Thanks for correcting my figures. And the total mileage is useful context. Istr that, for the UK, you would accept a serious injury or death every 0.3million km so this is more but not by an order of magnitude as there are a lot of Kms ridden without incident.
However I believe that three of the four were in Kansas. The roads are flat, straight and boring there, so the belief it is drivers not concentrating that is behind it.
1 KSI per 300000km is really high when you think about it. If everyone on this forum cycled 100km a week, (5000km per year), we could expect one in 60 of us to be killed or serious injured every year. I've already nearly done 5000km this year (4800km so far), At this rate, I'd expect to die or be serious injured on the bike once every 30 years... In which case I shouldn't be worrying about a pension...
It is really hard to find an accurate KSI per unit distance number. 1 in 300k seems low. I'd hope it's nearer 1 in 500k or even 1 in 1M.
What I can tell is that the Netherlands had 206 cycling deaths last year (201 for car occupants). The Dutch cycle an average of 900km per person. Population is 17,084,788.
So scratching some maths on the back of an envelope:
17084788*900
=15,376,309,200km per year.
divided by 206 = 74,642,278.
Or one death per 74.6 million km. (giga meters?). Which is 149x fewer deaths than the TABR number.
Can someone double check my maths?
One death per 74.6gigameters is much more reassuring, perhaps I should worry more about that pension...
J
PS There has been a big spike in the number of cyclists killed in the Netherlands in recent years, and they have been almost exclusively in the over 65 age bracket. The rise in number of e bikes has seen people who would have previously been limited in how much they cycle due to getting old, are now riding e bikes, this coupled with slower reflexes and the general trait that older people when they fall down, they don't get up so good, has lead to the spike. As the primary downside of e-bikes in this context is mitigated, i.e. they get lighter, we can expect more older people to use them for longer. Tho if this is also off setting a reduced number of people dying of sedentary lifestyle related illness, I have no data.
PPS And by e-bikes I mean pedal assist sub 250W, max 25kph machines, not anything more powerful.