Yet Another Cycling Forum

General Category => Audax => Topic started by: red marley on January 08, 2015, 08:04:58 pm

Title: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 08, 2015, 08:04:58 pm
Edit: You can view the OYTT visualization app here: http://gicentre.org/oytt (http://gicentre.org/oytt)



Here are a couple of screenshots from my attempt to visualize the progress of all three riders in the One Year Time Trial (click to enlarge).

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttYearWeek1.png)

Godwin's 1939 progress shown as the grey line, Steve in red, IronOx in green, and when he appears, Tarzan will be in blue.

This is basically a time against cumulative distance graph, but standardised with respect to the distance covered by a ghost Tommy Goodwin continuously riding at his average pace of 205 miles per day. So a rider who managed 205 miles per day would progress horizontally - any faster than that and they would move upwards, slower and they start sloping down. A stationary rider would slope down parallel to the steeply sloping lines seen towards the right (you can spot Tommy's only rest day on October 28th).

The vertical axis therefore shows how far ahead or behind Tommy's ghost a rider is at any point in time. As you can see, Tommy himself was below his 205 miles per day speed between January and May, after which he started to increase his daily pace until November. By standardising distances in this way, it should be possible to compare all four riders' progress even though they started at different times.

The brownish zones to the right represent the previous world records between 1911 and 1939, so if all goes to plan, we should see those being hit from around June onwards.

After the first week, you may just be able to make out that Steve (in red) is above Tommy's actual Jan 1-7 pace, but below that year-long average.  IronOx, with only short rides so far, is already 700 miles behind Tommy's ghost. Below is an enlarged section showing week 1.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttWeek1.png)

This shows food and sleep stops (downward sloping lines). Should be interesting to compare once Tarzan starts and we get to see the tortoise and hare together.

I am still sorting out a few minor bugs in the interactive version of the software (damn you IOS), which will allow you zoom and pan around the charts, but it should appear here soon. The software is being fed by the GPS data from Strava, so should get updated once per day.

Any comments on the design / suggestions for improvements are welcome.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: PAC on January 08, 2015, 08:21:41 pm
That's clear enough :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Kim on January 08, 2015, 08:22:36 pm
Yeah, that's really good.   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on January 08, 2015, 08:28:13 pm
I really like it, particularly the time and cumulative distance. It brings an immediacy to it while illustrating the enormity of the task.

I am sure Steve himself would find it motivating.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on January 08, 2015, 08:28:31 pm
Clear enough for me with my not-fantastic eyesight, but it didn't seem to enlarge when I clicked.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on January 08, 2015, 08:29:38 pm
A very nice visualisation. If I’m interpreting this correctly, it shows also that Tommy Godwin’s pace dropped further in mid January and he didn’t reach the average pace until the middle of May. If Steve keeps up his current pace he could be 1500 miles ahead by the end of February.

I notice the way you’ve shown IronOx starting on 5th January. ISTM that this could be confusing as his start date is not 1st January, so the x axis isn’t normalised. Would it better to time shift IronOx and Tarzan back to allow for their delayed starts?

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 08, 2015, 08:43:53 pm
I notice the way you’ve shown IronOx starting on 5th January. ISTM that this could be confusing as his start date is not 1st January, so the x axis isn’t normalised. Would it better to time shift IronOx and Tarzan back to allow for their delayed starts?

I think of it as a 'virtual partner' ghostly Goodwin setting off at the same time as each of this year's riders. The vertical position of each of the lines therefore represents the distance between the rider and their virtual Godwin. So in that respect they are 'normalised'. I wanted to keep the absolute times for each entry correct so displacing some of the lines back to Jan 1st would make it a little misleading in my opinion. The only aspect of the chart that is not consistent for all riders, is the horizontal position of the world record bands. These all assume a start date of Jan 1st, so for IronOx and Tarzan, those steep lines would each shift to the right by 4 and 10 days respectively.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on January 08, 2015, 08:46:54 pm
Tommy had lots of falls on ice early on, so his mileage was adversely affected.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: matthew on January 08, 2015, 08:48:15 pm
I notice the way you’ve shown IronOx starting on 5th January. ISTM that this could be confusing as his start date is not 1st January, so the x axis isn’t normalised. Would it better to time shift IronOx and Tarzan back to allow for their delayed starts?

I think of it as a 'virtual partner' ghostly Goodwin setting off at the same time as each of this year's riders. The vertical position of each of the lines therefore represents the distance between the rider and their virtual Godwin. So in that respect they are 'normalised'. I wanted to keep the absolute times for each entry correct so displacing some of the lines back to Jan 1st would make it a little misleading in my opinion. The only aspect of the chart that is not consistent for all riders, is the horizontal position of the world record bands. These all assume a start date of Jan 1st, so for IronOx and Tarzan, those steep lines would each shift to the right by 4 and 10 days respectively.

Jo,

That works for normalising against the average of Tommy (the X axis) however it makes comparing against Tommy's actual ride and between riders harder as you have to mentally shift the later starters.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 08, 2015, 08:54:28 pm
Fair enough. I guess the value of absolute vs standardised start times depends in part whether it is length of time riding, or time of year / events (e.g. PBP) that has a greater effect on progress. I will add the ability to switch between the two in the interactive version.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ivan on January 08, 2015, 09:42:36 pm
I must be misunderstanding this, but I would have thought that the area under the negative part of the curve for Tommy Godwin would match that of the positive part, that is, an equal amount riding below pace as above it, to reach the average?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 08, 2015, 09:53:28 pm
The speed riding when below the line is, by definition, slower than that above the line, so it contributes less to the total distance (and therefore annual average) than speedy riding. To take an extreme example, if a rider was stationary for the first 6 months then rode at some fixed speed for the second 6 months, the entire graph would be under the 0 line.

It's like the effect on average speed of riding up and down hills. Yes, the shooting down hills raises your average speed, but not as much as slogging upwards lowers it as you tend to spend more time climbing than descending.

[Edit] Or to put it another way: The zero line represents the passage of the Ghost of Godwin who rides continuously at 8.5 mph (=205 miles per day). The time when under the line represents the period when the ghost is ahead and the time above it when the rider is ahead. These don't have to be equal - Ghost of Godwin could be ahead for almost the entire year, only to be pipped at the post on the 31st of December (and please Steve, don't do that as we'll all be having heart attacks over Christmas).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on January 08, 2015, 10:16:33 pm
In fact it’s entirely possible for all but the last point and the first to be below the line. As it would have been the case if the attempt had ended when it crosses the line from below to above in August.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Gareth Rees on January 08, 2015, 10:30:33 pm
I must be misunderstanding this, but I would have thought that the area under the negative part of the curve for Tommy Godwin would match that of the positive part, that is, an equal amount riding below pace as above it, to reach the average?

If, instead of cumulative distance, the graph had plotted daily distance (or weekly, or any other periodization), then you'd be right: the areas above and below the average would be equal.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jsabine on January 08, 2015, 10:47:49 pm
I must be misunderstanding this, but I would have thought that the area under the negative part of the curve for Tommy Godwin would match that of the positive part, that is, an equal amount riding below pace as above it, to reach the average?

If, instead of cumulative distance, the graph had plotted daily distance (or weekly, or any other periodization), then you'd be right: the areas above and below the average would be equal.

That can't be right: it plots - or will - annual distance. No?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ivan on January 08, 2015, 10:55:46 pm
Got it thanks, and it also helps explain why the previous record lines aren't vertical.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on January 08, 2015, 11:05:57 pm
I must be misunderstanding this, but I would have thought that the area under the negative part of the curve for Tommy Godwin would match that of the positive part, that is, an equal amount riding below pace as above it, to reach the average?

If, instead of cumulative distance, the graph had plotted daily distance (or weekly, or any other periodization), then you'd be right: the areas above and below the average would be equal.

Gareth is describing a different visualisation, still spanning a year, breaking the year up into equal-time segments, and simply plotting the distance covered in each segment.


That can't be right: it plots - or will - annual distance. No?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jsabine on January 08, 2015, 11:55:33 pm
I must be misunderstanding this, but I would have thought that the area under the negative part of the curve for Tommy Godwin would match that of the positive part, that is, an equal amount riding below pace as above it, to reach the average?

If, instead of cumulative distance, the graph had plotted daily distance (or weekly, or any other periodization), then you'd be right: the areas above and below the average would be equal.
That can't be right: it plots - or will - annual distance. No?
Gareth is describing a different visualisation, still spanning a year, breaking the year up into equal-time segments, and simply plotting the distance covered in each segment.

Fair enough.

I think I was misled by the fact1 the current graph doesn't plot cumulative distance, in fact doesn't plot absolute distance at all - it merely shows cumulative deficit/surplus vs the ghosted average Tommy.


1: Coupled with a lack of thinking it through
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 09, 2015, 07:25:33 am
First 8 days relative to start date:

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay9.png)

Steve continues to steadily improve on Godwin's January milage with a remarkably consistent performance.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Marmitegeoff on January 09, 2015, 08:06:09 am
Thank you Jo   This makes it all much clearer.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jack_P on January 09, 2015, 08:20:26 am
That's superb, really shows how Tommy Godwin had a Stella Summer riding period.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: ianrauk on January 09, 2015, 10:29:25 am
Thanks Jo.
The graphs really help visualise Steve's challenge.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on January 09, 2015, 01:00:13 pm
Top SCIENCE, jo :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 10, 2015, 12:05:17 am
I've added both Steve's (red dashes) and Tarzan's (blue dashes) planned schedule for the year. Steve has provided two schedules depending on how things go (see his site for rationale (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-schedules-explained)) so I've shaded the area between them.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttYearWeek1Schedule.png)

I hadn't realised quite how ambitious his target was compared to Tommy Godwin's and even Tarzan's. That 10 day tactical advantage that Tarzan has isn't going to count for much if they both stick to their schedules as Steve would be between 4,000 and 8,000 miles up in the last two weeks of their rides.

Over the first 9 days, Steve is on target for his more optimistic schedule  :thumbsup:

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttWeek1Schedule.png)

Should get interesting once Tarzan starts tomorrow.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on January 10, 2015, 12:10:44 am
Thoroughly fascinated by your "visualisations" Jo.

But I don't know you, and I have a Jo in my team who's a JavaScripter. You aren't the same Jo are you?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 10, 2015, 12:12:41 am
Have you ever seen us both in the same room at the same time?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on January 10, 2015, 12:17:09 am
I might have done and never realised it.

Are you a blonde 24 year old female? If so, I'm guessing you're one and the same Jo dammit.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on January 10, 2015, 01:29:20 am
I'm looking forward to Tarzan's start as well. I've ben disappointed that IronOx hasn't been the magnet for our attentions that he might have been.

I'm a bit confused by Tarzan. I thought he had said that he was intending to try to break this record whilst working occasionally. If that's so then I don't think he really comprehends the order of magnitude of the task ahead. OTOH, he's a RAAM guy. He should have some idea.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Somnolent on January 10, 2015, 11:22:27 am
Jo
Fabulous piece of work
Is this going to be 'online' anywhere soon ?
Those of us who are already hooked on TG-watching will want to set it as their home page.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 10, 2015, 11:26:48 am
Thanks PpP. I will place it online in the next day or so. I am still working on making it work smoothly on iOS devices and tidying up the interaction.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Nuncio on January 10, 2015, 11:47:46 am
Marvellous stuff Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 11, 2015, 08:40:01 am
The race is on!

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay10.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on January 11, 2015, 01:50:49 pm
that's superb jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Doo on January 11, 2015, 06:01:25 pm
Yeah, this is the dogs - just what I'm after.

Nice one Jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Graeme on January 11, 2015, 09:37:57 pm
Love this jo.

Is it possible to pick up the top (say) 5 Strava cyclists for comparison?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on January 11, 2015, 09:45:32 pm
Tarzan’s chart still looks slightly offset, perhaps it’d be worth adjusting for time zone.

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 11, 2015, 11:53:35 pm
Thanks for pointing that out Simon. Now corrected for local timezones (both Tarzan and IronOx), which makes comparison a little easier. After Tarzan's second day of riding, he is inching ahead of Steve's second day...

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay11.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on January 12, 2015, 12:09:10 am
that's just too exciting!! can i bear a year of this?..

GO STEVE!!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on January 12, 2015, 12:11:20 am
Best not to think too hard about time zones if/when Tarzan rides RAAM...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on January 12, 2015, 12:43:38 am
I just none of them cross the international date line.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 13, 2015, 06:28:16 am
Things remain close as of 12th Jan...

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay12.png)

Looks like it was a day of two halves for Steve yesterday - much faster with the wind until lunch then battling against it on the way back.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on January 13, 2015, 09:09:56 am
Team is curious - we thought that Tarzan would demonstrate his strength by putting in bigger days than Steve at the start - then begin to find it hard going later -- hare and tortoise -- just doing a few more miles than Steve each day seems to be a developing tactic.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: duncan on January 13, 2015, 09:12:20 am
just doing a few more miles than Steve each day seems to be a developing tactic.

A tactic I can understand - it's always nice to have a target. Assuming he still intends to do a short seventh day, he's going to need to get further ahead on the others though, isn't he?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 13, 2015, 09:21:57 am
He actually did fewer miles than Steve on day 3, but is ahead on account of his marginally longer first couple of days. But I can see that attempting to approximately match Steve would be a good way of him to assess his own ability at taking the record.

DaySteve (miles) Tarzan (miles)
1222.6230.7
2187.0188.8
3187.1183.5
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Nuncio on January 13, 2015, 12:47:45 pm
There's a growing body of Teethgrinder fans here at work now so I shared the latest image with them. There were complimentary responses and a couple of 'Who did those?' I told them it was a fellow Audaxer who lectures in graphs and does graph research in London. That's about right isn't it, Jo?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on January 13, 2015, 01:52:18 pm
That looks great, Jo - but (you'll probably hate me for this...) is it possible to match it against Tommy's daily achievement, rather than the average over the year?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on January 13, 2015, 01:54:37 pm
Tommy's daily line is incorporated, isn't it?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on January 13, 2015, 01:56:00 pm
Tommy's daily line is incorporated, isn't it?

It is. Perhaps Tim means the horizontal should be Tommy's line. If so, I'd prefer the existing arrangement.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Somnolent on January 13, 2015, 01:58:47 pm
I'd prefer the existing arrangement.
Ditto
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 13, 2015, 03:50:19 pm
There's a growing body of Teethgrinder fans here at work now so I shared the latest image with them. There were complimentary responses and a couple of 'Who did those?' I told them it was a fellow Audaxer who lectures in graphs and does graph research in London. That's about right isn't it, Jo?

Thanks! And yes, that about sums it up - "Professor of Visual Analytics" is my formal title, so I am lucky enough to be able to do this kind of thing both for fun and for a living.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Nuncio on January 13, 2015, 05:48:18 pm
Sorry I undersold you.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Phil W on January 13, 2015, 06:18:42 pm
Steve is actually ahead of Tommy's pace. Have you assumed Tommy's pace is 205 miles per day for whole year? I can send Tommy's  actual daily figures if you haven't got them already.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mcshroom on January 13, 2015, 06:51:19 pm
Steve is actually ahead of Tommy's pace. Have you assumed Tommy's pace is 205 miles per day for whole year? I can send Tommy's  actual daily figures if you haven't got them already.

Tommy Godwin's distances are also on the graph - that's the grey line. The axis has been set up on the distance required on average to break the record over the year, which I think makes more sense than having an axis which changes in value every day.

Rather like the World Record lines they draw on swimming pools on the TV.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on January 13, 2015, 07:09:44 pm
Nice way to visualise the unfolding drama through time.  Albeit over time those daily squiggles will become less significant and it will begin to look like a straight line.  Which, when you think about it, tells its own story (it matters less what happens day to day, only the overall trajectory leads the way to victory and glory).

I am no professor, but further down the line an alternative measure might be what average daily distance do they need to do to finish first.  If that makes sense.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Cudzoziemiec on January 13, 2015, 08:34:52 pm
Actually, that makes me wonder - and this has probably been answered already, so sorry - but how is the record holder determined? Let's imagine Tarzan, the hare (shouldn't that cheetah?) reaches 75,066 miles in, say, 300 days - does he then become the record holder until Steve, the tortoise (shouldn't that be some other creature? Tortoises don't have teeth, do they?) reaches 75,067 miles on day 364? Or do they have to ride for a full 365 days regardless of total reached?

(And what if IronOx fails to reach the Godwin Year but carries on and exceeds 100,000 miles in 500 days - because rust is slow but it never sleeps, remember?)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: rr on January 13, 2015, 08:43:59 pm
Interesting use of a cusum plot. One of my favourite SPC methods.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 14, 2015, 06:34:23 am
Tarzan had a good day yesterday and has pushed his lead to 21 miles, but Steve continues strongly on his 82,835 mile schedule.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay13.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 15, 2015, 12:42:13 am
Despite a fall in icy conditions, Steve did better today than Godwin on day 14 and remains close to his upper target. Kurt had another good day in Florida, increasing his lead over Steve in his fifth day of riding.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay14.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: MarkA on January 15, 2015, 08:25:49 am
It will be interesting to see how things look on day 7 when Kurt has his "rest" day as his average will reduce by approximately 10 to 12 miles a day if he sticks to his 100 mile rest day target. 
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 16, 2015, 07:35:16 am
Two long days for Steve and Kurt yesterday. Steve back on his upper target and Kurt increases his lead after 6 days. Will he have a 'rest' day tomorrow or continue on his 190+ miles per day pace?

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay15.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on January 16, 2015, 07:43:46 am
Jo, thankyou!

Superb graphics. Concise commentary a nice extra.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: sg37409 on January 16, 2015, 02:06:07 pm
Not sure if its been asked or if its planned, but if you could try to incorporate hours on the bike and average speed, that would be great too :-)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 17, 2015, 08:36:10 am
Tarzan puts in a monster day to keep his average not far below Godwin's annual average and about 100 miles ahead of Steve. Steve is a little ahead of his upper schedule.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay16.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on January 17, 2015, 08:57:55 am
Not sure if its been asked or if its planned, but if you could try to incorporate hours on the bike and average speed, that would be great too :-)
Yes.

The biggest difference between the two leaders is their average speed (over time - if we assume their total is similar - then this will effectively tell us the TimeOnBike difference too).

I have no idea how best to display it, but it would be a big plus.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on January 17, 2015, 08:59:48 am
You already get riding speed by the steepness of the rising lines. Similarly, time on bike is the horizontal length of the rising lines.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Marmitegeoff on January 17, 2015, 09:30:47 am
You already get riding speed by the steepness of the rising lines. Similarly, time on bike is the horizontal length of the rising lines.

+1    I think that all the information we need is there in the graph, any more would just make it confusing.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 17, 2015, 09:41:18 am
I will add the option of highlighting only the moving parts of each line which might give a stronger impression of the differences between Steve's and Kurt's approaches.

The web version also has the option of showing distances (shown below as the diagonal lines) on the charts, along with some summary statistics.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDistance.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on January 17, 2015, 09:43:22 am
You already get riding speed by the steepness of the rising lines. Similarly, time on bike is the horizontal length of the rising lines.
Yes I know,  but that's not an exact measure,  and I personally find it hard to judge with my human eye.

(Think of Retail Price Inflation graphs - you COULD just plot the actual prices, but the actual inflation figure would be very hard to judge accurately. Much better to plot the actual inflation figure. Its all about clarity - otherwise Jo could just publish a text table of all the figures! )

Also it's very hard to compare e.g. TimeOnBike SA vs KS on Jan 16th. Which is of interest - at least to me.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 18, 2015, 07:04:22 am
Two long days from Steve and Kurt. Steve's first since his midnight 1st Jan ride where he has ridden more than Tommy's annual average distance, so he creeps upward on the chart towards that magic baseline.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay17.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on January 18, 2015, 07:45:37 pm
Steve is actually ahead of Tommy's pace. Have you assumed Tommy's pace is 205 miles per day for whole year? I can send Tommy's  actual daily figures if you haven't got them already.

Tommy Godwin's distances are also on the graph - that's the grey line. The axis has been set up on the distance required on average to break the record over the year, which I think makes more sense than having an axis which changes in value every day.

Rather like the World Record lines they draw on swimming pools on the TV.

Ok, got it now!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: sg37409 on January 18, 2015, 07:51:51 pm
You already get riding speed by the steepness of the rising lines. Similarly, time on bike is the horizontal length of the rising lines.

+1    I think that all the information we need is there in the graph, any more would just make it confusing.

Yes, I agree: there's a ton of info which can be gleaned from this graph, and putting more lines would be confusing.
My request would have been better phrased as "an additional graph to show speed and hours".  Meaning if and when Jo gets round to posting these on a web page.  Getting the speed and time as suggested above isn't very clear to my mind. (which sounds critical, but I don't mean it to be)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on January 18, 2015, 09:07:37 pm
I *really* like these graphs Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 19, 2015, 06:29:05 am
Both Steve and Kurt gaining on Tommy's annual average now, despite only being mid-January.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay18.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: matthew on January 19, 2015, 09:20:55 am
Jo, you mention a web version, is it live and if so is there a link?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 19, 2015, 10:48:33 am
I've not added the instructions page yet and the interaction needs some refinement, but you can see a 'beta' version of the visualization app at

http://gicentre.org/oytt

To change the date range and scaling, try dragging either the main chart area or either of the axes.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: matthew on January 19, 2015, 11:04:18 am
 :thumbsup:

Thank you
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Nuncio on January 19, 2015, 01:39:03 pm
You're spoiling us. 
One observation - I tick 'legend' but the lines for Kurt and William still show.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: matthew on January 19, 2015, 01:52:54 pm
Jo

One quick observation, if you turn on the distance markers then I would have thought that the common start should be linked and chosen as the distances are meaningless for someone who starts later than Steve.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on January 19, 2015, 02:15:12 pm
Mmm....great visualisation. If you click on "Full Year" then it is realy scary as it shows clearly just what a small percentage of the total they have actually done. I wish I hadn't clicked now!!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 19, 2015, 02:21:25 pm
Jo

One quick observation, if you turn on the distance markers then I would have thought that the common start should be linked and chosen as the distances are meaningless for someone who starts later than Steve.

Yes I agree. That is one of the changes to make on my TODO list. In the meantime I may just disable the option when not viewing the standardised start times. Edit: Done
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: sg37409 on January 19, 2015, 02:32:29 pm
From the graphs, it doesnt seem that tarzan stops much.  His days seem to be a uniform progression. Is this a limitation of data on his rides, or is this a true reflection of him just not stopping ?

The wee summary at the bottom is what I was hoping for, re avg speed and hours.
Is there rounding going on on Tarzans data ? 1,800 miles.  200 miles/day

Edit to highlight: Tommy was 4k off the pace at one point coming back to a best of being ~1k ahead.  About 5000 miles is about my anual distance, not something to be done on top of 205mpd in about 6 months...  The whole thing is staggering.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: duncan on January 19, 2015, 02:36:57 pm
Hi jo - are you a cricket fan? We have the current run rate - a required run rate would be nice too. i.e. In the days remaining, how many miles per day does each rider have to average to beat the Tommy Godwin record.

This is all fantastic, by the way!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 19, 2015, 02:48:28 pm
From the graphs, it doesnt seem that tarzan stops much.  His days seem to be a uniform progression. Is this a limitation of data on his rides, or is this a true reflection of him just not stopping ?

The wee summary at the bottom is what I was hoping for, re avg speed and hours.
Is there rounding going on on Tarzans data ? 1,800 miles.  200 miles/day

No rounding going on with Kurt's data - just a coincidence. Here are his daily accumulated distances:

1230.7
2419.5
3603.0
4793.1
5984.5
61176.8
71389.0
81589.2
91800.0

To calculate the data for the graphs, I process the GPS files, which include timestamped lat/long points at a fairly high temporal resolution (down to a few seconds in places). I reproject the lat/long into UTM coordinates in order to calculate distances between course points. I then bucket these into 5 minute segments, i.e. every five minutes from midnight to midnight, I record the accumulated distance. These are the data you see in the lines. When 'zoomed out' to see a longer period of time, the visualization will sample at longer intervals (e.g. once an hour), which could hide some of the stops. When zoomed in you should see the full five-minute sample rate and it does look like generally Kurt takes only small stops.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: road-runner on January 19, 2015, 03:41:25 pm
(http://i1288.photobucket.com/albums/b496/22xjR2Udt/YACF/average_zps89dc854e.jpg)
 
The curve is Tommy Godwin's daily mileage and the X axis is his average daily mileage. Please excuse my advertising my ignorance but shouldn't the blue area be the same as the red area in order for the X axis to be the average of all the daily distances? IIRC this is basic 'O' level maths but I haven't needed to use this for over 40 years so my memory is getting blurred!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: duncan on January 19, 2015, 03:45:24 pm
Someone else asked the very same question on page 1 of this thread, and jo gave an explanation :-)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 19, 2015, 03:52:34 pm
And to paraphrase a simple explanation: Imagine someone riding at exactly Godwin's pace of 205 mpd for every day of the year until December 31st when they blitz it and do 500 miles. The blue area would be 0 but the red area positive on the last day.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on January 19, 2015, 05:46:41 pm
You're spoiling us. 
One observation - I tick 'legend' but the lines for Kurt and William still show.
:facepalm:


  ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 19, 2015, 11:15:10 pm
As the web app is now up and running, I won't continue to publish screenshots of the graphs (unless there is a particular demand here). For anyone who doesn't quite 'get' the graph, I've added a How to read the OYTT chart (http://gicentre.org/oytt/howItWorks.html) page.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on January 19, 2015, 11:22:01 pm
I'd like to see the graph each day posted here. In future years, the daily graph and associated comments will be fascinating I think.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: road-runner on January 19, 2015, 11:23:32 pm
Jo, as your chart is so clear and popular would you care to edit your OP to include the URL of where the chart can be found? Your topic is a sticky topic and, like the tracker topic, it would make it easier for everyone if the URL is in the OP. Thank you.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 19, 2015, 11:27:18 pm
OK Monsieur Wobbly. Will do. Mr Runner, I've edited my OP to give the URL to the visualization.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on January 19, 2015, 11:48:21 pm
Much appreciated :)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 20, 2015, 07:14:22 am
Consolidation day for Steve after a very cold early morning and a tough weekend. Remarkably consistent high milage from Kurt.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay19.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 21, 2015, 06:46:24 am
A tough day for Kurt - three punctures and two crashes - but still 179 miles covered. A cold but steady day for Steve keeps him above his upper target.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay20.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 22, 2015, 10:48:04 am
Another tough day for Kurt with more punctures and more offs, but still an impressively consistent distance covered. Steve endures more ice and cold. Both Steve and Kurt increasing their leads over Tommy Godwin day by day.

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt/images/oyttDay21.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on January 22, 2015, 01:05:34 pm
As the graphs become longer (wider?) could you add some faint horizontal lines so it's easier to read against the distance axis?

Ta.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 22, 2015, 02:10:16 pm
The charts aren't getting any longer - just more miles to squeeze into the same space.

But thanks for the suggestion, which I think makes it clearer to read, especially as the riders move away from the 0 baseline. I've updated today's image along with the web app to include both horizontal and vertical lines.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on January 22, 2015, 06:16:07 pm
Luvverly, thanks.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: aquilo on January 22, 2015, 07:47:24 pm
Hi Jo

The answer is probably blindingly obvious, but where can I find the web app? Great work by the way :)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Pale Rider on January 22, 2015, 08:17:24 pm
Hi Jo

The answer is probably blindingly obvious, but where can I find the web app? Great work by the way :)

http://gicentre.org/oytt/
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: HTFB on January 22, 2015, 09:58:27 pm
I unclicked "Legend" on the web chart, but it still showed a line for Tommy Godwin. (And for Steve and Kurt too.)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 22, 2015, 10:01:09 pm
Bzzt!  https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87407.msg1798542#msg1798542
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 22, 2015, 11:29:02 pm
I've updated the web app to make interaction a little easier and hopefully more intuitive. The chart can be scaled by dragging the main area of the chart either horizontally or vertically. You can pan by dragging along either axis.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hatler on January 22, 2015, 11:50:54 pm
Very cool.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 23, 2015, 06:20:47 am
Day 22: Kurt inches his way upwards towards the magic baseline. Steve inches away from his own schedule and Tommy's January total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay22.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on January 23, 2015, 07:06:14 am
This graph makes very interesting viewing. Most of the forum now seems to have virtually discounted IronOx due to his woeful start. If you look at the graph however, he is currently 2872 miles behind Tommy. Tommy, however peaked at well over 4000 miles behind his own final average. If IronOx can sort his work related issues out and start banging he miles out....all is not lost.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on January 23, 2015, 07:41:13 am
Bollocks. Tintin has been too far behind for at least a week. Look at the big miles Tommy needed to do in warmer months to get up to that 205 mile average.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on January 23, 2015, 08:14:47 am
Bollocks. Tintin has been too far behind for at least a week. Look at the big miles Tommy needed to do in warmer months to get up to that 205 mile average.

Tommy pulled it back from over 4000 behind and he had much less time to do it in. Not bollocks.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on January 23, 2015, 08:22:27 am
Care to put a pint on Tintin getting past 2/3 of Tommy's total, so 50,000 miles?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on January 23, 2015, 08:33:45 am
Care to put a pint on Tintin getting past 2/3 of Tommy's total, so 50,000 miles?

Absolutely not. I said its not impossible. I didn't say I thought it would happen. FWIW, I think its a two horse race which will fascinate us all for the rest of the year. May both men survive to finish and may the best man win.
Having said that (and bearing in mind that I have met both of them)
GO STEVE
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: davebax on January 23, 2015, 01:49:30 pm
Jo - the Distance Markers option is only available when the Common Start Times box is unticked. Seems to me it's only appropriate when the Common Start Times box is ticked. As it stands, with CST unticked and DM ticked, Kurt appears to have done approx 1800 miles between 1st & 9th Jan, but he didn't start until 10th. So his cum distance is always overstated by ~1800 miles, based on where his line intersects the distance markers.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 23, 2015, 02:24:21 pm
Thanks for pointing that out. A bug in my coding that I should have spotted ((false != true) == true). I will update shortly. Updated.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on January 23, 2015, 06:42:59 pm
((false != true) == true)

I remember a lecturer (Computer Science BSc, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1981) drillling into us that you never should use " == true ". I'm sure you know why...

;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: thing1 on January 24, 2015, 07:16:38 am
There's at least the reason it's bad in any language, and the reason it's very bad in C.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 24, 2015, 02:56:00 pm
Day 23: There's lots of talk of Kurt trying to outpace Steve by a few miles each day. I think perhaps he has a more straightforward strategy - keeping a consistent average of 200 miles per day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay23.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on January 24, 2015, 03:02:58 pm
I think perhaps he has a more straightforward strategy - keeping a consistent average of 200 miles per day.

That’s my view too. I don’t there is any deliberate effort to shadow Steve’s mileages. I’m sure he keeps abreast of how Steve is doing but I think he’s just riding it his own way.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 25, 2015, 08:11:18 am
Day 24: A largely favourable wind but catastrophic bar failure adds interesting times for Kurt, yet he maintains his impressive 200 miles per day. Despite a hilly day with over 2000m of climbing, Steve keeps himself above his upper schedule with another 190+ mile ride. Both continue to distance themselves from Tommy's January total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay24.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on January 25, 2015, 09:55:36 am
Looks to me like Kurt's taking appropriate advantage of the mild Floridian winter, anticipating that the heat and storms may limit his summer mileage (if he doesn't take himself elsewhere). Steve is constrained currently by the UK winter, and will no doubt be able to put in much longer days in the saddle as conditions improve - as was the case for Tommy. They each have to ride appropriately for themselves and the conditions they find themselves riding in; I think it's impossible to draw any conclusions from a comparison of their efforts so far.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 26, 2015, 06:40:52 am
Day 25: Looking at all four riders, the gaps between them continues to widen. The chances of William regaining the 3,500 miles he has lost to the others seems increasingly remote. Steve and Kurt continue at their steady pace ahead of Tommy who had a period of lower mileage days in late January.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay25.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on January 26, 2015, 07:05:28 am
I think William's biggest contribution to the contest will be skewing the vertical scaling of jo's graphs.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: andrew_s on January 26, 2015, 07:19:04 am
An interesting negative mileage for William on day 16 or thereabouts. Any idea why?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on January 26, 2015, 07:33:56 am
 
I think William's biggest contribution to the contest will be skewing the vertical scaling of jo's graphs.

 ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on January 26, 2015, 07:34:35 am
An interesting negative mileage for William on day 16 or thereabouts. Any idea why?

He didn't ride at all that day.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 26, 2015, 07:37:17 am
An interesting negative mileage for William on day 16 or thereabouts. Any idea why?

Good point. That was his only day of zero milage, and there was a minor bug that incorrectly joined the gap. Now corrected.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 27, 2015, 06:40:39 am
Day 26: Some mechanicals for Kurt and a short transfer during the day keeps his daily total 10 miles or so lower than his recent average. Steve keeps up his slightly above schedule pace before the bad weather forecast for later this week hits.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay26.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: KieronY on January 27, 2015, 06:51:45 am
Jo, what do you make of Kurt's Strava data for yesterday between 162km and 173Km? To me it looks as though he forgot to turn his GPS off whilst in the van.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: andrew_s on January 27, 2015, 07:18:31 am
All you get from the tracker is a set of positions, with no information at all about what happens between positions. The tracker page just joins the final position before the Spot was turned off to the first position after it was turned on. There's no "on" or "off" signal, so that's all it can do.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 27, 2015, 07:19:18 am
Nothing particularly suspicious. He transferred to a vehicle at that point, and while the GPX file directly downloadable from Strava 'joins the dots' to include that transfer, he did switch off the timer on his GPS, so the course file records what looks like the correct distance. The difference between the two is 292.75km (.crs file) and 325.25km (GPX). The summary distance on Strava matches the lower, course file.

His time-distance chart for the day looks reasonable:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay26Zoom.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 28, 2015, 06:39:28 am
Day 27: Steve breaks 5,000 miles in under 4 weeks. Kurt puts in a long day to match Steve's long weekend on his 18th day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay27.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on January 29, 2015, 06:07:21 am
The visualisation is great. One question though..is it possible to reposition the legend on the full year page? It currently obliterates some of the information on the graph?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 29, 2015, 06:22:22 am
I'll look at adding the ability to move the legend when I get some time. You can of course simply remove it if it gets in the way (either by selecting the Steve 'Legend' tick-box or pressing the 'L' key).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 29, 2015, 06:27:43 am
Day 28: A stunning 400km+ day from Kurt lifts his progress line back towards Tommy's annual average. Steve's journey from Dorset back to MK on a windy cold day keeps him above his own schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay28.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on January 29, 2015, 06:31:20 am
I'll look at adding the ability to move the legend when I get some time. You can of course simply remove it if it gets in the way (either by selecting the Steve 'Legend' tick-box or pressing the 'L' key).

Cheers.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 30, 2015, 06:11:45 am
Day 29: After his 250 mile day on the 28th, a later start and yet more mechanical problems for Kurt returns his average to 200 miles per day. Steve continues his very steady 10-day move away from his upper schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay29.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on January 30, 2015, 07:30:23 am
Day 29: After his 250 mile day on the 28th, a later start and yet more mechanical problems for Kurt returns his average to 200 miles per day. Steve continues his very steady 10-day move away from his upper schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay29.png)

Steves line is now telling its own story of consistancy. Brilliant.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 31, 2015, 06:25:06 am
Day 30: More consistency from both riders. Kurt starts the day with some circuits to bring his average daily distance back up to 200 miles per day. Steve bangs out another 190 miles to keep him on his recent two-week pace. Both continue to distance themselves from Tommy's January rides.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay30.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on January 31, 2015, 09:29:21 am
Steve is utterly metronomic, it's astounding.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on January 31, 2015, 01:12:00 pm
A metronome that will swing from andante, to vivace, to presto over the coming months.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 01, 2015, 09:55:37 am
January 2015: Impressive performance from two outstanding riders. Kurt is currently riding about 16 miles per day more than Steve. Should that continue, he would overtake Steve in absolute distance by mid-April (day 103) despite starting 10 days later. However, Steve's schedule is for significantly lengthening his daily distances by that time and while Kurt strays from his published strategy, there will be some interesting times in the spring.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay31.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: citoyen on February 01, 2015, 01:03:06 pm
Kurt is currently riding about 16 miles per day more than Steve. Should that continue, he would overtake Steve in absolute distance by mid-April (day 103) despite starting 10 days later.

Crikey. It'll be interesting to see how that pans out.

Looking at the cumulative distances, it seems Steve will probably pass through the 10,000km mark on Tuesday.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 01, 2015, 06:06:22 pm
Steve's roads more travelled in January 2015:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/saMapJan2015.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on February 01, 2015, 06:43:33 pm
Excellent graphic Jo.

I like how it demonstrates that Steve's been keeping to the flattest part of England, namely East Anglia.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: delthebike on February 01, 2015, 06:45:50 pm
Steve's roads more travelled in January 2015:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/saMapJan2015.png)
Can I share that with an interested faceache group?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 01, 2015, 06:54:17 pm
No problem sharing Del. If there is a chance to credit me "Jo Wood, giCentre, City University London" and/or http://gicentre.org/oytt would be appreciated.

There will be more of these as the months go by.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: bobb on February 01, 2015, 06:59:30 pm
Awesome stuff, jo! Any chance you could do something with elevation data?  :P
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: delthebike on February 01, 2015, 07:01:26 pm
No problem sharing Del.
Thanks for that, shared and credited as above.  ;)

I've also borrowed from Oaky's Marsh GAS info.  ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 01, 2015, 10:36:06 pm
Here are Kurt's January excursions:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ksMapJan2015.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on February 01, 2015, 10:40:22 pm
What the relative scales for Steve's and Kurt's maps?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 01, 2015, 10:55:49 pm
Approximate relative areas:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/floridaAndUK.jpg)

That US is rather a big place given Florida is just a little dangly bit off one of its corners.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 02, 2015, 06:21:47 am
Day 32: Another month, another pair of impressive rides. Kurt now averaging over 201 miles per day. Steve battles a long day of headwind to keep above schedule and 1,000 miles ahead of Tommy.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay32.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on February 02, 2015, 07:19:17 am
"Florida is just a little dangly bit off one of its corners"


LOve the description!  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on February 02, 2015, 07:38:18 pm
"Florida is just a little dangly bit off one of its corners"


LOve the description!  :thumbsup:
Yes, very nice. And a great graphic.

The dangling rather reminded me of this:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mull_of_Kintyre_test
... which I feel sure is familiar to many YACFers ...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 03, 2015, 06:40:05 am
Day 33: In over three weeks of riding for Kurt, he has an impressive moving average of 17.8 mph (28.6 kmph). Over a month of Steve's longer days at 13.7 mph (22.0 kmh) keep him above his 87,000 mile schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay33.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 04, 2015, 06:27:28 am
Day 34: A longer day from Kurt is gradually moving is daily average upwards - 201.4 miles per day. Steve has one of the toughest days of winter weather so far with 15h30m out on the bike.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay34.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 05, 2015, 07:35:42 am
Day 35: After a month of riding, William is 5,000 miles behind Steve. This looks like a deficit from which he will not be able to recover, his longest ride to date being one third of the average daily distance of the other two. The consistency of Kurt and Steve is remarkable.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay35.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on February 05, 2015, 10:42:18 am
The consistency of Kurt and Steve is remarkable.

Indeed!
Also remarkable is the elegance of Jo's presentation.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: nikki on February 05, 2015, 01:03:25 pm
I'm loving the visuals and the succinct reports: thanks jo  :thumbsup:


[I'm worried about the toll it's taking on him. Does he have the mental fortitude to keep going at this pace for the whole 365 days? Can his body take the strain? Do we need to arrange home support? Physiotherapy? More vegan sausages?]
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: loadsabikes on February 05, 2015, 04:43:49 pm
wot Nikki said, brilliant stuff jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Marmitegeoff on February 05, 2015, 04:57:23 pm
I agree with Nikki.    Thank you very much Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Laid Back Rich on February 05, 2015, 08:18:06 pm
Day 35: After a month of riding, William is 5,000 miles behind Steve. This looks like a deficit from which he will not be able to recover, his longest ride to date being one third of the average daily distance of the other two. The consistency of Kurt and Steve is remarkable.

Actually, William is even more remarkably consistent, it's a very straight line, unlike the zigzags of the two favourites. Does he never sleep?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 06, 2015, 05:52:12 am
Day 36: An incident with a car that failed to give way results in a slightly shorter day for Kurt and takes his daily average back to 200 miles. Steve puts in a long day to nudge his daily average to just over 186 miles keeping him within four extra days worth of riding from Tommy's WR pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay36.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 07, 2015, 06:30:46 am
Day37: A long incident-free day for Kurt keeps him within 150 miles of Tommy's WR pace after 28 days of riding. A bitterly cold northerly wind for Steve and a slightly earlier finish has him about 740 miles off the WR average.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay37.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jack_P on February 07, 2015, 12:55:23 pm
Tarzans "rest" day appears to have worked, 205 mile day yesterday and he only stopped for 43 minutes. :o
He will pass Steve's January total with two days to spare
Respect.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 07, 2015, 08:56:28 pm
As a number of people have expressed interest in comparing stopped vs moving time for the riders, I've had a go at visualising their moving time. Movement (darker colours) estimated by comparing distance covered at 5 minute intervals (as usual, Steve in red, Kurt in blue and William in green):

[Edit] I've added a summary column for each day showing the proportion of the day moving (you may have to refresh your browser if you've previously viewed the older images).

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovement.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovement.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/williamMovement.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: billplumtree on February 07, 2015, 09:21:07 pm
That really tells the tactics story so far very clearly.  Thanks, jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: sg37409 on February 07, 2015, 09:32:08 pm
Another great presentation of the data Jo.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mcshroom on February 07, 2015, 09:35:28 pm
Interesting that Steve seems to be keeping to a set start time, whereas Kurt is slowly slipping backwards.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 07, 2015, 09:40:15 pm
Interesting that Steve seems to be keeping to a set start time, whereas Kurt is slowly slipping backwards.

I think Kurt is just getting faster, or at least reducing stopping time during the day as his end of day time isn't slipping to the same extent and he is still doing around 200 miles per day.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on February 07, 2015, 09:43:47 pm
ironox's rides need a defrag ;)

top work jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 07, 2015, 10:03:39 pm
I've defragged each day now so you can really see the difference in the time spent in the saddle.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 08, 2015, 05:26:17 am
Day38: Another weekend and another long ride from Kurt keeps his pace at the WR average. Steve's trip to Leicestershire ensures he is above his schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay38.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 09, 2015, 06:29:19 am
Day 39: A long weekend of riding by Kurt brings him to a significant milestone. He is now ahead of Tommy Godwin's mileage despite starting 9 days later in the year. Steve is 1,260 miles ahead of Tommy.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay39.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: L Hedley on February 09, 2015, 09:20:48 am
I amazed to see how Kurt manages to keep up the mileage when he appears to be posting so many videos on his Facebook page, plus having so much ill luck! Respect to them both but I prefer Steve's lower key profile of 'just riding my bike!' Go Steve!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jack_P on February 09, 2015, 10:55:28 am
To me that longer view appears to show that after Steves long weekend to York  he decided it was maybe a mistake at this time, and settled back into his 180 a day rhythm.
Right now if Kurt can maintain his current speed, time is heavily on his side.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Frank9755 on February 09, 2015, 11:59:23 am
I think it shows that Steve's ride to York put him onto a higher trajectory, above his optimistic schedule.  It also shows that his trajectory inevitably slipped back slightly during the colder weather we had last week.  Given it's a bit milder, and brighter, this week, I expect he'll wind things up very gradually.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on February 09, 2015, 01:21:35 pm
Interesting that Steve seems to be keeping to a set start time, whereas Kurt is slowly slipping backwards.

I reckon Kurt is adjusting his riding time to coincide with daytime ambient temperatures.

Later in the year, he could split his daily mileage into two to take advantage of morning and evening cool. Seista at midday.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 10, 2015, 06:19:26 am
Day 40: After forty days in the wilderness for Steve (but plenty of eating) a longer day narrows the gap slightly with Kurt who himself has some tyre deflation issues but crosses the 10,000km milestone.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay40.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Nuncio on February 10, 2015, 09:26:00 am
As a number of people have expressed interest in comparing stopped vs moving time for the riders, I've had a go at visualising their moving time.

Will you be putting these on the gicentre website and updating them regularly like the progress graph Jo?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jack_P on February 10, 2015, 10:31:44 am
Now that Kurt has reached day 31 the first month comparisons can be made.
I make it:

Kurt     6218 miles     (removing the 6.1 miles of car transfer from 26th Jan)
Steve   5743.6 miles

And during the period from daily ride start to ride end Kurt spent 15 hrs 20 min less time stationary.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 10, 2015, 10:41:00 am
As a number of people have expressed interest in comparing stopped vs moving time for the riders, I've had a go at visualising their moving time.

Will you be putting these on the gicentre website and updating them regularly like the progress graph Jo?

I'll have a go. At the moment the 'time moving' charts are written as a separate application. When I get some time, I will add this as an option to the OYTT chart page so that it is always up to date. I have a busy week this week, so may be a week or so before it is up and running though.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: JohnR on February 10, 2015, 11:12:35 am
A bit like this one done by the aussies?

Scroll down near the bottom of page 9.

http://www.bicycles.net.au/forums/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=81042&start=200
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on February 10, 2015, 12:27:38 pm
I think that's called a Firework chart.

Simple and visually effective.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: MarkA on February 10, 2015, 12:33:41 pm
If Steve achieves his upper schedule Kurt will need to average 242 miles a day for the next 11 months of the year to match it, compared with his average of 200 miles a day in January.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Nuncio on February 10, 2015, 12:58:50 pm
Thanks Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 11, 2015, 06:32:43 am
Day 41: Kurt makes up for a slightly shorter day yesterday by putting in the miles today. Despite a slight daily variation in distance, he appears to be riding to a steady WR pace. Steve has been slowly increasing his daily distance to keep him above his upper schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay41.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 12, 2015, 06:44:03 am
Day42: Like day 41.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay42.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on February 12, 2015, 07:37:52 am
Day42: Like day 41.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay42.png)

Groundhog Day!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: matthew on February 12, 2015, 01:52:35 pm
Day42: Like day 41.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay42.png)

And Jo's endurance / resolve finally broke.

Or probably more likely Jo's work load caught up so that his little side project had to be set aside.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 12, 2015, 03:50:21 pm
I set the alarm at 5:45 every morning in order to do the data processing for the previous day's riding before work proper starts (Strava -> chart -> YACF for all three riders about 20 minutes' work). If I ever feel like giving it a miss, a quick "but what would Steve do?" usually puts it into perspective. This morning, after a particularly heavy week, I was a bit lost for inspiration. Just think of it as a recovery day before the big push later on.

And in my defence, Day 42 was like day 41.  ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on February 12, 2015, 04:12:27 pm
Day 241: Jo hasn't shaved in 3 months. But the graphs look great.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on February 12, 2015, 04:35:58 pm
Day 42 was like day 41.  ;D

Yes; I read that as yet another perfect informative summary!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: matthew on February 12, 2015, 05:34:04 pm
Jo, it wasn't meant as a dig. Thank you for all your efforts to develop and maintain the graph.

regarding daily data grabbing, do you not have a student who could be tasked in return for a nice little conference poster.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jsabine on February 12, 2015, 05:36:56 pm
0545.

Student.

You reckon?

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: αdαmsκι on February 12, 2015, 06:06:00 pm
about 20 minutes' work).

(20 ÷ 60) * 365 = 121 hours per annum :o
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Kim on February 12, 2015, 06:49:15 pm
0545.

Student.

You reckon?

CS student, maybe.  They'd still be up from the previous day working on the code to grab the data automatically.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 12, 2015, 07:26:48 pm
Matthew - your comment wasn't taken as a dig at all. I thought is was quite funny.

Much as it might be convenient to pass on to a student, I do really enjoy working on this and I fully intend to get some kind of paper out of it (I've already managed to get one of of the LEL visualization work, which I'll share once it is published).

