Yet Another Cycling Forum
General Category => Audax => Topic started by: Phil W on 16 February, 2017, 01:42:36 pm
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Now open to all riders.
We took this decision this morning since everything has been running / going fine this week.
You'll have your email or just access via the rider options on the main menu. Access via English version of site the first time after that login from any language version for subsequent visits.
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Cheers.
Am I right in thinking if you want the earliest possible start time, simply picking "9 am" (and losing the ballot) could get you allocated to a much later start time, assuming the rest of the morning also ends up oversubscribed?
Also, what's the closing date for the ballot?
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The less oversubscribed the better your chances of getting your preference. Anything undersubscribed you'd be guaranteed that start once we lock start times. So 09:00am not a brilliant choice looking at the demand that continues to rise.
We will lock preferred start times end of March.
You'll know by mid April your allocated start time
Then you'll have till the end of April to adjust any bag drops.
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I like it.
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Just been in and done my business. I have to say I am so impressed at the professionalism and ease of use of the web site - chapeau to all involved. If that's indicative of the event as a whole, PBP should look to its laurels ;)
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It seems to work well - kudos to Phil W.
The bit I like is looking at others' choices, and deciding not to join the pile-up by selecting a 10.30am start ;)
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Personally, I think picking 9am to start is only worth it if you are relaxed about getting 2.45pm instead.
Pondering this a bit more today, I think once I come allocate times there's merit in reallocating people from the least over-subscribed groups first, and moving them to their nearest free slot. At the end of the process you would have people from the 9am and 6am slots filling up all the remaining slots, likely to be 7:30am and 7:45am, and 2:30pm to 3:30pm. This approach might nudge people towards more caution and perhaps result in fewer surprises.
A couple of people have decided to leave the matter to fate. I think that's a grand idea. That means they'll start late and enjoy the controls at Spalding and Louth.
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I have to say I am so impressed at the professionalism and ease of use of the web site - chapeau to all involved.
This. The whole process is ridiculously slick, putting a lot of professional outfits' web offerings to shame - chapaeu indeed.
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Personally, I think picking 9am to start is only worth it if you are relaxed about getting 2.45pm instead.
Pondering this a bit more today, I think once I come allocate times there's merit in reallocating people from the least over-subscribed groups first, and moving them to their nearest free slot. At the end of the process you would have people from the 9am and 6am slots filling up all the remaining slots, likely to be 7:30am and 7:45am, and 2:30pm to 3:30pm. This approach might nudge people towards more caution and perhaps result in fewer surprises.
A couple of people have decided to leave the matter to fate. I think that's a grand idea. That means they'll start late and enjoy the controls at Spalding and Louth.
That is a splendid idea Alwyn.. greatest oversubscribed get reallocated last .. love it.
How about a new extra kink .. £50 to each of .. you Phil and me and you can get your preferred start time .. reckon we would make a mint here.
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How about a new extra kink .. £50 to each of .. you Phil and me and you can get your preferred start time .. reckon we would make a mint here.
You might make a bit more if you introduced fees for the beds, with Easyjet-style dynamic pricing
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No .. that would not work .. cash in hand would go to the controllers .. we need cash for our efforts .. see Phils FB post about questions that are answered on the web site already .. cost the questioner a £100 .. and if on the web site more than 5 months ago then it is £500
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It is interesting watching riders pile into the 9:00am start. They've now got approx. a 41% chance of getting that start, and a 59% chance they will be flung to the far reaches of start times. Those odds will only get worse. That's just for single riders and teams of two, larger teams have even worse odds.
Bag Drops is also interesting. I don't tie bag drops to sleep locations but many do. If that is indicative many are going for a Pocklington and Brampton sleep strategy. Bag drops are generally also linked to showers. If it's anything like '13 that could be interesting. Me, I'd stick my bag drops somewhere quiet where I don't queue for a hot shower and I have the pick of the beds if I want to stop. Of course, a lot of that is tied to them thinking they are starting at 09:00am and they'll need to change all that in April when many find they have been allocated a late afternoon start or some such.
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Are we expected to take showers ?.... that's a new one on me :P
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Are we expected to take showers ?.... that's a new one on me :P
Yes, ready for the kit inspection at controls (oh eeeerh)
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No doubt when I lock preferred start times someone will pipe up and say they didn't have enough time to choose one :facepalm: :facepalm: ??? ??? ???
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Bag Drops is also interesting. I don't tie bag drops to sleep locations but many do. If that is indicative many are going for a Pocklington and Brampton sleep strategy. Bag drops are generally also linked to showers. If it's anything like '13 that could be interesting. Me, I'd stick my bag drops somewhere quiet where I don't queue for a hot shower and I have the pick of the beds if I want to stop. Of course, a lot of that is tied to them thinking they are starting at 09:00am and they'll need to change all that in April when many find they have been allocated a late afternoon start or some such.
I think Brampton is a favoured stop for bags because it's the most northerly control that you visit twice.
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Are we expected to take showers ?.... that's a new one on me :P
And you are also expected to change for Dinner when partaking of that offer at Controls.
No shower = eat from the hedgerow and sleep in the hedgerow!
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I'm confused. Doesn't take a lot, really.
"The less oversubscribed the better your chances of getting your preference. Anything undersubscribed you'd be guaranteed that start once we lock start times ... we will lock preferred start times end of March."
If I pick an undersubscribed start time now but, come the end of March it's oversubscribed, what was the point of me picking a time now? Surely it makes sense to wait until just before the end of March to pick a start time.
Or have I missed a fairly obvious point? Which, given the week I've just had, would be unsurprising.
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Pretty sure that it's the level of under/oversubscription in March that will count, so my approach is going to be to pick a time now, then have another look shortly before the choices are locked. If I remember, that is.
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Bag drops are generally also linked to showers. If it's anything like '13 that could be interesting.
I saw things no man should see :sick:
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I'm confused. Doesn't take a lot, really.
"The less oversubscribed the better your chances of getting your preference. Anything undersubscribed you'd be guaranteed that start once we lock start times ... we will lock preferred start times end of March."
If I pick an undersubscribed start time now but, come the end of March it's oversubscribed, what was the point of me picking a time now? Surely it makes sense to wait until just before the end of March to pick a start time.
Or have I missed a fairly obvious point? Which, given the week I've just had, would be unsurprising.
I think you have got it .. combine this with Danial's suggestion that the least oversubscribed are the first reallocated .. and every reason IF YOU ARE INDIFFERENT TO YOUR START TIME .. to leave it to the end before putting in for your slot.. but if you feel the need for 9.00am and will tolerate 4.00pm .. then you might as well go for 9.00am
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Look, you're getting this all wrong. What you should do is state that the start times will be at 15 minute intervals from 06.00. Then we can all queue up from about 02.00 and hope to be away by 10.00.
I'm sure I recall that (not) working well somewhere before for many years....
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I predict a considerable amount of time-slot-rejigging in the days/hours/minutes leading up to the moment the starts are locked.
It would be handy, therefore, to know exactly when the lock will be applied.
Might make an interesting animation showing how the redistribution occurs. 8)
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Last minute rejigging depends on whether you think the riders are both intelligent enough and able to assess the odds of getting their preferred start time versus being kicked out to a time they do not care for.
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Alwyn has floated the idea that the least oversubscribed slots are reallocated first which is interesting ... but I think the slow down is just due to the initial burst of enthusiasm to get your slot choice in .. without realising that there is no first come first served . The sum of the red dots total 1500 .. so they are all going to be full eventually
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So why bother having folk put start times and why not just randomly allocate times?
I have no doubt some folk will be a little miffed if they put a time that was clearly undersubscribed at the time of requesting, only to find they are subsequently bumped to another start time.
Fully realise the enormous workload and fully support all the work the LEL them are doing, but some will believe that going for a time with plenty of spaces would expect that time being allocated, but if the 'first come first' served is not a factor, and you could be changed from 0900 to 1600, then just have a lottery for start times.
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I think it makes no difference to me if I get bumped out of my chosen slot. I picked a late one, plan to stop early on day one and finish as late as I dare on the Friday. Being pushed to an earlier time just means I'll ride further on the Sunday.
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The website says:
"If a start time is oversubscribed, we will run a ballot for it. If you’re in a group and the group gets lucky, the entire group will get that start time.*
All unsuccessful riders will then be placed into a draw for the earliest available slot that still has spare places. We’ll then repeat the process until we have filled every slot and allocated everyone a start time."
That seems a fair system, can't see any reason to meddle with it
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It would be handy, therefore, to know exactly when the lock will be applied.
+1 to this.
I'd also add a request for a clarification on how exactly the ballot and re-assignment of places is going to work when that is decided.
I see in the web site (https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/ (https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/)) that "We have a system to make sure that if you’re in a group of 2, you have the same chance of getting your preferred start time as anyone else. For groups of three or more, the odds are less favourable, but only slightly so. Any group larger than six risks being split up or placed in an unpopular slot.". I personally would be interested in learning more about how less favourable are the chances if you enter in a group to decide whether it make sense to my group to split in groups of 2 or just keep it as a group of 6.
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Odds for a solo rider?
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Please don't announce the absolute lockout time or even the week for that matter. We've all got plenty of time to choose and choose again and decide if we want to play the lottery. Giving a time will just delay choices and cause loads of people to be poised over the mouse at 00.00.00 minus one second. These people will be in many time zones around the world. This has been admirably avoided til now. Late March is a long way off. Decide by sometime well beforehand. Help the orgs.
As far as teams - we have been told the chances are only very slightly reduced the bigger the team gets. Will it affect a teams decision to know if that's 3% or 4% and the mechanics of it? It's more important to choose a less oversubscribed slot than to split the team. at the moment a team of two has about a 40% chance of getting 0900 if the numbers were frozen now. This will get worse.
