Yet Another Cycling Forum

General Category => Freewheeling => Racing => Topic started by: Nuncio on March 14, 2012, 01:33:29 pm

Title: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Nuncio on March 14, 2012, 01:33:29 pm
I'm looking forward to this.  Predictions anyone?  I think I'll plump for Cancellara.  He's won it before and has started the season strongly.  Then again, so has Cav.  Maybe Boassan Haagen as a Sky Plan B if Cav has an off-day.  Boonen's looking strong but it's a long way to carry that large body of his and haul it over the Cipressa and Poggio towards the end. Or will Liquigas' two-pronged attack of Nibali and Sagan have the home support cheering?  BMC need to get their season going and have no less than 4 potential winners in Hushovd, Gilbert, Van Avermaet and Ballan.  And Green Edge will have a strong team supporting last year's winner Goss and they'll be deperate to get their European season started.  Have I missed anyone?
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Steve GT on March 15, 2012, 12:05:22 pm
Would like to see Cav win, but I think it will be Cancellara.
BTW here is a video clip of Jaun Antonio Fletcha descending the Cipressa.
http://michaelbarry.ca/category/video/page/2/ (http://michaelbarry.ca/category/video/page/2/)
 
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Rhys W on March 15, 2012, 02:37:16 pm
I suspect Cav wants it more than his rivals, which counts for a lot. I don't think Boonen's got it but Cancellara is always a good bet. Always difficult to predict what happens on the Poggio and Cipressa.

I'll miss this (at least live) because I'm marshalling at my club's open 10. However, we do have a Team Sky pro entered and I might witness his first professional victory!
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: David Martin on March 15, 2012, 02:45:24 pm
Luke Rowe?
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: JT on March 15, 2012, 03:00:31 pm
It's a difficult race to predict but Cav, Cancellara, Sagan, and Oscar Freire have all got decent form.

What I admire about Cav is that he's so open about wanting to win this race in the World Champ's jersey. It's almost as if he needs the extra pressure on himself to perform.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: bobb on March 15, 2012, 05:20:17 pm
What I admire about Cav is that he's so open about wanting to win this race in the World Champ's jersey. It's almost as if he needs the extra pressure on himself to perform.

That's the remarkable thing about him. Everyone knew about his and GB's plans for the worlds in Copenhagen for about 3 years and there was still absolutely fuck all anybody could do to stop them!

I'll go for Cav on Sunday. He's as safe a bet as anyone....
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Nuncio on March 15, 2012, 08:20:45 pm
An appetite whetter - the 1992 finale. Kelly's last hurrah, toe-clips and all.  You may want to turn the sound off if you can't stand Duffers. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL3jQmkj3uI
Title: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: citoyen on March 15, 2012, 08:34:06 pm
I'm backing Cav just because, like bobb says, when he says he wants to win something, he usually does.

He's already shown that he has the beating of Freire and Boonen this season and, as in the Worlds, the team will probably do its utmost to quash any attempted breakaway, which is surely the only way Cancellara can win, right?

I'll miss the race, alas, as my son has a rugby tournament all day on Sunday, but I'll record it and try to avoid seeing the result, Likely Lads style...

d.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: ran doner on March 15, 2012, 09:21:29 pm
Thor is out. Wiggo is in.

Cancellara for me. Maybe Sagan.

I think the peleton will just climb to fast for Cav to stay with them. Maybe Eddie Bos, Bozic, Degenkolb and Haussler better placed as sprinters ?

Looking forward to having a proper look at Betancur as well. Might go well with Garzelli.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: JT on March 15, 2012, 09:22:36 pm
I'm backing Cav just because, like bobb says, when he says he wants to win something, he usually does.

He's already shown that he has the beating of Freire and Boonen this season and, as in the Worlds, the team will probably do its utmost to quash any attempted breakaway, which is surely the only way Cancellara can win, right?

I'll miss the race, alas, as my son has a rugby tournament all day on Sunday, but I'll record it and try to avoid seeing the result, Likely Lads style...

d.

MSR is on Saturday.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: ran doner on March 15, 2012, 09:23:09 pm

I'll miss the race, alas, as my son has a rugby tournament all day on Sunday, but I'll record it and try to avoid seeing the result, Likely Lads style...

d.

You will miss it if you wait til Sunday, its on Saturday  :facepalm:
Title: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: citoyen on March 15, 2012, 10:33:50 pm
:facepalm:

Well, that's good news, I guess.  ;D

d.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Rhys W on March 15, 2012, 11:11:13 pm
Luke Rowe?