I've tried to automate the data capture as much as I can. The time consuming bits are (i) getting the files from Strava converted into .crs files (the Strava API can't be used for this as it only allows you to process your own uploads); (ii) selecting an appropriate screenshot and two sentence summary for YACF. Perhaps I should just bung a graphic up and we have a caption competition.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Kim on February 12, 2015, 07:47:18 pm
I'm sure MegaHAL could generate a summary if you primed it with enough miles, sausages and gibbons...   ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 13, 2015, 06:22:33 am
Day 43: Kurt's day was slightly shorter than recent rides but he is still within a day's riding of Tommy's WR pace. Steve has had a straight run of ~200 mile days this week edging him away from his most optimistic schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay43.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on February 13, 2015, 08:08:59 am
Day 43: Kurt's day was slightly shorter than recent rides but he is still within a day's riding of Tommy's WR pace. Steve has had a straight run of ~200 mile days this week edging him away from his most optimistic schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay43.png)

It will be interesting to see what effect Kurts participation in the Sebring 12 has on his daily milage. I predict an easier day the day before, a monster day in the event and then another couple of easier days as he "recovers".
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on February 13, 2015, 09:48:01 am
A monster day? That would make a change.  ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 14, 2015, 05:45:34 am
Day 44: Kurt eases off with "only" 120 miles covered in preparation for a big day's racing at Sebring. The drop in cumulative average shows just how tough this challenge really is. Steve continues with his week of ~195 mile days to edge away from his February schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay44.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 14, 2015, 08:14:54 am
Now with added trendiness. To see the daily trend line, select the tick box below the chart (http://gicentre.org/oytt). This makes it easier to compare the riders and progress against their schedules.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay44Trend.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on February 14, 2015, 08:19:03 am
That Kurt's 200km rest day looks like a tiny ride compared to the other points illustrates how heroic their daily averages are.  200km is still a bloomin long way.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 15, 2015, 07:51:51 am
Day 45: Kurt wins the Sebring 12hr race as a 'side project' with 253.2 miles before adding another 10 to the OYTT for good measure. Meanwhile Steve knocks out a cool 193 miles to keep his consistent pace. William records his highest daily total so far at 81 miles, but has a deficit of over 7,000 miles to make up.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay45.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on February 15, 2015, 09:51:59 am
Steve's zig-zag is moving inexorably away from his planned higher schedule. In a few more weeks it will be approaching that magic horizontal line as he starts knocking out >206 mile days, day after day. Can't wait.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 16, 2015, 06:28:11 am
Day 46: The day after Kurt's 253 mile Sebring TT, he's back to 200 miles per day apparently without any ill effect from the weekend's exertions. The overall effect including the pre-race 'rest day' was to edge his average downward a little. Steve's trend is to continue to move slowly away from his upper schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay46.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on February 16, 2015, 11:22:30 am
How soon can you plot a Polynomial to predict the final outcome?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 16, 2015, 12:03:31 pm
I guess that could have been done from day 3 onwards, but I'm not convinced it would be very useful. There is clearly a big seasonal influence on the pattern, so I think Steve's published schedule and Tommy's actual distances are the best predictors in the medium and long term.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: bryn on February 16, 2015, 08:18:54 pm
How soon can you plot a Polynomial to predict the final outcome?

"Predictions are very difficult, especially when they are about the future"
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 17, 2015, 06:30:26 am
Day 47: A long day puts Kurt back on track with a cumulative average of 201 miles per day. Steve's 200 mile day remains above his February schedule. Kurt is now one-week's riding behind Steve after starting nine days behind.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay47.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on February 17, 2015, 02:29:11 pm
TrackLeaders reckons there’s only 30 miles between Steve and Kurt’s totals. Saturday, they may have the same total.  :-\
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 17, 2015, 02:45:19 pm
If it does, then it is clearly wrong. Actual difference is currently 1,172 miles (8818 for Steve vs 7646 miles for Kurt). The SPOT is likely underestimating Steve's rides more than Kurts given that Steve tends to ride wigglier routes than Kurt. Although that wouldn't be enough to account for such a difference. Perhaps it is including Kurt's motorised stages?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jabba on February 17, 2015, 10:24:54 pm
There also seems to be a discrepancy in average speeds on the SPOT site, with Steve's being higher than Kurt's, which is odd given the relative distances covered   ??? ???

Ahhh just noticed Jo's post on the 'tracker' thread  :facepalm:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 18, 2015, 06:29:56 am
Day 48: For four days in a row, Kurt has exceeded 200 miles with an average of 225 miles per day sending him towards that WR pace. Steve's daily average is also up at around 197 mpd. This is a different competition to that a month ago.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay48.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: HTFB on February 18, 2015, 06:41:38 am
Is it only me who finds the click-and-drag resizing interface of the app utterly baffling?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 18, 2015, 06:51:57 am
Is there anything that would make it easier? I'd like to be able to make rescaling as intuitive as possible, so suggestions welcome.

(The intention is that the point you drag stays fixed and the rest of the chart will expand if you drag up or right and contract if you drag down or left. The chart can be panned by dragging either of the axes).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Polar Bear on February 18, 2015, 07:51:19 am
Why do we get lovely smoothed cures one day and yukky zig zags the next?   

Oh, and for a numpty, what exactly does the y axis scale actually mean?   I think the point is that at some point in late October or November Steve's line will burst above x axis indicating that he's surpassed Tommy's annual mileage total but it's sort of an odd representation for somebody who isn't a statto by nature.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ham on February 18, 2015, 08:06:28 am
As a suggestion, could the 0 Y be marked as "205/day - T Godwin Av" and the top and the Y legend say "Annual miles above/below T Godwin"? (which may help the occasional wandering bear)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Frank9755 on February 18, 2015, 08:11:38 am
Speaking as someone who loves data and graphs, I think it's wonderful!

Looking at the lines you can clearly see how Steve had to scale back his mileage during the cold week that we had (days 31-38ish) but has really increased his mileage in the last couple of weeks, now that the days are getting longer quickly. 

For Kurt, those 3 big days have only pulled him back to where he was v Tommy G before his rest day.  It illustrates what they say about time trialling: that the secret is not to go fast but to not go slow.  Here, it's not the big days that move the line, it's the short days. 

For the mostpart, of course, both riders have been extremely consistent.  That is why little changes such as these stand out.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: aoxomoxoa on February 18, 2015, 08:51:22 am
Why do we get lovely smoothed cures one day and yukky zig zags the next?   

Oh, and for a numpty, what exactly does the y axis scale actually mean?   I think the point is that at some point in late October or November Steve's line will burst above x axis indicating that he's surpassed Tommy's annual mileage total but it's sort of an odd representation for somebody who isn't a statto by nature.

I for one find the smoothed trend line more intuitive when visualising progress of TG and Tarzan.

Jo - on the OYTT and How To Read The OYTT Chart webpages on the Gicentre site the text is being rendered in a way that makes it very hard to read on my PC (using Firefox). Is this something other people have noticed?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 18, 2015, 09:29:15 am
Oh, and for a numpty, what exactly does the y axis scale actually mean?   I think the point is that at some point in late October or November Steve's line will burst above x axis indicating that he's surpassed Tommy's annual mileage total but it's sort of an odd representation for somebody who isn't a statto by nature.

Tommy rode an average of 205 miles per day in 1939. That's equivalent to riding continuously at a little over 8 mph. Imagine that Tommy, Steve, Kurt and William all set off together on Jan 1st. The y-axis is simply many miles ahead or behind each rider is compared to 'average Tommy' riding at 8mph. This is why the lines tend to by zig-zagged - while they are moving, riders tend be going faster than 8mph so begin to catch up, shrinking the distance behind average Tommy (move upwards on the chart). When riders stop for food or sleep, average Tommy keeps going at his 8mph, so begins to pull in front (riders' lines move downwards on the chart).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: andrew_s on February 18, 2015, 01:39:29 pm
Is there anything that would make it easier? I'd like to be able to make rescaling as intuitive as possible, so suggestions welcome.
I keep getting the functions the wrong way round - i.e. trying to rescale using the axes, and pan by dragging the chart
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: HTFB on February 19, 2015, 03:22:02 am
Is there anything that would make it easier? I'd like to be able to make rescaling as intuitive as possible, so suggestions welcome.

(The intention is that the point you drag stays fixed and the rest of the chart will expand if you drag up or right and contract if you drag down or left. The chart can be panned by dragging either of the axes).

I wrote a long screed in reply to this, and then lost the whole lot with a misclick, so maybe I'm not the ideally competent user. But since data visualisation could also involve the interface with the visualisation, here's tedious detail.

The paradigmbehaviour I expected at first was that click-and-drag would select a box to expand into the whole plot, with the Full Year and Recent Progress buttons providing the undo function.

Current behaviour, where undo is also provided by a drag, has the fundamental problem that it's not a homomorphism1: after a click-and-drag that didn't do what I expected, clicking again and dragging the pointer back to where I started doesn't get me back to the same place (nor do two drags releasing the button midway have the same effect as one continuous drag between the same endpoints). I try to undo and find myself at -4000 distance or so with only IronOx's progress displayed.

The other real difficulty is that the scale of response doesn't seem natural or consistent. A long drag right  sometimes expands the time axis enormously; sometimes an attempt to contract the axis leaves the graph at the same scale but changes the grid lines to a fine mesh.

If after overexpanding the time axis I manage to contract again, I often find the distance axis has contracted too. Possibly the manoeuvre has made the app oversensitive to a small wobble up or down as I drag left? The X and Y scales need to be completely independent. Of course when the distance axis is overcontracted it's very hard, and quite unnatural, to find the right place to click and reexpand: particularly if the zero line is off the screen.

Perhaps I'm overconditioned to expect the axis to be on the zero line, but the location of the time axis scroll bar is unintuitive. It took until a couple of days ago to discover either scroll bar, and when I found them the natural action was to click on the pointed ends, rather than dragging, but this had no effect.

Of course it would be much easier to learn how it worked if the graph could respond continuously during a click-and-drag; if this is impossible maybe a rectangular that appeared around the pointer could do?

Quite unrelatedly, the font displays really badly on this Windows XP machine. In Firefox horizontal text is illegible, in Chrome the vertical axis label is.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 19, 2015, 05:10:40 am
Thanks andrew_s and HTFB for those comments. Swapping the zoom and pan regions (axis dragging vs main chart area dragging) makes sense. I'll have a go changing that round along with moving the legend by dragging it.

I'll have a think about the homomorphic zooming, although to me I wouldn't expect it to be so (increasing a value by 50% then decreasing the resulting value by 50% doesn't take you back to where you started: 100 -> 150; 150 -> 75). Dragging a point to some arbitrary position and then back to its start point without releasing does take you back though.

Of course it would be much easier to learn how it worked if the graph could respond continuously during a click-and-drag; if this is impossible maybe a rectangular that appeared around the pointer could do?

This is a bit odd as on my machine at least (Mac OS 10.10.2 on Safari, Firefox and Chrome), it does respond during the drag as intended. Not sure why it might not on your setup but agree that if it is not doing that for you then it would certainly be much harder to navigate and may be the reason for the apparently unintuitive behaviour.

Quite unrelatedly, the font displays really badly on this Windows XP machine. In Firefox horizontal text is illegible, in Chrome the vertical axis label is.

OK, that's a bit of a pain. Could you send me a screenshot via PM and details of your browser version? My daily charts on this thread are how it appears on my setup with very minor variations in the font rendering between browsers, but all appear legible to me.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 19, 2015, 05:25:27 am
Day 49: Kurt posts one of his higher daily rides at over 220 miles and heads steadily towards Godwin's WR pace. Steve bangs out yet another 200 mile day, ahead of his own schedule. Kurt has lengthened his lead over Steve by 153 miles in the last two weeks.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay49.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on February 19, 2015, 06:54:52 am
Apologies if I've missed this, but:
What period is the smoothing done over, to get the trend line?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 19, 2015, 07:07:22 am
The trend is simply a line joining the daily totals and then with some minor (spline) smoothing that rounds off any sharp changes between consecutive days.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on February 19, 2015, 12:26:16 pm
Looks like a 'Rolling average'.
An overall average would become a smooth line because any sudden deviation won't make much of a change in curve direction.

It looks like smoothed Power off a SRM crank; or smoothed RPM from a twin cylinder engine ECU.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on February 19, 2015, 07:14:04 pm
Looks like a 'Rolling average'.
An overall average would become a smooth line because any sudden deviation won't make much of a change in curve direction.
I'm not so sure ...

I reckon its simply a line joining the daily totals, with some minor (spline) smoothing.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 20, 2015, 06:12:41 am
Day 50: A slightly shorter day for both Kurt and Steve - about 25 miles less than the previous couple of days. After Steve made it to the UK's most easterly point a day ago, Kurt rides the bridges to the US's most southerly at Key West.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay50.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on February 20, 2015, 09:35:04 am
Southernmost point in the lower 48.  The Scott-Amundsen base at the South Pole is under US jurisdiction ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on February 20, 2015, 09:36:14 am
"Tarzan of the Antarctic" doesn't really sound right though.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on February 20, 2015, 09:41:43 am
It's the sequel.  Went straight to video.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: andrew_s on February 20, 2015, 09:55:10 am
The Scott-Amundsen base at the South Pole is under US jurisdiction ;D
Not really. The Amundsen-Scott base is just a building that the US Govt. has built somewhere foreign, and is no more under US jurisdiction than (for example) a NASA tracking station in Australia.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on February 20, 2015, 10:57:05 am
Southernmost point in the lower 48.  The Scott-Amundsen base at the South Pole is under US jurisdiction ;D
So is that also the most westerly and easterly point?

(if we're going to be silly about this ...  :P )
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 21, 2015, 04:50:43 am
Day 51: A tough day for Kurt with a vehicle-induced off in the first mile, an ongoing cold and strong winds cutting short the return leg from Key West. Weather improving for Steve who knocks out another 200 miles. In 1939 Tommy rode his longest day so far since Jan 1st (224 miles), but Steve is currently over 1,700 miles ahead of him.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay51.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on February 21, 2015, 10:35:03 am
For me, the fact that Tarzan has completely forsaken his schedule is intriguing. It's not as if he even started out on schedule - on day 1 he was supposed to do 170 but did 60 more.  He has not been incrementally cranking up the mileage as he planned, nor has he been taking weekly 5-hour 'rest days'.  Of course there must be some degree of contingency and flexibility, but what is the point of going to the effort of producing a mileage schedule (unless it's a red herring), if you're going to completely ignore it?  Steve's schedule, OTOH, has been much more realistic so far.  I'm looking forward to the Spring Offensive.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on February 21, 2015, 10:38:16 am
Kurt didn't produce a schedule. He used Steve's schedule so that he could publish 'something' and then proceeded to ride whatever distance he wanted.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on February 21, 2015, 10:54:18 am
Ah, I see.  Doing it all 'on feel'.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 21, 2015, 05:18:48 pm
I keep getting the functions the wrong way round - i.e. trying to rescale using the axes, and pan by dragging the chart

I've now updated it so that dragging around the main chart area pans and the dragging axis labels rescales. You can also drag the legend around if it gets in the way of the data and you still wish to show it.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on February 22, 2015, 04:09:25 am

A yet further increase in already great beauty!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 22, 2015, 06:23:22 am
Day 52: A cold, wet and windy day for Steve as he rides 190 miles from home to Bournemouth. He's now just a (long) day's ride away from the 10,000 milestone. Kurt makes up for yesterday's shorter ride with a 223 miler.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay52.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jabba on February 22, 2015, 08:11:36 am
Great visualisations jo and regardless of how the trend lines are smoothed it does show how consistent and measured TG is in increasing his mileage. Kurt's putting up with the USAian car muppets and the lurgy but nothing seems to get to TG  ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jack_P on February 22, 2015, 01:40:22 pm
Hoppo has put a Strava heat map up on FB for the routes so far. I copied it here https://flic.kr/p/r2n8KE
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 23, 2015, 06:21:45 am
Day 53: Steve is tantalisingly close to 10,000 miles after a day of miserable weather during his return trip from Dorset. Kurt continues to keep up his distance from the WR pace with a 206 mile day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay53.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 24, 2015, 06:24:33 am
Day 54: Steve clears 10,000 miles with a 200 mile day in very windy conditions. Kurt puts in 224 miles to lengthen his like-for-like lead over Steve to 656 miles. William has his third February day with no riding leaving him over 8,800 miles behind WR pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay54.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jack_P on February 24, 2015, 08:28:21 am
Day 54: Steve clears 10,000 miles with a 200 mile day in very windy conditions. Kurt puts in 224 miles to lengthen his like-for-like lead over Steve to 656 miles. William has his third February day with no riding leaving him over 8,800 miles behind WR pace.

By my reckoning Kurts total is at least 6.1 miles less. This stems from his ride on the 26th January when he is travelling at 60 mph with a resting heart rate from the 101 mile point onwards as he receives a vehicle transfer. Unless there was an almighty freak tail wind  ;D

A commendable lead though, three days ahead.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 24, 2015, 09:27:38 am
I agree with your reckoning. I haven't removed it yet from my data on the assumption that he will at some point provide an amended track for that day.

If by the end of the year, the difference between the two riders is within 6 miles, I will have long since retired from producing these images on the grounds of stress.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on February 24, 2015, 10:24:11 am
I am about to ask Hoppo  whether we should raise this with Kurt - so that he rectifies it - or whether we raise it direct with UMCA - my guess is that we will go direct to Kurt
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 25, 2015, 06:00:22 am
Day 55: A few GPS and tracker issues delay riders today so both Kurt and Steve turn in rides around 180 miles. Kurt's ride along the coast battled a stiff headwind. Texas ice prevented William from riding for a second consecutive day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay55.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 25, 2015, 06:22:12 am
You can see the patterns of movement that led to the slightly shorter distances for both riders yesterday (bottom row; Kurt in blue, Steve in red). An unusually long set of stops during the day for Kurt, an unusually late start and no second breakfast for Steve.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay55.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay55.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on February 25, 2015, 10:09:00 am
To be honest I think its remarkable that they haven't had more of these little technical issues (broken bikes, flat batteries) to keep them form riding.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 26, 2015, 07:53:31 am
Day 56: Both Kurt and Steve are showing remarkable consistency. While Kurt's daily distances can vary somewhat, he has maintained the WR pace over the last 11 days despite various mechanical difficulties. Steve has been knocking out just under 200 miles per day for most of the month.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay56.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 27, 2015, 06:13:29 am
Day 57: Another long day for Kurt (223 miles) raises is daily average to date to over 202 miles per day. Steve has a day of rain and wind but manages 193 miles in line with his February schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay57.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TGS on February 27, 2015, 08:19:19 am
When you look at the full year Sunday appears to be when Steve's line should start to go up. Which in my mind is when the challenge really begins.

(https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/31223201/FullYear.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: The French Tandem on February 27, 2015, 02:30:16 pm
When you look at the full year Sunday appears to be when Steve's line should start to go up. Which in my mind is when the challenge really begins.

When you look closely, you you see that there is a change in the slope of Steve's schedule at the end of each month. Does anyone know how many miles per day corresponds to each monthly slope? Maybe Jo will be kind enough to compute that for us!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: michaelo on February 27, 2015, 02:36:14 pm
The data was taken from here: http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: The French Tandem on February 27, 2015, 02:52:21 pm
Thank you!

So, he's planning to ride 285 miles per day, every day, in July? That makes me feel so small!!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Frank9755 on February 27, 2015, 03:55:34 pm
Almost: that is for his 'low' schedule.  He's currently tracking above his high one, which doesn't give him much change from 300 miles per day in July.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on February 27, 2015, 05:54:21 pm
I think it may prove harder to exceed the summer schedule than the winter one. But what do I know having never cycled more than 250 miles or so in a day and never having ridden 10,000 miles in a year let alone in less than two months.

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hatler on February 27, 2015, 06:27:17 pm
10,000 miles in a year ?!?

Paff, I haven't done that mileage in three years.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TGS on February 27, 2015, 07:50:11 pm
When you look at the full year Sunday appears to be when Steve's line should start to go up. Which in my mind is when the challenge really begins.

When you look closely, you you see that there is a change in the slope of Steve's schedule at the end of each month. Does anyone know how many miles per day corresponds to each monthly slope? Maybe Jo will be kind enough to compute that for us!

The change in daily mileage will we gradual and smooth the curve, I'm sure. My point is that Steve has spent January and February warming up. I have no idea how anybody can do the sort of day's that are planned, but if he can do it .... we ain't seen nothin' yet!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on February 27, 2015, 08:01:02 pm
My point is that Steve has spent January and February warming up

Of course he did. It was mostly feckin' freezing that's why.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: The French Tandem on February 27, 2015, 08:22:09 pm
10 000 miles is a warmup? Steve must be an alien from another planet.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TGS on February 27, 2015, 08:47:04 pm
It's a pretty good warm up when July alone has 9000 miles!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 28, 2015, 06:37:41 am
Day 58: Third consecutive day riding over 220 miles for Kurt moves him even closer to WR pace and less than a day from his 10,000 milestone. Steve heads into Essex with a 195 miler. Nothing logged by William in a frosty Texas for the sixth time this month.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay58.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: andrew531 on February 28, 2015, 10:37:38 pm
What average mph do we think Steve will achieve over the Summer? I know his schedule is for 270 mile days in July. He's going to have to up the pace to 18-19mph plus to fit this in day by day. Sure this is possible when he's reduced the load on the bike and ridden himself fitter.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TGS on February 28, 2015, 11:08:33 pm
It's all here

http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-schedules-explained (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-schedules-explained)
http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/82835-miles (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/82835-miles)
http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/87129-miles (http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/87129-miles)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 01, 2015, 06:57:25 am
Day 59: A comparative 'rest' day for Steve and Kurt today, with around 160 and 180 miles respectively. Steve endures yet more winter weather, but is helped by joining a peloton of Essex riders. Kurt breaks the 10,000 mile barrier five days after Steve. The two riders are now almost exactly 1,000 miles apart after two months' awheel.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay59.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 01, 2015, 07:11:46 am
Here are the tyreprints of the three riders as of end of February. All three maps are to the same scale - 600km along each side of the square. I perhaps do William a disservice by not including his California rides but they are no more extensive than his Texas ones shown here.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/mapsJanFebSmall.png)

Also available: The full sized version. (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/mapsJanFeb.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 01, 2015, 07:26:33 am
And their daily movement periods for the first two months (dark = moving; light = stationary)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay59.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay59.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/williamMovementDay59.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on March 01, 2015, 07:33:47 am
Here are the tyreprints of the three riders as of end of February. All three maps are to the same scale - 600km along each side of the square. I perhaps do William a disservice by not including his California rides but they are no more extensive than his Texas ones shown here.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/mapsJanFebSmall.png)

Also available: The full sized version. (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/mapsJanFeb.png)

After the end of the year these heatmaps would make great posters if printed up. Motivational poster to hang on your wall.  Or even a tea towel!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 01, 2015, 07:37:48 am
William's map puts the challenge into perspective. He has ridden 1,680 miles so far this year, which I suspect is further than many of us have managed. Yet in comparison to the other two riders, his is but a smudge on a blank canvas.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jacamo on March 01, 2015, 12:51:27 pm
Day 59: A comparative 'rest' day for Steve and Kurt today, with around 160 and 180 miles respectively.

There may be a problem with Kurts mileage total. His Garmin connect site says 215 while Strava says 178. Alicia seems to think that 215 miles is the correct total and is looking for help to sort it out via Kurts FB page.   
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on March 01, 2015, 01:10:40 pm
Day 59: A comparative 'rest' day for Steve and Kurt today, with around 160 and 180 miles respectively.

There may be a problem with Kurts mileage total. His Garmin connect site says 215 while Strava says 178. Alicia seems to think that 215 miles is the correct total and is looking for help to sort it out via Kurts FB page.

The 215 certainly fits better with what I saw on the tracker page at 01:00 this am.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 02, 2015, 06:23:49 am
Day 60: As we enter the third month, both riders will need to start increasing their daily mileage. Steve's schedule suggests he will start riding above the 205 miles per day WR pace moving upward on the OYTT chart.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay60.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on March 02, 2015, 04:05:54 pm
Looks like the UMCA have joined the graph game.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

No mention of Gibbon visits though?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: duncan on March 02, 2015, 06:23:00 pm
Looks like the UMCA have joined the graph game.
http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

I see they've included the required run-rate, which is useful to know. I'm surprised they put the daily climb in.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on March 02, 2015, 06:46:41 pm
Looks like the UMCA have joined the graph game.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

No mention of Gibbon visits though?
I imagine there is a Marsh Gibbon _somewhere_ in the US, but unless Florida and Texas have one, I can see why UMCA might not be counting such things.

If you disagree I suggest you lodge an appeal direct.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on March 02, 2015, 07:30:44 pm
I've come up empty with searching for a Marsh Gibbon in USAnia but if anyone finds one west of I-25...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on March 03, 2015, 12:14:30 am
Looks like the UMCA have joined the graph game.

http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/

No mention of Gibbon visits though?

I thought that Tarzan was 50 at the start of this ride, yet now it has him as being 52. No wonder he's covering so many miles.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jacamo on March 03, 2015, 01:04:47 am

I thought that Tarzan was 50 at the start of this ride, yet now it has him as being 52. No wonder he's covering so many miles.

He's 51, but the UMCA uses your age at the end of the current year for age group standings.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 03, 2015, 05:53:28 am
Day 61: 213 miles from Kurt keeps him in touch with Tommy's WR pace. 195 miles from Steve in a bitingly cold wind sees him above his upper schedule but shrinking his buffer slightly. William is now over 10,000 miles behind the WR pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay61.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 04, 2015, 06:31:11 am
Day 62: Similar to the previous couple of days, 215 miles for Kurt and 194 for Steve. Kurt is gradually increasing the length of his riding days with both riders now finishing at around 8:30pm.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay62.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 05, 2015, 07:34:40 am
Day 63: Another similar day from Kurt and Steve with a 20 mile difference between their day's totals. Daylight hours are lengthening and weather is getting warmer for both riders so we might expect distances to increase soon.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay63.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: andyoxon on March 05, 2015, 10:48:22 am
I note that the slope of Steve's actual mileage is about intersect with the upper schedule line, which is on an upward trend, does this mean Steve may be upping his average daily miles total very soon?   (sorry if this has been said already).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 05, 2015, 10:50:25 am
That was my predication in this morning's post, but who knows?

Well, perhaps Steve does as he had a bit of an early start today and has done more than 90 miles before 11am.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on March 05, 2015, 10:53:58 am
He needs to cover more ground now and he needs to get a bit quicker on the road. There is limited oportunity for him to reduce time off the bike.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on March 05, 2015, 12:10:43 pm
this challenge is like going up the never ending down escalator - you keep running up all day and every time you stop or go to sleep it takes you back down, no mercy, no pause, 205 miles next day, again and again. you need to be walking up quite fast just to stay in the same place..

massive respect to both riders!

GO STEVE!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: andyoxon on March 05, 2015, 12:58:30 pm
That was my predication in this morning's post, but who knows?

Well, perhaps Steve does as he had a bit of an early start today and has done more than 90 miles before 11am.

I looked at the graph but not what you'd written...  :)  :-\  yes, ramping up can't be too far away now... 

GO Steve!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 06, 2015, 06:30:36 am
Day 64: Steve makes an early start and pulls a 217 mile day towards the WR pace. Kurt heads to the north of Florida with 203 miles. Another day of no riding from William.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay64.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 07, 2015, 07:05:50 am
Day 65: Another 220+ mile day for Kurt heading west in northern Florida brings him closer to WR pace. Steve's 196 mile day in Essex keeps him a little above his upper schedule. A third consecutive day of no riding for William.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay65.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on March 07, 2015, 07:31:58 am
At this rate, Kurt will pop back above Godwin's average by the end of the month.

It's difficult to tell, but is Steve's recent trend above or below the pace/gradient of his pessimistic schedule?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ham on March 07, 2015, 07:34:53 am
Easy to see on the whole graph - http://gicentre.org/oytt/

The optimistic schedule sees him ramping up miles significantly as from around now (which is why that line is moving towards him), the bottom schedule sees him ramping up the miles in about a month .
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 08, 2015, 06:09:51 am
Day 66: Kurt heads west and makes it out of Florida for the first time with another 210+ mile day. Steve gets his kicks on route Essex, joining the Horsepower 200 Audax. Plenty of sun and wind. No-show for William again.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay66.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 09, 2015, 05:56:20 am
Day 67:  Around 200 miles each for Kurt and Steve. Kurt enjoyed Florida's panhandle while Steve took a circuitous route from Essex back to Milton Keynes.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay67.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 10, 2015, 06:11:30 am
Day 68: Kurt makes a dash for the state border and finds himself in Alabama after 214 miles. Steve has a 220 mile wind assisted day to York tailed by an evening of headwind.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay68.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 11, 2015, 06:30:25 am
Day 69: In a reversal of the pattern of the last couple of months, Kurt makes a 195 mile journey through Alabama with 1900m of climbing while Steve's 222 mile return from York to MK sticks to the flatlands with less than 1000m of ascent.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay69.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Polar Bear on March 11, 2015, 07:02:59 am
I love the brief daily descriptions.   They add an exciting frisson to the game.   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on March 11, 2015, 09:43:17 am
I love the brief daily descriptions.   They add an exciting frisson to the game.   :thumbsup:

Referring back to this narrative, and indeed the whole forum will help when the book is written.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: rabbit on March 11, 2015, 02:42:25 pm
Agree about the daily descriptions - I am often too busy to keep track of what's going on throughout the day, but this way I know the current state of play without having to interpret a graph.   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: The French Tandem on March 12, 2015, 03:35:36 pm
Where is Jo? I His daily graph is missing! I hope nothing bad happened to him.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 12, 2015, 04:13:30 pm
So do I.

There is a technical problem with yesterday's Strava uploads for Kurt and William that has prevented me from processing them (unrelated I think to the vehicle transfer being included in Kurt's track). I am looking into it, but have a day job to get out of the way first.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 12, 2015, 10:54:20 pm
Day 70: Steve claims to have a "rest day" closer to home but still manages almost 200 miles. Kurt had a tough day with a Mississippi headwind, problems with one of his GPS, a broken brake cable and a visit from the puncture fairy. His final leg was on home ground back in Arkansas giving him 176 miles for the day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay70.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 13, 2015, 06:15:06 am
Day 71: The fourth day in a row in which Steve has ridden further than Kurt slowly closing the gap between them. Steve rides around 220 miles from MK to Hull in good weather. Kurt faces 170 miles of rain around Little Rock, AR.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay71.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 14, 2015, 01:13:03 pm
Day 72: Another solid 214 miles for Steve heading back from Hull to MK. More rain for Kurt and then GPS problems prevent some of his ride from being uploaded and to cap it all, problems with his light bracket cut short his evening riding. The impact of "only" a recorded 58 mile day on his progress shows how vulnerable both riders are to even a small interruption.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay72.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Basil on March 14, 2015, 01:26:37 pm
Is it time to loose Mr. IronOx from these snapshots.  The images on replies  Day 70 and Day 71 are much better, except you've gone a bit too far and cut Tommy out.

I really enjoy these daily commentaries.   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 14, 2015, 01:43:49 pm
IronOx rarely features in the graphics now (he's in green if he appears at all). The solid grey line is Tommy; the dashed blue line is Kurt's pre-ride published schedule. I've been trying to vary the scale and emphasis of the daily snapshots a bit to keep some interest. And the interactive version allows you to select / deselect the riders as you see fit. Personally I think it is interesting to at least keep William's rides recorded as his total, currently at 1,747 miles, helps to give a sense of scale to the event. This is probably further than most of us have ridden so far, yet he's way way off the bottom of the chart.

Tommy's total by March 14th is still behind Kurt and Steve's by around 3000 miles. The fact that he came from behind to accumulate 75,000 miles which would, at current pace, beat them both shows that it is all still to play for.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/legend.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Von Broad on March 14, 2015, 10:01:39 pm
Fantastic visual Jo, it really gives an overall feel as to how the whole thing is unfolding. Looking at Steve's chart, there's that very slight downwards trend at the beginning of March, where there was a feeling of needing to up the miles, "will he, won't he" etc..and then we see, sure enough, a gentle lift to maintain the average. And now he's still just hovering above the top tier of his projections. Thanks for doing it all.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 15, 2015, 07:24:44 am
Day 73: Steve rides 107 miles into a biting NE wind and then another 107 back home again keeping up his recent March average of over 210 miles per day. Kurt has another shorter day to make way for other domestic business. It looks like we are seeing a shift in the trend of both riders as riding conditions change.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay73.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 15, 2015, 07:38:40 am
Looking at the movement patterns of the riders (Steve red, Kurt blue, William Green; horizontal axis 24 hours with 6am, midday and 6pm marked; days stacked vertically with most recent at the bottom), it is clear Steve is getting faster. His rides have been increasing in length but, with a couple of notable exceptions, he is still spending about the same time on the bike.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay73.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay73.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/williamMovementDay73.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Bobby on March 15, 2015, 08:13:22 am
Thanks Jo, this daily analysis is fantastic  :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Colin. on March 15, 2015, 08:33:39 am
I agree with Can't Climb, Thanks Jo for your hard work. It makes it so easy to see what is happening  :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on March 15, 2015, 08:59:44 am
It is indeed excellent. Thanks for your hard work, jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on March 15, 2015, 09:57:27 am
^^ +1  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: ianrauk on March 15, 2015, 11:05:14 am
Yes, much appreciated Jo and it's also much appreciated over at the other place.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: clarion on March 15, 2015, 12:27:16 pm
Echoing that, thanks Jo.  We're very fortunate to have you adding colour to the attempt.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on March 15, 2015, 03:18:21 pm
Two votes of gratitude from me.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on March 15, 2015, 03:34:43 pm
Moi aussi! :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Basil on March 15, 2015, 03:54:05 pm
Me three, six or nine, or whatever it is.   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on March 15, 2015, 03:59:22 pm
Me three, six or nine, or whatever it is.   :thumbsup:

Get the right number and you win a tea-shaped towel. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: clarion on March 15, 2015, 04:04:02 pm
Me three, six or nine, or whatever it is.   :thumbsup:
Quote from: Jimi Hendrix
If six turned out to be nine/I don't mind
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Graeme on March 15, 2015, 04:53:52 pm
This is simply the best thread to find out what is going on in summary terms. Big, big thank you jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Basil on March 15, 2015, 05:20:39 pm
Me three, six or nine, or whatever it is.   :thumbsup:
Quote from: Jimi Hendrix
If six turned out to be nine/I don't mind

 :D.  :thumbsup:


Not Shirley Ellis, then?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Deano on March 15, 2015, 05:24:15 pm
Aye, I check it everyday for a look at what the guys have done. Cheers, jo :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: drgannet on March 15, 2015, 05:26:23 pm
Day 72: Another solid 214 miles for Steve heading back from Hull to MK. More rain for Kurt and then GPS problems prevent some of his ride from being uploaded and to cap it all, problems with his light bracket cut short his evening riding. The impact of "only" a recorded 58 mile day on his progress shows how vulnerable both riders are to even a small interruption.


Jo - do you 'correct' the Strava data to match the official HAMR spreadsheet, or just work with the original Strava track logs?

Echoing other posts, I am enjoying your daily updates.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Sea of vapours on March 15, 2015, 06:05:32 pm
Another vote of thanks for the excellent visualisations, Jo. The first thing I check in the morning is the GI Centre page, followed by the Spot tracker.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Chris S on March 15, 2015, 06:29:35 pm
Top work Jo  :thumbsup:.

Dammit - Kurt's Day 73 shows just what a couple of interrupted days can do. This is such a relentless challenge!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: JonBuoy on March 15, 2015, 07:10:24 pm
Sort of.

Another way of looking at it is that totally blowing a day at this stage of the game means significantly less than 1 mile extra per day for the rest of the year.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on March 15, 2015, 07:19:27 pm
Sort of.

Another way of looking at it is that totally blowing a day at this stage of the game means significantly less than 1 mile extra per day for the rest of the year.
Very true.

that's the beauty of long distance riding; you don't have to sweat the small stuff (like p***tures). I've yet to ride an Audax where I could take a whole day off the bike, but I know Steve has taken several off mid-perm!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 15, 2015, 08:41:47 pm
Jo - do you 'correct' the Strava data to match the official HAMR spreadsheet, or just work with the original Strava track logs?

I normally use the Strava data directly. My code will detect and account for segments where the track has been paused between transfers and also flash warnings if there appears to be an unfeasibly fast segment (as occurred on the day Kurt forgot to switch the device off during a transfer). I periodically check my results against the official record and have on a couple of occasions changed my distance figures to match the official ones (e.g. the day that a short 10km track was excluded from Kurt's official record for some unknown reason). For Steve, I also add a small correction factor to the distance to account for the anonymisation of his home location added by Strava.


And thanks for the kind words everyone  :-[ Much appreciated.
 
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 16, 2015, 05:53:18 am
Day 74: Kurt is back on form clocking 222 miles in balmier temperatures and dryer conditions in Little Rock. Steve takes a  206 mile return trip from MK to King's Lynn.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay74.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 17, 2015, 06:29:38 am
Day 75: Another fenland trip for Steve under grey skies and a cold wind allows him to accumulate a further 218 miles. Kurt is back in his rhythm riding for 210 miles from Little Rock edging back in the direction of WR pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay75.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on March 17, 2015, 06:45:45 am
Superb riding by these two. Superb graphs and summaries, thanks again Jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on March 17, 2015, 07:50:32 am
Just a thought but there has been chatter both on here and on Strava about relative heart rates v speed. How easy would it be to plot Av. Hr v Av. Speed as a scatter plot and add a best fit line to show any trend?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on March 17, 2015, 08:11:36 am
(http://www.woodfordrecycling.co.uk/news/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/fly-tip.jpg)

Another Fenland tip, yesterday

(http://legslarry.org.uk/BikeStull/coat_48.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on March 17, 2015, 09:17:35 am
Bzzzt... Deviation. The road is lower than the field, and there's a hedge. That's not Fenland. In fact, I'm sure I recognise it, so it must be Essex.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Vince on March 17, 2015, 09:30:15 am
But perhaps you should tell Blodwyn Pig where it is.

Thanks for the graphics and commentary Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on March 17, 2015, 10:18:10 am
The outfit from whom I borrowed the photo have bases in Bedford, Peterborough, Cambridge, St Ives and Ramsey.  Pretty damn' fenny.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: aoxomoxoa on March 17, 2015, 10:47:30 am
Fenny peculiar, or fenny ha ha?  ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: HTFB on March 17, 2015, 11:59:17 am
A fenny ha-ha is a dyke.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 18, 2015, 06:07:30 am
Day 76: Kurt heads back SE towards Mississippi and returns to his previous form with 211 miles for the day. Steve takes a few diversions to Marsh Gibbon on his ride up to Derby making it a double century.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay76.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 19, 2015, 06:44:17 am
Day 77: Kurt, nursing a nasty insect sting to his eye, joins the Natchez Trace for a scenic 213 miles to Jackson Mississippi. Steve has his shortest day yet comprising a rolling 142 miles and early finish from Derby back to MK.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay77.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on March 19, 2015, 06:57:46 am
Yet another occasion where a lighter than usual day for one of the contenders highlights how relentless and intimidating this challenge is.  Take your foot off the gas and your progress visibly stalls.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Exit Stage Left on March 19, 2015, 07:11:41 am
I just see a compression of the vertical and horizontal scales, over-dramatising minor blips.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on March 19, 2015, 07:18:01 am
Yeah, you're probs right. That's also likely to be a story over the year.  These apparently dramatic drop offs will be barely perceptible in the context of the full 12 months.  A bit like the daily wiggle smoothed out.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 19, 2015, 07:30:17 am
Possibly. While its certainly true that our current day-by-day analysis is 1/365th of the big picture, it remains the case that it is much easier to lose significant distance than it is to gain it. Both Kurt's recent shorter days and Steve's single day yesterday are visible in the full year picture. It shows how unrelenting is the pressure on both riders.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay77FullYear.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Frank9755 on March 19, 2015, 08:09:43 am
'The secret to riding time trials well is not to ride fast but to not ride slow'

Graeme Obree said something along those lines in his book.  I think the impact of the short days on both riders' shows it applies to this event as much as to a 10 mile chase up a dual carriageway. 

Steve's 'short' day yesterday wiped out the impact of all the long days he had ridden in the last fortnight, taking him back to the -1100 contour line.  Kurt's couple of short days put him further behind the average rate than he had ever been. 

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on March 19, 2015, 08:58:46 am
Possibly. While its certainly true that our current day-by-day analysis is 1/365th of the big picture, it remains the case that it is much easier to lose significant distance than it is to gain it. Both Kurt's recent shorter days and Steve's single day yesterday are visible in the full year picture. It shows how unrelenting is the pressure on both riders.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay77FullYear.png)

The Tommy Godwin line also clearly shows this as it is obvious where he too his one day off in the year.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Exit Stage Left on March 19, 2015, 03:53:22 pm
It's interesting to think of this feedback as part of a complex control system.
These graphs are a key indicator. I wonder if an emphasis on keeping the plots smooth is in conflict with a sustainable approach. Kurt's got an IT background, so a cybernetic view might appeal to him. That might make a good title for an article, 'The ride of the cyber-men'.
Publicity is the other obvious feedback path, hopefully generating some funds for Kurt.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 19, 2015, 09:28:33 pm
If you have six minutes to spare, here's an animation of Steve and Kurt's progress so far (both to the same scale).

https://vimeo.com/122685784 (https://vimeo.com/122685784)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on March 19, 2015, 09:41:25 pm
Very good! I enjoyed that.

You do get a good idea of their respective speeds.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Deano on March 19, 2015, 09:58:24 pm
That's wonderful!

(it reminded me of the time-lapse video of nuclear explosions, I don't know if that was deliberate...)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on March 19, 2015, 10:09:52 pm
For no readily apparent reason I don't even see jo's link but pasting the url into a new tab works fine ???  Chrome under both Win 8.1 and iOS 8.something.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: ianrauk on March 19, 2015, 10:26:22 pm
I can't see anything either..
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Deano on March 19, 2015, 10:27:43 pm
Try this link (https://vimeo.com/122685784)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mcshroom on March 19, 2015, 10:28:07 pm
Chrome blocking 'unsafe scripts' on an https page. Click the little shield icon in the address bar and chose 'load unsafe script' and it should appear. It does for me (Chrome, Windows 8.1)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: ianrauk on March 19, 2015, 10:31:10 pm
Aha.. cheers, that works... :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Sergeant Pluck on March 19, 2015, 11:38:45 pm
That’s fantastic, jo, thanks for posting!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on March 20, 2015, 01:14:18 am
Link now shows up on the fondleslab ???
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 20, 2015, 05:37:32 am
Day 78: More Natchez Trace for Kurt taking him down to Baton Rouge Louisiana and slowly towards the magic WR line. One puncture, some rain and a trashing of the 'bent's rear wheel when on the bike rack adds some variety to his 210 mile day. Steve takes a 202 mile route from MK to Cambridge via King's Lynn to keep him hovering around his upper schedule.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay78.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on March 20, 2015, 07:10:59 am
If you have six minutes to spare, here's an animation of Steve and Kurt's progress so far (both to the same scale).

https://vimeo.com/122685784 (https://vimeo.com/122685784)

This is really good. It gives a real idea of just what these two have acheived so far. The full year version will be about an hour long.
Available to hire or buy from an online shop near you 1st Jan 2016!!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Sio2111 on March 20, 2015, 09:00:19 am
If you have six minutes to spare, here's an animation of Steve and Kurt's progress so far (both to the same scale).

https://vimeo.com/122685784 (https://vimeo.com/122685784)

This is mesmerising and really does give a sense of their different strategies. Nice work Jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on March 20, 2015, 09:51:29 am
Great video, jo. 
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 21, 2015, 05:56:15 am
Day 79: Kurt goes on a 222 mile tour of Louisiana towards New Orleans crossing the 14,000 miles mark. As the moon crosses the sun, Steve crosses his 15,000 mile total on his fenland tour back to MK.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay79.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 22, 2015, 07:17:00 am
Day 80: Steady progress from both Kurt and Steve, clocking up 221 and 215 miles respectively. Kurt does some beach loops NE of New Orleans while Steve follows a cold northerly wind from MK down to Dorset.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay80.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on March 22, 2015, 07:59:03 am
Just a thought, but will you be amending the OYTT chart to show our antipodean colleague once he starts?
Also I can't remember who created the marvellous tracker app but will this also be amended to show the new guy? (I would suggest removing Tin Boy).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 23, 2015, 06:25:07 am
Yes, I'll add Miles' progress once he starts. I'll also continue recording William's rides while he remains officially part of the HAM'R.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 23, 2015, 06:34:56 am
Day 81: Both Steve and Kurt each ride around one 'Godwin' of 206 miles. Kurt heading along the coast to Alabama, Steve returning home from Dorset. One more week left of a scheduled pace of 215 miles per day before things ramp up yet again.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay81.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on March 23, 2015, 10:34:50 am
AFAIK, Oz road distances are posted in km. Is it in the rules Miles will have to report in Statute miles?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: NeilH on March 23, 2015, 10:58:02 am
AFAIK, Oz road distances are posted in km. Is it in the rules Miles will have to report in Statute miles?

Rule 15:Daily mileages shall be recorded to the nearest tenth or rounded down to the nearest mile

In practice, the participants record GPS data and post it publicly within 24 hours (rule 7),  and the UCMA will take the distance that Strava calculates from the GPS points, in miles and tenths.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 24, 2015, 06:46:14 am
Day 82: A day of longer rides - Kurt heads through Pensacola for 235 miles of riding back in Florida; Steve pedals some familiar roads between MK and King's Lynn in a 220 mile circuit.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay82.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 25, 2015, 06:25:13 am
Day 83: Kurt has a 211 mile "recovery ride" out of Florida into Mississippi, this time away from the coast to avoid traffic. Steve has fun visiting Marsh Gibbon 12 times during his 214 mile day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay83.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 26, 2015, 07:22:01 am
Day 84: Another 210 miles each for Kurt and Steve keep them both on schedule. Kurt heads north, in and out of Louisiana. Steve takes a trip south down to Portsmouth.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay84.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Bobby on March 26, 2015, 07:55:30 am
Thanks again Jo  :thumbsup:

Looking at this I'm struck again by the impact of Kurts two short days and in general by the shear relentlessness of it.  I simply cannot comprehend that Steve plans to increase his mileage again shortly...

This visualisation helps keep it all in perspective, I fear I have come to accept the idea of 200mile back to back days as something close to normal - which it clearly is not!  I guess they have both been doing the equivalent of non stop back to back LELs.

Mind = blown



Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Frank9755 on March 26, 2015, 10:19:38 am
In miles it is the equivalent but in terrain and in effort it is not - or at least it shouldn't be!

Being free to choose their own routes, they can stick to flat, smooth roads where they get assistance from traffic and, in Kurt's case, from tailwinds most of the time.  It makes a massive difference - ask any time triallist!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on March 26, 2015, 02:20:10 pm
It has taken Steve over a week to recover from his "short" day of 142 miles. Whilst he is doing "only" 210 miles a day, he can't afford another one of those. Meanwhile, Kurt still hasn't recovered the miles lost after his technical and inland revenue issues.

How Tommy managed his Summer schedule (1st May onwards) I will never comprehend.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 27, 2015, 08:45:38 pm

Due to Kurt's late submission for the 26th and the fact I'm about to ride a wet 'n' wild Dean, there will be a temporary interruption to our broadcast. Normal service will be resumed on Sunday

.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mcshroom on March 27, 2015, 09:24:42 pm
(http://www.honeybadgerco.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/f3-770x433.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Basil on March 27, 2015, 10:02:42 pm
POTTERS WHEEL BBC Interlude Film 1950-60s: https://youtu.be/jUzGF401vLc
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: NeilH on March 27, 2015, 11:26:55 pm
Hope that you have a gppd Dean, Jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on March 28, 2015, 01:17:58 am
(http://www.honeybadgerco.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/f3-770x433.jpg)

Somebody on this forum must have sufficiently l33t f0t05h0p 5k1llz to put a gibbon in the middle of that ^^^^.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on March 28, 2015, 09:48:55 am
Riggers will, but it will be smoking a pipe.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on March 28, 2015, 09:51:40 am
Alas Riggers is off to FOREIGN climes.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ham on March 28, 2015, 10:39:07 am
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-BhDBmSOur7c/VRanrmsieAI/AAAAAAAAtCc/I454qLkJKXY/s800/BBCHD_testcard_big.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: wajcgac on March 28, 2015, 12:06:37 pm
^^^

Updated for the 21st century as well  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Oaky on March 28, 2015, 01:04:33 pm
The expression on that Gibbon's face reminds me of "The Scream" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scream).

I suppose that makes it a Funky Munch-y.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on March 29, 2015, 08:29:30 am
Yellow card for that one, Oaky. 10 days in the sin bin for you!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 29, 2015, 06:24:02 pm
Day 85: A shorter day in difficult weather for Steve at 180 miles sees him dipping into his 'scheduled zone'. Kurt puts in an impressive 219 miles by riding along the Trace from Natchez to Jackson and back again.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay85.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 29, 2015, 06:24:29 pm
Day 86: Steve rides a huge 244 mile loop through the flatlands of eastern England to bring his distance close to upper schedule. Kurt's loop of Louisiana from Natchez adds another consistent 211 mile day to his total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay86.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 29, 2015, 06:24:49 pm
Day 87: Kurt finds gold riding an incredible 246 miles from Natchez to El Dorado. Steve battles with the fiercest storms of the year so far with 188 miles of very strong headwind to Taunton and his latest finish to date.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay87.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jochta on March 31, 2015, 05:05:58 pm
How many days of non-riding will it take for Steve's line to intercept Tommy's line? By eye I reckon it'll be around Day 115. About three weeks?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 31, 2015, 09:44:58 pm
Day 88: Kurt heads north to Little Rock AR for a respectable 212 miles that continue to move him closer to Tommy's WR pace.

