despite hours of rain and four punctures en route riding the new Charles Holland Continental model of the RRA (see below) with an AM hub. Another RRA with AR hub record run was Bert James’ London-Portsmouth roundtrip (137 miles) clocked at 8 hours, 33 minutes and 57 seconds despite poor weather and punctures.
If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was.
That.
+1.
361 miles in ONE day?? We are all sure that Tommy Godwin wasn't an android sent from the future tostop John Connor being born and ensure the machines will take over the worldset an actual unbeatable record? (not that I think it is unbeatable...my current thought on the attempt is that Steve can still do it).
Who are you competing against Tommy Godwin or Kurt Searvogel?
Neither. I’m just trying to do as many miles as I can and pass Godwin’s total. I’m not competing against him - as he’s not here - and I’m riding under different conditions.
Given that there have been a number of ~205mile rides recently, it could be that Steve has already started a new/concurrent attempt... Just speculation.Yes, that seems a sound speculation!
Go Steve!
Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end. He realises the 'audacity' of the task, but at this point he's still willing to give it everything he has. He is likely to start running a concurrent (new) record attempt next month, so that he still gives himself a full 12 months to see what he is truly capable of. That's the plan thus far. Regards, Steve's Support Team.
From Steves facebook page -QuoteSteve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end. He realises the 'audacity' of the task, but at this point he's still willing to give it everything he has. He is likely to start running a concurrent (new) record attempt next month, so that he still gives himself a full 12 months to see what he is truly capable of. That's the plan thus far. Regards, Steve's Support Team.
No login required
https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015 (https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015)
Good to see that the concurrent attempt is still in the pipeline.
Go Steve !
Has it been confirmed that the UCMA will accept concurrent attempts by an athlete?
So, whether the original attempt continues or this becomes a new attempt from some date in the near future, Steve needs to be racking up those 240+mpd efforts while the weather's good and the days are long. It isn't happening, and that worries me.
Agree with previous post though I was thinking that a 1st September re-start more likely than 1st August - but most of all GOOD LUCK Steve.
Wondering about the huge mileages Tommy did through the Summer of '39 - do we know whether these were the result of time on the bike and not much sleep or due to higher speed? If the latter I wonder if being paced had a big effect for Tommy ?
I have been watching this contest/duel between Kurt and Steve with huge interest from the start. Both are exceptional rides ( I have met them both). However, as good as they may be, neither is getting anywhere close to the monstrous daily mileages that Tommy put in. Given the era that this attempt happened and the non-existance of doping rules at the time, is it just possible that dear old Tommy was dropping a snifter of Pot Belge (or something similar) every day? Just a thought.
I'll defend you on this one Climberruss. You are a brave man to make this suggestion; and I think you could be not far from the truth. Amphetamines were available over the counter until September 1939.
I'll defend you on this one Climberruss. You are a brave man to make this suggestion; and I think you could be not far from the truth. Amphetamines were available over the counter until September 1939.
And after September 1939 they were routinely handed out to combatants on both sides.
I don’t think the bromide had any lasting effect, the only way to stop a BRITISH soldier feeling randy is to load bromide into a 300-pound shell and fire it at him from the waist down.
So the modern day equivalent of Tommy’s approach would be for two or three fast cyclists to pace Steve for fifty mile sections.
Five teams of two riders who go out to a location and ride to another fifty miles away, then have to return home to recuperate for the next day is a jolly grand undertaking of logistics and organisation in its own right.
Which means at least ten fully financed ‘domestiques’ on the road 365 continuous days.
At a salary of £480 per week ( to pluck a number out of the air ), that amounts to £250,000 to support the 10 team members.
Where is a ‘modern day’ attempt organisation going to get that kind of cash? Unless I am ignorantly naïve of Steve’s financial status. :o
So the modern day equivalent of Tommy’s approach would be for two or three fast cyclists to pace Steve for fifty mile sections.
Five teams of two riders who go out to a location and ride to another fifty miles away, then have to return home to recuperate for the next day is a jolly grand undertaking of logistics and organisation in its own right.
Which means at least ten fully financed ‘domestiques’ on the road 365 continuous days.
At a salary of £480 per week ( to pluck a number out of the air ), that amounts to £250,000 to support the 10 team members.
Where is a ‘modern day’ attempt organisation going to get that kind of cash? Unless I am ignorantly naïve of Steve’s financial status. :o
It's worth re-reading the Western Daily Press article in Salvatore's post above (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=90295.msg1887000#msg1887000) that makes it clear that they had stopped pacing Godwin (and Bennett) by August. Godwin's professional support from Raleigh only started in April/May so while significant, the opportunity for professional pacing only lasted for three months or so.
So the modern day equivalent of Tommy’s approach would be for two or three fast cyclists to pace Steve for fifty mile sections.
Five teams of two riders who go out to a location and ride to another fifty miles away, then have to return home to recuperate for the next day is a jolly grand undertaking of logistics and organisation in its own right.
Which means at least ten fully financed ‘domestiques’ on the road 365 continuous days.
At a salary of £480 per week ( to pluck a number out of the air ), that amounts to £250,000 to support the 10 team members.
Where is a ‘modern day’ attempt organisation going to get that kind of cash? Unless I am ignorantly naïve of Steve’s financial status. :o
It's worth re-reading the Western Daily Press article in Salvatore's post above (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=90295.msg1887000#msg1887000) that makes it clear that they had stopped pacing Godwin (and Bennett) by August. Godwin's professional support from Raleigh only started in April/May so while significant, the opportunity for professional pacing only lasted for three months or so.
While amphetamines were not illegal to use in Tommy's day, they are viewed very differently now.
I can see this being repeated as "Well he only managed it because of doping". A few repetitions of that and it is taken as 'fact'.
While amphetamines were not illegal to use in Tommy's day, they are viewed very differently now.
I can see this being repeated as "Well he only managed it because of doping". A few repetitions of that and it is taken as 'fact'.
Nobody is saying this mrcharly. Only you. Don't put words into my mouth.
You started suggesting he was taking drugs.
You have no evidence and it is not possible for anyone to disprove it.
I regard this as a shoddy accusation. Own your own words.
First time I've come back to this thread since my post.I agree.
With regard to Arry-R and mrcharly, I am not making accusations, merely raising a discussion point. Back then doping was almost universal with the chief substances being Pot Belge and Amphetamines. Today it is generally accepted but still taboo to talk about the fact that Sean Kelly and Eddy Merckx were doping and yet it's fine to have a go (me included) at a certain Texan.
Surely that was bromide in the Tea?Quote from: Spike MilliganI don’t think the bromide had any lasting effect, the only way to stop a BRITISH soldier feeling randy is to load bromide into a 300-pound shell and fire it at him from the waist down.
You started suggesting he was taking drugs.
You have no evidence and it is not possible for anyone to disprove it.
I regard this as a shoddy accusation. Own your own words.
All this discussion indicates that we are not comparing like with like. Steve has demonstrated, as has Kurt, that as solo riders they can keep pace with Tommy's record - up to the point at which he was paced by pros. His effort clearly tailed off after the end of October, which (possibly) means that he felt he had done enough, or that wartime blackout conditions made riding huge daily distances harder. Is there any record anywhere which indicates which it was?I think a combination of the withdrawal of the pacemen/cars, the lack of daylight and the blackout and the weather (though I think the autumn of '39 was fairly benign, was it not?) all quite reasonably conspired to bring the daily miles down from the dizzy heights of June/July.
Of course, bennies had a tendency to ruin the body of the person using them. Auden's death from heart failure at age 66 was, to a considerable extent, a result of his decades of practicing, with the connivance of his doctors, "the chemical life.http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/04/the-lost-world-of-benzedrine/255904/
But it's in order to break the record that Steve started this crazy thing. I'm assuming that is what he still wants to do.
I would be surprised if he carries on to December 2016 taking the 100,000 mile record, a one year record and two year record into the bargain.
That is what leads to my puzzlement at the past month or so. His recent pattern of 250ish followed by 200 days would be absolutely what was needed if he hadn't had the loss of all those miles in April and May, but aren't enough for getting past Tommy in 2015 given what happened.My rampant speculation on the 30th (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=91645.msg1883996#msg1883996) still feels right to me. He's increased his average slightly since that post so is on target to have the 15k miles done by the end of this month. His intention to do a restart has been confirmed recently, if it is going to be at the start of August it'll be lodged with the UMCA on Friday or Monday assuming it can't be done on Saturday (exactly 21 days from the 1st Aug). It's all still very speculative but I can see no reason other than the 100,000 record for the current activity.
Maybe he's just not happy with the state of his ankle, and is waiting for it to improve?
He may have already restarted for all we know. After all I would have thought it would be better to keep the actual date he does a restart on a "need-to-know" basis.
I suppose Steve is following a structured training regime for the 24 hours at the end of next week.
It will be interesting to see what effect the workload of the record attempt has had on his speed.
I would have thought that amphetamines would be pretty useless for an event like this. They might allow you to do a few all-nighters, or give a temporary boost, but there's always payback later. Riding day in, day out, the payback would far outweigh the benefit.+1
As the man Obree says, TTing is not about going fast, it's about not going slow.
That sounds pretty reasonable.That is what leads to my puzzlement at the past month or so. His recent pattern of 250ish followed by 200 days would be absolutely what was needed if he hadn't had the loss of all those miles in April and May, but aren't enough for getting past Tommy in 2015 given what happened.My rampant speculation on the 30th (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=91645.msg1883996#msg1883996) still feels right to me. He's increased his average slightly since that post so is on target to have the 15k miles done by the end of this month. His intention to do a restart has been confirmed recently, if it is going to be at the start of August it'll be lodged with the UMCA on Friday or Monday assuming it can't be done on Saturday (exactly 21 days from the 1st Aug). It's all still very speculative but I can see no reason other than the 100,000 record for the current activity.
Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end. He realises the 'audacity' of the task, but at this point he's still willing to give it everything he has. He is likely to start running a concurrent (new) record attempt next month, so that he still gives himself a full 12 months to see what he is truly capable of. That's the plan thus far. Regards, Steve's Support Team.
Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end.
Putting aside the restart bit, I still have difficulty in seeing howQuoteSteve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end.
is compatible with the mileage he is currently putting in. He needs to be doing an average of over 250 mpd, which, if he's not doing in July, will find even tougher in December.
I so want to be wrong in this, but I'm inclined to agree with DaveE128.
Steve is now aiming to commence a second (concurrent) record attempt, as he continues to chase down Tommy
Godwin's one year mileage total this year.
I hope winter 2015/16 is kind to Steve. Nov/Dec can be worse than Jan/Feb. I remember a very snowy Dec even in the south a few years ago.
Steve's statement says finances are tight.Fidgetbuzz of this parish. See the One Year Time Trial website for details of how to donate. I think the details are in a sticky in this forum.
Who is the keeper of the wallet and how do we contact them?
Actually fidgetbuzz.Doh! Edited. Thanks, LWaB.
I am currently on an obscure Greek island*** FREEZE THE ACCOUNT ***
I wonder if the incessant 'breeze' in east Anglia could account for some of the slower mph average?
In the past, I think Kurt has benefited from knowing Steve's tactics.
Teethgrinder told me he though Kurt should have got more early mileage in the bank, while he had the opportunity in Florida.
Yes, I don't get that comment either! This isn't a direct competition .
I see Kurt put in his longest ride to date after Steve's email was released.
( In fact I think he will be the new age-group record-holder - "a winner" ?!? )
Florida has its own drawbacks though, like four times the population of Wisconsin in roughly the same area. Kurt definitely suffered from too many bloody cars at times, like when he was being knocked off.
Only one person can hold the record, and we have two riders who appear capable of getting it.No true.
Well ...Quote( In fact I think he will be the new age-group record-holder - "a winner" ?!? )
the age group thing is just a sideline, i doubt either of them cares for the age group record,
what they both want and what it is about, is the out and out record,
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.Exactly. Those vids are basically down to 1 full-time (24x7) helper. Look how many contenders have such a person.
Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.
I overcooked it and have to ease right back
Taking it very easy until the restart on 8th August
#hamr #overtrained #easytiger
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.
Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.
Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.
Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.
It doesn't need to be videos, I'm finding Miles regular faceache updates interesting since his reboot. If he, a clear technophobe, can find a few minutes to let the world know what is occurring couldn't Steve or team? Back when he was touring it was great to read anything posted by the hosts.
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.
Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.
Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.
Go on then !! ;D
Thank you for volunteering. :thumbsup:
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.
Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.
Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.
Go on then !! ;D
Thank you for volunteering. :thumbsup:
If I lived in the UK then I would have no hesitation in helping in whatever way I could. I'm not knocking anybody just stating a clear fact that the media streams are to say the least poor. Just take a look at what a great job Alicia is doing in regards to Kurt's challenge, with just a few minutes each day with either a phone or a cam. If Steve is going to succeed then every other aspect of the challenge has to be given as much effort as Steve puts in to grinding out the miles.
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.
Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.
Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.
Go on then !! ;D
Thank you for volunteering. :thumbsup:
If I lived in the UK then I would have no hesitation in helping in whatever way I could. I'm not knocking anybody just stating a clear fact that the media streams are to say the least poor. Just take a look at what a great job Alicia is doing in regards to Kurt's challenge, with just a few minutes each day with either a phone or a cam. If Steve is going to succeed then every other aspect of the challenge has to be given as much effort as Steve puts in to grinding out the miles.
So you won't be at the picnic in Marsh Gibbon.
The importance of good PR is another question - it won't help Steve get the record.
There has been regular sniping at anyone daring to question Steve's team's approach which I think does everyone a dis-service.
Alicia's videos may not be to everyone's taste but they give a really good flavour of what this event entails and would appeal to a wide audience. Let's not forget he's almost entirely self-funding this so isn't just doing this to keep sponsors happy but actually hopes by putting these out they will capture the public imagination (which I think they do quite effectively).
Steve's team, on the other hand, seem to think (in true audax fashion) that if you're REALLY interested then you will find your way to Strava feeds or UMCA charts where you can follow the stats. Even worse, they seem to actually want to keep stuff secret in case it gives some advantage to his competitors (which I have to say I don't understand at all.)
If it wasn't for YACF (has to be said isn't high in the public consciousness!) and especially Jo's brilliant daily summaries, there would be bugger all to follow. Steve's effort is therefore invisible to 99.99% of the population, even if they know about it from media features. At the end when it's all over, I'm worried that there will be very to show what actually went on during the challenge apart from a few photos and ESL's occasional videos.
He might tell you he doesn't want all the publicity.
The man to ask whether there is enough publicity is the man who's doing all the bicycle riding.
He is sponsored, so is effectively under similar obligations as a professional sportsman.
What the funders want is different. I'm a funder and a host and I never had expectations that I'd be treated differently in terms of information.
This is a tough undertaking, both physically and mentally. Making it more challenging by piling on 'me me me' pressure may not be particularly helpful.
You'll have to stay disappointed. The money is not infinite and Steve's helpers have day jobs to do while Steve is out riding.
Now if you'd consider funding me £50,000 ( a year's salary + costs ), I'd be Steve's 'Live action' cameraman.
Sorry but you can create cheap quality videos for a fraction of £50,000.
Go on then !! ;D
Thank you for volunteering. :thumbsup:
If I lived in the UK then I would have no hesitation in helping in whatever way I could. I'm not knocking anybody just stating a clear fact that the media streams are to say the least poor. Just take a look at what a great job Alicia is doing in regards to Kurt's challenge, with just a few minutes each day with either a phone or a cam. If Steve is going to succeed then every other aspect of the challenge has to be given as much effort as Steve puts in to grinding out the miles.
What the sponsors want from Steve is between him and them. There may be an agreement, there may not. Raleigh are still getting mentions from Tommy Gowdwin, I believe. That's not bad for a sponsorship deal.
What the funders want is different. I'm a funder and a host and I never had expectations that I'd be treated differently in terms of information. This is a tough undertaking, both physically and mentally. Making it more challenging by piling on 'me me me' pressure may not be particularly helpful.
i wonder if the comments on Strava could be disabled, its the most public place his rides are, yet when he does a low a mileage day, the comments are full of negativity, with lots of uniformed people posting and commenting, Steve's from here of course, were more informed that a lot of the public, i have posted updates on his Strava rides before,
the trouble is for the media it now isn't news. It was news when he started, and it'll be news when he finishes it, but the fact that something is still going on the same as it was yesterday and probably the same as it will be tomorrow, is not news, therefore the media will not be interested.Actually, I think there's been quite a lot of interest from mainstream media - more than I expected. But I don't think that's the issue (although I'm sure the sponsors would like more!). For me, it's the more personal stuff. Steve doesn't have an Alycia to take ad-hoc movies, but his team sees him often enough that authoritative updates could easily and frequently be placed on FB, Strava, AUK, and here. Jo does an amazing job collating all the ride info on the various riders, and we have all come to rely on that. We've had two updates from Steve's team in the last month or so - once it became obvious that the current attempt was no longer on track - but I think we'd all appreciate a bit more, and Steve would reap the benefit in more donations at the very least.
In a similar way to how the greek debt crisis is not news any more, and why things like "newsflash! the earth has gone round the sun yet again!" do not generally tend to appear in the media.
What the sponsors want from Steve is between him and them. There may be an agreement, there may not. Raleigh are still getting mentions from Tommy Gowdwin, I believe. That's not bad for a sponsorship deal.
What the funders want is different. I'm a funder and a host and I never had expectations that I'd be treated differently in terms of information. This is a tough undertaking, both physically and mentally. Making it more challenging by piling on 'me me me' pressure may not be particularly helpful.
Yeah, you're right. The sponsors are in it for charity, and Steve should keep everything as secret as possible. Don't want the competitors knowing how he's getting on, after all!
jWhat the sponsors want from Steve is between him and them. There may be an agreement, there may not. Raleigh are still getting mentions from Tommy Gowdwin, I believe. That's not bad for a sponsorship deal.
What the funders want is different. I'm a funder and a host and I never had expectations that I'd be treated differently in terms of information. This is a tough undertaking, both physically and mentally. Making it more challenging by piling on 'me me me' pressure may not be particularly helpful.
Yeah, you're right. The sponsors are in it for charity, and Steve should keep everything as secret as possible. Don't want the competitors knowing how he's getting on, after all!
You've turned "what the sponsors want from Steve" into charity. Well done. Gold star.
Yes, I agre they're not likely to have invested very much. From that point of view it's probably good value, although I'm surprised they haven't capitalised on it more.
the trouble is for the media it now isn't news. It was news when he started, and it'll be news when he finishes it, but the fact that something is still going on the same as it was yesterday and probably the same as it will be tomorrow, is not news, therefore the media will not be interested.Well put. we're pretty much seeing as much "buzz" around Steve at this stage as I would expect.
In a similar way to how the greek debt crisis is not news any more, and why things like "newsflash! the earth has gone round the sun yet again!" do not generally tend to appear in the media.
the trouble is for the media it now isn't news. It was news when he started, and it'll be news when he finishes it, but the fact that something is still going on the same as it was yesterday and probably the same as it will be tomorrow, is not news, therefore the media will not be interested.Well put. we're pretty much seeing as much "buzz" around Steve at this stage as I would expect.
In a similar way to how the greek debt crisis is not news any more, and why things like "newsflash! the earth has gone round the sun yet again!" do not generally tend to appear in the media.
So (@Timc et al), about these Sponsors: what do they want?* Publicity! Are they getting it? Yup.
Period.
And let's review the much-praised publicity from Team Kurt. If it wasnt for one person (Alicia) who is in a position unique to all the competing teams, we would have maybe 1% of the coverage. Likewise, for those not on Facebook - and this may be a hard concept for Facebookers - there is very little out there.
So I'm quite happy that Steve's team are giving us what we need. It was always in the nature of his attempt that things would be crowd-sourced; jo's graphs and other stuff on YACF are emblematic of that, and a big positive :thumbsup:
We don't need weekly repetitive vlogs of flat roads ;)
*(Maybe they're bugging Team Steve behind the scenes for weekly blogs, or a webcam in his bathroom ... we just don't know. )
My recollection is that he started 1YTT with quite low pre start riding for several months - I think you can check it out on Strava.
Aug 8th is going to be a totally different kettle of fish - provided he has the mental strength to be starting now for another year - when he has already been committed for the last 7 months.
First question, will there be any sort of send off for Steve on the 8th? Is he planning a 'night' or 'daytime' start?
Secondly it would be good this time if daily reports resumed and even advanced reports of the direction he might be heading in the following day would give supporters the opportunity to show up and show their support for the next twelve months. I travel a lot with work and have been disappointingly close or too early/late on a number of occasions, when I would otherwise have adjusted my schedule to suit and if nothing else add some encouragement out on the road.
It is better if reports are separated by date, otherwise the reports end up as pages and pages of endless, sometime irrelevant babble.
Doesn't look like to on Trackleaders yet, but is there going to be new page for the new attempt?After decoding the post above [ to / it ? ],
Steve is indeed inspirational and it is such a massive shame that his initial effort was cut short by a piss-head. I wonder where he would have been now if he hadn't been injured.
But starting again must take a determination which is impossible for most of us to comprehend.
I am surprised that Steve seems unwilling to partake of pacing offers which have been made. I can understand the worry of a wheel touching scenario but PBP is likely to have more wheels around that he would ever have on his record attempt.
We eagerly await today's (higher we hope) mileage ??? ???
I don't usually post my thoughts on the current record attempt but seeing that we have near perfect riding conditions at the moment shouldn't Steve be putting in some big distances right now instead of 200-and-a-bit distances?
And does anyone know if Steve is indeed doing PBP? I keep hearing it mentioned but I don't recall seeing any actual details.
Thanks Salvatore. Which group's that?
I don't usually post my thoughts on the current record attempt but seeing that we have near perfect riding conditions at the moment shouldn't Steve be putting in some big distances right now instead of 200-and-a-bit distances?
couldn't agree more with your posting. mileages far too low
Isn't it more a case of the average riding speed being too slow (as it has been from the very start back in January)? Unless Steve can get consistently above 16mph (Kurt is somewhere near 18) then he'll always be struggling with sleep and rest deprivation. The limiting factor is the hours in a day - certainly not Steve's determination.
to the extent that he is currently riding faster than Kurt and as fast as he has at any point during the year.
Not really. He has ridden faster than Kurt on a few days, but that probably coincides with days that Kurt has experienced adverse weather conditions or medical issues.
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.
Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance such as this.
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.
Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance event such as this.
Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.
Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance event such as this.
Let's have a list of more accurate metrics.
So that's:Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.
Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance event such as this.
Let's have a list of more accurate metrics.
Number one on my list would be watts (normalized power). Of course this number alone means little, and you need to monitor all the basic metrics (HR, waking HR, blood pressure before/after rides, sleep hours, RPE, weekly blood tests, etc) in combination with wattage to know if a rider is overdoing it, or leaving something on the table.
Increasing or decreasing daily normalized power to adjust to the riders physiology is *much* more effective than riding to a certain self-imposed HR.
Yesterday's ride had an average HR of 85bpm according to teh Strava.
Slacker!
So that's:Upthread, Kim suggests Steve is pacing with a HRM. That’s a sensible approach.
Not really. Heart rate is the least accurate measure of effort in an ultra endurance event such as this.
Let's have a list of more accurate metrics.
Number one on my list would be watts (normalized power). Of course this number alone means little, and you need to monitor all the basic metrics (HR, waking HR, blood pressure before/after rides, sleep hours, RPE, weekly blood tests, etc) in combination with wattage to know if a rider is overdoing it, or leaving something on the table.
Increasing or decreasing daily normalized power to adjust to the riders physiology is *much* more effective than riding to a certain self-imposed HR.
One (1)
I would also put RPE ahead of HR monitoring for pacing.that's hilarious.
I would also put RPE ahead of HR monitoring for pacing.that's hilarious.
I think I have learned from what I have done so far.
I'm not just going by heart rate but also by feel.
Nor am I riding to a specific heart rate.
Even I don't know my route for the day.
I check the weather each morning then decide. I often change my route during the day
Today is an example. Route change and early stop for a feed so I can buy a front light as I forgot my battery. :facepalm:
Taking things a bit easy to start with.
Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.
Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.
Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.
I do, almost constantly.
Perhaps I should knit myself a headband.
Headbands give you funny sun tan lines on your head :P ;D
Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.
I do, almost constantly.
Perhaps I should knit myself a headband.
I bought one. When Laurant Fignon won the tour.
Headbands give you funny sun tan lines on your head :P ;D
Auks very seldom have a drip of sweat run down into their eye from the brow.
I do, almost constantly.
Perhaps I should knit myself a headband.
I bought one. When Laurant Fignon won the tour.
I agree with your assessment, although I'm not sure which Godwin line you are referring to. Currently he is 700 miles or so Godwin's actual distance by day 63 and around 3,800 miles behind Godwin's WR pace. I can't see much evidence that he'll be able to catch up from this position.
Miles faces a tough job in that he has less public attention than Steve and Kurt. He's doing impressive distances by normal standards, but is eclipsed by the other two. Being in the same age category as Kurt, he probably won't even get the satisfaction of leading in his age group. However, if he were to prove us wrong, it would make for a dramatic and exciting story for the OYTT.
did any one notice in one of kurts videos - i think it was the one with the bin lorry nearly taking him out :o
i don't know if it was tongue in cheek, but he said he was going to finish in California so he could get an extra 3 hours riding in
that within the rules?
he looked really knackered on PBP and couldn't really speak very well.
:facepalm: :facepalm: ??? ???
Not a grumble, but it is difficult to remain engaged with so little information for the "crowd".
My guess is that Steve has learned a lot from both Kurt's approach and his own difficulties, and has come to realise that the 240-260 mile days he originally planned for the summer are just not likely to be practicable at the speeds he's able to reliably maintain and the sleep he needs. Therefore a more workable 210-230 mile schedule in the better weather, reducing to a 180-190 mile schedule in the worst of the winter, may give him more chance of making the reboot attemprt work to beat Tommy. Whether that's enough to beat Kurt is another matter entirely.
he looked really knackered on PBP and couldn't really speak very well.
:facepalm: :facepalm: ??? ???
Eh?
what do the rest of you envisage?
Is an open forum the best place to talk about it ?(click to show/hide)
Following on from Roger's resignation as money man, I'm wondering how many others in the support team will feel able to continue for another 8 months, and will there be other "casualties"?
As I write this, I am not entirely clear who actually is actively part of the support team, as there seems to be some kind of omertà in place which restricts the flow of information to us for fear of "aiding the enemy".
You've already said, Roger, that Steve probably has enough money now to see him through to the end of the concurrent attempt, so I guess the point is moot and the remaining team have no need to consider the feelings and desires of the knowledgeable and passionate supporters, but I think that's a bloody shame. It does kind of feel like our money has been taken without adequate acknowledgement. I wouldn't put any of that on Steve - his job is to ride the bike, and nothing else, and that is an enormous workload. I just don't get the 'knowledge is power, and you're not having it' attitude that seems to have become the culture of the team.
Is an open forum the best place to talk about it ?(click to show/hide)
Given that most of Steve's financial supporters are probably members of this forum, I think it probably is appropriately discussed here.
When Steve didn't ride with (fast) pacers during the summer, he was always going to drop way behind Tommy Godwin.
It has been said before, but it's worth saying over and over. Kurt has Alicia, right there - all day, every day. Kurt doesn't need to do anything except ride bikes (which he does really well); Alicia is always there with food, PR, films, and MTFU kicks out of the RV's door.Yup.
That's a team with success written all over it, right there.
Is an open forum the best place to talk about it ?(click to show/hide)
Given that most of Steve's financial supporters are probably members of this forum, I think it probably is appropriately discussed here.
No it's not and I think you may have misunderstood my reply to LWaB. I wasn't referring to the lack of communication to the YACF supporters by the team during Steve's attempt, or to how the team has been run, but to the changes made in the team during the period just before Steve started and as it involves me it's not for public consumption.
If you want to question all the other stuff, then go ahead, but my involvement in the team and the internal politics at that time doesn't get discussed here.
I would however like to take this opportunity to thank the AUK, YACF and other supporters for their generosity when Mike and I were setting up the register for the hosts.
Time will tell but the implied goings on from FB posts (following his resignation) don't look optimistic to me (wrt to the team).You sound like you are really enjoying it ;D :thumbsup:
Time will tell but the implied goings on from FB posts (following his resignation) don't look optimistic to me (wrt to the team).You sound like you are really enjoying it ;D :thumbsup:
No more then seeing Wobbly making a botch job of his Pashley with a rubber matlet on PBP.
That was a proper A grade lump hammer, I'll have you know.
Arry-R, not sure the arithmetic there is quite right. Steve has 110 days left in 2015. 206 mpd for the remaining time would leave him with around 65,500 for the year.
Steve has stated he might expect some of his longest distance days to be ridden this autumn into winter. There is considerable risk from the weather though, especially unfavourable winds. I imagine the network of places to stay with volunteers would be helpful in that respect so he is not forced to make every ride a MK-based loop.
I'm not sure where the capacity for longer distances is likely to be. Looking at his daily movement patterns, he has already managed to shrink his stopped time to one lunch stop and a short teatime stop. Perhaps lengthening his day by 30 minutes might do it, but I know he is acutely aware that he can't accumulate fatigue through loss of sleep. His daily average moving speed seems to be hovering between 15.5-16.5 mph which is about as fast as it has been during the whole challenge and I don't see much scope to improve that given that he must be as fit now as he will ever be.
It's noticeable that there is less buzz now. I wonder if it is because whilst people respect what is being attempted, it has a more quixotic feel about it.
I'm going to go out and say it:
There just is not enough publicity and feedback to the supporters and sponsors about Steve, his daily progress/feelings/comments and what's going on. In our modern society we have 24/7 news and we are used to over-analysis of 'the famouses'. I'm glad there is enough money in the kitty to sustain Steve to do what he has always wanted and attempt to break the Godwin record, but I suspect there will be a good number of people who do not continue their SOs and even some who may pull theirs early.
When there are charities asking for money to feed starving children, keep the air ambulances in flight, save the donkeys etc etc etc, it may become difficult to support a cause that is starting to look one that is severely lacking support. This is not necessarily my opinion, but it is how it is beginning to appear from the outside world.
If I was Raleigh, Hope or one of the other big sponsors who had provided kit, I would be also rather mortified by the lack of publicity. Of course they may be perfectly happy with the situation, who knows (well indeed, who does know, as we have heard nothing). The pro riders I know all have to work exceptionally hard not just looking after their fitness and health, but in a 'political' manner to ensure that their sponsors get the thanks they deserve by coverage through social media. That's the nature of people giving you stuff/money for free and it's the way the world works.
Kurt and Alicia have this dialled, with the regular updates and it makes the supporters 'feel part' of their attempt. A bit like the Olympics - it's rarely the performances that get people supporting, it's the post run interviews, the pre-race 'look at their training day' documentaries, the reminders of career up and downs that allow people to feel empathy with their cause.
Lets not forget, the harsh reality is, the vast majority of people in this world don't have the luxury of other people giving them money so they can follow their dream and become top level athletes/record breakers/sponsored professionals. Most people have to grind out a day to day existence until the day they die. Even in the UK, with our disposable incomes, growing middle class, luxury lifestyles, there are still starving children and families living in poverty through lack of education/poor parenting/bad luck/drug addiction.
If you are going to have the luxury of following a dream on other people's funding in the modern world, it is an unwritten rule that news and feedback is part of the deal and Steve's team should deal with this. Or maybe Steve should get himself a new team.
[/quot
Rabbit. well done on your posting and very good it was too. Perhaps Steve would wish to have more pro active team members but he hasn't the time to deal with anything other than miles and miles day after day.
Sadly without Roger "we're doomed I tell yee"
" !!
He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.
I'm sure someone on this thread will soon tell us what bad planning this was, how Kurt's team wouldnt do such a thing, blahblahblah ...
He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.
Mike, who organised the hosts, has moved to Malaysia.
He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.
Mike, who organised the hosts, has moved to Malaysia.
Hmmm, there be movement. The Hosts Organiser was still listed on Steve's web site earlier this week and isn't any longer. FB has been removed too, I'm guessing we can probably thank FB for the kick in the wotsits Steve's web man clearly received. Calendar has been cleared, donations page hasn't changed. Concurrent total added. There was a routes master listed earlier in the year, he's disappeared at some point too.News to me (a host) but might explain why I haven't heard much from the team for a while.He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.Mike, who organised the hosts, has moved to Malaysia.
The easiest option is for Steve to shorten his lunch stop. That would require eating on the bike, which might need somebody handing him up a musette of food (including a thermos/ bidon of hot soup during winter?).
I suppose another thing to consider is that Steve himself may not want too much focus or outside attention on the attempt for fear it puts more pressure on him, especially if he isn't convinced that he can actually break the record (which he is recently on record as stating).
He seems to have gone off hosting arrangements or the coordination of it is lacking? ? we know not.
Mike, who organised the hosts, has moved to Malaysia.
Lack of media coverage is sort of deliberate.
Those interviews with the press are a lot of work to plan and if done very well will cost at least 10 miles.
I can't afford to throw that kind of mileage away.
It can only be done on the road with a cycling journalist who rides with me (which has been done twice)
An accompanying motor vehicle would need to comply with UMCA rules or risk getting me disqualified and there is a lot of hassle there.
Simply put, talking costs miles.
After the event, in August next year, everyone can have what they want from me. I'll be out of work so will have time for interviews etc. But now is the time for me to keep riding.
There should be a short film out soon from last night. Even that meant a late start today. Today will be a strategicaly low mileage. Yesterday was pretty good in good conditions but the wind is going to make things tricky today.
Even that short film took a lot of work. My going away for the weekend stuffed up the original plans but I had to do it to get the best mileage I could.
Travelodging seems to be better than hosting. It opens up my options a lot more so I can use the best roads for the wind conditions rather than have to do loops into headwinds etc
Mileage 20 miles up on last week and those 20 miles were done with 20 minutes more riding time, so must be getting faster too, though the last 2 days were very good conditions.
Current aim is to build up on what I am doing I expect it to happen very slowly.
Still have the post PBP lurking in the background too so I still need to be a bit carefull.
But, I can well understand why a host system would not be a good option... as a rando it's way faster just to crash at hotels than to show up at people's houses and be a guest. Chatting takes time away from sleep, and is very appealing after being alone all day. It's hard for both cyclist and host to resist!
YACF isn't held in high regard by (some of) Steve's team,
YACF isn't held in high regard by (some of) Steve's team,
For those of us following on a daily basis, it is largely our main form of update. Can anyone explain why YACF is looked down upon by some of the team?
Lack of media coverage is sort of deliberate.
Those interviews with the press are a lot of work to plan and if done very well will cost at least 10 miles.
I can't afford to throw that kind of mileage away.
It can only be done on the road with a cycling journalist who rides with me (which has been done twice)
An accompanying motor vehicle would need to comply with UMCA rules or risk getting me disqualified and there is a lot of hassle there.
Simply put, talking costs miles.
After the event, in August next year, everyone can have what they want from me. I'll be out of work so will have time for interviews etc. But now is the time for me to keep riding.