A team of three has a VERY slightly lesser chance but it's not that crucial. By choosing a later time the odds can be massively reduced. Right now 0915 has a 66% chance and 1015 about 90%.
By the way, for this propaganda I expect a choice of start time. 0900 please ;D
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That seems a fair system, can't see any reason to meddle with it
I agree.
I'd also add a request for a clarification on how exactly the ballot and re-assignment of places is going to work when that is decided.
Hmm ... I reckon Alwyn + team should be left to determine the most-fair system — in their opinion — without being held to account for it. My reasoning is this: if they declare up-front what the system will be then riders will game it — I am ALREADY gaming it by keeping my selection in a less-popular slot. Everyone who fails to get their preferred slot will grumble.
Then again, if they DON'T declare what the system is then everyone is at the mercy of their whim and whimsy — most riders will get their preferred choice, but some will fail and will grumble.
They can't avoid the grumbling, so let them choose their preferred grumble.
In 2013 I selected 8am, because it slotted in well with riding the Prologue. However, EVERYONE wanted the early slots, so the team — and this is NOT a grumble — decided to inconvenience EVERYONE by filling the slots from the earliest to "as soon as possible", and I got bumped from 8:00 to 9:15. C'est la vie. I had more time for breakfast, finished with a handful of minutes to spare, and I enjoyed the ride immensely! :thumbsup: :)
Let them get on with it — their problems are hard enough without being held to public account for something they don't yet fully understand or have data for to make decisions against. For my two-pennies, they don't get a chance to practice and optimise the process, it happens just once every four years, this is a difficult problem, even when they have the data in front of them then it will STILL be a hard problem — and the data won't be static until they lock the start-time choices.
At the end of the day some riders WILL be inconvenienced by having to start 15, 30, 45 minutes or even an hour later than they had hoped for, but it's still just a [very long] bike ride, the distance does NOT get longer with a later start, the route will be the same, the controls will still be serving food, etc., etc. Relax and enjoy!
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Giving a time will just delay choices and cause loads of people to be poised over the mouse at 00.00.00 minus one second.
Like buying something on eBay ::-) ;D
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:thumbsup: :thumbsup: to what Wilkyboy says. There's no perfect way to allocate start times, especially as rider numbers increase year on year. If I recall, PBP had a first-to-the-mouse system, which was fine if, like me, you happened to be on line use as the slots became available but was probably more challenging for those in other continents. I'm amazed at how much flexibility the organisers have been able to build in to the system. Of course, there will be some oversubscribed slots, but that's the way it goes.
Compared with where we were 8 years ago, this LEL is, to purloin a phrase, a finely-tuned machine - and, in this case, the wheels aren't likely to fall off at any moment.
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At the end of the day some riders WILL be inconvenienced by having to start 15, 30, 45 minutes or even an hour later than they had hoped for, but it's still just a [very long] bike ride, the distance does NOT get longer with a later start, the route will be the same, the controls will still be serving food, etc., etc. Relax and enjoy!
Potentially the unlucky 9.00 starters are already going to be kicked back to 11.15 at the earliest .. and as more riders make their choices .( never mind Alwyns comment that the least oversubscribed might be reallocated first ). I would bet that will go out to 2.00pm. there are some fascinating dynamics here .. if i was a 9.00 start ,,.. do i pull out now and go for 11.30 .. or do I expect quite a lot of my fellow starters to pull out so that my odds get better .. so I stick in .. or even keep an eye on it .. and opt back in when i judge that I am prepared to take a 2 out 3 chance . Dont forget that the graph has the number of available places in total .. so a lot of people have not indicated a choice yet
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It would be handy, therefore, to know exactly when the lock will be applied.
+1 to this.
I'd also add a request for a clarification on how exactly the ballot and re-assignment of places is going to work when that is decided.
I see in the web site (https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/ (https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/)) that "We have a system to make sure that if you’re in a group of 2, you have the same chance of getting your preferred start time as anyone else. For groups of three or more, the odds are less favourable, but only slightly so. Any group larger than six risks being split up or placed in an unpopular slot.". I personally would be interested in learning more about how less favourable are the chances if you enter in a group to decide whether it make sense to my group to split in groups of 2 or just keep it as a group of 6.
Phil has already said that we are not telling you when the lock will be applied .. late march is all you will know .. and just make up your minds about your group .. unless you are all expecting to be on the time limit .. those with an earlier start ,,.. cam just wait for the rest of the group if it is that important to you.
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I will be tossing the lock coin from around 18th March, heads, tails, heads, tails...
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I will be tossing the lock coin from around 18th March, heads, tails, heads, tails...
This is completely clear for me now. Thanks for sharing it.
The reason I was asking for clarification on how the re-assignment of places is going to work and how group odds are managed was not to suggest one method or the other; whatever method is used by the organization will be fine by me; the last I want is to add more work to the organization. I just think that being clear on how the re-assignment will work will help rider to make better informed decisions. Let me try to illustrate it with an example.
If re-assignment of places works as I understand what is explained in the website (https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/ (https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/)) anyone in the 9:00 will have some chance on getting any start time from 11:15 to 16:00 (as of now, 11:15 is first slot with available places).
If re-assignment is done as least oversubscribed might be reallocated first, the earliest possible start for someone that does not get a place in the 9:00 group ballot is 15:15. So, as of today, such rider would have around 35% chance of getting 9:00 start and if he/she does not get a place in the 9:00 slot he/she will have 100% chance of getting 15:15 or later start time.
If you are a rider in the 11:00 slot, with the first method you still have a chance of getting a 16:00 start time. With the second method you start time won't be later than 11:30. These are two very different outcomes which I'd guess should influence how riders are/will select their requested slots.
Again, I'm not arguing the merits of any of these approaches (or any other for that matter), just saying that clarifying the approach that will be followed would help riders to make better informed decisions which, I hope, would lead to less unexpected surprises.
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Disregarding for a moment the hour of the start time and focusing on the minutes, I see an interesting general pattern: *00 start times are the most favored: maybe because they're a more obvious choice, maybe because while riding it's easier to make calculations (how long have I been riding?) based on a *00 start time. At the moment, the only exception to this rule is 1100 that has less preferences than 1045 (but still more than 1115, and 1045 has more available places). On the other hand, *45 start times are in general the less favored, I figure some sort of psychological bias is underlying.
It'll be even more interesting when the last 400-500 riders will join in and make their choice, adding pressure to oversubscribed and nearly-oversubscribed groups: will the "as early as possible" pattern eventually prevail, or will minutes still have some influence?
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Just another thing: if I summed them up correctly (I'm not sure, it's just red dots on a chart), there are currently 1475 available places, and 70 of them are in the invitation-only 0500 group. Potentially, all selectable groups might get oversubscribed... People eager to have control on their start time are going to enjoy a very, very interesting month from now on! And they should be very grateful to those that have decided not to make a choice!
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If re-assignment is done as least oversubscribed might be reallocated first, the earliest possible start for someone that does not get a place in the 9:00 group ballot is 15:15. So, as of today, such rider would have around 35% chance of getting 9:00 start and if he/she does not get a place in the 9:00 slot he/she will have 100% chance of getting 15:15 or later start time.
I don't think I agree with your working here. Focusing only on the 116h start times, there are currently 218 people who won't get their chosen morning slot, who can all be reallocated into the 230 places available in the 11:15 to 13:30 window; in whichever order TPTB choose. Unless the remaining ~300 people who haven't chosen a slot all pile on to the morning slots, I don't think that's going to change hugely.
(I'm assuming the "no preferred start time" people will be allocated last, all getting afternoon slots)
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Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going... :demon:
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Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going... :demon:
'cos some of us are tight-fisted buggers. We've paid for 116 and a bit hours and we're gonna make sure we get to use them all.
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Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going... :demon:
cos the MR24 is the week before and I might be a bit broken
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Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going... :demon:
If the 100hr option was available in the afternoon I'd be tempted, but my priority is passing by Castle Howard in the first light of day while still heading North. This is not possible with current 100hr start times, not in HTFU mode at least...
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If re-assignment is done as least oversubscribed might be reallocated first, the earliest possible start for someone that does not get a place in the 9:00 group ballot is 15:15. So, as of today, such rider would have around 35% chance of getting 9:00 start and if he/she does not get a place in the 9:00 slot he/she will have 100% chance of getting 15:15 or later start time.
I don't think I agree with your working here. Focusing only on the 116h start times, there are currently 218 people who won't get their chosen morning slot, who can all be reallocated into the 230 places available in the 11:15 to 13:30 window; in whichever order TPTB choose. Unless the remaining ~300 people who haven't chosen a slot all pile on to the morning slots, I don't think that's going to change hugely.
(I'm assuming the "no preferred start time" people will be allocated last, all getting afternoon slots)
It has become much less than 218: if I got it right, somebody's just raised the number of available places... we'll have great fun in the next weeks!
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To simplify our admin .. doing away with one out , one in, from now on .. we have taken 1650ish entries ( not totally clear as there are some medical queries around etc) . Our previous experience says that there will only be 1500 +/- on the start line. As the drop outs will come during May .. when they still get a refund, we have to have 1650 slots now .. hence the recent uplift of the extra 150 places. From experience there will not be 1650 on the start line.
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Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going... :demon:
cos the MR24 is the week before and I might be a bit broken
Brave. I'm going on holiday then.
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To simplify our admin .. doing away with one out , one in, from now on .. we have taken 1650ish entries ( not totally clear as there are some medical queries around etc) . Our previous experience says that there will only be 1500 +/- on the start line. As the drop outs will come during May .. when they still get a refund, we have to have 1650 slots now .. hence the recent uplift of the extra 150 places. From experience there will not be 1650 on the start line.
