I had a steel TT bike custom built to my measurements a few years ago, and it turns out the top tube is identical to my "perfect" top tube length which I'd arrived at by trial and error over many years. So, I'd go for the one that is closest to top length to your most comfortable road bike.
Having said that, many carbon TT frames I've looked at come up rather short, putting me on an M, which would leave only a couple of cm of seatpost showing.