There should be a short film out soon from last night. Even that meant a late start today. Today will be a strategicaly low mileage. Yesterday was pretty good in good conditions but the wind is going to make things tricky today.
Even that short film took a lot of work. My going away for the weekend stuffed up the original plans but I had to do it to get the best mileage I could.
Travelodging seems to be better than hosting. It opens up my options a lot more so I can use the best roads for the wind conditions rather than have to do loops into headwinds etc
Mileage 20 miles up on last week and those 20 miles were done with 20 minutes more riding time, so must be getting faster too, though the last 2 days were very good conditions.
Current aim is to build up on what I am doing I expect it to happen very slowly.
Still have the post PBP lurking in the background too so I still need to be a bit carefull.
Yes, quite a few of us could step up and help but that can't happen unless Steve or his crew actually communicate and maybe even ask for some assistance. I don't see that happening, as it stands.
1. Steve is doing what Steve wants to do.Lovely post, Basil.
2. Steve is not Kurt. He is STEVE
3. I bet that some mornings Steve doesn't even know himself exactly what the plan of the day is.
1. Not for us or anyone else.
2. And we love him
3. As an ex random anarchic tourer I totally understand this. Who needs pressure? Adaptability is the name of the game.
In Steve we trust.
GO STEVE.
Indeed, 365 days for the HAM'R, although, as Citizen Fish no doubt can confirm, I believe for some of the historical records that were achieved in leap years (Authur Humbles, 1932; Walter Greaves, 1936), the full 366 days of the leap year were counted. However, in both cases, the riders started a few days late in January, so in fact both rode for fewer than 365 days.
An amusing account of Walter Greaves.
http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/features/?id=2006/woodland_greaves
For those of us following on a daily basis, it is largely our main form of update. Can anyone explain why YACF is looked down upon by some of the team?
Ooooh! Congratulations to CitizenFish. Looking forward to reading this
For those of us following on a daily basis, it is largely our main form of update. Can anyone explain why YACF is looked down upon by some of the team?
It isn't.
Not often I order a book without a nosey first, but on this occasion I have taken a blind punt. Ordered yesterday. Postman awaited!
Not often I order a book without a nosey first, but on this occasion I have taken a blind punt. Ordered yesterday. Postman awaited!
On Amazon it says:Only 6 left in stock - Order soon
Only 2 left in stock - Order soon
"Current thoughts on the record attempt?"
I rode exactly 'one Godwin' yesterday, I simply cannot believe that Steve & Kurt do that & more EVERY DAY. I'm knackered today, it's easy to forget how far that actually is to ride - I take my hat off to them both, it's amazing. Keep going Steve and Kurt :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Ooooh! Congratulations to CitizenFish. Looking forward to reading this...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRiUGQ0WUAAmNlS.jpg)
Ooooh! Congratulations to CitizenFish. Looking forward to reading this...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRiUGQ0WUAAmNlS.jpg)
How exciting. Congrats
Yay!
My "The Year" book arrived too.
Look forward to some cosy reading and a revised 2nd edition in 2016.
Thanks Citizenfish. :thumbsup:
As I pointed out back in February, using his home as a base, map out a couple of 40 mile loops, ride, home, eat and repeat.
Steve and his team need to think hard about what works for Steve and work from that and remember what record they are trying to break. FFS you are not trying to break the Tommy Godwin record - you are breaking the highest annual milage record which is recognised as being held by Tommy.
And how did Day2 of this plan work out for you?QuoteAs I pointed out back in February, using his home as a base, map out a couple of 40 mile loops, ride, home, eat and repeat.
i did my first 300 buy linking together 3x100km loops that centred on my house, don't think i was ever further than 50km from home, a lot mentally easier than being 200km from home in bad weather
With all this good advice we are dispensing (11 months and 4 days since he started and several years after he started planning it), surely the record's now in the bag for Steve.
Lots of pessimism around at the moment, understandably given the recent problems Steve has faced. However it's worth remembering that nearly a year ago Steve faced the challenge of riding at around 206 miles per day for 12 months top and tailed by winter weather. Today he faces the challenge of 8 months of riding at around 209 miles per day with a month's less of winter and a summer finish with the chance of some long days of big miles. It's also worth remembering that he is running roughly the same deficit as Kurt was at this same point, 4 months into his challenge (around 750 miles below Godwin pace).
Even better places would be the fast time trial courses up and down the (eastern side of the) country. Not so many tows off passing riders but a lot more from HGVs and coaches! They may not be much fun at busy times but they are not always busy.
Even better places would be the fast time trial courses up and down the (eastern side of the) country. Not so many tows off passing riders but a lot more from HGVs and coaches! They may not be much fun at busy times but they are not always busy.Catch 22, though: not much of a draft when it's not busy; grim and a little bit scary when it is. Trogging up and down a DC at 14mph on your own, when you're
IMO this talk of Steve's 2nd attempt being on the rocks is a bit premature, his average since August can easily be caught up if he puts in the sort of mileages he did after recovery from his ankle;
But it's looking extremely unlikely he will beat Tommy's record, Kurt will do that
Sadly (and I mean that) I don't think Steve will get / hold the record. Nor will anyone attempting it in the UK. There are far easier (for certain values of "easy") places in the world to do the sort of mileages necessary. The UK is too crowded, too trafficed and too hilly.
I haven't experienced the Melbourne climate, but I think it can change very dramatically from day to day. I spoke to my daughter there one day last month and on the day in question it was as warm in Essex (17°) as it was in Melbourne. The previous day the temperature reached 34°C. That unpredictability must bring with it its own problems.
Great posting C E T thanks
If Steve can start and continue with the 'positive gradient' asap, doing a Godwin +7miles/day, he'd back at the WR line by end of March-ish (I think). Even if the line was reached by beginning of May, he'd have three summer months to have Kurt S's new total (assuming etc...) in his sights. OYTT is just such a monumental task!
Go Steve.
a trip to Florida would answer some of the questions about the effects of weather on the attempt.
The question then arises as to how to emphasise that it's not the end of the story, with Steve still riding for more than half a year.
I'm pleased to see that the mileage graph seems to show a point of inflection a few days back, that is, downward trend is now slowing. Hopefully this means that it won't be too long before Steve will be averaging enough miles a day to begin catching up some of the lost ground.
At the moment Steve gives the impression of someone drowning not waving.To be fair, his last few social media posts [that I've seen] have been really upbeat. even when he only rides 140ish miles!
If I was in the same situation, I'd find riding alone a very lonely place given the way things have turned out since the last fortnight of November. My inner voice would be getting right on my tits.
Hopefully his support team and his close network are giving him an opportunity to discuss all options and providing a sounding board.
A couple of policemen stop Steve for a chat about the dangers of dual-carriageways and cyclists.
What’s wrong with that?
Start moaning when the police show they are not concerned about the safety of cyclists.
All those cyclists who have never been approached by a policeman advising a ‘safer’ route, clearly haven’t the same mettle as Steve Abrams.
( A46 Warwick by-pass en route between Stratford on Avon and Measham during a 300km Midmesh )
A couple of policemen stop Steve for a chat about the dangers of dual-carriageways and cyclists.
What’s wrong with that?
I'm well aware of the potential dangers of riding a bike on a dual carriageway and make the decision to ride on said road after taking this into account. I don't need a copper telling me what for.
A couple of policemen stop Steve for a chat about the dangers of dual-carriageways and cyclists.
What’s wrong with that?
How about that it's indicative that the police don't know the law.
They didn't arrest him, or caution him. They knew the law. He was on a horrid bit of road with plenty of alternatives that might be considered safer. Perhaps they were trying to be helpful?
Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Current thoughts on the record attempt?
Random stops by well-meaning police are unlikely to case a statistically significant loss of mileage.
Current thoughts on the record attempt?
The reason why policemen stop and talk to cyclists on fast dual carriageways is because if they didn’t, after observing the cyclist and the cyclist is killed, the policeman would be held negligent of doing his duty.
The incident will be recorded in the officer's report. "The cyclist was advised against riding on the A47".
Is it every policeman’s duty to protect the citizen? Or at least advise on ‘safer’ routes for cyclists. Does the ‘To protect and to serve’ motto apply in the UK?
In a similar manner, an AUK Organiser will advise the riders not to use the A47 dual carriageway. Some newbie Auks will think “I don’t need an AUK Org telling me what for.”
Current thoughts on the record attempt?
I find it very hard to find anything positive in recent progress.
Pity funds are tight and Steve can't fly to better weather.
I find it very hard to find anything positive in recent progress.
Searvogel is as haunted by the wind as any sailor. He tracks it obsessively on the website WindFinder.com, charting his course around prevailing patterns. Like a game of geophysical chess, it is about not simply that day’s winds but also the next. “You’ve got to know what’s going to happen tomorrow,” he told me. “If you ride yourself into a corner, the next day’s going to be hell. It’s probably about 5:30 or 6 p.m. before we know where we’ll be tomorrow.”
But Searvogel knew this morning’s inconvenience would only be temporary. “You always want to hit the easy button,” he says. A mileage record is a mileage record: there is no added distinction for feet climbed, watts burned, state lines crossed. Once we reached land’s end in Door County, we would turn around and catch a great big southerly express train of atmospheric disturbance projected for later that morning that would take us all the way down near Madison. “Tomorrow’s probably going to be a 250-mile day,” were his last words the night before, which rang in my ears like a threat.
My understanding is that Marcus is very close to the mark. I think Steve has forgotten that the majority of Tommy's attempt had a accompanying car with a dedicated person carrying extra clothes and handing up food and drinks along the road. That assistance alone is worth tens of miles per day. Kurt has certainly found that sort of assistance very helpful.
My understanding is that Marcus is very close to the mark. I think Steve has forgotten that the majority of Tommy's attempt had a accompanying car with a dedicated person carrying extra clothes and handing up food and drinks along the road. That assistance alone is worth tens of miles per day. Kurt has certainly found that sort of assistance very helpful.
Godwin had only 5 months by my reckoning, May - August
All that matters is that Steve comes out of the winter period with an achievable target still in sight.
but remember also that the daily figures as logged on Strava are for 24 hour periods sliced at midnight.
^^^ Thus far it has been rather mild but it has also been rather wet (very wet) and rather windy (very windy) which can't be of great help. A few still, dry and cooler days would no doubt help. If we get a bad winter with hard frosts (ice) and snow (reducing the effective width of the road) then it will be truly grim.
Pity funds are tight and Steve can't fly to better weather.
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him.
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him. Potentially it's an advantage, as Kurt points out in this very good article.QuoteSearvogel is as haunted by the wind as any sailor. He tracks it obsessively on the website WindFinder.com, charting his course around prevailing patterns. Like a game of geophysical chess, it is about not simply that day’s winds but also the next. “You’ve got to know what’s going to happen tomorrow,” he told me. “If you ride yourself into a corner, the next day’s going to be hell. It’s probably about 5:30 or 6 p.m. before we know where we’ll be tomorrow.”
But Searvogel knew this morning’s inconvenience would only be temporary. “You always want to hit the easy button,” he says. A mileage record is a mileage record: there is no added distinction for feet climbed, watts burned, state lines crossed. Once we reached land’s end in Door County, we would turn around and catch a great big southerly express train of atmospheric disturbance projected for later that morning that would take us all the way down near Madison. “Tomorrow’s probably going to be a 250-mile day,” were his last words the night before, which rang in my ears like a threat.
http://www.outsideonline.com/2039276/hello-i-must-be-going
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him.
Which aspect of his strategy?
So your answer to my question seems to be:Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him.
Which aspect of his strategy?
He's not really interested in "help". I'd be really surprised if the recent call for lifts into the wind came from Steve; he want's to do it with as little outside help as possible. It's an approach, far be it from us to criticise if that's how he wants to play it, but IMHO it's very high risk, and recent history is showing just how difficult an approach it is.
Kurt found (or already knew!) what would work - 12 hours of evens, then 12 hours rest; but most important of all, Alecia! Early evening, they decide where to ride next day based on the wind forecast, she drives them both to the agreed start, he rests.
I have no idea of the day to day decision making process of Steve's team (or if there is in fact, any "team" at all?).
That's not really "strategy". If you don't have a resource, you can't choose not to use it!
He has been offered 24 hr help several times, most recently myself from 25 Dec to 01 Jan inclusive.No offence, but I'd prefer an Alicia for Christmas.
He's not really interested in "help". I'd be really surprised if the recent call for lifts into the wind came from Steve; he want's to do it with as little outside help as possible. It's an approach, far be it from us to criticise if that's how he wants to play it, but IMHO it's very high risk, and recent history is showing just how difficult an approach it is.
I wouldn't rule out the over-compensation pattern you suggest, but remember also that the daily figures as logged on Strava are for 24 hour periods sliced at midnight. So a later ride can look like an under-achieving day followed by an over-achieving one that contains the tail end of the previous late night finish (this wouldn't apply if he was consistently riding at the same times of day, but we have seen some fluctuation in start and end times).
It might be inappropriate for me to come into this current thread as an ex team member -- and the thinking may have changed a little or even a lot over the last 3 months -- but my pennorth is as follows.
Excellent and detailed posting. Thank you for compiling and sharing with us and for your enormous help managing and setting up the Financial side of things. It is reassuring to read that the funds are all in place for Steve to continue riding the challenge 'his way'. :thumbsup:Call me a Jeremiah and all, but I think precisely the opposite: had I contributed financially to Steve's team's effort I would be expecting them to be working cohesively in an attempt to extract the very best performance possible. Steve's ideals bear little resemblance to the way that Godwin attempted the record (motorised assistance for 5 months!), and bear virtually no resemblance to the record-holder-in-waiting's MO (a tight, communicative partnership exploiting whatever benefits they can extract.) The one boundary that I, personally, would have reservations about crossing is that of the recumbent (ironically, though, Steve did that too!).
Just to put you all right.Well that settles that!
I will take whatever advantage I can.
I am not doing most of what is suggested because I don't think they will work and some could potentially be very damaging.
No ideas are new and all have been considered.
Motor transfers will most likely happen.
Keep zee dosh rolling in from diys /eces mart-in most welcome :
Just to put you all right.
I will take whatever advantage I can.
I am not doing most of what is suggested because I don't think they will work and some could potentially be very damaging.
No ideas are new and all have been considered.
Motor transfers will most likely happen.
I will take whatever advantage I can.
I've made offers via a current team member...sound of crickets followed
Too clever for me -- crickets chirp ... but that does not seem relevant.
Too clever for me -- crickets chirp ... but that does not seem relevant.
I thought Australia lost the crickets?
Steve, if you ever need help, whether mechanical, food, or lodgings, and you are between Cambridge and MK, as you often are, feel free to give me a shout and I'll help if I can. I did email the team a while back but had no answer, so am happy to repeat here if it might help.
"Excuse me while I suck your blood,
excuse me when I phone you,
I've got every one of your records, man,
doesn't that mean I own you?"
Oh, sure, I long ago decided to make myself an exponent
of public possession in the private obsession zone.
But now I'm serious, let's be serious,
I'm not selling you my soul,
try to put it in the records
but I've got to keep my life my own.
One thing I've not got a lot of is time
and it's slipping away...
I've got a life to live too.
Ah, here they come...
Vampires!
See where you're coming from on that one, but with the mudguards, I'd think that time spent removing and refitting mudguards to suit the weather would be better spent accumulating miles, as I'm not sure you'd make that time back.
See where you're coming from on that one, but with the mudguards, I'd think that time spent removing and refitting mudguards to suit the weather would be better spent accumulating miles, as I'm not sure you'd make that time back.
If we're going to argue about mudguards (and why not, we've debated everything else), how about "mudguards don't actually slow you down, other than by adding weight to the bike"?
To the best of my knowledge there has NEVER been any team thought put into how best to maximise Steve's mileage over a time frame of any length -- whether that be 1, 2, 7, 31, or 365 days. Thought would require covering many strands -- bikes, nutrition, support,clothing , routes, geography etc etc etc.. Total reliance was placed on Steves original assumption that he could beat Tommy by several thousand miles.. result .. this belief accepted as fact .. therefore no need to consider how best to tackle the challenge. Whereas I would suggest that Steve is at his limit to beat Tommy / Kurt and therefore needs to take advantage of every tiny gain possible -- Brailsford -- marginal gains matter
If we're going to argue about mudguards (and why not, we've debated everything else), how about "mudguards don't actually slow you down, other than by adding weight to the bike"?
They can't possibly be any good for the aerodynamics basically acting like a funnel/baffle to the air you're cycling into. Therefore increasing the air resistance and thus the power required to go at the same speed without.
If we're going to argue about mudguards (and why not, we've debated everything else), how about "mudguards don't actually slow you down, other than by adding weight to the bike"?
They can't possibly be any good for the aerodynamics basically acting like a funnel/baffle to the air you're cycling into. Therefore increasing the air resistance and thus the power required to go at the same speed without.
https://janheine.wordpress.com/2012/05/02/aerodynamics-of-real-world-bicycles/
Indeed. But it's clearly not as simple as "can't possibly be any good for the aerodynamics".
Anyway, it's a marginal gain. You worry about mudguards after you've gone recumbent.
Meanwhile, the absence of mudguards could lead to illness, saddle sores or just general misery, which are much bigger problems than a marginal detriment to aerodynamics. I'd want them any time outside the typical two weeks of British 'summer' when it's dry enough that you can reasonably expect there not to be puddles of field run-off.
As with vehicle transfers and so on, I think it's mostly a case of Steve knowing what works, and having been too busy getting on with it to explore other possibilities that might help some of the time.
I'm not convinced that Steve knows what works. I've helped him on three 24s after it taking 8 plus years to persuade him that help would be useful as would gears and fast wheels. Steve admitted that yes, all of these allowed him to go further once he tried them.
In Steve's defence I'd say that right now his brain is so fuzzy with miles the ability to think things through is not particularly brilliant. He needs someone with the right knowledge to think the issues through for him, then work with him to come up with something that Steve has confidence in and is going to make a difference.
Crossing the A41 near Blackthorn can be a right pig.
Ideally a loop would only have left turns so that you can keep left always and never need to come towards the centre of the road or cross oncoming traffc.
15,000 loops of the same route sounds a tad dull. :oer ... yes.
If Steve wants an adventure that is one thing but he has signed up to beat the record. That is the objective, not going out and having a good time.So I guess you don't see the mental side as important?
If Steve wants an adventure that is one thing but he has signed up to beat the record. That is the objective, not going out and having a good time.
This will be like the hare and the tortoise." I think were the words he used.
Obviously Steve doesn't see the mental side important enough to want to have company on his rides...If Steve wants an adventure that is one thing but he has signed up to beat the record. That is the objective, not going out and having a good time.So I guess you don't see the mental side as important?
We shall have to disagree on this.
...and this particular hare ain't having no nap.This will be like the hare and the tortoise." I think were the words he used.That's the problem. There aren't enough hours in the day for the tortoise approach unfortunately, that that's been clear from early on.
If Steve wants an adventure that is one thing but he has signed up to beat the record. That is the objective, not going out and having a good time.So I guess you don't see the mental side as important?
We shall have to disagree on this.
I was beginning to find this thread depressing reading ...
but then LMT offers lessons for Steve in mental toughness.
Brilliant! ;D :thumbsup:
What an odd thing to write; are you saying your posts are ambiguous?I was beginning to find this thread depressing reading ...
but then LMT offers lessons for Steve in mental toughness.
Brilliant! ;D :thumbsup:
Was not offering Steve anything, you'll do well not to misinterpret my words.
And nor is the hare close to tiring.
Who needs experienced people?!!I would have full time camper van...
I'd.... invite experienced people to come and draft me
I was beginning to find this thread depressing reading ...
but then LMT offers lessons for Steve in mental toughness.
Brilliant! ;D :thumbsup:
Was not offering Steve anything, you'll do well not to misinterpret my words. You think Kurt enjoyed doing those loops a couple of months ago in Arkansas? Or was it the fact that he knew what the craic was and just got on with it - that's the type of mental toughness I'm referring to. I'm sorry to say but simply riding your bike won't get you this record. And if it is true what I've read from past members of his team that no thought has been given the most efficient way of churning out the miles then this is staggeringly arrogant - and it's rather sad to see but he is currently paying the price. I'd gladly be prove wrong of course...
I'm beginning to think that the record needs to be split a bit like the hour record did a few years ago....UMCA have split it, into age categories. Steve will hold the 40 - 50 yo record for his >60k miles. I suspect that that will remain a record for someone who broke an ankle part-way through for the duration of human history. Even Kurt hasn't managed that, the big girl's blouse. :P
One based on a pure Godwin effort like Steve is doing and a Kurt record which is assisted, car transfers etc. Comparing Steve and Kurt is comparing apples and pears, it's not like for like.
I'm beginning to think that the record needs to be split a bit like the hour record did a few years ago....
One based on a pure Godwin effort like Steve is doing and a Kurt record which is assisted, car transfers etc. Comparing Steve and Kurt is comparing apples and pears, it's not like for like.
Meanwhile, the absence of mudguards could lead to illness, saddle sores or just general misery, which are much bigger problems than a marginal detriment to aerodynamics. I'd want them any time outside the typical two weeks of British 'summer' when it's dry enough that you can reasonably expect there not to be puddles of field run-off.
As with vehicle transfers and so on, I think it's mostly a case of Steve knowing what works, and having been too busy getting on with it to explore other possibilities that might help some of the time.
I read the 'advice' as simply a bunch of concerned supporters of Steve seeing his incredible efforts losing their way a bit and desperately offering suggestions that might help him get back on track. I don't think anyone's suggesting they know better than him how to do this, but they can see that it's not going the way it needs to if he's to succeed in his quest to beat Tommy. If it ends up that he doesn't make it, no-one would ever suggest that it wasn't for lack of trying - but we'd all prefer that he does make it!
Perhaps it doesn't help that Kurt is riding at the same time and, for a number of reasons - not least slightly better luck - he's likely to succeed, so, naturally, people will urge Steve to adopt some of the techniques that have worked for Kurt. They may be inappropriate, impossible, or just not right for Steve, but they aren't suggested in a spirit of 'knowing better', simply looking for anything that might help.
There's no-one here that wishes anything but the best for Steve, I'm quite sure of that.
In chess, we call them kibitzers*.
<snip>
*terms introduced by Bobby Fischer
In chess, we call them kibitzers*.
<snip>
*terms introduced by Bobby Fischer
<wildly OT>
I think kibitzer predates Bobby Fischer. I first encountered "kibitz" in Moonraker, where it was used in relation to working out what cards an opponent had and Wikipedia tells me Moonraker was published in 1955, when Bobby Fischer was 12. Of course he may well have been responsible for bringing the term to chess.
</wildly OT>
Current thoughts on the record attempt? Well, both Steve and Kurt have proved themselves worthy contenders. I don't think I am in a position to give advice to either of them, despite being able to ride a bike. What is needed is as far from my experience and understanding as racing up the Tourmalet with the pro peleton and as useful as telling Sagan he needs to turn his pedals faster to win (even if it is factually correct). I'm constantly impressed by the the quality of advice and experience that, if only Steve would adopt, he would be doing better.
That's the problem. There aren't enough hours in the day for the tortoise approach unfortunately, and that's been clear from early on.To me its become apparent that this is a "racers" record. Tommy and now Kurt are Elite level athletes who can ride fast enough to get the required recovery to do it again and again, what ever the location.
Kurt has learned as he has gone along, fixed / upgraded his equipment, fine-tuned his approach and adapted to changes in circumstances.whereas...
Kurt has learned as he has gone along, fixed / upgraded his equipment, fine-tuned his approach and adapted to changes in circumstances.whereas...
Kurt has learned as he has gone along, fixed / upgraded his equipment, fine-tuned his approach and adapted to changes in circumstances.whereas...
As I said a few pages back, Steve's options are much more limited that Kurt's because his average speed is about 4mph slower. That's 48 miles over a 12 hour day.
In chess, we call them kibitzers*.
<snip>
*terms introduced by Bobby Fischer
<wildly OT>
I think kibitzer predates Bobby Fischer. I first encountered "kibitz" in Moonraker, where it was used in relation to working out what cards an opponent had and Wikipedia tells me Moonraker was published in 1955, when Bobby Fischer was 12. Of course he may well have been responsible for bringing the term to chess.
</wildly OT>
I have to say that, for me, the record should be done as one continuous bike ride. You start the day from where you finished the previous evening.I'm slowly coming round to the same thinking.
Once you start driving between starting locations you open this up to Team SKY using a luxurious tour bus to drive you repeatedly South West overnight, or to wherever the prevailing winds are blowing from. Taken to its logical extreme you can start flying your rider to the flattest roads with the strongest tailwinds.
At some point it becomes similar to swimming the English Channel in a heated swimming pool.
I foresee various categories of the record emerging, just like Everest Ascents (Everest with oxygen, without oxygen, not carrying a piano, carrying a piano..etc).
HK and I supported Steve through multiple 24hr TTs but it took years of arguments to get him to take advantage of our support (and finally admit that it made a big difference). Some of us do know what we are talking about and Steve, like most folk, can be wrong, even with regards to riding megamiles.
I am astonished and in awe of the miles Steve has done with his current approach over the space of the last year, but also convinced Kurt has the best approach - the results of each method are there for everyone to see. There is no logistical or financial reason why Steve could not follow Kurts approach from the last couple of months.
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.
It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.
It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A
I am astonished and in awe of the miles Steve has done with his current approach over the space of the last year, but also convinced Kurt has the best approach - the results of each method are there for everyone to see. There is no logistical or financial reason why Steve could not follow Kurts approach from the last couple of months.
What, apart from
the lack of an RV and a 365x24 support team?
(sorry about that - but the font-size seems proportionate to the number of posters ignoring this simple fact :P
TheRedEyeJedi,
Not having intimate knowledge of Steve's finances, I don't think we can comment fairly either way. Would you like to contribute to pay for a full time driver and an RV to support Steve on his way?
I don't see why you need to be so aggressive in your assertions.
Steve and Kurt have different approaches, neither is right nor wrong, just different.
"much" ? Are we following the same Kurt? :-\
Kurt has one vehicle and one assistant - and at the moment he isnt really using them much.
"much" ? Are we following the same Kurt? :-\
Kurt has one vehicle and one assistant - and at the moment he isnt really using them much.
You admit you have no idea the cost of an RV+driver; and no idea of Steve's budget. I'd say that without these 2 basic facts you are firmly in the Kibitzer camp.(don't worry- it is a camp with many residents, many sharing your views and knowldege of riding 70,000 miles a year!)
Kurt has learned as he has gone along, fixed / upgraded his equipment, fine-tuned his approach and adapted to changes in circumstances.whereas...
As I said a few pages back, Steve's options are much more limited that Kurt's because his average speed is about 4mph slower. That's 48 miles over a 12 hour day.
If Steve's current plan was working there wouldn't be any questioning. It appears not to be working, so it would be pretty amazing if there weren't any questions being asked or suggestions put forward, particularly as his effort is being partly crowd-funded by folks here. No need for any unpleasantness from either side.
TheRedEyeJedi,
Not having intimate knowledge of Steve's finances, I don't think we can comment fairly either way. Would you like to contribute to pay for a full time driver and an RV to support Steve on his way?
I don't see why you need to be so aggressive in your assertions.
Steve and Kurt have different approaches, neither is right nor wrong, just different.
Steves approach so far has not worked for any length of time - and when he has tried harder he has become ill. I find this assumption that Kurt has had advantages or logistical advances that are beyond Steve to be a little strange. Steve has this record in him - we can all see this - he is just making it too hard for himself in my opinion. I respect that, but the record is set in stone and respect doesnt play a part in breaking it. Godwin didnt have it as hard as Steve is making it for himself.
Kurt has one vehicle and one assistant - and at the moment he isnt really using them much.
How much would it really cost to hire a support vehicle and employ various drivers for the year - we are told there is enough funding for an overseas base if needed/wanted ... It would seem the money is there. I am pretty sure if more money had of been asked for it would have been given? Even if that approach was taken for a quarter of the year it could have had a huge impact.
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.
It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A
I love the way the cameraman's car is just randomly parked in most scenes with vehicles swerving around it. Some pretty bad driving in a few of those scenes too.
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.
It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A
I'm beginning to think that the record needs to be split a bit like the hour record did a few years ago....
One based on a pure Godwin effort like Steve is doing and a Kurt record which is assisted, car transfers etc. Comparing Steve and Kurt is comparing apples and pears, it's not like for like.
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then. Quite apart from having dedicated support for his highest mileage months.
It's possible to see what the A1 looked like in August 1939, this film's overcranked, there are longer versions available, at the correct speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_D0tR9mAV8A
I love the way the cameraman's car is just randomly parked in most scenes with vehicles swerving around it. Some pretty bad driving in a few of those scenes too.
Godwins' peak mileage was done on roads like that, as a series of 50 mile team time trials, for 16 hours a day throughout the summer.
I'm beginning to think that the record needs to be split a bit like the hour record did a few years ago....
One based on a pure Godwin effort like Steve is doing and a Kurt record which is assisted, car transfers etc. Comparing Steve and Kurt is comparing apples and pears, it's not like for like.
The trouble with doing that is that you'd end up with so many different variations of the record that any entrant could be all but guaranteed to become a record holder by registering a slight variation on the theme. What happens if someone decides to ride 28,000 laps of a 3-mile circuit in a year, would that be a different record?
How closely do you think the two riders should match in their efforts? In the US you can ride for 100 miles without stopping at all; in the UK that sort of thing isn't going to happen. In the US you get far greater temperature variations than in the UK. Ultimately both men have taken on a huge challenge and achieved something that frankly boggles my mind. Even if there were only one record (and from what people say it sounds like there are multiple records based on age), there's no shame for either man if they come second.
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then.
Tommy could cruise up and down the A1, if he wanted, and lorries travelled at a suitable drafting pace back then.
Are there reports of him drafting lorries up and down the A1 for any length of time? I've not read the book, but if that is the case, then his achievement is all the more astounding to me, because emissions and air quality behind a wagon in 1939 must have been horrible.
This wee clip reminds me of the days when I could do the 27 mls from office to home in 39 mins way back yonder.If you were drafting, I can believe it.
Yup. At 40mph, two feet off the back of a double decker bus on a flat road I find myself spending more time on the brakes than the pedals.This wee clip reminds me of the days when I could do the 27 mls from office to home in 39 mins way back yonder.If you were drafting, I can believe it.
I've managed to get tucked in behind a tractor on the A64 a few times. The hardest bit has been avoiding running into the tractor on the downhills, even a very very slight downhill would be enough to take my speed up above 25mph. I'm as unathletic as they come and in those conditions I could maintain 25mph average and scarcely break a sweat.
I've managed to get tucked in behind a tractor on the A64 a few times. The hardest bit has been avoiding running into the tractor on the downhills, even a very very slight downhill would be enough to take my speed up above 25mph. I'm as unathletic as they come and in those conditions I could maintain 25mph average and scarcely break a sweat.
I think a few thread contributors might be interested to look at Steve's live tracker for today...
http://audaxclubhackney.co.uk/tg.html
What is the length and profile of MK bowl like? Is it open 24/7?
What is the length and profile of MK bowl like? Is it open 24/7?
It's 1km long with a 10 metre rise, IIRC. So substantially hillier than what he usually rides.
I think he has to make special arrangements for access. It's not something you can just turn up to and ride (or turn up to and shout encouragement).
Example: https://www.strava.com/activities/287914171I guess the tide was going out on that one.
Steve needs to hire this (http://www.amusingplanet.com/2014/07/nardo-ring-porsches-high-speed-test.html) for a year :)
Millbrook oval is only just over an hour's ride from Steve :demon:
Steve needs to hire this (http://www.amusingplanet.com/2014/07/nardo-ring-porsches-high-speed-test.html) for a year :)
Millbrook oval is only just over an hour's ride from Steve :demon:
Unfortunately "Other prohibited items include ... pedal bikes and animals." ;)
Steve needs to hire this (http://www.amusingplanet.com/2014/07/nardo-ring-porsches-high-speed-test.html) for a year :)
Millbrook oval is only just over an hour's ride from Steve :demon:
I've never believed in Christmas miracles, but by golly I hope Santa delivers Steve some whatever it is he needs to get back up to full strength over the festive period.
There's been a good response to this.
youtube link (https://youtu.be/85fQYevbt5c)
There's been a good response to this.
youtube link (https://youtu.be/85fQYevbt5c)
There must be something going on which we are not aware of; why the secrecy? If Steve is following any of this chatter, not sure when he finds time to, he could make it all a bit more positive by letting supporters know what he's thinking, doing and planning. When I say he I mean one of the Team, if there still is a Team?
It strikes me that it's about trying to ride as far as possible on a bike.
It strikes me that it's about trying to ride as far as possible on a bike.
If that was the case no-one would be projecting values such as purity onto the event. The quality of the suffering seems to occupy a lot of the posts.
It strikes me that it's about trying to ride as far as possible on a bike.
If that was the case no-one would be projecting values such as purity onto the event. The quality of the suffering seems to occupy a lot of the posts.
Another interesting aspect of the final phase of Kurt's ride is the way that those who like to associate themselves with success have aligned themselves with him. I think of those who were denouncing him as 'UMCA's Golden Boy' earlier in the year, and were calling for his disqualification. Now they're toasting him with fine malt whisky.
We're not trying to ride as far as possible on a bike, just wanking about on the internet.
ETA: Change of plan. Going for a bike ride.
It strikes me that the One Year Time Trial is about redemption. Middle-aged men submitting to an ordeal to exorcise our demons. Kurt's got his relationship history and his pre-cycling chubbiness and the new challenger has alluded to struggling with depression.
Another interesting aspect of the final phase of Kurt's ride is the way that those who like to associate themselves with success have aligned themselves with him. I think of those who were denouncing him as 'UMCA's Golden Boy' earlier in the year, and were calling for his disqualification. Now they're toasting him with fine malt whisky.
I can see why Kurt and Alicia like to drop in for a laugh.
Pretty close to my opinions.
Once Steve's deficit gets big enough that he needs to exceed 220 daily miles for the rest of the attempt, the attempt is toast. He's damn close to that now.
Pretty close to my opinions.
Once Steve's deficit gets big enough that he needs to exceed 220 daily miles for the rest of the attempt, the attempt is toast. He's damn close to that now.
Re HAM'R, required mpd looks like increasing to deal with Kurt's new total in early Jan... I wonder what the projections for this mpd now would be?
If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.
If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.
At the current rate it will be above 209
If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.
At the current rate it will be above 209
Er, at the current rate the new target will be the current rate - 208.5.
If Kurt rounds up the record to 76,000, the new starter miles per day target would be 208.2.
At the current rate it will be above 209
Er, at the current rate the new target will be the current rate - 208.5.
By the current rate i meant the rate over the last few weeks, which I think is a better indicator than the whole-year average (as I think you probably knew :P).
At the current rate it will be above 209. In fact 210 isn't out of the question.
ESL, I'm raising a glass of "Suffolk Springer" in your general direction at the moment. Only a Southern Softie beer from Bury St. Edmunds, I'm afraid, but it is perfectly acceptable. Not had it before.