Thank you very much for the explanation.
I guess the best thing now is to assume that drop outs will be evenly spread through the groups. After the event, it'll be possible to check how close (or far...) from truth this hypothesis was.
I heartily hope that nobody is going to cancel just because of a wrong start time, at the same time I think it'll be interesting to investigate the statistical relationship between reallocation and drop outs.
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Why don't people HTFU and take the 100hr option - plenty of places still going... :demon:
My thinking exactly. I think I can get around in 100hrs, and I don't want to get up too early, so 8am is the charm.
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To simplify our admin .. doing away with one out , one in, from now on .. we have taken 1650ish entries ( not totally clear as there are some medical queries around etc) . Our previous experience says that there will only be 1500 +/- on the start line. As the drop outs will come during May .. when they still get a refund, we have to have 1650 slots now .. hence the recent uplift of the extra 150 places. From experience there will not be 1650 on the start line.
Thank you very much for the explanation.
I guess the best thing now is to assume that drop outs will be evenly spread through the groups. After the event, it'll be possible to check how close (or far...) from truth this hypothesis was.
I heartily hope that nobody is going to cancel just because of a wrong start time, at the same time I think it'll be interesting to investigate the statistical relationship between reallocation and drop outs.
going up 10% from 1500 to 1650 ..puts an extra 4 or 5 riders on the 40 base per 15 minute start time for the 1500 riders ..so even if none dropped out .it would be 45 per start rather than 40 .. do you think you would actually notice that ?
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They will now
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Absolutely, I was just considering that the goal is to spread the riders as evenly as possible, so that the controls are in the best conditions to serve them. Given this goal, if you knew that different start times had different drop-out rates (because "afternoon people" are more/less fickle than "morning people", or any other reason...), this info could be taken into consideration. Otherwise, the best solution is indeed to assume the same drop-out rate in all groups.
Then real life will happen, as it always does.
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Absolutely, I was just considering that the goal is to spread the riders as evenly as possible, so that the controls are in the best conditions to serve them. Given this goal, if you knew that different start times had different drop-out rates (because "afternoon people" are more/less fickle than "morning people", or any other reason...), this info could be taken into consideration. Otherwise, the best solution is indeed to assume the same drop-out rate in all groups.
Then real life will happen, as it always does.
Barking mad .. all starts will have riders riding at different speeds .. we have no control or knowledge of this .. so whether some starts end up with 35 riders and some have 42.. is of no significance what so ever .
If you will drop out because you have a 15.30 start rather than the 9.00 that you wanted .. let us know .. and you can become one of the first 150 drop outs that we anticpate
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I'm hoping this isn't a SFQ, but when is the latest we can order merchandise?
I've seen in the Ts and Cs it says "Order acceptance and the completion of the contract between you and us will take place by the end of May 2017 at the latest; but may be at an earlier date." but I can't see a 'last orders' bit.
Is it also the end of May?
John
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Absolutely, I was just considering that the goal is to spread the riders as evenly as possible, so that the controls are in the best conditions to serve them. Given this goal, if you knew that different start times had different drop-out rates (because "afternoon people" are more/less fickle than "morning people", or any other reason...), this info could be taken into consideration. Otherwise, the best solution is indeed to assume the same drop-out rate in all groups.
Then real life will happen, as it always does.
Barking mad .. all starts will have riders riding at different speeds .. we have no control or knowledge of this .. so whether some starts end up with 35 riders and some have 42.. is of no significance what so ever .
If you will drop out because you have a 15.30 start rather than the 9.00 that you wanted .. let us know .. and you can become one of the first 150 drop outs that we anticpate
Dear Fidgetbuzz,
I'm really sorry for the misunderstanding. I really appreciate the huge effort you're pouring into LEL and the last thing I might want is to annoy you. I don't know if it's a language problem, if it's because I can easily become pedant when numbers get involved in a subject, or if it's something else. What did I write to spark your reaction?
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Absolutely, I was just considering that the goal is to spread the riders as evenly as possible, so that the controls are in the best conditions to serve them. Given this goal, if you knew that different start times had different drop-out rates (because "afternoon people" are more/less fickle than "morning people", or any other reason...), this info could be taken into consideration. Otherwise, the best solution is indeed to assume the same drop-out rate in all groups.
Then real life will happen, as it always does.
Barking mad .. all starts will have riders riding at different speeds .. we have no control or knowledge of this .. so whether some starts end up with 35 riders and some have 42.. is of no significance what so ever .
If you will drop out because you have a 15.30 start rather than the 9.00 that you wanted .. let us know .. and you can become one of the first 150 drop outs that we anticpate
Dear Fidgetbuzz,
I'm really sorry for the misunderstanding. I really appreciate the huge effort you're pouring into LEL and the last thing I might want is to annoy you. I don't know if it's a language problem, if it's because I can easily become pedant when numbers get involved in a subject, or if it's something else. What did I write to spark your reaction?
It's not a language barrier brao and I thought you made a perfectly sound point.
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Peoples, let's cool all this down.
It's simple. We have a large number of riders all hitting the road on the same day. It makes sense, particularly given the difference between England and, say, France in attitudes towards large groups of people on bicycles, to spread them out at regular intervals. If you are in the small group that wants to ride the route in 100 hours, there are some time slots for you. If you are in the majority that wants to have the option of taking longer, there are plenty of time slots for you too. It really doesn't make that much difference which one you end up with. If you're a fast rider you'll soon catch up with whatever arbitrary targets you have set yourself and if you're not you'll still get round within the time limit if you're up to it.
It's still got to be better than the old style PBP or even the 2015 version.
The orgs have done an amazing job so far; let's not bog them down in nugatory fussing about start times.
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Peoples, let's cool all this down.
It's simple. We have a large number of riders all hitting the road on the same day. It makes sense, particularly given the difference between England and, say, France in attitudes towards large groups of people on bicycles, to spread them out at regular intervals. If you are in the small group that wants to ride the route in 100 hours, there are some time slots for you. If you are in the majority that wants to have the option of taking longer, there are plenty of time slots for you too. It really doesn't make that much difference which one you end up with. If you're a fast rider you'll soon catch up with whatever arbitrary targets you have set yourself and if you're not you'll still get round within the time limit if you're up to it.
It's still got to be better than the old style PBP or even the 2015 version.
The orgs have done an amazing job so far; let's not bog them down in nugatory fussing about start times.
(Disclaimer - I'm a new volunteer, not a rider)
Absolutely!
I think that a lot of riders are seriously over-thinking this event. The organisers have the benefit of the experience of previous events, and are a team that seem very well equipped to plan for the random nature of drop-outs, rider speeds, road conditions, weather, etc etc.
While I love planning rides, and am a 'detail' sort of guy - I get the impression that The Team have an extremely good grasp on the event.
This is not PBP, this is not a 'long sportive', this is LEL 2017.
Tapatalk puts this signature here, not me!
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I can’t waste too much energy on start times.
I have submitted my start time to the authorities and once they have validated it I will publish all the detail, everything you want to know.
I can say that it is the best start time - truly. All other start times are for losers, bigly losers. My start time will be the best and the most fabulous, believe me. It’ll be huge. If anyone says anything else that’s fake news. Who remembers the Bognor bicycle bomb? No one! Proof of a media cover up conspiracy, people.
Melania, have you seen my meds?
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"It really doesn't make that much difference which one [time] you end up with". I do not necessarily agree with this sentiment. It may be OK for those who are experienced LEL/PBP riders but it is a bit dismissive to those who are relatively new in tackling this sort of ride that it does not matter. Why do you think so many have requested AM start times?
Personally, I would consider an earlier start would allow me to start fresh and riding mainly daylight legs of approximately 260-300 Km per day, whereas a later start would mean either a short first day and then having to tackle longer days to catch up, or riding through the first night with the associated sleep deprivation from day 1.
While there have been several suggestions of how the oversubscribed slots will be reallocated, there has been nothing definite from the committee. I am in no way criticising the monumental work that the committee have undertaken to put the event together, but I think many would find it useful to know precisely how the final start times will be allocated.
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I can’t waste too much energy on start times.
I have submitted my start time to the authorities and once they have validated it I will publish all the detail, everything you want to know.
I can say that it is the best start time - truly. All other start times are for losers, bigly losers. My start time will be the best and the most fabulous, believe me. It’ll be huge. If anyone says anything else that’s fake news. Who remembers the Bognor bicycle bomb? No one! Proof of a media cover up conspiracy, people.
Melania, have you seen my meds?
;D POTD
Start times? Spreadsheets? Optimum scenario? Worst-case scenario? ???
I will be adopting that infallible strategic management approach: MIUAYGA. :thumbsup:
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While there have been several suggestions of how the oversubscribed slots will be reallocated, there has been nothing definite from the committee. I am in no way criticising the monumental work that the committee have undertaken to put the event together, but I think many would find it useful to know precisely how the final start times will be allocated.
I am also very new to all this, but I just don't get your point.
Choose an undersubscribed slot and you are guaranteed to get it. Choose an oversubscribed slot and there will be a lottery. The more oversubscribed your chosen slot, the less chance you have of getting it. If you are not successful in the lottery, you will be bumped down to a later slot, possibly a much later slot.
As it is, the organisers have already shared with you (a) how many people have chosen each slot so far and (b) how many places are available for each slot. Some might think they have already been overly-generous with the information they have shared.
But.... what further information could the organisers possibly give you which would actually influence your decision?
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"It really doesn't make that much difference which one [time] you end up with". I do not necessarily agree with this sentiment. It may be OK for those who are experienced LEL/PBP riders but it is a bit dismissive to those who are relatively new in tackling this sort of ride that it does not matter. Why do you think so many have requested AM start times?