Yes, I think his father is also entered, and his brother Matt won this event two years ago.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Rig of Jarkness on March 16, 2012, 07:06:21 am
It's a difficult race to predict but Cav, Cancellara, Sagan, and Oscar Freire have all got decent form.

And not forgetting Boonen and Nibali.

I would love to see Cav win in his rainbow jersey. 
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: GruB on March 16, 2012, 10:32:31 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHeb2LYtY7U
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Nuncio on March 17, 2012, 05:53:02 pm
Are you a happy GruB?
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: GruB on March 17, 2012, 06:51:30 pm
Yep.  Saw the last 10km as well.   :thumbsup: I had been following it on Twitter.  Didn't see what went wrong with Sky though?
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Rhys W on March 17, 2012, 07:12:10 pm
Cav was dropped on the Passo di Turchino, so plan B was put in operation.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: citoyen on March 17, 2012, 10:14:07 pm
Cav was dropped on the Passo di Turchino, so plan B was put in operation.

Perhaps plan B needs a bit more work? They seemed to dither too too long before making the decision to ditch plan A.

Great win for Gerrans. Nibali is looking good too.
 
d.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Simonb on March 17, 2012, 10:28:42 pm
Just amazing to watch Cancellara hold off the chasing group as they launched an all-out sprint -- what a superb rider he is! Good win for Gerrans too.

Nibali? Meh.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Karla on March 17, 2012, 11:34:27 pm
Just amazing to watch Cancellara hold off the chasing group as they launched an all-out sprint -- what a superb rider he is! Good win for Gerrans too.

Nibali? Meh.

I would have loved to see Spartacus win, and that was an impressive finish.  What a pity he couldn't hold off Gerrans. 
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Rhys W on March 17, 2012, 11:43:36 pm
I don't enjoy watching goalhangers win like that. The other two took advantage of Cancellara's ability to ride off the front yet refused to do any work themselves. That's racing I suppose but I prefer class and style to cynicism.

BTW, I did see a Team Sky rider take his first pro win today - local boy done good Luke Rowe is £25 richer having won the Cardiff Ajax CC open 10. He did a 20:07 on a rather damp and cold afternoon - the course record is a 19:48 jointly held by Magnus Backstedt (when he was riding for Liquigas) and Chris Shepard, fresh from the Commonwealth Games a few years earlier. He insisted on speaking up to thank the organiser and helpers for putting on the event - good man!
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on March 17, 2012, 11:54:43 pm
When racing is your job, winning is what is important. The rest is just something for the fans to argue about.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 05:54:46 am
That is certainly true, and he had the the opportunity and he had to take it. But, there are wins and there are wins....not much class on this one.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: mattc on March 18, 2012, 08:47:27 am
I don't enjoy watching goalhangers win like that. The other two took advantage of Cancellara's ability to ride off the front yet refused to do any work themselves. That's racing I suppose but I prefer class and style to cynicism.

That is indeed bunch racing! C knows he will win most TTs, but the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event.

Karma was on his side at the Olympics, IIRC. He was the only rider prepared to chase down a breakaway, everyone else just wanted silver. So he just rode them all into the dust. Class  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 10:32:30 am
That is indeed bunch racing! C knows he will win most TTs, but the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event.

Bollocks. Have a look at his  palmarès (http://velopalmares.free.fr/cancellara.htm)



Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: plum on March 18, 2012, 10:40:43 am
That is indeed bunch racing! C knows he will win most TTs, but the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event.

Bollocks. Have a look at his  palmarès (http://velopalmares.free.fr/cancellara.htm)

That makes no sense, just because he's won a lot of stuff doesn't mean that he's favourite to win every race he's in, or even every bunch finish he's involved in.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 11:07:35 am
Nobody has said he is.

Have a look at his palmarès. Now work out what proportion of those are TTs.

Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: plum on March 18, 2012, 11:13:19 am
Nobody has said he is.
You have. mattc said the odds are against him, you said that was bollocks. By definition if the odds are not against him then you are claiming that he is the favourite.

Now you have a look his palmares and work out how many [non TT] races he entered but did not win. Most of them. Clearly the odds are against him.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 11:19:24 am
Matt is implying that Cancellara is really just a TT winner, a quick look at his wins shows that is not the case. Beyond that, I can't be arsed. Enjoy your day.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on March 18, 2012, 11:19:41 am
How many racers don't lose more races than they win, Beryl Burton aside?
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Exit Stage Left on March 18, 2012, 11:22:13 am
Nobody has said he is.

Have a look at his palmarès. Now work out what proportion of those are TTs.