@LMT: at the start of the ride all one had to judge Kurt on was what looked very like a "Let's see what the other guy does and then go one better, 10 days behind". With 11 months of experience, and with Steve having had all the bad luck that he has, that is clearly not the case now, if it ever was, and has not been since April. Is it allowed to change one's opinion in the light of experience?
I think that it is fair to say that the knockers on both sides have NOT been part of either Kurt's or Steve's respective teams but simply kibitzers, or whatever the terminology is in cycling!
And, I wish those bloody persistent knockers of Steve's gargantuan efforts would bugger off and crawl under a stone too.
I think that it is fair to say that the knockers on both sides have NOT been part of either Kurt's or Steve's respective teams but simply kibitzers, or whatever the terminology is in cycling!
+1
I hope I'm completely wrong, and I know Steve occasionally gives upbeat reports but am I the only one that worries about whether or not he might be riding himself to a breakdown, desperate not to disappoint himself or his supporters? I would hate to think that the persistent GO STEVES make him feel he just can't listen to his body, if that's what he really should be doing. I, for one, would think no less of Steve if he stopped now.
Jeremiah
Let's hope the weight of expectation (his own as well as others) isn't pushing Steve to attempt more than he is able to handle, mentally and physically. I hope there someone in the team that Steve trusts that would be able to call a halt if (heaven forbid) things start looking risky?
+1I think that it is fair to say that the knockers on both sides have NOT been part of either Kurt's or Steve's respective teams but simply kibitzers, or whatever the terminology is in cycling!
And, I wish those bloody persistent knockers of Steve's gargantuan efforts would bugger off and crawl under a stone too.
+1
Do any of you think that all this negative talk doesn't have a negative effect on Steve? How is it helping him at all?
Ah, the Free Speech argument!
As long you're happy Freya ...
Nope, I didnt say that.Ah, the Free Speech argument!
As long you're happy Freya ...
Ah, so the only posts about Steve to be allowed are ones that you approve of.
In other posts I have mentioned diet and any new attempt should take a long look at this. One thing we forget is that in the 1930s food had a lot more goodness. Intensive farming has kept the calories the same, but has reduced the minerals, vitamins and trace elements. Processed food has the lowest concentration of goodness. This will not be easy to sort out and although Kurt has done a few well publicised junk food eating sessions I always thought there was some proper food being prepared every night.Think you're right.
( I cant currently be arsed with a debate about free speech here - see elsewhere, you'll find that it's been examined quite extensively! )
Thanks for that!( I cant currently be arsed with a debate about free speech here - see elsewhere, you'll find that it's been examined quite extensively! )
Your posts over the past year have consistently represented the worst aspects of any forum discussion - defensive, patronising and aggressive in equal measure. You profess to support Steve - you don't have a monopoly in that position, and your attitude is doing Steve absolutely no favours.
You profess to support Steve - you don't have a monopoly in that position, and your attitude is doing Steve absolutely no favours.
Do any of you think that all this negative talk doesn't have a negative effect on Steve? How is it helping him at all?
I would say there is a wide variety of criticism on this thread. Some of it is constructive. Some of it is stuff like this:Do any of you think that all this negative talk doesn't have a negative effect on Steve? How is it helping him at all?
it's constructive criticism. Sometimes the rider does not know best.
Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....
Do any of you think that all this negative talk doesn't have a negative effect on Steve? How is it helping him at all?
it's constructive criticism. Sometimes the rider does not know best.
Mike, this isn't a coaching manual, it's a conversation. There's no-one on here who doesn't wish Steve well, or think that he is more important than a record.
Peter
get the impression seeing how far an audax style strategy could go towards breaking the record is an important part, possibly more important than actually becoming the record holder.
Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....
Steve carries on not cos it's good strategy but cos he's an audaxer, it's just what he does - like scorpion and frog.
If he is calling it a day he might as well at least see the year out, there's only ten or so days left now, even if the chances of breaking the record are minimal.
get the impression seeing how far an audax style strategy could go towards breaking the record is an important part, possibly more important than actually becoming the record holder.
Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....
Mike, this isn't a coaching manual, it's a conversation. There's no-one on here who doesn't wish Steve well, or think that he is more important than a record.
Peter
Peter, there are one or two posting on here for whom Steve appears to matter little.
Mike, this isn't a coaching manual, it's a conversation. There's no-one on here who doesn't wish Steve well, or think that he is more important than a record.
Peter
Peter, there are one or two posting on here for whom Steve appears to matter little.
Peter,
One of your many flaws is that you inisist in seeing good in people. ;)
After spending time on the internet, it becomes clear that there are many reasons for giving advice; concern for the recipient is not always a feature.
You don't need hallucinogenics to drive yourself bonkers riding a velodrome - twenty-four hours straight will see you most of the way there.
You don't need hallucinogenics to drive yourself bonkers riding a velodrome - twenty-four hours straight will see you most of the way there.
My point exactly - you'd only even consider deliberately driving yourself bonkers if you were *already* bonkers through (possibly semi accidental) means.
Kurt's Flatwood loop is around 8 miles long. A velodrome loop is about 0.2 miles long. I don't think you can extrapolate Kurt's recent experience at Flatwood to suggest anyone could mange repeated 200 mile+ velodrome days without going completely bonkers.
Yes but surely the best* way to beat / improve the record would be to have a strategy that doesn't include ANY tough miles.
Im not sure why a fast, repetitive day, week or month of cycling is being seen as such a hard thing for a rider to cope with during this attempt.
There must be enough tough miles, out on the road by yourself to welcome the easy repetitive miles.
I would argue that a few weeks of fast, easy, no traffic miles would be a massive mental boost to any rider in an attempt like this.
Kurt's Flatwood loop is around 8 miles long. A velodrome loop is about 0.2 miles long. I don't think you can extrapolate Kurt's recent experience at Flatwood to suggest anyone could mange repeated 200 mile+ velodrome days without going completely bonkers.
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?
I've seen the very worst of Internet forums ... And this thread is a Godwin away from that! Apart from maybe one post I don't think there is anything over the top in here and for the most part it is respectful, constructive and comes with an overwhelming emphasis on Steves well being and successOf course there are respectful constructive posts - hoorah for that. :)
Meanwhile, Steve is riding a favourable wind to good effect; 80+ miles in just over 4hrs.
Unnecessary waffle as Steve is most unlikely to switch from a proper bike!
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?
nope.
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?
nope.
Yes. From the UMCA rules:
"SOLOS:
Gender: Male & Female
Age Groups: 18-49, 50-59, 60-69 and Over 70
Bicycle Type: Standard, Recumbent and HPV"
A velomobile is an HPV (Human Powered Vehicle), it just can't be compared against a std or 'bent for Championship purposes.
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?
nope.
Yes. From the UMCA rules:
"SOLOS:
Gender: Male & Female
Age Groups: 18-49, 50-59, 60-69 and Over 70
Bicycle Type: Standard, Recumbent and HPV"
A velomobile is an HPV (Human Powered Vehicle), it just can't be compared against a std or 'bent for Championship purposes.
Rider may use any bike type, or combination of bike types, except for faired recumbents. There will not be separate record categories based on bike type. (This means standard frame bikes and recumbents will be on equal basis for this record.)
Are fairings allowed under UMCA rules?
nope.
Yes. From the UMCA rules:
"SOLOS:
Gender: Male & Female
Age Groups: 18-49, 50-59, 60-69 and Over 70
Bicycle Type: Standard, Recumbent and HPV"
A velomobile is an HPV (Human Powered Vehicle), it just can't be compared against a std or 'bent for Championship purposes.
But from the HAMR rules:Quote from: UMCA
Rider may use any bike type, or combination of bike types, except for faired recumbents. There will not be separate record categories based on bike type. (This means standard frame bikes and recumbents will be on equal basis for this record.)
(My emphasis)
... borrow a WAW, rent a place in Norfolk and put in over 100000 miles for the year easy.
...
Sorry PB, but I think a WAW is fully-faired - so we'll have to give LMT the b-of-the-d on that one :P
For months I've been baffled as to why Tarzan doesnt use the recumbent for most of his mileage. He seemed to go OK in it early on, so surely there were enough miles in the year to get comfortably adapted.
There can't be any doubt that his choice of terrain/roads suit a down-wrong. Can there? :-\
Opposite of an upright.
HTH
A 'normal' bicycle.
Saddle above pedals and usually about level with handlebars.
A 'normal' bicycle.
Saddle above pedals and usually about level with handlebars.
AKA a DF (diamond-framed) bicycle.
Steve carries on not cos it's good strategy but cos he's an audaxer, it's just what he does - like scorpion and frog.
If he is calling it a day he might as well at least see the year out, there's only ten or so days left now, even if the chances of breaking the record are minimal.
Very nice Mr L, I'm thinking around the 180w mark to get upto cruising speed of around 28mph. Fully faired and a trike means any weather, ice or not. My FTP is around the 330w mark so 180w would be a recovery ride. The biggest problem would be boredom when doing the miles but I'd rig some sort of music system to keep me going.
You must think that Steves original approach was the ONLY possible way to do it -- which just has to be wrong ( and pretty stupid as an analysis too ) . Historically he would never have accepted a vehicle transfer -- but now realising that this could increase his mileage - he is very likely to do it.. personally I think this has been because people have been banging on about possible help and NOT because Steve of his own accord suddenly saw the wisdom of this idea. There are other suggestions being put forward ( not all of which might be valid as improvements ) .. but they should all be considered by the team -- and the sensible ones run past Steve to get his reaction. Nothing should be forced on him -- it has to be his decision -- but a closed mind will not get him the record.. just look at the riding record -- he has never strung together to a run of excellent days -- and in the summer was huge distances short of what he had originally said he could do.
Your rather nasty comment about sad people -- would suggest that since there have been only 3 , 4 or 5 people ( IronOx ?) attempting this challenge in the last 75 years -- that they are the only people who could possibly have any constructive ideas on how to tackle the challenge, and this is clearly barking mad.
You are defintely not one of the sad people.
Quietly without fanfare, yesterday, Steve passed René Menzies' 1937 record – with ten days yet to ride. Sometimes it's good to be reminded what Steve has achieved so far even when things don't go exactly as planned.Indeed! :thumbsup:
I can't see Steve stopping at any point before August myself
Your rather nasty comment about sad people -- would suggest that since there have been only 3 , 4 or 5 people ( IronOx ?) attempting this challenge in the last 75 years -- that they are the only people who could possibly have any constructive ideas on how to tackle the challenge, and this is clearly barking mad.
the DF is considered to be quicker now. Daniel Fenn (the builder) rode from Berlin to Hamburg at an average of 51km/h a few months ago.Very nice Mr L, I'm thinking around the 180w mark to get upto cruising speed of around 28mph. Fully faired and a trike means any weather, ice or not. My FTP is around the 330w mark so 180w would be a recovery ride. The biggest problem would be boredom when doing the miles but I'd rig some sort of music system to keep me going.
My grate frend Mr Bird is currently building a racing f/f recumbent trike which he reckons will give him 26-27 mph at 130W, though it's not intended for all-day habitation like a pukka velomobile. The Milan seems to be the current state of the art as far as record-breaking goes with a 12H record of >420 miles and over 750 miles in 24H. Which is by the by coz it's against the HAMR rules anyway. I'm sure if one asked the WHPVA and/or IHPVA nicely they'd sanction a record under similar rules of evidence as UMCA are doing for HAMR.
Your rather nasty comment about sad people -- would suggest that since there have been only 3 , 4 or 5 people ( IronOx ?) attempting this challenge in the last 75 years -- that they are the only people who could possibly have any constructive ideas on how to tackle the challenge, and this is clearly barking mad.
There are other people who take on the Year challenge. Unlike the HAMR participants they usually have full time jobs.
AUKs very own late Pat Kenny rode 30,000 miles and did his full time job as a civil engineer plus occasionally saw his wife and two daughters. There is a current AUK who regularly rides 20,000 miles plus around the day job. You won't probably heard of these people just to name a few as what they do is only found within 300,000 miles club.
So, there is a small group of cyclist who do know how to ride a year.
You could probably draw some sort of Venn diagram showing how the three main 'constituencies' interested in Steve's ride interacted over time. Those constituencies being his core team, YACF and Strava/Facebook.
I now question if its worth continuing to donate to the cause, nothing to do with if the record is broken or not, just from the point of view of feeling that the support given is not valued. After all it can't be too much effort to put out a news letter once a week to help keep Steve's fan club on the edge our seats.
In 34 pages of posts I can only see a single one that could possibly be construed as having a dig at Steve (gleefully quoted by mattC). It's pretty apparent that everyone here is not only captivated by the challenge but also wants the best for Steve."gleefully" ??
In addition to stepping up to one of the upper plinths on the pantheon of the 20th century records attempts, it's perhaps worth remembering that Steve will be recorded by HAM'R as the record holder at close of play 31 December, and will hold his age-group record for at least a year.
Not bad for a humble bloke from Bedfordshire, who likes to ride his bike.
You could probably draw some sort of Venn diagram showing how the three main 'constituencies' interested in Steve's ride interacted over time. Those constituencies being his core team, YACF and Strava/Facebook.
In terms of purely financial support, there is also an option to make a one off £1 donation when entering any AUK calendar event via PayPal. So there is potentially quite a large body of silent supporters out there who've made small one-off contributions: I know I'm among them.
...Not sure I see a problem. Its a bit like having a Comic Relief bucket at the supermarket tills.Quotethere is also an option to make a one off £1 donation when entering any AUK calendar event via PayPal. So there is potentially quite a large body of silent supporters out there who've made small one-off contributions....
PS. It's optional of course but it's always seemed a bit odd to me for the organisation to ask for money for something like this. Individual and corporate sponsorship is a bit different to this IMO.
...Not sure I see a problem. Its a bit like having a Comic Relief bucket at the supermarket tills.Quotethere is also an option to make a one off £1 donation when entering any AUK calendar event via PayPal. So there is potentially quite a large body of silent supporters out there who've made small one-off contributions....
PS. It's optional of course but it's always seemed a bit odd to me for the organisation to ask for money for something like this. Individual and corporate sponsorship is a bit different to this IMO.
... I wouldn't mind at all being one of a group who take on the duties of driver/cook if a camper van were part of Steve's plans.
I now question if its worth continuing to donate to the cause, nothing to do with if the record is broken or not, just from the point of view of feeling that the support given is not valued. After all it can't be too much effort to put out a news letter once a week to help keep Steve's fan club on the edge our seats.
Either you are donating to help Steve in his attempt to break the record, or you feel you've paid for regular updates as a form of entertainment. Arguably you could have both, but without a slightly slicker PR operation this may be tricky for Steve & Co to arrange. Personally I am not a regular direct debit supporter and have no expectations of regular news updates, however I might suggest that those who do have such expectations need to rein them in a bit. Yes, we are in the era of instantaneous updates, immediate gratification, soshul meedja and all that. Maybe though folk ought to cut Steve and his immediate support crew some slack: they presumably have their hands full as it is...
I now question if its worth continuing to donate to the cause, nothing to do with if the record is broken or not, just from the point of view of feeling that the support given is not valued. After all it can't be too much effort to put out a news letter once a week to help keep Steve's fan club on the edge our seats.
Either you are donating to help Steve in his attempt to break the record, or you feel you've paid for regular updates as a form of entertainment. Arguably you could have both, but without a slightly slicker PR operation this may be tricky for Steve & Co to arrange. Personally I am not a regular direct debit supporter and have no expectations of regular news updates, however I might suggest that those who do have such expectations need to rein them in a bit. Yes, we are in the era of instantaneous updates, immediate gratification, soshul meedja and all that. Maybe though folk ought to cut Steve and his immediate support crew some slack: they presumably have their hands full as it is...
Your right I am principally donating to help Steve break the record and I dont feel by donating that I've paid for regular news updates to entertain me, but I am genuinely interested in Steve's journey, so how is anyone supposed to gain any knowledge of situation when there is only conjecture supported by the odd fact banded about. There used to be updates on Steve's webpage every month or so , since July one post. This post is about current thoughts on the record attempt, my view is that communication could be better from the team.
... I wouldn't mind at all being one of a group who take on the duties of driver/cook if a camper van were part of Steve's plans.
How much of Alicia's role where you thinking of taking on?
That actually calls into question what the point of The Team actually is, apart from the domestic duties back at Steve's flat, assuming that he is still having someone in to do his shopping, cooking and laundry.
To me - speaking as a friend of Steve - I just find this snide and nasty.
No, it isnt.To me - speaking as a friend of Steve - I just find this snide and nasty.
Don’t be ridiculous, although that’s your prerogative I suppose. It’s a reasonable question,
I would think that a tracker showing within a few minutes exactly where Steve is in the course of a day is pretty good feedback. In March, when he stopped for all that time in Devon, the longer it went on, the more worried I became. Likewise, in recent days the state of Steve's alimentary canal has been broadcast far and wide for our delectation.
OK, this isn't being given a glimpse into the finer points of team Steve's strategy, but if, after more than 11 months, it hasn't sunk in what that is (Steve gets up, rides a huge distance with occasional meal stops, goes to bed and does the same again every day) we haven't got the grips with what his strategy is, well...
I remember Mc Nasty telling us that he once met the bloke who got the highest mileage in a year. He mentioned that he had to re-learn how to walk afterwards and that he caught night trains into the wind so he could ride all day with a tailwind.
I'd check the facts before taking it as true, but Mc Nasty does know a thing or two about long distance cycling.
It's certainly worth finding out that sort of detail, otherwise you're working against an impossible target; chasing Godwin's record in a different ethical climate.
We know he had support from an elite group of Raleigh professional riders, and that place-to-place records were run at times when suitable winds were likely, and still are.
I don’t feel entitled, as such, to special updates of any kind as a result of making a small contribution.
Just a thought on the stomach troubles - it could easily be a bug that he picked up from some roadside muck. I struggled round the 2nd day of the Brimstone last year because of a campylobacter infection picked up from a muddy lane on the first day (confirmed by a GP who was also on the same event and was laid low in exactly the same way).
Can someone confirm that Steve is using covered Water Bottles?
If he isn't then he will be sipping small amounts of cow-shit all winter (actually any time you get run-off from fields or cycle through the mud at a farm gate).
Apparently Steve doesn't need this experienced helper at all between Christmas and New Year. Good to see that Hoppo has Steve's best interests at heart.
Apparently Steve doesn't need this experienced helper at all between Christmas and New Year. Good to see that Hoppo has Steve's best interests at heart.
Apparently Steve doesn't need this experienced helper at all between Christmas and New Year. Good to see that Hoppo has Steve's best interests at heart.
Don't take it to heart, wheelers, I'm sure it's nothing personal.
Looking at it kindly, the organisation of the attempt is now ad hoc.
Or one could describe it as shambolic.
Well, I still support him because he has done something that almost nobody has done be
I'm upset that a drunk person can cause so much grief, but more so that so many can take such glee in calling Steve a failure.
Shame on them.
but more so that so many can take such glee in calling Steve a failure.
None of that gleefully calls Steve a failure and all of it is true.
It is also true that Steve is failing at taking the record. Steve has the talent to take the record, if he and his team maximised his distance, but that isn't happening. Sad but true.
I can't help wondering how genuine (as in ridden on a bike without drafting verified distances etc) the Tommy record pace actually is, given the Herculean effort Kurt has been required to make to keep above it on nominally faster roads across the pond...
I think the actual mileage will be significantly higher, but we'll see.
Looking at the graph, Steve was fine until about day 100 of the consecutive attempt...Kurt had similar drops and recovered, so it's quite possible Steve will do the same, but if he's not able to then at least he tried which is a huge amount more than any of us has ever done. I'm glass half full on this and think Steve needs encouragement rather than negativity, so on a positive note....GOOOO Steve :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
I only dip into this thread, so I don't know if anyone has mentioned that when he set the record, Tommy Godwin, as well as being an established long distance cyclist with some pretty fast rides to his credit, was 27. I say again, "was 27". I think this is hugely important. Of course it also emphasises what astonishing efforts Kurt and Steve have made. But Tommy Godwin was 27.
Personally, I reckon Steve should abandon the restarted attempt on the 31st, having done a spectacular job and beaten several records on the original attempt *with a broken ankle*. Then he can take some time to recover and have a good hard think about strategy before having another go at it at a later date. I'm sure most of us would continue to support him...
100% in agreement with Kim and TimC. Sadly, what I suspect will happen is that Steve will plug on ("because that's what he does, heh?") and that no-one on the so-called team will brave the conversation with him that ought to be had. It'd be marginally more likely to be taken on board coming from someone on the inside, but my two-penn'orth to Steve is that he's done amazingly, but there's no sense compromising long-term health in pursuit of the 08/15-08/16 attempt.Personally, I reckon Steve should abandon the restarted attempt on the 31st, having done a spectacular job...I totally agree. If a dispassionate look at things shows that the probability of breaking the record on the concurrent attempt is now out of realistic reach, I see no point in continuing it. Whatever happens, Steve will finish 2015 with an incredible total...
A small correction. There was a reply from the team to my offer, basically "Thanks but no thanks"Okay, but the essence remains. What you were offering would have been fantastic - a real tribute to your generosity - and the numbers are suggesting that Steve could use all the help he can get at the moment.
Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.It's Thursday today.
Your point being?Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.It's Thursday today.
You'll have to think a bit harder.Your point being?Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.It's Thursday today.
No, I still can't see what point you're trying to make. Happy Thursday, though.You'll have to think a bit harder.Your point being?Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.It's Thursday today.
I had hoped you would but it's really more for LWAB to have a think about it.No, I still can't see what point you're trying to make. Happy Thursday, though.You'll have to think a bit harder.Your point being?Monday, after I'd complied with their requests and after I'd chased them up for a reply.It's Thursday today.
A small correction. There was a reply from the team to my offer, basically "Thanks but no thanks"
...
I'm a little bit shocked that Phartiphukborlz's and LWaB's offers of help have not been even acknowledged (let alone accepted), ...
Let us all hope that at the end of December and with over 100,000k Steve will make the sensible decision (Whatever that is considered the best option). He is some 1775 mls below the Godwin Line. If he were to average 215 mls a day from now on (not possible being winter ) it would take some 6.5 months to claw back to the Godwin Line. Let us all hope that the benefits of the better diet will kick in very soon. Also let us hope that Steve can have more vehicle transfers to his advantage. I would like to contribute more money to his efforts and it would be nice to hear from team member early in 2016 of adjusted strategy to enable him to maximise his miles to the maximum advantage.
Steve do have a successful last week to the end of December and the completion of the first attempt and rightly take your place of fame amongst the greats (and hopefully onwards and upwards! )
Ah - thanks for the detective-work, Greenbank! Yep, I probably shouldn't have assumed that the 'sound of crickets' was ongoing... (but, come to think of it, if LWaB made his offer on or before 11/12 and the thanks-but-no-thanks wasn't given back until 21/12, that's pretty shabby)
This isn't a call for business as usual as Steve slips down from the Godwin line, but a recognition that there is more to this than simply riding the most miles in a year.
I know there have been plenty of calls here and elsewhere for Steve to find an equivalent environment and adopt a similar strategy. But for me at least, part of the attraction of Steve's attempt is the approach it represents. Riding it audax style is something I can identify with. It represents a way of cycling I admire and is in contrast to a more 'professional' approach that Kurt's world represents. For me it's not a question of which is 'better' or more effective, but which has more emotional resonance.
This isn't a call for business as usual as Steve slips down from the Godwin line, but a recognition that there is more to this than simply riding the most miles in a year.
I wasn't making the comparison with Tommy's approach as such, more the connection with 'one of us'. Where 'us' is the stoic approach with a dash of self-sufficiency that characterises much of Audax. I realise this won't be the same for everyone, but it is why Steve's endeavour appeals to me.Sure, I understand that, I'm in the same camp myself really.
Are you seriously confused as to why numerous people couldn't understand what your post meant, or are you just trying to take some kind of misplaced high ground here? Write something deliberately cryptic on an Internet forum and people *will not* understand what you mean.Ah - thanks for the detective-work, Greenbank! Yep, I probably shouldn't have assumed that the 'sound of crickets' was ongoing... (but, come to think of it, if LWaB made his offer on or before 11/12 and the thanks-but-no-thanks wasn't given back until 21/12, that's pretty shabby)
More assumptions! LWAB did say "after I had complied with their requests" but didn't say how long that took. Certainly not as simple as crickets. Plus, given the vitriol that the whole "No reply" thing caused, perhaps something a little stronger than "A small correction" might have ben in order. I've highlighted the most judgemental bit of your post
Personally I think that people should stop saying that Steve should or must stop for his own good. Unless you are inside his head and his body, unless you have up-to-date intimate detail of his thoughts and feelings, then it is only your place to speculate or offer opinion, just like sports pundits or political commentators.
After all, we all know best, don't we?
Please, stop bickering, stop petty point-scoring: let Steve decide. Be supportive or destructive if you wish but we all value our autonomy, our ability to make decisions for ourselves.
There is no sense in my mind that there is any failure in Steve's attempt. He's still riding nearly a year after starting in spite of an accident. He's clocked up 100,000kms and counting. It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.
It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.
It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.
if i was riding this (ha ha), there would be no word "attempt" in my vocabulary and would ask this section in the forum to be renamed. the word is extremely disempowering especially if used before the challenge even starts. nothing wrong with using this lukewarm word after the challenge if it doesn't pan out as expected.
when i embark on a challenge myself - i'm playing full out, in my mind it's a done deal before it starts. there's no point in attempting or trying - go for it, just do it!! :thumbsup:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXsQAXx_ao0
;D
Take away the cheese though, and it ain't a bad vid imo.
It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.
if i was riding this (ha ha), there would be no word "attempt" in my vocabulary and would ask this section in the forum to be renamed. the word is extremely disempowering especially if used before the challenge even starts. nothing wrong with using this lukewarm word after the challenge if it doesn't pan out as expected.
when i embark on a challenge myself - i'm playing full out, in my mind it's a done deal before it starts. there's no point in attempting or trying - go for it, just do it!! :thumbsup:
:D yeah, good and funny
Of course it's Steve's decision as to what he does, and as I and many others have said, he has achieved an amazing amount over the year.
But it is also the decision of those who encourage him, with words, with deeds and with financial sponsorship, to decide whether - based on all the information available - they consider it wise to encourage him to carry on further.
Of course it's Steve's decision as to what he does, and as I and many others have said, he has achieved an amazing amount over the year.
But it is also the decision of those who encourage him, with words, with deeds and with financial sponsorship, to decide whether - based on all the information available - they consider it wise to encourage him to carry on further.
not only that but it's the right of Steve's sponsors to question the wisdom of continuing the attempt once it becomes apparent that it is not going to be a serious World Record Attempt they are financing.
It's an attempt, not a guaranteed shoe in.
if i was riding this (ha ha), there would be no word "attempt" in my vocabulary and would ask this section in the forum to be renamed. the word is extremely disempowering especially if used before the challenge even starts. nothing wrong with using this lukewarm word after the challenge if it doesn't pan out as expected.
when i embark on a challenge myself - i'm playing full out, in my mind it's a done deal before it starts. there's no point in attempting or trying - go for it, just do it!! :thumbsup:
Personally I think that people should stop saying that Steve should or must stop for his own good. Unless you are inside his head and his body, unless you have up-to-date intimate detail of his thoughts and feelings, then it is only your place to speculate or offer opinion, just like sports pundits or political commentators.
Someone, I forget who, suggested it was how Americans see their attempts, as done and dusted and leaving no room for any doubt as to the outcome, compared to a much more reserved BRITISH attitude. I have always tried to be realistic in the likely outcomes of competitions and challenges I have been involved in, taking into consideration a number of possible outcomes, of which the desired one was the aim, but it was always possible for it to be overtaken by events.
Personally I think that people should stop saying that Steve should or must stop for his own good. Unless you are inside his head and his body, unless you have up-to-date intimate detail of his thoughts and feelings, then it is only your place to speculate or offer opinion, just like sports pundits or political commentators.
I wasn't suggesting it out of concern for Steve's health - I trust he has that in hand - but simply at a strategy level. It's clear that he has no hope of beating Kurt on the original attempt, which means that if he takes the record, it will be in August. On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.
I don't know whether time off the bike would do Steve any good at all.
But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year.
Jeez - what the heck has that got to do with my post?But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year.
I'd suggest that that's the part of his strategy that could be improved.
This isn't an audax record, and he doesn't need to ride under audax conditions.
Jeez - what the heck has that got to do with my post?But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year.
I'd suggest that that's the part of his strategy that could be improved.
This isn't an audax record, and he doesn't need to ride under audax conditions.
Is there some sort of Pavlovian condition on this thread:
Must Post Something Negative About Steve's Strategy - Preferably Something Mentioned Eleventy Times Before.
On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.
I say, let's not lose sight of the fundamentals here:
Well, in the absence of actual information, what else is this thread going to be? And, as far as I can tell, it's what sports fans do when they talk about sport.
Ah, Whack-a-mole. Isn't that what some people confuse with mushy peas?
Ah, Whack-a-mole. Isn't that what some people confuse with mushy peas?no - that would be whackamol'ay.
On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.
Each day off the bike (now) means having to do more than a mile a day extra every day up until he finishes the second attempt in August 2016. A mile extra a day doesn't sound much but at this scale it's huge.
There is a POV that you need a few days recovery off the bike to think straight about strategy & other Big Stuff.I don't know whether time off the bike would do Steve any good at all.
It would give him time to address strategy properly. There aren't currently enough hours in the day for that.
But fair point about the mental side.
But remember Steve has been here before, on his AUK record year. Less miles but possibly less sleep too due to a FULL-TIME JOB! So he MIGHT know himself better than we do. We don't know.
Personally I think that people should stop saying that Steve should or must stop for his own good. Unless you are inside his head and his body, unless you have up-to-date intimate detail of his thoughts and feelings, then it is only your place to speculate or offer opinion, just like sports pundits or political commentators.
I wasn't suggesting it out of concern for Steve's health - I trust he has that in hand - but simply at a strategy level. It's clear that he has no hope of beating Kurt on the original attempt, which means that if he takes the record, it will be in August. On the basis that some time off the bike can only do him good, and there's room for improvement strategy wise, I'm suggesting that he might as well take the opportunity to improve his chances and make it n months later.
There is a POV that you need a few days recovery off the bike to think straight about strategy & other Big Stuff.I don't know whether time off the bike would do Steve any good at all.
It would give him time to address strategy properly. There aren't currently enough hours in the day for that.
But fair point about the mental side.
EDIT: what I meant here is that Steve may be very experienced in thinking strategy thru during days-n-days of 14-15 hours of low-intensity riding. He may, right now, be confident that he has considered all the main options, and has no need for extra hours in the day to address strategy.
From FaceBook
Here is a Christmas message and progress update from Steve Abraham - to all of you who've supported him through the year:
"As you are all probably aware, I have had a heavy loss of miles over the last 6 weeks or so.
That is down to a number of reasons.
Adaption to my new diet was very tough, but has all gone pretty much as expected.
My diet plan was modified so that I could take a few short cuts and also to account for my cycling demands. In theory I should not have been exercising for my first 2 weeks of adaption, which is why I lost so much weight.
My weight has been stable since my first week of adaption. My team and I took on the new diet for several reasons.
*Safeguarding my health so that I can keep going.
*Improving my performance (though that was not the main reason, it is a likelihood, even if only through speeding up my recovery, which I believe it could be doing).
*Practical reasons.
I was eating on the move during late summer and early autumn to save time. However, it wasn't working all that well because of the sheer volume of food I eat. It still takes time to prepare food to eat on the move and this was taking longer as the weather grew colder.
I could forsee spending as much time not moving as I did last winter. Once my new diet is in full flight I think I may be able to spend less time stopped in winter than I did last year, though this remains to be seen.
My new diet is well under way but not quite up to speed yet. I initially needed 4 big feeds a day and now only need 3.
Next step is to space out those feeds and I should also not need to eat as much for each feed, which will save even more time.
While my adaption was going on, there was also a lot of bad weather. Bad enough that trucks and busses were literally blown off the road!
My team and I anticipated the losses of Adaption for my new diet to be between 700-1000 miles. It was more like 1040, so considering the bad weather I would say we were pretty much spot on.
The next problem was my getting my stomach trouble, which hit the miles very hard. I never felt especially bad, except for one weekend, it just took it out of me as well as caused practical delays from toilet stops.
Tests were done at a private clinic and things seem to be on the up. Some results from my tests at the clinic are indicating that the new diet is improving my health and is working. I have felt much better in the last two days - and feel stronger.
I have been preparing myself for the tough winter ahead since September and now that my new diet is beginning to work and my tummy trouble seems to be going away, feel ready to take on winter with gusto.
With very nearly a year done I feel as if I have had a good warm up and ready to go. Thanks to my team for all of your hard work - and I include those who are no longer in the team.
I couldn't have done what I have without your help and support and I will never forget all that you have put in to help me even get started as well as keeping me going.
Also many thanks to the many people who have helped along the way by helping me get started as well as volunteering to help.
I also thank everyone who enjoys watching my progress and those who come out to cheer me along on the road.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all - and hope to see you on the road sometime next year.
Steve Abraham"
Steve is currently about 1800 miles behind Godwin's record. With 225 days left in his second attempt, Steve needs to exceed the 206 mile average daily distance by about 8 miles to match Tommy. Pretty much 214 miles need to be ridden every single day from now on.
Kurt looks likely to add about 1200 miles to Tommy's record. To match Kurt, Steve would need about 13 miles daily beyond Tommy's average. That is perilously close to averaging 220 miles every single day till the second attempt finishes.
Steve was barely able to consistently exceed 220 miles days at the height of Summer. He is currently dropping 1-2 Godwins a week and winter hasn't started yet (flowers are blooming!). Assuming no more than 10 hours (total) a day off the bike to sleep, shower and shit (and fill water bottles, dress, eat, etc), Steve needs to average 15.7 mph (25.3 km/h) just to reach 220 miles, let alone exceed it.
Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.
Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.
^^^^ That is a good summary, LWAB. I agree with it all apart from potential aero gains.
Aero does matter a Steve's speeds and his position, his bars and his head, are extremely high. He is leaving miles on the table by not getting more aero. Of course it's a trade-off between what is comfortable and what is fast, but, with the right stretching programme, improvements can be accommodated, and they can be made gradually, and backed off if need be.
Do you know that is the case? I've never discussed with Steve why his position is so high and he may well have an old injury. Even so, I'd be surprised if he couldn't improve on it with the right advice and adaptation programme. In my experience, physios always go on about how bad it is for your back to sit at a computer all day.
Understand what exactly? Steve makes many points.
As for what he should do about his bike or his riding position: I am sure that Steve and the team have that in hand too. I recall that Steve spent a good deal of time getting the bike setup spot on for him before he set out on this quest.
I'm sure that many will disagree of course...
What is the best flatwood park equivalent anywhere in the UK? 11km loop, among trees, very good traffic free surface and 4m climb per lap.
Understand what exactly? Steve makes many points.
Exactly. Steve makes many good points.
Understand then that there is proactive work going on in the background, that there is a plan. Steve has strategically changed his diet to help with his shot at the record to increase his moving time over winter and the mileage 'shortfall' was expected, planned in, and therefore nothing for them to get overly exercised about.