After a day of struggling into a strong south westerly headwind, today was to be payback time for Steve as he planned to ride NE from Taunton with the wind. However, at 8:10am, after about 26 miles, a moped rider, alleged to be drunk, ran into Steve, breaking his ankle. Over the next couple of hours, he managed to ride a further mile or so before being forced to retire. Taken to the hospital, two ankle fractures were identified and his ankle set in plaster pending a possible operation.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay88.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 31, 2015, 09:53:35 pm
Day 89: Another 213 miles of riding from Kurt in Arkansas continues his consistent trajectory towards Tommy Godwin's WR pace of 206 miles per day. Despite Steve's forced retirement pending hospital tests on his ankle he remains 2,328 miles ahead of Tommy's distance on this day. He is due to intercept Tommy's distance on 12th April.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay89.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 01, 2015, 06:33:29 am
Day 90: Yet another 210+ mile day for Kurt as he rides from Little Rock in some challenging weather at times. He takes the Strava monthly record from Bruce Berkeley clocking up 10,255km (6,372 miles) in March. Steve awaiting an operation on his ankle remains in good spirits.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay90.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 02, 2015, 06:29:00 am
Day 91: More consistency from Kurt with 211 home miles around Little Rock bringing him close to his average pace before his couple of low milage days in March. He his now positioned to overtake Steve's absolute pre-crash total during the next day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay91.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wascally Weasel on April 02, 2015, 01:10:18 pm
It's great that you're still doing this Jo but that downward dotted line is heartbreakingly sad.  :'(
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on April 02, 2015, 01:52:36 pm
Next year, there will be a line for Kurt, another for Miles and a new line for Steven Abraham.
Then, the cheering will start.
 ;)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on April 02, 2015, 05:59:01 pm
It's great that you're still doing this Jo but that downward dotted line is heartbreakingly sad.  :'(
Agreed (on both counts).

It might be nice - purely in my opinion - to just terminate his line, perhaps with a jolly bed/crutches icon.

(of course this would be a reversible move!)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 02, 2015, 06:50:16 pm
I thought about stopping the line on the 29th as I agree it is tough to see that downward trend. But in the end I thought I'd keep it going for a while, at least until we know a little more about Steve's prognosis / plans and to show that even with what has happened, he still remains a long way ahead of Tommy's March/April distance.

But if there is a strong feeling here, I can remove it.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on April 02, 2015, 07:19:18 pm
I'd say leave it. I have visions of Steve suddenly appearing on a hand-cycle. I saw one once around the Hanningfields in Essex and its rider was remarkably quick. He reminded me of that Winter Olympic sport - luge? - when the contestants descent a bobsleigh run on something akin to a tea tray.

It might have been one of these:-

(http://www.davisbikeclub.org/club_news/newsletters/changing-gears-2010/october-2010-changing-gears/recumbent_carbon_handcycle.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on April 02, 2015, 07:35:11 pm
i reckon one leg would still be stronger than two hands. the guy that did pbp with one leg (i've ridden with him at the start) finished in around 70h. but to his "advantage" he didn't have to carry the weight of one non-functional leg - 15kg?..
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on April 02, 2015, 08:00:40 pm
Team has considered a hand cycle -- but only very briefly - Steve's upperbody strength is not good enough to make it  a viable proposition.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ivo on April 02, 2015, 08:14:42 pm
i reckon one leg would still be stronger than two hands. the guy that did pbp with one leg (i've ridden with him at the start) finished in around 70h. but to his "advantage" he didn't have to carry the weight of one non-functional leg - 15kg?..

My old audax teacher from the Union Audax Tournai did a couple of PBP's in the vedette category, while having only one leg. He also did a nice amount of French diagonales.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Kim on April 02, 2015, 08:40:36 pm
i reckon one leg would still be stronger than two hands. the guy that did pbp with one leg (i've ridden with him at the start) finished in around 70h. but to his "advantage" he didn't have to carry the weight of one non-functional leg - 15kg?..

My limited experience tells me that:  a) Given sufficient knee pain and nothing to cause me to have to stop halfway, I can in fact cycle up Ditchling Beacon with one leg.   b) A couple of laps of the flat bit of Victoria Square was all I could manage on a handcycle, and my shoulders ached for days.

Extrapolating to teethgrinder ability levels left as an exercise for the reader...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jacamo on April 02, 2015, 10:44:51 pm
Team has considered a hand cycle -- but only very briefly - Steve's upperbody strength is not good enough to make it  a viable proposition.

Maybe one of these? He could still use his good leg and just use his arms to assist. Maybe remove the crank arm on the right side and install a small platform in its place?

(http://www.designboom.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/varibike-designboom02.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on April 03, 2015, 06:40:21 am
Assembled by the young chap who usually stocks shelves in ASDA.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 03, 2015, 06:43:30 am
Day 92: Kurt's 220 mile trip from Little Rock to the Missouri state border takes his annual total to 16,933 miles - now the highest for all riders as Steve recuperates after his ankle operation.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay92.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: T42 on April 03, 2015, 07:10:59 am
I'd definitely leave the trace, unless Steve asks otherwise.  If nothing else it might be presented to the beak to show the enormity of what happened.

WRT cycling with one leg, lots have done it even when they weren't one-legged cyclists.  A chum did 150 km that way after his left crank broke.  But Steve would not only have a leg that couldn't drive, he'd have to cater for the dead weight of the cast.  I had a hell of a time getting on the turbo when I had my ankle in a fibreglass boot, and in plaster it was impossible.  OTOH I hadn't had plate & screws, just immobilization for a cracked talus bone.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on April 03, 2015, 08:17:06 am
I think in fairness to jo's hard work,  we should probably restrict our speculation to one of the more relevant threads ...
such as "Speculation" https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=89464.0 !
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 06, 2015, 05:23:12 pm
Day 93: A 221 mile ride from Little Rock heading south east for Kurt takes is average distance for the year over 204 miles per day. Steve continues to recover from his ankle operation and makes plans for the rest of the year.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay93.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 06, 2015, 05:24:01 pm
Day 94: A 200 mile trip SW from Little Rock today for Kurt with more climbing than usual.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay94.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 06, 2015, 06:34:01 pm
Day 95: A comparative rest day for Kurt with some vehicle transfers takes him from the Texas state border back to Little Rock for a day's total of 112 miles. With Steve out of action and an average of over 203 miles per day so far, he can afford some of these easier days.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay95.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 07, 2015, 06:40:43 am
Day 96: Kurt rides a 220 mile loop from Little Rock sending his trajectory back towards Tommy's annual pace. Steve and Kurt have now ridden for 87 full days each.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay96.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 08, 2015, 06:21:49 am
Day 97: Kurt back to 215+ miles per day after his recent shorter day. Another loop from Little Rock sees him heading upwards again as we approach international HAM'R day. While Steve is still recovering, the bells of Marsh Gibbon ring out a Quarter Peal in celebration of his achievements in his first 88 days..

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay97.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 09, 2015, 06:24:46 am
Day 98: Another 216 miles of riding around Little Rock from Kurt raises his average to 203.6 miles per day. Despite 10 days off the bike following his ankle injury, Steve has still spent more than half of 2015 moving on his bike.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay98.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 10, 2015, 05:56:47 am
Day 99: A show of strength from Kurt two days before Miles Smith is due to enter the OYTT. A long fast day sees him ride 240 miles from Little Rock NE into Missouri with an average heartbeat of only 86bpm. Steve waits for his new adapted trike to be delivered and set up.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay99.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 11, 2015, 08:50:53 pm
Day 100: Kurt makes a slightly more direct return journey from Missouri back to Little Rock, clocking up 215 miles and taking his daily average to 204.2 miles. Steve awaits the arrival of his new trike.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay100.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 12, 2015, 07:14:07 am
Day 101: International HAM'R Day. Miles Smith joins the OYTT challenge with 125 miles ridden before breakfast, but with a possible 250 more pending some technical difficulties with the GPS. Kurt rides for 207 miles around Little Rock to keep his daily mileage high. Steve, still waiting for his adapted trike to arrive, remains just above Tommy's April 11th total despite nearly two weeks off the bike.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay101.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 13, 2015, 06:31:08 am
Day 102: Yet another solid 211 miles from Kurt around Little Rock, AR. After Miles' very impressive 274 mile debut, his second day is already looking familiar as he rides back and forth between Melbourne and Sorrento along the coastal road clocking up a further 203 miles. Steve is forced to wait for a few days more before his trike arrives.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay102.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 14, 2015, 06:22:45 am
Day 103: Wet weather and an early crash cuts Kurt's ride a little shorter than usual at 144 miles. Miles continues his back and forth along the coast from Melbourne putting him 78.5 in front of Tommy's average annual pace. Steve still stuck at home awaiting his trike delivery.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay103.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 15, 2015, 05:51:16 am
Day 104: Kurt celebrates the eve of his 52nd birthday with some road rash from yesterday's spill on slippery roads and a slightly shorter day of 177 miles. Miles Smith continues his back and forth along the Victoria coast with 132 miles posted but more in the bag. More waiting for Steve.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay104.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: rabbit on April 15, 2015, 02:41:07 pm
Thank you for continuing with these visualizations Jo, much appreciated  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on April 15, 2015, 06:53:18 pm
With new starters every 4 months, does jo think this is a job for life?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on April 16, 2015, 12:23:09 am
This is something that really needs to be automated.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 16, 2015, 10:41:18 pm
Just to add that there is a slight pause in OYTT visualization proceedings while some Real Life occupies my time. Hopefully back to thought for the day by the weekend.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on April 17, 2015, 06:25:11 am
Best wishes Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Marmitegeoff on April 17, 2015, 06:57:12 am
Very Best wishes and THANK YOU.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ham on April 17, 2015, 07:51:27 am
More thanks, in particular it is useful when you have, as the germans might have it, gantzvollstandigkeinfourrummingmessingtzeit, to have a single point of truth to head for to find out the latest.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Pale Rider on April 17, 2015, 10:49:18 am
More thanks from me.

Jo's graph is the best way to follow progress.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Doo on April 17, 2015, 03:01:05 pm
Thankies from me too, I do love your updates  :-*
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on April 17, 2015, 05:21:11 pm
This is something that really needs to be automated.

A Jobot.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 20, 2015, 08:35:32 pm
Day 105: Kurt's birthday ride clocks up a very respectable 212 miles doing loops around Little Rock. Matched by Miles's tour de Mornington who fits in 217 miles between sleeps. Rumour has it that Steve's new trike will be ready shortly.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay105.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 20, 2015, 08:36:34 pm
Day 106: After an agonising wait, Steve makes his first one-legged recorded ride on his new trike with 80 laps of the Milton Keynes bowl. The scale of the challenge means that even with 50 remarkable miles, he still slips a long way behind Tommy's pace. Disaster for Kurt as he picks up serious digestive problems from a contaminated water bottle. Rest and a saline drip, but he still manages a tentative mile to keep a daily contribution to the challenge.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay106.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 20, 2015, 08:37:13 pm
Day 107: Kurt recovers slowly from his tummy bug with plenty of sleep, a fever, but still 13 miles on the bike for a bit of variety. Steve's left leg takes him to the bowl again for 82 anticlockwise miles. Miles continues his back and forth across the bay with two working legs and a functioning digestive system.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay107.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 20, 2015, 08:37:53 pm
Day 108: A day after being laid low by his stomach bug, Kurt is back up to 101 miles of "recovery" riding. Steve pedals another 83 miles with his heroic left leg. The full year view shows the impact of both their circumstances.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay108.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 20, 2015, 08:38:41 pm
Day 109: Kurt is back already to 202 miles in a day despite still recuperating from the last few days' illness. Steve wanders the roads of Milton Keynes to avoid going stir crazy in the MK bowl. Miles heads north from Melbourne for an impressive 236 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay109.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on April 20, 2015, 08:49:35 pm
loving this thread both for the graphs and comments - an absolute gem on this forum. thank you jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mcshroom on April 20, 2015, 08:52:46 pm
Indeed. Thanks jo :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on April 20, 2015, 10:19:02 pm
Zigzag expresses it perfectly. Again very big thanks to Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 21, 2015, 06:42:36 am
Day 110: Kurt hits the 20,000 milestone as he cycles SE to the Mississippi border. Steve is back in the bowl for 90 miles of round 'n' round. A transfer back to Melbourne for Miles leaves him with a shorter day riding north and south between Melbourne and Wandong.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay110.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on April 21, 2015, 10:17:22 am
I don't know about "Thanks" - but if you can decipher and make sense of some of Miles miles then you deserve a medal!!

Keep up the good work   :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on April 21, 2015, 03:42:23 pm
20,000 miles! Good grief, that is some riding - and Steve's not far behind, despite all his woes. The accomplishments of all of these riders are astonishing, as is jo's amazing commentary and visualisation. Thanks again, jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 22, 2015, 06:36:10 am
Day 111: Still recovering after his illness, Kurt heads south along the Natchez Trace down to Louisiana for 150 miles. Steve rides to the bowl via a circular route before many more circles for 90 miles. Miles is back doing the tour de bay from Melbourne.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay111.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on April 22, 2015, 08:16:16 pm
I find this a brilliant visual of what is going on. THX so much for your time and effort
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Porkins on April 22, 2015, 08:41:16 pm
I wish I understood it. Diagrams have never been my strong point. The spatial  bit of IQ tests...eek.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jsabine on April 22, 2015, 10:04:01 pm
I'm one of those who really groks this representation - I think it's superbly clear in both showing the achievement so far, and the magnitude of what remains. I just wish I had the ability to conceive of such a way of visualising numbers. Jo, thanks from me too.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wascally Weasel on April 23, 2015, 09:56:40 am
I'm loving all the data visualisation, thanks Jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 23, 2015, 12:37:43 pm
Day 112: Kurt is back on form with 205 miles heading east to the Mississippi gulf coast. Steve's left leg takes him around MK for some more bowl action for 72 miles. Miles continues to get familiar with the bay road.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay112.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 24, 2015, 07:15:38 am
Day 113: Steve continues to build up his left leg around the Milton Keynes Bowl with a 91 mile day. Miles follows his familiar route along the Port Phillip Bay with little sleep in 24 hours. Kurt also rides loops, this time for 222 miles in southern Mississippi.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay113.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 24, 2015, 03:27:35 pm
Here are the latest movement charts for the four riders. Local time of day shown left to right, with day of the year vertically. In order: Steve=red, William=green, Kurt=blue, Miles=purple.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay113.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/williamMovementDay113.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay113.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/milesMovementDay113.png)

Miles appears to be an opportunistic rather than regular sleeper.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 25, 2015, 07:01:43 am
Day 114: Miles and Kurt both put in long days with 228 and 225 miles respectively. Steve foregoes the bowl for a change, instead riding the roads of MK for 71 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay114.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 26, 2015, 07:42:33 am
Day 115: Kurt, chased by bad weather, heads to northern Mississippi for another 220 mile day. Steve avoids the Bowl and rides 64 miles of the roads around MK. Nothing uploaded for Miles yet, but the SPOT tracker suggests he headed north out of Melbourne.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay115.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Pmathews on April 26, 2015, 12:19:03 pm
Miles rode from Melbourne to Chiltern in NE Victoria today and is training it back to Melb (hopefully having reset the Garmin ;-).

Data will be uploaded in morning.

PeterM
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 27, 2015, 06:10:20 am
Day 116: Kurt rides the Natchez Trace again making this the fourth consecutive day of around 220 miles. Steve rides a shorter than usual 27 miles but with some good news about his plaster cast. He's now over 6,000 miles down on Tommy's WR pace, making a 2015 record unlikely but not completely out of bounds. Nothing yet posted from Miles for the last two days.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay116.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on April 27, 2015, 03:21:23 pm
Nice edit  ;D
Worth pointing out that while Steve is indeed 6000 miles down on WR pace, Tommy Godwin was 4000 miles down on Tommy Godwin's WR pace at this point.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 27, 2015, 03:37:00 pm
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself posted

"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".

That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.

But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit  ;D)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on April 27, 2015, 04:37:10 pm
(http://media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/53/7c/30/537c306bb74c7597ba89910e943abd0e.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Oaky on April 27, 2015, 05:05:54 pm
(http://media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/53/7c/30/537c306bb74c7597ba89910e943abd0e.jpg)

<cheap dig>Is the bottom one a SusTrans route?</cheap dig>
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on April 27, 2015, 07:49:47 pm
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself posted

"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".

That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.

But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit  ;D)
Does anyone have a link to this?

(FB being FB,  i've seen the piccie of him without the cast, but not this quote  ::-)   )
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 27, 2015, 07:56:05 pm
Matt, I don't do FB either, but it's easy to find. Either google "Steve Abraham Facebook" or try https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015

Then scroll down a couple of entries and you'll see it.   :-*
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jefmcg on April 27, 2015, 09:48:21 pm
First comment here

https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015/posts/1574522779463019
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on April 27, 2015, 10:34:01 pm
Define 6000 miles down before making any conclusions.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 28, 2015, 07:43:04 am
Day 117: Kurt heads back to Little Rock for a 209 mile day. Steve, now without his plaster cast, flexes his right leg on the trike around the Bowl for 112 miles. Miles after travelling north is back to riding the bay. No log was uploaded for the 26th April which means he has some catching up to do to maintain his officially recorded pace close to Tommy's WR.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay117.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on April 28, 2015, 07:54:43 am
I'm impressed you disentangled the spaghetti of yesterday's rides. I found Strava confused and bitty.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: teethgrinder on April 28, 2015, 08:32:17 pm
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself posted

"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".

That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.

But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit  ;D)

I meant 6000 miles down on my 82000 mile schedule. 82000-6000=76000, so 1000 miles more than Tommy Godwin. And as I also said, I was closer to the 87000 mile schedule before my broken ankle.
I've done my sums and although it may not go exactly to the original plan I reckon it could work.


The trike seems to be helping with recovery. The doctor told me that I won't be able to put my weight on it until about the middle of May. I think I could do that now but won't try until I get the all clear. The only discomfort I feel seems to be because I need some physiotherapy, which is why I thiink I feel better for using the trike.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Halloween on April 28, 2015, 08:43:00 pm
Way to go TG, sir! I presume the team is looking at getting you some physio when the time is right?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on April 28, 2015, 08:48:37 pm
I would hope that TG has been paying for physio for several weeks.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 30, 2015, 07:33:12 am
Day 118: Miles continues his excursions up and down the bay for 200 miles. Kurt heads south from Little Rock to Louisiana for 197 miles. Steve, with an impressive dedication rides around the bowl for 101 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay118.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 30, 2015, 08:09:26 am
Day 119: Business as usual for all riders in the OYTT. 100 miles of MK Bowl, Port Phillip Bay and 220 miles of Louisiana to the Natchez Trace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay119.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: rabbit on April 30, 2015, 10:48:56 am
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself posted

"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".

That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.

But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit  ;D)

I meant 6000 miles down on my 82000 mile schedule. 82000-6000=76000, so 1000 miles more than Tommy Godwin. And as I also said, I was closer to the 87000 mile schedule before my broken ankle.
I've done my sums and although it may not go exactly to the original plan I reckon it could work.


The trike seems to be helping with recovery. The doctor told me that I won't be able to put my weight on it until about the middle of May. I think I could do that now but won't try until I get the all clear. The only discomfort I feel seems to be because I need some physiotherapy, which is why I thiink I feel better for using the trike.

You are just so inspirational Steve - there is no doubt that 99% of people would have gone 'meh, I'm giving up now' and yet you've gone 'NOT BEATEN YET'   ;D

Continued good luck wishes from me!  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 01, 2015, 07:26:15 am
Day 120: Four months into the OYTT.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay120.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: notlobgp14 on May 01, 2015, 10:01:33 am
jo

Could you plot a predicted curve for Steve getting to 76,000 in 365 days?  Just to see what the task in front of Steve now looks like, showing daily mileages used on the curve.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 01, 2015, 10:16:45 am
That curve is implicit in the chart - just join the end of the red line to the triangular black arrow on the right hand side. The daily figure required to do so is

(75065 - total milage to date) / days left in year = 56977 miles in 245 days = 232.6 miles per day.

How Steve wishes or is able to spread that out over the rest of the year is up to him. If he were to publish a revised schedule (but I see no reason for him to do so), I would add it to the chart.

I will look to add that target daily rate to the numbers in the green section of the OYTT page (http://gicentre.org/oytt)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on May 01, 2015, 12:17:30 pm
That curve is implicit in the chart - just join the end of the red line to the triangular black arrow on the right hand side. The daily figure required to do so is

(75065 - total milage to date) / days left in year = 56977 miles in 245 days = 232.6 miles per day.

How Steve wishes or is able to spread that out over the rest of the year is up to him. If he were to publish a revised schedule (but I see no reason for him to do so), I would add it to the chart.

I will look to add that target daily rate to the numbers in the green section of the OYTT page (http://gicentre.org/oytt)
Steve doesn't do X per day but Steve has mentioned getting back on his lower schedule after May to target 76000 for the year.  So would it be meaningful to move or duplicate Steve's target red band?  At Jan 1 his lower schedule would have achieved Godwin+7800 from the look of your plot, if you move the red band down so that the lower line ends at Godwin+1000 we can watch Steve's progress line tend towards, and hopefully not drop through, the revised red band.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on May 01, 2015, 04:21:55 pm
If I read the chart correctly, if Steve were to move onto his optimistic line right now he would end up around 6,000 miles ahead of the record. 

Clearly he isn't going to up to those kind of mileages immediately, but it does give an idea of the buffer that he has to use up.  On another thread, I said Steve won't beat Tommy's mark in 2015.  Looking at jo's projections, it actually looks achievable.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 01, 2015, 07:51:25 pm
For the moment I'm not going to add a revised schedule to the chart because we don't know how or if Steve would progress to a schedule required to make the record (e.g. start ramping up now? keep it at 100 mpd now then put in super-long days in July? keep the summer schedule through the winter?).

I have added a bit more info to the table at the bottom of the OYTT page though. It now includes Tommy's average miles per day as of the current point in the year. I've also added the minimum target miles per day required by all riders just to reach 75,065 miles by the end of their year. That should make it a little clearer what they would need to achieve as the year progresses.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 03, 2015, 07:08:32 am
Day 121: 229 miles of Mississippi coastal loops on the 'bent for Kurt bring him close to Miles's pace. Steve continues to ride the Bowl, this time for his longest one legged day so far of 114 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay121.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 03, 2015, 07:11:57 am
Day 122: Kurt rides 208 miles back to Natchez. Steve does the Bowl again, this time for 101 miles. Miles takes the train north to Albury and begins the ride back to Melbourne.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay122.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 03, 2015, 06:46:25 pm
Probably nothing new to most who have been following this thread, but I've posted a blog article on some of the design principles behind these charts:

http://www.gicentre.net/blog/2015/5/3/visualizing-a-record-too-hard-to-break
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: ianrauk on May 03, 2015, 08:52:40 pm
Thanks Jo. A very interesting read
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 04, 2015, 05:27:20 am
Day 123: Kurt's 222 mile ride north through Mississippi puts him closer to Tommy's WR pace than Miles for the first time. Steve ventures out from the Bowl for 90 miles, twice taking in Marsh Gibbon.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay123.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 05, 2015, 06:42:00 am
Day 124: Kurt's has a slightly shorter day of 158 miles heading back towards Little Rock while Steve rides his longest post-crash day yet of 117 miles round the Bowl. Miles continue up and down the bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay124.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: The French Tandem on May 05, 2015, 08:10:57 am
Probably nothing new to most who have been following this thread, but I've posted a blog article on some of the design principles behind these charts:

http://www.gicentre.net/blog/2015/5/3/visualizing-a-record-too-hard-to-break

Jo, you are the best!! I reckon Steve will certainly have to write a book after the end of this amazing adventure, and Jo's work will be a major element of this book!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 06, 2015, 11:31:06 pm
Day 125: Another 220+ mile day for Kurt, this time back home in Little Rock. This edges him a little further ahead of Miles's 160 miles. Steve does 96 miles of revolutions around the MK Bowl as he continues to build back the strength in his broken ankle.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay125.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 07, 2015, 06:19:56 am
Day 126: Another long day for Kurt around Little Rock, this time for 234 miles. Miles rides from Warrnambool to Melbourne for 184 miles continuing his recent trend in daily distance. Steve rides the bowl for 110 miles keeping his challenge alive.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay126.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 09, 2015, 07:03:58 am
Day 127: Steve fits in a hospital visit between two trips round the bowl for 84 miles of riding. Kurt piles on 226 miles in Little Rock. Miles heads east to Stratford for a 160 mile day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay127.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 09, 2015, 07:41:39 am
Day 128: Stave makes his first trike trip away from home since the crash, heading east for 115 miles in preparation for Saturday's 400km audax. Kurt has one of his longer days clocking up an impressive 242 miles on the roads of Little Rock. Miles makes another trip east to Stratford before heading out along the bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay128.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 10, 2015, 11:47:15 pm
Day 129: Steve completes the first half of the 400km Asparagus and Strawberries audax through Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk to give him 186 miles on the trike for the day (and first half of the night). Kurt continues on familiar roads near Little Rock  for 216 while Miles does the bay for a day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay129.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 11, 2015, 06:27:05 am
Day 130: A long day in Little Rock for Kurt at 251 miles. Steve completes his 400k Audax then rides back home from Manningtree giving him 206 miles for the day. Miles rides east to Sale before doing some more bay for a total of 158 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay130.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 12, 2015, 09:08:12 am
Day 131: 202 miles of Little Rock riding for Kurt and 210 miles for Miles. Steve has a late start to the day with just a short 19 mile loop to the west of MK.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay131.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 14, 2015, 09:33:28 am
Day 132: A problem with Kurt's GPS log means he was unable to register his ride for the day. Miles rides with the wind east to Bairnsdale for 200 miles before doing some more bay. Steve, back on two wheels, rides 101 miles of Bucks roads including some Marsh Gibbon visits.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay132.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 14, 2015, 09:33:46 am
Day 133: Kurt, Steve and Miles continue to ride the roads from their home towns logging 233, 150 and 130 miles respectively. Looking at the year's progress it is clear how tough this record attempt is. All riders (including Tommy Godwin at this stage) have been slipping from the WR pace. The consistency required to beat it will be the main challenge for all riders in the coming months.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay133.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on May 14, 2015, 06:52:55 pm
Has anyone mentioned this?

Miles’ local climate is 6 months staggered from GB, so he is effectively starting in Autumn.
The ‘target’ plots on the chart are based on a British year with winter for the first three months and then spring, giving the cyclists a chance to regain lost distance and then put on some through summer and then stabilizing in autumn up to the end of the year.

Miles’ ‘Target’ lines should be slightly upwards, dipping and then rising sharply around Christmas. His ‘Actual’ is going the wrong way.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on May 14, 2015, 07:39:26 pm
Has anyone mentioned this?

Miles’ local climate is 6 months staggered from GB, so he is effectively starting in Autumn.
The ‘target’ plots on the chart are based on a British year with winter for the first three months and then spring, giving the cyclists a chance to regain lost distance and then put on some through summer and then stabilizing in autumn up to the end of the year.

Miles’ ‘Target’ lines should be slightly upwards, dipping and then rising sharply around Christmas. His ‘Actual’ is going the wrong way.
That's a good observation. But I disagree with your conclusions.

For one thing, the target lines are wholy dependent on the riders' individual strategies. Hence setting the x-axis to a perfect "even" pace was the only logical choice.
It's also flawed to describe any climate as just being "England + n months". Too many other variables (e.g. Florida and parts of Oz will be too hot for 200-mile days in peak local summer).
Then there is Miles' crazy sleep patterns!

All opinion of course - time will shine light on all this ...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 15, 2015, 06:22:07 am
Day 134: Very wet weather for Steve who, despite the rain, manages 101 miles on his Raleigh. Kurt keeps up his pace with 205 Little Rock miles. Miles follows recent patterns by riding east with the wind then returning by train for a ride along part of the bay for a 162 mile day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay134.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jefmcg on May 15, 2015, 10:32:52 am
Has anyone mentioned this?

Miles’ local climate is 6 months staggered from GB, so he is effectively starting in Autumn.
The ‘target’ plots on the chart are based on a British year with winter for the first three months and then spring, giving the cyclists a chance to regain lost distance and then put on some through summer and then stabilizing in autumn up to the end of the year.

Miles’ ‘Target’ lines should be slightly upwards, dipping and then rising sharply around Christmas. His ‘Actual’ is going the wrong way.
That's a good observation. But I disagree with your conclusions.

For one thing, the target lines are wholy dependent on the riders' individual strategies. Hence setting the x-axis to a perfect "even" pace was the only logical choice.
It's also flawed to describe any climate as just being "England + n months". Too many other variables (e.g. Florida and parts of Oz will be too hot for 200-mile days in peak local summer).
Then there is Miles' crazy sleep patterns!

All opinion of course - time will shine light on all this ...

Melbourne's weather is pretty mild all year round.  It would not be surprising for it to be warmer in Melbourne June/July/August than London.   

Here's the observations from Portsea (at the far end of his regular ride).   Only 8 days a year above 30, in the depths of winter it's still averaging 7-13C.   

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/cvg/av?p_stn_num=086097&p_prim_element_index=0&p_comp_element_index=0&redraw=null&p_display_type=full_statistics_table&normals_years=1961-1990&tablesizebutt=normal

Melbourne itself would be a bit warmer than this, but if I sticks to the bay he'll be getting close to these conditions.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 16, 2015, 07:56:04 am
Day 135: A similar pattern to previous days from all three riders, Kurt: 233 Little Rock miles, Steve: 114 miles into Essex and Miles: 167 miles east out of Melbourne. Steve edges closer to the 20,000 mile mark, placing him about a month behind Kurt and two and half weeks behind Tommy (which is about the same length of time Steve was completely off the bike).

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay135.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 17, 2015, 08:56:18 am
Day 136: A familiar pattern for Kurt and Miles - up and down the roads of Little Rock and Port Phillip Bay. Kurt is constantly riding further each day, so Miles will have to change his strategy if he has any chance of the record. Steve meanwhile completed the first half of the Flatlanders 600 audax helpers' ride from Essex up to Goole.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay136.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on May 17, 2015, 09:35:13 am
No news about Kurt's lost data from the other day?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: wajcgac on May 17, 2015, 02:37:06 pm
I think it was the ride on the 12th May he had the issue with. It's now up on Strava so the issue must have been resolved.

https://www.strava.com/activities/304280607 (https://www.strava.com/activities/304280607)

Seems to be another short transfer on this activity 15th May (78km in of about 6.3km) although Garmin Connect shows correct distance

https://www.strava.com/activities/305310843/analysis/2603/287 (https://www.strava.com/activities/305310843/analysis/2603/2874)

https://connect.garmin.com/modern/activity/775453932 (https://connect.garmin.com/modern/activity/775453932)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 17, 2015, 04:24:31 pm
Thanks for pointing out the recent addition of the 12th May. I've updated the charts accordingly.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on May 17, 2015, 04:44:50 pm
The latest graph confirms what I've suspected for a while; with my dubious red/green vision, Kurt and Miles are exactly the same colour :(

Could we annex that nice yellow from the hapless IronOx?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Climberruss on May 17, 2015, 08:54:29 pm
Iron - who?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 18, 2015, 06:03:20 am
Day 137: Steve passes 20,000 miles on his north-south Flatlanders 600 trial run. Kurt repeats his Little Rock routine with a break for some heavy rain. Miles is up and down the bay a few times for 237 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay137.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on May 18, 2015, 10:04:32 am
Nothing showing on the UMCA for Saturday (201 miles), then spotted the first half of his A&S last weekend (186 miles) is missing too.  Anyone know the story?  Doesn't seem at all like Steve to miss an upload cutoff.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 19, 2015, 05:48:24 am
Day 138: Kurt is nothing if not consistent, clocking up 241 miles back and forth along the Arkansas river. Miles does the same along the bay for 230 miles. Steve rides 106 miles back home from Essex.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay138.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 20, 2015, 08:10:51 pm
Day 139: As the end of May approaches and Kurt, Steve and Miles clock up 228, 205 and 140 miles respectively, we begin the most challenging period of the OYTT. The first of the previous records, starting with Billie Fleming's 1938 total of 29,604 miles beckons for Kurt. Tommy was beginning to increase his daily milage beyond his average of 206 miles per day. Something Steve will have to do too if he is to have  chance beating Tommy in 2015. Days will get longer, sleep will become rarer.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay139.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 21, 2015, 08:07:45 am
Day 140: More Arkansas river riding for Kurt (187 miles), Port Phillip Bay for Miles (196) and a couple of Gibbons for Steve (101).

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay140.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 21, 2015, 08:11:09 am
Movement patterns for Steve (red), Kurt (blue) and Miles (purple) as of 20th May:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay140.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay140.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/milesMovementDay140.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hatler on May 21, 2015, 09:02:07 am
Looking at the 'Overall' column, the difference in consistency between Steve (up to the ankle break) & Kurt as opposed to Miles is really striking.

Don't know what we can/should deduce from that.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on May 21, 2015, 09:06:28 am
Jo, thanks again for all this! So wonderfully concise, clear and elegant. Hors categorie!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 21, 2015, 09:42:13 am
Looking at the 'Overall' column, the difference in consistency between Steve (up to the ankle break) & Kurt as opposed to Miles is really striking.

Don't know what we can/should deduce from that.

Well, to quote Graeme Obree – time trials are won not by going fast but by not going slow.

At the scale of a year-long event, I'd say the same applies to time on the bike.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 22, 2015, 08:09:07 am
Day 141: A shorter day for Kurt and a longer one for Steve give them both 151 miles towards their annual totals. Miles does 118 along the bay as he succumbs to a chest infection.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay141.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 23, 2015, 08:01:53 am
Day 142: 237 miles along his familiar Arkansas river trails for Kurt. Steve rides a 161 mile route from MK to Essex in preparation for the weekend's Flatlands 600. Miles manages 11 miles so he and his bike can be made good.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay142.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 24, 2015, 11:06:24 pm
Day 143: Steve does the first two thirds of his 600 PBP qualifier, the Flatlands, in a repeat of the previous weekend's effort. Kurt continues his steady progress along the side of the Arkansas river for 235 miles. Miles does 120 along the bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay143.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 25, 2015, 07:25:13 am
Day 144: Steve rides a further 154 miles back to Dunmow to complete the weekend's audax – the two day total of 423 miles. Kurt does another 210 miles of the Arkansas river and Miles manages 119 miles of the bay. William nowhere to be seen.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay144.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 26, 2015, 06:27:43 am
Day 145: Kurt dodges severe thunderstorms to complete 232 miles of the Arkansas river trail and surroundings. Steve takes a 201 mile route home from Dunmow while Miles clocks up 119 miles along the bay. And William pushes out 6 miles - the first in three weeks.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay145.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 27, 2015, 06:43:27 am
Day 146: Miles' respiratory problems take a turn for the worse – diagnosed at hospital with a partially collapsed lung. He still managed 32 miles though. Kurt continues his now usual trip up and down the Arkansas river trail (202 miles). Steve does a 151 mile multi-Gibbon day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay146.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 28, 2015, 07:12:15 am
Day 147: No riding for Miles as he is treated for his collapsed lung. Kurt increases his daily distance to 250 miles along his usual route. Steve does a 216 mile loop to the fens similar to that before the collision.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay147.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 29, 2015, 06:47:04 am
Day 148: While Miles is still off with lung problems, Kurt does another 233 miles along his favourite river trails and Steve takes a 221 mile circumnavigatory trip around Cambridge.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay148.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 30, 2015, 06:31:13 am
Day 149: Miles continues his off-the-bike recovery. Kurt bangs out 213 miles along new roads north of Little Rock while Steve does another 165 mile circumnavigation of Cambridge.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay149.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on May 30, 2015, 09:49:50 pm
By eye, it looks like Steve is at the point where his pessimistic schedule will not see him reach Tommy's benchmark.  If I'm right, it means each day he does less than this the further he moves towards needing to achieve his optimistic schedule.  I suspect he can still do it, if he remains injury free, but it will be Herculean.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 31, 2015, 08:39:11 am
Day 150: Following his lung problems, Miles announces his retirement from his first OYTT challenge. He will restart on the 18th June. Meanwhile Kurt and Steve put in 210 and 218 miles respectively. By this time in 1939, Tommy had found sponsorship from Raleigh and a professional manager. His daily mile total started increasing significantly.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay150.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on May 31, 2015, 11:11:04 am
By eye, it looks like Steve is at the point where his pessimistic schedule will not see him reach Tommy's benchmark.
Your eye serves you well, his lower schedule now falls just short and he's not up to that schedule yet so slipping further daily.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 01, 2015, 06:39:34 am
Day 151: Local flooding forces Kurt to accumulate 242 miles by riding the same strip of the Arkansas river road 46 times (23x each way). He's now less than a week away from overtaking the women's OYTT record. Steve does a 228 mile Fenland loop taking his annual average daily distance back above 150 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay151.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 02, 2015, 06:16:28 am
Day 152: Flooding continues to keep Kurt up and down a small segment of the roads for 230 miles. Steve has a relatively easy 140 mile day with a couple of Marsh Gibbon visits thrown in for good measure.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay152.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 03, 2015, 06:28:10 am
Day 153: 233 more miles of repeats along the same 5 mile stretch of road for Kurt. He's now about a day away from matching Billie Fleming's record. Steve puts in a long day to Lowestoft adding 252 miles to his total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay153.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 04, 2015, 07:25:22 am
Day 154: Repeated trips along the five mile strip of the Arkansas river trail gives Kurt 245 miles for the day and takes him beyond Billie Fleming's 1938 record. Steve returns from Lowestoft for a 212 mile total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay154.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 05, 2015, 06:50:02 am
Day 155: Kurt does more Arkansas river repeats but then escapes for a bit of hill climbing to Wye giving him 215 miles for the day. Steve has a hospital visit sandwiched between 191 miles of local riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay155.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 06, 2015, 06:53:44 am
Day 156: Kurt reaches the 30,000 milestone with more hamster wheel riding by the river. Steve heads north for 206 miles to Alfreton in readiness for the weekend's Nine Counties 600km audax.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay156.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 07, 2015, 10:45:56 am
Day 157: Kurt starts the day racing in the Tour de Rock before returning to the back and forth on the river trail for a day's total of 222 miles. Steve rides the first part of the Nine Counties audax through Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Rutland, Cambridgeshire and Lincolnshire (have I missed any?) for a tidy 233 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay157.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 08, 2015, 06:27:55 am
Day 158: Steve completes his 600km Audax with a few extra diversions added to give him a 205 mile day. Kurt continues on his 'hamster wheel' on the river trail with a small hilly diversion at the start of the day for a bit of variety. With another 228 miles for the day, he's now within a week of hitting Tommy's WR annual pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay158.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 09, 2015, 06:24:58 am
Day 159: Steve makes is return trip from Alfreton to MK, taking the long way round via the Humber to give him 250 miles for the day. He appears to have 'bottomed out' and begins the slog back to WR pace. He'll need to ride at least 246 miles every day to do this by the end of the 2015. Kurt continues to push the hamster wheel for 209 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay159.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mcshroom on June 09, 2015, 11:31:55 am
Quote
He appears to have 'bottomed out' and begins the slog back to WR pace

Lets hope so :D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 10, 2015, 06:25:13 am
Day 160: 216 more hamster wheel miles for Kurt. Steve does a shorter than usual loop towards Cambridge for 153 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay160.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 11, 2015, 06:44:57 am
Day 161: After 222 more miles on the Arkansas hamster wheel, Kurt is now closer to Tommy's WR pace than he has been since the first few days of the challenge. Steve does a 205 mile loop through Cambridgeshire and Essex. It looks increasingly unlikely that he would be able to beat Tommy's total in 2015, now requiring an average of over 246 miles per day for the remains of the year.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay161.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 12, 2015, 06:41:49 am
Day 162: As the temperature rises in Little Rock, Kurt starts riding northward. GPS problems leave him with only 75 miles logged despite a 213 mile ride. Steve puts in a long day with an early start and late finish giving him 280 miles for his East Anglian loop. This takes his annual total above 25,000 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay162.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 13, 2015, 06:36:31 am
Day 163: Chased by the heat Kurt continues his great migration north, 231 miles through Missouri, crossing the Mississippi into Illinois. Steve sticks to Buckinghamshire loops for 182 miles and 4 Marsh Gibbons.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay163.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on June 14, 2015, 12:31:12 am
Comparing the riders' statistics on the official spreadsheet is interesting. Despite Steve's 229 miles today, he has fallen a further 10 miles or so behind Tommy. However, the past 20 days have seen him reduce his mph deficit from -2.58 to -2.23. Of course, the further Steve goes, the less beneficial effect each better-than-average day will have on his overall mph.

In raw mileage terms, Steve has another 50136 miles to do to beat Tommy and 201 days in which to do it. 250 mpd. Piece of piss.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 14, 2015, 06:42:44 am
Day 164: Kurt continues to head north towards the great lakes. A long day takes him to Ottawa, IL and 246 miles closer to the record. Steve does a fenland loop via King's Lynn for 229 miles. He has averaged the WR pace of 206 miles per day over the last 23 days but would need to increase this considerably in order to catch up from his current 8,266 mile deficit.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay164.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 15, 2015, 06:41:20 am
Day 165: Kurt pedals 203 miles further north into Wisconsin where temperatures are a pleasant 27 degrees. Steve does another fenland loop via King' Lynn for 207 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay165.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 16, 2015, 06:37:06 am
Day 166: Kurt rides into northern Wisconsin leaving the heat behind but now dealing with "rain in every direction". He still manages 204 miles though. Steve matches his previous day's riding exactly at 207 miles with another fenland trip, this time via Ely. He declares publicly that he's still aiming for Godwin's record with planned increases in daily milage throughout July and August.


(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay166.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 17, 2015, 06:54:57 am
Day 167: Steve increases his average speed and distance covered with a 257 mile loop via King's Lynn. He now shows a clear upward trend during June. Kurt heads to Manitowoc on Lake Michigan for 231 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay167.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: andyoxon on June 17, 2015, 04:07:03 pm
Just wondering that if Steve keeps to the required ~247mpd, whether he will cross the X-axis/zero/WR pace of the OYTT chart around mid Sept-October?   i.e. what the projected shape of Steve's curve will be...   
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hatler on June 17, 2015, 04:26:06 pm
If he sticks to the required daily rate of approx 247 he will touch the x axis at 11.59 pm on Dec 31st
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 18, 2015, 06:33:28 am
Day 168: Kurt rides 216 miles into the Wisconsin prairies. Another wide loop around Cambridge for Steve gives him 190 miles for the day. It looks like he is interleaving shorter and longer rides as he builds up his daily distances.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay168.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 19, 2015, 06:05:28 am
Day 169: Miles reenters the challenge with a couple of Port Phillip bay trips for a 184 mile midwinter start. Lots of riding for Steve who extends his King's Lynn loop via Sleaford to give him 261 miles for the day. Kurt does 221 miles of loops from Plover, Wisconsin.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay169.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hatler on June 19, 2015, 07:37:29 am
Strewth !
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 20, 2015, 01:23:41 pm
Day 170: For day two of his OYTT reboot, Miles does a single there-and-back-again trip along Port Phillip Bay for 131 miles. Kurt heads SW from Plover ending in the hills for a 211 mile day. Steve loops up to Spalding adding 200 miles to his annual total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay170.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 21, 2015, 07:40:19 am
Day 171: Kurt rides 223 windy and wet miles east to Lake Michigan. Steve does a 250 mile tour of Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire. Miles does the bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay171.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 22, 2015, 06:36:12 am
Day 172: Over the longest northern hemisphere day when Tommy Godwin rode an incredible 361 miles in 1939, the 2015 riders each rode comparative 'recovery' distances: 201 miles for Kurt, 199 for Steve and 131 for Miles. A reminder what a challenge this is.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay172.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 23, 2015, 11:23:32 pm
Day 173: UMCA have retrospectively recognised Kurt's missing 138 miles from June 11, which means he's officially been above Tommy's pace for the last week. He continues with another 222 miles up the west shore of Lake Michigan. Steve has a premature stop south of Boston for a shorter than usual 135 miles. Meanwhile in Melbourne, Miles does another bay trip for 141 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay173.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tomh on June 24, 2015, 10:27:01 am
The total you have for Kurt (33,802) seems to be about 60 miles higher than the official total which I estimate to be 33,739.7 at the end of the 22nd Jun (31,811.9 on 13th June from latest pdf, adding 1927.7 logged via Garmin since)

I think this dates back to the 12th March, which is when the official record for Kurt started using the garmin connect data instead of the strava data - there seems to be about 0.5 miles discrepancy between the two each day (garmin always on the low side).  Using the 21st June as an example 201.1 was posted to (strava (https://www.strava.com/activities/330418888)), but 200.6 was posted on (garmin connect (https://connect.garmin.com/modern/activity/811326812/share/0?lang=en))

It's not much each day, but it's going to be ~160 miles by the end of the challenge
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: michaelo on June 24, 2015, 03:12:52 pm
Isn't that discrepancy due to Garmin not counting distance moved when the device is paused, whereas Strava fills the gap & adds the mileage (which is what happened when he had that early vehicle transfer)?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on June 24, 2015, 03:44:11 pm
Isn't that discrepancy due to Garmin not counting distance moved when the device is paused, whereas Strava fills the gap & adds the mileage (which is what happened when he had that early vehicle transfer)?

Garmin connect uses additional information such as a speed/cadence sensor in the tcx file format. I had exactly the same issue with my ride on Sunday, which was about 2km shorter in Strava than claimed from wheel rotations.

Some of that difference is down to calibration (I used a notional figure of 2105mm for 700x25C in my example). But also, GPS distances will tend to be marginally shorter due to corner cutting in the track.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 24, 2015, 11:45:46 pm
Day 174: Kurt makes good progress with 237 miles up and down the west shore taking him to within a few days of Marcel Planes' 1911 record. Steve back on form with a 219 mile tip back from Boston to MK. Miles does 101 miles of the bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay174.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 25, 2015, 10:15:01 pm
Day 175: Steve does a large East Anglian loop of 256 miles. Miles does a double bay for 224 miles. Kurt yet to post his track for the day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay175.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 26, 2015, 07:42:18 am
Day 176: 253 miles riding in northern Wisconsin on the lake shore for Kurt puts him within a day of Marcel Planes' 1911 world record distance. Steve fits in a hospital checkup into a 202 mile loop via March. Miles does 148 miles of bay riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay176.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 27, 2015, 06:28:18 pm
Day 177: Kurt heads northwest for 225 miles passing Marcel Planes' 1911 record distance of 34,666 miles. Steve puts in his longest day yet riding for an impressive 289 miles before midnight. Miles too does a long day in the bay for a 252 mile total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay177.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 29, 2015, 06:44:17 am
Day 178: After the previous long day Steve does 207 miles of Cambridgeshire fens and Miles 145 miles of the bay road. Kurt yet to post his route.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay178.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 29, 2015, 06:47:11 am
Day 179: A stiff wind makes the going tough for Steve on his King's Lynn loop of 201 miles. Miles does just 93 miles of the bay road. Noting posted by Kurt over the weekend.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay179.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 30, 2015, 09:17:42 am
Day 180: Kurt rides 219 miles of central Wisconsin. Steve knocks out a 251 mile Fenland loop and Miles does 191 miles of his favourite bay road.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay180.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 02, 2015, 12:19:06 am
Day 181: Kurt Etch-a-Sketches his way around the Wisconsin Rapids area for 221 miles. Steve has a late start but rides through much of the night during the UK's hottest couple of days so far. He clocks up 178 miles by midnight. Miles rides the bay several times to give him and impressive 253 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay181.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 02, 2015, 07:30:04 am
Day 182: At the half way point of the OYTT, Steve puts in some big miles by completing his overnight tour of East Anglia, gaining 306 miles during the 24 hours of 1st July. This puts him within a day of Billie Fleming's 1938 world record. After a 231 mile day from Kurt, he is now within a day of Arthur Humbles' 1932 record. Miles does 199 miles of bay riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay182.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 02, 2015, 10:40:10 am
Movement records for the three riders (bars represent time when moving; 24 hours per row; 1st January top row, 1st July bottom row; Steve red, Kurt blue; Miles green).

