Yet Another Cycling Forum

Off Topic => The Pub => Topic started by: Seineseeker on 02 April, 2008, 08:12:02 am

Title: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Seineseeker on 02 April, 2008, 08:12:02 am
I have it on authority (not that good, from someone who has bought a long range weather forecast) that May will be very hot, June above average warm, and July and August nothing special. So plan your May rides!
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: clarion on 02 April, 2008, 08:27:38 am
I have it on authority (not that good, from someone who has bought a long range weather forecast) that May will be very hot, June above average warm, and July and August nothing special. So plan your May rides!

I'm just hoping for some sunshine this weekend when I'm camping  :)
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: TheLurker on 02 April, 2008, 08:37:47 am
If you don't want to fork out for a forecast this site, http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/, is better than nothing.

F'rinstance...
Seasonal
  http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent2.aspx?type=for_d90uk
45 Day
 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent2.aspx?type=for_d45uk
14 Day
 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent2.aspx?type=for_d14uk

chr$
Lurk
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Si on 02 April, 2008, 12:02:39 pm
I have it on authority (not that good, from someone who has bought a long range weather forecast) that May will be very hot, June above average warm, and July and August nothing special. So plan your May rides!

I'm just hoping for some sunshine this weekend when I'm camping  :)

Sleet/snow in Stafford on Sunday morning.
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Greenbank on 02 April, 2008, 12:11:01 pm
I don't want to be still doing the Elenith at coming up to 2am Sunday morning.
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Wendy on 02 April, 2008, 12:13:05 pm
In my opinion forecasts for more than 6 hours ahead are pretty much UTTERLY useless.
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: tiermat on 02 April, 2008, 12:21:11 pm
In my opinion forecasts for more than 6 hours ahead are pretty much UTTERLY useless.

I remember hearing an interview with a guy from the Met Office on t'wireless and his point was that the further away you get from now, the accuracy of weather forecasts get exponentially less and less accurate.  This gets to a point whereby, after 36 hours or so there is a bigger chance of it being wrong than it has being right.

He also stated that if you assume that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's you will be right 80% of the time!!!
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: bobb on 02 April, 2008, 12:25:50 pm
In my opinion forecasts for more than 6 hours ahead are pretty much UTTERLY useless.

Indeed.

My forecast for the coming UK summer is: Not a shite as last year.

Surely I can't be wrong!!
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Martin on 02 April, 2008, 12:26:20 pm
I have it on authority (not that good, from someone who has bought a long range weather forecast) that May will be very hot, June above average warm, and July and August nothing special. So plan your May rides!

what about June in La Belle France?
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Wendy on 02 April, 2008, 12:29:37 pm
;)

I spend a lot of time comparing weather forecasts and the reality, because they affect my working life so much.
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: rafletcher on 02 April, 2008, 12:35:15 pm
I have it on authority (not that good, from someone who has bought a long range weather forecast) that May will be very hot, June above average warm, and July and August nothing special. So plan your May rides!

I'm just hoping for some sunshine this weekend when I'm camping  :)

Hope it's not near Aylesbury - snow showers forecast for Sunday....
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Seineseeker on 02 April, 2008, 12:57:22 pm
I have it on authority (not that good, from someone who has bought a long range weather forecast) that May will be very hot, June above average warm, and July and August nothing special. So plan your May rides!

what about June in La Belle France?

Well actually it was a long range forecast for France. So June here should be good.
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Martin on 02 April, 2008, 02:18:26 pm
I have it on authority (not that good, from someone who has bought a long range weather forecast) that May will be very hot, June above average warm, and July and August nothing special. So plan your May rides!

what about June in La Belle France?

Well actually it was a long range forecast for France. So June here should be good.

I thought it sounded a bit optimistic for the UK...
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: juliet on 04 April, 2008, 01:28:52 pm
IME long-range forecasts seem to do OK on the general tenor of things, but not for any particular day. 

It was, for example, clear from some time ahead that both Glastonbury & Glade were going to be unpleasant last year, & right enough it tipped it down for both :(

So I have my thumbs v firmly crossed for decent weather June/July.  Pleasant in May for the BCM would be nice, as well :)
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Chris S on 04 April, 2008, 02:01:24 pm
I see the UKMO has released the Summer 2008 forecast.

In a nutshell, it'll rain sometimes but probably not as much as last summer, and it'll probably be a little warmer than the long-term average, but with some cooler spells.

F*ck Me - isn't it amazing what you can do with £300m worth of computer hardware  ::-).
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Mr Larrington on 04 April, 2008, 03:23:43 pm
I see the UKMO has released the Summer 2008 forecast.

In a nutshell, it'll rain sometimes but probably not as much as last summer, and it'll probably be a little warmer than the long-term average, but with some cooler spells.

F*ck Me - isn't it amazing what you can do with £300m worth of computer hardware  ::-).

Partly cloudy, with a chance of rain.
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: nuttycyclist on 04 April, 2008, 04:08:35 pm
Stop Press!

Long Range Forecast for today until the olympics in 2012.

"Changeable"
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: border-rider on 04 April, 2008, 04:12:07 pm
Is it going to be settled after that then ?
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: nuttycyclist on 04 April, 2008, 04:14:35 pm
Ask me nearer the time.
Title: Re: Long range weather forecast
Post by: Chris S on 04 April, 2008, 04:23:54 pm
Most forecasts are correct if you say "broadly the same as yesterday".