Seems to me like Steve and the Team have it all in hand.
As for what he should do about his bike or his riding position: I am sure that Steve and the team have that in hand too. I recall that Steve spent a good deal of time getting the bike setup spot on for him before he set out on this quest.
I'm sure that many will disagree of course...
What is the best flatwood park equivalent anywhere in the UK? 11km loop, among trees, very good traffic free surface and 4m climb per lap.
Richmond Park?
Too hilly
What is the best flatwood park equivalent anywhere in the UK? 11km loop, among trees, very good traffic free surface and 4m climb per lap.
Richmond Park?
What about the mersey 24 hr circuits? are they too hilly? I would have thought there would be lots of people who would be willing to spend one day a week or fortnight or month doing circuits up there either in echelon or whatever to give Steve protection. To double your energy expenditure because you are u willing to ride in a group seems crazy.
We have seen a lot of posts that only Steve knows how to ride this challenge.
I think this conflates two operate things.
Only Steve and Kurt know what it feels like mentally and physically to do the riding on this scale.
Steve and Kurt are not the only people who noe how a year challenge should be ridden. Chris Froome knows what it feels like to ride the TdF but he doesn't really know "how" to ride the TdF and it is quite clear that Brailsford, et al are the people who control the day to day and strategic stuff.
I had assumed that the team around Steve were running the show with input from Steve, very much as we have seen Alicia telling kurt where to ride, etc.
But sometimes this is counter productive, the day before he had his RTC where he done 60 miles into a head wind taking 7 hours is one such example.
...
I don't think the team has had much input from what I've seen, what I have seen is pretty much ''Steve knows best.'' and that is pretty much that.
...
QuoteBut sometimes this is counter productive, the day before he had his RTC where he done 60 miles into a head wind taking 7 hours is one such example.
the whole ride that day was into the wind, 212 miles, starting at 6am and ending around 3am at under 13mph
Some airfields have perimeter roads. These tend to be flat as airfields tend to be built on plains. Those might offer Steve a traffic free loop of reasonable length, if a suitable one can be found and the airfield owner consents.Good call.
Have you read Fidgetbuzz's contributions?
Have you read Fidgetbuzz's contributions?
I have. He makes some very good and well thought through points - he's not just bouncing up and down on the sofa screaming at the computer. He even suggests that the team should consider stuff posted here and sift out the good stuff, note the good stuff, not all the chaff in here, then run it past Steve. Exactly the way to manage the challenge. There is no reason to think that the team are not doing that anyway even though we don't know this.
I have managed multi-million pound projects running over a number of years. You start with a plan, you keep fully abreast of the risks and issues, then you keep a close eye on these as the project progresses. As new risks and issues appear you take them on board and continue to plan and manage. Just because we cannot see Steve and his team doing this doesn't mean that it is not happening. In fact, clearly it is as they decided to go for the dietary change and they clearly, form the facebook post, worked out the risks and issues with that.
I don't see how they can sate the appetites of all and sundry without a full time PR role. Perhaps that is a thought to be put to the team and to Steve?
Apologies I forget, you've managed multi-million pound projects and I'm just someone who jumps up and down on the sofa screaming at the computer. ::-)
Look at Steve's website. It has 2 PR people listed. How is Steve's PR going?
Some airfields have perimeter roads. These tend to be flat as airfields tend to be built on plains. Those might offer Steve a traffic free loop of reasonable length, if a suitable one can be found and the airfield owner consents.Good call.
The Science Museum owns Wroughton Airfield, just to the south of Swindon.
It has a perimeter road a little proud of 3 miles.
It isn't pancake flat, but it isn't far off it.
Nothing much (other than Swindon Model Aircraft Club) takes off or lands there these days - the runways aren't in particularly good condition, and there are few other facilities which would allow take-off and landing.
I can't help but wonder whether given the right 'scientific angle / record-breaking' approach, that their PR machine would welcome having a such a long-standing record broken on their site......
Using an airfield perimeter road or a flat racing circuit is an excellent suggestion but the location would ideally have fast roads to get to it. That would rule out things like Richmond Park. Steve would only be likely to use such a circuit once a week or so and fast riders would mostly be prepared to ride with him on weekends only.RAF Wroughton dangles from one of the tributaries of the A4.
Jaded, run Steve's numbers yourself and see what conclusion you come to. Further grinding Steve into the dirt won't achieve his aim of taking Tommy's record. Happy Boxing Day!
Steve is currently about 1800 miles behind Godwin's record. With 225 days left in his second attempt, Steve needs to exceed the 206 mile average daily distance by about 8 miles to match Tommy. Pretty much 214 miles need to be ridden every single day from now on.
Kurt looks likely to add about 1200 miles to Tommy's record. To match Kurt, Steve would need about 13 miles daily beyond Tommy's average. That is perilously close to averaging 220 miles every single day till the second attempt finishes.
Steve was barely able to consistently exceed 220 miles days at the height of Summer. He is currently dropping 1-2 Godwins a week and Winter hasn't started yet (flowers are blooming!). Assuming no more than 10 hours (total) a day off the bike to sleep, shower and shit (and fill water bottles, dress, eat, etc), Steve needs to average 15.7 mph (25.3 km/h) just to reach 220 miles, let alone exceed it.
Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.
Yes, and sadly almost all UK racing circuits are based on airfield sites (which is rather excellent for driver helicopter access!). Silverstone may be the windiest place on the planet.
^^^good thought, but airfields are often windy!
Using an airfield perimeter road or a flat racing circuit is an excellent suggestion but the location would ideally have fast roads to get to it. That would rule out things like Richmond Park. Steve would only be likely to use such a circuit once a week or so and fast riders would mostly be prepared to ride with him on weekends only.On a shortish circuit, riders could join and leave the fun at will. It wouldn't just be limited to fast riders, since Steve would, I guess, only be wanting to attain an average of 17-18mph, which is easy for most club riders in a bunch to keep up for a few hours. Many midweek club rides go out in many parts of the country - either flexible workers, students or retirees.
He clearly massively overestimated his abilities when he initially scheduled for the Jan 15attemptchallenge, so, regrettably, I think that any confidence that he or his team project about limiting their perceived losses over the past few week needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Using an airfield perimeter road or a flat racing circuit is an excellent suggestion but the location would ideally have fast roads to get to it. That would rule out things like Richmond Park. Steve would only be likely to use such a circuit once a week or so and fast riders would mostly be prepared to ride with him on weekends only.
Jaded, run Steve's numbers yourself and see what conclusion you come to. Grinding Steve further into the dirt won't achieve his aim of taking Tommy's record. Happy Boxing Day!
For the slow of thinking, only HK and I have crewed for Steve at 24hr TTs, we were amongst the first to sponsor Steve, we were the first to host him and I offered to crew for him full-time between Christmas and New Year. We continue to wish him all the best in achieving his aims and would be happy to help him get there. What he and his team is doing now will not let him do that.
I'm not sure "train" is what Steve did. If I read it correctly he was relying on superior time management. That's a sound strategy as Steve lacks the top end speed endurance of Kurt. Steve's Facebook message alludes to this still being the strategy. It's still a sound strategy but faces a challenge of other factors out of his control frustrating that progress. Hopefully either his luck turns (although luck is 90% preparation according to Mark Twain) or the changes he introduces counteracts them.
At the moment, it feels like Steve is the pilot of an airplane preparing for take off but the passengers are worried that the runway is going to run out before the wheels lift off the Tarmac. Problem being the passengers are looking out of the windows with only a limited angle of view, and some are saying they know how to fly the plane, and others trust the experienced crew up front. Insert Airplane joke here...
Insert Airplane joke here...
Alicia is the biggest advantage Kurt has had. She has kept him focused, studied the weather, sorted accommodation and so on. Every time Kurt has weakened mentally, she has adjusted the situation, arranged riding companions and brought him back on track. She has been (mostly) able to keep him riding, despite multiple efforts to destroy bikes.
Silverstone perhaps.
I'm not sure "train" is what Steve did. If I read it correctly he was relying on superior time management. That's a sound strategy as Steve lacks the top end speed endurance of Kurt. Steve's Facebook message alludes to this still being the strategy. It's still a sound strategy but faces a challenge of other factors out of his control frustrating that progress. Hopefully either his luck turns (although luck is 90% preparation according to Mark Twain) or the changes he introduces counteracts them.
At the moment, it feels like Steve is the pilot of an airplane preparing
:like:
(I do agree with LWAB that Steve could have got himself into better form on Dec 31st, but;
- I think he expected to "ride himself into fitness". This is a VERY popular meme.
- He was very distracted in Autumn 2014.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing :P
)
If I recall correctly he was busy from dawn till dusk on computer in the weeks leading up to the start and didn't have as much time as he'd wished to be as fit as intended
So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?
Castle Combe circuit (near Chippenham, Wilts) isn't heavily used for motorised stuffs, IIRC, as the locals have put in restrictions on noise. Local, and not so local, cycling clubs can and do use it for not very much money.Good call also. Not flat from what I recall but not bad and sheltered from some wind direcetions.
Another thought: This morning, a couple of strong riders could have towed Steve into the headwind for 60-80km at 25+km/h, allowing Steve to have a much longer downwind run before running out of England.+1 :thumbsup:
So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?
So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?
I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent. I'd lose respect for him and his attempt. It's the one aspect of Kurt's record that I get all UCI over. I do appreciate what Kurt has achieved and the devotion it took, but my own silly little worldview is that there should be a separate category for events that use a recumbent (even though in reality it would be difficult to "police"). :-X
I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent. I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.
Most unfaired recumbents aren't hugely faster than a good TT bike anyway.
So since speed is what is needed, might the 'bent be the only viable option?
I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent. I'd lose respect for him and his attempt. It's the one aspect of Kurt's record that I get all UCI over.
I don't know enough about this particular aspect to make a sensible comment.
I do know several folk who have transitioned from recumbents back to uprights for long brevets. If you only have a single (recumbent) riding position, you can't afford the slightest discomfort in that position.
Out of interest, how many of the naysayers have actually used recumbents?
Most unfaired recumbents aren't hugely faster than a good TT bike anyway.
Kurt regularly uses a highracer. Steve used a trike with the broken leg.
Out of interest, how many of the naysayers have actually used recumbents?
I have. I found it harder on my quads and knees. It's harder to pedal in circles on a recumbent, I think.
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.
And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-
F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)
Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.
I'd be interested to see what he has to say about his experiences of the DS, because from a distance it looks like he's used the bent almost like a recovery style of bike. I'm not aware of him piling on a huge advantage when he rides the recumbent, you've really got to be in the zone and fully accustomed to get the most out of them really, but he's clearly had a reason to have the Bacchetta in the fleet. Like I said, it's probably been for variety as much as anything.
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.
And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-
F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)
Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.
Quite.
OOI, do you find your maximum power limited by the biomechanics?
My anecdata (no power meter, sadly) is that at 'audax pace' all bikes climb equally well (assuming equivalent weight, gearing and a non-trivial gradient). But if I go to flat out puke-your-guts-out sprint mode, uprights get me to the asthma attack faster.
Anyway, we're going off-topic...
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.
And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-
F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)
Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.
Tests have shown that over 8%, the speed is to slow to take advantage of the aero advantage that riding a recumbent brings. But of course you make this up on the flats and going down hills.
With respect to Steve's attempt if he was to invest in a low racer or a M5 carbon high racer then headwinds would have a lesser bearing on his routing.
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.
And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-
F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)
Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.
Tests have shown that over 8%, the speed is to slow to take advantage of the aero advantage that riding a recumbent brings. But of course you make this up on the flats and going down hills.
With respect to Steve's attempt if he was to invest in a low racer or a M5 carbon high racer then headwinds would have a lesser bearing on his routing.
You forgot the one about f = mg. If a recumbent is heavier, it will go up hills slower.
The 8% figure is spurious: the power lost to gravity and aero drag both scale with speed, not gradient. Pa scales with the cube of speed, Pg scales linearly, hence why aero drag is unimportant going up any serious hill - and unless you're Chris Froome and can go up steep hills at speeds fast enough for that V3 to come into effect, that's probably going to be a lot less than 8%.
You forgot the one about f = mg. If a recumbent is heavier, it will go up hills slower.
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.
And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-
F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)
Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.
Tests have shown that over 8%, the speed is to slow to take advantage of the aero advantage that riding a recumbent brings. But of course you make this up on the flats and going down hills.
With respect to Steve's attempt if he was to invest in a low racer or a M5 carbon high racer then headwinds would have a lesser bearing on his routing.
You forgot the one about f = mg. If a recumbent is heavier, it will go up hills slower.
The 8% figure is spurious: the power lost to gravity and aero drag both scale with speed, not gradient. Pa scales with the cube of speed, Pg scales linearly, hence why aero drag is unimportant going up any serious hill - and unless you're Chris Froome and can go up steep hills at speeds fast enough for that V3 to come into effect, that's probably going to be a lot less than 8%.
The aero advantage for a bent is there upto a hill of about 8% grad. This has been tested many times, with papers published on it.
My own tests show that my recumbent with a power output of 350w goes up a hill with an average gradient of 6% 0.8kph quicker than my upright athe same power, and the recumbent is heavier by 2lbs.
The aero advantage for a bent is there upto a hill of about 8% grad. This has been tested many times, with papers published on it.
The aero advantage for a bent is there upto a hill of about 8% grad. This has been tested many times, with papers published on it.
i'd be interested to read at least a couple of these papers, as in my experience the real advantage of recumbent is going downhill. on a flat it's the same as riding an upright bike on tribars, and they are slower up the hills. it's probably an unfair comparison as my bikes were 7-8kg and recumbents at least 4kg heavier.
fwiw, i climb ~10% slower on a bike that's 5kg heavier.
I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent. I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.
News just in: He already did.
Yes, that is my (unreliable) understanding too.I hope Steve doesn't use a recumbent. I'd lose respect for him and his attempt.
News just in: He already did.
On the restart? I know about the trike recumbent used whilst he nursed a broken ankle. And which I thought he packed away come August. But I may be wrong.
Because the circuit would be quite short and the idea is ride in a fast group, headwinds are much less of a problem, as long as Steve doesn't do an upwind turn. That is the job of a big bloke who doesn't mind headwinds.
I'm quoting data from my own tests carried out my recumbent and upright with some P1 powertap pedals.
And regarding the hill thing, it's physics:-
F=CdA*p*(v^2/2)
Stands to reason that if the recumbent has a lower drag coefficient (CdA) then it requires less power to go up a hill at the same speed.
Tests have shown that over 8%, the speed is to slow to take advantage of the aero advantage that riding a recumbent brings. But of course you make this up on the flats and going down hills.
With respect to Steve's attempt if he was to invest in a low racer or a M5 carbon high racer then headwinds would have a lesser bearing on his routing.
You forgot the one about f = mg. If a recumbent is heavier, it will go up hills slower.
The 8% figure is spurious: the power lost to gravity and aero drag both scale with speed, not gradient. Pa scales with the cube of speed, Pg scales linearly, hence why aero drag is unimportant going up any serious hill - and unless you're Chris Froome and can go up steep hills at speeds fast enough for that V3 to come into effect, that's probably going to be a lot less than 8%.
The aero advantage for a bent is there upto a hill of about 8% grad. This has been tested many times, with papers published on it.
My own tests show that my recumbent with a power output of 350w goes up a hill with an average gradient of 6% 0.8kph quicker than my upright athe same power, and the recumbent is heavier by 2lbs.
No. Aerodynamic drag is a function of speed. The speed you can go up an 8% hill, and thus the ratio of power lost to drag and gravity, will depend on the rider. Variation between riders is enough that 8% is a meaningless figure.
Also, LWaB was talking about "a good TT bike". When you did your tests, were you using a good TT bike? What were your CdA values for your recumbent and your upright?
Steve has said in the past he doesn't like drafting. It puts too much pressure on both parties. No idea what his current thoughts are.That is interesting because all my slowest 400km rides have been in groups riding the Arrow. Solo I have been much quicker. There again this is not a good comparison because I would not expect the group to slow when riding with Steve, as it does on the Arrow for a riding who is having a bad patch.
To get the record on the restart, Steve needs to average about 220 miles per day, somewhat more than 15 mph for 14 hours every day till August. How many weeks has Steve averaged 220 daily miles in the past year?
Steve has said in the past he doesn't like drafting. It puts too much pressure on both parties. No idea what his current thoughts are.
All the fastest rides I have done have been drafting and have been for shorter times. There is a mental strain with group riding as the concentration levels must be higher. The higher the speed the greater the concentration. It takes time to trust other riders - how close can I get to his wheel? Can I overlap to avoid braking? if he is twitchy I cannot. Starting to slow, when will he finish his turn? I can understand Steve's reluctance ...
...I think sleep is very important and Steve needs to be a little faster to get enough. But all is not lost on the current attempt, if he can speed up.
BB
Never overlap wheels with anyone! Once you do, you have given away your ability to steer and, if they don't do what you thought they would do, it would get nasty (correct technique to avoid braking is to give their arse a gentle push to maintain the gap)
Never overlap wheels with anyone! Once you do, you have given away your ability to steer and, if they don't do what you thought they would do, it would get nasty (correct technique to avoid braking is to give their arse a gentle push to maintain the gap)
<Stan's_Advocate>
Another mark in favour of recumbents - no wheel overlap when riding in a bunch :demon:
</Stan's_Advocate>
Clear polycarbonate shield, reduce road spray for follower, reduce wheel overlap, couple him closer to the drag surface.The rider will be able to ride at 10mph rendering all the protection irrelevant. :thumbsup:
(http://book-to-ride.com/oytt_screen.png)
The rider will be able to ride at 10mph rendering all the protection irrelevant. :thumbsup:
You are missing the point I'm making, the speed that I go up a hill is such that the aero advantage outweighs any sort of disparity in weight between my recumbent and my upright. All the figures used are constants, - do the maths.
I've no idea what my Cda values are for my recumbent and upright, I've never worked them out. From what I've seen 180w gives me a 3mph advantage over my upright. A good TT bike would not be a whole lot better, and certainly would not be good for Steve's attempt imo given the such aggressive geometry when churing out such a large milage.
I've had a quick look using the Strava global heatmap (http://labs.strava.com/heatmap/) to see if there are any local airfields that have been used by cyclists. Chalgrove has restricted access and no activity. Abingdon has had some activity, not sure why or how (http://labs.strava.com/heatmap/#15/-1.32123/51.68619/gray/bike). No activity at Wroughton or Little Rissington. Perhaps a way of finding local circuits that have been used before?
You are missing the point I'm making, the speed that I go up a hill is such that the aero advantage outweighs any sort of disparity in weight between my recumbent and my upright. All the figures used are constants, - do the maths.
I've no idea what my Cda values are for my recumbent and upright, I've never worked them out. From what I've seen 180w gives me a 3mph advantage over my upright. A good TT bike would not be a whole lot better, and certainly would not be good for Steve's attempt imo given the such aggressive geometry when churing out such a large milage.
Your tests are telling you something specific to you, your bikes and how you use them, an has no applicability to anyone else.
Since you were using these tests to refute LWaB's statement that a good TT position isn't much less aero than a recumbent, I looked up some recumbent CdA values
Here they are (http://www.recumbents.com/wisil/simul/hpv_simul.asp#look-up)
A really good TT position these days will have a CdA of 0.18-0.19, i.e. well above the velomobiles but below several of the less extreme recumbents.
In other words, LWaB was right and you were wrong.
Bikes and riders have come on since Boardman: a modern tribar position on a modern bike, in either the pro ranks or the sharp end of the domestic circuit, has a CdA not far off Boardman's.
Aerodynamics and how not to generalise test results: i make that two counts on which you're demonstrably talking out of your rear end.
The rider will be able to ride at 10mph rendering all the protection irrelevant. :thumbsup:
But attach that to the back of a motorbike and maybe we're getting somewhere :P
A Sky pro (Porte?) rode a comfortable 400km training ride in daylight not so long ago.
A Sky pro (Porte?) rode a comfortable 400km training ride in daylight not so long ago.
There's a report here http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/02/cam-and-richies-excellent-adventure/ (http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/02/cam-and-richies-excellent-adventure/). The data at the end is reported as below (not clear whether this was Porte's or Wurf's. They finished in the dark, although they didn't set out to ride 400km originally.
Ride time: 13hrs 30min
Distance: 403km
comparing a 50 year old with a professional cyclist in their prime isn't viable.
I believe at these ultra distances Kurt is as Pro as the Pros. Didn't he ride 253 miles last Feb at Sebring in 11hrs 53 min? And hasn't he been riding almost every day since? They have nothing on Tarzan.
Chris Boardman is thought of as a short triallist. He used to and may still hold the course record on one of the North-West hilliest trials up Dovestones. These people are just different from us!
...I'm sure that if it was put to the professional cyclist in the correct way, i.e. the way they are used to: you will be paid at least as much as you would get from your normal activities and compensation for lost earnings while you recover and you will have a back-up team, then some of them might easily beat Tommy's figure - by a huge margin....
Incidentally, big kudos to Citizenfish for his book, which kept me up way past my bedtime last night.
Let's say an average pro cyclist does 80 days racing a year average 4 hours each - 320 hours.
Tommy didn't do the whole year in a solo 'romantic' fashion. His big mileage months had full-time motorised support. When that was withdrawn, Tommy was much closer to his average daily distance, much the same daily distance as Steve was doing in summer.I have always noted that there is quite a lot of people who ride Audax who believe they are really good cyclists. Well some are but most are not. Before I had my stents fitted I chased Richie Tout to the finish of the BC in 17 hours, I only ever finished half way up a club TT and was always blown away on the hills by my club mates. All this distance stuff is about what you want to do, and if you cannot go too fast you can do a creditable endurance performance. There are many riders at my club that if were so disposed could put in fantastic Audax performances, but they choose to race, do TTs and some ride the track. There is one who asked me where the fun is at riding 70% of your max all day? Then I asked him what is the point of doing a 10 mile TT where your legs hurt for the rest of the day - get my point. It is about desire.
The professionals' physical abilities could put the record well beyond the reach of even such rare and talented riders as Tommy, Kurt or Steve. For example, mid-range professional Jock Boyer won his first RAAM at record pace on the basis of no specific distance training and with an inexperienced crew, though he was run close by Secrest. A Sky pro (Porte?) rode a comfortable 400km training ride in daylight not so long ago.
Let's say an average pro cyclist does 80 days racing a year average 4 hours each - 320 hours.
OK - I am not going to get drawn into this in any big way, but pros spend rather longer than that in the saddle each year.
Niki Terpstra - 836 hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/340874
LTD- 792hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/laurenstendam
Roy Jeremy - 758hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/royjeremy
Thibay Pinot - 680 hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/tpinot
There are lots of gaps in all of their schedules, so I suspect it is significantly short for all of them.
David Lopez is at 1030hrs - https://www.strava.com/pros/davidlopez
It's still less than 3 hrs a day.
Anyway, I can not see a current pro going for this record even if there were big bucks on the table, which of course there is not.
yeah I admit, only a very very rough guess. Those strava figures probably include training, which only fair to do.
Not all pros think they are paid just for the time they are riding. Allan Peiper (contemporary of Sean Yates) remarked that he was paid as a professional cyclist for the whole year, so eating the right things, stretching and other physical preparation, media interviews and appearances for his sponsors was just part of the deal.
I believe at these ultra distances Kurt is as Pro as the Pros. Didn't he ride 253 miles last Feb at Sebring in 11hrs 53 min? And hasn't he been riding almost every day since? They have nothing on Tarzan.
Err, I've done more than that in 12 hours! And that's nothing special; any average club rider who focused on distance riding would achieve that. The 12-hour record is 318 miles - set by an amateur, at age 49. A professional who put his mind to it would do a lot more. However, there is no prospect of one stepping up to do so any time soon: when a couple of them ride a 400km, it makes the news!
i see it as something that Jens Voight might have done at the end of his career, already wealthy, big company backing in Trek, already has the social media side of things ticked, first to re-do the hour after they changed the rules, wasn't even a high mark, just the new mark, marketers dream
i see it as something that Jens Voight might have done at the end of his career, already wealthy, big company backing in Trek, already has the social media side of things ticked, first to re-do the hour after they changed the rules, wasn't even a high mark, just the new mark, marketers dream
He's got 6 kids, the youngest being 4. I guess he wouldn't want to miss a year of them growing up.
Can thebike (recumbent vs upright)professionals doing THE record attempt discussion please fuck off to another thread?
Ta.
All of the above is very interesting but seems to have drifted slightly from "current thoughts on the record attempt". ;D
Steve appears to have done weeks of sub-200 mile days.
What is going on with his attempt???
We all hope all is well with Steve. Lots of concerned friends on here.
Indeed. I think the end is (or should be) near. It's been a magnificent effort, but surely it's time to recognise that the record is out of reach.
Indeed. I think the end is (or should be) near. It's been a magnificent effort, but surely it's time to recognise that the record is out of reach.
I reluctantly agree. I think yesterday's 25 miles confirms things really, not just because of the 180 miles lost but because the reasons for the short day suggest he needs further time to recover from long-term fatigue. I hope he continues to the 31st December, perhaps with a little push at the end to consolidate his 2015 age-category record. But to continue into 2016 without a break and re-evaluation of strategy puts the attempt into Quixotic territory.
Indeed. I think the end is (or should be) near. It's been a magnificent effort, but surely it's time to recognise that the record is out of reach.
I reluctantly agree. I think yesterday's 25 miles confirms things really, not just because of the 180 miles lost but because the reasons for the short day suggest he needs further time to recover from long-term fatigue. I hope he continues to the 31st December, perhaps with a little push at the end to consolidate his 2015 age-category record. But to continue into 2016 without a break and re-evaluation of strategy puts the attempt into Quixotic territory.
Steve will be better remembered for a gallant but unsuccessful attempt on the OYTT than he would be for just pushing on. And on, and on and on, getting ever further away from his target and diminishing the stature of what has been an incredible effort through outrageous difficulties. Stop on 31st, Steve. Come back in 2017 (or later) if you want to, but don't drag it out any longer. It's painful to watch - it must be far more painful to endure.
Also, the knowledge that Kurt wouldn't have done it without Steve doing all the preparatory work with the UMCA. Whatever the future of The Year Record, the interest that has been rekindled is almost exclusively the work of Mr. S. Abraham.
The description of Steve's effort thus far, from my perspective, is truly heroic.
The description of Steve's effort thus far, from my perspective, is truly heroic.
Agreed.
Re funding, I am going to await developments and see what Steve's plan is. I suspect that the post-attempt transition might be a time when support, of all kinds, is most needed.
Back in July I posted this:Let's hope the weight of expectation (his own as well as others) isn't pushing Steve to attempt more than he is able to handle, mentally and physically. I hope there someone in the team that Steve trusts that would be able to call a halt if (heaven forbid) things start looking risky?
It has been pretty clear that Steve has been on the limit for the whole year (minus the accident recovery period). He must be mentally and physically frazzled. Who is now making the decisions about what is possible, sensible and indeed safe?
The description of Steve's effort thus far, from my perspective, is truly heroic.
Agreed.
Re funding, I am going to await developments and see what Steve's plan is. I suspect that the post-attempt transition might be a time when support, of all kinds, is most needed.
Your best hope of getting an answer is to get Hoppo or Idai to reply, probably by a direct e-mail to them rather than by a forum post, possibly citing your concern as a donor as a reason for your enquiry, although I am not sure from past experience whether Hoppo is able to accept and understand the facts and then to make a realistic extrapolation about the possible futures .. from which sensible decisions can then be made.
Your best hope of getting an answer is to get Hoppo or Idai to reply, probably by a direct e-mail to them rather than by a forum post, possibly citing your concern as a donor as a reason for your enquiry, although I am not sure from past experience whether Hoppo is able to accept and understand the facts and then to make a realistic extrapolation about the possible futures .. from which sensible decisions can then be made.
I have an email drafted already as I am indeed a concerned standing-order donor. However I had intended to send it to Ian H as the last communication (a request for help) came from him. I don't recall having received any emails from either Hoppo or Idai during the year. However if you think that's more likely to garner a response I'll hapily email them.
Edit: as the email to Ian was sat there ready I sent it to him anyway :)
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army?
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army? Then he should be able to prioritise his troops' welfare above all else. The task is always impossible if the troops are fucked.
The Army works like this: If a man dies when you hang him, keep hanging him until he gets used to it.
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army? Then he should be able to prioritise his troops' welfare above all else. The task is always impossible if the troops are fucked.
Reading Steve's ride titles on Strava, and watching his mileage slide further and further each day over the past month, I keep thinking back to an article in Outside Magazine from last summer. "Running on Empty" (http://www.outsideonline.com/1986361/running-empty) tells the story of a particularly virulent strain of Overtraining Syndrome (OTS) that is plaguing more and more ultra-distance athletes. OTS has weird manifestations rooted in deep, deep fatigue. Often, athletes respond to it by thinking they're not going hard or long enough, and just push themselves in deeper.
My sincere hope is that Steve has not been reading this thread for the past week or so.
I wish him well in whatever he decides to do with his time and effort. When I signed up to support him at the outset of this attempt, it never occurred to me that I would question his methods, and I remain happy to place my faith in his ability and his self-knowledge. That faith will remain until he stops trying, and it is for no-one else but Steve to decide when that moment has arrived. At that point, when Steve decides to knock it on the head, irrespective of miles covered, I expect that my faith in his ability will transform into admiration for his achievement. However that achievement is measured, I feel sure that it will represent the man's best efforts, and that's good enough for me.
Reading Steve's ride titles on Strava, and watching his mileage slide further and further each day over the past month, I keep thinking back to an article in Outside Magazine from last summer. "Running on Empty" (http://www.outsideonline.com/1986361/running-empty) tells the story of a particularly virulent strain of Overtraining Syndrome (OTS) that is plaguing more and more ultra-distance athletes. OTS has weird manifestations rooted in deep, deep fatigue. Often, athletes respond to it by thinking they're not going hard or long enough, and just push themselves in deeper.
That's a hugely fascinating and scary article! From an outside perspective, it does sound plausible that Steve may be at least on the cusp of developing some OTS symptoms.
Except that Kurt has maintained similar levels of cardio exertion and seems to be maintaining his fitness quite well.
... someone on the Timetrialling forum saying that
Except that Kurt has maintained similar levels of cardio exertion and seems to be maintaining his fitness quite well.
Except that Kurt has maintained similar levels of cardio exertion and seems to be maintaining his fitness quite well.
I think the difference with Kurt is that he is a very competitive guy. All year in facebook videos he has mentioned chasing down people on the road he has seen, so I would assume there has been some variation.
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army? Then he should be able to prioritise his troops' welfare above all else. The task is always impossible if the troops are fucked.
was he anything to do with a BBC reality TV programme about RAAM with some noob who'd only ever done London-Brighton being signed up to the team (and dropped from after the ritual humiliation in front of the cameras)
ISTR it was an Army team
Wasn't Hoppo a SNCO in the Army? Then he should be able to prioritise his troops' welfare above all else. The task is always impossible if the troops are fucked.
was he anything to do with a BBC reality TV programme about RAAM with some noob who'd only ever done London-Brighton being signed up to the team (and dropped from after the ritual humiliation in front of the cameras)
ISTR it was an Army team
I remember the programme; I think the team was from the RAF and Hoppo was brought in as an Expert.
Quote... someone on the Timetrialling forum saying that
Well, we should take such theories seriously. Even more so if they are backed up by, say;
- The Daily Mail Motoring section,
- some bloke in the pub,
- my taxi driver, or
- a Youtube comment
Litte Rissington has a great big lump in the middle if I remember correctly, unless theyve changed it since i flew gliders and light aircraft there.
What about lyneham?
Or even somewhere like Rockingham, isn't that the oval circuit?
My sincere hope is that Steve has not been reading this thread for the past week or so.
I wish him well in whatever he decides to do with his time and effort. When I signed up to support him at the outset of this attempt, it never occurred to me that I would question his methods, and I remain happy to place my faith in his ability and his self-knowledge. That faith will remain until he stops trying, and it is for no-one else but Steve to decide when that moment has arrived. At that point, when Steve decides to knock it on the head, irrespective of miles covered, I expect that my faith in his ability will transform into admiration for his achievement. However that achievement is measured, I feel sure that it will represent the man's best efforts, and that's good enough for me.
My sincere hope is that Steve has not been reading this thread for the past week or so.
I wish him well in whatever he decides to do with his time and effort. When I signed up to support him at the outset of this attempt, it never occurred to me that I would question his methods, and I remain happy to place my faith in his ability and his self-knowledge. That faith will remain until he stops trying, and it is for no-one else but Steve to decide when that moment has arrived. At that point, when Steve decides to knock it on the head, irrespective of miles covered, I expect that my faith in his ability will transform into admiration for his achievement. However that achievement is measured, I feel sure that it will represent the man's best efforts, and that's good enough for me.
+1
I can't see Steve packing. if you've done long distance TTs you'll know that there's a hierarchy. The top contenders have a strict schedule, and when they're off it they stop. Everyone else has a cascade of subsidiary goals.
I'd start off with a goal of 400 miles, then 600km, then 15mph average, and so forth.
I don't buy into the binary Record/Failure idea, and I'm surprised that so many do. The moped incident has introduced a element of complication. Steve should have had an uninterrupted year, and we'd have seen what he could have done in his own style. I don't see anything wrong with Steve continuing to August at any pace he feels like doing.
The interest to me lies in seeing how someone can move forward from his current state. Most training manuals would see what he's been doing as a recipe for getting slower. Without a need to target the record, other training approaches can be tried. The HAMR clock has been paid for and it runs until August. I'd like to see Steve move to a more normal workload, and to target TT distances, culminating in the 24, via the Mille Pennines and the Wild Atlantic Way.
The flat circuit idea is a good one.
But Steve would need access to it 24/7 for a year, which I reckon rules out any private facility.
Some speak about a rumour JaguarLandRover have made a bid to buy the Silverstone race circuit.Sounds a goer. :thumbsup:
They ( Tata ) already own RAF Gaydon and RAF Honily.
JLR hosted a series of charity bike rides through their dealer network, and several lucky prize-drawer winners spent a day at Honily riding round with members of the Sky Team, riding F8 Pinnies.
Some speak about a rumour JaguarLandRover have made a bid to buy the Silverstone race circuit.
They ( Tata ) already own RAF Gaydon and RAF Honily.
JLR hosted a series of charity bike rides through their dealer network, and several lucky prize-drawer winners spent a day at Honily riding round with members of the Sky Team, riding F8 Pinnies.
Yesterday on Strava: average 85, max 124.
124bpm is hardly high intensity training.
(I'd give you the numbers from February if my Strava-fu was up to it! )
A couple of days back - on FB - he mentioned a group going past him a little too quick, so he didnt waste energy getting on their wheels.
ESL - UMCA HAMR is AUK Mileater. The major difference is that the cost to enter is very low so folks join in with the AUK version. To rack up like Pat Kenney did 30,000 miles twice around the day job requires one hell of a lot of discipline. As does his total recorded distance which was s shade short of the million.