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay182.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay182.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/milesMovementDay182.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 03, 2015, 07:59:45 am
Day 183: Steve does 202 miles to pass Billie Fleming's year record set in 1938 (29,604 miles). Kurt does 218 miles to pass Arthur Humbles' 1932 total of 36,007 miles. Miles heads out east from Melbourne for an overnighter, completing 108 miles by midnight.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay183.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 04, 2015, 08:52:15 am
Day 184: Kurt heads east back to Lake Michigan for an oh so consistent 223 miles. Steve heads north to the Wash on another overnighter giving him 201 miles for the first 24 hours. Miles returns to the bay with a 208 mile total. During June and July it was Tommy in 1939 who was making the most rapid progress.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay184.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 05, 2015, 11:56:13 am
Day 185: Steve returns home from the Wash on a circuitous 237 mile route to pass 30,000 miles in 2015. Kurt does a few back and forths along the lake shore for another 222 miles. Miles does 98 miles of the bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay185.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 06, 2015, 06:46:21 am
Day 186: Kurt rides 250 miles north to the Michigan border. Steve does a large loop of Cambridge for a 184 mile total. Miles does the bay a couple of times for 206 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay186.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 08, 2015, 12:05:31 am
Day 187: Steve does a loopy tour around the Cambridgeshire fens for a 251 mile total. Miles makes a 175 mile trip from Albury, north of Melbourne. Nothing posted by Kurt so far.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay187.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 08, 2015, 06:11:42 am
Day 188: After the previous day in the north of Wisconsin, Kurt heads south for 235 miles. An early start for Steve sees him making a King's Lynn loop for 218 miles. Miles has problems with his GPS upload but covers approximately 128 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay188.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 09, 2015, 06:43:17 am
Day 189: Kurt rides 232 miles north to central Wisconsin. Another fend land loop from Steve gives him a 231 mile total. Miles is back to the bay for 132 miles of riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay189.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 10, 2015, 07:56:54 am
Day 190: Miles, Kurt and Steve all ride about 220 miles along familiar routes. Tommy's July 1939 distances continued to outpace them all.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay190.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 11, 2015, 10:01:08 am
Day 191: Another 219 East Anglian miles from Steve. Kurt does 221 miles from Manitowoc. 85 bay miles from Miles. Tommy was making good progress with a 301 mile ride on the 10th July 1939.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay191.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 12, 2015, 06:17:30 pm
Day 192: Kurt follows the west shore north for 243 miles taking his daily average for the first 6 months to over 208 miles per day. Steve does a MK-Spalding-King's Lynn-MK loop for 204 miles. Miles rides from north of Melbourne for 119 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay192.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Basil on July 12, 2015, 06:53:23 pm
Did IronOx not pop down the shops or anything?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 13, 2015, 07:02:20 am
Day 193: Kurt sticks to roads in the Baileys Harbor region, has a couple of punctures and GPS problems but still manages 210 miles. Steve does a wide loop of Cambridge with 178 miles for the day. Miles heads east from Melbourne for 108 miles. He is now as far behind Tommy's WR pace as Steve was following his crash.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay193.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 14, 2015, 08:27:31 am
Day 194: Kurt manages 201 miles despite the day being top and tailed by heavy storms. Steve does a familiar loop via Spalding with a late end to the day giving him 209 miles and an annual total of 32,000. Miles puts in a long day of which 196 miles fall within the 24 hours of the 13th July.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay194.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: DaveE128 on July 14, 2015, 01:20:09 pm
Thanks for all the interesting graphs  :thumbsup:

Do you have a graph anywhere showing how each rider's moving average is changing over time ? I'd be really interested to see that. :)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 15, 2015, 06:22:41 am
I don't yet, but I'll see what I can do.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 15, 2015, 06:30:55 am
Day 195: Kurt rides for 273 miles, making it his longest day yet in the OYTT. Steve continues his slight easing of daily distance at 204 miles in preparation for a second concurrent attempt in August. Only a few miles logged for Miles following is previous long day, but his pace over his first 27 days matches that set by Tommy in January 1939.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay195.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: toontra on July 15, 2015, 08:50:49 am
Following yesterday's announcement of Steve's concurrent start in August, how are you feeling about another 8 months of these summaries, Jo?  ;)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Nuncio on July 15, 2015, 09:21:18 am
... and the complexity of a concurrent attempt. I suppose we'll just have SA1 and SA2?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on July 15, 2015, 01:11:21 pm
SA1 - Saturn Apollo 1, unmanned, launched 27 October 1961. First flight of Saturn 1.

SA2 - also unmanned, launched 25th April 1962.

Pictures here - http://stellar-views.com/images/Apollo_62-SA2-4.jpg and here http://stellar-views.com/images/Saturn_C1_v2.jpg

Sorry. A bit of a space history geek you see :)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 16, 2015, 06:48:34 am
Following yesterday's announcement of Steve's concurrent start in August, how are you feeling about another 8 months of these summaries, Jo?  ;)

I think I may move to weekly updates. I may well be doing that in a week's time anyway when I go on holiday to a largely internet-free zone.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 16, 2015, 06:59:19 am
Day 196: Kurt rides 225 miles along familiar roads. Steve does a 214 mile variant of his fenland loop and Miles heads back down the bay for 136 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay196.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 17, 2015, 02:33:25 pm
Day 197: Kurt sticks largely to the edge of the lake of 213 miles. Steve does a 200 mile loop to the east of MK. Miles back up and down the bay for a 135 mile total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay197.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 18, 2015, 10:30:40 am
Day 198: Kurt does another shoreline based ride for 223 miles. Steve heads NW for 167 miles in advance of the Mersey 24 time trial starting on Saturday. Miles rides north out of Melbourne, and then back again for a 174 mile total. Tommy continued to put in big days with 314 miles on the 17th July 1939.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay198.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 20, 2015, 07:26:09 am
Day 199: Kurt attempts to dodge a storm with a bit of driving but manages to ride 212 miles up to the penisula. Steve completes 167 miles by midnight as part of the Mersey Roads 24 hour TT. Miles back to the bay with a 121 mile ride.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay199.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 20, 2015, 07:29:22 am
Day 200: Strong crosswinds keep Kurt to the shoreline in his 225 mile ride. He reports some breathing problems when riding the recumbent so sticks with the upright. Steve completes his Mersey 24TT with another 154 miles from midnight. Miles does another 130 mile trip along the bayside.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay200.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on July 20, 2015, 02:10:21 pm
Do I read these last 2 days as a total of 321 miles on the 24TT. The weather made it very tough going -- but needing to do 254 miles a day, every day from now on -- these 2 days have cost Steve another 187 miles. In fact I do not recall seeing 2 consecutive days of 250+ -- the 2015 attempt looks to me to be out of reach now.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 20, 2015, 02:41:57 pm
Indeed - 320 miles for the two days, including a 'warm up' at 9:30am. It does bring home how difficult the OYTT is - for many riders, a 250 mile total for 24 hours would be an achievement. Steve has to do more than that every day from now onward if he were to challenge Tommy's or Kurt's total this year.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on July 21, 2015, 12:09:36 am
I think even Steve, with his eternally positive outlook, would have to agree that the 75k 'record' is now out of reach within the original timescale - but the launch of the concurrent attempt inherently recognises that, even if many of us are reluctant to acknowledge the fact. The main issue is now whether or not the 100,000 mile record is achievable by the end of July 2016; I haven't tried to work it out. What do you think, Jo?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 21, 2015, 06:53:53 am
To beat Tommy's 100,000 informal record he needs to average at least 200 mpd. Assuming an attempt starting on 1st Jan 2015, Steve currently needs to average at least 223 mpd from now until 14th May (day 500). Alternatively, if you work backwards and assume he finishes both the OYTT and the 100k on the 30th July 2016, he would need to average at least 217 mpd from now on. This may seem like a higher total than expected for the apparently "easier" 100k challenge, but is because his average over the previous 135 days (500-365), which spans the moped incident period, is about 154 mpd.

There is a bit of uncertainty in the above because we don't know when in August he is attempting the restart, nor what his average will be between now and the restart. But whatever he chooses, this remains a significant challenge.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on July 21, 2015, 08:56:05 am
Yes, I agree. Having just watched Steve give ESL a good listening-to, it seems he's concerned that he's slower than he needs to be and he's not improving - overtired and unable to recover meaningfully. How long does he go on before its time to stop and re-think the whole thing? At the moment, I'm worried that it will drift and just peter out.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on July 21, 2015, 09:39:47 am
The main issue is now whether or not the 100,000 mile record is achievable by the end of July 2016; I haven't tried to work it out. What do you think, Jo?
I'll have a crack at that one if I may.

To get the 100k Steve needs RebootMiles + ExtraMiles >= 100,000
To get the record ExtraMiles must be completed in 500-365 days = 135 days.
Taking the 134 days up to and including 31 July Steve already has 20530.3 and that is with 2 days missing on HAMR and 12 days mileages still to be ridden.
Lets be pessimistic and assume UMCA reject the two late submissions and Steve stays in bed the rest of July.  Therefore ExtraMiles = 20530.3.
To achieve the 100k RebootMiles must therefore be >= 100,000 - 20530.3 = 79,469.7.

He may not go that far in the reboot.  As it stands he needs 75,066 but it looks likely Kurt will move that goalpost and Miles might do too.  Steve's original upper and lower plans were both > 80,000.  Time will tell but I think as things stand it looks likely that if Steve takes the year record he'll take the 100k too.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on July 21, 2015, 09:43:05 am
Elegant, thanks.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 23, 2015, 09:07:48 am
Day 201: Kurt hits 40,000 miles with a 232 mile ride ending in Manitowoc. Steve slows his pace and rides 85 miles back from Cheshire to Lichfield. Miles rides from Albury back to Melbourne for a 201 mile day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay201.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 23, 2015, 09:08:32 am
Day 202: Steve announces a concurrent restart attempt starting on the 8th August, until which time he intends to ease off the long distances. He rides 97 miles from Lichfield back to MK. Kurt sticks to the Lake Michigan shoreline for 223 miles. Miles does a repeat of yesterday from Albury to Melbourne.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay202.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jacamo on July 23, 2015, 03:24:59 pm
Day 202: Steve announces a concurrent restart attempt starting on the 8th August, until which time he intends to ease off the long distances.

I'd like to see him take time off the bike instead of just cutting back on the distance before his restart. He's not going to gain any fitness this way.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 24, 2015, 06:49:34 am
Day203: 220 miles up the shoreline for Kurt keeps him heading steadily away from Tommy Godwin's pace. Steve continues his tapering in advance of his restart with a 127 mile trip to St Ives and back. Miles combines a short trip north with his usual bayside route for 204 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay203.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 24, 2015, 07:14:53 am
Day204: Kurt tours the peninsula with some shoreline repeats for 219 miles. Steve makes the 123 mile return trip to Peterborough. Miles is back to the bay with a 130 mile ride.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay204.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 25, 2015, 09:51:31 am
Day 205: Another 220 Wisconsin miles from Kurt, 125 tapered miles from Steve and small, but perfectly formed 45 from Miles. (Brief report as I'm off on holiday for a week in the land of uncertain wifi.)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay205.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 27, 2015, 01:58:46 pm
Day 206: Kurt rides south from Baileys Harbor for another 226 miles. Steve rides a 138 mile loop through Cambridgeshire while Miles's 139 miles is ridden north of Melbourne. William Pruett makes a guest 40 mile appearance in Texas.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay206.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 27, 2015, 01:59:34 pm
Day 207: Kurt heads inland to Wisconsin Rapids for a day's total of 231 miles. Steve makes the 124 mile return trip to Saffron Walden. Miles rides east of Melbourne, matching Tommy's early progress with a 145 mile day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay207.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 28, 2015, 08:47:20 am
Day 208: Kurt interrupts his daily schedule for chest x-ray following some breathing difficulties. Initial diagnosis is a "hemi-elevated diaphragm" requiring some further exploration from a specialist. Remarkably he still manages to fit in 124 miles of riding in the Wisconsin Rapids area. Steve rides 102 miles to Cambridge and back. Miles does a couple of trips east to Trafalgar, presumably with an assisting wind for a 165 mile total within the 24 hours.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay208.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 29, 2015, 04:51:35 pm
[Edit: To include averages up to 30th July]

Average moving speed of the three riders in 2015. Thin lines are daily averages, thicker lines are weekly moving averages.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/movingAverageJul30.png)

Interesting to see that Steve was actually riding faster than Kurt towards late June. Kurt has been remarkably consistent through the year (the obvious dip was when he had a stomach virus).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Bobby on July 29, 2015, 06:58:31 pm
nice representation Jo  :thumbsup:

Would that format also make a nice representation for "time moving per day"? (not tying to make work, just generally interested in these sort of stats)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 30, 2015, 09:42:35 am
Day 209: Kurt bounces back after his breathing difficulties and x-ray diagnosis with a 232 mile day. Steve continues to build his distance in preparation for his August reboot with a 145 mile loop through Cambridgeshire. Miles heads out east again for a 168 miles of riding. William appears to have woken from hibernation but is currently 39,980 miles behind WR pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay209.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 30, 2015, 09:43:48 am
Day 210: Kurt continues to show the world that he is undaunted by possible health issues by riding 236 miles from central Wisonsin back to Manitowoc. Steve pushes his daily fenland loop a little further to 193 miles. Miles rides east of Melbourne back home for 86 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay210.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on July 30, 2015, 09:48:01 am
Jo - ongoing thanks.

Including thanks for the new beauty yesterday!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 31, 2015, 07:33:04 am
Day 211: Kurt knocks off another 219 miles from central Wisconsin to the lake with a little help from the wind. Steve does exactly one Godwin (205.6 miles) on a trip to Boston and back. Miles takes the train north and rides back to Melbourne for 201 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay211.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on July 31, 2015, 02:14:50 pm
Is this interpretation of Kurt's data correct:

His moving speed has been lower in the 2nd quarter of the attempt - varying between 16-18mph on the thick weekly average line, vs 18-20mph in the first quarter.
But IIRC his daily mileages are creeping up overall - so I assume he is gradually doing longer* days ?


*[but with blips, of course!]
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jacamo on July 31, 2015, 03:05:08 pm
You'll see his speeds come back up in the Fall when he has less hours of daylight.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: michaelo on July 31, 2015, 03:14:29 pm
Is this interpretation of Kurt's data correct:

His moving speed has been lower in the 2nd quarter of the attempt - varying between 16-18mph on the thick weekly average line, vs 18-20mph in the first quarter.
But IIRC his daily mileages are creeping up overall - so I assume he is gradually doing longer* days ?


*[but with blips, of course!]
Wasn't it June when he suffered with severe flooding & was doing laps of a 5 mile circuit somewhere?  That would have dented the average pace.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: billplumtree on July 31, 2015, 08:21:10 pm
Steve does exactly one Godwin (205.6 miles) on a trip to Boston and back.

And jo takes it to another level, with the application of an entirely person- and time-instant- dependent unit, the Godwin.  Knocks the area of Wales, the fridge, and the furlong per fortnight into a cocked hat.  Sheer joy to see such subtle genius in action  :D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 01, 2015, 08:46:41 pm
Daily movement patterns for January-July 2015. As before, each row is a day's riding with darker bars representing movement, lighter bars when not riding. Ordered from top to bottom Jan 1st (Steve and Kurt) / June 1st (Miles)  to July 31st. Penultimate column shows overall proportion of the day moving. Final column shows the average moving speed - thin line the daily average, the thicker line the weekly moving average. Steve in red, Kurt in blue, Miles in green.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay212a.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay212b.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay212a.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay212b.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/milesMovementDay212.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 01, 2015, 08:57:15 pm
Day 212: Kurt does another ride from central Wisconsin to Manitowoc for 226 miles. Steve rides to Spalding and back clocking up 160 miles and breaking Marcel Planes' 1911 world record. Miles does a short trip part way along the bay for 36 miles but keep track with Tommy's winter progress.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay212.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on August 01, 2015, 09:01:15 pm
Daily movement patterns for January-July 2015. As before, each row is a day's riding with darker bars representing movement, lighter bars when not riding. Ordered from top to bottom Jan 1st (Steve and Kurt) / June 1st (Miles)  to July 31st. Penultimate column shows overall proportion of the day moving. Final column shows the average moving speed - thin line the daily average, the thicker line the weekly moving average. Steve in red, Kurt in blue, Miles in green.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay212a.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay212b.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay212a.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay212b.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/milesMovementDay212.png)

Kurt is by far the most consistent, which perhaps reflects his relative success.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 02, 2015, 09:10:52 pm
Day 213: Kurt rides 228 miles south towards Milwaukee. Steve does another trip to St Ives, this time for a 130 mile total. Miles rides 181 miles east from Melbourne to Bairnsdale (oh, and William does 43 miles making his annual total to date 2,428 miles).

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay213.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 03, 2015, 06:55:04 am
Day 214: Kurt knocks out another 232 miles, interrupted briefly by afternoon storms. Steve takes a long loop around Cambridge for 167 miles. Miles does 108 heading east from Melbourne to Traralgon.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay214.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 04, 2015, 06:57:33 am
Day 215: Kurt rides 215 miles east back to Manitowoc including some time on the 'bent suggesting his breathing problems may be lessening. Four days before his restart, Steve does 91 miles to Royston and back. Miles makes a couple of trips east from Melbourne giving him 195 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay215.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 05, 2015, 07:35:05 am
Day 216: A 209 mile loop from Manitowoc from Kurt. Steve loops via Peterborough for 150 miles. Miles does another 107 mile trip out east to Traralgon.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay216.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 06, 2015, 08:04:51 am
Day 217: After a ride of headwinds the previous day, Kurt rides west with the wind for a 211 mile total. Steve does a 164 mile there-and-back to Newmarket. Miles rides east to Yarragon giving him 106 miles for the day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay217.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 07, 2015, 07:38:38 am
Day 218: Kurt sticks to inland Wisconsin for another 212 miles passing 75,065km. Now he just has to do the same in miles. With just one more ride before his reboot, Steve does a 132 mile loop of Cambridgeshire and approaches Arthur Humbles' 1932 record. Miles heads east to Sale for a 149 mile day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay218.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: DaveE128 on August 07, 2015, 11:49:43 am
Thanks for the speed graphs - really interesting! :)

Looks like Miles has been following Godwin's mileage until recently, but has now fallen slightly behind.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 07, 2015, 12:01:53 pm
Yes, if you click on 'full year' at http://gicentre.org/oytt, you can see Miles's dip below Tommy's line emerging as Tommy began to lengthen his rides. At this rate of progress, within a few weeks, this will get to the stage of being an irrecoverable deficit. As I think Steve has found, Tommy's paced summer riding was prodigious and beyond the ability of unpaced riders. While he has had pretty poor winter weather, Miles has yet to demonstrate he has the speed in his legs to make sustained 215+ mile days.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Graeme on August 07, 2015, 06:56:36 pm
Jo - looking at Steve's curve and ignoring the loss due to his broken ankle, would the curve still be within his plan? It looks like it would have been - which ought to be very encouraging for Steve. It almost looks like he'd be level with Kurt - but maybe my eyes deceive me.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 08, 2015, 06:41:54 am
Graeme - I think it's hard to tell as his strategy may well have been different without the broken ankle. If you transpose the bit of the curve from around 11th of May onwards, after which time Steve was doing the sort of miles he did pre-incident, that stays between his upper and lower schedules for just over two months but never quite catches up with Kurt. Since he has been easing off over the last few weeks, this would take him below schedule. Who knows whether the fatigue he talked about around the time of the Mersey 24 would have kicked in anyway.

One thing I think we have seen over the year is that Tommy's paced summer months with daily rides usually over 300 miles is really very very hard to match when there is little scope for recovery days. I think Kurt's steady-Eddy style looks like the best way of achieving the record.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 08, 2015, 06:50:34 am
Day 219: On the final day before his reboot, Steve does another Cambridgeshire loop via St Ives for a 122 mile total. Kurt battles with Wisconsin storms (and loses) giving him a slightly shorter than usual 170 miles. This places him just shy of Ossie Nicholson's 1933 record. Miles heads out east again for 159 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay219.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Pancho on August 08, 2015, 08:16:32 am
Apols if it's been asked and answered already - but how are you going to represent the reboot on your visualisations graphs? Start a new line "TG2" and add his miles to both the extant TG line and the new TG2?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 08, 2015, 08:25:21 am
Yes, pretty much. I'll be adding a line to the table below the chart too so we can keep track of both Steve's 2015 and 2015/16 progress.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 09, 2015, 09:41:49 am
Day 220 / 1: Steve reboots his attempt with a tidy 217 fenland loop via Spalding and King's Lynn. The OYTT chart (http://gicentre.org/oytt) now shows both his attempts - a thicker red line for the reboot, thinner one for the 2015 attempt. The table at the bottom of the page also shows progress of both concurrent attempts.

Kurt heads south from Manitowoc for 231 miles, passing Ossie Nicholson's 1933 record of 43,966 miles. Miles returns to doing a bay trip, this time for 129 miles.

Returning to day one for all challengers, Steve set off later but rode faster than his January 1st ride, but not yet matching Kurt's speed or Tommy's day one distance. But it's a good start, being 11 miles up on the required average distance per day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay220.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Graeme on August 09, 2015, 06:37:47 pm
Graeme - I think it's hard to tell as his strategy may well have been different without the broken ankle. If you transpose the bit of the curve from around 11th of May onwards, after which time Steve was doing the sort of miles he did pre-incident, that stays between his upper and lower schedules for just over two months but never quite catches up with Kurt. Since he has been easing off over the last few weeks, this would take him below schedule. Who knows whether the fatigue he talked about around the time of the Mersey 24 would have kicked in anyway.

One thing I think we have seen over the year is that Tommy's paced summer months with daily rides usually over 300 miles is really very very hard to match when there is little scope for recovery days. I think Kurt's steady-Eddy style looks like the best way of achieving the record.

Thank you Jo. Really appreciate this analysis.

Do you have capacity to perform a similar exercise for PBP next week? I understand the riders are all trackable... :)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 10, 2015, 06:47:58 am
Day 221 / 2: Kurt rides 220 miles from the south of the state back north towards Manitowoc. Steve does 214 miles in a Thetford Forest loop, putting him ahead of his January day two distance and passing Arthur Humbles' 1932 record. Miles does a return trip of the bay for 130 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay221.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 11, 2015, 06:42:26 am
Day 222 / 3: After a day of rain, Kurt heads west out of Manitowoc, this time with a day of headwind for a total of 210 miles. Steve rides north with the wind for 210 miles for a stop overnight in Goole. Miles does a couple of trips north of Melbourne for 170 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay222.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 12, 2015, 06:53:36 am
Day 223 / 4: On the day that Tommy Godwin's average exceeded his eventual 205.6 miles per day, both Steve and Kurt ride south for 228 miles placing them 46 and 811 miles ahead of that average pace respectively. Miles does one bay trip and then heads north out of Melbourne for 158 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay223.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 13, 2015, 09:47:39 am
Day 224 / 5: Kurt fits in a 3 hour stop for an appointment with a pulmonary specialist (diagnosis: some asthma but nothing serious) into a day's riding yet still manages a total of 194 miles. Steve fits in a stop to buy a backup front light in his tour de Cambridgeshire for a day's total of 211 miles. Miles takes the train north and rides back south to Melbourne though the night, 32 miles of which were within the 12th August.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay224.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: rabbit on August 13, 2015, 10:34:59 am
Thanks Jo, for the continuing graphics.  Really appreciate them as a quick way to overview the situation when I've been away from the laptop for a few days  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 14, 2015, 07:53:01 am
Day 225 / 6: Kurt rides east with the wind from Wisconsin Rapids back to the lakeshore for 234 miles with an impressive 18 mph moving average. Steve does a couple of more local loops through Northants and Oxon pushing him a smidgen over one Godwin. Miles rides south from Shepparton to Melbourne after completing similar the previous night giving him 201 miles for the 24 hours of the 13th.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay225.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 15, 2015, 09:14:17 am
Day 226 / 7: One week into his rebooted challenge Steve rides another 208 miles via Spalding to keep him 54 miles ahead of Tommy's WR pace. Kurt sticks to more local roads in the Egg Harbor region also for 208 miles and taking him past one-armed Walter Greaves' record distance of 45,383 miles for the year. Miles rides the bay a couple of times for 129 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay226.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on August 15, 2015, 12:19:16 pm
Shouldn't that be "Miles rides the bay..."?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 16, 2015, 07:37:50 am
^----Yes, thanks. Now corrected (it's these early starts I tell you).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 16, 2015, 07:51:19 am
Day 227 / 8: Steve rides 201 miles south via Shrivenham to Newhaven to catch the ferry to France for his Paris-Brest-Paris ride tomorrow. This places his reboot attempt 49 miles above Tommy's WR pace and 220 miles ahead of his first attempt at this point. Miles rides the bay with an extra diversion thrown in to give him 172 miles for the day. William does a couple of rides today for 75 miles, making this his second highest daily total since he started the challenge.

Nothing posted from Kurt as yet.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay227.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 18, 2015, 09:58:55 am
Day 228 / 9: Kurt rides 226 miles up to and along the lake shoreline. He now requires less than 200 miles per day for the remains of the year in order to beat Tommy's record. Steve disembarks from the ferry at Dieppe, rides down to Paris and starts riding west on the 2015 Paris-Brest-Paris. Hanging around at the start of PBP interrupts his day's riding a little, but he still manages to put in 195 miles before midnight. Miles does another 130 miles of bay riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay228.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 18, 2015, 10:00:06 am
Day 229 / 10: Kurt rides south reversing his previous day's ride but this time facing headwinds and storms. He finishes the day with a 205 mile total. Steve continues his PBP ride making it to Carhaix before sleeping for a pretty continuous 261 miles within the 24 hours of the 17th. Miles sticks to Melbourne for only 14 miles of riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay229.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 19, 2015, 08:41:13 am
Day 230 / 11: Kurt follows a meandering route to match the changing wind direction until rain stopped play, leaving him with a total of 210 miles for the day. After a comparatively long sleep stop by PBP standards, Steve rides from Carhaix to Brest and back then continues east for a sleep stop between Loudeac and Tinteniac for 192 miles. Miles rides 112 miles of the bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay230.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: davebax on August 20, 2015, 09:22:13 pm
Day 228 / 9: Kurt rides 226 miles up to and along the lake shoreline. He now requires less than 200 miles per day for the remains of the year in order to beat Tommy's record.
Is Kurt trying to beat Tommy's total by 31/12/2015 or by 09/01/2016 (365 days after he started)? If the latter, Tommy's 1939 total may be greater than Kurt's 2015 total so Tommy would still hold the record for distance in a calendar year, even if Kurt takes the HAMR record. I think Kurt would need to average about 214 rather than 200 miles per day from now on to beat Tommy by the end of 2015 - perfectly possible.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 21, 2015, 08:45:09 am
Day 231 / 12: Kurt rides 221 miles north from central Wisconsin to the shoreline. Steve continues on the PBP riding 188 miles from west of Tinteniac towards Dreux, on schedule for a 90 hour finish. Miles rides along the bay with some extra diversions to give him a 221 mile total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay231.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 21, 2015, 08:45:57 am
Day 232 / 13: Kurt rides with the wind for a fast 219 miles. Steve completes PBP in under 90 hours then immediately heads north to Dieppe to catch the ferry home but ends up a few miles south of the port. In total, a 186 mile day. Bottom bracket problems mean no substantial ride from Miles today.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay232.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on August 22, 2015, 10:04:18 pm
The HAM'r website appears to be missing a couple of Kurt days, but if your visualisation is right then Tarzan should be under 200 miles a day to reach the record.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 23, 2015, 08:31:19 am
Day 233 / 14: Kurt sticks to the lakes of NE Wisconsin for 222 miles of riding. Steve does a couple of post-PBP loops from Dieppe giving him 159 miles for the day and taking his reboot pace back down to Godwin's average. Miles rides north of Melbourne for 145 miles, presumably with a fixed bottom bracket.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay233.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 23, 2015, 04:59:59 pm
Day 234 / 15: Kurt rides 218 miles north through central Wisconsin. Steve does 217 miles in a long day after disembarking the ferry at Newhaven, travelling back to Milton Keynes via Hungerford (Tutti Pole?). Miles heads back to riding the bay for 136 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay234.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: toontra on August 23, 2015, 06:01:44 pm
Good stuff Jo!  I notice that on the full chart if you uncheck the "common start times" box it now shows Steve's current progress duplicated  - a continuation of the Jan 1st attempt and also the concurrent August re-start in real time.  Very cool - gives a great comparison of effort.

I also notice you've quietly dropped "Iron Ox" off the chart - quite right  ;)  Talk about a waste of statistical space!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Basil on August 23, 2015, 06:11:11 pm
I also notice you've quietly dropped "Iron Ox" off the chart - quite right  ;)  Talk about a waste of statistical space!

Yes.  I can't remember who created the excellent YearRecordTracker app, but it would be nice if he got dropped from there too.  Maybe to be replaced by SG2 or Miles.

*has no idea how much effort and Being Arsed this would need*
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 23, 2015, 06:23:52 pm
For info though, IronOx did a 40 mile ride yesterday, bringing his annual total to 2,629 miles. I would have thought a good number of YACF members have ridden more than that this year.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Basil on August 23, 2015, 06:32:49 pm
For info though, IronOx did a 40 mile ride yesterday, bringing his annual total to 2,629 miles. I would have thought a good number of YACF members have ridden more than that this year.

*checks*

No.  Only 2392, but hopefully overtaking him soon.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Bobby on August 23, 2015, 10:20:10 pm
For info though, IronOx did a 40 mile ride yesterday, bringing his annual total to 2,629 miles. I would have thought a good number of YACF members have ridden more than that this year.

Yup, a low mileage year with 3 months having only a handful of rides each & I've still ridden more than that...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 24, 2015, 07:00:47 am
Day 235 / 16: Kurt rides 213 miles east to Manitowoc. Steve rides slowly and only for 30 miles so takes the opportunity for a post-PBP recovery. This puts him 56 miles behind Kurt after the first 16 days. Miles puts in 188 miles along the bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay235.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jochta on August 24, 2015, 10:20:45 am
For info though, IronOx did a 40 mile ride yesterday, bringing his annual total to 2,629 miles. I would have thought a good number of YACF members have ridden more than that this year.

Loads will have I would have thought, I'm on 3,455 miles which is a little less than this time last year which was my best year since I kept keeping records (2009).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on August 24, 2015, 11:02:04 am
IronOx would have done better if he'd just followed me to and from work....
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on August 24, 2015, 12:09:22 pm
 if you look at the  UMCA rules then you realise how " odd" they are -- if I was a member and had paid an entry fee -- then I would be heading now towards being the 70/75 World record holder for annual mileage.

Similarly I could be the 70/75 male  World Champion under their rules for riding  just the odd qualifying event. Current 70/75 world champ rode 2 24 hour events only , riding 301 and 156 miles.

All the UMCA World Champions should be regarded as a very curious sub set of cyclists.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 25, 2015, 07:40:00 am
Day 236 / 17: Kurt follows the wind from east to west for most of the day with a moving average approaching 20mph and a total of 218 miles. Steve, still suffering with a post-PBP cold keeps it shorter (by the standards of the OYTT) and slow for 130 miles. Miles sticks to the bay for 172 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay236.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wheels of Fire on August 25, 2015, 09:19:33 pm
Thank you very much, for producing these graphs - they provide very informative and interesting viewing every morning over breakfast.

Watching Steve's restart on the graphs further up this page, the whole process of attempting this record seems akin to desperately trying to bail out a sinking boat. The effect that just one missed, or 'low-mileage' day is very disheartening!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 26, 2015, 06:41:28 am
Day 237 / 18: Kurt takes it comparatively easy in windy conditions with more stops and shorter day giving him a total of 142 miles. Steve, while still recovering from his cold, begins to increase his speed and distance with a 144 mile Cambridgeshire loop. This puts him just 20 miles ahead of 'January Steve' by day 18. Miles does a couple of bay rides for 129 miles. He is now 4,100 miles behind Tommy's WR pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay237.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 27, 2015, 08:38:38 am
Day 238 / 19: Kurt rides to Manitowoc for 210 miles. Steve continues to recover from illness with a 162 mile loop via Peterborough putting him marginally ahead of his January self but 267 miles behind Kurt's first 19 days. Miles does the bay with some diversions for 163 miles. As we edge towards the end of a northern hemisphere summer and Australian winter, we may be seeing the beginnings of a convergence in daily distances.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay238.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 28, 2015, 06:44:35 am
Day 239 / 20: Kurt, feeling the OYTT blues, sticks to the Fort Atkinson region and so far has only posted a ride of 74 miles. Steve continues with his recovery from his post-PBP cold and does another Cambridgeshire loop via Peterborough for 193 miles, creeping ahead of January Steve. Miles does a there-and-back-again trip along the bay for 107 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay239.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 29, 2015, 07:49:10 am
Day 240 / 21: Kurt heads west following the Wisconsin River but runs out of ridable roads and weather so quits the day with 149 miles of riding. Steve heads NE with the blustery wind for 202 miles and ends up at a Norwich Travelodge rather than face a long journey back into the wind. His summer pace keeps him comfortably ahead of January Steve. Nothing posted from Miles today.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay240.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 30, 2015, 07:52:29 am
Day 241 / 22: Kurt begins the long migration south from Wisconsin towards home at Little Rock Arkansas with 210 miles for the day. In his slightly less glamorous homeward road trip Steve heads back from a Norwich Travelodge to Milton Keynes with a couple of extra loops thrown in via Northampton and Buckingham giving him 201 miles. A second day from Miles with no riding posted. On this day in 1939, Tommy passed 50,000 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay241.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 31, 2015, 07:55:30 am
Day 242 / 23: Kurt continues his migration back towards Little Rock, but because of dental problems for Alicia, takes a circuitous 195 mile route via Decatur and Bloomington, Illinois. Steve passes the 40,000 milestone on another 204 mile fenland loop via Ely. Still nothing from Miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay242.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 01, 2015, 06:59:43 am
Day 243 / 24: Two rides from Kurt in Illinois and Missouri leave him south of St Louis with a 155 mile total by the end of the day. Steve, on a wet, wet, wet day, rides an enlarged loop around Cambridge for 201 miles. No ride from Miles for the fourth consecutive day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay243.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 02, 2015, 06:46:27 am
Day 244 / 25: Kurt rides an impressive 212 miles back to Little Rock while plagued by mechanical problems including a written off derailleur on one bike, trashed rims on another after it comes loose on the bike carrier and broken bars on the third bike.  Steve does another fenland loop of 203 miles, reporting that he has still not fully recovered from his post-PBP illness. Despite this, his recent consistency sees him increasing his gap over January Steve. After a four day gap Miles is back on the road with 101 miles of bay riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay244.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 03, 2015, 07:03:13 am
Day 245 / 26: Kurt, now back at home in Little Rock Arkansas, has to spend half the day assembling a fourth emergency bike while sourcing parts for his three broken bikes. He spends the other half riding local roads for 108 miles. Steve does a 220 mile Cambridgeshire and Essex loop in better weather than previous days reporting he is now recovering well from illness. Miles does 132 miles of bay riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay245.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: wajcgac on September 03, 2015, 05:46:30 pm
Hi Jo

Kurt appears to have posted a total of 5 rides on Strava on Tuesday (Day 235) totalling 212 miles however if you look at his Garmin pages one of the rides is titled 'Alicia Cycling'.

https://connect.garmin.com/modern/activity/885537550 (https://connect.garmin.com/modern/activity/885537550)

Distance for this ride is 31.1km/19.3 miles

This would suggest that one of the rides was actually done by Alicia ?

I'm sure when the official stats get updated all will become clear, in the meantime I hope this helps with the great job you are doing.

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 03, 2015, 06:11:37 pm
Thanks for pointing this out. I've just posted a query on Kurt's Strava post to see if we can get clarification.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: wajcgac on September 03, 2015, 07:30:46 pm

Jo

I've just zoomed in to the map on the garmin page and discovered that the ride actually starts in a small place in Arkansas which is actually called Alicia - so that may well explain the ride title.

I guess if your names Alicia its likely that you might go and visit it but in this case the coincidence has led to a bit of confusion - my apologies if this turns out to be the case.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 04, 2015, 06:54:34 am
Day 246 / 27: Arkansas cyclists rally round to help Kurt with his recent mechanical and health problems providing replacement components and some on-the-road company. Facing high daytime temperatures, he completes an impressive 221 miles keeping him marginally above Tommy's accumulated distance. Steve is also back on form completing a fenland figure of eight via Spalding for 215 miles. Nothing posted from Miles, which leaves him further behind the pace than Steve was at the end of his post-crash hospital recuperation.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay246.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 05, 2015, 06:49:19 am
Day 247 / 28: Kurt is back in the heat of Little Rock Arkansas doing repeats on local roads for a day's total of 216 miles. His bike problems seem to be sorted and breathing issues tolerable as he mixes upright with recumbent riding. Steve puts in a long day and late finish as he does a 220 mile loop of Cambridgeshire and Essex, continuing to pull away from January Steve. Miles does a couple of short Melbourne trips, only logging 9 miles of riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay247.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 06, 2015, 08:20:31 am
Day 248 / 29: Big miles from Kurt as he's back on the Little Rock hamster wheel doing 231 miles of local road repeats. Steve does a 195 mile Ely loop to maintain his lead over his January riding. Miles is back to the big rides with several bay trips for a 233 mile total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay248.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 07, 2015, 06:36:54 am
Day 249 / 30: Kurt settles in to a pattern of two local rides per day, one in early morning and the other in the afternoon/evening, avoiding the worst of the Arkansas heat. This gives him 208 miles, placing him within a day of the 50,000 milestone. Steve, in better weather than recent days, rides north and south to Boston for 215 miles. Miles does a there-and-back again ride along the bay for 131 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay249.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 08, 2015, 06:40:38 am
Day 250 / 31: The Arkansas high temperatures push Kurt's riding to the early morning and late evening along local roads. He passes the 50,000 milestone with a ride of 201 miles and remains ahead of Tommy's September 7th 1939 pace. Steve rides up to the Wash and back for 210 miles. Miles takes the train north to Shepparton and rides back to Melbourne for 112 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay250.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 09, 2015, 06:33:27 am
Day 251 / 32: Big miles from Kurt – 244 of them on Little Rock roads. This puts him 629 miles in front of Tommy's WR pace and 97 miles ahead of Tommy's actual riding at this stage of the challenge. Steve continues his climb away from his January riding, completing 212 miles through Cambridgeshire and Essex. Miles does another bay ride for 127 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay251.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on September 09, 2015, 07:02:46 am
... and Jo continues his very elegant work!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on September 09, 2015, 03:07:29 pm
Since Steve has now admitted that the schedule is out of the window, and since the graphs are showing that his progress since the reboot is better than the anticipated January/February mileage (hardly surprising), is it now time to lose the schedule curves from the graph?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on September 09, 2015, 04:45:04 pm
They don't make much sense in the context of the reboot as they're assuming a different time of year, also.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on September 09, 2015, 08:23:06 pm
They don't make much sense in the context of the reboot as they're assuming a different time of year, also.
That was kind of my point... ::-)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: toontra on September 09, 2015, 09:53:28 pm
They don't make much sense in the context of the reboot as they're assuming a different time of year, also.

On the full chart at http://gicentre.org/oytt/ (http://gicentre.org/oytt/) - if you uncheck the "common start times" box then you can see the comparative progress in real time since the restart in August (if that's what you're after).  They look remarkable similar!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 09, 2015, 09:59:16 pm
You can also uncheck 'schedules' if you don't wish to see Steve and Kurt's original published schedules.

Remember also that Steve is running two concurrent attempts, so while there is virtually no possibility that he could make the Tommy Godwin record in 2015, it is still instructive to see how an anticipated schedule differed from the reality.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 10, 2015, 06:44:06 am
Day 252 / 33: Both Kurt and Steve ride 220 miles – Kurt doing 20 repeats on a 11 mile stretch of local roads in Little Rock, Steve doing another Cambridgeshire/Essex loop. Their rides keep Kurt 57 miles ahead of Tommy's 243rd day total and pushes Steve further ahead of his February progress. Miles does another bay there-and-back for 135 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay252.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on September 10, 2015, 11:31:31 am
300 miles beneath the Godwin line.  He needs 20 days like yesterday to get back up to matching it.  Tough times ahead.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 11, 2015, 07:51:25 am
Day 253 / 34: Kurt rides a slightly wider selection of roads from Little Rock than recent days giving him another 233 miles. Steve heads east to Sudbury than takes a Cambridgeshire route home for 206 miles. Nothing posted from Miles today.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay253.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 12, 2015, 06:41:31 am
Day 254 / 35: Kurt goes back to the hamster wheel – 20 repeats of a 10 mile stretch of road beside the Arkansas River giving him 208 miles for the day. Steve does another fenland loop for 209 miles bringing him a little closer to Kurt's February pace. Miles does the bay as a single there-and-back for 111 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay254.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 12, 2015, 08:54:26 am
Here are the movement charts for the three riders. As before - dark bars represent time moving on the bike, 24 hours per row, January to September top to bottom.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay254a.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay254b.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay254c.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay254a.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay254b.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay254c.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/milesMovementDay254.png)

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Justin(e) on September 12, 2015, 10:58:21 am
Love your work
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 13, 2015, 08:45:32 am
Day 255 / 36: Kurt leaves some of his hamster wheel repeats to ride an extended loop down to Pine Bluff for a day's total of 221 miles. Steve heads northeast, and them some more east until there's no more (dry) east to ride, ending his 211 mile day just north of Lowestoft. Miles does several bay road trips for a total of 202 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay255.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 14, 2015, 06:59:57 am
Day 256 / 37: Steve takes a 220 mile meandering journey back from the Norfolk coast to MK. He's now less than 300 miles behind Tommy's WR pace. Kurt says he's back on the "hamster wheel", but nothing posted on Strava as yet. Miles focuses on doing regular trips up and down the first 30 mile stretch of the bay road giving him a 171 mile total for the day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay256.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Shreds on September 14, 2015, 08:48:57 am
Good to see the continued gradual upward trend from Steve. That seems to be what he is best at. Steady but sure.

KEEP GOING STEVE!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on September 14, 2015, 09:01:58 am
Good to see the continued gradual upward trend from Steve. That seems to be what he is best at. Steady but sure.

KEEP GOING STEVE!

Yes. As ever, very very very impressive.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on September 14, 2015, 10:17:14 am
I am puzzled, jo. Your graphs show Kurt to be behind Tommy's average speed. I thought he had pulled ahead of it some time ago. What am I missing?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on September 14, 2015, 10:18:07 am
Go Steve!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on September 14, 2015, 10:20:10 am
I am puzzled, jo. Your graphs show Kurt to be behind Tommy's average speed. I thought he had pulled ahead of it some time ago. What am I missing?

Ah, I think I have answered that. The graph I was looking at was aimed at Steve's relaunch and showed only 40 or so days' riding. Kurt's line is historical data being compared to Steve's current data.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 14, 2015, 11:44:03 am
Indeed. If you go to the interactive version (http://gicentre.org/oytt) you can use the buttons to switch between year overview, Kurt and Steve's last few weeks or the reboot period. I'm mostly showing pics from the reboot period on this thread.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on September 14, 2015, 02:51:25 pm
I'm glad Wowbagger asked this - I was a little confused too!

I don't think there's any way round it, but it is _slightly_ misleading putting the lines together - we find ourselves comparing miles ridden in August/September against what others did in Jan/Feb (and against Steve's schedule for Jan/Feb - I think? I'm not even sure about that! ).

Apologies if I've just added to the confusion ...  ::-)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 14, 2015, 04:05:36 pm
You can compare lines of the riders over the same period of time (i.e. Steve's September riding with Kurt's September riding) by selecting 'recent progress' button on http://gicentre.org/oytt The problem from a visual point of view is that Kurt and Steve are about 10,000 miles apart in terms of distance covered (and therefore vertical gap on the chart). As a result, if you scale the chart to see both lines, daily variation appears to be not very much and is quite difficult to build into anything approaching an interesting daily narrative:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay256Recent.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 15, 2015, 05:58:13 am
Day 257 / 38: Kurt "Mr Consistent" Searvogel rides Little Rock roads for another 221 miles, keeping him 66 miles ahead of Tommy's total for the same period. Kurt's WR target is now back under 200 miles per day for the remains of the year. Steve has a day of battling fenland winds and finishes at 1:30am with 209 miles for the day. Miles continues to ride up and down the bay for a total of 139 miles, give or take a couple of dodgy GPS uploads to Strava.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay257.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on September 15, 2015, 08:49:49 am
The main issue is now whether or not the 100,000 mile record is achievable by the end of July 2016; I haven't tried to work it out. What do you think, Jo?
I'll have a crack at that one if I may.

To get the 100k Steve needs RebootMiles + ExtraMiles >= 100,000
To get the record ExtraMiles must be completed in 500-365 days = 135 days.
Taking the 134 days up to and including 31 July Steve already has 20530.3 and that is with 2 days missing on HAMR and 12 days mileages still to be ridden.
Lets be pessimistic and assume UMCA reject the two late submissions and Steve stays in bed the rest of July.  Therefore ExtraMiles = 20530.3.
To achieve the 100k RebootMiles must therefore be >= 100,000 - 20530.3 = 79,469.7.

He may not go that far in the reboot.  As it stands he needs 75,066 but it looks likely Kurt will move that goalpost and Miles might do too.  Steve's original upper and lower plans were both > 80,000.  Time will tell but I think as things stand it looks likely that if Steve takes the year record he'll take the 100k too.
The official results are out covering the reboot so it's time to update this.
Steve can of course carry on after the OYTT just as Tommy did if he hasn't got 80703.7.  I'm only looking at what it would take for Steve to step off the bike on Aug 7th 2016 with both records broken.

Q. Why has ExtraMiles dropped so much?
A1. Because I'm an idiot.  I did not add up the 134 days to July 31 including 12 blank days, I added up the 134 days prior to the day of my post.
A2. 134 days prior to the reboot goes back to before the crash.  In the week or so prior to the crash Steve was doing far more miles than he was doing just before the reboot.

It'll be interesting to see what unfolds.  Carrying on past the year would be a far saner way to take the 100,000 record.  There's big gains to be made quite quickly because the 134 days includes the accident so 17 zero days and a lot of <100 days on the trike.  An extra week past the year could easily take a month off the record.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 16, 2015, 06:50:57 am
Day 258 / 39: A long day for Kurt with 233 miles of riding from Little Rock, edging further ahead of Tommy's total for the same period. Steve heads to the Norfolk coast in changeable autumnal weather, ending at the Acle Travelodge with a 199 mile total. Miles logs only 43 miles riding bay roads, bringing him close to 12,000 miles since his restart.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay258.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on September 16, 2015, 07:43:39 am
http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/byday.html

Here's the chart.

Steve's second start not displayed?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 16, 2015, 07:52:13 am
Nor is Miles's second attempt.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on September 16, 2015, 08:47:46 pm
300 miles beneath the Godwin line.  He needs 20 days like yesterday to get back up to matching it.  Tough times ahead.



Jo with your magical charts how many days or rather weeks would you say Steve will take to catch up on his lost miles due to PBP lurgy!   I had hoped that with 220 mls a day (few and far between) it would be by the end of Sept but guess it is going to be well into October.  wot say your computer predictions?
Thanks for all your tremendous work.
 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 16, 2015, 10:55:05 pm
If by 'catch up' you mean get back to WR pace, I'd say early November based on progress in the last couple of weeks:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay258Extrapolate.png)

He is currently about 300 miles below pace and has averaged 211.4 mpd over the last two weeks. That gains him 5.8 mpd over WR pace, therefore taking him about 52 days to gain those 300 miles.

