Author Topic: Coronavirus and Audax  (Read 32983 times)

zigzag

  • unfuckwithable
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #575 on: March 23, 2020, 05:12:14 pm »
for the accurate data set, countries should be testing every single person every time they interact with someone. that is not gonna happen. france looks like a good comparable country (similar population, close geographically and only ~5 days ahead of us), looking at the death toll, uk's should double (again, let's hope not) by sat/sun.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #576 on: March 23, 2020, 05:23:32 pm »
countries should be testing every single person every time they interact with someone

That would be nice but the UK's current test capacity (well, last time I saw it reported) was only 4000 tests per day.

With 560,000 frontline NHS workers it means it could test each of them every 140 days (assuming no-one else is tested).

To test everyone in the UK at that rate would take just under 46 years.

Whilst so few tests can be performed every day there is little point worrying about testing[1]. If the cases continue to grow at the rate they are it will only be a week or two before the number of new cases each day outstrips the current testing capacity.

I've no idea why the UK's testing capacity is so low compared to other countries.

Also, the current test (for the virus itself) takes 3-5 days to return a result. Someone who gets a negative result could be positive by the time they receive their result.

Someone who has had the virus (possibly entirely asymptomatically) could return a negative on the 'is the virus present' test. AIUI there is no high capacity antibody test to tell whether someone has had the virus or not and whether they display immunity (to the current strain[2]). It's also unknown for how long someone would still likely to be contagious even if they test positive on a suitable antibody test - they would need to perform both live virus and antibody tests together and there's still a delay for the results in which time that person is in limbo (not so good if they are a frontline NHS worker).

It really isn't as simple as "we just need to test more" (although that is obviously true).

1. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be throwing resources at it to ramp it up.
2. If it mutates significantly then all bets are off.
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

StevieB

  • I'm an embarrassment to my bicycle!
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #577 on: March 23, 2020, 05:44:30 pm »
This is what happens to the death rate once the virus gets going (and dead bodies don't require much testing!):



ALL countries in the west have an accelerating, exponential rise.


THE VIRUS DOES NOT CARE WHO YOU ARE!


Countries like Korea, Japan, Singapore, etc: not hard to image they got a scare from SARS and had the small amount of intelligence to go "If it happened once, it can happen again..." Hence they had a plan, they knew to take immediate action and had the discipline to follow through.

Meanwhile our enlightened leaders, dispute a longer warning time, went: "Let's not be too rash, let's not tank the economy for no reason, let's not cause a panic, let's see how this pans out..." Hence we are 'enjoying' a different outcome.

It is also clear from China that lockdown works, if it is enforced, and you allow for a lengthy time delay.
It may be self-flagellation, but it still hurts

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #578 on: March 23, 2020, 05:49:39 pm »
I think that chart shows a more meaningful picture. The Koreans did something very different (exhaustive testing and extensive tracing and isolation) from what we are doing to earn their favourable curve.  We have done less than other countries in Europe and are likely to be rewarded with a worse curve. 

I can't find it now, but I saw something else earlier which estimated the percentage of cases which each country had been able to detect. 

It estimated that, while Germany is likely to have detected 50-100% of its cases, the UK is more like 5-10%.  That means that we most likely have more cases than Germany.  Given we have more deaths, that wouldn't be terribly surprising.

Martin

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #579 on: March 23, 2020, 05:55:42 pm »
No Boris flanked by his "experts" tonight; now all go home quietly (if you are at work) don't post pictures of crowded Tube trains / cyclists in Richmond Park (who were singled out in one article yesterday even though there were many more pedestrians) don't try and pick up a few tinnies / supper in a big store (use a small local one instead they need the business more)

and we might escape lockdown for at least another day!!

Martin

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #580 on: March 23, 2020, 06:08:30 pm »
or not

18:06
Breaking
Prime minister to address the nation
The BBC's political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, says Prime Minister Boris Johnson will address the nation at 20:30 GMT tonight.
This sounds like it will be different from the normal daily government briefing

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #581 on: March 23, 2020, 06:57:59 pm »
countries should be testing every single person every time they interact with someone

That would be nice but the UK's current test capacity (well, last time I saw it reported) was only 4000 tests per day.

With 560,000 frontline NHS workers it means it could test each of them every 140 days (assuming no-one else is tested).

To test everyone in the UK at that rate would take just under 46 years.

