Author Topic: What will the weather be like?  (Read 4733 times)

What will the weather be like?
« on: August 11, 2019, 03:52:11 pm »
Yes I know it's a long way out but Meteo France is painting an interesting picture for Sunday/Monday - warm wet and windy.... :thumbsup:

http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/rambouillet/78120

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2019, 04:18:47 pm »
The weather's hardly much of a concern for those lucky enough to be riding hotels on wheels, know what I mean...

 ;D
You're only as successful as your last 1200...

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2019, 04:49:05 pm »
 ;D Hence the  :thumbsup:, but rain does sting you know!

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2019, 06:18:11 pm »
Velomobile = mobile container of water.

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2019, 06:24:27 pm »
It does seem to be settling into conditions favouring those from more northerly and / or wet climates. But plenty of time for it to change.

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2019, 06:48:08 pm »
How much can a koala bear?

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2019, 06:49:08 pm »
Dampness will play havoc with those out for a Saturday meal, or those camping, if Ventusky is right.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=48.7;1.4;5&l=rain-3h&t=20190817/2100
If one wanted a more optimistic forecast, look no further than yr.no
https://www.yr.no/place/France/Centre/Dreux/long.html

marcusjb

  • Full of bon courage.
    • Occasional wittering
Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2019, 06:54:31 pm »
There will be some weather I am sure - what I love is that there are such wildly different experiences with folks spread out across 600km of France, some out there for 45 hours and some for 90 hours.

As Phil says, it's looking like it will favour us NW Europeans (and those from NW USA and other damp, windy, not too warm places!).

It only a few weeks on from record breaking temperatures across Europe; that could have made for a real reversal of DNF rates with those from the warmer climes suddenly in their element.

Ah well - unless anything extreme pops up in the long-range forecasts, then there's not much different I will do to any other long ride in summer in NW Europe.
Right! What's next?

Ooooh. That sounds like a daft idea.  I am in!

FifeingEejit

  • Not Small
Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2019, 10:55:36 pm »
Still too early to get a good idea really; foreacst is only really getting reliable about 3 days before still.
Only yesterday I was looking at a wind and sea state forecast that would have made my ferry on Thursday night "Interesting" (Moderate to Rough) whereas it's now forecast to only be "Slight to moderate" with a brisk constant westerly which on a big stabilised boat should be alright.

That splodge of rain forecast in both the YR.no and GFS forecasts (Ventusky and XC weather's rendering of it agrees) shows the variation between European developed models, the Germans (GFS) have that spodge of heavy rain passing over in the morning, the Norwegians have it in the evening.
The Canadians (GEM) have it passing over a tad further north, drowning Southampton and London instead.

The BBCs current weather providers have decided we're just going to get soaked constantly





redfalo

  • known as Olaf in the real world
    • Cycling Intelligence
Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2019, 11:15:58 pm »
Agree - it's way too early to tell. I'm still looking at the forecasts already.... :facepalm:

Actually, what I keep the closest eye on are the minimum temps at night. As we speak, YR.no forecasts just 10 degrees in Brittany... So it makes sense to take some warm stuff......

https://www.yr.no/place/France/Brittany/Loud%C3%A9ac/
If you can't convince, confuse.

https://cycling-intelligence.com/ - my blog on cycling, long distances and short ones

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2019, 11:23:04 pm »
Agree - it's way too early to tell. I'm still looking at the forecasts already.... :facepalm:

Actually, what I keep the closest eye on are the minimum temps at night. As we speak, YR.no forecasts just 10 degrees in Brittany... So it makes sense to take some warm stuff......

https://www.yr.no/place/France/Brittany/Loud%C3%A9ac/

10 degrees is balmy for Brittany. I'll leave the longs at home.

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2019, 06:29:05 am »
Still too early to get a good idea really; foreacst is only really getting reliable about 3 days before still.


And even then they get it wrong - even in France!

I recently cycled from Dieppe to Nandax (Nr Lyon) and back, the forecast less than 12 hrs earlier from Meteo France said showers and a westerly wind, I got off the ferry and it was a southerly, after a few km it started to rain, it rained for 11hrs solid with a strong southerly wind which eventually as the front passed over the wind veered to a westerly and dropped, then went to a northerly and dropped completely.