There is of course, lots of uncertainty. He might have a few good days that could gain him a week. But what makes this a challenge so hard is that a single day of no riding would set him back over a month. It's the bad days he's got to look out for.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on September 17, 2015, 06:41:42 am
Jo thanks very much for your figures.  I also feared it could be November before he is back on track.  let's all hope he can manage to average highly mileage days to help him.  keep up all good work as it's much appreciated
 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 17, 2015, 07:37:45 am
Day 259 / 40: Kurt stated that after his long day yesterday, today would be a recovery day of 'only' 205 miles. In the event, he posts 139 miles of riding on his regular local roads. This still keeps him with a target of less than 200 miles per day for the remains of the year, but he dips below Tommy's riding for the first time. Steve's shrewd anticipation of the changeable weather gives him a wind advantage but very wet day from north Norfolk back to MK for a total of 213 miles. Miles posts another short day 44 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay259.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: The French Tandem on September 17, 2015, 11:46:29 am
Steve has a day of battling fenland winds

Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much  ::-)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Chris S on September 17, 2015, 12:13:55 pm
Steve has a day of battling fenland winds

Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much  ::-)

No, but I think you are asking for something that Steve himself doesn't want :).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on September 17, 2015, 06:17:41 pm
Steve has a day of battling fenland winds

Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much  ::-)






that has been investigated but the loss of time travelling (without a proper sleep) ) doesn't work out.  and az mentioned Steve doesn't want this
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: danridesbikes on September 17, 2015, 07:46:05 pm
Quote
Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much  ::-)

the day before the moped incident he did a 350km ride into a horrendous headwind, finishing at 3am and set off again at 6am..........
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on September 17, 2015, 08:44:17 pm
Actually some 244 miles I think.  The fated day of just some 26 could well have been a real mile eating day with tail wind to Lowestoft i think was on the plans
sadly he is between 33 and 55 days approx before he is back on track of averaging the minimum of 206 per day.
I am so very surprised that he didn't know what he'd averaged since restart.  This is not good not good a tall!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on September 17, 2015, 09:26:20 pm

he didn't know what he'd averaged since restart

A sign of Steve's involvement with the task being on a higher plane than having perpetual thoughts about the totals, perhaps?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 18, 2015, 05:52:35 am
Day 260 / 41: Alicia reports that she and Kurt have come down with illness again, but despite this Kurt rides a fast 217 miles south of Little Rock to bring him back within 20 miles of Tommy's like-for-like total. Steve puts in 220 miles on a Cambridgeshire-Essex loop. He is now less than a day away from Ossie Nicholson's 1933 record. No ride posted from Miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay260.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 19, 2015, 07:47:34 am
Day 261 / 42: Another long day of Little Rock roads for Kurt – 226 miles – puts him just 16 miles behind Tommy's distance over the same period. Steve heads to the Wash and back for 220 miles, passing Ossie Nicholson's 1933 record of 43,966 miles. No ride posted from Miles for the second day running.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay261.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: HTFB on September 19, 2015, 11:02:48 am
At current progress Original Steve looks to be on course to pass Bernard Bennett and so everybody except TG and Kurt, barring incident or lurgy. (I don't want even to speculate on his chance of managing an incident- and lurgy-free final quarter, for fear of the jinx.)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 20, 2015, 06:48:05 am
Day 262 / 43: Kurt heads south for a day punctuated with flat tyres, a broken rear wheel and rain giving him a 209 mile total. Steve does a 235 mile loop via the Wash in good cycling weather – his longest day's distance since PBP. Miles is back doing repeats of the northern section of the Port Phillip bay road for 164 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay262.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 20, 2015, 07:29:46 am
On September 16th I suggested that Steve might get back to WR pace in early November. This was based on him, at the time, doing about 210 miles per day. In the last three days he has averaged 225 miles per day. It's interesting to see how he's done that.

Here is his progress from 7th-15th September. The grey dashed line represents a standard speed (gradient of line) and distance (length of line) for comparison. Over this period, his average speed has remained pretty constant, with the exception of a slow day 38 (14th September). You can see where he stops for lunch as the little dip about a third of the way along each day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/stops1.png)


In the last four days, he's cut right down on lunch stop time, with no kink visible on his daily progress lines. This is closer to Kurt's riding strategy. Yesterday was notable in that he combined lack of long stops with a higher than usual moving speed to give him his big daily distance.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/stops2.png)

If he were to be able to keep this up for a while, he'll make good progress on the WR schedule, hitting WR pace around the 1st of October.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on September 20, 2015, 01:18:31 pm
Thanks Jo, I was wondering what it was Steve had changed.  :thumbsup:

I wonder what it was about his lunch routine he's eliminated? Instant food such as KFC vs bespoke ( e.g. 'spoons)?  Simply not having a rest?

Good return for the effort whatever it was.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on September 20, 2015, 03:31:15 pm
He must have fitted a sausage box on his bars.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on September 20, 2015, 07:54:47 pm
Tink it twas helium knickers who suggested (very sensible) that he trim his long long lunch break to just 30 mins and well glad he has taken note.
.

 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 21, 2015, 05:28:17 am
Day 263 / 44: A less eventful day for Kurt as he sticks mostly to local Little Rock roads and knocks off another 217 miles. He's currently just 34 miles behind Tommy's like-for-like distance. Steve's strategy of cutting back on stopped time and increasing his average speed pays off with another 235 mile day as he figure-of-eights his way through Cambridgeshire and Norfolk. This takes him within 40 miles of Kurt's equivalent day 44 distance and around 200 miles behind WR pace. Miles also appears to be changing strategy with faster riding as he keeps to the northern half of the Port Phillip Bay road, although only for 85 miles. He's now around 7,200 miles behind WR pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay263.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 22, 2015, 06:04:52 am
Day 264 / 45: A good day for Kurt as he clocks up another 225 miles with a trip out east to Lenoke followed by repeats on his local roads. He remains around 30 miles behind Tommy's like-for-like distance and about 199 miles per day required for the WR by the end of his year. Steve rides north to the Humber before bedding down for the night at the Doncaster Travelodge for a total of 214 miles. His 2015 attempt now requires around 300 mpd, his rebooted attempt, 206 mpd. Miles rides 88 miles of his bay route. He now requires 233 mpd for the record.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay264.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 23, 2015, 05:29:19 am
Day 265 / 46: Kurt rides a loop out to the east before returning to home roads for an afternoon of riding with others for a day's total of 225 miles. This puts him around 760 miles ahead of WR pace and 35 behind Tommy's like-for-like distance. 100 days to go until the end of the 2015 attempt for Steve (and 319 days until the end of his rebooted attempt). He returns from Doncaster to MK via Peterborough on a 230 mile route putting him ahead of Kurt's like-for-like total and within 175 miles of WR pace. No substantial ride posted from Miles. Taking his average daily distance to date, Miles' end of year projection is currently around 46,600 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay265.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on September 23, 2015, 10:46:10 am
I am losing track of how well Steve is doing under Attempt 2 compared to Kurt due to the different start dates.  The current pictures give a somewhat distorted picture, as my gut feel is that Steve is not actually doing that well compared to Kurt (or at least compared to what he will need to do given winter).

Is there an accumulated figure for Steve compared to Kurt on days when they were both riding and, for the purpose of "getting a feel for the state of play" when Steve was "healthy" (i.e. omitting the days from the moped collision and the start of Attempt 2).  Might give an idea of what the winter miles could (if his attempt 1 were replicated) do to Steve's progress?

Just a thought.  As I say, I'm struggling to get a sense for how Steve is doing against what he "needs" to do, rather than what he has done.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Martin on September 23, 2015, 10:51:36 am
It's good to see Kurt back chipping away at his required minimum; being back on his Manor and with company on rides seems to help, he clearly wasn't enjoying being up North over the summer.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: MrDrem on September 23, 2015, 10:55:54 am
jo, loving the visualisations, much better than my efforts with Google Sheets. Could I ask a quick question though. looking at my data (https://goo.gl/RBHtiS (https://goo.gl/RBHtiS)) I make Kurt 97.5 miles behind Tommy's like-for-like distance, and Steve (reboot version) 38.9 miles up on Kurt following yesterdays ride. I was wondering what accounts for the difference in our distances.

I've been taking mine from the completed daily distances on Strava, but updating them with the distances from the UMCA spread sheet (on http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/official_results/ (http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/official_results/)). I suspect that your distances are all from Strava, and suspect that this is the answer.

I'm loving following this on the maths side, and need to do more on the stats side to try and improve my projections of distance for it.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on September 23, 2015, 12:04:17 pm
I am losing track of how well Steve is doing under Attempt 2 compared to Kurt due to the different start dates.  The current pictures give a somewhat distorted picture, as my gut feel is that Steve is not actually doing that well compared to Kurt (or at least compared to what he will need to do given winter).

If we assume that Steve's January16-March16 yields the exact same mileage as January 15-March15, he'll bag 16834.2 miles - I've used the HAM'R tables in those 87 days (193.4 per day).

Since his reboot he's clocked 9050.4 miles in 45 days (201.1 per day).  Adding those together gives 25884.6 from 132 days.

If Kurt carries on at the present overall average rate of progress, he's on target for 76150 which would be the new record (though this is including his blips and illnesses - an illnessless run to the flag could see quite a bit more, but on the flipside...)  If that's considered the new target, Steve's remaining 233 days would need to yield 50265.4 miles - an average of 215.7 per day.  Of course, we've got to expect that the November15-December15 will be harder than now (though probably easier than January-March).  Steve is showing us at the moment what kind of mileages he is able to knock out in springy/summery weather, which bodes well for his home straight of April16-August16.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 23, 2015, 01:02:44 pm
I am losing track of how well Steve is doing under Attempt 2 compared to Kurt due to the different start dates.  The current pictures give a somewhat distorted picture, as my gut feel is that Steve is not actually doing that well compared to Kurt (or at least compared to what he will need to do given winter).

The difficulty is that there is no obvious way of making a complete comparison. The charts I have been mostly showing recently on this thread (including this morning), make that comparison by standardising against the number of days since the start of the official record for each. It has the advantage in that it helps to equalise what each has yet to do (e.g. both have  319 days of the challenge left in which differences in daily distances will play out, even if we happen to know how a significant chunk of Kurt's riding develops). It also has the advantage of allowing direct comparison between Steve's reboot with his original attempt for the same period of time.

The alternative of comparing by absolute date rather than number of days ridden can be seen by unticking 'Common start times' on the interactive version. For today, this gives the following:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay265ByDay.png)

This gives a better picture of the differences (and similarities) of the day-by-day distances of the riders, but tells us less about how well they are doing with respect to the record (e.g. while Kurt is further ahead of Tommy's WR pace, he also has far less time left in the challenge to make up any deficits or extend his lead). This day-by-day difference is what I have been trying to emphasise in the text accompanying these daily reports on this thread. To see how those differences are accumulating, we can zoom in a little, still showing absolute dates rather than days ridden:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay265ByDayZoom.png)

In the last week or so, Steve has been gaining on Kurt, but by a relatively small amount, so it's barely detectable on the graph (vertical distance of separation between the red and blue lines). The longer term trends are keeping them pretty evenly matched. The differences tend to emerge with those more occasional bad days when we see one or other of them dropping downwards a considerable distance.

Is there an accumulated figure for Steve compared to Kurt on days when they were both riding and, for the purpose of "getting a feel for the state of play" when Steve was "healthy" (i.e. omitting the days from the moped collision and the start of Attempt 2).  Might give an idea of what the winter miles could (if his attempt 1 were replicated) do to Steve's progress?

That figure depends when you start counting. But if we take distance since 8th August (Steve's reboot date), Steve has ridden about 9,290 miles and Kurt about 9,480 – a difference of about 190 miles in Kurt's favour. But in the scheme of things, this is nothing, and gives us little clue as to who is more likely to end up with the record. I don't think the differences are sufficient to say that either rider will be able to put the record out of reach for the other. Steve now has the advance of starting later in the year so has more scope to adapt to whatever Kurt does in the remaining 100 days or so. But of course that carries extra risk in that we know that unanticipated problems can radically change the state of play.


As I say, I'm struggling to get a sense for how Steve is doing against what he "needs" to do, rather than what he has done.

My charts are an attempt to put the "what he needs to do" at the front of the design. It's all about keeping above that thick black 0 line. You can pencil in another line about 1000 miles or so above Tommy's line in anticipation of Kurt accumulating 76k miles or so in his 365 days, but even at this stage in the year, it's pretty much guesswork. Most of us thought at the start of the year that what the riders 'needed' to do was to flow with the seasons, allowing a deficit to accumulate over winder to be paid off with a large accumulation of miles over summer. We now know that this wasn't really sustainable and that a slow, steady accumulation of >206 mpd rides is more achievable.


@MrDream All of the above is indeed based on the Strava submissions and I haven't corrected for any UMCA altered distances for the last three months or so. That would probably explain the small differences we are getting (e.g. I currently have Steve about 33 miles ahead of Kurt's like-for-like distance in their first 46 days), but I don't think it yet affects the overall picture. When I have some time, I will make those minor adjustments with UMCA's official distances.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on September 23, 2015, 03:19:50 pm
Thanks.  I should have said your charts are still my only reference point for understanding what's going on, and remain very elegant and extremely useful!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 24, 2015, 06:46:24 am
Day 266 / 47: Kurt has to cut his day a little short at 172 miles because of heart issues that need careful attention (unexpected elevated heart rate and, after examination, confirmed atrial fibrillation). His heart rate subsequently returned to normal, but he and Alicia are evaluating whether he will need some recovery time or change in strategy.

Steve complets a 208 mile loop through Cambridgeshire, putting him within a day of Walter Greaves' 1936 record. Miles is back to longer distances with a 178 mile day north of Melbourne.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay266.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 25, 2015, 05:50:30 am
Day 267 / 48: Kurt starts late after an eventful day of heart issues, but he keeps up his high average speed on local roads to complete 189 miles. He remains around 710 miles above WR pace and less than a day's riding behind Tommy's like-for-like distance. Steve rides out to the Norfolk coast passing Walter Greaves's 1936 record with 220 miles for the day. Miles returns to riding repeats of the northern section of the bay for a 162 mile total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay267.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 26, 2015, 06:56:41 am
Day 268 / 49: Kurt's speed appears unaffected by his recent heart diagnosis as he manages to fit 212 miles of Little Rock riding around an appointment with the cardiologist. Steve sticks to north Norfolk with a 205 mile loop from the Acle Travelodge, putting him within a day of Bernard Bennett's 1937 record. Miles rides up and down the bay for a 184 mile total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay268.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 26, 2015, 07:04:52 am
Here are September's movement charts for Kurt, Steve and Miles.

Looking at the last three days of Kurt's riding (bottom three rows of the blue chart), you can see just how determined a rider he is. Heart problems spotted in the afternoon of the 23rd cuts the ride short. A late night with no riding as his AF is diagnosed. A late start on the 24th, but he rides nevertheless. And most impressively, an early start on the 25th to make up for a few hours lost around midday to visit the cardiologist.

Steve's September movement chart shows his switch in strategy from the 16th onwards, cutting out the longer stops during the day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementSep26.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementSep26.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/milesMovementSep26.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 27, 2015, 07:26:47 am
Day 269 / 50: Kurt heads southward to the Arkansas-Texas border at the well-named Texarkana. To add to the events of this week, he has "a little crash today - feeling battered up", yet still manages 208 miles. Steve, on day 50 of his reboot, rides back to MK while passing the 10,000 milestone and Bernard Bennett's 1937 record of 45,801 miles. Miles continues to get familiar with the Port Phillip coastal road for a 161 mile day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay269.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 28, 2015, 05:45:59 am
Day 270 /51: Kurt rides back north from Texarkana towards Little Rock, nursing the road rash and bumps from yesterday's pothole induced off and adding 205 miles to his total. Steve does a Cambridgeshire loop via Ely for 219 miles putting him 758 miles ahead of his like-for-like February self. Miles does 3 repeats of the northern part of the bay road for 176 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay270.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 29, 2015, 05:53:48 am
Day 271 / 52: A day of familiar routes for all three riders. Kurt heads out east followed by repeats on his local roads to give him a day's total of 220 miles. Steve does a 207 mile Cambridgeshire loop. Miles does several repeats of the northern section of the bay road for 235 miles. As the Melbourne weather eases, he now appears to be completing longer distances after a fallow period but has a long way to catch up to WR pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay271.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 30, 2015, 06:30:49 am
Day 272 / 53: A late start, some wet weather, a couple of punctures and a terminal problem for his recumbent all make interesting times for Kurt. Nevertheless he rides fast for a total of 212 miles. Steve does 215 miles of Cambridgeshire and Suffolk in good early autumn weather. Miles does a couple more bay trips for 126 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay272.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 01, 2015, 06:12:27 am
Day 273 / 54: Kurt does one Godwin (plus another 100m for luck) on his usual route at a slightly slower speed than usual. With 101 days to go he is a good buffer of 740 miles ahead of WR pace and around 200 miles behind Tommy's like-for-like distance. October was the last month in which Tommy was making substantial gains over his average pace; in his final couple of months he began to ease off his long daily distances. Steve consolidates his September distance with another 210 mile loop through Cambridgeshire and Suffolk. Miles rides through the night and on into the day on familiar bay roads for 212 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay273.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Justin(e) on October 01, 2015, 03:48:47 pm
Jo
I am constantly impressed by the amount of quality work you put out consistently.
Thanks
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 02, 2015, 06:17:08 am
Day 274 / 55: Kurt rides 211 miles south to the Louisiana border. Steve keeps up his recent pattern of Cambridgeshire/Suffolk loops for one Godwin's worth of riding. Likewise Miles does the northern section of the bay for 189 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay274.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 04, 2015, 08:41:20 am
Day 275 / 56: Kurt rides south from LR towards the Louisiana border again, squeezing in 211 miles and a marriage proposal to Alicia into the day. Steve and Miles follow a similar pattern to previous days completing a 205 mile loop and 180 mile back and forth respectively.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay275.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 04, 2015, 08:42:01 am
Day 276 / 57: Kurt finds a fast stretch of road, east of Hope heading to El Dorado, and rides it four times at a moving average of over 20mph and a day's total of 163 miles. Steve rides up to Wisbech and back for 218 miles. Miles continues around the bay accumulating 173 miles today.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay276.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on October 04, 2015, 07:51:12 pm
I believe there may be a typo in reply #749, unless Steve average about 800mph!  ;)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 05, 2015, 06:11:41 am
Corrected. Thanks.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 05, 2015, 06:22:08 am
Day 277 / 58: Kurt takes a rest day after accumulated fatigue, riding 53 miles around Little Rock. This keeps him around 550 miles above WR pace, so leaves him with a couple more days in the bank should he need to rest again before the end of the challenge. But again it demonstrates just what a perilous position all three riders are in – this one day of riding a quarter of his normal distance undoes all the gains made over the last month. Steve does another 218 miles, following familiar roads through the flatlands of eastern England and putting him within 100 miles of WR pace. Miles rides 187 miles of familiar bayside roads.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay277.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 06, 2015, 06:45:14 am
Day 278 / 59: In a partial reverse of the previous day, Kurt is back up to longer rides with 221 miles of Little Rock roads while Steve, battling wet autumnal weather, manages a shorter 172 miles. This undoes Steve's gains made over the last week putting him around 130 miles behind WR pace. Miles shows consistency with another 194 miles of the bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay278.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 07, 2015, 06:26:01 am
Day 279 / 60: A steady day for Kurt sees him riding his local roads for 214 miles, leaving him around 580 miles in front of WR pace and passing 90,000km. Steve has a long wet autumnal day riding 232 miles from Ipswich to York. This puts him around 105 miles behind WR pace, undoing the loss of the previous day's shorter ride. For a bit of variety Miles rides the roads north of Melbourne for 100 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay279.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 07, 2015, 06:28:13 am
Movement charts for Steve, Kurt and Miles over the last five weeks:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay279.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kurtMovementDay279.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/milesMovementDay279.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 07, 2015, 10:01:12 pm
How consistent have the OYTT challengers been day-by-day? Below are the proportions of daily ride distances placed in 20km bands (0-20km, 20-40km, 40-60km etc.) for Tommy, Steve, Kurt and Miles. For a change I've used kilometres rather than miles, but have highlighted all the distance bands above Tommy Godwin's average record pace (331km or 206 miles).

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/dailyPropsTommy.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/dailyPropsSteve.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/dailyPropsKurt.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/dailyPropsMiles.png)

Kurt's strategy of consistently riding a little above WR pace for as many days as possible is clearly evident. As is Steve's injury and recovery period and subsequent climb back towards WR pace. Miles stands out as having a much more variable pattern of daily distances – something he's going to have to improve upon if he stands any chance of nearing the record.

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 08, 2015, 06:48:24 am
Day 280 / 61: 221 steady Little Rock miles from Kurt sees him approaching 600 miles ahead of WR pace. Steve rides back home from York with a late finish and 228 miles for the day. This puts him around 85 miles behind WR pace and now ahead of Kurt's like-for-like distance. Another short day for Miles as he rides for 80 miles north of Melbourne.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay280.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 09, 2015, 06:18:42 am
Day 281 / 62: More of the same from Kurt – 218 fast miles ridden from Little Rock. Steve rides a fenland loop for 209 miles, moving him steadily towards that WR pace. He has now been moving on his bike for exactly 50% of every hour of 2015, including his time when recovering after his broken ankle. Another comparatively short day from Miles, covering 126 miles of the bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay281.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Laid Back Rich on October 09, 2015, 12:53:59 pm
He has now been moving on his bike for exactly 50% of every hour of 2015, including his time when recovering after his broken ankle

yet another astonishing fact, thanks Jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on October 09, 2015, 01:00:01 pm
Looking at the graphs, if Steve can continue Godwin pace from today for the remainder of 2015 it seems that he'll only be beaten by Godwin and Tarzan, despite the broken ankle.

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Graeme on October 09, 2015, 05:59:56 pm
10 months this has been my go-to news feed. Great endurance Jo! Thank you.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 10, 2015, 07:25:54 am
Day 282 / 63: Familiar roads for all three riders. Kurt has a semi-recovery day with 122 miles covered at a slightly slower pace (by Kurt standards). Nevertheless he continues with a 500 mile buffer over the record pace and only 13 weeks to go. Steve rides for 211 miles in good autumn weather. Rebooted October Steve is now 1000 miles ahead of March Steve and 75 behind WR pace. Miles rides 118 miles – a steady accumulation – but his overall daily average is taking him further and further away from the pace he requires to have a realistic chance of the record. He now has to make up approximately 8,400 miles on top of a 206 mpd average to take the record from Tommy (and probably more if Kurt raises it further).

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay282.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 11, 2015, 08:07:36 am
Day 283 / 64: Kurt is back on form with a 220 mile local ride including joining the start of Wounded Warrior event and some much needed company on the road. Steve knocks out another eastward loop for 213 miles on his refurbished bike taking him to around 67 miles shy of WR pace. Miles does more bay riding for another 178 miles towards his total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay283.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 12, 2015, 06:35:03 am
Day 284 / 65: Kurt does a couple of longer loops to the south of Little Rock before finishing on his usual river trail for a day's total of 227 miles. Steve loops 209 miles east via Thetford Forest inching him closer to that WR line. Miles continues with 177 miles of repeats of the northern section of the bay road.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay284.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 13, 2015, 06:46:30 am
Day 285 / 66: After a van fuelling mixup, Kurt is left without motorised support, but nevertheless completes 215 miles of local riding. Steve tries an out and back route through Essex for 207 miles. Miles does a single bay trip for 75 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay285.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 14, 2015, 06:35:58 am
Day 286 / 67: Kurt has a slightly slower start, but is soon buoyed up by some company on the road to complete 209 miles by early evening. Steve also manages 209 miles on a wide loop of Cambridge at a slightly faster pace than recent days. He is within 3 days of reaching 50000 miles in 2015. Miles does three there-and-back bay trips for 188 miles. On this day in 1939, Tommy passed the 60,000 milestone.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay286.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 15, 2015, 06:31:37 am
Day 287 / 68: Kurt keeps it local for 220 miles lifting him to around 580 miles above WR pace. As the weather in the UK continues to cool, Steve contends with a northerly wind across the fens for 215 miles. He is now about 50 miles behind Tommy's average. Miles puts in a long day for 232 miles of Port Phillip Bay.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay287.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 16, 2015, 08:05:30 am
Day 288 / 69: Kurt follows a now regular pattern of riding out east in the early morning then being joined by others on the road as he rides back to Little Rock. All in for 216 miles. Steve has a late start but virtually no stopping time as he rides out to Thetford Forest before returning home for a total of 206 miles. He's now a day away from 50,000 miles in 2015. Miles rides north of Melbourne for 189 miles after being knocked off his bike yesterday on his usual bay roads (thankfully no injuries reported).

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay288.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 17, 2015, 05:33:07 am
Day 289 / 70: Kurt has a steady day and fast evening on his usual roads riding one Godwin to keep him around 600 miles above WR pace. Steve passes 50,000 miles on a day of biting NE winds across the fens. He continues his recent style of steady pace with little or no stopping, allowing him to complete 217 miles in 14h30m. Miles has a fourth consecutive day of 300km+ distances, riding the bay for 211 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay289.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 18, 2015, 08:19:28 am
Day 290 / 71: Another 223 miles in the bank for Kurt has he rides around his usual roads with company from some local riders. Steve has a tough 199 mile day via Thetford Forest that is noticeably slower than usual, no doubt in part due to developing leg pain and a rear flat. Miles has a second day of around 212 miles moving him marginally towards record pace, but still with around an 8,500 mile deficit to make up over the next eight months.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay290.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 19, 2015, 06:45:31 am
Day 291 / 72:   209 miles for Kurt with plenty of company on the road from various teams of local riders. Steve continues to have some leg pain and a consequent slow and long day via Ely for 182 miles. This leaves him around 64 miles from the WR pace. Miles keeps it shorter on a couple of bay trips with a total of 93 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay291.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 20, 2015, 06:50:55 am
Day 292 / 73: Congratulations to Kurt and Alicia.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay292.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 21, 2015, 06:52:41 am
Day 293 / 74: A cycling honeymoon for Kurt and Alicia follow a familiar pattern of local roads with a 'drafternoon' accompanied by local riders for a day's total of 210 miles. Steve, still nursing an injured leg, has a fourth consecutive day of slightly shorter distances, today of 190 miles. This leaves him around 88 miles behind WR pace. Miles has a day away from the bay riding from the north for 167 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay293.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on October 21, 2015, 08:46:12 am
JO  thanks for all your graphs etc.  88 miles behind is not good is it.  Going to turn colder later this week. The changing of the clocks won't effect him as he would start an hour earlier if he wished to
 ???
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 21, 2015, 08:57:38 am
88 behind is not in itself a problem with over nine months to go. After all, he is in the position he was about two weeks ago and is ahead of all previous attempts after their first 74 days. It's worth looking at the full year picture on the OYTT visualization page (http://gicentre.org/oytt/) to keep it in perspective.

The risk for all challengers is that it doesn't take much to drop back a long way in a short space of time, so it's nice to have a bit of a buffer. Even Kurt, who has done exceptionally well with a buffer of 590 miles, is still only three non-cycling days away from failing to take the record.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on October 21, 2015, 08:57:58 am
Stop worrying, Arry-R  :)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on October 21, 2015, 11:08:01 am
Actually, I think the correct advice is "Carry on worrying, but keep that worry at the normal levels."

Or, in the immortal words of Corporal Jones, "Don't panic!"
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 22, 2015, 05:38:18 am
Day 294 / 75: A steady day for Kurt with one Godwin covered and a tussle with the dozies. Steve is back on the Godwin+ distances with a 210 mile loop via Thetford Forest, matching Tommy's distance for the day in 1939. Miles does 174 miles riding from the north back towards Melbourne.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay294.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 23, 2015, 05:52:51 am
Day 295 / 76: 219 miles for Kurt as he follows a similar pattern to recent days – ride out east in the morning followed by a drafternoon with local riders and an evening riding with Alicia. No leg grumblings from Steve has he does a fenland loop with some helpful wind assistance for a day's total of 211 miles. Miles does more riding between Seymour and Melbourne with some night riding accumulating 207 miles, of which 129 were within the 24 hours of 22nd of October.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay295.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 24, 2015, 06:33:57 am
Day 296 / 77: Kurt has an eventful 219 miles as he rides north to Jonesboro. Three flat tyres, an off on wet roads, someone throwing something at him and a stretch along a hard shoulder-free highway in fast traffic. But you don't get to this point in the OYTT without being resilient to such things. Steve makes good progress on another Thetford Forest round until the dozies strike late in the day when he takes a rest before finishing after midnight. All in for 210 miles leaving him 74 miles behind Tommy's WR pace. Miles completes his night ride back to Melbourne than starts on the bay for 111 miles in this 24 hour period.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay296.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 24, 2015, 06:39:06 am
I'm off to Chicago (http://ieeevis.org) for a week where among other things I will be presenting work on the OYTT, public bike hire art and visualizing LEL and PBP (http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/12351/). So expect a little disruption to these daily reports.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 25, 2015, 01:33:36 am
Day 297 / 78: Kurt, feeling bruised and tired after yesterday's crash and unmotivated by Arkansas wind and rain, keeps it short at 165 miles. This leaves him around 575 miles above Tommy's WR pace. Steve has a late start after the previous night's late finish, but zips round the fens for 213 miles. Miles rides the bay roads at night giving him 107 miles within the 24 hours.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay297.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on October 25, 2015, 06:09:03 am
Day 297 / 78: Kurt, feeling bruised and tired after yesterday's crash and unmotivated by Arkansas wind and rain, keeps it short at 165 miles.

I find this time of year the hardest for motivation.  It's not that the weather is worse now than it will be in January and February but that it is  a lot worse than in has been in August and September.  Says he, tired after working too hard for two months and expecting a kicking on the club run today. 

Keep up the good work, Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Oakhambike on October 25, 2015, 02:30:57 pm
Enjoy Chicago Jo and thanks for all your work - your post is my first internet fix of each day.

Once again thanks
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 26, 2015, 03:20:32 am
Day 298 / 79: Kurt continues his long dark days of the soul as he struggles with rain, wind and cold while riding south from Little Rock. He manages 156 miles, leaving him around 520 miles above Tommy's record pace. After a bonus hour of sleep thanks to the end of British Summer Time, Steve is back on form with a cool (veering to chilly in the evening) 220 mile fenland visit. Miles surfs a northerly tailwind by riding from Seymour to just north of Melbourne three times in 24 hours leaving him with a day's total of 182 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay298.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on October 26, 2015, 10:50:16 am
Thanks for the continuing excellent visualisations, Jo!  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: crowriver on October 26, 2015, 11:44:48 am
The visualisations, but also the summary accounts of each rider's day are captivating.

We shall all miss these I'm sure!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 27, 2015, 03:14:32 am
Day 299 / 80: October 26th 1939 was the day that Tommy Godwin took Ossie Nicholson's previous world record having accumulated 62,746 miles. Today, Kurt, starting 9 days behind, has ridden 60,131 miles. Steve, 52,124 miles. They should both overtake Ossie's total before the year is out. Whether either or both will take Tommy's record remains to be seen, and unlike Tommy, probably not to be decided until week 50 of their challenges.

Today Kurt faces more rain and so cuts short his evening riding for a total of 170 miles. Steve, who has found his autumn legs, rides through fenland winds to add 216 miles to his total. Miles, riding between Melbourne and Seymour to the north completes 153 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay299.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Frank9755 on October 27, 2015, 07:55:46 am
It's interesting looking at the big picture chart again, in the context of where we now are.

What I now find most striking is that, while we know that Tommy put in massive mileages in June and July with team support, the distances he was doing into September and October, when he would have been riding on his own (what date did the pacing stop?), were still huge - far more than either Kurt or Steve has consistently managed. 

Kurt has the advantage of having Tommy's mark to aim for but extrapolating the trend of his last couple of months suggests that, given shortening days and worsening weather, it is by no means in the bag for him.

Steve looks like he has got his strategy sorted out with a very solid two and a half months.  Slightly below what he did for a similar period in the Summer but, we hope, at a level that he can sustain.  Ironic that, after all the concern about Kurt copying Steve's strategy, it has ended up being the other way round!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on October 27, 2015, 10:52:13 am
I don't think that anyone is copying anyone else's strategy. Kurt certainly gave that impression early on, but ten months in this has become a battle for survival. I think it was a conversation reported by Alicia in which the analogy of clinging to the side of the mountain was used. I think that sums it up well, but there is also an element of upstream canoeing involved. The moment you stop rowing you end up further back than where you started.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TheRedEyeJedi on October 27, 2015, 11:29:46 am
I agree - there is no strategy involved here.   You have to get 206 miles or over on day one then do that every day.   If you fall short then you have to do a longer ride for how ever many days it takes to wipe out that loss.  If your lucky then you will beat the record with a week or two left and then you get to set your winning margin in that period

Its a survival exercise, with a large element of self harm involved.

The really telling thing from that most recent graph is that an innocuous injury within the last 2 weeks, or a very bad spell of weather, or another unforeseen problem could be the difference between beating the record or not.   It could yet come down to a time trial effort on the last week or days!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 28, 2015, 03:53:43 am
Day 300 / 81: Kurt endures another day of rain and cooler temperatures than he'd like but has the company of several riders throughout the 36 repeats of the Little Rock 'hamster wheel' trail for a total of 187 miles. While he's slipping a little towards the WR line, he is still 470 miles above it, so can afford a few more days like this if he needs to. Steve, in better spirits manages an Essex-Suffolk-Cambridgeshire loop of 217 miles, putting him just 31 miles behind WR pace. At the rate of recent progress, he will hit the WR line before the weekend. Miles heads out on a rare trip west of Melbourne for a total of 154 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay300.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 29, 2015, 03:16:51 am
Day 301 / 82: Kurt finds his mojo, knocking out 220 miles with a boost from some company on the way. Steve feels better but a little shorter than he anticipated in his loop around Ely for 202 miles. Thus puts him around 34 miles short of WR pace. Miles take the train north and rides south back to Melbourne for 124 miles. He is now over 9,000 miles behind record pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay301.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 30, 2015, 02:52:30 am
Day 302 / 83: Alicia reports that Kurt had been close to throwing the towel in at several points in the last week, but now seems to have surfaced from that dark place to add another 221 miles to his total. Steve also on good form, edges to within 30 miles of the WR line with a 216 mile day. Miles is back on bay road detail riding for 127 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay302.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on October 30, 2015, 11:39:40 am
Probably the result of being reminded the book sales will make it all worth while.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on October 30, 2015, 11:50:04 am
Jo, just wanted to say that your one paragraph summaries for each day are terrific. Brief yet really give a feeling of how each rider is doing.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on October 30, 2015, 03:10:37 pm
Jo, just wanted to say that your one paragraph summaries for each day are terrific. Brief yet really give a feeling of how each rider is doing.




+1

 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: rabbit on October 30, 2015, 03:43:47 pm
Yup, couldn't do without these summaries to keep up!  Thanks so much Jo
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on October 30, 2015, 05:07:28 pm
And a large vote of thanks from also. In fact I'll even buy you a beer!*

*assuming we ever meet and assuming you like beer and assuming you're old enough to drink.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 31, 2015, 11:14:30 am
Day 303 / 84: With only one day more of riding in Little Rock before Kurt migrates south, he completes 209 miles on his local roads. Steve has a demanding day of headwind, some "tummy troubles" and traffic holdups but completing an Essex/Cambridgeshire Godwin nonetheless. Miles sees 151 miles of bay action.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay303.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 31, 2015, 12:54:53 pm
Flying back from Chicago tonight, so there will be a delay before Saturday's graphic.

And in a very tenuous link to visualizing the OYTT, this was what I have been doing in the Windy City...

We Become the City (http://polishedfirewood.org/wbtc)

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/acf/wbtcLeRoyNeimanBW0small.jpg)

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/acf/wbtcLeRoyNeiman1eSmall.jpg)

(http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/acf/wbtcLeRoyNeimanBW2small.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: crowriver on October 31, 2015, 03:28:42 pm
Jo, looks interesting. SAIC: is the event coming from an art perspective, design, technology, or a bit of a mix of all three?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 02, 2015, 04:46:45 pm
A bit of all three really. You can see the programme here http://visap.uic.edu/2015/DataImprovisations_Catalog.pdf

(apologies to the OP for derailing this thread... normal service will be resumed soon)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 02, 2015, 04:54:57 pm
Day 304 / 85: Kurt's last day in Little Rock is a wet and shorter one, completing 119 miles of the hamster wheel. He will no doubt be happy to see the last of those roads, which he must have ridden many hundreds of times now. A long day for Steve riding to King's Lynn and back, getting home at approaching 2am but with 221 miles on the clock. Miles also has a longer day than usual with 192 miles of bay road riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay304.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 02, 2015, 06:02:54 pm
Day 305 / 86: Kurt starts flying south for the winter with somewhere between 188-200 miles ridden subject to ironing out a few GPS problems. He ends the day in Louisiana and potentially within a couple of days of passing René Menzies' 1937 record. After yesterday's late finish, Steve does takes it marginally easier with a trip to the Peterborough area and back for 203 miles taking his reboot attempt within a gnat's whisker of Tommy's WR line (to be continued tomorrow...). Miles takes the train out west and rides east back towards Melbourne for 127 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay305.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: crowriver on November 02, 2015, 09:45:31 pm
A bit of all three really. You can see the programme here http://visap.uic.edu/2015/DataImprovisations_Catalog.pdf

(apologies to the OP for derailing this thread... normal service will be resumed soon)

Great, thanks: looks really interesting!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 03, 2015, 09:25:39 am
Day 306 / 87: Kurt continues his migration to Florida heading south through Louisiana towards Baton Rouge. His healthy total for the day of 226 miles puts him within a day of René Menzies' 1937 record. Miles has a shorter 24 hours totalling 84 miles heading north to Seymour.

Steve heads to King's Lynn starting well, but with a short sleep stop towards the end of the day and completing his 215 miles after 2am. The chart doesn't show it yet as the ride finished after midnight, but Steve finished his ride within 2 miles of the ghost of Tommy Godwin riding a steady 8.57mph. Day 307/88 will be a significant one for Steve as he may well surface above that WR pace. And it was on day 88 of his first attempt that he was knocked off by an inattentive moped rider.


(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay306.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on November 03, 2015, 09:54:27 am
...there will be a delay.....

We scarcely had a chance to notice it! Ongoing thanks to you Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 04, 2015, 07:28:12 am
Day 307 / 88: Kurt continues his migration to warmer climes riding though Louisiana to the Mississippi gulf coast for exactly one Godwin. Steve, on day 88 of his reboot with continuing tummy troubles, tickles the WR line ending the day just 1.5 miles behind Tommy's ghost. Miles does a couple of trips north to Seymour before heading off to the west and a 24 hour total of 200 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay307.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on November 04, 2015, 10:02:41 am
I suspect there is a psychological boost from tickling the Godwin line at the end of the day. 
But there may be an even bigger one when he starts the day not having dipped under. 
Onwards Steve.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on November 04, 2015, 10:49:33 am
Which comes next; Not starting the day below the Godwin line or ending a day above the Searvogel line?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: wajcgac on November 04, 2015, 06:32:16 pm

Has Steve in fact already broken the Godwin Line on his 2nd attempt?

I'm going to put my head above the parapet and suggest that Steve has actually reached the Godwin line and exceeded it by a little over 4 miles at the end of Day 88.

The UMCA Total from official Spreadsheet up to and inc 16/10/2015 = 14364.7 miles

The data is on there as well up to and inc 29/10/2015 but has not been totalled up due to an error on the spreadsheet = 2687.1 miles

Add that to the data for the days up to and inc 3/11/2015 directly from Strava = 1050.3 miles

Total for Steve = 18102.1 miles

Tommy after 88 days is (75065/365) x 88 = 18097.9

that would make Steve 4.2 miles up on the Godwin Line at close of play Day 88.

I could be wrong of course so please check the data/calculations.





Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on November 04, 2015, 06:36:01 pm
I was a bit confused by this as well, given Steve's line on the day 88 chart ends above the horizontal axis. 
I thought I was missing something obvious so didn't mention it. 
But now someone has cast mathemagic...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 04, 2015, 06:54:35 pm
Yesterday, Steve peaked (above the Godwin line) at around 11:30pm when he finished the ride. In the remaining half hour once Steve had stopped for the night, the steady ghost of Tommy Godwin continued his 8.6mph riding so Steve's position began to fall down again. As it does through the night when he's not riding.

There is some minor graphical rounding and some error on the year's GPS totals which means in reality, I wouldn't want to call it to within 50 miles or so at this stage. It's more of a symbolic position at this level of detail. Based on recent progress, I am expecting Steve to be able to continue to edge upwards as he averages over 205.7mpd in the coming days, so he should emerge more unambiguously above the line.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 05, 2015, 09:00:17 am
Day 308 / 89: Kurts spends a day at the gulf coast doing steady laps to accumulate 201 miles. Having passed Rene Menzies' total, his next targets will be  100,000km and then Ozzie Nicholson's 1937 record, both of which he should achieve within a week. Steve starts a little later heading on another NE loop at his normal speed, but begins to slow towards the end of the day, eventually finishing around 2am with 206 miles. Little activity from Miles, who completed his night ride from the previous day with 67 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay308.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 06, 2015, 06:46:37 am
Day 309 / 90: Kurt continues with loops along the Mississippi gulf coast in high temperatures and humidity accumulating 220 miles for the day. A 217 mile Thetford Forest loop for Steve takes him above Tommy's WR pace for a while, but another finish after midnight means he is yet to end the 24 hour period comfortably above the line. Very little riding for Miles with only 2 Melbourne miles logged.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay309.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on November 07, 2015, 09:41:09 am
To answer my own question...
The Godwin line is 205.7 mpd
The Searvogel line is 207 mpd currently
The difference between the two is 1.3mpd
Today is Steve's day 92.
92*1.3=119.6, that's how far ahead of Tommy Steve needs to be to catch Kurt today.
Since this is less than a days progress Steve will end a day above the the Searvogel line before he begins a day ahead of Tommy's ghost.

Unless Steve or Kurt change their daily habit of course.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 07, 2015, 12:18:57 pm
Day 310 / 91: Kurt spends another day based at Waveland on the Mississippi gulf coast passing a significant milestone – 100,000km in 301 days. Steve has a challenging day in blustery conditions, heading south and west for the first time in many months including the first visit to Marsh Gibbon since June 12th. He finishes with an early night and 141 miles ridden, leaving him 58 miles below the Godwin line. No ride posted by Miles today.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay310.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: StevieB on November 08, 2015, 10:07:41 am
or 301 days at 332 km per day, average
or 301 days and the numbers are still staggering
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 08, 2015, 12:32:52 pm
Day 311 / 92: More Waveland loops for Kurt who cuts things a little short (for him) at 195 miles when the Mississippi rain gets a bit much. Steve, starting from St Neots, has miserable wet and windy weather and some ongoing tummy troubles to contend with and makes it back home with 200 miles on the clock, 25 of them after midnight. Miles has a 65 mile night time ride to Seymour.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay311.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 09, 2015, 07:21:15 am
Day 312 / 93: Kurt battles strong crosswinds and rain along the Mississippi coast managing 154 miles but passing Ossie Nicholson's 1937 record. He only has two more to pass now – Bernard Bennett's and Tommy Godwin's 1939 milages.  Steve also has some windy weather looping through Thetford Forest and another 2am finish for 214 miles. This leaves him 55 miles below the Godwin line. No ride posted from Miles, who is now around 2750 miles behind pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay312.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LEE on November 09, 2015, 10:46:17 am
Instead of looking at graphs, to visualise Steve's amazing achievements, on Saturday I set off at 04:30 and rode 326km due North to Stockport.

By the time I got there it was past 11pm.  The weather was dark/windy, dark/rainy, very rainy, very windy, even more windy, even more rainy, windy, sunny, dark, cold, foggy, very cold and then very dark, foggy and cold.

It's not the first time I've ridden such a distance but it's the first time I've done it at this time of year.  What I noticed:

1 - It's dark just as much as it's light.  Night riding is slower and you certainly get a lot of night riding in November.

2 - It's full of weather.  It took lots of concentration to deal with buffetting from wind and rain. Lots of stopping to change into appropriate clothing for the conditions.

3 - It's messy.  The smaller roads and lanes were close to off-roading conditions at times.  soggy leaves, branches, gravel-strewn and often flooded.  Add darkness to that and some of my descending was at walking pace.  How I didn't puncture is a mystery.  It was very hard to keep up any sort of pace.

4 - Food.  I was much hungrier, more often.  Even though it started out mild I was soaked early on and then it got cold.  It takes a lot of extra calories to stay warm, extra calories you don't need in July.


People who don't cycle think that Steve's challenge is hard.  "Wow!", they say, "200 miles a day, that's a lot". But they really don't have a clue.

People who cycle think that Steve's challenge is very hard. "Wow!", they say, "I've done London-to Brighton and that was really tough.  I can't imagine 200 miles". They have a slight clue.

I think that, to fully appreciate what Steve is attempting, you really need to try a day in Steve's (cycling) shoes.  My (already high) respect for Steve went higher when I was about 250km into the ride and feeling weather-beaten and, quite frankly, bored of riding in the dark on my own.
When it's dark at 6pm, thinking to yourself "Just another 100km" is actually fairly depressing when you are on your own, in the middle of Nowhere, Nowhereshire.

I can sort of, possibly, maybe, perhaps, imagine getting to a place when 320km a day isn't physically too demanding but the mental aspect of banging out the miles, relentlessly, in the dark, is totally beyond me. 
I have always struggled, and always will struggle, to get any enjoyment out of riding dull miles in the cold & dark.

Amazing stuff Steve... Keep on going mate.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on November 09, 2015, 10:53:04 am
Points very well made Lee!

(And you still managed a time for a 300 which would be respectable even in summer.)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on November 09, 2015, 06:46:05 pm
You didn't try hard enough, Lee! 326km is below 1 Godwin!

Seriously, great respect. Jan and I jacked it in after 34 miles yesterday and got the train home. We could have done a more miles but we were due in Maidstone for babysitting purposes.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on November 09, 2015, 07:28:03 pm
I'm doing all my cycling training in the garage. I'll be cycling outside again next year.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on November 09, 2015, 08:10:07 pm
I'm doing all my cycling training in the garage. I'll be cycling outside again next year.

Provided you cycle one Godwin of virtual miles a day, we won't judge you  :)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on November 09, 2015, 09:02:21 pm
<...>
I can sort of, possibly, maybe, perhaps, imagine getting to a place when 320km a day isn't physically too demanding but the mental aspect of banging out the miles, relentlessly, in the dark, is totally beyond me. 
I have always struggled, and always will struggle, to get any enjoyment out of riding dull miles in the cold & dark.

Amazing stuff Steve... Keep on going mate.

there needs to be (enormous amounts of) motivation, burning desire, willpower, persistence.  we can't really compare ourselves to Steve and Kurt as we can't see the world from their perspective. keep going Steve, keep going Kurt (nearly there!!)!

thank you Jo for this wonderful thread!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Laid Back Rich on November 09, 2015, 09:57:22 pm
thank you Jo for this wonderful thread!

+1  :thumbsup: brilliant

GO STEVE!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 11, 2015, 07:31:49 am
Day 313 / 94: Kurt rides east along the coast into Alabama being on much better form that the previous tough day, accumulating 215 miles. Steve also rides east with the benefit of a blustery autumn tailwind. He continues for 194 miles until he runs out of east, spending the night in Lowestoft. Miles is back to long rides, doing a couple of trips to Seymour to the north with 185 miles for the day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay313.png)

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 11, 2015, 07:32:01 am
Day 314 / 95: Kurt rides loops along the coast around Orange Beach flirting with the Florida border and a total of 207 miles for the day. Steve faces the prospect of returning west from Lowestoft into a day of strong headwinds, eventually getting back to Milton Keynes with 181 miles covered. Miles rides another trip up north for 120 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay314.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on November 11, 2015, 11:23:54 am
Good morning Jo. With the wet and windy weather of late,  how many days away is Steve away from the 206 mls average since the 8th August restart?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on November 11, 2015, 11:54:55 am
Arry-R, you can tell from the graph that Steve finished yesterday's ride about 90 miles behind the Godwin Line. 

If Steve were to get back to doing 210m days (4.34 miles more than the Godwin average), that would take him 90/4.34 = 21 days to catch back up.  If Steve were to do 215m days (9.34m more than the Godwin average), that would take him 90/9.34 = 10 days to catch back up.  With 220m days, he'd be back to the Godwin line within a week. 

Obviously over the past two days he has come up 25 and 12 miles short respectively, so he is currently having a little bit of slippage - carrying forward this rate of progress would only result in slipping further behind.  Hopefully the unhelpful weather will pass and allow Steve to eke out the mileage in the coming days.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on November 11, 2015, 12:40:47 pm
Furthermore, it seems that, now Kurt has just 60 days to run, it is possible to project a prediction for where the Searvogel Line could end up.  At best, one could take Kurt's consistent and impressive run from day 116 to day 220 to extract an average of 219.8mpd.  Adding 60 times this to his current 63066 gives a year-end total of 76255, for a 1190-mile beating of the Godwin record, setting the Searvogel Line at 208.9mpd.  Of course, even on good days Kurt isn't quite doing 219.8mpd at the moment, so it is probably appropriate to ignore any 'finishing sprint effect' and consider this an upper limit on what is now achievable.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on November 11, 2015, 01:00:05 pm
An upper limit of 1190 miles about Tommy's figure.  Less than 3 miles a day.  Damn, this challenge is a cruel mistress.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on November 11, 2015, 03:16:03 pm
Legs many thanks for your posting - much appreciated.
 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on November 11, 2015, 06:29:53 pm
I would not be in the least surprised if Kurt, once he passes Godwin, has a rest and takes it fairly easy for the last few days after the record has gone. The objective is taking the World Record, and he has a great chance of doing that now (with all the usual provisos). Having said that, his decidedly fed up mental state of a week or two ago seems to have gone. He could well feel extremely upbeat once he's done it and put in a massive finish. Who knows? Top class competitors in any field do as much damage to an opponent's chances as they possibly can.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 11, 2015, 06:42:39 pm
I would not be in the least surprised if Kurt, once he passes Godwin, has a rest and takes it fairly easy for the last few days after the record has gone.