Whilst so few tests can be performed every day there is little point worrying about testing[1]. If the cases continue to grow at the rate they are it will only be a week or two before the number of new cases each day outstrips the current testing capacity.

I've no idea why the UK's testing capacity is so low compared to other countries.

Also, the current test (for the virus itself) takes 3-5 days to return a result. Someone who gets a negative result could be positive by the time they receive their result.

Someone who has had the virus (possibly entirely asymptomatically) could return a negative on the 'is the virus present' test. AIUI there is no high capacity antibody test to tell whether someone has had the virus or not and whether they display immunity (to the current strain[2]). It's also unknown for how long someone would still likely to be contagious even if they test positive on a suitable antibody test - they would need to perform both live virus and antibody tests together and there's still a delay for the results in which time that person is in limbo (not so good if they are a frontline NHS worker).

It really isn't as simple as "we just need to test more" (although that is obviously true).

1. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be throwing resources at it to ramp it up.
2. If it mutates significantly then all bets are off.
The U.K. has actually done a relatively high amount of testing 64,000 so far with capacity at 6000 per day. The testing capacity is due to go up to 25,000 per day. There is also a self administered antibody test on the way that will tell you if have had it already. It takes around 10 minutes (but might come up as negative if you have it but are in early stages). There is hospital testing and there is a bit of random testing of people without symptoms as well. With this amount of information a number of infected people (including asymptomatic) can be calculated.


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caerau

  • SR x 3 - PBP fail but 1090 km - hey - not too bad
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #582 on: March 23, 2020, 07:19:00 pm »
The U.K. has actually done a relatively high amount of testing 64,000 so far with capacity at 6000 per day.



On what planet is this 'relatively high'?  Compared to whom?


The testing capacity is due to go up to 25,000 per day.
I shall believe that when I see it.  Johnson said 250,000 a day the other day too - you can believe him if you want.  I don't.
It's a reverse Elvis thing.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #583 on: March 23, 2020, 07:28:24 pm »
Johnson said 250,000 a day the other day too

And still 268 days to test everyone in the UK at that rate.
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #584 on: March 23, 2020, 07:34:14 pm »
The U.K. has actually done a relatively high amount of testing 64,000 so far with capacity at 6000 per day.



On what planet is this 'relatively high'?  Compared to whom?


The testing capacity is due to go up to 25,000 per day.
I shall believe that when I see it.  Johnson said 250,000 a day the other day too - you can believe him if you want.  I don't.
Compared to other countries at the same stage. If you take the number of tests done and divide by the number of deaths.

If Boris said 250,000 that was a mistake unless he was referring to the forthcoming antibody test. I think he had a 0 in the wrong place. The capacity is going up to 25,000.


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caerau

  • SR x 3 - PBP fail but 1090 km - hey - not too bad
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #585 on: March 23, 2020, 07:41:38 pm »
Where are you getting your figures from?  Sorry but I'm naturally sceptical, I'd be interested to see the source.


Because most other countries and including the WHO have been vocally critical of our testing regimen.


Also the death rate is *highly* misleading as discussed only a few posts above.  But additionally to that-  it depends on what you count as a COVID-19 death too.  Different countries are counting these differently - if you take away the 'with underlying health conditions' people away from Italy's total it looks like almost no-one has died from it. 




Oh and it wasn't a mistake, I watched him say it, we're going to go to 10,100 a day, then 25,000 -  and indeed 250,000.  He didn't miss out the 25,000 figure.
It's a reverse Elvis thing.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #586 on: March 23, 2020, 07:52:19 pm »
Also the death rate is *highly* misleading as discussed only a few posts above.  But additionally to that-  it depends on what you count as a COVID-19 death too.  Different countries are counting these differently - if you take away the 'with underlying health conditions' people away from Italy's total it looks like almost no-one has died from it. 

Eh? Sure there are co-morbidities but the point is that this disease is killing people earlier than they would have died from those underlying health conditions.

Also, even if it only attacks those who have these specific underlying health conditions (and it runs rumpant) it's still going to kill hundreds of thousands more than would have died without it. 1.5 million people have been notified as being at risk today, so they're talking about 1/6 of those will may die if it goes unchecked.

Put it another way. There are usually ~600,000 deaths in the UK each year. If this goes unchecked there will be over 1,000,000 deaths in 2020. That's a hell of a blip.
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

Jaded

  • The Codfather
  • Formerly known as Jaded
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #587 on: March 23, 2020, 07:55:51 pm »
Yeah, but next year will be lower  :P
If you don't like your democracy, vote against it.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #588 on: March 23, 2020, 07:56:42 pm »
 Busy day tomorrow I feel.