Chasing a record year the size that Tommy set was never going to be about having a nice time. It was always going to be about riding hard, suffering and doing what was necessary.
Whether Steve riding the hamster wheel has appeal or not to you is irrelevant. He says he wants the record - he has to do what necessary.
And for the records Steve if he trained is capable of a very good 24 hour and not one lagging 100 miles behind the first three.
I don't think it is likely Steve has fallen into that particular trap as, although he has done an immense amount of cycling, it has all been low intensity. In the early days of the attempt I recall someone on the Timetrialling forum saying that, at the heart rate levels he was operating, Steve would not be putting enough stress on his cardio system to maintain his fitness; he was effectively de-training. I've not followed that discussion but, if that is true, it may be that, after a year without stretching his cardio system, he might - paradoxically - have become unfit.
I don't know but, whatever is the cause, something I clearly not right and blundering on looks likely to cause him physical and also mental harm.
He's illDo you have some confirmation of this or is this a diagnosis based on observation? I too think the signs are bad and it looks like Steve have serious fatigue. Just wondering if there is independent verification?
His initial tests - taken back in October and November - had shown serious organ stress from high levels of muscle breakdown and an overly sugar-based diet, which was hindering his post-ride recovery.
And good for them!Quote... someone on the Timetrialling forum saying that
Well, we should take such theories seriously. Even more so if they are backed up by, say;
- The Daily Mail Motoring section,
- some bloke in the pub,
- my taxi driver, or
- a Youtube comment
Meow!
I fear you may have been scarred by your unhappy outing to the TT forum a couple of years ago but, amongst the usual detritus, in-jokes and tedious point-scoring, there are people on there who have quite a bit to contribute concerning the theory and practice of going as far / fast a possible from a given amount of effort on a bike. Lots of them have been cheering Steve on too.
Did you see the quote underneath the FB video?QuoteHis initial tests - taken back in October and November - had shown serious organ stress from high levels of muscle breakdown and an overly sugar-based diet, which was hindering his post-ride recovery.
This is someone who needs a long period of rest and recuperation, not being sent out to conquer cycling's Everest. The ride should have stopped when this was first discovered, not carried on for two more months. I'm frankly disgusted that no-one in the team has seen fit to pull the plug on the ride.
I've never seem Steve DNF, no matter how far off the leading pace he is. But throttling right back to recover wouldn't be a DNF.
I'd put more faith in the specialists he has seen than remote diagnosis via internet forum.
There is an assumption that Steve will give it another run in the future, if he decides to stop before August.
Maybe those are his plans. Maybe they aren't. Maybe this is it for him.
He has taken a year out of his life. He'll need to take another at least if he decided to start a third attempt. And if that fails, whither then?
Phew! It's been a tough year, well done Steve.
Happy new year to you all.
His initial tests - taken back in October and November - had shown serious organ stress from high levels of muscle breakdown and an overly sugar-based diet, which was hindering his post-ride recovery.
Steve will make a sensible decision. He's hard core but not stupid.
This is stating the obvious. Of course there has been serious organ stress. Nearly every PBP rider would show some signs of serious organ stress.
"A new concurrent attempt starts today 1st January 2016!"
I'm sure everyone here wishes the Steve the best, and that there is genuine concern for his welfare. And personally, if he is still aiming to better Tommy's total, I think the task in the next six months is now too great for any current cyclist to achieve. December 31st would be an ideal point to pause and recover.Agree with every word. :thumbsup:
But there does seem to be some selective interpretation of what is partial information from the FB post. 'Organ stress' does sound alarming, but the post says that he had 'medical tests' just last week which showed improvement. It also suggests that his old high-sugar diet was part of the problem. In that light, the change in diet that so many here have been critical of, was in his best interests healthwise, even if that resulted in a performance hit.
We may be sceptical about GPs' ability to understand endurance athletes, but I'd put more faith in the specialists he has seen than remote diagnosis via internet forum.
Whilst the individual support is no doubt helpful, the next attempt may be a different order of magnitude (particularly if he employs an "attending" support crew) and it may be done without the backing of as many commercial sponsors given Steve will have a record of trying and, for want of a better word, failing. It is also questionable whether the current sponsors will feel they have got a good return on their investment, at least a good enough return to provide similar levels of support in the future.
Lack of commercial backing might be particularly important. For example, if he can't get the backing of a bike supplier and has to supply them out of his own funds. In other words, there could be a need for up front capital expenditure, not just operating costs.
I don't imagine this is an easy decision for Steve. It is full of uncertainty and might end up with him never being able to launch a new attempt.
Steve will make a sensible decision. He's hard core but not stupid.
For all that "Team Steve" have obviously put in a lot of time and effort, viewed from the outside and judged by their interaction with the wider world they are at best amateurish and at worst dangerous and THEY NEED to realise it. Their failure to do so may have repercussions way beyond the practical aspects of the record attempt and directly impinge on Steve's long term health and wellbeing. None of the news management, health management, media management that they are responsible for shows any of the leadership I would expect to see in what - for want of a better term - I would expect in a professional team (those are the only aspects that we can see).
For all that "Team Steve" have obviously put in a lot of time and effort, viewed from the outside and judged by their interaction with the wider world they are at best amateurish and at worst dangerous and THEY NEED to realise it. Their failure to do so may have repercussions way beyond the practical aspects of the record attempt and directly impinge on Steve's long term health and wellbeing. None of the news management, health management, media management that they are responsible for shows any of the leadership I would expect to see in what - for want of a better term - I would expect in a professional team (those are the only aspects that we can see).
Are you saying they have put his health at risk? That they are responsible for his "health management"?
I think that's a bit strong; it was Steve that saw the doctor(s). Is there a doctor on the team? It wouldnt surprise me if Steve was just one-to-one with the medics, and noone was waiting outside to put him back on the bike.
OK cool. I actually think that a support team without medical qualifications would be acting _more_ professionally to leave such matters to Steve and the doctors, than to stick their oars in.For all that "Team Steve" have obviously put in a lot of time and effort, viewed from the outside and judged by their interaction with the wider world they are at best amateurish and at worst dangerous and THEY NEED to realise it. Their failure to do so may have repercussions way beyond the practical aspects of the record attempt and directly impinge on Steve's long term health and wellbeing. None of the news management, health management, media management that they are responsible for shows any of the leadership I would expect to see in what - for want of a better term - I would expect in a professional team (those are the only aspects that we can see).
Are you saying they have put his health at risk? That they are responsible for his "health management"?
I think that's a bit strong; it was Steve that saw the doctor(s). Is there a doctor on the team? It wouldnt surprise me if Steve was just one-to-one with the medics, and noone was waiting outside to put him back on the bike.
Actually, no.
What I am saying is that assessing their performance on those things I might have been able to there is no indication of (again for want of a better word) professional competence. That is not in itself a criticism, as they are volunteers doing what they can. BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH.
Am, as usual, vaguely depressed at the personal sniping by the usual posters on here :(
OK cool. I actually think that a support team without medical qualifications would be acting _more_ professionally to leave such matters to Steve and the doctors, than to stick their oars in.
I'll stay away from discussing the other roles of the team for now, apart from agreeing with you that they are indeed volunteers ...
It is so easy to climb out the woodwork on day 364 and say how the team should be organised.
As far as I am concerned, Steve has ridden the 4th longest distance ever on some exceptionally challenging roads in some exceptionally challenging conditions with an exceptionally challenging injury. Bravo!
I think it was a BMI clinic, rather than a bog standard GP's surgery....
OK cool. I actually think that a support team without medical qualifications would be acting _more_ professionally to leave such matters to Steve and the doctors, than to stick their oars in.
I'll stay away from discussing the other roles of the team for now, apart from agreeing with you that they are indeed volunteers ...
Indeed, I'm carrying on more for the benefit of any team members reading than any disagreement with you.
The most challenging aspect of leadership, whether it is team leadership or senior management, is recognising what skills are lacking in a team and how to compensate for that lack.
For example.
We have been shown the picture of Steve waiting in a GP's surgery. Had I been involved with the team I would have argued strongly for getting a respected specialist involved at every stage (ffs - Team Sky don't visit their GP, do they?) and I would have used the funds to pay if needed. The visit would have been at Steve's convenience - location could be almost anywhere in the whole bloody country. If it needed to be paid for, so be it. If it needed more dosh, I would have asked for it from people (and swapping hats here, I would have anted up as would many here).
And if they didn't have the time to arrange stuff like that, then they should again have bought borrowed or begged the resource to spend that time.
It is so easy to climb out the woodwork on day 364 and say how the team should be organised.
As far as I am concerned, Steve has ridden the 4th longest distance ever on some exceptionally challenging roads in some exceptionally challenging conditions with an exceptionally challenging injury. Bravo!
I think it was a BMI clinic, rather than a bog standard GP's surgery....
OK cool. I actually think that a support team without medical qualifications would be acting _more_ professionally to leave such matters to Steve and the doctors, than to stick their oars in.
I'll stay away from discussing the other roles of the team for now, apart from agreeing with you that they are indeed volunteers ...
Indeed, I'm carrying on more for the benefit of any team members reading than any disagreement with you.
The most challenging aspect of leadership, whether it is team leadership or senior management, is recognising what skills are lacking in a team and how to compensate for that lack.
For example.
We have been shown the picture of Steve waiting in a GP's surgery. Had I been involved with the team I would have argued strongly for getting a respected specialist involved at every stage (ffs - Team Sky don't visit their GP, do they?) and I would have used the funds to pay if needed. The visit would have been at Steve's convenience - location could be almost anywhere in the whole bloody country. If it needed to be paid for, so be it. If it needed more dosh, I would have asked for it from people (and swapping hats here, I would have anted up as would many here).
And if they didn't have the time to arrange stuff like that, then they should again have bought borrowed or begged the resource to spend that time.
The digestive system is an organ, which is what he seems to have had trouble with...I think the FB post needs to give a bit more clarity, because it might've been stated as serious because it required dietary change rather than a couple of Rennie!
I find the term "organ stress" rather odd, hopefully it's a bit mis-translation from Dr speak by whoever made the Facebook post. In 20+years in health care its a term I've never heard used and its rings quackery rather than medicine. Indeed a quick google of the term brings up a mix of cellular biology (which is not appropriate to the circumstances) and some of the more eccentric alternative therapies.
I'm sure exhaustion is an issue but organ stress?
It is so easy to climb out the woodwork on day 364 and say how the team should be organised.
As far as I am concerned, Steve has ridden the 4th longest distance ever on some exceptionally challenging roads in some exceptionally challenging conditions with an exceptionally challenging injury. Bravo!
And it's pretty easy to make snide remarks when you get so much training.
I've been solidly behind Steve and I'm one of the many to support him practically over the months. I've avoided criticising any of his tactics and kept my opinions of his team (which frankly have developed over those 365 days) under wraps.
There is a time to be upfront though, and I think this is it.
"A new concurrent attempt starts today 1st January 2016!"
Quote"A new concurrent attempt starts today 1st January 2016!"
.........wouldnt be the worst thing in the world, if he thinks he can do 220mpd for the current year, then having the option to carry on come August would be a wise move, maybe
#positivepost
I find the term "organ stress" rather odd, hopefully it's a bit mis-translation from Dr speak by whoever made the Facebook post. In 20+years in health care its a term I've never heard used and its rings quackery rather than medicine. Indeed a quick google of the term brings up a mix of cellular biology (which is not appropriate to the circumstances) and some of the more eccentric alternative therapies.
I'm sure exhaustion is an issue but organ stress?
To date, the team has shown no significant interest in adopting measures that would noticeably increase Steve's mileage.
Comparing Steve's current situation with Tommy's is not reasonable.
To date, the team has shown no significant interest in adopting measures that would noticeably increase Steve's mileage.
Except for the few recent occasions where he has been dropped back in MK to avoid a strong headwind riding back W/SW. Maybe this is just the beginning of the changes. Again, we don't know either way.Comparing Steve's current situation with Tommy's is not reasonable.
I agree it is comparing 1939 apples to 2015 oranges, but I'm merely pointing out it is just as unreasonable to say that it would be impossible for someone to do 225mpd+ for 221 days based on them having not got anywhere near that for 145 days before that. Except that Tommy did go out and do just that. It may be unlikely (but not impossible) that Steve will manage it, but I can see why he's not giving up on it yet.
Steve has the benefit of, amongst other things, better technology, better lights and better clothing. In his first attempt he was ~2800 miles ahead of Tommy's pace when he was hit by the moped. That may be due to having better conditions to ride in, but that's part of the element of luck that this record will require if you're going to do it based in the UK. The roads certainly weren't still icy in early May 1939 (before the daily averages jumped up), so it's not all down to the weather.
I've said pretty much all along that it'll be the warmer weather that will be make or break for Steve, and whether he has the legs for months of 240mpd+ averages (which his original schedules called for, even ~285mpd during July). We didn't get to see it in 2015 due to injury and subsequent loss of form so we've nothing to base it on.
As we are on the last day of the first challenge attempt I would like to thank all of the TEAM who have contributed to Steve's year including Roger who set up the money side of things and has given us regular updates (even since he stepped down ) I think if Steve was intending to stop at the end of today then an indication of that would have been posted. I suspect the TEAM have done an awful lot of work behind the scenes discussing the options for Steve. I think if Steve had accepted the idea of a mobile feeding /support vehicle that would have been in place a long time ago mindful of the healthy state of the finances. This would have ensured he wasn't lugging more gear than need by or spending time ordering /waiting for meals. Good luck to Steve in his endeavours whichever route he goes down. My thanks also to Jo for all her hard work. My best wishes to Steve and fellow supporters of Steve's challenge and hope 2016 is a good year for you.
It's important not to lose sight of what Steve has achieved in the past 364 days.
He is demonstrably one of the most accomplished endurance cyclists of all time, who can look on the legends of first half of the 20th century and justifiably think "I have proven myself a match for them". There is only one other living person who can also make that claim and he is about to take a record that has stood for longer than most of us have been on this planet.
It's fucking amazeballs. Awesome. I feel fortunate to have been witness to an epoch making attempt on a seemingly impossible dream. I will be toasting Steve's success this evening and wishing him a happy and healthy New Year, wherever it takes him.
It's important not to lose sight of what Steve has achieved in the past 364 days.
He is demonstrably one of the most accomplished endurance cyclists of all time, who can look on the legends of first half of the 20th century and justifiably think "I have proven myself a match for them". There is only one other living person who can also make that claim and he is about to take a record that has stood for longer than most of us have been on this planet.
It's fucking amazeballs. Awesome. I feel fortunate to have been witness to an epoch making attempt on a seemingly impossible dream. I will be toasting Steve's success this evening and wishing him a happy and healthy New Year, wherever it takes him.
Like many on this forum I have watched Steve's attempt with interest and admiration. It looks from the outside that his problems have been caused by two specific issues -
1. Diet - he assumed he could just eat as on an Audax for the whole year. I saw Steve during the attempt once at a stop. McDonnalds, although not a scientific study I also stalked Steve on Strava to see where he stopped during his rides. Most stops where garages and fast food places. He needs to eat a lot more goodness (minerals and vitamins) not from sports drinks but real food. Nuts, dried fruit, seeds are all high in calories and nutrients - Mcdonalds is high in sugar, fat and calories and little else.
2. He needs to ride faster to get the required rest each day, which is eight hours sleep or else chronic fatigue will set in. We have all burnt bright for a short time on PBP, LEL ... etc but for a whole year the pattern needs to be set and the rest is required. To achieve this Steve needs to stop riding long mileage for a while, have a complete rest and restart with a road racer type of training including short intense rides where he pushes his heart rate and lactic threshold. He will then increase his speed and be able to cruise at higher speeds. All my best long rides were done on the back of fast periods of riding. My preferred preparation for 400 and 600km rides is shorted club rides where I can speed up.
If Steve does not regroup and consider his options then (and I hope I am wrong) we will see a slow decline in mileage with the occasional big day or two followed by a dip.
Steve has nothing to prove to me. He has inspired me from my early days in Audax when during my second (and successful) attempt at the BCM I stopped at Whobley (sp?) on the second day. I ate all sorts of food I had purchased and Steve ate a block of cheese, when I asked him he said it was the only way to get the calories he required because he was going to ride to MK after the finish. We set off together and he dropped me while riding a low cadence on fixed at about 20mph.
So what ever you do Steve I will always admire you and you will have my support, but if you want the record some things have to change.
BB
Arry.
Let's say Steve wants to get 64,000
He's currently on 27,000 or thereabouts for the concurrent attempt
He has 219 days to go.
So (64,000 - 27,000)/219 = 169 miles a day. Or thereabouts.
This can be refined with more accurate distances, but it gives a sense that he is currently achieving daily distances around the mark he needs to slightly exceed that total.
Thanks for that swift reply Hillbilly. I reckon he'll do that (even with Doctor reccormennded ) rest days
Great and thanks again.
:thumbsup:
Why bother? That distance would end up 3rd or 4th in the all time list, depending on whether the latest bloke finishes his year. Steve is already 3rd and will be 4th when Kurt finishes.
In round numbers:
To beat Tommy (75,000 - 27,000)/ 219 = 219 miles every day
To beat Kurt (76,000 - 27,000)/ 219 = 223 miles every day
Why bother? That distance would end up 3rd or 4th in the all time list, depending on whether the latest bloke finishes his year. Steve is already 3rd and will be 4th when Kurt finishes.
In round numbers:
To beat Tommy (75,000 - 27,000)/ 219 = 219 miles every day
To beat Kurt (76,000 - 27,000)/ 219 = 223 miles every day
Those figures surely put the record beyond reach on this attempt. That being the case, I can only assume Steve has some other goal in mind. If that's the case then the new goal should be publicly stated. People can then decide themselves whether or not to continue their support in full knowledge of the facts.
That's another of Kurt's advantages - as he's self-funded he's under no obligation to explain anything to anyone and is a free agent (other than a couple of commercial sponsors who arrived mid-way and I'm sure aren't particularly bothered about their investment).
When did Tommy hit 100k miles and what average MPD does Steve need from his first attempt?It took Tommy exactly 500 days
I say first attempt, because to go for the 100k miles from his second attempt would mean riding beyond August 2016 until completion which would possibly bring him to the end of 2016. :oNo. Using UMCA official results up to 8th December, Jo's daily post after and assuming no improvement on the 115 so far today then Steve's 2015 total is an utterly astonishing 63481.4. For the 100k he would need a further 36518.6 in 135 days or 270.5mpd.
Can't happen surely? Anyone know the figures?
Can anyone on the team tell us what Steve's target distance is for the August attempt? And what weekly and monthly targets have they set to measure whether it is realistic?Interesting questions (although I'm pretty sure they are both rhetorical!). Some possible answers:
Those figures surely put the record beyond reach on this attempt. That being the case, I can only assume Steve has some other goal in mind. If that's the case then the new goal should be publicly stated. People can then decide themselves whether or not to continue their support in full knowledge of the facts.
Can anyone on the team tell us what Steve's target distance is for the August attempt? And what weekly and monthly targets have they set to measure whether it is realistic?Interesting questions (although I'm pretty sure they are both rhetorical!). Some possible answers:
A) either "The record" or "Godwin's figure (as targetted on 1st Jan 2015) with a stretch goal of Kurt's "
B) A bit odd; have any other recent attempts had such targets?
100,000 miles?
When did Tommy hit 100k miles and what average MPD does Steve need from his first attempt?
I say first attempt, because to go for the 100k miles from his second attempt would mean riding beyond August 2016 until completion which would possibly bring him to the end of 2016. :o
Can't happen surely? Anyone know the figures?
Why did the Team go cold on YACF / the audax community?
In fairness to the whole money ting. I don't recall there being any mention of donors receiving monthly updates, special dispensation, etc over non doners. You agree to give some money then you agree to give some money - end of.
Having said that now that the record looks very much out of reach, and Steve's only goal was to get the HAMR then those in the know should say what is going on. Because after today it won't make any sense. If Steve wants to better the record that he'll set at the the stroke of midnight he is better off starting afresh rather than carrying on.
Why did the Team go cold on YACF / the audax community?
Given some of what is posted, especially in this thread, are you really in the dark?
I dont recall Kurt making any such statements (or Miles, or Bruce, or IronOx ... ), and I dont recall you asking these questions back in December or after The Moped Incident.Can anyone on the team tell us what Steve's target distance is for the August attempt? And what weekly and monthly targets have they set to measure whether it is realistic?Interesting questions (although I'm pretty sure they are both rhetorical!). Some possible answers:
A) either "The record" or "Godwin's figure (as targetted on 1st Jan 2015) with a stretch goal of Kurt's "
B) A bit odd; have any other recent attempts had such targets?
Well, as I said above, there needs to be a get-out clause in every major project and if there is a specific target milage in mind for August, then what is it? It's pretty easy, by doing some sums, to find out whether the end target is still achievable.
Most of us, of course, have already done those sums. It would be good to see the Team's thinking on this.
Why did the Team go cold on YACF / the audax community?
Given some of what is posted, especially in this thread, are you really in the dark?
I am. Any publicly discussed venture, however worthwhile and laudable, will always attract a range of positive and negative commentary. The way to deflect and neutralise the negative and build from the positive is to attract and involve supporters by managed sharing of frequent positive news, not by hiding. Clamming up just encourages uncontrolled, uninformed, negative speculation. Like is posted here, especially in this thread. This is beginner-level PR.
How come you've gone all Dragons Den now?
The justifiable criticism and questions have come a long time after Steve's team climbed into their bunker. Their whole secrecy thing started ages ago.
I'll be interested to see if Kurt gets much recognition for his achievement.I would hope so, unless the cycling fraternity is so up their own as to be beyond sane consideration - it won't be many more days when, talking about Steve's ride for the day, the expression "that's X amount of miles to a Godwin" will be basically, completely irrelevant. There will most likely be a new name at the top of the register. And if anybody's got any nous whatsoever, they'll be looking at how he managed to do it.
I'm sure Roger the (ex)Moneyman posted about there being hostility/suspicion from the start by the team towards YACF members.
I'll be interested to see if Kurt gets much recognition for his achievement.I would hope so, unless the cycling fraternity is so up their own as to be beyond sane consideration - it won't be many more days when, talking about Steve's ride for the day, the expression "that's X amount of miles to a Godwin" will be basically, completely irrelevant. There will most likely be a new name at the top of the register. And if anybody's got any nous whatsoever, they'll be looking at how he managed to do it.
@Matt C: I don't know what the expression to "Go all Dragon's Den" means.I'm terribly sorry your honour. :D
But most important imo, is to get into a routine regarding when you are sleeping and riding. Helps the system to adjust and aids recovery - massively. I'm fairly certain Jo has got somewhere the start and finish times of Kurt for any given days rding. You look at how consistent they are compared to Steve's.
Why did the Team go cold on YACF / the audax community?
Given some of what is posted, especially in this thread, are you really in the dark?
I'm sure Roger the (ex)Moneyman posted about there being hostility/suspicion from the start by the team towards YACF members.
Hmm. I wonder why? ;D
I reckon if the team had to respond to all the "concerns" expressed on here they'd have no time left to support Steve. Hardly surprising if they feel the best policy is to stay well out of it...
In fairness to the whole money ting. I don't recall there being any mention of donors receiving monthly updates, special dispensation, etc over non doners. You agree to give some money then you agree to give some money - end of.I agree (except for "ting" - it's tHing !!! ).
As a start I'd say:-
Easiest routing possible, avoiding hills and as a bonus ride with a tailwind.
As a start I'd say:-
Easiest routing possible, avoiding hills and as a bonus ride with a tailwind.
It appears to me Kurt has ridden a more hilly route than Steve.
The HAMR leaderboard has mileage and total elevation for each rider.
Dividing the respective figures gives 21.8 feet per mile for Kurt, and 21.0 feet per mile for Steve.
Only a few inches in it, but the notion Kurt has taken the easier option of flat routes is false - assuming I've done the arithmetic correctly.
http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/
As a start I'd say:-
Easiest routing possible, avoiding hills and as a bonus ride with a tailwind.
It appears to me Kurt has ridden a more hilly route than Steve.
The HAMR leaderboard has mileage and total elevation for each rider.
Dividing the respective figures gives 21.8 feet per mile for Kurt, and 21.0 feet per mile for Steve.
Only a few inches in it, but the notion Kurt has taken the easier option of flat routes is false - assuming I've done the arithmetic correctly.
http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/
Yes, I saw that somewhere the other day too. I was surprised, but I've not followed Kurt very closely.
There was no contract drawn-up by sponsors/donors. Nobody made demands a year ago.
in fact anything at all would potentially be helpful to Kurt
in fact anything at all would potentially be helpful to Kurt
Bizarre. I'm at a loss to understand how. How could Kurt possibly gain anything from knowledge of Steve's approach? The most, and probably only, useful information - distance covered - is already public knowledge and updated continuously.
Meanwhile, Kurt and Alicia seem to be regularly posting pictures, videos, stories, news about the ups and downs of their progress all over social media and I don't see Steve's team using it to cunning strategic advantage.
Well, there you go.
As a start I'd say:-
Easiest routing possible, avoiding hills and as a bonus ride with a tailwind.
It appears to me Kurt has ridden a more hilly route than Steve.
The HAMR leaderboard has mileage and total elevation for each rider.
Dividing the respective figures gives 21.8 feet per mile for Kurt, and 21.0 feet per mile for Steve.
Only a few inches in it, but the notion Kurt has taken the easier option of flat routes is false - assuming I've done the arithmetic correctly.
http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/
(BTW - Do the donors know even a rough breakdown of expenditure and fund balance? I'm under the impression that they're not informed of this. AFAIK, the only info spread out is along the lines of FB saying things like "the money situation's okay", or "there'd be enough for X, Y, Z"...)
Of course, with commercial sponsors supplying equipment, our costs will go down. We are hoping that we raise more money than is needed and that this becomes a charity fundraiser. Beneficiaries are currently undecided, though cancer and children's charities are being considered.
There was no contract drawn-up by sponsors/donors. Nobody made demands a year ago.
I have no idea whether contracts were drawn up for sponsors. Do you have any insider knowledge on this?
And no-one's making "demands" now. We're simply asking, politely, to know what Steve's intentions are. Because we get no reply we keep on asking.
In any case a year ago no-one would have suspected there'd be such a dearth of information. Looking at the oneYearTimeTrial web site news section, the most recent entries are dated 1st Dec and 14th July...
It's a shame it's ended up like this.Good post LEE :thumbsup:
It seems that Steve IS the 4th greatest annual mile-muncher in the history of the Bicycle.
To be honest, given British weather and a broken ankle, he wouldn't need to cycle another mile in order to be, and remain, a cycling legend in my eyes.
I've always been of the opinion that Steve should take on the record in the way he, and only he, wants to break it.
There's no point in him breaking the record, by flying to more hospitable climes, and terrain, (for example) if he isn't satisfied with the record done that way.
I can't be bothered checking my posts on the matter but I HOPE I never gave Steve any advice on the best way to break the record. Ultimately I suspect he wants to do it his way or he won't consider it broken.
Go Steve!!!! .. in whatever you choose to do.
It seems that Steve IS the 4th greatest annual mile-muncher in the history of the Bicycle.
To be honest, given British weather and a broken ankle, he wouldn't need to cycle another mile in order to be, and remain, a cycling legend in my eyes.
From latest Strava entry: -
"Last day of the first attempt at the Highest Annual Mileage Record. Didn't exactly go to plan. But still 8 months and a week of fun left at attempt 2."
That's your answer folks.
One year done and 8 months and a week to go
This guy knows how I feel about that
Ozzy Osbourne I Don't Wanna To Stop HD
YOUTUBE.COM
Oh well. Happy New Year, Steve, and may it bring better luck than 2016.
Oh well. Happy New Year, Steve, and may it bring better luck than 2016.
Has Wowbagger got access to a TARDIS or is 2016 really that shit despite only being quarter of an hour old ;D
Steve seems to be a month out in his figures. Either a mis-type or wishful thinking?
I pay directly into a Steve personal account. Team at one stage wanted several to have access to this account -- I wrote a personal letter to Steve advising strongly against this. i have no knowledge whether he took this advice or not. At one stage I was convinced that I had a responsibility to donors which meant that I could not resign .... but in the end I decided that as you were all donating to Steve - provided I ensured that the funds got to him -- then I had no responsibility for what he did with them -- so then I felt able to step away.
And on Twitter:
"1 year done 8 months and a week to go #HAMR #HNY2016" along with an Ozzy Osbourne video.
Seems like Steve's doing all his own PR now.
Well, there you go.
You've always shown more self-control than me.
I have to say I'm not surprised by anything FB has said
Sorry, i phrased that very badly!There was no contract drawn-up by sponsors/donors. Nobody made demands a year ago.
I have no idea whether contracts were drawn up for sponsors. Do you have any insider knowledge on this?
Arry.
Let's say Steve wants to get 64,000
He's currently on 27,000 or thereabouts for the concurrent attempt
He has 219 days to go.
So (64,000 - 27,000)/219 = 169 miles a day. Or thereabouts.
This can be refined with more accurate distances, but it gives a sense that he is currently achieving daily distances around the mark he needs to slightly exceed that total.
I think it's time to break-off some of these issues into another thread. This one has been an unpleasant place for way too long. There are various reasons but two main ones:
- there is too much noise (if someone posts some number-crunching say, any discussion is interrupted by a dozen posts about panniers or Gibbons!).
- incompatible agendas. Its pretty obvious that some of us just aren't going to agree on a number of things, yet we keep posting our thoughts on those things. And then we argue about them. Again. And again ...
So I think I shall create a
2016 Puppies Rainbows and Unicorns thread
- if you see yourself more aligned to mattc-type posts, join in;
- if you want to post about how crap the team is, or how impossible the current task is (which are perfectly valid forum topics!), keep it here.
How does that sound???
That sounds like you wanting to create a space where you can dominate the discussion. If there has been a single source of nastiness in this thread then it has been from your posts.thanks for that. I dont agree with it, but that's life!
Maybe you have to live with the fact that not everyone will agree with your viewpoint.I am well aware of this fact. I tried to make that clear in my post - obviously not clear enough for you. Hey ho ...
For some folk, it is all about "Never quit, regardless!"
I strongly disagree with that approach for Steve's record attempt but it could be considered an 'honourable' attitude.
Just hypothetically, what happens when Steve doesn't quit? He could keep launching additional overlapping attempts, even when (as is now the case) he has no chance of breaking the record.
Steve's a big boy. I doubt he gives two hoots about the negativity on this thread, other people's opinions or what any of us say regarding the team.Although you dont explicitly say, this post is clearly in response to mine.
He's already said he listens/reads advice, digests it and rules most of it out.
I don't feel we need to 'protect' a grown man from peoples internet waffle. Steve is an exceptionally intelligent and driven human being, do you really think anything posted here makes any difference? I doubt it. I'm sure he is more capable than most of us in filtering out the wheat from the chaff with regard to his life!
Is every time an athlete pounds down the track doing the 100 metres or a time trialist hunches over the bars a failure if ultimately they don't set a new record?
Steve's challenge is a test of his endurance, his mental and physical fortitude, his commitment. We have already seen challengers come and go. We all gasped when Steve had the accident and marvelled at his determination and commitment to keep going.
Steve is clearly committed to carrying on with his second attempt and I, one of many, continue to follow, support and encourage him regardless of whether he manages to crack the record or not.
I understand that there are folk who don't understand the nature of a challenge, that success is not a guarantee, that Steve will suffer during the challenge and that all of this is part of what makes this a mega challenge.
Roll on Steve with the wind on your back and good fortune ahead.
In terms simply of achieving a new record, yes. He has not managed yet to post a new record.
Steve still has about 220 days left of attempt 2 AND as yet, I haven't seen any proof of any person ever accurately reading the tea leaves and predicting the future. Of course, if you can, please send me by PM the numbers for the lottery draws tonight and tomorrow night. You can have one half of my winnings as your share.
For Steve to succeed , rather than just riding on and on during 2016. A completely new approach is needed -- clearly this has to be talked thru with Steve -- all sorts of topics have to be considered -- pre start conditioning and training, nutrition, how to do the ride .. MK loops of 10/15/25 miles, drafting support, equipment .. bike .. clothing etc, sponsorship , PR, finances -- the list is not endless.. but it does gone and on .. the team posts that are important and who is best able to fill them , and who is the best team leader.. will these people be able to devote the time for a year .
Now Steve may not agree with this more structured approach - in which case forget it -- but if he wants the record - then I would suggest that this the way to give him the best chance.
Now Steve may not agree with this more structured approach - in which case forget it -- but if he wants the record - then I would suggest that this the way to give him the best chance.
PB, when somebody tackles the year record, it is a simple situation - success or failure.
Steve failed his first attempt, due to a drunk. It was obvious the instant his ankle broke.
Steve has also failed his second attempt. It has been marginal for months and now is beyond doubt. The deficit to Tommy's (and shortly Kurt's) record is beyond recovery within the next seven months.
Steve is wasting his time and resources (and those of his support crew, supporters and sponsors) when he could be properly preparing for a serious assault on the record that would actually have a significant chance of success.
PB, I'll buy you a beer for every week that Steve averages 220 or more miles a day. Steve needs to do at least that much distance every week until his 2nd attempt finishes in early August. It has been 2 months since Steve had a week that averaged more than 200 daily miles.
I notice that voluntary £1 donations "to support Steve Abraham's distance record attempt" are still in force on AUK. When do they stop? The graphic next to the option clearly states 2015. I think this needs to be removed or certainly explained as I'm sure many entrants have no idea what it's for or why it's continuing beyond 2015.
Write to the AUK Board about the donation scheme.
The Board has been very much in support of Steve and his record attempt
I agree that we need to be clear about what is happening.
As an AUK, Steve will continue to have my support from the sidelines whatever he decides to do.
Ok from the outside, we can rationalise in a different way, and Ican fully understand why some folk are now verbalising their concerns etc. That is undoubtedly their prerogative.
AUK can change the wording on the entry forms, I am sure it will still garner donations.
One thing that no doubt keeps Steve going is his Audaxing training over the years......to just keep going.
He may have the 100k in mind, and let's face it, he probably won't get the chance again to have a crack at that distance in one go.
We might even see him increasing his speed as the Spring and Summer dawn? As observers, we probably missed out knowing that the main time of concern was probably September when the dietary plan was being hatched, but took time to implement? Only Steve truly knows. We will just have to await the book. ;)
Given the title of the thread, it would be illuminating to know what is actually being attempted now though. Well it would for me, to help maintain an interest.
Given the title of the thread, it would be illuminating to know what is actually being attempted now though. Well it would for me, to help maintain an interest.
I'm pretty certain that we know exactly what is happening and that the confusion has been caused largely by some posters in this thread.
Steve started a second tilt at Tommy's record in August to run concurrently with his first tilt which was derailed by the moped incident. At the time there were few, very few dissenting voices. It is now January 1st. The first tilt is offucially over and the second tilt is under way still.
So much negativity here.Agreed :thumbsup:
If folk don't wish to continue supporting Steve's attempt on the record financially, that's up to them of course.
What I don't understand is all the grumping, whining and general bad mouthing going on.
Happy New Year everyone. Cheer up!