I would. His average over the last 28 days has been 198.7 mpd. If he were to continue that for the remains of the challenge, he will hit the Godwin line on the very last day of his year (9th Jan 2016). Maybe his average will go up as he hits the Florida home straight, but unless something [even more] remarkable happens, he will be hitting the Godwin line in the last day or two of the challenge. Even if he managed an incredible 220 mpd for the next two months, he still be in the last week when he crosses the Godwin line.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on November 11, 2015, 06:46:58 pm
That nicely illustrates how far away Kurt still is from bagging it.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: marcusjb on November 11, 2015, 07:04:00 pm
Truly amazing and I can not imagine the pressure Kurt is now really under.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Shreds on November 11, 2015, 09:55:54 pm
I rather think he thrives on that pressure, just doesn't like the wind and the rain.

Hope he settles down to his regular 220+ mpd now he is back in the Sunshine State.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 12, 2015, 09:34:31 am
Day 315 / 96: Kurt rides Pensacola Beach surrounded by white sand and blue sea for a reported 226 miles (although nothing uploaded to Strava yet). Steve has a longer than usual day riding a figure of eight through the counties of SE England and accumulating 246 miles. This takes him back to within 50 miles of WR pace after a week with some shorter windy days. Miles heads out west to Warrnambool for 160 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay315.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 12, 2015, 04:45:02 pm
There was a request for the OYTT Eddington Numbers of the three riders on one of the other threads, so here they are with a graphical summary:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/eddingtonSteve.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/eddingtonKurt.png)
(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/eddingtonMiles.png)

(Both Steve's and Miles's charts include all rides in 2015, not just their most recent rebooted attempt)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Sea of vapours on November 12, 2015, 04:48:46 pm
'Twas I, and whilst my purely numerical calculation gave the same numbers, that's a very pleasing visualisation (but of course). Thanks!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on November 12, 2015, 04:49:53 pm
Another great visualisation. Kurt's consistency really stands out on that chart, in that the slope of the curve to the right of the E line is steep and the curve to the left turns sharply.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: bryn on November 12, 2015, 06:09:08 pm
Instead of looking at graphs, to visualise Steve's amazing achievements, on Saturday I set off at 04:30 and rode 326km due North to Stockport.

<snipped>

That was a superb bit of writing Lee (not to mention the riding) and deserves to be widely read.

I haven't seen another post which so well illustrates the challenge.

 Thanks for that.

Bryn
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mothy on November 12, 2015, 06:31:01 pm
Thanks Jo

Another great graph that tells a story.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on November 12, 2015, 06:32:39 pm
Clearly I'm the only stupid person here, so can someone explain those Eddington number graphs to me.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 12, 2015, 06:54:12 pm
You have an Eddington number E if you have ridden E days covering at least E miles. So for example, if you had an Eddington number of 75 it would mean you have ridden at least 75 miles on 75 separate days (sorry, you probably knew that already, but it helps with the explanation below).

The charts show the number of days (vertically) in which each of the riders have ridden at least a given distance (indicated by horizontal position). Using Steve an example, the line starts off high on the left hand side because he has had around 300 days when he has at least ridden 1 mile. It remains quite high towards the left because he has also had around 300 days when he has ridden at least 25 miles. The line starts to drop as the distance ridden in a day before it is counted increases. So for example, there have only been around 10 days when he has ridden at least 250 miles.

The diagonal grey line represents the 'Eddington line' because it joins all the points where the minimum distance ridden matches the number of days that has occurred (all the Es). That allows you to see a rider's Eddington number as it is where their own line intersects that diagonal.

The point made by SimonP above was about the shape of the curve made by each rider as you can imagine different archetypical riding styles. A super-consistent rider who rode 200 miles every day would have a rectangular shape where from left to right they would have at 200 days of at least 1, 2, 3,...200 mile rides and then 0 days of 201 miles or more. Kurt is showing something approaching this kind of profile. In contrast a rider who had a lot of variation in the length of rides they do would have a curve that gradually fell as it moved right (they'd have many days of at least 1 mile, a few less of at least 10 miles, fewer still of at least 50 miles etc). Miles shows this kind of profile.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Shreds on November 12, 2015, 07:34:35 pm
As ever Jo, a very clear and concise explanation.

Your commentaries are key to making the OYTT interesting for the armchair readers.....many thanks. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on November 12, 2015, 07:42:37 pm
Thanks for the explanation Jo.

I think what was confusing me was the horizontal axis being called "Distance exceeded". Why the word "exceeded" and not simply "ridden" or "covered" or similar?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on November 12, 2015, 07:46:00 pm
Because a 200-mile day is counted in the 195 tally, the 153 mile tally, and the 1mile tally. He "exceeded" 153miles on that day.He also exceeded 195 miles.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 12, 2015, 09:05:51 pm
Here's how their Eddington Numbers have developed over the year

https://vimeo.com/145562182
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ham on November 12, 2015, 09:08:40 pm
That is brilliant, thanks, and shows Steve's "slopey bit" to be while he was recovering from the broken ankle.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: HTFB on November 12, 2015, 10:46:16 pm
If you were feeling really kind to the lazy, you could include the Eddington graph for Godwin himself. Kurt has already passed the E-number of Tommy Godwin's Steady Ghost, but is he ahead of Tommy? Eyeballing from the annual progress graph Tommy looks to have been below one Godwin for his first 120-odd and last 40-odd days, so it must be pretty close.

To find Steve's maximum possible Eddington number with 50 days to go, you can rule a line parallel to the diagonal, passing through the 50 mile point on the X axis. It looks to me as though he'll at best be just below 205, while Kurt (with 60 to go) could get to 215 or more---if he can ride 215 miles every day without fail...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on November 12, 2015, 11:51:45 pm
Because a 200-mile day is counted in the 195 tally, the 153 mile tally, and the 1mile tally. He "exceeded" 153miles on that day.He also exceeded 195 miles.

Matt, can you - or anyone else - talk me through this very slowly after the AGM?

:)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: simonp on November 13, 2015, 12:31:24 am
The vertical axis represents the number of days the rider rode at least the number of miles on the corresponding point on the horizontal axis.

Let's say you rode one day and rode 1 mile. So you have a single point on the graph. The next day you ride 2 miles. So you have 2 days on which you rode at least 1 mile. And one day on which you rode 2 miles.

The graph would be very small and would look like this:


|.
|. .
+--

 So each time you ride a given distance all the points to the left of that on the chart are pushed up by 1. In Jo's elegant representation, the Eddington number is then found at the intersection of the plotted curve and the 45 degree line i.e. y=x. Let's say our rider rides 5 miles the next day.

|.
|. .
|. . . . .
+-------

Now there are one days on which he has done at least 3,4 or 5 miles. Two days on which he has done 2 miles or more. And three days on which he's done 1 mile or more. And the Eddington number is 2 which you can find by tracing the diagonal.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on November 13, 2015, 04:13:45 am
Very nicely put!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 13, 2015, 07:24:17 am
Day 316 / 97: Kurt moves away from the gulf coast heading 206 miles east to Tallahassee at a faster pace than of late. He is currently about 400 miles above the Godwin line. Steve has another day duelling with autumnal winds looping around the wider Cambridge area and back in home for bed after 201 miles. Miles completes his tip from Camperdown out to the west back towards Melbourne for 83 miles at a slower pace than normal.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay316.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 13, 2015, 08:00:37 am
If you were feeling really kind to the lazy, you could include the Eddington graph for Godwin himself. Kurt has already passed the E-number of Tommy Godwin's Steady Ghost, but is he ahead of Tommy? Eyeballing from the annual progress graph Tommy looks to have been below one Godwin for his first 120-odd and last 40-odd days, so it must be pretty close.

Here you go...

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/eddingtonAll.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: HTFB on November 13, 2015, 08:43:28 am
Thank you. Well done Kurt, already holder of the all-time* calendar year Eddington record!

Another way to interpret this graph, and particularly the video, is that the area represents total distance travelled so far. The left hand edge rises remorselessly each day through the year till you run out of time; the longer your ride, the more of the whole line you push upwards.


*barring some truly improbable ride patterns from the other contenders in the 30s. They'd have to have been even more consistent than Kurt, except for a hundred days virtually taken off.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on November 13, 2015, 08:57:46 am
To put these numbers in context I wonder if anyone apart from TG on this forum has a lifetime Eddington number >150 miles
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 13, 2015, 09:22:25 am
I have the data for the other historical challengers and it doesn't look like any of them would come close, but I'll check more thoroughly tonight and possibly graph them all up.

In comparison to chasing the Godwin line, the nice thing about the Eddington number is that once you've got it you can never lose it. If they change they can only ever increase over time.

(I've also updated the vimeo animation above to show Godwin's evolving progress too).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ivo on November 13, 2015, 09:52:44 am
To put these numbers in context I wonder if anyone apart from TG on this forum has a lifetime Eddington number >150 miles

Maybe a few, those who've been audaxing at serious level for at least 25 years.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on November 13, 2015, 10:11:47 am
I think HK might be close to that 200 number. I've almost certainly not ridden enough 300+km days yet. There will be others who have made it but it'll have taken decades.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ivo on November 13, 2015, 10:16:14 am
I think HK might be close to that 200 number. I've almost certainly not ridden enough 300+km days yet. There will be others who have made it but it'll have taken decades.

Ian H might be another candidate.
I need a few more years before I hit the 150, 200 is firmly out of reach (at least imperial)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on November 13, 2015, 10:47:26 am
To put these numbers in context I wonder if anyone apart from TG on this forum has a lifetime Eddington number >150 miles

<Vincent_Price Barry_Clayton>
Woe to you, oh earth and sea
For the Devil sends the Kurt with wrath
Because he knows that time is short
Let him who hath understanding
Reckon the number of the Kurt
For it is an Eddington number
And its number is two hundred and five
Er, two hundred and six
Um, two hundred and seven
Sod this
Anyone fancy a pint?
</Barry_Clayton>
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LEE on November 13, 2015, 11:12:32 am
To put these numbers in context I wonder if anyone apart from TG on this forum has a lifetime Eddington number >150 miles

I expect there are several with E=125 because that would equate to 200km Audax rides.

The problem with Eddington of course is that absolutely none of those hard-won 125 * 200km Audax rides count towards an E=150.

150 miles is 241km, a rather odd distance.  I reckon anyone approaching E=150 has bagged a load of 300km Audaxes, which would set them up for E=186*

* Just the non-trivial matter of riding 186 * 300km Audaxes.


I'm a year or two from E=100.  I know that's not even special compared to many people on this forum but it's still taken some doing.  I was thinking of having an "E=100" jersey made.

If I had E=200 then I'd have a jersey made, an illuminated hat made, a personalised reg plate made and possibly have it projected on the front of my house as well. E=200 puts you into an exclusive club.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Justin(e) on November 13, 2015, 11:37:28 am
If I had E=200 then I'd have a jersey made, an illuminated hat made, a personalised reg plate made and possibly have it projected on the front of my house as well. E=200 puts you into an exclusive club.

Yerbut - E numbers have units.

So I easily have a E of 200 if the units are meters.

Just finished reading about Eddington and his numbers here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Eddington#Eddington_number_for_cycling).  Couldn't find any description on the this site.  It all seemed a little too Mornington Crescent.

But despite all of that - absolutely beautiful graphs (once I had my head around it).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: HTFB on November 13, 2015, 11:45:33 am
The Wikipedia article misrepresents the dependency of the E-number on units. Since an E-number is a simple count it is a pure number, unit-free. But what you count is unit-dependent: classical E-numbers could be denoted Emileride or Emileday.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: drgannet on November 13, 2015, 01:31:03 pm
Thank you for the excellent graphs Jo. Just as a matter of curiosity, how do you define a day (finishes at midnight or when the rider goes to bed)?

(When I built a spreadsheet to calculate my own E a couple of years ago, I decided to define a day as finishing when I slept (probably not how Arthur Eddington did it, but it works for me). However, this was more pragmatic than anything, because for many of my rides involving night riding I have no idea what distance I was at at midnight.)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on November 13, 2015, 01:56:14 pm
There is a thread somewhere about this very issue. Eddington himself used the day and miles as his units. I think it is perfectly acceptable to include overnight rides,eg Dun Run.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 13, 2015, 02:12:01 pm
I've had to use midnight in the rider's local time zone to split rides. It's too complicated to do anything else, especially for Miles who has no consistent day/night pattern to his riding.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jochta on November 13, 2015, 02:17:00 pm
Inspired by Jo's magnificent visualisation of the Eddington numbers I had a go at recreating it in Google Sheets for my data. Pretty straightforward to do. I used the .csv datadump from VeloViewer to get all my rides then used MS Access to total up the daily mileages.

See it here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c3WkBdf4T9TsZ-mM254QHBsaqt7n4AguOxeTgJPxCBk/edit?usp=sharing
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 13, 2015, 02:25:12 pm
The helpful thing about visualising the distribution rather than just summarising with the Eddington Number is that is shows you where you need to put the effort in to increase it. Ideally what you want for least effort improvement is a nice shallow slope just to the right of the current Eddington number (as you have jochta). If you have a cliff like Kurt does, its harder to make significant gains in E.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jochta on November 13, 2015, 03:44:34 pm
Cool, thanks for that jochta.  I've graphed my running Eddington number and concluded that, from my current 15, 17 is easily achievable within the next year, 19 within the following marathon-training cycle, and I may well never get to 20!

(just a small point - the inequality in column F needs changing to a ">=", rather than just ">".  Otherwise, nothing shows up at the exciting moments when, so to speak, E=E+1  ;D)
(Edit to add: the same for the one in column E - I assume you want your 15.00 mile ride to contribute to E=15, and your 28.00 to E=28.  I don't normally log warming up and cooling down from races, so Strava or Veloviewer would (should) record a 10m race as 10.00 miles.  If it recorded it as 9.99, I would manually change it in the spreadsheet to 10!)

Well spotted. I meant to change that to >= but forgot  :-[
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on November 13, 2015, 07:38:52 pm
Just stumbled across the YACF Eddington thread https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=60586.0;topicseen

For some reason its invisible to the Search function, despite posts in the last week ???

I mention it as it would be very easy to swamp this thread with E-num meanderings!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: andyoxon on November 13, 2015, 10:19:45 pm
Inspired by Jo's magnificent visualisation of the Eddington numbers I had a go at recreating it in Google Sheets for my data. Pretty straightforward to do. I used the .csv datadump from VeloViewer to get all my rides then used MS Access to total up the daily mileages.

See it here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c3WkBdf4T9TsZ-mM254QHBsaqt7n4AguOxeTgJPxCBk/edit?usp=sharing

How did you generate the plot with (red) Edd line..?  :)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 14, 2015, 12:16:08 pm
Day 317 / 98: Kurt journeys for 217 miles though Florida from Tallahassee south east towards the start his challenge in January. Steve passes the 20,000 mile reboot milestone on another Cambridgeshire loop in windy conditions completing 195 miles for the day. Nothing posted from Miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay317.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 15, 2015, 09:16:56 am
Day 318 / 99: Kurt spends the day on the Withalcohee trail in mid-Florida for some welcome relief from motor traffic and 210 miles added to his total. Steve facing yet another week of autumnal weather first heads into the wind riding to the Cotswolds then about turns with the wind all the way to Peterborough for a 222 mile day. Nothing again from Miles today.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay318.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 15, 2015, 09:19:49 am
Here are the average moving speeds of the three riders over the last few months:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/movingSpeed2015_11_14.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 16, 2015, 11:52:51 am
Day 319 / 100: Miles announces his retirement from the official UMCA HAM'R citing 'prior problems' and 'recent events'. Nevertheless he his efforts have involved riding over 27,320 miles in 8 months, which only a tiny proportion of people have ever achieved making this a considerable achievement.

Kurt has a good day boosted by some company on the road and clocking up 235 miles on the Withalochee trail and Flatwoods area. Steve has a somewhat tougher one heading back from Peterborough's Audax AGM meet to MK into 177 miles of headwind. This leaves him around 80 below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay319.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: toontra on November 16, 2015, 01:43:40 pm
Construct a spreadsheet of days and distances with day No. 1 in Row 1.
Sort on distance high to low.
Where distance is less than or equal to the Row No., that’s the E number.

Tomorrow, enter distance in next available Row and Sort again on distance, high to low. Check if E number has increased.

So far this year, my E number is 36.

Last year was 39.

2013 was 40.

2012 was 39.

2011 was 36.

Er... this all seems a bit OT.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Shreds on November 16, 2015, 03:00:59 pm
Can the Eddington posts not be split from Jo's excellent commentary on the current attempts?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Whitedown Man on November 16, 2015, 05:40:24 pm
At my request the mods have already moved the earlier Eddington posts to the main Eddington thread (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=60586.msg1945766#msg1945766), but new ones have started to be posted here again. Could I suggest that Ningishzidda and Whitedown Man copy their posts to that thread then delete them from this one?

* This message will (hopefully) self destruct once you have moved your posts *

Done  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on November 17, 2015, 07:00:05 am
Deleted.
Is it possible for Jo to have exclusive rights to this thread?

Another 'comment' thread can be started.

Its so easy to get carried away  ;)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 17, 2015, 07:12:29 am
(I certainly don't want exclusive write rights to this thread. I think discussion on the progress of the OYTTers based on what the visualisation reveals or prompts is interesting and valuable.)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 17, 2015, 07:20:08 am
Day 320 / 101: Kurt does 28 repeats of a loop through Flatwoods with friends providing welcome relief from motor traffic and and 228 miles. He's now over 460 miles above the Godwin line. Steve heads though the Chilterns for a visit to Amersham and a shorter, hilly and windy day. His 147 miles leaves him around 140 miles below WR pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay320.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ham on November 17, 2015, 08:08:35 am

Is it possible for Jo to have exclusive rights to this thread?


Given the 300+ days of much appreciated effort Jo has  put into it and the number of people who start here to understand the progress of the protagonists, yes.

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 18, 2015, 07:01:05 am
Day 321 / 102: Kurt repeats his repeats of yesterday looping through Flatwoods with friends for an impressive 241 miles. His recent progress is lifting him away from the Godwin line, having gained 100 miles in the last week now to sit at 500 miles ahead of WR pace. Steve faces some of the toughest weather since last winter with very strong winds. He heads to Cirencester and the comparatively sheltered if hilly Cotswolds for a 170 mile day. He is currently around 170 miles below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay321.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Frank9755 on November 18, 2015, 08:48:33 am
The last few days remind us how much steeper the snakes are than the ladders on this event.  Steve will have fought very hard for those 170 miles yesterday but the scoreboard shows that a few days of windy weather has undone all the progress he had made vs Godwin in the last 7 weeks. 
And, as we all know, there will be more bad weather to come. 
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: againsttheclock on November 18, 2015, 09:26:45 am
The last few days remind us how much steeper the snakes are than the ladders on this event.  Steve will have fought very hard for those 170 miles yesterday but the scoreboard shows that a few days of windy weather has undone all the progress he had made vs Godwin in the last 7 weeks. 
And, as we all know, there will be more bad weather to come.

The interesting, other side of this is - what will Steve be capable of in his final couple of months as weather improves drastically through May, June & July?  He didn’t get a fair crack of the whip after being knocked off and through the summer was clearly not at 100% capacity. This time around, all being well, even if he’s as much as a couple of thousand miles behind at halfway, would it be unreasonable to expect a similar run to Kurt’s ~230 mile average at his best for a few weeks to make up the deficit?

Very much early days still I guess, the main challenge for the next 3-4 months(!) is to stay close enough to the line without worrying about being below it I guess.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on November 18, 2015, 10:55:21 am
It is, as we all know, a massively tall order. Ice, wind, rain and darkness all add to the challenge. Add it the random factor of drunk moped riders and it's clear that even if Steve manages to avoid mishaps/stumbles related to any of them, he's still got to keep physically fit enough to be able to knock out at least 215/220 miles per day when the weather does take a turn for the better. Realistically, pretty well any day he hits or passes a Godwin between now and the end of February is going to be a massive bonus.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on November 19, 2015, 06:44:30 am
The word that explains most is ‘Cotswolds’. Been there, done that and progress is V slow. Slow up hills and not fast enough to catch up time down the hills. The real disadvantage is the motorists there ( being neighbours of Jeremy Clarkson ) think its their god given right to knock down cyclists. Plus Gloucs. Council have done next to nothing about the potted roads, so slower descents are necessary.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 20, 2015, 09:23:44 am
Trivial fact of the day: This thread has just passed 75,065 views.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: ianrauk on November 20, 2015, 09:43:57 am
And well deserved Jo. Thanks for your graphs.

Any updates for yesterday?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 20, 2015, 09:44:39 am
Day 322 / 103: Kurt sticks to central Florida passing through the appealingly named Green Swamp Wilderness. Some minor GPS problems don't prevent him from accumulating another 222.3 miles. Poor weather continues for Steve, although he largely benefits from a wind assisted trip to the Norfolk coast also for exactly 222.3 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay322.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 20, 2015, 09:52:48 am
Day 323 / 104: Another 220 mile day for Kurt as he rides north to the east Florida coast at St Augustine. He is now within a gnat's whisker of overtaking Bernard Bennet's 1939 record of 65,127 miles. Steve battles his way back from Great Yarmouth to Milton Keynes. For every tailwind there is an unequal and opposite headwind. He eventually makes it home at 1:40am with 185 miles leaving him around 180 miles below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay323.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: road-runner on November 20, 2015, 10:36:30 am
Comment no longer relevant.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 20, 2015, 10:39:10 am
Miles? Kilometres? What's the difference?

(Thanks and duly edited.)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on November 21, 2015, 12:22:15 am
JO  many thanks for all updates. Needless to say we're all sorry he has slipped that distance behind the Godwin Line.  It will be interesting to see his mileage at end of 7th December 4 months or 1/3 Rd year into new attempt.
 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on November 21, 2015, 02:26:50 am
Miles? Kilometres? What's the difference?

"Quite a lot" - M Smith, Australia
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 22, 2015, 09:57:58 am
Day 324 / 105: Kurt rides 216 miles back to the Green Swamp Wilderness (plus/minus 10 miles or so subject to GPS problems) and in the process passes Bernard Bennett's 1939 record. Only Tommy's distance to beat now. With a forecasted change in wind direction over the weekend, Steve heads north to Goole. He finds the going tough after a difficult week of windy, wet and cold weather, managing 185 miles before bedding down.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay324.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 22, 2015, 10:05:14 am
Day 325 / 106: Kurt rides through the Witlacoochee Forest a couple of times ending the day with 213 miles. Steve makes the journey back from Goole via a detour north to the Humber and a late evening snooze stop, eventually covering 198 miles before getting home to MK.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay325.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: swampthing on November 22, 2015, 04:58:21 pm
I am a german cyclist following the HAMR with much interest and quite thoroughly. Having read the Tommy-Godwin-Section on YACF for months now, I like to say thank you for lots of informative and helpful input (especially for this thread, Jo!) (Unfortunetaly, there seems to be much less interest in this fascinating competition in Germany.)

Why do I show up here now? I hope that my observations/ calculations on Steve Abraham’s performance on the HAMR as presented below might be of interest here:

According to the data from the UMCA’s “official results”-file (which were last updated at the end of october so that I add Steve’s Strava-entries for november) Steve’s mileage was (the UMCA-data slightly deviates from Jo’s):

1) January 1st – March 28th 2015 (= A1 as figured below).
Steve has ridden an average of 185 miles/ day in January and 191 in February. His mileage from March 1st till 28th, the day before he was hit by a moped-rider, was close to 205 miles/ day (=almost WR-pace, WR-pace = 205,7 miles/ day).
That meant he was about 1.050 miles behind WR-pace on March 28th.

2) August 8th – November 21st 2015 (= A2 as figured below).
During his 2nd attempt, starting on August 8th, Steve did 204 miles/ day till November 21st. That means he lost about 220 miles compared to WR-pace during his 2nd attempt.

3) June 2nd – July 11th 2015 (= Summer as figured below).
Steve’s best time so far ranged from June 2nd till July 11th. His average was 219 miles/ day during this period of 40 days, which translates into gaining about 550 miles on WR-pace.

If I put these numbers together and add the following assumptions:
1) 219 miles/ day is what can be expected under good (=spring/ summer) conditions (= H1 as figured below). He can sustain 219 mile/ day for about 130 days!
2) 191 miles/ day is representative for bad (=December) conditions (= H2 as figured below). 191/ miles day is assumed to be the average from November 22nd till December 31st.

then I get this picture of a year’s mileage (about 130 summer days at 219 and 40 December-days at 191 miles):

(http://up.picr.de/23780855mf.jpg)

This visualization suggests that Steve Abraham might end up very close to Tommy Godwin’s 75.065 miles. Close, but he might stay below.

My conclusions:
1) Steve’s performance has to improve at least slightly in order to avoid falling short of the Godwin-line by just a few miles.
2) There is hardly any buffer for bad weather/ bad health/ bad … A successful attempt is reliant on favorable conditions.
3) I wish him luck and I hope he does not burn out hunting a realistic but very tight goal.

Putting the picture above into another timeline (starting on 8th August) shows that Steve might face a backlog of up to about 1.900 miles (at the end of March) that he has to chase. While the result stays the same (= very close to WR-pace) it shows that he might face a long process of catching up.
(http://up.picr.de/23780854nq.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Shreds on November 22, 2015, 09:40:25 pm
Thank you swampthing, really interesting to hear how these attempts are viewed in Continental Europe. You beautifully elucidate, in graphics, thoughts that I have had for a little while:

I don't like making comparisons, but it is noticeable that whereas Kurt seems to aim at around 220-230ish mpd, Steve aims at 200-207. Clearly there are good days and bad days from both riders when they exceed or are short on these figures. Add to that seasonality, obviously with Kurt having seemingly more flexibility  with the size of the States, although I can see why Steve might not want to do more miles in Europe.

But it would seem that by having a larger buffer, it allows for flexibility if required.

Now don't get me wrong, both of them are phenomenal athletes and are banging out huge, huge mileages on a daily basis that I could never replicate, (I have knocked out 250 mile days but needed a week to recuperate)  ;) but it does make you think that by strategising a buffer into the equation, makes a lot of sense.

Maybe we will just have to wait for the better weather, so that Steve can build up that buffer, meanwhile I have every confidence that Kurt will not slow down now until he passes his HAMR goal.

Chapeau to you both, Steve and Kurt :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on November 23, 2015, 06:56:31 am
Nice analysis.  Although it is one scenario out of several. 

Steve always said that he would ease into the longer miles when he started on 1 Jan.  So assuming he will follow a similar daily mileage in 2016 is possibly pessimistic.

The limiting factor for Steve is likely to be the weather.  A mild winter and he will probably recover to the Godwin line come Spring. A harsh winter and he may be so far behind that it will be very difficult to recover.  I'm not going to suggest impossible, because whilst riding more than 220miles a day, for extended periods, looks unlikely in truth we've only got two data samples (Kurt, who is older, and Steve, who broke his ankle).

But a nice analysis, that shows that Steve is potentially walking the tightrope as a breeze picks up.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 23, 2015, 10:53:48 am
Day 326 / 107: Kurt heads south towards Tampa for a rainy morning then spends the remains of the day doing loops of Flatwood park, all in for a total of 217 miles. This leaves him around 560 miles above the Godwin line. Steve does a 189 mile Cambridgeshire loop via Peterborough and Ely in colder but generally drier and less windy conditions. He finishes a little earlier than of late in order to regain some lost sleep. He is currently around 240 miles below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay326.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on November 23, 2015, 12:58:07 pm
Interesting looking at the whole graphic - even with all his problems this year, it looks likely that Steve will beat Bernard Benett's 65,127 miles for the calendar year, which will put him third highest-mileage ever after Tommy and Kurt. That's pretty amazing!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Shreds on November 23, 2015, 05:51:10 pm
Interesting looking at the whole graphic - even with all his problems this year, it looks likely that Steve will beat Bernard Benett's 65,127 miles for the calendar year, which will put him third highest-mileage ever after Tommy and Kurt. That's pretty amazing!

+1 :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 23, 2015, 06:27:19 pm
It's not a foregone conclusion that Steve will  pass Bennett's record. He'll need to average around 196.2 mpd or more to do this by Dec 31st. His average for the last week has been 182.3, so a fair bit short. Hopefully, Steve will catch up on lost sleep and the weather will be a little more accommodating than of late to allow him to up his mileage again.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on November 23, 2015, 07:01:32 pm
looking at the visual, if Kurt keeps his current mileages until the end it's possible to reach 76,650 miles which would raise the bar to 210mpd for future attempts (who would dare?!..)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on November 23, 2015, 08:03:38 pm
It's not a foregone conclusion that Steve will  pass Bennett's record. He'll need to average around 196.2 mpd or more to do this by Dec 31st. His average for the last week has been 182.3, so a fair bit short. Hopefully, Steve will catch up on lost sleep and the weather will be a little more accommodating than of late to allow him to up his mileage again.

I didn't mean to suggest that it was a foregone conclusion. I did afterwards think that 'likely' was perhaps a little strong - but allow me a little optimism on Steve's behalf!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on November 23, 2015, 09:02:49 pm
I would imagine that Steve is very aware of these landmarks along the way, and I would have thought that they are a means of keeping his motivation going. The whole thing reminds me of the Total Perspective Vortex in THHGTTG. You have to keep the entire year-long target out of your mind and break it down into manageable chunks. At least, that's my way of dealing with a challenging ride. he may have BB's target in his sights as a way of keeping the miles up in the last two months of this year.

Of course, someone like Steve could well be the cycling equivalent of Zaphod Beeblebrox and not be daunted by such ideas!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Laid Back Rich on November 23, 2015, 09:36:22 pm
looking at the visual, if Kurt keeps his current mileages until the end it's possible to reach 76,650 miles which would raise the bar to 210mpd for future attempts (who would dare?!..)

go on Rimas go for it, you know you want to!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on November 23, 2015, 09:56:49 pm
i dream about the exciting challenges, hills, mountains, scenery, speed!.. this one is the complete opposite; good luck to all the challengers.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: StevieB on November 23, 2015, 11:26:43 pm
Interesting looking at the whole graphic... 
Kurt is still 600 miles behind Tommy Godwin, so no let-up!

(Got to spare some admiration for the original.)

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on November 24, 2015, 12:00:02 am
. His average for the last week has been 182.3, so a fair bit short. Hopefully, Steve will catch up on lost sleep and the weather will be a little more accommodating than of late to allow him to up his mileage again.
[/quote]


Let's hope so but winter is coming so mileage is not going to
Increase is it? ??  Wish it would but won't happen
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Shreds on November 24, 2015, 06:30:15 am
Interesting looking at the whole graphic... 
Kurt is still 600 miles behind Tommy Godwin, so no let-up!

(Got to spare some admiration for the original.)

Actually, because Godwin's early months were so far below his ultimate WR line, a lot of the time spent above the line was compensating for lower than average miles in those early stages. Godwin also tailed off at the end.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think Kurt's year profile is quite so far at variance with the WR average line?

Admittedly still a long way to go, but at least he can hopefully now see light at the end of the tunnel.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on November 24, 2015, 06:50:46 am
. His average for the last week has been 182.3, so a fair bit short. Hopefully, Steve will catch up on lost sleep and the weather will be a little more accommodating than of late to allow him to up his mileage again.


Let's hope so but winter is coming so mileage is not going to
Increase is it? ??  Wish it would but won't happen
[/quote]

IMHO its much harder to knock out long miles in the cold. Apart from the drag factor of extra clothing on the legs and extra weight, it takes longer to get dressed, you burn more calories just keeping warm which means more food stops, there is simply the fact that muscles don't work so well in the cold.  My 100 mile ride at the weekend was about 1mph below par from my form the previous weekend, simply because I started at -1C rather than +13.  Steve factored this into his original plans to do more miles in the summer than the winter, rather than be consistent throughout the year, as Kurt has done with the advantage of being able to go down to Florida for mild winter weather (and longer days).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: DaveE128 on November 24, 2015, 03:19:32 pm
I too suspect he will struggle through the winter, but being optimistic, hopefully Steve's mileages will go up quite a lot come spring time...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 24, 2015, 08:55:38 pm
Day 327 / 108: Kurt does loops of Flatwoods park, 27 of them, in colder and windier conditions than of late. He covers 210 miles for the day taking him up to 565 miles above the Godwin line. Steve has to deal with sub-zero temperatures as he does another Cambridgeshire loop. Following nutritional advice he is changing his feeding regime and so feels weak while his body adapts. A day's total of 157 miles leaves him around 290 below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay327.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 26, 2015, 08:23:42 am
Day 328 /109: More loops through Flatwoods Park for Kurt as he rides in windy conditions on his recumbent for around 220 miles. Steve continues to adjust to a new diet which, although more sustainable in the long term, means he is struggling to keep up his speed and daily distance while his body adapts. He rides north for an overnight stop in Lincoln with 147 miles on the clock.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay328.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 26, 2015, 08:23:58 am
Day 329 /110: A long day for Kurt as he adds further 251 miles of riding round Flatwoods Park. He is now around 620 miles above Godwin's world record pace and with the possibility of taking the record within 2015. Steve makes the return from Lincoln to MK still adjusting to a new diet. His 159 mile ride leaves him around 400 miles, or two days, behind the Godwin pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay329.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 27, 2015, 03:27:46 pm
Day 330 / 111: Kurt rides up and down the Withlacoochee trial for just over one Godwin. Steve does another Cambridgeshire loop in slightly better weather but continuing adaptations to his new diet limits his speed and distance to 151 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay330.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 28, 2015, 09:11:40 am
Day 331 / 112: More Withlacoochee fun for kurt as he adds another 209 miles to his ever nearer WR total. Steve rides another Cambridgeshireshire loop finishing late, but with a slightly faster pace and 178 miles suggesting he might be on the way up after his diet adjustment.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay331.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 29, 2015, 11:42:50 am
Day 332 / 113: Kurt rides southward down to Flatwoods Park where he repeats loops to bring his day's total to 217 miles. Steve faces yet more strong winds while having to keep his exertion down as his body adapts to a new diet, eventually accumulating 145 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay332.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: drgannet on November 30, 2015, 09:21:05 pm
Just noticed that the HAMR spreadsheet & ride log result for 9th Nov for Steve is 22.8km (Strava has 312.2km). Do these things get corrected automatically or do you tend flag erroneous data to HAMR Jo? (I guess it should be the responsibility of crew chief?).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 01, 2015, 07:52:03 am
I don't normally flag erroneous data to HAMR as these tend to become corrected over time. It's worth keeping an eye out for problems though in case they don't appear to get resolved.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 01, 2015, 07:52:23 am
Day 333 / 114: Kurt spends the day doing many loops of Flatwood park some in company of fast riders and others alone. By the end of the day he accumulates 236 miles. Steve, starting the day at Barton Mills rides SW back to Milton Keynes largely with the wind. A short day of 150 miles in preparation for an anticipated longer day tomorrow.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay333.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 01, 2015, 07:52:38 am
Day 334 / 115: Another day and another 26 laps of Flatwoods Park and another 221 miles for Kurt. Steve has a troublesome day. As his adjustment to his new diet continues, he plans for a long day riding NE before the wind picks up and then riding with the wind for the majority of the day. But technical difficulties with his heart rate monitor and GPS means he starts much later than anticipated and faces his toughest day of the challenge so far, riding into a brutal headwind. He calls it a day after 93 miles to allow recovery before a planned long day tomorrow.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay334.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 02, 2015, 07:40:21 am
Day 335 / 116: 211 miles of laps of Flatwoods for Kurt  takes him to around 690 miles above the Godwin line. Steve shows significant recovery from difficulties around his diet change managing 188 Cambridgeshire miles in continuing windy conditions. This leaves him around 725 miles below Godwin's pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay335.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on December 02, 2015, 12:48:45 pm
JO  thanks for including the mileage of Steve below the Godwin Line. We look forward In due course to it being the other way come early spring +
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hillbilly on December 02, 2015, 01:27:06 pm
Steve will be doing well to have maintained the differential at 750 miles come early spring, let alone return to the averaging 205.7mpd.

Steve is fast approaching the furthest behind the Godwin average that Kurt reached (and which Kurt hit earlier in his challenge, so had more time to make up the difference). 

I read this as meaning that Steve has more to do than Kurt did at the same point in his challenge, and he has to ride through an uncertain winter (at the same point, Kurt was just entering spring/summer).

It's also looking touch-and-go whether Steve will overtake Bernard Bennett's mark from the 1/Jan start attempt (this had looked on for a while).  The longer he takes to adapt to diet and weather, the less likely this looks (he can just about do it with daily Godwins).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on December 02, 2015, 01:42:14 pm
In other words, it's "squeaky bum time".  :-\  Let's pray/cross our fingers for a clement winter.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 03, 2015, 11:23:23 pm
Day 336 / 117: Kurt relieves the boredom of loops of Flatwoods and instead rides NE to St Augustine on the east coast. A couple of punctures don't stop him completing 212 miles for the day. Steve has yet more wind to deal with as he rides and east-west loop through southern Cambs and Essex for 178 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay336.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 04, 2015, 07:55:33 am
Day 337 / 118: Kurt sticks the Florida east coast riding south though Orlando towards Palm Beach with some rain but helpful tailwind for a day's total of 225 miles. He is now around 715 miles above the Godwin line. Steve has a planned short day, although technical problems force him to start later than anticipated. He loops to the south west, including a Marsh Gibbon visit and ends the day with 138 miles and around 820 below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay337.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Basil on December 04, 2015, 05:16:03 pm
This has probably come up before but obv I missed it.  Sorry.
On what date did Tommy pass the previous record?   How long was he riding in the knowledge that the record was his and every mile now was a bonus? 
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Shreds on December 04, 2015, 05:51:33 pm
This has probably come up before but obv I missed it.  Sorry.
On what date did Tommy pass the previous record?   How long was he riding in the knowledge that the record was his and every mile now was a bonus?

According to 'The Year' book, 26th October 1939, passing Bernard Bennett's 65,127
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Citizenfish on December 04, 2015, 06:31:40 pm
You mean Nicholson's 62,657
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Shreds on December 04, 2015, 06:59:57 pm
Oops. I bow to your greater research and authority on the matter, Citizenfish.   :-[
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 05, 2015, 09:33:08 pm
Day 338 / 119: Kurt heads back to the west Florida coast at Sarasota ending the day with a few repeats of the last stretch to make it 225 miles. Steve starts early, heading west into yet another brutal headwind. He finishes the day early at the Severn View services overlooking the Welsh border. At a 145 miles he is now around 880 miles below Godwin pace but set up nicely for return with the wind over the weekend.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay338.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 06, 2015, 05:27:31 pm
Day 339 / 120: Kurt is back doing loops of Flatwood park, today's windy conditions allowing him to do 211 miles of them. For the first time in many many days Steve gets a long tailwind from the Severn to the Norfolk Broads. His day's total of 233 miles leaves him around 850 miles below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay339.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 07, 2015, 07:04:39 am
Day 340 / 121: Kurt is towed around the Flatwood Park circuit by some fast riders for most of the day followed by an evening ride with Alicia. In total an impressive 247 miles takes him around 765 miles above the Godwin line and only 235 miles behind Tommy's like-for-like ride distance. Steve has a late start intending to miss the worst of the headwind as he heads back from Acle to Milton Keynes via the north Norfolk coast. He heads home with 158 miles on the clock by midnight but a few more in store for the following 24 hours.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay340.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 08, 2015, 09:15:29 am
Day 341 / 122: More laps of Flatwood Park for Kurt, some with fast company, most without, giving him a day's total of 215 miles edging him ever closer to Tommy's like-for-like distance. Steve does an Essex there-and-back-again for 183 miles including the last section of the previous night's ride. He is now within a day of the 60,000 milestone and around a week to ten days from Rene Menzies' 1937 record.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay341.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: drgannet on December 08, 2015, 02:41:05 pm
He is now within a day of the 60,000 milestone and around a week to ten days from Rene Menzies' 1937 record.


Although Steve has a lot of work to do to stand a chance of breaking Tommy's (soon to be Kurt's) record, when you think about Jo's summary statement it is a truly increadible achievement, having suffered a double break in his ankle with weeks off the bike. One of my favourite German words is highly appropriate in this instance, unglaublich (or even better, ganz unglaublich)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Shreds on December 08, 2015, 09:40:26 pm
Dont know what todays issue was, but it is becoming of concern to keep being at below the TG line daily mileages. Ok it is only a few extra miles per day in the summer months, and last weeks winds were appalling but we don't know what the conditions will be like in 2016 or what else may crop up.

Although Steve has said in the past he wants to finish it all as soon as possible, I hope we are not going for a Jan 1 re-re-start to match TG more closely? By then there will be another contender too.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jochta on December 09, 2015, 12:23:45 am
Be interested to see an up to date heat map of the roads Kurt and Steve have travelled so far Jo! You did some waaay back. Don't worry if it's a major hassle though  ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jacamo on December 09, 2015, 12:25:13 am

Although Steve has said in the past he wants to finish it all as soon as possible, I hope we are not going for a Jan 1 re-re-start to match TG more closely? By then there will be another contender too.

If I were Steve's crew chief I'd have him pull the plug after his first attempt ends on Dec 31. He's just not fast enough to challenge the record at this time under the conditions that he's attempting it in. I'd then have Steve focus on speed/nutrition and plan on taking another shot the following year once the issues are sorted.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 09, 2015, 08:11:47 am
Day 342 / 123: Another 228 miles of Flatwood Park loops for Kurt continues to push him away from the Godwin line. Steve heads SW towrds Oxford and returns home for a mid-afternoon finish in order to catch up on missed sleep. His day total is 81 miles which drops him over 1000 miles below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay342.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 10, 2015, 10:27:28 am
Day 343 / 124: Kurt continues to do what he does best, fast loops around Flatwood for prodigious distances. With help from other fast riders who join him for 'only' 100 miles at a time, he manages 241 for the day, catching up with Tommy's total fast. Steve heads to the Cotswolds, breaking the 60,000 mile barrier and then after a rest back at home continues NE to Peterborough, managing 188 miles by midnight.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay343.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 10, 2015, 12:28:01 pm
Be interested to see an up to date heat map of the roads Kurt and Steve have travelled so far Jo! You did some waaay back. Don't worry if it's a major hassle though  ;D

Working on a new way of rendering the heat maps. Here's a preview of Steve's to date:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/saDensity200.jpg)

And a high resolution version (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/saDensity200.png) for the Marsh Gibbon hunters.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on December 10, 2015, 12:54:55 pm
A good view tonight of the Gibbon Nebula.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: MikeFromLFE on December 10, 2015, 01:22:33 pm
Jo - that is ever so slightly incredible!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 10, 2015, 03:23:07 pm
Kurt's roads more travelled

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ksDensity750.jpg)

And a high resolution version (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ksDensity750.png) for spotting those hamster wheels.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Graeme on December 10, 2015, 03:42:21 pm
Wow!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jochta on December 10, 2015, 05:32:19 pm
Amazing. if you could make those heat maps publicly available and take anyone's Strava data that would be even more amazing as they are a lot clearer than the Strava ones  ;D
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 10, 2015, 11:11:45 pm
Steve has mentioned on several occasions that he likes to ride at night. On the other hand Kurt has said he hates riding in the dark. I thought therefore I'd have a look at their day and night time riding patterns. The following is based on sunset/sunrise times local to their location. I'm not sure how best to name the units that correspond to the colouring of the heat map, but they are 'number of five minute intervals throughout the year in which they are riding within a 200m grid square (Steve) or 750m grid square (Kurt)'

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/saDayNight.jpg)
(and a high resolution version (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/saDayNight.png) for exploration)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ksDayNight.jpg)
(and a high resolution version (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ksDayNight.png) for exploration)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Von Broad on December 10, 2015, 11:21:26 pm
Wonderful graphic Jo.
Picture tells a thousand.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 11, 2015, 09:00:26 am
Day 344 / 125: More Flatwood loops for Kurt adding another 226 miles to his total. This leaves him with a minimum of 'only' 177 mpd required to match Godwin's record. Steve continues to recover from his change in diet regime, now being able to ride for 100 miles before stopping for food. His East Anglian loops give him 204 miles for the 24 hours suggesting he is capable of halting the recent decline from Godwin's pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay344.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on December 11, 2015, 11:27:58 am
Those heat maps are beautiful
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: matthew on December 11, 2015, 11:32:14 am
Steve has mentioned on several occasions that he likes to ride at night. On the other hand Kurt has said he hates riding in the dark. I thought therefore I'd have a look at their day and night time riding patterns. The following is based on sunset/sunrise times local to their location. I'm not sure how best to name the units that correspond to the colouring of the heat map, but they are 'number of five minute intervals throughout the year in which they are riding within a 200m grid square (Steve) or 750m grid square (Kurt)'

Jo the term that I used for the Lagrangian analysis of fluid mixing was residency time distribution. I was doing similar but in 3D with a particle being traced in a mixing vessel.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on December 12, 2015, 08:45:58 am
The heat maps are fascinating and may I add my thanks to Jo for producing them.

What would they look like if shown to scale?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 12, 2015, 09:32:50 am
Day 345 / 126: Kurt leaves the Flatwood loops for a day, heading through Withlacoochee and then back southward towards Tampa. His 210 miles takes him within a day of the 70,000 milestone. Steve does a Cambridgeshire loop and a relatively early finish for 170 miles. He is currently around 1,100 miles below the Godwin line on his reboot and 10,500 miles down for his 2015 attempt.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay345.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 13, 2015, 11:02:24 am
Day 346 / 127: Kurt flies though the 70,000 mile mark as he returns to doing Flatwood Park loops with plenty of supporters helping him complete 222 miles for the day. Steve first heads SW to Oxfordshire before reversing to ride with the wind. Plans for a long day are cut short by stomach problems at Thetford Forest, nevertheless he manages 199 miles by midnight.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay346.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: αdαmsκι on December 13, 2015, 11:13:59 am
Once Kurt has finished the hamr an updated version of his heatmap could make a cool framed picture to hang on a wall.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ham on December 13, 2015, 01:11:57 pm
I'd be happy chipping in some crowdfunding to send one to Kurt, too.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on December 14, 2015, 07:38:40 am
Kurt's roads more travelled

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ksDensity750.jpg)

And a high resolution version (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ksDensity750.png) for spotting those hamster wheels.

Draco !!!!  :o
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 14, 2015, 11:40:50 pm
Day 347 / 128: A fast day for Kurt as he rides with with a couple of speedy groups around Flatwood Park in the morning. The wind slows things down a little in the afternoon, but he still manages 235 miles by the end of the day and finally overtakes Tommy's like-for-like total. He has now ridden further in 338 days than anyone else. Ever.

Steve struggles after a night kipping a church doorway with stomach troubles. He heads for Norwich from Thetford Forest and then makes the journey home while battling with sleep deprivation for a 24 hour total of 168 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay347.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on December 15, 2015, 07:39:01 pm
Jo   how many miles below the Godwin Line is he now.  Last time was 1100  ish I think. Roughly what mileage has he averaged in last two weeks with very mild  (and seemingly continuing to be ) weather.
 ???
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Freya on December 15, 2015, 10:14:39 pm
From Strava and adding it up in my head I make it he has averaged 155 miles a da since Nov 30th. Making a loss of 960 in 2 weeks and a bit. My maths could be wrong.
Edit. My maths is wrong it is 162 per day for a loss of 704 to Godwin
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 15, 2015, 10:17:28 pm
Day 348 / 129: More loops of Flatwood Park for Kurt...and then some more loops. As he smells the finish line, Kurt manages 238 miles, lifting him to around 940 above the Godwin line. In contrast, with continuing grey wintery weather, Steve  struggles with sleep deprivation brought on by his unscheduled overnight stop to complete a Northants loop for 140 miles. This leaves him just over 1200 miles below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay348.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on December 15, 2015, 10:33:48 pm
Freya and Jo - many thanks to both of you. 
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 16, 2015, 08:36:46 am
Day 349 / 130: Kurt continues to increase his daily distances with a formidable 254 fast miles of Flatwood Park loops largely accompanied by John and Jacquie Schlitter on recumbents. He is approaching 1000 miles above the Godwin line. Steve fits in a doctor's appointment and sleep recovery into a shorter 116 mile day of riding down to Cirencester. He is currently 1300 miles below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay349.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 17, 2015, 05:31:37 pm
Day 350 / 131: Kurt has a 'recovery' day around Flatwood Park, mostly riding solo. His 209 mile day puts him approximately 1000 miles above Godwin's average pace. Steve, still not quite well, rides back from Cirencester through MK continuing NE until he hits Peterborough at which point he heads back home for 175 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay350.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: swampthing on December 17, 2015, 08:49:06 pm
Day 350 / 131: Kurt has a 'recovery' day around Flatwood Park, mostly riding solo. His 209 mile day puts him approximately 1000 miles above Godwin's average pace.