Personally, I would consider an earlier start would allow me to start fresh and riding mainly daylight legs of approximately 260-300 Km per day, whereas a later start would mean either a short first day and then having to tackle longer days to catch up, or riding through the first night with the associated sleep deprivation from day 1.
While there have been several suggestions of how the oversubscribed slots will be reallocated, there has been nothing definite from the committee. I am in no way criticising the monumental work that the committee have undertaken to put the event together, but I think many would find it useful to know precisely how the final start times will be allocated.
Not a huge amount of experience but having ridden PBP2015 off a late PM start, and finished with more time to spare than I had on LEL 2013 with an earli-ish start (despite a 'preference' for early am start) I really don't think it makes that much difference. There's just so much else along the way that will affect your chances of finishing or not.
And, I don't see that knowing how re-allocation will be managed will improve your chances of an earlier start.
With an unknown process re-allocation becomes, effectively, a lottery - you could get anything.
With a known process everyone tries to game the system and nobody wins.
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But.... what further information could the organisers possibly give you which would actually influence your decision?
When I first read the rules, I assumed that people in the 9:00 slot would be reallocated first, gaining at worst a lunchtime slot, meaning there's an advantage* to picking 9:00 that counterbalances the lower likelihood of getting your chosen slot. However if, as has been floated, the most oversubscribed are allocated last, then picking 9:00 becomes a very bad idea if you want to avoid a late start. The point being that if you're playing this game then it's impossible to strategise without knowing more about how the lottery will work.
Personally I'm leaning towards choosing the earliest non-full slot as I don't want any risk of a late start.
(* assuming starting earlier is an advantage)
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[/quote]
I am also very new to all this, but I just don't get your point.
Choose an undersubscribed slot and you are guaranteed to get it. Choose an oversubscribed slot and there will be a lottery. The more oversubscribed your chosen slot, the less chance you have of getting it. If you are not successful in the lottery, you will be bumped down to a later slot, possibly a much later slot.
As it is, the organisers have already shared with you (a) how many people have chosen each slot so far and (b) how many places are available for each slot. Some might think they have already been overly-generous with the information they have shared.
But.... what further information could the organisers possibly give you which would actually influence your decision?
[/quote]
I have actually selected a start time that on the last time of checking was only oversubscribed by 4, so I am not trying to get a 9am start and then moaning about it when I do not get selected for that.
I could probably describe 6 or more different methods of 'randomly' allocating oversubscribed people to vacant times, each having a different outcome for the individual concerned depending on which slot they have currently selected. Potentially, someone could have selected a 9.30am start and end up going at 3.30pm. Those 6 hours will alter the way that person plans their ride.
As I said, it would be of interest to know which formula the organisers intend using to re-allocate riders to different time slots. Nothing more than that.
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in due course every time slot will be full .. that may come about from a reallocation of places following a lottery draw and an as yet undefined method of coping with excess demand for slots such as the 9.00am one.... but the 9.00 am applicants might choose to change their choice before lock time rather than risk being kicked out to 3.30 for example. Lets wait and see what happens. Before there is too much time wasted on the benefit of early or late starts .. may I remind everyone that the PBP 90 hour starts for at least the last 3 events have had an earliest start time of 17.00 and last away at 21.00 ..
No one riding PBP that i am aware of felt that an evening start scuppered their chances of completing the ride in time .. so given that everyone on LEL will be away before the PBP 90 hour guys had even started .. i suspect that it is lack of understanding of the reality of the ride that is causing concern .
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I could probably describe 6 or more different methods of 'randomly' allocating oversubscribed people to vacant times, each having a different outcome for the individual concerned depending on which slot they have currently selected. Potentially, someone could have selected a 9.30am start and end up going at 3.30pm. Those 6 hours will alter the way that person plans their ride.
As I said, it would be of interest to know which formula the organisers intend using to re-allocate riders to different time slots. Nothing more than that.
No matter how re-allocation works, if you choose 9.30am (currently very oversubscribed) there is a very high probability that you will not get it, and the best you can then hope for is the earliest slot which still has places. So, even on a very "best" case scenario, you will probably be setting off around lunchtime, and "worst" case scenario, much later than that.
I just don't think anyone needs, or can fairly ask for, any more information than we've been given already.
The more oversubscribed the slot I choose, the less chance I have of getting it. If I don't get my preferred slot, I'm then at risk of a late start. A late start would not be ideal for me since I'd like to arrive at Louth at a decent time on Sunday evening, but I will just have to deal with that.
I'd rather be in this position than one of the hundreds of riders who didn't get a place.
And besides, I simply don't believe that my start time will materially affect: (a) my chances of completing the ride or (b) my enjoyment of it.
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PBP old timers remember the jostling to get a good start slot. I quite liked it. The sense of release when you finally got going was enormous, especially after the build up over the Sunday and Monday.
The same effect in a virtual world isn't as satisfactory. There isn't the noise, the smell, the stilt walkers, the fire eaters or those blokes in the smocks with the bagpipes. Is there any way you can replicate some of that in the Rider Area?
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The same effect in a virtual world isn't as satisfactory. There isn't the noise, the smell, the stilt walkers, the fire eaters or those blokes in the smocks with the bagpipes. Is there any way you can replicate some of that in the Rider Area?
You are probably the nearest we'll get to that. ;D
Except for the fire breathing dragons... that's FB
;D ;D ;D ;D
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The fire breathers didn't make an appearance in 2011, it was too hot and too bright.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lw1B9CwQeng
One tradition they kept was having a Jennifer do the safety announcement, and to give her an unreadable script.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78wr8UAJmpE
I did film all the LEL 2013 starts, the ride through the muddy gateway was amusing.
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It's perfectly reasonable for riders to politely ask for information on any subject they bloody like (especially on an open internet forum - it's not like people are marching into FidgetBuzz's living room and demanding an answer before letting him go to bed).
If the Holy Order of Organisers are too busy with more important stuff, it's reasonable to ignore certain requests.
One of the perfectly sensible things to ask about is How are Start Times being allocated.
My honest opinion is that these are pretty fucking self-evident truths. So there.
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While there have been several suggestions of how the oversubscribed slots will be reallocated, there has been nothing definite from the committee. I am in no way criticising the monumental work that the committee have undertaken to put the event together, but I think many would find it useful to know precisely how the final start times will be allocated.
To be honest I haven't decided. I will probably start with the groups with the smallest oversubscriptions and move the lottery losers into the nearest free slots. I'll them work my way up, presumably to the 9am group. So if you go for 9am and lose, you'll probably get 2:45-3:45pm.
There will be probably be a bit of tinkering as well. If I can spot an easy win by increasing a group one or two to fit a group in, I might do that. Or I might not. But it'll me that does it and I'll do by hand (although the lotteries will be genuinely random).
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As more and more riders select start times, and the 16:00 time (now with about 30 of the 45 spaces) becomes oversubscribed, imagine the horror of having to start at 15:45 instead ... ;)
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(...hoping not to be barked at, and what's more important not bitten...)
As the number of riders who have selected a start time increases, now approaching 1,200, the 100hr option overall has become oversubscribed: 230 places available and 231 places requested. I notice the 0500 start time is still empty and I don't know whether it will be eventually filled by riders who are now included in the counting for other start times, so it might be only a problem of representation, anyway now this is what appears.
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As more and more riders select start times, and the 16:00 time (now with about 30 of the 45 spaces) becomes oversubscribed, imagine the horror of having to start at 15:45 instead ... ;)
What would be funny if those who chose an oversubscribed 09:00 start now get bumped towards the end and those who chose an increasingly likely oversubscribed 16:00 start (me) get bumped to the start :)
I am of course being silly before anyone takes that suggestion seriously :)
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(...hoping not to be barked at, and what's more important not bitten...)
As the number of riders who have selected a start time increases, now approaching 1,200, the 100hr option overall has become oversubscribed: 230 places available and 231 places requested. I notice the 0500 start time is still empty and I don't know whether it will be eventually filled by riders who are now included in the counting for other start times, so it might be only a problem of representation, anyway now this is what appears.
My understanding was that the 0500hr start is invite only.
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(...hoping not to be barked at, and what's more important not bitten...)
As the number of riders who have selected a start time increases, now approaching 1,200, the 100hr option overall has become oversubscribed: 230 places available and 231 places requested. I notice the 0500 start time is still empty and I don't know whether it will be eventually filled by riders who are now included in the counting for other start times, so it might be only a problem of representation, anyway now this is what appears.
My understanding was that the 0500hr start is invite only.
Sure, but having no idea about how the invitation works, I don't know whether any of those who will eventually start at 0500 are now included in the counting for other start times, I mean: maybe somebody is hoping to be invited (not me!) but in the meanwhile has expressed his/her choice for, say, 0600. It looks reasonable, doesn't it?
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The really really fast guys .. say sub 65 hours will get the invite to start at 5.00am. They are all currently in the 100 hour group .. so maybe 25/35 will take up the option of a 5.00 start.
And yes the huge overapplication for 9.00am will inevitably be bumped to after midday .. whatever system of reallocation is used.. but that must be obvious to any of them that keep an eye on the position .. so with only approx 1 in 3 chance do they opt now for 12.15 .. or do they stick and accept that 3.30 is going to be quite likely.
With no idea what final reallocation system Alwyn will opt for ( and he might discuss it with us) .. the logic of giving any small over application the nearest slots to their preferred time seems attractive to me .. which would then put all the 9.00,9.15,9.30, etc at risk of being from 3.00pm onwards
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I don't know
it might be
having no idea
I don't know
maybe somebody is hoping
I'm in the same boat as you, frillipippi. So I place my trust in the sure knowledge that Alwyn and Fidgetbuzz et al have done this before and know what they're doing.
Y'see, it's not their first rodeo.