Oh, and allez Steve! :)
Steve's attempt has looked to me more like the work of local council. Carried out in an atmosphere of small-scale politics, and constantly slipping behind the schedule. The main things holding it together have been a conspicuous display of loyalty, and Steve's unflinching commitment to the task.
the restart made sense until mid November when the tummy/diet problems started.
Every day he does less than 225 miles it makes less sense.
If he really does think he has 8 months (197mpd-ish) then it's going to be a shock when the proper sums are done. I've seen 8 months quoted both on Strava and Twitter so it doesn't seem a simple typo.
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.
the restart made sense until mid November when the tummy/diet problems started.
Every day he does less than 225 miles it makes less sense.
If he really does think he has 8 months (197mpd-ish) then it's going to be a shock when the proper sums are done. I've seen 8 months quoted both on Strava and Twitter so it doesn't seem a simple typo.
It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.Not true.
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.
We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.
We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...
Is every time an athlete pounds down the track doing the 100 metres or a time trialist hunches over the bars a failure if ultimately they don't set a new record?
Steve has done something I would never even dream of doing because I wouldn't have the mental strength to tackle this challenge. However, the aim is to beat Tommy's record, and I'd assume the new record that Kurt is likely to set. Here is way I think this isn't going to happen, based on some simple calculations.
According to Jo's site Steve on the second attempt has an average speed of 14.5 mph, and the first attempt was ridden at 14.1 mph.
As of 30th Dec. Steve needs 215.6 miles per day to match Tommy's record.
Now if one assumes in a typical day 7½ hours is spent sleeping, 45 minutes is spent in the morning getting ready (showering, eating breakfast etc.) 45 minutes is spent in the evening eating dinner, uploading gpx files to Strava etc. & 45 minutes per day is spent not moving because of traffic lights, buying food, toilet stops etc. then this means Steve can cycle for 14¼ hours per day.
215.6 miles in 14¼ hours is an average speed of 15.1 mph. That's 0.6 mph faster than he's moving at the moment. That doesn't sound like much, but it means Steve finishes ~1,900 miles behind Tommy's record. Close but no cigar.
Now assuming Kurt does 76,000 miles Steve then needs 219.8 miles per day. Using the same assumptions as above results in Steve needing to average 15.4 mph to get beyond 76,000 miles.
Factual conclusion: Steve needs to get faster.
Jo's site also says Steve has spent 55% of the second attempt moving, which means on an average day he's spending 13 hours & 12 minutes cycling, compared to my assumption of 14 hours & 15 minutes. So to ride for 13 hours & 12 minutes per day & still beat Tommy's record he needs to be doing 16.3 mph. To get beyond 76,000 miles he needs to ride at 16.7 mph. Remember, at the moment he's doing 14.5 mph.
Factual conclusion: Steve needs to get a lot faster.
Now, my thoughts. Steve isn't going to increase his average speed by 2.2 miles per hour in order to match 76,000 miles because that's a massive increase, so therefore the attempt at the record is doomed. That isn't me being negative, and it isn't an attack on Steve. It's just my opinion based on some calculations.
PLUS ONE. Well done for such detailed calculations
My post was specific to LWAB's posts about the attempt - I dont see how your questions relate to that.Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.
We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...
Matt, your support for Steve is admirable - so what do you think (if indeed you wish to speculate - you may not) he is doing? He's taken in excess of 9 hours to do half the mileage he needs to do daily to match a record that Kurt will ( all things being equal) break in the next few days. Do you feel (I assume you must) that Steve will be able to overtake it come August? If yes, then what are your numbers?
I don't think anyone here wishes Steve ill (though not being an AUK/insider I don't know what undercurrents might be at play, and perhaps you do) but (and I'd be happy to be) I'd personally be astounded if he manges it. If, of course, that's still his aim, which brings us back to the "what's he doing now" question, and our difference of opinion as to whether financial support merits an explanation. I think it does. YMMV :)
Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.
We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...
Flawed analogy; if you're in that final, you'd love to beat Bolt, but itsnot very likely; you'd prefer to come second with a PB than come last, or pull up after 50m cos you things ain't going too well.Is every time an athlete pounds down the track doing the 100 metres or a time trialist hunches over the bars a failure if ultimately they don't set a new record?
It's all about beating the other guy and if Usain Bolt wins the gold medal then I imagine he's not too bothered about how long it took him to do it. In this event the other guy, at least for the next few days, is Tommy Godwin and if you don't exceed his distance then yes, you have failed.
Flawed analogy; if you're in that final, you'd love to beat Bolt, but itsnot very likely; you'd prefer to come second with a PB than come last, or pull up after 50m cos you things ain't going too well.I'm not sure I understand that. If it was me personally trying to do this then I would be happy to exceed 30,000 miles or whatever and for me that would be a massive achievement. I have no more chance of beating Godwin than I do of beating Bolt. Steve went into the attempt with the expectation of being able to beat Godwin. That is the standard by which the success or failure of the attempt at the end of the year is going to be judged.
so your target would be half the winning/record figure. You say Steve's is purely to be the best.QuoteFlawed analogy; if you're in that final, you'd love to beat Bolt, but itsnot very likely; you'd prefer to come second with a PB than come last, or pull up after 50m cos you things ain't going too well.I'm not sure I understand that. If it was me personally trying to do this then I would be happy to exceed 30,000 miles or whatever and for me that would be a massive achievement. I have no more chance of beating Godwin than I do of beating Bolt. Steve went into the attempt with the expectation of being able to beat Godwin. That is the standard by which the success or failure of the attempt at the end of the year is going to be judged.
My point is that Steve set out to break the record. He thought he could beat 'Bolt'. When he went into the challenge he didn't think he'd probably lose.
For a long while I felt diffident about expressing this criticism because, at the beginning and end of the day the guys who are helping out are volunteers who have given shedloads of their time and I am certain are doing their level best with the best of motivations. However responsibility ultimately ends at the team leader, clearly one of the most experienced long distance cyclists around, but without the critical skills needed to lead this effort.
For a long while I felt diffident about expressing this criticism because, at the beginning and end of the day the guys who are helping out are volunteers who have given shedloads of their time and I am certain are doing their level best with the best of motivations. However responsibility ultimately ends at the team leader, clearly one of the most experienced long distance cyclists around, but without the critical skills needed to lead this effort.
I understand where you are coming from but think that is a bit harsh. Really, the buck stops with Steve. It's his show and its up to him who he has in his team to help him. All the indications, eg from FidgetBuzz's posts, are that Steve decides how he will do things, not anyone on the team.
One point is that, in my discussions with Steve before he started, I tried to emphasise how important the role of Manager / DS / crew chief was, and his response suggested that he didn't quite see it. With that in mind, it's somewhat surprising that the two most prominent people in his team don't come from either an audax or, indeed, time trialling background. However, I've no idea what the process was that led to him appointing people - and it may be that others he approached weren't able to make the time commitment. I felt there was a very good candidate for the Manager role, who I won't embarrass by naming!
My post was specific to LWAB's posts about the attempt - I dont see how your questions relate to that.Because Steve is chucking away a realistic shot of actually getting the year record in favour of continuing this quixotic restart.I think you posted a few days back all the things he needed to do for a restart to succeed.
We both know that they will not all happen; therefore I conclude you are dedicated to (at least) 7 months of negativity. sounds pretty miserable to me, but each to his own ...
Matt, your support for Steve is admirable - so what do you think (if indeed you wish to speculate - you may not) he is doing? He's taken in excess of 9 hours to do half the mileage he needs to do daily to match a record that Kurt will ( all things being equal) break in the next few days. Do you feel (I assume you must) that Steve will be able to overtake it come August? If yes, then what are your numbers?
I don't think anyone here wishes Steve ill (though not being an AUK/insider I don't know what undercurrents might be at play, and perhaps you do) but (and I'd be happy to be) I'd personally be astounded if he manges it. If, of course, that's still his aim, which brings us back to the "what's he doing now" question, and our difference of opinion as to whether financial support merits an explanation. I think it does. YMMV :)
(not meaning to be evasive; this thread is about so many issues that I think people need to be very specific to avoid confusion and ambiguity)
Last day of the first attempt at the highest annual mileage record. Didn't exactly go to plan. But still 8 months and a week of fun left of attempt 2
My post was specific to LWAB's posts about the attempt - I dont see how your questions relate to that.
(not meaning to be evasive; this thread is about so many issues that I think people need to be very specific to avoid confusion and ambiguity)
I thought I asked specific questions.
It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.Not true.
Working backwards from the restart Steve's daily average peaks at 192.2 for the 77 days in the run up to Aug 8, it seems logical to include those days in a theoretical 100k. Taking those 77 days plus the current attempt gives an average of 191.3 over 223 days. Steve would need to average 207.7 for the rest of the rebooted attempt plus a further 57 days to take the 100K record. That's the original Tommy Godwin average plus a few minutes per day which is a whole lot more viable than the Searvogel average plus nearly an hour he needs for the year record.
...But that would take him to mid-December 2016, or a smidge under 2 years pretty much constant riding. I know Steve loves being on the bike, but, really?Could it be that his intention is now not to break any record, but simply to do nothing but cycling for evermore, every day - for ever?
It appears to me Kurt has ridden a more hilly route than Steve.
The HAMR leaderboard has mileage and total elevation for each rider.
Dividing the respective figures gives 21.8 feet per mile for Kurt, and 21.0 feet per mile for Steve.
Only a few inches in it, but the notion Kurt has taken the easier option of flat routes is false - assuming I've done the arithmetic correctly.
http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/
Suspect to beat his 2015 mileage meaning doing about 180 + a day till August which think he can. Good luck Steve with this :thumbsup:
From day 91 to day 152 we can see that Steve lost 7,500 miles due to the accident. Further recovery time will have been the cause of some or all of the remaining 4,000 miles short of Tommy. Quite how many of those miles would not have been lost without the accident and then the adjusting to a new diet we cannot be sure. It seems that Steve has shown that he is capable of achieving his target given good health and no broken bones.
Which is a great personal target but ain't a record attempt. As soon as it stops being a record attempt, it's just a ride. A bloody long one, but really becomes just for personal pride.
As LWaB pointed out, he was managing to stick to the schedule only at the expense of sleep, he wasn't going as fast as he had planned to so was having to ride longer than planned, this wasn't going to be sustainable and (from memory) the cracks were just starting to show (later starts, slower average speeds, some shorter days).
I was going to have a more thorough delve into the data (including average speeds) next week when the holidays are over.
Which is a great personal target but ain't a record attempt. As soon as it stops being a record attempt, it's just a ride. A bloody long one, but really becomes just for personal pride.
Just like Audax then ;D
The post mortems are premature with 7 months to go, while TG is well behind Godwin's average, he is well in front of Godwins actual milage for this point. I know the target is Kurt's mileage but if Godwin could increase has daily distances in the 2nd half of the year then hopefully so can TG.
The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.
The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.
The post mortems are premature with 7 months to go, while TG is well behind Godwin's average, he is well in front of Godwins actual milage for this point. I know the target is Kurt's mileage but if Godwin could increase has daily distances in the 2nd half of the year then hopefully so can TG.
The forum seems very keen to see the attempt dead and buried and yesterdays 200miles, the first in a while seems to have gone unnoticed.
These numbers are mind-boggling!
Any chance if Steve breaking TG's 100,000 record?
It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.Not true.
Working backwards from the restart Steve's daily average peaks at 192.2 for the 77 days in the run up to Aug 8, it seems logical to include those days in a theoretical 100k. Taking those 77 days plus the current attempt gives an average of 191.3 over 223 days. Steve would need to average 207.7 for the rest of the rebooted attempt plus a further 57 days to take the 100K record. That's the original Tommy Godwin average plus a few minutes per day which is a whole lot more viable than the Searvogel average plus nearly an hour he needs for the year record.
Firstly, the aim of the ride was the HAM'R - 75,065 miles in 365 days. The 100k record (in 500 days) was secondary. On the first attempt, Steve managed 65,565 miles, which leaves 34,435 miles in the remaining 135 days - 255 miles a day. Not going to happen. If he really wished to run a second attempt on the 100k contemporaneously with the second HAM'R attempt (I can't see why he would, but this is Steve!!), he has 73,081 miles to match Tommy in the remaining 353 days - 207 miles every day, as you say. It's certainly possible, but his speed needs to increase considerably above anything he's achieved so far (see several posts passim). I'm not sure if the 100k is being run under the UCMA rules, or is effectively unofficial - I haven't found any reference to it on the UCMA site. Anyway, Steve's initial target distance for HAM'R was 80,000 miles. At that pace (219mpd, which seems well beyond the possible now!)), Steve would have been aiming to break the 100k barrier in 457 days. To achieve that along with the second HAM'R attempt would now need 235.7mpd. Of course, beating it by one day would be sufficient - call that 208mpd from today. But that would take him to mid-December 2016, or a smidge under 2 years pretty much constant riding. I know Steve loves being on the bike, but, really?
Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.
TimC did this very helpful analysis:It would seem that the 100k record is now not possible either.Not true.
Working backwards from the restart Steve's daily average peaks at 192.2 for the 77 days in the run up to Aug 8, it seems logical to include those days in a theoretical 100k. Taking those 77 days plus the current attempt gives an average of 191.3 over 223 days. Steve would need to average 207.7 for the rest of the rebooted attempt plus a further 57 days to take the 100K record. That's the original Tommy Godwin average plus a few minutes per day which is a whole lot more viable than the Searvogel average plus nearly an hour he needs for the year record.
Firstly, the aim of the ride was the HAM'R - 75,065 miles in 365 days. The 100k record (in 500 days) was secondary. On the first attempt, Steve managed 65,565 miles, which leaves 34,435 miles in the remaining 135 days - 255 miles a day. Not going to happen. If he really wished to run a second attempt on the 100k contemporaneously with the second HAM'R attempt (I can't see why he would, but this is Steve!!), he has 73,081 miles to match Tommy in the remaining 353 days - 207 miles every day, as you say. It's certainly possible, but his speed needs to increase considerably above anything he's achieved so far (see several posts passim). I'm not sure if the 100k is being run under the UCMA rules, or is effectively unofficial - I haven't found any reference to it on the UCMA site. Anyway, Steve's initial target distance for HAM'R was 80,000 miles. At that pace (219mpd, which seems well beyond the possible now!)), Steve would have been aiming to break the 100k barrier in 457 days. To achieve that along with the second HAM'R attempt would now need 235.7mpd. Of course, beating it by one day would be sufficient - call that 208mpd from today. But that would take him to mid-December 2016, or a smidge under 2 years pretty much constant riding. I know Steve loves being on the bike, but, really?
[my bold]
(I havent checked these numbers!)
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.
Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.
You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)
http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)
After hearing Idai stress a number of times that Steve does have a plan (and, note, that he plans to share it), I went back to examine Steve's original mileage schedule for the 1st Attempt, see: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation)
From my calculations it does appear that if he can stick to those planned mileages until 7 August 2016, he will have - just - surpassed Godwin and will be nip and tuck with Kurt's likely total. (I could be wrong - someone may wish to double check.)
That is a very big if, though. The proposed mileages for the summer months are enormous, exceeding what Godwin and Bennett were riding in their crazy summer of '39 when they had pacers, motorised support and may have been drafting lorries all along. With hindsight, it's odd that there were so few raised eyebrows at the schedule when Steve published it back in December 2014. His speeds thus far do not suggest that those summer mileages are possible, but then again, he's had terrible misfortunes and he evidently thinks he will ride himself into greater speeds, as originally planned.
One possibility is that the original schedule has been adapted, with Steve 'merely' matching Godwin through the summer, and riding closer to 200 mile averages in the winter and spring.
Either way, he'll have to do something that he's never done before, something neither Godwin or Kurt have done, but I suppose that's exactly what this whole record breaking business is all about.
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.
Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.
You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)
http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.
Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.
You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)
http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)
That's a really interesting interview, and I don't think anyone can question Idai's commitment to the record having listened to it! Stuff like that does make the whole thing more personal and more engaging than web pages and charts and discussions on here. It will be very interesting to hear Steve's revised schedule when he gets around to sharing it, though I agree that it's unlikely to be very much modified from his original other than smoothing out the peaks and troughs. It's particularly good to hear that he's now feeling well and that a reassessment of the chances of success will be made at the end of the month in the light of his progress having returned to health. I won't restate my position; I'm prepared to accept that Steve's not riding himself into greater illness and, that being the case, I'll watch with interest - and reserve the right to comment based on the numbers achieved. Notwithstanding that, I wish Steve all the luck and following winds he can get, and I really hope he can stick two fingers up to all of us come August.
What a thoroughly informative, balanced and sensible outlook from Idai - that has really helped clarify things, thank you for that, Idai and Jack.
Best wishes to Steve and all his supporting team - let's hope things go to plan during January and continue to do so thereafter.
Chapeau!
It wasn't so good hearing of volunteers not delivering on their promises
This forum is full of advise how things should be improved but without the actual help. Let us hope the Winter isn't a Winter! And Steve survives it well and is able to push himself (as no doubt he'll have to ) when the weather improves and he is able to find the speed he'll need along with any improvements to the statergy that are able to be put in place.
Good luck Steve and TEAM keep up the good work. :thumbsup:
It wasn't so good hearing of volunteers not delivering on their promises
This forum is full of advise how things should be improved but without the actual help. Let us hope the Winter isn't a Winter! And Steve survives it well and is able to push himself (as no doubt he'll have to ) when the weather improves and he is able to find the speed he'll need along with any improvements to the statergy that are able to be put in place.
Good luck Steve and TEAM keep up the good work. :thumbsup:
...but entirely unsurprising to anyone who has ever had experience of such things. cf my comments previously about the effectiveness of the team, despite their best intentions and efforts.
My ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come 😊
Comment from Steve on FB just now...QuoteMy ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come 😊
Comment from Steve on FB just now...QuoteMy ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come 😊
Interesting. was the exaggeration our interpretation of the snippets reluctantly shared amid the silence, or the intended effect of the snippets?
There was no Kidney failure....apparently they were under serious stress, but not 'failed' :)
Comment from Steve on FB just now...QuoteMy ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.
Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.
You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)
http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)
Most of them are written in the 3rd person i.e. to make it clear that its a team member writing. So I'd be prettty sure this one is either written or dictated by Steve!Comment from Steve on FB just now...QuoteMy ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come
Just wondering out loud who writes his Facebook posts?
I was starting to find it difficult to feel involved with the record attempt and this interview has helped hugely with that.This
Steve’s entire bike riding life has been aiming towards this record and I am going to continue my wholehearted support.And this.
Anyone else want to speculate? :P
As some will know I've been covering the year record on The Bike Show podcast and will be returning to the subject imminently.Great stuff Jack, thanks for letting us hear Idai in his unedited glory; crikey that guy can talk, can't he? :)
Among the interviews I've done is one with Idai from Steve's team, on 31 December. It was by phone and pretty long. The poor quality of the phone audio means that only edited excerpts will make it into the podcast. But given the interest on the forum in Steve's well being and his plan for the remainder of his record attempt, and the fact that his team have not been prioritising communications with the outside world (perhaps understandable, given the amount of other tasks they have to do), I thought it might help if I shared a fuller recording of our conversation.
You can find it here (beware, it runs to 33 minutes!)
http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3 (http://traffic.libsyn.com/thebikeshow/idai_20151231.mp3)
Comment from Steve on FB just now...QuoteMy ill health has been highly exaggerated in certain quarters for effect! I'm feeling fine, Hoppo has got all the bases covered and the team are working well as a unit, which you will see from the mileages in the days and weeks to come
Just wondering out loud who writes his Facebook posts?
I don't suppose we will be told, but Steve's creatinine level would be of interest wrt his kidney functionality. I know a bit about this sort of thing, for the wrong reasons. In a healthy male, creatinine (the waste product from muscle breakdown) should be at 0.7 to 1.2 mg/dL.You are using USAnian units rather than SI units in use in most of the world.
Kidney failure isn't a binary thing. You can, and do survive with much higher levels than this. Typically, dialysis patients range from about 6 to 12mg/dL.
I was going to have a more thorough delve into the data (including average speeds) next week when the holidays are over.
The next thing I did was to think about how many hours I’d expect to spend riding, not including stops, on a typical day for whichever given month. For example, I thought that spending 12-14 hours would be about right for a typical January day, on a daily basis. Whereas in June, riding for 16-18 hours would be about right. I based the figures on my years of experience of all year round long distance cycling.
I don't suppose we will be told, but Steve's creatinine level would be of interest wrt his kidney functionality. I know a bit about this sort of thing, for the wrong reasons. In a healthy male, creatinine (the waste product from muscle breakdown) should be at 0.7 to 1.2 mg/dL.You are using USAnian units rather than SI units in use in most of the world.
Kidney failure isn't a binary thing. You can, and do survive with much higher levels than this. Typically, dialysis patients range from about 6 to 12mg/dL.
The breakdown of muscle to creatine and its conversion to creatinine is not a linear process. The levels of creatinine in both plasma and urine are affected much more by renal function than muscle breakdown.
The biggest single marker of acute muscle breakdown is myoglobin in urine, although it's unlikely you'd find a lab willing / able to measure it in the 21st century. It's generally a qualitative investigation.
Creatine Kinase levels can give an indication of muscle breakdown- particularly if you are looking at the MM isoenzyme- however in the case of someone like Steve I'd wonder if he's 'normalised' to a 'steady state' and his enzyme results would be back into the reference range for a heathy adult?
The creatinine is simply a marker of the renal damage - in itself it's a pretty benign substance. The damage is to the renal tubules through a variety of chemical and physiological effects - which is why both hydration and mineral intake are vital factors for endurance athletes.
Don't follow that these are USAninan units? The measurements are given in metric units, even if a deci-litre (100 ml) is not an SI graduation.
Is there any information on how long Steve spends not moving during the day? Reducing this might be one of the more readily available means of gaining time while maintaining sleep.
He has already spent the contingency on the losses due to illness and diet adaptation. That's the biggest reason why I think a rest and restart will ultimately be required. There's no scope for any further slippage in the current attempt.
But since a restart would be best made on 1/1/17 (to keep the 'calendar year' purists happy) he may as well have a go as there would be enough time to recover from August 7th 2016 until then anyway. Then, health aside, the only question is whether Steve would be up for another 12 months in the saddle after doing pretty much 19 months on and 5 months off.
Correct - most of the worl use molar unitsDon't follow that these are USAninan units? The measurements are given in metric units, even if a deci-litre (100 ml) is not an SI graduation.
I'm guessing that the leftpondians use mg/dl and we use mmol/l (or similar). A source of confusion familiar to sufferers of dire beaties.
... but it also suggests that there is plenty of scope for improvement by cutting down on stopped time during the day.
Anything new to add LWaB?
It's good to see this thread has now calmed down btw :thumbsup:
The mindless 'Go Steve' chant is putting Steve into the same position he was in at the end of last year - a failed attempt on the year record.
It's good to see this thread has now calmed down btw :thumbsup:
Slightly. For about a day. ::-)
Doing that interview has had as much effect as Chris Froome publishing his data; nothing will silence the hard-core septics.
The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.
After climbing a great hill, one only finds that there are many more hills to climb.
He's decided to continue for the time being whilst there still is a chance of beating the record. The interview made it clear that if you don't try then you can't possibly succeed. The feelings of regret for not even giving it a shot could be overwhelming. I can understand why throwing in the towel with no certain plan of trying again in the future would be very difficult.
So whilst he continues I wish him well and that he remains safe. I think it's going to be extremely difficult to achieve, the numbers are stacked against him, but maybe he can and there is still a small chance he can succeed.
Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....
Could it be that his intention is now not to break any record, but simply to do nothing but cycling for evermore, every day - for ever?
It's interesting that Foghat was widely vilified (at least, by those who are too myopic and fanboiish to see the truth in everything else he/she wrote) for this comment:Unless breaking the record wasn't really ever that important compared with just having a year or two off work cycling all day.....
While no-one even responded to Ben T's comment:Could it be that his intention is now not to break any record, but simply to do nothing but cycling for evermore, every day - for ever?
“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."
Possibly because both are unfounded speculation that are flatly contradicted by what Steve himself has stated.
Possibly because both are unfounded speculation that are flatly contradicted by what Steve himself has stated.
I suspect that the cause of that speculation may have been at least partly the last couple of paragraphs of this Guardian interview, which was also what contributed to my own recent period of doubt about the undertaking.
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/dec/25/steve-abraham-cycling-year-in-the-saddle-for-record-chaser
More from Idai here on the CTC website:
http://www.ctc.org.uk/article/campaigns-guide/steve
Includes elaboration on 'the plan', at least in terms of target mileages:
“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."
“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."If he is targeting 205 daily miles by March, that can't be the total mileage/ days since restart. It has to be targeting consistently hitting 205 daily miles for a week.
After that date, Steve would have to cover stupid daily distances (somewhere around 250? Haven't crunched the numbers yet) to actually get the record.
The indications are that even the lower of these target rates is not sustainable by Steve for any great period of time, let alone for 5 months straight. Who on Team Steve is doing the arithmetic?
...
If he has countenanced a 3rd attempt, one with a radically different approach, i.e. not 'audax style', more Kurt style with more support on the road, then it does seem irrational to persist with this attempt. The time would better spent getting organised, recovered, getting in some specific training so he starts in the best possible condition for the task ahead, refining his diet, and setting everything in place for 1 Jan 2017.
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.
Take off the 54 miles that he's lost in the three days that he's had so far... It's nearly two months since Steve last did two consecutive rides of more than 202.5 miles - averaging 202.5 in January seems pretty unlikely (especially since Steve didn't leave Goole until 10:30am this morning).
Jan/Feb: 31+29 days = 60 days. 13.5 hours a day @ 15 mph (0.4mph speed increase on what he is doing now) = 202.5 miles a day = 12150 miles for Jan/Feb
Doing the Mersey Roads 24 and PBP will not have helped either. If there's another attempt in 2017 then it would be interesting to see if LEL featured as that might slot in to the plan a bit better.
Before Steve got crashed out, he was already riding slower than he expected and increasing his hours to compensate.
He hasn't been able to do 14+ hours repeatedly at any point recently. Every time he does, he has another short day or two. That cycle has repeated for virtually all of last year. There haven't been any indications that it is changing.
“He is working to get [his average riding distance] back up to 205 miles per day again by March 2016 – and then even higher before August, when he is set to finish his attempt."
If he is targeting 205 daily miles by March, that can't be the total mileage/ days since restart (that would require 230? daily from now). It has to be targeting consistently averaging 205 daily miles for a week.
After that date, Steve would have to cover impossible daily distances (somewhere around 250? Haven't crunched the numbers yet) to actually get the record.
I don't think he entered the challenge with the right fitness levels at all, he certainly changed a lot during the first few months of the challenge.
...
The history of extreme endurance challenges (i.e. efforts lasting months, not a fortnight) shows a common theme:
participants expect to lose weight, and bulk-up in advance accordingly.
Steve told me at the 24 that he didn't have time to ride prior to the event, and that left him unprepared. At 6.45 in this interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJES8l1YwoI
Rest and recover, start a proper training program and actually get back to cruising at evens. Five months would be tight to do that, considering that Steve wouldn't have ridden quickly for more than two years. Training for distance is easier and quicker than training for speed.
Steve told me at the 24 that he didn't have time to ride prior to the event, and that left him unprepared. At 6.45 in this interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJES8l1YwoI
He told me that before he started. Steve rode comparatively little distance (for him) in 2014. Talk about stacking the odds against yourself.
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.
True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.
The history of extreme endurance challenges (i.e. efforts lasting months, not a fortnight) shows a common theme:
participants expect to lose weight, and bulk-up in advance accordingly.
I'm sure they know there is some performance hit at the start. If anything, cycling may be the least "weight-sensitive" transport mode. Especially on routes that are as flat as you can find.
(most recent - the ex-soldier who walked the Himalayan chain, currently on telly-box. )
I was wondering the same. Initially I thought he meant average to date (i.e. the Godwin line). But to go from here to the Godwin line by March is a very tall order, and as you say, he's currently around 190 mpd since the reboot, not 195.
Confused.
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.
True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.
If he was able to do >14 hours, his average speed would come down significantly. It always does as greater tiredness sets in. So it then needs more extra hours than thought, and so on.
The single key metric which Steve should have, updated on a daily basis, is the average number of miles he needs to do per day from now to hit his target.
Steve hasn't shown that he could sustain days much longer than 14 hours, even when fresh.
True, but doing days >14 hours wasn't in the early stages of his plan and he was supposed to build up to that in the summer, but the long build up was scuppered by the moped incident. His inability to do >14 hours in the subsequent recovery time, illness and diet adaptation (and then autumn/winter again) doesn't prove he won't be able to do it this spring/summer.
If he was able to do >14 hours, his average speed would come down significantly. It always does as greater tiredness sets in. So it then needs more extra hours than thought, and so on.
Actually, Steve *is* doing >14 hour days at the moment, if you look at the total time elapsed rather than the moving time.
Jan 1: 203 miles, total time: 15:38hrs (moving time: 12:34hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/461088836
Jan 2: 191 miles, total time: 14:19hrs (moving time: 12:32hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/461844934
Jan 3: 163 miles, total time: 14:33hrs (moving time: 11:09hrs) https://www.strava.com/activities/462749057
Getting faster is clearly only one of his challenges. Reducing the time off the bike another one. Doing both at the same time looks like a formidable task. Lengthening the total time of a day out offers little extra potential over the long run, as that is probably not sustainable given the need for sleep.
https://www.strava.com/activities/461088836
As fitness, conditioning and weather improves, I expect to be able to ride for longer without stopping, so although there is a 4 hour difference of riding time on the schedule between summer and winter, I expect there to be more like an hour or two difference between a days ride as I’d spend more time stopped to take shelter and have a warm drink in the winter.
"To take advantage of the low traffic volumes in the early morning, I will get up at 4am, aiming to be on the road before 5am, preferably 4:30. This will enable me to use the fast main roads out of Milton Keynes.
Traffic tends to pick up at around 8am, so I’d have been on the road for at least 3 hours by then. By that time I should be away from major towns and hopefully heavy traffic and it would also be a good time to stop for a cup of tea and some breakfast.
Early morning starts will mean that I get maximum benefit of daylight. In June at the summer solstice day breaks at around 4am and the sun sets at around 10pm, which coincides well with my scheduled hours on the road."
Riders who are completely stuffed can take a long time to recover. Ossie never regained his full speed. Rest and recover, start a proper training program and actually get back to cruising at evens. Five months would be tight to do that, considering that Steve wouldn't have ridden quickly for more than two years. Training for distance is easier and quicker than training for speed.
If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.
Agreed.If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.
That's something I hadn't considered. If Bruce doesn't have any bad luck and pushes on through the year then he's got the capacity to push it out a long way, possibly beyond Steve no matter how long he waited/trained/etc before a restart. If anything that makes the argument for Steve continuing on the current attempt all the stronger as it may be his only hope of ever holding the record. (This depends on whether Steve's goal is to break Tommy's record (and maybe Kurt's) or to be the current record holder even if for a short period.)
This thread is just the best thread ever on the internet. Of all time.
There are those who feel so compelled to post it's just uncontrollable beyond words and there is everybody else who are so irreconcilably compelled to read everything that ever gets written, we can never keep away.
Gotta laugh :)
Woke up feeling rough and as if I was coming down with an illness. Voice got very croaky, got sleepy, stopped for rest then felt a bit less sleepy for a while. ctd in comments
Agreed.If he makes it through his year, I'd expect Bruce to put some noticeable distance on Kurt and Steve would need to hit that target with something to spare. Ice is something that neither Kurt or Bruce need to worry about. 76,500 miles wouldn't be enough.
That's something I hadn't considered. If Bruce doesn't have any bad luck and pushes on through the year then he's got the capacity to push it out a long way, possibly beyond Steve no matter how long he waited/trained/etc before a restart. If anything that makes the argument for Steve continuing on the current attempt all the stronger as it may be his only hope of ever holding the record. (This depends on whether Steve's goal is to break Tommy's record (and maybe Kurt's) or to be the current record holder even if for a short period.)
So LWAB's plan - supported by Greenbank's analysis - results in Steve putting 3 years into never taking the record.
Go LWAB and his planning!
At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.LWAB is the one pissing on Steve and the Team's current efforts.
At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.LWAB is the one pissing on Steve and the Team's current efforts.
Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.
If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.
Amongst the reformulations and restatements, there are some insightful gems to be found.
This morning:QuoteWoke up feeling rough and as if I was coming down with an illness. Voice got very croaky, got sleepy, stopped for rest then felt a bit less sleepy for a while. ctd in comments
I've listened, of course.So LWAB is happy for a review of progress at the end of Jan. Seems reasonable enough.
I'm glad to know that a review of progress and the possibility of stopping is on the cards at the end of January. They should have done that at the end of last year but hey ho.
How about letting them give this their best shot until Jan 31st? It seems the obvious course, for any reasonable supporter of this record attempt.
At least stating a plan and defending the reasoning is better than sitting at the side making snide comments.LWAB is the one pissing on Steve and the Team's current efforts.
Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.
If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.
How about letting them give this their best shot until Jan 31st? It seems the obvious course, for any reasonable supporter of this record attempt.
Once again you are trying to control what is said on a public forum.
Your analysis confirms that LWAB's plan is no better than the team's current one.
So if the current attempt fails and either Steve gives up completely or Bruce pushes the record out to something Steve can't achieve are you going to sum it up as "So the Team's plan results in Steve putting 20 months into never taking the record" ?You should read LWAB's comments on the fundamental binary success/faliure nature of the attempt.
Amongst the reformulations and restatements, there are some insightful gems to be found.
Oh absolutely, I wasn't kidding.
Just going back what Wow was saying [and this is not addressed to Wow] - you know, I sometimes think that it's us here on the internet, that like to marry the authenticity of the challenge to our man Steve from MK, as if it's all his precious challenge and somehow if others take up the challenge they are kind of imposters and not really to be respected. We will respect them, but actually....almost kind of begrudgingly, like through gritted teeth. I really think that the feeling likely to be more prevalent here than it is in Steve's mind. I really wonder if he cares that much actually.
He's a curious animal, we all are in our own ways, and he's a very different kind of individual to me, way different, I have little in common with him, he's way too out there for me as regards cycling, far too dedicated and single minded than I would ever want to be, but I really don't think he does bitterness or acrimony that well. That others have come along in the wake of his enthusiasm probably gives him more satisfaction than we might to acknowledge.
The irony, in 'the other thread' something about trolling and petty sniping.What's up - has someone upset you? We can't have that.
This is from a dramatic monolog by the British Victorian poet, Robert Browning. The speaker is a late Renaissance Florentine artist by the name of Andrea del Sarto. He's, to put it bluntly, a remarkable craftsman but lacking in soul, vision, spiritual passion. Momentarily, he points to paintings by the great painters Raphael and Michelangelo, boasting that he could come closer to "perfection" than either of these two immortal, renowned painters. But then he quickly recognizes his own weakness and acknowledges why he's inferior to Raphael or Michelangelo: "Ah" (meaning "Let's not fool ourselves"), "A man's reach" (meaning his dream, or goal) should exceed his grasp (the material things that you can see, touch, and possess--minimal trouble and money). Most parents want their child to have more than a car, a house or an iPod. Be a doctor, a concert pianist, President of the U.S.A. Andrea can never be a great artist because painting for him comes too easily. He's lazy and has no reason to challenge himself. He "has it made" already.