Jo, what data do you use?
It does not differ much, but the UMCA's results suggest that Kurt has ridden a bit less so that he is 923 miles above Godwin's average pace. Kurt's website (which seems to rely on garmin connect values that slightly deviate from Strava) returns approximately the same value (~920miles ahead)  (http://www.tarzanrides.com/resources/projection.pdf (http://www.tarzanrides.com/resources/projection.pdf))
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 18, 2015, 09:47:43 pm
Day 351 / 132: Kurt leaves Flatwood for a day riding to the east coast at St Augustine. Rain at the end of the day cuts his ride a little short at 203 miles. Steve takes time to recover from recent tummy trouble so on doctor's orders keeps to a shorter local ride including laps of the Milton Keynes Bowl for a 100 mile total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay351.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 19, 2015, 09:59:26 pm
Day 352 / 133: Kurt sticks to the Florida east coast, riding south from St Augustine to Vero Beach. Rain and highway detritus add interest to his 209 mile ride. Steve continue to suffer digestive health issues combined with the need to rest so has another short day mostly riding loops of the MK Bowl for a total of 107 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay352.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 20, 2015, 08:37:09 am
Day 353 / 134: Kurt rides back to the Florida west coast mostly following the wind for exactly one Godwin. Steve begins his recovery, sticking to local roads and the Milton Keynes Bowl. His 184 mile total for the day sees him passing Rene Menzies' 1937 record of 61561 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay353.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on December 20, 2015, 07:59:33 pm
From the Kurt thread:
Godwin has three records.

The classic calendar year record, the "year" record and the 100K record. I suspect Kurt will only take one of these .
I think Kurt's stated intention is only to go for the 2nd of those 3, but Steve has talked about all 3.
As this is the main thread for number-crunching:

How is Steve looking against the 100,000mile schedule? IIRC it's 500 days, so at 200mpd a little softer than the 205 figure (or whatever-Kurt-sets-in-January).

(feel free to kick this back to another thread!)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on December 20, 2015, 09:59:34 pm
Steve needs 261 per day for the remaining 147 days were he to take the 500 utilising the original year. 

He can sensibly utilise some of his post ankle miles plus the year up to August but IIRC he'll need to raise Kurts benchmark by a fair bit to step off the bike taking the year and the 100k at midnight at the end of his current year.  I did quantify 'a fair bit' in a thread a while back (with a bit of guesstimation as it was a week or so before the restart) but I can't recall where the spreadsheet is just now.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 21, 2015, 12:41:44 pm
Day 354 / 135: Back to Flatwood Park for Kurt as he does 213 miles of loops, half of which with company. Steve rides NE with the wind to Cromer before calling it a night and getting his first lift back to MK. The 185 miles takes him further ahead of Rene Menzies' 1937 total and edges him towards Ossie Nicholson's 62,657 record.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay354.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on December 21, 2015, 06:33:05 pm
Jo thank you once again for your excellent daily graphs.  How many miles below the Godwin Line is he.  I mean that as opposed to the slightly higher  (looking likely ) Kurt line
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 23, 2015, 08:34:44 am
Day 355 / 136: More Flatwood Park loops for Kurt. Knee pain prevents him riding the recumbent but he manages a healthy 217 miles on the upright. Steve has still to shake off his tummy bug problems and after a vehicle transfer from Cromer to MK, sticks to a short day of Milton Keynes Bowl laps for 65 miles. This leaves him around 1720 miles below the Godwin line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay355.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 23, 2015, 08:35:02 am
Day 356 / 137: Kurt rides the Flatwood circuit with some fast company for a day's total of 223 miles. As he nears the end of his year, he's including some faster intervals and sprints in the mix. Steve starts from the Severn Bridge and rides NE with the wind. He fits in an appointment with a gastroenterologist for his digestive problems yet manages to squeeze 199 miles of riding into the day. In doing so, he passes 100kkm – that's 100,000km of riding since January 1st.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay356.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on December 23, 2015, 08:50:02 am
Many thanks for all these again Jo
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on December 23, 2015, 04:52:06 pm
...he passes 100kkm – that's 100,000km of riding since January 1st.

Doffs cap toward Mr Abraham.

To put that into perspective, if all those kms had counted toward the AUK individual award he'd be on 1,000 points. ONE THOUSAND POINTS!!!!!

Jeezus I'm still pleased at having done 100 points in a season. Once.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 24, 2015, 08:32:44 am
Day 357 / 138: Kurt sticks to Flatwood where he is able to get the fastest miles in and a good chance of company. Today's total of 220 miles take him to nearly 1050 miles above the Godwin line. Steve has a day of respite in the weather between westerly storms, riding back from Newmarket to MK with some evening Bowl action for a total of 158 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay357.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 25, 2015, 10:14:14 pm
Day 358 / 139: Kurt continues to push out the miles doing loops around Flatwood Park. Today, on Christmas Eve, with plenty of company to keep the morale and speed up he manages 229 miles. Steve has the benefit of a tailwind as he rides from MK to the north Norfolk coast and beds down for the night at Acle with 160 miles ridden.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay358.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 26, 2015, 08:27:26 am
Day 359 / 140: Christmas day. Kurt leaves Flatwood for a 'recovery day' riding NW for a series of repeats totalling just over one Godwin. He is currently around 1070 miles above the Godwin line. Steve rides back from the Norfolk Broads to MK, suffering a major tyre cut on the way and a forced stop while he waits for repairs. He makes up some of the distance by doing some evening repeats and circuits of the MK Bowl, all in for 182 miles and within a day of taking Ossie Nicholson's 1937 record.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay359.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 28, 2015, 11:26:45 am
Day 360 / 141: Yet another day of Flatwood loops for Kurt. He decides to call it a day after 214 miles when rain stops play. On recent progress, he should be exceed Tommy's record by around 1200 miles by the end of his 365 days. Steve rides 185 miles to Great Yarmouth and in doing so passes Ossie Nicholson's 1937 record of 62,657 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay360.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 28, 2015, 11:32:55 am
Day 361 / 142: Alicia's birthday. To celebrate Kurt rides more laps of Flatwood adding another 210 miles to his total. Steve returns from Great Yarmouth in somewhat better weather for 176 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay361.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 29, 2015, 12:27:19 pm
Day 362 / 143: Kurt counts down on his virtual RAAM by riding another 219 miles around Flatwood Park in the company of various supporters and other riders. Fatigue gets the better of Steve who limits himself to a short trip to the MK Bowl for 25 miles. He is now 2075 miles below the Godwin line, requiring 215 mpd for the next 6 months to equal Tommy's record and over 220 mpd to beat Kurt's likely total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay362.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 31, 2015, 10:51:24 am
Day 363 / 144: 212 miles of Flatwood laps for Kurt has he continues to tick off the virtual RAAM checkpoints. Steve has a late start and rides to 141 miles to Basingstoke via the Cotswolds yet again battling winter headwinds.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay363.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on December 31, 2015, 10:52:20 am
Day 364 / 145: Kurt puts another 216 miles in the bag via Flatwood Park and his virtual RAAM. He and Alicia agree to stick to Flatwood until the record is broken. Steve makes the return from Basingstoke with some wet weather but the benefit of some tailwind. He passes MK ending his 176 miles in King's Lynn.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay364.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 01, 2016, 07:38:39 pm
Day 365 / 146: Kurt has a fast and long day looping around Flatwood with friends. In so doing, he adds 227 miles to his total. He is now within a week of taking the record, or if he wants to take it easy, just 88 miles per day until Jan 9th.

Steve completes his year of cycling with a total of 63,565 miles – exactly 11,500 miles behind Tommy Godwin, or around 66 days of riding at his average pace. That places Steve third in the all-time list of annual distance records behind Tommy and Bernard Bennett, although shortly to be shunted down one position when Kurt completes his year on January 9th. Over the year, including his time off in hospital and recovery after his broken ankle, he has averaged 174.2 miles per day and has spent 51% of every hour of the year moving on his bike.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay365.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on January 01, 2016, 07:59:56 pm
Thanks  (as always ) Jo for those statistics
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: road-runner on January 01, 2016, 08:00:17 pm
From day 91 to day 152 we can see that Steve lost 7,500 miles due to the accident. Further recovery time will have been the cause of some or all of the remaining 4,000 miles short of Tommy. Quite how many of those miles would not have been lost without the accident and then the adjusting to a new diet we cannot be sure. It seems that Steve has shown that he is capable of achieving his target given good health and no broken bones.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: loadsabikes on January 02, 2016, 08:56:31 am
^+1
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: rabbit on January 03, 2016, 09:43:39 am
You know how amazing you are at these graphics Jo, erm, is there any possibility we will see a line for Bruce?  I know it is a boatload more work for you so will understand if not. 
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 03, 2016, 10:23:23 am
I'm working on some enhancements that will include both Bruce and Kajsa's rides. Not sure how frequently I will be providing updates on this thread in 2016 though. I've calculated that in 2015 I've spent over 400 hours on visualizing and reporting various aspects of the OYTT. That's equivalent to 10 weeks of full-time work.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: paul851 on January 03, 2016, 10:47:53 am
I've calculated that in 2015 I've spent over 400 hours on visualizing and reporting various aspects of the OYTT. That's equivalent to 10 weeks of full-time work.

This statement is meaningless without a visualization to be honest  ;)  :P  ;D

Great work over the past year jo many many thanks for all the work you have put in  :thumbsup:

Paul


Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 03, 2016, 11:29:43 am
Day 147 / 1: A new year and two new challengers: Bruce Berkeley currently based in Adelaide, Australia and Kajsa Tylan based in Nottingham, UK. Both get off to promising starts with Bruce clocking up 208 hilly miles, a couple above Godwin pace and Kajsa completing a 102 mile loop through Notts and the W. Midlands putting her 28 miles ahead of Billy Dovey's average of 79.6 mpd.

Meanwhile Kurt has just over a week to go and continues to put in long and fast days around Flatwoods Park. Jan 1st's loops add 222 miles to his total. Steve begins to up the his daily distance following enforced easier days under doctor's orders. His return from Acle to MK gives him another 202 miles for his August-August shot at the record.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay366.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 03, 2016, 11:30:38 am
Day 148 / 2: Smelling the finish line, Kurt edges ever closer to the record with today's Flatwood laps adding an impressive 240 miles. He is now within one or two days of the record. Steve does a there-and-back-again trip to Cirencester in the rain for a total of 191 miles. Bruce shows his ability to climb and ride fast with a 211 mile loop over the mountains east of Adelaide. Kajsa's wet 102 loop of the East Midlands and Lincolnshire keeps here well above Dovey pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay367.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on January 03, 2016, 12:21:18 pm
Would some kind of visualisation showing a percentage above or below each rider's relative target allow all the riders to be shown on the same page?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hatler on January 03, 2016, 01:17:08 pm
jo, have the words 'sucker for punishment' ever been directed at you ?

:-)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on January 03, 2016, 01:27:18 pm
Would some kind of visualisation showing a percentage above or below each rider's relative target allow all the riders to be shown on the same page?

Sorry, Jo, I shot that off without thinking about the work it would involve. Feel free to tell me to wind my neck in!! ;)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: danridesbikes on January 03, 2016, 02:38:08 pm
Quote
I've calculated that in 2015 I've spent over 400 hours on visualizing and reporting various aspects of the OYTT. That's equivalent to 10 weeks of full-time work.

was 399 of them spent scratching your head trying to piece together the nonsense that Miles was posting on Strava?  ;D

all in all, excellent work, the graphs/heat map images are whats kept me coming back time after time  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on January 03, 2016, 02:58:48 pm
I've calculated that in 2015 I've spent over 400 hours on ...
If it's not on strava,
 it didn't happen.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on January 03, 2016, 02:59:43 pm
Have you ever thought of getting your graphs crowd-funded, jo?  ;)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: swampthing on January 03, 2016, 05:27:41 pm
According to Strava the number of hours ridden in 2015 are
~ 4300 hours by Steve
~ 4100 hours by Kurt (around 100 hours might to be added till 9th January).

Does anybody know how many hours Tommy Godwin spent riding?

Maybe Steve has set a new "HAHR"-record (highets annual hours record) despite his broken ankle.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: rabbit on January 03, 2016, 05:29:27 pm
Thank you Jo, for this, and for the huge amount of time you have already put into the graphs.  Much appreciated, and I am sure we will all understand if you have to reduce the updates from a daily occurrence with the amount of time and effort required. 
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: drgannet on January 03, 2016, 06:22:06 pm
According to Strava the number of hours ridden in 2015 are
~ 4300 hours by Steve
~ 4100 hours by Kurt (around 100 hours might to be added till 9th January).

Does anybody know how many hours Tommy Godwin spent riding?

Maybe Steve has set a new "HAHR"-record (highets annual hours record) despite his broken ankle.

That is a very inisightful post.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on January 03, 2016, 06:58:57 pm
Thank you Jo, for this, and for the huge amount of time you have already put into the graphs.  Much appreciated, and I am sure we will all understand if you have to reduce the updates from a daily occurrence with the amount of time and effort required.

yes, fully agree. a weekly graph and summary would be sufficient, perhaps with the Kurt's line as an x-axis.

many thanks for the graphs - it would almost be impossible to know the situation without them!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: drgannet on January 03, 2016, 07:03:21 pm

That is a very inisightful post.  :thumbsup:

I've just remembered this post from Jo from 1st Jan https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87407.msg1966704#msg1966704 (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87407.msg1966704#msg1966704)] where he reports 51% of available hours on the bike for Steve in 2015. Do we know Tommy's average speed for his year (I'm wondering whether it is likely that Steve is the only person to have spent over 50% of a single year of his life cycling)? I make no apologies for the sad nature of this post...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 03, 2016, 07:33:02 pm
%time moving on the bike and average moving speeds have been reported daily at http://gicentre.org/oytt/ in the green bit at the bottom.

Both Steve and Kurt have exceeded 50% in 2015. Steve's reboot attempt, assuming he sees it through to August will likely be greater than 51%.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: swampthing on January 03, 2016, 11:04:56 pm
%time moving on the bike and average moving speeds have been reported daily at http://gicentre.org/oytt/ in the green bit at the bottom.

Both Steve and Kurt have exceeded 50% in 2015. Steve's reboot attempt, assuming he sees it through to August will likely be greater than 51%.

Thank you, jo, for this hint.

Your data is taken from the trackers, I presume!? Strava obviously encompasses riding time slightly differently (perhaps taking small stops as non-riding-time), resulting for both riders in a higher average speed. According to Strava-data (which has not been cleared of some minor errors) Kurt spent 48.3% of the hours 2015 (starting on 10th January) cycling (4106 hours at 18.1 mph ) and Steve 49.3% (4317 hours at 14.7 mph) (see table below).

Anyway, I guess data on riding time was hardly measurable accurately during Tommy's 1939 ride, so we won't be able to compare with him.

Although having several weeks with no to little riding after his accident, Steve seems to have spent more hours in the saddle 2015 than Kurt .
His endurance and determination are incredible, but his speed really limits him. 

             %hours // mph // ~"miles"
Kurt         
Strava   48,3%  // 18,1   // 74.956
jo         51%     // 17,1   //  74.931
Steve         
Strava   49,3%  // 14,7  // 63.651
jo         51%     // 14,3  //  63.565


Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 04, 2016, 10:09:36 am
Day 149 / 3: Kurt eases off the gas just a little, completing 188 miles around Flatwood Park some of which was in heavy rain. This leaves him just 142 miles short of Tommy Godwin's record and 6 days remaining. Steve feeling a little rough rides north to Goole in poor winter weather, bedding down for the night after 161 miles. Bruce puts in another strong performance with more climbing and high average speed for a total of 210 miles. Kajsa rides a loop south of Nottingham with the poor weather cutting her day a little shorter than planned at 87 miles. This still leaves her 55 miles ahead of the Dovey line though.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay368.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on January 04, 2016, 10:24:35 am
Thanks Jo
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 05, 2016, 01:16:50 pm
Day 360 / 150 / 4: After 360 days of hard toiling, Kurt takes the new world record for the furthest ridden in a year. His 190 day of Flatwood loops takes his total to 75,113 miles with five more days of riding left to lengthen the record.

In other news, Steve loops around the flatlands of east Yorkshire avoiding the worst of the floods to the north and rain to the south. His 181 mile day sees him around 2,240 below the Godwin line approximately midway between Tommy's average pace and his actual pace by day 150. Bruce continues to push out fast and hilly miles around Adelaide, this time accumulating another 210 miles. Kajsa has a longer day making up for the previous day's shortfall then riding her planned route, in all giving her 104 miles and 77 above the Dovey line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay369.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LUCAS on January 05, 2016, 05:49:24 pm
Which thread will get to 100,000 views first? 

Will it be the ‘Visualizing the OYTT’ started by Jo.  This is a steady thread, based on facts and figures, very little argument is encountered and everything is always clear and concise.  Sometimes a rather silly comment is raised but using numbers the issue is quickly dealt with by Jo. It is many people’s go to thread first thing in the morning.
Or will it be ‘Current thoughts on the record attempt?’ started by Jochta.  This is an erratic thread, based on personal thoughts and sometimes even fantasy.  Quite often, like a cycling peloton, this rolls along quietly, everybody is friendly but suddenly it kicks off for no apparent reason.   Emotions run high, minor arguments are plentiful and nobody clouds the issues with facts.  It appears to be the thread for people who are bored at work and bored at home.

About the only thing the above have in common is that everybody who posts or views these threads, wishes Steve Abraham the best, we just have different ways of showing it.

I enjoy both threads; please keep up the good work. 
The race to 100k views will be gripping.
(To show my impartiality I will post this message on both threads)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 05, 2016, 08:58:52 pm
Someone, somewhere in the hundreds of posts that have been made on the OYTT in the last few days asked for a graphic of Steve's day and night riding. Here's Steve movement chart (top row Jan 1st 2015, bottom row Jan 4th 2016; time from midnight to midnight left to right; red=movement; moving speed on right) with hours of darkness shown. These are approximate as they are based on twilight in Milton Keynes (is there any other kind?):

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay369Small.png)

and the full sized version (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveMovementDay369.png) for detailed analysis.

Either through choice or necessity it is clear that Steve is riding many more dark hours in recent months than earlier in the challenge.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on January 05, 2016, 09:42:58 pm
^ gorgeous ^
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 05, 2016, 10:47:19 pm
I think it was Alex who asked for a chart of stopped time for Steve and Kurt. You can make an approximate judgement from the movement charts above, but to aid comparison I've calculated the proportion of time stopped for both riders.  This is based on finding the start and end of each day's ride and then between those points counting the five minute intervals for each rider where there is no movement as a proportion of the total number of five minute intervals between the start and end of the ride. To remove complications of post midnight late finishes, I've excluded midnight-3am.

Steve in red, Kurt in blue, thick lines a rolling seven day average:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/timeStopped.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Greenbank on January 05, 2016, 11:09:26 pm
I think it was Alex who asked for a chart of stopped time for Steve and Kurt.

Perfect, thanks jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: NeilH on January 06, 2016, 08:41:48 am
One thing that immediately stuck me when looking at the "day and night riding" graphic: the moped accident seems to have had a noticeable effect on the consistency of Steve's morning routine. Before the accident he was pretty regular about starting between 5 and 6am, but but he has never managed to get back into that regular habit post-accident.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Legs on January 06, 2016, 08:51:39 am
Someone, somewhere in the hundreds of posts that have been made on the OYTT in the last few days asked for a graphic of Steve's day and night riding. Here's Steve movement chart (top row Jan 1st 2015, bottom row Jan 4th 2016; time from midnight to midnight left to right; red=movement; moving speed on right) with hours of darkness shown. These are approximate as they are based on twilight in Milton Keynes (is there any other kind?):
;D that is rather fabulous.  I'm sure it wouldn't take too many more hundreds of hours of your hard work to display the hours of darkness appropriate to his location  ;) 
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 06, 2016, 09:04:21 am
I did consider incorporating location specific sunrise/sunset data into that visualization (which I had done anyway for this (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87407.msg1957457#msg1957457)), but the effect is only to change times by a few minutes within the typical ranges he is cycling. Given that twilight and weather means that in terms of road visibility light/dark probably has a precision of half an hour or so, it didn't really seem worth it.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on January 06, 2016, 09:38:48 am
One thing that immediately stuck me when looking at the "day and night riding" graphic: the moped accident seems to have had a noticeable effect on the consistency of Steve's morning routine. Before the accident he was pretty regular about starting between 5 and 6am, but but he has never managed to get back into that regular habit post-accident.





I think when steve was suffering excessive tiredness around about June ish he took to waking up when he did and starting between 9 and 10 am.  In this respect he only has one rush hour to cope with but of course more riding in the dark
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 06, 2016, 09:48:47 am
Day 361 / 151 / 5: Kurt celebrates his record breaking achievement by "only" riding 168 miles around Flatwood. He is currently pushing the world record to 75,290 miles with four days to go. Steve rides back south from his stay in East Yorkshire clocking up 195 miles. Kajsa rides from Newark towards Peterborough but a puncture and dark winter weather keeps her distance to exactly one 'Dovey' (81 miles). Bruce takes a break from the hills and sticks to repeats along the coast around Adelaide 218 miles taking him to 32 miles above the Godwin line in only 5 days.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay370.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Kim on January 06, 2016, 07:20:25 pm
One thing that immediately stuck me when looking at the "day and night riding" graphic: the moped accident seems to have had a noticeable effect on the consistency of Steve's morning routine. Before the accident he was pretty regular about starting between 5 and 6am, but but he has never managed to get back into that regular habit post-accident.

That's quite interesting.

Seems to me that quality of sleep is vitally important, and if Steve's natural sleep phase lags daylight, then perhaps there's more benefit to going with the flow rather than making the most of the available daylight.  We know he isn't afraid of riding in the dark.

Alternatively, by starting later he's simply avoiding the morning commuter traffic.  I don't know his usual roads out of MK very well, but the effect on speed could be substantial.

Might also be a reasonable approach to avoid ice.  If there was any ice.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ivo on January 06, 2016, 09:51:28 pm
One thing that immediately stuck me when looking at the "day and night riding" graphic: the moped accident seems to have had a noticeable effect on the consistency of Steve's morning routine. Before the accident he was pretty regular about starting between 5 and 6am, but but he has never managed to get back into that regular habit post-accident.

That's quite interesting.

Seems to me that quality of sleep is vitally important, and if Steve's natural sleep phase lags daylight, then perhaps there's more benefit to going with the flow rather than making the most of the available daylight.  We know he isn't afraid of riding in the dark.

Alternatively, by starting later he's simply avoiding the morning commuter traffic.  I don't know his usual roads out of MK very well, but the effect on speed could be substantial.

Might also be a reasonable approach to avoid ice.  If there was any ice.

Plus avoiding the coldest period of the day. Usually the period of the day when you have to change clothes often is during the first two hours after sunrise. After that temperatures tend to be more stable. So if you evade part of this timeperiod your moving time will be higher.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Frank9755 on January 07, 2016, 08:49:23 am
Alternatively, by starting later he's simply avoiding the morning commuter traffic.  I don't know his usual roads out of MK very well, but the effect on speed could be substantial.

Yes, but probably not in a good way!  Passing traffic on the network of dual carriageways which make up Milton Keynes would give him an extra 1-2mph of speed.  Of course any inpenetrable hold-ups would offset that.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on January 07, 2016, 10:14:05 am
IMO, a 6 am start would have got him out into the countryside before the morning traffic started.
Also in my opinion, 10 am traffic is worse than 6 am traffic.

When I rode midweek 200 DIYs, I got my start proof at an ATM at 06:00.
When I rode 300 Midmesh, I got my start proof at he same ATM at 05:00.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 07, 2016, 10:58:49 am
Day 362 / 152 / 6: After a couple of farewell laps of Flatwoods Park, Kurt heads south ending his day in Naples and with another 166 miles added to the record (now standing at 75,446 miles). Steve spends the day riding round and round and round and round the Milton Keynes Bowl for 157 miles. Kajsa also rides a loop, but just the one, circumnavigating Peterborough for 94 miles. Bruce does another 212 miles with a couple of large climbs and plenty of headwind.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay371.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 07, 2016, 07:07:23 pm
I've added a few new enhancements to the OYTT visualizer at http://gicentre.org/oytt


Here's an example showing Kajsa's progress so far in comparison to the 'Dovey line':

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDoveyExample.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ham on January 07, 2016, 07:10:03 pm
Sheer brilliance, thanks!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LUCAS on January 07, 2016, 08:49:19 pm
Thanks Jo,   Easy to use, easy to understand.

Superb work
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 07, 2016, 10:49:28 pm
Steve's heatmaps for all of 2015:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/heatmapAbraham2015Day.jpg)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/heatmapAbraham2015Night.jpg)

And day and night riding combined:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/heatmapAbraham2015All.jpg)

Full sized images here:

http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/heatmapAbraham2015Day.png
http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/heatmapAbraham2015Night.png
http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/heatmapAbraham2015All.png
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on January 08, 2016, 12:51:58 am
Sheer brilliance, thanks!



Plus one
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: JohnR on January 08, 2016, 07:29:01 am
Don't know how you do this Jo, but brilliant work.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on January 08, 2016, 08:38:50 am
That bottom one would make a great poster.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Greenbank on January 08, 2016, 11:26:37 am
I can see why Steve says he misses riding in Wales.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Frank9755 on January 08, 2016, 11:42:25 am
The saddest bit is the thread down on the bottom left, to Exeter.  On the way back, the brightness decreases where the moped struck.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on January 08, 2016, 01:02:25 pm
I can see why Steve says he misses riding in Wales.

It's time to make a special offer - Lifetime free entry to Cambrian Series Permanents to riders who have a verified mileage of more than 60,000 in one calendary year.  (Whilst I'm still the organiser) - Go Steve!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: crowriver on January 08, 2016, 01:23:20 pm
Great stuff, Jo.

Readers of this forum are exceedingly fortunate to have the benefit of all your hard work.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: αdαmsκι on January 08, 2016, 02:13:50 pm
It's time to make a special offer - Lifetime free entry to Cambrian Series Permanents to riders who have a verified mileage of more than 60,000 in one calendary year.  (Whilst I'm still the organiser) - Go Steve!

Why not give Jo a perm entry considering all the work he's done visualling the oytt. I'm sure he'd enjoy the 8A :demon:.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Marmitegeoff on January 08, 2016, 04:22:12 pm
It's time to make a special offer - Lifetime free entry to Cambrian Series Permanents to riders who have a verified mileage of more than 60,000 in one calendary year.  (Whilst I'm still the organiser) - Go Steve!

Why not give Jo a perm entry considering all the work he's done visualling the oytt. I'm sure he'd enjoy the 8A :demon:.

Jo can have a free entry to any of the Tamworth events as a very small reward for all the work done.

Thank you very much Jo

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on January 08, 2016, 05:54:10 pm
"Freeman of the village of Marsh Gibbon."
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 09, 2016, 02:11:39 pm
Day 363 / 153 / 7: A week in for the two new challengers and only two more days left for Kurt. He continues to ride south onto the Florida Keys to finish his day with 183 miles more on the WR. Steve rides up to the Norfolk coast with the benefit of a tailwind eventually getting to Great Yarmouth with exactly 200 miles on the clock. Kajsa also rides east with the tailwind until changing heading into the fens makes the cross wind too hazardous to carry on much further. Her 60 mile day still leaves her 70 miles above the Dovey line. On the other side of the world Bruce also battles with headwinds on his 210 miles of circuits around Adelaide.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay372.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on January 09, 2016, 02:26:14 pm
Great stuff, Jo.

Readers of this forum are exceedingly fortunate to have the benefit of all your hard work.

Definitely - once again, thanks jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 09, 2016, 02:27:23 pm
Day 364 / 154 / 8: With only one more day to go for Kurt he rides north from the Keys past Miami, Fort Lauderdale towards West Palm Beach. He keeps his consistently fast pace despite over 75,000 miles in his legs ending the day with the world record advanced by another 211 miles. Steve's team publish a new riding schedule for 2016 that aims to deliver a 77,000 mile record in August. This involves immediately increasing his daily average to beyond 205 mpd. Things don't get off to a good start with the headwind from Yarmouth back to MK keeping his distance down to 185 miles. Kajsa has a better day and despite one puncture she completes her planned 100 miles of fenland riding taking her 88 miles ahead of Billie Dovey's pace. Bruce also has a good day joining team Astana on the road for a while and completing around 210 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay373.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 10, 2016, 10:27:42 am
Day 365 / 155 / 9: After 365 days of riding without fail, including when barely able to stand with food poisoning, when having emergency heart monitoring, being knocked of his bike, numerous punctures,long dark nights of the soul and getting married, Kurt Searvogel clocks up a new world record of 76,076 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oyttDay374.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: toontra on January 10, 2016, 10:31:00 am
Great summary Jo, and thanks for the work you have put in to help us keep track of this momentous achievement! 

That last chart says it all - it's like the printout from some life-support machine showing the dramatic ups and downs, and the constant struggle it takes just to keep near the target zone, let alone keep going at all.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on January 10, 2016, 10:51:12 am
And the horizontal line represents a daily Searvogel.  :thumbsup:

I have just been chatting to a cyclist on the train who was old enough to remember Tommy Godwin's record being made.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Freya on January 10, 2016, 11:00:22 am
Quote

I have just been charring to a cyclist on the train who was old enough to remember Tommy Godwin's record being made.
Can't the lazy bugger clean his own bike?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on January 10, 2016, 11:11:51 am
Quote

I have just been charring to a cyclist on the train who was old enough to remember Tommy Godwin's record being made.
Can't the lazy bugger clean his own bike?

SSSFSS.*


*Small screen, sausage fingers, short sighted.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on January 11, 2016, 10:42:43 am
Am I correct?

1 Searvogel = 208.65
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on January 11, 2016, 04:27:56 pm
Am I correct?

1 Searvogel = 208.65

If my iPhone calculator is correct 76076/365 = 208.427 or 335.3km.  Mindboggling.  Checking my records I think I've managed a Searvogel on 28 occasions, that includes 3 x PBP, LEL, Mille Miglia, Mille Alba, 2 24 hour TTs (only one of those makes a Searvogel due to the middle of the day start and finsih), and 11xSR series.  That's not even enough for a February of Searvogels this year.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: La Tortue on January 11, 2016, 06:14:14 pm
Am I correct?

1 Searvogel = 208.65
I believe as per https://teammooseisloose.wordpress.com/ (https://teammooseisloose.wordpress.com/) the correct term is a "Tarzan".
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on January 11, 2016, 06:23:42 pm
Not in my world, unless there is a Cheetah involved.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Ningishzidda on January 13, 2016, 09:03:56 am
Am I correct?

1 Searvogel = 208.65
I believe as per https://teammooseisloose.wordpress.com/ (https://teammooseisloose.wordpress.com/) the correct term is a "Tarzan".

From Wackypedia.

“the name Tarzan is claimed as a trademark of Edgar Rice Burroughs, Inc”

They’d better check this before putting Kurt’s nickname as an ‘official’ unit of measurement.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mr Larrington on January 13, 2016, 09:36:58 am
(Awaits with interest the outcome of Burroughs vs. Heseltine)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wobbly on January 13, 2016, 09:58:06 am
(Awaits with interest the outcome of Burroughs vs. Heseltine)

Genuine LOL, thanks  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Greenbank on January 13, 2016, 10:24:28 am
Refer to Arkel vs. Pressdram probably.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Laid Back Rich on January 13, 2016, 02:57:14 pm
Refer to Arkel vs. Pressdram probably.

oh no, now this thread will be taken offf air too  :facepalm:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Greenbank on January 13, 2016, 03:23:24 pm
I meant the claimants in Larrington's Burroughs vs. Heseltine case would probably be referred to Arkel vs. Pressdram, not anyone on this good forum.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: StevieB on January 14, 2016, 06:53:38 pm
He keeps his consistently fast pace despite over 75,000 miles in his legs ...

These are words you don't come across often, not even in audax circles...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 22, 2016, 07:51:15 am
2016 Day 21:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_01_21.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on January 22, 2016, 08:03:21 am
Thanks again Jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on January 22, 2016, 09:30:59 am
Jo, thanks for all you've done to illustrate this year's amazing athletes' efforts, and to bring it all alive.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on January 22, 2016, 12:12:01 pm
A silver lining to today's bad news; less work for Jo, and the graphs are now a lot clearer!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 23, 2016, 10:53:21 am
Rather than dwell on what Steve hasn't achieved, I thought a bit of perspective might be helpful. He's ridden 108,000km since January 1st 2015.

Here's a map to scale:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/steveDistance.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Basil on January 23, 2016, 11:18:59 am
What a wonderful visualisation. 

I know everyone else has said it, but thank you so much for all the work you have put in over the last year and a bit.  You made it so much easier for me to understand (or visualise) how the stories were unfolding. 
Every morning, sit down with coffee and read your 7 am ish post with graph and commentary.  What a ritual that became for me.

Thanks Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hatler on January 23, 2016, 12:24:06 pm
Ooo. That is neat. Any chance of including the moon in the image ?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: crowriver on January 23, 2016, 12:32:11 pm
Ooo. That is neat. Any chance of including the moon in the image ?

The moon is 384,400 km away. It would be way off the right of your monitor at that scale.

Put another way, Steve cycled more than one quarter of the way to Luna...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on January 23, 2016, 04:42:59 pm
Superb, jo. All we need is another Kurt, another Steve and someone to fetch the Baton from Dunnett Head and it can go to the moon. :smug:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Kim on January 23, 2016, 05:53:48 pm
Ooo. That is neat. Any chance of including the moon in the image ?

The moon is 384,400 km away. It would be way off the right of your monitor at that scale.

It's okay, I've cunningly got another monitor...  I estimate that puts the moon somewhere in the vicinity of the nicklist of my IRC window, and about twice the diameter of one of the chanops' '@'s.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: DaveE128 on January 26, 2016, 12:20:27 pm
Another vote of thanks Jo!

I noticed earlier that http://gicentre.org/oytt/ seems to be down for me atm. Is this permanent or temporary?

Thanks!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on January 26, 2016, 12:45:13 pm
The OYTT site being down is just temporary. I am told the web server elves are busy trying to sort it out.

In the mean time you can see it via a different page: http://staff.city.ac.uk/~jwo/oytt


ETA: http://gicentre.org/oytt is now back up and running.

I will continue to keep it up to date though the year, but will probably be posting on this thread infrequently.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: DaveE128 on January 26, 2016, 01:03:56 pm
Thanks Jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Marmitegeoff on January 26, 2016, 08:44:00 pm
Thank you so much Jo.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 02, 2016, 08:33:14 pm
Update as of Feb 2nd: Both Kajsa and Bruce have made promising starts after a month of riding.

Kajsa has kept up an average of 88.5 miles per day and 1.0 entertaining video blogs per day. Strong winds in the last few days have lowered her average a little but she is currently 245 miles above the Dovey line with probably the worst month of weather behind her.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_02_02b.png)

Bruce had been climbing steadily above the 'Searvogel line' for most of January, typically riding around 210 miles per day.  Knee problems, a bit of fatigue and worsening weather have meant he has lost most of his gains in the last few days, but at 6792 miles in 33 days he remains within 100 miles of Kurt's record pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_02_02a.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 07, 2016, 10:29:21 pm
Update as of Sunday February 7th:

A tough week for Kajsa as she sees off a cold while continuing to battle with windy conditions. Over the weekend she has headed SW to Gloucester and the Severn for the first time and spent some time riding in the company of Steve Abraham who'd ridden over from Milton Keynes to join her. She is currently about 230 miles up on Billie Dovey's pace and about 490 miles down on a 100mpd pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_02_07a.png)

Bruce has had a particularly difficult week, dealing with knee problems, a day without riding and a slow recovery while doubts remain about the official status of his record challenge. A few days of low mileage leaves him over 700 miles behind Kurt's record pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_02_07b.png)

(for comparison, Steve's August restart is shown as the thick red line, his January 2015 start the thinner line)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on February 17, 2016, 10:02:16 pm
dear Jo - could you give us an update with Kajsa's progress?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on February 17, 2016, 11:06:24 pm
Day 48. It has not been an easy couple of weeks for Kajsa with cold and wet winter days, a change in the rules from Guinness and tired legs that have required a visit from the physio. In the last week she has averaged around 72 mpd but despite her trials she remains well up on Billie's pace - around 197 miles above the Dovey line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_02_17.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on February 18, 2016, 09:03:11 am
lovely, ty

coming out of winter and being above the dovey line is excellent progress, imho
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on March 10, 2016, 07:59:15 am
Day 69: Kajsa has been making good progress in the last three weeks as the days get longer and the wind begins to drop. 33 century rides so far including 15 in the last 16 days. She has ridden around 6100 miles so far, averaging just over 88 miles per day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_03_09.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 07, 2016, 06:42:49 pm
I've been a bit neglectful in visualizing Kaja's progress in the challenge. As of Day 98 she's ridden (i) further than the diameter of the earth (by nearly 900 miles); (ii) 41 imperial centuries; (iii) further than all the 21st century OYTT challengers bar Kurt and Steve (that's IronOx, Miles and Bruce).

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_04_07.png)

Here's her heatmap so far

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ktHeatmap2016_04_07Small.jpg) (and a higher resolution version (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ktHeatmap2016_04_07.png)).
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: TimC on April 07, 2016, 11:03:16 pm
Brill, jo! I hope her current physical woes end soon and allow her to resume the upward trend.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on April 08, 2016, 08:06:20 am
I've been a bit neglectful in visualizing Kaja's progress in the challenge. As of Day 98 she's ridden (i) further than the diameter of the earth (by nearly 900 miles); (ii) 41 imperial centuries; (iii) further than all the 21st century OYTT challengers bar Kurt and Steve (that's IronOx, Miles and Bruce).

Can I post your words to her facebook page? They are remarkable stats and might give her a lift.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on April 08, 2016, 08:50:07 am
Sure. She might like the heatmap link too.

When I get some time I will update the gicentre.org/oytt page to scale the chart by default to show her and Billie's progress.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: DaveE128 on April 26, 2016, 02:15:46 pm
Hi Jo,

Just wondering whether you've decided to stop updating the visualisation permanently?

Thanks,

David
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 02, 2016, 08:06:51 am
No - I haven't given up. Things have just been very busy. I'm downloading Kajsa's last month of rides and will post something here shortly...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on May 02, 2016, 09:15:47 am
Thanks Jo. All the best with the busy-ness!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 02, 2016, 09:30:08 am
Kajsa started April with a couple of weeks of recovery riding to deal with ongoing leg issues, but then started to build up the miles again with six centuries in the last two weeks and the 10,000 milestone passed. She remains well above the Dovey line with the prospect of longer days and improved weather ahead.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_01.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 02, 2016, 03:32:25 pm
Here's Kajsa's heatmap up to May 1st. Since last month she has extended further north and into north Norfolk.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ktHeatmap2016_05_01Small.png)
(and the full sized image (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ktHeatmap2016_05_01.png))

Interesting to see how little her routes have crossed with Steve's. I guess in part because she is happier to do hilly routes that Steve was during his OYTT.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ktsaBlendedSmall.png)
(and the full sized image (http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ktsaBlended.png))

And here's Kajsa's movement chart for the first four months, with daylight/darkness shown. With a target of closer to 80mpd, she has been able to avoid riding in darkness for most of the year.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/kajsaMovement2016_05_01.png)

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: DaveE128 on May 03, 2016, 01:30:23 pm
Thanks for the update Jo!  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Marmitegeoff on May 04, 2016, 03:53:49 am
Many thanks Jo
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 04, 2016, 08:05:21 am
Here are the OYTT Eddington numbers including Kajsa up to 3rd May. With an E=80, she should overtake Billie Dovey's E=89 in the next couple of months.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/eddington2016_05_03.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on May 04, 2016, 09:10:31 am
What a variety of very beautiful presentations of summarised information! Wonderful!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 14, 2016, 10:08:42 am
Kasja made good progress in the recent sunny weather with five more centuries. Increasing wind and a snapped gear cable reduced mileage a little in the last few days, but she remains around 625 miles above the Dovey line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_13.png)

Her imperial Eddington  number creeps slowly towards Billie Dovey's, now at E=83. She requires another 23 rides of 90 miles or more to overtake Billie's E=89.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/eddington2016_05_13.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 16, 2016, 08:46:14 am
Day 1 (Amanda Coker) / Day 136 (Kajsa Tylen):

A stunning debut ride from Amanda Coker as she sends a strong message to HAM'R / OYTT / Guinness challengers. She rides 250 miles of repeats around Flatwoods Park, Florida at an average speed of 20 mph in 12 hours. This is further and faster than Kurt's opening day in 2015. Meanwhile Kajsa rides 109 miles from Nottingham to Peterborough as she prepares for her Scandinavian summer riding later this week.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_15.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 17, 2016, 07:20:43 am
Day 2 (Amanda Coker) / Day 137 (Kajsa Tylen):

Another very strong performance from Amanda as she clocks up 230 miles of Flatwood repeats at 19mph. After two days she is 64 miles ahead Kurt's WR pace. Kajsa heads south for another century ride from Peterborough to Chelmsford as she prepares to move to continental Europe.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_16.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 18, 2016, 06:33:02 am
Day 3 (Amanda Coker) / Day 138 (Kajsa Tylen):

Another 232 Flatwood miles from Amanda puts her 87 miles ahead of Kurt's WR pace. Her average speed has dropped a little but with an earlier start in the day she continues to make maximum use of the daylight hours. Kajsa continues her migration SE as she rides from Chelmsford, crossing the Thames estuary and through Kent for 96 miles. She is now 712 miles ahead of Billie Dovey's pace, which is the furthest she has been ahead this year.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_17.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 19, 2016, 07:44:35 am
Day 4 (Amanda Coker) / Day 139 (Kajsa Tylen):

A fourth day of over 230 miles from Amanda along the Flatwood trails. She has a moving average 1.2mph faster than Kurt so far, showing she has the strength for a very significant world record beating annual total. The coming weeks will tell us whether she has the endurance to match it. Kajsa hops over the channel from Dover to Dunkerque and ends up In Bruges after 72 miles of continental riding.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_18.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on May 19, 2016, 08:46:02 am
Fine riding! [And fine extra feature(s)!]
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 20, 2016, 06:54:08 am
Day 5 (Amanda Coker) / Day 140 (Kajsa Tylen):

Amanda adds 211 miles to now very familiar tracks in Flatwood Park taking her to 1162 miles in 5 days, 120 miles above Kurt's WR pace and over 750 miles above the Dovey line. Kajsa passes the 12,000 milestone with 116 miles along the North Sea coast of Belgium and the Netherlands ending her day in Delft.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_19.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on May 21, 2016, 08:08:28 am
That is very impressive!

As is your dedication to the visual representations, jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on May 21, 2016, 09:29:45 am
Fantastic info .. want to see what is going on .. look here.  Thanks so much.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 21, 2016, 09:35:25 am
Day 6 (Amanda Coker) / Day 141 (Kajsa Tylen):

Consistency seems to be Amanda's style with another 231 Flatwood miles to add to her already impressive total. Nearly 1400 miles in 6 days at an average speed of over 18mph taking her 142 miles above Kurt's WR pace and 906 above the Dovey line. Kajsa rides for 95 miles in the windy flatlands between Rotterdam, The Hague and Hoek van Holland edging her Eddington number ever closer to Billie Dovey's.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_20.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Cmiller on May 21, 2016, 04:26:31 pm
Great visuals as usual, Jo.
I do have one question- how do you compute moving average? When I total up Amanda's mileage and divide it by Strava's total moving time I come up with 18.99mph, while you show 18.2.

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on May 21, 2016, 06:14:00 pm
I am just stunned at the way this is developing .. an Audax style approach is in my opinion .. way off the pace  now. You need cracking bike speed, organised support, good location decisions, organised nutrition plans, good fortune with your health .. and of course good luck too.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 21, 2016, 07:32:20 pm
I do have one question- how do you compute moving average? When I total up Amanda's mileage and divide it by Strava's total moving time I come up with 18.99mph, while you show 18.2.

I use the GPS data to bin the distance moved into 5 minute chunks and then base the moving average on the number of those 5 minute chunks that show some movement over a few hundred metres. This means its can lower the moving speed value a little if there is some partial stoppage inside a 5 minute interval. On the other hand, it does reduce arbitrary distance/speed produced by a 'wandering GPS' when the device is stationary.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 22, 2016, 08:30:22 am
Day 7 (Amanda Coker) / Day 142 (Kajsa Tylen):

Kajsa does her first 200km day in rather fine conditions as she rides from Holland to Friesland including the impressive 30km Afsluitdijk (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afsluitdijk). She is now around 795km above the Dovey line. Amanda puts in another remarkable 233 mile day on the same stretch of Flatwood Park trails. She has accumulated 1625 miles in her first week. This is the third highest weekly total of any of the modern HAMR/OYTT challengers and only short of the top spot by 10 miles. She is now 166 miles ahead of world record pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_21.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 23, 2016, 07:10:28 am
Day 8 (Amanda Coker) / Day 143 (Kajsa Tylen):

More Flatwood repeats for Amanda - 220 miles of them - sees her lengthen her lead over Kurt's WR pace to 178 miles. Her average riding speed is also increasing steadily and is the fastest of all the modern record challengers. Kajsa tours Friesland for 85 miles taking her to around 800 miles above the Dovey line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_22.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 23, 2016, 07:16:11 am
Kajsa continues to increase her 2016 imperial Eddington number. She currently stands at E=86 miles, requiring

4 more days of 87 miles or more for E=87
8 more days of 88 miles or more for E=88
11 more days of 89 miles or more for E=89 (Billie Dovey's 1938 Eddington number)
16 more days of 90 miles or more for E=90

and

42 more days of 100 miles or more for E=100

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/eddington2016_05_22.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 24, 2016, 07:15:18 am
Day 9 (Amanda Coker) / Day 144 (Kajsa Tylen):

233 more miles of Flatwood riding from Amanda takes her to 2078 miles in nine days. Her average speed continues to increase too. If she were able to keep this up she is going to blow the world record apart. Kajsa rides across the north of the Netherlands in the rain through Groningen and on to the German border, accumulating another century plus ride and crossing the 20,000km mark.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_23.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Auntie Helen on May 24, 2016, 05:44:42 pm
This is turning into such a fascinating event, with two very different riders (as last year with Steve and Kurt). Thanks Jo for all your work in summarising it!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 25, 2016, 07:20:21 am
Day 10 (Amanda Coker) / Day 145 (Kajsa Tylen):

Amanda keeps on keeping on with 216 more miles and an increasing average speed. After ten days she has ridden 2294 miles and is 209 miles ahead of world record pace. That is one day's riding in hand. Early days yet, but at her current rate she would take Kurt's record before the end of November month 11.

Kajsa continues her northern European tour crossing Bremerhaven to Bad Bederkesa for another 84 miles on her total. She is now 823 miles ahead of Billie Dovey's record pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_24.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on May 25, 2016, 08:06:06 am
   Keats seems to have had foreknowledge of these graphics when he wrote

  "Beauty is truth, truth beauty," – that is all
  Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on May 25, 2016, 01:55:32 pm
. Early days yet, but at her current rate she would take Kurt's record before the end of November.

I suspect that this might be true for a 1st Jan start .. but Amanda only started mid May
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 26, 2016, 07:44:59 am
Day 11 (Amanda Coker) / Day 146 (Kajsa Tylen):

Another good day for Amanda as she rides 233 miles with a moving average over 19mph. Kajsa has her longest day yet at 125 miles as she rides north out of Germany towards the Danish border. She is currently 867 miles ahead of the Dovey line and around 300 miles ahead of a 50,000km year pace.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_25.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 27, 2016, 07:05:02 am
Day 12 (Amanda Coker) / Day 147 (Kajsa Tylen):

231 more miles for Amanda as she adds a little more variety to her Flatwood trails riding. Her rate of progress is looking rather special with an unprecedented start taking her almost as far ahead of the new WR pace as Kurt achieved at his strongest point in the year. Kajsa rides an undulating loop of northern Germany for 66 miles, keeping enticing roads of Scandinavia for another day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_26.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 28, 2016, 07:52:23 am
Day 13 (Amanda Coker) / Day 148 (Kajsa Tylen):

Amanda's repeats of the Flatwoods trails become loops as a new paved section is opened up. Her 216 miles for the day take her to 264 above Kurt's WR pace. Kajsa leaves Germany behind and rides 111 miles of glorious Danish roads - her 61st century of the year.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_27.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 29, 2016, 07:00:04 am
Day 14 (Amanda Coker) / Day 149 (Kajsa Tylen):

Two weeks in to her HAMR challenge, 220 more Flatwood miles leave Amanda's average distance at 228 miles per day and puts her 276 miles in front of world record pace. Kajsa rides 76 miles NE through Denmark heading towards Copenhagen. Despite tired legs she remains around 875 miles ahead of the Dovey line and on track for an annual distance in excess of 50,000km.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_28.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 30, 2016, 07:06:24 pm
Day 15 (Amanda Coker) / Day 150 (Kajsa Tylen):

Amanda continues to ride strongly doing loops of Flatwoods park at a consistent pace of around 19.5 mph for 231 miles. Kajsa does another tour of eastern Denmark today for 72 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_29.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Chris S on May 30, 2016, 08:42:57 pm
At current average rates, how long before Amanda "overtakes" Kajsa?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Vince on May 30, 2016, 08:45:17 pm
<pedant>She won't - they are doing different records.</pedant>
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Chris S on May 30, 2016, 08:49:00 pm
<pedant>She won't - they are doing different records.</pedant>

Hmm, I did wonder that after I posed the question.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Mileater on May 30, 2016, 09:44:32 pm
<pedant>She won't - they are doing different records.</pedant>

Incorrect. Guinness has agreed to accept UMCA record-keeping for the Year Record (they certified Kurt Searvogel). So Amanda is going head-head against Kajsa for the Female World Record... and quite possibly for the overall title as well.