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I don't know
it might be
having no idea
I don't know
maybe somebody is hoping
I'm in the same boat as you, frillipippi. So I place my trust in the sure knowledge that Alwyn and Fidgetbuzz et al have done this before and know what they're doing.
Y'see, it's not their first rodeo.
When I express my ignorance about something, do you get the idea I don't trust the organizers? That sounds really weird to me!
Anyway, I was drawing the attention on the seeming oversubscription of 100hr slots more from a "Kahneman-Thaler-Sunstein" point of view. I mean, human beings in general are not 100% rational, LEL riders are a very peculiar subset, etc. etc.
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Are faster groups less booked than expected? How about a new start group at 0845 and ballot 50 - 60 people to an extra early "slow" start?
No, sorry, just thinking by myself..
Good work all of you!
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I'm in the same boat as you, frillipippi. So I place my trust in the sure knowledge that Alwyn and Fidgetbuzz et al have done this before and know what they're doing.
Y'see, it's not their first rodeo.
Yes .. but .. 2013 had only 1000 on the start line and at 50 per batch that was only 20 start times .. ie 5 hours .. so starts from ( and I do not remember) 7.00am until midday .. this is now 50% bigger .and we just have to spread the load on the roads and on the early controls .. so many will start much later than in 2013.
BUT .. still I draw attention to the fact that all 90 hours on PBP.. only start after 1700 hours .. with most riding thru the night .. OK PBP has qualifiers so the riders are familiar with night time riding. By choice we do not have qualifiers .. so inevitably we have riders with no experience of the joys riding thru the night .. but seems to me that some are going to have to learn quite quickly about riding in summer nighttime. But they chose to enter .. and a new experience is never bad news .. at any age !!!
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If someone can post the numbers assigned to each bucket (both requested places and available spaces), or a screengrab of the graph if it's like the one in the FAQ section, I'll try and run a few monte carlo simulations to work out the likely places you'll end up if you added yourself to each bucket based on the reassignment rules that have been hinted to above...
(EDIT: Of course I won't know how many people are getting guaranteed slot times because their partner/spouse is volunteering for more than 2 days, or to be able to model the groups, but it'll give a general idea...)
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Heh, I'll try to remember to grab it if no-one else does by the time I get around to it.
I've gone 6am, Thirsk, Edinburgh.
Remind me to get back into training.
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OK, based on the data at noon (passed on by someone - thanks), my simulation (with the various caveats of not knowing about groups, guaranteed spaces for volunteers/etc, and guesswork about the precise algorithm used) and ignoring the early starts it gives:-
SLOT 0900:(133/50): 0900(375) 1245(83) 1300(243) 1315(299)
SLOT 0915:(86/50): 0915(578) 1230(136) 1245(286)
SLOT 0930:(71/50): 0930(713) 1215(215) 1230(72)
SLOT 0945:(66/50): 0945(728) 1215(272)
SLOT 1000:(72/50): 1000(678) 1230(322)
SLOT 1015:(60/50): 1015(801) 1145(159) 1215(40)
SLOT 1030:(56/50): 1030(874) 1145(126)
SLOT 1045:(55/50): 1045(904) 1145(96)
SLOT 1100:(54/50): 1100(928) 1145(72)
SLOT 1115:(51/50): 1115(967) 1130(33)
SLOT 1200:(46/45): 1200(956) 1215(44)
(Any slot not mentioned was not full so picking one of those will guarantee you that time. Supposedly.)
Taking one line and explaining it:-
SLOT 0900:(133/50): 0900(375) 1245(83) 1300(243) 1315(299)
So Slot 0900 already has 133 people going for 50 places. If you selected that slot (e.g. to make it 134 requests for 50 places) then the simulation run 1000 times gives your chance of getting 0900 as 37.5%, next most likely is 1315 with 29.9%, then 1300 with 24.3% and finally 1245 with 8.3%.
However, only 951 preferences for a start between 9am and 4pm have selected (out of 1355 places) so there's still some filling up to go, which will probably change things drastically.
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Fidgetbuzz, you're going to need an awful lot of crowd control barriers to keep this unruly bunch in their 15 minute starting pens to ensure an orderly departure!
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OK, based on the data at noon (passed on by someone - thanks), my simulation (with the various caveats of not knowing about groups, guaranteed spaces for volunteers/etc, and guesswork about the precise algorithm used) and ignoring the early starts it gives:-
SLOT 0900:(133/50): 0900(375) 1245(83) 1300(243) 1315(299)
SLOT 0915:(86/50): 0915(578) 1230(136) 1245(286)
SLOT 0930:(71/50): 0930(713) 1215(215) 1230(72)
SLOT 0945:(66/50): 0945(728) 1215(272)
SLOT 1000:(72/50): 1000(678) 1230(322)
SLOT 1015:(60/50): 1015(801) 1145(159) 1215(40)
SLOT 1030:(56/50): 1030(874) 1145(126)
SLOT 1045:(55/50): 1045(904) 1145(96)
SLOT 1100:(54/50): 1100(928) 1145(72)
SLOT 1115:(51/50): 1115(967) 1130(33)
SLOT 1200:(46/45): 1200(956) 1215(44)
(Any slot not mentioned was not full so picking one of those will guarantee you that time. Supposedly.)
Taking one line and explaining it:-
SLOT 0900:(133/50): 0900(375) 1245(83) 1300(243) 1315(299)
So Slot 0900 already has 133 people going for 50 places. If you selected that slot (e.g. to make it 134 requests for 50 places) then the simulation run 1000 times gives your chance of getting 0900 as 37.5%, next most likely is 1315 with 29.9%, then 1300 with 24.3% and finally 1245 with 8.3%.
However, only 951 preferences for a start between 9am and 4pm have selected (out of 1355 places) so there's still some filling up to go, which will probably change things drastically.
As a 12:45 hopeful, I like the odds of having a large bunch of 9 and 9:15 riders trying to make up time from *my* starting pen. Now just to learn how to draft. #InJest
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#InJest
I hope so - hanging on to the tails of a group that was 0.5 kph too hot for me was very nearly my undoing in 2013.
The after-effects were the evaporation of a 10 hour time buffer and a finish with just minutes to spare.
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My biggest problem is more likely to be my own bed. 1km off route at ~330km and ~1100km.
Yes - I'm joking about riding anything other than my own pace. My rough rule of thumb: if traveling over 25kph on the flat - stop pedaling!
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You see, I'm trying to work out what happens if the 4pm (i.e. last) time slot is over-subscribed.
Do the ballot-losers start the following day? Or are they bumped to the 9am slot in 2021?
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Fidgetbuzz, you're going to need an awful lot of crowd control barriers to keep this unruly bunch in their 15 minute starting pens to ensure an orderly departure!
System worked well in 2013 .. dont see why the same will not work again. Two side by side pens .. letter A in one ,B in the other when A has gone then C goes in there, repeat, repeat etc Attempt to go in an earlier start than your letter code , and you have to show it to get into the pen -- simple your brevet card is torn up. Go later no problem.
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You see, I'm trying to work out what happens if the 4pm (i.e. last) time slot is over-subscribed.
Do the ballot-losers start the following day? Or are they bumped to the 9am slot in 2021?
The poor b*ggers will have to start before they want to !!.. But then maybe they will refuse to go at 3.30 and the 4.00 start will have 75 riders in it , but 30 of these will only have 116 hours and 10 minutes now
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You see, I'm trying to work out what happens if the 4pm (i.e. last) time slot is over-subscribed.
Do the ballot-losers start the following day? Or are they bumped to the 9am slot in 2021?
Dunno yet. I'll probably make it up as I go along.
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Currently 29 requested places for 1600 start, on 45 available places. About 25% of riders haven't made their choice yet.
Raw numbers suggest 1600 slot is unlikely to get over-subscribed, let alone behavioral considerations.
I'd consider unwise to bet on it only because so many of us might bet and then influence the result... ;)
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I am a fairly inexperienced audaxer, but am a bit confused by all the fuss about start times. On any other brevet, you don't get a choice... just turn up at the allotted time - whether 6am or 11pm, and then follow the routesheet. simples =)
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I'm not to fussed either about start times. Mid day would be great but the most important thing is that I can start with my mates, as there is only 3 of us and we've registered as a team this shouldnt be a problem. I'm not bothered about riding certain sections in daylight the only fixed things will be the bags drops where a shower and a change of clothes will be most welcome. Just looking forward to taking part and enjoying it.
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I am a fairly inexperienced audaxer, but am a bit confused by all the fuss about start times. On any other brevet, you don't get a choice... just turn up at the allotted time - whether 6am or 11pm, and then follow the routesheet. simples =)
Something tells me you're new to YACF...
;D
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Got to agree though. Choice breeds panic.
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Got to agree though. Choice breeds panic.
True that. Look at all the stress folks have about choosing a school place these days - when everyone just went to their local school nobody fussed. People are like toddlers given a choice of sandwich fillings - it all ends in wailing on the kitchen floor.
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You see, I'm trying to work out what happens if the 4pm (i.e. last) time slot is over-subscribed.
Do the ballot-losers start the following day? Or are they bumped to the 9am slot in 2021?
Nope, they will need to do the washing up and clean the start control before they get going...
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OK, based on the data at noon (passed on by someone - thanks), my simulation (with the various caveats of not knowing about groups, guaranteed spaces for volunteers/etc, and guesswork about the precise algorithm used) and ignoring the early starts it gives:-
I had a look at the the process for managing this, working from first principles, as its an interesting problem....
Working on a simple approach of multiple rounds of assigning free places per slot/applicant, and moving unsuccessful applicants for one start time onto the next... if initial slot applications are fairly well distributed with highs and low levels of applications through the schedule then riders will tend to get something near to what they asked for.