It's difficult to see from that list of wins, as so many are in stage races, so they may be the time-trial stages. Wins by rouleurs don't make for good television, people seem to want the excitement of a bunch sprint, or the drama of a mountain-top finish, so apart from Paris-Roubaix a lot of them go unnoticed.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: plum on March 18, 2012, 11:39:27 am
Matt is implying that Cancellara is really just a TT winner, a quick look at his wins shows that is not the case. Beyond that, I can't be arsed. Enjoy your day.

Matt is implying that the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event, a quick look at his wins shows that is the case.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 11:49:35 am
The Odds (http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/one-day-classics?oc_mo_redir=false)


Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: plum on March 18, 2012, 11:55:21 am
The Odds (http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/one-day-classics?oc_mo_redir=false)
Those odds show three to one against him winning. Making the 'odds are against him' idea even clearer.

And that's one race out of the dozens of one day races and stages in multi-stage events he'll be taking part in over the season, and he's going to win hardly any of them.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 12:03:51 pm
Curiously the odds are even more against all other riders.

Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: plum on March 18, 2012, 12:29:55 pm
And yet when you add them all up the other riders have a cumulatively massive advantage. Curiouser and curiouser.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Nuncio on March 18, 2012, 01:15:23 pm
Just amazing to watch Cancellara hold off the chasing group as they launched an all-out sprint -- what a superb rider he is! Good win for Gerrans too.

Nibali? Meh.

I can't help but think that if it was Nibali riding in support of Sagan rather than the other way round, that Sagan could have won it. Maybe Sagan will get his chance in the weeks to come.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 02:40:57 pm
And yet when you add them all up the other riders have a cumulatively massive advantage. Curiouser and curiouser.

And yet only one person can win at a time.

I can't understand why bookmakers make so much money when the people they suggest have the best odds of winning clearly have the least because they lose more races than they win.

Maybe Merckx wasn't as great as we were led to believe.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: plum on March 18, 2012, 02:57:33 pm
And yet when you add them all up the other riders have a cumulatively massive advantage. Curiouser and curiouser.

And yet only one person can win at a time.

I can't understand why bookmakers make so much money when the people they suggest have the best odds of winning clearly have the least because they lose more races than they win.

Maybe Merckx wasn't as great as we were led to believe.

Eddie Merckx won approx one in every three races he entered; he was the favourite for almost of them despite losing two races for every one he won. He rode something like 150 TdF stages and won 34 of them, less than one in four. You having problems understanding fractions doesn't make him any less of a rider.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 03:06:00 pm
No but it still makes him more of a loser than a winner if we are to view things on your spectrum.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: plum on March 18, 2012, 03:35:28 pm
One 1st place makes you a winner no matter how many times you might fail before or after. Failing to place in a big field doesn't make you a loser.

http://youtu.be/10HgJjb7zVk
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 04:13:22 pm
Failing to place in a big field doesn't make you a loser.

Cancellara placed yesterday, and yet he was one of 148 losers.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: GruB on March 18, 2012, 04:18:59 pm
...... and Simon Gerrans was the winner.  ;D ;D
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Exit Stage Left on March 18, 2012, 04:24:57 pm
...... and Simon Gerrans was the winner.  ;D ;D

He's also the leader in the UCI rankings.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 04:32:00 pm
...... and Simon Gerrans was the winner.  ;D ;D

One of the winners, GruB.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: GruB on March 18, 2012, 04:35:33 pm
But I thought you said........

And yet only one person can win at a time.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on March 18, 2012, 04:37:30 pm
But more than one person has won MSR over the years...
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 04:45:08 pm
Yes, Cancellara being one of them (+ Paris-Roubaix twice) but apparently that means the odds are against him now

 ;D
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: GruB on March 18, 2012, 04:49:44 pm
That is odd, someone of his class should be favourite.  ::-)
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: plum on March 18, 2012, 04:56:36 pm
It's not biconditional:

Odds on implies favourite
Favourite does not imply odds on.

Except in [mainly] one on one contests like boxing or football. Or in the land of Flatus where apparently arithmetic works differently from the rest of the world.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: mattc on March 18, 2012, 05:06:45 pm
i don't understand all these numbers, but I still think he's a jolly good Trialist  (and rode jolly well in the Olympic Road Race - as I may have mentioned earlier)
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 05:09:01 pm
It's not biconditional:

Odds on implies favourite
Favourite does not imply odds on.

Except in [mainly] one on one contests like boxing or football. Or in the land of Flatus where apparently arithmetic works differently from the rest of the world.

Funny that. I'm almost sure I haven't used the word favourite even once in this thread.