His pictures have photographic realism and will appeal to the majority of the population. (But what do the masses know? Most think no more deeply or show any more vision than Andrea does--or a sloth or lobster.)
The irony, in 'the other thread' something about trolling and petty sniping.What's up - has someone upset you? We can't have that.
Looking at the data on https://goo.gl/RBHtiS Steve is fast running into a mathematical issue on his second attempt
This thread is just the best thread ever on the internet. Of all time.
There are those who feel so compelled to post it's just uncontrollable beyond words and there is everybody else who are so irreconcilably compelled to read everything that ever gets written, we can never keep away.
Gotta laugh :)
So if the current attempt fails and either Steve gives up completely or Bruce pushes the record out to something Steve can't achieve are you going to sum it up as "So the Team's plan results in Steve putting 20 months into never taking the record" ?You should read LWAB's comments on the fundamental binary success/faliure nature of the attempt.
I certainly dont see it as that simple; but when responding to LWAB, sometimes it is simpler to discuss things on his terms.
If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.
Steve and his team are now grinding along exactly the same path that ended a few days ago with Steve on the podium for year distance (at the time). In a few days time, he'll be pushed into 4th by Kurt. Granted, if Steve continues till August, he'll (hopefully) not have to cope with a broken ankle but he is still collecting infections. Steve is barely increasing his average riding speed and still losing hours during each day's ride. At best (assuming more intensive support and less wasted time each day), his daily average from now till the finish would top out around 210 miles (assuming he doesn't break) and he would beat his 2015 tally but not Tommy or Kurt. That would get him to 3rd or 4th. Continuing this attempt is not a no-cost option (costs are not just monetary) and, appearances to the contrary, Steve is not a machine.
On FB 'Steve' congratulated Kurt and in the next sentence said he would break the new record.
Well done Kurt and Alicia Searvogel.
Enjoy your last few days as the new World Record holder
I first encountered Steve Abraham on the North Roads 24 time trial towards the end of the last century. That was the 100th running of that event, and it ran true to the course of such a ride. We all went round and round on various public roads for a whole day each, until it was your time to finish. They added up everyone’s distance and declared some winners. First was Ian Butcher, 501 miles, he and the third place rider had to be held up on the podium to receive their prizes. I’ve since seen much the same happen a number of times on the way to the record being raised to 542 miles in 2011 by Andy Wilkinson.
There were two regular 24 hour time trials in those days, and there was a prize for the longest distance ridden in both combined. Steve was usually a long way behind the winners, but he always rode both. Those events are a real family affair, with the same faces turn up riding and supporting. There’s an overlapping line that has handed the baton on from the decade before the establishment of the modern Olympics. It’s not a huge number of people, a couple of hundred active participants and helpers, but it’s a core group of support for Steve, they understand where he’s coming from, where he’s going to, and what stands in his way.
Another area of overlapping support is in Audax. That’s a form of non-competitive long distance cycling. It’s essentially a ladder, leading to ever greater feats of endurance on a bike. Its greatest single manifestation is Paris Brest Paris, a 1200km relic of the late 19th century love affair with the bicycle. Around 5,000 people ride, and Steve’s been doing that since 1995, so he’s a well established member of that community. Audax United Kingdom is one of the clubs Steve belongs to, the North Buckinghamshire Road Club is another formally constituted one, and then there’s Yet Another Cycling Forum, a loose internet coalition of cyclists with a leaning towards the longer side of the pastime.
The record that Steve is attempting is a long standing one from 1939. It was encouraged by Cycling magazine and the first record was established in 1911. The 1930s were something of a heyday for long distance rides and distance records, and were very much a British speciality, as road races were not allowed. Record holders were the stars of the sport, and were feted at prize givings at the Albert Hall, and their names entered in ’The Golden Book of Cycling’.
Steve’s record attempt strikes me as an extension of that heritage. In the meantime, a whole new series of cycling cultures have come to the fore, with road racing and leisure cycling hybridising to give birth to the sportive scene, triathlons introducing big numbers to endurance cycling and a new discipline of ‘adventure cycling’, which has elements from other ‘adventure sports’. Social media has had a role to play in the establishment of these newer types of cycling. There’s a difference in approach between time trialling, which chips seconds off the time taken to ride set distances, and ‘adventure cycling’ which seems to emphasise inspiration and aspiration and to border on ‘spirituality’.
I got around to thinking about these various ways of understanding what Steve is doing, by looking at ‘Adventure Sports’ websites. There’s usually a lot of detail about the how, and also about the why, which seems to be a component that can be best explained if you book the personality as an inspirational speaker. So I wondered how Tommy Godwin would have been an inspiration in his time. From 1939 Britain was in an arms production race with Germany, and endless toil, devoted to reaching targets, was going to dominate a lot of lives for the next five years. Tommy’s record can be seen as a combination of the physical capacities needed to carry out the work and the discipline of working in the munitions factories. It chimed with the films of George Formby and Gracie Fields, where the virtues of modesty and self-effacement don’t need to be sacrificed to achieve success. This may seem wholly nostalgic to many, but those values persist in cycling clubs around the country, it’s part and parcel of the working-class roots of the sport.
The current perception of ‘extreme sports’ doesn’t see the participant as a worker, but as a seeker after truth. People are transformed by doing extraordinary things in extraordinary places. That’s a lot easier to convey these days, as it’s now possible to record the spectacular feats in spectacular scenery fairly easily, and there are many media outlets to show the results. I can see the appeal of that ‘spiritual journey’ view, and I wonder how it might apply to Steve’s record attempt. But Steve’s not doing something obviously spectacular, there’s no summit to arrive at. He puts the hours in, at a pre-determined rate, and he arrives at his ultimate destination. In that sense he’s extremely ordinary, he’s doing what most people do, just a lot more of it, without any appreciable breaks. To me he’s the ‘Everyday Hero’. I always knew where he stood in terms of his capacity to undertake a job like this, he’s certainly bold enough, and he’s got the tenacity to see it through.
I find it inspiring that someone is upholding those sorts of values, and it makes me want to reassert that in myself.
That implies a much less targeted approach than the reality. Just IMO of course ...If I have made "snide comments" they have not been aimed at the people doing the hard graft.
I agree. Your snide comments are squarely aimed at other posters on this thread Matt.
I think this thread would be better if we could accept that there are lots of different views (acturally there are probably only two views!) and allow people to air them here without any snideynessThis is not an original idea! Good luck with it though.
I know you and you're a decent bloke, but you do come across as a bit of a knob on here sometimesThanks, I'll take that - I'm sure worse things will be said to me in 2016 :)
Hopkinson made history earlier this summer by becoming the first solo Briton to complete the 3,000-mile non-stop Race Across America.
He said he was "over the moon" at securing the 12 hour title, but added: "I'm retiring from racing. I've done too much. So far this year altogether I've ridden just under 25,500 miles, which is ridiculous.
"I'm suffering with nerve damage to my hands after the RAAM – I can't feel my thumb on my right hand.
Read more: http://www.matlockmercury.co.uk/sport/local-sport/chris-quits-at-the-top-1-860252#ixzz3wMhNHvXC
What a shame that Steve's efforts are being overshadowed by hints of conflicts between current team members and ex-team members.
Hanlon's Razor probably should be applied here.
Hanlon's Razor probably should be applied here.
I agree, which is why there seems to be little benefit in raising it here and labelling it as "serious".
I thought it might get a bit like the day after a General Election where all the losers throw in the towel....
Do football teams walk off the field conceding defeat when the opposition score the first goal?
Steve will continue insisting that he is on track to break the record, as will his team. Which is bollocks, of course
QuoteSteve will continue insisting that he is on track to break the record, as will his team. Which is bollocks, of course
He is still ahead of of Godwins milage at this point, a fact that seems to be mostly ignored.
I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.
I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.
And I disagree. Cos he's based in Milton Keynes for the winter and the summer.
I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!! Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will. I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!! Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.
Check out some of the long days that Tommy managed through his second winter, which was much milder than his first. Steve has had a fairly mild first winter and an exceptionally warm winter so far, but hasn't been able to take advantage of that.
I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.
And I disagree. Cos he's based in Milton Keynes for the winter and the summer.
Where Steve is based is irrelevant. You have to do the miles. If you haven't got the speed for big summer miles / shorter winter miles you have to do daily average distance each and every day. If you can't do either of those scenarios then it equals no record.
Check out some of the long days that Tommy managed through his second winter, which was much milder than his first. Steve has had a fairly mild first winter and an exceptionally warm winter so far, but hasn't been able to take advantage of that.
Erm. Nope, Tommy's second winter was just as bad as the first. He tells us so in his mileage diary for 1940 which has a number of scribbled notes to that effect. It did not let up until end of March.
Check out some of the long days that Tommy managed through his second winter, which was much milder than his first. Steve has had a fairly mild first winter and an exceptionally warm winter so far, but hasn't been able to take advantage of that.
Erm. Nope, Tommy's second winter was just as bad as the first. He tells us so in his mileage diary for 1940 which has a number of scribbled notes to that effect. It did not let up until end of March.
Plus, as LWaB himself pointed out upthread(?) post-September '39 he was subject to the blackout restrictions. Lights of that era were shit enough even before taking precautions against the
Luftwaffe dropping a Big Fritz in your saddlebag.
I can see only one way that Steve can ride the year and it's on consistent daily miles - i.e. hitting the records average each and every day.
And I disagree. Cos he's based in Milton Keynes for the winter and the summer.
Where Steve is based is irrelevant. You have to do the miles. If you haven't got the speed for big summer miles / shorter winter miles you have to do daily average distance each and every day. If you can't do either of those scenarios then it equals no record.
It's not a choice between consistent miles all year or Godwin-esque big summer miles / shorter winter miles. There's plenty of room in the middle depending on how much more you think you can do in the warmer nicer spring/summer.
Tommy's graph on jo's visualisation looks like a sine wave, it's all about how tall you want to make that sine wave (the amplitude).
Tommy's monthly averages were (roughly): 154, 158, 178, 189, 211, 255, 276, 237, 222, 207, 200, 174 which has huge variation and some weeks where Tommy averaged over 300 miles a day.
So taking a requirement of 210 mpd average then a plan that starts of with months of:-
195, 200, 205
requires the following months to balance them out to average 210mpd: 215, 220, 225
then reverse those 6 months for the other half of the year to get:-
195, 200, 205, 215, 220, 225, 225, 220, 215, 205, 200, 195
Flatter sine wave and far easier than trying to emulate the huge summer miles of Tommy.
[EDIT] For reference, Steve's first attempt had monthly averages of: 185, 191, 205 (not including the day of the moped) which, given that he didn't start in great form and was aiming to beat a record that was only 205mpd, was looking in reasonable shape.
Do football teams walk off the field conceding defeat when the opposition score the first goal?
It's the brave valiant football team that continues pushing hard and not giving up despite being 10-1 down with only 5 minutes to go.
They still lose the game though.
I'm perfectly aware of this. If you take a look at my year on year miles if I didn't understand and use the sine wave I wouldn't be so close to 300,000 miles with a yearly average of 14,800 miles since 1999 or ridden 19,007 miles around a full time job in 2015.
However, if your variation in speed is quiet limited, which Steve's appears to be then your sine wave is going to be pretty flat. Hence the simplified statement of keep riding round about 205 (probably 210) miles per day plus or minus a bit. This is precisely what Kurt has done and he's quicker than Steve.
Steve's plan is for the Tommy sine wave. So he has to have speed and replication to achieve this. Evidence?
Theory is all well and good but you have to be able to put it into practice.
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!! Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will. I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!! Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.
What a silly post. No-one is criticising Steve or stabbing him in the back. Just pointing out the immensity of the task and hypothesising that he's almost certainly not going to achieve it. The only thing being criticised is his strategy. Ok and the team too.
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!! Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will. I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!! Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.
What a silly post. No-one is criticising Steve or stabbing him in the back. Just pointing out the immensity of the task and hypothesising that he's almost certainly not going to achieve it. The only thing being criticised is his strategy. Ok and the team too.
Instead of 14 hour days with 11.5 hours riding time he would build to 16 hour days with 14.5 hours riding time. Even at his current average speed that's close to the upper limit of that plan that peaks at 225 miles/day.
Greenbank,
If you want to believe in fairies and woodland folk and their magic in the context of this record, fine go ahead.
However, my palmares both racing and randonneuring bear out that I do have the experience and results to back up what I'm saying.
Your waffle about diet doesn't stand up to what happens in real cycling world it you want to go fast and far.
Instead of 14 hour days with 11.5 hours riding time he would build to 16 hour days with 14.5 hours riding time. Even at his current average speed that's close to the upper limit of that plan that peaks at 225 miles/day.
225 miles in 14.5 hours riding needs an average of 15.5mph.
235 miles in the same time would need an average of 16.2mph.
If Steve's sine wave is to top out at 225mpd, he needs to be doing this pretty much from the beginning of March.
Your waffle about diet doesn't stand up to what happens in real cycling world it you want to go fast and far.
Citizenfish, how likely do you think it is that Tommy spent the summer months crystal-cranking 18" from the back of a 20mph lorry on the A1? Having seen the toll that consistent high mileage has taken on Steve, and assuming that if Kurt was finding it easy to knock out an average of 210mpd he'd have done more, it seems difficult to believe that from 17/7/39 onwards Tommy managed 5 straight days of 300m+ rides and that his midsummer 361m was followed by more than a month of Godwin+ rides, many nearer 300m than 200m.
CF:
I think there was a mention back inJan15 (remember then??) of Godwin getting just 2 hours sleep some nights in usmmer.
Can you confirm this? Any more detail??
TIA,
Matty
Are you suggesting Hoppo is deliberately undermining Steve's attempt in order to further his own future chances of taking the record? That's a pretty serious allegation and not one to be bandied about lightly. If you are not, what is the point in hinting at conflicts of interest?
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!! Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will. I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!! Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.
However we all hope as the warmer weather arrives
I completely agree with Postie's sentiments and am amazed at the level of un-niceness and bitternesstowards Stevein this thread. There is far too much in this thread with fails the forum rule about being nice to each other.
I asked Steve why he didn't like taking pace at 3.30 in this interview, his answer made me think of tandems at the time. It may just be a concentration issue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIMA9Zux9gE
We all know that the arithmetic is balanced on a knife edge, endlessly repeating the same arguments with slightly different numbers each week just makes YACF a less and less pleasant place to visit.
Or better still you could just support steve!!!! Some of you on here are supposed to be his friends, yet you seem happy to stab him in the back!!! Steve will carry on and what ever happens will achieve something no one on this forum ever will. I was taught from a early age in my cycling life not to criticize those doing things your not capable of!!! Some on here need to have a long hard look at them selfs.
Greenbank,
If you want to believe in fairies and woodland folk and their magic in the context of this record, fine go ahead.
However, my palmares both racing and randonneuring bear out that I do have the experience and results to back up what I'm saying.
Your waffle about diet doesn't stand up to what happens in real cycling world it you want to go fast and far.
The next thing I did was to think about how many hours I’d expect to spend riding, not including stops, on a typical day for whichever given month. For example, I thought that spending 12-14 hours would be about right for a typical January day, on a daily basis. Whereas in June, riding for 16-18 hours would be about right. I based the figures on my years of experience of all year round long distance cycling.
For the more ambitious schedule, I left the hours alone. Because of the weather, sleep and natural gains and losses in performance during the course of a cycling year, I considered the hours to be unmovable.
As fitness, conditioning and weather improves, I expect to be able to ride for longer without stopping, so although there is a 4 hour difference of riding time on the schedule between summer and winter, I expect there to be more like an hour or two difference between a days ride as I’d spend more time stopped to take shelter and have a warm drink in the winter.
I could forsee spending as much time not moving as I did last winter. Once my new diet is in full flight I think I may be able to spend less time stopped in winter than I did last year, though this remains to be seen.
My new diet is well under way but not quite up to speed yet. I initially needed 4 big feeds a day and now only need 3.
Next step is to space out those feeds and I should also not need to eat as much for each feed, which will save even more time.
We all know that the arithmetic is balanced on a knife edge, endlessly repeating the same arguments with slightly different numbers each week just makes YACF a less and less pleasant place to visit.
So why do people repeatedly visit the thread then? Only to post their antipathy towards some of the views expressed here? Well, why the hell shouldn't they I suppose is the answer to that.
A group worth it's grain of salt should be able to hold all views. I really don't see much that is wrong with this thread - [other than the posts I don't like of course - and there are many!]. Is it really that bad? Personally I don't think so. For the most part it's engaging. Surely the forum can handle views that might clash every now and then?
It's the internet, and the thread is called, 'Current thoughts about the record attempt' - it's an invitation to empty your stuff into a virtual letter box. The clue is in the title. Looks like many have taken up the invitation too.
What I find equally bizarre is those that don't like what they read but constantly return only to be continually agitated by what other people have posted to the point of saying it's a negative thread. Like, what are you doing? On the one hand some people don't like what they read, but then return again and again. Why read it, if it's that negative to you? Do you really think Steve cares that much? Do you really think he cares about Kurt's recumbent like some people do here? Does he really care about mileage estimates going on? Does he really care about the weather in Florida as opposed to the dark skies over a an already drenched MG? I doubt it somehow.
Right now, he hasn't got a lot of time to care about any of this anyway.
Truly both Steve and Kurt have done something amazing, whatever the final figures turn out to be.
Citizenfish, how likely do you think it is that Tommy spent the summer months crystal-cranking 18" from the back of a 20mph lorry on the A1? Having seen the toll that consistent high mileage has taken on Steve, and assuming that if Kurt was finding it easy to knock out an average of 210mpd he'd have done more, it seems difficult to believe that from 17/7/39 onwards Tommy managed 5 straight days of 300m+ rides and that his midsummer 361m was followed by more than a month of Godwin+ rides, many nearer 300m than 200m.
I don't believe it as I think I would have found reference to it. His coach Charley Davey was a tough wizened record breaker who had taken the 24hr record and many other nails events. He would have taken no nonsense from Godwin and the record shows he harried him on during his five months of active pacing. Godwin's 348 day was witnessed by Cycling magazine, no mention of lorries, and clear indication in his splits that he rode fast then recovered, repeat.
Neat theory, little evidence that he used it during the Davey months. However, afterwards when the pacing was stopped I suspect he would have welcomed any lorry tows available.
For six months he tossed a coin each morning to decide which bike to use - and then timed the journey.
His study, published in the British Medical Journal, found that there was no measurable difference in commuting time over the 27 miles from Sheffield to his place of work and back.
The average journey time using his heavy, old bike was 1 hour 47 minutes and the average journey for the new, lighter new bike was 1 hour 48 minutes.
Greenback - a good posting
plus it's one more thing to go wrong if he was relying upon it.
Quoteplus it's one more thing to go wrong if he was relying upon it.
or redundancy for the the HRM, which wrecked a few hours riding a couple of months ago
My father was a club cyclist in the late 1940s and a driver in the RAF in the 1950s. Drafting lorries was something they did as a way of getting to somewhere interesting from Preston, essentially straight up the A6.
...Well yes and no! I like your tolerant peace-loving approach, and I'm certainly one who could learn from it. But things aren't as simple as you describe.
It's the internet, and the thread is called, 'Current thoughts about the record attempt' - it's an invitation to empty your stuff into a virtual letter box. The clue is in the title. Looks like many have taken up the invitation too.
What I find equally bizarre is those that don't like what they read but constantly return only to be continually agitated by what other people have posted to the point of saying it's a negative thread. Like, what are you doing? On the one hand some people don't like what they read, but then return again and again. Why read it, if it's that negative to you?
...
I really need to learn to stop clicking on the "show me the post" button.
It's a red herring. Aerodynamics are far more important than weight.
It's a red herring. Aerodynamics are far more important than weight.
...
This is a forum. We discuss stuff. I don't see the point of a "virtual letter box" where people just dump their thoughts, if no one is going to read them. And for me, just reading the stuff is pretty dull - what makes forums fun is the discussion.
...
I think I have read every single piece of commentary and interview concerning Tommy, Bernard, Rene, Walter, Ossie etc... possible and I've never found reference to it as the underlying strategy by either the riders or the journalists. I've nothing to hide as I am fascinated by the whole affair. I'm sure it was part of a rider's day were the opportunity to arise but I am not convinced by the theory that it underpinned the big miles. If this was the case they would have continued at the same rate after the pacers retired. The other problem is milage cards, you forget that a signature was required at every major turn/location. Billie Fleming told me this in person, it wasn't just a case of getting a card signed when you felt like it.
Eileen's case is possibly different, equivalent to motorpaced training that many pros do today behind a moped to build speed. Sadly the people who really know are not here.
I really need to learn to stop clicking on the "show me the post" button.Keep trying - one day I'll post about Ant+ megabit dongles, or whatever it is that floats your boat.
You flatter yourself in assuming it was you he was referring to...I really need to learn to stop clicking on the "show me the post" button.Keep trying - one day I'll post about Ant+ megabit dongles, or whatever it is that floats your boat.
:-*
You flatter yourself in assuming it was you he was referring to...I really need to learn to stop clicking on the "show me the post" button.Keep trying - one day I'll post about Ant+ megabit dongles, or whatever it is that floats your boat.
:-*
Doing my National Service in 1954 I frequently rode from camp at Weston Super Mare to home near Epsom. I joined the A4 outside Bath and turned off it at Reading. Tucking in behind lorries on the A4 was always part of these rides but the longer the tow the slower the last stretch so I arrived home at a similar time either way.
Might this be a consideration when thinking of Steve being paced?
I had a wee look through Alicia's Twitter history earlier - she's been pretty focussed recently on pitching Kurt's approaching the record to mainstream news outlets (and a few cycling ones as well). It'll be interesting to see whether they pick up on it.
The stories about Kurt are interesting, especially the Bicycling magazine one. There's a lot of human interest and especially 'redemption' themes. It got me to wondering about a reluctance for the US media to celebrate a cycling hero in the post-Lance era.
We haven't had that for a while in the UK, not since David Millar, and there's the ambiguous relationship we have with the memory of Tommy Simpson.
I got on this train of thought by wondering how old someone inspired to take up cycling in their mid-thirties by Lance's Tour victory in 1999 would be now. They'd be pretty likely to have gone through some of Kurt's experiences, but be wary of being inspired by them after the Armstrong experience. Some US Randonneurs have expressed admiration for Steve's approach. He told me that he had a following in Seattle.
It may be that Kurt doesn't get the full recognition he deserves because of the legacy of Lance.
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health.
'Scott of the Antarctic' lives on because he died.
Don't wish that on Steve. :facepalm:
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health.
I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health.
My references to it a couple of weeks ago under the banner of 'duty of care' were probably way too subtle. It's one thing to support someone in a risky endeavour which is their life's dream but I firmly believe it is wrong to do so once it becomes clear the goal is out of reach.
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health.
I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.
Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.
'Scott of the Antarctic' lives on because he died.
Don't wish that on Steve. :facepalm:
Whereas the Shackleton story lived on because no-one died, at a time when WW1 was raging.
On another note, has anyone been able to find a hamster wheel that is flatter but still as sheltered as the National Bowl? I thought it wouldn't be too hard but didn't manage to come up with anything with less climbing per mile. Given that Steve seems willing to try such an approach (based on yesterday's fb post saying that Steve was test-riding the Bowl in less windy conditions for comparison), perhaps if a few of us could search around for other flatter options it might give Steve some better options?
Whereas the Shackleton story lived on because no-one died.
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health.
My references to it a couple of weeks ago under the banner of 'duty of care' were probably way too subtle. It's one thing to support someone in a risky endeavour which is their life's dream but I firmly believe it is wrong to do so once it becomes clear the goal is out of reach.
Even though the mileage of Tommy or indeed Kurt may not be achieved Steve will likely wish to see what mileages he can do. However if he is happy to change from his audax mode to a different approach with increased back up (for which the funds are healthy) his chances of quicker miles with reduced unnecessary down time during the day and with increased sleep will/could work wonders!
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health.
I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.
Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.
I think my answer to that question might be different if Steve were well placed to get the record and not having to play catch up. At this stage, even if Steve were up with the pace, with 8 months still to go a health issue of any sort could become much more serious. If he were well placed with only a month to go and a potentially serious health issue cropped up, then my answer might be different. But then I'm not a doctor.
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health.
I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.
Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.
I think my answer to that question might be different if Steve were well placed to get the record and not having to play catch up. At this stage, even if Steve were up with the pace, with 8 months still to go a health issue of any sort could become much more serious. If he were well placed with only a month to go and a potentially serious health issue cropped up, then my answer might be different. But then I'm not a doctor.
If something occurs that is serious enough then I'd assume Steve would stop regardless of the status of the attempt.
There's nothing to indicate that what Steve is doing now is any more (or less) detrimental to his health than when he first started the attempt.
Even though Steve may fall behind the pace required for the Godwin/Kurt record he may continue just to beat his previous attempt and get a PB. We're in the dark as to Steve's exact motivations.
Then it no longer becomes a record attempt and just a long bike ride with no need to continue to ask for voluntary contributions to pay for it IMO.
Those who urge Steve on despite the increasing remoteness of his chances of taking the record (which look more remote even than a week ago when Idai did his interview) should take into account that extreme endurance sport is not good for the health.
I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.
Yes. Nothing in life is without risk. Some risks are worth taking and some are not.
I think my answer to that question might be different if Steve were well placed to get the record and not having to play catch up. At this stage, even if Steve were up with the pace, with 8 months still to go a health issue of any sort could become much more serious. If he were well placed with only a month to go and a potentially serious health issue cropped up, then my answer might be different. But then I'm not a doctor.
If something occurs that is serious enough then I'd assume Steve would stop regardless of the status of the attempt.
There's nothing to indicate that what Steve is doing now is any more (or less) detrimental to his health than when he first started the attempt.
Even though Steve may fall behind the pace required for the Godwin/Kurt record he may continue just to beat his previous attempt and get a PB. We're in the dark as to Steve's exact motivations.
I wonder if the mods would be good enough to remove the "2015" from the board title, since it no longer is? Kajsa's and Bruce's attempts most definitely do not belong under that heading.
I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that. Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?
I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that. Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?
the current plan seems (based on what Idai said in that interview) to be to continue to strive towards breaking the record, with a continue/stop decision to be made at the end of the month.
I don't get this argument. Would you be against urging him on if he was on track to get the record? That would be equally detrimental to his health but somehow it's ok if he's going to get the record at the end of it.
I'm not talking about acute stuff (agree with what you say on that); more the effect of doing it on long term health.
I wonder if the mods would be good enough to remove the "2015" from the board title, since it no longer is? Kajsa's and Bruce's attempts most definitely do not belong under that heading.
Better still, how about a new Sub-forum under Rides & Touring, entitled "World Record Attempts"?
After all - these attempts have little or nothing to do with Audax.
I'm going to wait until the end of the month to hear what Steve's intentions are. While I agree that Idai probably didn't mean there would be a hard end point at the end of Jan, my understanding is that there is to be a review and a sharing of intentions. I'm as interested in how the plan has been arrived at as I am in the content of the plan.
I expect the run rate to continue to climb through Jan but for the ride to trundle on.
I'm looking to get a few PBs this year, and a set of Zipp 808 wheels would be handy to help me do that. Does anyone want to bung me some money to buy them?
If your PBs were going to be national records, and you could provide some evidence that you've got a reasonable chance then some may consider donating.
So if you're going for the 10 mile TT record (17:20 by Dowsett isn't it?) show me your results where you've done, I dunno, sub 18:20 and I'd consider donating.
Money probably best spent on something like Aerocoach and getting CdA down before swanky wheels though.
An outline of the plan would be great, although it doesn't really matter how much detail is shared it's never going to be enough for some people and there's always going to be room for assumptions, conjecture and doubt, so I don't think it will change much in that respect. People would just have some different things to get all frothy about.
but now that's vanishingly unlikely to happen and he's just going for a PB.
To be honest, I really wish everyone would stop funding him as that might make him take a colder, more rational assessment of his chances than the current situation, where he's got a comfortable financial cushion of ongoing donations to a record attempt that isn't a record attempt anymore.
In my opinion if all funding stopped now, there would be enough in the pot to fund the 2nd attempt to 7th Aug 2016 and still leave a 5 figure sum to be donated to charity -- but using some of the surplus at 8.8.16 to allow Steve to settle back into " real" life might be seen as reasonable.
Steve's schedule was made public before he started. When Kurt published his it was commented that it mirrored Steve's and much discussion ensued.
A lot of the manoeuvring which has defined the debate happened around the start of Steve's ride. The moped incident put paid to that developing debate. Steve wasn't keeping to his schedule, Kurt was, and continued to do so with the odd wobble.
Steve's schedule was made public before he started. When Kurt published his it was commented that it mirrored Steve's and much discussion ensued.
A lot of the manoeuvring which has defined the debate happened around the start of Steve's ride. The moped incident put paid to that developing debate. Steve wasn't keeping to his schedule, Kurt was, and continued to do so with the odd wobble.
Really?
According to jo's visualisations Steve was tracking his upper schedule almost perfectly until moped day (daily distance wise, not in terms of average speed and riding time, which was the reason why that schedule wasn't going to be sustainable for much longer).
Kurt on the other hand rode a reasonably flat profile, not much like his schedule at all, and he was almost 4000 miles down on his schedule at the end of October. Luckily his schedule was to beat Tommy's record by 3500 miles and he pulled it back in the last month.
Yeah, I know he's got money in the bank, but it might at least give him a bit of a jolt.
His intentions don't really matter: AFAICS he's ridden himself into the ground and isn't going to get any records without a stop and restart. All he can possibly aim for now is a personal PB, which puts him on the same level as amateur racing cyclists the world over, and about as worthy of funding.
At the start of the attempt, there was a lot of talk about how to handle sleep debt, I don't think Kurt had any problems with that.
Then it no longer becomes a record attempt and just a long bike ride with no need to continue to ask for voluntary contributions to pay for it IMO.
And many may agree with you (I'd probably continue to donate to that PB attempt), but the current plan seems (based on what Idai said in that interview) to be to continue to strive towards breaking the record, with a continue/stop decision to be made at the end of the month. Until I hear otherwise that's what I'll assume they're doing.
We'll also have no idea whether the decision they make is genuine or not, but I've got no reason not to trust them.
The numbers (required distance per day) are either going to remain on a knife-edge or continue to trend upwards up. No-one knows what the magic cut-off point number is. Some think it has already passed. As I said elsewhere, I think it's going to be somewhere between 219 miles per day (current required amount if Kurt adds what is expected) and 300 miles per day (where I think it's definitely toast), but I can't place exactly where it transitions from "has a chance, even if it's slim" to "no chance whatsoever".
The last day before the accident, and a week after the equinox.
I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.
Also thought that Steve didn't look too good in photo outside of The Bowl, but then again photos can be unreliable as a guide...
Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!
:P
Also thought that Steve didn't look too good in photo outside of The Bowl, but then again photos can be unreliable as a guide...
If this is a kosher Internet diagnosis-by-photo service you're offering I'll get a photo of me later (probably after playing 5-a-side football so I may look a little more haggard than normal) and you can let me know whether I'm likely to succeed with a marathon in April.
Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!
:P
The last day before the accident, and a week after the equinox.
Sorry, it's lost on me, what are you trying to show me with that graph?
What I can see is that Steve had a wobble and slipped a day behind. He knew he was going to have some good days and bad days. Without the moped incident it would have almost certainly gone off the rails very quickly after that anyway as that schedule was proving to be far too ambitious (the required distance was being achieved by riding longer than expected to make up for not being as fast as expected). He could still have been on track to beat Tommy's record though; with hindsight the ~82000 mile target may have been a bit too ambitious.
They both underestimated how well they'd start and both overestimated how well they'd do in the summer months.
I've added both Steve's (red dashes) and Tarzan's (blue dashes) planned schedule for the year. Steve has provided two schedules depending on how things go (see his site for rationale (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-schedules-explained)) so I've shaded the area between them.
(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttYearWeek1Schedule.png)
I hadn't realised quite how ambitious his target was compared to Tommy Godwin's and even Tarzan's. That 10 day tactical advantage that Tarzan has isn't going to count for much if they both stick to their schedules as Steve would be between 4,000 and 8,000 miles up in the last two weeks of their rides.
Over the first 9 days, Steve is on target for his more optimistic schedule :thumbsup:
(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttWeek1Schedule.png)
Should get interesting once Tarzan starts tomorrow.
Team is curious - we thought that Tarzan would demonstrate his strength by putting in bigger days than Steve at the start - then begin to find it hard going later -- hare and tortoise -- just doing a few more miles than Steve each day seems to be a developing tactic.
They got involved in a head to head battle early on, with Kurt pulling out a lead in spite of his slower initial schedule.
I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.
Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!
:P
Teethgrindr?
Day 45: Kurt wins the Sebring 12hr race as a 'side project' with 253.2 miles before adding another 10 to the OYTT for good measure. Meanwhile Steve knocks out a cool 193 miles to keep his consistent pace. William records his highest daily total so far at 81 miles, but has a deficit of over 7,000 miles to make up.
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay45.png)
It's interesting to think of this feedback as part of a complex control system.
These graphs are a key indicator. I wonder if an emphasis on keeping the plots smooth is in conflict with a sustainable approach. Kurt's got an IT background, so a cybernetic view might appeal to him. That might make a good title for an article, 'The ride of the cyber-men'.
Publicity is the other obvious feedback path, hopefully generating some funds for Kurt.
Speaking as an AUK member, I would favour:I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.
We are in touch with Steve's support team ...
Greenbank is quite right, Steve and Kurt were well off their schedules by mid-February. They responded to the positive feedback from social media, and it distorted their performances.I dont think Steve was way off schedule. That graph shows him less than 200 miles ahead of schedule, (under 5 miles a day).Day 45: Kurt wins the Sebring 12hr race as a 'side project' with 253.2 miles before adding another 10 to the OYTT for good measure. Meanwhile Steve knocks out a cool 193 miles to keep his consistent pace. William records his highest daily total so far at 81 miles, but has a deficit of over 7,000 miles to make up.
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay45.png)
I was wondering by mid-March if the information tail was wagging the dog. Big mile days brought kudos on Strava, and attention in the media.
...but I didn't think Steve looked that great in his MK Bowl photo yesterday.
https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015/photos/a.1523448711237093.1073741830.1520678421514122/1658738951041401/?type=3
(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/12417838_1658738951041401_2060257200429254760_n.jpg?oh=f7165dd8639e00e383d4d9a0cfdbbc5c&oe=5706A24D)
Greenbank is quite right, Steve and Kurt were well off their schedules by mid-February. They responded to the positive feedback from social media, and it distorted their performances.I dont think Steve was way off schedule. That graph shows him less than 200 miles ahead of schedule, (under 5 miles a day).Day 45: Kurt wins the Sebring 12hr race as a 'side project' with 253.2 miles before adding another 10 to the OYTT for good measure. Meanwhile Steve knocks out a cool 193 miles to keep his consistent pace. William records his highest daily total so far at 81 miles, but has a deficit of over 7,000 miles to make up.