HOWEVER if there is a major bulge at the start, as is the case, then whilst riders outside the starting bulge will tend to get something close to what they asked for, riders in the starting bulge slot(s) missing out on the initial assignment will slide straight to the end of the schedule, as all of the interim start times will already be fully allocated by the time they reach them...
What this means is that the ¬150 riders missing out on on 9-10am slots will find themselves starting late afternoon. I foresee a great wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Limiting the number of start times by which riders might be 'delayed' would reduce this but that would be at the cost of penalising riders who booked less popular start times in the first place. Is it reasonable they should be displaced when nominally by doing so they were assisting the organisers? Or maybe they were just stating their actual preferance. Either way, is it fair they should be pushed back when riders lucky in getting earlier slots were not? No right answer, just have to take a view...
If taking this approach, offering starting places in much larger starting blocks (say 9-11, 11-13, 13-15, etc.), or treating applications received as such, with each block containing a number of start times would makesthe process of allocating places more flexible and reduce rider expectations as to getting a specific 15 minute start time.
Another approach would be I'll call 'cascading pools' of start slots. So there is a ballot for places in the first start time, and those failing to get a place going into the ballot for the next start time alongside the applicants for that start time. This approach allows for weightings to be applied to increase the probability of success for riders applying to undersubscribed slots and/or reduce the amount riders are delayed (by progressively increasing the weighting of riders failing on one pool and being moved on to the next). This would mean that 'bulge' riders not getting their preferred slot would have a chance of getting a place in the following slots as the bulge is massaged through the startlist. The overall effect is that more/possibly most riders would get something akin to what they asked for.
This is not a small problem though. Glad it's not mine. It occurs to me it's also not a new problem... I expect theres a whole branch of mathematics devoted to this conumdrum. Doubtless Greenbank can advise. :)
Apologies if this has already been done to death (and all the edits).... just interested.
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Limiting the number of start times by which riders might be 'delayed' would reduce this but that would be at the cost of penalising riders who booked less popular start times in the first place. Is it reasonable they should be displaced when nominally by doing so they were assisting the organisers? Or maybe they were just stating their actual preferance. Either way, is it fair they should be pushed back when riders lucky in getting earlier slots were not? No right answer, just have to take a view...
As you say, it's impossible to know why people have chosen the slots they have. But I can certainly say that in my case I have opted for a later start than I would otherwise have chosen in the hope of reducing the chances of being bumped to a much later start. I am sure there are lots of people who have done the same.
Strikes me as a bit odd if those who have done the same were then to be put at a disadvantage compared to those who have clung to the 9am slot.
Arguably, those who have chosen the most oversubscribed slots should be allocated last (as has been mooted on this thread already) -
it would certainly encourage people to re-consider their choice and, by opting to spread themselves a bit more evenly, make things easier for the organisers.
And if those who have currently chosen the most over-subscribed slots choose not to re-consider, that's their decision, but at least they know the risk they are facing if they don't get their chosen slot ...
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Accurate analysis in my view
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I've just selected 4pm
I had 3 possibles in my mind. 7am and 100h, 9am or 4pm
7am means I will have less time for sleep, regardless of what else I do
9am means I do the first easy bit in daylight so quite fast and hopefully get to the end of the flatter section end of day 1. But let's face it everyone wants to do this so it's unlikely that I would get a slot for it
4pm means I will have to ride through the first night and the first day like PBP. I guess I aim to get to Brampton end of day 2 + 36 hours, then get some proper sleep
I do wonder how the less experienced riders would cope with the scenario of a 4pm start
If I start at 4pm I will be at the back of everything throughout the event. Not bothered about the food running out or anything but it's often difficult to find anyone to ride with
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If I start at 4pm I will be at the back of everything throughout the event. Not bothered about the food running out or anything but it's often difficult to find anyone to ride with
If you're fast enough to have been contemplating a 100h, I imagine you will very quickly find some company among the 3pm and 3.30pm starts!
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If I start at 4pm I will be at the back of everything throughout the event. Not bothered about the food running out or anything but it's often difficult to find anyone to ride with
If you're fast enough to have been contemplating a 100h, I imagine you will very quickly find some company among the 3pm and 3.30pm starts!
Well I hope so but I am not so quick that I can burn several matches staying with people who are overdoing it
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I do not understand the start time approach adopted by many people. The 9.00 am start currently has 139 applications for 50 places and the 9.15 has 86 and the 9.30 has 71.
So 9.00 am start has a 36% chance of being fortunate .. with an almost certain post 2.00pm start if they are unlucky, and maybe post 3.00pm. But 9.15 has a 58% and 9.30 a 70% chance of being lucky. Why not significantly increase your chance of starting early by being in the 9.15, 9.30, 9.45 group. The 15/30/45 minutes start time difference is immaterial for your day one plans.. but be unlucky and a 5 hours at least change of start time ...... . well that would be different
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I do not understand the start time approach adopted by many
You don't have to be mad to ride audax, but it helps.
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I suspect that there's a fair degree of brinkmanship going on, with people hanging on in the hope that someone else will blink first and switch to another slot. It's fun to watch :D
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I'd take a guess many either don't quite get how the ballot will work or don't grasp how late a start time they'll be getting if they lose the ballot.
I'd hope an email with some friendly tips will be going out sometime in the next month if we're to avoid toys being ejected from pram.
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I'd take a guess many either don't quite get how the ballot will work or don't grasp how late a start time they'll be getting if they lose the ballot.
I think you're right. Many who aren't avid yacf or facebook users will have no idea about the (over)analysis in which many of us are partaking. And many will end up moaning, too.
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A good knowledge of your strengths and weaknesses plus those of others can be interesting when you decide a startspot. I opt for a start around noon.
-Enough time to sleep before the start so no sleep deficit at the start, so I can ride through the 1st night.
-Most of the riders starting between 9 and 10 am plan to sleep during the 1st night, starting with them would mean a lonely night section
-I'm relatively slow in the hills (first section) but not that slow on the flat (scheduled night section).
-Riders who start around 3-4pm tend to want to ride through the 1st night.
So if I start around noon I have enough sleep in hand to ride through the 1st night in company of faster climbers of the 3-4pm starts who caught up with me. Plus a schedule geared to finishing with 4 hours in hand means that I can do most of Scotland during daylight. As an added benefit, no rush for starttimes.
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I think the last post sort of sums it up for me.
I've plumped for a start time which I may or may not get (it's not overly popular). If I don't get it I just have to look at different tactics to when and where I stop and sleep, all of which can be planned for well in advance. The time I get may not be my 'perfect' option, but then I've never done this before so I haven't got past experience to inform my choice anyway.
At the moment I'm more worried about getting enough time on the bike so I can get to the point when I can bang out 200k rides without breaking sweat and building up the necessary longer rides in the two or three months prior to the start.
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I'd take a guess many either don't quite get how the ballot will work or don't grasp how late a start time they'll be getting if they lose the ballot.
I'd hope an email with some friendly tips will be going out sometime in the next month if we're to avoid toys being ejected from pram.
I totally agree. I've exchanged a couple of emails with another Italian rider who requested 09:00 start and was trying to form as large a group as possible hoping this would increase his hopes of not being moved to another start time... :facepalm: ... he ended his last email with something like this: "even if we are unlucky, and we have to start at 1000, we'll get over it"... no comment!
Another possible reason could be that someone has noticed the gap between the last start time for 100hr and the first 116hr40, maybe someone is hoping that a barking dog never bites and that some 0845 slot will magically pop up, at the end. The email with friendly tips might explicitly state that this won't be the case.
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I totally agree. I've exchanged a couple of emails with another Italian rider who requested 09:00 start and was trying to form as large a group as possible hoping this would increase his hopes of not being moved to another start time...
09:00am and large group you say? Ha ha ha ha ha ha, at least it'll marginally improve the chances for others who've gone for 9am... Keep the entertainment coming.
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I suspect that 12:00 is going to become the new 9:00 as riders in the know 'downsize'...
Miss out on a 9:00 slot and it's a 6 hour wait. Miss out on a 12:00 slot and it's only a 3 hour wait.
The way things are going, everybody is going to be starting at 4pm regardless!
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Is it likely that the 9am slot has more people with guaranteed starting times, reducing chances even further for those allocated by lottery?
Did the committee consider allocating on price, I wonder how much a 9am slot would be worth to some riders?
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Is it likely that the 9am slot has more people with guaranteed starting times, reducing chances even further for those allocated by lottery?
Did the committee consider allocating on price, I wonder how much a 9am slot would be worth to some riders?
How are you allocated a guaranteed starting time? I was not aware that was an option available to riders. Guaranteed place yes, but guaranteed starting time?
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Did the committee consider allocating on price
Shouldn't think so for one moment. Can't see Danial tolerating that for one moment.
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Is it likely that the 9am slot has more people with guaranteed starting times, reducing chances even further for those allocated by lottery?
Did the committee consider allocating on price, I wonder how much a 9am slot would be worth to some riders?
How are you allocated a guaranteed starting time? I was not aware that was an option available to riders. Guaranteed place yes, but guaranteed starting time?
Blood relative volunteering for half the week, I think, or something similar ...
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Did the committee consider allocating on price
Shouldn't think so for one moment. Can't see Danial tolerating that for one moment.
I think there was brief discussion about it here a while ago (certainly I recall the suggestion of allocating something on price) - as you suggest, the idea didn't last very long ...
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It would appeal to me .. enormously .. I think I suggested a Dutch auction for 10 places each starting at £250.
In reality there is no way that we would do that .. so just wishful thinking on my behalf
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... I've exchanged a couple of emails with another Italian rider who requested 09:00 start and was trying to form as large a group as possible hoping this would increase his hopes of not being moved to another start time... :facepalm: ... he ended his last email with something like this: "even if we are unlucky, and we have to start at 1000, we'll get over it"... no comment!