Don't let that stop you though...
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 05:10:53 pm
i don't understand all these numbers, but I still think he's a jolly good Trialist  (and rode jolly well in the Olympic Road Race - as I may have mentioned earlier)

Best in the world, mate, but that doesn't stop him being one of the top One Day Classic riders too  ;)

Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: GruB on March 18, 2012, 05:14:08 pm
i don't understand all these numbers, but I still think he's a jolly good Trialist  (and rode jolly well in the Olympic Road Race - as I may have mentioned earlier)

Best in the world, mate, but that doesn't stop him being one of the top One Day Classic riders too  ;)

Isn't that because of the little engine he has in the bottom bracket?
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Exit Stage Left on March 18, 2012, 05:29:07 pm
Cancellara's plans were known. http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest/532084/cancellara-plans-to-upset-san-remo-sprint.html
Gerrans was there to police that break, so there was no reason for him to work. Cancellara has to avoid a bunch sprint to win, which he can often achieve.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: plum on March 18, 2012, 05:47:42 pm
It's not biconditional:

Odds on implies favourite
Favourite does not imply odds on.

Except in [mainly] one on one contests like boxing or football. Or in the land of Flatus where apparently arithmetic works differently from the rest of the world.

Funny that. I'm almost sure I haven't used the word favourite even once in this thread.

Don't let that stop you though...

Never said you did, I was replying to GruB's post. Carry on.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 06:43:56 pm
i don't understand all these numbers, but I still think he's a jolly good Trialist  (and rode jolly well in the Olympic Road Race - as I may have mentioned earlier)

Best in the world, mate, but that doesn't stop him being one of the top One Day Classic riders too  ;)

Isn't that because of the little engine he has in the bottom bracket?

Now don't bring that into it. That would make him a favourite, and plum will bust a blood vessel.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: andrew_s on March 18, 2012, 07:03:24 pm
Odds on implies favourite
Favourite does not imply odds on.
Except in [mainly] one on one contests like boxing or football. Or in the land of Flatus where apparently arithmetic works differently from the rest of the world.
Bookmaker odds are not probability.
In probability, the odds add up to one, in bookmaker terms, they add up to (one plus tax plus profit).
So, for a bookmaker, there's no problem in having two runners both at odds on
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 07:14:27 pm
Errrr...before this descends any further, let's just remind ourselves that the preceding 3 pages are a result of plum's inability to differentiate between the literal and the figurative.  Note that even mattc recognises this and is eschewing the literal even though it would grant him a rare, albeit Phyrric, victory against arch enemy Flatus

 ;D
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: GruB on March 18, 2012, 07:24:35 pm
Cripes.  I had to go to Wikipedia for that one.  Don't think I will ever get an opportunity to use it either.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Hot Flatus on March 18, 2012, 07:27:46 pm
Try it out on the wife  ;D

Looking back, I think it might have been my bluntness and casual use of abusive language to mattc that incited plum. But then he doesn't know that I'm Australian.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: Cudzoziemiec on March 18, 2012, 07:45:20 pm
An appetite whetter - the 1992 finale. Kelly's last hurrah, toe-clips and all.  You may want to turn the sound off if you can't stand Duffers. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL3jQmkj3uI
"Never ending gabba-yabba" says Little Cudzo.  :D
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: mattc on March 18, 2012, 07:49:22 pm
Errrr...before this descends any further, let's just remind ourselves that the preceding 3 pages are a result of plum's inability to differentiate between the literal and the figurative.  Note that even mattc recognises this and is eschewing the literal even though it would grant him a rare, albeit Phyrric, victory against arch enemy Flatus
It's not all about winning - it's how one plays the game.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on March 18, 2012, 08:03:23 pm

It's not all about winning - it's how one plays the game.

Not if you are a professional.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: plum on March 18, 2012, 08:20:50 pm
Bookmaker odds are not probability.
In probability, the odds add up to one, in bookmaker terms, they add up to (one plus tax plus profit).
So, for a bookmaker, there's no problem in having two runners both at odds on
Which is why I said implies rather than equals.

Looking back, I think it might have been my bluntness and casual use of abusive language to mattc that incited plum.
It was, but I've never seen it as more than a harmless bit of trolling. It's a quiet Sunday and I've had to spend the day sitting doing some marking.
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: GruB on March 18, 2012, 08:24:43 pm
This is why Australians really enjoy to win.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHAKie2XiU0
Title: Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
Post by: mattc on March 19, 2012, 08:25:27 am

It's not all about winning - it's how one plays the game.

Not if you are a professional.
I sincerely hope you're not suggesting Flatus is professional.  :o