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay45.png)
I was wondering by mid-March if the information tail was wagging the dog. Big mile days brought kudos on Strava, and attention in the media.
Wherease Kurt is more like 600 above after 37 days.
And you will note that Greenbank did NOT say Steve was well off his schedule.
There doesnt seem to be much right in your post, TBH. Sorry!
Speaking of schedules, just noticed that his two original schedules have disappeared from the website in the last 24 hours.
Month | Distance | Distance/ day |
August 2015 | 4,564.70 | 190.196 |
September 2015 | 6,424.80 | 214.160 |
October 2015 | 6,469.60 | 208.697 |
November 2015 | 5,491.20 | 183.041 |
December 2015 | 4,910.20 | 158.394 |
January 2016 | 6,250.00 | 201.6 |
February 2016 | 6,425.00 | 221.6 |
March 2016 | 6,990.00 | 225.5 |
April 2016 | 7,110.00 | 237.0 |
May 2016 | 7,195.00 | 232.1 |
June 2016 | 7,035.00 | 234.5 |
July 2016 | 7,024.00 | 226.6 |
August 2016 | 1,260.00 | 210.0 |
Total | 77,149.50 |
Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?
Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?
QuoteMaybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?
I hope so, a spell somewhere warm and flat would make a big difference, he's going to need to be lucky with the weather to do 222mpd in Feb and luck seems to have been in short supply in recent times
Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?
The Bordeaux area would be a good one for that.
Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?
The Bordeaux area would be a good one for that.
January 1, 2016 201.7
January 2, 2016 190.5
January 3, 2016 161.2
January 4, 2016 181.2
January 5, 2016 195.2
January 6, 2016 156.9
January 7, 2016 200
TOTAL 1286.7
So an average of 206.8mpd required in the remaining 24 days of January (i.e. 20 minutes more riding and 20 minutes less rest than his longest day of the year so far, every day).
So an average of 206.8mpd required in the remaining 24 days of January (i.e. 20 minutes more riding and 20 minutes less rest than his longest day of the year so far, every day).
Thanks - so I make that he's 43 miles down on the 190 per day schedule for the first week.
It doesn't sound a lot but any deficit needs to be clawed back at some point and makes the task harder.
Rename the sub-forum.
"2016 Kurt Searvogel Record Attempt".
Plus they'll be less to do if Kurt doesn't achieve 77,149.49.
Kurt's on for 76100-ish (I think), so that's 1000 miles of that plan that Steve won't have to do (if it really came down to it), or about 4.5 miles per day.
Part of me wants Kurt to smash it for the last few days, and part of me wants him to ease up and be kind to Steve.
It's a little concerning that the schedule for January starts with an already-accrued 43 mile deficit!! For all the reasons frequently given here, I believe this schedule is unlikely to work, but at least we now have one and can objectively judge how Steve is doing relative to it. Once again, I wish him all the luck he needs and more, but I'm not optimistic.+1. Interesting, as Greenbank points out, that the peak daily mileage is scheduled for April rather than a later month - I would have thought that, once the worst of winter passes (probably next month), riding conditions would steadily improve through to the end of the attempt. April, with typical showery weather and blustery conditions, strikes me as a much less clement month than, say, June.
@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England. In 2007, when Mrs. Wow and I did our LEJOG, there were some weather stations operated by Essex and Suffolk Water that didn't record any rain throughout the whole of April. We didn't experience any at all until we were on Arran, and then it was only 20 minutes or so. It rained all day when we went through Fort William and we had another wet afternoon on the East Coast.
There is a new schedule on the website (it has not been posted here yet, has it?):
http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation/142-targets-2016 (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation/142-targets-2016)
Month | Distance | Distance/ day | Distance/ day 2015 (%change) | |
August 2015 | 4,564.70 | 190.196 | ||
September 2015 | 6,424.80 | 214.160 | ||
October 2015 | 6,469.60 | 208.697 | ||
November 2015 | 5,491.20 | 183.041 | ||
December 2015 | 4,910.20 | 158.394 | ||
January 2016 | 6,250.00 | 201.6 | 185.3 (+9%) | |
February 2016 | 6,425.00 | 221.6 | 191.4 (+16%) | |
March 2016 | 6,990.00 | 225.5 | 204.6 (+10%) | |
April 2016 | 7,110.00 | 237.0 | ||
May 2016 | 7,195.00 | 232.1 | ||
June 2016 | 7,035.00 | 234.5 | 214.9 (+9%) | |
July 2016 | 7,024.00 | 226.6 | ||
August 2016 | 1,260.00 | 210.0 | ||
Total | 77,149.50 |
I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers.
I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers.
That was a tough one. Finding the pre-dawn control village hall locked with the controller stamping brevet cards outside was particularly unwelcome.
@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England.But IME the weather is at its most changeable in April - probably necessitating more stopping and changing, and carrying more kit. Less drizzly days, more four-seasons-in-one-day.
@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England. In 2007, when Mrs. Wow and I did our LEJOG, there were some weather stations operated by Essex and Suffolk Water that didn't record any rain throughout the whole of April. We didn't experience any at all until we were on Arran, and then it was only 20 minutes or so. It rained all day when we went through Fort William and we had another wet afternoon on the East Coast.
I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers. April tends to be dry with extremes of temperature. Weather rhymes predate the Gregorian calendar, so refer to a period 11 days later.
The distance is roughly the equivalent of London to Edinburgh and return with ten times as many potholes on the wayI wonder how that has stood up over time. My experience of British and French roads in general would suggest it's well on the way to reversed.
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.FTFY ;)
Let's see if he can do 205a day for the next weektoday. And if so,the rest of Januaryfor the next week.
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week. And if so, the rest of January.I must admit, I've grown increasingly uncomfortable supporting the whole thing really.
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.
True. But I can't see why it would ramp up by 15 miles per day today unless there was a hint of fitting it to reality involved. So it's possible that it was not retrospective but it seems unlikely.
True. But I can't see why it would ramp up by 15 miles per day today unless there was a hint of fitting it to reality involved. So it's possible that it was not retrospective but it seems unlikely.+1
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.FTFY ;)
Let's see if he can do 205a day for the next weektoday. And if so,the rest of Januaryfor the next week.
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
Remember, weallmostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.FTFY ;)
Let's see if he can do 205a day for the next weektoday. And if so,the rest of Januaryfor the next week.
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
Remember, weallmostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.
Wonder how Steve plans his routes for the day on a given morning/night before, so that he makes sure he's slightly over target, rather than several miles under? I guess he may do more of the short rides from home to make up any of the day's shortfall if necessary to make sure he's on track for req'd mpd.
His test day doing the bowl must have been in anticipation of doing some days like this, perhaps when the weather is bad.
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.FTFY ;)
Let's see if he can do 205a day for the next weektoday. And if so,the rest of Januaryfor the next week.
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
Remember, weallmostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.
Wonder how Steve plans his routes for the day on a given morning/night before, so that he makes sure he's slightly over target, rather than several miles under? I guess he may do more of the short rides from home to make up any of the day's shortfall if necessary to make sure he's on track for req'd mpd.
Rename the sub-forum.
"2016 Kurt Searvogel Record Attempt".
I wish I'd said that.
Oh, wait... (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87329.msg1969888#msg1969888)
...Right now Steve is the official HAMR...
...Right now Steve is the official HAMR...
Has it been validated?
It's good to see a set of targets. Now comes the point where we say that we wouldn't have done it like that!
It's good to see a set of targets. Now comes the point where we say that we wouldn't have done it like that!
I wouldn't have done it like that.
I think I would have been happier not knowing Steve's new schedule.There is no schedule as far as I'm concerned, it's an illusion, it doesn't exist - he just has ride as many miles each day as is physically possible to stand any chance whatsoever. If the schedule says 205 then it's irrelevant because he needs 215, because there will be day us when something will get in the way - mainly the weather. He has to gain miles now and not lose them. One mile a day will do. Physically, I suppose it's possible, but he's still only human, not superman - although some people seem to think he is.
I'm not going to comment on Steve's attempt any more, as I've nothing meaningful to say.
Headwind and hassles that ate my riding time leave me with some catching up to do!
Steve has some bloody irritating habits. He's currently on a favourite route SW that usually takes him to Cirencester. Thing is, he passes about 40mins riding time from me. This is slightly too far away to be a quick pop-out ride to try to intercept him, especially when you add in the likelihood that I'll miss him anyway.
If I had 2 hours notice of his exact route it would be ideal for a spot of roadside cheering. Curse him!
Ok, thanks.
Jo, it is this one http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/spreadsheet.php (http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/spreadsheet.php)
I think I would have been happier not knowing Steve's new schedule. It has strained my credulity to breaking point. I'm not going to comment on Steve's attempt any more, as I've nothing meaningful to say.Plus 1
From Facebook. A picture says a 1000 words.
(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/12417936_1659807830934513_8635433652125693560_n.jpg?oh=5f482978467cd7ba269be0b1e7b17c6a&oe=5702C44E)
While lots of us here have spent a lot of time on the what-ifs, I don’t
The fact that exceeding the record remains within Steve’s reach and capability means that this thread has a long way to go.
The fact that exceeding the record remains within Steve’s reach and capability means that this thread has a long way to go.
While lots of us here have spent a lot of time on the what-ifs, I don’t think even the most negative of posters has suggested that there is any self-doubt on Steve’s part.
While lots of us here have spent a lot of time on the what-ifs, I don’t
The fact that exceeding the record remains within Steve’s reach and capability means that this thread has a long way to go.
Yes indeed, and I look forward to reading views from all of you
Perhaps not and to be honest I have not read everything posted but I am sick of reading posts with a theme around damning his efforts with feint praise or even suggesting that he is in some way in denial (for example).Amen to that, Brother H.
FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.
H
FFS people, if youcannot supportanalyse his attempt in any way, fuck offand whimper elsewhere.
After way too many pages of pointless bickering, these pages were beginning to calm down again. It would be nice if they could stay as thoughts on the record attempt rather than thoughts on the attitude of other posters on this thread.
Correct me if I'm wrong [and I'd appreciate a reference] but I cannot remember one post from anybody that is negative towards Steve as a person or in any way nasty and unkind, I cannot believe it's in evidence here, most people either know him of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me mostly]........but the fact remains, people do have strong feelings about how things have/are panning out for him. And for some, its runs deeper than others.
If you don't like the thread, and it's contents - don't read it. And if you don't like what's written - deal with it. I still can't understand why some people would resort to person attacks just because they don't like what's been written.
Correct me if I'm wrong [and I'd appreciate a reference] but I cannot remember one post from anybody that is negative towards Steve as a person or in any way nasty and unkind, I cannot believe it's in evidence here, most people either know him of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me mostly]........but the fact remains, people do have strong feelings about how things have/are panning out for him. And for some, its runs deeper than others.
If you don't like the thread, and it's contents - don't read it. And if you don't like what's written - deal with it. I still can't understand why some people would resort to person attacks just because they don't like what's been written.
Indeed. The only personal attacks here have come from Steve's self-proclaimed "friends" barging in and telling people to fuck off.
I think Steve deserves better to be honest.
... most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]"most" being pretty key here.
....
... most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]"most" being pretty key here.
....
Very different to all.
Not at all. Perhaps I should have quoted Von Broad's whole post ... To paraphrase:... most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]"most" being pretty key here.
....
Very different to all.
Are you suggesting that we have to know Steve personally before we can comment? Is that a standard we aim to apply to every thread?
Not at all. Perhaps I should have quoted Von Broad's whole post ... To paraphrase:... most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]"most" being pretty key here.
....
Very different to all.
Are you suggesting that we have to know Steve personally before we can comment? Is that a standard we aim to apply to every thread?
He was saying that noone would post unkindly about Steve cos MOST know him and/or have ridden with him a fair bit.
Hence my reply. Hopefully that's clearer?
Not at all. Perhaps I should have quoted Von Broad's whole post ... To paraphrase:... most people either know him personally of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me as well]"most" being pretty key here.
....
Very different to all.
Are you suggesting that we have to know Steve personally before we can comment? Is that a standard we aim to apply to every thread?
He was saying that noone would post unkindly about Steve cos MOST know him and/or have ridden with him a fair bit.
Hence my reply. Hopefully that's clearer?
...
The challenge is to allow others to have opinions that differ markedly from yours without taking it personally, or doing so on someone else's behalf, or responding with the intent to give offence. Something which we are generally quite good at on this forum, though the excellence occasionally lapses.
...
Blimey, just looked at the posts on the latter part of this thread.
I suppose the thread title prompts people to air their personal opinions but I can't help feeling what has been posted says more about the posters than it does about Steve's attempt.
Allez Steve!
May good luck and good days awheel be enjoyed in 2016, whatever the outcome of this epic challenge.
H
Correct me if I'm wrong [and I'd appreciate a reference] but I cannot remember one post from anybody that is negative towards Steve as a person or in any way nasty and unkind, I cannot believe it's in evidence here, most people either know him of have cycled with him in some shape or form over the years [for much, much longer than me mostly]........but the fact remains, people do have strong feelings about how things have/are panning out for him. And for some, its runs deeper than others.
If you don't like the thread, and it's contents - don't read it. And if you don't like what's written - deal with it. I still can't understand why some people would resort to person attacks just because they don't like what's been written.
Indeed. The only personal attacks here have come from Steve's self-proclaimed "friends" barging in and telling people to fuck off.
I think Steve deserves better to be honest.
You should go read page 67 again.
some thoughts and facts from today's ride. i woke up at 5:50am, washed myself, prepared and had a breakfast, got my cycling kit on, did a quick tlc to a bike (tyres, chain, batteries in gps and lights) and left home at 7:10. that first 1h20m disappeared from the day unnoticeably. i chose my slowest/heaviest bike (which is comparable to Steve's sojourn) then rode to whitstable (92km) with with a fine group of friends where we had a full english breakfast that took us 50min (could have turned around in 30min if we were in a rush). then we all rode back to london, completing 183km(114mi) in 9hrs at 23.6kph(14.7mph - roughly Steve's average speed) and i was home at 4:10pm. i had to have some food again.
let's assume the food was ready and it took me an optimistic 20min to eat and get out of the house. i would need to ride another 8hrs, all in the dark, and be back home half past midnight with 213 miles for the day - have some food, quick wash and hopefully be in bed by 1:20am, to sleep only 4.5 hours and do the same thing tomorrow.. day after.. week after week.. for the next 7 months and with no margin for error!
how is that possible/sustainable? have i missed anything obvious?
some thoughts and facts from today's ride. i woke up at 5:50am, washed myself, prepared and had a breakfast, got my cycling kit on, did a quick tlc to a bike (tyres, chain, batteries in gps and lights) and left home at 7:10. that first 1h20m disappeared from the day unnoticeably. i chose my slowest/heaviest bike (which is comparable to Steve's sojourn) then rode to whitstable (92km) with with a fine group of friends where we had a full english breakfast that took us 50min (could have turned around in 30min if we were in a rush). then we all rode back to london, completing 183km(114mi) in 9hrs at 23.6kph(14.7mph - roughly Steve's average speed) and i was home at 4:10pm. i had to have some food again.
let's assume the food was ready and it took me an optimistic 20min to eat and get out of the house. i would need to ride another 8hrs, all in the dark, and be back home half past midnight with 213 miles for the day - have some food, quick wash and hopefully be in bed by 1:20am, to sleep only 4.5 hours and do the same thing tomorrow.. day after.. week after week.. for the next 7 months and with no margin for error!
how is that possible/sustainable? have i missed anything obvious?
best of luck to Steve in riding more miles than on his first attempt.
p.s. i've ridden with Steve before, if that makes any difference :)
Blimey, just looked at the posts on the latter part of this thread.
I suppose the thread title prompts people to air their personal opinions but I can't help feeling what has been posted says more about the posters than it does about Steve's attempt.
FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.
...
The challenge is to allow others to have opinions that differ markedly from yours without taking it personally, or doing so on someone else's behalf, or responding with the intent to give offence. Something which we are generally quite good at on this forum, though the excellence occasionally lapses.
...
I agree with this Tim though from page 25 or so of this thread such excellence has been markedly absent from a very small minority of very aggressively vociferous individuals. I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt but then, these are just my opinions. Funny though, whenever I voice it, I get rounded on and sniped at by the thread bullies.
I don't see it quite like that. I see a range of opinions from those who think Steve now has no chance, via those who think he has a chance but it's bloody tight, to those who won't countenance any suggestion that he might not do it. The two extremes of that range are the purely evidence-based versus the purely faith-based opinions, one with no emotional attachment and the other with lots, and they don't sit happily together so it gets a bit fractious. But all are valid opinions and have every right to be expressed. We just need to be a bit better at playing the ball, not the player - but that doesn't mean we'll agree. At least, not until it's indisputable one way or the other!
I have been musing over the challenge that Steve faces and wish him all the best and want him to bring the record home!
Steve's biggest challenge is speeding up. The speed line he is crossing is where wind resistance takes over from road resistance as the biggest enemy. By my estimates he needs to increase his power by 50% to achieve the speed required to do the distance in the same time he is riding now. The main reason for this is that wind resistance does not increase in a linear manner, it increases with square of the speed. Steve has shown very flat power values with little variation day to day. For those of us who have done TTs you know how hard it is to ride at 1mph extra, 3 is a very hard ask.
I am rooting for Steve, but everything I have done in cycling tells me that this is very very hard. It will significantly increase the physical strain and he will need to eat about 25% extra.
All the best Steve :thumbsup:
You are in a hard place.
BB
Cheers Basil for that. Just go back to December 11th ... ;)
I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt
All these things seem designed to me to undermine the attempt.
Which bit is ridiculous? (just so we can be really really clear!)I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt
Really? You think some people want Steve to fail so they're trying to bring that about by posting on YACF? Really really?
Sorry but that's just ridiculous.
I am, however, enjoying the entertainment provided by the "usual suspects" very muchly, so please in the meantime carry on.
Putting my cards on the table, there are, in my opinion, those who have decided already that it is impossible now so they have taken a hard line stance saying that Steve will fail, Steve is wrong in what he is doing, etc., etc. without letting the man finish his tilt. A number of destructive side issues arose from this, for instance about PR and about funding. All these things seem designed to me to undermine the attempt.
As Wowbagger said some pages ago, it's not binary. Yup. There are so many metaphorical and actual 'drunks on mopeds' to safely negotiate so it's far from clear cut. However I choose to analyse it, and I have done so, I keep my countenance on what I might think simply because whilst Steve thinks that he can still do it I will back him all the way. He deserves respect and support. Hell, he's earned it.
That, in a nutshell, is my point of view and I'd rather not say any more on this thread now.
Cheers Basil for that. Just go back to December 11th ... ;)
I have been musing over the challenge that Steve faces and wish him all the best and want him to bring the record home!
Steve's biggest challenge is speeding up. The speed line he is crossing is where wind resistance takes over from road resistance as the biggest enemy. By my estimates he needs to increase his power by 50% to achieve the speed required to do the distance in the same time he is riding now. The main reason for this is that wind resistance does not increase in a linear manner, it increases with square of the speed. Steve has shown very flat power values with little variation day to day. For those of us who have done TTs you know how hard it is to ride at 1mph extra, 3 is a very hard ask.
I am rooting for Steve, but everything I have done in cycling tells me that this is very very hard. It will significantly increase the physical strain and he will need to eat about 25% extra.
All the best Steve :thumbsup:
You are in a hard place.
BB
I'd say you'd be about right. Est power values from Strava are in the 120w range which ime is about right for his speed. If Steve was to increase his output to around 180w I can see him easily getting upto around the 17-18mph mark, and this - I think - would still be a sustainable output to hold. Might be worth investing in a Powertap wheel...
... and I'd rather not say any more on this thread now.
...
Polar,
It would be really helpful if, when you wanted to make a criticism of something, you made it specific to a particular poster and, ideally, a specific post. Otherwise it's really not that clear what you are objecting to.
For example, your comment about undermining Steve is one that I also find ridiculous, but if you were able to cite specific comments which do that, it would help others to see if there was anything in it.
Which bit is ridiculous? (just so we can be really really clear!)I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt
Really? You think some people want Steve to fail so they're trying to bring that about by posting on YACF? Really really?
Sorry but that's just ridiculous.
^^^^So far off topic...
Apologies as I have not caught up over the last few days .... Has there been more use of the bowl, or has Steve been on roads? Any signs of increased mileage or change of approach? Have any car transfers happened? Is he hitting the January targets?
Steve was on the road until midnight again, which may be a sensible thing as the later starts will avoid the deepest frosts in the days to come. What's not so encouraging was that it was for "only" 197.5 miles.
I do think modern traffic conditions mitigate against a successful attempt by anyone in the UK nowadays, whatever their ability. Godwin's ability to utilise fast relatively empty roads like the A1 whilst drafting must have helped enormously with his mileage. Similarly Kurt was able to use relatively quiet (and flat) roads. Steve using say the A14 these days isn't such an attractive proposition.
You nearly got me there.
If you genuinely read the posts and cannot see it then hey ho. We will have to agree to differ on our interpretations of people's postings.
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis. Respect costs nothing but is priceless.
It depends on the time of the week. For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country. It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons. Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.But Frank, there are other things, such as event signage and the presence of other cyclists on the road, that greatly enhance drivers' awareness of the presence of riders. I've felt pretty safe racing the E2 courses (though the spearhead sliproads are always a bit scary), but would never dream of riding on the A11 or A14 recreationally!
I wish those bloody persistent knockers of Steve's gargantuan efforts would bugger off and crawl under a stone too.
FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.
Steve was on the road until midnight again, which may be a sensible thing as the later starts will avoid the deepest frosts in the days to come. What's not so encouraging was that it was for "only" 197.5 miles.
I do think modern traffic conditions mitigate against a successful attempt by anyone in the UK nowadays, whatever their ability. Godwin's ability to utilise fast relatively empty roads like the A1 whilst drafting must have helped enormously with his mileage. Similarly Kurt was able to use relatively quiet (and flat) roads. Steve using say the A14 these days isn't such an attractive proposition.
It depends on the time of the week. For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country. It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons. Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.
Steve was on the road until midnight again, which may be a sensible thing as the later starts will avoid the deepest frosts in the days to come. What's not so encouraging was that it was for "only" 197.5 miles.
I do think modern traffic conditions mitigate against a successful attempt by anyone in the UK nowadays, whatever their ability. Godwin's ability to utilise fast relatively empty roads like the A1 whilst drafting must have helped enormously with his mileage. Similarly Kurt was able to use relatively quiet (and flat) roads. Steve using say the A14 these days isn't such an attractive proposition.
It depends on the time of the week. For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country. It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons. Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.
Hi Frank,
Amid the interpersonal posts that are getting a bit dull - Im finding some of your posts really interesting.
How come that stretch of road is so fast? Is it sheltered or just nicely undulating or what?
BTW, could the reason you are unwilling / unable to quote any posts that are "deliberately trying to undermine Steve's attempt" be because they don't exist?Plenty of people think the current attempt is doomed (some have given logical reasons, some have made their concern for Steve clear). It's hardly surprising when they make many posts that discourage the current attempt.
Steve was on the road until midnight again, which may be a sensible thing as the later starts will avoid the deepest frosts in the days to come. What's not so encouraging was that it was for "only" 197.5 miles.
I do think modern traffic conditions mitigate against a successful attempt by anyone in the UK nowadays, whatever their ability. Godwin's ability to utilise fast relatively empty roads like the A1 whilst drafting must have helped enormously with his mileage. Similarly Kurt was able to use relatively quiet (and flat) roads. Steve using say the A14 these days isn't such an attractive proposition.
It depends on the time of the week. For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country. It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons. Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.
Hi Frank,
Amid the interpersonal posts that are getting a bit dull - Im finding some of your posts really interesting.
How come that stretch of road is so fast? Is it sheltered or just nicely undulating or what?
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis. Respect costs nothing but is priceless.
Understand that, but Steve could go along and ride while there is a TT on. That would give him perhaps a dozen shots at it per year with other riders and signs.It depends on the time of the week. For example, the A11/A14 between FourWentWays and Red Lodge is just about the fastest stretch of tarmac for cycling in the country. It is used a lot for time trials - but only before 9am on Sunday mornings and on Saturday afternoons. Two laps of that on a Sunday morning could give Steve 100 miles in close to 5 hours, without needing more power.But Frank, there are other things, such as event signage and the presence of other cyclists on the road, that greatly enhance drivers' awareness of the presence of riders. I've felt pretty safe racing the E2 courses (though the spearhead sliproads are always a bit scary), but would never dream of riding on the A11 or A14 recreationally!
I think I've addressed this in my post (n-2).I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis. Respect costs nothing but is priceless.
Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously. You then call for more respect. Now I've heard it all.
Some thing I thought of at the start of the attempt was that most of us know a 20-50 mile looped section near to us that is 'fast'. Many of us also know 4 or 5 of these that we would use to go 'fast' depending on the wind and weather. I have a normal 'fast; 40 mile route that is great, but it no longer becomes 'fast' with certain wind directions as the really long exposed sections would become a slog instead of being 25-30mph with very little effort
I have been surprised that Steve hasn't used many fast loops and has instead gone with 'point to point' or 'out and backs'. When he has used roads near me (quite often) I have been impressed that he has used a number of the 'fast roads' to pass through (which shows how much road knowledge he has stored up top) but he has then strayed out of the area onto roads that I think are a real slog to get towards his end destination.... and after looking back at the stats for those days his pace has plummeted after he left the area.
I would like to see his team ask local riders to suggest some 5-30 mile loops that are fast in certain wind directions.
I am not an experienced rider but I could easily give 3 local loops, each favoring a different prevailing wind, that are much faster than what Steve rides when he comes to my area. Some of you lot must have an absolute encyclopedic knowledge of your local area. The trick would be to look at which way the wind was from Milton Keynes...then use that as a tail wind to head towards a recommended loop that also favored that wind direction ...that way he gets a boost there, then gets a favored wind on the loop. Then maybe ask for a car transfer home too.
If there was a database of maybe 10-20 routes built up that are within 20-30 miles of Steves home then he could trial them and chose each day based on the wind direction, then head to that loop and get some cheap, fast miles in. Once a network of these loops was built the money in the bank could be used to have food provided for Steve in that area and maybe find a local sports physio to provide some massage at the start and finish?
Maybe this has been looked into and ruled out or its just not how Steve wants to go. For me that's the only way I could see someone in this country sustaining a crack at this effort and keeping the average speed up.
Some thing I thought of at the start of the attempt was that most of us know a 20-50 mile looped section near to us that is 'fast'. Many of us also know 4 or 5 of these that we would use to go 'fast' depending on the wind and weather. I have a normal 'fast; 40 mile route that is great, but it
Maybe this has been looked into and ruled out or its just not how Steve wants to go. For me that's the only way I could see someone in this country sustaining a crack at this effort and keeping the average speed up.
Some thing I thought of at the start of the attempt was that most of us know a 20-50 mile looped section near to us that is 'fast'. Many of us also know 4 or 5 of these that we would use to go 'fast' depending on the wind and weather. I have a normal 'fast; 40 mile route that is great, but it no longer becomes 'fast' with certain wind directions as the really long exposed sections would become a slog instead of being 25-30mph with very little effort
I have been surprised that Steve hasn't used many fast loops and has instead gone with 'point to point' or 'out and backs'. When he has used roads near me (quite often) I have been impressed that he has used a number of the 'fast roads' to pass through (which shows how much road knowledge he has stored up top) but he has then strayed out of the area onto roads that I think are a real slog to get towards his end destination.... and after looking back at the stats for those days his pace has plummeted after he left the area.
I would like to see his team ask local riders to suggest some 5-30 mile loops that are fast in certain wind directions.
I am not an experienced rider but I could easily give 3 local loops, each favoring a different prevailing wind, that are much faster than what Steve rides when he comes to my area. Some of you lot must have an absolute encyclopedic knowledge of your local area. The trick would be to look at which way the wind was from Milton Keynes...then use that as a tail wind to head towards a recommended loop that also favored that wind direction ...that way he gets a boost there, then gets a favored wind on the loop. Then maybe ask for a car transfer home too.
If there was a database of maybe 10-20 routes built up that are within 20-30 miles of Steves home then he could trial them and chose each day based on the wind direction, then head to that loop and get some cheap, fast miles in. Once a network of these loops was built the money in the bank could be used to have food provided for Steve in that area and maybe find a local sports physio to provide some massage at the start and finish?
Maybe this has been looked into and ruled out or its just not how Steve wants to go. For me that's the only way I could see someone in this country sustaining a crack at this effort and keeping the average speed up.
There is such a database, built up over almost 100 years, by thousands of cyclists looking for fast roads. It's called the list of time trial courses.
I did five long interviews with Steve, and he consistently mentioned that his Fenland loop has evolved to use the shelter of hedged lanes inland, and to use tailwind assistance on the open sections. He has specifically cited Thetford Forest as sheltered. He's optimised the routes available to him.
It might be interesting to send a fit rider around that circuit to see how fast it is. I suspect that Steve has honed a fast route through continuous experiment.
...
Travelodging seems to be better than hosting. It opens up my options a lot more so I can use the best roads for the wind conditions rather than have to do loops into headwinds etc
...
The fact that exceeding the record remains within Steve’s reach and capability means that this thread has a long way to go.
Absolutely - and so does Steve.
It just seems to me that many on this sub-board are keen to write his attempt off. Threads on his days are tinged with posts of "Only xxx miles well that was not enough" and "I can't see how he can do this based on that" or " I would have thought he should have been managing...."While lots of us here have spent a lot of time on the what-ifs, I don’t think even the most negative of posters has suggested that there is any self-doubt on Steve’s part.
Perhaps not and to be honest I have not read everything posted but I am sick of reading posts with a theme around damning his efforts with feint praise or even suggesting that he is in some way in denial (for example).
FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.
H
FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.
H
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis. Respect costs nothing but is priceless.
Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously. You then call for more respect. Now I've heard it all.
FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.
H
Nope! As is alluded above, this isn't a 'Go Steve' cheerleading thread. This is a 'thoughts on the record attempt' thread, and those thoughts can be negative, critical, carry suggestions and all kinds of other content that may well not fill close friends of Steve (or Kurt or Bruce or Bill or Kajsa) with deep joy. And that's tough, Hummers. Neither you nor Steve gets a free pass from criticism just because the project is worthy and creditable.
This is a public challenge, and in Steve's case, it's publicly funded. That makes Steve, in particular, open to the public commentary that we see here, and some of that commentary will not be complimentary or make comfortable reading. If the challenge was going well and there were no grounds for criticism, I might have some sympathy with your outburst. But that's not the case; this challenge is on a knife-edge (at best), and there are legitimate concerns that it won't work and that there may be reasons for that which could have been tackled earlier - or by stopping now and starting agin at a later date. Whether those opinions are correct or not will only be known in time, but it's anyone's right to state them in this forum. And neither you nor anyone else has the right to demand that those opinions aren't expressed.
History has shown that creating such a thread is asking for trouble. (I've explained my reasoning on this before .. to not much popular acclaim! ).
FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.
H
Nope! As is alluded above, this isn't a 'Go Steve' cheerleading thread. This is a 'thoughts on the record attempt' thread, and those thoughts can be negative, critical, carry suggestions and all kinds of other content that may well not fill close friends of Steve (or Kurt or Bruce or Bill or Kajsa) with deep joy. And that's tough, Hummers. Neither you nor Steve gets a free pass from criticism just because the project is worthy and creditable.
History has shown that creating such a thread is asking for trouble. (I've explained my reasoning on this before .. to not much popular acclaim! ).
FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.
H
Nope! As is alluded above, this isn't a 'Go Steve' cheerleading thread. This is a 'thoughts on the record attempt' thread, and those thoughts can be negative, critical, carry suggestions and all kinds of other content that may well not fill close friends of Steve (or Kurt or Bruce or Bill or Kajsa) with deep joy. And that's tough, Hummers. Neither you nor Steve gets a free pass from criticism just because the project is worthy and creditable.
But I just don't buy this "title of the thread" defence. If I created a
"Reasons I think Hummers is a twunt" thread,
would that justify posts that were honest and forthright on that topic?
(Or should I be more "excellent" and call it "Do you think Hummers has stopped being a twunt?" )
To be fair to Hummers, his post was *very* out of character.
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis. Respect costs nothing but is priceless.
Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously. You then call for more respect. Now I've heard it all.
If you read my posts properly you will see that I have consistently said that it seems to me that some posts are designed to undermine Steve's record attempt. I believe this to be true. I offer an open opinion whereas you, in my opinion, appear to be rude and dismissive. Perhaps my post was not so ridiculous after all.
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis. Respect costs nothing but is priceless.
Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously. You then call for more respect. Now I've heard it all.
If you read my posts properly you will see that I have consistently said that it seems to me that some posts are designed to undermine Steve's record attempt. I believe this to be true. I offer an open opinion whereas you, in my opinion, appear to be rude and dismissive. Perhaps my post was not so ridiculous after all.
In my opinion, opining that other people are posting maliciously is a very rude thing to do.
There, does that suit you better?
If you are sincere ...
I'd appreciate it if Phartiphukborlz, yourself and others didn't use words such as "ridiculous" unless of course this is how you address your family and friends, your colleagues and peers, and even strangers on a daily basis. Respect costs nothing but is priceless.
Your talk of "deliberately trying to undermine ... " is accusing other people of posting maliciously. You then call for more respect. Now I've heard it all.
If you read my posts properly you will see that I have consistently said that it seems to me that some posts are designed to undermine Steve's record attempt. I believe this to be true. I offer an open opinion whereas you, in my opinion, appear to be rude and dismissive. Perhaps my post was not so ridiculous after all.
In my opinion, opining that other people are posting maliciously is a very rude thing to do.
There, does that suit you better?
BTW, could the reason you are unwilling / unable to quote any posts that are "deliberately trying to undermine Steve's attempt" be because they don't exist?Plenty of people think the current attempt is doomed (some have given logical reasons, some have made their concern for Steve clear). It's hardly surprising when they make many posts that discourage the current attempt.
(There are also posts that IMO are just trolling, or just pessimistic with no constructive content; but I accept that these exist in a grey area, and you/I/PB will rarely come to agreement on them, no matter how much quoting we do! )
Seems to me there is a theory, that voicing the opinion that he is not likely to get the record, might be a self-fulfilling prophecy - i.e. speculating that he won't achieve it will in itself make him less likely to.
Could be that those who are aggreived at postulation that he will fall short are doing so because they believe that that will in itself hamper his chances.
In other words, if this theory is true, then being aggreived at such pessimistic evaluations would appear justified, but those who don't believe it have difficulty understanding why non-cheerleading posts get people's backs up.
If you are sincere ...
No, I'm lying through my teeth ::-)
At the end of the day, Steve knows what he has to achieve, the bar's been set. Only he knows how/whether he can do it. All the mental masturbation that's going on here is insignificant to him and I don't think it will make one jot of a difference to his outlook.