A really big group won't help at all. From: https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/
If you’re riding as a group of up to six riders, give us your team name in the rider area and arrange with your group members to choose the same start time.
Also...
Is it likely that the 9am slot has more people with guaranteed starting times, reducing chances even further for those allocated by lottery?
Did the committee consider allocating on price, I wonder how much a 9am slot would be worth to some riders?
How are you allocated a guaranteed starting time? I was not aware that was an option available to riders. Guaranteed place yes, but guaranteed starting time?
Blood relative volunteering for half the week, I think, or something similar ...
From: https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/ again:-
...
If your partner or spouse is volunteering to help for more than two days of the event, we will also guarantee your start time.
...
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... I've exchanged a couple of emails with another Italian rider who requested 09:00 start and was trying to form as large a group as possible hoping this would increase his hopes of not being moved to another start time... :facepalm: ... he ended his last email with something like this: "even if we are unlucky, and we have to start at 1000, we'll get over it"... no comment!
A really big group won't help at all. From: https://londonedinburghlondon.com/2016/08/here-are-some-details-about-next-years-start-times/
If you’re riding as a group of up to six riders, give us your team name in the rider area and arrange with your group members to choose the same start time.
Sure, and at the end of the same page you can find written "Any group larger than six risks being split up or placed in an unpopular slot."
I can tell you the Italian translation of this page is faithful to the original and easy to understand... :facepalm:
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Remind me again when start times get locked down ?.... I need to do some thinking.
I would ask on the facebook group but I understand that incurs extra fees :-X
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bloody heck .. we will have to start charging on here too. Try reading this thread
Lock time.. not defined .. to avoid you gaming your choice .. but at an undefined date and time after 18th march.
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bloody heck .. we will have to start charging on here too. Try reading this thread
Lock time.. not defined .. to avoid you gaming your choice .. but at an undefined date and time after 18th march.
Thank you.... I think you have to prove that the info is on the website to be able to invoice :facepalm:
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I didn't think it was the question that was chargeable ... just the answer ...
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I don't see why we shouldn't allocate start times by prices, we do this for most things in life to reveal preferences,why should an audax be different. An economist would say it is more efficient, those who have greatest utility for the early time would pay more for this leading to utility maximisation overall.
While we are on the subject what is the maximum amount that we could have charged for lel and still sell out - my estimate would be around £600, can someone make a better guess, based on the number of oversubscriptions?
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Regarding fees: I think you'll find the team subscribe to the ethos of Audax UK, and this link (http://www.aukweb.net/events/feespolicy/) to the AUK explanation of fees might help.
TL;DR?
Entry fees to AUK events are usually very much lower than comparable commercial or charity events, because the organisers and their helpers are all volunteers giving freely of their time, and not expecting to make a surplus over the cost of the facilities they provide.
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Pricing .. there is scope for some serious debate .. I was money man on '13 and again this year .. doubtful for 21 .. but apart from what price people would be willing to pay , you have to consider what are the objectives .. and things like where does any surplus end up.
We think with our 13 experience that we are going to provide a superb ride at £319, so why charge more . we have upped the price from 13 to allow more paid staff cleaning and cooking .. but we think we have more volunteer support than we had in 13 .. Currently we are predicting a modest surplus .. which goes towards 21 .. so why would we try to make more .. .. no point in passing money to AUK they already have significant reserves.
We could turn it into a commercial venture .. but then we lose the volunteer support .
lets keep it as it is .. UK audax riders putting on a showcase event
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:thumbsup:
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I don't see why we shouldn't allocate start times by prices, we do this for most things in life
The idea that the rich riders get good start times and the poor riders get bad start times would, I think, receive a very precise number of backers among auks as a whole: that number is exactly zero.
The most important things in life are not allocated by price: for example, we all receive exactly the same amount of protection by our military, and emergency healthcare is not allocated by price. Your money can buy you more expensive clothes and a smarter car, and even a more expensive bike. But there are, fortunately, still some places where money doesn't count and the LEL start line is one of them.
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Allocate by price? Absolutely not.
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I don't see why we shouldn't allocate start times by prices, we do this for most things in life to reveal preferences,why should an audax be different. An economist would say it is more efficient, those who have greatest utility for the early time would pay more for this leading to utility maximisation overall.
While we are on the subject what is the maximum amount that we could have charged for lel and still sell out - my estimate would be around £600, can someone make a better guess, based on the number of oversubscriptions?
There are other events that do much the same as LEL, the Deloitte LEJOG is one. That depends for its prestige on the fact that cycling is the new golf.
But golf isn't the same everywhere, for the wealthy it' s a networking opportunity, but in Scotland, it's something that everyone might do. You'll cycle through a golf course in Innerleithen that's an expression of that. Then you'll ride up beside a Salmon stream, again something exclusive if you're a banker, inclusive if you live there.
There'll be volunteers all along the way who see the riders as people like them, at some point they might benefit from the voluntary efforts of the riders. One solution might be to charge for favoured start times, and issue a special jersey, the wearers could then get 'special' treatment all the way along the ride. Similar to the VIP areas in nightclubs.
PBP had VIP cards, and special treatment for participants who had organised a qualifying SR series, and in 2015 start time choice cascaded according to the longest ride you had done in 2014.
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There'll be volunteers all along the way who see the riders as people like them, at some point they might benefit from the voluntary efforts of the riders. One solution might be to charge for favoured start times, and issue a special jersey, the wearers could then get 'special' treatment all the way along the ride. Similar to the VIP areas in nightclubs.
PBP had VIP cards, and special treatment for participants who had organised a qualifying SR series, and in 2015 start time choice cascaded according to the longest ride you had done in 2014.
I'm all for some extra benefits for people that have done something to help AUK/Audax (e.g. organised SR series, volunteered on events [including previous LELs], etc). The idea is that it may help encourage people to volunteer or get into organising. But treating people in a different way simply because they've paid a bit more just doesn't sit right with me, at least not with Audax.
Earlier start times for riders with longer BRM rides is easy (well, easier) for PBP to do as it's much easier for them to check what BRM rides each riders has done the previous year. LEL doesn't have qualifying rides, has no simple way to get the info of what riders may have done given it will be spread across 50+ countries, and many riders won't have access to long BRM rides in the year before LEL as many countries only bother with BRM rides in the run up to PBP.
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Those from a purely sportive background have no grounding in these issues. They look at the various methods to ensure 'fairness' and it just looks complex in comparison with the simplicity of charging.
They can't know that LEL has to conform to the PBP template of fairness, but without the qualification mechanism. Systems of preference already in place are historic as well. Long-standing membership of AUK, previous volunteering and other factors. If you don't know any of that, it just looks odd.
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"Audax - it just looks odd" :thumbsup:
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Those from a purely sportive background have no grounding in these issues. They look at the various methods to ensure 'fairness' and it just looks complex in comparison with the simplicity of charging.
They can't know that LEL has to conform to the PBP template of fairness, but without the qualification mechanism. Systems of preference already in place are historic as well. Long-standing membership of AUK, previous volunteering and other factors. If you don't know any of that, it just looks odd.
A list of prices may be simpler, but you don't need to be Einstein to understand giving preference to people who have given something to the club/sport/hobby.
How stupid do you think people from a sportive background are?? ;)
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"Audax - it just looks odd" :thumbsup:
Yes. But so does Everything Else!
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Those from a purely sportive background have no grounding in these issues. They look at the various methods to ensure 'fairness' and it just looks complex in comparison with the simplicity of charging.
They can't know that LEL has to conform to the PBP template of fairness, but without the qualification mechanism. Systems of preference already in place are historic as well. Long-standing membership of AUK, previous volunteering and other factors. If you don't know any of that, it just looks odd.
A list of prices may be simpler, but you don't need to be Einstein to understand giving preference to people who have given something to the club/sport/hobby.
How stupid do you think people from a sportive background are?? ;)
They might not realise that they're looking at a qualification rides shaped hole. Obviously ACP have ready access to their own data, so qualifiers are not a problem, indeed the process is a potential fundraiser.
I don't know what ACP would want paying to organise qualification for other parties, that's the shape of the hole in my understanding. Questions about whether it's worth having LRM validation shine a bit of light, but again, this means nothing to sportive riders.
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"Audax - it just looks odd" :thumbsup:
Yes. But so does Everything Else!
... & it's why we all love it ...
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An economist would say it is more efficient, those who have greatest utility for the early time would pay more for this leading to utility maximisation overall.
I'm sure they would. One of the things that I love about audax is that 'maximising utility' is not the aim.
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An economist would say it is more efficient, those who have greatest utility for the early time would pay more for this leading to utility maximisation overall.
I'm sure they would. One of the things that I love about audax is that 'maximising utility' is not the aim.
A behavioural economist would be most interested in the opportunity cost to the volunteers. Why aren't they riding the event, as it's their core activity? The answer is that it's deferred consumption (jargon for Brownie points), in the expectation of benefits. They can ride PBP with their heads held high, which is perfectly rational from an economic perspective. It's also the fairest thing to do.
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A behavioural economist would be most interested in the opportunity cost to the volunteers. Why aren't they riding the event, as it's their core activity? The answer is that it's deferred consumption (jargon for Brownie points), in the expectation of benefits. They can ride PBP with their heads held high, which is perfectly rational from an economic perspective. It's also the fairest thing to do.
I'm volunteering not riding. The opportunity cost to me is not riding time but family time & time in my other volunteer job (which I love). It may be deferred consumption, but paid back, not forward, in that it's not 'brownie points' I'm earning, but points I'm paying back for rides I did quite some years ago. I'm never likely to ride LEL or PBP (and I don't honestly think I really want to) but Audax and cycling has given me a great deal of pleasure (and pain) over the years, so yes, I'm paying some of that back this summer.