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Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #589 on: March 23, 2020, 08:00:09 pm »
Yeah, but next year will be lower  :P

Bit like pub occupancy on Mothers Day next year

Martin

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #590 on: March 23, 2020, 08:13:30 pm »
Yeah, but next year will be lower  :P

Bit like pub occupancy on Mothers Day next year

you think they will have reopened by then?

caerau

  • SR x 3 - PBP fail but 1090 km - hey - not too bad
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #591 on: March 23, 2020, 08:23:21 pm »
Also the death rate is *highly* misleading as discussed only a few posts above.  But additionally to that-  it depends on what you count as a COVID-19 death too.  Different countries are counting these differently - if you take away the 'with underlying health conditions' people away from Italy's total it looks like almost no-one has died from it. 

Eh? Sure there are co-morbidities but the point is that this disease is killing people earlier than they would have died from those underlying health conditions.



That's exactly the point I was trying to make.  Sorry if that wasn't clear.


Someone published some tosh the other day claiming that only about 12 people in Italy had died from it the other day, taking away all those who had 'underlying health conditions'. 
How are Germany counting their mortalities compared to Italy?




I also think that claiming our testing is 'not bad' compared to others is like polishing turds.  Just cos they're shitter doesn't make us not shit.


Only about 2-3 countries have done the testing properly (S. Korea, Singapore are two) and they've done massively extensive testing, tracing and isolating.
It's a reverse Elvis thing.

Cudzoziemiec

  • Waking up now, put the kettle on!
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #592 on: March 23, 2020, 08:59:46 pm »
Yeah, but next year will be lower  :P

Bit like pub occupancy on Mothers Day next year

you think they will have reopened by then?
Reopen in August, reclose in November. It will align with the grouse shooting season, or similar. And Randonneur Round the Year will become Randonneur Through The Quarter.
Days become simply the spaces between dreams, spaces between the shifting floors of time...

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #593 on: March 23, 2020, 09:04:17 pm »
Where are you getting your figures from?  Sorry but I'm naturally sceptical, I'd be interested to see the source.

Can't say where anyone else gets their numbers, but this seems a reliable source based on information available. 
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

caerau

  • SR x 3 - PBP fail but 1090 km - hey - not too bad
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #594 on: March 24, 2020, 07:40:29 am »
Where are you getting your figures from?  Sorry but I'm naturally sceptical, I'd be interested to see the source.

Can't say where anyone else gets their numbers, but this seems a reliable source based on information available. 
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing


Thanks. 


Yes tests per capita is an important measure there.  Also there is also the point that if you test quickly and isolate clusters quickly then you have no need to do so much testing as you perhaps get it under control more quickly. Note Japan is quite low there but it has been quick and targetted to limit the spread (I believe, this is from memory).  If you do a very high number of tests too late, then it is much less worthwhile.  You *could* test all the dead bodies and get a high number eventually.
It's a reverse Elvis thing.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #595 on: March 24, 2020, 08:21:30 am »
During the initial containment phase we were testing everyone that showed symptoms or had been exposed or come in from an infected area (with the quarantine centres in Liverpool and Milton Keynes)

Once the cat is out of the bag that does not work any more so you have take steps to reduce spread assuming it is in the general populace. Testing then moves to measurement of infection rates, in particular trends in numbers needing icu beds.

Once the numbers drop to less the 50 icu admissions per week we will move back to containment.

What works in one country might not in another.


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Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #596 on: March 24, 2020, 08:24:30 am »

What works in one country might not in another.


Why not?

citoyen

  • Cat 6 Racer
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #597 on: March 24, 2020, 08:31:59 am »

What works in one country might not in another.


Why not?

I guess it's not so much that the methods don't work but that there isn't the political will/competence to implement them effectively.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #598 on: March 24, 2020, 08:32:35 am »

What works in one country might not in another.


Why not?

Behavioural differences
Demographic differences
Geographical differences
Differences in living situations (e.g. places with grandparents living with families vs those that tend not to)
Differences in healthcare capacity
Differences in stock / availability of PPE
Lots of other reasons too I'm sure

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #599 on: March 24, 2020, 08:38:20 am »

What works in one country might not in another.


Why not?
There are many reasons, geographical, demographic, social and legal.


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