However, Kajsa does not qualify for the UMCA HAM'R record as she never registered with them.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Cmiller on May 30, 2016, 11:22:28 pm
<pedant>She won't - they are doing different records.</pedant>

Incorrect. Guinness has agreed to accept UMCA record-keeping for the Year Record (they certified Kurt Searvogel). So Amanda is going head-head against Kajsa for the Female World Record... and quite possibly for the overall title as well.


While I agree, I find it all very strange... What if a person decided to have Guinness *and* the UMCA verify their record, and then it was rejected by Guinness for either lacking documentation or a rules violation? Would they then accept the UMCA approved submission for the same record attempt?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Vince on May 31, 2016, 02:15:00 am
<pedant>She won't - they are doing different records.</pedant>

Incorrect. Guinness has agreed to accept UMCA record-keeping for the Year Record (they certified Kurt Searvogel). So Amanda is going head-head against Kajsa for the Female World Record... and quite possibly for the overall title as well.

However, Kajsa does not qualify for the UMCA HAM'R record as she never registered with them.
I don't think so.
Guinness did accept the men's record UMCA, but will be maintaining their own rules for the women's record as Kajsa had already agreed the rules with Guinness prior to starting her own attempt.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Cmiller on May 31, 2016, 02:36:45 am

I don't think so.
Guinness did accept the men's record UMCA, but will be maintaining their own rules for the women's record as Katja had already agreed the rules with Guinness prior to starting her own attempt.

Do you really think Guinness is going to reject a successful women's UMCA record attempt after validating a man's under the same rules?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Vince on May 31, 2016, 03:37:54 am
Time will tell.
They have already changed the rules for the women's record twice. Unpaced rules, then UMCA rules, then back to the unpaced rules.
Kajsa's record is based on unpaced rules, Amanda's on UMCA rules: They are going for different records.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on May 31, 2016, 07:46:07 am
Day 16 (Amanda Coker) / Day 151 (Kajsa Tylen):

218 miles for Amanda in Flatwood while Kajsa has a windy 82 miles now in Sweden.

Extrapolating wildly based on their average daily rates to date, we might expect Kajsa and Amanda to reach 19,000 miles on the same day in early August. This does of course assume there are no major changes in progress, which for a challenge of this scale is far from assured.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_30.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 01, 2016, 09:29:41 am
Day 17 (Amanda Coker) / Day 152 (Kajsa Tylen):

The machine that is Amanda rides another 220 miles of Flatwoods. She is now 2484 miles ahead of Billie Dovey's record pace and 319 miles ahead of Kurt's WR rate. Kajsa has more headwind in southern Sweden to contend with as she rides east from Malmö for 84 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_05_31.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on June 01, 2016, 03:30:47 pm

The machine that is Amanda ...

I think you've summed her up perfectly there!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 02, 2016, 07:29:16 am
Day 18 (Amanda Coker) / Day 153 (Kajsa Tylen):

230 miles of Flatwood back and forth for Amanda sees her with 4093 miles in two and half weeks with nothing to indicate she won't smash the world record before her year's out. Kajsa calls an early halt after 51 miles as strong winds in the flat southern Swedish landscape make progress tough. She remains a few days ahead of the pace required for a 50kkm annual total.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_01.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 03, 2016, 07:31:32 am
Day 19 (Amanda Coker) / Day 154 (Kajsa Tylen):

The miles just keep rolling past for Amanda, as she adds another 232 miles to her total. Since she started she has been riding around 19 miles per day further than Kurt's WR pace. Kajsa rides for 109 miles on the island of Öland – a virtual cutout of Vättern she will be circumnavigating later in the month. Her century ride nudges up her Eddington number to 87.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_02.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on June 04, 2016, 09:37:02 am
Just hang on - it's June. Wasn't Kurt somewhere up in Wisconsin by this time last year? What is the temperature in Florida at the moment?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/miami-fl/33128/june-weather/347936

 :o
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 04, 2016, 08:23:40 pm
Day 20 (Amanda Coker) / Day 155 (Kajsa Tylen):

The day before Alicia Searvogel enters the challenge, two longer rides from Amanda (234 miles) and Kajsa (111 miles) lifting their positions above the Dovey line to 900 and 2936 miles respectively.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_03.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 05, 2016, 08:44:26 am
Day 21 (Amanda Coker) / Day 156 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 1 (Alicia Searvogel):

More monster miles from 'manda on her familiar roads – 233 of them, taking her three week total to 4791. That's a weekly average of nearly 1600 miles. Kajsa has more Öland fun as she clocks up another 89 miles. Another 7 more rides of that distance or greater and she will equal Billie Dovey's annual Eddington number E=89. Alicia Searvogel joins the HAMR/OYTT/Guinness challengers with a solid start. She rides the Tour de Rock on home turf in Little Rock Arkansas followed by an afternoon warmdown in the rain for a day one total of 125 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_04.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on June 05, 2016, 10:11:40 am
Just hang on - it's June. Wasn't Kurt somewhere up in Wisconsin by this time last year? What is the temperature in Florida at the moment?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/miami-fl/33128/june-weather/347936

 :o
Hot - her mum and dad were out on the course pouring iced water down the rider's backs.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 06, 2016, 07:13:23 am
Day 22 (Amanda Coker) / Day 157 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 2 (Alicia Searvogel):

Amanda's longest day yet as she rides an incredible 266 miles in under 15 hours taking her total distance to 5058 miles in little over three weeks. Should she be able to keep up the pace of the first three weeks (230 miles per day), she would reach an annual total of nearly 84,000 miles, increasing the world record by 10%. Meanwhile Kajsa continues to explore Öland with another century ride. Alicia also adds another 105 miles of Little Rock riding on her second day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_05.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 07, 2016, 07:20:53 am
Day 23 (Amanda Coker) / Day 158 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 3 (Alicia Searvogel):

Amanda faces the first, and probably not the last, tropical storm with very heavy rain and wind but nevertheless manages 162 miles. Combined with her long ride the day before she has still managed to gain a further 10 miles over Kurt's WR pace. Kajsa sticks to Öland with another 96 miles of riding. Alicia rides the river trail for 94 miles tracking just ahead of Kajsa's first few days.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_06.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 08, 2016, 07:55:21 am
Day 24 (Amanda Coker) / Day 159 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 4 (Alicia Searvogel):

Bad weather stops play in Florida for a while as floods and tornado warnings from tropical storm Colin (yes, Colin) mean a late start for Amanda. Nevertheless she manages to fit in 167 miles of fast riding in the afternoon keeping her 384 miles above world record pace. Kajsa cracks a tooth before her ride so has to cut her ride a little short at 89 miles to fit in a dentist's appointment. Alicia rides her third Little Rock century in four days putting her 101 miles above the Dovey line.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_07.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 09, 2016, 07:46:58 am
Day 25 (Amanda Coker) / Day 160 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 5 (Alicia Searvogel):

GPS problems and flooded trails conspire to add interest to Amanda's day in Flatwood but they don't stop her from another fast 234 miles. She's currently 410 miles ahead of WR pace. Kajsa has her final day on Öland and bags another century, or 111 miles to be precise. She's not far off a 1000 mile lead over the Dovey line. Alicia has a bit of slow morning and then pedal problems cut her afternoon ride short for a total of 84 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_08.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 10, 2016, 07:20:55 am
Day 26 (Amanda Coker) / Day 161 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 6 (Alicia Searvogel):

Another wet day of riding in Flatwoods for Amanda and another 234 miles to match. She is now two days or 424 miles ahead of Kurt's WR pace. Kajsa moves back to the southern Swedish mainland for a 110 mile coastal ride to Kalmar taking her over 1000 miles in front of Billie Dovey's pace. Another century ticked off too for Alicia in Little Rock.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_09.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on June 10, 2016, 08:08:10 am
Jo

Thanks as ever for keeping us up to date. 
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 12, 2016, 06:56:45 am
Day 27 (Amanda Coker) / Day 162 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 7 (Alicia Searvogel):

More rain and flood diversions for Amanda, not that any of that stops her from completing another 225 miles. Kajsa has a colder and wetter day in remote southern Sweden than anticipated and so keeps it short at 49 miles. Alicia does 103 Little Rock miles for an average in her first week of 97 miles per day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_10.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 12, 2016, 06:57:14 am
Day 28 (Amanda Coker) / Day 163 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 8 (Alicia Searvogel):

The high river and recent rain means that Amanda is the only current challenger who is having to deal with the hazard of alligators but survives the day uneaten with another 226 miles. Over the first four weeks she has accumulated over 6,300 miles and is 489 miles ahead of world record pace. Kajsa rides west over lumpy Swedish terrain for 86 miles leaving her 984 miles in front of Dovey pace. Alicia appears to have settled into a routine of two rides a day around Little Rock with the day's total weighing in at 107 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_11.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: JennyB on June 12, 2016, 09:23:58 am
Amanda is very close to Verne .75 pace - the equivalent of three quarters of the way around the world in 80 days.  :o
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 13, 2016, 07:42:13 am
Day 29 (Amanda Coker) / Day 164 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 9 (Alicia Searvogel):

Friends and buzzards provide some distraction for Amanda on the same stretch of trails she has now ridden on for 6517 miles, 212 of which in the last day. Kajsa moves to the west coast of southern Sweden for a windy 91 miles. She is now one 89 mile ride away from equalling Billie Dovey's annual Eddington number and six 90 mile rides from exceeding it. Should she wish, she needs 34 centuries this year to accumulate 100 rides of 100 miles or more. Alicia rides the Little Rock river trail again for 115 miles and a total so far of 900.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_12.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 14, 2016, 07:29:03 am
Day 30 (Amanda Coker) / Day 165 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 10 (Alicia Searvogel):

One month of riding for Amanda and her ride of 235 miles takes her 500 miles ahead of world record pace. If she were to carry on at this rate she would have an annual total of around 82,000 miles smashing Kurt's record by 6000 miles. Kajsa rides 98 miles north on along the coast to Gothenburg. Her annual Eddington number (89) now equals that of Billy Dovey but achieved in less than 6 months. Alicia rides another 100 taking her to 1005 miles in 10 days.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_13.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 15, 2016, 07:37:58 am
Day 31 (Amanda Coker) / Day 166 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 11 (Alicia Searvogel):

231 miles from Amanda taking her average over the first month to just over 225 miles per day – quite a benchmark for any future challengers. Kajsa rides from Gothenburg to Onsala and back for 76 mile trip keeping her over 1000 miles ahead of Dovey pace. Alicia rides her recumbent along her usual routes for another 106 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_14.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 16, 2016, 07:43:39 am
Day 32 (Amanda Coker) / Day 167 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 12 (Alicia Searvogel):

Amanda rides another 221 miles. It may be routine for her now, but riding this distance day after day has probably only been achieved by a handful of people. Ever. Kajsa eases off with 66 miles from Gothenburg in preparation for the 300km of Vätternrundan super-sportif. Alicia fits in three rides for a 126 mile total keeping her daily average above 100 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_15.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on June 16, 2016, 05:49:15 pm
When Steve and Kurt were battling it out 18 months ago I thought we were witnessing the extremes of human endurance on two wheels. So far, Amanda is a whole level above them. I do hope she can maintain it for another 11 months.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 17, 2016, 07:26:10 am
Day 33 (Amanda Coker) / Day 168 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 13 (Alicia Searvogel):

Another 228 miles for Amanda as she rides into her second month with the consistent high speed she has maintained throughout her challenge so far. No signs that she is tiring as she enters the phase of the challenge where body fatigue can start to show. Kajsa rides 41 miles around the north shore of Vättern heading towards Motala and the start of Vätternrundan with 20,000 other riders. Alicia adds another 101 miles to her total with 10 centuries in 13 days.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_16.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 18, 2016, 04:43:37 pm
Day 34 (Amanda Coker) / Day 169 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 14 (Alicia Searvogel):

Amanda rides yet another 227 miles of Flatwood with no sign of letting up either distance or speed. Kajsa sets off at five in the evening on Vätternrundan riding 78 miles by midnight with another 118 to go to complete the 300km tour of Sweden's second largest lake. Two weeks in for Alicia and her pedal comes off (literally, not metaphorically) forcing her to finish the last 5 miles of her 99 mile day pedalling with one leg only.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_17.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 19, 2016, 10:45:22 pm
Day 35 (Amanda Coker) / Day 170 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 15 (Alicia Searvogel):

Amanda puts 225 more miles in the HAMR bank. Kajsa completes Vätternrundan, 131 miles of which were between midnight and mid morning. Alicia has her furthest day yet with 131 miles on her usual roads.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_18.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 20, 2016, 08:27:43 am
Day 36 (Amanda Coker) / Day 171 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 16 (Alicia Searvogel):

One of her longer days for Amanda as she rides for 234 miles taking her average to 225.5 miles per day. Kajsa rides north from Motala for 62 miles. She is now a long way further north than any of the previous record challengers, but if you're going to ride that far north you might as well do it around the summer solstice. Alicia has three rides on her usual routes totalling 106 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_19.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on June 20, 2016, 08:49:13 am
So many stories told elegantly by those lines!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 21, 2016, 08:02:14 am
Day 37 (Amanda Coker) / Day 172 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 17 (Alicia Searvogel):

Another 231 miles for Amanda taking her 636 miles in front of Kurt's WR pace. Kajsa continues her Scandinavian migration north with a 112 mile ride to Gävle. Amanda reports another century ride although currently 67 miles logged on Strava.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_20.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Justin(e) on June 21, 2016, 02:45:36 pm
So many stories told elegantly by those lines!

Poetry as a wiggle on a page.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 22, 2016, 07:22:55 am
Day 38 (Amanda Coker) / Day 173 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 18 (Alicia Searvogel):

For the longest day of the year for all the northern hemisphere riders Amanda rides another 230 miles. Alicia takes advantage of the 'Strawberry Moon' and does a nighttime century and then some to give her her longest ride yet at 133 miles. Kajsa rides ever northward along the east coast of Sweden. A bit of a tumble but no bones broken leaves her with 80 miles for the day.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_21.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 23, 2016, 07:20:44 am
Day 39 (Amanda Coker) / Day 174 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 19 (Alicia Searvogel):

223 more miles for Amanda takes her to just over 8800 miles in her first 39 days. Kajsa continues to head north along the Swedish coast, today for 92 miles. Alicia in an attempt to avoid the worst of the day's heat starts early, breaks midday and rounds off with an evening ride, all for a total of exactly 100 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_22.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on June 24, 2016, 09:13:39 am
I've lost the will to say much today, so here are the last two record holders and possibly the next one:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_06_23.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on June 24, 2016, 09:44:59 am
I've lost the will to say much today....]

You don't need to, Jo... you should feel very free not to!
(And you still included a pithy comment.)
Ongoing thanks.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on June 24, 2016, 08:51:21 pm
The straightness of Amanda's line so far is noticeable, apart from the blip around a tropical storm.  Perhaps that's because setting off in the summer months she has had less dark cold and wet to deal with, but more likely I am guessing that she is on top of things and riding within her capabilities.  Wow!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 03, 2016, 12:05:38 pm
Day 49 (Amanda Coker) / Day 184 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 29 (Alicia Searvogel):

Over the last 10 days Kajsa has followed the northern coast of the Baltic from Sweden into Finland; ridden under the midnight sun; passed her half way mark in both distance and time; suffered saddle problems and OYTT blues but continues to stay ahead of both the Dovey line and her personal 50,000km target. Amanda continues strongly, passing 10,000 miles and keeping up an average of over 226 miles per day. Alicia keeps to her target of averaging a century a day now with 23 days out of 29 where she has ridden at least 100 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_07_02b.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_07_02a.png)

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 04, 2016, 07:38:30 am
Day 50 (Amanda Coker) / Day 185 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 30 (Alicia Searvogel):

Another 232 hot and humid miles for Amanda continues her consistent path towards a new world record. Kajsa rides southwest from Stockholm over lumpy and wet terrain for 80 miles taking her past 13,000 for the year. Alicia gets her riding in early to avoid the worst of the heat and clocks up another century.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_07_03.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 05, 2016, 07:42:33 am
Day 51 (Amanda Coker) / Day 186 (Kajsa Tyler) / Day 31 (Alicia Searvogel):

Another day, another 231 miles for Amanda. Kajsa continues to head south through Sweden with a further 86 rainy miles. Alicia does a long one with two Little Rock rides totalling 137 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_07_04.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on July 05, 2016, 08:09:24 am
Amanda is doing amazingly well. She seems to be finding mental fortitude through the sheer joy of putting the miles in.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jsabine on July 05, 2016, 08:40:45 am
Her daily distances seem so astonishingly consistent too - I guess that's a product of riding a consistent circuit.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Cmiller on July 05, 2016, 03:31:07 pm
Thanks for the updates, Jo. I though we lost you there for a bit...
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on July 29, 2016, 06:09:20 pm
It's been a while (real life and all that). But here is the latest from our 2016 riders. Amanda is sufficiently far ahead now that she needs a separate chart...

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_07_28.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_07_29.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on July 29, 2016, 08:21:08 pm
Thanks Jo, as beautiful and welcome as ever!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Cmiller on July 30, 2016, 05:17:19 am
Thanks Jo, as beautiful and welcome as ever!

And I second that. Can't imagine the time it took to create this, and then on top of that, to keep it updated. Thank you!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on July 30, 2016, 09:25:03 am
great to see the update .. MANY THANKS for your work .. much appreciated
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 06, 2016, 09:21:25 am
Day 83 (Amanda Coker) / Day 218 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 63 (Alicia Searvogel):

Kajsa, after being back in the UK for a couple of weeks has been riding consistently around 85-100 miles per day building up a good buffer for her 50,000km target. Amanda has been slowly increasing her weekly total and now has passed Kajsa's annual distance so far. She has currently ridden 18,937 miles compared with Kajsa's 18,839. Alicia continues to knock out 100 miles per day in Little Rock but is shortly due to move her riding up to Wisconsin.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_08_05a.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_08_05b.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/eddington2016_08_05.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: rabbit on August 06, 2016, 09:33:30 am
Thanks Jo!

Still my first point of call when coming on the forum. You're graphics and summaries are, as always, much appreciated.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 10, 2016, 08:38:10 am
Day 87 (Amanda Coker) / Day 222 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 67 (Alicia Searvogel):

Kajsa keeps edging away from the Dovey line, currently 1194 miles ahead and with three centuries in the last five days. She should hit the 20,000 milestone in 9-10 days' time. Alicia has now moved to Wisconsin for her rides, as Kurt did in the hotter months. She maintains her consistent 100 miles per day target and is 1355 miles above the Dovey line.

Amanda has ridden at least 230 miles every day in the last 16 days, ever increasing her daily average. She should pass the 20,000 milestone tomorrow. Barring significant incidents (and bear in mind we have not yet hit Florida's peak hurricane season yet), I predict she will take the world record distance at least a full month before her year is up. Her average to date would see her pass Kurt around 13th April 2017 (32 days ahead) and achieve a total of about 83,350 miles. Her more recent average, which is around 233 miles per day, would see her pass Kurt on 8th April (37 days ahead) and hit a year's total of about 84,600 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_08_09.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on August 11, 2016, 11:15:38 am
Great work .. and your analysis and summaries are much appreciated. THX
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: The French Tandem on August 11, 2016, 12:25:38 pm
Day 87 (Amanda Coker) / Day 222 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 67 (Alicia Searvogel):

Barring significant incidents (and bear in mind we have not yet hit Florida's peak hurricane season yet), I predict she will take the world record distance at least a full month before her year is up. Her average to date would see her pass Kurt around 13th April 2017 (32 days ahead) and achieve a total of about 83,350 miles. Her more recent average, which is around 233 miles per day, would see her pass Kurt on 8th April (37 days ahead) and hit a year's total of about 84,600 miles.

I certainly don't want to minimize what Amanda is doing now, but we have to accept that all record candidates until now have done shorter rides in January/February. Amanda has not yet passed through this difficult period of the year.Having said that, I wish her all the best!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on August 11, 2016, 01:01:50 pm
Amanda posted a short ride due to storms, only 165 miles.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Chris S on August 11, 2016, 03:43:34 pm
Amanda posted a short ride due to storms, only 165 miles.

Surely she's going to move elsewhere for the rainy (rainier) season?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on August 12, 2016, 07:40:39 am
Day 89 (Amanda Coker) / Day 224 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 69 (Alicia Searvogel):

Kajsa has ridden a 98 and 85 miler in the last couple of days which puts her 1215 miles above the Dovey line – the furthest she has been ahead of Billie since she started. Only around 620 miles (lest than one PBP) to go until she passes 20,000. Alicia is building up a buffer over her target of 100 mpd and just reaches the 7000 milestone at the end of her ride along the western edge of Lake Michigan.
Amanda has been having some wet and windy weather of late but puts the previous day's storm behind her to complete another 230 mile day. It is notable that when her rides are disrupted by major weather events, she loses less distance than the setbacks that have affected other riders.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_08_11b.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_08_11a.png)

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 04, 2016, 11:55:30 am
Day 112 (Amanda Coker) / Day 247 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 92 (Alicia Searvogel)

I wonder if NOAA have considered using Amanda as monitor of Florida extreme weather. Here's here progress to date. The unnamed tropical weather event around August 10th could be regarded as a Perfect Storm as it coincided with Amanda celebrating 20,000 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/ac2016_09_03.png)

Meanwhile Kajsa continues to make good progress with three centuries in the last three days. Alicia is well above the Dovey line but has struggled a little recently with a leg injury and travels away from Little Rock so is just behind her personal 100mpd target.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_03.png)


Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 06, 2016, 07:36:32 am
Day 114 (Amanda Coker) / Day 249 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 94 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 5 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Big miles September. Kajsa and Alicia aim for at least 100mpd, Steve goes for the month record and Amanda continues her relentless push for a new world record. Kajsa squeezes in an interview with East Midlands Today between 100 miles from Grantham. Steve adds another 238 miles on a Fenland loop taking him 86 miles ahead of target. Alicia recovering from her leg injury still manages 102 Little Rock miles and Amanda does what Amanda does with another 241 miles of her Florida loops.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_05.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 08, 2016, 04:44:57 pm
Kajsa's European footprint after 250 days of riding...

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/tylenDensity2016_09_08.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 08, 2016, 05:46:37 pm
And Amanda's Flatwoods footprint after 25,000 miles of cycling

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/cokerDensity2016_09_08.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 08, 2016, 08:08:46 pm
And Alicia's riding split between Little Rock Arkansas, Wisconsin and between

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/asearvogelDensity2016_09_08.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 10, 2016, 10:16:39 pm
An update on the riders' annual Eddington numbers:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/eddington2016_09_10.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: jsabine on September 11, 2016, 12:55:17 am
And again, Amanda's remarkable consistency shows through.

Eddington number: 117
Days ridden: 118
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 11, 2016, 09:01:42 am
Day 119 (Amanda Coker) / Day 254 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 99 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 10 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Amanda keeps going with her 7th consecutive day of 240+ miles (is she perhaps sending a message to Steve and his month challenge?). Kajsa has been heading SW in the last few days riding in Gloucestershire with some YACFers. She dipped a little below 100 miles on one day but otherwise has managed 9 centuries in the first 10 days of September. Alicia has been going though a bit of a tougher time with a ongoing aches in her quads and some fatigue. Perhaps the same 100 day blues that also affected Kajsa earlier in the year. Steve is half way though the Flatlands 600 audax and is currently around 64 miles ahead of his month challenge target of 233mpd.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_10.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on September 11, 2016, 09:52:27 am
Day 119 (Amanda Coker) / Day 254 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 99 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 10 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Amanda keeps going with her 7th consecutive day of 240+ miles (is she perhaps sending a message to Steve and his month challenge?).
It's hurricane season where she is riding and she's had to take one 'rest' day of 50 miles due to weather. I suspect she is banking extra miles on every day of good weather when her body is feeling up to it.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Arry-R on September 11, 2016, 11:38:12 am
Many Jo for all your excellent work  - much appreciated
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 11, 2016, 11:43:25 am
MrCharly, you may be right. I am sure that all riders think about banking miles when the going is good to make up for those rainy days. However, I know Amanda is well aware of Steve's month challenge and I was conscious that she does seem to have switched from averaging just below Steve's target to just above it since he started on September 2nd (Steve's target of 233 miles per day in red, Amanda's daily mileage in purple):

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/amandaDaily.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: road-runner on September 11, 2016, 03:56:39 pm
It looks like Amanda has a healthy amount of competitiveness in her which is unhelpful for other contenders.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 12, 2016, 06:33:02 am
I think the competition between Amanda and Steve enlivens the challenge. After all it is quite likely that Amanda will take the world record by some margin and that Steve will be the most likely person to threaten that record next year.

Since Steve started his month record attempt, he has averaged 241 miles per day. Amanda has managed 237 mpd over the same period and 240 mpd if you exclude 2nd September with the tail of Hurricane Hermine. Even though Amanda's September total won't be an official record, I have no doubt that they are both sizing each other up this month.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: yanto on September 12, 2016, 06:50:41 am
Jo, I am continually thankful for the work you have put into to showing in an easy format the endeavours of all the cyclists over some considerable period of time now, I pop in everyday hoping you've found time to produce an update.

I have a question though, which basically stems from my lack of understanding of the "Eddington Number", but can you explain how the graph showing it should be read? I'm struggling to make any meaning out of it.

Ian
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 12, 2016, 07:32:43 am
An Eddington Number (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Eddington#Eddington_number_for_cycling) E is the largest value where a cyclist has ridden E days of at least E miles. For example over your lifetime you might have ridden over 120 miles in a day on 120 separate occasions. One of its characteristics is that larger Eddington numbers are much much harder to achieve than slightly smaller ones (moving from E=120 to E=121 isn't just about riding one extra day at 121 miles, but ensuring you have 121 days where you have ridden at least 121 miles). For the OYTT challengers, I have been recording not the lifetime Eddington numbers, but their annual ones, for which larger numbers are harder still to achieve.

The Eddington chart shows the frequency of ride lengths for each rider. So for example, following Amanda's purple line from left to right shows that she has ridden at least 5, 10, 15...50 miles on 118 occasions (the vertical position of the line). It dips down by one ride at the 55 mile mark indicating that on 117 days she has ridden at least 55, 60, 65...160 miles. It then dips downward indicating that she had ridden progressively fewer days with longer rides with only a couple of days when she has ridden 260 miles or so.

The Eddington number can be found on the chart by looking along the diagonal line where the value on the horizontal axis (distance) is equal to the value on the vertical axis (number of days). Where the frequency line intersects that diagonal, the Eddington number is highlighted with a small circle.

The shape of the line for each rider gives an indication of how their Eddington number is likely to change in the future. Amanda's purple line shows that her E is limited simply by the number of days she has ridden so far. For every extra day she rides at the current rate she is likely to increase her E by 1 until she hits around 230 days (because she has been riding at least 230 miles almost every day). In contrast, the steep fall off for Kajsa means that her rate of increase will be much less day by day (because she has already ridden more days than the number of miles in a typical day). She has to ride longer distances than she has been to move up that diagonal line. In fact that is precisely what she is doing this month, aiming to ride at least 100 miles per day, so we can expect her to hit E=100 in a couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on September 12, 2016, 05:25:10 pm
If Steve and Amanda are indeed eyeing each other up, that's one hell of a 1000-yard stare.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Nuncio on September 12, 2016, 10:02:46 pm
Amanda's comment on Steve's ride 4 days ago (on Strava):
Quote
It's definitely cool to have a "riding partner" this month. ;) Keep up the good work!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on September 12, 2016, 10:20:01 pm
That's very nice! I have had a glance at Strava to see what distances Steve has ben posting, but haven't bothered with the comments since that cretin "Adam Day" was bad-mouthing people.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 14, 2016, 07:42:40 am
Day 122 (Amanda Coker) / Day 257 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 102 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 13 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

The unspoken September competition between Steve and Amanda continues with Steve currently averaging 238.2 miles per day and Amanda with 238.6 miles per day over the same period. As far as Steve's month target goes he remains 58 miles ahead of his target pace.

Kajsa adds a couple more centuries and a further ride just below the 100 easing her away from Billie's summer distances. Alicia is back to riding centuries following a bit of a rough patch, but will have a little work to do to edge herself back onto her 100 mpd average.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_13.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 17, 2016, 12:52:51 pm
Day 125 (Amanda Coker) / Day 260 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 105 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 15 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Some big miles from all riders in the last few days. Alicia breaks through 10,000 miles with a day of 158 miles followed by a couple more century rides. Kajsa rides three more centuries taking her annual Eddington number to 99. She should reach E=100 in the next 4 or 5 days. Amanda is also a matter of a few days from taking Billie's record as she gradually eases up her daily totals, currently 240-250 mpd.

After a couple of comparatively shorter days, Steve puts in a big ride of 267 miles in the rain to bring his monthly total to 3566 miles at the half way point.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_16b.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_16a.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 17, 2016, 12:59:05 pm
The competition between Amanda and Steve in September is proving interesting. There is no doubt that Amanda has increased her daily mileage at the same time as Steve tries for a UMCA month record. At the half way point, Steve is averaging 238.2 mpd while Amanda is at 238.6 mpd. With Steve choosing different routes depending on the changeable weather his distances are less consistent than Amanda's but he is on track to take the official record. As to who actually rides further in September, the competition remains wide open.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/monthDay15.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Wowbagger on September 17, 2016, 03:11:00 pm
That's a fascinating struggle! Assuming Steve has the fuel in the tank, as it were, he might be able to launch a "sprint finish" to the month, in the knowledge that he can have a rest for a while afterwards, whereas Amanda will have to carry on for quite a few more months yet.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 17, 2016, 06:35:29 pm
Yes, although Amanda has the advantage in that Steve effectively has to run the race twice. For every additional mile she rides, Steve will have to do the same both this month and next year.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: sg37409 on September 17, 2016, 08:16:13 pm
That's a fascinating struggle!

Indeed. Enjoying following this one.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: danridesbikes on September 17, 2016, 11:44:18 pm
Quote
Yes, although Amanda has the advantage in that Steve effectively has to run the race twice. For every additional mile she rides, Steve will have to do the same both this month and next year.

she's putting the year on the shelf though should this continue,

whatever she does, if he goes again will his target be hers if she gets it, or Tommys, as it was?

Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: The French Tandem on September 18, 2016, 08:47:53 am
whatever she does, if he goes again will his target be hers if she gets it, or Tommys, as it was?

What would be the point of targeting Tommy's record, since Kurt has already beaten this record? Unless Steve wants to fall into sub-categories (on a steel frame, audax-style, unsupported, in Britain, and so and so), but I don't think this is a good idea!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 18, 2016, 09:40:49 am
Day 126 (Amanda Coker) / Day 261 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 106 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 16 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_17b.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_17a.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/monthDay16.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Fidgetbuzz on September 18, 2016, 04:39:51 pm
If I read the bottom graph correctly .. in the last 10 days .. Steve has been below daily target 7 times and on or above just 3 times. His cum average has been declining ever since the big day 1 ride .. and although still above the target average has been getting closer and closer to it. I would suggest that Steve needs good calm weather for the next fortnight to crack this record
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 18, 2016, 05:35:56 pm
Because Steve started with very high mileage on his first day it is inevitable that his cumulative average will regress downwards towards the mean, so that in itself is not necessarily worrying. But his rolling 4-day average has been below target in the last 8 days which means, as you say, he will have to step up a little in the coming days. He does remain above target (by 33 miles), but he has been steadily eating into the advantage he built up in the first week.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mattc on September 18, 2016, 06:59:39 pm
whatever she does, if he goes again will his target be hers if she gets it, or Tommys, as it was?

What would be the point of targeting Tommy's record, since Kurt has already beaten this record? Unless Steve wants to fall into sub-categories (on a steel frame, audax-style, unsupported, in Britain, and so and so), but I don't think this is a good idea!
It wouldn't be at all odd to tackle a "UK" record. Conditions are so different across the globe that I think it's far more credible than "on a steel frame, audax-style, [or]  unsupported". And pretty much all sports recognise national records as well as world records.

That's purely my opinion, not based on ANY comments from Steve or his camp  :hand:

And I think he's in a different age cat to Kurt and Amanda, so he'd just be extending his own HAMR record?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: matthew on September 18, 2016, 09:39:07 pm
When I first look at steve's graph it looks like he has had some very short days, then I look more closely on this small screen and I spot the range of the y axis starts at 180 miles!!!

Jo, could you up the font size to match that of the other graphs or does the data need the width to be interpreted properly?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 21, 2016, 07:49:11 am
Day 129 (Amanda Coker) / Day 264 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 109 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 19 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Amanda is now within 30 miles of taking Billie Dovey's record following three consecutive days of 240 miles. Kajsa adds another three days of centuries and is on the cusp of an annual Eddington number of 100. Alicia, following a comparative rest day heads back to doing 100 milers. She is currently on an average of 96.4 miles per day, easily ahead of a Billie schedule but a little behind her personal target of 100 mpd.

Steve continues to alternate between longer and  (relatively) shorter days but remains just above his target average with a month average so far of 238.2 mpd.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_20.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/monthDay19.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Jack_P on September 21, 2016, 10:45:53 am
Kajsa has certainly stepped up here game this month after a couple of quiet months; as highlighted in the Centuries Challenge. Running  in homage to the original 1911 Cycling weekly magazine competition.
Steve of course has all but put it to bed with this months amazing effort.  :o

Yearly centuries table link  https://goo.gl/qqUuZt
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 22, 2016, 10:37:06 pm
Day 130 (Amanda Coker) / Day 265 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 110 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 20 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Amanda takes the women's record from Billie.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_21.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/monthDay20.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 25, 2016, 11:17:43 am
Day 133 (Amanda Coker) / Day 268 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 113 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 23 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

One slightly shorter day for Kajsa as she diverts to pick up her TWC Unsung Heroine Award (http://totalwomenscycling.com/lifestyle/twc-awards-2016-winners-unveiled-88943/#ou8DFbIlcryJRxLp.97) at the NEC, before returning to her September centuries. Amanda continues with her daily rides of largely around 240 miles pushing away from Billie's total and with Marcel Planes' 1911 record in her sights. Although slightly down on her 100mpd target Alicia makes decent progress above Billie Dovey record pace. She decides to ditch the recumbent as the cause of her knee/leg problems.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_24.png)

Steve has one week left on his month record attempt and currently 31 miles ahead of target with 5398 miles covered.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/monthDay23.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 28, 2016, 09:09:30 pm
Steve and Amanda's progress as of 27th September:

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/monthDay26.png)

Steve was 55 miles ahead of target by the end of the 27th. Not recorded above is the fact at midnight he was at Cambridge on his way home. He then rode another 47km, arriving home at 4am. This will get added to his total for the 28th when it is uploaded.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on September 29, 2016, 07:41:48 am
Day 137 (Amanda Coker) / Day 272 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 117 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 27 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Kajsa continues with her streak of 100s to push her annual Eddington number to 100. Just to prove she's not a slave to the numbers she rides one day of 99.6 miles aware that she stopped just short of 100. Amanda does what she does best, pushing out another few days of 240 miles, with only one day cut a little short due to stormy weather. Alicia is currently averaging around 96 mpd with some early starts to the day on quieter roads.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_09_28.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/eddington2016_09_28.png)


After Steve's long ride via Thetford finishing at 4am he starts the next day's riding by 10am and so keeps up a good recent average of around 244 miles per day. With only 3 more days of riding left for the month record, baring mishaps he should exceed his 7000 mile target. He is currently 72 miles ahead of pace with 6372 miles ridden since 2nd September.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/monthDay27.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hatler on September 29, 2016, 07:57:12 am
This continues to be completely outside my comprehension. (And I don't mean the graphs, they simply illustrate both beautifully and clearly what these people are doing, and therefore lead directly to even greater levels of incomprehension on my part.)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on September 29, 2016, 09:14:30 am
...and the continuing variety of the graphs is beautiful in itself, as well.

[Pauses to gaze again at today's set of three.]

Thanks Jo!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 01, 2016, 09:37:27 am
Steve passes the UMCA month record distance.

With one day to go, Steve passes the previous UMCA month record distance of 6680 miles held by André Goeritz. As of midnight at the end of day 29 Steve has ridden 6841 miles.

The unspoken competition between Steve and Amanda is very close. Steve's daily average of 235.9 miles compares with Amanda's of 236.1 but he has been gaining fast in the last few days. That difference represents only 6 miles over 29 days of riding. Who ends up riding further may well depend on the weather conditions faced by both riders. Storms in Florida have kept Amanda's distances a little shorter than she had been riding earlier in the month while East Anglian wind has been slowing Steve on some of his rides.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/monthDay29.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: hatler on October 01, 2016, 09:43:48 am
Huzzah !!!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on October 02, 2016, 05:53:57 pm
Riding 264 miles on his final day, Steve's 30 day record now complete with an (unofficial) total of 7105 miles. That's an average of 236.8 miles per day. Over the same period Amanda rode 7088 miles, averaging 236.3 mpd.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/monthDay30.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: clarion on October 02, 2016, 09:48:43 pm
Chapeau to both!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: inappropriate_bike on November 10, 2016, 11:24:32 am
Is there any chance of a graph update now we are another 6 weeks into the challenge?
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: red marley on November 10, 2016, 05:42:33 pm
Yes. Sorry for the long gap - too much other stuff going on.

Day 179 (Amanda Coker) / Day 314 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 159 (Alicia Searvogel

Amanda having weathered a number of tropical storms and hurricanes continues to make exceptional progress. She has ridden nearly 41000 miles with an average of over 228 mpd. Kajsa had a brief interruption due to the lurgy but has mostly been riding centuries taking her total to over 28,100 miles and an average of 89.6. She is currently 2678 miles ahead of Billie Dovey's pace with 1460 miles required before the end of the year to beat her record (an average 28.6 mpd). Alicia has recovered her mojo after a bit of a rougher patch and is currently averaging 94.4 mpd with a total of nearly 15000 miles.

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_11_10a.png)

(http://gicentre.org/oytt/images/oytt2016_11_10b.png)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: inappropriate_bike on November 10, 2016, 09:07:16 pm
Thank you! Makes it much clearer :-)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: mrcharly-YHT on November 16, 2016, 03:52:38 pm
As I understand things, the delightful Kajsa is likely to take the Guinness record.

Alicia, if she continues, will get a HaMR age-group record.

Amanda, if she continues at this rate,  will get HaMR age-group and overall record.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Cmiller on November 17, 2016, 03:36:00 pm

Amanda, if she continues at this rate,  will get HaMR age-group and overall record.

If and when Amanda's record(s) become certified by the UMCA, Guinness will do the same. She has this in writing.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: DaveE128 on January 20, 2017, 10:30:09 am
Hi Jo,

If you're able to do a graph update at some point with Kajsa's completed record and where Amanda is up to, I'd be interested to have a look! :)

Thanks! :)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: DaveE128 on March 30, 2017, 12:16:47 pm
Anyone know of any up to date visualisation of Amanda and Steve's progress?

Thanks!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: IJL on March 30, 2017, 12:51:46 pm
I have no graphs but after yesterdays ride TG had done 5620.1 and after the same number of days AC had done 5620.2.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: ianrauk on March 30, 2017, 01:04:57 pm
Anyone know of any up to date visualisation of Amanda and Steve's progress?

Thanks!

There's a good attempt over at at the other place
https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/235-miles-a-day-for-a-year-amanda-coker-challenge.214868/page-8#post-4741172
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: swampthing on June 07, 2017, 01:00:12 pm
I collected Steve's Strava-data from his attempts for a comparative overwiew:

After 95 days (June 6th) the daily average of Steve's 3rd attempt is 222 miles/ day. This puts him about 1580 miles above the "Godwin-line" (i.e. 205,7 miles/ day). Kurt Searvogel rode very similar daily averages in his best HAMR-months 2015 (May till July, November, December).

With daily averages between 220 (April 2017) and 225 miles (March 2017) Steve is cycling a bit longer and a bit faster than during his best months in 2015 (June and September 2015), when he rode around 215 miles/ day. Steve's best month ever so far is his HMMR-attempt in September 2016 when he reached 236 miles/ day, thanks to a slightly higher average speed.

While Steve's average daily speeds 2017 show considerable variation, monthly data leads to pretty homogeneous values of about 16 miles/ hour. The monthly average daily riding time is pretty stable, too, overall average is 13,9 hours/ day.

My impression:
Steve is in better shape than 2015 and he is on a good way to beat Tommy Godwin's 1939-mileage (75075, 205,7 miles/ day) and Kurt Searvogel's 2015 (76076, 208,4 miles/ day). But Kurt's setbacks 2015 and Steve's lower winter miles show that a comfortable lead can quickly vanish. I hope that Steve's anomalous daily routines with several sleepless nights do not overstretch his immune system.

Amanda Coker's 20106/2017-record of 86573 miles (237,2 miles/ day) is out of Steve's reach.

Month   hours/ day   miles/ h   miles/ day         
Jun 15      13,3      16,1      215,0
Sep 15      13,8      15,5      214,2
Sep 16      14,0      16,8      235,9
Mrz 17      14,2      15,9      224,7
Apr 17      13,6      16,1      219,7
Mai 17      13,8      16,2      222,7
Jun 17      14,2      15,6      222,4

(http://up.picr.de/29423919uo.jpg)



Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: swampthing on September 20, 2017, 02:20:18 pm
I collected Steve's Strava-data from his attempts for a comparative overwiew:

An update of my previous post:

200 days are over (=September 19th) and Steve's Strava-Data are as follows:

Month   hours/ day   miles/ h   miles/ day         
Mrz 17      14.2      15.9      224.7
Apr 17      13.6      16.1      219.7
Mai 17      13.8      16.2      222.7
Jun 17      13.5      16.0      216.1
Jul 17       13.4      15.9      213.0
Aug 17      12.2      16.1      197.4
Sep 17      11.3      15.0      170.6
Overall      13.2      16.0      211.2

This means: He is
+1100 miles above the Godwin-line
+ 548 miles above the Searvogel-line
- 5204 miles below the Coker-line

Daily averages required to beat
Godwin      199 miles/ day
Searvogel   205 miles/ day
Coker      269 miles/ day

September contains two days without riding (discarding those two days Steve's September Stats are 191 miles/ day at an average speed of 15.0 miles/ hour).

(http://up.picr.de/30412217fo.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: SoreTween on October 01, 2017, 07:49:30 pm
Thanks swampthing  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: swampthing on November 09, 2017, 10:53:43 am
I collected Steve's Strava-data from his attempts for a comparative overwiew:

Update after 250 days (= Novemer 9th):

         hours/ day   miles/ hour   miles/ day
Mrz 17      14.2      15.9         224.7
Apr 17      13.6      16.1         219.7
Mai 17      13.8      16.2         222.7
Jun 17      13.5      16.0         216.1
Jul 17      13.4      15.9         213.0
Aug 17      12.2      16.1         197.4
Sep 17      11.8      15.4         181.9
Okt 17      12.1      16.2         196.1
Nov 17      12.4      16.5         204.9
Overall      13.0      16.0         208.7


This means: He is
+ 744 miles above the Godwin-line
+ 58 miles above the Searvogel-line
- 7132 miles below the Coker-line

Daily averages required to beat
Godwin             199 miles/ day
Searvogel         208 miles/ day
Coker                299 miles/ day

(http://up.picr.de/30898842td.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: tonyh on November 09, 2017, 12:43:20 pm
Much appreciated, thankyou lots!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: MikeFromLFE on November 10, 2017, 08:18:29 am
Good stuff - very clear. Thanks


Tapatalk puts this signature here, not me!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: grams on November 10, 2017, 12:25:37 pm
This is a graph wot I made:
(http://www.fondantfancies.com/abrahamnov17.png)

The Y axis is miles/day. Red is Steve's overall average, blue is a moving average of the previous 14 days. The other three are Steve's target miles/day to beat those other records.

That gap between the red and green lines amounts to just 62 miles over the remainder of the attempt!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: swampthing on December 28, 2017, 11:01:31 pm
I collected Steve's Strava-data from his attempts for a comparative overwiew:

Update after 300 days (= December 28th):

Steve has ridden 61,653 miles in 300 days, a daily average of 205.5 miles. After several icy days and crashes in the second half of December, Day #300 is the first day when his mileage dropped below the Godwin-line (i. e. an average of 205.7 miles/ day).

         hours/ day   miles/ hour   miles/ day
Mrz 17      14.2      15.9         224.7
Apr 17      13.6      16.1         219.7
Mai 17      13.8      16.2         222.7
Jun 17      13.5      16.0         216.1
Jul 17       13.4      15.9         213.0
Aug 17      12.2      16.1         197.4
Sep 17      11.8      15.4         181.9
Okt 17      12.1      16.2         196.1
Nov 17      12.6      16.0         202.1
Dec 17      12.0      15.1         180.9
Overall      12.9      15.9         205.5


This means: He is
- 53 miles below the Godwin-line
- 875 miles below the Searvogel-line
- 9503 miles below the Coker-line

Daily averages required to beat
Godwin              206 miles/ day
Searvogel          222 miles/ day
Coker                383 miles/ day

(http://up.picr.de/31365296rw.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: swampthing on February 02, 2018, 11:00:31 am
I collected Steve's Strava-data from his attempts for a comparative overwiew:

Update after 335 days (= February 1st), 30 days to go:

Steve has ridden 68,219 miles in 335 days, a daily average of 203.6 miles.

         hours/ day   miles/ hour   miles/ day
Mar 17      14.2      15.9         224.7
Apr 17      13.6      16.1         219.7
May 17     13.8      16.2         222.7
Jun 17      13.5      16.0         216.1
Jul 17       13.4      15.9         213.0
Aug 17     12.2      16.1         197.4
Sep 17      11.8      15.4         181.9
Okt 17      12.1      16.2         196.1
Nov 17      12.6      16.0         202.1
Dec 17      12.0      15.0         180.0
Jan 18      13.0      14.4         187.2
Overall      12.9      15.8         203.6

This puts him
- 676 miles below the Godwin-line
- 1604 miles below the Searvogel-line
- 11238 miles below the Coker-line

Daily averages required to beat
Godwin              228 miles/ day
Searvogel          262 miles/ day
Coker                612 miles/ day

It is interesting to see how Steve’s description on facebook deviates from these recordings:

„- … My year record never went to plan. I started very well, riding 95 hours a week
-  … it was that in the 2nd month, […], my mileage was dropping
- … By the 3rd month I reduced my hours of riding to about 85 a week
- … thinking my speed would continue to increase“

Neither his claimed dropping of mileage in the 2nd month nor his reduction of hours in the 3rd month can be seen in the data. The first 4 to 5 months all produced pretty equally well results. Average speed was very and riding time pretty stable. At the end of July he was more than 2000 miles above the Godwin-line and 1600 miles ahead of Searvogel. After these five good months his mileage started dropping below the Godwin-line.

(http://up.picr.de/31703551uq.jpg)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: toontra on February 02, 2018, 02:40:05 pm
Excellent stuff, Swampy!  Really appreciate these summaries that put all the various numbers into clear perspective.
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: zigzag on February 02, 2018, 03:45:41 pm
Steve will have clocked higher mileage in three years than anyone else before, mind boggling! (has anyone got the sums, provided he reaches Godwin's target next month?)
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Laid Back Rich on February 02, 2018, 04:42:05 pm
that could be a new record category, and may never be challenged!
Title: Re: Visualizing the OYTT
Post by: Exit Stage Left on February 02, 2018, 05:15:53 pm
That question was asked at the end of his first three years.

Quote
@steve_abraham74
 9h9 hours ago

According to @Strava I have ridden 156,415 miles since I began #HAMR on 1st Jan 2015 with 1st (2) attempt(s) training and my 2017/18 attempt.
An average of 52,138 a year, not including today's ride.

So an average of 1,000 miles + per week, for three years.