Tapatalk puts this signature here, not me!
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Similarly, I'd expect to get to see and support a bunch of my mates (and a thousand or so random others) and spend time with some Jolly Good People. Not sure what consumption I'm deferring.... apart from, if last time is anything to go by, of calories. I lost, IIRC, over a stone that weel in 2013!
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I'm just pointing out that there's more than one type of economics. You can only make generalisations about behaviour, but different behaviours will occur at different price points.
One of the most interesting is the viewpoint of the fastest riders, who make the least demands on the organisation, but cause the controls to be open early. They could do the ride with only a single person to stamp their cards at controls, as they have back-up. robert french is only talking about himself, and people like him.
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We could turn it into a commercial venture .. but then we lose the volunteer support .
Also you may lose the spirit. And the volunteer support is exactly that - Randonneurs setting up an exceptionally randonneur event for other randonneurs :).
Well, I'm looking forward to meet some 2013 volunteers 'en route' :).
And, of course, I'll be glad to talk to you again.
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I suspect that there's a fair degree of brinkmanship going on, with people hanging on in the hope that someone else will blink first and switch to another slot. It's fun to watch :D
first blinks .. max demand for 9.00am so far .. 142 .. but now showing 140. 2 people have moved to a time with a much better chance of success ..
more to come ?
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Any predictions on the relative composition of the different start times at close of choosing?
My guess is that compared with other start times the 9am group will me more male, younger average age, higher proportion of overseas riders, higher proportion of London based riders. When the final timings come out I also predict they will have higher dropout and faster overall speeds.
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low IQ as well .. 9.00 a.m. has a 35% chance of success , 9.15 has a 57% chance
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low IQ as well .. 9.00 a.m. has a 35% chance of success , 9.15 has a 57% chance
Well, let's face it. Deciding to ride a bike for 1400km over five days is probably not an indicator of great intelligence...
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Anyone have the current numbers of riders in each window (I assume changes are locked out now, ignore if not yet...)
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If you "hover" your mouse over the various graph bars, you can see the number in each 15-minute group
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If you "hover" your mouse over the various graph bars, you can see the number in each 15-minute group
I don't think Greenbank has any access to the rider area.
BTW, at the moment, I'm receiving an error 522 when trying to connect to the homepage.
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Anyone have the current numbers of riders in each window (I assume changes are locked out now, ignore if not yet...)
Start time choices get locked on the 30th March.
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Out of interest, do people who selected their start time earlier get preference over those who are being bumped from other slots? When I chose mine, it was undersubscribed but has now exceeded its limit. Do I get preference, having selected it early, or is it all pot luck?
(I don't mine either way - I start at x o'clock and finish at x + 100 & odd hours o'clock.)
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I'm guessing it's pot luck. But it does seem unfair when someone who jumps ship from the 9am start at the last minute into your pot, then gets that time and you get kicked out :-\
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Out of interest, do people who selected their start time earlier get preference over those who are being bumped from other slots?
That would turn it back into fastest finger first though - which this system is supposed to be avoiding ...
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9.00 a.m. starts down to 135 now.. so some rebalancing taking place,
and now 134.
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9.00 a.m. starts down to 135 now.. so some rebalancing taking place,
and now 134.
133, I've jumped to 0745. I can't risk a late start time so prefer the risk of missing the 100 hour cut.
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60h riding 40h eating sleeping faffing. 23.3kph riding speed. Can be done.
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132 .. down down
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3 of the 09:00 slots are already taken, so the draw will be for just 47 places.
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I'm guessing it's pot luck. But it does seem unfair when someone who jumps ship from the 9am start at the last minute into your pot, then gets that time and you get kicked out :-\
Seriously..."your pot"…what does that even mean ? Is it "unfair" if somebody else chooses the same lottery numbers as you ?
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I'm guessing it's pot luck. But it does seem unfair when someone who jumps ship from the 9am start at the last minute into your pot, then gets that time and you get kicked out :-\
Seriously..."your pot"…what does that even mean ? Is it "unfair" if somebody else chooses the same lottery numbers as you ?
If you have the same lottery numbers then you both win. In this instance there likely to be a loser at the expense of the other.
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It was never a first come first served system though, so such gripes are baseless. The only thing that matters is the size of the pot you are in when the window closes; it doesn't matter who was first or last to join the time slot.
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Yes, I realise that is the way it works. My responses have just been reaffirming Redlight's earlier post.
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129 now .. reality kicking in .. there is no material difference between 9.00 am and any other time for the next 2 or 3 hours
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I think that more people could be encouraged to follow DOG example, switching from a crowded 09** start to one of the 100hr slots if it was more clear that there is still place in these. Currently, the 0600 slot looks overcrowded because it also includes the 0500 invitation-only riders, as far as I understood from Fidgetbuzz.
So I was thinking: if an undecided rider (not me: I'll be an afternoon starter) could see more clearly that there is still place at 0600, maybe she/he could make up her/his mind and go for a faster start. I don't know what it might take to the organizers to move 0500 starters in their slot, I don't even know if it's feasible now and how many they are, it's just an idea to try and encourage people to leave the 09** over-requested slots...
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I changed my start time from 0600 to 0730 to avoid this issue but there's very little difference between 0600 and 0800 start time over a 100 hour ride.
Main issue for me is that the finish time for 100h deadline is mid-late morning dependent on start slot. I'd prefer evening (my 80h deadline on PBP was 0030 and I finished at 21:44) but that isn't an option with the morning start.
The other issue is having to get round inside 100h. ::-)
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Yes, I realise that is the way it works. My responses have just been reaffirming Redlight's earlier post.
So... if one were to choose a slot that, at the time the site is locked, is under-subscribed, would one be guaranteed that slot or would there be a risk that one would be competing with people bumped from other over-subscribed slots? I'm assuming the former.
BTW, I don't know why I'm asking all this - I have absolute faith that Danial, Phil, Roger & co will run the process fairly and consistently :) and really don't mind what slot I get.
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Ermmm, if you go for a 100 start, it's guaranteed you'll have a 100 hour start. So between 6-8am unless you've requested 5am.
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Out of interest, why are there 50 places per slot up to 11.15 and then 45 after. Is it a case of an average 45 per slot but the am will be more popular so another 5 per slot have been squeezed in?
Just interested in all the modelling that has been done to predict rider flows through controls.
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Don't spend too long even thinking about this. We will have to allocate about 1600 places by start time, at 31st march ..but only 1525 ( +/- 50 ) will start. How the 75 or so drop outs will be scattered thru the start times we have no idea .. therefore no great logical analysis of exactly how to place the 1600 spaces can be done. Nor do we have any idea of the number of fast/medium/slow riders applying in each start slot.. so estimating their sleep stop strategy with any accuracy is impossible at this stage.
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Plus the possible things which go wrong during the start weekend. Like the Catalan team which suffered from bike theft the night before the 2009 start. As a result of that they started all together after the last scheduled start spot, In this way they could arrange a new bike for the rider whose bike was stolen.
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Start times .. there are about 100+ riders who have not indicated a preferred start time yet .. but with every starting time up to 1.00pm already fully subscribed .. and the allocation of unlucky riders possibly going to be handled in order of least oversubscribed put into the nearest available time slot .. then it must be extremely likely that every unlucky 9.00 applicant must end up in 3.30 , 3.45, 4.00
Just flagging this so that the 9.00 applicants are aware of the likely outcome if they are unlucky.
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So I take it the No Preference riders will be allocated before any ballot losers are reallocated?
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I'd assume the opposite - that No Preference indicates exactly that, and they'll be slotted in after all other riders have been allocated a start time.
If not, deleting your preference suddenly becomes the newest way to (try to) game the system.
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Danial has said that HE will make the decisions on allocation of those who miss out on their preferred start time. I have no idea whether the first re-allocated will be least oversubscribed .. females first ..oldest first or even reverse alphabetical .. all I was trying to do was make sure that in particular the unlucky 9.00 start preferences realise that they are very very likely to be in the last 2 or 3 groups away at nearly 4.00pm
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Danial has said that HE will make the decisions on allocation of those who miss out on their preferred start time.
Perhaps this would be a good time to publish his home address so that the bribes gifts of thanks can be dispatched....
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One thing that has caught my eye is that in terms of places the 100hr group is oversubscribed - 291 starters for 230 places?
Will everyone that wants a 100hr place be accommodated or will a few unlucky souls get busted back to the 116:40hr group?
Apologies in advance if this has been covered already.
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My input .. but I am not the boss .. is that we want to spread the load on the controls as much as we can ..if you include the pencilled in 5.00am start then there are 300 places in total .. and I believe that the invitation fast group are already in the 6.00am start box. So probably not a huge problem to accommodate a few extra if total goes above 300. There will also be drop outs before July .. rule of thumb .. 10% . I have heard no suggestion that any 100 hour riders will be put back to the after 9.00 am starts and it certainly does not help to spread the load on the controls.
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As per the article on start times we provided. If you go for a 100 hour slot, then you will get a 100 hour slot. Don't forget there are a number of riders we will move to the 5am slot during allocation. So far less redustribution of 100 hour riders required than for 116 hr 40 min riders. Not oversubscribed overall and at most 100 hour riders will have their start moved by 2 hours but likely less.
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Start times locked around midnight and email confirmation of start time has just arrived.
Someone's been busy. THANK YOU. 👍
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Agreed. Very efficient to have start time confirmation this morning. Thank you for the efforts that have made this possible.
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+1 :) :)
Agreed. Very efficient to have start time confirmation this morning. Thank you for the efforts that have made this possible.