Return ride was as forecast though sun and temps up to 38 degC.

T42

  • Tea tank
Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2019, 07:52:32 am »
Rain's inconvenient but I reckon the wind is going to be the main factor, on Sunday at least. Average 20 kph WSW gusting 55-60 is going to sicken an awful lot of people.

Re the forecasting, the atmosphere is more turbulent than it used to be so it's going to get less & less reliable as time goes on. Meteo France also tends to look on the dire side since 1999, when they failed to predict the devastation we suffered from two hurricanes in 24 hours.  For Friday evening we were threatened with thunderstorms with 80 kph gusts but in the end we got a bit of rain and it rumbled a bit over the hills out back.
I've dusted all those old bottles and set them up straight.

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2019, 09:16:35 am »
Rain's inconvenient but I reckon the wind is going to be the main factor, on Sunday at least. Average 20 kph WSW gusting 55-60 is going to sicken an awful lot of people.
You need to find a more optimistic forecast. BBC has no mention of 60km/h gusts, just a light breeze. That is the one I am going with.

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2019, 09:29:02 am »
Rain's inconvenient but I reckon the wind is going to be the main factor, on Sunday at least. Average 20 kph WSW gusting 55-60 is going to sicken an awful lot of people.
You need to find a more optimistic forecast. BBC has no mention of 60km/h gusts, just a light breeze. That is the one I am going with.

Weeronline is also quite optimistic.

FifeingEejit

  • Not Small
Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2019, 11:23:56 am »
Rain's inconvenient but I reckon the wind is going to be the main factor, on Sunday at least. Average 20 kph WSW gusting 55-60 is going to sicken an awful lot of people.
You need to find a more optimistic forecast. BBC has no mention of 60km/h gusts, just a light breeze. That is the one I am going with.

Something to remember is that day time temperatures are given as "Highs" and night time as "Lows".
If it doesn't drop below 10 degrees as GFS forecast I'll probably only need my warmers for bivvying.

ICON and GFS are disagreeing significantly on what this wednesday will be like.

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2019, 05:19:24 pm »
Still too early to get a good idea really; foreacst is only really getting reliable about 3 days before still.

My opinion is that the forecast temperature will tend to stabilise about a week out, but the other elements of a forecast take longer to settle.  Could be a rather damp Sat afternoon but ride down is forecast to be dry right now.

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2019, 05:27:05 pm »
The bike I am riding has no mudguards.
It will rain.
Sorry, but Hard Luck.

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2019, 05:29:56 pm »
No doubt your bike has wind chimes as well  ;D

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2019, 05:36:31 pm »
I'm thinking that PBP would be a good opportunity for me to learn how to play the bagpipes.

Kim

  • Timelord
Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2019, 05:40:19 pm »
I'm thinking that PBP would be a good opportunity for me to learn how to play the bagpipes.

Are you doing it on a unicycle then?

Careful, Kim. Your sarcasm's showing...

Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2019, 05:44:05 pm »
No. I think unicycles are against the rules anyway as machines must be chain driven IIRC (after someone did it on a scooter in 2003)

T42

  • Tea tank
Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2019, 08:32:34 am »
Chain-driven? No problem (for some).

I've dusted all those old bottles and set them up straight.

Zed43

  • prefers UK hills over Dutch mountains
Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #23 on: August 13, 2019, 11:06:05 am »
No doubt your bike has wind chimes as well  ;D
My bike whistles :-) (still on the todo list: put some electricians tape over the holes in the aero bars)

quixoticgeek

  • Mostly Harmless
Re: What will the weather be like?
« Reply #24 on: August 13, 2019, 11:07:09 am »
No doubt your bike has wind chimes as well  ;D
My bike whistles :-) (still on the todo list: put some electricians tape over the holes in the aero bars)

My bike makes a whistling noise in cross winds. It's the wind through the front disc rotor...

J
--
Beer, bikes, and backpacking
http://b.42q.eu/